24/02/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

It's a bit unusual, the weather situation at the moment

in that we're pretty sure we know what's going to happen

for the next couple of days and for the start of next week.

It's what happens in between, particularly so on Friday,

that there's some uncertainty.

More on that in a moment, though, because the sure thing at the moment

is that most having frosty mornings followed by sunny skies by day.

There are a few showers around on Wednesday

across northern Scotland and in Northern Ireland,

but for most, it'll be dry and bright with some winter sunshine.

And after we start below freezing, well below in some places,

we're up to 4 to 8 Celsius for most come the afternoon.

Colder across northern Scotland,

and feeling significantly colder because of that brisk wind

which continues to bring snow showers

across northern Scotland on Wednesday evening.

Potentially, it could be icy here.

A bit more cloud drifting southwards overnight across England and Wales,

but for most, it's clear and, again, it's going to be cold.

A widespread hard frost for Thursday morning.

Some mist and fog - that should clear away.

Again, through the day, a sprinkling of showers,

chiefly in northern Scotland.

For most, it's another dry, sunny day.

And, again, after we start below freezing,

we're up to 4 to 6 or 7 come the afternoon.

Feeling quite pleasant, actually, in the sunshine, out of the wind.

Friday is again, by and large, a dry, bright day

with a cold, cold start.

But there are complications in the west.

Lots more cloud here, and the risk of some wet weather,

particularly across the south-west.

It is just a risk at the moment,

because there's a lot of uncertainty

about which of these two areas of low pressure develops.

If it's the one to the south-west, as I say,

potentially some heavy rain here.

The reason why there's uncertainty about these areas of low pressure

is actually tied in to this area of low pressure in North America,

which is intensifying at the moment.

It's quite a beast, this, bringing some heavy snow

and strong winds across the north-east of Canada in particular.

But for us, the crucial thing is as that low drives northwards,

it really takes some warm air northwards

through the mid-Atlantic, up towards Greenland.

And it's the boundary between the warm and cold air

that drives the jet stream.

Instead of the jet stream driving straight across the Atlantic,

it's going north with that warm air,

before, like a rollercoaster, it drives southwards rapidly

to the west of the UK,

picking up those areas of low pressure, possibly,

and intensifying them.

Uncertainty, then, about Friday, but we are pretty confident

that by Saturday, as the jet stream drives southwards,

where we've got this kink,

the low-pressure system will be sitting in here,

bringing, potentially, quite a wet weekend

to parts of southern France and Spain.

For us, with a low drifting to the south, lots of isobars on the chart.

It's going to be a windy day,

and that wind will be coming in from the east,

feeling bitter, certainly across England and Wales.

For Scotland and Northern Ireland, the winds are lighter,

so here it's a similar sort of day on Saturday.

Again, many places dry, some showers in the east.

But for England and Wales,

these are the sort of temperatures we're seeing for the next few days,

but add on the wind, it will feel a lot colder this weekend.

Into the early part of next week

and low pressure continues to meander across central Europe.

High pressure building in across the UK,

so a dry start to the working week next week.

Notice this bit of blue. It's a weather front

which will try and topple in against the higher pressure

and could introduce a bit of rain.

Uncertainty about that, but the overall feeling

is that higher pressure will then move back to the UK.

So, for next week, it's staying on the cold side.

A sunny start. Frosty start, too.

A brief bit of wet weather around

before things probably turn drier again

around the middle part of the week.

Lots going on. We'll, as always, keep you updated.