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A week is a long time not just in politics, | 0:00:03 | 0:00:05 | |
but in weather forecasting sometimes, | 0:00:05 | 0:00:07 | |
and the indications for the end of this week have changed somewhat | 0:00:07 | 0:00:10 | |
compared with, say, 24 hours ago. | 0:00:10 | 0:00:12 | |
More of that in a moment. | 0:00:12 | 0:00:13 | |
Currently, we have winds coming in off the Atlantic, | 0:00:13 | 0:00:16 | |
carrying these lumps of cloud. | 0:00:16 | 0:00:17 | |
It's a fairly cool and showery set-up at the moment. | 0:00:17 | 0:00:20 | |
We saw some heavy downpours during the course of Monday | 0:00:20 | 0:00:23 | |
and some vivid skies as well, just like this one taken from Normanton. | 0:00:23 | 0:00:26 | |
I'd expect further cloudscapes just like this over the next few days | 0:00:26 | 0:00:30 | |
with that mixture of sunshine and showers continuing. | 0:00:30 | 0:00:32 | |
First thing, most of the showers | 0:00:32 | 0:00:34 | |
will be across the more western parts of England and Wales. | 0:00:34 | 0:00:36 | |
They'll be tracking their way further eastwards | 0:00:36 | 0:00:39 | |
during the course of the day. | 0:00:39 | 0:00:40 | |
Some heavy ones developing, as we'll see in a moment. | 0:00:40 | 0:00:42 | |
Whereas further north and west across the country, | 0:00:42 | 0:00:45 | |
relatively few showers for Northern Ireland and Scotland. | 0:00:45 | 0:00:47 | |
A reasonable afternoon to come. | 0:00:47 | 0:00:49 | |
The odd shower around, but plenty of sunshine. | 0:00:49 | 0:00:51 | |
Not spectacularly warm by any stretch of the imagination. | 0:00:51 | 0:00:54 | |
16 or 17 degrees. But in the sunshine, it shouldn't feel too bad. | 0:00:54 | 0:00:56 | |
The sun pretty strong at this time of year. | 0:00:56 | 0:00:59 | |
After a showery start to the day across parts of Wales | 0:00:59 | 0:01:01 | |
and western England, increasing amounts of sunshine here, | 0:01:01 | 0:01:03 | |
particularly towards the west coast. | 0:01:03 | 0:01:05 | |
Across the Midlands, East Anglia, and the south-east, | 0:01:05 | 0:01:07 | |
it'll turn increasingly showery through the afternoon. | 0:01:07 | 0:01:10 | |
Some heavy, slow-moving thundery downpours. Watch out for those. | 0:01:10 | 0:01:13 | |
They'll linger on into the night across some south-eastern areas | 0:01:13 | 0:01:16 | |
before they gradually fade away | 0:01:16 | 0:01:17 | |
through the early hours of Wednesday. | 0:01:17 | 0:01:19 | |
Still the odd one left behind at dawn. | 0:01:19 | 0:01:21 | |
It'll be a fresh start to the day on Wednesday, quite cool. | 0:01:21 | 0:01:24 | |
But the sun will allow those temperatures to bounce back. | 0:01:24 | 0:01:27 | |
Another hit and miss day of sunshine and showers. | 0:01:27 | 0:01:30 | |
No two days exactly the same. | 0:01:30 | 0:01:32 | |
The distribution of those showers will differ. | 0:01:32 | 0:01:34 | |
It won't be all that warm. | 0:01:34 | 0:01:35 | |
And certainly overnight through the week ahead, | 0:01:35 | 0:01:38 | |
temperatures will be well down into single figures. | 0:01:38 | 0:01:40 | |
But with some sunshine, shouldn't feel too bad by day. | 0:01:40 | 0:01:44 | |
And I've got my hopes pinned on Thursday | 0:01:44 | 0:01:46 | |
as being probably one of the best days of the week, | 0:01:46 | 0:01:49 | |
as this little ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. | 0:01:49 | 0:01:52 | |
That'll tend to kill off most of the showers. So a largely dry day. | 0:01:52 | 0:01:56 | |
I'm not ruling out the odd shower, but most places will be dry. | 0:01:56 | 0:01:59 | |
And with light winds and some sunshine, shouldn't feel too bad. | 0:01:59 | 0:02:02 | |
The plan was for that ridge of high pressure | 0:02:02 | 0:02:04 | |
to build in across the country | 0:02:04 | 0:02:06 | |
and bring a drier, warmer end to the week. | 0:02:06 | 0:02:08 | |
It's not looking so straightforward now. | 0:02:08 | 0:02:10 | |
Further fronts pushing in across the more northern | 0:02:10 | 0:02:13 | |
and western areas in particular on Friday, | 0:02:13 | 0:02:15 | |
bringing some outbreaks of rain. | 0:02:15 | 0:02:17 | |
Some fairly muggy air, too. | 0:02:17 | 0:02:18 | |
The jet stream looks as if it's going to start to head its way | 0:02:18 | 0:02:22 | |
back down across the country as we end of the week. | 0:02:22 | 0:02:25 | |
And that does mean a significant change in the story | 0:02:25 | 0:02:28 | |
compared with what Tom was saying, for example, yesterday. | 0:02:28 | 0:02:30 | |
It's going to start to steer the fronts further south and east | 0:02:30 | 0:02:34 | |
across the country. | 0:02:34 | 0:02:35 | |
This front, we think, as we end the week, will be quite significant. | 0:02:35 | 0:02:38 | |
Ahead of that, some reasonably warm air. | 0:02:38 | 0:02:41 | |
Behind that, cooler conditions, | 0:02:41 | 0:02:42 | |
and along that frontal zone, some outbreaks of rain. | 0:02:42 | 0:02:45 | |
So, don't take this chart too literally. | 0:02:45 | 0:02:48 | |
The exact distribution of the rain and the timing | 0:02:48 | 0:02:51 | |
could well change again. | 0:02:51 | 0:02:53 | |
But rain heading in towards the more southern and eastern areas | 0:02:53 | 0:02:55 | |
as we go into Saturday, displacing that mild air, | 0:02:55 | 0:02:58 | |
and something a bit fresher following on behind. | 0:02:58 | 0:03:01 | |
Big question marks, then, through this weekend. | 0:03:01 | 0:03:03 | |
It does look as if that front will clear through. | 0:03:03 | 0:03:05 | |
Perhaps another set of fronts pushing in off the Atlantic | 0:03:05 | 0:03:08 | |
to the more northern and western parts of the UK | 0:03:08 | 0:03:10 | |
during the course of Sunday. | 0:03:10 | 0:03:11 | |
But watch this, because the story could change again. | 0:03:11 | 0:03:14 | |
And we're going to keep a very close eye on things. | 0:03:14 | 0:03:17 | |
Through the early part of next week, | 0:03:17 | 0:03:18 | |
it does look as if north-western areas will see most of the rain. | 0:03:18 | 0:03:21 | |
Driest across the south-east. Breezy at times. | 0:03:21 | 0:03:24 | |
But the heat does look like to be staying on hold for the time being. | 0:03:24 | 0:03:29 | |
I'll update you again tomorrow. | 0:03:29 | 0:03:30 |