12/07/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead


12/07/2016

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A week is a long time not just in politics,

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but in weather forecasting sometimes,

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and the indications for the end of this week have changed somewhat

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compared with, say, 24 hours ago.

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More of that in a moment.

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Currently, we have winds coming in off the Atlantic,

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carrying these lumps of cloud.

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It's a fairly cool and showery set-up at the moment.

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We saw some heavy downpours during the course of Monday

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and some vivid skies as well, just like this one taken from Normanton.

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I'd expect further cloudscapes just like this over the next few days

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with that mixture of sunshine and showers continuing.

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First thing, most of the showers

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will be across the more western parts of England and Wales.

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They'll be tracking their way further eastwards

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during the course of the day.

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Some heavy ones developing, as we'll see in a moment.

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Whereas further north and west across the country,

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relatively few showers for Northern Ireland and Scotland.

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A reasonable afternoon to come.

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The odd shower around, but plenty of sunshine.

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Not spectacularly warm by any stretch of the imagination.

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16 or 17 degrees. But in the sunshine, it shouldn't feel too bad.

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The sun pretty strong at this time of year.

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After a showery start to the day across parts of Wales

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and western England, increasing amounts of sunshine here,

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particularly towards the west coast.

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Across the Midlands, East Anglia, and the south-east,

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it'll turn increasingly showery through the afternoon.

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Some heavy, slow-moving thundery downpours. Watch out for those.

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They'll linger on into the night across some south-eastern areas

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before they gradually fade away

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through the early hours of Wednesday.

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Still the odd one left behind at dawn.

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It'll be a fresh start to the day on Wednesday, quite cool.

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But the sun will allow those temperatures to bounce back.

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Another hit and miss day of sunshine and showers.

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No two days exactly the same.

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The distribution of those showers will differ.

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It won't be all that warm.

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And certainly overnight through the week ahead,

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temperatures will be well down into single figures.

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But with some sunshine, shouldn't feel too bad by day.

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And I've got my hopes pinned on Thursday

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as being probably one of the best days of the week,

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as this little ridge of high pressure builds in from the west.

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That'll tend to kill off most of the showers. So a largely dry day.

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I'm not ruling out the odd shower, but most places will be dry.

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And with light winds and some sunshine, shouldn't feel too bad.

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The plan was for that ridge of high pressure

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to build in across the country

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and bring a drier, warmer end to the week.

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It's not looking so straightforward now.

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Further fronts pushing in across the more northern

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and western areas in particular on Friday,

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bringing some outbreaks of rain.

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Some fairly muggy air, too.

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The jet stream looks as if it's going to start to head its way

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back down across the country as we end of the week.

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And that does mean a significant change in the story

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compared with what Tom was saying, for example, yesterday.

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It's going to start to steer the fronts further south and east

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across the country.

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This front, we think, as we end the week, will be quite significant.

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Ahead of that, some reasonably warm air.

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Behind that, cooler conditions,

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and along that frontal zone, some outbreaks of rain.

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So, don't take this chart too literally.

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The exact distribution of the rain and the timing

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could well change again.

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But rain heading in towards the more southern and eastern areas

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as we go into Saturday, displacing that mild air,

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and something a bit fresher following on behind.

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Big question marks, then, through this weekend.

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It does look as if that front will clear through.

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Perhaps another set of fronts pushing in off the Atlantic

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to the more northern and western parts of the UK

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during the course of Sunday.

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But watch this, because the story could change again.

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And we're going to keep a very close eye on things.

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Through the early part of next week,

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it does look as if north-western areas will see most of the rain.

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Driest across the south-east. Breezy at times.

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But the heat does look like to be staying on hold for the time being.

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I'll update you again tomorrow.

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