09/09/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello there. If you've been keeping up to date with our forecasts

over the last day or so, you've probably heard that there's

a higher degree of uncertainty than normal

in terms of the computer models struggling to agree

on how the weather is going to develop.

Particularly over the weekend, out in the Atlantic,

we've got deepening areas of low pressure

but a lot of tropical warmth and moisture

from old tropical storms and hurricanes

and that is causing some complications

for the computer models

on how things are going to develop,

particularly by the time we get to Sunday.

Friday is a little bit more straightforward,

we've got a lot of dry, settled weather

for southern and eastern areas

but a band of rain moving in from the west,

strengthening winds here as well,

so some particularly wet and windy weather on Friday,

gales for some northern areas.

Sunshine, 22 or 23 degrees,

in the south and the east.

But this very wet and windy weather

will push eastwards across all areas

through Friday night and overnight into Saturday.

Those very strong gusts

eventually dying down towards the north-west

but the wet and windy weather arriving

across central southern England

by first thing Saturday.

Now, there will be some uncertainty

about the development of this area of rain on Saturday

in terms of its detail, its location and its timing

but we're most likely to see that

rain lingering through much of the day, really,

across southern and south-eastern parts of England

whereas elsewhere across the country,

it's not a bad day.

A return to fresher conditions

with some sunshine on offer too.

15 or 16 for most areas in the north

whereas by the south,

20 or 21 degrees under that rain.

Then moving through Saturday night into Sunday,

that's where things start to get more complicated.

There'll be this deepening area

of low pressure moving in from the Atlantic

and trained within that area of low pressure,

a lot of tropical warmth and moisture.

Now, the first scenario that the computer models

are thinking could happen is this low

moves in towards the north-west of the UK,

bringing initially wet and windy weather

to Northern Ireland, parts of Scotland,

brisk winds before it moves its way

south-eastwards across the country.

But another scenario is that

that area of low pressure could stay out

towards the south-west so I think most of us

avoiding the worst of the wet and windy weather.

Just some scattered showers for some western areas,

in particular, through the course of the day

whereas eastern areas are likely to stay dry.

So, things are looking rather tricky on Sunday.

It does look like many central and eastern areas

will see the best of the dry and the bright weather.

More chance of seeing stronger winds

and the arrival of some rain

for many north-western and western parts.

And then, as we look ahead into the new working week,

things start to get a little bit more certain again.

Computer models start to agree

that that area of low pressure

will probably push off to the north of the UK,

still some rain perhaps

for some northern and north-western areas

on Monday but certainly for England and Wales,

look at those temperatures -

we're back into the mid-20s.

Lots of dry weather on the cards,

down to the fact

that we've got this big area of high pressure

dominating things across central Europe,

the winds rotating around that area of high pressure.

So, that will bring a lot of dry weather

on into Tuesday across many parts.

In the north and the west,

always a chance of more cloud here

and some drizzly outbreaks of rain

whereas we could see 27 degrees

in the sunshine towards the south-east on Tuesday.

So, that theme continues through

the middle part of the week.

We're likely to see that

feed of southerly air coming in

so bringing relatively dry and warm weather

from Spain and southern France too,

importing that towards our shores.

Northern and western areas,

we're seeing a chance of some slightly cooler

and more unsettled weather.

Later in the week though,

the influence of that high will slip away

slowly towards the south

and that will open the doors

for areas of low pressure

to move in from the Atlantic

so by the end of the period,

more unsettled weather likely

for all parts of the country.

Bye for now.

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