23/09/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead


23/09/2016

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Hello. The jet stream will play more and more of an important role

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over the next week or so in our weather.

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It'll turn things more changeable,

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wet spells interspersed with some dry and sunny spells too.

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It'll certainly feel like autumn.

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On Friday we have a fresher feel to things but actually

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most of us are going to have a fine day.

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Another classic scene of autumn is low-pressure

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systems barrelling in from the Atlantic.

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This one will head northwards but its trailing weather fronts will

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dominate our weather through the weekend.

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They're not here yet though so most of us having

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a fine day on Friday after a fresh start.

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Temperatures climbing into the mid-to high teens,

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maybe up to 20 degrees Celsius across the south-east.

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There's that first weather system coming in,

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turning things wet and windy across the North West and actually it will

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stay wet through Friday night across Western Scotland

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and indeed most of Saturday.

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The build-up of rain here could cause some problems.

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We'll also see the weather fronts bringing rain to Northern Ireland

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through the night and for a good part of Saturday

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and the rain edging through Saturday into

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western parts of England and Wales.

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Ahead of it generally dry and bright.

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The winds will be noticeable, getting quite gusty at times.

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Look where they're coming from, the South,

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drawing up warm air so where we see hazy sunshine

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we could get over 20 Celsius across the south-east.

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Even where it's raining,

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temperatures above the average for the time of year.

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Now, the rain will edge Eastwards as the weather front

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trundles across the UK through the night.

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Still likely to have some rain across East Anglia and the

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south-east for Sunday morning but it should tend to scoot away

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and behind that weather front the winds have changed direction,

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now coming in from the Atlantic.

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A much a fresher feel on Sunday.

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Still quite a bit of sunshine,

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temperatures getting into the mid-teens but we'll also

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see showers coming in off the Atlantic too.

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A few showers around on Monday.

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Could be quite chilly start on Monday

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and with lighter winds there could be fog patches around

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as well for Monday morning's commute.

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But in the sunny spells in the afternoon

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we're back up to 14 to 19 Celsius.

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Behind me you will notice a rather ugly looking rain area and that is

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stemming from a rather ugly looking set of weather fronts and isobars.

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A complicated picture into Tuesday.

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It's complicated mostly thanks to Karl,

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we've been talking about this storm system for the past couple of days.

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Could become a hurricane over the weekend,

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drifting Northwards and into the North Atlantic weather systems.

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As it heads towards UK no longer a hurricane but injecting into

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the low-pressure systems energy and moisture

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so we could see quite a bit of wet weather

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and then behind that it remains unsettled.

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Changeable spells of dry and bright weather interspersed with

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cooler, blustery weather.

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Overall temperatures a touch above average through much of

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the second half of the week ahead but then average

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for the end of September, early October only 14-16 degrees.

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Although we may be a little warmer than that,

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it will be tempered by the blustery conditions,

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and we're not talking about the 30 degrees that we had last week.

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Why does it turn changeable in autumn?

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Well, it's all to do with the jet stream,

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that fast moving ribbon of air high up.

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In the summer months obviously the land gets hotter but the poles are

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also reasonably warm and it's the contrast in temperatures

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that drives the jet, so with less of a contrast the jet stream

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is often quite weak in the summer months but in the autumn, well, the

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land retains quite a bit of heat and at the same time the poles

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really start to cool down so you get more of a contrast

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between hot and cold, the jet stream gets more active

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and that creates more changeable weather, changing day on day.

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You throw a tropical storm into the mix like Karl,

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that adds energy and moisture

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and things get very lively.

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