25/09/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hi there.

As we look towards the end of the month and beyond,

it looks as if we're in for a turbulent spell of weather.

No two days the same.

We're going to see some wet and windy conditions,

interspersed by some shorter, settled spells.

We start with rain across eastern England on Sunday morning,

that won't last long.

Brighter skies following, and a whole packet of showers,

some of these could be heavy.

Thundery across northwestern areas, some hail mixed in too.

It's going to be one of those days.

Sunshine and showers, chopping and changing from hour to hour.

In the best of the sunshine, temperatures mid to high-teens.

Cooler than Saturday across eastern England.

When the showers come along,

those temperatures will be falling away by several degrees.

They'll continue into the night across northwestern areas,

then a bit of a lull through the early hours of Monday,

before this blob of blue arrives.

This is proving to be a headache for us forecasters, because getting

the track of this area of low pressure is proving very difficult.

The bottom line is to expect some rain at some stage on Monday.

Some of it could be heavy and persistent.

And where you see several hours of rain, it could be quite cool,

particularly through central areas.

That area of low pressure whistles away, to be followed by

a whole succession of fronts and low pressures through the week ahead,

continuing that turbulent spell I spoke about.

In between, mind you, there'll be some gaps, so some sunshine.

That's really the gist as we look through the next few days.

There will be some wet and windy weather, some of which could

cause some disruption, so watch this space for warnings.

But, in between, there will be sunshine too.

So Monday's rain clears out of the way,

followed very swiftly by another area of wet and windy weather,

targeting the northwest of the UK.

Particularly further south and east, it'll be drier and brighter,

warmer as well, temperatures getting up to the low-20s.

That'll be tempered by the winds, very strong winds across

the North West for a time, watch out for warnings for that.

And then another lull as we head towards the middle of the week,

a little ridge of high pressure, could be quite chilly overnight.

Before the next area of low pressure arrives on our doorstep from

the west, that'll be spreading more wind and rain,

again to the more northwestern areas.

That's where the worst of the weather will be in the week ahead.

Further south and east, not much rain, and the winds lighter as well.

But a sting in the tail of this area of low pressure.

You see the tightness of the isobars,

indicating potentially some very stormy conditions across

parts of Scotland, maybe northern England as well.

Again, we could feel the need to issue someone warnings,

closer to that event.

That clears out of the way,

then another one of those lulls on Thursday.

The winds dying down, sunshine returning,

it should feel pleasant in some places out of the breeze.

Why is the weather so turbulent?

Well, at this time of the year, the Arctic is cooling down rapidly,

you can see the expanding area of blue.

We've also got some tropical air coming up from the south.

Where those two air masses are meeting across the heart of America,

during the course of next week,

we get the jet stream becoming quite supercharged.

A strong jet stream, then rippling its way downstream,

getting the position of these ripples is proving quite difficult.

Our computer model's still quite uncertain about the detail as

we end the week. But in general, it does look as if,

to the north of the jet stream, low pressure will dominate.

To the south, high pressure.

And that replicates itself in terms of the weather.

Closest to the area of low pressure,

that's where we're most likely to see unsettled, wet and windy spells.

Whereas closest to the high-pressure area to the south,

that's where we're likely to see the more settled conditions.

But, at this time of year, of course, with light winds overnight,

that brings the potential for some lingering fog patches as well.

I'll update you again tomorrow.