05/10/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead


05/10/2016

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As you're no doubt aware,

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Hurricane Matthew is rampaging through the Caribbean

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with devastating effect, but what influence might it have

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on our weather in the week ahead and how?

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We'll see in a moment.

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Now, it's fine and settled across the UK.

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This is a shot taken by one of our weather watchers

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on Tuesday, the sunshine setting off the autumn colours.

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Why is it so settled?

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A huge area of high pressure plonked over Scandinavia

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and it's keeping these rain-bearing weather fronts

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at bay for the most part.

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Now, the feed of air off the continent

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does contain some cloud,

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but that cloud is thin and liable to break up

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so to all intents and purposes,

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it's going to be a reasonable day with some sunshine.

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In the sunshine, it shouldn't feel too bad,

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but that breeze has something of an edge to it

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and temperatures just a little bit lower

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than they have been so mid-teens, typically,

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not too bad in the sunshine.

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That high pressure remains dominant

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for several days to come.

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What we are going to find, actually,

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from Wednesday into Thursday

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is some chillier air circulating

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around the high and beginning to head in our direction.

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I've put on the colour blue here. Don't get too alarmed,

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it's not going to be frigid air

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by any stretch of the imagination,

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but it is going to turn chillier, I think,

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through Thursday and that breeze really will

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have quite an edge to it

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and the cloud will be a bit thicker as well.

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One or two showers,

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particularly across the more southern

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and eastern parts of the UK,

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but I must stress that most places will stay dry.

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Hopefully, you'll see some sunshine.

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Some of the best of that across the north-western areas

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where you've got some shelter from the breeze,

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but a chilly feel and again on Friday,

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getting the distribution of this cloud will not be easy,

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but generally it's the more eastern areas

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which will see thicker cloud

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and the risk of some showers

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and on into the weekend again,

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western areas with some shelter from that breeze

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probably seeing the best of the sunshine.

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Temperatures, though, struggling

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and where the skies remain clear overnight,

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we could see touches of frost.

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Again on Sunday, a few showers dotted around,

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particularly across some more eastern areas.

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Western areas seeing the best of the sunshine,

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but feeling cool.

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Now, back to that hurricane.

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We've had impacts, of course,

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as it tore through Haiti -

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this just one picture of the devastation which it's caused

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and it's been tracking its way

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northwards through eastern parts of Cuba

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and then it emerges on Wednesday

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out into open water again

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where it could re-intensify

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as it ploughs its way through the Bahamas.

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The question is where does it go next

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and there is an increasing signal

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that it could make landfall

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on the eastern seaboard of the States

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so for the likes of Florida,

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up towards Georgia and the Carolinas,

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an increasing chance

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of major impacts from this hurricane.

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Then it tracks its way northwards,

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no longer a hurricane,

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but a major low pressure system,

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and it could well end up

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as far north as Newfoundland

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or perhaps on into Greenland

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and that could actually build

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this area of high pressure closer to home

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so the stormy weather could actually

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lead to a continuation of the fine weather

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for us with some caveats.

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It does look as if we could see

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some showers developing more widely

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and also some even chillier air

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coming down in the flow from the north-east,

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again not desperately cold,

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it's only October,

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but temperatures really disappointing.

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They go below the normal - green is normal -

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and there's some variation in the signal

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from the computer models,

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but they're all pretty consistent

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that all the way through next week,

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temperatures will remain below normal

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for the time of year.

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So, to sum up,

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next week stays chilly for sure.

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There will be some showers around, we think,

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particularly across some eastern areas.

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It looks like western areas

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with some shelter from that breeze

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will see the best of the dry and bright weather.

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We'll update you again tomorrow.

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