13/10/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello. Climatologically speaking,

so far October's been a bit topsy-turvy.

At this time of year we'd expect the north-west

to be wettest, the south and east the driest.

That's not been the case.

Wettest spot up to the 11th

was actually Weybourne in Norfolk.

A month's worth of rain following

that first week and a half,

whereas to the north

and west of the UK,

all these locations have

barely seen a drop of rain.

That is about to change.

The high pressure system,

that blocking high that's been

across Scandinavia for so long,

is now relinquishing its grip,

and through the rest of the week

low pressure comes to dominate,

bringing outbreaks of rain

to all parts of the UK and also a change

in the way our weather feels.

The colder air, the blues here,

gets pushed out the way as we

lose the easterly winds,

southerlies by the end of the week,

and so temperatures

should start to rise once again.

As for Thursday, we've still

got the Scandinavian high dominating,

still those easterly winds,

and like recent days,

outbreaks of rain across eastern areas,

but this time, more of them

getting further westwards,

into Western Scotland,

Northern Ireland, north-west England,

the Midlands and north-eastern Wales.

Driest weather throughout Thursday

tending to be the further south you are,

with some sunshine, but temperatures

down on what they should be

and made to feel even colder

by the strength of the wind.

Which strengthens further through

the night and into Friday across the north,

as this area of low pressure

starts to dominate even more.

Could see gales across eastern Scotland,

and that relentless east to south-easterly wind

will pile in the rain clouds

across Aberdeenshire and parts

of Caithness in particular.

A thoroughly wet, windy day

here with gales in places.

South of that, should be drier and brighter,

little bit of sunshine around,

but some showers developing through the day.

Winds always a little lighter

for the south, so we'll get

a glimpse of sunshine, probably won't feel too bad.

But through Friday night

and into Saturday we see

the rain turn a little heavier

across parts of the country,

as this low pressure continues to spin round,

spreading the rain northwards and westwards.

Going to be parts of Scotland,

north-east England who bear

the brunt to start the weekend,

the most persistent of the rain,

strongest of the winds too.

The breeze picks up relative

to Friday for England and Wales,

there will be some sunshine, especially early on,

but some heavy, thundery showers developing later.

In the sunshine though, temperatures will lift

to the mid to high teens.

Those southerly to south-easterly

winds will dominate into Sunday,

still spreading areas of rain across the country.

So we will all see rain at some point,

it's whether you get it by night or by day.

Pinpointing the exact position of showers

this far ahead always difficult,

but still some heavy and thundery ones to come.

Bit of sunshine in between

and a bit on the breezy side.

Again, in the sunshine though, temperatures what

they should be for the time of year.

Now, by the end of Sunday and into Monday,

that low pressure spreads a bit further northwards.

We do have a weather front lingering to East Anglia

and the south-east to start the week,

which could bring a wet start

then gradually clearing.

Much of England and Wales dry,

and as that low pressure's a bit further away,

there should be fewer showers

across the country.

Most likely though,

towards the north-west of the UK.

Beyond that, well, we have to

step back the clock a bit,

to what's happening at the end

of this week in the west Pacific.

We mentioned Nicole yesterday,

battering Bermuda on Thursday,

but this will be the remnants

by the time we get to the weekend.

Around that some very warm air,

and as another low-pressure system

pushes out of eastern Canada,

cold air comes to meet it.

Where you get that clash of air masses,

we speed up the jet stream.

A more vigorous jet stream into next week,

which will stir up the weather once again.

Before it arrives, we'll have this initial dip

in the jet stream, which will bring another area

of low pressure our way, probably for Tuesday,

so again, potentially wet, windy

and fairly cool, but as that low-pressure system

pushes its way northwards, the jet stream kicks in.

The jet stream should be far enough north

to let high pressure develop from the south,

and so by the time we get to

the end of next week,

unlike for the month so far,

it could be the south and east

where the driest weather will be. Take care.