14/10/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead


14/10/2016

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Hello there. You may have heard on the news

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that a major hurricane passed

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close by to Bermuda during the day on Thursday,

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packing winds in excess of 100 miles an hour, so the biggest one,

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the most major hurricane, we've seen to this close to Bermuda

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in about 13 years.

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Why am I talking about this?

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Although it's not heading

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for our shores, it will impact

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somewhat in our weather.

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It'll throw, if you like,

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and interesting twist

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into the computer models.

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Let's come back

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to what's happening here in the UK now

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where we've had that easterly wind

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for so long now and it's a really chilly wind

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throwing lots more showers into the north.

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The lack of wind Friday morning

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in the south means an early frost

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and patchy fog potentially,

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but here a lot of dry and settled weather

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before rain comes

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into the south-west later

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and indeed the south-east.

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We're starting to lose the easterly wind

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in the south, so it'll start

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to feel less cold,

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but it's going to be another day or two

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that it's with us across

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the northern half of the country.

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We've got rain coming into the south-east

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through Friday evening,

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slipping its way northwards,

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really intensifying wet weather

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for eastern Scotland and heavy showers

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moving into the south and west.

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So there are warnings in force,

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do check the website,

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but it might be that we're seeing

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those downpours in western areas,

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but central and eastern areas

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have a pretty decent day on Saturday.

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We've lost the easterly wind,

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it'll feel quite warm, 16 to 18,

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but not across Scotland where we've got that -

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certainly northern Scotland -

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that easterly wind at near gale force

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and those heavy showers in the south and west,

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which then become more frequent

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and indeed more widespread as we move

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into Sunday across the rest of England and Wales.

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That weather front is moving out

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of the way of Scotland,

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so we lose that nagging easterly wind here

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at long last and perhaps

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some drier weather Sunday but, as you can see,

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showers are in the forecast elsewhere,

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not all the time,

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but there will be some really intense downpours.

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And that low pressure,

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well, that hangs around for some time

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as we move into the new part of the week.

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You can see high pressure

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just trying to nudge in and behind me Nicole.

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But we'll come back to that.

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Monday looks like another day

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of sunny spells and showers.

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There's that rain moving away to the north,

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more showers coming into the west,

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some sunshine in between,

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lighter winds, so feeling quite pleasant,

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14 to 18 potentially, and it's October.

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Now, by the end of Tuesday,

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we've changed air streams again,

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so we've lost that southerly wind

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and we pick up the Atlantic north-westerly,

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so it will start to feel cooler again.

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So we've got that band

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of really quite intense showery rain

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moving through and then sunny spells,

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but only 12s and 13s generally,

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perhaps 16 in London,

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just because we started the day

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with that warmer air.

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And then it's all to play for, really,

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as we go to the latter part of the week.

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There's that low pressure moving away,

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high pressure starting to build in

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and Nicole just throwing

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that warm air northwards,

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so it will interrupt

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the jet stream -

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that's the fast-moving ribbon of air

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in the upper atmosphere

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that that drives our weather systems in.

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So the low pressure slowly migrates

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a little bit further north early next week.

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The high-pressure moving into southern areas,

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a lot of dry and settled weather.

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We saw the warmth coming through

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earlier in the week,

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but there will be

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some chilly nights, that said.

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That's because our jet stream at that stage is throwing those

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low pressures across the northern half of the country.

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However, we've got Nicole sitting out in the Atlantic,

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a fly in the ointment,

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causing us a little bit of a headache and it looks at this stage

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as if she'll buckle that jet steam and allow low pressures

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to move northwards, but build high-pressure in across the UK

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but there's just the chance with that northerly

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that we'll see low pressure moving into eastern areas

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and those could give us

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some quite wet weather here.

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So some uncertainty later in the week,

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but it does look as if we'll see

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some fine days in the south

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and some chilly nights.

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