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Hello. Climatologically speaking, | 0:00:03 | 0:00:05 | |
so far October's been a bit topsy-turvy. | 0:00:05 | 0:00:06 | |
At this time of year we'd expect the north-west | 0:00:06 | 0:00:08 | |
to be wettest, the south and east the driest. | 0:00:08 | 0:00:10 | |
That's not been the case. | 0:00:10 | 0:00:12 | |
Wettest spot up to the 11th | 0:00:12 | 0:00:13 | |
was actually Weybourne in Norfolk. | 0:00:13 | 0:00:14 | |
A month's worth of rain following | 0:00:14 | 0:00:16 | |
that first week and a half, | 0:00:16 | 0:00:17 | |
whereas to the north | 0:00:17 | 0:00:18 | |
and west of the UK, | 0:00:18 | 0:00:19 | |
all these locations have | 0:00:19 | 0:00:21 | |
barely seen a drop of rain. | 0:00:21 | 0:00:23 | |
That is about to change. | 0:00:23 | 0:00:24 | |
The high pressure system, | 0:00:24 | 0:00:26 | |
that blocking high that's been | 0:00:26 | 0:00:27 | |
across Scandinavia for so long, | 0:00:27 | 0:00:28 | |
is now relinquishing its grip, | 0:00:28 | 0:00:29 | |
and through the rest of the week | 0:00:29 | 0:00:31 | |
low pressure comes to dominate, | 0:00:31 | 0:00:32 | |
bringing outbreaks of rain | 0:00:32 | 0:00:34 | |
to all parts of the UK and also a change | 0:00:34 | 0:00:35 | |
in the way our weather feels. | 0:00:35 | 0:00:37 | |
The colder air, the blues here, | 0:00:37 | 0:00:38 | |
gets pushed out the way as we | 0:00:38 | 0:00:40 | |
lose the easterly winds, | 0:00:40 | 0:00:41 | |
southerlies by the end of the week, | 0:00:41 | 0:00:42 | |
and so temperatures | 0:00:42 | 0:00:43 | |
should start to rise once again. | 0:00:43 | 0:00:45 | |
As for Thursday, we've still | 0:00:45 | 0:00:46 | |
got the Scandinavian high dominating, | 0:00:46 | 0:00:48 | |
still those easterly winds, | 0:00:48 | 0:00:49 | |
and like recent days, | 0:00:49 | 0:00:50 | |
outbreaks of rain across eastern areas, | 0:00:50 | 0:00:53 | |
but this time, more of them | 0:00:53 | 0:00:54 | |
getting further westwards, | 0:00:54 | 0:00:55 | |
into Western Scotland, | 0:00:55 | 0:00:56 | |
Northern Ireland, north-west England, | 0:00:56 | 0:00:58 | |
the Midlands and north-eastern Wales. | 0:00:58 | 0:01:00 | |
Driest weather throughout Thursday | 0:01:00 | 0:01:01 | |
tending to be the further south you are, | 0:01:01 | 0:01:03 | |
with some sunshine, but temperatures | 0:01:03 | 0:01:05 | |
down on what they should be | 0:01:05 | 0:01:06 | |
and made to feel even colder | 0:01:06 | 0:01:07 | |
by the strength of the wind. | 0:01:07 | 0:01:09 | |
Which strengthens further through | 0:01:09 | 0:01:11 | |
the night and into Friday across the north, | 0:01:11 | 0:01:13 | |
as this area of low pressure | 0:01:13 | 0:01:14 | |
starts to dominate even more. | 0:01:14 | 0:01:15 | |
Could see gales across eastern Scotland, | 0:01:15 | 0:01:17 | |
and that relentless east to south-easterly wind | 0:01:17 | 0:01:19 | |
will pile in the rain clouds | 0:01:19 | 0:01:21 | |
across Aberdeenshire and parts | 0:01:21 | 0:01:22 | |
of Caithness in particular. | 0:01:22 | 0:01:23 | |
A thoroughly wet, windy day | 0:01:23 | 0:01:25 | |
here with gales in places. | 0:01:25 | 0:01:28 | |
South of that, should be drier and brighter, | 0:01:28 | 0:01:29 | |
little bit of sunshine around, | 0:01:29 | 0:01:30 | |
but some showers developing through the day. | 0:01:30 | 0:01:32 | |
Winds always a little lighter | 0:01:32 | 0:01:33 | |
for the south, so we'll get | 0:01:33 | 0:01:34 | |
a glimpse of sunshine, probably won't feel too bad. | 0:01:34 | 0:01:36 | |
But through Friday night | 0:01:36 | 0:01:38 | |
and into Saturday we see | 0:01:38 | 0:01:39 | |
the rain turn a little heavier | 0:01:39 | 0:01:40 | |
across parts of the country, | 0:01:40 | 0:01:41 | |
as this low pressure continues to spin round, | 0:01:41 | 0:01:44 | |
spreading the rain northwards and westwards. | 0:01:44 | 0:01:45 | |
Going to be parts of Scotland, | 0:01:45 | 0:01:47 | |
north-east England who bear | 0:01:47 | 0:01:48 | |
the brunt to start the weekend, | 0:01:48 | 0:01:49 | |
the most persistent of the rain, | 0:01:49 | 0:01:51 | |
strongest of the winds too. | 0:01:51 | 0:01:52 | |
The breeze picks up relative | 0:01:52 | 0:01:53 | |
to Friday for England and Wales, | 0:01:53 | 0:01:55 | |
there will be some sunshine, especially early on, | 0:01:55 | 0:01:57 | |
but some heavy, thundery showers developing later. | 0:01:57 | 0:01:59 | |
In the sunshine though, temperatures will lift | 0:01:59 | 0:02:01 | |
to the mid to high teens. | 0:02:01 | 0:02:02 | |
Those southerly to south-easterly | 0:02:02 | 0:02:03 | |
winds will dominate into Sunday, | 0:02:03 | 0:02:05 | |
still spreading areas of rain across the country. | 0:02:05 | 0:02:07 | |
So we will all see rain at some point, | 0:02:07 | 0:02:08 | |
it's whether you get it by night or by day. | 0:02:08 | 0:02:10 | |
Pinpointing the exact position of showers | 0:02:10 | 0:02:12 | |
this far ahead always difficult, | 0:02:12 | 0:02:14 | |
but still some heavy and thundery ones to come. | 0:02:14 | 0:02:16 | |
Bit of sunshine in between | 0:02:16 | 0:02:17 | |
and a bit on the breezy side. | 0:02:17 | 0:02:19 | |
Again, in the sunshine though, temperatures what | 0:02:19 | 0:02:21 | |
they should be for the time of year. | 0:02:21 | 0:02:22 | |
Now, by the end of Sunday and into Monday, | 0:02:22 | 0:02:24 | |
that low pressure spreads a bit further northwards. | 0:02:24 | 0:02:27 | |
We do have a weather front lingering to East Anglia | 0:02:27 | 0:02:29 | |
and the south-east to start the week, | 0:02:29 | 0:02:31 | |
which could bring a wet start | 0:02:31 | 0:02:32 | |
then gradually clearing. | 0:02:32 | 0:02:33 | |
Much of England and Wales dry, | 0:02:33 | 0:02:35 | |
and as that low pressure's a bit further away, | 0:02:35 | 0:02:37 | |
there should be fewer showers | 0:02:37 | 0:02:38 | |
across the country. | 0:02:38 | 0:02:39 | |
Most likely though, | 0:02:39 | 0:02:40 | |
towards the north-west of the UK. | 0:02:40 | 0:02:41 | |
Beyond that, well, we have to | 0:02:41 | 0:02:43 | |
step back the clock a bit, | 0:02:43 | 0:02:44 | |
to what's happening at the end | 0:02:44 | 0:02:45 | |
of this week in the west Pacific. | 0:02:45 | 0:02:47 | |
We mentioned Nicole yesterday, | 0:02:47 | 0:02:49 | |
battering Bermuda on Thursday, | 0:02:49 | 0:02:51 | |
but this will be the remnants | 0:02:51 | 0:02:52 | |
by the time we get to the weekend. | 0:02:52 | 0:02:53 | |
Around that some very warm air, | 0:02:53 | 0:02:55 | |
and as another low-pressure system | 0:02:55 | 0:02:56 | |
pushes out of eastern Canada, | 0:02:56 | 0:02:58 | |
cold air comes to meet it. | 0:02:58 | 0:02:59 | |
Where you get that clash of air masses, | 0:02:59 | 0:03:01 | |
we speed up the jet stream. | 0:03:01 | 0:03:02 | |
A more vigorous jet stream into next week, | 0:03:02 | 0:03:05 | |
which will stir up the weather once again. | 0:03:05 | 0:03:07 | |
Before it arrives, we'll have this initial dip | 0:03:07 | 0:03:08 | |
in the jet stream, which will bring another area | 0:03:08 | 0:03:10 | |
of low pressure our way, probably for Tuesday, | 0:03:10 | 0:03:12 | |
so again, potentially wet, windy | 0:03:12 | 0:03:14 | |
and fairly cool, but as that low-pressure system | 0:03:14 | 0:03:17 | |
pushes its way northwards, the jet stream kicks in. | 0:03:17 | 0:03:19 | |
The jet stream should be far enough north | 0:03:19 | 0:03:21 | |
to let high pressure develop from the south, | 0:03:21 | 0:03:23 | |
and so by the time we get to | 0:03:23 | 0:03:25 | |
the end of next week, | 0:03:25 | 0:03:26 | |
unlike for the month so far, | 0:03:26 | 0:03:27 | |
it could be the south and east | 0:03:27 | 0:03:29 | |
where the driest weather will be. Take care. | 0:03:29 | 0:03:31 |