16/10/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hi, there. Some interesting developments taking place

in the atmosphere in the week ahead,

but I'm pretty confident we won't see anything quite as dramatic

as we saw exactly 29 years ago,

when the Great Storm of October 1987

swept across the country

with devastating effect,

and this was the sort of scene

which some of us woke up to

across southern parts of the UK

on the morning of the 16th.

Nothing that dramatic on the menu.

We will have a low pressure in close attendance

over the next couple of days, but it's much flabbier.

The isobars around it

aren't so tightly squeezed,

so the winds won't be as strong,

though there will be some blustery showers

circulating around that low pressure system.

There'll be some variety in our weather -

wet weather, for example, across the north of Scotland

on Saturday afternoon.

Further south, we saw blue skies and sunshine in Lancashire.

And we'll keep that variety going

over the next couple of days.

So, on Sunday,

one band of showery rain pushes northwards

through England, Wales and Northern Ireland

and into the heart of Scotland.

Followed in turn by those brighter skies again,

the sun coming out

for much of England and Wales, actually.

There will be some showers out west,

but in the sunshine, very pleasant indeed.

Temperatures once more up into

the mid-to-high teens.

But where it's wet - for example,

across the heart of Highlands Scotland -

it won't feel all that warm.

That low pressure's still there,

it's anchored to the north-west.

And it's areas closest to that low,

as we get on into Monday,

which will see most of the showers,

particularly for Northern Ireland

and Scotland.

By and large,

the further south and east we are,

there'll be fewer showers, lighter winds,

there'll be more sunshine

and it'll feel quite warm again.

Temperatures once more

into the mid-to-high teens across

these more southern and eastern parts

of the UK.

Further north and west, though,

with more showers around,

it will be cooler here,

with 12 or 13 more typical

for Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Now, as we head towards Tuesday and Wednesday,

that low pressure system is going to

sort of waddle its way across the country,

bringing some fairly heavy bursts of rain

down with it.

And in the wake of that,

still some cloud and showers on Tuesday

and we're going to start to draw in some cooler

northerly winds,

so temperatures really struggling,

just, what, 11-13 degrees typically

and that cooling trend

a sign of things to come.

Now, Hurricane Nicole,

it's been around for a week or so now.

It's still stuck out there

in the middle of the Atlantic.

It could well play a part

in our weather later on this week.

No longer a hurricane,

but it'll surge a lot of energy northwards

and the downstream effect of that

will be to build this area of high pressure.

From midweek on, really,

that's set to dominate our weather.

So that means the weather's

actually going to settle down

by virtue of Nicole.

Still some showers across eastern England

on that cool northerly breeze.

The best of the dry and bright weather

further north and west,

but, again, it's quite a cool air stream,

so temperatures not all that great.

And similarly on Thursday,

that cool breeze bringing more showers

to East Anglia and the south-east.

By and large, the further north and west we are,

it'll be drier, it'll be quieter,

with some sunshine by day.

But with clear skies overnight,

temperatures will be falling away.

Some chilly nights to come this week.

Could see some frost around

across the north and west

and some lingering fog patches as well.

Now, the atmosphere is very blocked -

it has been for much of October.

Normally, we have quite a strong,

westerly jet stream,

but just look how contorted it is

and it's going to remain so

for some time to come,

and that's going to prevent

those weather systems really making

much of an inroad in off the Atlantic.

Those northerly or easterly winds

will continue to dominate.

That means mostly dry weather

next weekend.

Quite chilly, though,

particularly as the winds pick up.

Could well be that eventually rain

will start to push in from the west

as those fronts liven up,

but watch this space.

I will update you again this time tomorrow.

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