20/10/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello, there. On Wednesday, many parts of the UK

started to see the weather calm down once again.

A lot of dry weather around, a fair bit of sunshine at times too,

but it was a different story on the east coast of England once again.

These high seas

captured by our weather watchers

whipped up in Scarborough

and on the north Norfolk coast

in Cromer, battering the pier here.

Strong to gale-force winds, in fact,

through the day, frequent showers,

especially later in the day.

It's all caused by this area of low pressure.

That's going to just linger around

to the southeast over the next couple of days,

but it's really high pressure dominating for most,

which means more in the way of cool,

at times frosty nights, as we'll see,

to start Thursday morning,

but a lot of dry, bright weather by day.

The mist clears, lots of sunshine.

Lighter winds compared with Wednesday,

so many western areas may feel a little bit warmer,

even though the temperatures are nothing to write home about.

There will be varying amounts of cloud

across England and eastern Wales in particular

through the day.

Just threatening the odd isolated shower.

Greatest chance of showers remain down eastern parts,

closest to that area of low pressure.

Here the breeze is at its strongest,

but even that a little bit lighter

than it was on Wednesday afternoon.

Still remains, that breeze in place

as we go through Thursday night into Friday,

a few coastal showers. But at the same time,

you'll also notice a bit more cloud

in Northern Ireland, Western Scotland.

Outbreaks of rain spreading here.

In between, though, away from towns and cities,

clear skies, some mist

and a chance of frost once again.

That's because here you're under that little area

of high pressure. Either side of it,

we've got some weather fronts to the northwest of the UK.

Still that low pressure.

Becoming less dominant, but still noticeable

towards the southeast of the country,

so I'm afraid East Anglia, southeast,

still the chance of one or two showers,

and still that breeze.

Most, though, light winds.

Pleasant enough in the afternoon sunshine,

once morning mist and fog has cleared.

Rain, though, will linger throughout the day.

Highlands and Islands of Scotland especially.

Temperatures, generally speaking,

not far off what we'll see on Thursday,

which takes us into the weekend.

Well, what we have at the moment is some very warm air

to the east of the United States.

That will help to fire up a strong jet steam.

The blocking high, though,

splits that jet stream in two as it approaches us.

It's the southern portion,

the strongest portion, which is of interest,

because it starts to develop this area of low pressure.

As that develops,

an easterly wind develops for the UK,

as that low pressure

squeezes against the high in Scandinavia.

Like we saw the other week,

easterly winds will start to dominate.

It's getting colder and colder,

that easterly wind, as we go through Saturday.

Still a few showers down the east.

Most of the places, though, dry and bright.

Best of the sunshine the further west you are.

But the breeze picks up even further

as that low pressure deepens,

more in the Bay of Biscay,

and edges closer towards us.

So expect more cloud.

The showers, across eastern areas to begin with,

will get that little bit further west.

Many western areas still dry and bright at this stage,

but just notice, creeping closer, the threat of some rain.

This probably opens up the biggest uncertainty

through the forecast period -

just whether this low pressure system,

as it clears away,

throws any weather fronts in our direction.

So Monday's forecast,

probably the most uncertain at the moment.

We've still got an easterly wind

whichever way you look at it.

Western areas, particularly northwest,

probably driest and brightest,

but that chance of rain pushing in towards the south.

If we look at the star of next week, we've got that low pressure clearing

away to the south, but still the risks of those weather fronts.

But all computer models are starting to show signs

that that will actually go away through the week.

So, as we progress through the week, this high pressure dominates.

Its position changes, though, pushes further south,

so England and Wales most likely to be dry and bright by day,

but some overnight mist, some fog and some frost.

Then, as the jet stream strengthens further out of North America,

we could start to see things starting to turn back

to low pressure in the northwest, which brings the greatest threat

of rain later next week, to northern and western parts of Scotland.

We'll keep you updated, of course, over the coming days.