19/10/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead


19/10/2016

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Hello. Weather patterns across the UK

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set to become static - blocked - once again.

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What that means is the weather is not going to change a huge amount

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through the rest of this week. If you're in eastern England

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you're most likely to see showers on and off.

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They're not quite as heavy as you'll see on Wednesday.

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Elsewhere, generally dry story,

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but we could see some rather cool nights and some misty mornings

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to take us through the week.

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The reason things are becoming static is this -

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it's the remnants of Hurricane Nicole,

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long-lasting named storm in the Atlantic -

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as it pushed into the North Atlantic,

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it takes huge amounts of snow into Greenland over the next few days

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but it drags up lots of warm air on its eastern flank

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and it's that which helps to build this -

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an area of high pressure to the west which will hang around for a while.

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Notice to the east we have low pressure also stranded -

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that will have an impact across eastern areas,

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certainly see showers again on Wednesday.

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Some of those heavy later on.

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Further west, some good sunny spells.

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Starting off with a few showers round western areas,

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fewer in number by the end of the afternoon,

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Wales and the south-west fairly well scattered.

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Temperatures across western areas - because the winds are lighter,

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a little bit warmer than Tuesday,

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but pretty chilly down the east coast.

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The winds could touch gale force

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and by the end of the afternoon the showers could get heavier.

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Thunder too, lasting into the evening.

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The showers continue as we go through Wednesday night.

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Further west, one or two showers clipping in towards Pembrokeshire,

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down towards Cornwall, Isles of Scilly,

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maybe the odd one in the Channel Islands.

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Many will be dry with some clear skies around.

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Temperatures by night across Western areas dropping night by night -

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that's because the wind's a bit lighter

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and with clear skies, a touch of frost to some into Thursday morning.

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So here's the chart for Thursday.

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High pressure firmly to the west of the UK -

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actually, over much of the UK.

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That low pressure still stranded across the southern North Sea

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feeding in a cool breeze down these eastern coasts.

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Maybe a little bit lighter than Wednesday,

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the showers also lighter and fewer in number.

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In fact, most of you will have a dry day on Thursday.

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Not especially warm, but in the sunshine

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and with just a gentle breeze, that sun is still strong enough

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to make it feel pleasant, certainly, outside.

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As we go through into Friday,

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high pressure starts to nose away just a little bit.

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Still firmly in control, but it does allow a weather front

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just to clip Northern Ireland, western parts of Scotland.

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Risk of cloud and patchy rain here.

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Still a few showers down eastern areas, fairly light,

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lots of brightness and a bit of sunshine in between.

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So the ridge of high pressure is moving back into Scandinavia

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by the weekend - it's still with us,

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but with more of an easterly flow developing across the country -

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easterly or southeasterly depending on where you are -

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that continues to feed cloud

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and one or two showers into eastern Scotland and eastern England.

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Further west always drier and brighter.

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Breeze picks up, so the mist not so much of a problem in the morning.

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That'll be the case, too, on Sunday, especially across Wales

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and the south-west, where some of the windiest weather will be.

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Fewer showers in the east than Saturday, most will be dry,

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best of the sunshine in the north and the west.

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Now as we finish Sunday,

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high pressure to the north of us, low pressure towards the south.

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This will have a little bit of impact as we go into next week,

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but generally, high pressure holds on.

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But with that low pressure system south and high pressure north

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we continue with the feed of generally easterly winds

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and as we saw to start October,

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doesn't lead to especially warm weather.

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The one uncertainty is whether we see weather fronts

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pushing round this low to the south-west,

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which could just clip in rain at times

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across southern parts of England and Wales especially,

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always drive further north.

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Beyond that, exactly where that high pressure ends up

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depends on the weather conditions.

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We'll look at that over the coming nights.

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But this week into next week, a blocked pattern develops.

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Compared to what we should see in October

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it will be drier than normal, but those easterly winds

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will maintain a fairly cool feel. Bye for now.

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