13/01/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead


13/01/2017

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It was a mild December but I'm sure we can all agree now that winter

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has arrived with a vengeance.

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From top to tail across the UK

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we've had some snowfall over the last 24 hours or so.

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This shot taken from Highlands, Scotland,

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and across southeastern parts of England

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the rain turned to snow during the course of Thursday,

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a few centimetres up over the high ground as well.

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But we need to put all this in perspective.

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Cast your minds back 30 years -

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some of us can remember -

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blizzards raged across southern

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and eastern parts of the UK

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and temperatures by day

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exactly 30 years ago

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did not get above -8 Celsius

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all day long.

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So, let's put this little cold snap

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into some perspective. The highs on Friday -

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2-5 degrees, north to south.

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There's no doubt about it, it does feel

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chilly out there and it will be a chilly

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and wintry day.

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Through the early hours, a little band of snowfall

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pushing out of Scotland and running all the way

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down the eastern side of England.

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A pretty narrow band but it could deposit

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a couple of centimetres of snow.

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More like rain or sleet on the coast.

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We've got a gale blowing down the North Sea

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with big waves.

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That snow could arrive in the London area

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just in time for the rush hour.

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It doesn't last long, it clears out of the way,

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the sun comes out and for most places

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it'll be a bright but cold day on Friday.

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That brisk wind will continue

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and it'll continue to feed some

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wintry showers into exposed areas.

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But with some shelter -

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for example, along the south cost,

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shouldn't feel too bad

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with temperatures 4 or 5 degrees.

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It certainly will not feel very pleasant

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along those North Sea coasts.

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We're quite concerned about the possibility

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of a storm surge,

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with huge waves crashing onto the coastline,

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coastal flooding a real possibility.

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Further wintry showers across parts of

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Northern Ireland and the more exposed

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northern parts of Scotland.

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But plenty of sunshine further south.

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Cold, though, and after a widespread frost

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on Saturday it'll be another chilly day.

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Further wintry showers down the east coast,

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the strongest of the winds beginning to moderate,

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and the showers out west

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will begin to turn back to rain or sleet.

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Something a bit milder trying to encroach

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off the Atlantic.

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You can see the yellow's trying to push in.

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How quickly the mild air gets across to the east

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and removes that block of cold

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is a big question mark.

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I think for western areas it will turn milder

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with some outbreaks of rain,

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but for eastern-most parts

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it could be a raw day on Sunday

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as that cloud and patchy rain,

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maybe a bit of sleet, turns up -

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just 4 or 5 degrees here,

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milder out west.

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Even by Monday, the warm air

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hasn't quite made it

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across to eastern parts of England

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and this warm front will grind to a halt,

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so along that zone we'll have cloud

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and patchy rain.

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Probably drier on either side

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but whereas out west it'll be mild,

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double figures here,

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still be chilly across eastern parts

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of England. And then, if anything,

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as we head through Tuesday into Wednesday,

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things start to push back westwards again

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as that cold block pushes the mild air

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back into the Atlantic.

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That's the case across England and Wales.

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Northern Ireland and Scotland

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will probably hold on to milder air.

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It's all governed by the jet stream,

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and the jet stream's

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in a weird configuration,

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a massive great loop,

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this branch of it

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pushing milder air into the northwest,

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this branch pushing that cold

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continental air into the south and east,

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with a contrast in temperature

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between the northwest and the southeast

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in the course of next week.

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That's it, I'll update you again tomorrow.

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