Paul Mason Artsnight


Paul Mason

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This programme contains scenes which some viewers may find upsetting.

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The biggest mass migrations since... A Republican candidate determined to

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build a wall between the USA and Mexico. Can the mature secular

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democracies adapt to their institutions or will they be

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eclipsed by chaos, despotism? The big question is, can the West

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survive? Hay Castle was built by Norman

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knight to keep the Welsh out of newly conquered England. Today, it

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is part of the site of the Hay Festival, one of the most

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prestigious book festivals in the world and a great bondage point from

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which to survey modern geopolitical conflict. -- a great plant each

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point. In this episode, I will be examining the crisis facing the

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West, as seen through the pages of six new books featured at the

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festival. I will be looking at the past, how am I is formed, and at the

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future, how technology is preparing us for the New World ahead. First,

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the present, and it is not looking good. During his military career,

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General Sir Richard Sheriff became one of the highest ranking soldiers

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and until recently was deputy head of Nato. He is a man who speaks his

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mind, was famously threatened with court martial when he criticised

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David Cameron's defence cuts. His first book, 2017: War with Russia:

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An Urgent Warning from Senior Military Command, brings us and

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urgent warning. Russia is our strategic adversary

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and has said itself on a collision course for the West. It is enhancing

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its military capability, it has thrown away the rule book on which

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the post-war settlement of Europe was based. The president has started

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a dynamic which can only be halted at the West wakes up to the real

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possibility of war and takes action. Sir Richard, your book contains a

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fictional scenario of war with Russia. How real and how possible of

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the events? Very real and very possible. If we don't take the

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necessary measures to make it a unreal and impossible. If there is a

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threat to the West, what is the biggest threat? The biggest threat

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is the potential for nuclear war. We need to remember, and this is

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something that comes out of the book, that nuclear thinking is hard

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wired into Russian military thinking. They have nuclear bombs. A

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standard Russian major exercise involving Russian troops that has

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happened recently, could see the Baltic states and session as the

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scenario and the final phase is what they call rather chillingly nuclear

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de-escalation. In other works, they have taken what they want and if we

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try and come back and get it, they will nuke us. We have taken our eye

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off the ball and we have forgotten the lessons of the Cold War in which

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Nato maintained peace with effective deterrence. We have been lucky, we

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have had peace, but it is not necessarily the default setting in

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international relations. If you look at the suite of history, war is all

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too often the default setting. Peace is precious, it needs to be worked

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and paid for. Yes, defence is expensive, but you should try the

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costs of war. Much worse. This is an incredibly serious scenario. Why did

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you do your book as fiction? It is fact braced prediction and out of

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other story because I hope people will read it and will find it an

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interesting read. Above all, I have contributed in recent months to two

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think tank report highlighting the dangers of the ball states. Not many

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people read think tank reports, unless they are in the business. I

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want people who know nothing about defence to read this and think, this

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is serious, we need to do something. Too many ordinary people in Britain,

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it would be unthinkable that we would ever go once again into even

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an intense rivalry with Russia, let alone a shooting war. Do David have

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to make that mindset change? They do, and this is my point. It is

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something we send our professional soldiers and sailors and marines and

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airmen along way away to Iraq, Afghanistan, but they are

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professional soldiers, that is what they do. The notion of a national

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war of survival is inconceivable. But people need to understand that

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the defence of Britain doesn't start at the Straits of Dover or the white

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cliffs or on the Murray Firth but it actually starts in the forests of

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the Lithuanian of a Latvian border. If war with Russia is just a fiction

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for now, the war in Syria is a harsh reality.

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The thing about being in war zones is the unexpected always happens.

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Janine di Giovanni lived alongside the Syrian people documenting life

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in the middle of a jihadist war. One of the most brutal struggles in

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recent history. The very experienced reporters don't want to do it. Her

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book, The Morning They Came For Us, is an uncompromising account of the

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nation on the brink of disintegration. Ordinarily people,

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war starts with a jolt. One day, you are busy with dentist appointments

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or ballet lessons, and then the curtain draws. One moment, the daily

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routine grinds on, ATMs work and mobile phones function. Then,

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suddenly, everything stops. Barricades go up, soldiers are

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recruited and neighbours work to form their own defences. Ministers

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are assassinated and the country falls into chaos. Fathers disappear.

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The banks close and money and culture and life as people knew it

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vanishes. Janine di Giovanni, your book describes the horror of the

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Syrian war. Do you think ordinary people in the West even know or

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understand the depths of what has been happening there? Probably not.

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It is an incredibly compact is war. It is a proxy war, there are many

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components, many stakeholders involved in it. But I think on a

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very small micro level, what actually is happening to the people

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I think it's very underreported. The starvation being used as a tool of

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war, torture, rape, enforced detention, people are simply

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vanishing. What would go West do if we did understand how bad it is for

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ordinarily Syrian people? I think if we could put ourselves in the place

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of ordinarily Syrian people, we would have acted. I think we have to

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step up the humanitarian aid. There are many seized areas where people

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are starving to death. I think if we have the means to attack Isis, we

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have the means to drop food onto starving people with airdrops.

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Protecting humanitarian quarters. As a journalist who covered Iraq, I

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never thought I would hear myself saying that intervention is

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necessary but in the case of Serbia which is destabilising the whole

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region and written is to be a long-term conflict, I think

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long-term intervention should be an option.

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# In the case of Syria. What should we be doing? It shouldn't be a

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surprise to anyone that 4 million people are fleeing war, fleeing

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political turmoil, they are trying to save their lives. What can we do?

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In my view, we have to have more compassion. I am the child of an

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immigrant. My father came from Italy and went to America and I think most

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people have roots that stretch back. World War II was not so long ago and

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in many ways, the crisis, the humanitarian crisis that is

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unleashing an Europe right now is a result of our nonchalance, our

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policy of looking away a look -- getting the war in Syria fester. Do

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you think journalism can have any effect? You have done the

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journalism, in your book, there are unflinching descriptions of violence

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and sexual violence and yet nothing changes. I do think journalism has

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an impact. I think my colleagues and I in Bosnia refused to let the story

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guy and we try to avert what would become the genocide at chevron eats,

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we didn't do that but we did continue to report on war crimes and

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we try to make the case that we should never let this happen on our

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watch. We know that in 1994 in grander, there was a genocide. There

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have been subsequent horrific humanitarian catastrophes.

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Absolutely, journalism has a real place, not just as one of the

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pillars of democracy, with free speech and if we bring to light the

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horrors that are happening inside Syria, people can galvanise. The

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pressure that that public can put on their government is crucial. It is

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really our job to continue to do that.

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Can the West survive the threat of a nuclear apocalypse other rarities of

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the humanitarian tragedy that is unfolding all around us? If the

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present is uncertain, what can we learn from the past? Is that history

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shows, the seeds of the catastrophe are often sown from within. The

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Romanovs were the most successful dynasty of modern times, ruling six

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of the world's surface. Simon Sebag Montefiore's book is an intimate

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story of 20 czars and czarina is, some touched by genius, some touched

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by madness. The Romanovs inhabit a world of family rivalry, imperial

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ambition, Lou Reed glamour, sexual excess and depravity. Lesbian men

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trois, and an Emperor who wrote the most erotic correspondence ever

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written by a head of state. Yet, this is also an empire, a

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civilisation of towering culture and exquisite beauty. Simon Sebag

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Montefiore, it is almost like the question, what did the Romanovs do

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for us? What did they do for Russia? They've a lot. They were immensely

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successful. Actually, they made Russia the biggest empire in modern

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times. The most successful empire builders since Genghis Kahn. They

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also made colossal mistakes. One of them was to try and promote a narrow

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nationalistic state which alienate it all the ethnic peoples, the

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polls, the Jews, the Finns, the Tartars, in their empire. Another

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one was to stick to a very narrow ideology, it was just as daft and at

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the third as Marxism and Leninism became. What are the parallels with

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what Putin is trying to do? Blood amid Putin has this greater Russia

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as a stated objective. The parallels are direct. The

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dilemma of Russian power is to try to justify autocracy by providing

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security at home, prosperity at home, and also spectacular imperial

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prestige abroad. But that costs money. And ultimately, if you are

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pursuing this kind of fantastic adventure abroad but you cannot

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afford it at home, you will fall. And that is basically what happened

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to the Romanovs. And Vladimir Putin is in danger of that happening to

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him since he is now pursuing this incredibly expensive rearmament,

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adventures in Syria and Ukraine and so on, which are incredibly

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spectacular, great on television, crowd pleasing, but if he does not

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reform his economy he will fight you cannot afford it, just as the

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Soviets could not afford it, just as the Imperial Romanovs could not

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afford it. And what the Romanovs were doing is to make Russia great

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again, and that is a slogan that is now familiar as Donald Trump's

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slogan. Ironically, although we think about our democracies as

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superior to those of Russia, in some ways we are pursuing similar

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aspirations to them, and similarly dangerous ones. Do you think we in

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the West have to learn how to make some kind of accommodation to

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Russia? It has revived as an economic power, whatever you think

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of the current leadership. Have we got it wrong? We have certainly had

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to learn the hard way that in the Middle East, for example, we cannot

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do anything without Russia. Russia is there. It is dominating now,

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Syria. In Palmeiro, for example, in the temple there, the Russians have

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set up, and it shows that there are concept of the spectacular

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showmanship and projection of imperial power is way beyond what we

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understand, and so Syrian peace is now impossible without Russia. It

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has already happened. We now have to acknowledge that Russia is once

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again a great hour. How long for is another question. But they are back.

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The year before the Romanov dynasty finally came to an end, seven men

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change the course of history much closer to home. On Easter Sunday

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1916, the seven signed their names to the proclamation of the Irish

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Republic. This challenge to imperial rule triggered a six-day battle with

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British troops in the centre of Dublin which left almost 500 dead.

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Ruth Dudley Edwards new book, the Seven, asked whether Ireland's

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founding fathers had a coherent vision or whether they were just a

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collection of fanatics, misfits and failures. The Troubles could make. I

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am, not least and mighty 93, as a journalist. I was fascinated with

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the preoccupation with the seamers lineage of heroes and martyrs who

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have been used to inspire generation after generation to kill and die for

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Ireland without any regard to the wishes of the people. Ruth Dudley

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Edwards, what was unique about the men who made the Easter rising

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happened? They had a supremely gifted, can best among them, partly

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airport, also headmaster, he was worth his weight in gold as a

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propagandist. And deconstructed in narrative of repeated attempts of

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the Irish people to get rid of the British York. He proclamation of the

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Irish Republic that they produced in 1916 day that narrative. It was very

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cleverly done. There was no support for the Revolutionary started. Their

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plans were preposterous. Some of them wanted to die, some of them

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hoped to win. We all had these different needs and visions of it.

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But my big contention about this is that because of the violence of 1916

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every other person who came along and decided he was right in the

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Irish people wrong now believe he would get retrospective

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justification. So you have what was called the War of Independence, and

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you have a Civil War, and ever since then we have had the provisional IRA

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say no they were right and everybody else was wrong, and they are trying

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to legitimise what they did in 30 years destroying Northern Ireland in

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the same way that 1916 happened. It has been a frightful precedent for

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violence. And for you, the seven men who signed the proclamation, have a

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huge responsibility in other words for what you see as the negative

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legacy? I think they have enormous responsibility. I don't think they

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had a clear view of what they were doing, except in some cases just to

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get at the Brits. To get clear of an emotional turmoil or to be a great

:18:19.:18:22.

marker, a great Catholic martyr. To be the Christ of Irish nationalists.

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He can be consulted Christ, dying for his people. They had all sorts

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of mixed ideas. But in the end they were doing what they wanted to do,

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more for themselves and for anyone else. It was narcissism. Do you

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think we in the West can learn anything from that period for the

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way we confront and deal with this huge challenge from jihadist

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terrorism? I am loved to draw the parallels myself, but do you think

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there are any parallels in the way that... What can we learn from this

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challenge? Certainly there are. For a long time anybody who died for

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Ireland was de facto a good person. A self-sacrificing person. The

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Reggie had these! And that has been -- you were in jihad. They got what

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they wanted, in your eyes. And with the hunger strikers now in Sinn Fein

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land being compared with 1916, they starve themselves to death. They

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committed suicide for Ireland. And were elected to the British

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Parliament in the process. Absolutely. I'm in favour of brutal

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truths. And I'm very proud that Ireland has got to the stage where

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in public arenas you can argue this out, and on the whole people don't

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anymore call you a traitor for suggesting that these people were

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complicated but not necessarily right. Whatever we learn from the

:19:59.:20:07.

past has to feed into a more positive plan for the future. There

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is a growing global population, and the very fabric of the planet is

:20:14.:20:17.

under threat. The ecosystem is changing irrevocably. The reminder

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question can the West survive, can the world survives? We live in

:20:22.:20:31.

Epoque making times, literally. The changes that humans have made in

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recent decades have been on such a scale that they have altered the

:20:34.:20:38.

world beyond anything it has experienced in its 4.5 billion year

:20:39.:20:47.

history. It is a thrilling but uncertain time to be alive. Welcome

:20:48.:20:52.

to the anthropocene, the age of humans. Gaia Vince is a journalist

:20:53.:21:01.

specialising in environmental and social issues. To write her book,

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Adventures in the Anthropocene: A Journey to the Heart of the Planet

:21:06.:21:09.

We Made, she visited 40 countries to document our climate and ecological

:21:10.:21:13.

changes caused by humans affect the indigenous communities of the

:21:14.:21:21.

planet. This is all that's left of the world's highest ski resort. Gaia

:21:22.:21:30.

Vince, explain to me what the anthropocene actually means. The

:21:31.:21:35.

anthropocene really means the age of humans. And it is a geological idea,

:21:36.:21:40.

the idea that humans are fundamentally changing our planet,

:21:41.:21:44.

changing the course of rivers, the temperature of the atmosphere, the

:21:45.:21:49.

chemistry of the oceans, etc, and we have experienced geological changes

:21:50.:21:52.

like this before. You may know of the Jurassic, the time of the

:21:53.:21:56.

dinosaurs. But normally they are caused by something massive,

:21:57.:21:59.

something extraterrestrials like an asteroid impact of organic eruption.

:22:00.:22:04.

And now scientists are saying it is us, we're changing the planet at

:22:05.:22:07.

such a fast rate that we are actually putting lives in danger. We

:22:08.:22:12.

are facing certain crises, of food and water. As I read your book I

:22:13.:22:16.

thought it is amazing how much the human species is able to actually

:22:17.:22:22.

adapt to change, but do you think ultimately the planet can adapt to

:22:23.:22:26.

this species that has kind of expanded beyond control and changed

:22:27.:22:31.

it so much already? There is no threat to the planet. The planet has

:22:32.:22:36.

been over 4.5 billion years and will continue we go extinct or do not.

:22:37.:22:40.

We're quite a recent species. I'm very interested in humans, in us and

:22:41.:22:44.

I come at all these environmental issues I think slightly differently

:22:45.:22:48.

from a lot of people in that I'm interested in, how does it affect

:22:49.:22:53.

us? I love tigers. If Tigers go extinct, is that the problem for us?

:22:54.:22:58.

Does it matter? They are great and charismatic species, but we're not

:22:59.:23:01.

going to starve to death. Doesn't matter if we extinct? Because some

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deep Green would rather we went extinct plants survive. I am not one

:23:07.:23:12.

of them, I am on the side of humans! I would be very sad if humans go

:23:13.:23:15.

extinct. As I have travelled around the world, I have been humbled, I

:23:16.:23:19.

think, by how people who have so little can be so generous. And I see

:23:20.:23:27.

this side to humanity, I think we are a very cooperative, a very

:23:28.:23:31.

empathetic species. Something is definitely going to change. A social

:23:32.:23:34.

structure that we have globally at the moment, where there are a

:23:35.:23:38.

handful of nations that are much wealthier and have a much heavier

:23:39.:23:43.

resource use and other nations, I think that is going to have to

:23:44.:23:47.

change if we are going to see, all of us, a global population, humanity

:23:48.:23:51.

itself surviving and living comfortable it in the decades to

:23:52.:23:55.

come. In Europe there is an imaginary scene at the turn of the

:23:56.:23:58.

next century where everything is kind of OK, we have adapted. -- in

:23:59.:24:06.

your book. There are walkways and bicycle lanes, there is no traffic!

:24:07.:24:12.

Can our political system really make that kind of change? I think we are

:24:13.:24:18.

going to witness enormous changes. That was quite a fun chapter to

:24:19.:24:21.

write because it is completely imaginary, I had to think of what

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possible scenarios we might undertake in the coming decades. But

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I am an optimist. I think we are going to do... I think we're going

:24:30.:24:34.

to do well, I think we're going to survive this and adapt. Part of that

:24:35.:24:40.

future will be governed by artificial intelligence, which is no

:24:41.:24:45.

longer just science fiction, but a central part of our culture. It is

:24:46.:24:52.

written into search engines, robotics, video games, and touches

:24:53.:24:54.

most every aspect of contemporary technology. Professor Margaret

:24:55.:25:02.

Boden's new book, AI, Its Nature and Future, discusses whether artificial

:25:03.:25:08.

intelligence could ever truly be intelligent, creative or even

:25:09.:25:15.

conscious. The apocalyptic visions of AI's future are usury, but partly

:25:16.:25:20.

because of them, the AI community and policymakers and the general

:25:21.:25:23.

public as well I waking up to some very real dangers. And it is not

:25:24.:25:30.

before time. Professor Margaret Boden, what do you think the impact

:25:31.:25:35.

of artificial intelligence will be by the mid-century honour Society

:25:36.:25:42.

and on our way of life? I think a lot of things will be running much

:25:43.:25:46.

more efficiently. Child support, health care, even in medicine.

:25:47.:25:54.

Really every profession. There is a pretty broad concern now that

:25:55.:25:57.

artificial intelligence plus machine learning plus robotics will flatten

:25:58.:26:03.

a lot of jobs that we currently have, and not replace them. I think

:26:04.:26:08.

that is certainly true. And a lot of jobs that even if they don't

:26:09.:26:10.

disappear they will be very much downsized. There are a lot of

:26:11.:26:15.

professional jobs at the moment, a lot of professions where people are

:26:16.:26:18.

already starting to use AI as advisory systems. It won't have to

:26:19.:26:24.

get all that much better... Lawyers? Lawyers, accountants... The thing

:26:25.:26:28.

that worries me most, but there are many things I could mention, is the

:26:29.:26:33.

idea of using AI systems as carers are companions for old people. I

:26:34.:26:40.

think there's absolutely no way that AI is going to be good enough to be

:26:41.:26:44.

able to do that well. Probably ever. Certainly not in the next century.

:26:45.:26:50.

And I think we would be really taking away people's committee and

:26:51.:26:54.

really giving them the rough end of the stick to do that. If we wanted

:26:55.:27:00.

to resist AI, would we just be Luddites, or would there be a

:27:01.:27:06.

justification for it? If you mean get rid of it, forget it. It is

:27:07.:27:10.

impossible. And also I don't think it would be a good thing, but anyway

:27:11.:27:14.

it is impossible. What I think we should do is resist AI taking over

:27:15.:27:19.

in essentially human to human situations where firstly we cannot

:27:20.:27:25.

get it to take over any reasonable fashion, and secondly, we shouldn't.

:27:26.:27:30.

My example of the care homes is just one example of that. Another one

:27:31.:27:36.

would be one-to-one education. And even though some of these

:27:37.:27:40.

educational AI systems can adapt to some extent the individual student,

:27:41.:27:44.

they cannot do it as well as a good teacher can. I think the greatest

:27:45.:27:49.

lesson that AI has taught us is the amazing power and subtlety and

:27:50.:27:52.

richness of human minds. And to equal that is a very big ask. In

:27:53.:28:06.

this programme I have been asking can the West survive? It probably

:28:07.:28:12.

can, but with wars and razor wire around its borders, with a big

:28:13.:28:19.

question over what it stands for, and the lingering suspicion that

:28:20.:28:22.

like all dominating societies, this just might be its sunset.

:28:23.:28:31.

# It's the end of the world as we know it

:28:32.:28:36.

# It's the end of the world as we know it

:28:37.:28:39.

# It's the end of the world as we know it

:28:40.:28:45.

# And I feel fine. # It's the end of the world as we

:28:46.:28:49.

know it # It's the end of the world as we

:28:50.:28:54.

know it # It's the end of the world as we

:28:55.:28:57.

know it # And I feel fine #.

:28:58.:29:00.

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