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The Last Resort

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It was up to my waist, in that room there. The storms keep raging. There

:00:08.:00:17.

is no end in sight. Can we afford to keep the sea out at all cost. If you

:00:18.:00:22.

invest three times what we do now, that is what is needed. Do you know

:00:23.:00:26.

what the cost is? We recognise the demand is going to grow. Stark plans

:00:27.:00:30.

have been drawn for another option, where some communities might have to

:00:31.:00:35.

be abandoned. The cost of defending this place would be too high. Who

:00:36.:00:40.

would buy a house in a flails they know didn't going to be there in 20

:00:41.:00:44.

years time. The shoreline is retreating. You can see it with your

:00:45.:00:49.

own eyes. Let's wake up and smell the coffee, as they say.

:00:50.:01:13.

NEWS REEL: With are having a wonderful time

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here. Wish you were here. Yesterday we went to see the little railway at

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Fairbourne. Fairbourne is famous for its light

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railway and happy holiday memories. A community of homes and businesses

:01:35.:01:38.

at the mouth of the Mawddach estuary. They're already working to

:01:39.:01:41.

get the main attraction ready for another busy season. It's not just

:01:42.:01:45.

the way railway that's in need of maintenance. Like other coastal

:01:46.:01:49.

communities, the winter storms have taken their toll. Sonia Norton moved

:01:50.:01:58.

to Fairbourne 14 years ago. Just liked the house. Looked at several,

:01:59.:02:02.

looked at Llanbedr and Dyffryn and various places. I just liked this

:02:03.:02:06.

house as soon as I came into it. When you have storms, how dramatic

:02:07.:02:11.

does it get? It's lovely. I go up on the top to see it. It's brilliant.

:02:12.:02:15.

It's lovely. Really stormy weather is really good to look at. January,

:02:16.:02:20.

the storm came much closer to home. This is from the front, the very

:02:21.:02:25.

first instant when it came over. It gradually got worse and worse as the

:02:26.:02:30.

morning went on. That's the bit between the two houses. It was like

:02:31.:02:35.

the sea, wasn't it? You're looking at it completely there. That's the

:02:36.:02:38.

bamboo there, look. That's how deep it was at that point. The flooding

:02:39.:02:45.

that you've just suffered? Yes. Did that come as a shock? I didn't

:02:46.:02:49.

think... I mean, I could see it splashing over at the other end of

:02:50.:02:52.

the road there. You could see it very clearly coming over there.

:02:53.:02:57.

We've had sprewn and things like that blowing over when the tide is

:02:58.:03:00.

high. I didn't really expect it to come over, no. When you think that

:03:01.:03:06.

those dragon's teeth and pill box have been there since the Second

:03:07.:03:10.

World War without any disturbance. It was a very, you know, one-off

:03:11.:03:17.

thing, I'm sure. Fairbourne isn't just threatened by the sea. It's

:03:18.:03:20.

also at risk from the river estuary and from water running off the

:03:21.:03:24.

mountains behind. ?6 million has been spent on defences, but as

:03:25.:03:28.

conditions deteriorate, what will it take to keep it and other coastal

:03:29.:03:30.

towns safe? Wales's coastal communities have

:03:31.:03:47.

taken a pounding. Before Christmas, in January, and again this month.

:03:48.:03:51.

After the storms, the clean-up. It's a nice day on the beach today,

:03:52.:04:10.

a month ago the coast of Wales was battered by some of the worst storms

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we've seen in years. Here in Aberystwyth, the clearing up goes

:04:16.:04:21.

on. As weather patterns change, the big question is - how are we going

:04:22.:04:30.

to defend our shores in future? There are hundreds of communities

:04:31.:04:34.

clustered around our coasts. For many, a home by the sea is the

:04:35.:04:38.

dream. According to National Resources Wales, more than 62,000

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homes are at risk of flooding. This winter, the risk became reality in

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Rhyl. This is Ivy and Barry Marson's

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temporary home. They have been here since Christmas because in early

:05:04.:05:06.

December their dream bungalow was flooded by the sea. Nice to meet

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you. It was a Thursday. We got up, my daughter took us shopping.

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Dropped us in Morrisons. My daughter's next door neighbour, Ali

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came, I said, "she is looking ever so worried, I wonder if something is

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the matter". She said "your bungalow is flooded." I says, "flooded has

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the washer gone?" He said "no, it's the sea." I said, "no, I can't

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believe that." We stood the opposite side of the road. When I saw... Did

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see it, I've never had such an experience in my life. I just had a

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cold, shakey feeling and I just couldn't stop crying. Did the issue

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about flooding ever come up at the time when you bought it? No. No-one

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mentioned flooding at all. It was never, never even thought about.

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Because they had built up some of the walls up and put all those rocks

:06:15.:06:18.

by the splash point. Whether that was going to do anything, I don't

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know. No, I was just so happy to be there, in a nice little bungalow, by

:06:23.:06:27.

the sea, which, to us, was a dream come true. Ivy's road is now full of

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skips. She can't bear to see it. The builders are in and home won't be

:06:38.:06:39.

home again until August. Ivy's daughter, Chrissie, was there

:06:40.:06:50.

when the house flooded. It was up to my waist in that room there. In

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here, I would imagine it was about to there. To there. It would have

:06:56.:07:00.

totally ruined everything in this room up to that height? Everything.

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Everything. It just creeped in. It got deeper and deeper. It just

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seemed to be going on and on in a matter of seconds. You must have

:07:11.:07:15.

been frantic? Frantic or adrenaline. We just wanted to try and save as

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much as we could, that we could pick up. We couldn't pick nothing up, it

:07:19.:07:23.

was all under water by then. It frightened you? Yes, certainly, it

:07:24.:07:29.

has. Because what if it had happened in the middle of the night? I

:07:30.:07:32.

wouldn't be here now. I would be in a wooden box in the cemetery.

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There are vulnerable communities all along the North Wales coast. One

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local councillor has been campaigning for years for more

:07:51.:07:54.

sophisticated defences to keep people safe. As far as the coast are

:07:55.:07:59.

concerned, people living here are in the front-line. If 's a rearguard

:08:00.:08:04.

action, armies don't leave their troops, they don't abond o --

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abandon them. The Government has to get behind our residents here and

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help them. We have seen what the sea is capable of doing. The indications

:08:15.:08:17.

are that it's only going to get worse. We have talked to the

:08:18.:08:21.

residents here, they don't want massively high defences here. The if

:08:22.:08:25.

you did that, of course, the consequences, if there is ever a

:08:26.:08:28.

breach, would be even more enormous. It's about creating space for water

:08:29.:08:32.

throughout to the sea, but also using that space in a creative way.

:08:33.:08:38.

In the the winter storms, North Wales was first to be hit, but there

:08:39.:08:42.

was plenty more to come. All around our coasts, sea defences have been

:08:43.:08:51.

battered. In Aberystwyth, Barmouth, Aberdovey, Newgale and here in

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Fairbourne. For Sonia Norton, it's the first real evidence of her

:08:58.:09:00.

vulnerability. So before you moved here, you lived up a mountain? Yes.

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How far up a mountain? 650 feet. When you decided to move here, what

:09:07.:09:12.

attracted you to Fairbourne? Flat land really, because Frank being

:09:13.:09:16.

ill. Yes. Husband? Yes. Better access, yes. That was, basically,

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it. He didn't think I could manage up on the mountain by myself. We

:09:21.:09:26.

knew it would be by myself, he was ill at that point. The issue of

:09:27.:09:30.

flooding or being at risk at all occur to you? No, not at that time.

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It didn't, no. Maybe I was putting my head in the sand. But, no, I had

:09:35.:09:38.

other things to think about at the time. Had you -- had you your time

:09:39.:09:43.

over, would you move here again, knowing what you know? Knowing what

:09:44.:09:48.

I know now, no, possibly not, now I'm here, I don't have any

:09:49.:09:51.

alternative. I'm not going to lose any sleep over it. There's no point.

:09:52.:09:55.

What is the point of worrying about it? Some people here, as elsewhere,

:09:56.:09:59.

comfort themselves with the thought that this was a rare, one-off. But

:10:00.:10:05.

the problem is, our climate is changing. Professor Mike Phillips

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has been studying sea levels in Wales and across the world. We know

:10:10.:10:15.

the sea levels are rising. That isn't a doubt. We know the climate

:10:16.:10:21.

is warming. That's not in doubt. The only debate is the cause of it. But,

:10:22.:10:28.

we have to adapt. One of the things that we're losing. We're losing the

:10:29.:10:34.

natural resilience of the coastline to respond to storms and sea level

:10:35.:10:38.

rise. We have been losing sand dune systems. We have been losing wetland

:10:39.:10:42.

areas, not just here, worldwide. And, by building on the coastline,

:10:43.:10:54.

we've caused the problem ourselves. Aberystwyth promenade, the town's

:10:55.:10:59.

main attraction, and at this point, it's only defence against the sea.

:11:00.:11:03.

Battered and torn to pieces, homes and businesses were also hit. Local

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people volunteered to help with the clean-up. Structural repairs are the

:11:12.:11:19.

problem of the county's engineers. It Rhodri Llwyd's job to supervise

:11:20.:11:25.

the clearup and understand why Aberystwyth suffered so badly. Was

:11:26.:11:28.

an inspection last November, what did that find? Very minor issues.

:11:29.:11:32.

You know, missing pointing here and there. Some missing stone work.

:11:33.:11:36.

Those were rectified in December. So, you know, it was a bit of a

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surprise when the scale of damage that we found in January then. You

:11:41.:11:45.

weren't looking at it as a sea wall, infect? As things stand at the

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moment it is the promenade. It was built in the 1920s and 1930s, as

:11:50.:11:55.

such it was built as a promenade. It provides some coastal defence

:11:56.:11:58.

function, it wasn't really built for that purpose. Even before the

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January events, we were looking at a scheme of coastal defence works for

:12:06.:12:08.

Aberystwyth. That's something we will be taking on into the future

:12:09.:12:12.

now. The race was on to repair the damage from January's storm. In

:12:13.:12:17.

time, for the February spring tides. They made it just in time. On

:12:18.:12:22.

February 1st, it all happened again, another storm brought waves crashing

:12:23.:12:23.

over the promenade. Many of the buildings on the

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promenade have been evacuated and students have been sent home. Until

:12:44.:12:47.

sea defences are put in place many people in Aberystwyth are bound to

:12:48.:12:51.

wonder how many more times they will have to go through this in future.

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Just a short distance to the north is Borth. And the January storm hit

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hard here too. We had various waves that were coming through the top and

:13:13.:13:23.

we had a series of waves coming from this crime and the water was meeting

:13:24.:13:27.

in the middle and getting higher by the minute. On the Monday morning at

:13:28.:13:36.

high tide we had one that actually hit the window sills across the back

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of the restaurant and that was the one way I really did hold my breath

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for a few seconds. I thought we were going to get severely flooded.

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You've got tables and benches. Luckily, I type them all together on

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the Thursday night. Some people thought I was crazy and that the let

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-- water would not get that high but it was a good job I did. Borth

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survived the storm because a new sea defence has just been built. Large

:14:09.:14:11.

boulders hold an artificial shingle beach in place which broke the power

:14:12.:14:23.

of the waves. Your house literally backs onto the beach. You can see

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all the rock. This has been imported to give you some sort of defence but

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what happened on the night of the storm? The storm pushed the shingle

:14:38.:14:45.

on the beach protecting the village up against the houses. The effect of

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that was quite staggering. The sea was powerful but on the other hand

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if we had not had this bank it might have been a lot worse. The top of

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the old defence is barely visible. Many people here believe it wouldn't

:15:05.:15:07.

have protected them. The new shingle defences were built just in time.

:15:08.:15:14.

The look of it is not that good and I sympathise with that view but on

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the other hand, it is a cost and benefit thing. If it does not look

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as nice and what was your before but it protects us better, I can live

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with that. Defences like this might be a solution for other communities

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in Wales. Japp Flikweert is an engineer with an international

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reputation, who's travelled the world dealing with the aftermath of

:15:42.:15:45.

disasters. He advised the US Army Corps how to build safer defences

:15:46.:15:48.

for New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. Now his firm is heading a

:15:49.:15:52.

plan to rebuild beaches across North Wales. Where we are now, there is a

:15:53.:16:02.

benefit at looking at softer defences. Here, they have built up

:16:03.:16:09.

the beach to have both the flood defence benefit and the regeneration

:16:10.:16:20.

benefit. Having the beach in front of this really has an effect on the

:16:21.:16:23.

waves coming in and reduces the damage a storm would cause. But all

:16:24.:16:28.

defences come at the price. The Borth shingle beaches cost ?13.5

:16:29.:16:32.

million to build and an 18 month to construct. It's meant to move, but

:16:33.:16:36.

one big storm moved it all in one night. We were not expecting to be

:16:37.:16:45.

18 months after completing the scheme or that so much shingle would

:16:46.:16:52.

have moved in that time. That is on top of general maintenance. We were

:16:53.:16:57.

expecting to have a machine here for a couple of days but given the

:16:58.:17:01.

events in early January, we are here for a lot longer. Welsh Councils

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estimate it will cost them ?10.5 million just to clean up and repair

:17:06.:17:08.

their sea defences after the recent storms. So far they have been

:17:09.:17:11.

offered ?3.6 million by the Welsh Government. But the cost of

:17:12.:17:14.

defending our coasts in the long term is an even bigger challenge.

:17:15.:17:19.

For Wales in particular, there have been calculations done a few years

:17:20.:17:24.

ago which suggest that if you would invest three times as much as you do

:17:25.:17:28.

now, that is what would be needed to sustain the same level of risks. If

:17:29.:17:36.

you don't increase your investment, the risk would increase. If you

:17:37.:17:44.

increase your investment for times, you would get reduction of risk that

:17:45.:17:51.

the benefits of that would outstrip the costs. So if we want to stand

:17:52.:17:57.

still and maintain the defences we've got, we would have to spend

:17:58.:18:02.

three times more than we are doing? Yes, that's right. And if we don't

:18:03.:18:08.

match that figure, what is the consequence? More households at

:18:09.:18:16.

risk. More people at risk. The Welsh Government say flood defence is a

:18:17.:18:19.

priority, but can they afford to defend all communities in the

:18:20.:18:27.

future? The Minister the natural resources is Alun Davies. We are

:18:28.:18:32.

spending ?240 million across the whole of Wales. If you look at what

:18:33.:18:38.

we need we could spend that twice or three times over protecting homes

:18:39.:18:42.

and properties and businesses and communities across Wales. Do you

:18:43.:18:47.

have a global figure about what the cost is? The demand is going to grow

:18:48.:18:54.

in the future. The sort of investments we are making need to be

:18:55.:18:59.

far more resilient and robust than perhaps we would have assumed a

:19:00.:19:05.

decade ago. Financing sea defences is a problem is net? We already have

:19:06.:19:10.

a risk register and we have an investment plan which I will be

:19:11.:19:15.

revising later this year. The problem is the economics don't add

:19:16.:19:19.

up. Currently, the formula used to decide what should be spent in Wales

:19:20.:19:23.

is based on ?1 million worth of defence to protect ?6 million worth

:19:24.:19:28.

of property. And that means that in future, in financial terms, not

:19:29.:19:31.

every community will be worth defending. For some, the shore

:19:32.:19:36.

management plans for the whole of Wales make tough reading. Including

:19:37.:19:42.

here in Borth. We live in a vulnerable community and the future

:19:43.:19:49.

is uncertain. At least we are safeguarded for the time being

:19:50.:19:57.

however long that is, but a little further north where the golf courses

:19:58.:20:01.

and the dune system at, that is now a little more suspect and I'm not

:20:02.:20:06.

sure what will happen there in the near future. In the short term we

:20:07.:20:12.

are holding the lines and localise repairs but in the longer term, it

:20:13.:20:17.

would be about realignment and will have to have discussions to discuss

:20:18.:20:23.

the most sustainable way of defending this coastline. We don't

:20:24.:20:29.

foresee any major capital investment. It's not just golf

:20:30.:20:38.

courses that are at risk of losing their defences. It's communities

:20:39.:20:46.

too. Communities like Fairbourne. The Seawall here at Fairbourne is

:20:47.:20:50.

the front line of the argument. And from here it's clear to see how

:20:51.:20:55.

vulnerable this community is. But already, the authorities are being

:20:56.:20:58.

advised they cannot defend this community at all cost, because that

:20:59.:21:07.

cost is too high. In future, it will have to be abandoned. The Shoreline

:21:08.:21:16.

plan says after 2025 there will be no new or improved defences, and by

:21:17.:21:19.

2055 everyone will be expected to have gone. Deadlines may slip, but

:21:20.:21:25.

their initial assessment is it's a matter of when, not if, a critical

:21:26.:21:33.

threshold is reached. The enormity of what's being suggested hasn't

:21:34.:21:36.

been lost on the manager of the town's main attraction. I would hope

:21:37.:21:42.

that it would be a gradual process and that they will talk to the local

:21:43.:21:47.

residents and businesses in plenty of time before any kind of process

:21:48.:21:52.

takes place. Any kind of policy that declares there is a cut off point is

:21:53.:21:56.

inevitably going to make house values in the area drop. Could you

:21:57.:22:05.

get a mortgage? It is a difficult judgement call somebody is going to

:22:06.:22:09.

have to make because somebody is going to make themselves very

:22:10.:22:14.

unpopular by saying no more. Ten years will probably see me out. It

:22:15.:22:20.

is not good for Fairbourne as a thriving community because it.

:22:21.:22:27.

People buying in nearly. For the people who are already here, they

:22:28.:22:34.

will probably lasted out. -- last it out. One public meeting has been

:22:35.:22:37.

held in Fairbourne but few attended. Local councillors want people to be

:22:38.:22:40.

aware but may need convincing themselves. There are different

:22:41.:22:45.

opinions. Some people say we have survived the biggest storm surge in

:22:46.:22:49.

living memory and nothing happened. Nobody died, nobody is hurt and

:22:50.:22:56.

there are other people in the village who think, oh no, what is

:22:57.:23:01.

going to happen? We have to face facts. Sooner or later, whether it

:23:02.:23:06.

is 100 years from now or 50 years from now, something might have to

:23:07.:23:13.

happen and you might have to be prepared for that. Eventually the

:23:14.:23:23.

sea will reclaim this land. But it all depends on how the sea rises. I

:23:24.:23:28.

am not giving up the fight because it is all hypothetical. In the past

:23:29.:23:35.

hundred years of the sea has risen 100 millimetres. If that is the

:23:36.:23:43.

case, we will be here for the next 300 years. The shoreline management

:23:44.:23:50.

plan for this area has indicated that 360 millilitres which is a

:23:51.:23:54.

reasonable figure from research I have carried out personally, it

:23:55.:24:00.

means the cost of defending this place would be too high. After ten

:24:01.:24:07.

years the policy will switch to withdrawal. That will be a major

:24:08.:24:12.

problem for the people in the village. People have worked all

:24:13.:24:16.

their lives to buy a property and I don't know what their reaction to be

:24:17.:24:23.

if they had to walk away from it. We would protect our railway lines and

:24:24.:24:27.

other road systems and our high-value economic infrastructure.

:24:28.:24:35.

But communities like this? It is a difficult political decision because

:24:36.:24:39.

the properties that are built here then become blighted. Gwynedd

:24:40.:24:42.

Council adopted the Shoreline Management plan last year. The

:24:43.:24:53.

important thing is that we have an honest discussion and we tell people

:24:54.:24:58.

the facts and we face them and say this is the plan we have to deal

:24:59.:25:03.

with that. What is the plan? The plan is to try and sustain the

:25:04.:25:10.

position in the short-term but in that managed retreat and will have

:25:11.:25:14.

to look at the future of that community. I recognise people are

:25:15.:25:18.

going to be in a difficult position but we cannot leave them on their

:25:19.:25:21.

own and we have to support them in the future. That will mean looking

:25:22.:25:26.

at what the financial cases and looking at matters in terms of their

:25:27.:25:33.

homes and businesses. Are we talking about compensation of some sort? I

:25:34.:25:38.

am not going to come up with that sort of scheme here because it is a

:25:39.:25:43.

matter of detailed discussion with the Welsh Government but we will

:25:44.:25:51.

need to do that. There are 50 communities listed in the Shoreline

:25:52.:25:54.

Management plans for Wales which have been earmarked for some form of

:25:55.:25:57.

managed retreat. In Newgale, Pembrokeshire, that's already begun.

:25:58.:26:00.

Others like Fairbourne are due to begin in ten years, and 40 years

:26:01.:26:03.

from now, Borth and others are scheduled to follow suit. At the

:26:04.:26:13.

moment, managed retreat is not part of our policy. We want to manage

:26:14.:26:18.

shore defences in different ways. That is a big point. Manage retreat

:26:19.:26:24.

is not part of our long-term strategy. Is that the case? Yes. You

:26:25.:26:39.

can't do everything everywhere. What happens to those communities that

:26:40.:26:42.

will be blighted the moment it comes out they cannot be protected in the

:26:43.:26:58.

future? I am not buying the assumption you are making. It is a

:26:59.:27:08.

matter for local authorities. It means I am not buying your

:27:09.:27:13.

assumption on that issue. The Welsh Government has the final say on

:27:14.:27:16.

approval for Shoreline Management plans, but it's the councils and NRW

:27:17.:27:20.

that work on the detail. We understand they do not anticipate

:27:21.:27:26.

major changes. Winter storms are still battering our coastal

:27:27.:27:29.

communities. In many ways this could have been worse. But we're not out

:27:30.:27:33.

of the woods yet. Time perhaps for lessons to be learned. It is a good

:27:34.:27:39.

thing we are doing this now because that should give us the time to

:27:40.:27:46.

adapt society to this increasing risk. If you see it coming, use the

:27:47.:27:50.

time of a generation to make the change. They are communities which

:27:51.:27:58.

don't have much of a future. It is looking like it. This is a matter

:27:59.:28:08.

for the Minister and the Welsh Government cause it is not unique to

:28:09.:28:13.

this part of Wales. We have to come up with a vision of how we see the

:28:14.:28:16.

coastline communities in Wales for the future. The minister says he

:28:17.:28:19.

will announce his new plans later this year. But many on the front

:28:20.:28:28.

line say time is running out. Humanity cannot always go on doing

:28:29.:28:32.

what it thinks it can to hold any line anywhere. I think here they

:28:33.:28:39.

have provided an answer. How long it will last, I am not entirely sure.

:28:40.:28:43.

But hopefully it will last long enough. If they started saying you

:28:44.:28:56.

have to evacuate, you are not going to get any value on the house and

:28:57.:28:59.

you are not going to get compensation. You have to stick it

:29:00.:29:03.

out. Should we as a society defend coastal communities like this

:29:04.:29:11.

regardless of cost? That is a difficult one. Obviously, one would

:29:12.:29:17.

like to think they will but in the real world, I don't think they will.

:29:18.:29:22.

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