What's in It for Me? Referendum Documentaries

This could be any town centre in Scotland.

People shopping, selling, saving.

What we all do nearly every day of our lives.

This is YOUR economy.

And what you're about to choose in the Independence Referendum

could change it for the rest of your life.

In fact, for ever.

And it's not just about what's in your head

and not just about what's in your heart.

Your choice is about what's in your wallet

and the whole country's financial future.

Do you want a Scottish economy driven from Westminster?

Or do you want an independent Scotland to take charge?

It's the question everyone has to ask themselves -

"Would I be better or worse off?"

'With the vote just weeks away,

'I'm meeting some very different people -

'from those making it work...

'to people trying to GET work.

'I want to know what they think about independence

'and their bottom line.'

If we take away the UK government, then we don't have a customer.

If you take that away from me,

you're taking that away from my family.

You're either prepared to take the risk or you're not.

You just have to cut your cloth and, you know, get on with it.

But the heat of the argument

can make it so hard to find out the facts.

What currency are they going to have if they don't have a currency union?

Just answer the question.

Name three job-creating powers.

I've told you!

I just see it as just a cockfight.

'Scotland's workers just want plain answers to big questions -

'about the pound,

'your pay

'and your property.

'So I'm going to get the facts

'from some of the brightest brains in the country.'

Being in the euro's not a terrible idea, is it?

It's not an option. There's a route you have to go down to get there.

So, in terms of the borrowing powers,

what would the difference be?

It would be a higher cost of borrowing,

which would have a knock-on effect

to a higher cost to businesses and to consumers.

When it comes to this vote, for Yes or for No,

it's all about the question at the front of voters' minds.

What's in it for me?

How are you? Good to see you.

MUSIC: "Club Foot" by Kasabian

Slogans, statistics,

opinions and accusations.

Two competing campaigns.

Two opposing visions of what Scotland could look like.

I could not, as Chancellor,

recommend that we could share the pound

with an independent Scotland.

We've gone, in the space of just a few days,

from David Cameron's love bombs to George Osborne's stink bombs.

It suggests to me a panicked reaction.

Your vote will determine which path the economy will take -

which one of two very different directions.

I'm Laura Kuenssberg.

And, for years, it's been my job to find out who is telling you truth.

Whether politicians or chief executives,

I've been straight about the economy.

If it is so convincing, Chuka Umunna,

why is Labour consistently way behind the Government

in terms of trust on economic competence?

This is completely different to the kind of language

that we've heard from the Conservatives for a long time,

not least from you.

As far as the economy is concerned, what will you be trying to achieve?

Does business trust Labour?

Er...pass.

Well, this time, it's doubly difficult.

Not just because it's close to home for me.

But because, despite all of this stuff,

there's so much that we just can't know.

Whether it's the currency we use,

what the tax rates will be,

or how much of the UK's debt

a newly-independent Scotland would have to share.

And there's one more thing to throw into the mix -

Scotland is getting some new economic powers

regardless of the referendum.

So, whatever happens, things are changing.

But who would really make you better off?

They both claim they have an offer you just can't refuse.

Here's Better Together's.

£1,400 UK dividend every year for the next 20 years

for every single Scot.

And the Yes Campaign?

Well, they say the economy would grow under independence

and put money in your pocket.

That amounts to £1,000 for every man, woman and child.

Hang on - they can't BOTH make us better off, can they?

In the campaign,

we've been bombarded with claim and counterclaim,

conflicting arguments everywhere.

There's been so much just to keep track of

that it's been hard to work out who's right.

Sometimes, you just need to take a deep breath.

'Meet Maxine - she does complementary therapy

'and sells crystals in Prestwick.

'You might not find a business like hers on every high street,

'but she runs a small business like so many others across Scotland,'

'working hard to cover costs and turn a little profit.'

I got in it for self-healing.

I mean, I decided that the first 40 years of my life

was just horrendous, and decided that the next 40

was going to be a lot better.

And, I have to say, since I have been doing this,

my life is... I call it heaven on earth.

It might be her haven

but, running a small business, Maxine can't hide

from the economic decisions she has to make every single day.

Choosing whether or not to vote for independence -

and what that will mean for her business - has her stumped.

My heart just cries Yes.

But my head is just...

But, as I say...

..I need answers and just... There's just nothing there at the moment.

I just find this, "It'll be sorted out."

That's like me coming in every day and somebody coming in

and saying, "How much is that crystal?"

"Oh, I'll get it later, I'm not quite sure at the moment,

"I'll just get on to somebody and find out."

It's not going to feed me, basically.

To be honest, at the moment, um...

I just see it as just, um...

I'll say it - a cockfight.

It's just one saying this, one saying that.

Maxine feels, with so much argument, the facts are getting lost.

She needs to know what effect Scotland becoming independent

would have on her business -

starting with what money she would use.

They can't seriously expect that we'll go into the polls

not knowing what currency we'll use.

The pound is our currency.

It doesn't belong to the UK government.

I source all my stock from England.

What is actually going to happen?

You know, nobody's saying about the monetary system -

are we going to be...?

You know, what are we going to have? The pound? Or...?

They're saying that we might not even be in Europe, so are we...?

You know, there's no certainty

in the monetary system that's going to be used.

My purse is not going to really survive on people just saying to me,

"Wait and see - we'll sort it out when we get there."

So it really IS "The economy, stupid," as they say?

It really is, it's right across the board.

When you actually think about it and you come down,

money actually... It does make the world go around.

I mean, we can't live without it.

She's got a couple of big questions she just wants answered,

so she can come to a decision on how she'll vote.

There's no point in just arguing about the pound.

If it's not going to be the pound, what is it going to be?

The second thing that I would want to know about would be the Plan B.

Because, when I put that mark or that tick on that paper that day,

I'm not just putting that tick for me,

I'm actually putting that for generations to come.

I'm going to try to find some answers

to help Maxine make up her mind.

She's like so many businesspeople in Scotland -

ordinary folk who've taken risks, started something up

and put their own money to work,

ultimately benefiting us all, as that hard graft drives the economy.

Most of us work for private companies

and the vast, vast majority of them

are small or medium-sized businesses,

the kind you probably haven't really heard of.

But you're probably familiar with their way of starting the day.

Sizzling sausage and bacon rolls -

the perfect breakfast for hungry workmen.

There you go. See you later. Thank you.

MUSIC: "Tubthumping" by Chumbawamba

And there are plenty of them here

in the middle of this industrial estate in Glasgow,

which means there must be plenty of work.

And that's something George has noticed -

the man who sells them their grub every morning.

There's more units opening up.

Loads of units were opening up for years.

All opening up, but nobody purchasing them.

Now? They're beginning to fill up now, you know?

So it's a lot better now for me.

'And he's not the only one.

'After a tough recession, Scotland's economy

'has been recovering better than many other parts of the UK.

'So, at the moment, things seem to be going well.

'But the question is,

'would an independent Scotland have it as good?

'Round the corner, there's a firm that's more than a century old.

'Ian runs Shearer Candles,

'which has now been in his family's hands for three generations.'

So it's really part of Glasgow's industrial heritage?

Absolutely! Yes, absolutely.

These days, he sells what's made on this Glasgow factory floor

right round the world,

and to the big-name supermarkets in the UK.

But he's worried about the difficulties

an independent Scotland might bring.

The idea of Scotland being its own independent nation

is very attractive.

But, if it's going to cost us...

..it doesn't stack up.

Now, there are those that have said,

"Actually, we're going to be better off."

But I don't see how.

Where is it coming from?

And so let's take, then, the costs that you worry about

that might change, here, for your business.

What might they be and what are the things you're concerned about?

You start to look at, as an independent country,

what we're going to have to pay.

Well, firstly, there's the start-up costs.

Now, you can maybe set that off against,

"It's a nice idea,

"Scotland independent, able to do its own thing,

"and the start-up costs could just be swallowed."

But then you look at the ongoing costs.

There'll be less money,

less disposable income for all the consumers, so...

It's being spent on government departments and so on and so forth

and it's not available to spend on our product, candles.

'Ian says he's likely to vote No

'because of what he feels he might have to deal with

'if independence comes.'

What's in it for you?

A lot of hard work if the vote goes Yes...

..er, for-for no economic gain.

Scotland's still going to be Scotland.

But many of our small businesses

are a long way from an industrial estate,

making a living from our heritage and history.

Welcome to Loch Ewe Distillery,

the smallest and the most unique distillery you'll ever come across.

John and Frances run a small hotel and distillery in the Highlands.

You never stop thinking about your business

and making sure that your bills are paid,

making sure there's money coming in, you're satisfying the Government.

It's really quite intense.

In fact, it's been so tough they've had to shed

all but one of their 15 staff in recent years.

But, despite the challenges, they've managed to hang on.

And they feel political choices

made by the Scottish Government have really helped.

Since the SNP have come into power,

it's definitely helped me in my business.

They believe one of the reasons they've survived

is the way the Scottish Government

has lowered business rates for some small firms.

Because we've now streamlined

and the business is a little bit different now,

it's taken us into that bracket and it's been a great help for us.

Tourists brought a whopping £1.7 billion

to Scotland last year.

It's an important chunk of the economy.

And the Scottish Government says,

if there's a vote for independence, it'll help that along

with a tax cut for airlines and passengers.

Well, it's going to bring more people in.

The likes of... Our local airport here would be Inverness.

So, if there was a different passenger duty,

possibly there would be more flights into Inverness.

And that could mean more business for their hotel.

But, for John and Frances, the referendum is about perspective.

They're more than willing

to put up with any short-term disruption for a long-term benefit.

I suppose you could say that, er...

When we went to decimalisation, everybody kept saying,

"We want to keep the pounds, shillings and pennies."

It's just... We've got to accept change.

You're either prepared to take the risk or you're not.

There are set up-costs.

There's set-up costs if you go and buy and a new house

or there's set-up costs in everything in life that you do -

you just have to...

cut your cloth and, you know, get on with it and work around it.

The people I've met are trying hard

to make their small businesses succeed.

They're grafting, putting in the hours to make their sums stack up.

But, when it comes to independence, they don't have the numbers yet.

No-one does.

And nowhere is that uncertainty being felt more

than in the place that brings in so much of Scotland's income.

I'm right in the middle of Edinburgh's financial district,

where moving money right around the world is big, big business.

And it doesn't like uncertainty.

Yet, at the moment, that's all there is

because the biggest factors that would shape the economy

in an independent Scotland - currency, exchange rates, taxation -

would all be up for negotiation.

And that negotiation will only even happen IF there is a Yes vote.

All of this is creating nervousness in places like this -

a place where it's feared jobs could be on the line.

From a sprawling base outside the city,

one firm more than any other

symbolizes the size and importance of the financial sector.

RBS still employs 3,000 people,

just here at its main site in Edinburgh,

and it's vast -

it even has its own supermarket, its own dry cleaner and hairdresser.

But while most of the people

coming to work here this morning are Scottish,

just like with its rivals, most of their customers are not.

Why does THAT matter?

Well, their customers are mostly in England.

And European laws say companies have to be based

where most of their customers are.

In other words, they could be forced to move.

But, as usual, there's an argument.

Supporters of independence say

because a company's headquarters can just be a registered address,

there'd be no need to shift the actual jobs anywhere.

But even the biggest firms are split over whether they'll stay

or whether they would move.

But there's another important reason why financial firms

may think very carefully about where they're based.

It's who can they turn to for help if the worst were to happen?

Who would bail them out if things went badly wrong?

And at the moment, that's the Bank Of England,

so banks and their customers may feel safer

with that line of financial defence.

But the ultimate question

is what money an independent Scotland would use.

Whether or not it gets to keep the pound, sterling,

with that all-important Bank of England backing.

And, on this one, there is a COLOSSAL row.

The pound isn't an asset to be divided up between the two countries

after a break-up as if it were a CD collection.

The pound is our currency.

It doesn't belong to George Osborne or the UK Government.

If Scotland walks away from the UK, it walks away from the UK pound.

It's as much Scotland's as England's.

So this is why I describe George Osborne's intervention

as bluff, bluster and bullying.

Only one of them can be right.

And whoever that is determines

the destiny of the Scottish financial services industry

and its future role in our economy.

From the biggest issues to the smallest details,

we've all got questions about how an independent Scotland would work.

So I've come to meet two of Scotland's best -

and, importantly, NEUTRAL - economic brains

to help get some things clear.

And we start with the big question -

a currency union - would it matter if we're in...or out?

If we're inside it, we get the benefit of the Bank of England,

the banking sector and financial services

get them as their lender of last resort

and a lot of what we're currently doing stays roughly similar.

If we're not inside that tent,

then we've got no control of monetary policy,

we don't have the Bank of England as our lender of last resort.

So we'd have to have a reserve set aside,

which in itself would suggest either higher taxes or lower spending

to be able to accommodate that currently.

But if an independent Scotland did keep the pound

without having control over interest rates

and being part of the Bank of England,

is that really economic independence?

Well, it's not. As Jo said, you lose control of your monetary policy

and your banks are in a difficult position

because, as Jo says, there's no equivalent of the Bank of England

to whom they can run if they're short of money.

If we couldn't keep the pound,

being in the euro's not a terrible idea, is it?

It's not an option. Partly because there's a...

There's a route that you have to go down to get there

and so Scotland would have to have its own currency for a while

and it would have to obey certain rules for a while.

Scotland would be some way away from those rules.

The euro is a long way from the Scottish Government's mind.

Its plans are based solely on the pound sterling.

But no matter what it uses,

an Independent Scotland would go to the financial markets

to borrow money, just like lots of countries do at the moment.

And that comes back to all of us in interest rates.

Would they be much different from now?

Would it be the same as the UK?

Probably not, the evidence would suggest probably not.

So it would be a higher cost of borrowing,

which would have a knock-on effect of higher costs

to businesses and to consumers.

So what would that mean, then, for Joe Public

if, under independence,

it's likely borrowing for the government would cost more?

What would that mean to you and me?

Well, two sides, I suppose -

one, we maybe end up paying more for our loans and for our mortgages,

but potentially, receive a bit more for our deposits,

because Scottish banks would want to make it attractive for us

to deposit our money with them.

Those are the big issues.

But what about the particular concerns of our workers?

Frances and John have a hotel in the Highlands.

Air Passenger Duty is a really big deal for them.

Frances and John think Air Passenger Duty

actually keeps people away right now.

So how big an opportunity is it

for an independent Scotland to change that?

I think, for an independent Scotland,

probably it will be wanting to promote "Brand Scotland" more

and seeking to expand the tourist industry

and, probably, a reduction in Air Passenger Duty

would do it no harm because it would generate more tax revenue

than they would lose.

Our economists have also given me some answers for Maxine,

our complimentary therapist.

So I'm going back to see if I can help her find a way

through the economic fog.

-Maxine!

-Laura!

Come on in - lovely to see you.

-How you doing?

-Not bad. Good journey?

Yes, very good, and we've been working very hard on your behalf.

Oh, fantastic.

So we've got some experts' answers

and the Scottish government's answers.

-I look forward to hearing them - come on in.

-Thank you.

Shall we have a look and see if you're satisfied

that they make anything any easier?

OK - just press play on the first clip.

On the first one.

-ON VIDEO:

-Maxine has a small business in Prestwick

and does a lot of business with England.

Now, she's worried about how disruptive it might have to be,

if she ran her business in two different currency zones.

How much of a big deal do you think it really would be?

It's not unusual for small companies close to borders -

for example, the Northern Irish-Irish border,

for small companies to deal in more than one currency.

You do have to pay a bit extra

and, after a while, I guess she'd just have to learn

how to absorb those costs.

That make you feel any better?

Not really. A small business - I am a small business -

but, you know, to absorb any cost will have an impact on profit.

Anything that I do have to absorb

will have to actually go on to the customer.

Um...that's fact, basically.

'Maxine also wanted to know if our experts thought

'the Scottish government have a Plan B for the currency -

'one of the biggest questions of the whole debate'

Well, it's not clear, and kind of, in negotiating strategy terms,

probably, the Scottish government are making the right move,

because if they said what their Plan B was,

that would open up a new front of argument.

What do you make of that?

If they had come back and said that they had a Plan B,

basically, I don't know if I would have that much trust in them.

So I really just wanted to gauge what they'd come back and say,

and really, they've given me the answer I thought.

Now, as we sit here, talking about all of this,

you've got a lot to decide -

you've got a lot to decide, the way you're going to vote,

you've got a lot to decide, the impact it might have on your business...

I've got another one for you - I hate to say it,

but I'm actually thinking of selling the house now.

And that's a very big decision.

Well, it's a big decision just now and one yet again, I'm not sure -

Do I put the house on the market

before we have the vote for independence?

Do I wait until after?

Yet again, house prices, how will it affect that?

So I don't know if you can answer that one for me.

We've come back with some answers,

but you're sending me away with a whole lot of new homework.

Well, looks like it, I'm afraid, so...

Right, Maxine, we'll do our very best.

That would be good because that one would be one

that would definitely affect me right now.

Maxine's worried about selling and buying a house.

But in many ways, that's a luxury,

considering over half a million people in Scotland

live in social housing.

That's paid for

by the entire economy with our taxes.

Gowkthrapple Estate is in the 5% of poorest places in Scotland.

I've come to meet Stella -

a young woman who relies on benefits,

including for her place to live.

But that hasn't been straightforward.

She's felt the impact of the Coalition's cuts to benefits,

in particular the Spare Room Subsidy -

'more commonly known as the bedroom tax.'

So this was your building.

Yeah, I used to live over there in a two-bedroom house

but cos there was just me, I couldn't afford the bedroom tax,

so I moved over there.

-You had to move? You had no choice?

-I had to move, yeah.

-OK.

-But you literally just went across the road.

-Just over the road, yeah.

She's not the only member of her family to live on the estate,

or be living on benefits.

-So this is you.

-Yeah, this is my flat here,

but actually, my sister lives up the stairs.

-Your sister's in the same block?

-Yeah.

Shall we go and see if she's in?

It's great.

I hope she's in.

-Hi.

-Hello.

-This is Natalie.

Natalie, nice to meet you - I'm Laura.

Can we come in and have a chat?

-Yeah, course, yeah.

-Thank you.

Both sisters do volunteer work on the estate

because they simply can't find jobs.

Natalie's been searching for a year

and Stella's been out of work for three.

They say they've sent hundreds of applications to employers,

but nowadays, they don't even get replies.

I don't think a lot of people understand -

it feels like, really, you feel quite worthless,

like, you are at the bottom of the line

and that everybody else higher than you

is just looking down on you.

But I don't really know that they really understand the situation.

Unless you're in it,

unless you are actually on Job Seeker's

or have been on Job Seeker's,

it's really hard to understand, like, what we do to make it,

try and find a job and we keep getting turned down.

People will message us, asking if we're coming out and everything.

Obviously, we can't, because we're on the Job Seeker's,

we don't get enough money to have luxuries like that.

So, it's...like, the minimum luxury would be, like,

if we bought ourselves like a can of deodorant or something.

How much do you rely on each other?

-I rely on Stella probably more than she relies on me.

-Probably.

You say you do pretty much everything together,

but you disagree on the big question

that everyone's having to make their mind up about.

-Which we didn't know about until recently.

-Yeah.

I'm definitely staying with No,

but she's definitely staying with Yes.

Stella has been persuaded

by one of the Scottish government's biggest promises -

ending the so-called bedroom tax under independence.

I didn't have enough money to pay for the bedroom tax,

and then they start...they start to take it off your rent,

so you're in rent arrears, which makes you worry even more,

cos you think you're going to get evicted, and...

Yeah, it's a lot of stress.

I think the bedroom tax, losing the bedroom tax

will be good for a lot of people.

What is it you worry about?

The big companies - I'm definitely worried about

losing all those big companies, because it will mean less...

Well, I think it'll mean less jobs

for us and for other people on the dole.

And if there's less jobs,

then obviously, there's less opportunities,

less opportunities to get experience

and we don't want to lose any more opportunities.

But the current government has taken quite a lot away

from people like yourself on benefits.

They also moved people in council houses

when they had one extra bedroom, like your sister.

Isn't it strange that you want to support the system

that's actually taken quite a lot away from your family?

That's really true, but I think...

That would be one thing that I would probably agree with,

to get that changed, because it has affected my sister a lot.

But I think there's so much change that's going to happen,

that's what scares me.

So it's not worth, in your view, it's not worth voting Yes

just to get rid of the so-called bedroom tax?

No, just for one thing, no - definitely not.

In fact, the Scottish government has already been acting

to cancel out its effects.

But the so-called tax has been such a sore point

that for many, it's come to sum up the fundamental differences

in attitudes to welfare between many Scottish voters

and the current Westminster government.

What's the advantage that you see?

I thinks it's more of a change -

like, it's not good right now,

so obviously something needs to change.

So I think independence, it would give us more...more power,

like, it would give us more of a say

to what we already have,

cos I don't feel like we have a say at the moment.

They'd be able to change things

without having to go through everywhere else first.

The Westminster government has been attacked

for how it's tried to cut back on benefits.

But the bill is huge and keeping up spending would be a challenge

for any new Scottish government.

But imagine having a home here -

not in the poorest, but one of the richest parts of Scotland,

a place where prosperity is there for all to see.

Aberdeen has some of the most expensive property

in the whole of the UK.

In fact, the market is the hottest outside London.

Plenty of people with plenty of money to spend.

Because for 40 years,

Aberdeen has drawn wealth from black gold.

It's the oil capital of Scotland and the UK.

You know, we've all heard again and again

that an independent Scotland would have to rely on money from oil.

Because the income from that industry

would help determine Scotland's potential wealth in a big way.

And although there's debate about the numbers,

the income doesn't feel like it's waning in Aberdeen.

Down here in the docks,

you can see the scale of this industry -

you can almost feel the wealth and the power

and it's giving new opportunities to a whole new generation.

And you find them in exclusive cocktail bars -

the playground of a new, wealthy breed of smart young things

making their way in an industry

where, if you've got the right mix of skills,

there's still a lot of opportunity.

Rory Davin is a chemical engineer.

He and his colleague Andy Cowan

work together at a big-name oil company.

I've seen some change -

people, sort of, more reluctant to spend in recent months,

certainly some of the big contractors,

such as Wood Group and AMEC,

have made some wage cuts to contractor salaries.

So you have seen a slight change in the industry,

but I think, on a whole,

there's still a positive, buoyant atmosphere around Aberdeen

and people still willing to invest.

But I think, going forward, there might be a bit more reluctance

with Scotland going...the potential for Scotland to go independent.

Andy, you practically sit next to each other in the office,

what do you make of that?

A lot of what Rory says is... there's a lot of truth in it,

but you know, the amount of investment

that's in the North Sea at the moment is at a 30-year high.

Now, there wouldn't be that level of creation of new infrastructures

and, you know,

that type of investment

if there wasn't a bit of confidence in the long-term future.

Yes, there's going to be hiccups along the way.

Yes, there will be things that will get thrown in that we never saw,

but, yeah, I would say that the confidence in the industry

just now is fairly high and it's quite a buoyant place to be.

There's lots of dispute about the potential numbers in the future -

what the tax take might be next year, year after,

2020s, 2030s.

There's no agreement on that.

What there is agreement on is that productivity has been going down

and down quite significantly.

Is that not something that worries you?

There's graphs available where you can see the production rates from the early '80s are huge,

you know - just, like, mind-boggling figures of oil and gas

that was being produced through the Fortes Field, etc.

And I don't think we're ever going to see

that level of production ever again.

You know - maybe, potentially, we may go back up the way,

but I think, you know, the trend is that it's going to go down the way.

But I think you've got to have

a level of confidence in the extraction process,

how much we can still get out of the ground -

they reckon, from some of the reports,

that there's as much oil to be taken as has already been taken.

That's what I would say -

the likes of basing a Yes vote on the fact

that you've got the oil reserves in the North Sea

sort of falls down a bit

because there's places like Brazil, Angola,

where you can get more challenging oil but for a cheaper rate

and therefore, your return in investment is a lot more secure.

So to what extent do the boys think

an independent Scotland's finances should rest on oil profits?

As reserves deplete over time, I think that...that income source

will start to dwindle with it

and will they have enough supporting industries to help maintain

a healthy Scotland for all citizens involved?

I don't know.

It's not like if you took away the oil and gas, all of a sudden,

Scotland's going to fall on its backside.

I think that's completely wrong.

You know, there's plenty of strengths that Scotland has

to stand on its own two feet

and I think that that's where maybe I'm a bit more of an optimist -

I'm not saying that Rory's a pessimist.

I might have to sit next to him at work and listen to him every day,

but, no, he's a fairly optimistic guy as well.

But I certainly think that, you know, I certainly try to look

to the positives of the argument.

Just in the last few days,

arguments over how much North Sea oil is left have grown.

Sir Ian Wood, one of the most influential figures in the industry,

says there's not nearly as much as the Scottish government thinks.

Other experts agree with them, though -

that huge amounts remain

and new investments could reap significant rewards.

We all know, though, no matter how much of it remains to be found,

oil and gas under the North Sea can't last for ever.

The Scottish government believes green energy

could help take its place,

providing significant numbers of new jobs.

The industry says it already provides work for 11,000 people.

From farms to remote villages,

lots of small wind turbines are doing their bit

as well as the big ones we see on our hills.

Owen's firm makes turbines for those smaller buyers.

And it's his lucky job to check they're working.

There's nothing more I like better than the smell of cows

and agricultural equipment.

We'll have a quick look at the control systems as well,

check the logs on them, make sure there's been no errors on them.

Three years ago, Owen lost his job in London

in the upheaval of the property crash.

He took a gamble and decided to come home,

betting on an industry he thinks will keep him in work

for years to come.

Sustainability -

it's a horrible buzz word,

but I mean that in the sense that it's a sustainable industry.

It's become accepted, it's not "hippies" -

it's people understanding

that they need to hedge against rising energy prices.

And to do that, it's having your own power station.

Despite being a clean source of electricity,

wind turbines aren't to everyone's taste.

In England, the Conservatives say

they'd cut industry support for turbines on land

if they win the next general election.

The Scottish government has very different ideas.

One of the big problems that we have

is getting these machines through planning.

I think because the Scottish government

is so much more favourable towards renewables, you know,

that does filter down into the guidelines

to the local councils.

Now, should we go independent,

I would expect to see an increase in that.

I would expect to see planning laws, planning regulations,

relaxed to the extent that, you know,

this is just considered another piece of capital equipment

for...users, for end users.

Relaxing those rules would significantly help the industry.

But independence could mean the renewables business

loses something else.

Right now, the sums for this industry only really stack up

because of heavy subsidies -

cash that's paid out by you and me.

Where does that come from?

Believe it or not, it's a part of YOUR electricity bill.

In fact, government figures show that last year,

renewable energy in Scotland

was given over £560 million in subsidies.

In an independent Scotland, there would be fewer bill payers

and fewer taxpayers.

So would the country be equally prepared or able

to pay the industry's way?

Some people would say that we're chasing the subsidies,

and to a certain extent, that is true.

At the moment, we need those subsidies

to make the finances add up.

Eventually, we'll have the technology

and the manufacturing processes down so that, as I say,

the levelised cost of electricity is truly competitive

with buying it from a coal-powered power station or a nuclear station.

As far as the independence question for us,

obviously, the Scottish government is again very progressive

with its green promises and certainly a focus on renewables.

As a whole, the UK government

perhaps could have done a little bit more.

The future for the industry in Scotland,

the jobs it can create, the size it could achieve,

could be very different, depending which way you vote.

How much can workers like Owen,

who work already in renewable technology,

how much could they rely on subsidies that go to that industry

from the UK government staying under an independent Scotland?

There's a huge dependence

on the average electricity bill payer

in Birmingham, in Manchester, in Liverpool,

many of whom are arguing at the minute

that utility bills are too high.

We currently see 60 million-plus people

being able to support that.

We'd been reliant on 5 to 5.5 million people.

That does significantly increase the individual's household bills,

so again, it comes down to political choices.

So, for the moment, it still comes back to oil.

But remember, the workers we met had very different views

on its importance.

People always talk about the oil industry and what can come

out of the North Sea in terms of the independence debate.

How much is this really about what happens to the oil money?

I think oil is...

Oil seems to be the critical factor in deciding whether or not,

financially, we could go it alone. Certainly short-term.

If Scotland became independent,

then its kind of terms of trade would vary quite a lot with

the price of oil because, relative to its size.

Now, oil would become a much, much more important export

than it has been in the past.

And with so many variables,

is it possible to say, categorically,

whether or not the oil industry would do better off or worse off

under an independent Scotland?

It's very difficult to say, it seems to me, because

if the amount of oil actually being produced in the North Sea

gradually declines, it's still the case it seems to me that

Aberdeen can continue to be one of the major centres of expertise

for oil, exploration and development in the world,

without a shadow of a doubt.

But it's not just Aberdeen where Scotland's engineering might

is bringing in money.

Money from Her Majesty's forces

to build vast vessels like this.

The fortunes of this industry are felt everywhere

in this part of the world.

And this is where it happens -

thousands of jobs, billions of pounds being spent,

British ships being built with Scottish hands.

In the past, now and into the future,

it's vital for the Scottish economy.

And after centuries of tradition,

this is what their work looks like in 2014 -

an engineering marvel.

This summer, the Queen Elizabeth II aircraft carrier was named

in a ceremony filled with pride for the men and women

that built her in Scotland's shipyards.

Men like Craig, a dock worker in Govan.

Been in there 16 years,

probably built at least six or seven ships now since then,

ranging from the last destroyers through to offshore patrol vessels.

You can always say, yes, it's a UK ship,

but it's Scottish-built, it's Clyde-built,

and it's important that we keep that phrase, Clyde-built.

But Craig is deeply sceptical about the chances of that happening

if Scotland becomes independent.

In the past, he's spoken up for Better Together.

If there's a Yes vote, the yards will stay open for a while

until contracts are sorted out between the two governments.

I don't know how long that will take,

but what I do know is, that, in the future, I won't be working there.

One way or another, because the UK government is our customer,

and if we take away the UK government, by coming separate,

then we don't have a customer.

-DAVID CAMERON:

-Under this government,

we'll have aircraft carriers, type 45 destroyers,

the new frigates, the hunter-killer submarines.

And there's something else they should know -

if there was an independent Scotland,

we wouldn't have any warships at all.

But Alex Salmond begs to differ.

-ALEX SALMOND:

-You can build the best warships in Scotstoun and Govan

with the best facilities as British Aerospace have indicated last year.

INTERVIEWER: But after a Yes vote, they'd be in a separate country.

Yeah, but it's the best place to build.

And Alex Salmond says an independent Scottish government

would be building ships.

The White Paper commits to building four frigates -

all destined for Scottish shipyards.

But Craig has doubts.

In reality, that's short term.

That's only four to five years' build.

So, once again, we'd be relying on the government to give us something

else, and commercial shipping, that's just not going to happen.

Why?

Because competitors round the world can do it much, much more cheaply.

So, for Craig, it's a stark economic choice

and one that comes right to his front door.

As a working man, all I want to do is go to work the next day.

I want to pay my bills.

I want to have a car.

I want to have a holiday, once a year.

I don't ask for much, because I know my position,

and that's all I'll ask for.

If you take that away from me,

you're taking that away from my family.

And if the Scottish government believe that they can...

keep me to the standard that I've been used to for all these years,

then good luck to them, but I don't think they can.

But how much protection is really had by staying in the Union?

When it comes to Scottish defence jobs,

simply being part of the UK has been no guarantee of anything.

MoD cuts have hit hard in Scotland.

Something the community of Leuchars in Fife knows all too well.

Kevin, what are all these stickers then?

These are the stickers left by the various Squadrons

and divisions that have been stationed here throughout the years.

Wow. So, this is like the history of Leuchars then?

Yes, you could say that.

Kevin Gilchrist comes from an RAF family

and an RAF town.

Leuchars WAS the proud home of a Typhoon Squadron.

But three years ago,

it was decided that it would no longer function as an RAF base.

The community,

whose identity and economy was built round the base,

has been left reeling.

So far, the effects have been

a sort of general depressant on the economy locally.

On the whole, it's just drained a sort of an amount of life

from the economy.

I think it will probably be the death of the place.

The plan is that an army unit returning from Germany

will move in to Leuchars.

But they'd be far fewer in number

and nothing is secure for ever when it comes to the military,

especially when it comes to defence in Scotland.

People feel betrayed by this administration, this government.

It just wasn't at all what people were expecting, I don't think,

they weren't expecting the cuts to be this deep,

to be so ill-explained.

Unionists would say the way the military's protected,

the way places like this should be protected is only if the UK

stays together, but can you trust that message?

I fundamentally don't think you can.

I think if people are going to vote no,

as an attempt to safeguard communities like Leuchars,

they're going to be in for a shock if a No vote is delivered.

These closures are part of an ideological stance

by the current government that's looking to close down

and cut public spending to the maximum amount and that attitude

will continue regardless of whether or not we vote for independence.

And he doesn't believe the Scottish government would be able to

support the defence industry and the local jobs it brings.

As someone from a military family,

I have to say there's very little in it for me.

An independent Scotland would be unable to provide

the kind of jobs, the kind of infrastructure

and the kind of support that the United Kingdom traditionally has.

I think either way,

we're going to end up getting lost and forgotten about.

But how much do the economies of Scottish towns REALLY rely

on the military bases within them?

One of Scotland's biggest and most controversial military assets

is here at the Faslane naval base, just outside Helensburgh.

It's the home of Trident, the nuclear submarine.

Graeme McCormick is a solicitor who lives on the edge of Helensburgh.

He's an SNP member who wants to see the subs out of Scottish waters

but not just because they're nuclear weapons.

He's concerned at the long-term economic effect

the base has had on the town.

The base is not really part of the community,

it's apart from the community in so far as the service personnel

never really need to leave the base.

There is a small shopping mall.

There are sports facilities, there are leisure facilities,

generally very well subsidised.

While some traders say the base helps them,

Graeme says it's created a deeper problem in the area,

reflected in its house prices,

which aren't recovering as well as the rest of Scotland.

There is a feeling that Helensburgh and Lomond

is not as an attractive place to come and live

because of the nuclear element.

There are some people who are not keen to live in an area

which has such a large concentration of nuclear weapons.

The Scottish government says with independence,

they'd chuck the nuclear weapons out

and make Faslane the headquarters of a new Scottish defence force.

Graeme believes that would rejuvenate the area.

There will be people that will have real decision-making power,

there will be good jobs,

influential people who will live here

and as a result of that,

we will also have service personnel

who will live and work in the community.

If we have conventional forces here,

living and working in this community, then immediately,

we have a tremendous boost to this economy and we can drive it forward.

We need young people, we need young vibrant families

to come and live and work in this community,

otherwise the community will just descend

into a glorified, eventide home.

It's as simple as that.

And that's a problem facing all of Scotland, not just Helensburgh.

We have an ageing population, and there aren't enough young people

to cover the cost of caring for our elderly in the coming years.

Under independence, the Scottish Government says

it would keep all of the protections pensioners currently enjoy

and introduce some more.

But it's likely pensions would also be the biggest

chunk of the benefits bill.

Could an independent Scotland afford pensions at the current levels?

It's political choice. I mean, to say it's not affordable suggests

that the £60 billion that Scotland would effectively control

isn't enough to fund pensions, but clearly it is.

But the implication is, if you're funding pensions at that level,

there are implications for areas

where you're not then going to be able to afford that,

so, it isn't, in itself, unaffordable,

it's what you're doing with the rest of the money.

And that's where an independent Scotland's borrowing would

come in again - think of it as the country's credit card.

And just as for the rest of us,

the question is how much you should use it.

I mean certainly borrowing more to invest is attractive

and it partly comes down to what kind of story the government

of the day could tell the markets about how it was borrowing,

what it was using it for,

how it was going to pay its debt down over time,

to get them comfortable that this wasn't profligate spending

just to fund annual running costs,

so there is a way of being able to explain that story but it needs

to be a very, very clearly defined story with very clearly defined

sets of fiscal rules, which we don't yet, which we don't yet have.

The Scottish Government says it would borrow billions of pounds,

in part to reverse some of the cutbacks of recent years,

years that have been so difficult for Natalie and Stella.

Natalie's worried about an independent Scotland

because she thinks big companies might be more likely to leave,

and she's looking for work.

Is that a realistic fear?

I think to suggest that big companies will move

lock, stock and barrel is just...

It just doesn't seem feasible.

And at the moment, Scotland has got a very good track record

in managing inward investment.

Stella had to move house because of the so-called bedroom tax.

How straightforward would it be to get rid of that?

Because the Scottish government have said that they would.

Is it straightforward?

I don't think it's too difficult.

I mean you can see...

Actually what the logic of it all was that

you should try to avoid situations

where people are under-occupying their houses.

Of course, the way it's been implemented has

really left a lot of people very upset, understandably so.

But overall, the cost is not all that great.

And talking of houses, there's one more job I have to do.

I'm back with Maxine

who couldn't decide whether or not to sell her house.

You asked us to try and find out what the timing

of the referendum might mean for you buying or selling this place.

-Let's have a listen to what they had to say.

-OK.

Well, there's so much uncertainty.

If we have a Yes vote, you know,

there's so much to be negotiated that she could wait a long time

before she could see the ground being totally clear.

So, if she desperately wants to sell the house, she's got it,

I would suggest now rather than wait.

Yeah, you know the fundamental value of the house to her is not

going to change depending on what the constitutional arrangement is,

so if she really feels she wants to buy this house,

I would still go for it,

as long as she feels that she's got the capacity to pay for the house

and that she doesn't do anything that might cause her to end up

with debts in the wrong currency, I would just go for it.

Well, I find that actually quite scary.

He's saying go on with it on the condition...

Oh, my goodness.

Sounds as if I might be moving into the shed for a little while.

THEY LAUGH

As long as I don't get into debt into what currency.

I find that actually...

I find that the scariest answer,

although it's come across as the most casual answer,

you know, it's...go ahead but...

but be it on your own head kind of thing.

Well, as I say, that is something that I feel as if...

I'll need to think about a heck of a lot more.

The people I've met each have their own hopes

and fears about what an independent Scotland could mean.

How YOU make ends meet will help you decide how to vote.

It's a balance of risk and reward on both sides.

And remember a No vote does NOT mean sticking with the status quo.

It's important to realise, in any case,

the way Scotland's economy is run is changing.

The parliament will soon be able to raise more tax

and borrow its own money - more control.

The flip side is a cut in the grant from the rest of the UK

but whichever way the referendum goes,

the balance of economic power is already shifting.

Shifting toward Holyrood

and shifting toward the Scottish people

as more economic control is handed over.

The question for you is whether that's enough.

We're not getting all the answers from our politicians.

So what advice would our experts give on how to make up your mind?

People have to judge -

who do you think the winners and losers are going to be?

Where do you think the safety net is?

And how do you compensate the losers?

And if you can answer that and feel comfortable with that

then that will tell you what your vote would be.

And as you prepare to go to the polls,

it's worth paying close attention to the details of the offers

both sides are making to you.

People could try their best to understand the arguments

that are being made on both sides,

and try to sort out those that are, clearly, a little bit

imaginative, let's say, from those that are grounded in reality.

Then, you know, it seems to me

that that's the best course of action that people can take.

We've tried to help Maxine to do that - to answer some of her

questions about the economics of an independent Scotland.

So now it's time to see if SHE can answer the biggest question of all.

Have you decided which way you're going to vote yet?

In one answer, no.

I'm still waiting to be convinced, to be honest.

Do you think you will be able to decide?

On the day, I'm going to have to.

There's two boxes in there - a yes and a no -

and I am going to very much vote,

so, yes, I am going to decide.

But to be honest with you, I think it'll to be down to the wire.

It will be down to on the day and to see who convinces me.

And if you haven't got faith in them,

-you've always got crystals.

-I've always got my crystals.

THEY LAUGH

Perhaps more than at any time of our lives, this vote really does matter.

We can't ignore it.

There are questions about how an independent Scotland would

make ends meet that we just can't answer yet.

So whether you're thinking about your bank balance, your job,

your pension or the whole country's future potential prosperity -

whether it's yes or whether it's no, you have to consider

what's really in it for you?