John O Brennan The Richard Dimbleby Lecture

Global insecurity, international terrorism, cyber warfare -

Former CIA director John Brennan sets out how

we can stay safe in an ever-more turbulent world.

Welcome to the 2017 Richard Dimbleby Lecture.

No terrorist campaign has ever succeeded. Almost everything you

touch uses the internet. We have always been fascinated by the secret

services. This contraption has saved millions of lives. If we fail the

earth, we fail humanity. Welcome to the annual

Richard Dimbleby Lecture, Named after my father,

the BBC's first war reporter, who went on to become the most

eminent broadcaster of his era. A chance for outstanding individuals

in the social, cultural, scientific and political story

of our times to reflect on the great issues of the day from his or her

personal perspective. This evening's lecturer

illustrates that point. Until January this year,

he led the West's most powerful intelligence agency -

the CIA - the eyes and ears An institution with huge

responsibilities and, inevitably, For more than 30 years,

in a variety of roles, John Brennan has been at the heart

of the US Intelligence Community serving six presidents:

latterly Bill Clinton - a former Richard Dimbleby

lecturer incidentally, just before stepping down

as Director of the CIA, he hit the headlines by castigating

the then President-elect, Donald Trump, for tweeting

about grave national security issues without understanding them

adequately and for likening the US intelligence services

to those of Nazi Germany. That is not, however,

at least directly, the focus of this evening's lecture,

which embraces globalism, leadership, America's

role in the world, cyber The CIA's motto is, "And you shall

know the truth and the truth What a launch pad, as he explores

the challenges of staying safe I would like to start

by thanking Jonathan for that I also want to thank the BBC

for extending to me the great honour of delivering the 2017

Richard Dimbleby Lecture. After I received the invitation,

I did a fair amount of research on Richard Dimbleby and his life's

story as well as on the 40 lectures delivered by a wide variety

of luminaries in years past, which has only served

to further humble - if not unnerve - me,

as I stand here before you tonight. At a time when the importance

and role of the free press is under attack in many quarters,

and when there is a desperate need for informed and thoughtful

commentary on national and world events from broadcasters

and reporters alike, Richard Dimbleby's outstanding

professional record and pioneering broadcasts should stand

as a sterling example to all who are in - or aspire to -

the field of journalism. Before I go any further,

I must stress that I appear before you this evening simply as a private

American citizen. I left government on 20 January

after nearly four years as CIA Director and,

immediately before that, four years as Deputy National Security Advisor

and Assistant to the President for Counterterrorism

and Homeland Security. I have never been a Democrat,

a Republican, or a member And so, the views I express tonight

are my own and should not be interpreted as reflecting those

of the CIA, the US Intelligence Community,

or the current - or any past But I know that I speak

for all Americans when I extend deep and heartfelt condolences

to our British brothers and sisters for the senseless act of wanton

violence that took place less than two weeks ago,

in the heart of London. Our thoughts and prayers

go out to the families and friends of those,

Britons and non-Britons, who perished and were

injured in that attack. As well as to the victims

of the heinous attack I also want to note how

grateful I am that so many old friends and colleagues

from the United Kingdom Hmm, maybe it's best for me

to say "longstanding" friends and colleagues,

lest I dispel any lingering notions Along these lines, I can say

without reservation that in my 33 years of public service

in the United States, as an intelligence professional,

diplomat, and policymaker, it was my British colleagues

with whom I worked closest, from whom I learned the most,

and for whom I had the deepest and It certainly was my experience

that the strong bonds of partnership, friendship,

and shared values that exist between our two great nations

are manifest daily in the personal interactions and collaborative

work between British That was not an easy

acknowledgement for a very proud Yes, I am the son of

an Irish immigrant. I grew up in a blue collar,

lower-middle class neighborhood in New Jersey, which is why

I still find it somewhat surreal to be introduced as someone who had

the high privilege for four years to be Director of the Central

Intelligence Agency But whatever the reason

for my ascendance to that most important position,

I think the journey that led me to become Director

of the CIA began in June 1974, when I set off on a trip

that would fundamentally I had just finished my first year

at college, a mind-expanding experience under Jesuit tutelage

at Fordham University in the Bronx, New York,

when a cousin of mine invited me At the time, my cousin

was a diplomat at the US Embassy in Jakarta, serving as the Food

for Peace Officer for the US Agency I had always been fascinated

by my cousin's experiences abroad, So, at the tender age of 18,

I set off for Indonesia after I pillaged my modest bank

account and bought a round-trip but multiple-stop plane

ticket to Jakarta. To help defray the cost of my trip,

I convinced one of my political science professors at Fordham

to grant me credit toward my degree if I wrote a paper on oil

and politics in Indonesia I had a brief but oh-so enlightening

initial glimpse into the wonders, the contours, and the dynamics

of this beautiful world. Indonesia was just emerging

from the economic devastation wrought by nearly 20 years

of the authoritarian and bloody rule Squalor was widespread

and beyond anything and there was almost

nothing in between. And population

pressures were overwhelming. But I was also struck

by the tolerance evident in the nation with the world's

largest Muslim population. I rode motorcycles across the island

of Java, marvelled at the world's largest Buddhist temple,

the Boroboudor, and surfed on the And it was in these latter

excursions that I interacted with, and talked to,

people from entirely different life experiences, different cultural

norms, different religious beliefs, It was an intense two-month seminar

on just how special, how thrilling, and how diverse life

is on our planet. It was in that summer of 1974

that my wanderlust, and my deep fascination with the diversity,

the scope, and the dynamism of the world's riches, challenges

and opportunities were born. They were further nurtured

by extended study the following year at the American University in Cairo,

where I experienced the history and the beauty of the Arab

world for the first time. And it was in August of 1980,

when I joined what I believe was then and still remains

the world's premier I joined the CIA for

two principal reasons. The most proximate and compelling

reason was that my wife told me in the spring of 1980 that

I was getting a bit too comfortable as a doctoral

student in university life, and she said I needed to get a real

job to help pay the bills. So I knew I needed to get a job

but I chose to be an intelligence officer because I believed it had

the potential to give me unique insight into,

and a deeper understanding of, this fascinating world

and the people who inhabit it. And so, during 33 years

of government service, I was most fortunate to visit over

60 countries, meet and discuss world events with foreign dignitaries,

and wander along some of the most historic, the most troubled,

the most depressed, and the most vibrant places on this earth,

talking to as many people I provide this brief,

autobiographical backdrop to let you know that my assessment

of the current world and its trajectory is based

on a very personal point of view that has been formed by my life's

journey as a son of an immigrant as well as a traveller,

student, intelligence officer, diplomat, adviser

to Presidents, and CIA Director. I confess that the idealism

of my youth, while tempered only somewhat by age and geopolitical

realities, still burns And that is because,

throughout the course of my career and world travels,

I found that despite the many differences in language,

religion, race, ethnicity, and background that exist

throughout the world, the overwhelming majority of people

on this earth share the same basic aspirations -

life, liberty, and happiness, which is consistent with a life free

of violence, economic hardship, political repression,

and ill health. They want to live peaceably among

family, friends, and neighbours. They want a better life,

and more opportunity, for themselves And as I look through my prism

and into the future, there are five powerful trends

and developments I worry about that I would like to share with you -

the quality of our political leaders, the complexity of cyber

security, the corrosive nature But first, let me discuss the other

two - the power of globalism On globalism, I am the first

to acknowledge that I consider myself a globalist because of my

life's experiences and worldview. And I am quite mindful of the fact

that I am now treading into dangerous political waters,

as the value and inevitability of "globalism" are in dispute -

if not disrepute - in many parts of the world,

including, sadly, in the United States,

on the European continent, and right During my short lifetime,

the world undisputedly has become much more interconnected

and interdependent, owing to the tremendous advancement

in the processes and mechanisms for communication, transportation,

commerce, tourism, This phenomenon of globalisation has

greatly facilitated and accelerated the movement of people,

goods, technology, health care, innovations, and services

across sovereign borders. And most profoundly,

the explosion in the breadth, capacity, and ubiquity

of the digital domain - and especially social media -

over the past two decades has made the world much more intimate,

conjoined, and interoperable. There should be no doubt in anyone's

mind that globalisation has directly facilitated civilisation's great

progress and has immeasurably advanced the human condition

throughout the world over But despite all the positive

dimensions of globalism, the phenomenon also brings with it

downsides - including risks, challenges, and dangers -

many of which we are all aware and others with which we

are still grappling. In some quarters, the movement

of people and the mixing of cultures is viewed with anxiety,

suspicion, and fear, especially among those who view

the arrival of external influences as threatening to their livelihood,

their identity, and their security. Inequality in wealth

and opportunity, moreover, is attributed by many to the more

intertwined global economy and accompanying

technological advancements. Indeed, there are too many places

across our developed countries where workers and families feel

they are bearing the costs but realising few of the benefits,

of our increasingly These are real concerns,

and they must be addressed. Unfortunately, however,

these fears are too often fuelled by politicians who overstate

the degree to which domestic political, economic,

and social challenges are attributable to

foreign influences. In reviewing previous Dimbleby

lectures, I noticed that many speakers, especially over the last

two decades, highlighted the growing importance

of the phenomenon of globalism. President Bill Clinton,

in December 2001, pointed to the need for all of us

"to develop a truly global consciousness about what our

responsibilities to each other are and what our

relationships are to be." He did this three short months

after the tragedy of 9/11 that resulted in the death of 3,000

innocent men, women, And for all the death

and destruction that took place on 9/11, the world seemed to become,

from my point of view, a bit more united in its aftermath,

as governments and people from around the world committed

to join together to destroy the forces of evil that sought

to divide us. At the CIA, we were deluged with

offers of support from intelligence services around the world to join

the fight against Al-Qaeda. And to dispel any notion

that the United States Government held Islam responsible for

Osama Bin Laden's murderous agenda. I vividly recall the words

of President George W Bush nine days after the 9/11

attacks when he spoke publicly to Muslims and said

"We respect your faith. It is practised freely by many

millions of Americans and by millions more in countries

that America counts as friends. Its teachings are good and peaceful,

and those who commit evil the terrorists are traitors

to their own faith, trying, From my vantage point,

it is even more important today that we do not blame a religious

faith for the violent acts of those who distort

its teachings for evil purposes. I realise that much has changed

in the past 15-plus years and that political upheaval,

sectarian conflict, and economic despair in far off lands

and demographic differences among nations have resulted in mass

migrations, stressing the absorptive capacity and economic resources

of many destination countries. Resulting frustration

has found expression in the growth of authoritarian,

nativist, and unilateralist impulses, which have long been

the domain of xenophobic fringe movements that have preyed

upon fears that national identity is being diluted

because of the influx Now, however, this reactionary

ideological fervour has pushed its way into the political

mainstream in many countries, bolstering nationalist

and protectionist sentiment at the expense of political,

economic, and even I have had the good fortune to visit

21 of the 28 current member states of the European Union,

and I have always been impressed at how Europe,

especially in the aftermath of the devastation of

the Second World War, has derived strength

from its diversity and shared experience as well as influence

from its global consciousness. My wish for my European friends

is that recent challenges that are part of the evolutionary arc

of history do not prompt you to retreat into a false sense

of security through ultranationalism and isolationist

practices and policies. My appreciation of history

and civilisation's forward march tell me that the populist surge

of recent years will not usher in an era of "localism,"

as xenophobic forces will ultimately lead to the natural and more

powerful drivers of globalism. Thankfully, it was this appreciation

of the inevitability and impact of globalism that led

the United States to abandon its isolationist policies

and ultimately join the allied forces in the world wars

of the last century. A second and related issue

is whether the United States is going to shrink from its global

responsibilities and the role that America has played on the world

stage over the last 75 years. I strongly believe in the importance

and necessity of that US role. And I do so because I

believe in the concept But, the concept of American

exceptionalism has too often been misrepresented and misinterpreted,

both in the United States and around the globe,

as Americans somehow believing they are qualitatively better

than other people around the world. That is certainly not what I mean

by American exceptionalism. I recognise that, as a lifelong

American citizen and a former senior US Government official,

I am not an unbiased observer But I do believe that

the United States has had the tremendous good fortune

of having a large land mass, rich with arable land,

natural resources, navigable rivers, long ocean borders,

and generous climate. The United States also has had

the benefit of assimilating the formidable skills,

hard work, and life dreams of people from every corner of our world

as well as the luxury of developing its democratic

institutions over the Geography, history, and time have

combined to make the United States a truly unique nation

of tremendous political, economic This good fortune has given

the United States exceptional opportunity and responsibility

to help shape the course and this is what I think

of as being at the core From helping turn the tide

of the last world war and then spearheading the rebuilding

of war-ravaged lands, to countering Soviet expansionism

and being responsible for the ultimate dissolution

of the Soviet state, to frequently leading international

efforts against terrorism, nuclear proliferation,

and global poverty, the United States has had

significant influence on a wide This is not to say that

the United States has had a perfect As reasonable people have

legitimately criticised America's record in Vietnam and similarly

in Iraq, on the detention and interrogation of terrorist

suspects, and other policies. Still, it is undeniable that America

has had a very positive net impact on the world in the past 100 years

through the exercise of its hard and soft power, and,

together with close allies and partners like the

United Kingdom, has beaten back the forces of Fascism,

Nazism, and Communism. In addition, American citizens

are frequently at the forefront of this positive global engagement,

as exemplified by former Dimbleby lecturer Bill Gates,

who spoke so eloquently in 2013 about the potential to eradicate

polio and other infectious diseases when he said,

"It will reveal what human beings are capable of and suggest

how ambitious we can be For those who believe

the United States needs to continue to play a pro-active role in global

affairs, the early signals coming from the new US

Administration are worrisome. Recent proposals to make major cuts

in the Department of State budget, foreign aid, and US

financial support to UN programmes and peacekeeping efforts

bode ill for global engagement by the United States commensurate

with its exceptional resources, These institutions and diplomatic

relationships and engagements have served as the foundation

of America's stabilising While it is imperative

for the United States to maintain and strengthen its world-leading

military force, it is also essential that the United States exercise

leadership on those issues that already or potentially impact most

of the world: countering the proliferation of weapons of mass

destruction - nuclear, chemical, and biological - exposing corrupt

and dictatorial governments, condemning human rights abuses,

tackling water scarcity, environmental degradation,

and climate change, and addressing youth bulges,

high rates of urbanisation, In general, populations most

impacted by these issues live in nations strewn across the Sahara

and down the spine of Africa, in the land-locked

countries of Asia, in Yemen, They are among the people

the British economist, Paul Collier, The sad plights of Mali, Sudan,

Somalia, Yemen, Rwanda and others - each suffering from almost every one

of these global issues - speaks strongly for our need

to address these issues not only for the sake of that bottom billion

but for our own sake as well. It is not mere coincidence

that the nations containing the bottom billion are also leading

sources of the waves of spontaneous migrants

fleeing their hellish conditions, as well as the clear

majority of the membership of the self-proclaimed Islamic State

of Iraq and Syria - Isis, Al-Qaeda, If the United States

is to maintain its global leadership position beyond mere military might,

it must maintain its longstanding commitments to economic development,

to improving water resources, reducing environmental degradation,

supporting family planning, fighting the spread of infectious

disease, and promoting democracy. Indeed, a coordinated and sustained

effort by the international community to address the plight

of the poorest billion of the world's population,

with the United States playing a prominent if not leading role,

will be the most effective way to deal with the underlying sources

of terrorism over the long term. And while I am treading

in politically dangerous waters, allow me to stay here a bit longer

by talking about the third issue that keeps me awake,

and that is the importance of capable and competent government

leadership in today's world. It certainly has been my experience

that governance in the highly technological, fast-paced,

and interconnected world of the 21st century is more complex,

more challenging, and more fraught During my time as Director

of CIA and as a senior White House official,

I found the pace, intensity, and complexity of domestic

and international events The availability of copious amounts

of frequently ambiguous, complex, and sometimes contradictory

information frustrating, and the time available

for thoughtful discussion and deliberation

constantly shrinking. Given the inherent complexities

of modern-day governance, I would argue that public servants

with executive or legislative branch responsibilities need to have

certain relevant knowledge, experience, and preparation to be

effective and successful. Such a standard generally applies

to the judicial branches of government worldwide,

as judges are expected to have established credentials

in jurisprudence and the law before they take up their duties or preside

over cases in court. Similar requirements apply

to the upper echelons of business, and it certainly is also true

that we wouldn't trust the fate of our hearts or even our teeth

to individuals unschooled, respectively, in cardiac

and dental health. Increasingly, though,

individuals who ascend to positions of government authority in some

powerful nations - either by election or appointment -

have skills that might have allowed them to excel in party politics,

campaigning, business, or even in an unrelated

celebrity-inducing field but that sadly do not prepare them

for carrying out their solemn governmental responsibilities with

competence, integrity, and efficacy. I would argue that the challenge

is especially true for democracies where the foundational stones

of government include the protection and advancement of, simultaneously,

freedom of expression, privacy, security, an open society,

the rights of minorities, and, As we all know, many of these

principles and goals of government can, at times,

be in tension with one another, which requires skillful

leadership that is smart, agile, knowledgeable,

and dynamic to strike The consequences of inept leadership

around the world have been profound Not only has the failure to meet

expectations led to dissatisfaction with politicians and government

officials, but, more worrisome, it has fomented cynicism

about the institutions Thus, people are shirking

traditional definitions of national identity or regional allegiance

and turning elsewhere for answers. In less developed countries,

and especially those wracked by internal strife and violence,

incompetent and corrupt leadership is undermining the very concept

of the nation state, which has served as the governing

global framework since the Treaty of Westphalia created the basis

for sovereign self-determination There is an increasing trend

in these countries for people to identify less with a national

identity and more with tribal affiliations, ethnic groups,

religious movements, militias, and, for some,

extremist and terrorist organisations that oftentimes better

meet an individual's sense of identity, as well as her or his

daily need for protection, food and water,

and even health care. Allow me to put forth

a radical notion. I sometimes wonder whether,

somewhat like an immigrant taking a test to become a new citizen,

aspirants to certain levels of government officialdom should be

required to pass a qualifying test for competence in governance

as well as basic knowledge of their country's constitutional

foundations, world history, and global realities before

they are eligible to seek Or, at the very least,

there should be some way for the average citizen and voter

to have an objective assessment of the qualifications

of the individuals who are running for public office or who

are appointed to senior Maybe "a Richard Dimbleby gold

standard examination" that needs to be taken and passed

by all our future politicians. And while we're at it, a similar

qualification for truth-telling and for responsible and courteous

political discourse, with an objective appraisal of one's

track record in these areas also Recognising the risk of an American

quoting a famous Briton to a group of Britons in Britain,

let me remind you of the words spoken by Winston Churchill

in the House of Commons "It has been said that democracy

is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms

that have been tried I know those words are often

repeated, but they remain the best description of democracy

I have found. Indeed, democracy is a journey,

not an end state, and I would advise its practitioners

that it is their duty to continue the journey and to realise

the potential of democracy by demonstrating the ability

to govern successfully The anti-incumbent and populist

movements that have gained force in the West have done so not

because they have articulated a more coherent and compelling strategy

to deal with the very real challenges of today and tomorrow,

because they have not. Rather, it is because of

the shortcomings and failings of traditional political parties

and politicians who have given priority to electoral success

and to fanning the flames of partisan politics instead

of focusing on good governance, which involves anticipating,

managing, and mitigating the difficult challenges that

affect the daily lives While rhetorical flourishes,

ideological fervor, and bombastic hyperbole frequently stir up

populist emotions and generate extensive news coverage,

it is the ability of government leaders to produce results

and deliver on promises that will be the ultimate measure

of their success. Hobbled and dysfunctional political

systems and incompetent leadership also easily fall prey

to nondemocratic forces Despite its military adventures

in Ukraine and Syria, Moscow's preferred course of action

on the foreign front is to engage in stealthy and insidious

exploitation of politics and corrupt and weak politicians

rather than to project All signs indicate that Mr Putin

will make even greater use and their active measures to shape

popular perceptions, the agendas and platforms

of political parties, and the outcome of elections

outside Russian borders. Inside Russia, Mr Putin -

as we have seen once will continue to preemptively

undermine the development of any political opposition that

has even a slim chance Moreover, leaders who have a virtual

monopoly on political power, such as Putin,

Turkey's President Erdogan, China's President Xi,

and Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei pose a particular challenge

to the growth of, or emergence of, democratic forces inside their own

countries and to stability Determined to recapture the grandeur

of ancient or lost empires, their innate ambitions for personal

and national power are the antithesis of competent and

enlightened 21st century leadership. I think I have swum in these

dangerous waters long enough, so I would now like to address

a fourth issue, something that should be a concern to all of us

and that epitomises the paradox of progress of globalisation

probably better than anything else and that is the power,

capability, security, reliability, integrity, and resilience

of the digital domain. Nothing has so fundamentally

affected our world as well as our individual lives as has the advent

of this new cyber world and the versatility and mobility

of devices that connect to it. This digital domain

is the environment where more and more human activity

and interaction take place - be it social, commercial,

educational, governmental, financial, informational,

and cultural. Instantaneous connectivity

in all these realms has become But like the physical

manifestations of globalisation, the cyber world that constantly

enhances our daily lives also puts at risk those very elements

it is designed to advance - our well-being, our privacy,

our security, and our prosperity. Every day the cyber realm

is the venue for countless transgressions of law and order -

massive theft of personal identifying information,

intellectual property rights activities

by sexual predators, human traffickers, drug syndicates,

terrorists, and international organised crime, and the hateful

venom of ethnic, racial, And, as we enter the age

of the Internet of Things, when virtually every item that can

be connected to the digital domain will be, our individual

and collective vulnerability to cyber attacks and blackmail will

be certain to grow exponentially. Nation states are particularly

active in this arena. Russia's cyber interference in last

year's US presidential election, North Korea's actions against Sony

and the Bank of Bangladesh, and China's plunder of millions

of personnel records from the United States Government

revealed the ability and willingness of nation states

and their intelligence services And the indictment by the US

Department of Justice last month of two officials

from Russia's Federal Security Bureau along with two known criminal

cyber hackers is a good example of how some intelligence

agencies are joining forces with the cyber underworld

for common purpose. And I am not going to discuss

Wikileaks, lest my head Indeed, the increasing propagation

of cyber capabilities - among nation states and non-state

actors - as well as their potential disabling, disruptive,

and destructive impact raise the prospect that the next

spark that leads to war will occur not on the ground,

on the seas, or in the air, Unlike in the physical world,

where the protective role of government and its security

services and law enforcement authorities are widely

understood and accepted, the role of government

in safeguarding the digital world still lacks sharp definition

as well as national Indeed, the sophistication

of the technology associated with the digital world,

such as unbreakable encryption, has frequently frustrated

the ability of governments to protect its citizenry and carry

out the rule of law. This is especially germane today

as innocent people are being mowed down on our city streets

by individuals who exploit the secretive safe harbour

of the cyber world. This lack of clarity

regarding a government's appropriate role in the cyber domain is somewhat

understandable given the recency of the digital

domain's explosive growth, the dearth of relevant case law

and government experience, and the fact that more than 85%

of the world's critical digital infrastructure is owned and operated

by the private sector. When I served at the White House

as President Obama's principal one of my principal responsibilities

was to help develop a comprehensive cyber strategy to protect

America's digital networks It was, without a doubt,

the most challenging task By the time I left that job,

I felt that we had only scratched the surface of what needed to be

done, as the rate of innovation in the cyber world was outpacing

the government's ability to keep up. But while there will always be some

level of uncertainty about how the digital domain and its various

virtual and physical components will evolve over time,

ambiguity about the government's appropriate role in the cyber sphere

is something that we allow Over the centuries, we developed

legal and regulatory frameworks to sort out how governments

and private entities should operate and interact on terra firma

and in the maritime While developing such frameworks

are much more challenging for the cyber domain,

it is a task that must be undertaken sooner rather than later,

as the time for admiring To tackle this issue effectively,

there needs to be more informed and less hyperbolic discussion among

government officials and the private I have long argued in

the United States that the unique nature of the digital domain

requires an unprecedented partnership between the public

and private sector with the aim of optimising security,

privacy, and civil liberties while at the same time ensuring that

business, commerce, and all other activities in the cyber realm

can thrive and prosper. A ground-breaking

international cybersecurity comprising government experts,

information technology specialists, internet service providers,

leading scientists and engineers, representatives from

the business and nonprofit And Washington, London,

and allied capitals should waste no The last issue I would

like to address is one that has changed the course of 21st century

history and is likely to continue to do so in the decade ahead -

international terrorism. The senseless attack outside

Westminster on 22nd March is a striking example of how

challenging it is in free and open societies to stop what might be

called the atomisation A single disturbed individual

or small group carrying out a murderous act,

be it with a vehicle, a knife, a gun, or virtually

any other physical object. But while tens if not hundreds

of thousands of such criminal acts take place daily around the globe,

it is when such violence is designed to make some real or perceived

political or ideological statement that the act and the perpetrator

gain international prominence and generate a reaction far

beyond the location Much attention has been paid to this

lone actor phenomenon, and the potential for lone actor

attacks has struck fear in the hearts of average citizens

and has sown the seeds of suspicion and distrust within

heterogeneous communities. I do not want to diminish

in any way the seriousness At the same time, we need to keep

in mind that such incidents, thanks in no small part

to the outstanding work of law-enforcement, security,

and intelligence officers, are exceedingly rare

and are condemned by all except a very small and ultimately

doomed extremist element. The atomisation of the terrorism

threat is accompanied more broadly by several

noteworthy trends. of terrorist attacks carried out

today are by individuals and groups purporting to have a religious

foundation and purpose, a model that has proved to be

a powerful magnet to attract individuals, frequently

on society's fringe, who seek notoriety or pursue false

promises of reward in a life This ideological dimension contrasts

with the many secular terrorist organisations that were

seeking specific political As part of this faux religious,

ideological trend, an increasing number of terrorists are fully

committed to dying in the act, raising the seriousness

of the terrorist threat by obviating the perpetrator's need

for an oftentimes Second, more so-called

terrorist groups are diversifying their portfolios,

as they have acquired administrative, military, criminal,

and economic capabilities and resources far beyond

their terrorist needs. Indeed, an increasing number

of opportunistic insurgent groups based in the Middle East,

South Asia, and Africa adopt an external terrorist agenda to gain

financial and material support and to enhance global recognition

of their rebellious brand. Third, the ubiquity and power

of the digital domain have greatly enabled terrorist organizations

to communicate, incite, recruit, surveil, and even trigger

terrorist attacks from afar. Sophisticated software applications

and encryption technologies have provided a virtual safe harbour

for terrorists to ply their trade And fourth, the tremendous strides

made in the miniaturisation, concealment, undetectability,

and remote detonation of improvised explosive devices have made

the design and implementation of counterterrorism programmes much

more challenging and expensive. Notwithstanding these

worrisome trends, I am confident that the military,

economic, and territorial fortunes of Isis are certain to decline

steadily in the coming months and years, as the promises

of what essentially is a depraved, criminal, and psychopathic

leadership continue to collapse on The group will pose a terrorist

threat in the region and beyond over the next several years,

however, as vast areas of ungoverned and unsecured

lands in the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa

and the proven ability of Isis to exploit the digital domain make

it much more difficult The longer-term prospects of Isis,

Al-Qaeda, and groups of their ilk will hinge not only

on the capability of governments to take strong and decisive action

against them but the ability and willingness of leaders to invest

in the institutions of governance and in education and training

opportunities for their youth. I was responsible for many

counterterrorism programmes of the US Government over the last

several decades and always thought that we resourced very well

the downstream military, security, and intelligence

requirements associated However, we did not make

sufficient upstream investment in economic development,

secondary and higher education, technical training programmes,

and professionalising public sector This will be the key to addressing

the factors and conditions that Now, you might think

from the foregoing litany of worries, concerns,

and complaints that I am not optimistic

about our collective future. I believe it is a well-established

fact that intelligence officers by nature and training look

for potential problems, dangers, and risks, as it is our job to sniff

out and then help prevent bad Along these lines, former US

Secretary of defence and Director of CIA Bob Gates has often stated

that if intelligence officers smell flowers,

they immediately look around Notwithstanding my concerns

about the challenges that lay ahead of us,

I am strongly upbeat about what the future

holds for all of us. Every day, there are

new medical breakthroughs, technological innovations,

scientific discoveries, engineering wonders,

and breathtaking acts of human More and more, we are seeing

and employing new capabilities that foster good and counter evil,

many of which were once considered the preposterous musings of science

fiction novelists and screenwriters. I cannot even imagine what daily

life will be like for my During my government service,

I had the opportunity to work with some truly outstanding

and talented people from all walks of life -

Americans and non-Americans, public servants and private citizens

- who tried their best to make this world a better and safer place not

just for them, but for everyone. Their work continues,

and successive generations of global citizens will do the same,

which is why I am optimistic I guess that is one of the reasons

why I enjoyed working closely with President Barack Obama

for eight years. President Obama epitomised

the strength, compassion, and aspirations of the American

people and the American experience. I admired his leadership when I saw

the steely determination in his eyes when he gave the orders to conduct

military strikes against terrorists And I witnessed a leader's pain

and anguish when I saw the tears in his eyes as I told him that 20

innocent and beautiful young children along with six

of their teachers were brutally murdered in a shooting

in Sandy Hook School in Connecticut. But what I appreciated most

about President Obama and the presidents I worked

for before him was that they saw the basic goodness in people,

and not just people who looked like them, believed like them,

and acted like them. They recognised that the world

is a wonderful and diverse environment and that,

sometimes, goodness in people needs to be cultivated,

encouraged, and nurtured. And they realised that

the United States has a unique ability to help in that effort

around the globe. Many of us gathered here this

evening have had exceptional good our family status, the schools

we went to, the jobs we have held, or the opportunities

we were given simply Whatever our current calling in life

and whatever our talents might be, I would like to think that each one

of us will use the remaining time we have on this good earth

to leverage our exceptional good fortune to cultivate,

to encourage, and to nurture Every two minutes, someone in

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