23/12/2016 BBC Business Live

This is Business Live from BBC News, with Aaron Heslehurst

As 2016 draws to a close, we'll look back on a year

which featured two events that will shape the global economy

Welcome to Business Live: Review 2016.

This year saw the UK take the momentous decision

We'll take a look at what lies in store in the next 12 months.

Billionaire businessman Donald Trump wins the race for the White House.

He's made some bold announcements, but was it all talk and no action?

And it's been a turbulent year for global markets.

Oil prices hit a historic low, but there's light at the end

of the tunnel, following a landmark deal between members

Exploding phones, driverless cars and virtual reality.

It's been an eventful twelve months in the the world of tech,

but what can we look forward to in 2017?

We'll speak to our resident gadget guru Rory-Cellan Jones.

Welcome to a very special edition of Business Live.

This year saw two of the biggest political results of the decade

as the recent trend towards globalisation

There are now dark clouds of uncertainty hanging over two

of the world's biggest economies - Europe and the United States.

Let's start by looking back at what happened following the UK's

momentous decision to leave the European Union.

Tonight at 10 - the voters decide that, after four decades,

it is time for Britain to leave the European Union.

I don't think it would be right for me to try to be the captain

that steers our country to its next destination.

Across Asia today, we have seen shares fall on the major markets

like Japan's Nikkei, down more than 7%.

Look what happened, it tumbled down to levels we have not

Many people in the financial markets caught, perhaps,

Brexit means Brexit, and we are going to make a success of it.

It is a victory against the big merchant banks, against the big

The end of the day, Jamie Dimon, Lloyd Blankfein,

you want to take your troops from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs

to Paris, to the Boulevard, have a lovely holiday.

I'll give you a clue, guys - you'll be back.

I'm joined by our economics editor, Kamal Ahmed.

We saw Brexit back in the summer. Looking ahead to 2017, where do we

stand in terms of UK negotiations? Everything looks so uncertain. The

phoney war will come to an end, Britain voted to leave the European

Union in jaw and the practicalities of that will begin next year. -- in

June. The British Government wants to spark Article 50 which starts the

process of exit. By the end of March. That is a two year process so

that should be completed, we think, by 2019. There are tensions on both

sides. In Britain, there are tensions between those who want what

is cold a hard Brexit, fully out of the single market and the Customs

Union, able to sign trade deals around the world itself, with no

reference to the European Union. And those that want a softer Brexit,

still having preferential access to the single market, possibly still in

the Customs Union. That is tension on one side. On the European side,

the 27 other member states, there are tensions between those who want

to ensure Britain does not get a better deal by going out of the

European Union, politically unpalatable as that is, and Britain

is the second largest economy in Europe. They do not want to set up

trade barriers so the European economy suffers by losing the

British market. London, one of the leading global financial centres and

Europe needs the city to front some businesses.

Indeed. Let's bring up the board. I want to talk about the FTSE and the

pound. This is how they have ended as of December 20. The FTSE nearly

13% and the sterling down 16%, we were expecting that. If they vote

for Brexit happens, we would see that pound punch. The judgment was

investors would think assets in the UK would be less valuable in the

future so their money would be better employed on the continent and

frankly in America. And so the pound has fallen in value. What is

interesting and more surprising is how good equities have been and the

markets. In a way, although Brexit is incredibly important politically

and economically, the fundamentals have not changed that much yet. And

so equities remain very quite -- attracted because of the high bloke

interest-rate and loose monetary policy, no signal yet from Britain,

the Central Bank in the UK and Europe that interest rates will rise

soon and quickly. So the equities run has been very powerful, a lot of

those in the FTSE, in the London markets, they are global companies.

Their profits are in dollars so as sterling falls... Their profits have

gone upwards. So there is a situation where those equities are

doing rather well and you have a clash. Equities positive, sterling

has had a tough three months. The European project, how is it

looking going into 2017? Brexit is important but I would not suggest it

is the most important thing in Europe in 2017. You have elections

in the Netherlands and in France and in Germany. And each of those

elections will be a big test about the kind of Europe that the voters

in Europe want. A reformed Europe, high levels of unemployment,

problems with growth. What type of Europe will people who support the

project, windows elections, or will people who want to rip up the

project and cause more tension in Europe and possibly split up the EU,

will they wind? It will be a fascinating year. But the cards on

the table, could we see a European shock like we have seen Brexit and

the election of Donald Trump? We need to be careful, the pull

suggests not, but at the end of 2017, what might be described as the

establishment parties have put themselves back at the centre of

Europe -- the pulls. The European project is incredibly important

European government and at the end of 2017, it is suggested they will

look more victorious than knows what that one to split up the EU. One

thing we learned this year it was do not listen to the pollsters!

Happy New Year! The UK's decision to leave

the European Union certainly surprised global markets,

but investors didn't need to wait In the United States,

the billionaire businessman Donald Trump swept to power in one

of the most divisive political Let's look back at some

of the highlights. Right now, 92 million Americans

are on the sideline, It's a silent nation

of jobless Americans. Donald was one of the people

who rooted for the housing crisis. He said back in 2006, gee,

I hope it does collapse because then I can go in and buy some

and make some money. We will build the wall,

100%, and Mexico will be Just imagine how many more

automobile jobs will be lost We can't continue to allow China

to rape our country. Donald J Trump, billionaire property

developer with no previous experience of public office,

is the 45th President Companies are not going to leave

the United States any more It's not going to happen.

It's not going to happen. Our number-one priority

is going to be the economy, get back to 3% to 4% growth,

we think that is very sustainable, and focus on things

for the American worker. Nice thunderous music. I love the

Pippa Malmgren is a former White House advisor and she joins

You did it! You picked Brexit and Trump.

Yes, it was a big year! Can you do the Lottery numbers?

I know you want to talk about the economic and Trump's vision. This is

what we have been hearing, is the team that he's building, what do you

make of it? The last was Peter Navarro who wrote one of his box,

Death by China. Yes, exactly, he is picking people with very different

points of view. They are going to have a Cabinet that argues which

might not be a bad thing, they will have debates about the right

direction to go. Second thing, the establishment is very upset about

these new people because they are not. And that was the point. The

electorate said, I want the establishment out and something new

that looks after my interests more. That is what I think they are going

to deliver. Someone described this as bonfire of the agencies! Trump

has been brought into literally burn the house down and start again,

reconstruct this thing. And Washington was overgrown in many

ways. Will there be accidents along the way? Every President makes

mistakes and we will see those, certainly. But the upside may be

greater than people expect. Just because they do not like him

personally, the markets were like his policies. We have seen that with

the Dell. The wild card is trade policy and whether that will harm

growth in the future. What is your take on that? Again, I do not know,

these are my personal views, I think that there is a lot of bluster about

trade policy. But in the end, what they want to do is sell more

American birds, have better quality imports. So the end goal is to have

trade. -- American goods. They will not use that word, we will have less

talk about free trade, does it mean something profoundly different?

Maybe not. You cannot cede the US as an island, it has got to trade in

the world. To be fair, less than 10% of US GDP depends on exports are as

a nation, we are incredibly lucky. We can be an engine even if the rest

of the world is not going well, trade is as small part of our

economy compared to most others so that is something to keep in mind.

Thank you very much indeed. Happy New Year.

Still to come: Exploding phones, driverless cars

It's been an eventful 12 months in the world of tech,

but what can we look forward to in 2017?

We'll speak to our resident gadget guru Rory-Cellan Jones.

You're with Business Live from BBC News.

Throughout the show, we've been hearing about how

the events of 2016 are set to the shape the business

Here's the BBC's Theo Leggett with a timeline of key events

In January, President-Elect Donald Trump takes the reigns

in the White House, and onlookers will be keen to see if he follows

through with his plan to restrict trade and inject hundreds

of billions of dollars into the US economy.

Fast-forward a couple of months and we'll see the first big

The UK Prime Minister says she'll trigger Article 50

This is when Britain can start formal negotiations

And we'll begin to see what the new relationship could look

This is, of course, crucial to the future of the EU project.

France is one other country which will be

In April, it'll hold the first round of its Presidential election.

The far-right candidate Marine Le Pen is riding high

on a wave of anti-establishment politics which is currently

The leader of the Front National is a staunch Eurosceptic,

so there could be some further bad news for Brussels if

Recent events have seen Chancellor Angela Merkel come

under fire for her open-door migrant policy.

The public could go to the polls as early as August 27th.

The German leader has seen a steady decline in her popularity ratings

Let's take a look at how markets have fared over

the course of the year, starting with stocks in Europe.

Yes, there you can see sterling down against the dollar by 16%

as a result of the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit vote.

the FTSE gained around 13% this year.

A quick look at US stocks now - the DOW Jones rose

US markets actually broke all records following the US election.

Investors are perhaps anticipating Donald Trump will follow

through with his $1 trillion spending plan and this could provide

And they need it right now. Borrow and build, but maybe they don't need

to borrow? A lot of investors will throw money into construction

programmes. You are watching the review of 2016

on Business Live. The events of the past 12 months

have made for a turbulent At the turn of the year,

the price of oil was already at its lowest point for a decade -

this had investors wondering whether In January, Iran returned

to international markets following the lifting of Western

sanctions and crude fell below $28 dollars per barrel -

but this proved to be short lived. In the first half of the year,

the market rallied as some of that And in September some of the world's

leading oil producing nations managed to reach

a landmark agreement. For the first time in over 8 years,

members of the Opec oil cartel Initially the market had its doubts

that the deal would hold, but after Iran and Saudi Arabia

agreed to resolve their differences, Iain Reid is a senior oil

and gas equity analyst A good Ozzie institution. That is

the key, they have all agreed, but will they stick to that? Yes,

compliance is always the key. As you say, they have not done it for a

while. What encourages the market is that the core countries of Opec, the

Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, they make over half of

it and they really have to comply, given their budget constraints. We

think most of the rest of the countries will comply to some

degree. Some are tempted by the slightly higher oil price, to

increase supply and make more money. It has been hard going for countries

in South America, some African countries? Yes, Libya and Nigeria

are coming out of a pretty depressed position anyway. They will be

allowed to increase. There will be some choosing, but there will be a

lot of compliance, I think. We finally saw that announcement, we

have been talking about it for days and weeks in the lead up, they have

made this agreement. But they cut at record levels. Russia was producing

more than 11 million a day, something like that. Does it really

make a big difference? Well, demand is also increasing. Lower prices

means it is cheaper. That demand growth has been good. How long do

think that will last, now prices are rising? Unless there is a recession

in the West, I think there will be a decent amount of growth, which will

increase the wiggle room some of the country's health. The US is also

producing quite a lot of the world us oil. The worry is that with

higher prices they will produce even more. The Americans? Fracking? They

will come into it, and make money. A lot of them shut production when the

prices got too low, but they can switch it on pretty quickly? There

is a finite limit to that, to be honest. With a bit of compliance and

demand growth, I think the oil price will reach $60. Next year? Yes, it

is $55 now. Look at the chart, Brent crude is up 46% in 2016. Predictions

for 2017? Over $60. But not the $100 mark that we have seen before? Not

unless there is a cataclysm, but don't rule that out. But we're not

forecasting that. A nice smooth path up to 70. We will put you back on

next year to see if you are right! In a moment, we'll be talking

tech with our gadget He is taking photos and he will put

it on social media. We are going to take a look at the year in social.

These are daft people in our office playing it!

It changed my life for a week and then, poof, it was gone."

He said it was the best out of this year.

A viewer in Scotland says "No, I would never use a driverless taxi

Mutala in India, "I would be scared to sit in one in India because it

I tweeted this about five o'clock this morning

and had nothing but short, sharp, shrift, responses

2016 has been an eventful year in the world of tech.

As you've just seen, driverless taxis picked up passengers

And the war between Samsung and Apple reached explosive new heights.

We're joined by our technology correspondent Rory-Cellan Jones.

You see that picture? Is this the future? We said that 2016 was going

to be the year of virtual reality. We saw a lot of launchers. I don't

think we have seen mass take-up. What we are now seeing is the

emergence of cheaper forms. This is an example, a cheap headset into

which you put a mobile phone. Much easier to get to grips with. Not as

good as things like Oculus Rift. What does it do? Why are you doing?

You are being transported new worlds. I like the world I am living

in! Good question, but my experience, the first time somebody

does this, I did it with family members, an ageing parent the other

day, they are quite excited by it. My question mark is whether this

will last. The first experience is great and then you do begin to say,

yes, what is it for? It is fun now, but they have to apply to something?

Something constructive? We are seeing augmented reality, putting

virtual object in the real world, the great example was Pokemon Go,

wandering around with phones, catching Pikachu. Microsoft has a

thing that takes virtual objects of a step into the real world. It has a

business application for that. Voice control? Aaron, be quiet. OK,

Google. It works! Happy to help... Be quiet for one moment. Who is Alan

Haselhurst? According to Wikipedia, he is a BBC world television

presenter... It got it! This is an intelligent assistant. It offers

questions like how old is he? We will not go on to that. We

celebrated our 70th birthday this year. We have already seen this year

the Amazon Echo, the voice control speaker taking off. You have a

picture of that. And Google Home. Voice becoming the new interface.

This is a Google mobile phone, using the smart assistant. You also have

Siri in Apple devices and Cortana in Microsoft. It knows when I ask who

Alan Haselhurst is, a good follow-up question, how old is he? Who would

buy these things? They are buying them. These voice controlled

speakers are out there. It's not so much that these are products people

are going to buy, they are out there. They are in the environment,

voice control is becoming a thing. This is stuff, when we were younger,

we would watch science fiction films, they would be on a spaceship,

talking to Alexa or whatever? What amazes me is how blase we are about

it. In Star Trek there were devices where you could speak in one

language and it would come out in another. We got back! -- we got

that! What about driverless cars? It all feeds into the same theme, more

intelligence being built into devices, principally cars. We have

come an awful long way. We are expecting a lot more demos of that

kind at the CES show in Las Vegas. That knowledge leads us into...

About 40 seconds left, into the internet of things? Yes, a bunch of

devices, everything connected to the internet. That is a smart doorbell

with a camera. It will identify who has come to the door and you can let

them in through smartphone. Smart lighting, that you can control

through the mobile phone. Drones. You said you wanted one before I

came on. A lot more in the sky. Rory turns on his Christmas tree lights

through his phone. Hey, Siri, to the Christmas lights on. We love you, in

the non-biblical sense, thanks for joining us. See you in the New Year.