24/12/2016 BBC Business Live


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As 2016 draws to a close, we are going to look back on a year which


featured two events which will shape the global economy for decades to


come. Welcome to Business Live's review of 2016. Yep, this year saw


the UK take that momentous decision to leave the European Union. We are


going to take a look at what lies in store for the next 12 months. And he


did it. The billionaire businessman Donald Trump wins the race for the


White House. He has made some bold announcements, what was it all talk


and no action? And of course, it has been a turbulent year for the global


market. Oil prices hit that historic low. There is light at the end of


the tunnel. And of course, following a landmark deal between members of


the OPEC countries. And exploding phones, driverless cars and virtual


reality. It has been an eventful 12 months in the world of tech but what


can we look forward to in 2017? We will speak to our resident gadget


guru. And indeed, a very warm welcome to a very special edition of


Business Live. This year saw two of the biggest political results of the


decade, as the recent trend towards globalisation kind of took a step


back. There are now dark clouds of uncertainty hanging over two of the


world's biggest economies, Europe and the United States. So let's


start by taking a look back at what happened following the UK's decision


to leave the European Union. Tonight at 10pm, the voters decide that


after four decades it is time for Britain to leave the European Union.


I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that


steers our country to its next destination. Across Asia today we


have seen shares fall on the major markets, like Japan's Nikkei, down


more than 7%. Now look what happened, it tumbled down to levels


not seen since the 1980s. Many people in the financial markets,


caught perhaps unawares by this decision. Brexit means Brexit, and


we are going to make a success of it. It is a victory against the big


merchant banks, against the big businesses, and against big


politics. At the end of the day, Jamie Dunn, JP Morgan,


gold-medallist Goldman Sachs, have a good holiday. Because I will give


you a clue guys, you will be back. We are joined by economics editor,


Ahmed. We thought Brexit back in the summer. We are looking ahead to


2017. Where do we stand in terms of UK negotiations? Every thing looks


so uncertain, doesn't it? I think the phoney war will come to an end.


Obviously Britain voted to leave the European Union in June, and actually


the practicalities of that will start next year. So the British


government wants to spark what is called Article 50, that starts the


process of exit, by the end of March. That is a two you process, so


that process should be completed, we think, by 2019. I think their


attentions on both sides. In Britain there are tensions between those who


want what is called a hired Brexit, fully out of the single market, out


of the customs union, able to sign trade deals around the world itself,


with no reference to the European Union, and those that want a softer


Brexit. Still having preferential access to the single market,


possibly still in the customs union. That is attention on one side. On


the European side, the 27 other member states, there are tensions


between those who want to ensure that Britain doesn't get a better


deal by coming out of the European Union, politically unpalatable as


that is, but also Britain is the second largest economy in Europe.


They don't want to set up trade barriers such that the European


economy itself suffers by losing the British market. And of course


London, the city, is one of the global leading financial centres.


Europe needs the city to fund its own businesses. Indeed it does.


Talking of financials, let's bring up the motherboard, because I want


to talk about that. We can bring it up, because I want to talk about the


FTSE and the pound. This is how they ended as of the 20 -- 21st of


December. Everyone talked about how if there was a vote for Brexit we


would see that pound plunge. Exactly, investors would think that


assets in the UK may be less valuable in the future so that money


would be better employed on the European continent, and frankly in


America, and so the pound has fallen in value. I think what is


interesting, and maybe slightly more surprising, is how good equities


have been and the markets have been. I think in a way although Brexit is


incredibly important, politically and economically, the fundamentals


haven't changed that much yet. And so equities are still very


attractive, because of the hyper low interest rates, very loose monetary


policy, no signal yet from Britain, really. The central bank in the UK


or the central bank in Europe, that interest rates are going to rise any


time soon, and certainly not quickly. So the equities run has


been very powerful. Of course, a lot of those equities in the FTSE, the


London market, are companies that are global. The profits are in


dollars, and so as sterling falls, their profits actually... Yes, their


actual profits are then sparked upwards. So you get to a situation


where those equities are doing rather well. So you have this sort


of clash, equities positive, sterling having a tough time. You


touched on Europe, the European project, how is it looking going


into 2017? Again, Brexit is important, but I wouldn't suggest it


is the most important thing going on in Europe in 2017. You have


elections in the Netherlands, you have elections in France, you have


elections in Germany, and each of those elections will be a big test


about the kind of Europe that the voters in Europe want. A reformed


Europe, they still want higher levels of unemployment, problems


with growth, what types of Europe will people who support the project,


when those elections, or will people who want to rip up the project and


cause more tension in Europe and possibly split up the European


Union, will they went? Is going to be a fascinating year. We are going


to wrap it up, but let's put the cards on the table. Could we see a


European shock like we have seen Brexit, and the election of Donald


Trump? All the polls, I know we have to be very careful, all the polls


suggest not, but at the end of 2017, what might be described as the


establishment parties have read... Put themselves back at the centre of


Europe. The European project is incredibly important to the European


governments, at the end of 2017, at the polls suggest, that they will


look more victorious than those who want to break up the European Union.


One thing we learnt this year was don't listen to the polls! Thank you


for your time this year, happy New Year. Thank you, and to you. The


other UK's decision to leave the European Union certainly surprised


the markets but investors didn't have to wait long for the next


upset. He did it, the billionaire businessman Donald Trump swept to


power in certainly one of the most divisive political campaigns in


living memory. That's take a look back at some of those highlights.


Right now 92 million Americans are on the sideline, outside of the


workforce, and they are not a part of our economy. It is a silent


nation of jobless Americans. Donald was one of the people who rooted the


housing crisis. He said back in 2006, gee, I hope it does collapse


because then I can go in and buy some and makes money. Well, it did


collapse. That is core business. 9 million people. We will build the


wall, 100%, and Mexico will be paying for the wall. Just imagine


how many more automobile jobs will be lost if the TPP is actually


approved. It will be catastrophic. We can't continue to allow China to


rape our country, and that is what they are doing. Donald J Trump, the


billionaire property developer with no previous experience of public


office, is the 45th President of the United States. Companies are not


going to leave the United States any more, without consequence. It is not


going to happen. It's not going to happen. Our number one priority is


going to be the economy, getting back to 324% growth, we believe that


is very sustainable, and focus on things for the American worker. That


is absolutely a priority. Nice, thunderous music there. I love it, I


love the drama. A former White House adviser is here to add to the drama.


And Pippa, you did it. You picked Brexit and he picked Trump. When you


want to talk about the economics, Trump's vision for the economy. This


is what we have been hearing day in and out over the last couple of


weeks. The team that he is building, what do you make of it? Last one was


Mr Navarro, who wrote one of his books, death by China. Yes, exactly.


One thing that is interesting, here's picking people with very


different points of view. They will have a Cabinet which actually


argues, which may not be a bad thing. They are going to have


debates and proper punch-ups about what is the right direction to go.


So that is one thing. Second thing, the establishment is very upset


about all these new people, because they are not. The electorate said


they want the establishment out, I want something new in, something


that looks after my interest more. That is what I think they are going


to deliver. It is kind of... I think someone described it as bonfire of


the agencies. Trump has been brought into literally burn the house down


and start again, reconstruct this thing, and Washington was overgrown


in many ways. So will they be accidents along the way? Look, every


president makes mistakes, so we are going to see those for sure. But on


the other hand, the upside here may be greater than people expect. Just


because they don't like him personally, but the markets are


going to like his policies. We have seen that with the Dow, haven't we?


The wild card, though, is straight and the trade policy, and whether


that is going to harm growth in the future. What is your take on that?


So again, I suspect, I don't know, these are my personal views, but I


think that there is a lot of bluster about trade policy. But in the end,


what they want to do is sell more American goods, have better quality


imports, so the end goal is to actually have trade, they just won't


use that word. We will hear free trade less and less. We will hear


more things like smart business. But does it really mean something


profoundly different? Maybe not. Because they are saying you can't


see the US as an island, it can't just act as an island. It has to


trade in the world. It does, although to be fair, less than 2% of


US GDP depends on exports, so as a nation we are incredibly lucky. We


can be an engine even if the rest of the world is in growing very well.


Traders are relatively small part our economy, compared to most


others. So they do something to keep in mind. Good to talk to you, Pippa.


Thank you very much indeed. Still to come, exploding phones, driverless


cars, and virtual reality. It has all been a very eventful 12 months


in the world of tech. But what can we look forward to in 2017? We are


going to find out, we will speak to the group, Rory Cellan-Jones. You


are watching Is this Live from BBC News. Throughout the show we have


been hearing about how the events of 2016 are set to shake the business


landscape for years to come. 2017 is set to be a busy year. The BBC's


Theo Leggatt has a timeline of key events in the next 12 months. In


January, President-elect Donald Trump enters the White House.


Onlookers will be keen to see if it follows through with plans to


restrict trade and inject hundreds of billions of dollars into the US


economy. Fast forward a couple of months and we will see the first big


development in the Brexit story. The UK prime minister says she will


trigger Article 50 by the end of March. This is when Britain can


start formal negotiations with the European Union, and we may begin to


see what the new relationship could look like in years to come. This is


of course crucial to the future of the EU project. France is one other


country which we -- will be paying close attention. The far right


candidate Marine Le Pen is riding high on NT Europe sentiment which is


sweeping the globe. She is a staunch Eurosceptic so there could be bad


news for Brussels of Shias voted into power. In Germany it is a


similar picture. Recent events have seen Chancellor Angela Merkel come


under fire for her opendoor migrant policy. The public could go to the


polls as early as August 27. The German leader has seen a steady


decline in her popularity ratings over the last few years. 2016 is


anything to go by, the next 12 months could be very interesting


indeed. Looking at the markets, and starting


the stocks in Europe. The sterling down 16%, pretty much expected. But


the FTSE is up some 13%. The European market gained. Not a bad


year. This is up until December the 20th. You call it the quid, I call


it this way. In the US, in terms of the Dow Jones, a rise of around 15%


this year -- the screen. Anticipating that Donald Trump may


follow through with his trillion dollar spending plan. It could


provide a boost to many major American companies, let's admit it,


they need it. It is borrow and build, but maybe they don't need to


borrow. Many investors may throw their money into infrastructure.


You are watching Business Live, review 2016. Events of the past 12


months have made for a turbulent year in global markets. The price of


the black stuff, oil, was already added to point for a decade. This


had investors wondering whether the market could get any lower. In


January, Eranga return to international markets following the


lifting of Western sanctions, and crude fell below $20 per barrel --


Iran. It proved to be short lived. The market rallied some of that


oversupply left the market, if you will. In September, some of the


world's leading oil-producing nations managed to reach a landmark


agreement to the first time in November in over eight years.


Members of OPEC struck a deal to limit production. Initially, the


market had it doubts that the deal were told, but after Iran and Saudi


Arabia agreed to resolve their differences, the oil price surged


once more. We can say to a senior royal and gas analyst. A good Aussie


institution. That is the key. What we just said there, we have all


agreed, but with a stick to that? Complaints is always key. They have


not done it for awhile. -- compliance. What encourages the


market is that the core countries of OPEC, the Gulf countries like


Arabia, UAE, wait, the make up more than half, and they will comply.


They have to comply given their budget constraints -- to wait. We


think most of the rest of the countries will comply to some


degree. Many countries tempted by the slightly higher oil price to


increase supply and make more money. It has been hard going for countries


including South America in some African countries. Yes, and also


Libya and Nigeria, coming out of a depressed position. They will be


allowed to increase. There will be a lot of complaints. When we saw that


announcement, in the lead up, they have finally made this agreement,


but they cut record levels. Rush was producing more than 11 million a


day, something like that. -- brush. Will it make a huge difference? With


demand increasing, lower prices equals that it is cheaper, so demand


growth is good. How long will that last now prices are rising? Unless


there is a recession in the West, we will see a decent amount of growth.


It will increase the wiggle room some of the countries have. Yes, the


US is also producing a lot at the moment. The worry is producing even


more. It will be crackers when I come into it because of the price,


making money. -- a fracas. They can switch it on pretty quickly? There


is a finite limit to that. With a bit of compliance and demand and


great, I think the oil price will reach $60. Next you? It is $55 now,


so we're not far away -- nest you. Brent crude up in 2016. What are


your predictions that 2017? As I say, $60. No $100 mark? Unless there


is a cataclysm somewhere. We have had that before. We are not


forecasting that. And nice and smooth path back up to $70. We will


have you back next year to work out if you were right. We have put you


on the spot. Thank you for joining us. In a moment we will be talking


tech. I love talking tech. You like talking in general. He is taking


photos of us. Then he will put it on social media. We will look at the


year in social media. They are daft people in our office


playing it. Majorly disappointed, it changed my


life for a week and there was gone. Best out this year. -- then it was


gone. Sitting in Scotland says I would


never use a driverless taxi or vehicle, and in India, I would be


scared to sit in one in India because it might malfunction.


I tweeted this about five o'clock this morning and had nothing but a


short and sharp response from viewers about this one. It has been


an interesting year. A sally appearance. 2016 has been an


eventful year in the world of tech. We have seen travellers taxes


picking up passengers for the first time. And of course the war between


Samsung and Apple reached explosive new heights, I see what they did


there. Boom. Good to see you. You have bought your gadgets in. See


that picture? Is this the future? We said 2016 was going to be the year


of virtual reality, when we saw a lot of lodges. We have not seen the


mass take-up yet. We are now seeing the emergence of cheaper forms of


it. This is an example, a cheap headset in which you put a mobile


phone. Much easier to get to grips with. Not as good as things like the


Oculus Rift, but obviously very cheap. What does it do? You are


being transported into new worlds. My experience from this... I like


the world I'm living in! My experience is the first time


somebody does this, I did it with family members, with an ageing


parent the other day. Did you? They are quite excited by it. My question


is whether that will last. The first expense is great and then you do


begin to say, yes, but what is it for? It is all about big companies


applying it to something. A constructive... I'm seeing more of


augmented reality mode, putting virtual objects and a real word. A


great example was Pokemon Go, wandering around with friends


catching Pokemon. Getting arrested for wandering around with friends.


We will see more of that next year. -- friends. And then is a hollow


bones that puts objects on the real world. -- lens. Voice control! Be


quiet. It works! Amazing. Happy to help. You have spoiled my demo. OK,


Google. Who is Aaron said Iraq? Aaron Heslehurst is a TV presenter.


And then you can ask questions like how all dizzy? We will not go on


that. -- how old is he? He celebrated his 70th birthday this




We saw the Amazon Echo, voice controlled speaker, take off. Then


we have the Google rival. Devices you talk to, voice becoming a new


interface. We have seen in mobile phones. This is a Google mobile


phone using the smart system. You also have Siri. Those are becoming


so much more sophisticated. So much smarter. For instant, when I ask,


who is someone, a good question is how all dizzy? That is not work. Are


people buying them? They are. These voice controlled speakers are out


there. These are things that are out there. They are in the environment.


Voice control is becoming a thing. This is the stuff when we were


younger we watch the science fiction films and there would be on a


spaceship. What amazes me is how blase we are about it. In Star Trek,


there were devices where you could speak one language and it will come


out in another. We have them. What about the driverless cars. There is


a lot of controversy? It feeds into the same thing, more intelligence


being built into allsorts of devices. We have come a long way


with driverless technology and I am expecting more demos of that. The


big show in Las Vegas in January. That sort of technology leads us


into the Internet of things. Yes. I have a bunch of devices, all


connected to the Internet. That is a smart doorbell with a camera on it.


It will identify who has come to your door and you can let the mean


by smart phone. Smart lighting that you can control -- let them in. I


just bought this. Jones, Jones, Jones! He wanted a drone. Lots more


up in the sky. --.... Hey, Siri, turn the Christmas lights on. Thank


you for joining us. That is it from Business Live. Thank you for


watching. See you in the New Year. Take care.


Yesterday's weather was all about Storm Barbara,


the second named storm for the season.


It has been a quiet winter season so far.


There is Barbara, the curl of cloud working into the UK.


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