Wed, 22 Jun 2011 CF99

Hello and welcome to CF99.

We will be discussing student fees, a warning from a scholar

that the Assembly will have to reconsider its policy.

And a temporary saviour for the badger.

Does that leave the Government and farmers in a hole?

How should Wales be financed in future?

We are joined by Plaid Cymru's AM Alun Ffred Jones,

Keith Davies from the Labour Party.

Tomos Dafydd from Aberystwyth University's

Institute of Welsh Politics is also here.

Who would be the favourite in a row? The politician or the scholar?

In the row over student fees, Wales' most prominent scholars

are raising questions about the Assembly's policy on tuition fees.

The Government promised to pay grants to students from Wales

which would mean that they won't have to pay more than £3400 for a course.

Will that be sufficient in the long term?

Owain Clark has been asking Professor Merfyn Jones about the fees,

the fighting, and his new post as the chairman

of the National College of Wales.

It's apparent that there are problems

in how we maintain this level of activity in higher education.

The Assembly Government and the Minister

has proposed a very different plan to England.

But the situation is being heavily influence by events in England.

It's obvious in my mind that this system in England

has been in place for a few years.

At some point, we will have to reconsider.

Can you understand why universities have said that they would

even if Leighton Andrews doesn't want them to raise the highest fees.

Why have they decided to do that? They are looking after number one.

I believe there is an element of 'We're as good as the next person.'

So, if Oxford charges £9000, then why can't we?

Because this idea that if they don't ask for £9000,

people may think that the standard won't be as high.

Many universities have this notion, I know a lot will deny this,

but there is a business element in running an university.

Is there bad feeling between the universities?

I think that arguing is in the nature of universities.

It's also in the nature of politicians.

So, we shouldn't be surprised.

In a mature political culture,

we should be able to get a good argument, if needed.

The aim is that the new Welsh National College

will start over the summer.

We have offered scholarships and fellowships.

But I believe that the most amazing thing about all of this

is that we can finance jobs.

The challenge is that we have to make sure that we recruit staff

and recruit students.

Are you confident the money will always be there

to finance this new venture?

I am very confident that there will be support for this.

There is dedication to this project.

Welsh-medium higher education does work.

There will be provision. We have targets, of course

and we have to increase the number of students who speak Welsh.

But there is further vision

which will inspires some of us.

We need to ensure that the Welsh language will be available

to hold talks in future.

The media does this now whereas in the past, it was the chapels.

I believe that it's important to the language that we can produce people

who can discuss properly and wisely through the medium of Welsh.

It's not an academic issue. It's more important than that.

If we want to have a complete language,

we need this project to work.

Keith Davies. Everyone understands Leighton Andrews' motive.

They are good motives. But he would also acknowledge

that this financing will only last for a few years.

Is there a long term system

or is this just a temporary system?

From what I can gather,

this will be financed by students coming in from England.

English students will contribute around £9000 in tuition fees

to come to Welsh universities.

Then, the Assembly will use that money to finance Welsh students

that will go to English universities.

I'm not sure how long that can last for.

The problem is that if I was an English student,

going to a Welsh university and found that the person next to me

paid £6000 less than me, because I was paying £9000,

I would feel that it would be unfair.

This could mean that fewer students from England come here.

The sums won't add up.

More and more students want to go to university and so it's competitive.

There was more competition this year than last year.

I don't see that happening.

What those students should do is go after the Tories in London.

Scotland is even better than us. There are no fees in Scotland.

We, are around £3000. But they should fight their own corner.

Alun Ffred Jones, this does depend on students from England

and other parts of the world, this is a bit risky, isn't it?

But under this formula, a lot of money goes to universities

beyond Wales, following the Welsh students studying outside Wales.

it's estimated around £50m. Is this sensible spending?

When the scheme was agreed, and I was part of the scheme,

which I am proud because it's disgraceful that English students

will leave university with debts of £30,000.

I think it's bonkers. I think this is the right decision.

There are concerns.

If Merfyn Jones raises doubts, Merfyn Jones is a Labour supporter,

and that isn't a accusation. There are doubts.

We have heard that said by head teachers.

Even though you can say that headteachers look after themselves,

paying students to study outside Wales

is a complex issue.

Imagine if you pay for a student to study outside Wales

with fees of £9000, whilst you have restrict Welsh fees to £7000,

there is something odd about that.

You are willing to pay those studying outside Wales

and pay students who are studying in Wales, less!

Is that sustainable?

As a minister, Leighton says that it is sustainable.

But I believe that there are lots of doubts surrounding it.

Do you think it's sustainable, Tomos?

What worries me most is that we are urging our prospective students

to go to England to study.

We should be urging our students to venture to the best universities

whether in England or beyond.

As far as I can see, this is less than a subsidy from the Assembly

to urge the prospective student to study in England.

But if £3400 they are paying wherever they go,

I might as well go to Cambridge instead of Glamorgan University.

The Assembly's Education Minister's main responsibility

should be to urge and build higher education here in Wales

and not subsidise English universities.

Prospective students should be urged to venture and go to universities

whether in England or beyond.

Leighton Andrews' main responsibilityis to develop

this sector in Wales.

What about this inclination by the Finance Council,

who have told the Assembly to go and reconsider

and not to raise £9000 in fees because changes have to be made.

but Leighton Andrews also believes that this is too much.

Does he want universities to appear secondary in Wales?

I don't know what the situation is in England.

My son is doing his A-levels and his first choice is London,

the Imperial, his second choice is Swansea.

He's choosing to go to London because of the course.

When I read about these new fees months ago,

it was Oxford, Cambridge and Imperial - £9,000,

but they didn't mention the other colleges in England charging that.

-So we don't know the situation yet.

-The English average is around £8,000

and I've heard that the average in Wales will be just over £7,000.

You're still paying more for someone leaving Wales, which sounds odd.

Let's quickly look at the Welsh College.

How confident are you, Ffred, that these ambitious targets

-will be met?

-I'm very confident.

And I was pleased to hear Merfyn Jones

saying that this was more than just preparing courses,

-that this was an ambitious project and...

-He opposed the idea.

He did oppose it in the past, the idea of a federal college anyway,

but to hear him talking... For me, establishing the national college

is one of the things that we can be proud of in the One Wales Government

But, Tomos, with the university budgets being so tight at the moment,

and the problem of fees, is it time for another layer of bureaucracy?

Wouldn't it be possible for the colleges to cooperate

without creating another college, with all the staff and jobs?

I received my higher education in Wales through the medium of Welsh

and I can say right now that the Welsh provision in university

was sparse at best. There was a lack of long-term strategy and vision

to plan and expand the Welsh provision at Welsh universities.

It's good to see the Welsh National College coming to fruition.

I think there is scope to expand the Welsh provision

and that is to be welcomed.

Do you have confidence in Merfyn Jones to do this?

Some people were surprised at his appointment.

It as a surprising appointment,

as he had voiced concerns about these plans in the past,

but it is a pioneering and ambitious scheme

that I think will lay strong foundations

to develop Welsh provision at universities.

Environment Minister John Griffiths has confirmed

plans to cull badgers in Pembrokeshire

will not be going ahead, for the time being at least.

A panel of experts will review the scientific evidence

relating to TB in cattle and badgers.

The decision has led to strong feelings

on both sides of the argument.

I'm very pleased.

I do feel for the farmers and the situation

and I understand that not everyone will be happy with this decision.

But I'm pleased.

Well, we need to look at everything,

but it's quite obvious that the badgers are spreading the TB.

So I'm quite disappointed.

They're too worried about the Badger Trust and people like that think,

legal challenges.

If they want to...

If they really are serious about sorting it out properly,

there needs to be some sort of cull.

The people in charge in Cardiff now, they don't understand.

That's the problem.

Keith Davies, your former coalition partners, Plaid Cymru,

have described this as betrayal. Why have you changed your mind?

Well, if you look at our manifesto, it's clear in the manifesto

that we want to ask the scientists for an answer,

to look at what's happening across the world and come back.

-We're not saying...

-Well, why was the decision made in the coalition?

-I wasn't there at the time.

-Not you personally, your party.

I don't know. All I know is that I was campaigning on the manifesto

and in the manifesto, it says clearly that we're going to get

a panel of scientists to look at the situation

to decide what is the best way to eradicate the problem we have.

Your Chief Vet, the vets of Wales have clearly stated

that this is a scheme... No-one knows if it will work 100%,

but this is a pioneering scheme.

How many panels do you want to form to come to the conclusion...?

The truth is the Labour Party has already made a decision

because John Griffiths was asked... If this panel comes back

and says they are in favour of a badger cull in this area,

would he stick to that - he would not answer.

But, Ffred, to be fair, the Assembly's scientific adviser

will choose the members of the panel, they will be scientists,

they could come back and say that

and it would be embarrassing for John Griffiths if he ignored

the advice of the panel.

Isn't it reasonable for a new government, that's what this is...

How many inquiry's do you want? This place has already held two.

I was part of the first and we had experts from across the UK

and beyond, we were in Ireland,

and of course, you won't get every expert to agree...

In fact, they disagreed with each other. That's the nature of it.

But the Agriculture Minister said we would have a venturesome scheme

and what happened? Nothing. And I foresee that happening again.

But you have the votes. Labour has 30 seats,

this is a subject on which the opposition parties are united.

It depends if it goes to a vote. I don't know if they have to.

They could keep the legislation in place but not do anything.

Tomos, as a commentator, watching this if you like,

the Westminster Government is getting cold feet

regarding a similar scheme.

Is there a suggestion here that Carwyn Jones is looking to London -

if they reconsider, then maybe we should do the same?

It's possible, but I feel it's a remarkable U-turn.

90 days ago, the government approved this policy.

As far as I see, nothing has changed regarding scientific evidence

to persuade the government to change direction.

What has happened is the government. There's been an election.

-The promise was in the manifesto.

-The political dynamic has changed.

And I think Keith Davies must acknowledge

that apart from Llanelli,

Labour has little presence in mid and west Wales.

So there was no political capital to lose in reforming this policy.

I think the image that the agricultural community has

is that this is an M4 Corridor government.

The agriculture post is basically now a part-time post,

a deputy minister and this is another chapter

which adds to that image - this is an urban government

that does not care about rural Wales.

On Monday afternoon... He has retired now.

He was the chief scientist for Welsh Water. He came to my office.

He gave me a list of six questions

that he had put before the Assembly before the election

and he had not received an answer.

One of the things that he said - if you go with this pilot now,

or you cull badgers and keep cattle in one spot,

how would the minister differentiate statistically and scientifically

between the two effects? Which was the best?

He didn't get an answer. The scientists are not in agreement.

And the second thing is, there is another way of looking at it,

and that is vaccinating animals.

You can't vaccinate the badgers that already have TB.

-No.

-Well, there we are. That stays with the badgers.

Look, you have the Chief Vet who is a good scientist

and she designed this scheme

and you're not listening to her because you have other priorities.

But aren't you merely listening to the people.

A recent opinion poll carried out by the BBC

says two-thirds of people don't want a cull.

-Are you worried about that?

-No. Let me tell you the second point -

In the Republic of Ireland, where they have been culling badgers,

over the past four years, they have culled 80,000 of them,

and the TB cases have increased.

In Northern Ireland, they've done nothing,

except look after the cattle and not move them around

-and it has fallen.

-You're over-simplifying.

Unfortunately, we must move on to another subject.

In a month's time, the Westminster coalition

is expected to announce the details of the commission

to look at how Wales is to be funded.

Yesterday, the First Minister outlined his shopping list,

looking once more at the Barnett Formula,

which decides how much Wales receives,

and certain tax raising powers, such as stamp duty.

Well, Tomos, it is quite a conservative shopping list.

How important is that he gets these extra powers?

It would be extremely significant and would transform politics here.

Carwyn is keen to devolve these minor taxes, if you like,

but is possible not as ambitious

when it comes to devolving corporation tax, for example,

which would a real effect in transforming the Welsh economy.

What's also interesting is that we traditionally think of Labour

as a tax raising party, but the only reason to have the stamp duty powers

or travel tax at airports is to cut them,

to give Cardiff Airport some kind of competitive advantage.

Yes, but we haven't heard many details so far.

We've heard a lot over recent weeks over devolving these powers.

I think there is a parallel with March's referendum.

There were arguments for devolving more powers,

but there were not many details on how that would be used in practice.

The challenge for Carwyn and the Government

is to expand on how the financial powers will be used

too boost the economy in the long-term.

Keith Davies, why is there a lack of ambition

regarding devolving financial matters?

Why not go for income tax, for example?

There are more powers, why not the responsibility too?

I'm not sure about that. I can answer corporation tax...

You're not sure about a lot of things this evening!

The corporation tax, what I've been told is that Northern Ireland

will have the right to change it, to lower it...

They want it. They haven't had it.

If they had the right to lower it in order to compete

with the Republic, they would lose money

because they would have to lower it. You have to be careful.

The same thing is happening in Scotland.

Are they going to lower it to compete with England?

Carwyn Jones' policy as I see it is whatever Scotland wants,

or Northern Ireland, I want it too!

That's not much of a policy.

In your manifesto, all you said about taxes

was that you didn't want the power to set income tax.

That's all you said about it.

In the weeks since the election,

suddenly Carwyn and the Labour Party have decided

-that they want all kinds of...

-We didn't mention raising income tax.

-No, you want other taxes.

-There is a practical point, Ffred.

There may be a symbolic argument for having these powers,

but during these economic times, if you cut those taxes,

the money comes off the block.

But having the power to vary different kinds of taxes

also goes hand in hand with borrowing.

If you can raise taxes, it is is easier to borrow.

But there was no mention of this weeks ago,

but now Alex Salmond has said exactly what he wants,

suddenly Wales is looking at Scotland and...

But that's because the UK Government

has said that the process will be looked at.

But now Scotland has made its case...

We had the Gerry Holtham inquiry, we've had that inquiry

and that's thanks to Plaid Cymru, we've seen what is needed,

as far as funding for Wales, what we hand alongside that

is, of course, more powers regarding tax.

I'm glad Carwyn has woken up to that.

Isn't it inevitable that eventually these powers will come in,

as we'll have more legislative powers?

We'll need to take responsibility for raising taxes to pay for that.

The biggest threat right now to the British constitution

is that we have a weak legislative body in Cardiff, to an extent,

a full parliament in Scotland, which is insisting on more powers,

and that is where the strain will come.

It's inevitable that symmetry is needed to the constitution.

I would say that the natural step is more accountability here

by devolving financial powers to the Assembly.

We'll leave it there. Thank you for joining us this evening.

And that's it. We'll be back at the same time next Wednesday.

-I hope you can join us.

-Until then, good evening.

-Enjoy the rest of the week.

-Goodnight.