Wed, 11 Jan 2012 CF99

Hello and welcome to our first meeting this year.

Happy New Year and there is enough to discuss already.

Tonight, independence for Scotland, the debate is hotting up.

And the questions are coming in for the next Plaid Cymru leader.

Boundary changes. A big change for Welsh MPs.

How will they affect you?

We are joined by AM Alun Ffred Jones and Nick Bennett

and political commentator at Rod Richards. Welcome to use three.

If you want to tweak your opinion during Earth Show,

used the hash tag CF99.

Plaid Cymru is still looking for a new leader,

but while the SNP in Scotland

are filling the front pages on their referendum debate,

Plaid Cymru has to fight to be relevant.

What challenges face the next leader

and what can they learn from the Scots?

Gwynfor Richard Evans - 16,179.

A big moment in the history of Plaid Cymru.

Gwynfor Evans winning the seat in Carmarthen in 1966

addressing his party from the town hall.

Today, the town hall has seen better days and needs rebuilding work.

After disappointing results in last year's elections,

it's easy to see how the party needs its period of rebuilding

considering the public opinion about them.

The image of Plaid Cymru is that it has not yet convinced voters

that it can do a good job in fields such as the economy.

In Scotland,the SNP have succeeded in convincing the electorate

to support it and as a result, independence is a hot topic.

For Wales and Plaid Cymru, the issue is more complicated,

with senior members saying more focus

needs to be put on other issues.

There is pressure on the economy and jobs are being lost.

New ones are not being created.

If we don't get to grips with that,

the electorate will not trust us.

If we ignore the things we face at the moment.

For one former candidate and former chairman

who has now left the party, independence is a central issue.

The party has given up giving the cause for independence

and for me, if independence isn't part of dealing with Wales' problems

there's no point in it.

If it's relevant to deal with the problems of Wales

that we face every day, it is a central issue.

The excitement was clear in the days of the first elections,

but despite a strong start they lost everything.

At the start of the devolution period,

Plaid Cymru was the party

that could argue best that they stood for Wales.

By now, all the parties argue that.

And they have developed policy programmes and more Welsh images

so it's harder for Plaid Cymru to argue

they are the party of Wales because many people compete for that title.

Years ago, Carmarthen was a centre for Gwynfor's supporters,

but what about today?

They need to move more to the centre from the left.

They don't have Gwynfor's vision.

I feel he had a vision.

Alex Salmond in Scotland is very similar, I think.

Plaid Cymru has only had five leaders

and their journey has been a long one over the years.

It is possible that the greatest challenge faces whoever takes over.

The names in the frame at the moment are AM Dafydd Elis-Thomas,

Elin Jones, Simon Thomas and Leanne Wood

with nominations closing at the end of the month.

Alun Ffred Jones, in terms of Plaid Cymru's priorities,

where would you place of independence?

It is tied in with economic issues,

that is what Scotland has done.

They have combined independence and the referendum,

or the choice to go half way with this cause.

We will come to that in a moment.

But those everyday issues that worry people,

such as jobs and their futures, all those things have to be tied in.

But there are differences of opinion on independence within the party

and unless the new leader gets to grips with it

and is clear about their aim,

it could turn into a kind of Europe issue for the Tories.

It won't turn into an issue because no one in Plaid Cymru

believes that in the end we don't need independence

with tax-raising powers

and legislating on internal matters and representation in Europe.

That means independence.

You can argue what independence is. This is central.

This is an exciting period for candidates.

Four candidates are in the frame,

three of them have a lot of experience.

One has very strong principles.

We are going through a period of looking again at our aims

and a way of working, so it is a very exciting time.

Whoever takes over Plaid Cymru next, part of the problem will be

that other parties, the Lib Dems, the Tories and Labour

have stolen their advantage.

Plaid Cymru was the party that defended Welsh issues

but now the other parties have come into that area.

I think one of the problems for Plaid Cymru

was being part of the government and being silenced

from giving its opinion on the Assembly government.

When you look back over 12 years.

Plaid Cymru is harshly criticising the current government now,

especially on education, but that came to late

to save them in the last election.

When you talk about independence, this is a problem.

I was listening to Alun Ffred Jones

talking about tax-raising powers and spending,

but if they want independence, you have to define it.

If you are going to be part of Europe and the euro,

the euro is always developing.

Before coming to you, Nick, quickly, would an independent Wales

be connected to the euro or the pound?

You have to take a long time to make those decisions.

Half a century, what are we talking about?

Don't be silly.

If you let me answer the question, I could say something.

There's an argument for more control over our own lives.

We need a parliament with proper powers

before we start discussing the euro.

Scotland has control over education and their legal system.

We want that first and then we will be able to aim

for some kind of relationship that will give us those rights.

On monarchy, Alex Salmond has made it clear

that the Queen would still be connected to Scotland.

Would she or whoever, by then, be connected with Wales?

That will be a matter for the people of Wales.

Independence is a matter for Wales too.

We have to come to Nick.

This will be a question for the people of Wales.

I think the people of Wales

deserve a party that is clear on this question

and it is clear that Plaid Cymru are not.

Alex Salmond casts a shadow over the Plaid Cymru leadership

and Europe is a big problem for them.

I remember 1999, the party had never campaigned for independence.

Wales in Europe was the scene.

It is now impossible to say that without raising the problem

of what happens with the euro.

You were part of this convention travelling around Wales

asking for opinions on devolution.

How keen where people for independence?

That is the big problem for Plaid Cymru,

the electorate is not very keen for more independence.

No. But to tell the truth, John Dixon had a point in that clip

in terms of Plaid Cymru campaigning the way the SNP has.

We found that with the convention

that around 10% were in favour of independence,

but 40% wanted to see other policies devolved to Wales

so people's understanding of what independence is not clear.

Plaid Cymru has to be clear on this matter.

It is not a matter for the electors, the party has to give leadership.

You can't tell them it is their decision.

Plaid Cymru's aim is an independent Wales,

does everybody understand that?

Can you let me finish?

Plaid Cymru's aim, according to their policy,

is independence for Wales.

On the way there, we have many steps to take.

It is interesting that Alex Salmond,

despite the fact that he gives strong leadership,

wants a referendum that would also give choice to the Scottish people

to go for different levels of devolution.

Is that your problem in Plaid Cymru?

With all due respect, there's no Alex Salmond, a shrewd leader?

The Lib Dems and Labour don't have an Alex Salmond either.

But they don't want to lead people to independence.

The SNP has a clear policy.

The SNP is in favour of independence and that is clear.

We don't have the same clear policy in Wales.

There are two parties,

one for independence and another full devolution.

Rod Richards, how should Cameron play this?

Alex Salmond is playing the game that he is coming in

with his size 10 big boots and interfering in Scotland.

What should Cameron do?

I think Plaid Cymru and other parties have made too much

of Alex Salmond's success.

He came in under the radar in the last election

and he's not as clever as some commentators say he is.

I think Cameron was right to draw people's attention

to the fact it would be illegal to have a referendum in Scotland

of the type that Alex Salmond wanted.

Both of them by now realise that they have to reach an agreement

on a referendum and when and what the question will be.

The last thing they want to see his debate in the High Court

making fools of Britain and Scotland.

Alex Salmond isn't under the radar, he has been ruling Scotland

with a minority for four years

and had a majority in the last election.

The big boys are playing now.

I'm sure we'll hear a lot more about that.

Carmarthenshire was the first electorate that Plaid Cymru won

and changes to constituency boundaries could create a seat

in Carmarthenshire once again.

They also intend to unite Anglesey and Menai

and Cardiff North and Caerphilly.

Wales would lose a quarter of its MPs

if Westminster gets its reforms.

What was the response there this afternoon?

As MPs have had a chance to consider

the new electoral map being suggested for Wales

and joining me to talk about it is the Tory MP

for the Vale of Glamorgan, Alun Cairns

and the Labour MP for Llanelli, Nia Griffiths.

I will ask both of you.

Are you happy or unhappy with what has been suggested?

It is a difficult situation.

The Vale of Glamorgan will now be the same size

as other constituencies.

In previous times, it has been very uneven.

You are quite happy to consider the bigger picture?

It is complicated.

The Labour Party has come out a lot better than anyone expected.

The Conservatives is losing out.

There will be battles between two individuals.

It is more complicated than people think.

Do you agree with Alun Cairns?

Are you feeling relieved in the party?

I'm unhappy that Wales has less representation in Westminster,

going from 40 to 30 MPs.

It is fair to say the commissioners have done quite a fair job

because they have cut down on every party.

We in the Labour Party have come out quite well.

What, in your opinion, is the most significant change?

What is happening now is that we will have to get a consensus

in our party and tell the commission

if changes need to be made.

But when you look at the geography of Wales,

and when you understand we need the same number of people

in every constituency, there's not much room to move.

Alun Cairns, did any decisions surprise you?

Cardiff North uniting with Caerphilly,

there's no natural connection there.

And also some parts of Newport

joining up with communities where I would not see natural connections.

I am not very familiar with the communities

so perhaps it is unfair that I give my opinion on them.

But I think we need to look again at some areas of Cardiff.

What is inevitable is that your party's senior figures

will have to compete with each other.

Pembrokeshire and North Wales are obvious areas.

We have four strong MPs in that area

who will fight for two constituencies.

So it does create a difficult situation.

But we need to bring fairness back because as I said earlier,

there will be the same number of people

in every constituency, not as we had before

with an extra 50% for me compared to other areas.

Nia Griffith, how many seats does the Labour Party expect to lose?

We'll see what happens, but perhaps something like five.

There is a consultation period taking place,

but in terms of the constituencies, some of them are huge.

South Powys, in particular going from Ystalyfera up to Welshpool.

Will it be too hard for MPs to represent their constituents

in terms of geography if nothing else?

I don't think it will be too hard.

You have to remember that parts of England and Scotland

are very remote and cover huge areas.

In the past, Welsh constituencies were quite small,

with technology we have nowadays, they are not too big at all.

Is that going to be fairer, Alun Ffred Jones?

If you look at your constituency of 40,000,

one of the smallest in Wales in terms of voters,

it isn't fair that Brecon and Radnorshire has 54,000 constituents

and is so much bigger.

We could argue that point but we believe this is a bit of a mess.

It's only four or five years since we last changed the boundaries.

People will be confused about who's representing them and which constituency they're in.

I think this should be done with a view to strengthen powers in Scotland and Wales,

that would then make sense to reduce the number of MPs.

As things stand, we need to look carefully at the boundaries.

The new Glyndwr and North Powys seat is an odd one.

There's a big mountain in between!

There are other examples where towns are split and so on.

In terms of what Alun was saying, is the confusion,

especially given the differences between Assembly

and Westminster constituencies,

is it inevitable that Assembly boundaries will change to match the Parliamentary ones?

I think the evidence in Scotland suggests having these

different boundaries is confusing.

I think that's a risk. I'm in favour of cutting the number of MPs.

It would have been a gravy train, to have carried on with 40,

bearing in mind devolution and the amount of constituency work that was going on locally.

I also have to say, the way that devolution is evolving,

I'd like to see us with more Assembly Members in future.

We can't pursue devolution and keep sending 40 MPs to Westminster.

It's just not possible.

Alun Ffred, it might be confusing for voters,

but it poses a bigger challenge in terms of how to organise political parties.

For the Assembly vote, your party is likely to campaign in Arfon.

But perhaps in Westminster you'll have to include

Anglesey in your campaign.

That may be true

but we don't consider that a very important consideration.

-Parties will have to adapt to that.

-Will that be expensive?

-Of course it's expensive.

I'm certainly against modifying these new boundaries for the Assembly.

I think that would be very unwise.

I don't think there should be any further shake-ups until we've gained more powers here.

Then we can consider the point Nick raised

over increasing the number of AMs here in relation to the workload.

-We will then need fewer MPs.

-There's an inconsistency here.

They want independence on one hand but then again they want more MPs.

Make your minds up, for heaven's sake.

We want more members here, not in Parliament. You're not listening to me.

No, you want 40 MPs rather than 30.

I was talking about Assembly members.

What should the system be here, Rod Richards?

First past the post, proportional representation

and Peter Hain wants all systems to be first past the post.

What's your view?

What with these new constituencies,

the Assembly needs to look at the boundaries

and they must then consider changing the system here.

It's then a matter of consulting with political parties

and other interested parties.

I don't think that we need more Assembly Members at all.

The ones we've got at the moment,

to be completely honest, the ones we've got now barely work full-time.

THEY TALK ACROSS EACH OTHER

How many surgeries do you hold every week?

-I hold two every week.

-Two per week.

Excuse me, maybe you don't work hard when you're here but I certainly do.

The committees worked when I was here. They're not working now.

Let's bring Nick Bennett in, here.

You can act as referee.

In terms of technology, has technology changed the work here?

Are face-to-face surgeries necessary or, as many people said today,

a lot of work is done online, through Facebook.

MPs are contacted via Twitter and so on. Is that enough?

I think it's an important element and I think we need to ensure

members have the necessary skills to communicate with constituents.

If you look at the size of some of these new seats,

I think they are too big.

After the expenses scandal and so on,

the cost of simply driving around the Gwynedd seat or Powys South would be enormous.

Would you be able to navigate the internet well enough to access web cameras and so on?

More and more people are contacting us through the internet and e-mail.

Many more than they used to and many more than are attending old fashioned surgeries.

On the other hand, you want to meet them face-to-face.

Speaking of Twitter and technology, thank you for all your comments.

Adam Jones left a message saying,

"Independence is what nationalists should be aiming for in Wales but they need to be patient.

"We're in a totally different situation to Scotland."

Jo Pelly tells Alun Ffred it's time to reconsider his decision not to put his name forward for leadership.

If not, he says, support Leanne Wood's nomination. What's your response to that?

Thank you for the offer.

I feel as though I've had a good innings

and I am prepared to support whoever is elected.

-You won't reveal your preference beforehand?

-No.

-Why not?

-There are many reasons that I don't think I'll go into now.

-You're afraid to!

-Not at all.

We might find out eventually.

Thanks to all three of you.

That's all for tonight.

I'll be back with Vaughan Roderick, but thanks to Arwyn tonight,

next Wednesday night after the football at 9.45pm.

Come on, Wrexham! We hope you'll join us then. For now, good night.

Good night.