Wed, 25 Jan 2012 CF99

Good evening and welcome to CF99.

Tonight, on St Dwynwen's Day and on Burns Night,

we'll be looking at the future of the UK.

Is a divorce on the cards in the new Act of Union?

Is the call for a parliament for England on the increase?

More than enough to discuss.

How about putting the red roses and the haggis to one side for half an hour.

Join in the discussion by Tweeting us on #CF99.

The three who have eaten their porridge ready for a debate tonight

are the AMs, Bethan Jenkins from Plaid Cymru

and Paul Davies from the Conservatives.

Also joining us is Professor Richard Wyn Jones

from the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University.

He's in our Westminster studio. Thanks for your company.

Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?

That's the question Alex Salmond wants Scottish people

to answer in autumn 2014.

The debate has been started but plenty to decide.

Will there be a second question, devo-max, perhaps,

that would offer further powers to the Scottish Parliament.

Who will be allowed to vote?

The big question for us is what will be the implications of the debate

and the vote for us in Wales.

Owain Clarke is in Edinburgh.

A referendum on independence isn't just an idea or aspiration

these days but an event.

They are already preparing the ground.

Despite the rows over details, nobody's in any doubt

that the vote will take place in three years' time.

There will be celebrations here tonight.

An' cut ye up wi' ready slight.

They won't be praising Mr Salmond's vision, but the life

of one of the nation's most famous people, the poet, Robbie Burns.

It's possibly no coincidence that Mr Salmond has chosen this day

to outline the preparation he wants to see in the referendum.

From poet to literary legend, Burns' journey was a remarkable one.

Three centuries on from the 1707 Union,

the people of Scotland elected a majority pro-independence government,

the government I'm proud to lead to revisit that decision.

This time the decision will be made democratically

by the people of Scotland.

Over breakfast, an opportunity to discuss it

with some students in Edinburgh.

For Scottish people who live in Edinburgh and in Scotland,

the economy, politics, education, health, the welfare state

are things that will turn opinion.

These are the things that Salmond needs to concentrate on.

How important is it that Salmond has this choice in the referendum

from devolving financial powers, this idea of devo-max.

I would argue it's more than just policy

and that's what he really wants.

I think he would be more than happy with devo-max

and I think that's what will happen.

The Scottish people I've spoken to

and from what I've been reading in the papers,

I get the feeling they'd be more than happy

and supportive of devo-max and independence is a step too far.

What would the affects be outside Holyrood?

Not everyone knows that one part of Wales has beaten Alex Salmond to it.

# Wales, England and Llanrwst!#

In 1947, this place, Llanrwst, tried for membership to the UN

because Llywelyn ap Gruffydd in the 13th century

had earmarked the town as an independent state.

Perhaps some would wonder what would Llanrwst's status would be

if the UK should split,

but the effect on Wales is definitely being discussed.

This is something for the Scottish electorate

but it will effect everyone in the UK.

That's why it's something we, in Wales, have to take an interest in.

Scotland leaving the UK would impact on Wales.

In my opinion it would be disappointing

if they left the UK, I think Scotland strengthens

the relationship between the different areas of the UK.

Naturally, Holyrood and Alex Salmond is centre of attention today.

But the excitement of the debate in Scotland

over the next few years

will have repercussions further than this place.

Bethan Jenkins, you must be jealous

watching what's happening in Scotland,

but nothing has been won by Alex Salmond yet.

He could lose.

I think it's an exciting time for Scotland and Nationalists

to see what the SNP has done in Government

and what it is offering with regard to having a referendum

on independence for Scotland.

Today we've seen the question and details about the consultation.

I think Scotland should decide when that happens.

We have to look at what's happening to see how Wales will be affected.

What about this second question, this idea of a devo-max?

That idea seems to be very popular.

But it's hard to see how a referendum

that gave different choices would work.

From what I understand,

it will be a part of the consultation that'll take place.

I think it's important that we at least consider this option

because, maybe people aren't totally confident at the moment

with complete independence, but want more powers.

That is what we want in Wales with more powers over the police

and broadcasting, for example.

Richard Wyn Jones, on the second question.

Is Alex Salmond inviting Labour to adopt devo-max?

He doesn't want it himself, but wants it on the paper.

Will Labour adopt it?

I was listening to Carwyn Jones talking

and expressing these concerns.

What strikes me is that if Carwyn Jones

feels so strongly about the future of Scotland,

then it's amazing that he hasn't got more power on this matter

as the main Labour politician in Wales.

As a Labour politician isn't knocking Ed Miliband's door

every day and asking him,

why aren't you offering something like devo-max to us?

Why are you sticking to Calman

and the process that has been a disaster for the parties?

With regard to Alex Salmond himself, this is perfect.

If the Unionist Parties do not offer

something better than Calman,

then this measure going through the Parliament behind me

has lost all credibility.

And if they don't do that, the SNP is going to be in a situation

where it can say to the voters in Scotland,

"Look, we've given the Unionist Parties this offer,

but they have rejected it.

They want to stick with something that's lost all credibility.

What about it? Let's go for it."

It strikes me the Unionists are taking an incredible gamble.

What about the "No" campaign?

Paul Davies, do you agree with most people that a Tory leader

shouldn't be a leader.

The Scots don't want a Tory from Eton telling them what to do?

It's unfortunate with regard to timing?

I don't think so.

What's important is that the people of Scotland

have the right to a referendum if that is what they want.

Alex Salmond has at last made a statement today

about the question, but it's up to the people of Scotland in the end.

I don't think the people of Scotland will vote in favour of independence

when that time comes.

But who should lead the "No" campaign then?

I think the question should be asked earlier than 2014

because there will be this uncertainty now.

But who should lead the "No" campaign?

I think they should hold the referendum as soon as possible.

Who should lead the "No" campaign?

It's matter for politicians in Scotland I think.

We'll have to see who will lead that campaign.

A part of the problem here for the Conservatives

and Labour is that a disastrous thing for the campaign

would be a perception that London chose the leader of the campaign

and was interfering.

Alex Salmond has created

a very clever situation here, hasn't he?

It's as if he appears to be talking for Scotland,

and the UK Government is talking as a foreign Government.

The Unionist Parties have created this situation for themselves.

I was listening to Paul Davies, and I respect him

but the SNP wanted a referendum

during the last Parliament between 2007 and 2011.

The Unionist Parties stopped it at that time.

Once the SNP wins, the Unionist Parties change their position

and say they want a referendum tomorrow.

There is no credibility.

It's no surprise that Alex Salmond is on top of the world.

If you say the SNP wants a referendum as soon as possible,

why don't they hold the referendum this year?

What I'm saying is that the SNP has tried to get a measure

through the Scottish Parliament, but didn't push it through

because the Unionist Parties said the Scottish people

should not vote be able to vote on this matter.

My point is this, the problem is the Unionist Parties

don't have any strategy as far as I can see.

They're just responding over time.

There is no consistency, so it's easy for the SNP to be in control.

Bethan Jenkins, let's look at the knock-on effect in Wales.

Carwyn Jones says any change would have an effect on Wales.

We're only 11 months on from the last referendum on devolution in Wales.

They are talking about

an independence referendum in Wales by 2020.

Is it inevitable we move in that direction now?

If Scotland becomes independent,

then we'll have to discuss the future of the UK.

Today we've heard David Melding, the Conservative Assembly member,

talking about federalisation within the UK.

I think the Conservatives need to catch up

with the discussion in the context of the constitution

or future of Wales because Scotland is so close to independence now.

A British federal, how would that work?

I have been campaigning with David Melding for a federal system.

I think that is the only way we're going to protect the UK.

I want to see a federal system in Britain.

Richard, do you think there is much chance

of having a federal system?

Would it have worked? Is it too late for Scotland?

You could argue that the best time to do this

would have been before the great war.

The problem with federalism and this has been discussed time and again

and I don't want to go over this.

The problem with federalism is the size of England.

England is so large compared to the other countries.

Nobody has offered some kind of an idea of how a federal system

could work with such one large country within it.

Until somebody does offer a way of doing that, this idea,

which is favoured by many politicians, across the parties

is not going to happen.

Which leads us perfectly to our next item.

The people of England have been quite quiet,

as Wales and Scotland start on their devolution paths.

But with Wales voting in favour of more powers for the Assembly

and Alex Salmond calling for independence for Scotland,

it seems voters in England are starting to take notice

of what's happening.

Geographically, this is all that separates Wales and England.

Politically, the gap between the two countries is growing.

A report shows that an increasing number of voters in England

believe that the system of devolution is not fair on them.

Many people in England believe, unfairly perhaps,

that Wales and Scotland are profiting more than them.

The figures don't show that, but that is the feeling.

A lot of people feel that devolution has not been to their advantage.

The research by the Institute for Public Policy Research,

as well as Cardiff and Edinburgh universities,

show a significant increase in the number of people over Offa's Dyke

who feel the Assembly has had a negative impact

on the way Britain is governed.

31% thought the effect of the Assembly on British governance

is negative, compared to 11% in 2007.

While politicians in Wales are calling for more money

for the Assembly, over a quarter of those asked

thought Wales receives more than its share of public money.

And only 7% thought England gets more than its fair share

of the money.

79% said only English MPs should vote on issues

that only affect England.

As Scotland's confidence and, to a degree, Wales' confidence develops,

I think awareness of an English national identity grows at the same time.

This man, Paul Silk,

has already started assessing the way the Assembly is funded.

The British Government has established a commission

to look at the West Lothian Question.

Personally, I don't want the situation to change.

I think it's right as it is.

But other people don't agree and that's why we've established

a commission to look at the way we can deal with this.

There is a stronger English identity but we don't think it's a problem.

I think it's natural.

The report warns that politicians need to welcome this growth

in English identity because it's becoming clear

that the attitudes of English people are just as crucial in framing

the debate on the future constitution of the United Kingdom.

Richard Wyn Jones, one of the authors of that report,

you say the sleeping dog is now awake.

Will a strong English identity

become a dangerous form of nationalism, if you like?

Not necessarily.

There has been a view from the left

that an English identity in itself is xenophobic.

I think that's unfair.

The English identity has become politicised.

It's becoming wrapped up in politics.

What we've found in the campaign is that the more you feel

England is being treated unfairly in the current constitution,

the more you feel the political constitution should be adapted

to recognise England as a nation.

At the moment, England exists

because Scotland has gone in one direction, Wales in another,

and Northern Ireland in another direction.

England is what you have left. But it isn't treated as "England".

It's treated as "Britain". We don't discuss the English identity.

People in England are unhappy about that.

But what isn't clear is what they want as a constitutional solution.

If you ask the question in one way,

they say they want a parliament for England.

If you ask it in another way,

they say they want to stop MPs from countries beyond England

and Westminster from voting on issues that only relate to England.

None of the political parties are comfortable discussing this

so there's no political leadership

to this feeling that's developing in England.

That could be the danger.

Let's talk about that, Paul.

For the Conservative Party, the traditional unionist party,

there are voices within the party, perhaps from the Eurosceptic wing,

that appear to be happy enough to voice a nationalistic message

and that could be equally as damaging to the UK as Alex Salmond's message.

I'm not sure about that.

I think, and Richard might accuse me of being too simplistic,

but that's why it's important that we see a federal system

to deal with the tensions in England.

If I was a Conservative Member in England,

I'd be campaigning strongly for an English parliament.

I think we need a balance...

-A parliament for England would be your preference?

-Definitely.

That would be my choice. We have to see a balance across the UK.

A parliament in Wales, England, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

That's what I think the solution is.

What about the issue of size?

Somebody told me it's like trying to establish a federal system between California and Connecticut.

England is so big.

I don't see the problem because you can devolve

fields like education and health to the English parliament.

We would have a UK parliament to deal with foreign issues,

defence issues, benefits, taxes perhaps.

That's what the UK Government would deal with.

I don't see a problem with a federal system.

I think the Tory Party will deal with this matter in the end.

Bethan Jenkins, Alex Salmond spoke in London last night.

He's going on a tour around England now.

He wants to inspire this idea of national identity and nationalism

in England, doesn't he?

It's in his interest.

Would it be in your interest to strengthen that feeling in Wales?

Well, this research has arrived at an excellent time for Alex Salmond

-to justify...

-And excellent for Richard Wyn!

To justify that people in England now feel a sense of nationalism,

where they didn't feel as strongly because of the nature of devolution.

What I would say is, it's obvious that the Westminster Government

won't implement such radical and popular policies

because they want Welsh and Scottish policies.

They're jealous of what we do in Wales.

We need to ask why they're unhappy with what they have at the moment.

Would it be convenient for you

to see a growth in this sense of English identity?

I think it's good that they feel some sort of link with England

because previously the BNP has been linked with the English flag,

rather than a feeling of pride and confidence in the country.

That's why they say, "I'm British more than English".

They didn't want to discuss those things.

Bethan's happy that people in England are unhappy

because she wants England to tell us to be independent.

That's why it's important that the British parties

deal with this issue.

We need a debate on this and the only way we can solve this is with a federal system.

Richard, decades ago, Gwynfor Evans wrote a book

called Diwedd Prydeindod (The End of Britishness).

Is that what we're seeing, even in England?

No, I think that's a bit of a sweeping statement.

If you look at the patterns of national identity in Wales, Scotland

and England, the majority still feel some sense

of dual-nationality.

English and British, for example.

But what's happening more in England than anywhere else

is that the English identity is being emphasised more and more.

The challenge for people who want to see the continuation of the UK

is to find an institutional system which allows people to express

their Welsh, English or Scottish identity within a British framework.

Sorry, Richard, a quick word from the other two to close.

Will we be sitting here in four years' time or so

discussing a new Act of Union, Bethan Jenkins?

With what's happening in Scotland,

it's inevitable that there will be changes beyond our control

so we will be discussing issues like this in the future.

Paul Davies, is this the beginning of the end for the UK?

No, I don't think so. I don't see Scotland leaving the UK.

We'll see. A message from 'Biscuits', who says it's been an important and interesting discussion.

That's it for tonight.

We'll be back at the same time next week.

-Thank you for your company.

-Are there biscuits?

-Good night.

Goodbye. See you next week.