27/02/2013 CF99

Good evening

and welcome to CF99 live from the Assembly in Cardiff Bay.

Coming up tonight: How keen are people in Wales on Brussels?

We'll have the answer from our poll,

which may surprise you, and disappoint many in Cardiff Bay.

And the Minister rejects the recommendations

of the Welsh Language Commissioner.

What does it mean for the language policy

and the role of the Commissioner?

We have appointed people as commissioners

because they have them in other countries,

but we don't need them in Wales.

Joining us are Iestyn Davies from the Federation of Small Businesses,

The Chair of the Positif Communication Company

and marketing lecturer at Glamorgan University, Llyr Roberts,

and from Westminster, the Labour MP for Clwyd South, Susan Elan Jones.

-Welcome.

-Thank you.

More on the interesting results of our survey in a moment.

First, the Commissioner, the Minister and the language.

This week, Leighton Andrews rejected the Welsh Language Commissioner's

findings on language standards - the rules governing the Welsh language

services public bodies and some private companies should provide.

The decision has disappointed language campaigners

and has raised questions over the role of the Commissioner.

James Williams reports.

Preparing for a long journey, but are those who try to promote

the language travelling in the right direction

or going around in circles?

There's no point in a Commissioner if it's not independent.

We need a Welsh speaker to help us make more use of the language.

John Walter Jones also said that legislation

is not the most important issue when promoting the language,

but people like Becky James, cycling's new star.

But the legislation has been central

to the talks over the language this week,

and Leighton Andrews's decision to reject the findings of

the Welsh Language Commissioner.

I didn't think the findings are clear.

I don't think they explain the responsibility

people have in every sector.

The purpose of the standards is to explain how public bodies

and private companies should use the Welsh language.

And discuss that kind of services people can expect to receive

through the medium of Welsh.

I think we have to continue with the system we have at the moment.

We have to make sure there is pressure on the Commissioner

and the Minister to make sure this delay is does not last too long.

I think the census has proved we need to tackle this quickly

and ensure the Welsh language flourishes.

And there is a lot of work to be done to make sure

that language policies are on the right track.

20% of people in Wales or 582,368

recorded themselves as Welsh speakers in 2001.

But ten years later, there was a fall of 20,000 people.

The challenge is clear, but in what direction should we travel?

The Commissioner, Meri Huws, said her officials

and some Ministers will move forward with developing the standards.

But some have raised questions over the purpose of a Commissioner.

Maybe we have to look again at what is the role of the Commissioner?

It is a shame because there is a lot of work to be done,

and I don't want to delay the work that needs to be done.

Once again, we are going down the legislative path,

and I've never believed that is the right way to go

where the Welsh language is concerned.

I have read the letter from the Minister to the Commissioner,

and it is clear to me that his officials

have been interfering with the work of the Commissioner.

They have been telling her how to do her job,

and there's no independence in that.

If the Commissioner isn't independent,

what's the point having a Commissioner?

The Welsh Language Society has asked what the priority

is for the Minister.

The big companies or the language?

A panel established to look at links between the language

and economic development, companies now expect to have to provide

information through the medium of Welsh.

Large companies have expressed concern regarding

costs of implementing Welsh language services.

But I think most large companies

have become familiar with providing a Welsh language service.

There's a long way to go before final standards are implemented.

After going in different directions, will the Minister

and the Commissioner reach the end of the journey together?

On your bike, mate!

We asked for an interview with the Commissioner,

but she rejected our invite.

Susan Elan Jones, does this seem like a mess to you?

Two years after the legislation was passed,

we are still in the middle of nowhere.

I don't think it is a mess,

but I'm sure many people will feel disappointed.

I can sympathise with that,

but the most important thing is to make sure we get the strategy right.

This morning, I was thinking back at the mess in Westminster

regarding the West Coast Main Line. When they didn't get that right.

Legal action was taken, and it ended up in the courts.

We don't want that to happen.

This is the first time that we'll have this legislation.

We have got to get this legislation right.

The Welsh Language Society says the Minister

has yielded to pressure from big companies.

But he has denied that.

The Minister has said if they had accepted these recommendations,

the Commissioner would be back and forth to the courts every week

because the strategy was not clear enough.

-What explanation have you got?

-I don't accept that.

I don't accept that there is political pressure between

the Minister, Leighton Andrews, and other bodies in Wales.

I think we need to make sure the strategy is clear and transparent.

We have to expect that from any legislation.

But I have to ask where the dialogue

has been between the Commissioner's office and the Minister's office.

Why has this dispute happened in the first place?

They should be communicating properly.

If we want the Commissioner to be independent,

isn't it a good thing that they have not been working too closely?

We have to make sure that we understand what the system is.

The problem could stem from the legislation.

The Commissioner's responsibility is to form the standards,

but the Government puts them forward to the Assembly

to create legislation.

That could be a problem with the system.

Maybe the Assembly should set the standards

and the Commissioner should maintain those standards.

I agree. This legislation isn't working.

I still miss the Welsh Language Board.

I don't think there's a point in what John Walter is doing.

This is the system we have.

I read these standards myself today, and I didn't oppose anything.

I agreed with everything because there are some strong ideas,

but there are 37 of them, and they are very long.

They were getting into far too much detail.

I think it's a good thing that the civil servants

have now had a chance to look at them,

and they will be able to work with the Commissioner to simplify them.

I think 15 or 20 would be enough.

Susan Elan, do you long for the days of the Welsh Language Board?

We used to have a system that worked well enough

if it had been policed a little bit more effectively.

I don't agree with that. We had to have this new legislation.

If you look at the census figures,

we have seen a significant fall in the number of Welsh speakers.

We have to look at a solution to tackle that.

I think we're on the right track.

What worries me in this present system

is who is responsible for promoting the Welsh language?

We have a crisis with the census figures,

and I don't see any leadership.

We did have some pioneering figures in the Welsh Language Board.

The Commissioner and the Government are responsible.

We know that services are provided through the medium of Welsh,

which are used by very few people.

I'm not saying those services are not important,

but there are things that are more effective than having

a helpline which may be used by a thousand people in Wales.

We need a strategy which promotes and normalises the use of Welsh.

Many people in Wales who are able to speak Welsh mostly use English.

We have to make sure that we use the language in many different ways.

Personally, I'm not interested in which language

someone receives a letter in.

I am more concerned about day-to-day activities

and those activities being available through the medium of Welsh.

Susan, do you agree that this is where the focus should be?

The battle is going to be won or lost in schools across Wales.

There are two very important elements here.

We have to promote the language among young people.

Wales has got to be seen as a community language across Wales.

Individuals need to have the right to use Welsh.

But that right isn't worth anything

unless you have an opportunity to use Welsh.

There is a fake agenda here. There is fake tension here.

Unless we accept that we need more opportunities to speak Welsh,

we will struggle.

Confident is another important issue.

Now we have people who can speak Welsh but are too afraid to use it.

The Welsh Language Board was responsible for promoting

the language and encouraging young people to speak Welsh.

I don't know who is responsible now.

Now the results of BBC Wales' annual opinion poll.

We have already announced the results relating to the Health Service,

the popularity of the party leaders and devolution.

Tonight, CF99 can reveal another set of results relating to the EU

and the results are bound to surprise those who have argued

that the Welsh are more positive about Brussels

than people over the border. Tomos Livingstone reports.

Over the last decade, the talks in Brussels have been kind to Wales.

Billions of pounds have come from the European Union

to help Wales' most deprived areas.

Some say that has created a special bond

between Wales and the Eurocrats.

But according to an opinion poll by BBC Wales, 49% of people questioned

would rather see Wales leaving the European Union completely.

Only 45% felt Wales had benefited from being

a part of the European club.

The presumption is that Wales has gained a lot of money from Europe.

Wales has benefited a lot from the European Union,

but many people aren't aware of that.

The First Minister has made some strong statements

against David Cameron's desire to perhaps distance

ourselves from Europe, but that may not benefit Wales.

Perhaps we have to accept that this goes against people's wishes.

Perhaps we have to accept that this goes against Labour in Wales.

The context is David Cameron's promise to hold a referendum

after the next general election on Britain's relationship with Europe.

The latest polls suggest the referendum could be very close.

David Cameron wants to reach a new settlement

and stay within the European Union.

Where does the poll result leave the Prime Minister's strategy?

Many people in Wales have been receiving European money

for a long time, so it's surprising that a lot of Welsh people

feel we should leave the European Union.

This says volumes about the failure of the EU.

It's crucial we have changes within Europe

so that we can offer these to the British people

so they can see how the system should work.

We need to work on the relationship between Wales,

Westminster and Europe.

The Government in Cardiff Bay says our future in Europe

is crucial to our economic growth.

The First Minister will be going to Brussels tomorrow.

County council leaders have already travelled there this week.

They suggest that David Cameron does not speak for Wales.

But has the Government of Wales made a mistake?

Carwyn is clear. He has seen the numbers.

The contribution that Europe makes to the Welsh Government's budget

is in the hundreds of millions.

He doesn't want to lose that.

It would be a tragedy if the First Minister loses that money.

But he has an argument against the Tories as well

as the Labour Party in Westminster.

The referendum on Europe is on the horizon.

There is no certainty that David Cameron will win the next election,

but if there is a referendum, how popular will Europe be in Wales?

You move in business circles, and I would imagine they are Euro-sceptics.

Many of them wonder why we are part of the European community.

But as a body, we've said that the single market, for example,

is important and that such a market should be

maintained in the future whatever happens with the European Union.

Personally, I think it's very foolish to try and persuade

people to be part of the European Union on the basis of the economy.

That's an argument that everybody's going to lose at the moment.

It's very difficult to persuade anyone in a referendum,

and I have experience of this, to vote 'Yes' for anything.

It's much easier to vote 'No' or go against something,

especially in a referendum.

So as a body, we're quite agnostic in terms of

whether we should be a part of the European Union or not.

Personally, I think there are very important reasons to be

a part of Europe which are nothing to do with the economy.

But maybe that's a different debate.

Llyr, did those figures surprise you?

Or have you sensed a disconnection between what people here think

and what people outside these glass walls think?

I do sense a disconnection.

If you'd asked me this question five years ago, I would have said,

yes, I'm definitely voting in favour of staying in Europe.

I like the idea of being a part of Europe, I like the European

culture, the Mediterranean, the Scandinavian countries.

But increasingly, as someone who spends his time looking at business

models and looking at the challenge from China, it worries me

when I see the inability of the European structures to deal

quickly enough with the problems of Greece and Italy.

I genuinely find myself...

I don't want to be a Euro-skeptic

because I don't like the people who are Euro-skeptics!

But I do find myself thinking, I wonder which way I'd vote today.

Susan, is the Welsh Government responsible

for causing a problem here?

Something Guto Bebb was referring to then.

That all this European money has come in and has gone to the valleys

and so on and people see the projects but they don't see that their

economic lives and their economic opportunities have improved.

A lot of that money has been spent on good things

but it hasn't really transformed the economy.

I don't really agree with him on that.

I think if you compare the figures in Wales

with the figures in England, there's a difference.

But to be honest,

whatever you call Europhiles in Cardiff Bay,

I don't really call myself a Europhile, instinctively.

But to be honest with you, I think the idea of going outside

the European Union is completely crazy.

Just talk to companies like Airbus.

There's all the uncertainty about investment.

No, I think at the end of the day, the practical argument will win.

You say practical,

but what's odd is we've been a member of the European Union now since '72.

So we're talking about a long time.

And yet, unlike almost every other country in the Union,

it's as if we're always discussing leaving.

I remember that time.

I was very young.

I remember people like my grandfather

saying that it was a bad thing to go into the common market.

At the same time, the Liberals in Wales

and Plaid Cymru was against it too.

But to be honest,

when we had the referendum in the 70s

we voted in favour of staying in and I think

if there is a referendum I think we'll stay in the European Union.

But what I don't want is all the uncertainty

caused by David Cameron's ideas,

who himself has changed his mind about a referendum.

There's a by-election in England tomorrow in Eastleigh

and some journalists are predicting that UKIP could come second

or are even predicting that UKIP could win.

If that happens, Iestyn,

and that uncertainty that Susan referred to increases,

what would your members, who export or who depend on deals with Europe,

would they start worrying, not so much about being in or out,

but about the uncertainty?

The question is, how will it affect the condition of the economy

in Wales and Britain and inside Europe?

What will be the implications

in terms of exporting to countries outside Europe?

All those questions then become important.

As you said, some businesses are quite Euro-skeptic constitutionally

and believe the whole future of Europe

depends on solving this problem we have at the moment.

As Llyr said, it's very unlikely, from what we see inside Europe

and the European Union, that the will is there to solve the problem.

At the end of the day, it's not the readers of the Western Mail

that will decide whether we're a part of Europe in the future.

The readers of the Daily Mail will have the biggest vote

and that, maybe more than anything, concerns me.

Or maybe the readers of whichever newspaper is the biggest in Rome,

because it's not impossible for the European Union or the Eurozone

to get into deep trouble and the whole thing could collapse.

I don't think that's going to happen.

What worries me is that we'll have 25 years of deterioration.

That Europe will go backwards and the Far East

and China will grow quickly.

It worries me that if we're a part of this thing that's deteriorating

during the next quarter of a century,

it'll be 25 years of deterioration for us.

Increasingly, I think we have to shift our focus to India and China.

Maybe being on the fringes of Europe is better

with regard to changing the focus.

But do we move that focus as Britain, as Wales or as Europe?

In an ideal world, as Europe.

But it's so big

and getting 27 countries to agree to do that is virtually impossible.

You're making the case there for strengthening

and dealing with Europe's problems.

Susan, you say you think logic will win at the end of the day.

But if UKIP wins Eastleigh tomorrow, most predict it won't happen

but some predict it will, what would that say about our politics?

It's only one by-election and of course it sends a message,

but it's what happens in the General Election that counts the most.

Thank you to you all. That's it for another week.

We'll be back at the same time next week.

Meanwhile, you can hear more from me and another panel of guests

on "O'r Bae" on Radio Cymru on Friday at 2.00pm.

I hope I'll have your company then. But for now, goodbye.