26/06/2013 CF99

Good evening and welcome to CF99

live from the National Assembly in Cardiff Bay. On tonight's programme:

The Education Minister leaves the Cabinet.

Where does that leave the First Minister?

This is a shock to the political world in Wales.

It makes things interesting which I think is a good thing.

In Westminster, the Chancellor sharpens his axe.

How will this affect Wales?

Joining me this evening is the political commentator, Rod Richards.

Jeremy Miles from the Labour Party,

the Plaid Cymru Assembly Member for Mid and West Wales, Simon Thomas

and in our Aberystwyth studio is Dr Elin Royles

from the Department of Welsh Politics at the university.

Welcome to you all.

Has there ever been a week like this one in the Assembly's history?

It isn't likely that Carwyn Jones got up on Monday morning

expecting his Education Minister to resign, nor that Plaid Cymru

and the Liberal Democrats would start to cooperate officially.

And we're only on Wednesday!

Tomos Livingstone looks at the new landscape in Cardiff Bay.

The depths have been very quiet in Cardiff Bay for a while.

Carwyn Jones managed to sail quietly along without a majority.

The opposition parties found it hard to work together

and nothing could shake the Labour ship.

That has changed overnight in the most dramatic way.

The Education Minister,

one of the most prominent members of the Cabinet, has resigned.

Leighton Andrews had defended a school

that was under threat in his constituency.

That was contrary to his own policy of urging empty schools to close.

How did Leighton Andrews find himself in such a situation?

Will there by far reaching changes now?

Politics in the Bay has been shaken.

Leighton Andrews' problem was sitting on both sides of the fence

at the same time.

That follows his protests against the government's plans for health.

He will be a huge loss to Carwyn.

The big threat for Carwyn Jones is that a very experienced

politician is now on the backbenches.

What will Leighton Andrews get up to there? Mischief, probably.

As things move this afternoon, there was no sign of Leighton Andrews.

Without a named successor

there was no spare seat for him to sit in the chamber.

But within the following hours, it was announced

that Huw Lewis would be the new Education Minister.

Jeff Cuthbert will take his place.

The first jobs for Ken Skates and Vaughan Gething as deputy ministers.

Nobody was willing to comment this afternoon as we waited

for the announcement of the new Education Minister.

It seems that Leighton Andrews' resignation had come as a shock

to the Labour group who met in Cardiff Bay on Tuesday morning

without any sign of drama or resignations to come.

This wasn't the only shock this week to Welsh politics.

Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats have got closer.

The two parties will now be cooperating

when Carwyn Jones calls for backing for his budget in the autumn.

It makes sense for Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems to work together.

As we work together, we are in a strong position

and can get the best deal for the Welsh people.

The Government doesn't have a majority so it makes sense

to us to work together on matters that we agree on.

But is that enough to scare Carwyn Jones?

After all, the agreement doesn't include the Bay's

main opposition party - the Conservatives.

Without the blue element, there will not be a rainbow government

to replace the Labour administration.

But Leighton Andrews's resignation is on a different scale.

How comfortable will the First Minister be

with such a controversial and ambitious figure on the backbenches?

He has got a problem.

Leighton Andrews is a difficult minister to follow.

He had a clear vision.

I think everyone of us thought he had a wide range of understanding

in education.

We didn't agree with everything he did but he was ready to work hard.

These are big shoes to fill.

The parliamentary balance has shifted as well.

Ieuan Wyn Jones is standing down

and there will be a by-election on Anglesey.

That will give the Labour Party a majority of one,

temporarily at least.

It will be fiery campaign and a test for the Labour Government

as well as Plaid Cymru.

Usually, this is quite a quiet period.

There isn't much legislating.

I think the Government has been very quiet.

This is a shock for the political world in Wales.

Things will get interesting, and I think that is a good thing.

There is a difference of opinion about the significance of this week.

Will it really be a political whisper or an earthquake?

One thing is certain.

The last seven days have been reminded to Carwyn Jones

that his grasp on power in the Bay could slip.

Tomos Livingstone there.

Elin Royles, I'm not sure if it's possible

to have an August storm in June,

but was this just summer madness

or has the Assembly reached a turning point?

We have been in a similar situation before with a minority

Labour government and having to deal with those circumstances.

Perhaps, what we are seeing is maturity developing

and that the opposition parties can cooperate.

This is the type of politics we expect in coalition systems.

The problem is that the electoral system

we have in Wales gives the Labour Party a majority,

so we haven't seen this kind of dynamic which is healthy

to Welsh politics, before in the past.

But isn't it odd that it has taken so long,

we will come to Leighton Andrews in a moment,

for Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats

to realise they have much more power by working together.

What Carwyn Jones did with his budget every year was played one

-party against the other.

-We have many factors here.

Carwyn Jones's power and influence as First Minister and his role

and his strength in the Labour Party is a factor.

I'm sitting in Ceredigion, we know that the relationship

between the Lib Dems and Plaid isn't good at all in seats like this.

At the same time the political dynamic,

the One Wales coalition is coming to an end.

Plaid Cymru is adapting to be an opposition party.

We also have the Liberal Democrats in power in Westminster

and yet not in Wales.

It takes time.

The electoral system here doesn't allow the parties to think

dynamically in terms of coalitions like this.

It takes time to get used to it and it is nice to see that happening.

Jeremy, Peter Hain described Leighton Andrews' resignation

as "catastrophic" for the Welsh Labour Party.

Do you agree?

He was a very effective minister

and sincere in his ambition for education.

He worked very hard and he had vision.

That is a huge loss to the Cabinet.

A catastrophe?

No, not a catastrophe.

It's something to admire that someone clashed with

Cabinet obligations and working for his constituency.

There's something to admire that he prioritised his constituents.

But, Jeremy, there are only 60 members here,

30 are Labour.

It's obvious that Carwyn Jones, by filling the posts today,

has had to turn to the same people, the same faces.

Can he afford to let talent like that to go?

-We've had new faces coming into the government.

-As deputy ministers.

Yes, we have new faces in the government as a result.

What's important now is not the personalities

but that the agenda continues.

We are not talking about personalities but about abilities.

-It's all about abilities.

-They are very able.

He was very capable

but there's a knowledgeable minister replacing him.

As I say, the important thing, in my opinion,

is that these ministers bring the agenda forward

and focus on standards and evaluations and things like that.

Simon, you were shadowing Leighton Andrews.

What do you think of the new minister?

I think that, I don't think there are many similarities

between Leighton Andrews and the new minister, to be honest.

They are two very different people and they have very different skills.

And I don't think, unless there is a substantial change,

I can't see Huw Lewis carrying out the work

in the dynamic way that Leighton did.

I am looking forward to shadowing him, hopefully,

because I think the field of education

is so important to the economic success of Wales

and we really need to raise standards in Wales as well.

I was a supporter of most of the things,

not everything, but most of the things that Leighton did.

I did disagree at times with the method at which he went

about it but not the intention. I agreed with the intention.

Where does his departure leaves those plans?

We know the allegations against some Assembly education ministers

in the past, that they were tied to the education establishment

and Leighton Andrews was willing to challenge that establishment.

Are you confident that Huw Lewis will do the same?

He doesn't have a track record of doing so, it has to be said.

Huw Lewis' track record is like a fight with a blancmange.

It is very hard to get hold of and it's hard to see what he is doing.

He likes to set up processes whereas Leighton

was very clear that it wasn't the processes that mattered

but the result and to be honest,

he has gone too soon for us to know

whether he would have had successful results.

Hopefully, we will find out soon.

There is room for concern that someone like Huw Lewis,

with his different way of working,

is going to find himself in a thicket

rather than follow the clear vision that Leighton had.

We didn't always agree on the path he took

but he had a clear vision of where he was going.

I haven't seen any content like that, so far, to Huw Lewis.

Or, to be honest, to many others in the Cabinet.

So I don't know what Carwyn Jones' choice was.

Rod. Has this departure wounded Carwyn Jones?

Well, Leighton Andrews was impatient

and I felt as though he was a bit lost, to be honest.

He believed in structure and that kind of thing rather than results.

You were saying that he wasn't tied to unions

but the unions were putting pressure on him.

He believed in local education authorities and so on.

With Huw Lewis, he is more from that perspective that Leighton Andrews.

Huw Lewis is old Labour reconstructed.

I feel as though he might work better alongside the unions

and the local education authorities.

All I can say is that I wish him well

because he faces a very difficult challenge.

We need to cooperate with the unions

and education establishment in order to succeed.

-But you need to challenge them at times as well.

-Pardon?

-Sometimes it is necessary to challenge them as well.

-Of course.

You need to set an agenda for the purpose of raising standards

and that's the most important thing. More important than anything else.

But in order to succeed, you need to work together with people.

The biggest problem for education in Wales are these education unions.

They are impeding education in Wales from taking steps forward,

as they are now doing in England.

More broadly, Rod, looking at the Cabinet now with Jeff Cuthbert,

Huw Lewis, you know,

the political career life span in this place

is beginning to resemble that of Eastern Europe

before the fall of the Berlin Wall!

There are ministers that have been here since the very beginning.

-Is that healthy?

-No, it isn't.

Edwina Hart and Jane Hutt and Carwyn Jones himself have been there

since 1999 and this is a problem with all four parties, to be honest.

They are just not attracting the type of young talent

that is needed in government

and they are all as guilty as each other.

Elin, is there a problem? Is there a dearth of talent in this place

as we see ministers go on in the same job for years.

You see them come and go in Westminster all the time.

I think part of the latest factor, if you like,

is that the 2007 election happened before...

Sorry, the 2011 election took place before the referendum.

If we'd had the referendum and then the electoral process

a year or two later, perhaps we would have seen other candidates,

a wider variety of candidates putting themselves forward.

I think, looking forward to the next Assembly election,

it will be very interesting to see

who the new candidates are coming forward.

We always hear murmurs amongst the parties that we would see

a new phase of politicians now the Assembly has legislative powers.

But as the Labour Party has been the main party in power

since the start,

it is not surprising that we have the same kind of

politicians in the prominent positions.

There are only so many politicians in Cardiff Bay

and the parties only have a certain amount of politicians to pick from.

Is the a feeling in all the parties,

Simon, Ieuan Wyn Jones talked about the need for new blood.

The Assembly has a five-year term.

Is there a feeling that when the next assembly comes, that it is time

not to throw out every member, of course,

but that we should see a substantial amount of new faces?

I think we will see new faces.

We will see new faces as a result of the by-election

and Ieuan Wyn Jones' decision to step down as well.

I would like to say that there have been some BBC faces

that have been around for a very long time as well, Vaughan.

It happens in every institution. And especially having 60 members.

And I think this is a small number

and a turnover of 60 members will mean a gradual change every time.

We had more of a turnover last time, to be honest.

I think there are a number of new people.

We have two new faces in the Cabinet.

They are not representing my area

but we should celebrate the fact we have new faces going in

as junior members of the Cabinet

at that level so there is progress here.

It would be great to attract new faces to the Assembly

and new blood but you can't do that without a political revolution.

And that would mean Labour losing power.

There is another problem.

The Chamber at the Assembly

is not a platform for members

to address the electorate and the general public.

Which is another question but we have to move on.

By the way, I loved that shot of Vaughan Gething

running through the chamber!

It's good to see that one of them can run!

There has been plenty going on in Westminster today as well.

The Chancellor outlined his spending plans

for the years 2015 to 2016

and the message from George Osborne

was that there was more pain on the way.

Elliw Gwawr was there

and she sums up the content of the Spending Review for CF99.

The lack of growth in the economy has forced the Chancellor

to continue making cutbacks until even after the next general election

and that means cuts totalling £11.5 billion in 2015 to 2016.

For most departments, that will mean cuts of between 5% and 10%

but the Welsh Government budget will only be reduced by 2%

because health and education spending is ring-fenced in England.

According to the Welsh government, this is still quite a knock

and they say they will suffer

as a result of the Chancellor's decisions.

While recovery from such a deep recession

can never be straightforward,

Britain is moving out of intensive care

and from rescue to recovery.

If you were hoping to hear about investment in the M4,

you will have to wait a bit longer

until the Government decision on the Silk Commission.

But there was good news for S4C.

Despite the concerns, its budget is safe for another year.

So with the main parties here all in agreement

that cuts would have to go way beyond the next general election,

that campaign, which is already underway,

will focus on what to cut and when.

Jeremy, if I may start with you,

Labour have changed their tune recently.

I was a bit confused that it was as if Ed Balls was saying,

"He is cutting too far and too fast but we are going to cut just as hard.

The Labour Party message is not clear at the moment.

It certainly differs to the message we get from Carwyn Jones.

The message from Ed Balls

was that we needed to look at things as they are now.

When we get to government,

we need to deal with the economy in real-time.

You can never promise to reverse every cut that the Conservatives

and the Lib Dems make now.

The reason we are in the situation we are in

is that the Tories have failed on the economy.

The anticipated growth was 6% in the last three years

and the economy has flatlined.

They said that the budget would be better by 2015 and it won't be.

That is true but the question I ask is this,

Carwyn Jones has been elected here

on the basis that he will stand up for Wales, to coin a phrase.

He says that we are not getting enough money here to run Wales

and now Labour is saying it will do just the same.

What will the Labour message be in the next Assembly election?

Carwyn Jones is correct in saying that the cuts aren't sufficient

for the Welsh government to do what it wants to in Wales

and that is perfectly true.

On a United Kingdom level,

Ed Miliband says that we need to support our economic development.

We cannot support anything that simply isn't certain at the moment.

When the time comes, we will have to look at the economy as it is.

I accept that we get a different message in Wales

but the situation is different here.

We are talking about massive budget cuts, to be honest,

in the government budget.

Rod Richards, is Labour going to be able to sustain this dual message?

It is hard for them, to be honest.

There is a lack of clarity here. That is their problem.

I watched the whole thing this afternoon

and I still wasn't clear on what Ed Balls was trying to say.

I understand the point that we have to wait

and see what the situation is

but if you say we have to wait and see what the situation is,

how can you say, "But we are going to continue with the Tory cuts

"into the first year of the next Assembly"?

What we are saying is we are looking at 2015 now.

At this point in time we can't promise to undo those cuts.

That is the situation and that is the statement we have made.

The reason that cut is being made is that the investments...

But it depends who you are talking to.

Ed Balls says one thing, Ed Miliband says another.

Ed Balls' number two, I can't remember his name,

I was watching him on Sky earlier

and the whole thing just isn't clear.

The message is clear.

We are saying that we can't promise to reverse every cut

and that is the message.

Simon, Plaid Cymru is very fortunate

when it comes to Westminster elections

because you can't form a government.

Isn't Labour just being honest here by saying, look.

"There are many things that we hate.

"We hate this bedroom tax and so on but the decisions have been made

"and it's difficult to reverse them in the short time."

Aren't they just being honest?

No. I'm no more confused than ever

on the direction of the Labour Party.

They have been leading campaigns locally and in here,

using the chamber as a national platform,

leading campaigns against these cuts,

especially the bedroom tax and so on.

In the past fortnight we've had a change of heart

from Ed Balls and Ed Miliband.

For all purposes,

they are saying that they accept the Tory spending plans

for the first year they are hoping to be in power in Westminster.

So there is nothing to suggest

we'll see a change in this situation.

George Osborne, I think, has set them...

I think George Osborne has put them in this position.

The same thing happened with Tony Blair in 1997, if I may say so.

Exactly the same thing.

We must responsible with the national budget

and it's easy for Plaid Cymru to say that.

It's not Plaid Cymru saying that, it is your party in the Assembly!

But Plaid Cymru is now supporting the Lib Dems.

Let us go over to Aberystwyth, friends.

Elin has been waiting patiently.

The difference between the Labour message here

and the Labour message in Westminster is quite pronounced by now, isn't it?

Yes but one has been in a position to prepare for a general election

and accept the first beating,

as we have just seen in the studio, in terms of discussions.

They are preparing for a general election

and placing the Labour Party in another position

and we have got devolution here so we don't expect

and we cannot expect a unified voice

from parties on different levels of government.

They are going to make different decisions,

especially when we are talking about a budget for the years 2015 to 2016.

But what strikes me is isn't Carwyn Jones doing to Ed Miliband

exactly what Leighton Andrews did to Carwyn Jones?

He's saying one thing here in Wales

while the leader says something else in Westminster?

Yes but at the end of the day

I would argue that they are helping each other.

Carwyn Jones is the only Labour Party leader in power

across the whole of the UK.

He has plenty of clout and he has the right to say what he wants.

He can say what the Labour Party would like to say but can't,

especially as they are trying to make an effort

to create more wriggle room

around their ability to control the economy.

I don't think it's unexpected,

I don't think it creates problems for the Labour Party centrally.

That is I'm sure that there is support for them

through the fact he's having his say.

The clear, red water, Simon. We have heard about this before.

That is rhetoric and rhetoric is the current standpoint.

I don't agree with Elin wholeheartedly because Plaid Cymru

has the same point of view in Westminster and the Assembly.

Maybe it is possible for us to do

but what's important now is if Labour Party is serious

about what they say, and I agree with this statement,

the current policy hasn't led to economic growth

and the kind of growth that was anticipated

so where is the growth policy

that the Labour Party wants to replace it with, then?

Accepting Government plans and making these changes

that impact the most vulnerable people in society isn't good enough.

We have to leave it there. I apologise, Jeremy.

Plenty to discuss but no more time, unfortunately.

That's all for tonight. Join us next week but for now, good night.

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