25/05/2012 Daily Politics


25/05/2012

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Good afternoon and welcome to Daily Politics. The last one for a couple

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of weeks as the Commons heads off for, yes, yet another holiday. Fill

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your boots while you can, because today we are looking at Scotland,

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where a campaign for yes to independence kicked off this

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morning. It is promising not just politicians, but celebrities. Yes,

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celebrities. Who do they think they are, This Week?

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To Jeremy Hunt's conduct during the BSkyB bid is still under scrutiny.

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We have the latest from the Leveson Inquiry.

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Nick Clegg insists that people premiums and only his intervention

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will revolutionise social mobility in this country. -- early years

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intervention. Is he right? The Government is thinking again

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about slapping VAT on static caravans. We think about nothing

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else. We will bring you news of a quiet revolution in Yorkshire.

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All that in the next hour. Public service television at its finest.

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With no supplement on your licence fee! With us for the duration, he

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is late, probably with a hangover, the founder of the West London Free

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School, I can see him in the studio, so bring him in, sit him down and

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sat him about for being so late. Why are you so late? Traffic.

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Jubilee and Olympic preparations. The should have made allowance for

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that. Go to the back. The Daily Telegraph's very own Mary Riddell

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as well, perfectly on time, came by tube. No problem with her. Thank

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you. Let's start with the Leveson Inquiry into the standards and

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ethics of Her Majesty's Press. No wonder it is going on for so long!

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This morning's papers make uncomfortable reading for Jeremy

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Hunt. He argued that BSkyB should take full -- Rupert Murdoch should

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take full control of BSkyB. But speaking on ITV, yes, sometimes you

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get politics on ITV, he continued to be backed by David Cameron.

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was not what he has said in the past but how he was going to do the

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job. If we look at how we did the job, he looked for independent

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advice, he took it and did it in a thoroughly proper way. This is like

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a love letter coming to you from Jeremy Hunt about the Murdochs. The

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point is that he was getting his quasi-judicial role. He was going

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to decide. How could he be impartial when you knew that he was

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such a fan? He did act impartially because he took independent advice

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at every stage and he acted impartially. I had not wanted to

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give anybody the job. I had wanted the existing Business Secretary,

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Vince Cable, to do the job. That was the Prime Minister on ITV

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earlier this morning. How does it work out that you fire Vince Cable

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from this process because he is biased against Rupert Murdoch, and

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you hired Mr Hunt, biased in favour of Rupert Murdoch? Well, that is

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the million dollar question, isn't it? That is what the Prime Minister

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has to answer. I think already the focus has moved slightly away from

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Jeremy Hunt. It is fascinating, this email traffic, and the fact

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that they were texting each other dozens of times a day. Not Jeremy

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Hunt personally second but his special adviser and Fred Michel,

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Murdoch's man. The real question for Cameron is how can you possibly

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appoint somebody when it is absolutely clear from the memo that

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was revealed yesterday, that he was not only supportive of Rupert

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Murdoch and his bid, but absolutely Maasai and making his support.

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There was no doubt whatsoever. Having fired Vince Cable for being

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somewhat opinionated in the opposite direction, also, as far as

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I understand it, Gus O'Donnell, who cleared Jeremy Hunt to take

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charge... The Cabinet Secretary? Indeed. He has no knowledge of this

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emerge. There are real questions of justice there. In the Prime

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Minister's defence, who was he going to take the decision to? It

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was the offers that Jeremy Hunt held which made in the appropriate

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figure. Who else could it have been? Ken Clarke? It is not the

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Pope, it is not the Queen. It is not the majesty of the offers that

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is important. Why not the Pope? at the office. It is the individual

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holding the post that has to decide. It is clear that he was not

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impartial in this quasar judicial role. I agree that it was a problem

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for Cameron because he had to give the job to somebody. But to go

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right ahead with Jeremy Hunt, I think, well, as it is turning out...

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I don't think Jeremy Hunt has necessarily acted in appropriately.

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He was within his rights to express an opinion when it was not his task

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to make a decision. He had been advised by officials not to. So he

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was sailing close to the wind. kind of knew what Vince Cable

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thought beforehand. And Jeremy Hunt. And most people have an opinion on

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that. The difficulty that the Government faced was that they have

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to task a senior politician with making this decision. They could

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not give it to an official. So who do you task with it? The obvious

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person is the Secretary of State for business, and if he rules

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himself out by saying something stupid to a journalist, the most

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obvious person is the Secretary of State for the Department for Media

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and Sport. In 2003, a lot of things that Rupert Murdoch feared it did

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not appear in that Act. And now the same thing is happening. They would

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have got their way on BSkyB if the Milly Dowler story had not come out

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at the last minute. I suspect that governments will be supping with a

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long spoon when it comes to Murdoch land. I would have thought so. I

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completely agree with you. Everybody got too close, well, most

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people got too close to Murdoch. This was the atomic bomb of media

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ownership as far as the take-over was concerned. It was the biggest

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in British history. The entire media industry was very worried

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about it, simply because it appeared to ride roughshod. We need

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to move on, but young Adam Smith. Not the Economist from Scotland,

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because he died a while ago. This young chap, he resigned. When you

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listen to his testimony, yesterday afternoon and this morning to

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lovers and, he is playing it so straight. It begs the question why

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he resigned if everything he said is true. -- this morning to the

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Leveson Inquiry. You get the impression that he was forced to

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fall on his sword and savers of's political career. -- saved his

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boss's political career. Now it is time for the daily quiz and I know

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you love it. Our question is this. Toby Young, the late Toby Young,

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recently challenged a leading politician to a drinking contest,

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because he has got nothing else to do. And he lost! The journalist

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losing to a politician! He was the politician? William Hague, John

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Prescott, Nigel Farage, or toughest of the lot, Louise Mensch. My money

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is on her! At the end of the show, he will fess up and tell us what a

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big girl's blouse he really was. Earlier in the week, the Government

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was forced to publish the Beecroft Report, which proposed

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controversial changes to our employment laws, including allowing

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what is called no fault dismissal as for underperforming workers.

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Basically, if you don't like them, you can get rid of them. A group of

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MPs called the Free Enterprise Group, the clue is in the name, are

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publishing their own plan to reform Britain's labour markets. They see

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this as essential to withstand the economic shock that Greece crashing

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out of the euro will inevitably cause. They are calling it Plan E

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for Euro-X it. Probably Plan E for emergency would make more sense. --

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the euro exit. The plan is for people earning under �10,000 a year

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would be tax-exempt. They think the minimum wage should be frozen for

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three years. But they say that workers would receive a rise in

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real incomes because they would not have to pay it national insurance.

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Business would be encouraged to take on workers, and they would

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like to see the fear factor removed from hiring people. Not the fear

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factor from getting fired! And most controversially, companies with

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fewer than 10 workers would be exempt from unfair dismissal laws.

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At least for new employees. And they want to pat the kind of

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payouts that you can get for unfair dismissal or discrimination at work

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at around �50,000. -- cap the payouts. You get around �50,000 at

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the moment, but if it is discrimination for race and gender

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and things like that it can be much more, but that is unusual. They

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discuss this with MP George Eustice, one of the co-authors of the report.

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And from the TUC, head of a quality and Employment Rights, Sarah Veale.

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Lay out your stall. Why do you think this needs to be done?

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reality is, if you look at the eurozone at the moment, countries

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in the eurozone so that they want to stay in the eurozone, but they

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are not prepared to do what is required. Germany do not want to

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write the big cheques that are required. Let's not go through the

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eurozone. Let us seen Greece comes out. Why would this make a

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difference to our ability to survive it? -- let's assume that

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Greece come out. It will have an impact on our exports and on the

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Government's strategy. You have to redouble your efforts to get growth

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going in our economy. The real reason this economy is not growing,

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I suggest, is not the lack of flexibility in the labour markets.

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There may or may not be. But by international standards we are

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pretty flexible. The reality is that there is no demand in the

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economy and this would not create demand. Let him answer. If you look

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at the last decade, it Government spending has gone up from 40% to

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50% of GDP. The economic freedom indexes that are done

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internationally, we have slipped down to 81, so a huge amount could

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be done here. You cannot just borrow money to stimulate growth,

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have to create the conditions for growth to happen. I think we should

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purge these fair weather policies that have grown up over the last 10

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years. There is a problem with the European labour market, including

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Britain, and it is a long-term one and we have seen it over 30 years.

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The more it has been regulated with rights and controls and so on, and

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the more taxes that have been levied on it to pay for social

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charges and the rest, the more long-term unemployment we have

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created and the more youth unemployment. I don't think there

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is any evidence that there is a causal link between regulation and

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the success or otherwise of an economy. So why does the eurozone

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have permanently high unemployment? All sorts of reasons that are not

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related to the Beecroft Report. That is about protection for

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employees. I am not talking about that. I am talking about over 30

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years the European governments increasingly regulating the labour

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markets and taxing it, and social charges in France are sometimes 60

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or 70% of wages. You should not be surprised if people do not want to

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Emperor people. In France or in the UK? There is not a particular

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problem in France that does not occur in other countries. Each

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country has separate labour laws, which impinge on employment rates

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or not. In the UK there has been extraordinary yo-yo ring in terms

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of up from the floor between governments of different political

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persuasions. But there is no evidence to suggest a causal link

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between employment regulation and demand of unemployment. There is

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just their evidence. -- and the amount of unemployment. In Germany,

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the consequence was that unemployment overall came down. In

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particular, they are the only European country with no youth

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unemployment problem. They have a very different economy. The thing I

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would say about the labour relations in Germany, they have

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something called co-determination. Employers determine working

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conditions, broadly. Whatever they do on dismissal law is small. The

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Beecroft Report proposal to do miss people at whim, -- to dismiss

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people and when, is appalling. you in favour of that? I am in

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favour of rules against discrimination but the concept of

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unfair dismissal is unique to Britain. It is a problem and

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employers do raise this as an issue if you talk to them. They have to

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go to tribunals. What you really need is a grown-up conversation. If

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a member of staff is falling behind... Are but it could be an

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unequal conversation between the boss and the worker. There are sham

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consultations for redundancy at the moment. They are not sham. They are

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not. They are quite often sham. They encourage the conversations

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that you are advocating. I don't agree. If you talk to employers,

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they always cite this as an obstacle. Lots of them did,

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actually. Lots of employers are perfectly happy with the employment

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relations system. There are some highly successful employers in the

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UK perfectly happy with a lightly You are claiming that this

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regulation costs 100 billion a year. You made that up? I can't remember

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where that figure came from. It is a big figure. It is a big figure,

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but the burden of regulation is a huge problem. You can't borrow your

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way out of beds. A business department did a survey of

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businesses, and employment regulation came number six, below a

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range of other issues. The working time directive alone cost us 3

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billion a year. Only 97 billion to go! There are a lot more than 97

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regulations. Commonsense dictates that if you remove some of the

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obstacles that face employers, they are more likely to take on new

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employees. That addresses your point about how to create demand in

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the economy. It reduces the welfare bill and increases the amount of

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people able to spend money. would not take people on if there

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was not demand in the first place. If demand is not increasing, which

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isn't, why hire anybody other than as a replacement? Plenty of

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employers say they would be willing to take people on if there was less

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regulation of the labour market. Unemployment is falling in America

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because their labour market is much less regulated. In George's report,

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in one respect, I agree with him. If Greece does leave the euro, and

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it is still an if, the effects on Britain will be much more severe

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than anyone has realised. But as to what you do to make this country's

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economy stronger, it comes back to what Andrew was talking about,

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which was demand and supply. There is little evidence that by getting

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tougher on workers and cutting red tape, it will make much difference.

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We have two models. One is some of the things you are talking about,

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George, and the Beecroft report. The other report this week from the

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IMF, which goes much more towards demand, would recommend more

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quantitative easing and some tax cuts, but boosting demand at. It is

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not that the whole of the Beecroft report is disreputable. I agree

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that industrial tribunals need looking at. But the line that Sarah

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talked about, which was redacted from the final version, the idea

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that a few people will lose their jobs because their employers don't

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like them, but that is a price worth paying, er that speaks of a

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callousness that goes beyond economics.

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The report also talks about setting up infrastructure laws. There is

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evidence that if you invest... one has any idea what

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infrastructure bombs means. If the euro does break up, you will have a

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flight of the capital from the Eurozone to the UK. If you could

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capture that in a special -- sensible way, you could put it into

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infrastructure. * An back from the substance and tummy as and analyst,

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is any of this going to happen? are making a clear argument that it

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should. But how will it happen? Government has changed the

:19:14.:19:17.

timescale through which people can take something to an industrial

:19:17.:19:22.

tribunal. But if you are an employer and you can't make up your

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mind after two years whether something is any good -- whether a

:19:25.:19:31.

person is any good, maybe you shouldn't be an employer. But what

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if somebody does well in one job but that is no -- Ben is moved to

:19:35.:19:39.

another job, and they fail in that job? There are systems to deal with

:19:39.:19:46.

that. One of the most compelling arguments For sacking people on

:19:46.:19:50.

site is that if the Lib Dems throw any more spanners in the works when

:19:50.:19:53.

it comes to these good measures, Cameron could say OK, Vince Cable,

:19:53.:20:03.

on your bike. And it is really going to happen(!). Some report in

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the Times today that if Greece does exit the euro, a lot of Tory

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backbenchers will want and in or out referendum. Is that true?

:20:11.:20:18.

Greece comes out of the euro, you will probably need a new treaty.

:20:18.:20:23.

And would that trigger a referendum in the UK? My view is that we

:20:23.:20:26.

should use our time in government to negotiate a new deal with the

:20:26.:20:30.

European Union. Things are in such a state of flux that there might be

:20:30.:20:34.

appetite for a sensible discussion about what the EU should look like,

:20:34.:20:38.

and then you renegotiate and put that to the British people. Good

:20:38.:20:43.

luck getting that past Nick Clegg. What do you make of Nigel Farage's

:20:43.:20:47.

offer that when you have got a strong Euro-sceptic and a UKIP

:20:47.:20:51.

candidate, he should run as a single candidate? They always had

:20:51.:20:56.

this sort of talk when elections come. I was a UKIP candidate, and I

:20:56.:21:00.

left because I want to get away from that. That is not what I

:21:00.:21:08.

believe we should be doing. People are saying UKIP are strong. That is

:21:08.:21:12.

why the Conservative Party has to articulate a clear vision about the

:21:12.:21:16.

future of the European Union. it is not doing that? It is

:21:16.:21:22.

starting to do that. Where is the evidence? The EU bill. We now have

:21:22.:21:25.

a bill in the UK which would require a referendum if anything

:21:25.:21:30.

changed. That is process, not substance. The David Cameron vetoed

:21:30.:21:36.

the EU treaty. We are never sure that he did. He vetoed that treaty.

:21:36.:21:41.

The treaty went ahead. As an inter- governmental treaty between those

:21:42.:21:46.

in the Eurozone. David Cameron is between a rock and a hard place. He

:21:46.:21:49.

is told he is lecturing when he tells them what they need to do,

:21:49.:21:54.

and when he does not tell them, he is told he is aloof. We have to

:21:54.:21:57.

move on. Now, a week from now the country

:21:57.:22:01.

will be gearing up for a weekend of celebrations to mark the Queen's

:22:01.:22:06.

Diamond Jubilee. Sadly, the powers that be reckon you would rather

:22:06.:22:10.

watch that than another episode of the Daily Politics, so we will not

:22:10.:22:13.

be on. No tears. But never one to miss a bandwagon, Adam has been

:22:13.:22:19.

holding his own street party seven days early.

:22:19.:22:22.

Welcome to a bargain-basement Daily Politics Jubilee street party. If

:22:22.:22:26.

we were having one, this would be a good spot, because on the Sunday of

:22:26.:22:29.

the Jubilee weekend, there will be a massive flotilla on the river and

:22:29.:22:34.

then her Majesty will come for lunch in Westminster on Tuesday. We

:22:34.:22:37.

have our guess from the all-party parliamentary group on the Jubilee,

:22:37.:22:42.

and Adrian Evans, the pageant master for the Jubilee pageant.

:22:42.:22:47.

Adrian, will be pageant be as good as this? Who have fully a bit

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better and louder. It should be amazing. It should be one of those

:22:53.:22:56.

events we will look back on in history and think it was an

:22:56.:23:03.

extraordinary thing to have achieved. How big is this flotilla

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going to be? There will be 1000 boats. They will pass from Putney

:23:13.:23:16.

all the way through to the Thames barrier in the east. Give us an

:23:17.:23:21.

idea of how big a logistical challenge it is? It has been

:23:21.:23:24.

extraordinary. I have worked on this for two and a half years.

:23:24.:23:29.

Early on, I discovered that the river goes up and down by seven

:23:29.:23:33.

metres twice a day. It shifts backwards and forwards at a rapid

:23:33.:23:37.

rate. The bridges are a different shape from one to another. Getting

:23:37.:23:41.

all those boats to do what they are supposed to do has been a

:23:41.:23:45.

logistical nightmare. We have not done something like that for a

:23:45.:23:49.

while, but it has been a regular feature throughout history.

:23:49.:23:53.

have to look back 150 years ago for the lord mayor's show, which was

:23:53.:23:57.

played out on the Thames every year in November. But the great royal

:23:57.:24:01.

pageants go back a few hundred years. That was when the Thames

:24:01.:24:06.

itself was the grand boulevard, the place that if you want to make a

:24:06.:24:12.

great impression, that was the place to do it. What is the All

:24:13.:24:18.

Party Parliamentary Group doing? The exciting thing we did was, we

:24:18.:24:21.

built a stained-glass window which will go up in Westminster Hall

:24:21.:24:26.

opposite her Majesty's father's stained glass window, which has her

:24:26.:24:30.

coat-of-arms and commemorates the Diamond Jubilee. I am excited to be

:24:30.:24:35.

here and shake the hand of the man in charge of this pageant. It will

:24:35.:24:41.

be wonderful, because we do these things better than any country.

:24:41.:24:45.

Around the world, countries pay billions to create that sort of

:24:45.:24:53.

iconic moment. We do it in an understated and elegant way. On the

:24:53.:24:59.

third assumed -- 3rd June, we will deliver that. Will there be Jubilee

:24:59.:25:05.

fever then, because the MPs will be on holiday? They will be in recess.

:25:05.:25:13.

They are working hard. Of course! will be here. Others like my

:25:13.:25:18.

children, who could not get tickets, will be somewhere along the river,

:25:18.:25:26.

watching this fantastic pageant, with the royal family on the boats

:25:26.:25:31.

themselves. There will be street parties all over every town and

:25:31.:25:36.

village. It will be a wonderful celebration. The terrace over there

:25:36.:25:40.

must be a good spot to watch it from. In it will be an

:25:40.:25:45.

extraordinary place to see it. The boats are coming from all over the

:25:45.:25:53.

UK. It really is a People's pageant. It is an accumulation of enthusiasm,

:25:53.:25:57.

passion and interest on the water. I should say some campaigners

:25:58.:26:01.

against the monarchy will be holding some protests during the

:26:01.:26:07.

weekend, but I don't think their sandwiches will be as good.

:26:07.:26:12.

What will you be doing for the Jubilee? I think I will have a hard

:26:12.:26:15.

job persuading my children to turn out for the Diamond Jubilee,

:26:15.:26:19.

because we had a bad experience in Dartmouth on Sunday at the Olympic

:26:19.:26:24.

torch relay. My seven-year-old son was really excited about it. It was

:26:24.:26:29.

just a parade of sponsors. There was one bus after another with

:26:29.:26:34.

Samsung, Lloyds TSB. They tried to get the crowd to chant Coca-Cola.

:26:34.:26:38.

The torch relay itself was an elderly blind Frenchman with two

:26:38.:26:44.

human crutches, crawling along at a snail's pace, almost an aftermath -

:26:44.:26:48.

- an afterthought to the main event, which was these buses throwing out

:26:48.:26:54.

plastic tat. Chariots of fire, it wasn't. But her Majesty will not be

:26:54.:26:58.

chanting Coca-Cola. She will go down the Thames on a barge. And I

:26:58.:27:02.

am sure it will be more impressive. By the time they get around to the

:27:02.:27:08.

proper ceremonial, whatever you think, the British do do that sort

:27:08.:27:12.

of thing fantastically well. This whole idea of monarchy and how

:27:12.:27:17.

people are going to celebrate it is interesting. I will not be out with

:27:17.:27:24.

the bunting, but if you think that in 1946, George VI, the Queen's

:27:24.:27:28.

father, apparently 3% thought he was doing a good job, the same as

:27:28.:27:34.

Joseph Stalin in 1946. Whereas now, the monarchy was popular in the

:27:34.:27:40.

'80s, but if you look at the Queen's approval rating, it is plus

:27:40.:27:47.

78, as opposed to David Cameron's at -12 and Ed Miliband on minus 11

:27:47.:27:50.

and Nick Clegg on minus 27, so she must be doing something right. It

:27:50.:27:56.

is not a good time to be a Republican. It is not. I am not a

:27:56.:28:01.

republican, I am a staunch monarchist, and I am sure the West

:28:01.:28:05.

London Free School will be doing a lot to celebrate.

:28:05.:28:08.

The Government is promising a decision later this summer whether

:28:08.:28:13.

it will go ahead and impose VAT on static caravans. George Osborne

:28:13.:28:18.

announced the measure in the Budget, but it has caused a near revolt in

:28:18.:28:22.

Yorkshire where, not all people know this, almost all Britain's

:28:22.:28:27.

static caravans are made. I knew it, because Alan Johnson told me. He is

:28:27.:28:35.

an MP from there. The timing of the government's VAT

:28:35.:28:39.

announcement could not have been worse for the owners of this

:28:39.:28:43.

leisure park in east Yorkshire. After weathering floods in a

:28:44.:28:48.

recession, they had just invested �5 million in new facilities,

:28:48.:28:54.

including an indoor pool, spa, Jim and golf simulator. But then came

:28:54.:29:01.

the news that all new holiday homes sold here will be hit by an average

:29:01.:29:07.

of �6,000 in VAT costs. Somebody from London goes out and buys a

:29:07.:29:13.

second home. They pay 1% stamp duty. Yet we are asking the hard-working

:29:13.:29:20.

couples to now find 20% extra for a holiday home. 30,000 now becomes

:29:20.:29:27.

36,000. We can't afford to absorb the VAT, so it has to go somewhere.

:29:27.:29:31.

The National Caravan Council estimates that the decision to add

:29:31.:29:35.

20% VAT on to the cost of static caravans will lead to more than

:29:36.:29:41.

4000 job losses at holiday parks across the country. More than 1400

:29:41.:29:47.

in manufacturing and 1500 at suppliers, adding up to more than

:29:47.:29:57.
:29:57.:29:57.

manufacturing workers in Beverly fear for their future. The company

:29:57.:30:01.

has ridden out the recession well, and for the Government to levy a

:30:01.:30:06.

20% increase on VAT, it is mind- blowing. The government are doing a

:30:06.:30:09.

campaign on the TV at the moment for people to holiday in Britain,

:30:09.:30:14.

so they should back the caravan industry. We are part of the

:30:14.:30:19.

tourism industry. Politician has from all sides have united against

:30:19.:30:24.

the so-called caravan Tax. A recent vote in the House of Commons saw

:30:24.:30:29.

the biggest Tory rebellion since student tuition fees, but is the

:30:29.:30:38.

Government in the mood to It is right that we tried to deal

:30:38.:30:42.

with static caravans fairly and consistently with other products,

:30:42.:30:45.

but we want to listen to the concerns about the impact, and we

:30:45.:30:48.

want to listen to exactly how this would work and what the borderline

:30:48.:30:53.

would be. They used to be a fantastic fishing industry in the

:30:53.:31:00.

UK. Especially in Hull. Government decisions have killed it. It feels

:31:00.:31:05.

like they are doing the same again with the caravan industry. I think

:31:05.:31:09.

in five years' time, we will look back and so that we had a five-

:31:09.:31:16.

month manufacturing industry. -- say that we had a thriving

:31:16.:31:20.

manufacturing industry. One decision will kill it off.

:31:20.:31:22.

Government insists that the proposals are fare, but thousands

:31:23.:31:28.

have signed the cross-party petition calling for them to think

:31:28.:31:34.

again. Within the last 24 hours, there has been a change in the mood

:31:34.:31:39.

music on all of this. Yesterday in the Commons, the business Minister

:31:39.:31:43.

Greg Barker suggested that it was quite possible that they would do

:31:43.:31:47.

some kind of U-turn after rule. You get the impression that this is one

:31:47.:31:51.

of the schemes that the Treasury has in its bottom drawer. They may

:31:51.:31:55.

have tried to slip it through when Labour was in power but they had

:31:55.:31:58.

better political and 10 I, and this time they did get it through.

:31:58.:32:04.

of the things that would never have got past Gordon Brown. -- better

:32:04.:32:11.

political antenna. There are difficulties in the North, at the

:32:11.:32:16.

moment, but it is also a presentational disaster. The pasty

:32:16.:32:20.

tax, the granny tax, all the rest of it. Some of these things have

:32:20.:32:24.

some merit, not all of them. You could certainly make a very good

:32:24.:32:30.

case for the granny tax. But they are sold as if George Osborne had

:32:30.:32:38.

taxed bald nurse or hypoallergenic dogs. -- text being bald. He could

:32:38.:32:44.

not have courted less popularity. Everybody loves caravans in Britain.

:32:44.:32:52.

As long as they are not in front of you on the road! Yes! On that

:32:52.:32:56.

excellent film, when you listen to these people in the North of

:32:56.:33:00.

England, they are making things, working hard, in employment, making

:33:00.:33:05.

things that people want to buy. And they find themselves on the wrong

:33:05.:33:10.

end of Government. Something has gone wrong. It is catastrophic. I

:33:10.:33:18.

blame the Lib Dems. We saw the Damian McBride block. -- blog. The

:33:18.:33:21.

Government produced his wish-list of various taxes that he and Gordon

:33:21.:33:26.

Brown used to batter way. But George Osborne announced quite late

:33:26.:33:31.

in the day that they wanted to cut the top rate of tax. So Danny

:33:31.:33:34.

Alexander and his team looked at what they could ask for in return.

:33:34.:33:38.

Funny you should ask, we have got this list. That is what the Lib

:33:38.:33:43.

Dems demanded as the price of the tax cut. You can tweet and let us

:33:43.:33:48.

know if you are to blame, Lib Dems. The battle for hearts and minds in

:33:48.:33:52.

Scotland gets under way today as those hoping for a yes vote in a

:33:52.:33:57.

referendum on Scottish independence launched their campaign. There has

:33:57.:34:02.

been a blizzard of rhetoric from both sides of the argument, but

:34:02.:34:05.

will any economic facts be introduced before Scottish people

:34:05.:34:10.

have to make up their minds, probably in the autumn of 2014? We

:34:10.:34:17.

said they did to his natural habitat to find out. -- we sent

:34:17.:34:21.

David. The Rob Roy, Scottish pub in the

:34:21.:34:24.

heart of London. The gaffer Jones added is the unofficial embassy and

:34:25.:34:30.

in a few years' time there could be a real one. -- do gaffer jokes that

:34:30.:34:36.

it is the unofficial embassy. Should Scotland be part of the

:34:36.:34:38.

United Kingdom? As a public service broadcaster, I would love to bring

:34:38.:34:42.

you the full economic facts and figures about what that would mean

:34:42.:34:46.

for the UK as a whole and for Scottish people. I would love to

:34:46.:34:51.

but I cannot. And more worryingly, neither can anybody else. It is not

:34:51.:34:54.

possible now to say whether in 10 years' time Scotland would be

:34:54.:34:59.

better off as part of the union of separately. Not definitely better

:34:59.:35:04.

of or worse-off. Incredibly uncertain. Not only that, but you

:35:04.:35:08.

try finding figured that both sides of the debate actually agree on. I

:35:08.:35:12.

have tried it and felt like I have had a night on the hard stuff. But

:35:12.:35:15.

there is a desire to give Scottish people something definitive to go

:35:15.:35:19.

on. Too much of the debate has been wrapped up in a certain and the

:35:19.:35:27.

process of the referendum. -- in assertions. Lots of people want to

:35:27.:35:32.

know what would actually happen. Here is the good news. The

:35:32.:35:34.

Institute of Fiscal Studies are keen to undertake research that

:35:34.:35:37.

they hope will provide some of the answers. The bad news is that even

:35:38.:35:41.

their figures will depend on what happens to the black stuff. Not

:35:41.:35:47.

that! The oil. If you look at the tax revenues including North Sea

:35:47.:35:50.

oil, then their fiscal position is not very different to the rest of

:35:50.:35:55.

the United Kingdom. If you ignore North Sea oil and then the Scottish

:35:55.:35:59.

situation is worse than the rest of the UK, then oil plays a crucial

:35:59.:36:04.

part in the figures. With oil, Scotland is at least as well off as

:36:04.:36:09.

the rest of the UK from a budgetary point of view. So whose oil is it

:36:09.:36:13.

Anyway? At the moment we don't even know that. And if it remains

:36:13.:36:18.

disputed, who decides? If Scotland and England are going to continue

:36:18.:36:22.

as autonomous countries, then they will be sovereigns, and you cannot

:36:22.:36:26.

force sovereigns to solve the dispute. But they are under

:36:26.:36:31.

obligation to resolve any disputes without the use of force. Hopefully

:36:31.:36:34.

they would submit their dispute to the arbitration tribunals. They

:36:34.:36:40.

would tackle the questions submitted to them. From state

:36:40.:36:48.

practice, that can take between two-and-a-half and 10 years.

:36:48.:36:51.

Internationally respected think- tank admit there are more questions

:36:51.:36:56.

than answers. So will anything be clear ever? There are no definitive

:36:56.:37:00.

answers on what Scotland might look like after independence. There

:37:00.:37:04.

would be a long ago station about how you share National that, North

:37:04.:37:07.

Sea oil, defence spending. There is not a single answer about which bit

:37:07.:37:12.

of that is Scotland and which bit is for the rest of the UK. There is

:37:12.:37:15.

no single answer and the question that will remain after independence,

:37:15.:37:20.

after a vote on independence, is how that that association will come

:37:20.:37:24.

out. The one thing that we do know that we know is that the biggest

:37:24.:37:27.

decision that got and takes in centuries may well be made before

:37:27.:37:32.

its people are in full possession of the economic facts. -- that

:37:32.:37:36.

Scotland takes. From yes campaign, Blair Jenkins,

:37:36.:37:43.

the former editor of BBC Scotland and STV. Have you started this

:37:43.:37:47.

campaign so early because the boat is not until 2014 because you are

:37:47.:37:56.

so far behind, 2-1, against independence? Hello. I think there

:37:56.:37:58.

is a tremendous job to be done over the next two-and-a-half years to

:37:58.:38:02.

allow people in Scotland to at all the questions they want to ask and

:38:02.:38:10.

get all the answers to make is important decision. The great thing

:38:10.:38:15.

that has happened today, and it has been an electrifying event, has

:38:15.:38:21.

been a tremendous way to start the campaign. But you concede that 2 -1,

:38:21.:38:28.

Scottish people are against what you want? I think if the opinion

:38:28.:38:33.

polls are saying different things. There is a very large sector of the

:38:33.:38:36.

population who have not made up their mind. I talk to people in all

:38:36.:38:41.

walks of life in Scotland, business, sport and elsewhere. I think that

:38:42.:38:45.

an awful lot of people are at the point where they are going to vote

:38:45.:38:48.

for independence or are heading in that direction and are waiting to

:38:48.:38:52.

be persuaded. I think the job for the campaign over the next couple

:38:52.:38:55.

of years is to nudge the people in Scotland in the direction in which

:38:55.:38:58.

they want to travel anywhere. They are on this journey and they want

:38:58.:39:04.

to be nudged. If you cannot win the argument now, when can you? The

:39:04.:39:07.

Tories are almost irrelevant in Scotland now and the Lib Dems are

:39:07.:39:11.

in meltdown. Labour Party has been on the back that until very

:39:11.:39:18.

recently. -- the back foot. There is an SNP landslide, the country is

:39:18.:39:22.

in recession, and your country has a war chest of millions. If you

:39:22.:39:29.

cannot win now, when can you? A think we are going to win. You are

:39:29.:39:32.

not winning the argument at the moment. I think we are winning the

:39:32.:39:38.

argument. One of the things that we can see right around the world now,

:39:38.:39:42.

in this country and elsewhere, is that very often people are making

:39:42.:39:45.

up their minds on big boat, presidential elections and things,

:39:45.:39:51.

pretty late in the day. -- big votes. And we have seen some

:39:51.:39:55.

results quite late in the campaign. I absolutely believe, and this is

:39:55.:39:59.

my own experience and I have seen data to back this up, that there is

:39:59.:40:02.

a large sector of the population in Scotland that has not made up their

:40:02.:40:07.

minds, but they are willing to be persuaded. It is the wrong

:40:07.:40:10.

perception to think that opinion in Scotland has calcified into those

:40:10.:40:13.

in favour and those against. It certainly has not and there is

:40:13.:40:18.

everything to play for. This team has just come onto the pitch today.

:40:18.:40:21.

I am sure there is everything to play for, but the opinion polls

:40:21.:40:26.

have been quite consistent. Often less than a third are in favour of

:40:26.:40:30.

your side of the argument. There are also two other things that are

:40:30.:40:35.

difficult for you. 30% of Scottish Nationalist voters are against

:40:35.:40:39.

independence! They vote SNP but they are not in favour of

:40:39.:40:43.

independence. And only 27% of women are in favour of independence. That

:40:43.:40:52.

is a hill to climb. You are referring to today's opinion poll,

:40:52.:40:55.

but there are different opinion polls and much depends on what is

:40:55.:41:00.

being asked, as with all opinion polls. But the truth is, I mean,

:41:00.:41:03.

you and I live and work in the political media bubble, that

:41:03.:41:10.

village, and we follow these things very closely, but most folk are not

:41:10.:41:13.

paying a great deal of attention to this at the moment. But they

:41:13.:41:17.

certainly will become engaged in what is going to be a campaign, a

:41:17.:41:21.

movement, over the next couple of years, the scale of which people

:41:21.:41:25.

will never have seen on these islands. I know you do come here

:41:25.:41:30.

sometimes, but just watch. And we will. Can you clarify one issue for

:41:30.:41:34.

me? It is quite important for the future and defence of these islands,

:41:34.:41:38.

which we are all part of, with an independent Scotland be part of

:41:38.:41:44.

NATO? I am not going to give you an opinion on that. Why not, it is

:41:44.:41:49.

quite important? As you know, I come from a broadcasting background

:41:49.:41:53.

and I am not used to this sort of platform. It is the first time I

:41:53.:41:58.

have ever expressed an opinion about anything. I understand but

:41:58.:42:03.

the linchpin of our communal defence is the membership of NATO.

:42:03.:42:09.

People are pledged to come to our aid should we be under attack. If

:42:09.:42:15.

Scotland is independent, will we or will we not be part of NATO?

:42:15.:42:18.

think that is a very valid question and it needs to be addressed over

:42:18.:42:23.

the next two-and-a-half years. I think the weight of opinion that is

:42:23.:42:27.

here today is behind the idea that whatever decision we are making,

:42:27.:42:31.

about NATO, the currency, anything else, that the people best place to

:42:31.:42:36.

take those decisions for Scotland of the people living in Scotland. I

:42:36.:42:40.

think policy decisions, including important ones about NATO

:42:40.:42:43.

membership, are for another day. Not today. They certainly need to

:42:43.:42:47.

be dealt with between now and the day of the vote. I can give you a

:42:47.:42:51.

personal view, and I am open to the argument. I do not have a fixed you

:42:51.:42:56.

and I would like to hear both sides. Was it not a mistake to launch the

:42:56.:43:00.

campaign in a cinema where the double bill is The Dictator and

:43:01.:43:05.

Dark Shadows? You know Scotland well enough to know that cinemas

:43:05.:43:09.

play an extraordinarily powerful role in Scottish life. We are in

:43:09.:43:15.

Edinburgh, but Glasgow had at one time the highest number of cinemas

:43:15.:43:24.

per head of anywhere in the world. It was just a joke! So numbers --

:43:24.:43:28.

sinners have an important resonance. That was just a silly joke from me.

:43:28.:43:33.

But we have to thank you for joining us.

:43:33.:43:40.

Where are you on this? Better than Jaws! I think Alex Salmond will be

:43:40.:43:45.

in trouble on this. You do? I think that tide and time have turned

:43:45.:43:50.

against him, rather. He got one- third of the council vote when

:43:50.:43:54.

Labour fully expected to lose Glasgow. Labour did well, and be

:43:54.:43:58.

seen to be on their way back in the West. There is that, but it seems

:43:58.:44:05.

to me so unclear. There is the NATO issue, but independence as it is

:44:05.:44:12.

being talked about is not that difference to devo max. They will

:44:12.:44:16.

get some more tax powers. I think general confidence in being a

:44:16.:44:20.

nation will not be riding high on this. I think Scotland should be

:44:20.:44:24.

able to raise its own taxes and pay its own bills, but I would like it

:44:25.:44:29.

to become part of the union. Devo max is the best outcome but how do

:44:29.:44:33.

we get there? The danger of including it in the ballot, if that

:44:33.:44:37.

wins, that will empower people to demand a second referendum in five

:44:37.:44:43.

or 10 years. I think we should make it straight yes or no, but if it is

:44:43.:44:50.

no, at give them devo max anyway. Or give them a debate?

:44:50.:44:58.

We have had my colt both -- we have had Michael Gove saying that

:44:58.:45:03.

teaching is holding back poorer kids and many would like to see the

:45:03.:45:05.

return of grammar schools, but Michael Gove has said this will not

:45:05.:45:10.

be a magic bullet. The Deputy Minister Nick Clegg has also laid

:45:10.:45:14.

out an entire social mobility strategy from the Government. His

:45:14.:45:18.

recipe is a pupil premium, subsidised nursery care, and

:45:18.:45:28.
:45:28.:45:30.

demanding that universities give Mobility is about creating a truly

:45:30.:45:34.

level playing field and a fair race. This is why the coalition

:45:34.:45:39.

government is encouraging universities to recruit on the

:45:39.:45:43.

basis of objective potential, on the basis of an ability to excel,

:45:43.:45:49.

not purely on previous attainment. It may surprise the none Brits

:45:49.:45:53.

among you to learn that in some quarters in the UK, the idea of

:45:53.:45:58.

carefully taking into account the impact of background in assessing

:45:58.:46:02.

university applications has been painted by some as a dangerous

:46:02.:46:08.

piece of revolutionary socialism. But far from dumbing down, is Sir

:46:08.:46:13.

about increasing opportunity to achieve excellence. Joining us now,

:46:13.:46:21.

the Lib Dem MP Mike Crockatt. He joins us from Edinburgh. Our two

:46:21.:46:25.

studio guests have strong interests in social mobility. When will we

:46:25.:46:29.

know if anything of this is working? Of Illsley, it will take

:46:29.:46:38.

some time, because the plan is to try to help to-year-olds, three-

:46:38.:46:41.

year-old and four-year-olds. It has been shown that that is the best

:46:41.:46:45.

place to invest money. It is too late later on to try and make the

:46:45.:46:49.

difference, because children have already pulled ahead. We need to

:46:49.:46:54.

invest the majority of the money available in two early years. And

:46:54.:46:59.

that is what we are doing. Is it better or worse than it was,

:46:59.:47:04.

compared with 30 years ago? I would say broadly, it is fairly similar.

:47:04.:47:10.

All that has been done over the last 30 years has improved the lot

:47:10.:47:14.

generally for all children across the spectrum. But the gap between

:47:14.:47:24.

the richest and poorest has stayed pretty much the same. Toby Young,

:47:24.:47:28.

this is like apple-pie and peace, everybody is in favour of it and

:47:28.:47:32.

they talk endlessly about it. You sometimes wonder if the more people

:47:32.:47:36.

talk about it, the less happens. It is a nebulous concept. Successive

:47:37.:47:40.

governments have made doing something about social mobility a

:47:40.:47:46.

priority, and yet it has continued to decline. In defence of the Lib

:47:46.:47:50.

Dems, intervention in nursery, all the research evidence is that that

:47:50.:47:54.

is how to deploy your resources most effectively if you want to do

:47:54.:47:59.

something about social mobility. Better nursery care and be re-

:47:59.:48:02.

education -- pre-school education. The pupil premium is a good idea,

:48:02.:48:05.

but I would draw the line at insisting that our best

:48:05.:48:13.

universities lower the standards for students from state schools. We

:48:13.:48:18.

need to raise standards. I And yet evidence suggests that when bright

:48:18.:48:22.

state schools kids get to our best universities, they end up with the

:48:22.:48:26.

best degrees. The air is no reason why those same children should and

:48:26.:48:30.

do just as well at secondary school so that they are able to compete

:48:30.:48:34.

with the product of independent schools. Maybe those schools are

:48:34.:48:37.

not conducive to go in to university. He will are looking at

:48:37.:48:42.

a narrow band. I applaud what Nick Clegg has been trying to do. It has

:48:42.:48:46.

been a big crusade for him. And I agree with Toby that it is all

:48:46.:48:54.

about early-years. But in the end, it is all filtered through the top

:48:54.:49:00.

few percentage of kids, the elite universities, Oxbridge. You will

:49:00.:49:05.

always get a few bright children who can be helped to make their way

:49:05.:49:09.

through, and that is important. But Ed Miliband made a decent speech on

:49:09.:49:14.

social mobility this week. He is looking much lower down the line,

:49:14.:49:19.

not just at university entrants, but looking at this huge

:49:19.:49:27.

unemployment problem for kids who will not get an apprenticeship or

:49:27.:49:29.

vocational qualifications in engineering and so on. They are

:49:29.:49:35.

being downgraded rather than value. It is difficult to entrenched any

:49:35.:49:41.

sort of parity. Mike, you have got the social mobility transparency

:49:41.:49:44.

board, whatever that means. You have the social mobility and child

:49:45.:49:48.

poverty Commission. You have the ministerial group on social

:49:48.:49:52.

mobility. If government quangos were the answer, we would be the

:49:52.:49:57.

most mobile country in the world. In the end, if you want to get

:49:57.:50:01.

social mobility across the spectrum, don't you just have to see a

:50:01.:50:08.

massive improvement in the quality of state education? Absolutely.

:50:08.:50:13.

That is the bottom line. And that is what we are trying to do. We are

:50:13.:50:18.

trying to make sure that children entering the education system are

:50:19.:50:22.

already on a level playing field and do not have to catch up. The

:50:22.:50:26.

evidence shows that they don't catch up. By the gap between the

:50:26.:50:30.

private schools and state schools has never been wider. It is getting

:50:30.:50:36.

worse. Broadly, it is staying the same. But the state schools are

:50:36.:50:40.

getting better and the private schools are getting better, but the

:50:40.:50:44.

gap remains the same. It is great to hear such support across the

:50:44.:50:49.

board for what we are trying to do with the pupil premium. But there

:50:49.:50:54.

is other stuff going on. There is �1 billion invested in the youth

:50:54.:50:56.

contract, which is trying to deal with the issue of apprenticeships.

:50:56.:51:02.

This morning, I hosted an event at Murrayfield stadium that had 100

:51:02.:51:07.

people in business from across Edinburgh. I was trying to sell to

:51:07.:51:11.

them the new contract, the Modern apprenticeship, business mentoring.

:51:11.:51:17.

There is a lot of other stuff going on to make sure we help those

:51:17.:51:22.

fallen behind to catch up. But the answer is undoubtedly to get in

:51:22.:51:29.

early. There is only one place available at Balliol College,

:51:29.:51:36.

Oxford. There are two candidates. One has five A * A-levels. He is

:51:37.:51:43.

from Eton. The other has four * A levels. She is from Easterhouse

:51:43.:51:49.

high. Who should get the place? one from Easterhouse high would not

:51:49.:51:55.

have A-levels. But you get my point. I did A-levels, and I was educated

:51:55.:52:01.

in Scotland. But leaving that aside, let's look at the potential of the

:52:01.:52:08.

individual. Let's look at the individuals applying and see how

:52:08.:52:15.

they sell themselves and what they can potentially achieve. You would

:52:15.:52:20.

do it by an interview? You would automatic it in favour of the Old

:52:20.:52:27.

Etonian. Not at all. We? Yes. I have two apprentices in London at

:52:27.:52:31.

the moment. Quite purposefully, neither of them have come from a

:52:31.:52:35.

private education background. They are both very capable and

:52:35.:52:41.

interviewed very well. You're serious point is that nobody ever

:52:41.:52:46.

talks about downward social mobility. It is a one-way street.

:52:46.:52:54.

So your Eton candidate with the five A *, his parents are not

:52:54.:52:58.

likely to relinquish this privilege. This is something Nick Clegg fell

:52:58.:53:04.

foul of himself this week, and credit to him for doing so. He was

:53:04.:53:10.

accused of all sorts of interference. We are running out of

:53:10.:53:14.

time. Thanks for joining us. Now let's look back at the Week in

:53:14.:53:18.

politics, a week when the sun came out over Big Ben and the red mist

:53:18.:53:28.

descended in the chamber. The week started with Camp David.

:53:28.:53:31.

That is David Cameron, who cheered on Chelsea during the G8 summit,

:53:31.:53:36.

held at President Obama's woodland retreat. Then he was off to the

:53:36.:53:41.

NATO summit in Chicago, where he had enough time for a walk in the

:53:41.:53:44.

weeds with the mayor of the Windy City. But when Cameron got back to

:53:44.:53:49.

Westminster, he was not his usually relaxed self when confronted with

:53:50.:53:53.

Ed Balls. We have we would not have if we listened to the muttering

:53:53.:53:57.

idiot sitting opposite. That's earned a ticking off from the

:53:57.:54:02.

Speaker. But Vince Cable also got one for going to Germany instead of

:54:02.:54:07.

his departmental Question Time in the Commons. It is undesirable for

:54:07.:54:10.

the Secretary of State to be absent on these occasions. It must not

:54:10.:54:15.

become regular practice. Finally, the Prince of darkness met the Lord

:54:15.:54:19.

Justice of transparency. Mandy told the Leveson Inquiry he had never

:54:20.:54:28.

leaked a story, ever. Honestly, never.

:54:28.:54:33.

Honestly, he never did. No, if you think the tempers got

:54:33.:54:36.

frayed in the House of Commons this week, take a look at these scenes

:54:36.:54:46.

from the Ukrainian parliament. A debate about giving the Russian

:54:46.:54:51.

language equal status in part of the country rather descended into

:54:51.:55:01.
:55:01.:55:03.

this. It got quite serious. Somehow, I don't think the Ukraine will be

:55:03.:55:05.

giving these Russian granny's "douze points" in tomorrow night's

:55:06.:55:15.

Eurovision Song Contest. Of course, in the Mother of parliaments, the

:55:15.:55:19.

men in tights would have moved in and separated them quickly. Let's

:55:19.:55:26.

come back to our own place. The Prime Minister was firstly accused

:55:26.:55:34.

of relaxing and being too concerned with football, and then he became

:55:34.:55:38.

angry day event could not control his temper. What is the truth? That

:55:38.:55:41.

her as been the narrative around this event. He did not look as

:55:41.:55:48.

though he had lost his temper. was riled. He was, but he often

:55:48.:55:51.

gives as good as he gets across the dispatch box, and that was just an

:55:52.:55:56.

example of that. His own side loved it. George Osborne was crying for

:55:56.:56:02.

more. No under less, you also have to look at Ed Balls' face. Nobody

:56:02.:56:10.

was happy at Ed Balls being called a muttering idiot. The reason for

:56:10.:56:14.

this is the notion that David Cameron does lose his temper, and

:56:14.:56:20.

he can't always control it. That is perceived as damaging by Labour, so

:56:20.:56:26.

obviously, they try and get the rise out of him. I think all 10

:56:26.:56:31.

people watching the Daily Politics when that was shown appreciate the

:56:31.:56:34.

fact that David Cameron is a human being and sometimes loses his

:56:34.:56:38.

temper. He is not preaching self- control. One of the criticisms on

:56:38.:56:43.

Cameron on my side is that he does not get angry enough, he does not

:56:43.:56:47.

hate your position as much as they hate him. So it was good to see a

:56:47.:56:51.

bit of rage. He isn't there a great difference between Gen run --

:56:51.:56:55.

genuine passion and anger and slagging off the other side?

:56:55.:57:00.

Calling Ed Balls a muttering idiot is not quite of Ukrainian

:57:00.:57:08.

proportions. But it is still public school playground knockabout at its

:57:08.:57:15.

kindest. That is how it was perceived. Ed Balls himself is a

:57:15.:57:20.

public schoolboy. In deed. But in the long run, the more he gets

:57:21.:57:24.

riled up by Ed Balls, the more he will be determined to stop Ed Balls

:57:25.:57:29.

succeeding him. Gladstone let off steam by felling trees. Winston

:57:29.:57:36.

Churchill painted. Robert Walpole brewed his own beer. And our Prime

:57:36.:57:42.

Minister does fruit ninja. Before we go, let's find out the answer to

:57:42.:57:47.

our quiz. The question was which politician drag Toby Young under a

:57:48.:57:56.

table. Can you remember who it was? I can. It was the great UKIP leader

:57:56.:58:02.

himself, Nigel Farage. I had heard he was a legendary drinker, so

:58:02.:58:09.

rather mischievously, at a book party, I said to him, how about a

:58:09.:58:15.

drinking contest? Then he started lining up the vodka shots and

:58:15.:58:19.

started back in the way. Within an hour or so, he had won. You drank

:58:19.:58:25.

vodka shots from our? How many did you get through? Not as many as

:58:25.:58:28.

Nigel. He was still standing and very much compos mentis at the end

:58:28.:58:34.

of it. He thank you to both of you for being with me today and keeping

:58:34.:58:38.

the company. That is it for today. We thank all our guests. The One

:58:38.:58:44.

O'clock News is starting on BBC One now. I will be back on BBC One on

:58:44.:58:48.

Sunday at 11 o'clock in the morning, with the Sunday Politics. Hope you

:58:48.:58:52.

can join me then. But that is it for the Daily Politics. We are off

:58:52.:58:56.

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