Browse content similar to 21/09/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Good afternoon. Welcome to the Daily Politics. Are plans to solve | :00:44. | :00:47. | |
the crisis facing elderly care being blocked by the Treasury? | :00:47. | :00:50. | |
That's the view of the former Care Minister who lost his job in the | :00:50. | :00:53. | |
reshuffle. We'll be talking to the man who replaced him. Party | :00:53. | :00:56. | |
conference season is in full swing. Odds on questions of leadership | :00:56. | :01:03. | |
could dominate. Luckily, we've got a bookie on hand. Nick Clegg's song | :01:03. | :01:13. | |
:01:13. | :01:14. | ||
to get to number one - we've got all the latest on Westminster's | :01:14. | :01:24. | |
:01:24. | :01:24. | ||
runners and riders. What are the odds on UKIP and the Tories doing a | :01:25. | :01:27. | |
deal ahead of the next election? UKIP's leader has been addressing | :01:27. | :01:30. | |
his party conference this morning. We'll be asking him just that later. | :01:30. | :01:33. | |
And Adam's on the green with all the important questions. Believe it | :01:33. | :01:35. | |
or not, these are the must-have political memorabilia this season. | :01:35. | :01:40. | |
Well done, Adam. He almost kept it together there. I won't be rushing | :01:40. | :01:45. | |
out to get a pair of those. And with us for the whole programme | :01:45. | :01:48. | |
today are Mary Riddell of the Daily Telegraph and the radio presenter | :01:48. | :01:51. | |
Ian Collins. Welcome to you both. Now, first today let's talk about | :01:51. | :01:54. | |
the Chief Whip, Andrew Mitchell, who has had to apologise after | :01:54. | :01:57. | |
making disrespectful remarks to police officers who refused to let | :01:57. | :02:00. | |
him out of the main gate at Downing Street. He's denied a report in the | :02:00. | :02:03. | |
Sun that he called the officers "plebs". Well, let's talk to our | :02:03. | :02:06. | |
political correspondent Gary O'Donohue, who is at the Downing | :02:06. | :02:12. | |
Street gates. Gary, hello. Hello. Downing Street, | :02:12. | :02:17. | |
what have they said? They have said that there wasn't any swearing or | :02:17. | :02:22. | |
shouting by Andrew Mitchell. The allegation is that on Wednesday | :02:22. | :02:26. | |
evening on his bike, Andrew Mitchell drove up to the main gate | :02:26. | :02:30. | |
behind me, and he said normally the policeman let him through there. | :02:30. | :02:33. | |
Instead on this evening they insisted he come through the side | :02:33. | :02:37. | |
gate, not a million miles away, next to it. There was no argument | :02:37. | :02:41. | |
according to Downing Street, no shouting, but there were | :02:41. | :02:47. | |
allegations he used a number of expletives, probably Anglo-Saxon in | :02:47. | :02:51. | |
their character, that he called officers plebs. However, it was | :02:51. | :02:56. | |
sufficiently bad there was a face- to-face with the Prime Minister, | :02:56. | :03:01. | |
and he's due to apologise to the officers and a sergeant, an officer | :03:01. | :03:06. | |
on duty that day. That is due to happen. The wider issue is that | :03:06. | :03:10. | |
this is embarrassing at any stage of the game, really, having a | :03:10. | :03:16. | |
slanging match in the street in you're a Cabinet member, but if the | :03:16. | :03:22. | |
focus is on the role of the police and what they do, the events in | :03:22. | :03:27. | |
Manchester, then it starts to become damning. A member of the | :03:27. | :03:31. | |
back benchs has waded in and described it as unacceptable and | :03:31. | :03:34. | |
saying he'll tell Mr Mitchell to his face when he sees him. There is | :03:34. | :03:41. | |
a lot of anger about this. surprising. Norman Tebbit said it | :03:41. | :03:43. | |
was extraordinarily stupid and suggests he can't take the pressure | :03:44. | :03:48. | |
of his new job. Is he in trouble over this in terms of his new | :03:48. | :03:52. | |
position I don't detect that at the moment. These things have a life of | :03:53. | :03:58. | |
their own, if you know. It will depend on whether or not an apology | :03:58. | :04:05. | |
draws the sting from this and how complete the apology is. I notice | :04:05. | :04:08. | |
today the Police Federation say it's a bit halfhearted, the apology | :04:09. | :04:12. | |
that has been around already. There was a dispute about the facts of | :04:12. | :04:15. | |
what was said, what wasn't actually said on the day itself, so those | :04:15. | :04:21. | |
things are still to be cleared up, and - but I don't detect at this | :04:21. | :04:25. | |
stage that he's really in any big trouble with his job. Of course, | :04:25. | :04:29. | |
he's the Chief Whip, so he has a sort of perfect reason for fading | :04:29. | :04:33. | |
into the background. He shouldn't really be a very public figure. You | :04:33. | :04:37. | |
might think perhaps - I don't know - in the next few days, maybe he'll | :04:37. | :04:41. | |
get the bus to work. Yes. I wonder if he'll listen to your advice. | :04:41. | :04:44. | |
Do you think this is going to stick? I think it will stick | :04:44. | :04:48. | |
because really it sort of says everything about what people think | :04:48. | :04:50. | |
they think about the Conservative Party. I think it was very | :04:50. | :04:54. | |
interesting that the one word he really took exception to was the | :04:54. | :05:00. | |
word pleb. I mean, he said he didn't recognise the form of words, | :05:00. | :05:04. | |
but if you read the alleged quotes they were fairly juicy, as Gary | :05:05. | :05:10. | |
suggests. It's the word "pleb" which implies the sort of patrician | :05:10. | :05:19. | |
Tory on his bicycled wanting the gates open for him, quite happy to | :05:19. | :05:23. | |
hair angthe police force in the worst week to have done so. | :05:23. | :05:28. | |
denies he said that word, but the fact that he had to deny that bit | :05:28. | :05:32. | |
of it and it was disputed, what he did, what does it do in terms of | :05:32. | :05:39. | |
image for David Cameron? He is always fighting accusations he and | :05:39. | :05:44. | |
his accolades are toffs. And doing a lousy job of fighting. Here we | :05:44. | :05:50. | |
have a posh boy, elite in the inner circle of the Cabinet - all of | :05:50. | :05:53. | |
those feed directly into this problem that David Cameron has. | :05:53. | :05:57. | |
This guy is a senior member of the inner circle, and here he is having | :05:57. | :06:03. | |
stand-up row in public with the constabulary which happens to be a | :06:03. | :06:07. | |
day after some pretty serious news about the police in Manchester, and | :06:07. | :06:11. | |
here's a senior Cabinet member officer arguing - we know this word | :06:11. | :06:16. | |
pleb is still up for debate but until Andrew Mitchell actually says | :06:16. | :06:19. | |
this is what was said... Do you think he needs to come in front of | :06:19. | :06:26. | |
the cameras? Absolutely, and I think this... Gary mentioned the | :06:26. | :06:29. | |
police and how high profile they are bearing in mind incidents that | :06:30. | :06:34. | |
have happened in Manchester. You may or may not remember the Mayor | :06:34. | :06:38. | |
of London saying actually anyone swearing at the police should be | :06:38. | :06:42. | |
arrested. Let's listen to his clip. In the same spirit of zero | :06:42. | :06:46. | |
tolerance I reckon we need to get back to where we were before a law | :06:47. | :06:51. | |
of 1988 and to make it clear that if people swear at the police, then | :06:51. | :06:55. | |
they must expect to be arrested - not just - | :06:55. | :07:00. | |
APPLAUSE Not just because it's wrong to | :07:00. | :07:05. | |
expect it, in my view, to expect officers to endure profanities, but | :07:05. | :07:08. | |
I happen to think it is, but it's about the experience of the | :07:08. | :07:15. | |
culprits. If people feel that there are no comebacks and no boundaries | :07:15. | :07:19. | |
and no retribution for the small stuff, then I'm afraid they'll go | :07:19. | :07:22. | |
on to commit worse crimes. Mary Riddell, that'll come back to haunt | :07:22. | :07:27. | |
them. It will come back to haunt them. Yes, again, more needling by | :07:28. | :07:31. | |
Boris, albeit inadvertent in this case, but it is true, isn't it? In | :07:31. | :07:35. | |
this country we have policing by consent. There has been a debate | :07:35. | :07:39. | |
this week whether police should be around armed, so the deal is that | :07:39. | :07:44. | |
the police obviously aren't armed - that they behave disrespectfully | :07:44. | :07:48. | |
towards the public and vice versa. I think for a really senior member | :07:48. | :07:52. | |
of Government to thwart that, to cross that fairly narrow and | :07:52. | :07:56. | |
delicate line is a really sort of serious thing because as Boris is | :07:56. | :08:00. | |
kind of suggesting or implying, if you've got some football hooligan | :08:00. | :08:05. | |
who had had a couple of pints of lager and was rude to a policeman | :08:05. | :08:10. | |
on the way - they would be just marched off to the cells before you | :08:10. | :08:16. | |
could - before Norman Tebbit could say "on your bike", so the fact | :08:16. | :08:21. | |
that all he's supposedly got to do is apologise... It's irrelevant | :08:21. | :08:24. | |
he's a Tory. I have lost count of how many arguments I had over | :08:24. | :08:28. | |
things like the riots when people were accused of saying all manner | :08:28. | :08:33. | |
of terrible thinks to the police. That seemed fine from the left-wing | :08:33. | :08:38. | |
perspective but because he's a Tory and on Twitter he was - people were | :08:39. | :08:46. | |
using words like "posh boys", "Snobby Tories", "Typical Tories." | :08:46. | :08:51. | |
What about the entrance? I have been in and out all the time. | :08:51. | :08:57. | |
kind of character wants gates open to ride a push-bike out? It's all a | :08:57. | :09:01. | |
matter of prestige because there is no detail involved. You just get | :09:01. | :09:08. | |
off and push your bike. That's all he had to do. Maybe he won't be | :09:08. | :09:10. | |
standing for an elected Police Commissioner. | :09:10. | :09:13. | |
In just over a decade the number of people over the age of 85 in | :09:13. | :09:16. | |
England is expected to double, and as the population ages, there's an | :09:16. | :09:20. | |
urgent need to find more money to help pay for our care in old age. | :09:20. | :09:23. | |
It's one of the most pressing long- term decisions facing the | :09:23. | :09:26. | |
Government. But plans to solve the looming crisis are apparently being | :09:26. | :09:29. | |
"blocked by the Treasury" - that's the view of the former Care | :09:29. | :09:31. | |
Services Minister, the Liberal Democrat MP Paul Burstow. After | :09:31. | :09:34. | |
losing his job in the recent reshuffle, he's written a strongly | :09:34. | :09:36. | |
worded article in today's Daily Telegraph warning the Treasury not | :09:36. | :09:39. | |
to duck the issue. He says, "The Treasury's view is simple - kick | :09:39. | :09:42. | |
the can down the road despite our rising elderly population." He also | :09:42. | :09:46. | |
has a message for David Cameron and Nick Clegg, saying he fears "the | :09:46. | :09:49. | |
Coalition could be tempted to put care financing back in the 'too | :09:49. | :09:52. | |
difficult to do' drawer." By 2026 the number of people aged over 85 | :09:52. | :09:55. | |
in England is expected to double to around 2.4 million. The average 65- | :09:55. | :09:58. | |
year-old today faces lifetime care costs of �35,000, but these can | :09:58. | :10:05. | |
vary wildly. A commission led by the economist Andrew Dilnot | :10:05. | :10:08. | |
published its findings last year. It proposed a cap on individual | :10:08. | :10:14. | |
care costs of �35,000, after which the state should pay. Ministers are | :10:14. | :10:16. | |
considering a watered-down version which would impose a "voluntary | :10:16. | :10:21. | |
cap" which would only protect those who paid a fee to opt in. But Paul | :10:21. | :10:25. | |
Burstow says this idea is "dangerous". | :10:25. | :10:28. | |
Well, earlier I spoke to Norman Lamb. He succeeded Paul Burstow as | :10:28. | :10:32. | |
Care Minister and is also a Lib Dem MP. I asked him if he agreed that | :10:32. | :10:38. | |
the plans to reform care funding were being blocked by the Treasury. | :10:38. | :10:44. | |
Well, look, I'm a fortnight into the job, and so I can't give an | :10:44. | :10:47. | |
assessment of the full position, but that's not the impression I get, | :10:47. | :10:53. | |
and certainly as a new Care Minister, I am determined that we | :10:53. | :10:57. | |
see this through. This is one of the areas of public policy which is | :10:58. | :11:02. | |
long overdue for reform, and it's been sort of pushed into the long | :11:02. | :11:05. | |
grass for far too long now, and you may remember before the last | :11:05. | :11:09. | |
general election, I tried to get cross-party talks going to get a | :11:09. | :11:13. | |
solution here, and I argued the case for a commission, so we've | :11:13. | :11:17. | |
made a lot of progress. I think it's really good news that the | :11:17. | :11:20. | |
Government has said that it supports in principle the idea of | :11:20. | :11:24. | |
the cap. I was encouraged by what David Cameron said over the summer, | :11:24. | :11:29. | |
so I think the next stage is to seek agreement on how we can fund | :11:29. | :11:33. | |
it. I'm sorry to put this to you, but what progress has been made? I | :11:33. | :11:36. | |
mean, there's no progress at all. Nothing has been agreed since | :11:36. | :11:40. | |
Andrew Dilnot published his report and recommendations, and you do | :11:40. | :11:43. | |
agree with Paul Burstow. You say it has been kicked into the long grass. | :11:43. | :11:47. | |
He agrees with that. He says it's the fault of the Treasury. Do you? | :11:47. | :11:51. | |
When you say no progress has been made, I just disagree with that. | :11:51. | :11:55. | |
Tell me what's been agreeed? No cap has been agreed no. Money has been | :11:56. | :12:00. | |
found to fund... But the model of care which is the critical starting | :12:00. | :12:04. | |
point, has now been accepted in principle. That's an incredibly | :12:04. | :12:08. | |
important starting point. Now we have to work out how it's funded. | :12:08. | :12:12. | |
take your point that you've agreed in principle to a cap to give | :12:12. | :12:15. | |
people some assurance about how their long-term care is paid for. | :12:15. | :12:18. | |
Where should that cap be? In there is no agreement on that, you'll | :12:18. | :12:23. | |
never have progress. Well, look, I haven't got a figure that I can | :12:23. | :12:28. | |
give you today that is my sort of settled view because, of course, | :12:28. | :12:31. | |
whenever you put the cap has implications for the cost of the | :12:31. | :12:38. | |
whole programme, but it has to be at a level that gives people the | :12:38. | :12:42. | |
reassurance that the assets that they've sort of - often worked for | :12:42. | :12:46. | |
throughout their lives remain secure. If it's too high, it won't | :12:46. | :12:51. | |
give that reassurance, and it won't also give an incentive to the | :12:52. | :12:55. | |
inshurns industry to provide products to fill that gap. But what | :12:55. | :12:59. | |
is affordable? Be honest with viewers. Is it true that there is | :12:59. | :13:03. | |
no money to spend on this at the moment. That's why it hasn't been | :13:03. | :13:07. | |
agreed. The former Health Secretary Andrew Lansley said in the current | :13:07. | :13:10. | |
spending environment, the Government will have to consider | :13:10. | :13:15. | |
the Andrew Dilnot recommendations carefully against other restraints | :13:15. | :13:21. | |
and calls for resources. There is no money for this, is will? I take | :13:21. | :13:26. | |
the view this is a priority. It's an unreformed system. There needs | :13:26. | :13:30. | |
to be more than just Dilnot. The Government's bill we plan to take | :13:30. | :13:34. | |
through next year will reform the whole social care system in a very | :13:34. | :13:38. | |
positive way giving new rights to carers and those who are cared for, | :13:38. | :13:43. | |
but the fact is that you have to reach judgments about when it is | :13:43. | :13:47. | |
introduced, the level of the cap and, critically, how it's paid for. | :13:47. | :13:51. | |
You can pay for it by cutting other things, or you can pay for it... | :13:51. | :13:55. | |
you think it should be paid for by cutting other things if it's that | :13:55. | :14:01. | |
much of a priority? In my view, it has to be paid for in a way that is | :14:01. | :14:04. | |
progressive, that is based on your ability to pay. You have to try and | :14:04. | :14:10. | |
be fair both in terms of people's capacity to pay but also in terms | :14:10. | :14:13. | |
of inter-generational fairness. Could the working-age population | :14:13. | :14:20. | |
actually stomach anymore burden in terms of tax, or should the burden | :14:20. | :14:24. | |
apply in later years? These are the decisions that you have to discuss | :14:24. | :14:27. | |
across the parties to reach agreement, and that's what I am | :14:27. | :14:32. | |
intent on doing. One of the biggest areas of concern is dementia and | :14:32. | :14:36. | |
how you deal with it and how you pay for it and the carers that are | :14:36. | :14:39. | |
involved. What's your response to recent reports that big | :14:39. | :14:45. | |
pharmaceuticals are decreasing their funding for dementia after | :14:45. | :14:47. | |
several costly clinical trial failures? I think some of those | :14:48. | :14:52. | |
reports may be misleading. We're planning major event next month | :14:52. | :14:55. | |
with Government coming together with the pharmaceutical industry to | :14:55. | :15:01. | |
look at working together, and in a sensuousing the UK's remarkable NHS | :15:01. | :15:07. | |
system as a basis for undertaking the research that could lead to a | :15:07. | :15:10. | |
breakthrough. The Government itself is doubling the amount of money | :15:10. | :15:16. | |
that we're spending on research on dementia. It's part of the Prime | :15:16. | :15:21. | |
Minister's dementia challenge. The message today for everyone is, if | :15:21. | :15:28. | |
you know a loved one who you feel may be displaying early signs of | :15:28. | :15:31. | |
dementia, have that difficult conversation. Talk to them and get | :15:31. | :15:37. | |
them along to a GP, your GP, because early diagnosis can make a | :15:37. | :15:40. | |
real difference. It can improve health and well being. Actually, | :15:40. | :15:44. | |
also, it reduces the cost of care in the long run and avoids a crisis | :15:44. | :15:47. | |
occurring. Norman Lamb, it's conference season, of course. That | :15:47. | :15:51. | |
won't have passed you by. How is Nick Clegg going to deal with the | :15:51. | :15:55. | |
leadership issue at the conference? Look, Nick is, as you might have | :15:55. | :16:01. | |
noticed, actually, remarkably resilient. The pressure he has been | :16:01. | :16:05. | |
under - some of the personal abuse he's faced during the last two-and- | :16:05. | :16:10. | |
a-half years would have broken many a lesser person than Nick, but he | :16:10. | :16:15. | |
keeps going because, actually, the bottom line is, we're doing the | :16:15. | :16:18. | |
right thing working in the national interests, working with another | :16:18. | :16:24. | |
party, and, you know, political stability at a time of real | :16:24. | :16:28. | |
economic danger and turbulence is a priceless asset, and in time, I | :16:28. | :16:33. | |
suspect that people might actually reach the view that Nick should be | :16:33. | :16:37. | |
applauded for that. He has taken the very difficult decision to go | :16:37. | :16:41. | |
into this coalition and to keep making it work. Still be here by | :16:41. | :16:47. | |
2015? For that he should be recognised. Still be here by 2015? | :16:47. | :16:52. | |
Absolutely. He has to say that. Let's go back to the initial report | :16:52. | :16:57. | |
about care. Paul Burstow, in my experience, is not a man prone to | :16:57. | :17:00. | |
angry outbursts. Do you believe what he says that the Treasury is | :17:01. | :17:03. | |
blocking it? Absolutely. I think Paul Burstow is a well-regarded | :17:03. | :17:06. | |
Minister in that job. The point he makes that the Treasury have kicked | :17:06. | :17:11. | |
it into the long grass, that they actually won't stump up the money | :17:11. | :17:14. | |
needed I think has been one of the best kept secrets in politics | :17:14. | :17:18. | |
because everybody suspected that for a very, very long time. The | :17:18. | :17:23. | |
thing is with the Dilnot proposals, which everybody - all the parties | :17:23. | :17:28. | |
signed up to and welcomed, there is some tail-end cost involved. If you | :17:28. | :17:32. | |
bring in a voluntary insurance scheme, and the idea of only | :17:32. | :17:36. | |
providing help to people who have paid into that, obviously, would | :17:36. | :17:40. | |
discriminate against the very poorest or - sorts of people. That | :17:40. | :17:43. | |
wouldn't work. But it does mean that the state has to pick up some | :17:43. | :17:47. | |
of the tab. And that's where the Treasury is thought to be drawing | :17:47. | :17:50. | |
the line. As your report made really clear, this has been going | :17:50. | :17:55. | |
on for years and years. We have had one commission and Sutherland. | :17:55. | :18:01. | |
Everybody has looked at it. I think it's an overlooked word in politics | :18:01. | :18:06. | |
but there is a cries was this elderly population as well as | :18:06. | :18:16. | |
:18:16. | :18:23. | ||
people with dementia going up. This is as big as the NHS Bill in | :18:23. | :18:27. | |
itself. One of the reasons he said about it being quietly tucked away | :18:28. | :18:32. | |
and no one else is talking about it is probably true. I do not think it | :18:32. | :18:37. | |
is because the Tories do not want to help people. That is about the | :18:37. | :18:42. | |
image they had asked the Government. It is about the enormity of the | :18:42. | :18:47. | |
project. This will be just as big and problematic and cause just as | :18:47. | :18:54. | |
many problems. I take you do not think it will succeed? We will not | :18:54. | :18:59. | |
see any figures being put down on paper until the end of this | :18:59. | :19:05. | |
Parliament. I wonder if it might nudge them... It should be in the | :19:05. | :19:10. | |
next Spending Review. It will be interesting to see what effect this | :19:10. | :19:16. | |
intervention has. The magnitude is similar to the NHS. You cannot | :19:16. | :19:21. | |
afford to do it and you cannot afford not to do it. The failure of | :19:21. | :19:28. | |
social care has huge knock-on costs to the NHS. Lots of elderly people | :19:28. | :19:31. | |
are in hospitals because there is nowhere else for them to go. It is | :19:31. | :19:37. | |
a huge waste of public resources and getting worse all the time. | :19:37. | :19:39. | |
are you thinking of putting a Trixie on the Police Commissioner | :19:39. | :19:43. | |
elections? How about a flutter on an Ed Miliband victory - on the | :19:43. | :19:46. | |
nose - or a pony on David Cameron? What about a Yankee on the American | :19:46. | :19:50. | |
Senator elections? As long as you don't welch on a bet on House of | :19:50. | :19:53. | |
Lords reform or boundary changes. Perhaps you are more of an ethical | :19:53. | :19:56. | |
individual than my producer and you don't understand any of those | :19:56. | :19:58. | |
gambling terms. In that case, here's Susana Mendonsa explaining | :19:58. | :20:08. | |
:20:08. | :20:15. | ||
exactly how political betting has Look at the odds, check out the | :20:15. | :20:22. | |
form, and choose which ones to back. Not horses. I am talking political | :20:22. | :20:27. | |
beasts. We have been gambling our cash away it on them for centuries. | :20:28. | :20:35. | |
People were betting on who would be the next Pope as far back as 1503. | :20:35. | :20:40. | |
That was until Gregory the 14th banned all betting on Papal | :20:40. | :20:46. | |
elections on pain of execution. It was the Tory leadership battle | :20:46. | :20:49. | |
after Harold Macmillan resigned that gave us the political gambling | :20:49. | :20:56. | |
back. And the arrival of the high street bookie. Betting shops became | :20:56. | :21:01. | |
legal in 1961. That meant everyone could have bet. Before it was | :21:01. | :21:07. | |
restricted to the wealthiest. we bet on all sorts. Like the arts | :21:07. | :21:13. | |
that Eric Pickles would be spotted in a curry house during the Tory | :21:13. | :21:18. | |
conference. -- the odds. He posted this picture on Twitter of which | :21:18. | :21:24. | |
forced the bookies to pay up. Ken Clarke, falling asleep during the | :21:24. | :21:33. | |
Budget, got odds of 16 to one. John Major becoming Prime Minister 93 to | :21:33. | :21:38. | |
one. Screaming Lord Sutch backed himself to become Prime Minister at | :21:38. | :21:42. | |
15 million to one. What about the prospects of David Cameron holding | :21:42. | :21:52. | |
:21:52. | :21:53. | ||
on? Five to one. What about Ed Miliband? Five to four. You could | :21:53. | :21:59. | |
do was put a tenner on yourself to become Prime Minister. Justin | :22:00. | :22:05. | |
Tomlinson and Chris Kelly, the MP for Dudley South, where the two | :22:05. | :22:10. | |
gentlemen who had those bets. They are on the first rung towards | :22:10. | :22:18. | |
becoming Prime Minister. They have until 2038 to do it. At odds of | :22:18. | :22:23. | |
50,000 to one, that will be half a million quid a piece. What you | :22:23. | :22:30. | |
prefer? Courses of Paul -- politicians? Horses. Horses are | :22:30. | :22:35. | |
prettier. I picked out ciders. I pick the colours and I would not | :22:35. | :22:44. | |
pick blue. -- pick colours. When Tony and Cherie Blair were | :22:44. | :22:48. | |
expecting an addition to the family, someone asked us what odds it would | :22:48. | :22:54. | |
turn out to be an alien. personal favourite was whether | :22:54. | :22:57. | |
Boris Johnson would set fire to his hair with the Olympic torch was up | :22:57. | :23:03. | |
the odds were 66 to one. Alex Donohue from Ladbrooks is on the | :23:03. | :23:07. | |
Green. He has got a few odds up his sleeve ahead of the Lib Dem, Labour | :23:07. | :23:12. | |
and Tory conferences. What are the odds on the party leaders still | :23:12. | :23:16. | |
being in their jobs at the time of the election? The great news is | :23:16. | :23:20. | |
that they are all odds on to keep their jobs right until the next | :23:20. | :23:27. | |
election. Nick Clegg has the shortest odds not to have his job. | :23:27. | :23:33. | |
He is 5 to four. Those odds have shortened recently. If their | :23:33. | :23:36. | |
leaders do believe in them, they're all odds on to keep their jobs | :23:36. | :23:43. | |
until the next election. What about the favourite for the next Prime | :23:43. | :23:51. | |
Minister? It has to be Ed Miliband. Boris Johnson is 12 to one. After | :23:51. | :23:57. | |
the Olympics every mum wanted to back him to become an MP. Boris | :23:57. | :24:02. | |
Johnson for Prime Minister, it could cost the bookies a few quid I | :24:02. | :24:09. | |
imagine. Everyone will be watching that. If we look Boris Johnson | :24:09. | :24:14. | |
angling for a comeback, is it likely? We think it could be quite | :24:14. | :24:21. | |
likely. We are offering odds of two to one that he will be an MP in any | :24:21. | :24:31. | |
:24:31. | :24:32. | ||
walk anywhere in the country before an election. -- any water. Quite | :24:32. | :24:38. | |
short odds about Boris turning to politics, possibly at the highest | :24:38. | :24:44. | |
level. Very tempting for a flutter. I can see the Miliband brothers. | :24:44. | :24:49. | |
Perhaps they are patching up their differences. If you think they're | :24:49. | :24:56. | |
going to have on stage at conference, 20 to one. We have seen | :24:56. | :25:05. | |
it before. Will we see it again? 20 to one says they will. What about a | :25:05. | :25:10. | |
comeback from Tony Blair or Gordon Brown? Of the two of them, if | :25:10. | :25:17. | |
either of them, it is Tony Blair. Gordon Brown, you might as well | :25:17. | :25:23. | |
name your price. 200 to one foot stuck I would probably want to | :25:23. | :25:32. | |
stick another zero on that before I had a bet. -- one. What do that the | :25:32. | :25:39. | |
odds on the Nick Clegg charity song Getting to number one -- what about | :25:39. | :25:47. | |
the odds on the Nick Clegg charity song Getting to number one? | :25:48. | :25:54. | |
promised we would vote against any rising these. It was made with the | :25:54. | :25:59. | |
best of intentions. It is very catchy. The latest odds on that | :25:59. | :26:03. | |
becoming number one, is that more were less likely than Nick Clegg | :26:03. | :26:09. | |
stepping down as leader? The bigger odds are it gets to number one. | :26:09. | :26:15. | |
Maybe they might become connected at some point. That could be the | :26:15. | :26:20. | |
Christmas number one. I said that yesterday. I notice something | :26:20. | :26:25. | |
mischievous on your board. What about a new job or career changed | :26:25. | :26:34. | |
for Andrew Neil? 1000 to one for him to become Prime Minister. | :26:34. | :26:44. | |
:26:44. | :26:45. | ||
you very much. Rick Nye from Populus is with us now. How bloody | :26:45. | :26:49. | |
do you think the conference will be? I do not think it will be | :26:49. | :26:53. | |
bloody but it will be quite sombre. Nick Clegg needs to impress upon | :26:53. | :26:58. | |
his own party that they are making a difference by being part of the | :26:58. | :27:01. | |
coalition. He needs to be able to show they have different from the | :27:02. | :27:06. | |
Conservatives while, at the same time, showing that the coalition, | :27:06. | :27:10. | |
as an entity, can actually work. The worst place for him to | :27:10. | :27:14. | |
endeavour is being different from the Conservatives but in a way that | :27:14. | :27:19. | |
makes the coalition useless. If that is the case, why would anyone | :27:19. | :27:23. | |
vote for the Liberal Democrats? That means a vote for the coalition | :27:23. | :27:29. | |
government in that case. What about the Nick Clegg song? The idea he | :27:29. | :27:34. | |
could come out to say sorry at this stage... It some people were saying | :27:34. | :27:40. | |
he might not have his heart in continuing as Lisa B on 23rd team. | :27:40. | :27:48. | |
I do not think it is a bad thing. - - as the leader beyond 2013. It | :27:48. | :27:56. | |
says to his party, look, we were responsible for coming up with this | :27:56. | :28:00. | |
idiotic, unrealistic pledge in the first place and we are jointly | :28:00. | :28:05. | |
responsible for the consequences of that. Getting rid of me will not | :28:05. | :28:09. | |
solve that problem. Throwing it forward, if you think about the | :28:09. | :28:12. | |
policies they will be voting on to enter the next manifesto, they must | :28:12. | :28:17. | |
be realistic, otherwise the same thing will happen all over again if | :28:17. | :28:21. | |
they are in coalition with Labour or the Tories after the next | :28:21. | :28:26. | |
election. What to think that the chances of Nick Clegg as becoming | :28:26. | :28:34. | |
leader? -- what do you think? will be loads of leadership talk. | :28:34. | :28:40. | |
Maybe he should come in with a song at the next Tory conference. A lot | :28:40. | :28:45. | |
of these things in politics are about perception. That has an | :28:45. | :28:49. | |
unfortunate habit of becoming reality very quickly. He said sorry | :28:49. | :28:54. | |
about the fees. The Labour Party never ever said sorry. They hardly | :28:54. | :29:00. | |
said a word about that. As an anti- Clegg bandwagon, it suits. He will | :29:00. | :29:06. | |
probably face, as we get into 2013/2014, some serious contention | :29:06. | :29:12. | |
when it comes down to leadership. We have been trying to tread the | :29:12. | :29:18. | |
fine line between differentiating - - differentiating between the | :29:18. | :29:22. | |
Tories and being part of the coalition. Will he achieve that? | :29:22. | :29:26. | |
will be very difficult for him. There is momentum the other way | :29:26. | :29:31. | |
with Vince Cable and the social Democrat wing of the party moving | :29:31. | :29:39. | |
maul over to the left. Somehow, it is absolutely right. -- more over. | :29:39. | :29:43. | |
The Lib Dems need their unique selling point. They are not going | :29:43. | :29:48. | |
to get the old voters they lost to Labour back. Their bluff has been | :29:48. | :29:53. | |
called in all sorts of ways. That will be the trick for this | :29:53. | :30:02. | |
conference. They are in a no-man's land. They have got huge chunks of | :30:02. | :30:05. | |
their manifesto into government. It is almost as if none of that has | :30:05. | :30:11. | |
happened. It is about one policy. It is essentially about the one | :30:12. | :30:16. | |
policy. Picking up on what Mary said about coalition and Vince | :30:16. | :30:21. | |
Cable and the idea of him being leader and some sort of combination | :30:21. | :30:25. | |
with the Labour, interesting that Harriet Harman has not that on the | :30:25. | :30:29. | |
head. Our Labour feeling more confident in winning an outright | :30:29. | :30:34. | |
majority? It is difficult for the Labour Party to forgive parts of | :30:34. | :30:37. | |
the Liberal Democrat Party and compete for the votes of their | :30:37. | :30:42. | |
disaffected voters at the same time. Labour has to be tough. It is in a | :30:42. | :30:46. | |
position where it has to be tough. The Liberal Democrats have a | :30:46. | :30:49. | |
problem where, the people who do not mind the fact they went into | :30:49. | :30:53. | |
coalition with the Conservatives, are not actually that keen on | :30:53. | :30:56. | |
Liberal Democrat policies. The people who are attracted by Liberal | :30:56. | :31:00. | |
Democrat policies will never forgive them by having gone into | :31:00. | :31:04. | |
coalition with the Conservatives. The tuition fees figures are a | :31:04. | :31:09. | |
metaphor as much as a policy issue. What about Ed Miliband? You say | :31:09. | :31:13. | |
Labour can afford to feel confident at the moment but Ed Miliband is | :31:13. | :31:17. | |
still less popular than David Cameron. At the moment it is going | :31:17. | :31:21. | |
fine for Labour. There was a poll this week which put them 15 points | :31:21. | :31:26. | |
ahead. That is the biggest gap this Parliament. They do not Theale, I | :31:26. | :31:30. | |
think, as though the up doing anything. They are seeing things | :31:30. | :31:36. | |
being done to the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. -- they are | :31:36. | :31:43. | |
doing anything. It is about whether they use this conference to kick on. | :31:43. | :31:46. | |
Begin to flesh out what a Labour government might look like and what | :31:46. | :31:53. | |
Ed Miliband might do. Ed Miliband has made no policy announcements | :31:53. | :32:03. | |
:32:03. | :32:07. | ||
I think it will be much more addressing the issue you raise, the | :32:07. | :32:12. | |
image problem really and selling Ed Miliband a bit more if they can to | :32:12. | :32:16. | |
the electorate, and there is no doubt he's improved in his public | :32:16. | :32:20. | |
performances, but clearly, there's some ground to make up there. By | :32:20. | :32:24. | |
the way, just going back to the Nick Clegg thing, I think this song | :32:24. | :32:28. | |
will do misdemeanor a lot of good because it puts him into this | :32:28. | :32:30. | |
wonderful area where he doesn't look like a politician anymore. He | :32:30. | :32:35. | |
looks a bit off the wall. Is that because you're the leader of a | :32:35. | :32:41. | |
political party... I think it's a turning point for Nick Clegg. | :32:41. | :32:46. | |
get back to you on that. leadership of all the parties I | :32:46. | :32:51. | |
suppose you could say won't be an issue for Ed Miliband. No, he's | :32:51. | :32:55. | |
safe. If public I hadly he doesn't poll as good as David Cameron, what | :32:55. | :32:59. | |
about for David Cameron, there is no real threat, is there, to his | :32:59. | :33:02. | |
leadership? I don't think so I think people will make a lot about | :33:02. | :33:05. | |
Boris Johnson. He'll have his slot at the party conference because | :33:05. | :33:09. | |
there won't be much else to talk about. The media will want to talk | :33:09. | :33:12. | |
lots about Boris Johnson, but yes, the mechanics don't work anyway in | :33:12. | :33:16. | |
terms of how he gets back into Parliament and the circumstances | :33:16. | :33:22. | |
under which he would stand. Second of all, I just don't know the Boris | :33:22. | :33:25. | |
phenomenon is as potent outside of London or the media that tends to | :33:25. | :33:28. | |
be based outside of London as people think it is. What sort of | :33:28. | :33:34. | |
feel is it going to be then at the Conservative Party Conference? | :33:34. | :33:36. | |
think at the Conservative Party Conference they're looking for | :33:36. | :33:40. | |
David Cameron do lay out a vision, if you like. In a world where you | :33:40. | :33:43. | |
can't tell people how long the journey is going to take in terms | :33:43. | :33:48. | |
of getting to the other side of a recession and into recovery, what | :33:48. | :33:52. | |
you can do is tell them what the destination will be like when they | :33:52. | :33:57. | |
get there, and I think David Cameron has never really quite been | :33:57. | :34:01. | |
able to draw that out and sell that to people. He needs to crystallise | :34:01. | :34:05. | |
that but I think also going back to that kind of elitist image problem, | :34:06. | :34:10. | |
they have a huge issue there. Unless they begin to address - the | :34:10. | :34:13. | |
problem with somebody like Andy Coulson - say what you like about | :34:13. | :34:17. | |
him, but there was almost a - somebody who was grounded in terms | :34:17. | :34:20. | |
of advising the Prime Minister. I think that's what he's lacking at | :34:20. | :34:24. | |
the moment. The problem he's got about this elitist image - the | :34:24. | :34:28. | |
people advising him are from the same background. Of course all of | :34:28. | :34:35. | |
his Big Society stuff and things with a wider appeal to a wider sort | :34:35. | :34:38. | |
of tranche of the electorate have largely gone, so I think the | :34:38. | :34:43. | |
stopper is going to be the economy. On the economy, I mean, what is the | :34:43. | :34:47. | |
story they are going to tell? At the moment, it's still flat lining | :34:47. | :34:51. | |
no, growth. We don't know what the next figures are going to be. | :34:51. | :34:55. | |
They're possibly going to dump the debt target, possibly look at the | :34:55. | :35:00. | |
deficit target. How damaging is that to the Osborne-Cameron brand? | :35:00. | :35:05. | |
I think it's very damaging but at the moment there is a bit of an | :35:05. | :35:08. | |
establishment consensus behind them that the Governor of the Bank of | :35:08. | :35:10. | |
England, as you mentioned, has paved the way to dropping that very | :35:10. | :35:16. | |
important fiscal rule, and is kind of suggesting that if that happened, | :35:16. | :35:20. | |
it would be because of the economy and forces outside their control | :35:20. | :35:23. | |
rather than anything that they've done wrong, whereas, of course, | :35:23. | :35:30. | |
Labour will say, your plan A isn't working. What are you going to do | :35:30. | :35:33. | |
next? That's the stasis we're still at. Weeks of fun to be had in the | :35:33. | :35:35. | |
next month or so. Thank you very much. | :35:35. | :35:43. | |
Now, should England have its own thinks, so and they're holding | :35:43. | :35:44. | |
their annual conference in St Albans next week. They're the | :35:44. | :35:51. | |
English Democrats. I am joined from College Green by their leader Robin | :35:51. | :35:54. | |
Tilbrooke. Welcome. Thank you very much. What do you hope to achieve | :35:54. | :35:57. | |
with your conference? Obviously, we're launching our mayoral | :35:57. | :36:01. | |
candidates for the police commissioners. We're also starting | :36:01. | :36:05. | |
to prepare for the next County Council elections, and we're | :36:05. | :36:12. | |
launching an initiative to start progress towards having a great | :36:12. | :36:17. | |
charter for England in readiness for the 800th anniversary of the | :36:17. | :36:20. | |
Magna Carta. How successful do you really think you're going to be? | :36:20. | :36:27. | |
Well, I think we are making some progress as a party. We're building | :36:27. | :36:32. | |
up. In terms of numbers, in terms of organisation, in terms of where | :36:32. | :36:36. | |
we're standing, in terms of - one of the all-important things about | :36:36. | :36:41. | |
politics in this country, which is money, so we are make some progress. | :36:41. | :36:46. | |
I'm quite upbeat about it. You're upbeat. You say on your website | :36:46. | :36:50. | |
"For too long England has been shamelessly abused, compromised and | :36:50. | :36:53. | |
pillaged by successive Westminster administrations" - quite forceful | :36:53. | :36:57. | |
language. Given England is a pretty prosperous part of the union, what | :36:57. | :37:02. | |
do you mean by that? Well, if you think about it, there are parts of | :37:02. | :37:05. | |
England which are prosperous. There are plenty of parts of England that | :37:05. | :37:10. | |
are not at all prosperous, and yet we have a system where the British | :37:10. | :37:14. | |
political establishment through the Barnett formula give more money in | :37:14. | :37:18. | |
subsidies to rich parts of Scotland than poor parts of England, and the | :37:18. | :37:22. | |
same would be true of other parts of the United Kingdom. England | :37:22. | :37:26. | |
isn't currently represented at all in the political process, and so we | :37:26. | :37:31. | |
often get the raw end of the deal. You're seeing that with NHS cuts, | :37:31. | :37:35. | |
for example. You have to admit that that characterisation, even if some | :37:35. | :37:40. | |
people are sympathetic to it, given that the 101 candidates that you | :37:40. | :37:44. | |
put up for election in the May local election, not a single one | :37:44. | :37:48. | |
was elected, so they just don't see it the way you do. I think to be | :37:48. | :37:52. | |
fair, it's early days for our party. We have only been going since 2002. | :37:52. | :37:57. | |
We're - the fact that we were able to put up so many candidates is | :37:57. | :38:01. | |
quite an achievement for a party of our age. Of course, you have to | :38:01. | :38:05. | |
bear in mind that the establishment parties spent literally tens of | :38:05. | :38:09. | |
millions on that election, whereas our budget was tiny. I mean, you | :38:09. | :38:13. | |
know, outline how you would see an English Parliament working in | :38:13. | :38:18. | |
practise. Well, I think the issue is that we need not only an English | :38:18. | :38:23. | |
Parliament in terms of the representation function but we also | :38:23. | :38:29. | |
need an English First Minister in Government in order to put us on a | :38:29. | :38:32. | |
footing of any parity with England and Wales and Northern Ireland. We | :38:32. | :38:38. | |
would also need an English Secretary of State within the | :38:38. | :38:42. | |
Whitehall system. Otherwise, England is simply not going to be | :38:42. | :38:45. | |
properly represented in the whole process of Government. That means | :38:45. | :38:49. | |
we're simply not going to get the kind of resources spent on our | :38:49. | :38:52. | |
interests that are spent on the other nations of the United Kingdom. | :38:52. | :38:56. | |
Yes, and a lot of people will agree with you on that, and they'll | :38:56. | :38:59. | |
sympathise, so is it that your message isn't getting across? Why | :38:59. | :39:03. | |
isn't it getting across? Is it because it's obscured by some of | :39:03. | :39:06. | |
the more extreme rhetoric that surrounds the party? No, I don't | :39:06. | :39:11. | |
think, so and I don't think we are particularly extreme about what we | :39:11. | :39:14. | |
say, but the fact of the matter is opinion polls are showing that | :39:14. | :39:20. | |
people are getting our message. What we haven't yet achieved is | :39:20. | :39:23. | |
that the - the brand awareness of our party is not at the level that | :39:23. | :39:29. | |
we need it to be in order to start winning major elections. All right. | :39:29. | :39:33. | |
Thank you very much. Thank you very much. Now, MPs have | :39:33. | :39:36. | |
been on a break - another one - from Parliament since Tuesday to | :39:36. | :39:40. | |
give them a chance to iron their shirts, polish their shoes and | :39:40. | :39:43. | |
finish their speeches ahead of their party conference, but that | :39:43. | :39:47. | |
doesn't mean it has been a quiet week at Westminster. No. Here is | :39:47. | :39:52. | |
David Thompson with the week in 60 seconds. | :39:52. | :39:59. | |
It was back to the future time this week - GCSEs out, old-style O- | :39:59. | :40:02. | |
levels in as Education Secretary Michael Gove shook up exams for 14 | :40:03. | :40:06. | |
to 16-year-olds. We believe it is time to raise aspirations and | :40:06. | :40:10. | |
restore rigour to our examinations. Labour MP Paul Flynn got thrown out | :40:10. | :40:15. | |
of the Commons for using the L word that rhymes with "pants on fire." ". | :40:15. | :40:20. | |
But I have to insist on retaining my accusation of lying. Not in | :40:20. | :40:24. | |
their backyards. On Thursday, two London councils went all NIMBY on | :40:24. | :40:28. | |
the Government scheme to let people extend their homes without planning | :40:28. | :40:31. | |
permission and Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg proved sorry isn't the | :40:31. | :40:34. | |
hardest work. We shouldn't have made a promise we weren't | :40:34. | :40:38. | |
absolutely sure we could deliver. Only to find his apology over | :40:38. | :40:47. | |
broken tuition fees promises given the auto tune treatment by internet | :40:47. | :40:48. | |
pranksters. # I'm sorry | :40:48. | :40:54. | |
# I'm so, so, sorry # There is no easy way to say I'm | :40:54. | :40:59. | |
sorry # Do you get the feeling the Daily | :40:59. | :41:02. | |
Politics likes that tune from Nick Clegg? Must be the third time we | :41:02. | :41:08. | |
have played it at least. Let's look back at the week. Mary Riddell, | :41:08. | :41:13. | |
GCSE s on their way out - back to the future with E-BACCs - do you | :41:13. | :41:16. | |
think it will happen? I have a feeling it might, actually. I can't | :41:16. | :41:21. | |
see that - obviously, it doesn't even start - the first wave of | :41:21. | :41:25. | |
implementation - until 2015, but if there is a way - if head teachers | :41:25. | :41:30. | |
like it, if parents like it and so on, then I think if a Labour | :41:30. | :41:33. | |
Government did get in next time they'd probably have trouble | :41:33. | :41:43. | |
:41:43. | :41:44. | ||
reversing it. You do think that? think there is a sort of mood | :41:44. | :41:49. | |
that's going Michael Gove's way. I think there is a kind of view of | :41:49. | :41:54. | |
academies and even free schools that isn't the same as it was at | :41:54. | :41:58. | |
all last time... Andrew Adonis always said Labour should claim | :41:58. | :42:02. | |
that as their policy. In fairness, it was. It was he and Tony Blair | :42:02. | :42:08. | |
who brought it in. For this E-BACCs - just looking at the GCSE it seems | :42:08. | :42:13. | |
to me is wrong. If you're doing a big reform, make it a root and | :42:13. | :42:17. | |
branch one. The baccalaureate in France would go all the way through | :42:17. | :42:20. | |
to the A-level stage and so on. Also, I think there is a problem | :42:21. | :42:25. | |
with the kids who aren't passing five GCSEs at the moment. What's | :42:25. | :42:30. | |
going to happen to them? What about the delay? Looking at it from a | :42:30. | :42:34. | |
practical point of view, if it's not going to be brought in until | :42:34. | :42:38. | |
2015 and Michael Gove has made it very clear he thinks GCSEs are | :42:38. | :42:41. | |
discredited, why not bring it in straight away? It's one of the | :42:41. | :42:45. | |
great mysteries of Government, isn't it? If they want to put up | :42:45. | :42:48. | |
the price of petrol that happens the next day. They come in with a | :42:48. | :42:52. | |
policy that makes a bit of sense, it comes in half a decade away. As | :42:52. | :42:56. | |
Mary said, I think Labour and the Tories are actually closer than | :42:56. | :42:59. | |
some would quite like to admit frankly on this. Also, if you said | :42:59. | :43:05. | |
to most member of the public, "Do you want to make exams more | :43:05. | :43:09. | |
rigorous with more integrity" - I think most people will endorse that | :43:09. | :43:12. | |
there will be some people who will think it's harking back to the '50s, | :43:12. | :43:17. | |
but I think secretly if you could educate our kids in a better, more | :43:17. | :43:21. | |
thorough way, who is going to argue? What about planning? It was | :43:21. | :43:27. | |
an interesting story this week about having had a huge hurrah over | :43:27. | :43:31. | |
conservatories so people don't have to get permission, and Richmond has | :43:31. | :43:35. | |
said no. It was something out of The Thick of It, really. Here we | :43:35. | :43:38. | |
are in a coalition Government that thought they'd come out with | :43:38. | :43:43. | |
something that looked to be generous that - I don't know if it | :43:43. | :43:47. | |
was ever going to kick start the economy, but looked to be knocking | :43:47. | :43:51. | |
on the right doors, Richmond have come along and said not in our | :43:51. | :43:56. | |
backyard. And now there is two of them. It seemed to be such a hand- | :43:56. | :44:01. | |
fisted thing for Tories to do. Of course, the people who are | :44:01. | :44:07. | |
protesting are the people that - not in the nice, leafy suburbs who | :44:07. | :44:12. | |
don't want a monstrosity going up in next door's garden. The | :44:12. | :44:15. | |
Government aren't very Conservative when it comes to conserving things | :44:15. | :44:20. | |
in the green belt and bits of England... I don't - I don't know | :44:20. | :44:23. | |
if it's a U-turn, but it's again one of those policies that comes | :44:23. | :44:28. | |
down to the presentation. I think Bob in Arbroath who might live on | :44:28. | :44:31. | |
the 54th floor in a tower block won't be worried about whether or | :44:31. | :44:37. | |
not they're going to put an extension... Mary said it's | :44:37. | :44:43. | |
Conservative seats... Conservatives are going to worry if | :44:43. | :44:53. | |
:44:53. | :44:55. | ||
there is a free fall. It's going to make such a tiny difference.S. | :44:55. | :44:59. | |
the small stuff. Now they face double embarrassment of people not | :45:00. | :45:04. | |
wanting to do it. They're knocked out, I think, if | :45:04. | :45:07. | |
Richmond and this other one are doing so, then, yeah, it doesn't | :45:07. | :45:10. | |
bode very well. We'll watch it, wait and see. Earlier this | :45:10. | :45:16. | |
afternoon, the leader of UKIP gave the key-note speech at his party's | :45:16. | :45:20. | |
conference in Birmingham. In a moment I'll speak to Mr Farage. But | :45:20. | :45:30. | |
:45:30. | :45:36. | ||
first, here he is speaking about Having spent nearly 20 years of | :45:36. | :45:43. | |
hard work, sacrifice, and much mockery building UKIP into a | :45:43. | :45:46. | |
political brand in this country that is now connecting with | :45:46. | :45:51. | |
millions of ordinary men and women out there, you have my insurance I | :45:51. | :46:00. | |
am not going to sell this party short for any political gain. -- my | :46:00. | :46:04. | |
assurance. There is no way on earth I will do that. | :46:04. | :46:14. | |
:46:14. | :46:17. | ||
The only way we would consider the negotiation of any time -- kind at | :46:17. | :46:25. | |
all, was if a promise were made to give this country a fall, free and | :46:25. | :46:29. | |
fair recommend them - has never referendum to decide if we could be | :46:29. | :46:34. | |
members of the European Union or not. -- a fair referendum. Welcome | :46:34. | :46:39. | |
to the programme. You probably heard yourself a few seconds ago. | :46:39. | :46:44. | |
You are considering it. If those conditions were met and there were | :46:44. | :46:49. | |
that deal signed in blood to give a referendum, you would go for it. | :46:49. | :46:54. | |
Let's be clear what is happening. The Euro-sceptics in the Tory Party | :46:54. | :46:58. | |
are screaming at David Cameron same, Lib Dems will go off to Labour. | :46:58. | :47:02. | |
UKIP are at 10% of the polls and you must do a deal with them. They | :47:02. | :47:07. | |
are calling for a deal. I have said I will not do a deal that | :47:07. | :47:15. | |
compromises the party for short- term political game. -- gain. I | :47:15. | :47:19. | |
said we would be crazy not to considerate but we could not | :47:19. | :47:22. | |
negotiate anything until it absolutely knew that this country | :47:22. | :47:27. | |
was going to get the full, free and fair referendum on EU membership. | :47:27. | :47:31. | |
What conversations are you having with members of the Tory Party | :47:31. | :47:35. | |
along those sorts of lines? We're not having any conversations | :47:35. | :47:39. | |
formerly with the Tory Party whatsoever. We're having lots of | :47:39. | :47:43. | |
conversations with patriotic Euro- sceptics in the Conservative Party, | :47:43. | :47:47. | |
at all levels, who are finding it difficult to survive under the | :47:47. | :47:51. | |
leadership of David Cameron. Many of them hope and believe that David | :47:51. | :47:56. | |
Cameron will do the right thing and will respond to this treaty the | :47:56. | :48:03. | |
we're told we have to have. I would say, if David Cameron does not | :48:03. | :48:07. | |
deliver on and in/out referendum, what you will see his many more are | :48:07. | :48:13. | |
Euro-sceptics from the Conservative Party carrier Cross and joining | :48:13. | :48:21. | |
UKIP. -- coming across. Is it partly the problem with your party | :48:22. | :48:26. | |
bet you are characterised as the Euro-sceptic alternative to the | :48:26. | :48:31. | |
Conservatives? -- that you are. That is unfair. People | :48:31. | :48:35. | |
underestimate, particularly in the Midlands and the North, how many | :48:35. | :48:40. | |
older votes that UKIP takes. It appeals to the left and right of | :48:40. | :48:44. | |
the political spectrum. Looking at the opinion polls, the share of the | :48:44. | :48:51. | |
vote in terms of intention to vote, has travelled in the last two years. | :48:51. | :48:59. | |
They are beginning to connect with people. -- has trebled. That is | :48:59. | :49:04. | |
about how Britain should be governed as well as who. On that | :49:04. | :49:09. | |
basis, the deal makes perfect sense. If you can extract that pledge - | :49:09. | :49:12. | |
whatever it would look like - and not sure what you would want them | :49:12. | :49:16. | |
to do to keep to the cast-iron guarantee. You would get some seats | :49:16. | :49:22. | |
at Westminster. That may well happen. My focus at the moment is | :49:22. | :49:27. | |
on the police and crime Commission elections, the Corby by-election, | :49:27. | :49:32. | |
the council elections next year. This party is upbeat. We are | :49:32. | :49:37. | |
pushing forwards. The most likely way this country will get the right | :49:37. | :49:45. | |
referendum is if you pit becomes stronger. I think people -- UKIP | :49:45. | :49:54. | |
becomes stronger. We are not given a hope bite anyone in 1999 and | :49:54. | :50:01. | |
three of us got elected. In 2009, we came second, beating the | :50:01. | :50:10. | |
governing Labour Party of the day. The winners in 2009 was David | :50:10. | :50:16. | |
Cameron. He has broken his pledge. We can all see that the European | :50:16. | :50:26. | |
Union is turning into a state. I think we have every chance. What | :50:26. | :50:31. | |
percentage of the vote are you aiming for? That is the key. What | :50:31. | :50:38. | |
percentage IU aiming for in 2014? Up to win the Euro elections, | :50:38. | :50:45. | |
probably 27% would win. -- to win. That is you hope. What are you | :50:45. | :50:54. | |
going to say? This is not some pipe dream. We have been proved to be | :50:54. | :50:58. | |
right on this European election. Write about the eurozone. Right at | :50:58. | :51:04. | |
the cost of British Industry. We have been right. People know that. | :51:04. | :51:10. | |
What about the logo? You might be in favour of dumping the �logo? | :51:10. | :51:15. | |
That has been fantastic for our party. It showed people what we | :51:15. | :51:20. | |
stood for and has served as incredibly well. Lots of voters | :51:20. | :51:26. | |
under the age of 40 did not know there was a threat to the pound. | :51:26. | :51:31. | |
Perhaps we should move to a forward looking symbol of. I make one | :51:31. | :51:36. | |
promise. They are not going to do what the post of his stick with | :51:36. | :51:41. | |
insignia and got rid of something that worked very well for rubbish. | :51:41. | :51:48. | |
-- is stick with insignia. Her how big a threat is UKIP in terms of | :51:48. | :51:53. | |
worrying the Conservatives? Quite a big threat. He is on a roll. You | :51:53. | :51:59. | |
can understand why. There are an awful lot of malcontents, not any | :51:59. | :52:04. | |
outside the Conservative Party, but within it, he would have every | :52:04. | :52:11. | |
sympathy with that. The EU referendum is now common currency | :52:11. | :52:16. | |
as the talking point - not only for the Conservatives - but also for | :52:16. | :52:21. | |
the Labour Party. It might appear in both the main parties' | :52:21. | :52:26. | |
manifestos. It is conceivable. I think Nigel Farage might do really | :52:26. | :52:31. | |
well in the European elections. It is true that they translate their | :52:31. | :52:36. | |
in 2009. Where I think he is mistaken is there is a deal to be | :52:36. | :52:46. | |
:52:46. | :52:51. | ||
cut. -- they trounced Labour. There is plenty of gumption from within | :52:51. | :52:58. | |
his own party. It is great publicity for Nigel Farage and UKIP, | :52:58. | :53:00. | |
talk of Conservatives running scared and the rest of it. One | :53:01. | :53:04. | |
could argue the most likely way of getting a referendum would be | :53:04. | :53:09. | |
through the Conservatives and not UKIP. They're a bit like a bad | :53:09. | :53:15. | |
reality show. You think it will never come back and they do every | :53:15. | :53:18. | |
election. One of the last polls showed that UKIP were doing better | :53:18. | :53:22. | |
than the Lib Dems. They are a dividing party when it comes to | :53:22. | :53:26. | |
domestic politics. They have never had a Member of Parliament in | :53:26. | :53:30. | |
Westminster. I do not think they ever will. They will dilute the | :53:30. | :53:33. | |
Conservatives. They're looking for an absolute agreement from David | :53:34. | :53:39. | |
Cameron to say we're having a referendum. There is more chance | :53:39. | :53:44. | |
of... There is more chance of David Cameron getting in at the Met -- at | :53:44. | :53:52. | |
the next election. As we get closer to 2015, there is a real risk of | :53:52. | :53:58. | |
the Conservatives, if the Liberal Democrats have not built any more | :53:58. | :54:01. | |
support and UKIP is into double figures, they need to look at the | :54:01. | :54:06. | |
numbers and pink map what a a going to do at the next election if we | :54:06. | :54:16. | |
:54:16. | :54:20. | ||
need to have a coalition? -- and think, what are we going to do? | :54:20. | :54:24. | |
lot of people in the Conservative Party have been so uneasy about | :54:24. | :54:28. | |
coalitions. How you hold the coalition together on one hand and, | :54:28. | :54:33. | |
on the other hand, make yourself a coherent and electable Conservative | :54:33. | :54:39. | |
government of future, is a very difficult trick. Let's ask the big | :54:39. | :54:44. | |
question of the day. Up all politicians pants? Over to you, | :54:44. | :54:51. | |
Adam. A what you get the political man who has everything? How about | :54:51. | :54:55. | |
these political pants. They'll Y- fronts with politicians on them. | :54:55. | :55:01. | |
You have Ann Widdecombe, captain and a ring, Nick Clegg, the Iron | :55:01. | :55:07. | |
Lady and Boris Johnson, who is apparently the biggest seller. The | :55:07. | :55:14. | |
people who make those save their website has crashed 14 times | :55:14. | :55:20. | |
because so many people have been ordering them. This is Paul Hayes. | :55:20. | :55:26. | |
If you have stashed them in your attic, will you get any cash? | :55:26. | :55:31. | |
could be a good investment for the future. Boris Johnson might be the | :55:31. | :55:37. | |
market leader now. The ones that people do not buy now will be the | :55:37. | :55:43. | |
collectible as of the future. To get them signed will make them more | :55:43. | :55:52. | |
collectible. -- collectibles. A lot of political memorabilia of, | :55:52. | :55:57. | |
President Gorbachev and the Cold War. Beria's President Brezhnev. | :55:57. | :56:05. | |
That is worth about �60. -- there is President Brezhnev. This is the | :56:05. | :56:12. | |
2008 election of President Obama. This one is already very | :56:12. | :56:18. | |
collectible. I have seen things from the moon landings. Deveney | :56:18. | :56:26. | |
something to collect. -- definitely. A bottle of Gordon Brown beer. I | :56:26. | :56:31. | |
remember this at the Tory Party conference in 2009. A It is amazing | :56:31. | :56:38. | |
that it has not been drunk. -- it is amazing. People love to collect | :56:38. | :56:44. | |
beer mats and bottles and all that kind of thing. It is a great | :56:44. | :56:52. | |
collector book of the future. at this! A Labour Party diary. | :56:52. | :56:58. | |
is the coalition government with Winston Churchill. You have got | :56:58. | :57:01. | |
Lord Bevin and Clement Attlee in there. The nice thing about this | :57:01. | :57:07. | |
one is it is amused and in great condition. It is a collector's item | :57:07. | :57:13. | |
of the very important time. It is a bit empty. Wouldn't it be | :57:13. | :57:17. | |
marvellous to say, we went to the Houses of Parliament today and | :57:17. | :57:25. | |
talked about things? These up campaign badges. They date from | :57:25. | :57:30. | |
Nixon and President Al Gore. I remember that period - the 1990s. | :57:30. | :57:37. | |
People were a bit happier and had more cash. They cost about a tenner | :57:37. | :57:43. | |
each. Do you want to buy some? have some Obama ones from the | :57:43. | :57:47. | |
election. They are designed to be thrown away. They do not survive in | :57:47. | :57:52. | |
large numbers and are very collectible. We have saved the best | :57:52. | :57:58. | |
till last. That is prices, especially if it is full of tea. If | :57:58. | :58:04. | |
you get all the team to sign it, I can take it away. That is way above | :58:04. | :58:09. | |
my pay grade, decided if we're allowed to do that. How big is the | :58:09. | :58:14. | |
market for political memorabilia? The 19th century seems to be where | :58:14. | :58:20. | |
it is with Disraeli and Gladstone in this country. By the rarer items | :58:20. | :58:28. | |
- items at a design to be thrown away. -- items that are designed. | :58:29. | :58:34. | |
am off to Peckham market to see how much I can flog this for. Best of | :58:34. | :58:39. | |
luck. I do not think it will buy you lunch. Thanks to our guests. | :58:39. | :58:43. | |
You'll have to think about who you will like on your political pants. | :58:43. | :58:49. | |
The 1 o'clock News is starting over on BBC One. Andrew will be back | :58:49. | :58:54. |