27/09/2013 Daily Politics


27/09/2013

Jo Coburn is joined by journalists Polly Toynbee and Michael Brown to discuss political news, including a discussion on the latest climate change report from UN scientists.


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Good afternoon, welcome to the daily politics, it is almost certain that

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human activity is responsible for global warming says an international

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panel of scientist, despite temperatures barely rising for the

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past 15 year, can an increasingly sceptical public be persuaded?

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Prawns, a lettuce garnish and heaps of sauce sau, the ingredients for a

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Prawns, a lettuce garnish and heaps good relationship with big business,

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but is prawn cocktail off menu as Ed Miliband gets tough with bosses? Is

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our gas a electricity among the cheapest in Europe or the most

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expensive, we investigate whether we are really being ripped off by the

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energy companies. And we will look back over an eventful week at the

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seaside. All that in the next hour, with us

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for the programme are are two old hands here at Westminster, Polly

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Toynbee of the Guardian and mown. Welcome to the -- Michael Brown. Let

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us start with a story briefed to a couple of newspapers this morning,

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that is there are plans to make the couple of newspapers this morning,

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long-term unemployed do work if return for receiving Job Job Seekers

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Allowance, an announcement is expected to be made at the

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Conservative Party Conference next week, a poll suggests the policy

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would be overhemingly popular among voters.

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What do you say Polly? I am sure it will be popular. It the the sort of

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thing that sounds like it will make sense. It will be like the bedroom

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tax. You will get a turn round. The sense. It will be like the bedroom

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bedroom tax is unpopular, having started off popular, because if you

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have a large group of people, working unpaid, they are displacing

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other people, it turns out to be expensive. It is difficult to find

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them all job, and they are going to include people with serious mental

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problem, with serious physical problems, and I think we will get a

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lot of stories of people in a bad state of distress, being made to do

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very unsuitable work, I suspect public opinion will say we didn't

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mean those people, we didn't mean in that way, as ever it is one of those

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back of the envelope sounds great for conference policies but it won't

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work. Or is it is back of the enslope or is it's a progression of

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the welfare policies that have been set out by the Government? Yes,

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think it is. I think Polly is being unfair to the Government on this.

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There is no doubt it will get as she says, a huge cheer at the Tory party

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conference next yolk, I went help feeling I have heard this made by

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successive Governments made. You have? Whether anything will come of

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it, I am not sure. Polly is right, it is where you draw the line, there

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are people who are long-term unemployed who do have mental health

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problem, single parent families who are bringing up tiny children, will

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obviously be possibly worried about this, but I think there is no doubt

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that the Government is tapping into a ripped seam of public opinion.

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Michael Heseltine did this and he a ripped seam of public opinion.

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did it well. I supported it at time I think he call it Work Fair. It was

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popular but he paid people, he said, if you are working, you deserve to

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get more. They will say there is no money round. The trick is to make it

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an inseven sieve. That is where the Work Fair, that was based on make it

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pay to work. But I think, but one thing in the Government's defence is

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this, you do find that when benefits are withdrawn, or threatened to be

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withdrawn, a lot of people may well be on the black economy any way, and

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you do find that the number of claimants go down. Do you think

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there could be an incentive put into a policy like this, because you are

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right, people will say surely it is better to do something, than sit, I

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don't want to use George Osborne's analogy of sitting in the room with

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the blinds down, but sitting round not doing very much else. Of course

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it is S work experience is a good thing. It depend on whether they are

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doing things that are useful, and that will lead to work, and whether

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they are the right people who are being... But they should be

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reregarded. Otherwise they will, if over a long period of time, you

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know, you have a million people ng unpaid work, what does that do to

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the world of work? It it tips the balance, there are too many people

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working at free labour, they will displace real jobs. Do you think

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it's a sophisticated enough announcement, in terms of setting

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out what Polly is say, which is it does have to be work that could,

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that might lead to a job at the end of it, bear in mind the long-term

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unemployed is two years, out of work, that it would lead to

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something. It isn't just slave labour as some would call it. I hope

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something. It isn't just slave the Government when it makes an

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announcement like this as a party conference, it is just the headline,

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it will get the crowd pleasing delegates on their feet. I do hope

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that behind it there has been some work done. Wouldn't count on it!

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Sometimes Government make announce and we nev hear about them

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thereafter. Who knows where it will go. It might well be something that

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the Government will announce as something that could be fleshed

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fourth the next manifesto. There is no doubt that the general public are

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on the Government's side on this. Thank you. Scientists are on the

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have today published the

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first part of their fifth assessment report, setting out the current

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state of scientific knowledge about climate change. The panel's fourth

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state of scientific knowledge about report which came out in 2007 was

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undermined by incorrect projection, about how quickly glaciers were

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melt, and controversy over the apparent exclusion of scientists who

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challenge the mainstream consensus. But the IPCC insists it has learned

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lessons. Scientists are more confident than

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ever that climate change is happening, and that people are

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largely to blame. They say there is a 95% chance that human activity is

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responsible for more than half of the observed changes since the

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1950s. The culprit St the emission of

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greenhouse gas. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is

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40 hers higher than in the preindustrial era. The report says

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that global surface temperatures will increase by the end of this

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century. On almost all scenarios, the average

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century. temperature will rise by more than

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1.5 degrees centigrade relative to the period 1850-1900. If emissions

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continue as a high rate that is likely to exceed 2 degrees. However,

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the expected range of temperature increase this century is lower than

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in the previous report. The IPCC now suggests it will be

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between 0.3, and 4.8 degrees. That compares with a range of

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1.1-6.4 degrees in the fourth assessment. This shift follows an

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observed and unpredicted hiatus in at fer Mick warming since the 90s.

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It could be that more excess energy is being absorbed by the ocean, and

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on sea-level rise the IPCC is more pessimistic than before. The report

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says they will go up between 26 centimetres and 82 centimetres by

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the turn of the century. A hiring range than previously

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thought. Well, with us now is the

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Conservative peer Matt Ridley and the climate change minister Greg

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Barker. Welcome to the programme. Matt Ridley. Scientists are more

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certain than ever about climate change, we have to act to limit the

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effects? What this report is saying is that both extremes were wrong.

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People who say it is not happening are clearly wrong but people who say

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we are in for calf frof is wrong. It are clearly wrong but people who say

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has lower the range of likely projections, to about one to 2.5

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degrees over this century, most of which will be beneficial. It will be

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70 years before we see any harm from climate change, and we are seeing a

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lots of harm from climate policy, so I think, the models have clearly got

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things wrong over the last 20, 30 year, they didn't predict this

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pause, or that climate change would be as slow as it has, and they have

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to be revisited. You do accept that climate change is

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happening, and they are pretty certain humans are to blame? What

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they say is that more than half of the climate change since 1950 is

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man-made, and I think virtually everybody I know on the sceptical

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side as well as on the alarmist side accepts that. I do and have all

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along. Enyou say climate change policies are doing more harm, are

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you saying it is better to live with the consequences of climate change

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than to take policies that will do something to mitigate them? The

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consensus view is up to 2 degrees you don't see net harm to the

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economy or the ecology, because you get longer growing season, you get

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fewer winter death, more precipitation so it isn't going to

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come into play until our great grandchildren. It is worth taking

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the policies before harm occurs, what do you say Polly, because they

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have been wrong and the rate of temperature increase is not as fast

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as they did first think it was going to be, is it worth taking action is

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now It is a small change, they have sightly changed the range, but I

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mean the catastrophic is the main, you know, is the main part of it,

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and what they are predicting. It could be less or more, 70 years is a

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short time. I have young grandchildren, that is not very

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long. If you look at what they are projecting for Britain, if the Gulf

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Stream moves away, instead of being a temperate moderate climate, we

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could be cold, we could be sublingt subjected, the idea ewe will have a

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longer growing season, that is not for Britain, not if the Gulf Stream

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longer growing season, that is not moves, which it may. When you look

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longer growing season, that is not at risk you were a chairman of a

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company, Northern Rock, you looked at risk, you took the little bit

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that said there was no risk and did nothing about the enormous bit that

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said there was. That is shot to the way the look at this. To spend more

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on becoming self-sufficient on energy is not a huge price to pay,

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to counter the very large enormous and more convincing risk of

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something catastrophic. I don't know about you and risk assessment, but

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so far your record has not been great. Are you complacent. What the

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financial crisis teach us is we should not follow financial models

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blindly. That is what happens in the financial crisis, everybody was

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following the models rather than really. -- reality. We find the

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models are wrong and they have been wrong for 20 years: You were taking

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your owned a vice. As for the crisis, the cost of these policy, we

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are doubling people's energy bills, we are killing 200,000 people a year

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by raising food price, the policies are not without enormous pain to the

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here and now. Nothing like the proportion of pain that is predicted

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by the majority of scientists as being 95% likely. That is not true.

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The 95%, remember, is about the fact that there has been more than half

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of the warming since 1950, that was caused by mankind.

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It is a very small probability of catastrophe. If you read the report

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it says the amount of snow and ice as demiles an houred and ocean

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warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system,

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that is where a lot of the climate change is being absorbed, you are

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storing up massive problems for the future. That is not the case... They

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are saying that is the case in terms of the sea-levels and the oceans are

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warming, Sea-level is rising 3 millimetres a year, there is no

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acceleration. That is a foot per century. They project a foot to two

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feet. The risk is remote. Very very few scientists they the Gulf Stream

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is likely to move. Can I bring Greg Barker in, because you are just

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costing the population with policies that aren't necessary according to

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Matt. Let us be clear about one thing you said about Northern Rock.

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It wasn't us who were responsible, it was the chairman and the

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directors the of Northern Rock and the failed banks who were

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responsible. But we are talking about people who have a clear view

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on how you react to risk and how you manage risk in the face of evidence

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and expert advice, I think that is clearly relevant, but what we have

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to do is take seriously that 259 of the world's ing climate scientist

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from 39 different nation, from the most respected institution, have a

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very clear message that climate change is very real, that human

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activity is in large part responsible for it, unless we change

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activity is in large part our way, we will see not just

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warming, but extreme weather events, heat wave, rising sea-level, melting

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glaciers they will have a massive effect on people. Even if, I want

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you to answer that point directly and particularly when you said there

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could be advantages at the moment in terms of your example of the longer

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growing season, but not for -- parts of the world. There is plenty of

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calculation by leading sin tis, here is another report which I think I

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the minister should reed. 47 leading sin tests are written it. It comes

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to the opposite conclusion, it is launched today also. 47 important

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scientists have launched it. Can I finish the point. In terms of things

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like sea-level rise and so on, we are seeing effects of warming, of

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course we are, nobody is is denying that, the question is are we seeing

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an acceleration to SATS frof and no. We have seen a slow down, that has

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been acknowledged by the IPCC. They have cut back their model, they are

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saying climate Rons is 1-2 upon.5 degrees. That produces net benefits.

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Not in a small island state where we are front sea rise. Respond to this,

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it is the crux of the matter, isn't it, there is an agreement that

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it is the crux of the matter, isn't climate change is happening... And

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that. Sceptics are moving to the fact that gradually there is an

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increasingly solid consensus, this isn't a fantasy, it is real. The

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question is, how we respond to it. That is... It is milder than it was.

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Don't talk over each other. Anything over two degrees is dangerous, and

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we have to manage that. It will impact not just us but people in

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Africa, Asia, and that all has knock on vents -- effects on us on the

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economy, migration, it's a real danger. I am going to, I will let

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you, I am going to bring in Polly Toynbee to say the problem is to

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some extent there has been a loss of cred bility because of some of the

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some extent there has been a loss of things that happened ahead of the

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last report, and the public is generally sceptical. Yes, one group

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of scientists were caught behaving badly, but it remains the case that

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the weight of scientific opinion... They could be wrong and the sun

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might not rise tomorrow. But on the whole, anybody looking at risks,

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anybody in charge, as you are, of this area of policy, has to look at

:16:29.:16:35.

probability. On the other hand, we say, why shouldn't we become

:16:35.:16:38.

self-sufficient in energy anyway? That would be a good thing. Most of

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the sceptics like yourself are actually investors in the old carbon

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fuels. Aid Davey says people are being misinformed by people with

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vested interests. They are blocking climate change policies. Well, there

:16:54.:16:57.

are people with vested interests in renewable energy as well. But is

:16:57.:17:05.

that the recent? There are people with vested interests on all sides.

:17:05.:17:09.

I have actually been banging the drum for shale gas -- coal, and

:17:09.:17:20.

Charlotte -- shale gas is a bigger threat to that. But the government

:17:20.:17:25.

does not speak with a unified voice on the subject. George Osborne said

:17:25.:17:30.

he does not want Britain to go faster than other countries in

:17:30.:17:34.

cutting emissions. John Hayes was opposed as energy minister to wind

:17:34.:17:38.

farms. Owen Paterson, the climate change minister, says the measures

:17:38.:17:40.

taken to combat climate change may change minister, says the measures

:17:40.:17:48.

cause more damage than they prevent. We have taken radical steps that the

:17:48.:17:53.

first green investment bank that is capitalising private sector

:17:53.:17:58.

investment into green growth sectors across the economy, if you look at

:17:59.:18:04.

the Greendale -- green reforms of the energy markets, we now have the

:18:05.:18:11.

world's largest offshore industry. So were you crossed with those

:18:11.:18:14.

ministers when they spoke against pushing faster with green policies?

:18:14.:18:20.

Well, we have got a record. We don't need to talk about what we are going

:18:20.:18:23.

to do . We have a record of solid action, and we need other countries

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to catch up with Britain. We have international leadership on this. We

:18:28.:18:33.

need the rest of the world to pick up the pace. Has David Cameron

:18:33.:18:36.

really had the greenest government ever? I hope not. The problem the

:18:36.:18:43.

government has got in my view is that there is a danger that climate

:18:43.:18:48.

change policies may be doing as much damage to British industry as

:18:48.:18:51.

climate change. What is the evidence for it? When you put additional

:18:51.:18:58.

costs on industry, I used to represent a steel company, and all

:18:58.:19:03.

the time that you add to the costs of industry like the steel industry,

:19:03.:19:09.

you export jobs to the third World. And all the time that you are

:19:09.:19:13.

dealing with climate change in this country, I don't know what

:19:13.:19:17.

percentage of greenhouse gases Britain is responsible for, but

:19:17.:19:20.

compared to Indonesia, China, India and the United States, until we

:19:20.:19:26.

start making sure that those countries owed by the kind of rules

:19:26.:19:30.

we have to obey, steel jobs go to Indonesia. The current most

:19:30.:19:38.

successful manufacturing sector in Europe is Germany, and they have the

:19:38.:19:44.

highest level of renewable energy. Last year, the CBI tells us that the

:19:44.:19:49.

low carbon goods and services sector accounted for a third of all growth

:19:49.:19:52.

in the economy and was our biggest export. I take your point on Germany

:19:52.:19:57.

will stop my family, apart from me, export. I take your point on Germany

:19:57.:20:03.

live there. But my sister says that since Angela Merkel closed down the

:20:03.:20:09.

power plants, they are importing their nuclear power and Germany is

:20:09.:20:14.

building coal plants. They have much more renewable energy than we do.

:20:14.:20:20.

They are crucifying themselves on the cost of energy. If you don't

:20:20.:20:23.

think energy costs are important, look at what is happening in

:20:23.:20:26.

America, where, by going for shale gas, they have cut the cost of

:20:26.:20:31.

energy. That is causing manufacturing industries to move to

:20:31.:20:36.

America wholesale from this country. I was at a fracking site in Virginia

:20:36.:20:43.

yesterday. That is something -- somewhere where a global move to gas

:20:43.:20:48.

is a good thing. The worst problem this government has is tied up with

:20:48.:20:53.

what Ed Miliband said in his speech the other day. The public perceives

:20:53.:20:57.

policies to deal with climate change as putting up their bills, and if we

:20:57.:21:02.

don't carry the public with us on the cost of energy, we used the

:21:02.:21:06.

argument. B the average family Bill is far too high. Last year, it cost

:21:06.:21:14.

£9 to support onshore wind. £9 out of £1300, the average bill. We have

:21:14.:21:19.

to be realistic in analysing what is driving up the cost of family

:21:19.:21:23.

bills. Overwhelmingly, it is not government policy, it is the cost of

:21:23.:21:30.

fossil fuels. What would it take to change your mind? Evidence. I have

:21:30.:21:36.

always been driven by empirical data. Very selective data. Body five

:21:36.:21:45.

years ago, when I was an economist, I was convinced that this was a

:21:45.:21:51.

dangerous thing. The more I looked into it, the dodgier the data

:21:51.:21:52.

looked. The wealth of data that into it, the dodgier the data

:21:53.:21:58.

comes out today says that climate change has happened, which we all

:21:58.:22:02.

accept, and that we are in for a mild warning for the next -- a mild

:22:02.:22:09.

warming for the next 70 years. All the public has seen for the last few

:22:09.:22:13.

years is Italy cold winters. What can be done to convince people more

:22:13.:22:20.

that it is worth paying something now in the way that Greg Barker has

:22:20.:22:25.

set out, to avoid the arguable -- arguable catastrophe of the future?

:22:25.:22:30.

When people realised the risk with the Gulf stream, that we will not be

:22:30.:22:33.

growing olive trees in this country, I think people are

:22:33.:22:39.

beginning to see far more dramatic weather systems around the world and

:22:39.:22:42.

they are taking that on board. There is no evidence for that, Polly. Your

:22:42.:22:50.

idea of evidence is the 5% of the 95% of world scientists who say one

:22:50.:22:55.

thing. You were just quoting a minority view on Gulf Stream 's. But

:22:55.:23:01.

if one is in charge, as you work, of a large company, you have to look at

:23:01.:23:06.

the risk of fraud probability. The probability is not certain that the

:23:06.:23:09.

world scientists are right, in which case you have to try and mitigate

:23:09.:23:13.

what might be an absolute catastrophe will stop not certain,

:23:13.:23:19.

but might be. Let's take it in pure figures terms. There are more

:23:19.:23:25.

scientists who are warning about catastrophe than there are

:23:26.:23:31.

scientists who aren't. You don't know that for sure. Seriously. The

:23:31.:23:40.

95% are people who say that climate change is affected by humans. I am

:23:40.:23:45.

one of them. Then what is your problem? I have sat around a table

:23:45.:23:51.

with all the other countries from Russia to the USA, China and Japan,

:23:51.:23:56.

all agreed that climate change was real and happening. So do I. Agreed.

:23:56.:24:03.

And we need to come up with an effective response. Every major

:24:03.:24:11.

economy. I have to finish it there. Now, the centrepiece of Ed

:24:11.:24:13.

Miliband's conference speech on Now, the centrepiece of Ed

:24:13.:24:16.

Wednesday was of course that pledge that an incoming Labour government

:24:16.:24:19.

would freeze energy prices until the end of 2017. But if you were

:24:19.:24:24.

watching Wednesday's programme, and I hope you were, you might have

:24:24.:24:28.

heard Andrew asked this question of labour's Stephen Twigg. If the

:24:28.:24:33.

energy market in Britain is as dysfunctional as your parties claim

:24:33.:24:37.

yet to be, why does Britain have some of the lowest gas and

:24:37.:24:41.

electricity prices in Europe? Now, Andrew's question was based on

:24:41.:24:46.

figures from Ofgem, as you can see on this graph of domestic gas

:24:46.:24:52.

prices. Britain's is almost the cheapest, but a viewer wrote in to

:24:52.:24:55.

save this comparison is misleading. He says the final price consumers

:24:55.:24:57.

pay includes government taxes, which He says the final price consumers

:24:57.:25:01.

he says makes up almost half of the final energy price in some

:25:01.:25:06.

countries. He claims that if you look at the cost without government

:25:06.:25:07.

taxes, UK prices don't look as look at the cost without government

:25:07.:25:12.

competitive. So what is the truth? Professor Jim Watson is from the UK

:25:12.:25:18.

energy research Centre. Have we got cheap gas and electricity, or

:25:18.:25:22.

haven't we 's we have if you look at most of the comparisons. You have

:25:22.:25:27.

quoted Ofgem's figures, and European figures show we are towards the

:25:28.:25:31.

bottom end of the range, but your viewer is right that in some

:25:31.:25:35.

countries, the proportion of tax is much lower than here. Here, we have

:25:35.:25:47.

5% VAT. So when we are comparing prices, you have got to compare like

:25:47.:25:51.

with like. If we look at other countries in Europe, should we use

:25:51.:25:55.

the end price to the consumer, which includes taxes, or not? You should

:25:55.:26:00.

include, but it is important to break down the bill and make the

:26:00.:26:03.

comparison knowing what the constituents of the bill are. How

:26:04.:26:07.

much is coming from the cost of wholesale energy, how much is coming

:26:07.:26:11.

from the wires and pipes, how much is billing and how much is taxation?

:26:11.:26:16.

Countries take very different approaches, and they are all at

:26:16.:26:20.

different places. In the UK, we are about to go into a major investment

:26:20.:26:24.

phase. Other countries may not be in that place will stop as long as we

:26:24.:26:28.

have transparency of what makes up the bills, you can discuss whether

:26:28.:26:32.

the UK is competitive will stop so it is not worthwhile to compare

:26:32.:26:37.

pre-tax costs between countries? Well, the geography matters, so if

:26:37.:26:41.

you did that, you would have to compare Norway, which has a lot of

:26:41.:26:45.

hydro, and those stations were built along time ago, so they are not

:26:45.:26:49.

paying those costs of any more, compared to a country like the UK

:26:49.:26:53.

were recently, we have built a lot of gas-fired power stations. You

:26:53.:26:56.

would have to take account of those differences. The reason for doing

:26:56.:27:02.

this, of course, is to find out whether our prices are competitive.

:27:02.:27:06.

Are we being ripped off, in other words. How do you do that most

:27:06.:27:12.

effectively? Analysing them in comparison with other countries is a

:27:12.:27:14.

good start. Many countries are exposed to very similar prices. The

:27:14.:27:20.

gas prices that feed through into our bills are regional. Coal prices

:27:20.:27:27.

are similar, and so on. But you have to take into account particular

:27:27.:27:32.

circumstances so regulators and the government have to look at how

:27:32.:27:36.

competitive the market is and look at the difference between the costs

:27:36.:27:40.

of the energy that our energy companies by on the world markets,

:27:40.:27:42.

of the energy that our energy and what happens to the final bill.

:27:42.:27:46.

Recently, the costs of the bill have been going up much faster than the

:27:46.:27:48.

Recently, the costs of the bill have costs of the energy going in. I

:27:48.:27:53.

looked at a breakdown of the bill on Wednesday, and there are lots of

:27:53.:27:57.

different things in there over and above what you pay for your energy.

:27:57.:28:03.

There are. There are distribution network costs, there are the costs

:28:03.:28:08.

of the people who bill you, and then there are the taxes. You have to

:28:08.:28:12.

disentangle a lot. But there is a case for looking at the UK market,

:28:12.:28:16.

because we have these big six companies, and I think the market is

:28:16.:28:20.

not working as well as it could. It is hard for newer companies to come

:28:20.:28:24.

in and start competing when the market is not transparent. That

:28:24.:28:28.

compared to other countries in Europe, it is much more competitive

:28:28.:28:32.

than countries where you sometimes have only one state owned provider.

:28:32.:28:36.

There, it is even harder to see if you are getting value for money.

:28:36.:28:44.

Like France? Yes, their provider is a player in the UK as well and it is

:28:44.:28:46.

mainly owned by the French state and a player in the UK as well and it is

:28:46.:28:50.

they are dominant. In that situation, which the UK used to have

:28:50.:28:55.

before the 1990s, it is difficult for a regulator to know what is

:28:55.:29:00.

going on inside their accounting, because there is no competition.

:29:00.:29:03.

Michael Brown, we are not being ripped off, are we? Well, I don't

:29:04.:29:09.

think the consumer sees it that way. The consumer says, here is the price

:29:09.:29:13.

when a particular government came into power. The Labour Party are

:29:13.:29:18.

quoting that it was about £1000 three and a half years ago and it is

:29:18.:29:21.

quoting that it was about £1000 now more. So the voter looks at a

:29:21.:29:25.

bill on year and on the following year, and when there is a spike in

:29:25.:29:30.

price, the energy company has put the bills up. When the price comes

:29:30.:29:35.

down, there is no reduction. The voter simply sees a bill from last

:29:35.:29:41.

year and this year. And they have gone up. Polly, when you look at

:29:41.:29:45.

those comparisons and you have the bare fact in front of you, it does

:29:45.:29:51.

not seem as bad. But is it worth looking at other countries when we

:29:51.:29:57.

know that bills keep going up? Gulf You have a dysfunctional market,

:29:57.:30:03.

where 98% is by six big company, it is also practically impossible and

:30:03.:30:07.

Ofgem hasn't done this well to analyse what they are doing and

:30:07.:30:10.

where their profits are coming from. They are making £4 billion a year

:30:10.:30:14.

profit, while prices have been going up 9% a year. Now, they generate the

:30:14.:30:20.

electricity horizontal, they generate it, sell it to

:30:20.:30:24.

themselves... That is the problem for new suppliers. That is why you

:30:24.:30:29.

need to brake it up. The idea what Ed Miliband is suggesting is some

:30:29.:30:36.

kind of socialism, he is going the other way, we need to fragment it

:30:36.:30:40.

more to have more effective competition. A lot of the utilities

:30:40.:30:46.

were sold very badly, in Margaret Thatcher's day and left these very

:30:46.:30:50.

big companies, we need more smaller ones.

:30:50.:30:52.

Thank you. Now what do you, what you get, you

:30:52.:30:57.

Thank you. take prawn, Marie Rose sauce,

:30:57.:31:01.

lettuce, a political party and an extra helping of schmooze, I am

:31:01.:31:06.

talking of the prawn cocktail offensive. Made famous by Labour in

:31:06.:31:12.

the '90s. It was a strategy, orchestrated by former Labour leader

:31:12.:31:15.

John Smith who was mocked in the media, for cosying up to big

:31:15.:31:19.

business in opposition. But although it was derided by journalists and

:31:19.:31:23.

the Tory, the plan to improve relations with business seemed to

:31:23.:31:28.

work. So much so, that by the time Tony Blair became Prime Minister in

:31:28.:31:32.

1997, Labour had wooed bosses to such an extent that they were able

:31:32.:31:37.

to introduce a windfall tax on the privatised utilities without

:31:38.:31:40.

ruffling too many feathers. But after a week in which business

:31:40.:31:43.

organisations have queued up to criticise the party, it could take

:31:43.:31:47.

more than a few of these and here we r we have four beautifully presented

:31:47.:31:52.

prawn cocktail. There is no cutlery, so you have, I will spill it. You

:31:52.:31:59.

can look at them and imagine, go back in Labour's time, a few year,

:31:59.:32:03.

any way few of these to get business back on side. Does it matter? We are

:32:03.:32:07.

joined from Hull by the former chairman of Northern Foods Lord

:32:07.:32:10.

Haskins, ho was a Labour peer but sits in the Lords as a

:32:10.:32:16.

cross-bencher. Welcome to the programme. Whied did Labour make

:32:16.:32:21.

such huge efforts to get business on side? They had a record of not

:32:21.:32:24.

having good relations with business for many years before, particularly

:32:24.:32:27.

with the price controls and all the stuff that went on in the 70s under

:32:27.:32:33.

my friend Roy hattersly, it was clear the good will of business is

:32:33.:32:38.

good for assurance in the Stock Markets, and that was what we set

:32:38.:32:43.

out to achieve and did. Is it different now? Is it as nose have

:32:43.:32:48.

big business on side? I think so. One of the problems in those days is

:32:48.:32:52.

both sides have lost public credibility. The politicians have

:32:52.:32:56.

lot lost a bit and business has because of the salaries, and the

:32:56.:33:00.

banks and that sort of stuff. It still means that business is

:33:00.:33:05.

critical to the running of the economy, probably more so, and

:33:05.:33:08.

therefore, you may not like what is going on, but you jolly well work

:33:08.:33:12.

with them and live with them. What to you Mick of Ed Miliband's

:33:12.:33:16.

announcement this week, to freeze energy prices for two months The

:33:16.:33:22.

decision itself is a flawed one, because price freezes, in my view,

:33:22.:33:27.

never work, they have unintended consequence, for example, I am here

:33:27.:33:29.

never work, they have unintended in the hum berks we are trying to

:33:29.:33:33.

coke -- Humber, we are trying to coax energy companies to come here

:33:33.:33:38.

and invest. If those companies feel that the government is going to play

:33:38.:33:43.

round with markets, in the way this appears to be happening, and in the

:33:43.:33:46.

way politicians have done over the whole energy policy generally,

:33:46.:33:50.

people get reluctant to invest. We must get some degree of certainty, a

:33:50.:33:54.

lot of the problems you have mentioned should be dealt with by

:33:54.:33:57.

either the regulator, or the monopolies commission, a price

:33:57.:34:01.

freeze won't help resolve either of the problems mentioned. Stay with

:34:01.:34:07.

us, but that is the problem, you could have the price freeze for 20

:34:07.:34:12.

months after after that you are in the same situation as before? They

:34:12.:34:15.

say it's a temporary freeze, they are not saying it's a perm innocent

:34:15.:34:21.

price control mechanism. It is temporary while they discombobulate

:34:21.:34:23.

the companies and force them to temporary while they discombobulate

:34:23.:34:27.

create a better market, allowing others to come in, then they let the

:34:27.:34:31.

competition and market rip, hoping you have a healthier one, I think

:34:31.:34:35.

that is not a bad strategy. If they were going to be announcing

:34:35.:34:40.

permanent price controls but Ofgem has their eye on them and the energy

:34:40.:34:43.

market has worked with some understanding, they have bidding to

:34:43.:34:52.

get from 2030 to 200040 price fixed, so prices in the energy market and

:34:52.:34:55.

the government, that sort of trilateral agreement is going to be

:34:55.:35:02.

there. Is the Labour Party looking anti-business? A little bit. I think

:35:02.:35:07.

there is no doubt about that. You could argue that the Blair

:35:07.:35:10.

government cosied up to business rather too much, and rather admired

:35:10.:35:15.

some of the shortcomings of business which we now disapprove of. I think

:35:15.:35:20.

the Labour Party has to be very careful that it doesn't appear to be

:35:20.:35:25.

having a go just for the sake of it, because of issues which are nothing

:35:25.:35:29.

to do with energy, the fact that business people are considered to be

:35:29.:35:33.

fat cats, I am sure they are, that shouldn't be a reason for having an

:35:33.:35:35.

fat cats, I am sure they are, that energy freeze, if as Polly says

:35:36.:35:40.

there is going to be a new policy, I don't see how an energy freeze is

:35:40.:35:43.

going to help make that policy. That will take several years to develop,

:35:43.:35:47.

if we have one. In the meanwhile, I don't want all the potential invest

:35:47.:35:52.

Norse my part of the world -- investors in my part of the world

:35:52.:35:56.

waiting for what will come out. What do you think will be the

:35:56.:35:58.

consequences for your region, do you think that Ed Miliband is at risk of

:35:58.:36:03.

undoing much of the good work as you see et, that Labour had done with

:36:03.:36:04.

undoing much of the good work as you business, even if they cosiesed --

:36:05.:36:11.

cosied up too much? I hope not. I talk to a lot of the Labour MPs and

:36:11.:36:15.

I think they understand the importance of working with big

:36:15.:36:21.

investors, but these signs don't look very good. They are populist

:36:21.:36:25.

investors, but these signs don't and I think probably business

:36:25.:36:29.

dismiss them as being satisfying the party member, rather than actually

:36:29.:36:32.

dealing with the fundamental issues of the economy. What do you think,

:36:32.:36:37.

ho the Tories going to respond to in in whatever your view is, about the

:36:37.:36:42.

price freeze and the so-called land grab he proposed for developers who

:36:42.:36:46.

don't start building when they own grab he proposed for developers who

:36:46.:36:50.

the land, what will the Tories say about the risk of looking as if they

:36:50.:36:55.

are on the side of big business invested interests. I suspect if

:36:55.:37:02.

there are price rises, the first thing that any Government Energy

:37:02.:37:06.

Minister will say, Greg Barker or any of his colleagues will say this

:37:06.:37:11.

is the energy company's preparing for a Labour government. While we

:37:11.:37:15.

would love to do something about that we can't. You have a Fays of

:37:15.:37:19.

seeing there is going to be a spike in energy price before the

:37:19.:37:26.

glenningion, but in general terms, I think that while technically

:37:26.:37:30.

everything that Lord Haskins has said, I completely agree with, I

:37:30.:37:33.

have a suspicion when it comes to the ordinary voter, not just Labour

:37:33.:37:38.

voters, Tory midlet class, the squeezed middle that Ed Miliband is

:37:38.:37:43.

after, I suspect that he is on the side of the Angel, where Tony Blair

:37:43.:37:48.

and Peter Mandelson are at ing ing Ed Miliband. I suspect he won't have

:37:48.:37:53.

sleepless nights, in the eyes of the voter there's is a trawl of votes to

:37:53.:37:57.

be Garnered because of the banks and everything that has happened. Let me

:37:57.:38:01.

put that to Lord Haskins. That is what Ed Miliband and his crowd are

:38:01.:38:07.

banking on, isn't it. Yes, but responding successfully to populist

:38:07.:38:12.

opinion, anybody can do that. But it is about whose side is are you on?

:38:12.:38:18.

That is the divide Ed Miliband is trying to create, and, you know,

:38:18.:38:22.

maybe Michael Brown is right. It won't just be populist but people

:38:22.:38:26.

will think there is a battle going on. Clearly there is a division,

:38:26.:38:31.

public opinion has a low regard for business, but political leaders, I

:38:31.:38:35.

know they have to get votes but they have to take account of the broader

:38:35.:38:41.

economy, and the broader economy requires long-term planning,

:38:42.:38:45.

understanding of the problems and not knee-jerk re ing is --

:38:45.:38:50.

reactions. ? You have the British chambers of commerce and the

:38:50.:38:53.

Confederation of British Industry united in their criticism and fury

:38:53.:38:58.

at most of the announcement, because I spoke to them, that Ed Miliband

:38:58.:39:03.

made. That is not good. Those are Conservative run organisations and

:39:03.:39:06.

they always are. But the interesting thing is when you refer pack to 97

:39:06.:39:10.

they always are. But the interesting big business came round not because

:39:10.:39:13.

of the prawn cocktail, they saw this was going to be the Government. It

:39:13.:39:17.

was chicken and egg the other way round, so they deal with Governments

:39:17.:39:18.

when they think they are going to round, so they deal with Governments

:39:18.:39:21.

take over, the other important thing to say is business has changed a

:39:21.:39:26.

great deal since then and perception of it big manufacturing, that is all

:39:26.:39:31.

on one side. The big global economies that have been ripping off

:39:31.:39:35.

the tax system. Ed Miliband has carefully said, you know, there is

:39:35.:39:39.

onening about the large global corporations who are often not

:39:39.:39:43.

paying, you know, their taxes, versus small business, Federation of

:39:43.:39:47.

Small Business support the idea, that small business, who actually

:39:47.:39:50.

employ many more people than the big corporation, and I do think there

:39:50.:39:54.

has been a shift in attitude, what do we do about very large companies

:39:54.:39:59.

that take over large parts of this country, and have no accountability

:39:59.:40:04.

to the Government, to the taxpayer, to the citizens or anyone else. I

:40:04.:40:10.

agree with that and something has to be done, but knee-jerk reaction to

:40:10.:40:14.

this aren't going to bring them into line. All they will do is put up

:40:14.:40:20.

people's defences and we end one a polarisation of attitudes on an

:40:20.:40:25.

issue which is of great public concern for all involved. Labour

:40:25.:40:32.

can't afford to alienate them for a reason. Labour is broke, can you

:40:32.:40:38.

tell meme any CEO that is about to drop a couple of million into the

:40:38.:40:44.

Labour Party coffers. There used to be lots and maybe some will come

:40:44.:40:48.

back. I think it is chicken and egg, when people see, if Labour continues

:40:48.:40:53.

to do well and be ahead in the polls and it looks as if they are going to

:40:53.:40:57.

win, but money is less important these day, the election campaign is

:40:57.:41:02.

much more about the TV camp, the TV debates and campaigns than it is

:41:02.:41:06.

about big posters so Labour will have less money: I think it is true

:41:06.:41:11.

if it is obvious, it isn't at the moment, if it is obvious that Ed

:41:11.:41:14.

Miliband is going to be the next Prime Minister, as it was obvious

:41:15.:41:19.

two or three years before I lost my seat in 1997 in humper side, I do

:41:19.:41:23.

think that the money follows the party into Government. I don't think

:41:23.:41:28.

that Ed Miliband should have sleepless nights at the moment about

:41:28.:41:32.

the fact he he has ruffled the feathers in the energy industry.? He

:41:32.:41:37.

is going to reroom to. It Maybe it will be matter less an. He may not

:41:38.:41:43.

have enough money to get his tube fare in. It will be expensive. Tony

:41:43.:41:50.

Blair would have won the 1997 election without spending anybody's

:41:50.:41:52.

money. Thank you for joining us today.

:41:52.:41:58.

The National Association of Probation Officers announced

:41:58.:42:00.

yesterday that they are going to ballot for industrial action oaf the

:42:00.:42:04.

Justice Secretary's plans to allow charities and private companies to

:42:04.:42:07.

carry out some of their work with payment by results. The Ministry of

:42:07.:42:10.

carry out some of their work with Justice say the reforms

:42:10.:42:11.

carry out some of their work with necessary to break a cycle of

:42:11.:42:15.

offending, particularly of those reloosed after a sentence of less

:42:15.:42:18.

than a year. Giles has been looking at how the changes will work.

:42:18.:42:23.

Chris Grayling is determined to changes how prisoner, particularly

:42:23.:42:26.

those sentenced to under a year are dealt with when they leave prison.

:42:26.:42:30.

He wants to shake-up probation, allow voluntary group, charities and

:42:31.:42:35.

private companies to operate as probation supervisors an mentor,

:42:35.:42:39.

paying them if reoffending is reduced. Important aims given over

:42:39.:42:46.

50% those sentenced for under a year go on the refend costing the economy

:42:46.:42:51.

£13 billion annually. The Probation Service think it is untested,

:42:51.:42:57.

unproven, threatens public safety and is being forced through too fast

:42:57.:43:01.

People won't take responsibilties and often serious further offences

:43:01.:43:04.

and serious harm cases come from that group of offender, that group

:43:04.:43:08.

of clients, we believe that will increase the risk to community

:43:08.:43:11.

safety and that is paramount on the increase the risk to community

:43:11.:43:14.

campaign of resistance to what Chris Grayling is saying. The charity the

:43:14.:43:18.

St Giles Trust works with 16,000 people a year in communities and

:43:18.:43:24.

prisons. They see some of the most persistent low to medium risk

:43:24.:43:27.

prisons. They see some of the most offenders and have a record of

:43:27.:43:32.

success, 44% of staff are ex-offender, in some projectst 0% of

:43:32.:43:38.

the team have served time. Ebony thinks that is what makes them a

:43:38.:43:43.

success and why taxpayers shouldn't be afraid of people like her doing

:43:43.:43:47.

the work. They shouldn't be worried. I see young people involved in gangs

:43:48.:43:53.

and potential doctors and nurse, our future. In ters of where I am coming

:43:54.:43:58.

from, I have been to Crown Courts and often I go with my young people,

:43:58.:44:01.

and I know what it is like to stand up in that dock and not only that, I

:44:01.:44:06.

know what it is is like to go in and not come out. Some have pointed out

:44:06.:44:13.

big companies like Serco and G4S could bid for contracts ing others

:44:13.:44:18.

say if reoffending comes down does it matter who is providing the

:44:18.:44:22.

service? It can make better results for both the client, for the less

:44:22.:44:25.

service? It can make better results future victims of crime, and also

:44:25.:44:29.

for the taxpayer in terms of savings, it has been frustrating,

:44:29.:44:33.

because we are not mainstream, you know, what we do, the new and

:44:33.:44:39.

radical stuff isn't part of the solution yet. Therefore we follow is

:44:39.:44:43.

a time and place for change. I think that is -- that time has come. There

:44:43.:44:50.

is less money round, offending rates remain stubbornly high and we know

:44:50.:44:54.

for those serving less than one year there is a desperate need. What with

:44:54.:45:00.

are seeing is we can do the job of meeting peep, short-term custodial

:45:00.:45:03.

are seeing is we can do the job of offenders at the gate better than

:45:03.:45:06.

anybody and where necessary we will work in partnership with provider,

:45:06.:45:10.

so we have never argues against that. What we are against... We have

:45:10.:45:17.

tackled to bring down to lowest since 2006.

:45:17.:45:19.

Already, the union is looking to vote with its feet and begin

:45:19.:45:21.

Already, the union is looking to industrial action. Mr Grayling won't

:45:22.:46:54.

get his reforms without a fight. For prisoners with a sentence of less

:46:54.:46:58.

than one year, it is not 1% of them that reoffend, it is 60%. There are

:46:58.:47:07.

some bits of our public sector, often those around criminal

:47:07.:47:10.

justice, which have been poorly performing for a while. Do use

:47:10.:47:22.

accent that some organisations are arguing that the payment model will

:47:22.:47:25.

put off some charities bidding for these contracts? Probably in some

:47:25.:47:31.

cases, because if you are a small charity, you have not got a big bank

:47:31.:47:34.

account and it is difficult to step in when you will not get paid for a

:47:35.:47:38.

number of years. On the other hand, in other areas of the welfare state,

:47:38.:47:43.

we are seeing big companies marry up with those companies like the St

:47:43.:47:47.

Giles trust. This is part of the new landscape of policy. But some people

:47:47.:47:52.

fear that the reality is that it will only be the big companies that

:47:52.:47:58.

will apply, like G4S and Serco. Is that the sort of privatisation you

:47:58.:48:01.

would like to see? The organisations which should win contracts should be

:48:01.:48:06.

the ones best able to do it. I would not exclude anybody. But it would be

:48:06.:48:11.

putting smaller organisations at a disadvantage. What do you say on the

:48:11.:48:19.

principle, Polly? In the in-house magazine for Serco in 2009, you

:48:19.:48:28.

wrote in favour of this idea? In favour of different people being

:48:28.:48:31.

able to provide things. Nobody could look at the St Giles trust and not

:48:31.:48:35.

say, what a good thing. There are many who could come in and have a

:48:35.:48:39.

good experience. But this was how the work programme again, with the

:48:39.:48:44.

idea that we were shown examples of excellent charities doing really

:48:44.:48:47.

good back to work programmes. And they were used by the big companies

:48:47.:48:49.

good back to work programmes. And at was what -- as what was called

:48:49.:48:54.

big candy. In the end, the whole programme was carved up a big

:48:54.:48:59.

companies. The smaller companies were squeezed out. The big companies

:48:59.:49:04.

would then cream off the most money and give the tough Charis -- tough

:49:04.:49:09.

cases to the charities. Is that an argument not to do it? You have to

:49:09.:49:13.

be careful to do it where you have got the skills and the people. The

:49:13.:49:18.

St Giles trust, of course, should be doing it. But the idea that you

:49:18.:49:21.

should have a wholesale roll-out of this, it will be the big dump unease

:49:21.:49:26.

that do it. You should have it where you have got excellent providers,

:49:26.:49:30.

and not do it as a monolithic sell-off to the lowest bidder. Chris

:49:30.:49:37.

Grayling has called in the City of London police to investigate alleged

:49:38.:49:42.

fraud by Serco staff working on a major contract to transport

:49:42.:49:43.

prisoners to and from courts across major contract to transport

:49:43.:49:48.

London and East Anglia. Nine people who worked for a company paid by the

:49:48.:49:51.

government for finding jobs for the unemployed have been charged with 60

:49:51.:49:55.

offences of fraud and forgery. If you have the sort of setup that

:49:55.:49:59.

Polly has outlined, and those are the major players, are you confident

:49:59.:50:03.

that that will provide a good service? I am, because this issue of

:50:03.:50:10.

private sector involvement in public services is controversial, of

:50:10.:50:16.

course, and some examples you have mentioned, another one is G4S not

:50:16.:50:20.

delivering entirely on the Olympics. Against that, what is not often

:50:20.:50:24.

heard is the hundreds if not thousands of contracts being on

:50:24.:50:27.

successfully. Of course we don't hear about them, because they don't

:50:27.:50:31.

create news, but they are happening. If we look at the military, which

:50:31.:50:35.

works hand in glove with companies in everything that it does apart

:50:35.:50:39.

from the actual front line soldiering, it is a positive

:50:39.:50:44.

relationship. This is an idea whose time should have come a long time

:50:44.:50:48.

ago, I think. As you say, the Labour government was thinking about it a

:50:48.:50:55.

decade ago. It horrified me to learn recently that if you are in prison

:50:55.:50:59.

for less than one year, the current state provided probation service

:50:59.:51:03.

does not provide you with anything. You leave prison with £46 in your

:51:03.:51:08.

pocket, and there is no mentoring or support. Chris Grayling is desperate

:51:08.:51:13.

to find some mechanism beyond the probation service to ensure that

:51:13.:51:19.

there is mentoring for that group of people, who tend to be the

:51:19.:51:22.

reoffenders. By definition on they are probably young, and have no

:51:22.:51:27.

support. I also learnt that apparently, probation officers

:51:27.:51:31.

personally, who do a fantastic job, spend no more than 20% of their time

:51:32.:51:37.

in many cases on face time with their clients. That is because of

:51:37.:51:43.

the bureaucratic nature of the service as it currently is

:51:44.:51:49.

constructed. But that is part of the things anyone who runs the service

:51:49.:51:53.

will have to do. Would you prefer to see the probation service run this?

:51:53.:51:58.

I would like to see a partnership. That is what the previous government

:51:59.:52:03.

and the current government intend to do. The current probation service is

:52:03.:52:11.

outstanding, but it is stretched. I think there is a more efficient way

:52:11.:52:15.

of doing it, subject to the caveat that Polly mentioned. The service is

:52:15.:52:23.

desperately stretched. You said the crucial thing. These are the people

:52:23.:52:26.

you want to give most treatment to, and they get very little. They have

:52:26.:52:32.

been squeezed and squeezed, and the probation service as well is a poor

:52:32.:52:37.

service because it has not got the resources it needs. By putting it

:52:37.:52:41.

out like this, you don't provide extra services. But you might be

:52:41.:52:47.

able to run it more efficiently. There is no reason to think so. I

:52:47.:52:57.

agree that in an ideal world, it is a pity that Chris Grayling's

:52:58.:53:01.

predecessor Ken Clarke was not able from the word go to have a pilot. It

:53:01.:53:07.

has taken us up until 2013 before they have been able to do it. I

:53:07.:53:11.

suppose they have run out of time, but a pilot would have been an ideal

:53:11.:53:18.

start. Prisons have been one under private management. They do better

:53:18.:53:22.

on reoffending and are generally better managed. They have had some

:53:22.:53:25.

terrible reports recently. But on better managed. They have had some

:53:25.:53:29.

average, they are better. If the government wants to do this, fair

:53:29.:53:35.

play to them. Bawdy humour, grumpy northerners and a pavement brawl.

:53:35.:53:38.

It must be a week at the British seaside.

:53:38.:53:46.

Big news this week. Labour's end of the pier show in Brighton, with Ed

:53:46.:53:50.

Miliband showing unexpected gift for comic timing. She said, I was an

:53:50.:54:01.

action hero. Why are you laughing? I can't think either. Meanwhile, the

:54:01.:54:06.

other aid took a pop at David Cameron's holiday shortcomings. I

:54:06.:54:10.

thought for a prime minister, it was a surprisingly small town. Talking

:54:10.:54:16.

of balls, John Prescott used one of ours to make clear what he thinks

:54:16.:54:23.

about HS2. Why cancel it? They are using the north to say you can have

:54:23.:54:27.

20 minutes on a bloody train to Birmingham. Mind you, Lord Prescott

:54:27.:54:32.

was out punched on the programme by Iain Dale, publisher of Damian

:54:32.:54:36.

McBride's spin and tell memoir. Tough on protest, tougher on the

:54:36.:54:40.

causes of protest. Next week, the Tories in Manchester. What is the

:54:40.:54:49.

worst that could happen? Michael Brown, it was a proper

:54:49.:54:54.

scrap, wasn't it, but it did land Iain Dale, the publisher, in

:54:54.:54:59.

trouble. And Ian should have known better. He is a gentle soul, but I

:54:59.:55:08.

always have one absolute rule. 18 years in Parliament, five general

:55:08.:55:11.

elections - the voter is always right, whatever they are throwing at

:55:11.:55:17.

you. Whatever eggs, whatever dogs are tempted to bite you, there is

:55:17.:55:24.

only one loser if you have a for a car with somebody who is a voter.

:55:24.:55:28.

The clear. I am sorry at what happened to you happened, but let

:55:28.:55:32.

that be a lesson. Do you agree, Polly? There has been a police

:55:32.:55:39.

caution, is that fair? I do think so. But it is funny that Iain Dale

:55:39.:55:43.

was actually protecting Damian McBride, who was the one in front of

:55:43.:55:47.

the cameras at the time, because Iain Dale owns the publishing

:55:47.:55:51.

company that is publishing Damian McBride. He wanted the guy out of

:55:51.:55:56.

the shot, but it is a funny turn of events. It did give us some rather

:55:56.:56:04.

good pictures will stop moving on to Boris. We can't not mention him

:56:04.:56:08.

ahead of the Conservative Party conference. He has said that he

:56:08.:56:12.

missed the House of Commons when the Syria debate was going on, an

:56:12.:56:19.

implication that he is heading back into Parliament? Well, he is

:56:19.:56:24.

trapped, isn't he? In the sense that he is guaranteed to be mayor of

:56:24.:56:25.

London until 2016. I suppose if he is guaranteed to be mayor of

:56:25.:56:33.

somebody vacated a seat in London in 2015... What would he do? He could

:56:33.:56:37.

just about get away with being a member of Parliament. Ken

:56:37.:56:41.

Livingstone was a member of Parliament for his first year as

:56:41.:56:45.

London mayor. He did not immediately give up. So he could run

:56:45.:56:53.

concurrently? Supposing the people of Croydon, were they seeking a new

:56:53.:56:57.

MP for Richard Ottaway's consistency, let's say they were to

:56:57.:57:02.

select him as their candidate for 2015 and he were to become the

:57:02.:57:05.

number of Parliament and have the dual mandate for one year, he could

:57:05.:57:07.

get away with it. If he is not in dual mandate for one year, he could

:57:07.:57:12.

the House of Commons after 2015 and therefore not in the House of

:57:12.:57:15.

Commons until the expiry of his mayoral term, he is not a player if

:57:15.:57:18.

anything should go wrong with David Cameron. But he has always reserved

:57:18.:57:23.

that right. It is a football analogy, do you believe him when he

:57:23.:57:28.

says he will serve all the way to the end? You can't believe anything

:57:28.:57:32.

he says. He just goes, I did not really mean it. And he gets

:57:32.:57:39.

forgiven. But it does show the extent to which they think they are

:57:39.:57:43.

not going to win the next election, the Conservatives. They will be keen

:57:43.:57:47.

to have Boris as a possible contender. Or is David Cameron less

:57:47.:57:51.

worried about interventions and a contender. Or is David Cameron less

:57:51.:57:57.

few loose comments from Boris Johnson ahead of this conference? I

:57:57.:58:02.

don't think David Cameron is worried. I meant for after the

:58:02.:58:08.

election. It shows that they are not expecting to win, and they want

:58:08.:58:11.

Boris in there so that when Cameron loses, he is a contender. I would

:58:11.:58:17.

put a bet on Croydon, where there was a vacancy. The retiring member

:58:17.:58:21.

of Parliament, which got away, is standing down. And would London

:58:21.:58:24.

object to the fact that their mayor also has a voice in the House of

:58:25.:58:28.

Commons for 12 months? I would not have thought so. He could get away

:58:28.:58:33.

with that. Are you trying to tell something? As Polly says, Boris

:58:33.:58:39.

writes all the rules. It would only be overlapping for one year, and he

:58:39.:58:42.

would be able to say to the people of Croydon and London, I have only

:58:42.:58:46.

got one war year of my mayoral term to serve, and I can speak for those

:58:46.:58:51.

12 months for the people of Croydon. You heard it here first. Thank you

:58:51.:58:55.

to both of you for being guests of the day. That is it from us.

:58:55.:58:58.

Bye-bye.

:58:58.:59:02.

Jo Coburn is joined by journalists Polly Toynbee and Michael Brown to discuss the latest political news, including a discussion on the latest climate change report from a UN panel of scientists.


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