Browse content similar to 27/09/2013. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Good afternoon, welcome to the daily politics, it is almost certain that | :00:38. | :00:44. | |
human activity is responsible for global warming says an international | :00:44. | :00:48. | |
panel of scientist, despite temperatures barely rising for the | :00:48. | :00:52. | |
past 15 year, can an increasingly sceptical public be persuaded? | :00:52. | :00:57. | |
Prawns, a lettuce garnish and heaps of sauce sau, the ingredients for a | :00:57. | :00:59. | |
Prawns, a lettuce garnish and heaps good relationship with big business, | :00:59. | :01:04. | |
but is prawn cocktail off menu as Ed Miliband gets tough with bosses? Is | :01:04. | :01:11. | |
our gas a electricity among the cheapest in Europe or the most | :01:11. | :01:15. | |
expensive, we investigate whether we are really being ripped off by the | :01:15. | :01:19. | |
energy companies. And we will look back over an eventful week at the | :01:19. | :01:26. | |
seaside. All that in the next hour, with us | :01:27. | :01:31. | |
for the programme are are two old hands here at Westminster, Polly | :01:31. | :01:36. | |
Toynbee of the Guardian and mown. Welcome to the -- Michael Brown. Let | :01:36. | :01:40. | |
us start with a story briefed to a couple of newspapers this morning, | :01:40. | :01:42. | |
that is there are plans to make the couple of newspapers this morning, | :01:42. | :01:47. | |
long-term unemployed do work if return for receiving Job Job Seekers | :01:47. | :01:52. | |
Allowance, an announcement is expected to be made at the | :01:52. | :01:54. | |
Conservative Party Conference next week, a poll suggests the policy | :01:55. | :01:58. | |
would be overhemingly popular among voters. | :01:58. | :02:02. | |
What do you say Polly? I am sure it will be popular. It the the sort of | :02:02. | :02:07. | |
thing that sounds like it will make sense. It will be like the bedroom | :02:07. | :02:10. | |
tax. You will get a turn round. The sense. It will be like the bedroom | :02:10. | :02:14. | |
bedroom tax is unpopular, having started off popular, because if you | :02:14. | :02:19. | |
have a large group of people, working unpaid, they are displacing | :02:19. | :02:23. | |
other people, it turns out to be expensive. It is difficult to find | :02:23. | :02:27. | |
them all job, and they are going to include people with serious mental | :02:27. | :02:30. | |
problem, with serious physical problems, and I think we will get a | :02:30. | :02:35. | |
lot of stories of people in a bad state of distress, being made to do | :02:35. | :02:38. | |
very unsuitable work, I suspect public opinion will say we didn't | :02:38. | :02:42. | |
mean those people, we didn't mean in that way, as ever it is one of those | :02:42. | :02:46. | |
back of the envelope sounds great for conference policies but it won't | :02:46. | :02:50. | |
work. Or is it is back of the enslope or is it's a progression of | :02:50. | :02:54. | |
the welfare policies that have been set out by the Government? Yes, | :02:54. | :03:00. | |
think it is. I think Polly is being unfair to the Government on this. | :03:00. | :03:04. | |
There is no doubt it will get as she says, a huge cheer at the Tory party | :03:04. | :03:09. | |
conference next yolk, I went help feeling I have heard this made by | :03:09. | :03:14. | |
successive Governments made. You have? Whether anything will come of | :03:14. | :03:18. | |
it, I am not sure. Polly is right, it is where you draw the line, there | :03:18. | :03:23. | |
are people who are long-term unemployed who do have mental health | :03:23. | :03:26. | |
problem, single parent families who are bringing up tiny children, will | :03:26. | :03:32. | |
obviously be possibly worried about this, but I think there is no doubt | :03:32. | :03:36. | |
that the Government is tapping into a ripped seam of public opinion. | :03:36. | :03:40. | |
Michael Heseltine did this and he a ripped seam of public opinion. | :03:40. | :03:44. | |
did it well. I supported it at time I think he call it Work Fair. It was | :03:44. | :03:50. | |
popular but he paid people, he said, if you are working, you deserve to | :03:50. | :03:56. | |
get more. They will say there is no money round. The trick is to make it | :03:56. | :04:05. | |
an inseven sieve. That is where the Work Fair, that was based on make it | :04:05. | :04:11. | |
pay to work. But I think, but one thing in the Government's defence is | :04:11. | :04:16. | |
this, you do find that when benefits are withdrawn, or threatened to be | :04:16. | :04:20. | |
withdrawn, a lot of people may well be on the black economy any way, and | :04:20. | :04:24. | |
you do find that the number of claimants go down. Do you think | :04:24. | :04:27. | |
there could be an incentive put into a policy like this, because you are | :04:27. | :04:31. | |
right, people will say surely it is better to do something, than sit, I | :04:31. | :04:35. | |
don't want to use George Osborne's analogy of sitting in the room with | :04:35. | :04:38. | |
the blinds down, but sitting round not doing very much else. Of course | :04:38. | :04:42. | |
it is S work experience is a good thing. It depend on whether they are | :04:42. | :04:46. | |
doing things that are useful, and that will lead to work, and whether | :04:46. | :04:50. | |
they are the right people who are being... But they should be | :04:50. | :04:53. | |
reregarded. Otherwise they will, if over a long period of time, you | :04:53. | :04:58. | |
know, you have a million people ng unpaid work, what does that do to | :04:58. | :05:03. | |
the world of work? It it tips the balance, there are too many people | :05:03. | :05:07. | |
working at free labour, they will displace real jobs. Do you think | :05:07. | :05:11. | |
it's a sophisticated enough announcement, in terms of setting | :05:11. | :05:14. | |
out what Polly is say, which is it does have to be work that could, | :05:15. | :05:19. | |
that might lead to a job at the end of it, bear in mind the long-term | :05:19. | :05:23. | |
unemployed is two years, out of work, that it would lead to | :05:23. | :05:27. | |
something. It isn't just slave labour as some would call it. I hope | :05:27. | :05:30. | |
something. It isn't just slave the Government when it makes an | :05:30. | :05:32. | |
announcement like this as a party conference, it is just the headline, | :05:32. | :05:37. | |
it will get the crowd pleasing delegates on their feet. I do hope | :05:37. | :05:42. | |
that behind it there has been some work done. Wouldn't count on it! | :05:42. | :05:52. | |
Sometimes Government make announce and we nev hear about them | :05:52. | :05:56. | |
thereafter. Who knows where it will go. It might well be something that | :05:56. | :06:01. | |
the Government will announce as something that could be fleshed | :06:01. | :06:03. | |
fourth the next manifesto. There is no doubt that the general public are | :06:04. | :06:08. | |
on the Government's side on this. Thank you. Scientists are on the | :06:08. | :06:13. | |
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have today published the | :06:13. | :06:16. | |
first part of their fifth assessment report, setting out the current | :06:16. | :06:19. | |
state of scientific knowledge about climate change. The panel's fourth | :06:19. | :06:21. | |
state of scientific knowledge about report which came out in 2007 was | :06:21. | :06:26. | |
undermined by incorrect projection, about how quickly glaciers were | :06:26. | :06:31. | |
melt, and controversy over the apparent exclusion of scientists who | :06:31. | :06:36. | |
challenge the mainstream consensus. But the IPCC insists it has learned | :06:36. | :06:40. | |
lessons. Scientists are more confident than | :06:40. | :06:43. | |
ever that climate change is happening, and that people are | :06:43. | :06:48. | |
largely to blame. They say there is a 95% chance that human activity is | :06:48. | :06:53. | |
responsible for more than half of the observed changes since the | :06:53. | :06:56. | |
1950s. The culprit St the emission of | :06:56. | :07:02. | |
greenhouse gas. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is | :07:02. | :07:07. | |
40 hers higher than in the preindustrial era. The report says | :07:07. | :07:10. | |
that global surface temperatures will increase by the end of this | :07:10. | :07:13. | |
century. On almost all scenarios, the average | :07:13. | :07:18. | |
century. temperature will rise by more than | :07:18. | :07:23. | |
1.5 degrees centigrade relative to the period 1850-1900. If emissions | :07:23. | :07:28. | |
continue as a high rate that is likely to exceed 2 degrees. However, | :07:28. | :07:33. | |
the expected range of temperature increase this century is lower than | :07:33. | :07:37. | |
in the previous report. The IPCC now suggests it will be | :07:37. | :07:44. | |
between 0.3, and 4.8 degrees. That compares with a range of | :07:44. | :07:49. | |
1.1-6.4 degrees in the fourth assessment. This shift follows an | :07:49. | :07:56. | |
observed and unpredicted hiatus in at fer Mick warming since the 90s. | :07:56. | :08:02. | |
It could be that more excess energy is being absorbed by the ocean, and | :08:02. | :08:07. | |
on sea-level rise the IPCC is more pessimistic than before. The report | :08:07. | :08:12. | |
says they will go up between 26 centimetres and 82 centimetres by | :08:12. | :08:16. | |
the turn of the century. A hiring range than previously | :08:16. | :08:19. | |
thought. Well, with us now is the | :08:19. | :08:25. | |
Conservative peer Matt Ridley and the climate change minister Greg | :08:25. | :08:28. | |
Barker. Welcome to the programme. Matt Ridley. Scientists are more | :08:28. | :08:31. | |
certain than ever about climate change, we have to act to limit the | :08:31. | :08:35. | |
effects? What this report is saying is that both extremes were wrong. | :08:35. | :08:39. | |
People who say it is not happening are clearly wrong but people who say | :08:39. | :08:41. | |
we are in for calf frof is wrong. It are clearly wrong but people who say | :08:42. | :08:47. | |
has lower the range of likely projections, to about one to 2.5 | :08:47. | :08:52. | |
degrees over this century, most of which will be beneficial. It will be | :08:52. | :08:57. | |
70 years before we see any harm from climate change, and we are seeing a | :08:57. | :09:01. | |
lots of harm from climate policy, so I think, the models have clearly got | :09:01. | :09:05. | |
things wrong over the last 20, 30 year, they didn't predict this | :09:05. | :09:10. | |
pause, or that climate change would be as slow as it has, and they have | :09:10. | :09:12. | |
to be revisited. You do accept that climate change is | :09:12. | :09:15. | |
happening, and they are pretty certain humans are to blame? What | :09:15. | :09:20. | |
they say is that more than half of the climate change since 1950 is | :09:20. | :09:24. | |
man-made, and I think virtually everybody I know on the sceptical | :09:24. | :09:30. | |
side as well as on the alarmist side accepts that. I do and have all | :09:30. | :09:34. | |
along. Enyou say climate change policies are doing more harm, are | :09:34. | :09:39. | |
you saying it is better to live with the consequences of climate change | :09:39. | :09:43. | |
than to take policies that will do something to mitigate them? The | :09:43. | :09:48. | |
consensus view is up to 2 degrees you don't see net harm to the | :09:48. | :09:53. | |
economy or the ecology, because you get longer growing season, you get | :09:53. | :09:58. | |
fewer winter death, more precipitation so it isn't going to | :09:58. | :10:04. | |
come into play until our great grandchildren. It is worth taking | :10:04. | :10:08. | |
the policies before harm occurs, what do you say Polly, because they | :10:08. | :10:11. | |
have been wrong and the rate of temperature increase is not as fast | :10:11. | :10:14. | |
as they did first think it was going to be, is it worth taking action is | :10:14. | :10:18. | |
now It is a small change, they have sightly changed the range, but I | :10:18. | :10:22. | |
mean the catastrophic is the main, you know, is the main part of it, | :10:22. | :10:26. | |
and what they are predicting. It could be less or more, 70 years is a | :10:26. | :10:30. | |
short time. I have young grandchildren, that is not very | :10:30. | :10:33. | |
long. If you look at what they are projecting for Britain, if the Gulf | :10:33. | :10:37. | |
Stream moves away, instead of being a temperate moderate climate, we | :10:37. | :10:42. | |
could be cold, we could be sublingt subjected, the idea ewe will have a | :10:42. | :10:45. | |
longer growing season, that is not for Britain, not if the Gulf Stream | :10:45. | :10:48. | |
longer growing season, that is not moves, which it may. When you look | :10:48. | :10:50. | |
longer growing season, that is not at risk you were a chairman of a | :10:50. | :10:54. | |
company, Northern Rock, you looked at risk, you took the little bit | :10:54. | :10:58. | |
that said there was no risk and did nothing about the enormous bit that | :10:58. | :11:03. | |
said there was. That is shot to the way the look at this. To spend more | :11:03. | :11:06. | |
on becoming self-sufficient on energy is not a huge price to pay, | :11:06. | :11:11. | |
to counter the very large enormous and more convincing risk of | :11:11. | :11:14. | |
something catastrophic. I don't know about you and risk assessment, but | :11:14. | :11:19. | |
so far your record has not been great. Are you complacent. What the | :11:19. | :11:24. | |
financial crisis teach us is we should not follow financial models | :11:24. | :11:28. | |
blindly. That is what happens in the financial crisis, everybody was | :11:28. | :11:31. | |
following the models rather than really. -- reality. We find the | :11:32. | :11:35. | |
models are wrong and they have been wrong for 20 years: You were taking | :11:35. | :11:41. | |
your owned a vice. As for the crisis, the cost of these policy, we | :11:41. | :11:47. | |
are doubling people's energy bills, we are killing 200,000 people a year | :11:47. | :11:52. | |
by raising food price, the policies are not without enormous pain to the | :11:52. | :11:57. | |
here and now. Nothing like the proportion of pain that is predicted | :11:57. | :12:01. | |
by the majority of scientists as being 95% likely. That is not true. | :12:01. | :12:05. | |
The 95%, remember, is about the fact that there has been more than half | :12:05. | :12:10. | |
of the warming since 1950, that was caused by mankind. | :12:10. | :12:19. | |
It is a very small probability of catastrophe. If you read the report | :12:19. | :12:23. | |
it says the amount of snow and ice as demiles an houred and ocean | :12:24. | :12:27. | |
warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, | :12:27. | :12:30. | |
that is where a lot of the climate change is being absorbed, you are | :12:30. | :12:34. | |
storing up massive problems for the future. That is not the case... They | :12:34. | :12:39. | |
are saying that is the case in terms of the sea-levels and the oceans are | :12:39. | :12:44. | |
warming, Sea-level is rising 3 millimetres a year, there is no | :12:44. | :12:48. | |
acceleration. That is a foot per century. They project a foot to two | :12:48. | :12:54. | |
feet. The risk is remote. Very very few scientists they the Gulf Stream | :12:54. | :13:00. | |
is likely to move. Can I bring Greg Barker in, because you are just | :13:00. | :13:04. | |
costing the population with policies that aren't necessary according to | :13:04. | :13:08. | |
Matt. Let us be clear about one thing you said about Northern Rock. | :13:08. | :13:11. | |
It wasn't us who were responsible, it was the chairman and the | :13:11. | :13:14. | |
directors the of Northern Rock and the failed banks who were | :13:14. | :13:18. | |
responsible. But we are talking about people who have a clear view | :13:18. | :13:24. | |
on how you react to risk and how you manage risk in the face of evidence | :13:24. | :13:29. | |
and expert advice, I think that is clearly relevant, but what we have | :13:29. | :13:35. | |
to do is take seriously that 259 of the world's ing climate scientist | :13:35. | :13:40. | |
from 39 different nation, from the most respected institution, have a | :13:40. | :13:44. | |
very clear message that climate change is very real, that human | :13:44. | :13:48. | |
activity is in large part responsible for it, unless we change | :13:48. | :13:50. | |
activity is in large part our way, we will see not just | :13:50. | :13:57. | |
warming, but extreme weather events, heat wave, rising sea-level, melting | :13:57. | :14:02. | |
glaciers they will have a massive effect on people. Even if, I want | :14:02. | :14:05. | |
you to answer that point directly and particularly when you said there | :14:05. | :14:09. | |
could be advantages at the moment in terms of your example of the longer | :14:09. | :14:14. | |
growing season, but not for -- parts of the world. There is plenty of | :14:14. | :14:18. | |
calculation by leading sin tis, here is another report which I think I | :14:18. | :14:22. | |
the minister should reed. 47 leading sin tests are written it. It comes | :14:22. | :14:27. | |
to the opposite conclusion, it is launched today also. 47 important | :14:27. | :14:32. | |
scientists have launched it. Can I finish the point. In terms of things | :14:32. | :14:36. | |
like sea-level rise and so on, we are seeing effects of warming, of | :14:36. | :14:40. | |
course we are, nobody is is denying that, the question is are we seeing | :14:40. | :14:45. | |
an acceleration to SATS frof and no. We have seen a slow down, that has | :14:45. | :14:51. | |
been acknowledged by the IPCC. They have cut back their model, they are | :14:51. | :14:58. | |
saying climate Rons is 1-2 upon.5 degrees. That produces net benefits. | :14:58. | :15:04. | |
Not in a small island state where we are front sea rise. Respond to this, | :15:04. | :15:08. | |
it is the crux of the matter, isn't it, there is an agreement that | :15:08. | :15:10. | |
it is the crux of the matter, isn't climate change is happening... And | :15:10. | :15:18. | |
that. Sceptics are moving to the fact that gradually there is an | :15:18. | :15:22. | |
increasingly solid consensus, this isn't a fantasy, it is real. The | :15:22. | :15:27. | |
question is, how we respond to it. That is... It is milder than it was. | :15:27. | :15:35. | |
Don't talk over each other. Anything over two degrees is dangerous, and | :15:35. | :15:40. | |
we have to manage that. It will impact not just us but people in | :15:40. | :15:45. | |
Africa, Asia, and that all has knock on vents -- effects on us on the | :15:45. | :15:48. | |
economy, migration, it's a real danger. I am going to, I will let | :15:48. | :15:53. | |
you, I am going to bring in Polly Toynbee to say the problem is to | :15:53. | :15:57. | |
some extent there has been a loss of cred bility because of some of the | :15:57. | :15:59. | |
some extent there has been a loss of things that happened ahead of the | :15:59. | :16:03. | |
last report, and the public is generally sceptical. Yes, one group | :16:03. | :16:12. | |
of scientists were caught behaving badly, but it remains the case that | :16:12. | :16:18. | |
the weight of scientific opinion... They could be wrong and the sun | :16:18. | :16:24. | |
might not rise tomorrow. But on the whole, anybody looking at risks, | :16:24. | :16:29. | |
anybody in charge, as you are, of this area of policy, has to look at | :16:29. | :16:35. | |
probability. On the other hand, we say, why shouldn't we become | :16:35. | :16:38. | |
self-sufficient in energy anyway? That would be a good thing. Most of | :16:38. | :16:42. | |
the sceptics like yourself are actually investors in the old carbon | :16:43. | :16:49. | |
fuels. Aid Davey says people are being misinformed by people with | :16:49. | :16:54. | |
vested interests. They are blocking climate change policies. Well, there | :16:54. | :16:57. | |
are people with vested interests in renewable energy as well. But is | :16:57. | :17:05. | |
that the recent? There are people with vested interests on all sides. | :17:05. | :17:09. | |
I have actually been banging the drum for shale gas -- coal, and | :17:09. | :17:20. | |
Charlotte -- shale gas is a bigger threat to that. But the government | :17:20. | :17:25. | |
does not speak with a unified voice on the subject. George Osborne said | :17:25. | :17:30. | |
he does not want Britain to go faster than other countries in | :17:30. | :17:34. | |
cutting emissions. John Hayes was opposed as energy minister to wind | :17:34. | :17:38. | |
farms. Owen Paterson, the climate change minister, says the measures | :17:38. | :17:40. | |
taken to combat climate change may change minister, says the measures | :17:40. | :17:48. | |
cause more damage than they prevent. We have taken radical steps that the | :17:48. | :17:53. | |
first green investment bank that is capitalising private sector | :17:53. | :17:58. | |
investment into green growth sectors across the economy, if you look at | :17:59. | :18:04. | |
the Greendale -- green reforms of the energy markets, we now have the | :18:05. | :18:11. | |
world's largest offshore industry. So were you crossed with those | :18:11. | :18:14. | |
ministers when they spoke against pushing faster with green policies? | :18:14. | :18:20. | |
Well, we have got a record. We don't need to talk about what we are going | :18:20. | :18:23. | |
to do . We have a record of solid action, and we need other countries | :18:24. | :18:28. | |
to catch up with Britain. We have international leadership on this. We | :18:28. | :18:33. | |
need the rest of the world to pick up the pace. Has David Cameron | :18:33. | :18:36. | |
really had the greenest government ever? I hope not. The problem the | :18:36. | :18:43. | |
government has got in my view is that there is a danger that climate | :18:43. | :18:48. | |
change policies may be doing as much damage to British industry as | :18:48. | :18:51. | |
climate change. What is the evidence for it? When you put additional | :18:51. | :18:58. | |
costs on industry, I used to represent a steel company, and all | :18:58. | :19:03. | |
the time that you add to the costs of industry like the steel industry, | :19:03. | :19:09. | |
you export jobs to the third World. And all the time that you are | :19:09. | :19:13. | |
dealing with climate change in this country, I don't know what | :19:13. | :19:17. | |
percentage of greenhouse gases Britain is responsible for, but | :19:17. | :19:20. | |
compared to Indonesia, China, India and the United States, until we | :19:20. | :19:26. | |
start making sure that those countries owed by the kind of rules | :19:26. | :19:30. | |
we have to obey, steel jobs go to Indonesia. The current most | :19:30. | :19:38. | |
successful manufacturing sector in Europe is Germany, and they have the | :19:38. | :19:44. | |
highest level of renewable energy. Last year, the CBI tells us that the | :19:44. | :19:49. | |
low carbon goods and services sector accounted for a third of all growth | :19:49. | :19:52. | |
in the economy and was our biggest export. I take your point on Germany | :19:52. | :19:57. | |
will stop my family, apart from me, export. I take your point on Germany | :19:57. | :20:03. | |
live there. But my sister says that since Angela Merkel closed down the | :20:03. | :20:09. | |
power plants, they are importing their nuclear power and Germany is | :20:09. | :20:14. | |
building coal plants. They have much more renewable energy than we do. | :20:14. | :20:20. | |
They are crucifying themselves on the cost of energy. If you don't | :20:20. | :20:23. | |
think energy costs are important, look at what is happening in | :20:23. | :20:26. | |
America, where, by going for shale gas, they have cut the cost of | :20:26. | :20:31. | |
energy. That is causing manufacturing industries to move to | :20:31. | :20:36. | |
America wholesale from this country. I was at a fracking site in Virginia | :20:36. | :20:43. | |
yesterday. That is something -- somewhere where a global move to gas | :20:43. | :20:48. | |
is a good thing. The worst problem this government has is tied up with | :20:48. | :20:53. | |
what Ed Miliband said in his speech the other day. The public perceives | :20:53. | :20:57. | |
policies to deal with climate change as putting up their bills, and if we | :20:57. | :21:02. | |
don't carry the public with us on the cost of energy, we used the | :21:02. | :21:06. | |
argument. B the average family Bill is far too high. Last year, it cost | :21:06. | :21:14. | |
£9 to support onshore wind. £9 out of £1300, the average bill. We have | :21:14. | :21:19. | |
to be realistic in analysing what is driving up the cost of family | :21:19. | :21:23. | |
bills. Overwhelmingly, it is not government policy, it is the cost of | :21:23. | :21:30. | |
fossil fuels. What would it take to change your mind? Evidence. I have | :21:30. | :21:36. | |
always been driven by empirical data. Very selective data. Body five | :21:36. | :21:45. | |
years ago, when I was an economist, I was convinced that this was a | :21:45. | :21:51. | |
dangerous thing. The more I looked into it, the dodgier the data | :21:51. | :21:52. | |
looked. The wealth of data that into it, the dodgier the data | :21:53. | :21:58. | |
comes out today says that climate change has happened, which we all | :21:58. | :22:02. | |
accept, and that we are in for a mild warning for the next -- a mild | :22:02. | :22:09. | |
warming for the next 70 years. All the public has seen for the last few | :22:09. | :22:13. | |
years is Italy cold winters. What can be done to convince people more | :22:13. | :22:20. | |
that it is worth paying something now in the way that Greg Barker has | :22:20. | :22:25. | |
set out, to avoid the arguable -- arguable catastrophe of the future? | :22:25. | :22:30. | |
When people realised the risk with the Gulf stream, that we will not be | :22:30. | :22:33. | |
growing olive trees in this country, I think people are | :22:33. | :22:39. | |
beginning to see far more dramatic weather systems around the world and | :22:39. | :22:42. | |
they are taking that on board. There is no evidence for that, Polly. Your | :22:42. | :22:50. | |
idea of evidence is the 5% of the 95% of world scientists who say one | :22:50. | :22:55. | |
thing. You were just quoting a minority view on Gulf Stream 's. But | :22:55. | :23:01. | |
if one is in charge, as you work, of a large company, you have to look at | :23:01. | :23:06. | |
the risk of fraud probability. The probability is not certain that the | :23:06. | :23:09. | |
world scientists are right, in which case you have to try and mitigate | :23:09. | :23:13. | |
what might be an absolute catastrophe will stop not certain, | :23:13. | :23:19. | |
but might be. Let's take it in pure figures terms. There are more | :23:19. | :23:25. | |
scientists who are warning about catastrophe than there are | :23:26. | :23:31. | |
scientists who aren't. You don't know that for sure. Seriously. The | :23:31. | :23:40. | |
95% are people who say that climate change is affected by humans. I am | :23:40. | :23:45. | |
one of them. Then what is your problem? I have sat around a table | :23:45. | :23:51. | |
with all the other countries from Russia to the USA, China and Japan, | :23:51. | :23:56. | |
all agreed that climate change was real and happening. So do I. Agreed. | :23:56. | :24:03. | |
And we need to come up with an effective response. Every major | :24:03. | :24:11. | |
economy. I have to finish it there. Now, the centrepiece of Ed | :24:11. | :24:13. | |
Miliband's conference speech on Now, the centrepiece of Ed | :24:13. | :24:16. | |
Wednesday was of course that pledge that an incoming Labour government | :24:16. | :24:19. | |
would freeze energy prices until the end of 2017. But if you were | :24:19. | :24:24. | |
watching Wednesday's programme, and I hope you were, you might have | :24:24. | :24:28. | |
heard Andrew asked this question of labour's Stephen Twigg. If the | :24:28. | :24:33. | |
energy market in Britain is as dysfunctional as your parties claim | :24:33. | :24:37. | |
yet to be, why does Britain have some of the lowest gas and | :24:37. | :24:41. | |
electricity prices in Europe? Now, Andrew's question was based on | :24:41. | :24:46. | |
figures from Ofgem, as you can see on this graph of domestic gas | :24:46. | :24:52. | |
prices. Britain's is almost the cheapest, but a viewer wrote in to | :24:52. | :24:55. | |
save this comparison is misleading. He says the final price consumers | :24:55. | :24:57. | |
pay includes government taxes, which He says the final price consumers | :24:57. | :25:01. | |
he says makes up almost half of the final energy price in some | :25:01. | :25:06. | |
countries. He claims that if you look at the cost without government | :25:06. | :25:07. | |
taxes, UK prices don't look as look at the cost without government | :25:07. | :25:12. | |
competitive. So what is the truth? Professor Jim Watson is from the UK | :25:12. | :25:18. | |
energy research Centre. Have we got cheap gas and electricity, or | :25:18. | :25:22. | |
haven't we 's we have if you look at most of the comparisons. You have | :25:22. | :25:27. | |
quoted Ofgem's figures, and European figures show we are towards the | :25:28. | :25:31. | |
bottom end of the range, but your viewer is right that in some | :25:31. | :25:35. | |
countries, the proportion of tax is much lower than here. Here, we have | :25:35. | :25:47. | |
5% VAT. So when we are comparing prices, you have got to compare like | :25:47. | :25:51. | |
with like. If we look at other countries in Europe, should we use | :25:51. | :25:55. | |
the end price to the consumer, which includes taxes, or not? You should | :25:55. | :26:00. | |
include, but it is important to break down the bill and make the | :26:00. | :26:03. | |
comparison knowing what the constituents of the bill are. How | :26:04. | :26:07. | |
much is coming from the cost of wholesale energy, how much is coming | :26:07. | :26:11. | |
from the wires and pipes, how much is billing and how much is taxation? | :26:11. | :26:16. | |
Countries take very different approaches, and they are all at | :26:16. | :26:20. | |
different places. In the UK, we are about to go into a major investment | :26:20. | :26:24. | |
phase. Other countries may not be in that place will stop as long as we | :26:24. | :26:28. | |
have transparency of what makes up the bills, you can discuss whether | :26:28. | :26:32. | |
the UK is competitive will stop so it is not worthwhile to compare | :26:32. | :26:37. | |
pre-tax costs between countries? Well, the geography matters, so if | :26:37. | :26:41. | |
you did that, you would have to compare Norway, which has a lot of | :26:41. | :26:45. | |
hydro, and those stations were built along time ago, so they are not | :26:45. | :26:49. | |
paying those costs of any more, compared to a country like the UK | :26:49. | :26:53. | |
were recently, we have built a lot of gas-fired power stations. You | :26:53. | :26:56. | |
would have to take account of those differences. The reason for doing | :26:56. | :27:02. | |
this, of course, is to find out whether our prices are competitive. | :27:02. | :27:06. | |
Are we being ripped off, in other words. How do you do that most | :27:06. | :27:12. | |
effectively? Analysing them in comparison with other countries is a | :27:12. | :27:14. | |
good start. Many countries are exposed to very similar prices. The | :27:14. | :27:20. | |
gas prices that feed through into our bills are regional. Coal prices | :27:20. | :27:27. | |
are similar, and so on. But you have to take into account particular | :27:27. | :27:32. | |
circumstances so regulators and the government have to look at how | :27:32. | :27:36. | |
competitive the market is and look at the difference between the costs | :27:36. | :27:40. | |
of the energy that our energy companies by on the world markets, | :27:40. | :27:42. | |
of the energy that our energy and what happens to the final bill. | :27:42. | :27:46. | |
Recently, the costs of the bill have been going up much faster than the | :27:46. | :27:48. | |
Recently, the costs of the bill have costs of the energy going in. I | :27:48. | :27:53. | |
looked at a breakdown of the bill on Wednesday, and there are lots of | :27:53. | :27:57. | |
different things in there over and above what you pay for your energy. | :27:57. | :28:03. | |
There are. There are distribution network costs, there are the costs | :28:03. | :28:08. | |
of the people who bill you, and then there are the taxes. You have to | :28:08. | :28:12. | |
disentangle a lot. But there is a case for looking at the UK market, | :28:12. | :28:16. | |
because we have these big six companies, and I think the market is | :28:16. | :28:20. | |
not working as well as it could. It is hard for newer companies to come | :28:20. | :28:24. | |
in and start competing when the market is not transparent. That | :28:24. | :28:28. | |
compared to other countries in Europe, it is much more competitive | :28:28. | :28:32. | |
than countries where you sometimes have only one state owned provider. | :28:32. | :28:36. | |
There, it is even harder to see if you are getting value for money. | :28:36. | :28:44. | |
Like France? Yes, their provider is a player in the UK as well and it is | :28:44. | :28:46. | |
mainly owned by the French state and a player in the UK as well and it is | :28:46. | :28:50. | |
they are dominant. In that situation, which the UK used to have | :28:50. | :28:55. | |
before the 1990s, it is difficult for a regulator to know what is | :28:55. | :29:00. | |
going on inside their accounting, because there is no competition. | :29:00. | :29:03. | |
Michael Brown, we are not being ripped off, are we? Well, I don't | :29:04. | :29:09. | |
think the consumer sees it that way. The consumer says, here is the price | :29:09. | :29:13. | |
when a particular government came into power. The Labour Party are | :29:13. | :29:18. | |
quoting that it was about £1000 three and a half years ago and it is | :29:18. | :29:21. | |
quoting that it was about £1000 now more. So the voter looks at a | :29:21. | :29:25. | |
bill on year and on the following year, and when there is a spike in | :29:25. | :29:30. | |
price, the energy company has put the bills up. When the price comes | :29:30. | :29:35. | |
down, there is no reduction. The voter simply sees a bill from last | :29:35. | :29:41. | |
year and this year. And they have gone up. Polly, when you look at | :29:41. | :29:45. | |
those comparisons and you have the bare fact in front of you, it does | :29:45. | :29:51. | |
not seem as bad. But is it worth looking at other countries when we | :29:51. | :29:57. | |
know that bills keep going up? Gulf You have a dysfunctional market, | :29:57. | :30:03. | |
where 98% is by six big company, it is also practically impossible and | :30:03. | :30:07. | |
Ofgem hasn't done this well to analyse what they are doing and | :30:07. | :30:10. | |
where their profits are coming from. They are making £4 billion a year | :30:10. | :30:14. | |
profit, while prices have been going up 9% a year. Now, they generate the | :30:14. | :30:20. | |
electricity horizontal, they generate it, sell it to | :30:20. | :30:24. | |
themselves... That is the problem for new suppliers. That is why you | :30:24. | :30:29. | |
need to brake it up. The idea what Ed Miliband is suggesting is some | :30:29. | :30:36. | |
kind of socialism, he is going the other way, we need to fragment it | :30:36. | :30:40. | |
more to have more effective competition. A lot of the utilities | :30:40. | :30:46. | |
were sold very badly, in Margaret Thatcher's day and left these very | :30:46. | :30:50. | |
big companies, we need more smaller ones. | :30:50. | :30:52. | |
Thank you. Now what do you, what you get, you | :30:52. | :30:57. | |
Thank you. take prawn, Marie Rose sauce, | :30:57. | :31:01. | |
lettuce, a political party and an extra helping of schmooze, I am | :31:01. | :31:06. | |
talking of the prawn cocktail offensive. Made famous by Labour in | :31:06. | :31:12. | |
the '90s. It was a strategy, orchestrated by former Labour leader | :31:12. | :31:15. | |
John Smith who was mocked in the media, for cosying up to big | :31:15. | :31:19. | |
business in opposition. But although it was derided by journalists and | :31:19. | :31:23. | |
the Tory, the plan to improve relations with business seemed to | :31:23. | :31:28. | |
work. So much so, that by the time Tony Blair became Prime Minister in | :31:28. | :31:32. | |
1997, Labour had wooed bosses to such an extent that they were able | :31:32. | :31:37. | |
to introduce a windfall tax on the privatised utilities without | :31:38. | :31:40. | |
ruffling too many feathers. But after a week in which business | :31:40. | :31:43. | |
organisations have queued up to criticise the party, it could take | :31:43. | :31:47. | |
more than a few of these and here we r we have four beautifully presented | :31:47. | :31:52. | |
prawn cocktail. There is no cutlery, so you have, I will spill it. You | :31:52. | :31:59. | |
can look at them and imagine, go back in Labour's time, a few year, | :31:59. | :32:03. | |
any way few of these to get business back on side. Does it matter? We are | :32:03. | :32:07. | |
joined from Hull by the former chairman of Northern Foods Lord | :32:07. | :32:10. | |
Haskins, ho was a Labour peer but sits in the Lords as a | :32:10. | :32:16. | |
cross-bencher. Welcome to the programme. Whied did Labour make | :32:16. | :32:21. | |
such huge efforts to get business on side? They had a record of not | :32:21. | :32:24. | |
having good relations with business for many years before, particularly | :32:24. | :32:27. | |
with the price controls and all the stuff that went on in the 70s under | :32:27. | :32:33. | |
my friend Roy hattersly, it was clear the good will of business is | :32:33. | :32:38. | |
good for assurance in the Stock Markets, and that was what we set | :32:38. | :32:43. | |
out to achieve and did. Is it different now? Is it as nose have | :32:43. | :32:48. | |
big business on side? I think so. One of the problems in those days is | :32:48. | :32:52. | |
both sides have lost public credibility. The politicians have | :32:52. | :32:56. | |
lot lost a bit and business has because of the salaries, and the | :32:56. | :33:00. | |
banks and that sort of stuff. It still means that business is | :33:00. | :33:05. | |
critical to the running of the economy, probably more so, and | :33:05. | :33:08. | |
therefore, you may not like what is going on, but you jolly well work | :33:08. | :33:12. | |
with them and live with them. What to you Mick of Ed Miliband's | :33:12. | :33:16. | |
announcement this week, to freeze energy prices for two months The | :33:16. | :33:22. | |
decision itself is a flawed one, because price freezes, in my view, | :33:22. | :33:27. | |
never work, they have unintended consequence, for example, I am here | :33:27. | :33:29. | |
never work, they have unintended in the hum berks we are trying to | :33:29. | :33:33. | |
coke -- Humber, we are trying to coax energy companies to come here | :33:33. | :33:38. | |
and invest. If those companies feel that the government is going to play | :33:38. | :33:43. | |
round with markets, in the way this appears to be happening, and in the | :33:43. | :33:46. | |
way politicians have done over the whole energy policy generally, | :33:46. | :33:50. | |
people get reluctant to invest. We must get some degree of certainty, a | :33:50. | :33:54. | |
lot of the problems you have mentioned should be dealt with by | :33:54. | :33:57. | |
either the regulator, or the monopolies commission, a price | :33:57. | :34:01. | |
freeze won't help resolve either of the problems mentioned. Stay with | :34:01. | :34:07. | |
us, but that is the problem, you could have the price freeze for 20 | :34:07. | :34:12. | |
months after after that you are in the same situation as before? They | :34:12. | :34:15. | |
say it's a temporary freeze, they are not saying it's a perm innocent | :34:15. | :34:21. | |
price control mechanism. It is temporary while they discombobulate | :34:21. | :34:23. | |
the companies and force them to temporary while they discombobulate | :34:23. | :34:27. | |
create a better market, allowing others to come in, then they let the | :34:27. | :34:31. | |
competition and market rip, hoping you have a healthier one, I think | :34:31. | :34:35. | |
that is not a bad strategy. If they were going to be announcing | :34:35. | :34:40. | |
permanent price controls but Ofgem has their eye on them and the energy | :34:40. | :34:43. | |
market has worked with some understanding, they have bidding to | :34:43. | :34:52. | |
get from 2030 to 200040 price fixed, so prices in the energy market and | :34:52. | :34:55. | |
the government, that sort of trilateral agreement is going to be | :34:55. | :35:02. | |
there. Is the Labour Party looking anti-business? A little bit. I think | :35:02. | :35:07. | |
there is no doubt about that. You could argue that the Blair | :35:07. | :35:10. | |
government cosied up to business rather too much, and rather admired | :35:10. | :35:15. | |
some of the shortcomings of business which we now disapprove of. I think | :35:15. | :35:20. | |
the Labour Party has to be very careful that it doesn't appear to be | :35:20. | :35:25. | |
having a go just for the sake of it, because of issues which are nothing | :35:25. | :35:29. | |
to do with energy, the fact that business people are considered to be | :35:29. | :35:33. | |
fat cats, I am sure they are, that shouldn't be a reason for having an | :35:33. | :35:35. | |
fat cats, I am sure they are, that energy freeze, if as Polly says | :35:36. | :35:40. | |
there is going to be a new policy, I don't see how an energy freeze is | :35:40. | :35:43. | |
going to help make that policy. That will take several years to develop, | :35:43. | :35:47. | |
if we have one. In the meanwhile, I don't want all the potential invest | :35:47. | :35:52. | |
Norse my part of the world -- investors in my part of the world | :35:52. | :35:56. | |
waiting for what will come out. What do you think will be the | :35:56. | :35:58. | |
consequences for your region, do you think that Ed Miliband is at risk of | :35:58. | :36:03. | |
undoing much of the good work as you see et, that Labour had done with | :36:03. | :36:04. | |
undoing much of the good work as you business, even if they cosiesed -- | :36:05. | :36:11. | |
cosied up too much? I hope not. I talk to a lot of the Labour MPs and | :36:11. | :36:15. | |
I think they understand the importance of working with big | :36:15. | :36:21. | |
investors, but these signs don't look very good. They are populist | :36:21. | :36:25. | |
investors, but these signs don't and I think probably business | :36:25. | :36:29. | |
dismiss them as being satisfying the party member, rather than actually | :36:29. | :36:32. | |
dealing with the fundamental issues of the economy. What do you think, | :36:32. | :36:37. | |
ho the Tories going to respond to in in whatever your view is, about the | :36:37. | :36:42. | |
price freeze and the so-called land grab he proposed for developers who | :36:42. | :36:46. | |
don't start building when they own grab he proposed for developers who | :36:46. | :36:50. | |
the land, what will the Tories say about the risk of looking as if they | :36:50. | :36:55. | |
are on the side of big business invested interests. I suspect if | :36:55. | :37:02. | |
there are price rises, the first thing that any Government Energy | :37:02. | :37:06. | |
Minister will say, Greg Barker or any of his colleagues will say this | :37:06. | :37:11. | |
is the energy company's preparing for a Labour government. While we | :37:11. | :37:15. | |
would love to do something about that we can't. You have a Fays of | :37:15. | :37:19. | |
seeing there is going to be a spike in energy price before the | :37:19. | :37:26. | |
glenningion, but in general terms, I think that while technically | :37:26. | :37:30. | |
everything that Lord Haskins has said, I completely agree with, I | :37:30. | :37:33. | |
have a suspicion when it comes to the ordinary voter, not just Labour | :37:33. | :37:38. | |
voters, Tory midlet class, the squeezed middle that Ed Miliband is | :37:38. | :37:43. | |
after, I suspect that he is on the side of the Angel, where Tony Blair | :37:43. | :37:48. | |
and Peter Mandelson are at ing ing Ed Miliband. I suspect he won't have | :37:48. | :37:53. | |
sleepless nights, in the eyes of the voter there's is a trawl of votes to | :37:53. | :37:57. | |
be Garnered because of the banks and everything that has happened. Let me | :37:57. | :38:01. | |
put that to Lord Haskins. That is what Ed Miliband and his crowd are | :38:01. | :38:07. | |
banking on, isn't it. Yes, but responding successfully to populist | :38:07. | :38:12. | |
opinion, anybody can do that. But it is about whose side is are you on? | :38:12. | :38:18. | |
That is the divide Ed Miliband is trying to create, and, you know, | :38:18. | :38:22. | |
maybe Michael Brown is right. It won't just be populist but people | :38:22. | :38:26. | |
will think there is a battle going on. Clearly there is a division, | :38:26. | :38:31. | |
public opinion has a low regard for business, but political leaders, I | :38:31. | :38:35. | |
know they have to get votes but they have to take account of the broader | :38:35. | :38:41. | |
economy, and the broader economy requires long-term planning, | :38:42. | :38:45. | |
understanding of the problems and not knee-jerk re ing is -- | :38:45. | :38:50. | |
reactions. ? You have the British chambers of commerce and the | :38:50. | :38:53. | |
Confederation of British Industry united in their criticism and fury | :38:53. | :38:58. | |
at most of the announcement, because I spoke to them, that Ed Miliband | :38:58. | :39:03. | |
made. That is not good. Those are Conservative run organisations and | :39:03. | :39:06. | |
they always are. But the interesting thing is when you refer pack to 97 | :39:06. | :39:10. | |
they always are. But the interesting big business came round not because | :39:10. | :39:13. | |
of the prawn cocktail, they saw this was going to be the Government. It | :39:13. | :39:17. | |
was chicken and egg the other way round, so they deal with Governments | :39:17. | :39:18. | |
when they think they are going to round, so they deal with Governments | :39:18. | :39:21. | |
take over, the other important thing to say is business has changed a | :39:21. | :39:26. | |
great deal since then and perception of it big manufacturing, that is all | :39:26. | :39:31. | |
on one side. The big global economies that have been ripping off | :39:31. | :39:35. | |
the tax system. Ed Miliband has carefully said, you know, there is | :39:35. | :39:39. | |
onening about the large global corporations who are often not | :39:39. | :39:43. | |
paying, you know, their taxes, versus small business, Federation of | :39:43. | :39:47. | |
Small Business support the idea, that small business, who actually | :39:47. | :39:50. | |
employ many more people than the big corporation, and I do think there | :39:50. | :39:54. | |
has been a shift in attitude, what do we do about very large companies | :39:54. | :39:59. | |
that take over large parts of this country, and have no accountability | :39:59. | :40:04. | |
to the Government, to the taxpayer, to the citizens or anyone else. I | :40:04. | :40:10. | |
agree with that and something has to be done, but knee-jerk reaction to | :40:10. | :40:14. | |
this aren't going to bring them into line. All they will do is put up | :40:14. | :40:20. | |
people's defences and we end one a polarisation of attitudes on an | :40:20. | :40:25. | |
issue which is of great public concern for all involved. Labour | :40:25. | :40:32. | |
can't afford to alienate them for a reason. Labour is broke, can you | :40:32. | :40:38. | |
tell meme any CEO that is about to drop a couple of million into the | :40:38. | :40:44. | |
Labour Party coffers. There used to be lots and maybe some will come | :40:44. | :40:48. | |
back. I think it is chicken and egg, when people see, if Labour continues | :40:48. | :40:53. | |
to do well and be ahead in the polls and it looks as if they are going to | :40:53. | :40:57. | |
win, but money is less important these day, the election campaign is | :40:57. | :41:02. | |
much more about the TV camp, the TV debates and campaigns than it is | :41:02. | :41:06. | |
about big posters so Labour will have less money: I think it is true | :41:06. | :41:11. | |
if it is obvious, it isn't at the moment, if it is obvious that Ed | :41:11. | :41:14. | |
Miliband is going to be the next Prime Minister, as it was obvious | :41:15. | :41:19. | |
two or three years before I lost my seat in 1997 in humper side, I do | :41:19. | :41:23. | |
think that the money follows the party into Government. I don't think | :41:23. | :41:28. | |
that Ed Miliband should have sleepless nights at the moment about | :41:28. | :41:32. | |
the fact he he has ruffled the feathers in the energy industry.? He | :41:32. | :41:37. | |
is going to reroom to. It Maybe it will be matter less an. He may not | :41:38. | :41:43. | |
have enough money to get his tube fare in. It will be expensive. Tony | :41:43. | :41:50. | |
Blair would have won the 1997 election without spending anybody's | :41:50. | :41:52. | |
money. Thank you for joining us today. | :41:52. | :41:58. | |
The National Association of Probation Officers announced | :41:58. | :42:00. | |
yesterday that they are going to ballot for industrial action oaf the | :42:00. | :42:04. | |
Justice Secretary's plans to allow charities and private companies to | :42:04. | :42:07. | |
carry out some of their work with payment by results. The Ministry of | :42:07. | :42:10. | |
carry out some of their work with Justice say the reforms | :42:10. | :42:11. | |
carry out some of their work with necessary to break a cycle of | :42:11. | :42:15. | |
offending, particularly of those reloosed after a sentence of less | :42:15. | :42:18. | |
than a year. Giles has been looking at how the changes will work. | :42:18. | :42:23. | |
Chris Grayling is determined to changes how prisoner, particularly | :42:23. | :42:26. | |
those sentenced to under a year are dealt with when they leave prison. | :42:26. | :42:30. | |
He wants to shake-up probation, allow voluntary group, charities and | :42:31. | :42:35. | |
private companies to operate as probation supervisors an mentor, | :42:35. | :42:39. | |
paying them if reoffending is reduced. Important aims given over | :42:39. | :42:46. | |
50% those sentenced for under a year go on the refend costing the economy | :42:46. | :42:51. | |
£13 billion annually. The Probation Service think it is untested, | :42:51. | :42:57. | |
unproven, threatens public safety and is being forced through too fast | :42:57. | :43:01. | |
People won't take responsibilties and often serious further offences | :43:01. | :43:04. | |
and serious harm cases come from that group of offender, that group | :43:04. | :43:08. | |
of clients, we believe that will increase the risk to community | :43:08. | :43:11. | |
safety and that is paramount on the increase the risk to community | :43:11. | :43:14. | |
campaign of resistance to what Chris Grayling is saying. The charity the | :43:14. | :43:18. | |
St Giles Trust works with 16,000 people a year in communities and | :43:18. | :43:24. | |
prisons. They see some of the most persistent low to medium risk | :43:24. | :43:27. | |
prisons. They see some of the most offenders and have a record of | :43:27. | :43:32. | |
success, 44% of staff are ex-offender, in some projectst 0% of | :43:32. | :43:38. | |
the team have served time. Ebony thinks that is what makes them a | :43:38. | :43:43. | |
success and why taxpayers shouldn't be afraid of people like her doing | :43:43. | :43:47. | |
the work. They shouldn't be worried. I see young people involved in gangs | :43:48. | :43:53. | |
and potential doctors and nurse, our future. In ters of where I am coming | :43:54. | :43:58. | |
from, I have been to Crown Courts and often I go with my young people, | :43:58. | :44:01. | |
and I know what it is like to stand up in that dock and not only that, I | :44:01. | :44:06. | |
know what it is is like to go in and not come out. Some have pointed out | :44:06. | :44:13. | |
big companies like Serco and G4S could bid for contracts ing others | :44:13. | :44:18. | |
say if reoffending comes down does it matter who is providing the | :44:18. | :44:22. | |
service? It can make better results for both the client, for the less | :44:22. | :44:25. | |
service? It can make better results future victims of crime, and also | :44:25. | :44:29. | |
for the taxpayer in terms of savings, it has been frustrating, | :44:29. | :44:33. | |
because we are not mainstream, you know, what we do, the new and | :44:33. | :44:39. | |
radical stuff isn't part of the solution yet. Therefore we follow is | :44:39. | :44:43. | |
a time and place for change. I think that is -- that time has come. There | :44:43. | :44:50. | |
is less money round, offending rates remain stubbornly high and we know | :44:50. | :44:54. | |
for those serving less than one year there is a desperate need. What with | :44:54. | :45:00. | |
are seeing is we can do the job of meeting peep, short-term custodial | :45:00. | :45:03. | |
are seeing is we can do the job of offenders at the gate better than | :45:03. | :45:06. | |
anybody and where necessary we will work in partnership with provider, | :45:06. | :45:10. | |
so we have never argues against that. What we are against... We have | :45:10. | :45:17. | |
tackled to bring down to lowest since 2006. | :45:17. | :45:19. | |
Already, the union is looking to vote with its feet and begin | :45:19. | :45:21. | |
Already, the union is looking to industrial action. Mr Grayling won't | :45:22. | :46:54. | |
get his reforms without a fight. For prisoners with a sentence of less | :46:54. | :46:58. | |
than one year, it is not 1% of them that reoffend, it is 60%. There are | :46:58. | :47:07. | |
some bits of our public sector, often those around criminal | :47:07. | :47:10. | |
justice, which have been poorly performing for a while. Do use | :47:10. | :47:22. | |
accent that some organisations are arguing that the payment model will | :47:22. | :47:25. | |
put off some charities bidding for these contracts? Probably in some | :47:25. | :47:31. | |
cases, because if you are a small charity, you have not got a big bank | :47:31. | :47:34. | |
account and it is difficult to step in when you will not get paid for a | :47:35. | :47:38. | |
number of years. On the other hand, in other areas of the welfare state, | :47:38. | :47:43. | |
we are seeing big companies marry up with those companies like the St | :47:43. | :47:47. | |
Giles trust. This is part of the new landscape of policy. But some people | :47:47. | :47:52. | |
fear that the reality is that it will only be the big companies that | :47:52. | :47:58. | |
will apply, like G4S and Serco. Is that the sort of privatisation you | :47:58. | :48:01. | |
would like to see? The organisations which should win contracts should be | :48:01. | :48:06. | |
the ones best able to do it. I would not exclude anybody. But it would be | :48:06. | :48:11. | |
putting smaller organisations at a disadvantage. What do you say on the | :48:11. | :48:19. | |
principle, Polly? In the in-house magazine for Serco in 2009, you | :48:19. | :48:28. | |
wrote in favour of this idea? In favour of different people being | :48:28. | :48:31. | |
able to provide things. Nobody could look at the St Giles trust and not | :48:31. | :48:35. | |
say, what a good thing. There are many who could come in and have a | :48:35. | :48:39. | |
good experience. But this was how the work programme again, with the | :48:39. | :48:44. | |
idea that we were shown examples of excellent charities doing really | :48:44. | :48:47. | |
good back to work programmes. And they were used by the big companies | :48:47. | :48:49. | |
good back to work programmes. And at was what -- as what was called | :48:49. | :48:54. | |
big candy. In the end, the whole programme was carved up a big | :48:54. | :48:59. | |
companies. The smaller companies were squeezed out. The big companies | :48:59. | :49:04. | |
would then cream off the most money and give the tough Charis -- tough | :49:04. | :49:09. | |
cases to the charities. Is that an argument not to do it? You have to | :49:09. | :49:13. | |
be careful to do it where you have got the skills and the people. The | :49:13. | :49:18. | |
St Giles trust, of course, should be doing it. But the idea that you | :49:18. | :49:21. | |
should have a wholesale roll-out of this, it will be the big dump unease | :49:21. | :49:26. | |
that do it. You should have it where you have got excellent providers, | :49:26. | :49:30. | |
and not do it as a monolithic sell-off to the lowest bidder. Chris | :49:30. | :49:37. | |
Grayling has called in the City of London police to investigate alleged | :49:38. | :49:42. | |
fraud by Serco staff working on a major contract to transport | :49:42. | :49:43. | |
prisoners to and from courts across major contract to transport | :49:43. | :49:48. | |
London and East Anglia. Nine people who worked for a company paid by the | :49:48. | :49:51. | |
government for finding jobs for the unemployed have been charged with 60 | :49:51. | :49:55. | |
offences of fraud and forgery. If you have the sort of setup that | :49:55. | :49:59. | |
Polly has outlined, and those are the major players, are you confident | :49:59. | :50:03. | |
that that will provide a good service? I am, because this issue of | :50:03. | :50:10. | |
private sector involvement in public services is controversial, of | :50:10. | :50:16. | |
course, and some examples you have mentioned, another one is G4S not | :50:16. | :50:20. | |
delivering entirely on the Olympics. Against that, what is not often | :50:20. | :50:24. | |
heard is the hundreds if not thousands of contracts being on | :50:24. | :50:27. | |
successfully. Of course we don't hear about them, because they don't | :50:27. | :50:31. | |
create news, but they are happening. If we look at the military, which | :50:31. | :50:35. | |
works hand in glove with companies in everything that it does apart | :50:35. | :50:39. | |
from the actual front line soldiering, it is a positive | :50:39. | :50:44. | |
relationship. This is an idea whose time should have come a long time | :50:44. | :50:48. | |
ago, I think. As you say, the Labour government was thinking about it a | :50:48. | :50:55. | |
decade ago. It horrified me to learn recently that if you are in prison | :50:55. | :50:59. | |
for less than one year, the current state provided probation service | :50:59. | :51:03. | |
does not provide you with anything. You leave prison with £46 in your | :51:03. | :51:08. | |
pocket, and there is no mentoring or support. Chris Grayling is desperate | :51:08. | :51:13. | |
to find some mechanism beyond the probation service to ensure that | :51:13. | :51:19. | |
there is mentoring for that group of people, who tend to be the | :51:19. | :51:22. | |
reoffenders. By definition on they are probably young, and have no | :51:22. | :51:27. | |
support. I also learnt that apparently, probation officers | :51:27. | :51:31. | |
personally, who do a fantastic job, spend no more than 20% of their time | :51:32. | :51:37. | |
in many cases on face time with their clients. That is because of | :51:37. | :51:43. | |
the bureaucratic nature of the service as it currently is | :51:44. | :51:49. | |
constructed. But that is part of the things anyone who runs the service | :51:49. | :51:53. | |
will have to do. Would you prefer to see the probation service run this? | :51:53. | :51:58. | |
I would like to see a partnership. That is what the previous government | :51:59. | :52:03. | |
and the current government intend to do. The current probation service is | :52:03. | :52:11. | |
outstanding, but it is stretched. I think there is a more efficient way | :52:11. | :52:15. | |
of doing it, subject to the caveat that Polly mentioned. The service is | :52:15. | :52:23. | |
desperately stretched. You said the crucial thing. These are the people | :52:23. | :52:26. | |
you want to give most treatment to, and they get very little. They have | :52:26. | :52:32. | |
been squeezed and squeezed, and the probation service as well is a poor | :52:32. | :52:37. | |
service because it has not got the resources it needs. By putting it | :52:37. | :52:41. | |
out like this, you don't provide extra services. But you might be | :52:41. | :52:47. | |
able to run it more efficiently. There is no reason to think so. I | :52:47. | :52:57. | |
agree that in an ideal world, it is a pity that Chris Grayling's | :52:58. | :53:01. | |
predecessor Ken Clarke was not able from the word go to have a pilot. It | :53:01. | :53:07. | |
has taken us up until 2013 before they have been able to do it. I | :53:07. | :53:11. | |
suppose they have run out of time, but a pilot would have been an ideal | :53:11. | :53:18. | |
start. Prisons have been one under private management. They do better | :53:18. | :53:22. | |
on reoffending and are generally better managed. They have had some | :53:22. | :53:25. | |
terrible reports recently. But on better managed. They have had some | :53:25. | :53:29. | |
average, they are better. If the government wants to do this, fair | :53:29. | :53:35. | |
play to them. Bawdy humour, grumpy northerners and a pavement brawl. | :53:35. | :53:38. | |
It must be a week at the British seaside. | :53:38. | :53:46. | |
Big news this week. Labour's end of the pier show in Brighton, with Ed | :53:46. | :53:50. | |
Miliband showing unexpected gift for comic timing. She said, I was an | :53:50. | :54:01. | |
action hero. Why are you laughing? I can't think either. Meanwhile, the | :54:01. | :54:06. | |
other aid took a pop at David Cameron's holiday shortcomings. I | :54:06. | :54:10. | |
thought for a prime minister, it was a surprisingly small town. Talking | :54:10. | :54:16. | |
of balls, John Prescott used one of ours to make clear what he thinks | :54:16. | :54:23. | |
about HS2. Why cancel it? They are using the north to say you can have | :54:23. | :54:27. | |
20 minutes on a bloody train to Birmingham. Mind you, Lord Prescott | :54:27. | :54:32. | |
was out punched on the programme by Iain Dale, publisher of Damian | :54:32. | :54:36. | |
McBride's spin and tell memoir. Tough on protest, tougher on the | :54:36. | :54:40. | |
causes of protest. Next week, the Tories in Manchester. What is the | :54:40. | :54:49. | |
worst that could happen? Michael Brown, it was a proper | :54:49. | :54:54. | |
scrap, wasn't it, but it did land Iain Dale, the publisher, in | :54:54. | :54:59. | |
trouble. And Ian should have known better. He is a gentle soul, but I | :54:59. | :55:08. | |
always have one absolute rule. 18 years in Parliament, five general | :55:08. | :55:11. | |
elections - the voter is always right, whatever they are throwing at | :55:11. | :55:17. | |
you. Whatever eggs, whatever dogs are tempted to bite you, there is | :55:17. | :55:24. | |
only one loser if you have a for a car with somebody who is a voter. | :55:24. | :55:28. | |
The clear. I am sorry at what happened to you happened, but let | :55:28. | :55:32. | |
that be a lesson. Do you agree, Polly? There has been a police | :55:32. | :55:39. | |
caution, is that fair? I do think so. But it is funny that Iain Dale | :55:39. | :55:43. | |
was actually protecting Damian McBride, who was the one in front of | :55:43. | :55:47. | |
the cameras at the time, because Iain Dale owns the publishing | :55:47. | :55:51. | |
company that is publishing Damian McBride. He wanted the guy out of | :55:51. | :55:56. | |
the shot, but it is a funny turn of events. It did give us some rather | :55:56. | :56:04. | |
good pictures will stop moving on to Boris. We can't not mention him | :56:04. | :56:08. | |
ahead of the Conservative Party conference. He has said that he | :56:08. | :56:12. | |
missed the House of Commons when the Syria debate was going on, an | :56:12. | :56:19. | |
implication that he is heading back into Parliament? Well, he is | :56:19. | :56:24. | |
trapped, isn't he? In the sense that he is guaranteed to be mayor of | :56:24. | :56:25. | |
London until 2016. I suppose if he is guaranteed to be mayor of | :56:25. | :56:33. | |
somebody vacated a seat in London in 2015... What would he do? He could | :56:33. | :56:37. | |
just about get away with being a member of Parliament. Ken | :56:37. | :56:41. | |
Livingstone was a member of Parliament for his first year as | :56:41. | :56:45. | |
London mayor. He did not immediately give up. So he could run | :56:45. | :56:53. | |
concurrently? Supposing the people of Croydon, were they seeking a new | :56:53. | :56:57. | |
MP for Richard Ottaway's consistency, let's say they were to | :56:57. | :57:02. | |
select him as their candidate for 2015 and he were to become the | :57:02. | :57:05. | |
number of Parliament and have the dual mandate for one year, he could | :57:05. | :57:07. | |
get away with it. If he is not in dual mandate for one year, he could | :57:07. | :57:12. | |
the House of Commons after 2015 and therefore not in the House of | :57:12. | :57:15. | |
Commons until the expiry of his mayoral term, he is not a player if | :57:15. | :57:18. | |
anything should go wrong with David Cameron. But he has always reserved | :57:18. | :57:23. | |
that right. It is a football analogy, do you believe him when he | :57:23. | :57:28. | |
says he will serve all the way to the end? You can't believe anything | :57:28. | :57:32. | |
he says. He just goes, I did not really mean it. And he gets | :57:32. | :57:39. | |
forgiven. But it does show the extent to which they think they are | :57:39. | :57:43. | |
not going to win the next election, the Conservatives. They will be keen | :57:43. | :57:47. | |
to have Boris as a possible contender. Or is David Cameron less | :57:47. | :57:51. | |
worried about interventions and a contender. Or is David Cameron less | :57:51. | :57:57. | |
few loose comments from Boris Johnson ahead of this conference? I | :57:57. | :58:02. | |
don't think David Cameron is worried. I meant for after the | :58:02. | :58:08. | |
election. It shows that they are not expecting to win, and they want | :58:08. | :58:11. | |
Boris in there so that when Cameron loses, he is a contender. I would | :58:11. | :58:17. | |
put a bet on Croydon, where there was a vacancy. The retiring member | :58:17. | :58:21. | |
of Parliament, which got away, is standing down. And would London | :58:21. | :58:24. | |
object to the fact that their mayor also has a voice in the House of | :58:25. | :58:28. | |
Commons for 12 months? I would not have thought so. He could get away | :58:28. | :58:33. | |
with that. Are you trying to tell something? As Polly says, Boris | :58:33. | :58:39. | |
writes all the rules. It would only be overlapping for one year, and he | :58:39. | :58:42. | |
would be able to say to the people of Croydon and London, I have only | :58:42. | :58:46. | |
got one war year of my mayoral term to serve, and I can speak for those | :58:46. | :58:51. | |
12 months for the people of Croydon. You heard it here first. Thank you | :58:51. | :58:55. | |
to both of you for being guests of the day. That is it from us. | :58:55. | :58:58. | |
Bye-bye. | :58:58. | :59:02. |