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Morning, folks. Welcome to yet another week of conference specials.

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The Tories are in Manchester this year for their annual party shindig.

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That's the queue for the hottest ticket in town, the Chancellor's

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speech to conference. Maybe they are all sitting down already! He's

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speech to conference. Maybe they are expected to take to the stage in

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about 20 minutes' time, with a tough message for the long term unemployed

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and a few sweeteners for the hardworking. Everybody loves a hard

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worker! With all the economic indicators

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worker! suggesting the economy's on the up,

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he might even put a smile on his face. But don't hold your breath.

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We'll be carrying George Osborne's speech live and uninterrupted.

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His boss is looking happy, down to his shirt sleeves. He's got a tall

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order ahead of him if wants an outright majority at the next

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election. We'll be asking, does he stand a chance?

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He looks like a nice chap but is this man the Conservatives'

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deadliest enemy ever? We'll be talking pacts with UKIP.

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And it seems David Cameron doesn't like our Adam's balls.

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Who has got more balls, you or Mrs Thatcher?

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All that in the next hour, and with us for the duration is the former

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Conservative Party chairman, Norman Fowler. -- in the next hour and a

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half. Welcome. This conference season has been notable for the

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number of new policies which have been announced. The Liberal

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Democrats and Labour both set out new ideas which they hope will form

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part of their campaigns for the next election, and the Conservatives are

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no different. They're trying to woo voters who want to get on in the

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game of life. David Cameron wants to encourage marriage, and has made

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good on his promise to recognise it in the tax system. Married and

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civilly partnered couples will be able to share some of their unused

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personal income tax allowance, potentially worth up to £200 a year.

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The PM also says he wants to help potentially worth up to £200 a year.

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people buy their own home. So phase two of the Government's Help to Buy

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scheme will come into effect this week, three months ahead of

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schedule, offering government loans of up to 20% of a home's value to

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help people raise a deposit. But for people who are still jobless after

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two years on the existing work programme, the government's new help

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to work will mean a tougher regime as a condition for staying on

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benefits. -- be Government's new Help to Work. One option will be

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community work placements, like cleaning up litter. This morning the

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Chancellor, George Osborne, said that the long term unemployed should

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be taking up the jobs which are being created. And that is why we

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are saying, look, you will not be able to do nothing in return for

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your benefit any more. You will have to either turn up at the Jobcentre

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everyday or you will have to undertake community work, or you

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will have to get help for some underlying problem you might have

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like a drug addiction or illiteracy. We will not leave behind any more a

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generation on long-term unemployment, we will do everything

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we can to help them into work. Norman Fowler, compassionate

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conservatism, and is now the US style tough love? It is a variation

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of the old American workfare scheme, which has been around for some time.

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I think it is sensible, as far as younger people are concerned. Young

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people who refuse all offers to go back to work. We have more problems

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people who refuse all offers to go with older people, and particularly

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when it comes to some things that have been mentioned like drug use.

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The idea that you will have a sudden policy that will take them off drugs

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does not work, we all know that. As a general policy, I think it is a

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good idea. It sounds like it has a few holes in it? Any policy of that

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kind has a few questions, obviously. One of the questions is about who,

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indeed, it covers. In the vast majority of cases, I think it will

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work well. These people have been unemployed for a long time,

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obviously there will be a number of shysters in there as well, but a lot

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just have not been able to get work, they are the most vulnerable in some

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of the poorest in society. Will we really say, if you don't do what we

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want, we will take your benefits away and threw them on to the

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streets? You will have to have tough sanctions of one kind. You put one

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group, the other group are the ones working on the black economy. When I

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was doing the employment job, there were lots of people working on the

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black economy and claiming unemployment benefit at the same

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time. I think you have to look at that. I don't think you will be able

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to wave a magic wand and everything will go, it does not matter who is

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in power, but doing it this way is a very sensible step to having a

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policy as far as long-term unemployment is concerned. You don't

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want people in their 20s to remain unemployed for the rest of their

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life, basically. George Osborne will be taking to

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stage in about 15 minutes' time. We're joined now by the Treasury

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Minister, David Gauke. Treasury Secretary, the previous big flagship

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scheme of this coalition, welfare to work, has not worked, so why will

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this? The work programme has been effective. Something like 72 per

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cent of those who have been on it have come off benefits at one point

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or other. We are except that there are those who, having gone through

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the work programme, are still unemployed and we need something in

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place to ensure that we have something to address that. I think

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it is perfectly reasonable in those circumstances to identify one in

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three routes whereby people make themselves available to work. On the

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welfare to work scheme, in the first year, according to the Department

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running it, the scheme was so bad that it was worse than doing things.

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People who weren't part of the scheme got more jobs than those who

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work part. In the years two 13, you failed to hit your minimum targets.

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-- two and three. Why will this work better? That is not a fair

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representation. The work programme is focused on those most difficult

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to get back to work. Evidence is emerging that more people are

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working as a consequence of the programme, so I don't accept that.

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But nonetheless, at the end of a two year work programme there is an

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issue that there will still be people unemployed, and it is right

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that we put in place something that is fair to the general taxpayer who

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are funding the benefits, after all, but which is also a route through

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which the long-term unemployed put something back into society and get

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habits of working. And where more intensive help is necessary, that

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help should be provided. And if they don't take that help, you will take

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benefits away from some of the poorest and most vulnerable in

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society? Yes, because it isn't right that people who receive benefits do

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nothing in response. I think it is per fairly reasonable to say that

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you can only receive jobseeker's allowance if you do something, and

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either that is attending Jobcentres, demonstrating that you are looking

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for work, or community work for 30 hours a week plus ten hours a week

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looking for work, or we provide mandatory support to deal with

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issues such as drug or alcohol dependency or a literacy or

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whatever. And if they end up on the streets, that will be a price worth

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paying for your policy? We are saying that you can continue to

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receive support, but with conditions. I don't think it is in

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reasonable when tax payers' money is being spent supporting people who

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reasonable when tax payers' money is have been unemployed for three years

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or more, to say that we can get the -- give them the support but we

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expect something in return. Wages have failed to keep pace with prices

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since you have been in coalition. Labour would help freeze energy

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prices to help cope with the cost of living, what would you do? We are

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taking lots of measures to help in terms of increasing the personal

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allowance, taking people out of income tax, freezing council tax,

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freezing fuel duty, there is a long list of things. But living standards

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are still being squeezed, what else list of things. But living standards

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would you do? You can't divorce a discussion about living standards,

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and I accept that these are difficult times for many people,

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from the state of the economy. We have got to have a strong economy,

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get economic growth, deal with the long-term issues that we are faced

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with, such as high levels of borrowing, and we need to bring that

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down and start addressing debt. All of these are important. There is an

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idea that you can sin has separate the issue of living standards from

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where the economy is and making the right issue for the economy -- you

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can somehow separate. It is wrong. Labour have lost the big economic

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argument and they want to move onto something else. Living standards

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matter, but it is as the consequence of a strong economy that we get

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these rises in living standards. Labour will freeze gas and

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electricity prices, you have cut the tax on beer, so that is OK? As far

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as Labour's policy on freezing electricity prices, you know as well

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side to the flaws in that policy. We have two look at some of the

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long-term pressures, to look at the causes. We can debate for a very

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long time the flaws in Labour's policy, but we have increased the

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personal allowance and that has made a very big difference. £700 cash

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difference to millions of taxpayers, that is real help. The

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Prime Minister promised that he would legislate to put everybody on

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the lowest tariff. What happened to that? It has not happened. We are

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doing that. You are not. We are legislating in order to ensure that

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happens. That we get the lowest tariff provided to consumers. That

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is genuine. I have looked at the legislation, it does not promise and

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does not force the energy companies to put everybody on the lowest

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tariff, which is what the Prime Minister promised. We are ensuring

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that everybody is put on the lowest tariff. That is the approach we are

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taking, that is on top of a whole range of measures. Energy prices,

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Labour are committed to a decarbonisation target by 2013, that

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will put £125 on energy bills. It is not helping to address energy costs

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in the long-term. So you will cut green levies? Lou Mark Roe we are

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not committed to the decarbonisation target, it would act to electricity

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prices. We will hear from Ed Miliband that they will freeze

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energy prices, it is not coherent. When, by law, will everybody be on

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the lowest tariff? I can't give you a date for that. That is the policy

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we are approaching. Why not? Our a date for that. That is the policy

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bills are about to go up this autumn. British Gas is threatening

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huge rises. The only direct solution is to put us on the lowest tariff. I

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don't think the legislation does that, by the way, but I would like a

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date from you as to when that will happen, because people will suffer

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this winter. I will not give you a date here and now. I will check the

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position on that. The reality is that if we are going to get

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position on that. The reality is long-term energy prices down, not

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just for 20 months but 20 years, we need to ensure there is proper

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competition, we need to ensure... Why haven't you done that? We are

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always looking at what we can do. Let me ask you this, if you are

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trying to improve competition, why is it that base energy prices for

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gas and electricity before you add the green levies and taxes, why are

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they in Britain among the highest base prices in Europe? If you have a

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competitive energy market? If you base prices in Europe? If you have a

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look at energy prices as a whole, the UK is pretty well mid-table. We

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look at energy prices as a whole, don't have particularly high... That

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is after tax. Before tax, our base energy prices are the highest. If

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you look at the overall position, the UK doesn't have the highest.

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They are higher than we would like and we want to make sure we get

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competition and we don't impose a decarbonisation target that will

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make things worse. A freeze, as we heard last week, if anything, is

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likely to result in energy companies jacking up prices rather than

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reducing them. It is not a sustainable approach and the

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government is doing a lot for living standards but we cannot divorce it

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from the big economic argument, how do we get growth and deal with the

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deficit? There is a problem here for the Conservatives, Norman. You can

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have your view on the economics of freezing energy prices, but it is

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good politics, whichever way you look at it. The Conservatives, from

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that performance, have nothing specific to counter it, other than a

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general "the economy is recovering and living standards will rise when

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it does" . Yes, but Ed Miliband has opened an opportunity for the

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Conservative Party here, because he has gone back to the 1970s - price

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control, price regulation, all of that. You and I remember that sort

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of thing and the apparatus that went with it. That has put clear blue

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water between the two parties. It gives an enormous opportunity to the

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Tory party. But in the 1970s, you had Roy Hattersley running a price

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commission, trying to control the price of sugar and tea and all the

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rest. Even he admits that that was nonsense. That is not what Labour

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are proposing. They are saying the energy market does not work. The

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energy minister said so as well. So let's have a 20 month freeze on

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energy prices while we get the market to work. And there there will

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be a 20 month freeze on some other price. But the energy market is a

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cartel. But it is a complete contrast in the way the two parties

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would look at the position. I accept that there has been a response from

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the government to Ed Miliband, but if you go forward a few months, you

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will find that that is not how the public feel about it. They don't

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want to go back to price controls. They have seen energy prices rise in

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real terms by 40% since 2007. And of course, we are not in control of

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that and neither are the energy companies, but they say that when

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the wholesale price of gas goes up, their bills go up. When the price

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comes down, their bills don't go down, so it is a popular thing to

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say there something wrong with the market if prices are that sticky.

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Let's freeze them for a brief period and sort out the market. It is

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immediate and popular, but does the government start intervening in the

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market? I am not saying the market is working perfectly, but there are

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different ways of tackling that. Which the coalition is not doing.

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The minister could tell is nothing they are doing to improve the energy

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market. But you gave him a very tough interview. He was a treasure

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in minister. Are the Treasury across everything? You can't expect to be

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an expert on everything. He is running the country. My point is

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that there is a big contrast in the way the two parties are looking at

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it, whether you go with a market approach or government intervention.

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You are still very lively. Time for our daily quiz. The question is,

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which Tory cabinet Minister has spent time at a £2500 fat farm in

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Austria? Was it George Osborne, Eric Pickles, Patrick McLoughlin or

:19:09.:19:14.

Michael Gove? At the end of the show, Norman will give us the

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correct answer. Will I? So, what is the mood like in beautiful

:19:25.:19:29.

Manchester? Who better to tell us than two of Fleet Street's finest?

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Sadly, they were not available. Instead with, we have the

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Spectator's James Forsyth and Rachel Sylvester from the Times. Rachel,

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are they talking a lot about the possibility of a constituency by

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constituency electoral pact with UKIP? Nigel Farage is here today, so

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UKIP are dominating the whole thing. I don't think the Tories have worked

:19:58.:20:01.

out how to deal with him and the way in which local MPs will want to make

:20:01.:20:06.

deals with UKIP. We interviewed George Osborne last week, and he

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said the Tories had to win an overall majority. But he would not

:20:11.:20:16.

go into what would happen if an individual MP made a deal. He would

:20:16.:20:20.

not say whether or not they would be sacked. They are trying to work out

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what is realistic. It is a rum do, James, if a leader of a minor party

:20:27.:20:32.

can come to the giant Tory party and dominate events even though he is

:20:32.:20:37.

not allowed in the conference? UKIP is only part of the problem the

:20:37.:20:42.

Tories have to deal with, but if you go to a fringe, it is what the

:20:42.:20:47.

activists want to talk about. The reason for that is, you have seen

:20:47.:20:52.

Tory activists going over to UKIP. They all know someone who now votes

:20:52.:20:58.

UKIP. That is why it is creating a problem. I think to be's

:20:58.:21:05.

intervention by Nigel Farage is actually a weakness. He is admitting

:21:05.:21:10.

that the best UKIP can hope for is to come top in the European

:21:10.:21:14.

elections. He is saying, if we come top in the European elections, I

:21:14.:21:23.

will pull the dogs off after that. It is creating a strangely retro

:21:23.:21:26.

atmosphere here. It is all marriage, tax allowances. There is Maggie beer

:21:26.:21:37.

for sale. The Tories are almost caught in the headlights of UKIP,

:21:37.:21:40.

and the danger is that they are alienating more centrist voters who

:21:40.:21:44.

would otherwise be attracted to them, those who were originally

:21:44.:21:47.

attracted to the more compassionate conservatism that David Cameron

:21:47.:21:53.

offered. James, you are about to become a dad, you will need one of

:21:53.:22:02.

those iron baby T-shirts. I think you will see the Tories trying to

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mix up these messages designed to appeal to UKIP voters, whether on

:22:06.:22:11.

the European Commission of human rights, combined with more centrist

:22:11.:22:14.

messages on health and education. The big challenge for Tories is what

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to do about the cost of living. George Osborne is trying to say it

:22:18.:22:21.

is really about the economy and that you can't trust Labour with the cost

:22:22.:22:26.

of living. But if you talk to the Tories here from the most marginal

:22:26.:22:31.

seats, they will say this energy price freeze announcement has cut

:22:31.:22:35.

through, and they need a better response to that. Rachel, at least

:22:35.:22:45.

Labour has come up with something specific and easily understood. If

:22:45.:22:50.

you vote for Labour, your energy prices will not rise for 20 months.

:22:50.:22:55.

You go have a debate about before or after that, but the 20 months, they

:22:55.:22:59.

are frozen. Is it enough for the Conservatives to talk in general

:22:59.:23:05.

terms by saying with an economic recovery, you're living standards

:23:05.:23:10.

will recover? It is a bit vague. I don't think it is enough. It is all

:23:10.:23:14.

very well going on about a global raise, but if people are hobbling to

:23:14.:23:18.

the corner shop to get a pint of milk, they don't care about a global

:23:18.:23:22.

raise will stop there sometimes a lack of urgency in the way they talk

:23:22.:23:27.

about the cost of living issues. They need to understand that people

:23:27.:23:31.

asked ugly. They say they understand, but they have not

:23:31.:23:35.

demonstrated that people are struggling in their policies. These

:23:35.:23:40.

speeches are leaked so far in advance that we already know what is

:23:40.:23:44.

in them, but has he got something up his sleeve? Mr Miliband had the

:23:44.:23:49.

energy freeze up his sleeve for the last minute. Do we get is a prize to

:23:49.:23:56.

keep is interested? He will want to emphasise the welfare issue. The

:23:56.:24:02.

Tories can't do fairness through tax cuts, so they will try and do it

:24:02.:24:07.

through rebalancing the system and ending be something for nothing

:24:07.:24:10.

culture. George Osborne is taken with how popular the benefits cap

:24:10.:24:14.

has been, and he is looking for a repeat of that success. Rachel, what

:24:14.:24:19.

is the overall mood that? The Conservatives have had a good

:24:20.:24:21.

summer, partly because Labour had a Conservatives have had a good

:24:21.:24:25.

bad summer. The economy is recovering on a broad range of

:24:25.:24:29.

indicators, but they still face this index all mountain to climb for an

:24:30.:24:31.

indicators, but they still face this overall majority. So are they

:24:31.:24:37.

confident, depressed? Do they think it could be another hung parliament?

:24:37.:24:42.

They seem a bit thrown in. They were thrown by the Ed Miliband

:24:43.:24:44.

announcement on price freezes. They thrown by the Ed Miliband

:24:44.:24:49.

are convinced that it is wrong, but they don't seem to know how to deal

:24:49.:24:52.

with it tactically. They are thrown by the UKIP threat, and the feeling

:24:52.:25:02.

is slightly dis- combo dilated. -- this combo plate. That is a good

:25:02.:25:07.

American word. The Tory party is not sure to celebrate the fact that

:25:07.:25:11.

there is now clear red water between them and Labour or whether the

:25:11.:25:17.

centre ground has shifted so that they need to be careful about how to

:25:17.:25:23.

respond to Ed Miliband. The announcement on price freezes is

:25:23.:25:29.

clearly politically popular. Cameron is also trying to reassure his party

:25:29.:25:32.

that he really does want image are the. He will have to get the message

:25:32.:25:39.

across that he is not just banking on another coalition with Nick Clegg

:25:39.:25:44.

and will really try to win. So they are talking about things they know

:25:44.:25:48.

the Lib Dems will not agree on, like the human rights act. It is also

:25:48.:25:50.

about, whose side are you on? David the human rights act. It is also

:25:50.:25:56.

Cameron was worried that the Tories would be seen as being on the side

:25:56.:25:58.

Cameron was worried that the Tories of the big energy companies rather

:25:58.:25:59.

than the consumer. It is about of the big energy companies rather

:25:59.:26:05.

showing that you are on the side of the hard-working families, misspelt,

:26:05.:26:14.

as my colleague noted. But can they demonstrate that with their

:26:14.:26:19.

speeches, that they are on the side of ordinary people, rather than the

:26:19.:26:25.

wealthy elite? Or big business, the energy companies and the banks and

:26:25.:26:30.

the wealthy donors who support the Tory party? James, should we read

:26:30.:26:36.

anything into the fact that it is George Osborne making the

:26:36.:26:41.

announcement, not Iain Duncan Smith, the welfare secretary? George

:26:41.:26:47.

Osborne is a man with political ambitions and he knows this will be

:26:47.:26:51.

popular with the country. He is dammed if he is going to let someone

:26:51.:26:58.

else have it. And MP said to me this morning, by George, George's stock

:26:58.:27:03.

is rising. Perhaps people wrote him off a year ago, but now he is

:27:04.:27:08.

gaining popularity in the party. If he can be the man who takes the

:27:08.:27:12.

credit for a recovery, he will be back in the running for the

:27:12.:27:16.

leadership. But the Tory leadership is a marathon, not a sprint. With

:27:16.:27:20.

the omnishambles Budget, George Osborne over. He has now dusted

:27:20.:27:24.

himself down and he will be a contender when Cameron decides to

:27:24.:27:29.

go. But that depends on the Tories winning the next election. Osborne

:27:29.:27:33.

and Cameron's fortunes are so in extra doubly linked that if the

:27:33.:27:36.

Tories lose the election in 2015, that is the end for George Osborne.

:27:36.:27:41.

But if the Tories win that overall majority, there will not be a

:27:41.:27:45.

leadership contest, according to Mrs Cameron, because she says she wants

:27:45.:27:46.

leadership contest, according to Mrs her husband to stay in power until

:27:46.:27:51.

2020, and she is a powerful woman. I don't think any prime minister who

:27:51.:27:57.

has just won his first overall majority would want to stand down

:27:57.:28:01.

straight. Cameron would want to keep going. But is he the prime minister

:28:01.:28:08.

who finally manages to leave the stage with the crowd wanting more?

:28:08.:28:13.

If he does win a second term, the European referendum will be an

:28:13.:28:21.

obvious sticking point. If he wins that, he will be able to say, I have

:28:21.:28:23.

settled the historic question of that, he will be able to say, I have

:28:24.:28:28.

Britain's relationship with Europe. That might be the time for him to

:28:28.:28:33.

retire. I would not read too much into the 2020 comment. But he would

:28:33.:28:38.

also have to resign if he gets an overall majority, he goes to

:28:38.:28:43.

Europe, the renegotiations are not successful, he has a referendum in

:28:43.:28:46.

which little changes with our relationship with Brussels, and he

:28:46.:28:51.

loses the referendum? Then he is toast, is neat? The referendum

:28:51.:28:55.

pledge may come back to bite on. It may keep the right-wingers happy for

:28:55.:29:02.

now, but in the end, he will have to be in the yes camp and say that he

:29:02.:29:08.

has got adequate reforms from Europe. And a lot of his party will

:29:08.:29:13.

want to be in the no camp. So it could end up dividing the Tory party

:29:13.:29:18.

in an attempt to bring unity in the short term. You have got to think,

:29:18.:29:27.

how much back does Brussels -- how much back from Brussels does David

:29:27.:29:30.

Cameron needs to get to stay in the EU? That is an awful lot, and it

:29:30.:29:35.

might be more than is on offer. James, is it possible that some

:29:35.:29:41.

individual Tory MPs on the very Eurosceptic wing will try to do a

:29:41.:29:48.

constituency deal with UKIP? I think you will see a handful of them do a

:29:48.:29:54.

deal with UKIP. You will see a lot more of them make a play to UKIP

:29:54.:29:59.

voters, saying, I will be campaigning for Britain to leave in

:29:59.:30:04.

the referendum, so vote for me. It will be like 1997, when you saw Tory

:30:04.:30:09.

MPs who had a particular referendum party problem, including David

:30:09.:30:16.

Cameron. And the Conservative Party HQ turned a blind eye. And will UKIP

:30:16.:30:21.

have enough candidates to stand people in every seat? They will have

:30:21.:30:24.

to choose the constituencies where they have a hope of doing reasonably

:30:25.:30:46.

well. You would have thought they might back off from some

:30:46.:30:48.

constituencies where there are very tough, Eurosceptic Tory MPs. I know

:30:48.:30:51.

you want to see the Chancellor in action. Karren Brady is still

:30:51.:30:53.

talking. But is why the Chancellor is ten minutes late on his allotted

:30:53.:30:56.

time to speak. If you could ask the wind-up, we would be grateful. Other

:30:56.:31:04.

than the leader's speech, the Chancellor's speech is usually the

:31:04.:31:12.

biggest? Like you, I am intrigued that it is the Chancellor making

:31:12.:31:13.

biggest? Like you, I am intrigued this big announcement about

:31:13.:31:19.

welfare. You would have been mightily annoyed if you're

:31:19.:31:22.

Chancellor had taken that away from you? I think I might have been. I

:31:22.:31:27.

think Nigel Lawson and I would have had yet another of our periodic

:31:27.:31:34.

disagreements. I'm intrigued by that. I was also intrigued by what

:31:34.:31:39.

everyone is saying about UKIP. Frankly, we have been around this

:31:39.:31:47.

course before with the Liberals, the Referendum Party and a bit with the

:31:47.:31:52.

1997 election, which was not spectacularly successful, when

:31:52.:31:55.

people said we will divide in the party. I think as far as UKIP is

:31:55.:32:03.

concerned, it makes no sense for us to go into any kind of alliance

:32:03.:32:06.

locally, nationally or anywhere else, because it gives

:32:06.:32:10.

respectability to UKIP. We are talking about the right-wing of the

:32:11.:32:15.

Conservative Party, that any alliance with UKIP brings into play

:32:15.:32:21.

the centre and the left of the Conservative Party. They will not

:32:21.:32:25.

want that, people like me don't want that. If you were still party

:32:25.:32:30.

chairman and you learned that a right-wing, Eurosceptic Tory MP was

:32:30.:32:34.

doing an electoral pact with UKIP, what would you do? Bring him in, say

:32:35.:32:40.

it is an accept the book and if he continued, you would have to get rid

:32:41.:32:45.

of him, it is that straightforward -- bring him in, say it is not

:32:45.:32:51.

acceptable. Here is George Osborne at last.

:32:51.:33:02.

Thank you, Karren Brady, that was a brilliant introduction. You're

:33:02.:33:09.

hired! At every party conference, since the

:33:09.:33:14.

election, as we have gathered, the At every party conference, since the

:33:15.:33:19.

question for us, the question for me, the question for our country,

:33:19.:33:26.

has, is economic plan working? They are not asking that question now.

:33:26.:33:33.

The deficit down by a surge, exports doubled to China, taxpayers' money

:33:33.:33:40.

back from the banks, not going in. 1.4 million new jobs created by

:33:40.:33:45.

businesses, 1000 new jobs announced in this city today. Our plan is

:33:45.:33:57.

working. We held our nerve in the face of

:33:57.:34:02.

huge pressure. Now Britain is turning a corner. And that is down

:34:02.:34:10.

to the resolve and the sacrifice of the people of this country. And, for

:34:10.:34:16.

that, we owe the British people a huge, heartfelt thank you. Thanks to

:34:16.:34:26.

you, Britain is on the right track. So now families working hard to get

:34:26.:34:31.

on, anxious about the future, are asking these questions start can we

:34:31.:34:36.

make the recovery last? Will I feel it in my pocket? My approach has

:34:36.:34:41.

always been to be straight with people. So let me answer these

:34:41.:34:46.

questions directly. Yes, we can make the recovery a lasting one. But it

:34:46.:34:52.

won't happen by it self. We have to deal with our debts and see through

:34:52.:34:58.

our plan. Yes, if the recovery is sustained, then families. To feel

:34:58.:35:02.

better off. Because what matters most for living standards are jobs

:35:02.:35:07.

and lower mortgage rates and lower taxes. Family finances will not be

:35:07.:35:16.

transformed overnight, because Britain was made much poorer by the

:35:16.:35:21.

crash. That is what happens when you get a catastrophic failure of

:35:21.:35:25.

economic policy of the kind we saw under Labour, when no one prepares

:35:25.:35:28.

economic policy of the kind we saw in the boom for the bust, when the

:35:28.:35:32.

banks get bailed out and when government budget spiral out of

:35:32.:35:34.

control. We will never let that government budget spiral out of

:35:34.:35:37.

happen to our country again. APPLAUSE

:35:37.:35:47.

I share non-offer personal as I saw from the Leader of the Opposition

:35:47.:35:54.

last week. For him, the global free market equates to a race to the

:35:54.:36:00.

bottom, with the games being shared among a small and smaller group. --

:36:00.:36:08.

the gain being shared. That is the argument that Karl Marx made in Das

:36:08.:36:19.

L. It is what socialist beliefs, but socialism brings this about and it

:36:19.:36:22.

is the historic work of this party to put it right. Because attempts

:36:22.:36:30.

is the historic work of this party crisis and confiscate wealth crush

:36:30.:36:35.

endeavour and blight aspiration. And the people who suffer are not the

:36:36.:36:40.

rich but the hundreds and thousands put out of work, the millions made

:36:40.:36:46.

poorer, the generation whose lives are blighted. It is working people

:36:46.:36:50.

who pay the price when the economy is ruined. That is what Labour did

:36:50.:36:56.

to the workers, and the British people will never let them forget

:36:56.:37:02.

it. And so, by contrast, I'm an optimist

:37:02.:37:09.

about the world. I'm a believer in freedom and free markets. I see the

:37:09.:37:17.

global economy growing. I see hundreds of people in places like

:37:17.:37:20.

India and China leaving grinding poverty to join it. That is

:37:20.:37:26.

something to celebrate. It doesn't have to be a threat to this country.

:37:26.:37:32.

It is a huge opportunity. But we have to understand that the Wealth

:37:32.:37:35.

of nations depends on some basic truths. Jobs are only created when

:37:35.:37:43.

people build businesses that are successful and can expand. Exports

:37:43.:37:45.

only happen if those businesses are making things that others in the

:37:45.:37:49.

only happen if those businesses are world wants to buy. Investment only

:37:49.:37:54.

flows if your country is a more attractive place to do business than

:37:54.:37:55.

flows if your country is a more other countries. And the wealth this

:37:55.:37:59.

creates could be spread widely across the nation, but only when

:37:59.:38:04.

every child gets a good education, when each adult has the incentive to

:38:04.:38:08.

every child gets a good education, work and every family gets to keep

:38:08.:38:13.

more of what they earn. And to achieve all these things, you need

:38:13.:38:19.

to get the fundamentals right. The economic stability, sound public

:38:19.:38:23.

finances, says banks, excellent schools and colleges, competitive

:38:24.:38:29.

taxes, amazing science, welfare that works. There is no short cuts to any

:38:29.:38:34.

of these things, just the hard graft of putting right what went so badly

:38:34.:38:38.

wrong and forging a new attitude in this country that says, we are not

:38:38.:38:43.

afraid of the future, because we intend to shape it.

:38:43.:38:55.

So there is no feeling at this conference of a task completed or a

:38:55.:39:03.

victory one. We know it is not over. Until we fix the addiction to debts

:39:03.:39:07.

that got this country into this mess in the first place, it is not over.

:39:07.:39:12.

Until we can help hard-working people to own a home, save and start

:39:12.:39:17.

a business. Until we have helped the long-term unemployed, it is not

:39:17.:39:19.

over. Until there is real faith that long-term unemployed, it is not

:39:19.:39:23.

our children's lives will be better than our own, it is not over. The

:39:23.:39:28.

battle to turn Britain around is not even close to being over, and we

:39:28.:39:31.

will finish what we have started. APPLAUSE

:39:31.:39:43.

What I offer is a serious plan for a grown-up country. An economic plan

:39:43.:39:50.

What I offer is a serious plan for a for hard-working people that will

:39:50.:39:55.

create jobs, keep mortgage rates low, let people keep more of their

:39:55.:40:00.

income, tax-free. It is the only route to better living standards.

:40:00.:40:06.

Without a credible economic plan, you don't have a living standards

:40:06.:40:11.

plan. We understand that there can be no recovery for all if there is

:40:11.:40:18.

no recovery at all. In Italy, the deadlock in Washington this week,

:40:18.:40:23.

these are stark reminders that the debt crisis is not over. And yet the

:40:23.:40:31.

last fortnight has shown there is no serious plan coming from any other

:40:31.:40:39.

party. The liberal Democrats were jostling for position. I have to

:40:39.:40:43.

tell you today, and click has informed us of his intention to form

:40:43.:40:48.

a new coalition. For the first time, he is intending to create a

:40:48.:40:52.

full working relationship with Vince Cable.

:40:52.:40:52.

LAUGHTER Mind you, at their conference, Vince

:40:52.:41:04.

Cable did something that was undeniably Tory. If I had been

:41:04.:41:07.

there, I wouldn't have turned about the Lib Dem economic debate either!

:41:07.:41:12.

At least they had an economic debate. Labour's economic

:41:12.:41:17.

At least they had an economic announcements amounted to declaring

:41:17.:41:22.

war on enterprise, tax rise on business and an apprenticeship

:41:22.:41:24.

policy that turned out to be illegal. And then there was the

:41:24.:41:30.

energy announcement that completely unravelled. Now, any politician

:41:30.:41:35.

would love to tell you that they can wave a magic wand and freeze your

:41:35.:41:40.

energy bill, everyone wants cheaper energy. That is why we are

:41:40.:41:43.

legislating to put everyone on the cheapest tariff. But I will tell you

:41:44.:41:48.

what happens when you draw up policy on the back of a fag packet -

:41:48.:41:54.

companies will just jack up their prices before, so in the short-term,

:41:54.:41:57.

prices go up, and companies would prices before, so in the short-term,

:41:57.:41:59.

not invest this country and build the power station we need so, in the

:41:59.:42:06.

long term, prices go up. That is Labour 's offer - get hammered with

:42:06.:42:11.

high prices now, high prices later, higher prices for all. Don't worry,

:42:11.:42:17.

there will be a phoney freeze on prices in between. How should I put

:42:17.:42:19.

it? Britain can do better than that. Perhaps with all this talk of

:42:19.:42:32.

blackouts, we have been a bit unfair on Ed Miliband's leadership. We used

:42:33.:42:36.

blackouts, we have been a bit unfair to think light is on, but nobody's

:42:36.:42:41.

home. Turns out we were only half right.

:42:41.:42:46.

LAUGHTER .

:42:46.:42:50.

Now, I remember when we were in opposition. We made commitments and

:42:50.:42:53.

unworkable promises to abolish things like student fees. We felt

:42:53.:42:59.

good at conferences like this. And then we lost elections. In David

:42:59.:43:03.

Cameron got us to face the truth about the way we had come to be

:43:03.:43:08.

seen. He forced us to be credible, to reach out to all parts of

:43:08.:43:13.

society. Last week, Labour didn't do that. They retreated. Ed Miliband

:43:13.:43:22.

said he could make all of our problems disappear and send a cheque

:43:22.:43:23.

said he could make all of our in the post. It is not based on

:43:23.:43:25.

truth. More borrowing and more debt in the post. It is not based on

:43:25.:43:32.

remains their economic policy. But they no longer dare talk to the

:43:33.:43:37.

British people about it. Instead, they would much rather talk about

:43:37.:43:41.

the cost of living, as if the cost of living was somehow detached from

:43:41.:43:47.

the performance of the economy. You ask the citizens of Greece what

:43:47.:43:50.

happens to living standards when the economy fails. He asks on with a

:43:50.:43:52.

happens to living standards when the mortgage what happens to their

:43:52.:43:54.

happens to living standards when the living standards when mortgage rates

:43:54.:43:59.

go up -- you ask someone with a mortgage. Just a 1 cent rise means

:43:59.:44:05.

an extra £1000 on the average bill. You ask the citizens of this country

:44:05.:44:09.

what would be disastrous for living standards and they would say higher

:44:09.:44:14.

borrowing, higher welfare costs, higher taxes. These are not the

:44:14.:44:17.

solution is to lower living standards, they are the cause of

:44:17.:44:19.

them. This country is paying a very, very

:44:19.:44:33.

high price for that lesson. If you want to know the consequences of an

:44:33.:44:39.

Ed Miliband premiership, just look at a plan of the man who knows him

:44:39.:44:49.

best, his brother. David Miliband - one, leave Parliament, two, leave

:44:49.:44:55.

politics, three, leave the country, four dedicate your life to

:44:55.:45:05.

international rescue. David and Ed Miliband, the greatest

:45:05.:45:10.

sibling rivalry since the Bible. Kane and not very able. Now, our own

:45:10.:45:18.

sibling rivalry since the Bible. rescue mission for the British

:45:18.:45:19.

economy is far from complete. People rescue mission for the British

:45:19.:45:25.

know the difference between a quick fix from and a credible economic

:45:25.:45:30.

argument. Here is our serious plan for a grown-up country. First, sound

:45:30.:45:36.

money. The bedrock of any sustained recovery and improved living

:45:36.:45:41.

standards is economic stability. That is what the hard work and the

:45:41.:45:45.

sacrifice of the last three years has been about. In that time, they

:45:45.:45:51.

brought the deficit down by a third, and the British public know that

:45:51.:45:55.

whoever is elected will face some very hard choices. Let me tell you

:45:55.:46:02.

about the principles I bring to that task. Our country's problem is not

:46:02.:46:07.

that it taxes too little, it is that its government spends too much.

:46:07.:46:21.

While no responsible Chancellor ever rules out tax changes, I think it

:46:21.:46:25.

can be done by reducing spending and capping welfare, not by raising

:46:25.:46:31.

taxes. Surely the lesson of the last arcade is that it is not enough to

:46:31.:46:35.

clean up the mess after it has happened will stop you have got to

:46:35.:46:39.

take action before it happens. It should be obvious to anyone that in

:46:39.:46:44.

the years running up to the crash, this country should have been

:46:44.:46:47.

running a budget surplus. That is what we mean when we say they did

:46:47.:46:52.

not fix the roof when the sun was shining. Let us never make that same

:46:52.:47:02.

mistake again. Never again should anyone doing my job be so foolish

:47:02.:47:07.

are so deluded, as to believe they have abolished the age-old cycle of

:47:07.:47:14.

boom and bust. When we have dealt with Labour's deficit, we will have

:47:14.:47:20.

a surplus in good times as insurance against difficult times ahead. And

:47:20.:47:31.

provided that the recovery is sustained, our goal is to achieve

:47:31.:47:36.

that surplus in the next Parliament. That will bear down on our debts,

:47:36.:47:41.

prepare us for the next rainy day. It will require discipline and

:47:41.:47:44.

spending control, because if we want to protect the things we care about,

:47:44.:47:48.

like generous tensions and decent health care, and buying the best

:47:48.:47:54.

equipment for the brave men and women who fight in our armed forces,

:47:54.:47:58.

all of us have to confront the costs of modern government and cap working

:47:58.:48:05.

age welfare bills. And only if we properly controlled public

:48:05.:48:07.

expenditure will we be able to keep lowering taxes are hard-working

:48:07.:48:13.

people in a way that lasts. I have never been for tax cuts that are

:48:13.:48:19.

borrowed. I want low taxes that are paid for. We will also go on

:48:19.:48:24.

investing in the essential infrastructure of our country, the

:48:24.:48:29.

roads and railways and science and communications that are the backbone

:48:29.:48:39.

of the future economy. So we should commit, alongside to running a

:48:39.:48:41.

surplus and capping welfare, to grow our capital spending at least in

:48:41.:48:44.

line with our national income. These principles will form the foundation

:48:44.:48:45.

line with our national income. These of our public finance policy. I will

:48:46.:48:52.

set out the details next year. For those who ask, is this necessary? ,

:48:52.:48:58.

I say, what is the alternative? To run a deficit for ever? To leave our

:48:58.:49:04.

children with our debts? To leave Britain perilously exposed the next

:49:04.:49:09.

time the storm comes? This crisis took us to the brink. If we don't

:49:09.:49:14.

reduce our debts, the next could push us over. Let's learn from the

:49:14.:49:18.

mistakes that got him phew into this mess. Let us about, never again.

:49:18.:49:24.

This time, we will run a surplus and fix the roof when the sun shines.

:49:24.:49:39.

First, our plan secures sound public finances. Second, it supports the

:49:40.:49:44.

aspirations of hard-working people and let them keep more of the money

:49:44.:49:51.

they earn. We are increasing to £10,000 the amount you can earn

:49:51.:49:54.

before you pay a penny of income tax. That is a real achievement,

:49:55.:50:00.

delivered in budget after budget by tax. That is a real achievement,

:50:00.:50:03.

a Conservative Chancellor of the Exchequer. The Liberal Democrats

:50:03.:50:13.

like to point out that during the election, David Cameron said he

:50:13.:50:15.

like to point out that during the would love to increase the tax

:50:15.:50:19.

allowance, but warned that it was not easy to afford. He did say that,

:50:19.:50:25.

and he was right. The difficult thing is not increasing the tax free

:50:26.:50:29.

allowance, the difficult thing is paying for it, but we have done it.

:50:29.:50:35.

The result, and income tax cuts for 25 million people, equivalent to a

:50:36.:50:39.

rise of almost 10% in the national minimum wage. Real money in

:50:39.:50:44.

people's pockets. For we are the party of hard-working people. To

:50:44.:50:50.

anyone who questions that, I say, go to the workplaces of Britain, like

:50:50.:50:55.

the huge Morrisons in Sittingbourne. Meet the forklift truck drivers

:50:55.:51:01.

there. Go to the war button factory. Meet the people who work

:51:01.:51:07.

all hours. Hard-working people, better off because of Conservative

:51:07.:51:12.

tax cuts. These are the people we stand alongside. And because we are

:51:12.:51:25.

getting the public finances back under control, we have been able to

:51:25.:51:30.

help in other ways, too. Freezing council tax, cutting beer duty,

:51:30.:51:35.

tax-free childcare. Thanks to our prime minister, now a £1000 married

:51:35.:51:41.

couple's allowance, two, a conservative is made and more than

:51:41.:51:51.

delivered. -- a Conservative promise made and delivered. We have cut fuel

:51:51.:51:57.

duty, abolished Labour's fuel escalator. I can tell you today that

:51:57.:52:01.

provided we can find the savings to pay for it, I want to freeze fuel

:52:01.:52:05.

duty for the rest of this Parliament. Conservatives don't just

:52:06.:52:09.

talk about being on the side of hard-working people, we show it be

:52:09.:52:13.

in day out in the policies we deliver.

:52:13.:52:25.

Now, people aspire to keep more of their income tax-free. And many

:52:25.:52:30.

aspire to run their own business and work for themselves. My parents

:52:30.:52:38.

planned carefully, took a risk, set up a small manufacturing company

:52:38.:52:39.

planned carefully, took a risk, set more than 40 years ago. The company

:52:39.:52:47.

grew, they employed more people. In the life of the family business, the

:52:47.:52:52.

orders won, the exports, these were the backdrop of my childhood. I am

:52:52.:52:57.

hugely proud of what my parents achieved, and I am proud that they

:52:57.:53:11.

are in this hall today. And you should know this about me. I will

:53:11.:53:16.

always be on the side of those who use their savings, take a risk, put

:53:16.:53:21.

everything on the line to set up their own company. Labour increased

:53:21.:53:26.

small business tax, I have cut it. Labour were extending business rates

:53:27.:53:31.

to the smallest firms, I have exempted them. Now our new

:53:31.:53:34.

employment allowance will take a third of all businesses out of

:53:34.:53:38.

paying national insurance altogether. We Conservatives are

:53:38.:53:42.

nothing if we are not the party of small business, and that is the way

:53:42.:53:55.

it is going to stay. And we are the party of homeownership, to. I am the

:53:55.:54:02.

first person to say we must be vigilant in avoiding the mistakes of

:54:02.:54:06.

the past. That is why I gave to the Bank of England the powers to stop

:54:06.:54:09.

dangerous housing bubbles emerging. Bank of England the powers to stop

:54:09.:54:13.

But too many people asked ill being denied the dream of owning their own

:54:13.:54:18.

home -- they are still being denied. So instead of starting the next

:54:18.:54:25.

phase of home buying next year, we are starting it next week. There are

:54:25.:54:28.

some people, many living in the richest parts of London, who say we

:54:29.:54:32.

shouldn't be doing these things. I have this to say. Take your

:54:32.:54:39.

arguments down the road to where house prices have fallen for the

:54:39.:54:43.

last five years. Take your arguments to Bury or Morecambe, where young

:54:43.:54:47.

working couples are still living at home with their parents. Take your

:54:47.:54:48.

working couples are still living at arguments to our great towns and

:54:49.:54:52.

cities where there are families who have saved for years, earning decent

:54:52.:54:57.

salaries, who can afford mortgage repayments, but can't possibly

:54:57.:55:02.

afford it deposit being asked by the banks these days. Take your

:55:02.:55:05.

arguments to those families and say this policy is not right, you

:55:05.:55:10.

shouldn't be allowed to buy your own home. I will tell you what they will

:55:10.:55:12.

shouldn't be allowed to buy your own say back. It is all right for you,

:55:12.:55:16.

you have got your own home. We have been saving for years, what about

:55:16.:55:20.

us? I know whose side this party is on. We are the party of love -- the

:55:20.:55:40.

party of aspiration, and now the party of the Cameron's help to buy.

:55:40.:55:45.

We are the party of homeownership, and we are going to let the country

:55:45.:55:47.

We are the party of homeownership, know it. We will also make sure no

:55:47.:55:58.

one is left behind as our economy recovers. Our goal is nothing short

:55:58.:56:05.

of a recovery for all. That is the third part of our economic plan.

:56:05.:56:10.

Lectures from the left on fairness, frankly, stick in the throat. Under

:56:10.:56:14.

their government, the richest paid frankly, stick in the throat. Under

:56:14.:56:17.

lower tax rates than their cleaners on tax avoidance boomed, inequality

:56:17.:56:23.

increased, youth unemployment doubled, the gap between the north

:56:23.:56:26.

and south grew and the number of households where no one worked

:56:26.:56:30.

reached record levels. Fair? That was the fairest government of all.

:56:30.:56:38.

-- the un-fairest government of all. Contrast that with what we have

:56:38.:56:48.

done. When I say we, I mean we Conservatives. I sit at that cabinet

:56:48.:56:55.

table, and I know who has really put forward the policies that are

:56:55.:56:58.

delivering a fairer society. The pupil premium to support the most

:56:58.:57:00.

disadvantaged children, that was Michael Gove's idea, front and

:57:00.:57:06.

centre of the last Conservative manifesto. Our commitment on

:57:06.:57:10.

international aid, delivered by Andrew Mitchell and Justin

:57:10.:57:13.

Greening. Action on domestic violence, that is Theresa May. The

:57:13.:57:17.

International campaign to get raped recognised as a war crime, led by

:57:17.:57:22.

William Hague. New care standards for the elderly - Jeremy Hunt. The

:57:22.:57:25.

anti-avoidance measures in budget after budget, they are the

:57:25.:57:29.

painstaking work of our Conservative Treasury team, David Gauke and his

:57:29.:57:36.

colleagues. Rights for gay people, the biggest rise in the state

:57:36.:57:40.

pension, all delivered by Conservatives in government. And the

:57:40.:57:43.

overhaul of our entire welfare system, making sure work always

:57:43.:57:47.

pays, that is Iain Duncan Smith's life mission. These are all

:57:47.:58:05.

achievements of a modern, reformed Conservative Party that we have

:58:05.:58:10.

worked so hard together to create. But as we change our party and

:58:10.:58:15.

govern our country, there is more to do. I am part of a generation of

:58:15.:58:21.

Conservatives that came after the great struggles of the 1980s. That

:58:21.:58:26.

government rescued the country from eight tales bling -- a tailspin into

:58:26.:58:33.

decline. It renewed the foundations of cities like Manchester, but we

:58:33.:58:34.

decline. It renewed the foundations should not pretend we got every

:58:34.:58:39.

thing right. Old problems were solved, but new problems emerged. In

:58:39.:58:43.

some parts of the country, workless nurse took hold and we did not do

:58:43.:58:49.

enough to stop that -- workless nests. As a local member of

:58:49.:58:51.

Parliament, I know some parts of the north of England, we still have to

:58:51.:58:57.

work hard to overcome long memories of people who thought we did not

:58:57.:58:59.

work hard to overcome long memories care. Labour made the problem of

:58:59.:59:04.

welfare dependency worse. By the time they left office, 5 million

:59:04.:59:09.

people were on out of work benefits. What a waste of life and talent, a

:59:09.:59:13.

generation of people recycled through the job centre, collecting

:59:13.:59:19.

their dole cheques year in year out. No one seemed to notice. And opened

:59:19.:59:22.

or immigration policy meant those No one seemed to notice. And opened

:59:22.:59:26.

running the country did not care, because there was always an

:59:26.:59:28.

uncontrolled supplier of low skilled labour from abroad. Well, never

:59:28.:59:34.

again. We have capped benefits and our work programme is getting people

:59:34.:59:37.

into jobs. We have cut immigration by a third. What about the long-term

:59:37.:59:45.

unemployed? Let us pledge here that we will not abandon them, as

:59:45.:59:50.

previous governments did. Today, I can tell you about a new approach we

:59:50.:59:55.

are calling helped to work. The first time, all long-term unemployed

:59:55.:59:59.

people who are capable of work will be required to do something in

:59:59.:00:02.

return for their benefits and to help them find work. They will do

:00:02.:00:08.

useful work, putting something back into their community, making meals

:00:08.:00:12.

for the elderly, clearing up litter, working for a local charity. Others

:00:12.:00:13.

for the elderly, clearing up litter, will be made to attend a job centre

:00:13.:00:18.

every working day. For those with underlying problems like drug

:00:18.:00:22.

addiction and illiteracy, there will be an intensive regime of support.

:00:22.:00:24.

addiction and illiteracy, there will No one will be it gnawed or left

:00:24.:00:30.

without help. But no one will get something for nothing. Help to work,

:00:30.:00:37.

and return, work for the dole. A fair welfare system is fair to those

:00:37.:00:40.

who need it and fair to those who pay for it, too.

:00:40.:00:53.

? la economic plan, sound finance, backing aspiration, no one left

:00:53.:01:03.

behind, invested in the future -- our economic plan is. I am

:01:03.:01:11.

drivelling to China, and when you visit metropolises like there's it

:01:11.:01:14.

is hard not to be in awe of the scale of what is happening there,

:01:14.:01:21.

the ambition and the drive. -- I am travelling to China. Some people say

:01:21.:01:25.

that China is the sweatshop of the world and we should not compete, but

:01:25.:01:30.

China is also now a huge market for our exports and a home of

:01:30.:01:37.

innovation. This is a huge challenge for our country. If we get it right,

:01:37.:01:40.

it is the key to our future prosperity. This is what the debate

:01:40.:01:45.

about living standards is really all about. I don't want to see other

:01:45.:01:50.

nations pushing the frontiers of science and invention and commerce

:01:50.:01:51.

and explain to my children, that science and invention and commerce

:01:51.:01:55.

used to be our country. I don't want to look back and say that I was part

:01:55.:02:01.

of a generation that gave up and that we are poorer as a result. I

:02:01.:02:04.

of a generation that gave up and don't have to be. The other day I

:02:04.:02:07.

went to meet the people building a car that will travel at 1000 miles

:02:07.:02:13.

an hour and break the land speed record. It is not being built in

:02:13.:02:18.

Boston by some huge American defence company, it is not being built in

:02:19.:02:23.

Beijing by the Chinese government. It is called the Bloodhound, built

:02:23.:02:28.

in Bristol by British engineers, British apprentices and British

:02:28.:02:34.

companies. That is why I say we are in charge of our own destiny. In

:02:34.:02:42.

this great Railway Hall, can you imagine the Nation of Islam barred

:02:42.:02:44.

in being able imagine the Nation of Islam barred

:02:44.:05:17.

in being able We are at our best when we are optimists. We are at our

:05:17.:05:25.

best when we have faith that our country's better days lie not behind

:05:25.:05:28.

us, but ahead. We have fought hard battles these last three years, held

:05:28.:05:35.

our nerve when all around, people urged us to give in. And I want

:05:35.:05:39.

people to look back at these years and say yes, these were years of

:05:39.:05:45.

difficult cuts and sacrifice, but this was also the time when I bought

:05:45.:05:49.

my first home, set up my business, when our country invested in the

:05:49.:05:53.

things that matter for our future. These were the years when we laid

:05:53.:05:57.

the sound economic foundations on which better living standards are

:05:57.:06:01.

built, the sound foundations without which better living standards cannot

:06:01.:06:05.

be built. This is the time for a serious plan for a grown-up

:06:06.:06:10.

country. We are turning Britain around and we say to the people of

:06:10.:06:14.

this nation, we rescued the economy together, we will recover together,

:06:14.:06:19.

and together, we will share in the rewards, for the Sun has started to

:06:19.:06:22.

rise above the hill and the future looks brighter than it did just a

:06:22.:06:26.

few dark years ago. Thank you very much. STUDIO: George Osborne

:06:26.:06:44.

finishes his annual address to the Tory party faithful. He spoke for

:06:44.:06:46.

finishes his annual address to the just over 35 minutes is. He offered

:06:46.:06:51.

a serious plan for a grown-up country. He reminded not just the

:06:51.:06:57.

Labour Party, but the Liberal Democrats that the debt crisis was

:06:57.:07:03.

not over. He slipped in a little attack on Vince Cable, and I guess

:07:03.:07:07.

that is because Mr Cable attacked the Tories a couple of weeks ago.

:07:07.:07:17.

Interestingly, he promised that in the good years of a Conservative

:07:17.:07:20.

government they would run a surplus rather than a smaller deficit. We

:07:20.:07:23.

will look at how that might work. At rather than a smaller deficit. We

:07:23.:07:27.

the moment they predict deficits for as far as the eye will see, but he

:07:27.:07:33.

said they will build the roof when the sun shone. He said he would

:07:33.:07:40.

freeze Friel -- fuel duty for the rest of Parliament. I imagine that

:07:40.:07:47.

will be good for the heavy transport industry. He unveiled his plan for

:07:47.:07:51.

workfare for the long-term unemployed, which has already been

:07:51.:07:55.

heavily trailed. He did not use the phrase workfare, but behind closed

:07:55.:07:57.

heavily trailed. He did not use the doors or in the corridors of

:07:57.:08:02.

Manchester, that is what ministers are referring to it as. And he had a

:08:03.:08:07.

plug for High Speed 2. He gave no sign that, despite the lack of

:08:07.:08:12.

enthusiasm from Labour and a lot of resistance on his own side, he still

:08:12.:08:17.

called the high-speed train from London to Birmingham and then

:08:17.:08:21.

further north a great work of engineering. Interestingly, he

:08:21.:08:24.

didn't get a round of applause for that. Listening to that has been my

:08:24.:08:30.

guest, Norman Fowler. What did you that. Listening to that has been my

:08:31.:08:37.

make of it? The problem with all these speeches as they have been in

:08:37.:08:41.

the paper for at least 24 hours beforehand. In our day, we did not

:08:42.:08:48.

do it that way. So the response from the audience was that much greater.

:08:48.:08:54.

If, for example, the workfare proposals had come out of a clear

:08:54.:08:58.

blue sky, I think the audience would have been cheering. Why do they do

:08:58.:09:04.

that? Search me, is the answer. They so often get it wrong, the people

:09:04.:09:09.

who spin in advance. They get not particularly good headlines to begin

:09:09.:09:13.

with, then when the announcement comes it is yesterday's news. What

:09:13.:09:18.

do you make of the statement that he will run surpluses in the good

:09:18.:09:24.

years? I think it is sensible. I think it was a good speech. He has

:09:24.:09:28.

the great advantage of being a better speaker than most

:09:28.:09:34.

chancellors. He needs a new joke writer. It is difficult in those

:09:34.:09:39.

circumstances, in quite a serious speech about the economy, to bring

:09:39.:09:43.

out the great Morecambe and Weiss jokes. It is not that easy to do. I

:09:43.:09:50.

was not raising the bar anywhere near Morecambe and Wise, just to be

:09:50.:09:56.

better. He said we have to stick up the task, that must be the message.

:09:56.:10:00.

We are 15 months away from the election, how the party will be

:10:00.:10:05.

judged as how they are in 15 months time, have we made progress and

:10:05.:10:12.

would labour, frankly, ruin it? That will be the test. You think it was a

:10:12.:10:15.

great delivery? You seemed quite hesitant. FI was being

:10:15.:10:21.

supercritical, I would say he should have given more time at times, when

:10:21.:10:27.

he got to the punch line, he should have delayed it a little. -- if I

:10:27.:10:33.

was being supercritical. I think he is a fairly good speaker. The effect

:10:33.:10:40.

of what people were saying... The affection of people for him as a

:10:40.:10:48.

person has greatly increased. If David Cameron fell under a bus, you

:10:48.:10:51.

would actually see him now as a successor. Really? Yellow. I think

:10:51.:10:58.

so. I think he has become a much stronger and much easier to admire

:10:58.:11:02.

character than he ever was before. Well, listening to Mr Osborne in our

:11:02.:11:05.

Glasgow studio, is Labour's Treasury spokesperson, Cathy Jamieson.

:11:05.:11:15.

Welcome. I guess whoever wins the next election, Labour or the

:11:15.:11:18.

Conservatives or even a hung parliament, the long-term unemployed

:11:18.:11:25.

are in for it? They will have to get out and do something? I think the

:11:25.:11:29.

are in for it? They will have to get announcement today from George

:11:29.:11:33.

Osborne was far less vicious than what Labour has already said. George

:11:33.:11:36.

Osborne is talking about people having to turn up at the Jobcentres

:11:37.:11:42.

or being forced to go out and prepare meals for the elderly etc,

:11:42.:11:47.

we want to see people getting back into jobs. We have made it very

:11:47.:11:51.

clear that we would have a jobs guarantee, people would have to take

:11:51.:11:55.

jobs, if young people are out of work for a year or more, the

:11:55.:12:00.

long-term unemployed for two years, they would be minimum wage jobs but

:12:01.:12:04.

they would get help and support with the jobs search and some of the

:12:04.:12:09.

issues around literacy and so on. It is not that different, really? I

:12:09.:12:15.

think ours is far more ambitious than George Osborne has announced.

:12:15.:12:19.

It was quite astonishing to hear him talking about getting the economy

:12:19.:12:23.

back into surplus. In 2010 he promised he would have dealt with

:12:23.:12:25.

back into surplus. In 2010 he the deficit by 2015, he seems to be

:12:25.:12:30.

pushing that back into the next Parliament. I don't think his speech

:12:30.:12:34.

today offered any hope for hard working people across the UK. You

:12:34.:12:39.

are going to force the long-term unemployed to take a job, to provide

:12:39.:12:42.

the job, it will be guaranteed for them. This doll is born is going to

:12:42.:12:47.

force them to take a variety of things, but doing nothing is not an

:12:47.:12:53.

option -- Mr Osborne is going to force them. What sanctions would you

:12:53.:12:57.

have on the long-term unemployed if they refuse your force? The issue we

:12:57.:13:02.

have put forward is that it would be compulsory. These would be jobs that

:13:02.:13:08.

would be available for a period of six months, people would be obliged

:13:08.:13:13.

to take them. What is the sanction if they don't? Similar sanctions in

:13:13.:13:22.

terms of the benefits system. You would take away some of their

:13:22.:13:28.

welfare? The differences we are actually offering jobs and people

:13:28.:13:31.

are expected to take them because they would be proper jobs and

:13:31.:13:35.

supported. What we have heard from George Osborne today is not anywhere

:13:35.:13:39.

near as ambitious as what we have said we would do. What you both have

:13:39.:13:47.

in common, correct me if I am wrong, is that if the long-term unemployed

:13:47.:13:52.

don't do what you want, they will lose at least some of their welfare

:13:52.:13:58.

payments, correct? The majority of people who have been out of work for

:13:58.:14:02.

a lengthy period of time are desperate to get back into work. The

:14:02.:14:07.

answer is that yes, there would be sanctions.

:14:07.:14:13.

The sanctions would be withdrawal of welfare? Yes, but we would be

:14:13.:14:17.

offering real jobs for a proper welfare? Yes, but we would be

:14:17.:14:21.

wage, it is not just forcing people to do unpaid work for their

:14:21.:14:25.

benefits, it isn't highly different and we think it is reasonable to

:14:25.:14:30.

expect people to take that. -- it is highly different. I wanted to know

:14:31.:14:36.

what the sanctions would be. If Labour gets into power and growth

:14:36.:14:41.

returns to the economy and the economy is doing well, the way it

:14:41.:14:46.

was in the middle of the last decade, would a Labour government

:14:46.:14:53.

run surpluses? I think we would have to look at what is going to happen.

:14:53.:14:57.

We don't know what the state of the can you will be. If it is going

:14:57.:15:04.

well, would you run surpluses? In an ideal world, we want to see the

:15:04.:15:08.

economy returning to that position. But this appears to be unfunded

:15:08.:15:13.

promises. The announcement today on fuel duty fees, which seems to have

:15:13.:15:17.

been shoehorned in at the last minute because it does not appear to

:15:17.:15:21.

be funded, he can't see how he will pay for that and he will tell us

:15:21.:15:26.

that some point. That does not fit with a responsible approach to the

:15:26.:15:30.

economy. We are not making promises that we cannot guarantee we would

:15:30.:15:33.

deliver, but we want to see growth continue. Everybody wants to see

:15:33.:15:41.

that, but let me clarify. If the economy grows under labour for a

:15:41.:15:46.

large number of years, as it did after 1997, under a Labour

:15:46.:15:51.

government, would you run surpluses if growth continued? In an ideal

:15:51.:15:56.

world, we would want to do that. Let's see what the position is,

:15:56.:15:59.

world, we would want to do that. because we have no idea about the

:15:59.:16:02.

state of the economy. I am not because we have no idea about the

:16:02.:16:05.

asking you to run surpluses on year one, if you get four or five years,

:16:05.:16:12.

would you run a surplus rather than a deficit? We want to be sure that

:16:12.:16:15.

we can play some infrastructure. We did not hear much from George

:16:15.:16:22.

Osborne about getting the investment for the jobs. He tries to talk a

:16:22.:16:28.

good game, but today 's speech delivered far less than even I

:16:28.:16:34.

expected. And I am sure that your expectations were not high!

:16:34.:16:42.

Sorry, we have to move on. You know that we don't deal with history

:16:42.:16:47.

much. But the Labour Party conference last week might as well

:16:47.:16:51.

have been the War of the roses as far as we are concerned!

:16:51.:16:56.

Tories in Manchester yesterday held a tribute to former Prime Minister,

:16:56.:16:59.

Margaret Thatcher, who passed away. But can David Cameron match up to

:16:59.:17:06.

her? Adam has been finding out. You can't move for tributes to the Iron

:17:06.:17:10.

Lady, there is even a gift shop dedicated to her.

:17:10.:17:14.

But who will Conservative Party members vote as the better leader,

:17:14.:17:19.

Margaret Thatcher or David Cameron? What has she got? Guts and

:17:19.:17:28.

determination. Could David Cameron do anything to swing your vote? No.

:17:28.:17:36.

He messed it up on the gay vote for me. Will he have more of a legacy

:17:36.:17:49.

than the Iron Lady? Probably not. With the Tories ever see the like of

:17:49.:17:56.

her again? I hope so. Is there a potential Iron Lady in the Tory

:17:56.:18:01.

ranks at the moment? I don't think so. Cameron is much more democratic

:18:01.:18:08.

than Thatcher was. I would like to have two balls again, please. I

:18:08.:18:13.

can't say no to Mrs Thatcher, but I have to say yes to David Cameron.

:18:13.:18:17.

Most people my age don't know much about Thatcher. I am a fan. I have

:18:17.:18:22.

seen every thing she has done on TV. Every clip she has done, I have seen

:18:22.:18:30.

on YouTube. How do you think Mrs Thatcher would react if I thrust

:18:30.:18:35.

these balls in her face? She would say, you naughty boy! The hall was

:18:35.:18:44.

packed, there were people standing around the edges and there was an

:18:44.:18:47.

excitement about politics. Today, that has gone. What is Cameron's

:18:47.:18:58.

miners' strike? UKIP. In my opinion, someone has paid someone to put

:18:58.:19:03.

balls in the Cameron box. Quite soon, the Thatcher one will be

:19:03.:19:06.

overflowing. Then they will have to transfer some over to the Cameron

:19:06.:19:12.

box. I see a bit of Margaret Thatcher fashion tribute going on

:19:12.:19:17.

here. I looked like a granny, is that what you mean? No. Just one

:19:17.:19:25.

more. I have noticed that there is a lot of Maggie memorabilia at this

:19:25.:19:28.

conference. You were not taken by the Iron Lady ironing board cover?

:19:28.:19:34.

Hello! No. Who is a stronger leader, Thatcher or Cameron? Both. It is an

:19:34.:19:45.

Hello! No. Who is a stronger leader, either/or question, and as a

:19:45.:19:49.

history, lots of people like someone else. I will go for Margaret

:19:49.:19:54.

Thatcher, because she had balls. Who has got more balls, Thatcher or

:19:54.:20:01.

Cameron? If David Cameron was here voting, he would vote for the person

:20:01.:20:05.

I am going to vote for? Lady Thatcher, of course. Prime minister,

:20:05.:20:10.

who has got more balls, you or Mrs Thatcher? Now, the prime minister

:20:10.:20:15.

must have seen it as he swept through. The result of the mood box

:20:15.:20:20.

is that Margaret Thatcher is more popular than he is.

:20:20.:20:26.

We are now joined by the Conservative chairman, Grant

:20:26.:20:33.

Shapps, from Manchester. Mr Osborne says that in the good years, he is

:20:33.:20:38.

now going to run a surplus. But since you are projecting deficits as

:20:38.:20:43.

far as the eye can see, it will be a long while before you get near a

:20:43.:20:49.

surplus, isn't it? Well, it takes as long as it does determine the

:20:49.:20:52.

economy ran from what we now know was the deepest recession this

:20:52.:20:56.

country experiences the war. Twice as deep as that in America. That

:20:56.:21:03.

shows how bad it was under the previous government. We are making

:21:03.:21:05.

progress. We have cut a third off previous government. We are making

:21:05.:21:09.

the deficit. He made clear that we are going to finish the job and then

:21:09.:21:11.

make sure that when times are good, are going to finish the job and then

:21:11.:21:15.

we are running a surplus so that this country can afford it when

:21:15.:21:20.

there is another rainy day. So not before 2020? I don't know how long

:21:20.:21:25.

there is another rainy day. So not it will take mobot you have already

:21:25.:21:28.

seen the deficit reduced by a third. I hope we will have made more

:21:28.:21:29.

seen the deficit reduced by a third. progress by the time we get to the

:21:29.:21:35.

election in 2015. What was significant about today was that

:21:35.:21:37.

George Osborne said that never again, will we have the same mistake

:21:37.:21:42.

that Labour made of failing to fix the roof when the sun was shining.

:21:42.:21:46.

Can we get a few corrections to what has been said? The prime minister

:21:46.:21:53.

said yesterday on the BBC that 95% mortgages, which was what people

:21:53.:21:56.

would get and your Help to Buy scheme, he said they were

:21:56.:22:00.

commonplace. Can we get it on the record that that is not true? I can

:22:00.:22:06.

tell you that mortgages went up to not just 100% of the value of the

:22:06.:22:12.

property, but it went beyond. But they were not common. Actually, you

:22:12.:22:19.

could often get a mortgage for 90%, sometimes 95%. Those mortgage rates

:22:19.:22:25.

ran for decades without causing any difficulties. When it's beyond that

:22:25.:22:32.

to 100% of the property, and you could borrow money not just to buy

:22:32.:22:36.

your house but in addition, that was when it went wrong. We have

:22:36.:22:39.

prevented that from happening by giving the bank of England more

:22:39.:22:44.

power to stop it. The prime minister says people can't afford the

:22:44.:22:47.

deposit, so you are going to help them with that because they can't

:22:47.:22:53.

afford to service the mortgage. He is saying that they can afford to

:22:53.:22:58.

pay for the mortgage interest rate at a time when interest rates are at

:22:58.:23:02.

historic lows. They might not be able to continue to pay when

:23:02.:23:07.

interest rates rise, and they will be servicing 95 cent of the value of

:23:07.:23:16.

their home. At the moment, the market is oriented around 80 to 85%

:23:16.:23:23.

loan to value. But you will allow them to go up to 95%. But that means

:23:23.:23:29.

you need the most enormous deposit. It does not mean everyone will get

:23:29.:23:33.

95%. The government will back people who want to get on the housing

:23:34.:23:38.

ladder who are at the moment prevented because they don't have

:23:38.:23:40.

ladder who are at the moment upto £60,000 as a deposit. You and

:23:40.:23:47.

me, Andrew, and many watching this programme, we were able to get loan

:23:47.:23:53.

to values of 95%. That has not been available to this generation, which

:23:53.:23:58.

means that 35-year-olds, 37-year-olds are living at home with

:23:58.:24:01.

mum and dad. We think people in this generation should get the same

:24:01.:24:05.

opportunities as people in our generation. The only way you can

:24:05.:24:10.

stop house prices going up with this government subsidy is if you build a

:24:11.:24:16.

lot more, so why are housing starts under your coalition so poor? We

:24:16.:24:20.

have had some of the toughest times this country has ever known. As you

:24:20.:24:28.

know. Housing starts are now up. Not by much. In your first year, housing

:24:28.:24:35.

starts were 109,000. In your second year, they were 110,000. In your

:24:36.:24:44.

third year, they were 102,000. They are now running at a rate of

:24:44.:24:49.

110,000, the same as when you came in. There has been no improvement.

:24:49.:24:58.

But there will now be. When I was housing minister, there were lots of

:24:58.:25:01.

factors which dictated building homes. Planning permission is one.

:25:01.:25:07.

The second is the finance for people building the homes, and the third,

:25:07.:25:10.

which was not dealt with until this pop lit -- policy, is making sure

:25:10.:25:15.

people can get mortgages for those homes. The mortgage market was stuck

:25:15.:25:19.

at only giving mortgages at a loan to value of 80%, and people were

:25:20.:25:25.

having to get huge deposits together. That is why it was

:25:25.:25:28.

impossible to provide housing at the speed that we needed it. The

:25:28.:25:34.

pipeline suggests that there are now more starts that did not come

:25:34.:25:41.

through in the figures you mention. On UKIP, if a Conservative

:25:41.:25:45.

backbencher Eurosceptic decides to do a deal with UKIP at the next

:25:45.:25:51.

election so that UKIP doesn't run against them, as party chairman,

:25:51.:25:56.

what will you do? Our policy is of against them, as party chairman,

:25:56.:26:02.

course to have a referendum on a reformed Europe in the next

:26:02.:26:07.

Parliament by 2017. So all of our candidates will stand on the basis

:26:07.:26:10.

that the Conservatives will give you a referendum. Secondly, we will run

:26:10.:26:17.

candidates in all 650 constituencies, as we always do.

:26:17.:26:20.

Thirdly, they will only ever be on the ballot paper as Conservative

:26:20.:26:28.

candidates. What other parties do is their business. But if a sitting

:26:28.:26:36.

Tory MP or an aspiring Tory MP does a deal to be a joint candidate with

:26:36.:26:42.

UKIP, you will take them off the Tory approved list? Every person who

:26:42.:26:52.

stands for this election in this country for a party has to be signed

:26:52.:26:57.

off by that party to legally be the candidate. There will only be people

:26:57.:27:02.

on the ballot paper described as Conservative candidates. But you

:27:02.:27:05.

will disown any of your candidates who try to run with UKIP? Or I am

:27:05.:27:11.

saying is that whether other parties stand is their business. We will

:27:11.:27:17.

only run Conservative candidates. But if your MP is run as joint

:27:17.:27:22.

candidates with UKIP, what will you do? How can they be joint if it just

:27:22.:27:27.

says Conservative on the ballot paper? Whether other parties stand

:27:27.:27:31.

is their business. They can only stand as Conservatives, signed off

:27:31.:27:37.

by Conservatives. If Peter Bone does a deal with UKIP and runs as a joint

:27:37.:27:41.

candidates, will he still be the Tory candidate? I don't understand

:27:41.:27:46.

what you mean by joint candidate. You can only be the Conservative

:27:46.:27:50.

candidate. Whether UKIP stand or not is their business. If people want to

:27:50.:27:58.

have a referendum over Europe, I can't see any point in UKIP

:27:58.:28:02.

standing. We are the people who will offer the referendum and David

:28:02.:28:06.

Hamman is the only prime minister who will deliver on that. -- David

:28:06.:28:15.

Cameron. Who is the Tory minister who lost all this weight at the

:28:15.:28:18.

Cameron. Who is the Tory minister Austrian fat farm? Is that must be

:28:18.:28:22.

Eric Pickles. No, it was Michael Gove. Maybe Mr pickles should have

:28:22.:28:28.

been there, but Michael Gove lost two stone. That is it for today.

:28:28.:28:33.

Thanks to all my guests. The one O'Clock News is starting on BBC

:28:33.:28:38.

One. I will be here at noon tomorrow, our usual time, with more

:28:38.:28:43.

from the Conservative conference from Manchester. James Landale will

:28:43.:28:47.

be on BBC Two tonight with today at conference after Newsnight. Hope you

:28:47.:28:54.

can join him and me tomorrow. Till then, bye-bye. Thanks for watching.

:28:54.:29:00.

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