18/10/2013 Daily Politics


18/10/2013

Andrew Neil with the latest political stories, including a look at immigration and opposition to army cuts.


Similar Content

Browse content similar to 18/10/2013. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!

Transcript


LineFromTo

Afternoon, folks. Welcome to the Daily Politics. Energy price hikes

:00:41.:00:46.

unleash a torrent of abuse on Twitter. But which political party

:00:47.:00:50.

is best taking advantage of the public's anger? Sometimes they are

:00:51.:00:55.

encouraging more of them to come here. Sometimes they are telling

:00:56.:00:59.

them to go home. What do politicians really want to do about

:01:00.:01:03.

immigration? Are you sitting comfortably? Plenty of MPs were at

:01:04.:01:06.

Prime Minister's Questions. But was it right that one pregnant minister

:01:07.:01:12.

was left standing? I think he is one of the few people old enough to be

:01:13.:01:16.

Prime Minister who can still talk to youth. Talk to you? Lavish praise

:01:17.:01:24.

from the Queen of romance for the last truly a wrist acrostic Prime

:01:25.:01:28.

Minister. We mark 50 years since Alec Douglas-Home emerged that I

:01:29.:01:36.

minister. -- as Prime Minister. All of that is coming up in the next

:01:37.:01:40.

hour. Public service broadcasting at its finest. Who better to engage the

:01:41.:01:44.

youthful viewers of this programme than Iain Martin of the Sunday

:01:45.:01:48.

Telegraph and Elizabeth Rigby of The Financial Times? They are with us

:01:49.:01:53.

for the duration. Welcome. Let's start with British Gas, everybody

:01:54.:01:57.

else is this week. The company PR team will be hoping for a quieter

:01:58.:02:00.

day after dealing with the fallout from yesterday's announcement of a

:02:01.:02:05.

10% increase in energy bills. Some bright spark at British Gas, SPARC,

:02:06.:02:09.

British Gas, get it? They thought it would be a good idea for the

:02:10.:02:15.

customer services director to take to Twitter to answer any concerns

:02:16.:02:20.

that customers might have. What could possibly go wrong? It is not

:02:21.:02:24.

like it is a disaster waiting to happen. Alan Gibbs took to Twitter

:02:25.:02:27.

to ask: Labour's press team are keen not to

:02:28.:03:02.

miss an opportunity on this team. What is also interesting, this is an

:03:03.:03:18.

issue that Labour, the price freezes, whatever the economic of

:03:19.:03:22.

it, it is clearly popular and they are way ahead on it. But all of the

:03:23.:03:26.

other polls do not show it is translating into a Labour lead over

:03:27.:03:31.

the Conservatives, in the general voting intention? No, the Tories

:03:32.:03:35.

would say the reason it does not translate is because, actually,

:03:36.:03:41.

voters are not silly and they realise this probably is an

:03:42.:03:46.

unworkable policy. You cannot just tell companies to freeze prices and

:03:47.:03:50.

think that there will not be a fallout in terms of maybe not

:03:51.:03:53.

investing in energy more, putting bills before the price freeze comes

:03:54.:04:01.

in. So, it is a kind of short-term political gamble, if you like. It is

:04:02.:04:09.

not yet playing into the polls. That said, clearly, the Tories are very

:04:10.:04:14.

worried about that. They are worried about it. At some stage, the

:04:15.:04:17.

coalition will need to come up with a more adequate response, because

:04:18.:04:20.

when you ask them now, Labour is going to freeze my bill, what are

:04:21.:04:24.

you going to do, you basically get a load of waffle. In narrow political

:04:25.:04:32.

terms, this has been very good for Ed Miliband. A month ago he was

:04:33.:04:36.

going into the conference season in some difficulty, the energy freeze,

:04:37.:04:40.

unworkable as it is as a policy, there are many questions marks about

:04:41.:04:47.

it, it has got him back in the game. The entire argument is phoney,

:04:48.:04:50.

really, from all three of the parties. In that globalisation was

:04:51.:04:57.

always going to push up demand and prices for gas and electricity.

:04:58.:05:03.

Laying green costs on top of that, and then they want to blame each

:05:04.:05:06.

other, they want to try to compete and persuade the public that energy

:05:07.:05:11.

prices... And they have postponed investment, successive governments.

:05:12.:05:15.

I'm not blaming one party or another. It is a slightly phoney

:05:16.:05:21.

argument, I think. When you look at the energy record of the last Labour

:05:22.:05:26.

government and this government, nobody comes out very well from it.

:05:27.:05:32.

But they cover that by turning the energy bosses into the new bankers?

:05:33.:05:38.

Absolutely. I think this is going to be the interesting story going

:05:39.:05:42.

forwards. Just as we have seen bankers levies, are we going to get

:05:43.:05:45.

into a situation where the energy bosses become demonised and the

:05:46.:05:52.

government talk about putting levies on energy companies? The problem the

:05:53.:05:55.

government have is that actually they need to have about ?110 billion

:05:56.:06:00.

investment into new power plants over the next generation to keep the

:06:01.:06:05.

lights on in the UK and to make us less dependent on international

:06:06.:06:10.

gas, to make us more energy-efficient and energy secure.

:06:11.:06:17.

So, they do not want to slam the energy companies too hard. Because

:06:18.:06:22.

that is where the energy is about to come from? But nothing they do at

:06:23.:06:31.

the moment makes a blind bit of difference. This deal they have done

:06:32.:06:36.

with the Chinese and the French, the Chinese are just ponying up some

:06:37.:06:42.

money. The French are involved in building plants in Finland and

:06:43.:06:45.

France, eight years late and twice over budget. Nothing that was

:06:46.:06:51.

decided in China will produce a single light bulb of electricity

:06:52.:06:55.

until 2030. You are absolutely right. Yet again, the argument is

:06:56.:06:59.

being conducted on a phoney basis. Also, the Tories have been rumbled,

:07:00.:07:03.

in that for the last few months they have been trying to run this line

:07:04.:07:07.

that they are going to be tough on green taxes. Actually, when you look

:07:08.:07:10.

into the detail, there is very little scope for movement. Well, the

:07:11.:07:17.

Lib Dems won't let them? Precisely. The Tories are trying to give the

:07:18.:07:22.

impression they are tough on green taxes, which they implemented. They

:07:23.:07:29.

voted for Ed Miliband's climate change policies? The irony of the

:07:30.:07:34.

new nuclear power station that is finally going to be built between

:07:35.:07:38.

the French EDF and the Chinese investor, the price that the

:07:39.:07:42.

government are guaranteeing on the energy coming out of that is twice

:07:43.:07:46.

the amount of current wholesale energy prices. It will be between

:07:47.:07:54.

?90 and ?93. They are locking consumers into paying for that.

:07:55.:07:58.

Whatever happens. They could be guaranteeing, we don't know the

:07:59.:08:01.

details, it is coming out on Monday, but that could be a three decade

:08:02.:08:05.

deal. That is really going to whack up prices. There could be a

:08:06.:08:11.

documentary in this. Thank you. It is time for the daily quiz. Which of

:08:12.:08:17.

these photographs is really of the Communities Secretary Eric Pickles?

:08:18.:08:21.

Pickles on the beach? Pickles giving a speech? Pickles going to a

:08:22.:08:25.

nursery? Pickles in the jungle? At the end of the show, they will

:08:26.:08:35.

give us the correct answer. You will, won't you? Iain will. 40,000

:08:36.:08:43.

texts, tweets and e-mails have been sent to immigrants that the

:08:44.:08:46.

government believes have overstayed their welcome in Britain, asking

:08:47.:08:50.

them to leave. It turns out, what a surprise, some of them went to the

:08:51.:08:53.

wrong people. And, of course, we don't know how many of the intended

:08:54.:08:57.

recipients were persuaded to return home. Politicians want to look tough

:08:58.:09:02.

on immigration, an issue behind only the economy in terms of importance

:09:03.:09:05.

to the public. But what do politicians really want to do about

:09:06.:09:10.

it? Sometimes, politicians want people

:09:11.:09:18.

to come. London was founded by pushy Italian immigrants called the

:09:19.:09:22.

Romans. Where would we be without them? Sometimes they want them to

:09:23.:09:25.

go. Sometimes they tell them to their face exactly what they think.

:09:26.:09:29.

I'm afraid he has no right to be in the United Kingdom and he should

:09:30.:09:32.

leave. But what do politicians really want to do about immigration?

:09:33.:09:36.

You could be forgiven for being a bit baffled about what governments

:09:37.:09:41.

of all types really think about what people... People that want to come

:09:42.:09:46.

and live in Britain. Why the mixed messages? Essentially, it is very

:09:47.:09:52.

difficult to be clear about immigration because, with the

:09:53.:09:55.

public, you are looking to talk to their concerns about immigration.

:09:56.:09:57.

With business, it is much more about the economic benefits. The messaging

:09:58.:10:04.

is very difficult. Given that businesses do not vote, politicians

:10:05.:10:08.

can be very keen to be on the right side of public opinion, or at least

:10:09.:10:11.

what they think is public opinion. I think on immigration, there is a

:10:12.:10:20.

sense that politicians, wrongly, think that the public are against

:10:21.:10:25.

immigration. That they have views that may be the views in some of the

:10:26.:10:29.

red tops, but are not actually shared by the public. There is a

:10:30.:10:32.

view amongst the public that politicians do not want to discuss

:10:33.:10:34.

the issue. Take those two things together, and you get a pretty

:10:35.:10:41.

difficult relationship. And yet, according to pollsters, voters are

:10:42.:10:47.

actually quite savvy about the kind of immigration politicians like and

:10:48.:10:50.

the kind that gives them a headache. They do differentiate between

:10:51.:10:54.

different kinds of migration. The high salaried, global, footloose

:10:55.:10:57.

business leaders are welcomed and people do see immigration as part of

:10:58.:11:01.

the progression of the economy, innovation. But, at the same time,

:11:02.:11:07.

economic migrants are seen to be really problematic. Do politicians

:11:08.:11:13.

have a bit more freedom to be frank about immigration than they think?

:11:14.:11:19.

In the run-up to the election, Chris Grayling, we had a fabulous public

:11:20.:11:25.

meeting. You know, we all said our bit. I think the public was

:11:26.:11:34.

impressed that there was a large degree of consensus amongst

:11:35.:11:37.

politicians about this issue and how to tackle it, including the problems

:11:38.:11:42.

that are caused in some communities who are disproportionately affected.

:11:43.:11:47.

So, maybe that public can handle the truth about immigration? The

:11:48.:11:50.

question is whether the politicians can handle telling it.

:11:51.:11:58.

We are joined by Atul Hatwal from pressure group Migration Matters and

:11:59.:12:02.

Conservative MP Mark Reckless. Who do you want to come here and who do

:12:03.:12:06.

you not want to come here? Well, I want to cut immigration, from the

:12:07.:12:10.

two wooden 50,000 a year to less than 100,000. We are more than

:12:11.:12:13.

halfway towards that goal. That is why constituents want to see it and

:12:14.:12:19.

I want to get the numbers down. Some benefit from immigration, they might

:12:20.:12:22.

get cheaper plumbers or cleaners. But most of my constituents are

:12:23.:12:27.

competing with this immigrant labour and they wanted reduced. You want to

:12:28.:12:31.

get the numbers down, even if there was a queue of people wanting to

:12:32.:12:36.

come to this country that were well-educated educated, wealthy,

:12:37.:12:39.

clearly going to be net contributors to the country, even if that was

:12:40.:12:43.

true, and I am not saying it is, but if it was you would still want the

:12:44.:12:47.

numbers to fall? There are schemes to allow people, and there are often

:12:48.:12:50.

quite small numbers in that category, to come. I welcome that.

:12:51.:12:54.

If you are a company and you want to bring somebody from overseas for

:12:55.:12:58.

your company here, you are allowed to do that pretty flexibly as long

:12:59.:13:01.

as they earn at least ?40,000 per year. I think that is flexible and a

:13:02.:13:09.

good imitation brought in. There is a loophole, where you are allowed to

:13:10.:13:12.

come in, largely with Indian IT companies, as long as you are here

:13:13.:13:17.

for less than six months. There is a succession of these people. They

:13:18.:13:19.

compete with domestic IT companies, who cannot compete with those labour

:13:20.:13:24.

rates, given their skills, they undercut them and there is downwards

:13:25.:13:29.

pressure on many IT people in my constituency who would like those

:13:30.:13:34.

jobs. It's making life tougher, it is cutting the wages of those of us

:13:35.:13:37.

that are already here. What would you say to that? We are getting

:13:38.:13:42.

muddled between cause and effect. I speak to employers every week. They

:13:43.:13:45.

are very clear, there would rather employ British citizens, who wore

:13:46.:13:48.

that are brought up here, because it is easier in terms of bureaucracy.

:13:49.:13:52.

What they say is that we have a really big skills problem in this

:13:53.:13:56.

country. Just last week, the OECD had England 24th out of 25 on the

:13:57.:14:03.

table. The choice is not between a British work and an immigrant, it is

:14:04.:14:07.

between delivering business or not. To bolster our recovery and move

:14:08.:14:12.

forwards, we need the employment. What would you say to that? Again,

:14:13.:14:18.

take an example, look at the horticulture industry. We have been

:14:19.:14:21.

bringing people from Romania and Bulgaria who are unfortunately able

:14:22.:14:25.

to come entirely legally from January. I think the government has

:14:26.:14:31.

made the right decision, rather than looking to the Ukraine and bringing

:14:32.:14:34.

in more people, to end that seasonal scheme and say to the farmers

:14:35.:14:38.

involved that they have to pay people more domestically to persuade

:14:39.:14:42.

people to do that work. Yes, the price of strawberries may be higher.

:14:43.:14:45.

But it means that people, domestically, get the chance of

:14:46.:14:50.

deployment. People have not done this domestic for generations. This

:14:51.:14:54.

is not a new thing. We always had migrant for seasonal farm work. If

:14:55.:14:58.

people are paid enough or doing something, you tend to find that

:14:59.:15:03.

people come forward. A Conservative Government wants to mandate the

:15:04.:15:07.

level of wages paid? They want to stop immigrant labour undercutting

:15:08.:15:10.

the domestic market. But they won't come for less than the minimum wage,

:15:11.:15:16.

that is illegal. But that law is not always enforced as much as we like.

:15:17.:15:20.

How many businesses has the government prosecuted for not paying

:15:21.:15:24.

the minimum wage? Only a small number, I'm afraid. I'm worried

:15:25.:15:27.

about the exemptions, people coming from EU countries, working for a

:15:28.:15:31.

period and it is not clear they are receiving that. That is not fair to

:15:32.:15:34.

my constituents. We should concentrate on skills and upping the

:15:35.:15:37.

domestic labour force to make sure there is a fair chance to get those

:15:38.:15:41.

jobs. There was a feeling under the last Labour Government, it might

:15:42.:15:45.

have been right or wrong, but it was widespread, that immigration was out

:15:46.:15:48.

of control. That numbers had become too big. It was impossible to absorb

:15:49.:15:53.

and there was a huge illegal side as well. On top of the genuine asylum

:15:54.:15:59.

seekers, on which we have a moral obligation to take, a lot of people

:16:00.:16:02.

were calling themselves asylum seekers and they were not. It was

:16:03.:16:05.

inevitable there would be a backlash? There is an issue about

:16:06.:16:12.

the pace and management of change, which is different to the issue of

:16:13.:16:17.

principle about immigration or not. The distribution of migrants in

:16:18.:16:20.

small communities, the pressure on local public services, that is a

:16:21.:16:25.

real is you. I think when it comes to illegal migration, more could be

:16:26.:16:31.

done earlier, and I think one of the things that is broadly welcomed and

:16:32.:16:34.

that the public welcome, actually, is to tackle illegal immigration

:16:35.:16:38.

helps detoxify the debate around legal migration. But it is important

:16:39.:16:43.

to say that, of the illegal migrants came Labour's term, from the access

:16:44.:16:49.

and countries, they have contributed more in taxes than they have used in

:16:50.:16:52.

public services, they have helped us drive forward growth, and our debt

:16:53.:16:57.

today would be worse if they had not come. Is that true? I do not really

:16:58.:17:01.

think it is, to the extent that people are coming in who are young

:17:02.:17:06.

and who did not initially have that age limit. There may be more

:17:07.:17:09.

pressures on schools from that group of people. As immigrants age, the

:17:10.:17:14.

costs will get greater, but they have felt down wages in my

:17:15.:17:18.

constituency, where otherwise there would be an opportunity to take

:17:19.:17:23.

those jobs. For someone with an economic background, that sounds

:17:24.:17:26.

logical - if you increase supply, the price will fall. The problem is

:17:27.:17:31.

when you look for the hard economic analysis of this, to get the

:17:32.:17:34.

evidence, it is quite hard to find the evidence that it is actually

:17:35.:17:40.

happened. Do you have studies that can show this? I cannot find them. I

:17:41.:17:46.

think since 2005, it is clear that we have seen a greater divergences

:17:47.:17:49.

in incomes. At the lower end, the less skilled end, the end that is

:17:50.:17:54.

competing with the people who came in under Labour, that is where wages

:17:55.:17:58.

have been held down, and immigration is certainly a factor in that, and

:17:59.:18:01.

my constituents would like to see less immigration and less pressure

:18:02.:18:05.

on public services, but also they have the opportunity to get jobs.

:18:06.:18:11.

But here is the rub. There are over 1 million people excluded from this

:18:12.:18:16.

country, but they are in this country, and they are what some

:18:17.:18:20.

people refer to as an underclass. They lack the skills and education

:18:21.:18:26.

to participate, and employers and government have found it easier to

:18:27.:18:30.

bring in young, motivated, educated people from abroad to take up the

:18:31.:18:34.

jobs, rather than do all the heavy lifting required to get these people

:18:35.:18:40.

out of an underclass situation into the labour force, productive members

:18:41.:18:44.

of the community. Maybe what the position be on migrating that 1

:18:45.:18:47.

million people to where they should be. Bare not mutually exclusive. In

:18:48.:18:58.

the short to medium term, we need to keep businesses operating, so people

:18:59.:19:04.

are needed. Is that the case when we have 2.5 million unemployed? That

:19:05.:19:08.

does not preclude action on skills. Employers say to me that when they

:19:09.:19:14.

advertise, big, small, medium, they go to colleges and schools, but when

:19:15.:19:18.

they need a lot of labour, it is difficult to get them in, and what

:19:19.:19:24.

action needs to be taken, that is... That is because it is easier to go

:19:25.:19:29.

to the Walsall labour market, people who are well educated, ready to come

:19:30.:19:33.

here, will quickly learn English, than to go into the worst part of

:19:34.:19:37.

our cities and rescue these people and give them the training and

:19:38.:19:41.

education necessary. That is much tougher, that is why you have even

:19:42.:19:45.

had one supermarket in Liverpool, surrounded by unemployment, going to

:19:46.:19:50.

Warsaw to get people, rather than trying to upgrade the people that

:19:51.:19:53.

live within a mile of the store. I think the flurry over summer with

:19:54.:20:00.

Next was quite instructive, because those companies are working with

:20:01.:20:05.

local schools and colleges, and they are trying to fill the jobs that we,

:20:06.:20:09.

but if the choice is between delivering the business or not, they

:20:10.:20:13.

have got to get people who are going to work. That does not preclude

:20:14.:20:16.

government taking much stronger action and making a public policy

:20:17.:20:20.

choice that more must be spent, more focus and priority given to

:20:21.:20:24.

training. Let me bring in our journalists. I would say that there

:20:25.:20:29.

is a sort of falls to bait on this, because actually, you know, the EEC

:20:30.:20:33.

put out figures this week saying that in terms of benefits and

:20:34.:20:38.

unemployment benefits, actually, migrants from the EU, it was less

:20:39.:20:45.

than 3%, it was 38,000, less than 38,000. I think what has happened in

:20:46.:20:49.

the public space is that we are having this debate that demonises

:20:50.:20:55.

migrants, instead of having a debate about what the benefits and cons,

:20:56.:20:58.

and I think we need to strip away the politics of it, and actually

:20:59.:21:02.

talk about the economics of it, because you know, you are talking

:21:03.:21:07.

about this idea that you stop migration and stop seasonal labour,

:21:08.:21:10.

but then if everyone puts up the price of carrots, strawberries,

:21:11.:21:14.

potatoes, then you are going to have a government in a cost of living

:21:15.:21:20.

crisis, pushing consumers Bill bills when they go to the supermarket. My

:21:21.:21:26.

constituents want to see immigration reduced, and if that means you pay a

:21:27.:21:29.

few more pence for your strawberries, my constituents get a

:21:30.:21:34.

better chance to access jobs, I think that is positive. It is not

:21:35.:21:39.

the unemployment benefit, it is often in work benefits, and as far

:21:40.:21:44.

as people from Romania or Bulgaria are concerned, we give generous in

:21:45.:21:47.

work benefits to families with children, and tens of thousands of

:21:48.:21:51.

people are sending back their child benefit to children resident in

:21:52.:21:56.

Poland. I want to put a stop to that. It is very difficult for the

:21:57.:22:00.

parties to deal with this subject, because there is a strand of opinion

:22:01.:22:02.

which believes that the matter what the mainstream parties say, they

:22:03.:22:06.

believe they have been lied to over the last 20 or 30 years about

:22:07.:22:09.

immigration. It is difficult for the mainstream parties to reach those

:22:10.:22:17.

people. UKIP are reaching them. I will be fascinated to see which of

:22:18.:22:19.

the mainstream parties is first to reach out to immigrants. I mean, we

:22:20.:22:21.

are talking about future immigration here, but we have gone through an

:22:22.:22:25.

enormous process of demographic and social change, and senior

:22:26.:22:30.

politicians in either of the main parties, how much time they spend

:22:31.:22:34.

studying who immigrants are, who have been here, staying here, making

:22:35.:22:40.

a contribution, what do they want, what other instincts? A large number

:22:41.:22:43.

of them might actually have Conservative instincts, they are

:22:44.:22:48.

people who work out. We need to move on. Very briefly, are you confident

:22:49.:22:53.

you will hit this target of getting that immigration under 100000 by

:22:54.:22:57.

2015? We are on track, it is difficult... I am worried about

:22:58.:23:03.

Bulgaria and Romania, I went out there, I think we want to discourage

:23:04.:23:08.

it as much as we can. By telling them how horrible it is here. We

:23:09.:23:13.

just have to hit that target, we said we would could immigration to

:23:14.:23:16.

tens of thousands to restore trust in politics, and we need to do

:23:17.:23:22.

everything we can to hit that. Now, the Government's controversial

:23:23.:23:27.

plans to replace 20,000 regular soldiers with 30,000 reservists has

:23:28.:23:30.

suffered a setback in the Commons. MPs voted in favour of a backbench

:23:31.:23:34.

motion urging ministers to delay the army shake-up until it has been

:23:35.:23:36.

shown that the plan is financially viable. A leaked MOD report has said

:23:37.:23:44.

that the army faces increased risk to its structure and operational

:23:45.:23:47.

capability and is recruiting just have the number of reservists it

:23:48.:23:50.

needs. This is a flavour of the debate.

:23:51.:23:57.

We have great difficulty, those of us that served and have seen our

:23:58.:24:04.

comrades in action, we have great difficulty in accepting change. I

:24:05.:24:09.

don't like it. I will fight tooth and nail to keep the Royal Regiment

:24:10.:24:12.

of Fusiliers and the other battalions. But sometimes we are

:24:13.:24:16.

going to have to accept that we can't. That is why people like me,

:24:17.:24:23.

and other honourable members, honourable and gallant members on

:24:24.:24:28.

all sides of the house, are fighting so hard for their local battalions

:24:29.:24:35.

and regiments. I actually think that the whole plan about the Army

:24:36.:24:39.

Reserve is a good plan. I know a great many serving reservists in my

:24:40.:24:43.

constituency who are both excited and infused about their role in a

:24:44.:24:50.

fully manned, 30,000 strong force which will ensure that they and

:24:51.:24:53.

other people in the future can really make their contribution to

:24:54.:24:59.

the British Army. The 2nd Battalion and the 1st Battalion, Royal

:25:00.:25:01.

Regiment of Fusiliers are very close to my heart, my dad having been a

:25:02.:25:06.

member of the Royal Northumberland Fusiliers during and before the

:25:07.:25:09.

Second World War. And I am just wondering what the ministry and what

:25:10.:25:13.

the ministers want out of our defence forces, because one of the

:25:14.:25:19.

battalions to be axed, the 2nd Battalion, Royal Regiment of

:25:20.:25:22.

Fusiliers, are known as daring in all, and wherever the Fusiliers have

:25:23.:25:26.

deployed, they have proved capable of meeting the challenge with

:25:27.:25:30.

courage, determination and the will to win. That is on the army website.

:25:31.:25:36.

It is true, there have been some issues in the process. It is too

:25:37.:25:40.

bureaucratic, as some of my honourable friend have pointed out.

:25:41.:25:43.

However, we are working with our recruiting partner and senior army

:25:44.:25:47.

leadership to actively address these issues, and I believe we can work

:25:48.:25:51.

through them, simplify the system and meet the objective. One is not

:25:52.:25:57.

saying, scrap the reservists plans. In many respects, one wants them to

:25:58.:26:02.

work. What one is saying is that there comes a point in any project

:26:03.:26:06.

where, if you have to keep throwing extra cost into a plan, because it

:26:07.:26:10.

is failing, because recruitment targets cannot be met, because costs

:26:11.:26:14.

are rising, because TA numbers are at a low ebb and there is

:26:15.:26:18.

disorganisation, when you throw more and more money into such a project,

:26:19.:26:22.

there comes a point when you have got to say, is this project is

:26:23.:26:26.

creating false economies? And therefore costing the taxpayer dear?

:26:27.:26:30.

Well, one asked the Ministry of Defence for an interview but one was

:26:31.:26:38.

told no-one was available! We can talk to Bob Stewart, a former army

:26:39.:26:44.

colonel, commander of the UN forces in Bosnia, he has changed his tie

:26:45.:26:47.

since yesterday, you have got more than one! For a surprise, the plan

:26:48.:26:55.

to hire a lot more surprises is not -- more reservists is not working.

:26:56.:26:59.

They are getting less than half the reservists they thought. We were

:27:00.:27:04.

guaranteed, Andrew, in 2011 by the then Defence Secretary in the House

:27:05.:27:08.

of Commons that regular battalions, regular units would not go until the

:27:09.:27:13.

viability and the cost effectiveness of the reserve plan was shown to be

:27:14.:27:18.

working. Neither of those things seem to be on target at the moment.

:27:19.:27:24.

But in the public domain, there is endless talk about military cuts,

:27:25.:27:28.

cuts to the army, the army being cut to its lowest numbers since the

:27:29.:27:33.

volume, sending out an image that this is a declining part of our

:27:34.:27:36.

society, so why would you be surprised that people do not want to

:27:37.:27:39.

join what is seen to be in decline to me I am not surprised, I am not

:27:40.:27:45.

surprised at all. I did not mean you personally, I meant the government.

:27:46.:27:49.

Well, the government may be a little surprised. We are going to get rid

:27:50.:27:55.

of four infantry battalions by the end of 2015. On the wildest, most

:27:56.:28:01.

generous estimate, these 30,000 reservists will not be available

:28:02.:28:07.

until 2018. That is a three-year gap, and all were asking us to say,

:28:08.:28:11.

look, the problem is this, we will keep these battalions until the plan

:28:12.:28:15.

proves to be worthwhile and cost-effective, and cost-effective

:28:16.:28:18.

as well, because it will work if you just keep checking money at it. If

:28:19.:28:22.

you keep throwing money at it, it will eventually work, but what about

:28:23.:28:25.

the cost effectiveness of its? Why do we have these people when it is

:28:26.:28:29.

cheaper to have regulars? But this is a government which is going to

:28:30.:28:32.

reside over a ten-year gap in the navy having no aircraft carriers,

:28:33.:28:36.

and it will have one with no planes. Why would you expect the army to

:28:37.:28:43.

have a gap between losing its regiments and getting the reservists

:28:44.:28:46.

in? This is par for the course, this is how defence policy is run these

:28:47.:28:51.

days. I am not quite as cynical as you, I think we will have aeroplanes

:28:52.:28:54.

on those aircraft carriers, they are working on it now. I agree, we will

:28:55.:29:00.

have a problem paying for them. We will have a problem manning it, we

:29:01.:29:04.

will have a problem, but we need those aircraft carriers. But we also

:29:05.:29:07.

need our infantry battalions to stay at least until the viability of the

:29:08.:29:11.

reserve plan is proven. What would you like the government to do? Stop

:29:12.:29:16.

those four battalions being scrapped by the end of next year, the cars

:29:17.:29:21.

that is one way of doing it. Just put them on hold, we are not saying

:29:22.:29:24.

it will not work, maybe it will, I hope it does in a way, but I do not

:29:25.:29:28.

want to see regular troops go, leaving us with a big capability gap

:29:29.:29:34.

between 2015 and 2018, when we have got enough problems in defence. We

:29:35.:29:38.

have not even got maritime air cover out to the area we are meant to

:29:39.:29:42.

cover in the North Atlantic, which is 1400 nautical miles. We can go

:29:43.:29:47.

out to 240 miles, we have to ask the French, the Portuguese and Spanish

:29:48.:29:50.

for aircraft. We scrapped the nimrods. I understand the logic for

:29:51.:29:55.

that, there is a big problem in defence, and on the other hand you

:29:56.:29:58.

would ask me, I will not put words in your mouth, which Buddhist killer

:29:59.:30:02.

hospitals would you like to start building? Which schools would you

:30:03.:30:07.

stop? It is an opportunity cost, but I am saying that it is not that

:30:08.:30:10.

much, too expensive to keep these battalions on until the plan is

:30:11.:30:14.

proven, which we were promised in the House of Commons by the then

:30:15.:30:21.

Defence Secretary, Liam Fox. If they hadn't spent ?4 million on nimrods

:30:22.:30:29.

that went straight to the knackers yards, they wouldn't have that

:30:30.:30:34.

problem. I agree. My brother is on my back practically every week about

:30:35.:30:39.

this fact. Accountant Hammond, also the Secretary of State for defence,

:30:40.:30:44.

is he listening to you? Of course. I am not trying to criticise Philip

:30:45.:30:48.

Hammond. He's not doing what you want him to do. I'm criticising the

:30:49.:30:55.

policy. He's got a problem. He inherited that plan. I don't agree

:30:56.:30:58.

with elements of it, but I understand the logic of why it has

:30:59.:31:02.

to happen. I would like us to buy something to replace the maritime

:31:03.:31:05.

patrol aircraft. I would actually like some more guarantees that we

:31:06.:31:09.

are going to be able to man and fly things off the aircraft carriers.

:31:10.:31:18.

Iain? I think he would be unwise to be blase about it. He's been blase

:31:19.:31:26.

since 2010 about scaling back Britain's defence capability. I

:31:27.:31:29.

think there is a large number of Tories that are very resentful about

:31:30.:31:32.

this and deeply worried. Actually, if you look at the numbers, take a

:31:33.:31:41.

huge group of Tory rebels to vote with Labour, if this would in some

:31:42.:31:45.

way, at some point in the next few months, be brought to the house then

:31:46.:31:49.

I think David Cameron, who has a history of miscalculating and not

:31:50.:31:55.

spotting potential rebellions, I think it is potentially significant.

:31:56.:31:58.

I agree with that. But I think part of the problem with this programme

:31:59.:32:01.

has been trying to get business to release people. You say this

:32:02.:32:07.

programme, you don't mean the Daily Politics? You mean the programme to

:32:08.:32:12.

allow employers to release people for enough time to get their

:32:13.:32:16.

reserves? Exactly. I think they could maybe get a spike in people if

:32:17.:32:21.

they could go back to the business groups and see if they can off in

:32:22.:32:27.

fairness to the Minister of defence, they are putting huge effort into

:32:28.:32:28.

that particular one. The vote yesterday, you were not

:32:29.:32:39.

forced to be there. 92, including labour and a lot of Tories, voted

:32:40.:32:43.

for the motion. Non-went against it. 92-0. It is a big feeling that

:32:44.:32:50.

we should do something about this. I think there is also a bigger issue

:32:51.:32:53.

in the defence budget. The kind of target is moving. Philip Hammond

:32:54.:32:59.

talked a lot about cyber security and making defence for cyber

:33:00.:33:06.

attacks. I think a lot more will have to be deployed to these kind of

:33:07.:33:10.

invisible programmes that we don't see in terms of Italians and

:33:11.:33:13.

soldiers. But Abe acre chunk of the budget in the next 20 years is going

:33:14.:33:15.

to move. -- battalions. A pleasure as always. You could

:33:16.:33:27.

always put someone from the Daily Politics into the reserve is is.

:33:28.:33:31.

Somebody from this programme could become a reservist. That could be

:33:32.:33:36.

positive. Have you seen our team? I've seen a couple. We are talking

:33:37.:33:40.

about the defence of the nation, I don't think you should be so

:33:41.:33:45.

cavalier. Well, maybe you could give some money to defence. Equalities

:33:46.:33:51.

Minister Jo Swinson is seven months pregnant, but at to stand through

:33:52.:33:55.

proceedings. Many people were outraged and the incident is

:33:56.:34:01.

becoming known as seatgate. She arrives slightly late and had to

:34:02.:34:04.

stand at the back of the chamber. If you look closely, the bottom

:34:05.:34:07.

left-hand corner of the screen, in these pictures. She is in the pink

:34:08.:34:13.

dress. You might think, why do we not zoom in and show you? Well, we

:34:14.:34:17.

are not allowed to zoom in, because we cannot tamper in any way with

:34:18.:34:22.

parliamentary footage. I promise you, she is there, standing. Later,

:34:23.:34:27.

she moves to stand on the steps. It is a moving story. That is where she

:34:28.:34:30.

remained for the rest of the session. Why it has become such a

:34:31.:34:42.

big story, why is that? I have been seven months pregnant twice, let me

:34:43.:34:46.

tell you, you want to sit down. I looked down and thought, is anybody

:34:47.:34:52.

going to give Jo a seat? I had the same thought. She tweeted me this

:34:53.:34:56.

morning and said she was happy to stand. I saw that. But I think the

:34:57.:35:01.

reason that it has kind of... Sort of blown up like this, it is another

:35:02.:35:07.

example of this slight element within politics, where women get a

:35:08.:35:13.

slight short shrift in the chamber. To me, it strikes of... I don't

:35:14.:35:16.

think everybody was collectively trying to be rude to her, but it is

:35:17.:35:20.

a lack of consideration or lack of awareness. I have a point on the

:35:21.:35:35.

tube, I always make a point to look around for a pregnant woman. But it

:35:36.:35:39.

is not a male-female thing, whether you are a man or woman, healthy and

:35:40.:35:44.

Rosalie Young, if you see a pregnant woman, a woman should give up her

:35:45.:35:48.

seat as much as a man? -- relatively young. Absolutely. I think women,

:35:49.:35:56.

once they have been pregnant, they are slightly more aware of it. But

:35:57.:36:01.

for Jo, it is bad enough being seven months pregnant and being on show

:36:02.:36:06.

all of the time, and then to have to be constantly in the news about

:36:07.:36:10.

being pregnant, it must be awful for her. I'm not surprised she wanted to

:36:11.:36:17.

kill the story. Many Tories were standing. Is the Tory party so

:36:18.:36:21.

bereft of gentlemen that not one could say hey, Jo, have a seat? I'm

:36:22.:36:28.

not sure that the Tory leadership is particularly down on women or does

:36:29.:36:34.

not notice them in the chamber. I think a lot of Tory MPs would tell

:36:35.:36:39.

you, when it comes to rudeness and ignoring people, the Tory leadership

:36:40.:36:45.

is an equal opportunities organisation. Rude to everyone? I

:36:46.:36:55.

remember when Cheryl Devon stood up to talk. She had a leopard-print

:36:56.:37:00.

shirt on. The backbenchers made growling noises. And then another

:37:01.:37:05.

MP, where they were having a conversation about whether her top

:37:06.:37:09.

was too low. Calm down, dear. There is implicit sexism in the chamber

:37:10.:37:13.

all the time. I'm not saying this is a sexist moment, but there is an

:37:14.:37:18.

issue. This was a basic failure of manners. She had to let it known

:37:19.:37:22.

that, just because she is seven months pregnant, she has not lost

:37:23.:37:28.

the ability to stand on her feet and that is quite sexist.

:37:29.:37:32.

That is not the case, but whether you are a man or a woman, it is

:37:33.:37:40.

polite to offer her a seat. We had a debate about this at work today. I

:37:41.:37:45.

found when I was pregnant that I did not want to ask people to get up for

:37:46.:37:51.

me. It's embarrassing. Of course, she is not going to, even though she

:37:52.:37:58.

could. Very well. It will be the debate all weekend. It is day two of

:37:59.:38:04.

the Scottish National party conference in Perth. They will hear

:38:05.:38:09.

from Alex Salmond. It is his last address to this particular national

:38:10.:38:13.

conference before next year's referendum on independence in

:38:14.:38:15.

September. This morning, Scotland Finance Minister John Swinney has

:38:16.:38:19.

been outlining his vision for the Scottish economy in an independent

:38:20.:38:25.

country. When people come to consider the independence question,

:38:26.:38:27.

they will understandably want to know about the prospects for the

:38:28.:38:31.

economy. We need to spell out the facts for the people. For the last

:38:32.:38:37.

five years, Scotland has had to face the challenges brought about by

:38:38.:38:40.

economic mismanagement of successive Westminster governments. Even before

:38:41.:38:45.

the financial crash, the UK has the third-largest structural budget

:38:46.:38:50.

deficit in the developed world. After five years of austerity, with

:38:51.:38:54.

another five years to come, the UK has not paid down the deficit and

:38:55.:38:58.

household incomes have fallen. The UK deficit is now ?121 billion. As

:38:59.:39:06.

part of the UK, every person in Scotland is paying the bill, paying

:39:07.:39:09.

the price for Westminster's mismanagement. When our opposition

:39:10.:39:15.

say that Scotland cannot afford to be independent because we might have

:39:16.:39:18.

to pay off some debts, let's remember who built up the debt.

:39:19.:39:25.

Let's remember how much of our oil wealth they squandered, running up

:39:26.:39:30.

that debt. Let's remember how much they are borrowing to pay off their

:39:31.:39:36.

debt. Let's remember that, if Scotland votes no, we will be

:39:37.:39:40.

saddled with UK debt, UK debt they have run out for many, many years to

:39:41.:39:47.

come. So, the Scots may know how to

:39:48.:39:51.

celebrate their Scottish identity, but what about the English? New

:39:52.:39:55.

polling out today from a think tank called British Future shows that

:39:56.:39:59.

only 40% of the snow that St George's Day is the 23rd of April.

:40:00.:40:05.

71% can name the date of the US Independence Day. That is despite

:40:06.:40:09.

the fact that 40% of people living in England feel more English and

:40:10.:40:16.

British. 61% want to see the flag of St George flown more widely across

:40:17.:40:19.

England. We asked some English people and one South African.

:40:20.:40:24.

Do you consider yourself to be British? Yes. What about English?

:40:25.:40:35.

Both. I think we should celebrate St George's Day as a public holiday. Do

:40:36.:40:38.

you think we celebrate being English? No, and when we do, we do

:40:39.:40:46.

the wrong thing, by going to the pub. Do you celebrate St George's

:40:47.:40:51.

Day? I go to the pub. Do you celebrate being English? St George's

:40:52.:40:58.

Day? Yes. Do you know when it is? I don't. We come together for sporting

:40:59.:41:06.

events, when needed. When do you consider yourself to be British? Not

:41:07.:41:12.

at all. I am proudly South African. But I do love London. It's a nice

:41:13.:41:19.

place. I used to work in the building industry, everybody

:41:20.:41:26.

celebrated St Patrick's Day. Irish people have a good knees up. People

:41:27.:41:31.

probably see the British, St George, the Cross flag, as something

:41:32.:41:41.

which is a bit scary. A bit English. Do you know when St George's Day is?

:41:42.:41:49.

No. Do you know when US Independence Day is? 4th of July. Obviously

:41:50.:41:57.

well-educated. We are joined now by Matthew Rhodes from British Future.

:41:58.:42:02.

Isn't part of the issue, the United Kingdom, in terms of size, is

:42:03.:42:07.

unbalanced. England is so much bigger than the other constituent

:42:08.:42:13.

parts, even bigger than all of them put together. So, when the English

:42:14.:42:16.

say they are English, they really mean they are British?

:42:17.:42:20.

Historically, I think Englishness and Britishness have been confused.

:42:21.:42:24.

When the Scots say they are Scottish, they say they are Scottish

:42:25.:42:28.

and British? I think they have been fused together for a long time. We

:42:29.:42:33.

are quite good in England as seeing England as being connected with

:42:34.:42:40.

sport. I was at the match the other week and you felt Englishness there,

:42:41.:42:44.

you felt proud to be endless. But I think we have been a 90 minute

:42:45.:42:46.

nation when it has come to Englishness. There has been a

:42:47.:42:51.

change, there is more Englishness in the stadium. If you look at England

:42:52.:42:55.

winning the World Cup in 1966, if you look around there and it is a

:42:56.:42:59.

sea of union flags. A sea of the British flag. You go now, and it is

:43:00.:43:06.

the St George 's Cross? That is right, the big change was Euro 96.

:43:07.:43:15.

The St George's Park was reclaimed as a benign and patriotic, open and

:43:16.:43:19.

inclusive symbol. I think it is interesting, what we found was that

:43:20.:43:26.

English should be celebrated more through St George's Day, being

:43:27.:43:33.

emphasised more, and the fact that if it was a bank holiday and would

:43:34.:43:36.

help. They just want another bank holiday! I think the politicians

:43:37.:43:44.

often found it difficult to talk about this. Ed Miliband had a crack

:43:45.:43:48.

last year and then went strangely quiet. That is why we want a

:43:49.:43:53.

festival of Englishness, not a conference or seminar. Lots of

:43:54.:43:57.

culture, lots of politics, musicians, authors, playwrights, a

:43:58.:44:02.

sports panel. It is really something to celebrate, to talk about

:44:03.:44:06.

celebrating being English rather than analysing it. Isn't it

:44:07.:44:09.

inevitable that the Scots, the Welsh, the Northern Irish, they will

:44:10.:44:20.

fight to preserve their identity. The English do not have to do that,

:44:21.:44:25.

they are 85% of Britain? Yes, and also, I quite liked the fact that we

:44:26.:44:29.

English people do not actually feel the need to celebrate being English.

:44:30.:44:32.

They welcome all of these people from all over the world into their

:44:33.:44:36.

country and they are relaxed about it. The problem with the whole Saint

:44:37.:44:43.

Georges flag is, historically, it has been a really negative symbol. I

:44:44.:44:49.

do agree that it is maybe good to reclaim that. But I'm very happy for

:44:50.:44:55.

Englishness to stay in the stadium. And just be British? Absolutely, it

:44:56.:44:59.

doesn't even occur to me, being English. As always, the Scots are to

:45:00.:45:07.

blame. Over the past 30 years at Billy Bragg or so, the Scots have

:45:08.:45:09.

thought of themselves as more Scottish. They don't sing the

:45:10.:45:16.

British national anthem, they sing the Scottish album. You would never

:45:17.:45:20.

see a union flag at a Scottish international match. You only see

:45:21.:45:23.

the St Andrews like. As the Scots have made them feel more Scottish

:45:24.:45:28.

and perhaps less British, we will find out by how much in a years

:45:29.:45:31.

time, naturally, the initial going to say, all right, I think we should

:45:32.:45:36.

be a bit more English? The Scots have been banging on about national

:45:37.:45:41.

identity for 40 years now. I was there any Euro 96, as a Scotland

:45:42.:45:45.

fan, when Gascoigne scored that regrettably brilliant goal. I was

:45:46.:45:50.

struck that day by seeing, the first time I have seen at Wembley, that

:45:51.:45:54.

many crosses of St George. At the time, I thought, this is bound to

:45:55.:45:58.

end up having a political manifestation of some sort. And it

:45:59.:46:03.

hasn't. I think the reason for that is, actually, you have to understand

:46:04.:46:08.

house attic Scottish society has been an Welsh society. England, in

:46:09.:46:12.

the last 20 or 30 years, has gone through a social demographic

:46:13.:46:18.

revolution. We were talking about immigration and it is really

:46:19.:46:20.

transforming England in ways we were only just beginning to understand.

:46:21.:46:27.

Scotland has stayed homogenous. Very few immigrants. Culturally, it is

:46:28.:46:32.

inward looking. Many of my countrymen would deny that. But

:46:33.:46:34.

England, I think the question of what is Englishness is still

:46:35.:46:38.

evolving at high speed and is very unclear. If the English want to feel

:46:39.:46:46.

more English, and I think they do for the reasons we have given,

:46:47.:46:50.

nothing wrong with that, it does make Britishness more of the

:46:51.:46:53.

umbrella concept, because you do not hear immigrants calling themselves

:46:54.:46:59.

English - they call themselves British, they are immigrants to

:47:00.:47:03.

Britain, because they themselves regard Britain as the catchall. That

:47:04.:47:08.

is right, I think that has historically been the case, and

:47:09.:47:11.

Britishness has been a very civic identity because it has always been

:47:12.:47:16.

multinational. But I think there is a rise of English self

:47:17.:47:20.

identification amongst ethnic minority groups... Really? Yes, I

:47:21.:47:26.

think in the polling we have done, about seven out of ten would in some

:47:27.:47:29.

ways described English to themselves, not as a primary

:47:30.:47:34.

identity, but it is there in the background. Interesting, a

:47:35.:47:39.

generational change. And there is life left in Team GB, Mo Farah and

:47:40.:47:43.

Chris Hoy on the same team. We had better leave it there, enjoy your

:47:44.:47:48.

festival. 50 years ago today the country was taken by surprise when

:47:49.:47:53.

Harold Macmillan resigned due to ill-health. The bigger shock was

:47:54.:47:57.

still to come when the Queen invited a Conservative peer, the 14th Earl

:47:58.:48:05.

of home, a Scottish aristocrats to form a government and become prime

:48:06.:48:11.

Minster. This is the days when the Prime Minister is a merged from a

:48:12.:48:16.

magic circle of grandees, there were no elections for leader. Sir Alec

:48:17.:48:20.

Douglas-Home, as you became once you announced his peerage, and he had

:48:21.:48:24.

won a by-election to become an MP, went on to serve for just under one

:48:25.:48:29.

year before Labour's Harold Wilson won the 1964 election, but won by

:48:30.:48:36.

only four seats, he just squeeze in. Douglas-Home was not cut out for the

:48:37.:48:40.

television age, indeed he seemed to belong to another age altogether, as

:48:41.:48:44.

Britain entered the swinging 60s. But he had his as Myra is, here is a

:48:45.:48:49.

Barbara Cartland, a Conservative activist. -- admirers. I rather

:48:50.:48:56.

flatter myself that I am rather clever, because when it came up, I

:48:57.:49:00.

said he was the only possible man. He had worked with my brother on the

:49:01.:49:05.

Imperial league, and I'd always had tremendous admiration for him.

:49:06.:49:08.

Secondly, he is one of the few people was old enough to Prime

:49:09.:49:11.

Minister who can still talk to you, and I do not mean beatniks, but the

:49:12.:49:19.

ordinary people, understanding, trying to understand politics. What

:49:20.:49:22.

people will do is talk in very grand words, you know, European unity, it

:49:23.:49:28.

means absolutely nothing to the ordinary housewife who wants to know

:49:29.:49:31.

what people are to go party is going to do for her. As you already know,

:49:32.:49:36.

I have been appointed Prime Minister by the Queen, and there are one or

:49:37.:49:40.

two things I would like to say to you at once. First, that my task is

:49:41.:49:49.

to serve the whole nation. Secondly, no-one need expect any stunts from

:49:50.:49:54.

me, merely playing straight talking. That was Alec

:49:55.:49:58.

Douglas-Home, his first television address from Downing Street. We are

:49:59.:50:02.

joined by the deputy editor of the Sunday Telegraph at the time,

:50:03.:50:05.

Peregrine Worsthorne, back in the BBC studios, exactly 50 years ago to

:50:06.:50:09.

the day he took part in a live Panorama programme on what was then

:50:10.:50:14.

the Tory leadership crisis. Welcome back to the studio. You have been

:50:15.:50:21.

out and -- in and out since, so let me ask you, when the Tory leadership

:50:22.:50:24.

battle began, it was clear that Harold Macmillan was stepping down,

:50:25.:50:29.

Alec Douglas-Home was not regarded as being on the list at the

:50:30.:50:34.

beginning, was he? No, no, he was a surprise. And I suppose we ought to

:50:35.:50:40.

have guessed, because he had had quite a successful party conference

:50:41.:50:47.

speech. Yes, the famous Blackpool party conference. The famous

:50:48.:50:53.

Blackpool conference just two days before he got the job. I remember

:50:54.:50:59.

Rab Butler looking very disconcerted, he was expecting to

:51:00.:51:03.

succeed himself, and it did cross my mind then, although it was difficult

:51:04.:51:09.

to believe that Alec Douglas-Home wanted to be Prime Minister and was

:51:10.:51:13.

going to try to have a go. But before that, as you rightly say, he

:51:14.:51:21.

had not been on the list at all. Is it right to say... Rab Butler was

:51:22.:51:24.

seen as the frontrunner, the apparent for a long time to Mr

:51:25.:51:29.

Macmillan. Is it right to say that, actually, Mr MacMillan did not want

:51:30.:51:34.

him and that was the opening for Alec Douglas-Home? I think one of

:51:35.:51:38.

the mysteries of British politics at that time was the degree to which

:51:39.:51:43.

Conservative Members of Parliament distrusted Rab Butler. It was partly

:51:44.:51:48.

because he had not served in the war, which was still a major

:51:49.:51:54.

Conservative class, there were certainly more Conservative MPs who

:51:55.:52:01.

supported Macmillan, and most of the front bench have suffered bad wounds

:52:02.:52:08.

in the First World War. Rab Butler had sat at home, and I think it was

:52:09.:52:16.

judged then that he was not a man of courage, decisiveness, and you would

:52:17.:52:19.

probably not make a good Prime Minister. I never thought he was

:52:20.:52:33.

held with that degree of passion. I think that remains and an unsaid

:52:34.:52:38.

question, and it cannot simply have been because he was not in the First

:52:39.:52:45.

World War. In any case, he did arise deep scepticism about his qualities.

:52:46.:52:52.

We are talking 1963, heading up to 1964, Britain is becoming a very

:52:53.:52:56.

different country, the 60s are beginning to come apace, all the

:52:57.:53:00.

changes that would imply, and here the Conservatives pick the 14th Earl

:53:01.:53:07.

of Home, who seems out of kilter with the times. The Tories will have

:53:08.:53:12.

been in power for 13 years by the time 19 624 comes around, Labour has

:53:13.:53:18.

chosen the grammar school boy, the Economist with a first from Oxford

:53:19.:53:23.

in Mr Wilson. And yet the Tories lose by only four seats, it is a

:53:24.:53:31.

remarkable result. That was the wisdom of the British people, to

:53:32.:53:37.

elect people from the class that were trained to be politicians from

:53:38.:53:42.

the word go. It was still a possibility, it isn't now, but you

:53:43.:53:48.

and I crossed swords on whether it should be. We have indeed, I have

:53:49.:53:55.

still got the scars! So I just think it is surprisingly Labour did not

:53:56.:54:01.

win by a lot more. Yes. I think Alec Douglas-Home must take a lot of

:54:02.:54:06.

credit. You knew him. Yes, journalists talk about knowing

:54:07.:54:10.

politicians, it is a very false claim, really, you know them for a

:54:11.:54:15.

particular reason, a limited reason, so I did not really know him in a

:54:16.:54:22.

proper way. Let me bring Iain in, Alec Douglas-Home emerged from this

:54:23.:54:26.

bizarre, almost like choosing a Pope, it was, because at least there

:54:27.:54:32.

is a vote among the Cardinals. Iain Macleod, in a famous article in the

:54:33.:54:37.

Spectator, described it as a magic circle of Tory grandees, nearly all

:54:38.:54:40.

of whom had gone to Eton and were related. It brought the end of this

:54:41.:54:45.

way of choosing a Tory leader, the next leader was elected. Guess, he

:54:46.:54:50.

was elected from a very different background, then Thatcher followed.

:54:51.:54:55.

I am reminded, though, that there are themes that run through this

:54:56.:54:58.

that still concern you in Conservative politics. Very often,

:54:59.:55:01.

when the Conservative Party is choosing a leader, it chooses a

:55:02.:55:05.

leader to stop somebody else. So they chose Alec Douglas-Home to stop

:55:06.:55:10.

Rab Butler, Heseltine has to be stopped, Clark, who was the natural

:55:11.:55:17.

Conservative leader, revive their fortunes never got to do it because

:55:18.:55:23.

the party wanted to stop him. I am too young to remember! Final word

:55:24.:55:35.

from you. If Macmillan at... I think Macmillan's government was very much

:55:36.:55:41.

of the old guard, and people like the newcomers, who were not part of

:55:42.:55:47.

that world, like Iain Macleod, to put up with Macmillan, if one of

:55:48.:55:54.

them had got chosen, I think that the system of giving the upper-class

:55:55.:56:00.

sort of priority as an advantage, because they had it in their bones

:56:01.:56:05.

to govern, which I think the present political setup greatly lacks.

:56:06.:56:11.

Politicians are not drawing on that. Cameron was not born to it?

:56:12.:56:16.

Cameron, I think, is a sort of exception. Cameron has to pretend

:56:17.:56:21.

not to be part of that world. He used to be, but he has to pretend

:56:22.:56:25.

not to be from the upper-class, if you like, but in the old days not to

:56:26.:56:29.

belong to that was a disadvantage. In any case, these are deep waters.

:56:30.:56:34.

And remember, Mr Wilson won by four seats, but the following day China

:56:35.:56:38.

detonated the bomb, and many people thought that if it had happened on

:56:39.:56:44.

election day, Alec Douglas-Home may well have won. Fascinating. If you

:56:45.:56:47.

want to see more about him becoming Prime Minister, BBC Parliament is

:56:48.:56:51.

running a special programme from eight o'clock tomorrow evening.

:56:52.:56:54.

These programmes are always great fun to watch. Back to this week and

:56:55.:56:58.

the rest of the political news in just 60 seconds.

:56:59.:57:03.

The Chancellor has been to China, where his big takeaway was

:57:04.:57:10.

investment in British nuclear power. Look who he bumped into, Boris,

:57:11.:57:15.

quoting literature. Who was Harry Potter's first girlfriend? What?

:57:16.:57:23.

That is right! A Chinese overseas student! Also travelling, Hillary

:57:24.:57:28.

Clinton was in London. She got the welcome given to many

:57:29.:57:32.

out-of-towners, a parking ticket. Maybe the US will be able to pay it

:57:33.:57:35.

after Congress finally voted to raise the country's debt ceiling,

:57:36.:57:40.

ending the government shutdown. Lasting much longer, plebgate, the

:57:41.:57:45.

police watchdog issued a report that was highly critical of some of the

:57:46.:57:50.

officers involved. Finally, a boardroom over the badger cull, a

:57:51.:57:53.

pilot programme in Gloucestershire admits its target for the number of

:57:54.:57:57.

critters killed by half, at least it is another excuse to play that clip

:57:58.:58:02.

of the environment Secretary. The badgers have moved the goalposts!

:58:03.:58:09.

Those cunning badgers, always moving the goalposts. Just time to find out

:58:10.:58:16.

the answer to the quiz, four pictures of the real Eric Pickles,

:58:17.:58:21.

what is going on in all the others? Elizabeth, you said you knew. I said

:58:22.:58:28.

Iain new! It is definitely on the beach. What is the right answer? The

:58:29.:58:37.

rest of them are cardboard cutouts, he has travelled the world with a

:58:38.:58:42.

student, a cardboard cutout. Eric Pickles, the real man, not the

:58:43.:58:46.

cardboard cutout, he will be my guest on Sunday politics this

:58:47.:58:51.

weekend. I hope you can join me on BBC One, Sunday morning. That is it

:58:52.:58:55.

for today, thank you to my guests, the one o'clock news is starting on

:58:56.:58:58.

BBC One. Join us next week, bye-bye!

:58:59.:59:01.

Download Subtitles

SRT

ASS