Browse content similar to 13/02/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Afternoon, folks, welcome to the Daily Politics. George Osborne has | :00:33. | :00:39. | |
gone to Edinburgh and he's playing hardball over Scottish independence. | :00:40. | :00:48. | |
He says if Scotland votes to leave the UK it votes to leave the pound. | :00:49. | :00:52. | |
It's the same message from Labour and the Lib Dems. The SNP says it's | :00:53. | :00:56. | |
bullying. We'll speak to Scotland's deputy first minister, Nicola | :00:57. | :00:59. | |
Sturgeon. The good news is the Bank of England says the economy's | :01:00. | :01:02. | |
storming back to growth. The bad news is, it says it's not | :01:03. | :01:05. | |
sustainable. We'll be reading the economic runes with two leading | :01:06. | :01:08. | |
forecasters. Gordon Brown's back in the Commons today. It's not often we | :01:09. | :01:13. | |
say that. So what's the former Prime Minister been up to since leaving | :01:14. | :01:26. | |
Number Ten? My name is Sarah and I was born in October. My And are the | :01:27. | :01:32. | |
odds stacked against children born in the summer? Name is Celia and I | :01:33. | :01:44. | |
was born in August. IM Andrew and I was born in May. What does that say? | :01:45. | :01:56. | |
All that in the next hour and with us for the whole show today is the | :01:57. | :01:59. | |
deputy first minister of Scotland and deputy SNP leader Nicola | :02:00. | :02:02. | |
Sturgeon. Nice to have you in London for a change, Nicola. It is nice to | :02:03. | :02:07. | |
have you in London and not on a telephone line. And don't panic. For | :02:08. | :02:13. | |
those of you who like a bit of balance on these issues, and we know | :02:14. | :02:17. | |
there are many of you - the Scottish Secretary Alistair Carmichael will | :02:18. | :02:21. | |
be our guest of the day on the show next month. Let's start with the | :02:22. | :02:24. | |
weather. And what weather it's been. Tens of thousands of homes are | :02:25. | :02:27. | |
without power this morning after hurricane-force winds battered the | :02:28. | :02:30. | |
UK yesterday. Forecasters say the stormy weather will subside briefly | :02:31. | :02:33. | |
today before more gales and rain arrive tomorrow. Western parts of | :02:34. | :02:36. | |
Wales and the north west of England have been badly affected and severe | :02:37. | :02:40. | |
flood warnings remain in place in the south and south west of England. | :02:41. | :02:52. | |
The Transport Secretary told the Commons this morning that ?61 | :02:53. | :02:56. | |
million would be spent to repair damage to the transport | :02:57. | :02:59. | |
infrastructure. The bad weather has prompted widespread debate about the | :03:00. | :03:02. | |
role played by climate change. Later today, the Energy Secretary Ed Davey | :03:03. | :03:06. | |
- he's a Liberal Democrat - will use a speech to attack some | :03:07. | :03:09. | |
Conservatives who, he says, are undermining efforts to tackle | :03:10. | :03:13. | |
climate change. Mr Davey will say that the political consensus on | :03:14. | :03:16. | |
climate change "is in danger of breaking down". The Deputy Prime | :03:17. | :03:18. | |
Minister Nick Clegg reinforced the message on his regular radio | :03:19. | :03:28. | |
phone-in for LBC this morning: there are prominent conservatives, Lord | :03:29. | :03:31. | |
Lawson and others, who do not accept it. They are entitled to that view | :03:32. | :03:36. | |
and they can argue the case as they do, but given that we have had this | :03:37. | :03:43. | |
recent international report from the largest number of scientists ever, | :03:44. | :03:48. | |
and we have received advice as well, he came to the Cabinet and sat | :03:49. | :03:52. | |
there in front of the cameras and said, "there is no doubt" . Nicola | :03:53. | :04:04. | |
Sturgeon, do you think the extreme weather over the last few years, is | :04:05. | :04:09. | |
it linked to climate change? Undoubtedly. I agree with Nick Clegg | :04:10. | :04:15. | |
and people are entitled to their views but we need to spend our time | :04:16. | :04:19. | |
deciding how to address climate change. What is happening in the | :04:20. | :04:24. | |
south of England is grim and my heart goes out to people. We have | :04:25. | :04:33. | |
got eight relatively lightly in Scotland but there is no doubt that | :04:34. | :04:36. | |
we have to take climate change seriously. Nick Clegg mentioned Lord | :04:37. | :04:47. | |
Lawson and he said again today that they are -- there is no evidence | :04:48. | :04:53. | |
that climate change is causing flooding. He said that the | :04:54. | :04:56. | |
government should stop littering the countryside with solar panels and | :04:57. | :05:01. | |
wind turbines. Does he have a point? No, he does not. I think it is | :05:02. | :05:11. | |
wrong. I think making sure we are investing in renewable energy is | :05:12. | :05:14. | |
important, we are doing that in Scotland. We need a balanced energy | :05:15. | :05:18. | |
policy. There are immediate policies that needs to be dealt with. Loading | :05:19. | :05:25. | |
flood defences, I think that will be a big priority for the government in | :05:26. | :05:28. | |
London as a result of what has happened is in the last few weeks. | :05:29. | :05:37. | |
-- wielding flood defences. Should those views be dismissed out of | :05:38. | :05:47. | |
hand? I do think, I absolutely do think that we should treat this with | :05:48. | :05:52. | |
healthy scepticism and not be diverted into a debate about the | :05:53. | :05:59. | |
rights and wrongs of climate change. People flooding in Somerset | :06:00. | :06:03. | |
will get very little comfort from this debate and want to know what is | :06:04. | :06:07. | |
being done here and now and how as a society we face up to things long | :06:08. | :06:13. | |
term. Some of the scientific community do say it is not always | :06:14. | :06:18. | |
man-made but sometimes it is down to human activity. I am not saying we | :06:19. | :06:24. | |
should not have a debate but I think it is wasted energy having all of it | :06:25. | :06:28. | |
spent on that debate rather than thinking how we address the issues | :06:29. | :06:33. | |
of climate change. You talked about Scotland's leading the way in terms | :06:34. | :06:36. | |
of renewables. Were you disappointed when they failed to reach their | :06:37. | :06:44. | |
climate change targets? Marginally. But that must've been disappointing? | :06:45. | :06:51. | |
I want to see us exceeding our targets. We are confident we will. | :06:52. | :06:58. | |
We passed the climate change legislation and we are stretching | :06:59. | :07:01. | |
ourselves, being ambitious. We fell marginally short but that is a us | :07:02. | :07:13. | |
becoming... Letters leave it there. Now it's time for our daily quiz. | :07:14. | :07:17. | |
The question for today is which of the following has our guest of the | :07:18. | :07:20. | |
day Nicola Sturgeon admitted that she doesn't like? Is it... A) the | :07:21. | :07:23. | |
sound of bagpipes b) being Alex Salmond's deputy c) historical | :07:24. | :07:26. | |
fiction or d) cooking? Later on in the show Nicola will give us the | :07:27. | :07:34. | |
correct answer. I will have to think what the right answer is! What are | :07:35. | :07:40. | |
you suggesting, Andrew? Sorry! An independent Scotland wouldn't be | :07:41. | :07:46. | |
able to keep the pound. That was the stark message from George Osborne | :07:47. | :07:49. | |
this morning as he went to Edinburgh to tell Alex Salmond and the SNP he | :07:50. | :07:53. | |
won't support their plans for a currency union between Scotland and | :07:54. | :07:56. | |
the rest of the UK, if Scotland votes for independence on 18 | :07:57. | :07:59. | |
September. And George Osborne isn't alone on this one - over to Jo to | :08:00. | :08:06. | |
explain more. Thanks, Andrew. Yes, George Osborne has told the SNP he | :08:07. | :08:10. | |
won't entertain the idea of a currency union, saying the only way | :08:11. | :08:13. | |
for Scotland to maintain its "economic security" and keep the | :08:14. | :08:17. | |
pound is by staying in the UK. The Treasury's looked at the idea of a | :08:18. | :08:20. | |
formal currency union, and says for it to work both governments would | :08:21. | :08:23. | |
have to underwrite each other's banks - and even allow taxpayers on | :08:24. | :08:27. | |
one side of the border to subsidise each other. The Chancellor says this | :08:28. | :08:31. | |
won't work, and in a rare display of cross-party unity, Ed Balls agrees | :08:32. | :08:35. | |
with him. The shadow Chancellor has also ruled out a currency union, | :08:36. | :08:39. | |
saying it was time for the SNP to join "the real world", and chief | :08:40. | :08:42. | |
secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander says the Lib Dems are on | :08:43. | :08:47. | |
the same page. This follows the visit to Edinburgh by Bank of | :08:48. | :08:49. | |
England governor Mark Carney last month, when he said a currency union | :08:50. | :08:53. | |
would only work if there was "some ceding of national sovereignty". The | :08:54. | :09:00. | |
SNP has accused the three political parties at Westminster of ganging up | :09:01. | :09:03. | |
to "bully" Scotland, and insist keeping the pound would be in the | :09:04. | :09:07. | |
interests of Scotland and the rest of the UK. Here's what George | :09:08. | :09:15. | |
Osborne had to say earlier. I could not, as Chancellor, recommends that | :09:16. | :09:20. | |
we could share the pound with an independent Scotland. The evidence | :09:21. | :09:24. | |
shows that it would not work, it would cost jobs, and cost money. It | :09:25. | :09:31. | |
would not provide economic security for Scotland or the rest of the UK, | :09:32. | :09:36. | |
I do not think any other Chancellor of the extent would come to a | :09:37. | :09:41. | |
different view. The SNP says that if Scotland becomes independent there | :09:42. | :09:45. | |
would be a currency union and Scotland would share the pound. | :09:46. | :09:50. | |
People need to know that that is not going to happen. Sharing the pound | :09:51. | :09:56. | |
is not in the interests of the people of Scotland or the rest of | :09:57. | :10:02. | |
the UK. That was the Chancellor George Osborne. Nicola Sturgeon is | :10:03. | :10:15. | |
with us. Many have said that if Scotland went independent you do not | :10:16. | :10:18. | |
get a currency union with the rest of the UK. These are all politicians | :10:19. | :10:24. | |
who want Scotland to vote no so it is in their interest to stir up fear | :10:25. | :10:31. | |
and uncertainty. They have just said that if you leave Britain, you leave | :10:32. | :10:37. | |
the pound so what is your plan? I will come onto that in a second the | :10:38. | :10:44. | |
point of fact here, and this is what Mervyn King said, the in reality | :10:45. | :10:52. | |
would be very different... You do not know that! Let's assume they do | :10:53. | :10:57. | |
stick to their guns, we are talking about very important things here. | :10:58. | :11:02. | |
What is the other plan? The fiscal commission which was asked by the | :11:03. | :11:06. | |
government to look at the currency options has laid it all out. The | :11:07. | :11:12. | |
currency of sterling within a currency union... What is in your | :11:13. | :11:16. | |
plan? We want a currency union because it is in the best interest | :11:17. | :11:22. | |
of Scotland and the UK. Forgave me, but if you do not get that and it is | :11:23. | :11:26. | |
important that the people of Scotland and the UK know the answer, | :11:27. | :11:29. | |
if they are true to their word, these three politicians from three | :11:30. | :11:36. | |
different parties, what is the plan? Scotland cannot be prevented from | :11:37. | :11:41. | |
using the pound... It could not be a currency union. I believe George | :11:42. | :11:51. | |
Osborne is bluffing. Can you tell me... I would really like an answer | :11:52. | :11:55. | |
to this question and it is simple. Assuming they are not bluffing, and | :11:56. | :12:00. | |
there are many reasons to believe they are not, what would then be the | :12:01. | :12:08. | |
position on the currency? Scotland cannot be prevented from using the | :12:09. | :12:11. | |
currency but I am not going to be the lead out of a position that is | :12:12. | :12:16. | |
in the best interest of Scotland and the UK. I know that is what George | :12:17. | :12:21. | |
Osborne wants to try and do but I am not going to allow him to do that. | :12:22. | :12:24. | |
Let me tell you why the currency union is in the best interest of the | :12:25. | :12:37. | |
union. Having a separate currency in Scotland would cost English | :12:38. | :12:41. | |
businesses hundreds of millions of pounds in transaction costs. If we | :12:42. | :12:44. | |
do not have a currency union, the balance of payments loses ?30 | :12:45. | :12:50. | |
billion of oil and gas. The trade deficit for the UK goes through the | :12:51. | :12:55. | |
roof and impacts on the value of sterling. These are common-sense | :12:56. | :13:06. | |
reasons why... People should not be fooled by it. That may or may not be | :13:07. | :13:12. | |
true but my purpose this morning is not to argue on the merits of the | :13:13. | :13:16. | |
currency union, and I will try one more time. If they do not agree with | :13:17. | :13:22. | |
you and think a currency union without a political union, which is | :13:23. | :13:26. | |
what it will be, if they ring that is not right for the rest of the UK, | :13:27. | :13:34. | |
what do you do? -- if they think. I have already said that the fiscal | :13:35. | :13:37. | |
commission has set out the currency options for Scotland. With the | :13:38. | :13:45. | |
greatest of respect, just because George Osborne tries to intimidate | :13:46. | :13:48. | |
Scotland it does not mean we should forget Scotland. He is laying out a | :13:49. | :13:54. | |
viable case for the rest of the UK to say that if you go independent, | :13:55. | :14:01. | |
we do not want a currency union. It is perfectly respectable. He is | :14:02. | :14:06. | |
entitled to argue that. I am entitled to argue the position that | :14:07. | :14:09. | |
I believe passionately and strongly is the best one for Scotland. Is it | :14:10. | :14:15. | |
true that you said that if they stick to their guns and you do not | :14:16. | :14:20. | |
get a currency union, an independent Scotland would not take its share of | :14:21. | :14:26. | |
national debt? Let me be clear, I want to see an independent | :14:27. | :14:32. | |
Scotland... What about the UK debt? Assets and liabilities go | :14:33. | :14:36. | |
hand-in-hand. You cannot have a position, which I think George | :14:37. | :14:40. | |
Osborne is articulating, that Scotland should be left with a share | :14:41. | :14:45. | |
of liabilities but no assets. I am pointing out the logical conclusion | :14:46. | :14:51. | |
of his position. I want Scotland to take on a fair share of its service. | :14:52. | :14:56. | |
Let me clarify this. It is not a threat to say you cannot hold the | :14:57. | :15:02. | |
currency of the country you have left. If you do not get a currency | :15:03. | :15:07. | |
union, the Scotland grenade on its share of national debt? Does it? As | :15:08. | :15:15. | |
the Treasury said just a couple of weeks ago, the debt is legally the | :15:16. | :15:23. | |
Treasurys. I think it would be right for Scotland to take a share of the | :15:24. | :15:26. | |
national debt, but that goes hand-in-hand with the question of | :15:27. | :15:31. | |
the share of assets. Watt I would say you haven't got a choice, | :15:32. | :15:35. | |
whether you get the pound or not. You cannot get better than that. Who | :15:36. | :15:47. | |
is going to lend to a country... Where its political leader has | :15:48. | :15:51. | |
already said it's going to renege on a substantial proportion of the | :15:52. | :15:58. | |
debt? Never mind the respect, and to the question. Scotland becomes a | :15:59. | :16:01. | |
pariah if you don't take your share of the debt, correct? I want them to | :16:02. | :16:08. | |
take their share of debt. I wasn't disparaging your degree. I was going | :16:09. | :16:14. | |
to quote Sir James early full stop he was quoted by Mark Carney. He is | :16:15. | :16:22. | |
in print in the Scotsman, your former newspaper, today saying | :16:23. | :16:25. | |
exactly why he thinks a currency union is in the best interests of | :16:26. | :16:33. | |
Scotland. That is not the issue I'm asking. I put it to you that if you | :16:34. | :16:37. | |
renege, if you go independent and renege on your share of UK national | :16:38. | :16:43. | |
debt, you will be an international pariah on the money markets. My | :16:44. | :16:48. | |
position is we won't come as you put it, renege on a share of the debt. | :16:49. | :16:53. | |
Once Scotland votes for independence, if that's what the | :16:54. | :16:57. | |
people of Scotland decide, we will have a currency union | :16:58. | :17:04. | |
underpinned... And if you don't? Scotland will have our share of | :17:05. | :17:11. | |
servicing the national debt. You assert that but you cannot prove it | :17:12. | :17:15. | |
and you take Scotland into the unknown by not answering a single | :17:16. | :17:22. | |
question I've asked you date on Plan B. Why are you so in favour of the | :17:23. | :17:28. | |
pound? The SNP called the pound a millstone round the neck of | :17:29. | :17:34. | |
Scotland. We asked our commission, looking at the currency options. | :17:35. | :17:39. | |
There are different options open. So you were wrong? We have looked at | :17:40. | :17:45. | |
the position. Because of the trading relationship, because of our | :17:46. | :17:48. | |
contribution to the balance of payments, because of the integrated | :17:49. | :17:52. | |
financial services market, it makes sense for Scotland to remain within | :17:53. | :17:59. | |
the union that way with sterling. In 2009 when Alex Salmond crowed that | :18:00. | :18:02. | |
sterling was thinking like a stone in the plummeting of the pound | :18:03. | :18:05. | |
Korean first the case for membership of the euro, he was wrong as well? | :18:06. | :18:11. | |
You have to judge these things with the prevailing circumstances at the | :18:12. | :18:16. | |
time. The Liberal Democrats fought the election name manifesto to go | :18:17. | :18:19. | |
into the euro. I don't think Nick Clegg would argue that to date. You | :18:20. | :18:23. | |
base this on proper information and advice. The position we are putting | :18:24. | :18:28. | |
forward now is the one that, in our judgment, is the right one. There | :18:29. | :18:32. | |
are good, hard-headed reasons why it is the right one for the rest of the | :18:33. | :18:38. | |
UK as well. Control of its own currency is a country's most potent | :18:39. | :18:43. | |
economic weapon, do you agree with that? I agree that Scotland should | :18:44. | :18:49. | |
stay within a sterling union. When it was said, there are simply no | :18:50. | :18:54. | |
other methods by which the economy can be finely tuned and geared to | :18:55. | :18:58. | |
meet the ever changing and accelerating challenges of the | :18:59. | :19:02. | |
information age. A country without its own currency is a country | :19:03. | :19:06. | |
without a steering wheel, breaks or accelerator, he was wrong? I don't | :19:07. | :19:11. | |
agree with that. Based on the advice of the Economist I've spoken of, | :19:12. | :19:15. | |
based on what is in the interest of businesses north and south of the | :19:16. | :19:19. | |
border, there was an opinion poll carried out at the turn of the year | :19:20. | :19:23. | |
that asked people in England not whether they thought Scotland should | :19:24. | :19:27. | |
be independent or not, but if Scotland was independent, should we | :19:28. | :19:31. | |
share a currency? 71% of people in England said yes. You want a | :19:32. | :19:36. | |
currency union which would involve the rest of the UK being your lender | :19:37. | :19:42. | |
of last resort, having to bail out the Scottish banks if they get into | :19:43. | :19:47. | |
another mess, as they did only a few years ago. And yet it is also your | :19:48. | :19:52. | |
policy that a loan on the European students, English students would | :19:53. | :19:56. | |
have to pay full fees at Scottish universities. You want that and you | :19:57. | :20:00. | |
want us to agree a currency union as well. Why would the rest of the UK | :20:01. | :20:03. | |
agreed to that when you want to discriminate against English | :20:04. | :20:09. | |
students? I don't want anybody to pay tuition fees. But you would | :20:10. | :20:13. | |
charge English students fees, wouldn't you? You won't be charging | :20:14. | :20:22. | |
German, Irish, French or Italian. England has the highest tuition | :20:23. | :20:26. | |
fees... You want us to be your lender of last resort and yet you | :20:27. | :20:30. | |
want to charge alone among Europeans full fees to the English, why would | :20:31. | :20:36. | |
anyone agree to that? I want a partnership agreement on lender of | :20:37. | :20:40. | |
last resort. England has the highest tuition fees and the whole of | :20:41. | :20:47. | |
Europe. Only 10% of students in England came to study in Scotland, | :20:48. | :20:52. | |
that would take up 80% of places. I wish there weren't tuition fees in | :20:53. | :20:58. | |
England. If the UK moved tuition fees in England, they wouldn't be | :20:59. | :21:03. | |
charged in Scotland either. Let's stay with the subject of the | :21:04. | :21:07. | |
referendum on Scottish independence. So far, attention has perhaps | :21:08. | :21:10. | |
understandably been focused on what might happen to Scotland if it votes | :21:11. | :21:14. | |
yes and decides to go it alone. But that wouldn't just affect people | :21:15. | :21:17. | |
living north of the border, it would be the beginning of the end of a | :21:18. | :21:21. | |
Union which began more than four centuries ago. Inevitably, that | :21:22. | :21:24. | |
would change life for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. So what might | :21:25. | :21:28. | |
the UK minus Scotland be like? Here's David Thompson. Ever wondered | :21:29. | :21:37. | |
why so many pubs are called the red Lion? Apparently, when James the | :21:38. | :21:41. | |
sixth of Scotland became James the first of England in 1603, he | :21:42. | :21:46. | |
insisted his coat of arms, the red Lion, be displayed on all buildings | :21:47. | :21:51. | |
of significance, including pubs. We may have the Union of the Crowns to | :21:52. | :21:55. | |
thank for the red line and and impart the UK, but that was more | :21:56. | :21:59. | |
than 400 years ago. In the future, what would the rest of the UK look | :22:00. | :22:03. | |
like politically, economically and perhaps even socially if Scotland | :22:04. | :22:07. | |
was no longer part of the picture? Well, the electoral map could look | :22:08. | :22:13. | |
very different. Labour would be the biggest sufferer. They would lose | :22:14. | :22:17. | |
the biggest bulk of the 59 seats which currently Scotland retains in | :22:18. | :22:21. | |
Parliament. The impact on the 2010 election would have been dramatic. | :22:22. | :22:28. | |
Instead of being short of a majority in Westminster come without Scotland | :22:29. | :22:31. | |
David Cameron would have had a majority of 21. But what might | :22:32. | :22:35. | |
happen after the vote for independence? We don't know that | :22:36. | :22:39. | |
without Scotland, whether that would have any effect on the internal | :22:40. | :22:43. | |
politics of the rest of the UK that remained. With the dynamic stay the | :22:44. | :22:47. | |
same or would it change somewhat? Certainly on paper it would make it | :22:48. | :22:50. | |
a much more difficult task for Labour to think of winning an | :22:51. | :22:53. | |
election in the future without Scotland. And what about the | :22:54. | :23:09. | |
economic 's? With the debt burden, it would rise. I think that is | :23:10. | :23:13. | |
likely to get the attention of credit rating agencies. That night | :23:14. | :23:18. | |
not make a big impact for the man on the street, but for the government | :23:19. | :23:21. | |
and Treasury finances, that would make a difference. Enough of the dry | :23:22. | :23:25. | |
politics and economics, how would the rest of UK handle a Scottish | :23:26. | :23:30. | |
departure? It's extremely important that we keep the UK as a whole. But | :23:31. | :23:34. | |
if it were to happen we would accommodate it, because that is the | :23:35. | :23:39. | |
way we are and always have been, but with deep regret. Could Scotland | :23:40. | :23:44. | |
stay in, but with increased powers, devo max, actually be politically | :23:45. | :23:50. | |
more traumatic than if it went? It would be completely intolerable to | :23:51. | :23:53. | |
imagine that decisions that were taken in the UK parliament would be | :23:54. | :23:58. | |
decided by Labour MPs in particular, let alone Scottish National 's, who | :23:59. | :24:04. | |
were actually getting more and more devo max. I think we would get to a | :24:05. | :24:09. | |
breaking point on that. Scotland's future will be a question for | :24:10. | :24:14. | |
Scotland. But whatever the answer, the UK may well feel like a very | :24:15. | :24:18. | |
different place afterwards. We're joined now by the chairman of the | :24:19. | :24:21. | |
English Democrats, Robin Tilbrook, and by the Conservative MP, Iain | :24:22. | :24:24. | |
Stewart, who was born and raised in Scotland. The Conservatives have the | :24:25. | :24:29. | |
grand total of one MP in Scotland, Labour have 41. At the last | :24:30. | :24:34. | |
election, David Cameron would have gained an overall majority if | :24:35. | :24:38. | |
Scotland's votes had been excluded. What's not to like for Scottish | :24:39. | :24:44. | |
independence for the Conservatives? My nationality is British. Even | :24:45. | :24:47. | |
though there would be a short-term electoral gain for my party, I do | :24:48. | :24:52. | |
not support the break-up of the United Kingdom, my country. That is | :24:53. | :24:56. | |
far more important than the result of any one particular election. It | :24:57. | :25:01. | |
could be, as some political pundits have predicted, that it could lead | :25:02. | :25:05. | |
to one-party rule if there was Scotland independent and the rest of | :25:06. | :25:10. | |
the UK remaining? I don't think you can extrapolate that. If you look at | :25:11. | :25:15. | |
the majorities that Tony Blair had, he had a majority of the seats in | :25:16. | :25:19. | |
England as well as the UK as a whole. It's very dangerous to | :25:20. | :25:23. | |
extrapolate on one election result. But some of your conservative | :25:24. | :25:27. | |
colleagues must feel that way, knowing they would be much more | :25:28. | :25:32. | |
likely to have electoral victory, a significant majority without | :25:33. | :25:36. | |
Scotland. We are the Conservative and Unionist party. That Unionist | :25:37. | :25:41. | |
strand is very deep in what I and most of my colleagues believe. I | :25:42. | :25:46. | |
would be distraught if my country was broken up. I'm British and I | :25:47. | :25:51. | |
don't want that to happen. Do you think the Unionists are making | :25:52. | :25:55. | |
enough of the emotional connection with Scotland, with the UK remaining | :25:56. | :26:00. | |
as it is? We had a good debate in the Commons last Thursday. I made | :26:01. | :26:06. | |
the point that initially Scotland and England coming together was like | :26:07. | :26:10. | |
a marriage, two families coming together. But over the centuries, we | :26:11. | :26:15. | |
actually built something that is different. You build a shared | :26:16. | :26:19. | |
identity and heritage. That is what is so dear to me and many of my | :26:20. | :26:23. | |
colleagues. That's a very emotional plea for the union to stay together. | :26:24. | :26:30. | |
How do you argue against that? That is quite a minor authority opinion | :26:31. | :26:35. | |
in England generally, I think. The English are becoming more self | :26:36. | :26:39. | |
identifying as being English, as we see from the 2011 Census results. | :26:40. | :26:43. | |
Over 60% of the population in England, more than 32 million | :26:44. | :26:48. | |
people, said in the way they answered that that they were English | :26:49. | :26:53. | |
only and not British. A further 10% said they were English and British. | :26:54. | :26:58. | |
Probably only about another 5% of people who were English said that | :26:59. | :27:04. | |
they were just British. Wouldn't it make England more parochial, a | :27:05. | :27:09. | |
lesser country without Scotland? It's not so much that. The issue is, | :27:10. | :27:14. | |
should nations govern themselves? As far as we are concerned, and as far | :27:15. | :27:19. | |
as the SNP are concerned, nations should govern themselves. In your | :27:20. | :27:25. | |
mind, does England prop up Scotland financially and economically? | :27:26. | :27:30. | |
Certainly. The 2009 report from the House of Lords suggested that was | :27:31. | :27:34. | |
the case. How do you argue against that? If you are looking at the | :27:35. | :27:39. | |
amount of public spending per head, it's about ?1200 higher per head in | :27:40. | :27:44. | |
Scotland, how do you argue that to someone in England who says, let | :27:45. | :27:48. | |
Scotland go? A number of years ago I was a very dry book on this | :27:49. | :27:52. | |
subject. No one knows the true financial relationship between the | :27:53. | :27:56. | |
constituent parts of the UK because we've never allocated exactly tax | :27:57. | :28:03. | |
receipts or spending. People can make assertions or assumptions, but | :28:04. | :28:07. | |
no one actually knows the true relationship. That is something we | :28:08. | :28:12. | |
would need to find out first. So you don't think the English taxpayer | :28:13. | :28:18. | |
props up the Scottish... I'm saying there is no hard and fast evidence | :28:19. | :28:21. | |
to prove the case one way or the other. How would you apportion | :28:22. | :28:25. | |
receipts from the North Sea, for example? There are different schools | :28:26. | :28:30. | |
of thought about how you could do that. Does England prop up Scotland | :28:31. | :28:44. | |
or are you a net contributor? You can argue your case for or against | :28:45. | :28:46. | |
independent, but Scotland is not subsidised. Public spending in | :28:47. | :28:48. | |
Scotland is ?1200 per head higher than the rest of the UK. But tax | :28:49. | :28:51. | |
generated in Scotland in ?1700 per head higher. We contribute more in | :28:52. | :28:54. | |
terms of percentage terms than we get back on spending. Scotland is | :28:55. | :29:00. | |
not subsidised. We pay our way. If Scotland was to be independent, our | :29:01. | :29:04. | |
deficit would be a smaller share of our GDP than the rest of the UK. | :29:05. | :29:09. | |
Absolutely it is not the case that Scotland is propped up in any way. | :29:10. | :29:14. | |
To continue that line of argument, you accept that an independent | :29:15. | :29:17. | |
Scotland would leave the rest of the UK worse off? We've just had a | :29:18. | :29:22. | |
discussion about currency union. I think it's right that we cooperate | :29:23. | :29:26. | |
in many respects, but I believe Scotland should access its own | :29:27. | :29:30. | |
resources, stand on its own feet and take its own decisions. And it would | :29:31. | :29:37. | |
leave the rest of the UK worse off. You are arguing that an independent | :29:38. | :29:42. | |
Scotland would leave the rest of the UK worse off. England is perfectly | :29:43. | :29:47. | |
capable of standing on its own two feet as an independent country. If I | :29:48. | :29:51. | |
can go back to the social union, because some of the links your film | :29:52. | :29:56. | |
talked about, the real bonds that exist between Scotland, England and | :29:57. | :30:00. | |
other parts of the UK, these are strong, they will endure. I've got | :30:01. | :30:04. | |
family in England. These are not things that depend on constitutions | :30:05. | :30:08. | |
or how Scotland is governed, these are about people inhabiting the same | :30:09. | :30:13. | |
island. Do you agree with that? I do think we would still be friends. I | :30:14. | :30:17. | |
would take an issue with one point. The idea of the rest of the UK. It's | :30:18. | :30:24. | |
my view, as a lawyer, that if Scotland goes you've got a repeal of | :30:25. | :30:29. | |
the act of union, and that means you haven't got a continuing UK. There | :30:30. | :30:33. | |
might be some shenanigans in Parliament... What about Wales and | :30:34. | :30:38. | |
Northern Ireland? Wales is a slightly different case. The union | :30:39. | :30:43. | |
with Northern Ireland depends on the union of 1801 originally. That was | :30:44. | :30:48. | |
not with England, that was with the United Kingdom of Great Britain. A | :30:49. | :30:51. | |
Great Britain would cease to exist with Scotland going. All Nicola | :30:52. | :31:00. | |
Sturgeon said the bonds would still be there. Why would you be so | :31:01. | :31:03. | |
distraught if those connections are still there? I do not want dual | :31:04. | :31:10. | |
citizenship, I want my country to stay together. Why take this | :31:11. | :31:18. | |
gamble? Why this one-way ticket? We have something that has insured and | :31:19. | :31:22. | |
worked to stop together, I strongly believe that the strength is better | :31:23. | :31:31. | |
than the individual strength. I do not think the Westminster system of | :31:32. | :31:36. | |
government is working for Scotland. We have a Tory government that most | :31:37. | :31:40. | |
people in Scotland do not one. But you want to keep the Crown? You want | :31:41. | :31:50. | |
to retain so much of it. In all countries of the modern world you | :31:51. | :31:55. | |
cooperate, that makes sense. Why should they implement policies like | :31:56. | :31:58. | |
the Bedroom Tax that we do not agree with? It would be no difference to | :31:59. | :32:06. | |
Canada or Australia. They have the Queen, why should we not have the | :32:07. | :32:15. | |
Queen as well? Thank you. Mark Carney, he's the governor of the | :32:16. | :32:17. | |
Bank of England, delivered the bank's latest inflation report | :32:18. | :32:21. | |
yesterday. You might have missed it because of all the talk about the | :32:22. | :32:24. | |
weather. It contained some pretty good news because the bank raised | :32:25. | :32:28. | |
its estimate of growth this year to 3.4%. That's what's known as a | :32:29. | :32:32. | |
bullish forecast, meaning it's more optimistic than most other | :32:33. | :32:45. | |
economists. The bank is not always right. The bad news is, he says the | :32:46. | :32:50. | |
recovery can't go on as it is. Here's what he had to say: the | :32:51. | :32:57. | |
recovery has gained momentum. Output is growing at its fastest rate since | :32:58. | :33:02. | |
2007, jobs are being created at the fastest pace since records began, | :33:03. | :33:09. | |
and the inflation rate is back at 2%. The recovery is neither balanced | :33:10. | :33:16. | |
or sustainable. A few quarters of growth are a good start but they are | :33:17. | :33:21. | |
not sufficient for sustained momentum. Activity is still below | :33:22. | :33:29. | |
precrisis level. The household saving rate is likely to fall | :33:30. | :33:33. | |
further. The pick-up in business investment is still added earliest | :33:34. | :33:38. | |
stages. The global outlook, although improved, contains downsides in | :33:39. | :33:50. | |
emerging recovery. And we're joined now by two economists who got on so | :33:51. | :33:54. | |
well last time they were on the show, one of them accused the other | :33:55. | :33:58. | |
of trying to nail a blancmange to a wall. I think that means they didn't | :33:59. | :34:01. | |
agree. It's the political economist Will Hutton and the Telegraph | :34:02. | :34:08. | |
columnist Liam Halligan. You both think the recovery is unbalanced at | :34:09. | :34:15. | |
the moment, right? Yes. Yes. Aren't most recovery is unbalanced in early | :34:16. | :34:19. | |
days? The question of whether they are sustainable is if they do become | :34:20. | :34:26. | |
balanced. It is true to say that most recoveries are consumer led. To | :34:27. | :34:32. | |
begin with. The extent of the balance is completely marked in this | :34:33. | :34:36. | |
case. The last GDP figures in the UK showed that the vast majority of | :34:37. | :34:44. | |
growth was in business services and financial services. There is a | :34:45. | :34:46. | |
bubble in that sector. Meanwhile, the construct than -- construction | :34:47. | :34:55. | |
sector was contract thing. We have had a weaker sterling in the last | :34:56. | :35:00. | |
three or four years and huge trade deficits. We are not making stuff, | :35:01. | :35:06. | |
selling it to the rest of the world. We have always had a huge | :35:07. | :35:11. | |
trade deficits. We have always had. If it is unbalanced, what needs to | :35:12. | :35:19. | |
be done? First of all, I think that most institutions that support the | :35:20. | :35:26. | |
kind of growth that is needed, you were sitting with Nicola Sturgeon | :35:27. | :35:31. | |
and I am a supporter of creating a stakeholder capitalist society, we | :35:32. | :35:38. | |
need banks that are more enterprise, we need an innovation system that is | :35:39. | :35:41. | |
more supportive of companies that take risks at the frontier. This | :35:42. | :35:51. | |
recovery will run out quickly! We had an evaluation of the pound that | :35:52. | :35:55. | |
is the second-largest in the last 100 years with negligible uptake in | :35:56. | :36:01. | |
our exports. The biggest market is on its back in Europe! In growing | :36:02. | :36:07. | |
markets we are doing badly. We have an industrial structure, and that is | :36:08. | :36:16. | |
one area which we are unbalanced within. Another area with low | :36:17. | :36:26. | |
productivity, we have a public sector that is intensely squeezed. | :36:27. | :36:30. | |
We have a desperately poor infrastructure. The week of flood | :36:31. | :36:36. | |
defences are tiny part of that. All of that needs attention. What would | :36:37. | :36:46. | |
you do? The consensus looms. I would focus on the banking sector, Andrew. | :36:47. | :36:50. | |
I have been writing about this for many years and we are still in a | :36:51. | :36:52. | |
situation where investment is still at its lowest since the early 1950s. | :36:53. | :37:01. | |
That is largely because a lot of the businesses are worried about another | :37:02. | :37:06. | |
collapse. That is what everybody is talking about. The bank says | :37:07. | :37:10. | |
business investment is going to rise this year. It is at a desperately | :37:11. | :37:16. | |
low level. Business investment is 8% lower than where it was precrisis. | :37:17. | :37:24. | |
Yes, but that is a start. The banking sector is not capable of | :37:25. | :37:26. | |
providing the capital to these businesses because they are massive | :37:27. | :37:32. | |
liabilities. When did you tell us the British economy would you be | :37:33. | :37:44. | |
growing by? Unemployment is hurtling below 17%. I was writing in 2012 | :37:45. | :37:50. | |
that we would get a recovery of two or 3% in 12 months' time. I have | :37:51. | :37:54. | |
always said that unless the banking sector is cleaned up... RBS has | :37:55. | :38:00. | |
provisioned another massive 8 billion. Barclays have given a big | :38:01. | :38:07. | |
chunk away in bonuses. The banking sector is a drag on growth rather | :38:08. | :38:11. | |
than an engine on growth. When did you tell us that the economy was | :38:12. | :38:18. | |
going to do so well? I said that I thought growth was going to be 3% or | :38:19. | :38:23. | |
more in 2013. I did! I have been saying that for some months. I have | :38:24. | :38:31. | |
always said that the question is what happens after the snap back. My | :38:32. | :38:39. | |
argument is was that we would get driven back by consumption to where | :38:40. | :38:44. | |
we were, but over and above the points I raised earlier, I think | :38:45. | :38:49. | |
inequality is a huge issue. Inequality between London and | :38:50. | :38:53. | |
Scotland. Inequality between the top 1% and the rest. You cannot have it | :38:54. | :39:02. | |
both ways. The gap between London and the rest of the country | :39:03. | :39:05. | |
everywhere is huge. That is because London almost does not belong to | :39:06. | :39:13. | |
Britain any more. The inequality between London and the rest of the | :39:14. | :39:18. | |
country is one of the highest. No other countries have a London. There | :39:19. | :39:24. | |
is a Berlin, there is a Milan. London is a problem. But it is a | :39:25. | :39:33. | |
success! It is a problem and the strength! It is realistic to assume | :39:34. | :39:39. | |
that we can never rebalance the economy on the successes we have | :39:40. | :39:44. | |
had? We cannot do it with banking or consumption. The trouble is that | :39:45. | :39:54. | |
having an economy that is so unbalanced represents a systemic | :39:55. | :39:59. | |
threat to the system. That is what Mark Carney things as well. | :40:00. | :40:08. | |
Actually, there was a lot of sleight of hand. Viewers want to know about | :40:09. | :40:15. | |
interest rates. For Mark Carney to go from an unemployment target to | :40:16. | :40:21. | |
spare capacity target... That is a really sticky subject. No one can | :40:22. | :40:28. | |
look at the assumptions on this. Mark Carney said that in the future | :40:29. | :40:33. | |
interest rates are going to be materially lower than the 5% that we | :40:34. | :40:40. | |
had before. No central banker can decide this. The Bank of England's | :40:41. | :40:47. | |
base rate is 0.5%. That is not what they are paying on their mortgage. | :40:48. | :40:54. | |
OK, we are running out of time. We have no more time for lectures! Do | :40:55. | :41:06. | |
you fancy these two as economic advisers? Absolutely! I would take | :41:07. | :41:12. | |
both of them! You would? ! After you have heard them? Why would you do | :41:13. | :41:19. | |
that? ! The point about inequality is important. Bank lending and | :41:20. | :41:25. | |
investment are important. We have a strong economy in Scotland but we | :41:26. | :41:30. | |
will discuss terms later on. I have enjoyed listening to them. I am on a | :41:31. | :41:36. | |
commission here! We have run out of time, sadly. Now. I was born in | :41:37. | :41:47. | |
November which explains why I've climbed the greasy pole to the top | :41:48. | :41:57. | |
of the Daily Politics. What year? ! Thank you! Well, nearly to the top. | :41:58. | :42:07. | |
But for children born in the summer there's strong evidence to show | :42:08. | :42:10. | |
they'll perform less well than their classmates. And the gap persists all | :42:11. | :42:13. | |
the way through to university and beyond. The Liberal Democrat MP | :42:14. | :42:16. | |
Annette Brooke has been highlighting the problem, here's her film. Hello, | :42:17. | :42:30. | |
I was born in September. Hello, I was born in October. My name is | :42:31. | :42:44. | |
Celia and I was born in August. These children are getting a good | :42:45. | :42:47. | |
start to their education at nursery school, but when should a child | :42:48. | :42:53. | |
begin their primary education? Well, local authorities provide a | :42:54. | :43:00. | |
full-time place for all four-year-olds in September after | :43:01. | :43:05. | |
their birthday. A child born on the 31st of August 2013 will start in | :43:06. | :43:15. | |
the same year as one born on the 1st of September a year later. Some are | :43:16. | :43:23. | |
born child may not be as ready as its older counterparts to start | :43:24. | :43:28. | |
school at such an early age. This can result in long-term damage to | :43:29. | :43:33. | |
educational achievement. The statutory school starting age is | :43:34. | :43:38. | |
five years old and a parent can choose not to send their child to | :43:39. | :43:42. | |
school until the term in which their child is five. Local authorities are | :43:43. | :43:49. | |
not choosing to start children in reception. A recent study shows that | :43:50. | :43:56. | |
compared to children born in September, a child born in August is | :43:57. | :44:03. | |
6.4% less likely to achieve five GCSEs at grades a to C. It is | :44:04. | :44:14. | |
staggering just how long-term the Fx seem to be. I welcome the recent | :44:15. | :44:24. | |
report published by the Department for Education. In particular, there | :44:25. | :44:32. | |
is no statutory barrier for children being admitted outside their year | :44:33. | :44:35. | |
group and flexibilities exist for parents to start four-year-old | :44:36. | :44:40. | |
children later in the year. Whilst then may not be a statutory barrier | :44:41. | :44:46. | |
for a child being admitted to school in a particularly year group, it is | :44:47. | :44:53. | |
not a statutory right. The Department for Education has got to | :44:54. | :45:01. | |
think again on this issue. How would you change school admissions to take | :45:02. | :45:06. | |
account of this? All we need is flexibility. We were pleased with | :45:07. | :45:11. | |
the advice that the Department for Education published in July, which | :45:12. | :45:18. | |
clearly indicates there is no barrier to a child starting in a | :45:19. | :45:22. | |
different year group. What we are really talking about is a summer | :45:23. | :45:26. | |
born child, rather than starting in reception just after they are four, | :45:27. | :45:31. | |
that they would actually be allowed to start in reception just after | :45:32. | :45:36. | |
they are five. At the moment, if parents exercise their choice not to | :45:37. | :45:41. | |
start their child until the compulsory school starting age, | :45:42. | :45:44. | |
which is the term in which they are five, they actually are almost being | :45:45. | :45:48. | |
forced to go into year one. If you've chosen, do you hold your | :45:49. | :45:54. | |
child back because you think they are not quite ready for school, and | :45:55. | :45:59. | |
that's a perfectly logical thing to do, then parents argue, why should | :46:00. | :46:03. | |
they miss out on reception year? There has to be a cut-off between | :46:04. | :46:09. | |
years. How would that pity really change? There will always be | :46:10. | :46:13. | |
children, whichever way you decide to do it, who will fall close to the | :46:14. | :46:18. | |
cut-off and could be disadvantaged in that sense. Absolutely. Our | :46:19. | :46:22. | |
school starting age was effectively changed when all local authorities | :46:23. | :46:30. | |
were required to provide a place for all four-year-olds in the September | :46:31. | :46:35. | |
from the birthday. That was useful because it addressed one of the | :46:36. | :46:40. | |
issues, that you were even in up the length of schooling. But you have | :46:41. | :46:44. | |
got some children who are not ready to start at that age. If you take | :46:45. | :46:48. | |
the example of a premature baby, a seven-month baby born on the 31st of | :46:49. | :46:54. | |
August, then it's pretty clear they are not ready to start school the | :46:55. | :46:57. | |
September after their fourth birthday. Then maybe parents who | :46:58. | :47:01. | |
find it difficult to start their child at school to terms after | :47:02. | :47:05. | |
everybody else and still be in that same year, and whether that would | :47:06. | :47:08. | |
iron out the disadvantage in subsequent years, we don't know | :47:09. | :47:12. | |
that. But what about the children already in the system? If the | :47:13. | :47:16. | |
figures are showing they are at a disadvantage, what can you do to | :47:17. | :47:23. | |
help them improve during their school years? With some of the | :47:24. | :47:25. | |
excellent teachers we've got, I would hope you've got the right | :47:26. | :47:28. | |
approach in our reception year. But there are examples across the | :47:29. | :47:32. | |
country where a summer born child might be classified as having | :47:33. | :47:34. | |
special educational needs when they are not. In a good reception class | :47:35. | :47:42. | |
you will have teachers looking at each individual child was level of | :47:43. | :47:46. | |
development and making sure that the activities are appropriate. A summer | :47:47. | :47:49. | |
born may be more developed than an older child. It is really important | :47:50. | :47:56. | |
to have a child centred approach. That is why the parents, and there | :47:57. | :48:00. | |
are not large numbers of them because it's a big decision to hold | :48:01. | :48:04. | |
your child back for a year, they are doing it because they don't want | :48:05. | :48:09. | |
their child damaged and failed at school age four. What is the | :48:10. | :48:15. | |
situation in Scotland? Reception year doesn't really apply in | :48:16. | :48:20. | |
Scotland. You have a primary one in Scotland in the August after their | :48:21. | :48:23. | |
fifth birthday. But if they turn fight between August and February, | :48:24. | :48:27. | |
there is the option of starting in August while they are still four, | :48:28. | :48:31. | |
but it's not compulsory. Parents can choose to wait until the following | :48:32. | :48:37. | |
August. Has that worked better? I'm really interested in this research. | :48:38. | :48:42. | |
There is no plans to change that system in Scotland at the moment | :48:43. | :48:44. | |
because we think that flexibility works well. There's a general issue | :48:45. | :48:51. | |
we are focused on, in trying to make sure we are raising attainment and | :48:52. | :48:54. | |
closing the attainment gap between the best and worst performing. We | :48:55. | :48:58. | |
would all be well advised to pay attention to research that. Gordon | :48:59. | :49:03. | |
Brown is speaking in the Commons today. It's not often we say that | :49:04. | :49:08. | |
any more. He's going to be making a short speech arguing for more | :49:09. | :49:11. | |
support for the schooling of Syrian refugees. Since losing the election | :49:12. | :49:14. | |
in 2010, he's remained an MP but he's been criticised for being | :49:15. | :49:17. | |
almost invisible at Westminster. So what's he been up to? The former | :49:18. | :49:20. | |
Prime Minister has taken part in 127 votes out of 980 since he left | :49:21. | :49:24. | |
Number Ten, that's 13%, well below the average amongst MPs. He's spoken | :49:25. | :49:30. | |
in seven debates, raising the proposed closure of Remploy | :49:31. | :49:33. | |
factories in his constituency and Rupert Murdoch's bid to take full | :49:34. | :49:41. | |
control of BskyB. So what's he been doing instead? Well, he's the UN's | :49:42. | :49:48. | |
special envoy for global education, a role that involved a fair bit of | :49:49. | :49:52. | |
globetrotting. He earns money for his speaking engagements. Latest | :49:53. | :49:55. | |
figures show he declared payments totalling ?1.37 million. His office | :49:56. | :50:01. | |
said that all of the money went directly to charity or to fund | :50:02. | :50:10. | |
charitable work. We are not quite sure what then happens to the money | :50:11. | :50:13. | |
after that and what salaries are paid. And of course he's paid a | :50:14. | :50:18. | |
salary as an MP of just over ?65,000. We're joined now by a brace | :50:19. | :50:24. | |
of bloggers. Mark Ferguson, from Labour List, and Harry Cole, from | :50:25. | :50:32. | |
Guido Fawkes. Does it matter how often he speaks in the house? As | :50:33. | :50:36. | |
Prime Minister, he wasn't really in many votes in the house either. Is | :50:37. | :50:41. | |
it really a proper way of judging his contribution? I think the people | :50:42. | :50:46. | |
of Kirkaldy deserves some reputable station. -- representation. He has | :50:47. | :50:53. | |
become the noble cause of Syrian refugees, but it hammers home the | :50:54. | :50:57. | |
point there are 60,000 people in Scotland who don't have an MP. He is | :50:58. | :51:03. | |
on a smattering of written answers and teapots in occasionally. He is | :51:04. | :51:06. | |
collecting his salary, we are paying him to be an MP. Since 2010, he's | :51:07. | :51:16. | |
earned 3.6 million. Only ?900,000 of that has gone to charity, he's | :51:17. | :51:21. | |
declared that on his website. The rest has gone to this mythical thing | :51:22. | :51:23. | |
called the | :51:24. | 0:44:29 |