06/06/2014 Daily Politics


06/06/2014

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Afternoon folks, welcome to the Daily Politics.

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David Cameron's breathing a sigh of relief this morning.

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The Tory party held onto the safe seat of Newark last night,

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UKIP did well, pushing Labour into third place.

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The Liberal Democrats came a distant 6th.

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Emotional scenes here and in France as thousands gather to mark

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Better together - President Obama wades into the campaign

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And as Michael Gove and Teresa May fight it out over extremism

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in our schools we ask what should be done about it.

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And with us for the duration, in a fitting tribute to

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the 70th anniversary of D-Day we have our very own entente cordiale.

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The UK Correspondent from France 24, Benedicte Paviot,

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and from the New Statesman, although he's about to jump ship

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First to D-Day, because ceremonies are taking place in Normandy today

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to mark the 70th anniversary of the D-Day landings, the Allied mission

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that changed the course of the Second World War, leading to the

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With a little help, of course, from the Russians.

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Nearly 20 world leaders, including the Queen and President Obama, and

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hundreds of veterans will attend the main commemoration on Sword Beach,

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The day's events began at midnight with a vigil at the Pegasus Bridge,

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the strategic crossing captured by airborne British forces

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before the assault on the French coast on the 6th June 1944.

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In the last hour there's been a ceremony at the

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Commonwealth War Graves Commission Cemetery in Bayeux.

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The Commonwealth forces were deeply involved in D-Day along with the

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David Cameron was there - here's what he had to say.

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It was incredibly moving. I was at the spot where one of the gliders

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landed to take the bridge. There was a sense of history but also for my

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generation, a sense of humility. We have never had to do anything like

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what our grandfathers' generation did. It is awe-inspiring and it

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gives you a sense of humility. Above all it gives you a sense of

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extraordinary gratitude for what these amazingly brave people dead.

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David Cameron in Normandy. This is a very important day for France as

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well as for Britain and the other allies. Is it bittersweet for the

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French in the sense that it was the beginning of their liberation but

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also a reminder that they had been under Nazi occupation for four

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years? It has been bittersweet, but I do not think it's bittersweet

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really now. I think that it's deeply moving and I sense, since I am

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reporting on it from the British side at the moment, a real sense of

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gratitude. A sense of gratitude and respect and honour for the Queen,

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who is of course from that generation. She was 18 years old.

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There is a deep affection in France for the Queen herself, a great

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interest, as you well know, for the British royal family. There is deep

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gratitude, deep respect and the highest honours are being awarded.

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She is described as being awarded the biggest unrivalled respect from

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the French president, being accompanied everywhere by the

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President will stop I saw that yesterday at the Arc de Triomphe.

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The French threw everything at it, didn't they? I thought that the God

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Save The Queen was beautifully sung. Again, it reminds us of our common

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past. There was a huge gratitude to the Allied troops, all that

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planning, so money lives lost, so many people throwing themselves on

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embarking on is that were hardly see where the sometimes. They were

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18-year-old who sacrificed their lives, who were maimed for life, who

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have come back and not spoken about what they endured. We have heard

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someone say that the heroes are the ones who are dead. Some of those

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heroes are today on French beaches and me that remind our generation

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not to go traipsing into war and to try and avert it in every way.

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Actually, the finding of the common market and the EU really is built on

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that piece and that prosperity. We do not have much prosperity at the

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moment. The Prime Minister is right, it puts what we do in

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perspective. Last night we were doing an all-night by-election

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results programme, and we thought it was quite important to do it for

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public service. 70 years ago, our fathers and grandfathers were

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throwing their lives onto the beaches of Normandy not knowing what

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was going to happen. Exactly. I think the Prime Minister was right

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and he is good at expressing those things that big national moments,

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the sense that when we talk about political solidarity, being in it

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together, it is a different moral sphere to what we are talking about

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in relation to the D-Day landings. Ultimately, yes, the Newark

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by-election, the argy-bargy about deficit reduction, it is a slightly

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different issue. The other thing that struck me watching it, it is a

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good reminder that it does not get enough coverage but at the

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ceremonies this morning the New Zealanders, the Australians, the

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Canadians were there as well. The Canadians played a huge part in

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this. There is a perception, maybe because of modern media, that the

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date was largely an American venture and that the British were tagging

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along. -- that D-Day. The British Commonwealth provided and not more

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troops than the Americans on the day, they provided nearly all the

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air cover and most of the ships. It is the way popular culture absorbs a

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history, the way Hollywood describes it. The news gets the facts right.

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You have just done that. I would like to say that the warm or eels

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throughout villages in France, I am sure you have seen them, they are

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such a potent reminder in people's daily lives. -- the war memorials

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throughout villages. You see entire families' names. There has been a

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campaign in the UK for the upkeep of these and I would be a big supporter

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of that. It would be a good time to start. We have got to move on. There

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is a memorial in Normandy. The inscription is in Latin and it is

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fascinating and it says, in the land of William the Conqueror, the

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conquered came to liberate the Conqueror. Other words, having been

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conquered by the Normans intense excuse it is the British came back

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to liberate Normandy. It is interesting and they put it in

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Latin. Now, after

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a very long night we finally got the result of the Newark by-election

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at around 4am this morning. I had matchsticks in my eyes

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by then. So let?s have a look

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at those results in detail. The Conservatives held

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the seat with their candidate Robert Jenrick winning over 17,000

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votes. This represents 45% of the vote but

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their share declined by almost 9%. This was because

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UKIP's Rodger Helmer did so well. Coming second,

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he received just over 10,000 votes. Which translates to almost 26%

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of the vote share. It is way up on what they got in

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2010. Michael Payne for Labour came

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third with over 6,000 votes. The independent candidate

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Paul Baggaley The Greens were fifth,

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receiving just over 1,000 votes. The Liberal Democrat candidate

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David Watts was sixth with 1,004 votes,

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and 2.6% share of the vote. This represents one

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of their worst performances It is their ninth lost deposit in

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this ballot. Here's Robert Jenrick,

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the new MP for Newark speaking after I am grateful for all the support,

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especially locally. People saw this as a Westminster election. There was

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a big election two weeks ago for the European Parliament but people in

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Europe need the choice, they wanted a long-term member of Parliament

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campaigning on local issues, someone who will live here and be a

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constituency MP, and they are able to make the distinction between the

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European elections and the honeymoon period following that and they have

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chosen a strong voice in Parliament. That was the new MP for Newark. What

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is it like, the politics of the morning after the night before? It

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is business as usual and I say that because the great fabled earthquake

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has not happened. Let's be honest, this was always Terra Firma

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politically speaking for the Tory party. It was their 44th safest seat

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and they had a stomping majority of around 16,000, 25,000 UKIP at the

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last general election and on top of that, they fought a highly

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organised, highly disciplined, highly motivated campaign. Mr

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Cameron was here four times. Tory MPs were told to to come here at

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least three times and campaign and that simply overwhelmed the rather

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ramshackle people's army who did not have that level of organisation, the

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on the ground strength that you really need to take on the Tory

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party in this sort of seed. That said, yes, they did take chunks out

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of the Tory party. What strikes me about the Newark result is that it

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reminds us of a basic political truth, that it is extraordinarily

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difficult for any small party to win under our first past the post

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electoral system. While it is fine and dandy for UKIP to pile up votes

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in European elections, when it comes to first past the post it is a

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different ball game entirely and that means a different ball game for

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the general election as well. What is the biggest story this

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morning - Labour coming third and losing its share of the vote or the

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Lib Dems coming sex and being close to wipe down again?

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-- coming sex. -- coming number six. For the Lib Dems, this is their

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worst by-election results in England since the war. This from the party

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who used to be the by-election supremos. Now, absolutely

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catastrophic result following dismal results in the European elections

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and dire results in the local elections. You sense if you are a

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Liberal Democrat you have to be thinking, when on earth do we pull

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out of this nosedive? I am not sure anyone has an answer. What would be

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interesting is if this result further galvanises local parties to

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hold these emergency meetings to decide whether they want Nick Clegg

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to remain as leader. Bring me back some of those nice

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carrots behind you! Now, we did ask the Labour party

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for an interview this morning. They declined to take part,

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as did the Liberal Democrats. Instead we have the Liberal Democrat

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blogger, Stephen Tall. Also joining me is the Conservative

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Party Chairman, Grant Shapps and in a moment, after he's swapped places

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with Norman, Roger Helmer, UKIP's Gentlemen, welcome to you all. Grant

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Shapps, your new candidate thanked everybody for his rectory except

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that he did not thank the kitchen sink that you threw at the

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constituency to make him win. Of course we went there and we wanted

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to win. We asked MPs and candidates and everyone else to go and help. I

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do not think that is what won it. We have the arguments on our side. We

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have got our long-term plan for this country. It has started to work. Are

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you on a bonus if you go over 30 seconds? In the end, we managed to

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present the plans to people. People have voted on the basis of that

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plan, whether we want to have the rest of the recovery in this country

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according to the way... So if you hadn't thrown the kitchen sink at it

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you still would have done it? You need to have people on the ground in

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order to let the voters who have been asked for their support know

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what party stands for and what the plan would be. I am not going to

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pretend that we did not ask people. We had a lot of volunteers. Some of

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the stuff is a little bit strange to criticise you for a little bit too

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hard, only the British would do that, but what I wondered in this

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by-election is, you still did not do well enough to indicate that you

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could get an overall majority at the next election. I would say don't

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read too much into by-elections, and it doesn't mean we will win the next

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general election, but it's the first time in 25 years in power, it's the

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first Army managed to hold -- the first Army managed to hold the seat.

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I think that is 17 by-elections where we have failed. At the end of

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the day, they are different, general elections have lower turnouts.

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Labour had quite good majorities. Here is an interesting statistic,

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when we were the asp and government, we won in Crewe and

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Norwich North -- Asper and government -- aspirant government.

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It says a lot about Ed Miliband that he is not prepared and ready to

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govern, and the fact they are not even on your programme today. We can

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go to Roger in Newark. Thanks for joining us. You spoke to me in the

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early hours, so kind of you to get up and be with us now just after

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noon. My pleasure. Are you disappointed you did not do better?

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Of course we hoped to win, and we campaigned to win, and winning is

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better than coming second, but if you look at the figures we increased

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our share of the vote sixfold and halved the Conservative majority.

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This is real progress. What I would particularly point out that five or

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ten years ago we would do very well in European elections but we go back

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to ground zero, four or 5%, in Westminster elections. This time we

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got 33% in the European election and we delivered nearly 26% in this

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by-election. It shows that a large proportion of the people voting UKIP

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in European elections are prepared to go on and vote UKIP in

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Westminster elections as well. But you didn't do as well as you did in

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Eastleigh. There is not a sense of momentum. We got a lower share than

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you did in Eastleigh. We were there or thereabouts in a constituency

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that the Conservative party through the kitchen sink and the whole

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kitchen at. People are saying that Conservative ministers probably have

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a better attendance in Newark than they have in Westminster. Bearing in

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mind that a lot of the people working with the Conservatives in

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Newark are the payroll vote. They have been whipped to come here,

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whereas our activists were volunteers who came because they

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believe in what we are doing and came from all over the country.

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There is another side to the team, teams of volunteers who want to

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volunteer to get a better future for the country. Aren't these the old

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Conservatives? There were a lot of young people? Anybody can join the

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team, and it's people who maybe not through the traditional route of

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joining the branch or the committee, joining the party, those people, are

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very involved. Quite a few romances started then? I don't have an

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insight into that. Is this how you plan to increase the number of Tory

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voters? I don't make any apology for wanting to get a crass -- sell a

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message. If you have a long-term economic plan, you have to tell

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people about it. You had to know they were going to throw the kitchen

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sink at it, and we know that UKIP knew that winning was going to be

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tough, and I'm not criticising you for not winning, but you had a 30%

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benchmark and you did not make it. Well, we did OK in the face of what

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was thrown at us. I'm interesting to hear that Grant Schatz is saying

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that we need to sell the message. I'd like to know why the

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Conservative campaign actually pulled out their candidate for the

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last three or four days of the campaign. I sat down with

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journalists from broadcast and print media and people said they could not

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find him. He cancelled an interview on LBC. He refused to do an

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interview with the BBC in the Market Square where I am now, and other

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journalists were saying they had not seen him. I'd like to know what

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happened to him during the last days of the campaign. He was surrounded

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by Conservative minders at all stages. The people we have find it

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quite hard to penetrate that line. He was such an identikit Tory people

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started to call him Robert Generic. Unlike some of the other candidates,

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he had been placed the six months, not just picked for the by-election.

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When we came to produce the by-election material to let people

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know about him we found we had a vast selection of material from all

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of the work had done. He had been at it for months. Right from the

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outset, day one, the interviews, he was out there the whole time. Let me

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bring in Stephen. What is to be done? It's a good question. It's a

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pretty dire result for the party and this is is reaping the whirlwind of

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being in coalition. The Conservatives put in a good result

:20:50.:20:54.

last night and one of the parties that can afford to have a smile on

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their face this morning. They put in a good result are getting the

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benefit. And we are not. It tends to be the leading party in a coalition

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that gets the benefit of stuff going right. They will sweep your side,

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and any credit going will go to them. I think that is the risk. I

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don't think any Liberal Democrat agreeing to it being formed thought

:21:23.:21:25.

it was an easy ride. I don't know if we thought it would be as hard, but

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we knew there was a desk -- a real risk this day would come. Would

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change in the leadership this? This is something people are split on.

:21:36.:21:38.

Within the party, there are people who do think that you can suddenly

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wave a magic wand, Tim -- Nick Clegg is gone, Tim Farren and Vince cable

:21:46.:21:48.

replacement may shoot up in the ratings. I don't think it's likely

:21:49.:21:53.

to happen. Four years of coalition and people are likely to remember

:21:54.:21:57.

that at the general election, and with 11 months ago, hoping that the

:21:58.:22:01.

man at the top switches and you get a new leader magically transforms

:22:02.:22:05.

the position is unlikely. You now have the worst of all words --

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wilds, constant leadership speculation but you won't change the

:22:12.:22:18.

leader. A brave decision by the MPs because by now there would probably

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be revolted any Lib Dem MPs had signalled they want to go, but the

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two likely replacements have stood behind Nick Clegg, not with a

:22:28.:22:31.

knife, but to make sure he stays in place. Without MPs willing to back

:22:32.:22:36.

party members, that 40% who want Nick Clegg to go, that revolt has

:22:37.:22:44.

nowhere to go. The Tories came within 1% of Labour in the local

:22:45.:22:48.

elections. They dropped only 3% in the Euro elections, despite the UKIP

:22:49.:22:51.

insurgency. They comfortably retained Newark. Where is the good

:22:52.:22:57.

news for Labour in this? A very good question. Most Labour people looking

:22:58.:23:01.

at what has happened in the last few weeks should be quite worried about

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this. I can tell you what a Labour Party spokesman would say if she or

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he had come on the programme, that this was never going to be a fertile

:23:11.:23:14.

ground for the Labour Party, this was a contest between the

:23:15.:23:17.

Conservatives and UKIP. We had to keep a hand in it, but this was not

:23:18.:23:22.

a target seat. But ultimately, you take a step back, and as you

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describe, what seen in the last few weeks is that when you have had a

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test that the ballot box and there have been lots of people who maybe

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don't like the government and want to vote against the incumbent

:23:34.:23:36.

parties or the main incumbent party, not enough of them are to Labour as

:23:37.:23:42.

the obvious alternative and this discussion we have had between Grant

:23:43.:23:45.

and Roger, it describes the dynamic in politics where the leader of the

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opposition are not prominent enough. That has to be dangerous for

:23:49.:23:54.

the Labour Party in the year before a general election. I was simply

:23:55.:23:59.

going to say that Vince Cable put himself in a position where if

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somebody had wanted to back him, he couldn't go forward. I don't think

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there is anything there. It is extraordinary what we are

:24:11.:24:13.

witnessing. There are rumblings about all three, if we can call them

:24:14.:24:18.

the main party leaders. I do want to go back to Roger. Briefly, please.

:24:19.:24:24.

Lib Dem MPs are OK, and the question the party has to ask is if the

:24:25.:24:28.

strategy is to hold together a small bunch of MPs to keep Nick Clegg in

:24:29.:24:32.

place, is this a national party any more? Roger Helmer, surely it is

:24:33.:24:40.

fair to say that last night, if there has been a UKIP surge in

:24:41.:24:43.

recent weeks, last night was a bit of a circuit breaker on it. Not at

:24:44.:24:50.

all. As I said earlier on, we used to have a good vote in European

:24:51.:24:53.

elections that collapsed in Westminster elections and now we

:24:54.:24:59.

have a good vote in both, which is mostly holding up in the Westminster

:25:00.:25:02.

elections. That's a very, very good sign for 2015. Roger Helmer, thank

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you for joining us and thanks to our guests in the studio.

:25:08.:25:10.

Although there's just over 100 days until Scotland's referendum,

:25:11.:25:12.

business leaders in neighbouring English regions have warned that

:25:13.:25:15.

uncertainty over the result is delaying vital investment.

:25:16.:25:24.

We teamed up with the Chambers of commerce in the north-east and

:25:25.:25:32.

Cumbria to ask what affect the referendum could have on them if

:25:33.:25:37.

Scotland goes independence. A business Park in Newcastle. Some big

:25:38.:25:41.

firms have come here and jobs have been created. But as you can see,

:25:42.:25:45.

still plenty of empty space. Office developments like this one are

:25:46.:25:51.

trying out for tenants and the jobs that could have come here have gone

:25:52.:25:55.

to Scotland instead. Amazon were considering putting 900 jobs here

:25:56.:25:59.

but they chose to go to Dunfermline in Scotland instead. Grants from

:26:00.:26:03.

Scottish enterprise tipped the balance. Managers hearsay and

:26:04.:26:06.

independent Scotland would be an even fierce competitor. As

:26:07.:26:12.

Edinburgh's neighbour, the nearest one, we will feel it more than

:26:13.:26:19.

most. We need more control over spending and more control over how

:26:20.:26:22.

the offering is perceived to the large occupiers to make sure we can

:26:23.:26:29.

stay competitive. Amongst concerns in the business region in the area

:26:30.:26:39.

is 240 companies in Cumbria and the north-east, who gave their views to

:26:40.:26:43.

the BBC in a questionnaire sent out by the chamber of commerce to its

:26:44.:26:48.

members. 63 of them said that if an independent Scotland were to cut

:26:49.:26:52.

corporation tax, they might consider investing north of the border rather

:26:53.:26:56.

than in this region. But a majority of them, 176, said it wouldn't make

:26:57.:27:00.

any difference to their investment decisions. And that is the case for

:27:01.:27:09.

this Durham firm building a new estate in Kelso in the Scottish

:27:10.:27:12.

Borders. In the last few weeks they bought a Scottish building firm.

:27:13.:27:16.

Whether it is a yes or no in September, they are confident of the

:27:17.:27:20.

future. This is a strategic decision to expand the business. We are

:27:21.:27:25.

employing about 75 people in Scotland, maybe 100 in Cumbria, so

:27:26.:27:30.

what difference should it make? Construction workers across the

:27:31.:27:33.

borders. We have international companies working in the UK, so what

:27:34.:27:37.

is the difference? But the chamber of commerce in the region says a big

:27:38.:27:40.

problem ahead of the referendum is a lack of information. We have heard

:27:41.:27:45.

that businesses are holding back on making some investments because they

:27:46.:27:48.

are waiting to see what the outcome of the referendum is going to be.

:27:49.:27:52.

And that is a disappointing situation. To a certain extent,

:27:53.:27:56.

there is an inevitability about it, but people on both sides of the

:27:57.:27:59.

debate could do more to provide clarity that enables businesses to

:28:00.:28:03.

move forward with confidence on some of those decisions. Whilst most

:28:04.:28:06.

businesses in the region are confident they can punch their

:28:07.:28:09.

weight with an independent Scotland, there are also concerns from some

:28:10.:28:13.

that it could leave yawning gaps in the economy. And we are joined by

:28:14.:28:24.

Nick Brown and by the SNP MP, Stuart Posey in our Dundee studio. I will

:28:25.:28:29.

come to you first. We might be in danger of losing the line. I didn't

:28:30.:28:33.

think the referendum was until the 18th, but we may be cut off in our

:28:34.:28:38.

prime. I want to ask you this. What is your reaction to the president of

:28:39.:28:41.

the USA turning out to be a unionist? I don't think he took part

:28:42.:28:46.

in the North of England business survey either. I am sure he didn't.

:28:47.:28:53.

I think the president chose his words extremely carefully indeed.

:28:54.:28:56.

Whilst it is interesting, it will have little or no bearing on the

:28:57.:29:00.

results on the 18th of September. None at all? That the most important

:29:01.:29:06.

country in the world, our most important country, a country where

:29:07.:29:12.

Scots played a huge part in building their country, 46 of the founding

:29:13.:29:16.

fathers were Ulster Scotch, and the president of that country says it

:29:17.:29:22.

does not matter? He did not say it didn't matter, he chose his words

:29:23.:29:26.

carefully. Let's remember, the United States had a revolution to

:29:27.:29:31.

end London rule, so we need to put across that for the yes campaign on

:29:32.:29:36.

the 18th. I am worried we are going to lose the line, so let's go back

:29:37.:29:41.

to the questionnaire that was done. Would Scottish independence, if you

:29:42.:29:47.

had the power to set your own taxes, we understand would cut

:29:48.:29:51.

corporation tax, cut advanced passenger duty at the airports, that

:29:52.:29:55.

would affect the North of England, wouldn't it? The key thing about the

:29:56.:30:00.

survey is that most businesses said investment decisions were unchanged,

:30:01.:30:03.

most want to stay in the North of England but others will look at

:30:04.:30:06.

investment opportunities that would benefit Scotland and the businesses

:30:07.:30:10.

themselves. This ties in to the survey from the Chamber of Commerce.

:30:11.:30:14.

Businesses are not fazed by Scottish independence. The scare stories

:30:15.:30:18.

don't work. Remember Vince Cable said this week that the power of

:30:19.:30:22.

London was harming everywhere else in the UK. We think a strong,

:30:23.:30:26.

successful, prosperous independent Scotland as a counterweight to the

:30:27.:30:30.

gravitational pull from London would be for the benefit of the North of

:30:31.:30:33.

England. Why would it be to the benefit of the North of England?

:30:34.:30:38.

Because the vast majority of the Scottish population and businesses

:30:39.:30:41.

are far, far closer to businesses in the North of England than

:30:42.:30:44.

marketplace in London in the south-east. If we're going to have a

:30:45.:30:47.

counterweight to the gravitational pull of London, it doesn't just

:30:48.:30:51.

benefit Scotland, but also businesses close to Scotland in the

:30:52.:31:16.

North. Let me give you the example of aviation policy. If Alex Salmond

:31:17.:31:20.

cuts the charge, they will be in trouble. There is no problem at all

:31:21.:31:30.

if people use Edinburgh as a hub airport. What is a different

:31:31.:31:34.

Newcastle? There are not huge distances between Newcastle and

:31:35.:31:38.

Edinburgh. It is as easy to fly into Edinburgh as an international hub to

:31:39.:31:42.

go to Newcastle as it is to go to Heathrow to go to Newcastle. That is

:31:43.:31:46.

good news for Glasgow and Edinburgh if we are talking about Newcastle

:31:47.:31:50.

because they are on the same part of the country. It is a logical thing

:31:51.:31:55.

for an independent Scotland to do. But it creates real problems for

:31:56.:31:58.

Newcastle Airport, because it does not get the landing fees. I do not

:31:59.:32:05.

agree with it. I think it brings people to the region. You can be in

:32:06.:32:10.

Newcastle in one hour from Edinburgh. From Heathrow, it can

:32:11.:32:14.

take three or four hours, to be. It will benefit the people in the North

:32:15.:32:18.

of England. Would Scottish independence make life more

:32:19.:32:21.

difficult for the North of England? In the North East in particular

:32:22.:32:25.

there has always been a resentment about the Scots getting certain

:32:26.:32:28.

things and the north-east losing out? There is a certain amount of

:32:29.:32:33.

friendly rivalry but there are friends and neighbours, the people

:32:34.:32:37.

in Scotland. The choices for them and whichever decision make we want

:32:38.:32:45.

to make it work. So they get independence, they vote for

:32:46.:32:49.

independence and in 2016 it happens, the Scottish government

:32:50.:32:54.

cuts corporation tax to 10%, what happens to businesses in Newcastle?

:32:55.:33:00.

I support the union. We already have corporation tax concessions in the

:33:01.:33:04.

government's enterprise zones so it is not unheard of as a policy, but

:33:05.:33:08.

it is not a practical proposition just to reduce a whole series of

:33:09.:33:14.

tax. We still have the revenue that would be necessary to one and

:33:15.:33:19.

independent country. But if the Scottish government cut taxes like

:33:20.:33:28.

corporation tax, if they cut that and cut advance passenger duty, that

:33:29.:33:31.

would make life more difficult for business on Tyneside? There are two

:33:32.:33:35.

Max Abbott proposition is there. There are enterprise zones in the

:33:36.:33:44.

north-east that offer time-limited tax concessions and on the airport

:33:45.:33:50.

duty, it is much more important because Newcastle International

:33:51.:33:52.

airport is a first-rate airport and it is more important as to where you

:33:53.:33:56.

want to travel and what price you pay for the tickets. The effect of

:33:57.:34:01.

passenger duty is marginal. I am sorry, that is not the experience in

:34:02.:34:05.

Ireland at all. When the Irish government cut advance passenger

:34:06.:34:09.

duty people poured out of Northern Ireland to fly out of Dublin and

:34:10.:34:14.

Shannon, so much so that the British judgement had to allow Belfast to

:34:15.:34:19.

cut its advance passenger duty. -- the British government. That

:34:20.:34:23.

pertains to the island of Ireland. I am not sure that the relationship is

:34:24.:34:26.

exactly the same between Scotland and Edinburgh. It seems to be the

:34:27.:34:33.

same. The distance between Dublin and Belfast is about the same as

:34:34.:34:37.

Edinburgh and Newcastle. But you travel from Tyneside to Edinburgh to

:34:38.:34:42.

avoid passenger duty? You would have to pay for the tickets. The

:34:43.:34:49.

passenger duty for a family of four is ?500. But you are making an

:34:50.:34:52.

international flight. How often do ordinary people do that? Once, for

:34:53.:35:00.

their holidays, once a year. We are not full of internationally mobile

:35:01.:35:06.

people. One final question, I am glad we have not lost the line. Why

:35:07.:35:12.

have the polls stop narrowing? Why is the gap between yes and no moving

:35:13.:35:20.

again in favour of no? The IPSA 's Mori poll showed yes was up 4% and

:35:21.:35:27.

no was down 4%. It is the most friendly poll and it was the first

:35:28.:35:34.

time that we have yes above 40%. It is just over 100 days before the

:35:35.:35:38.

referendum. We are aware we need to be. -- where we need to be.

:35:39.:35:45.

Now David Cameron's had a busy few days, what with the D-Day

:35:46.:35:48.

He did however make time to meet Vladimir Putin in Paris for the

:35:49.:35:53.

first direct talks between a western leader and the Russian president

:35:54.:35:56.

Mr Cameron told Mr Putin the current situation in Ukraine was

:35:57.:36:00.

"not acceptable" and urged him to engage with the Ukrainian

:36:01.:36:03.

Earlier, leaders of the G7 nations urged Russia to

:36:04.:36:09.

begin talks with the new leadership in Kiev to end the crisis.

:36:10.:36:14.

Here's Messrs Cameron and Obama speaking last night.

:36:15.:36:22.

First, the status quo is unacceptable. The continuing

:36:23.:36:27.

destabilisation of Eastern Ukraine must stop. Second, there are a set

:36:28.:36:31.

of things that need to happen. President Putin must recognise the

:36:32.:36:36.

legitimate election of President Poroshenko. He must stop arms

:36:37.:36:39.

crossing the border into Ukraine. He must cease Russian support for

:36:40.:36:43.

separatist group. Third, if these things do not happen, sectoral

:36:44.:36:46.

sanctions will follow. The next months will be vital in judging if

:36:47.:36:52.

President Putin has taken these steps and this is what I will urge

:36:53.:36:56.

him to do. If Mr Putin takes two steps it is possible for us to begin

:36:57.:37:02.

to rebuild trust between Russia and its neighbours in Europe. Should he

:37:03.:37:09.

fail to do so, there are going to be additional consequences and one

:37:10.:37:12.

important thing that came out of the meeting today was the recognition on

:37:13.:37:17.

the part of all of us that we cannot simply a drift. We are joined by Sir

:37:18.:37:33.

Christopher Meyer. If I was that your Putin watching this I would

:37:34.:37:38.

think, no need to change anything. I would be pretty irritated. The one

:37:39.:37:43.

thing that your Putin does not like is being told to do things as if he

:37:44.:37:46.

is a naughty schoolboy and being put under deadlines and under pressure.

:37:47.:37:51.

I think he will react badly to that. All of that said, what he is

:37:52.:37:58.

urging is in his own interests and I am sure he will get into talks with

:37:59.:38:04.

Mr Poroshenko. It is in his interests to come Eastern Ukraine.

:38:05.:38:09.

Is he moving in that direction? Not long ago there was talk of Russian

:38:10.:38:13.

troops massing on the border of Eastern Ukraine and it was only a

:38:14.:38:18.

matter of time before that was a crisis as well, but it looks less

:38:19.:38:24.

likely now? There have been some nods and winks in the Kremlin and

:38:25.:38:27.

obscure phrases from Putin, but I think he wants to work with

:38:28.:38:31.

Poroshenko and, heaven knows, we think of it as a crisis in the West

:38:32.:38:34.

but it is a hell of a crisis for Putin and it is not served by more

:38:35.:38:40.

instability. Why do you think he has pulled back from the brink? Why did

:38:41.:38:43.

he not go on and take Eastern Ukraine? I am not convinced he was

:38:44.:39:03.

ever going to do it. I am -- having to inherit the cost and chaos of a

:39:04.:39:07.

sovereign state, I suspect that he never intended to do it but did want

:39:08.:39:11.

the massing of the army on the frontier to be a form of coercive

:39:12.:39:21.

diplomacy. Has the G7 showed itself to be a parent tiger? It is a tiger

:39:22.:39:27.

with uneven lakes. It is limping a bit and it has sharp teeth on one

:39:28.:39:32.

side and blunt on the other. Different members want to do

:39:33.:39:36.

different things. The French want to sell highly potent warships to the

:39:37.:39:40.

Russians. They do not want to, they are selling them. The Russians

:39:41.:39:44.

arrived in France to begin training. Well, there you go. The Germans are

:39:45.:39:54.

not keen on ramping things up. It has not been very effective politics

:39:55.:40:00.

for diplomacy. The thing that can get us out of all of this is that

:40:01.:40:05.

the solution is obvious - federalisation of the Ukrainian

:40:06.:40:09.

state. We all know that and I think Putin is working towards that. What

:40:10.:40:14.

do you make of the G7 approach to Ukraine? There are clearly different

:40:15.:40:19.

takes on it. I thought it was interesting when President Obama

:40:20.:40:24.

talked yesterday about, wording it nicely, pressing the pause button.

:40:25.:40:31.

He was referring to this sale of these helicopter warships. My

:40:32.:40:38.

understanding is that there are two and the first delivery will be in

:40:39.:40:42.

October. My understanding also is that we are in phase two of the

:40:43.:40:48.

sanctions being considered by the G7, and indeed by Europe, and there

:40:49.:40:53.

is a phase three and it is in phase three that then there are sanctions

:40:54.:40:57.

that deal with defence matters, which this would come under. My

:40:58.:41:04.

understanding also is that had the highest level of French government,

:41:05.:41:12.

what would happen is that the French are not saying what they would do

:41:13.:41:17.

but they understand that all parties would need to make some compromise,

:41:18.:41:23.

something would have to be negotiated. My other understanding

:41:24.:41:28.

is that the first one that is going to be delivered in October is

:41:29.:41:31.

actually a shell and that it will take months, and I do not know if

:41:32.:41:41.

Russians are training in France, the shell will take months to be built

:41:42.:41:46.

into any sort of warship. That is the reality. There is no doubt that

:41:47.:41:50.

if the Russians get the first ship there is no doubt in my mind they

:41:51.:41:54.

will get the second one as well. It is inconceivable. Can I shed light

:41:55.:42:00.

on the question of why Putin is acting the way he has, on the basis

:42:01.:42:04.

of an interesting conversation I had with eight security prison in Latvia

:42:05.:42:09.

recently. An interesting point was made. Putin made two important

:42:10.:42:14.

calculations. One was that ultimately West leaders would not

:42:15.:42:18.

push back too hard because they would have a cost benefit analysis

:42:19.:42:21.

of where their interests lay in terms of how aggressively they

:42:22.:42:27.

responded. The other, which was a miscalculation, was that there were

:42:28.:42:30.

lots of people in Eastern Ukraine who saw themselves as more Russian

:42:31.:42:35.

and Ukrainian. Although there are people who feel ethnically Russian,

:42:36.:42:38.

Putin overestimated the extent to which they would rally to wanting to

:42:39.:42:44.

be under his jurisdiction. They are culturally Russian but a lot of them

:42:45.:42:48.

feel Ukrainian. I think that is why he is backing off. They did not wise

:42:49.:42:57.

up -- rise up. I think there was a miscalculation there. I have this

:42:58.:43:00.

feeling from my own conversations that the massing of troops, though

:43:01.:43:03.

they might have moved over the frontier, was more to put pressure

:43:04.:43:06.

on the Ukrainian government and on us in the West in the knowledge that

:43:07.:43:13.

we would never go to war. Dodger federal solution involves

:43:14.:43:19.

surrendering Premier? Crimea is gone, forget about it. Should

:43:20.:43:28.

President Obama see President Putin? Probably, yes. It is difficult for

:43:29.:43:36.

Obama domestically. He has come under criticism from the left and

:43:37.:43:40.

right for not pursuing a vigorous and robust foreign policy. He is not

:43:41.:43:45.

Korean action, why should he worry? He is worried about legacy and has

:43:46.:43:49.

conflicting voices in the White House, some saying meet Putin, some

:43:50.:43:55.

saying not to. Could he not bring Putin and Poroshenko together? He

:43:56.:44:00.

would not be regarded by Putin as an honest broker because he has been

:44:01.:44:06.

the most strident, we are only number two, and it would be hard to

:44:07.:44:14.

play the role. The person who is going to bring Mr Poroshenko and Mr

:44:15.:44:19.

Putin together is President Hollande. It is happening as we

:44:20.:44:32.

speak with 19 heads of state. We say in French it is the happenstance of

:44:33.:44:37.

the calendar. 70 years after that extraordinary sacrifice that we were

:44:38.:44:40.

talking about and ordering at the beginning of the programme, you have

:44:41.:44:45.

these very different leaders in this Ukraine-Russia crisis and I

:44:46.:44:54.

understand that it is not impossible that President Obama might happen to

:44:55.:44:58.

bump into President Putin away from the cameras. President Putin gave to

:44:59.:45:02.

two French channels 36 hours ago an interview where he clearly knew what

:45:03.:45:07.

he was doing. It was a long interview and it was an interesting

:45:08.:45:12.

stand-by. He said, I will talk to anyone. There is nobody I am not

:45:13.:45:16.

going to talk to. Fascinating insight, thank you. I want to move

:45:17.:45:21.

on. Let's talk about one of France's most famous women.

:45:22.:45:28.

Christine Lagarde was in town today to deliver the IMS MOT on the

:45:29.:45:33.

British economy. Despite concerns, everything is rosy according to the

:45:34.:45:38.

IMF. While she had good news for George Osborne, she had bad news for

:45:39.:45:41.

the Prime Minister who many think would like her to be in the running

:45:42.:45:51.

for the European Commission job. I am not a candidate, and the reason I

:45:52.:45:55.

am not a candidate is that I have a job. It is a job that I think is

:45:56.:46:05.

rather important at the moment, and the United Kingdom was kind enough

:46:06.:46:10.

to support before it at the time -- me for it at the time and that it's

:46:11.:46:14.

a job I have to do and which I intend to complete. As my young son

:46:15.:46:20.

would have said, mum, when you start something, you have to finish the

:46:21.:46:26.

job. Hawaii's young son, who is clearly influential in diplomatic

:46:27.:46:30.

matters -- a wise young son. How do you read that? I suspect she is

:46:31.:46:36.

sincere and not wanting to claim the presidency of the European

:46:37.:46:39.

commission. If all of the member states turned and begged her to take

:46:40.:46:42.

the job, maybe she would, but we are not near that situation yet.

:46:43.:46:47.

Pro-British government this is a difficult moment. It is by qualified

:46:48.:46:58.

majority voting, remember, so you have to have a clear idea who you do

:46:59.:47:04.

want in the job and have a clear idea that you can rally a majority

:47:05.:47:07.

alliance behind the candidate you want. By all accounts, Cameron

:47:08.:47:12.

doesn't want Jean-Claude Juncker, but who does he want? Has he created

:47:13.:47:20.

some coalition of friends? He has a number of people who side with him

:47:21.:47:25.

about not wanting Jean-Claude Juncker, the Hungarians, the Swedes,

:47:26.:47:30.

the Dutch are very keen. -- are not very keen. What will Francoise

:47:31.:47:38.

Hollande's the -- attitude be towards Christine the guard being

:47:39.:47:43.

president of the commission? I'm glad somebody has done some work on

:47:44.:47:48.

the programme. I made some phone calls and its enquiries. The fact

:47:49.:48:04.

that a French person is head of the IMF and the second time, after the

:48:05.:48:08.

dramatic departure of the first, there is a whole knock-on effect.

:48:09.:48:14.

There is a lot of people who would like the traditional big jobs at the

:48:15.:48:18.

World Bank and the IMF not to go to the Europeans. There would be the

:48:19.:48:21.

temptation to say, hold on, that's two French people resigning

:48:22.:48:26.

on-the-job. I think it was Angela Merkel who had eight private

:48:27.:48:31.

conversation with Christine Lagarde -- a private conversation. I agree

:48:32.:48:37.

with you that if she were approached and there was this incredible

:48:38.:48:41.

consensus, she might, but there would be an awful lot of

:48:42.:48:44.

negotiations. The French position, by the way, briefly, is that

:48:45.:48:48.

Jean-Claude Juncker, this came out of the boat, the Democratic ballot

:48:49.:48:57.

-- came out of the boat. The situation is you only have to take

:48:58.:49:00.

the count. The council just takes it into account. It is not binding. Who

:49:01.:49:08.

does Francoise Hollande want? Again, the official position is that

:49:09.:49:10.

Jean-Claude Juncker would be totally entitled to have the job. Who did

:49:11.:49:16.

you call to find out who Francoise Hollande ones? I haven't spoken to

:49:17.:49:22.

anyone in the palace. I think it's a fascinating question, who would

:49:23.:49:26.

David Cameron choose instead of Jean-Claude Juncker. What is

:49:27.:49:28.

interesting is the number of pro-European Tories who I spoke to

:49:29.:49:33.

who thought that Jean-Claude Juncker would be a terrible candidate. Even

:49:34.:49:37.

the most ardent British Europhile recognises the argument that this is

:49:38.:49:44.

a figure from an old view of Europe. Who does Labour want? They will be

:49:45.:49:50.

glad not to get drawn into the conversation and will happily let

:49:51.:49:53.

this be private grief for the opposition. If I were a betting man

:49:54.:49:59.

I would still bet on in the end Jean-Claude Juncker being president.

:50:00.:50:04.

Angela Merkel will be determined to see otherwise. There is a Frenchman

:50:05.:50:13.

lurking in the woodwork here who is very credible, but might be to

:50:14.:50:28.

independent minded for our taste, and we might regret what we wish

:50:29.:50:31.

for. Well, if he's independent minded, it won't happen.

:50:32.:50:35.

Now to the ongoing saga over extremism in schools,

:50:36.:50:38.

which first kicked off in March when a letter allegedly revealed

:50:39.:50:40.

a plot for Islamist groups to take control of a school in Birmingham,

:50:41.:50:44.

Ofsted's initially launched an investigation into one school,

:50:45.:50:48.

Park View, but later expanded their so-called

:50:49.:50:51.

"Trojan Horse" investigations to 21 schools across Birmingham.

:50:52.:50:55.

That report is due to be released next week.

:50:56.:50:58.

But yesterday, a leaked copy of the report into one of the schools,

:50:59.:51:01.

Golden Hillock, criticised the school for being "inadequate" and

:51:02.:51:05.

said that "Too little is done to keep students safe from the risks

:51:06.:51:08.

All of this has sparked a war of words between the Education

:51:09.:51:19.

Secretary Michael Gove, and the Home Secretary, Theresa May.

:51:20.:51:24.

In a letter that appeared on the Home Office website this week,

:51:25.:51:27.

"Is it true that Birmingham City Council was warned

:51:28.:51:33.

Is it true that the Department for Education was warned in 2010?

:51:34.:51:39.

What followed was a flurry of statements aiming to calm

:51:40.:51:46.

the storm, saying "Michael Gove and Theresa May are working together to

:51:47.:51:49.

ensure we get to the bottom of what has happened in Birmingham and take

:51:50.:51:53.

Yesterday, Prime Minister David Cameron was asked about the row.

:51:54.:52:02.

I think it is very important that we recognise that you have to deal not

:52:03.:52:16.

only with violent extremism, but also the toleration of extremist

:52:17.:52:24.

views from which that can grow, and we are driving changes to deliver an

:52:25.:52:27.

agenda to prevent that. As the issues of the last day or so, I will

:52:28.:52:31.

get to the bottom of who has said what and what has happened and I

:52:32.:52:36.

will sort it all at once-itch -- once I finish the importance

:52:37.:52:41.

meetings here. You can see the into -- irritation that he is dealing

:52:42.:52:49.

with Barack Obama and these huge issues and the minutiae of

:52:50.:52:50.

Westminster comes in. I'm joined now by the writer

:52:51.:52:53.

and commentator Myriam Francois-Cerrah and by the

:52:54.:52:55.

commentator and founder of the West Toby Young, let me come to you. Free

:52:56.:53:04.

schools and academies are not regulated by local authorities, it

:53:05.:53:07.

is in the end of the responsibility of central government. Should the

:53:08.:53:10.

government not be more aware of what was happening in the schools? It's

:53:11.:53:14.

hard to say without having seen the Ofsted report. I think we get them

:53:15.:53:21.

early next week. We will see what's been going on and how long. There is

:53:22.:53:25.

clearly going to be a blame game next week, and it looks as though

:53:26.:53:32.

Michael Gove's mentioning of Charles Farr at the board meeting last week

:53:33.:53:37.

was an attempt to fire the first shot in the blame game. He was

:53:38.:53:41.

briefing against the Home Office in the lunch with the times. The

:53:42.:53:46.

context he was briefing against him was that he thought the Home Office

:53:47.:53:49.

should be doing more to drain the swamp and tackle the roots of

:53:50.:53:52.

extremism and not just knock the crocodiles on the head when they

:53:53.:53:55.

emerge from the swamp. That has been the running dispute between him and

:53:56.:54:01.

the Home Office. Let me move beyond the Westminster minutiae, because

:54:02.:54:07.

what people are not concerned about that, they want to know if there is

:54:08.:54:11.

a real problem in a handful of schools of Islamist extremism. What

:54:12.:54:18.

is your view? Judging from the early previews we have seen of the

:54:19.:54:24.

report, and the answer to seems to be yes and something needs to be

:54:25.:54:29.

done about it. Is this the right time to go in and subject the

:54:30.:54:32.

schools to scrutiny that we are about coming to an examination

:54:33.:54:36.

week? But often that's an excuse for not doing anything. It's always

:54:37.:54:39.

going to be a bit disruptive. Once you have got wind something going

:54:40.:54:45.

on, you must investigate and then remediate if necessary? Is there a

:54:46.:54:49.

problem? Let's get some facts straight. The Trojan horse letter is

:54:50.:54:53.

widely accepted to have been a false letter. There is no evidence of

:54:54.:54:59.

extremist links, say Birmingham council, so that basis from which

:55:00.:55:03.

Michael Gove has taken it upon himself to go out and put these

:55:04.:55:08.

schools through this intense media and educational scrutiny at a time

:55:09.:55:11.

when the young students are undergoing one of the most momentous

:55:12.:55:14.

times in their lives is a spurious documenting. You are saying there is

:55:15.:55:21.

no evidence of Islamic extremism in some Birmingham schools? I am saying

:55:22.:55:25.

there is no evidence of the so-called Trojan horse plot, and

:55:26.:55:27.

given that there is no evidence of the actual letter being real, we

:55:28.:55:32.

have to question on what basis Michael Gove is going into the

:55:33.:55:36.

schools. Back to me is the expansion of the term extremism to go beyond

:55:37.:55:42.

violent extremism, to include all Muslims. All Muslims are the swamp,

:55:43.:55:45.

and now Muslim children have to be the source of investigation. Address

:55:46.:55:49.

for me the point about the Trojan horse. It may be that the letter was

:55:50.:55:55.

fake, but it doesn't mean that the allegations it contained were not

:55:56.:55:58.

true. It subsequently emerged that even though there is some doubt as

:55:59.:56:02.

to the prominence of the letter, the substance of the allegations, it

:56:03.:56:08.

looks like it might be true. What evidence do you have? We will see

:56:09.:56:11.

next week. What evidence do you have from the leaked reports? There are

:56:12.:56:17.

many schools in this country that could be accused of cultural

:56:18.:56:21.

isolation, not least the school attended by our Prime Minister and

:56:22.:56:24.

many members of the Cabinet. You want to talk about segregation on

:56:25.:56:28.

sexual lives, most of them attended a school that was segregated

:56:29.:56:33.

according not only to sexual lines, but also according to class lines,

:56:34.:56:37.

so if you want to talk about cultural isolation there are many

:56:38.:56:39.

schools in this country that could be accused of that. It is because

:56:40.:56:44.

they are Muslim, that is the problem. I think it is an

:56:45.:56:51.

overreaction to say that all Muslims have been placed under suspicion as

:56:52.:56:57.

a result of the investigation. I don't think it is the fact that

:56:58.:57:00.

there are Muslims in the school that has been the trigger for the

:57:01.:57:05.

investigation. It absolutely is. I den think it is. You mention various

:57:06.:57:11.

types of isolation, and it looks like men and women have been

:57:12.:57:14.

segregated in the school. It is one thing saying eating is single sex

:57:15.:57:20.

school, but it is private and isn't subject to the same regulations --

:57:21.:57:27.

eaten schools. There are single sex state schools. My children attend a

:57:28.:57:30.

single sex school. That happens everywhere. There are various roles

:57:31.:57:36.

you are meant to observe in schools, and one of them is you are not

:57:37.:57:39.

supposed to segregate children according to their gender in

:57:40.:57:42.

lessons. You are also supposed to teach them the theory of evolution

:57:43.:57:45.

in biology. You are meant to teach them about other religions. And as

:57:46.:57:50.

far as you can tell in the report that those are the issues coming to

:57:51.:57:55.

hand, but there are evidence of internal grievances. If you

:57:56.:57:58.

inspected any school the way these schools have been inspected, you

:57:59.:58:02.

would find an internal grievance. Segregation of people in a coed

:58:03.:58:06.

school that is not a faith school, is that acceptable? They're already

:58:07.:58:10.

coed school separating their students? To this extent? In

:58:11.:58:16.

lessons? I can't see you taking issue with Catholic school. What is

:58:17.:58:22.

the answer to the question? Do you find it acceptable to sexually

:58:23.:58:26.

segregate children in assemblies and lessons? It's not about what I

:58:27.:58:33.

think. We are asking you. It's irrelevant about what I think

:58:34.:58:36.

because I don't support the separation in classes. We have to

:58:37.:58:39.

leave it there because we have run out of time. Thanks to all of our

:58:40.:58:41.

guests. I'll be back on BBC One on Sunday

:58:42.:58:43.

with the Sunday Politics and I'll be joined by Scotland's

:58:44.:58:46.

Deputy First Minister, Nicola And there will be more follow-up

:58:47.:58:53.

from the Newark by-election. How could you miss that?

:58:54.:58:55.

This is one of the most fire-prone regions on earth.

:58:56.:59:14.

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