12/09/2014 Daily Politics


12/09/2014

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Good afternoon, folks. Welcome to our programme live from Edinburgh,

:00:42.:00:49.

where, with six days to go, both sides of the referendum campaign are

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throwing everything at it. A tearful Prime Minister, a Petchey Alex

:00:54.:00:57.

Salmond. A tree load of MPs coming up from England. What could possibly

:00:58.:01:06.

go wrong? -- a train full of MPs. The campaigners claim, on the yes

:01:07.:01:10.

side, but they are on the road to victory, but the polls do not give

:01:11.:01:14.

them the momentum they had at the weekend. The no campaign is in the

:01:15.:01:19.

lead and the reality is too close to call. Those campaigning to save the

:01:20.:01:23.

union have marshalled a bevy of big businesses to claim all sorts of bad

:01:24.:01:27.

things would follow a yes vote. Alex Salmond says it is scaremongering.

:01:28.:01:33.

And we have been to Glasgow to get under the skin of yes and no voters

:01:34.:01:38.

in the east end. If you win the election, we get independence, build

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a community centre as big as this Jobcentre so people have something

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to look forward to something to do. What we need to realise is this is

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not about political parties. This is about the future our country.

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Here in London, we will be looking at what next week's referendum means

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for the rest of the UK, which ever way Scots decide to folk. -- to

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vote. The leader of Plaid Cymru and the Conservative MP John Emery will

:02:11.:02:13.

join me live to discuss the future of the union.

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All of that in the next hour. With us for the duration, a yes vote from

:02:23.:02:31.

the Scotsman and Alan Cochrane, Scotland editor for the Daily

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Telegraph who will be voting no. Yesterday the yes campaign shot

:02:38.:02:40.

ahead for the first time. But this week sought to polls with the no

:02:41.:02:49.

campaign back in the lead, leading to claims that Alex Salmond has

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peaked too soon. It is possible. The big guns will have an impact on the

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low side. Scottish people are listening to the arguments. There

:03:03.:03:05.

are still many people not firmed up in their intention to vote. The

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sheer weight of the firepower that has been brought to bear since that

:03:10.:03:14.

poll came out is, I think, bound to have some sort of impact. If you're

:03:15.:03:18.

asking me for a prediction, I would say a narrow note next Thursday. A

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narrow no? But I do think it is still to play for and it depends how

:03:25.:03:29.

the campaign goes, and the no campaign have made some errors over

:03:30.:03:32.

the last year and if they make another it could go the other way.

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It is within the margin of error. It is very close. I suppose the one

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thing on the yes side that would be a bit disappointing is that what

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Madame is everything in a referendum in particular. Undecideds might

:03:45.:03:50.

think, the country folk are going one way, I will join them, I have

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made up my mind. Alex Salmond has not yet got that momentum. It looked

:03:54.:03:59.

like he was going to get at last we get. I certainly hope that he peaked

:04:00.:04:05.

too early. The difference in his demeanour between Sunday and Monday,

:04:06.:04:09.

and the last couple of days, has been remarkable. As well as the big

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guns being thrown at them, quite rightly, it is about time, there is

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something else going on that maybe we are not being let in on. There is

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a change in the mood in the nationalist camp. There is an

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incredible amount of churn in these polls that makes me suspicious. If

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you look at the difference between the YouGov poll at the weekend and

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today, women have gone from being more favourable to yes two against

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it again. Young people, under 25, big support for yes at the weekend

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but now they are quite a start Stan shall no vote. That makes me very

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suspicious about these polls. -- a substantial no vote. They are

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dealing with a bigger turnout than we have usually seen. People are

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registering to vote in unprecedented numbers. There is no way of telling

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what that means. The yes camp hopes that all of those people who do not

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normally vote will be leaning towards the yes side, but I do not

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think it is that predictable. They could go either way. It does put the

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polls in the difficult position. The don't knows are down to four present

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in the latest poll. I am asked on this day are still out there! How

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much information do they need? This has been going on for years. Make up

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your minds! Whatever poll you look at, they are all within a

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statistical margin of error. The result could go either way. With

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only six days to go the outcome of the most important constitutional

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decision in the Union's 300-year-old history is on a knife edge. This was

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not always the case. It was one opinion poll last weekend

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that really set this contest alike, with YouGov putting the yes campaign

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ahead for the first time. There are plenty of different surveys out

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there, all telling a slightly different stories. Luckily for us,

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John Curtis has put together a poll of polls that shows just how tight

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this race has become. Based on the average of six keep owls, if we look

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back to the end of last year, public opinion in Scotland looked settled

:06:27.:06:31.

and the no campaign had a commanding lead.

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At one point at the end of last year, 63% backed no and only 37%

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voted eight -- supported a yes vote. Moving up to this week, you can see

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a clear trend emerging as the no lead gets narrower. The recent polls

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have it hanging in the balance. The most recent up-to-date figures put

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yes on 48 armed no on 52, which in polling terms close to call. Because

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there is often a pot with polling, most recent headlines have been

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generated by survey results which excluded people who said they did

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not know if Scotland should be independent. This final week of the

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campaign could prove decisive, if it can persuade those all-important

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undecided voters. It'll all come too late to influence those who have

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already voted, because a record number, almost 20% of registered

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voters, asked to do so I vote and may have already cast their ballot.

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We are joined now by Joe Twyman, who has travelled up with us. How

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seriously should we take these polls? They are having a huge effect

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on the campaign. It was because of a poll that TM queues was cancelled

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and they all came north. -- 's Prime Minister's Questions. Why are they

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all over the place? What has happened, if you are looking at the

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long-term trends, within different companies, you see that the story is

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pretty consistent. That is that the no campaign was ahead for some time

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and then around about the start of August, things started to change

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with the debates. Since then there has been a decline in support for

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know and growth in support for yes. Recently we have seen a reaction to

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that and, roll out the cliche, it is too close to call. Your company had

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the yes campaign, 53-47 at the weekend, now it is no, 52-48. That

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could be explained in a statistical margin of error. That is the normal

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probability and no one can abolish it. It actually could still be that

:08:52.:08:57.

the yes campaign is in head? -- head? It is all to play for and we

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could see yes victory or no victory next week. We just don't know. When

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is the next poll coming. On the eve of poll prediction on Wednesday. Are

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you confident that you are using the right polling techniques? Unlike

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general elections, where you have got a statistical series and people

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you can go back to how you -- who you know have voted before, you have

:09:28.:09:33.

nothing to compare it against. We have historical data on political

:09:34.:09:37.

attitudes. Whether it was how they voted in the Holyrood election or

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the European elections, who they politically identify with. This goes

:09:41.:09:44.

into the mix to compare it against. We have historical data on political

:09:45.:09:46.

attitudes. Whether it was how they voted in the Holyrood election or

:09:47.:09:48.

the European elections, who they politically identify with. This goes

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into the mix too alarmist to, hopefully, accurately model the

:09:51.:09:52.

outcome on Thursday. -- goes into the mix to allow us to. Alex Salmond

:09:53.:09:58.

is as -- is ahead in a lot of major demographics but in the younger of

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the young people and the over 60s, he is trailing. That is right. It is

:10:03.:10:08.

an area where he needs to make inroads, particularly among older

:10:09.:10:11.

people. I crossed the duration of the campaign, they have staunchly

:10:12.:10:16.

been positioning themselves in favour of no. They make up a large

:10:17.:10:20.

proportion of the electorate and are most likely to vote. People are

:10:21.:10:24.

talking about a high possible turnout for this referendum. "

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back, 93% turned out, which is astonishingly high. -- Quebec. It

:10:30.:10:37.

makes the over 60s particularly important. It is going to be over

:10:38.:10:41.

80% turnout, isn't it? I would expect so, probably well over. I do

:10:42.:10:48.

not know if it will help either side. I think there is a hope that

:10:49.:10:52.

some of the disenfranchised will vote on the yes side, and they will

:10:53.:11:03.

vote because they do not like the current Westminster representation.

:11:04.:11:08.

If they turn out there is a feeling they will be likely to vote for

:11:09.:11:12.

change rather than the status quo. A few anecdotal reports have found

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that, that a lot of the people who do not normally vote at all because

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they hate politics or politicians, registered this vote time -- have

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registered to vote this time and are leaning towards yes. I heard a taxi

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driver saying that, that he had not voted from the election. The poll

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that came out a couple of days ago was the same as it had been a month

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ago. It is the YouGov poll jumping all over the place. And the TNS

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poll, which is a face-to-face survey. They are both showing the

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same trend, the decline. Is there not also the phenomenon, the shy

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Tory phenomenon, that people do not want to admit they are voting no

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because it is seen as unpatriotic. Yes, and this is something you have

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to take account of. You have to Yes, and this is something you have

:12:08.:12:11.

model your analysis to make sure you are doing all you can to tease

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model your analysis to make sure you that information from people. If it

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was easy, anyone could do it. These days, almost anyone can!

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was easy, anyone could do it. These us. With the polls as tight as ebony

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is Scrooge, what is the key battle ground? Most Scots live in cities or

:12:28.:12:30.

a large towns. Dundee is thought to be sewn up with a Yesil, Edinburgh

:12:31.:12:38.

Strong for a no vote. Glasgow is emerging as a key battle ground. For

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years a Labour Party fiefdom, but the yes campaign has been making

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inroads and Labour has been struggling to hold on to what was

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once it's party faithful. We said Adam out onto its streets.

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The referendum battle is in full swing in the East End of Glasgow,

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but you know what they say, an army marches on its stomach. I have just

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bought one of these - Scotch pie. The problem is that people eat too

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many of these and this area has become infamous as having one of the

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lowest life expectancy is anywhere in the UK. -- expectancies. Tasty,

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though! in the UK. -- expectancies. Tasty,

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place where she grew up has in the UK. -- expectancies. Tasty,

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neglected and it is time for a change. This is the biggest building

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in my street. It is the Jobcentre. The biggest building in this street

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is the Jobcentre. The pub is shot. The Jobcentre is huge. , and have a

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look at how big this Jobcentre is. That is how big it is. That is big

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for a Jobcentre. If we get independence, build a community

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centre as big so we have something to look forward to something to do,

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not just somewhere to get penalised if you do not fill in our forum or

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don't turn up for a interview. -- fill in a form. The polls suggest

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more and more working class Labour supporters are going to vote yes. As

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I found out in the tattoo parlour! We have had interest with ten people

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already going for a yes tattoo. And how many have gone for the no?

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None. Needles the no campaign! I found the yes campaign knocking on

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doors with a local Labour councillor. We need to take the

:14:42.:14:46.

political parties out. It is a referendum to decide, do we stay or

:14:47.:14:51.

do we break up? Nevertheless, why do people think that Labour didn't do

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very much for them? I mean, they were 13 years in power. I don't

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understand it. There has been a lot of input. And what about the fact

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that nobody wants Better Together tattooed on them? If you are yes,

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you do not want to change. If you do not want to change it is harder to

:15:18.:15:22.

show what you support. So you would not get a no tattoo in the last

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week? If it would make the difference, I would! And they just

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might among the mums and dads at football training. It turns out a

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lot of them still have not made up their mind.

:15:36.:15:40.

A lot of people are still undecided, one day it could be yes, then it

:15:41.:15:45.

could change. When do you think people will

:15:46.:15:49.

decide? On the day. I think there will be a

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lot of changed minds on the day. These last few days leading up to

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Thursday will be crucial. The final whistle hasn't blown.

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Certainly not. To borrow a phrase, there is still plenty to play for

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with Glasgow's East Enders. We are joined now by the man in

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charge of the Better Together campaign, Alistair Darling.

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When I interviewed Jim Murphy, your colleague, he described your running

:16:20.:16:24.

of the campaign as brilliant. A campaign that has gone from a 22

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points lead, to nip and tuck. And if you had held onto that 22 points

:16:33.:16:35.

lead? I said a year ago it would go down

:16:36.:16:40.

to the wire. It is not surprising. The biggest

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single position most of us will ever take. If we decide to leave, there

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is no going back. It is not surprising people are moving around.

:16:50.:16:56.

Did you know that the lead but go from 22 points, down to zero, at

:16:57.:17:01.

which nothing you can do about it? I did say a year ago that it would

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narrow, and it is not surprising. I said it would go down.

:17:08.:17:12.

Surely, if you knew, your campaign would stop that from happening?

:17:13.:17:19.

The arguments in this campaign, the emotional and economic arguments,

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have been around the nearly three years.

:17:24.:17:26.

What I do think is, in the last week, that poll at the weekend has

:17:27.:17:31.

galvanised people who realise how high the stakes are.

:17:32.:17:36.

This week, it could become clearer that we can have the change that we

:17:37.:17:42.

want within the UK, we can do it better, faster and more secure

:17:43.:17:47.

without the risks. Also, people are beginning to

:17:48.:17:51.

concentrate on what the risks are in terms of the prices we pay in shops,

:17:52.:17:57.

jobs, security, payment of pensions, NHS. Which is why the we should win.

:17:58.:18:05.

If you knew this narrowing was going to take place, why did you wait

:18:06.:18:09.

until the yes campaign had overtaken you in one poll, with less than two

:18:10.:18:16.

weeks to go, before you rolled out this home rule blueprint?

:18:17.:18:18.

You should have rolled it out long before?

:18:19.:18:23.

People are less interested in the process is in this campaign.

:18:24.:18:27.

You going to wait until they cast their vote?

:18:28.:18:31.

The fact that the non-nationalist parties were promising change, and

:18:32.:18:35.

the fact we can do it in a better way within the security of the UK,

:18:36.:18:41.

faster because we will have the years of wrangling gone, and more

:18:42.:18:48.

secure. These are things concentrating our minds.

:18:49.:18:52.

What I am asking is, why did you wait so long?

:18:53.:18:56.

You can only conclude it was panic. I don't agree with you.

:18:57.:19:02.

Why did you wait? What is more important, what we are voted on next

:19:03.:19:08.

week, and the majority of people in Scotland do want that change within

:19:09.:19:13.

the UK, they do not want the risks of independence. The other

:19:14.:19:16.

interesting thing, if you listen to Alex Salmond who is flying around in

:19:17.:19:21.

a helicopter, while most people on the ground are bothered about the

:19:22.:19:27.

announcements of headquarters moving, supermarkets saying we would

:19:28.:19:32.

have to pay more, those other things which will concentrate our minds as

:19:33.:19:36.

we put our cross on the ballot. The biggest decision any of us will

:19:37.:19:41.

take. We have said it several times. You

:19:42.:19:45.

have been critical of the yes campaign further lack of clarity.

:19:46.:19:51.

Now you have this home rule blueprint, we need clarity. Let me

:19:52.:19:59.

ask you. How much income tax will be devolved to Scotland?

:20:00.:20:04.

Under our proposals at the moment... Yes, between 40% and 50%.

:20:05.:20:14.

What is important is each political party has put forward proposals in

:20:15.:20:18.

the same place. Here we are less than a week to go.

:20:19.:20:22.

I don't know what currency we will be using in a week.

:20:23.:20:30.

These are the questions. I am interviewing the no campaign. Will

:20:31.:20:36.

the Scottish Parliament have control over oil revenues?

:20:37.:20:39.

No, none of the political parties are doing that. The advantages we

:20:40.:20:45.

have at the moment, we have control over health and education,

:20:46.:20:46.

transport. It is better that the payment of

:20:47.:20:52.

pensions should be a UK business ability. With a rising ageing

:20:53.:20:59.

population, we take that burden across 63 million people, not 5

:21:00.:21:04.

million. You can contribute at a Scottish and UK level.

:21:05.:21:08.

The powers we see coming to the Scottish Parliament will mean we

:21:09.:21:11.

will have more powers than many federal governments that people look

:21:12.:21:18.

at. I understand. Is it only income tax?

:21:19.:21:23.

We don't know how much? As I said, the difference between

:21:24.:21:28.

the parties is about 10%. We know with the yes campaign we get

:21:29.:21:35.

100%, that is exact. That is clarity. Equally, you know

:21:36.:21:41.

you will lose the ?1200 extra a year per head of population in Scotland.

:21:42.:21:49.

You would have a country that is dependent on 15% of its revenues

:21:50.:21:53.

from oil, the prices of which are volatile. Ian Wood, an expert, has

:21:54.:21:59.

made the point in 20 years the production will have run down. For

:22:00.:22:06.

that one source of revenue, it is putting jobs, so much at risk. It is

:22:07.:22:11.

not surprising that people are saying no, thanks.

:22:12.:22:15.

Has Ed Balls signed off on this demolition of income tax?

:22:16.:22:18.

The Labour Party has agreed an event we have put forward. I am part of

:22:19.:22:23.

the Labour Party. Where does Ed Balls agree on the

:22:24.:22:27.

record? I understand what you are trying to

:22:28.:22:33.

do. The Labour Party, the Liberal party and the Conservative Party

:22:34.:22:37.

have put forward proposals. We have a procedure which means by January

:22:38.:22:42.

next year we will have registration, as opposed to years of wrangling if

:22:43.:22:46.

we leave the UK. I know Europe pretty well. They

:22:47.:22:51.

don't decide anything quickly. That uncertainty would cost jobs and make

:22:52.:22:57.

Scotland even more insecure. You know Ed Balls. One of his great

:22:58.:23:03.

concerns is tax competition. If you have separate regimes in London and

:23:04.:23:07.

Edinburgh setting different taxes, there will be a race to the bottom.

:23:08.:23:13.

That is why I am asking this legitimate question.

:23:14.:23:17.

I am saying, yes, you are right about tax condition. The only tax

:23:18.:23:23.

proposal the Nationalists are making is to reduce corporation tax to 3p

:23:24.:23:28.

less than that fixed by the UK. That is a race to the bottom it is not a

:23:29.:23:39.

distributive policy. The only people getting a tax break our large

:23:40.:23:43.

corporations. Is it fair you can promise in the

:23:44.:23:48.

dying days of a campaign further major constitutional change for

:23:49.:23:52.

Scotland, and yet not consult the rest of the UK and find out what

:23:53.:23:56.

they think about this and what it should mean to them?

:23:57.:24:02.

These proposals were made some months ago. You are right that

:24:03.:24:07.

earlier this week Carwyn Jones, the First Minister of Wales, said he

:24:08.:24:12.

wanted greater powers in Wales. And England? There is a big argument

:24:13.:24:16.

about transferring particularly economic powers to the English

:24:17.:24:21.

cities outside London. Why can't people in England have the

:24:22.:24:25.

same powers to determine their education and health and income tax

:24:26.:24:31.

as you are about to give the Scots? As we know, the constitutional

:24:32.:24:34.

argument in Scotland has been raging for 40 years and has not been

:24:35.:24:39.

replicated south of the border. It could be now.

:24:40.:24:43.

None of us should be afraid of changing the way things are run.

:24:44.:24:49.

However... Let me ask you, are you saying that Scotland can have all

:24:50.:24:54.

this extra tax-raising power within the UK, and other powers moved as

:24:55.:24:59.

well. And yet, there will still be the same number of MPs from Scotland

:25:00.:25:04.

in Westminster, and you won't answer the West Lothian Scotland, Scottish

:25:05.:25:08.

MPs will still be able to vote on English only matters.

:25:09.:25:16.

Seven governments -- successive governments have been struggling to

:25:17.:25:19.

that question. That is a constitutional debate.

:25:20.:25:26.

What I am concentrating on in the next six days is trying to persuade

:25:27.:25:30.

a majority of my fellow country people that our best future is

:25:31.:25:36.

secured by staying in the UK. Isn't the harsh truth of your

:25:37.:25:45.

position in this historically Labour country, a symbolic failure of the

:25:46.:25:47.

Labour Party? It is not. You have presided over a

:25:48.:25:56.

corrupt 1-party fiefdom, riven by tribal warfare, half of you don't

:25:57.:25:59.

speak to the other, half do not speak to you. Doug Alexander does

:26:00.:26:04.

not speak to Gordon Brown. This is rubbish. No political party

:26:05.:26:11.

in Scotland or anywhere else in the UK can take any group of people...

:26:12.:26:18.

There is tribal warfare. You are in decline!

:26:19.:26:22.

This is nonsense. People said that before the local elections in

:26:23.:26:26.

Glasgow in 2012. Guess what, we want with a majority.

:26:27.:26:34.

Glasgow, this Labour city, is a battle ground.

:26:35.:26:36.

Every part of Scotland is a battle ground. Every part of Scotland. You

:26:37.:26:42.

cannot make those Sumption is, well you know it, I can see you laughing.

:26:43.:26:49.

This is something that is dividing people. Passionate arguments. The

:26:50.:26:54.

decision we have to make, not just for our generation.

:26:55.:27:01.

Forever. Have you ever mentioned in this campaign to defend the union

:27:02.:27:05.

that Scotland belongs to the UK and is the fastest-growing economy in

:27:06.:27:09.

the western world? Our economy is recovering. I have

:27:10.:27:14.

mentioned that. As a former Chancellor, I am asked regularly.

:27:15.:27:23.

The economy is growing. I hope this recovery is well founded. There are

:27:24.:27:28.

big questions to be asked, especially as in Europe it is

:27:29.:27:31.

stagnating. I have my differences with the present Government. The

:27:32.:27:36.

bigger question is, how do we make sure it is a fair recovery so

:27:37.:27:41.

everyone feels the benefit, not just some. It is an argument in Scotland

:27:42.:27:46.

and the UK. I do differ from some people. But

:27:47.:27:53.

the key thing is, for Scotland, are we going to be better off breaking

:27:54.:27:58.

away with all of those uncertainties? Or have the best of

:27:59.:28:03.

both worlds, a strong Scottish Government, a strong economy, I

:28:04.:28:06.

don't want to see all those companies being forced out of

:28:07.:28:11.

Scotland because we will rue the day once you lose headquarters and lose

:28:12.:28:15.

decision making. What do you make of that?

:28:16.:28:20.

I think the questions you were asking about the proposed new

:28:21.:28:24.

devolution settlement are pertinent. Alistair knows and he won't be able

:28:25.:28:28.

to say it now, he knows perfectly well we could have had a question

:28:29.:28:33.

about extending and improved devolution on the ballot paper back

:28:34.:28:37.

in 2012. Alex Salmond is a realistic politician and has always known.

:28:38.:28:43.

The first question is, are we staying in the UK?

:28:44.:28:48.

No, it isn't the first question. No, it isn't. You know there are plenty

:28:49.:28:55.

of people in Scotland who will only vote for a continuing UK if it is

:28:56.:28:59.

going to be a very different UK. There are all sorts of problems the

:29:00.:29:03.

Westminster democracy need addressing.

:29:04.:29:10.

As someone who does not believe in any more devolution, they are going

:29:11.:29:13.

to do it. The Prime Minister said it.

:29:14.:29:18.

The Prime Minister wants this. I am astonished, but he wants different

:29:19.:29:22.

tax rates throughout the whole of the UK. I am afraid they are going

:29:23.:29:26.

to do it. The final point?

:29:27.:29:30.

Coming back to Joyce. I know we are on different sides.

:29:31.:29:34.

If you take Alex Salmond and his claim at face value that he wanted a

:29:35.:29:39.

currency union, it would mean Scottish policies would be decided

:29:40.:29:43.

in the very country you have broken away from. That is nonsense. That is

:29:44.:29:49.

why we will win. Back to London.

:29:50.:29:55.

For many of you watching in England, Wales or Northern Ireland, you may

:29:56.:29:59.

be thinking what it has got to do with you? Rather a lot because

:30:00.:30:04.

whichever way Scotland boats, the country will get new powers. Which

:30:05.:30:08.

has led to calls for more powers to be handed to the other countries

:30:09.:30:09.

that make up Welcome to my guests. Leanne Wood,

:30:10.:30:23.

you have been campaigning in Scotland as the polls have narrowed.

:30:24.:30:27.

As much as you might want independent for Wales you except

:30:28.:30:29.

there is not the same appetite there as there is in Scotland? We are on

:30:30.:30:37.

very different journeys and we are very different countries. Scotland

:30:38.:30:40.

started out with much more devolution in 1997 than we did in

:30:41.:30:48.

Wales. The criminal justice system was devolved, as was the education

:30:49.:30:53.

service. I am confident we are on the same journey, but at different

:30:54.:30:57.

places. Yes, I have been up in Scotland. One of the most exciting

:30:58.:31:02.

things about the campaign there is the grassroots nature of the

:31:03.:31:06.

campaign, and the fact that we have talked as politicians for such a

:31:07.:31:10.

long time about the problem of apathy and the lack of engagement

:31:11.:31:16.

amongst citizens in politics when, in Scotland, there is very little

:31:17.:31:19.

apathy that I could see and Argosy seems to have been reborn. So,

:31:20.:31:25.

whatever the outcome of the results on 18th September, something very

:31:26.:31:28.

special has happened there and I think it would be great if that

:31:29.:31:31.

could continue and could be replicated here in Wales as well.

:31:32.:31:36.

John Redwood, you want a separate English Parliament. How many of your

:31:37.:31:42.

Conservative colleagues agree? The overwhelming majority of

:31:43.:31:43.

Conservative parliamentarians and membership want to solve the English

:31:44.:31:48.

problem. If Scotland is going to have a lot more powers, and we must

:31:49.:31:51.

honour the pledge, though I hope they stay with us, England needs the

:31:52.:31:55.

same powers. We need an English Parliament at Westminster and we

:31:56.:31:59.

should do it in an economical way. I am happy to go on being an English

:32:00.:32:03.

MP as well as a union MP, as I am at the moment. We need to make our own

:32:04.:32:07.

decisions that parallel the decisions the Scottish parliament is

:32:08.:32:11.

making in Scotland. That is the one thing where the SNP and I agree. How

:32:12.:32:21.

would it work in practice? Would use it for a limited number of days each

:32:22.:32:24.

week, or would it be an entirely separate parliament in addition to

:32:25.:32:27.

Westminster? It would be the English members of the Westminster

:32:28.:32:28.

Parliament sitting as the parliament. There would be days when

:32:29.:32:32.

it was English business, so colleagues from other parts of the

:32:33.:32:36.

union need not attend. We would do all the other things in England that

:32:37.:32:39.

the Scottish Parliament does in Scotland. I am fed up with this

:32:40.:32:43.

lopsided devolution, this unfettered evolution. Scotland gets first-class

:32:44.:32:51.

devolution, Wales get second-class and England gets nothing. If Wales

:32:52.:32:54.

was the same of us, they should have it, and we would have commonality

:32:55.:32:59.

and we could discuss and decide in our own assemblies and parliaments

:33:00.:33:02.

all those things that are devolved. It comes back to whether people want

:33:03.:33:07.

it, Leanne Wood. Only around one in ten people agree in Wales that there

:33:08.:33:11.

should be independence. When it comes to more powers for the Welsh

:33:12.:33:15.

Assembly, only around 40% of people wanted that in a poll earlier this

:33:16.:33:21.

year. Whether it is apathy or satisfaction, people are happy with

:33:22.:33:26.

the status quo. At the moment you are right, but things can change

:33:27.:33:29.

ferry quickly. Can I just agree with the point that was just made by John

:33:30.:33:34.

Redwood - England does need to decide what it needs to do now and

:33:35.:33:38.

should have self-determination, but the best way of achieving that is if

:33:39.:33:42.

Scotland votes yes. What we know from previous experiences, back in

:33:43.:33:50.

1999 Margaret thatcher said that if Scotland voted no in that

:33:51.:33:54.

referendum, additional powers would be granted. -- Margaret Thatcher.

:33:55.:33:58.

The only way Scotland will get more powers and the way England will have

:33:59.:34:01.

this debate and Wales will get the settlement we need is to -- if

:34:02.:34:08.

Scotland votes yes on 18th September. John Woodward, are you a

:34:09.:34:14.

fan of the plan for federalism for the UK that Nick Clegg has

:34:15.:34:19.

suggested? We have heard Alistair Darling saying more economic powers

:34:20.:34:22.

should be transferred to cities in England. I do not see a groundswell

:34:23.:34:28.

of opinion from the public saying, let's have more bureaucracy. They

:34:29.:34:32.

are insulting England. England is a great country, as Scotland is. I

:34:33.:34:35.

find now that most English people want there to be fairness and

:34:36.:34:41.

justice. We accept there is going to be more home-rule or self-government

:34:42.:34:47.

in Scotland. We want the same for ourselves. It may be that being rich

:34:48.:34:50.

parliament will want to delegate more powers to the cities, though I

:34:51.:34:59.

note that there may be a referendum about mayors. -- the English

:35:00.:35:06.

Parliament will want to delegate. The fundamental issues about how

:35:07.:35:09.

high income tax is going to be will not be settled separately in

:35:10.:35:12.

Manchester and Bradford, it will be settled by the Jewish Parliament. It

:35:13.:35:15.

could not be settled by the Parliament of the union with

:35:16.:35:23.

Scottish MPs voting on tax in England but not in Scotland. Was

:35:24.:35:29.

there a panic in your mind that there was too much offered to

:35:30.:35:33.

Scotland in the closing days of the campaign? I accept Allah stalag --

:35:34.:35:38.

Alistair Darling's point about offering more devolution and then

:35:39.:35:42.

they accelerated timetable. I am speaking in a way for my party,

:35:43.:35:47.

because my party fought the last election saying that in the United

:35:48.:35:50.

Kingdom Parliament, in future, there are needed to be English votes for

:35:51.:35:53.

English aces. In other words, there needs to be an English government at

:35:54.:35:58.

Westminster for all those things Scotland has devolved power over.

:35:59.:36:02.

What powers were July to see divorced to Wales if, for instance,

:36:03.:36:07.

you were in power and the Prime Minister rang you up and he said,

:36:08.:36:12.

this is the shopping list we would like. What would it be? There have

:36:13.:36:19.

been numerous commissions, the latest being the Subcommission which

:36:20.:36:24.

has proposed powers for Wales for criminal Justice, energy, tax

:36:25.:36:34.

sharing. -- the Silk Commission. . We need to move on the

:36:35.:36:40.

recommendations without cherry picking or the lock step which would

:36:41.:36:43.

reduce tax powers. Then we need to move towards a system of

:36:44.:36:46.

self-government. The days of devolution are over and there is a

:36:47.:36:49.

consensus in Wales that the settlement that we have is not fit

:36:50.:36:54.

for purpose and it is up to people to decide what powers they want to

:36:55.:36:57.

hold in Wales and what powers they want to share with others as we move

:36:58.:37:03.

on our journey towards the same situation as Scotland is embarking

:37:04.:37:06.

upon next week, when they hold soft retreat for one day and decide

:37:07.:37:11.

whether they get to keep it. -- when they hold sovereignty. What are you

:37:12.:37:16.

going to do on 19th September, one we know the result of the

:37:17.:37:22.

referendum. Whichever way it goes, what will you do with your campaign?

:37:23.:37:27.

I will continue to be a voice for England. If Better Together wins, I

:37:28.:37:33.

will press on the government a solution which is not just about

:37:34.:37:37.

Scotland but also about England and if Wales and Northern Ireland wish,

:37:38.:37:40.

for them as well. It would be neat to have the same powers for each

:37:41.:37:48.

part of United Kingdom. It should be a United Kingdom Bill. There needs

:37:49.:37:52.

to be enough home-rule in every part of the United Kingdom to satisfy

:37:53.:37:55.

local opinion and that might turn out to be a similar amount in each

:37:56.:38:06.

part of the United Kingdom. Why we have been on air we have

:38:07.:38:09.

learned that the Reverend Ian Paisley has died at the age of 88.

:38:10.:38:20.

Ian Paisley was one of the huge historic figures of Northern Ireland

:38:21.:38:26.

at the heart of the troubles in the late 60s. His demonstrations

:38:27.:38:31.

gathered pace. He was one of the leading Protestant firebrand against

:38:32.:38:34.

any kind of arrangement with the Catholic population. " No surrender"

:38:35.:38:42.

was his famous call. He was the figure that you had to take into

:38:43.:38:47.

account in Belfast. He made life miserable for moderate Protestant

:38:48.:38:50.

leaders who were trying to do a deal. Who would have thought that

:38:51.:38:54.

after that history and at that time, and he got blamed for many of the

:38:55.:39:00.

things that happened - the housing policy and the riots and

:39:01.:39:05.

demonstrations, and the IRA uprising, but in the end as the

:39:06.:39:09.

peace process took place, it was the Reverend Ian Paisley who sat down

:39:10.:39:13.

with the IRA's Martin McGuinness to help form a new government. None of

:39:14.:39:18.

us in Belfast at the time ever saw that coming. Indeed, Martin

:39:19.:39:24.

McGuinness and Ian Paisley were so close that once did that people

:39:25.:39:29.

called them the Chuckle Brothers. A defensive but major figure in

:39:30.:39:33.

Northern Irish history has died today, the Reverend Ian Paisley, at

:39:34.:39:36.

the age of 88. We have got a new opinion poll at

:39:37.:39:42.

the referendum here in Scotland from Guardian ICM. It has the no vote on

:39:43.:39:47.

51 and a yes vote on 49. Nip and tuck, very much the same. The YouGov

:39:48.:39:58.

poll, nobody -- know is ahead for a third time this week but with a

:39:59.:40:06.

statistical significance only. What I wanted to talk about, if it is a

:40:07.:40:15.

no vote on the Westminster parties live up to their promise, surely it

:40:16.:40:19.

is inconceivable you could have this matter further change in Scotland

:40:20.:40:23.

without England, Wales, and Northern Ireland wanting their constitutions

:40:24.:40:28.

change? This is the issue about the mishandling of this whole debate

:40:29.:40:33.

about the campaign. The loss of the lead is down to it. London has not

:40:34.:40:41.

paid enough attention to the debate or to the strength and range of it.

:40:42.:40:47.

If there was going to become perhaps of reform of the kind that Gordon

:40:48.:40:54.

Brown was talking about whilst using the word federalism, they would have

:40:55.:40:58.

had to be on the case as soon as they saw the victory and the SNP

:40:59.:41:07.

saying, we are going to look to a constitutional convention for the UK

:41:08.:41:14.

and serious talk about the devolution. Have they done a? No.

:41:15.:41:19.

The point is to think to themselves, why have they not done it? What is

:41:20.:41:25.

the source of that complacency, that deafness, the lack of interest until

:41:26.:41:37.

they saw the YouGov poll last week" Mike -- the YouGov poll last week.

:41:38.:41:48.

There has to be a UK element to any constitutional change. That is why

:41:49.:41:53.

there will have to be some sort of UK constitution. It is not about

:41:54.:41:58.

kicking into touch by making it work. If it is done like the last

:41:59.:42:03.

lot in 1999, which was Scotland only, it did not work because it

:42:04.:42:07.

brought up the SNP upsurge. What needs to happen is for the whole of

:42:08.:42:14.

the UK to devolve. The Welsh one more, the Irish would probably take

:42:15.:42:17.

more as well. That have a UK solution.

:42:18.:42:24.

Gordon Brown's home-rule blueprint was presented by him as without

:42:25.:42:27.

consequences for Scotland in Westminster, but there will have --

:42:28.:42:32.

be strong demand south of the border in England. You do not need 59 MPs

:42:33.:42:39.

in Westminster but they will say. And they will say, you have not to

:42:40.:42:51.

vote on our issues. The SNP have a better solution than Labour adopted.

:42:52.:42:57.

There has to be a UK element, an English element to devolution. You

:42:58.:43:04.

would see how much work would be needed to see how to make that

:43:05.:43:08.

viable at this stage. John Redwood is talking about an English

:43:09.:43:11.

parliament, about Westminster sitting as an English Parliament. I

:43:12.:43:17.

am sure there are huge regional interests in England raised by this

:43:18.:43:23.

debate. They will say, what about devolution to the north-east, the

:43:24.:43:29.

North East, the south-west? The big cities of the North, that is where

:43:30.:43:34.

the that amount is coming from most. Let's go back to Jo Coburn.

:43:35.:43:42.

The Nationalist and Wales next week's referendum will reinvigorate

:43:43.:43:43.

their campaign for greater self-determination. They account for

:43:44.:43:54.

about 35% of the UK population. The India stem of her holding their

:43:55.:43:58.

conference this" believe it is the moment for England to go it alone.

:43:59.:44:02.

-- conference this weekend and they believe.

:44:03.:44:11.

We do look very fondly on the idea of being the equivalent of the SNP.

:44:12.:44:17.

The difference, I suppose, is that English nationalism is not one to be

:44:18.:44:20.

the same as Scottish or Welsh or Irish nationalism. -- not going to

:44:21.:44:24.

be the same. We are individual to England. I wouldn't be presumptuous

:44:25.:44:33.

enough to say I am the same as Alex Salmond. Until recently partly --

:44:34.:44:38.

party believed in a federal UK and you think it should be dissolved.

:44:39.:44:43.

What has changed? We have come to the view that there is not good to

:44:44.:44:46.

be a federal UK that looks after England's interests. Today we have

:44:47.:44:51.

got Nick Clegg trying to trot out yet another version of regional eyes

:44:52.:45:03.

Asian for England -- regionalisation for England. It is all part of a

:45:04.:45:07.

Russian proposal to persuade people in need and not to vote yes in a

:45:08.:45:12.

week's time. -- rushed proposal. Would you be the recipient, your

:45:13.:45:16.

party would be the recipient, of votes from disillusioned English

:45:17.:45:21.

voters who feel not enough is being done whichever way the Scots vote?

:45:22.:45:23.

Will those go to UKIP? I think they will come to us, UKIP

:45:24.:45:36.

is getting a proportion of that boat because people have not clearly

:45:37.:45:40.

thought through that UKIP is a British Nationalist party and not an

:45:41.:45:45.

English nationalist party. You said BNP supporters are joining

:45:46.:45:49.

EU to become an electorally credible party. What did you mean?

:45:50.:45:55.

What we were saying, really, it is we welcome genuine converts to

:45:56.:46:00.

English nationalism wherever they come from. Our party has Members who

:46:01.:46:09.

come from the left and the right. We are simply a new party.

:46:10.:46:14.

Obviously, when you are new, you are looking to get people to come over

:46:15.:46:18.

as converts to your cause. Is that because you do not appeal to

:46:19.:46:22.

the mainstream? I think we do. In the last

:46:23.:46:28.

elections, most of our candidates, in fact virtually all our

:46:29.:46:33.

candidates, with one or two exceptions, were either previous

:46:34.:46:37.

conservatives or previous Labour Party people.

:46:38.:46:42.

It is just that the BBC focuses on that particular issue rather than on

:46:43.:46:48.

the fact most of our people did not come from there.

:46:49.:46:51.

Is there going to be a moment for your party on September the 19th,

:46:52.:46:56.

the day after the Scottish referendum?

:46:57.:46:59.

I think there will be, with either result.

:47:00.:47:03.

We are now faced with the option of yes, in which case, clearly, the

:47:04.:47:07.

whole question of England becomes that much more urgent which has to

:47:08.:47:12.

be addressed. John Redwood has only just come out from English

:47:13.:47:17.

Parliament, part of this movement to the thought that England has to be

:47:18.:47:21.

properly looked after in the future. If it is no, that no longer means no

:47:22.:47:28.

movement, it means this great surge of devo max. That hugely impacts on

:47:29.:47:34.

the cottages null structure not just for Scotland, but for the whole of

:47:35.:47:40.

the UK. England again needs to be properly represented. The British

:47:41.:47:43.

political establishment is not doing that job.

:47:44.:47:54.

We are joined now by Fiona Hyslop, a Member of the Scottish Polmont, and

:47:55.:48:02.

Cabinet Secretary for Culture. -- Parliament. There are huge

:48:03.:48:06.

uncertainties about the currency, currency union, the nature of EU

:48:07.:48:13.

ownership, NATO ownership. Would it make more sense to accept this offer

:48:14.:48:19.

further devolution including tax powers, so all the uncertainties go.

:48:20.:48:25.

What do you think? There are uncertainties with both.

:48:26.:48:29.

One of the 70s with the yes vote is that we get the Government we vote

:48:30.:48:32.

for. This week, we have seen sheer panic.

:48:33.:48:39.

Westminster parties taking the Scottish people for granted.

:48:40.:48:43.

This isn't a blueprint but a timetable for the powers which have

:48:44.:48:48.

already been announced. They are agreed they will give more

:48:49.:48:53.

power. I accept you can't pin them down. There is a general mood to

:48:54.:48:58.

devolve more power including income tax powers. If you do that, there is

:48:59.:49:02.

no question about the currency. All monetary union. No question about EU

:49:03.:49:11.

membership, pensions or NATO membership. That is guaranteed. If

:49:12.:49:16.

we go your route, none of that is guaranteed. We can use the pound.

:49:17.:49:25.

Not in a monetary union. Are we satisfied with some income tax? We

:49:26.:49:30.

want job-creating powers. None of the towers include corporation tax

:49:31.:49:39.

or employment -- powers. What people really want is making sure it works

:49:40.:49:46.

for the people of Scotland, transforming childcare, job

:49:47.:49:54.

creation. 100% of the powers, not this.

:49:55.:49:56.

The negative effect of not knowing whether Scotland will have which

:49:57.:50:07.

currency, monetary union, there could be far greater job destruction

:50:08.:50:14.

than anything you could do. You are joining in this agenda which

:50:15.:50:18.

is about fear mongering. What is the answer to my question.

:50:19.:50:23.

The uncertainty of the no campaign, can you tell me whether we will be

:50:24.:50:27.

within a referendum. The uncertainty of the no campaign,

:50:28.:50:30.

can you tell me whether we will be within a referendum... Do not answer

:50:31.:50:39.

with a question. You must the job destruction potential is huge.

:50:40.:50:45.

The interests of the UK will be to have a ministry union. You cannot

:50:46.:50:51.

guarantee by the Scotland will be in or out with David Cameron --

:50:52.:50:56.

monetary union. We have a choice of two futures.

:50:57.:51:02.

Some will be uncertain. But that is my point. Big things

:51:03.:51:09.

will be uncertain. People waking up to the wealth of

:51:10.:51:17.

Scotland, GDP per head being more than France without oil...

:51:18.:51:22.

So... We are in a strong position. People want the wealth of Scotland

:51:23.:51:26.

to work for the people of Scotland. You claim this will be a richer

:51:27.:51:32.

country. Why do you fail to win the document, the polls show only 21% of

:51:33.:51:38.

Scots think they would be better off with independents.

:51:39.:51:42.

People are waking up to the realisation of the reality.

:51:43.:51:47.

Not with 21%. In terms of what I am getting back

:51:48.:51:52.

is people are understanding Scotland is a far more wealthy country than

:51:53.:51:55.

they were led to believe. So why only 20%? 50% think there

:51:56.:52:02.

would be worse off. In terms of taxation, we have paid

:52:03.:52:07.

more of our tax to the rest of the UK per head. We pay our own way. It

:52:08.:52:15.

is about time we started to use the wealth of Scotland for the people of

:52:16.:52:19.

Scotland. I am not arguing about that. You

:52:20.:52:24.

haven't been paying more, that is what you said.

:52:25.:52:29.

Over the last five years, we have been paying more than we receive.

:52:30.:52:34.

Aren't people write to wonder whether there would be worse off?

:52:35.:52:40.

The Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds, TSB, Tesco, standard life, all say

:52:41.:52:49.

they will move their headquarters. That is absolutely wrong. They are

:52:50.:52:54.

not saying they are moving. You in the BBC should know. Nick Robinson

:52:55.:53:02.

was told the registration office is not their headquarters. RBS has

:53:03.:53:05.

issued a letter to their staff saying it has no intention of moving

:53:06.:53:09.

their jobs. Yes, it is not their intention.

:53:10.:53:14.

I have constituents who do not want to hear from the BBC scaremongering.

:53:15.:53:21.

You know as well as I do... With registered offices, with

:53:22.:53:26.

headquarters, come the best jobs, the top legal jobs, the top

:53:27.:53:30.

accountancy, the top banking jobs. If you start to lose these jobs, the

:53:31.:53:35.

other things go. If the people running the country are not based in

:53:36.:53:39.

President Oleksandr Turchynov the company are not based in

:53:40.:53:50.

Scotland... -- if the people running the company are not based in

:53:51.:53:55.

Scotland. You could reduce corporation tax to

:53:56.:54:02.

make us competitive, a fuel price regulator, make supermarkets have a

:54:03.:54:08.

lower cost base. This is about the competitive environment you could

:54:09.:54:14.

have with a yes vote. An opportunity where we can have our

:54:15.:54:18.

wealth working for the people of Scotland. Nobody should

:54:19.:54:23.

scaremonger. You don't think it matters major

:54:24.:54:28.

Scottish institutions with the name Scotland in them are worried about

:54:29.:54:32.

the uncertainties of Scottish independence?

:54:33.:54:37.

I used to work for Standard AMSA life, in 1997, they said they were

:54:38.:54:48.

questioning policies -- Standard Life. I want a competitive Scotland.

:54:49.:54:58.

I have seen the comments from Aberdeen asset management saying

:54:59.:55:03.

they believe Scotland can be successful.

:55:04.:55:08.

We live in a global economy. I also know the opportunities we have the

:55:09.:55:13.

Scotland to make the wealth work for Scotland will affect everybody and

:55:14.:55:18.

every sector. Whether it is chemical industries, energy.

:55:19.:55:26.

You have made the NHS a key issue, it would only be safe from cuts from

:55:27.:55:33.

privatisation in an independent Scotland. Under your Government, how

:55:34.:55:41.

much of that would help increase spending in Scotland?

:55:42.:55:44.

There has been a real increase under this Government. How much? A real

:55:45.:55:51.

terms increase. A real terms increase which has helped to

:55:52.:55:56.

protect... According to this data, you have cut

:55:57.:56:01.

health spending in real terms by 1%.

:56:02.:56:04.

No, we have not cut health spending. Whereas the British Government has

:56:05.:56:10.

increased health spending by 4%. We have record numbers of employees

:56:11.:56:14.

in the health service. Why have you cut spending?

:56:15.:56:15.

We have other countries looking Why have you cut spending?

:56:16.:56:21.

us for patient safety. Why have you cut spending?

:56:22.:56:25.

We have free health care, free prescriptions, far more nurses

:56:26.:56:31.

working in Scotland now. Why do the independent figures

:56:32.:56:34.

showed that health spending in real terms is down under your Government?

:56:35.:56:39.

No, the health spending under the Scottish Government has increased in

:56:40.:56:45.

real terms. The risk to the health service is growing privatisation

:56:46.:56:53.

within England. Rolling back the state on the health service will

:56:54.:56:56.

have a long-term effect in terms of the amount of money coming to

:56:57.:57:01.

Scotland. Privatisation, are you saying to me

:57:02.:57:05.

at the Scottish Government has not privatised any health care?

:57:06.:57:12.

We took the help cleaning contracts back in-house.

:57:13.:57:18.

Have you not privatised anything? You have privatised your obesity

:57:19.:57:21.

strategy to Weight Watchers. Less than 1% of the Scottish

:57:22.:57:27.

Government's health budget... Have you privatised that?

:57:28.:57:36.

Have you privatised that or not? If one health board is making a

:57:37.:57:41.

decision, that is up to then. Less than 1% of the Scottish health

:57:42.:57:45.

budget is in private contract. How much does the NHS spent on

:57:46.:57:50.

private subcontractors? In terms of protecting the NHS, we

:57:51.:57:56.

have two disconnect the budget from the Scottish Government from the

:57:57.:57:59.

health budget in the UK. The only way to ensure the growing

:58:00.:58:03.

privatisation in the UK health service does not impact.

:58:04.:58:09.

You spend half ?1 billion on privatised health contractors.

:58:10.:58:12.

Less than 1% of the Scottish budget. The principle is there.

:58:13.:58:17.

When we have had the opportunity to change policies, that is why we took

:58:18.:58:21.

the private health cleaning contracts...

:58:22.:58:28.

You privatised Scottish health functions.

:58:29.:58:32.

We have to make sure we keep it within the principles established,

:58:33.:58:36.

free from the point of delivery. The 2012 health care act in England

:58:37.:58:42.

takes that responsibility away from the UK Health Minister.

:58:43.:58:47.

We retain that responsibility. Would you get the contract back from

:58:48.:58:50.

Weight Watchers? Maybe you need to talk to the health

:58:51.:58:54.

board yourself. That is it for today. We will be

:58:55.:58:59.

back on Sunday and again on Monday, we hope to see you then.

:59:00.:59:01.

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