17/09/2014 Daily Politics


17/09/2014

Jo Coburn with all the latest on the referendum campaign. Andrew Neil reports from Barrhead, East Renfrewshire, where he has been catching up with the Better Together Campaign.


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Transcript


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Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.

:00:39.:00:40.

The polls suggest it's all still to play for

:00:41.:00:43.

as we enter the final 24 hours of the Scottish referendum campaign.

:00:44.:00:48.

Both sides are making their final pushes before the polls

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We'll have the latest analysis on this tightest of races.

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Andrew has been on the ground with No campaigners

:00:58.:01:00.

I most certainly and voting no. I'm voting yes for a fairer society.

:01:01.:01:22.

The Foreign Secretary says the UK will play a leading role

:01:23.:01:25.

in the fight against the so-called Islamic State.

:01:26.:01:27.

We talk to the former Attorney General.

:01:28.:01:29.

But wages still aren't keeping pace with prices.

:01:30.:01:36.

Can the Government do anything about that before the election?

:01:37.:01:44.

All that in the next hour, and with us for the whole programme today is

:01:45.:01:49.

Steve Richards, chief political commentator for the Independent.

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Welcome to the show. Pick a cliche, any cliche -

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too close to call, on a knife edge, The Scottish referendum campaign has

:01:56.:01:59.

entered its final day and commentators are still not

:02:00.:02:04.

calling it for any side. Three new polls last night all

:02:05.:02:07.

showed a slight lead for the No campaign amongst people who have

:02:08.:02:10.

already made up their minds. But, as we'll be discussing

:02:11.:02:13.

in a moment, it's those 'don't knows' who may well hold the key to

:02:14.:02:16.

this contest, and the pollsters have been scratching their heads to work

:02:17.:02:19.

out which way they might go. First though, to get you in the mood

:02:20.:02:24.

for tomorrow night, let's go to Jeremy Vine in the BBC's referendum

:02:25.:02:28.

programme HQ in Glasgow to tell us how the results will come in

:02:29.:02:32.

and how the campaign has developed. Votes are coming in through local

:02:33.:02:42.

council areas, so let me show you the 32 Scottish councils here

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in alphabetical order. What we've done is coloured them

:02:46.:02:47.

in green and red, As the votes come in we will put the

:02:48.:02:49.

percentages on this battle board. But there is an important point to

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make, which is that the biggest So let me re-order this board

:02:55.:02:57.

for you, and you can see it Glasgow and Edinburgh are

:02:58.:03:02.

the biggest, we will watch them Then they get smaller, so Perth

:03:03.:03:05.

and Kinross and Murray there. Orkney, Shetland, the islands there,

:03:06.:03:13.

fewer voters, maybe quicker counts, but less importance in terms of

:03:14.:03:21.

their presence in this referendum. Now,

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the story of the last year has been remarkable and I will illustrate

:03:28.:03:30.

this with the polls we've seen. If you go back a year,

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look at the kind The yeses came back as the year went

:03:35.:03:37.

on, you can see them starting to get closer, but months and months go

:03:38.:03:44.

by and it is basically looking from the polls as if the noes are

:03:45.:03:47.

going to win a comfortable victory. And then look at the drama

:03:48.:03:53.

of the last month, look at what's happened, look at how close the two

:03:54.:03:57.

sides have come to each other. Is there any way

:03:58.:04:00.

of working out which way those Here, we've coloured in a map

:04:01.:04:03.

of Scotland in the colours left An awful lot of SNP yellow,

:04:04.:04:08.

you can see the Labour belt So, you could simply say that SNP

:04:09.:04:27.

areas will go the independent. Blue areas will be against it

:04:28.:04:30.

and then there is Labour red. Crucially, that Labour red part

:04:31.:04:37.

includes Glasgow and Edinburgh, the two biggest councils,

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but there is a complication. They've been told

:04:41.:04:43.

by their leadership to go against, but there are all kinds

:04:44.:04:48.

of factors like social deprivation There are other problems with

:04:49.:04:50.

that simple analysis well. That was a map from the European

:04:51.:04:59.

election, so turnout was low It looks like turnout will be

:05:00.:05:02.

much higher for the referendum. So working out what will happen is

:05:03.:05:07.

really unchartered territory and that is another thing that makes

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this upcoming election so exciting. Well, one man who keeps as close an

:05:12.:05:21.

eye as any on this campaign is Professor John Curtice from

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Strathclyde University - I spoke to I think clearly the message

:05:25.:05:27.

of the opinion polls in line with a number of other polls

:05:28.:05:36.

in the last few days or so is that the no side are favourites, it looks

:05:37.:05:40.

as though they are narrowly ahead. But not so far ahead that we can

:05:41.:05:44.

assume the victory is in the bag. There is also some evidence from

:05:45.:05:47.

these polls that maybe the yes side Certainly, ICM's poll, which can be

:05:48.:05:51.

compared with the last poll they did for the Scotsman in the middle of

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August, that clearly confirms the message of other polls that there

:05:57.:06:00.

has been a substantial swing to yes. They are now putting the yes vote

:06:01.:06:05.

at as high point Survation also picked up

:06:06.:06:08.

a small swing to yes And again there are other increases

:06:09.:06:14.

in support in other polls. So we cannot be sure the yes side is

:06:15.:06:21.

not still making a bit of progress. From the yes side's perspective,

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they must feel these polls are Have we done enough

:06:26.:06:28.

in the last two or three days to But they are still within

:06:29.:06:34.

the margin of error. So, actually,

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it could tell us nothing at all. I think that is

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a slight exaggeration, Jo. Leaving aside

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the possibility that the polls are wrong, and clearly it is possible

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the polls are simply wrong, but if they are roughly right, they

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are telling us this is very close. The polling released today was for

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the most part done over the weekend. Therefore there is the possibility

:06:56.:06:58.

some people have changed their mind today, yesterday or on Monday

:06:59.:07:06.

and that that is one of the reasons What we're being told

:07:07.:07:09.

by these opinion polls - it is close, no seem to have the better

:07:10.:07:16.

chance, but neither side's chance Who is going to benefit

:07:17.:07:19.

from the record high turnout? I think the truth is the level

:07:20.:07:26.

of turnout is not going to make There is some evidence in the

:07:27.:07:30.

opinion polls that those people who did not vote in the 2011 Hollywood

:07:31.:07:34.

election are actually less likely to So to that extent at least, the very

:07:35.:07:37.

high turnout and the fact that some people will vote who don't normally

:07:38.:07:48.

grace the polling stations, that is However,

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it has also been clear from most polling evidence that yes voters are

:07:52.:07:58.

a bit more committed to turning up than no voters are, and that could

:07:59.:08:01.

in a close referendum prove to be But probably what one should say is,

:08:02.:08:05.

if indeed the turnout is anything like what we're expecting,

:08:06.:08:15.

which is certainly higher than 80%, the crucial thing is the turnout

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will be so high that arguments about Or not, it should be accepted by

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both sides as being Scotland's collective judgement on what its

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future should be. There have been reports that some people have said

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yes to polls but are planning to say no. Is there evidence of this? Both

:08:54.:09:01.

sides have theories about why the polls might be wrong. On the no

:09:02.:09:06.

side, it is that people are lying and they are saying they don't know

:09:07.:09:11.

but they are uncomfortable with declaring it. The problem is most

:09:12.:09:15.

polls have been done over the Internet, so you don't have to tell

:09:16.:09:19.

anybody what you are going to vote. The favourite theory on the yes side

:09:20.:09:24.

is the polls are missing crucial people who don't vote, haven't been

:09:25.:09:29.

on the register, and these people will strongly be them. But if the

:09:30.:09:35.

polls are indeed getting the folk who don't normally vote correctly,

:09:36.:09:44.

the votes are not particularly in favour. So you can understand the

:09:45.:09:48.

spinning that is going on on both sides of the campaign.

:09:49.:09:50.

Now, as John Curtice was saying, this campaign has been a slightly

:09:51.:09:57.

tricky one for the pollsters, not least because there isn't a previous

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such referendum to compare it to. To discuss this further, I'm joined by

:10:00.:10:03.

Martin Boon from ICM and Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation.

:10:04.:10:09.

Firstly, the people who don't know. And also those who did not vote in

:10:10.:10:19.

the last Holyrood elections. Why did that make it difficult for

:10:20.:10:23.

pollsters? Well, we don't know anything about them. Critical to the

:10:24.:10:26.

projection of the polls is the extent to which we can be confident

:10:27.:10:30.

about the reported behaviour of people we don't know, people who did

:10:31.:10:35.

not vote in the last election in 2011. This will be an unprecedented

:10:36.:10:40.

turnout. By implication, we will perhaps have a quarter of our sample

:10:41.:10:45.

about whom we do not have any record. Typically, in a general

:10:46.:10:50.

election poll, we would be able to tie their behaviour back to what we

:10:51.:10:57.

know they did before. But since many people have not voted before, we do

:10:58.:10:59.

not know enough about them. If these people were built in solidly to

:11:00.:11:03.

samples and they are telling us the truth, then we should be OK. There

:11:04.:11:09.

does not seem to be a huge impact either way. It is just a black hole

:11:10.:11:14.

we need to fill. What sort of numbers are we talking about? When

:11:15.:11:22.

the polls are that close, 48-52, several thousand voters, it could

:11:23.:11:25.

result in a different outcome on the night. Conceivably. The last

:11:26.:11:33.

telephone poll we conducted for the Better Together campaign, the number

:11:34.:11:37.

of people who did not know was as low as 9%. When we try to squeeze

:11:38.:11:45.

those people for an answer, those voters did not break significantly

:11:46.:11:52.

either way. So I'm not of the view there is a big pool of undecided

:11:53.:11:56.

voters ready to swing in one direction or the other. So this idea

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there is a silent majority of people who don't know who will vote no but

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haven't said so far all I've been under pressure to say yes, is that

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emit? No, that could well be a valid argument. Scottish people are

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patriotic, it is difficult to say I'm proud of Scotland but I also

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appreciate the benefits of staying in the UK. That could potentially

:12:23.:12:25.

carry some social embarrassment, so it could be a factor. If there is

:12:26.:12:31.

spiral of silence around this, feeling people are not telling you

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the truth when it comes to it? It is ICM's pet theory, which obviously

:12:40.:12:44.

proved true in the 1990s with regard to the Conservatives, when people

:12:45.:12:49.

were reluctant to admit they were still conservative voters. In

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Scotland, the extent to which people are put off saying they potentially

:12:53.:12:56.

will vote no because they feel there is an undesirable social

:12:57.:13:02.

relationship there, that is not going to be picked up in the online

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poll. Where there is a bit of evidence I've conducted privately,

:13:10.:13:14.

I've seen a greater level of reluctance among people who tell us

:13:15.:13:18.

they will vote no in terms of admitting that fact. In a referendum

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which is so close to 50-50, that could be a deciding factor. I wish I

:13:25.:13:27.

had a bit more evidence to underpin it. What is your reaction now after

:13:28.:13:32.

the poll which put the yes campaign ahead? I can only speak to our own

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figures. We conducted 13 polls since February, 12 online and one

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telephone. Yes has between act has been between 45 and 48. We've really

:13:48.:13:59.

not seen that much movement since February. So there is a lot of

:14:00.:14:06.

narrative out there in the media demanding low-priced Internet polls.

:14:07.:14:12.

In some sense, the media are getting what the media want, which is

:14:13.:14:16.

something to talk about. Steve, there has been a huge amount of

:14:17.:14:24.

pressure and demand for these polls. Yes, I think it has been quite

:14:25.:14:30.

difficult. I was up in Edinburgh the August before last and I bumped into

:14:31.:14:34.

a pollster friend of mine who said the data is absolutely different

:14:35.:14:45.

notes and -- definitive, it will be a no vote, the only question is the

:14:46.:14:50.

margin by which the no campaign will win. Recently, I phoned him up to

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see what he thought. He said he'd never seen a swing like it. So it

:14:59.:15:04.

clearly has been a difficult one to track. One of the problems is there

:15:05.:15:13.

just are not enough people in Scotland to create a decent sample

:15:14.:15:20.

frame from which to draw from. If there was an average panel size of

:15:21.:15:23.

people, a large one might be 2000 people. You've got the same people

:15:24.:15:33.

in Scotland being pulled over and over again, probably creating a

:15:34.:15:34.

self-selecting bias. So is telephone polling more

:15:35.:15:48.

reliable? As the representative of ICM I would have to say that as we

:15:49.:15:53.

are the last telephone poll company still standing! We are still

:15:54.:16:02.

standing. The telephone methodology, the online methodology and a face

:16:03.:16:08.

poll said the same thing. If there is a problem with any methodology,

:16:09.:16:13.

it is a problem we are all facing and all methodologies. It is a

:16:14.:16:17.

problem that the polls are coalescing above the 50% mark for

:16:18.:16:21.

No. I do not understand why there have not been more which have

:16:22.:16:26.

dropped below 50. There is so much going on with this referendum that I

:16:27.:16:30.

do not understand. Take us through your last two polls. The Guardian on

:16:31.:16:39.

Friday was 51% for No. The latest one in the Scotsman was 52% for No.

:16:40.:16:44.

Clearly they are saying the same thing, that No have the edge but it

:16:45.:16:49.

could still be too close to call. The methodologies... What about the

:16:50.:16:57.

Sunday Telegraph poll? That used a slightly different methodology. It

:16:58.:17:03.

had 54% for Yeses. How do you explain that difference? In a tight

:17:04.:17:11.

race, that is a massive difference? Every polling company will

:17:12.:17:15.

experience a rogue from time to time. I would like to airbrush it

:17:16.:17:20.

from history because it does not fit the pattern. Because we did it

:17:21.:17:25.

differently, that underpins why we were slightly different on that one.

:17:26.:17:30.

How likely do you think it is, Damian, that the result will be

:17:31.:17:40.

different to the polls? Our methodology is similar to Martin's.

:17:41.:17:45.

It is the telephone. The ability to have a large enough online panel to

:17:46.:17:52.

not keep asking the same people over and over again, the way we conducted

:17:53.:17:57.

our last poll, we took a representative sample of individual

:17:58.:18:01.

records, then called those people, then adjusted those people back to

:18:02.:18:04.

what are the demographics of Scotland and that showed 54% for the

:18:05.:18:11.

No campaign. We are not having a social embarrassment issue as far as

:18:12.:18:16.

I am concerned! Would you like to bet? I would not like to bet on this

:18:17.:18:22.

one. The polls are nearly almost right these days. We must work on

:18:23.:18:26.

the assumption that that is coalescing around a No win but I

:18:27.:18:31.

would not put money on it. Thank you, gentlemen, we will find out

:18:32.:18:33.

soon enough. Now, you may remember that yesterday

:18:34.:18:36.

Andrew was with Nicola Sturgeon out on the Yes campaign trail

:18:37.:18:39.

in Hamilton. I've still not received

:18:40.:18:41.

a post card or any shortbread. Well,

:18:42.:18:43.

today he's out with the No campaign, with Jim Murphy in Barrhead in his

:18:44.:18:45.

constituency of East Renfrewnshire. On the final day of this long

:18:46.:19:09.

referendum campaign, the likelihood is that it Aberdeen will vote No,

:19:10.:19:16.

Dundee will vote Yeses, this leaves the West of Scotland and this

:19:17.:19:21.

greater Glasgow area where many Scots live, the key battle ground

:19:22.:19:25.

which could determine the result. In the battle ground, the fight is for

:19:26.:19:29.

Labour to convince its core vote to stick with the union.

:19:30.:19:37.

The Better Together campaign has been criticised for not being vocal

:19:38.:19:45.

enough, for lacking passion. Jim Murphy, the Labour MP in this area

:19:46.:19:50.

has been a one-man campaign to put that right. He has gone up and down

:19:51.:19:55.

the country with his Irn-Bru crate on which he stands and speaks and

:19:56.:20:08.

canvases all over the place. Are you voting for his side? I certainly am.

:20:09.:20:14.

We want to stay the same and not change. Do you think that is how

:20:15.:20:21.

people in areas like this feel? I think it is maybe 50-50. You think

:20:22.:20:28.

it is close? Yes. Are you in danger of losing the

:20:29.:20:34.

traditional Labour vote? I do not think so. Increasingly, some of the

:20:35.:20:41.

Labour voters gave the SNP the benefit of the doubt a couple of

:20:42.:20:45.

weeks ago and looked at them and they are now shrouded in doubt. When

:20:46.:20:50.

we examined what they were proposing, no clarity on the pound

:20:51.:20:54.

or the pensions, I think there is a move back to us among Labour voters.

:20:55.:21:01.

How much faith you have in the idea of the silent No vote. There are a

:21:02.:21:10.

lot of voters the polls are not picking up? I think if this was a

:21:11.:21:15.

referendum about posters in Windows, the Yes campaign would win. They

:21:16.:21:20.

have more posters in the windows but Windows do not vote. There is a

:21:21.:21:24.

quite patriotically John to waiting on Thursday will stand up and be

:21:25.:21:30.

counted and vote No in a quiet, dignified way -- a patriotic

:21:31.:21:38.

majority. How are you going to vote on Thursday? I know how I am going

:21:39.:21:44.

to vote, I do not want to say on the television. I have decided. All I

:21:45.:21:50.

can say is the response we have got today is fantastic. We are getting a

:21:51.:21:56.

lot of people saying no thanks. Vote yes for a fairer society. We have a

:21:57.:22:01.

lot of money which can go to people rather than investments. The polls

:22:02.:22:06.

have been tight, tight enough to make predictions dangerous. What

:22:07.:22:12.

makes this even more unpredictable is the existence of people in two

:22:13.:22:16.

groups. Those living in socially deprived areas. They may not have

:22:17.:22:23.

voted for many years. The Yes campaign think they will come out

:22:24.:22:26.

for independence. On the other side, the silent Nos. They have made

:22:27.:22:31.

up their mind but they are not telling anybody about it. The

:22:32.:22:36.

problem is, politicians, pundits and pollsters have no idea how big

:22:37.:22:41.

either group is which means we have no idea how this will pan out until

:22:42.:22:47.

these results start coming in in the early hours of Friday morning.

:22:48.:22:53.

I am delighted to say our new young reporter joins us from Aberdeen.

:22:54.:22:59.

Andrew, welcome. It is a privilege to be on the same show as you! You

:23:00.:23:08.

have been on the campaign trail for nearly a week in Scotland. Give us a

:23:09.:23:13.

feel. Tell us how it has felt for you wandering around the streets on

:23:14.:23:18.

both sides? As the campaign polls have got closer and there is a sense

:23:19.:23:22.

of momentum behind the Yes campaign and No becoming more defensive, it

:23:23.:23:29.

has got more frenetic, hectic, passionate and emotional on both

:23:30.:23:33.

sides and at times nasty as well. There is a false balance to say

:23:34.:23:37.

there is nasty on both sides, more nasty nurse has come from the Yes

:23:38.:23:43.

campaign, from a small minority. I have been in Edinburgh, Paisley,

:23:44.:23:50.

Glasgow, bar head, Hamilton with the Yes and the No. Everywhere I have

:23:51.:23:56.

gone I have been met with friendliness, politeness, engagement

:23:57.:23:59.

and everybody wants to talk about it coming up and no sense of threat or

:24:00.:24:04.

nasty nurse. There has been some but it is by no means everywhere.

:24:05.:24:08.

Everywhere I went people wanted to simply talk about it and get

:24:09.:24:12.

engaged. We have a lot of Daily Politics viewers in this campaign.

:24:13.:24:18.

I'm glad to hear it. What about this idea that people are not saying how

:24:19.:24:21.

they will vote. When you say people are keen to talk to you at and

:24:22.:24:26.

engage, are they not telling you how they will vote apart from the ones

:24:27.:24:30.

in the film? Most people are telling us. There is still a sizeable chunk

:24:31.:24:36.

of people who are yet to make up their minds. The problem is, we are

:24:37.:24:40.

dealing with the concept here which we cannot measure. We do not know

:24:41.:24:45.

how many of these people fall into the silent No, just as we do not

:24:46.:24:49.

know how many of these are lapsed Labour voters living in pretty bad

:24:50.:24:54.

social conditions who will turn out for Yes. By definition, if they are

:24:55.:24:58.

not going to tell you, we do not know. The pollsters have struggled.

:24:59.:25:04.

Commentators like me have struggled. The politicians have struggled to

:25:05.:25:09.

reach these people. It is what makes this election even more

:25:10.:25:12.

unpredictable than the polls are suggesting. You are in Aberdeen, a

:25:13.:25:17.

key battle ground, how is it splitting up there? The hinterland

:25:18.:25:23.

of Aberdeen is Alex Salmond territory. Nationalism is very

:25:24.:25:30.

strong in the counterparts -- County parts of this area. But Aberdeen is

:25:31.:25:35.

the richest city in Britain. The un employment rate is the lowest of any

:25:36.:25:42.

city in Britain. The per capita incomes are highest. When you add

:25:43.:25:47.

all these things together, it is likely that Aberdeen will be in the

:25:48.:25:52.

No camp. But I would put it this way, if on the night we discover

:25:53.:25:56.

Aberdeen is in the Yes camp, I think you can be pretty sure that this

:25:57.:26:01.

country is heading for independence. Interesting. That is

:26:02.:26:05.

one of many to watch on the night. Prediction time, who will win? The

:26:06.:26:10.

No no, I am not going to do it. It is too close. There is no point in

:26:11.:26:17.

making things up. This has been a wake-up call for commentators as

:26:18.:26:22.

well as the pollsters. This has been unlike any campaign we have ever

:26:23.:26:26.

covered before. I was having dinner one night and there was a rather

:26:27.:26:30.

noisy hen party going on. They were all dressed up in costumes and it

:26:31.:26:38.

suddenly went quiet. I said, why are they now talking among themselves

:26:39.:26:42.

rather than shouting and screaming and laughing and joking? They said,

:26:43.:26:45.

they are talking about the referendum and how to vote. That is

:26:46.:26:51.

how deep it has gone into Scottish society. It is serious stuff.

:26:52.:26:56.

Andrew, enjoy your final hours are up in Scotland.

:26:57.:27:03.

Steve, picking up on that. There have been reports of intimidation.

:27:04.:27:08.

Is that the general feeling you have been getting that in the closing

:27:09.:27:12.

stages it has become so tense that the level of abuse and intimidation

:27:13.:27:17.

on both sides has gone up? Clearly, there has been a bit. We have seen

:27:18.:27:22.

the pictures. Ed Miliband yesterday had to stop his tour of a shopping

:27:23.:27:26.

centre and so on. It could be that that is one of the sub themes

:27:27.:27:31.

emerging over the next 48 hours, that there could be more of that,

:27:32.:27:36.

because it is so intense and passionate and close. I do not think

:27:37.:27:40.

that is the overriding feeling, as Andrew suggested himself, that the

:27:41.:27:45.

overriding sense is one of intense engagement and politics coming

:27:46.:28:01.

alive, exposing the complete myth that does the rounds that politics

:28:02.:28:03.

is boring and dull. It clearly is not. It just has to be presented

:28:04.:28:06.

certain ways and people up it up, as you and I lap it up normally. That

:28:07.:28:08.

is positive and exciting. The problem with that argument is, the

:28:09.:28:12.

debate they are having is, how they are ruled. It is a big debate but it

:28:13.:28:17.

is not how you run the NHS, how you raise money. Those problems are

:28:18.:28:24.

really thorny and involve compromises and working things

:28:25.:28:29.

through. For example, all those voting yes will not agree on all of

:28:30.:28:34.

those kind of issues. They are the nitty-gritty of politics. Just

:28:35.:28:40.

briefly, what about healing after this? It has been divisive. The

:28:41.:28:45.

country looks as if it will be split. How do you heal the divisions

:28:46.:28:51.

at community level afterwards? I do not think they will be. If there is

:28:52.:28:56.

a close No vote, there will be calls for another referendum quite

:28:57.:29:01.

quickly. If the Conservatives win at Westminster and hold a referendum on

:29:02.:29:04.

Europe and we vote to pull out, Scotland will say, we want a

:29:05.:29:09.

referendum to have independence to stay in. That is in two years time.

:29:10.:29:17.

I think the healing thing, it will not happen. This issue is out and

:29:18.:29:19.

incidentally, now will apply big-time to England, Wales and

:29:20.:29:25.

Northern Ireland. We are in for a pretty for Cannock period in British

:29:26.:29:29.

politics. Thank you -- volcanic. What about Ed Miliband and labour?

:29:30.:29:43.

Many have blamed the party for the recent collapse in support for the

:29:44.:29:46.

Better Together campaign. Some suggest the situation is the result

:29:47.:29:50.

of 20 years of complacency and failure in Scotland. Labour has been

:29:51.:29:55.

struggling in Scotland for a number of years. In 2011, they let a big

:29:56.:30:01.

lead in the polls slip ahead of parliamentary elections before

:30:02.:30:05.

losing to the SNP in a landslide. According to one recent poll, 42% of

:30:06.:30:12.

Scots who voted in the 2010 election are minded to vote yes to

:30:13.:30:16.

independence on Thursday. The national polls have also tightened

:30:17.:30:20.

for Labour in recent days. Earlier this week, one had the party neck

:30:21.:30:26.

and neck with the Tories. Of more concern for the party is Ed

:30:27.:30:30.

Miliband's personal approval rating, which remained significantly behind

:30:31.:30:38.

Cameron's on 29%. It faces a battle on two fronts. Ed Miliband must make

:30:39.:30:43.

real inroads with middle-class voters in the south-east of England

:30:44.:30:47.

without alienating its core working-class base who are

:30:48.:30:52.

increasingly attracted to the overtures of Nigel Farage and UKIP.

:30:53.:30:58.

Joining me is a former Labour parliamentary candidate, welcome.

:30:59.:31:03.

Where in your view has Scottish Labour gone wrong? The yes campaign

:31:04.:31:10.

has been high on energy and low on detail. Labour needs to match that

:31:11.:31:14.

energy but provide the tell as to how we can create a better country.

:31:15.:31:19.

Do you broadly agree with the argument that the support that has

:31:20.:31:23.

been bleeding from Labour in Scotland to SNP is as a result of

:31:24.:31:28.

Labour complacency or that they have not been left wing enough in the

:31:29.:31:34.

eyes of Scottish voters? It certainly seems people who voted

:31:35.:31:37.

Labour in the past are considering voting yes and people who have never

:31:38.:31:42.

voted before are considering voting yes. All of these are people Labour

:31:43.:31:46.

should be reaching out to. Who do you blame? I think it is a long-term

:31:47.:31:51.

issue, nobody is personally to blame. Not the Scottish Labour

:31:52.:31:57.

figures who've come down to Westminster? They have let their

:31:58.:32:03.

Scottish heartlands go. You see similar issues in the North of

:32:04.:32:09.

England in other Labour strongholds, where Labour's presents

:32:10.:32:13.

is not as dynamic as we would like it to be. This is a challenge for

:32:14.:32:19.

the party as a whole. You talk about energy, is it about policy as well?

:32:20.:32:25.

I think what has happened with the slip of support in both directions

:32:26.:32:31.

is that Labour is not providing a significant battle for hope and a

:32:32.:32:34.

better tomorrow for the country. It has two provide that. There is a

:32:35.:32:41.

tacit admission that they have failed in Scotland. TUC that, has

:32:42.:32:45.

there been a failure or is it just underestimating the power of the yes

:32:46.:32:54.

campaign linked to SNP? Well, even if it is an underestimation, that is

:32:55.:33:00.

a failure as well. It is a decline of both the big parties. The

:33:01.:33:05.

Conservatives remain toxic in Scotland and the North of England,

:33:06.:33:09.

David Cameron has not modernise the party so it has become acceptable in

:33:10.:33:14.

these places. Very senior figures in the Labour Party who are campaigning

:33:15.:33:18.

in Scotland tell me that what they get on the doorstep is that the

:33:19.:33:27.

Labour government was no different from the Tory government.

:33:28.:33:31.

Objectively, that is not the case, you can list many differences, but

:33:32.:33:35.

that is the perception. So they have been complacent. But you highlight

:33:36.:33:44.

the dilemma - how do Miliband and co-give a message that appeals both

:33:45.:33:50.

to the south of England and the North? There are answers, but they

:33:51.:33:54.

have not answered that because of Scotland. Tony Blair always thought

:33:55.:34:01.

devolution was how it might end up, and that if you give away that much

:34:02.:34:06.

power, you get closer to independence, you don't blunt the

:34:07.:34:11.

SNP. Was he right? Well, evidently that is the case! I remember people

:34:12.:34:16.

telling me in 1997 when the holder pollution thing kicked off, whatever

:34:17.:34:21.

else happens, at least we kill off Alex Salmond. Anterior is running

:34:22.:34:31.

Scotland. -- and here he is. But they had no choice in 1997, they had

:34:32.:34:37.

to do something. If they'd gone into that election and offered nothing to

:34:38.:34:42.

Scotland, there would then it all to reaction anyway. Clearly, that

:34:43.:34:49.

devolution settlement has triggered the events which led to this. As did

:34:50.:34:56.

the election of a government in 2010 which was obsessed with public

:34:57.:35:00.

sector reform, which changed things in England when Scotland was in a

:35:01.:35:04.

completely different place. That has widened the gap between the two.

:35:05.:35:09.

Steve Richards says there is a perception in Scotland the two

:35:10.:35:12.

parties are similar. You could argue Labour has signed up to the first

:35:13.:35:16.

year of spending commitments, that there will not be wage rises for

:35:17.:35:20.

public sector workers. These are things that could let Scottish

:35:21.:35:24.

voters think, well, what is the difference? Did they need to be more

:35:25.:35:29.

left wing but Scottish voters? Well, Steve also said the reality

:35:30.:35:37.

did not conform to that. Getting rid of zero hours contracts, a higher

:35:38.:35:46.

living wage for workers. But that message has not got across. Has it

:35:47.:35:50.

been right to have Gordon Brown painted as the saviour of the

:35:51.:35:53.

union? Was Alistair Darling the right person to lead the campaign? I

:35:54.:35:59.

think Gordon Brown and Jim Murphy have done a great job. Do you

:36:00.:36:06.

agree? Listening yesterday to Gordon Brown, former Prime Minister, a

:36:07.:36:11.

backbench MP, offering all sorts of promises on more powers on a mandate

:36:12.:36:15.

he doesn't really have, was that really the right thing by Labour to

:36:16.:36:20.

do, never mind the Prime Minister? I think bringing Gordon Brown to the

:36:21.:36:24.

fore of the campaign was a smart move. Round has a sense of Scotland

:36:25.:36:33.

and Scottish politics and what works which has always been formidable.

:36:34.:36:38.

John Curtis told me in an interview earlier this year that Brown, more

:36:39.:36:43.

than anyone else on that side of the argument, had framed a message

:36:44.:36:46.

effectively targeting the don't knows in Scotland. So I think it has

:36:47.:36:54.

made a difference. To your broader point, Labour have emphatically got

:36:55.:36:57.

a problem with the way the perceived in Scotland. I know that because

:36:58.:37:02.

they are telling me that. And in northern towns as well. How big a

:37:03.:37:06.

problem is it, briefly, in northern towns? It is a problem but I think

:37:07.:37:15.

with hard work, Labour can change it. Why haven't they done so until

:37:16.:37:20.

now? I think there are lots of constituencies where you have

:37:21.:37:23.

hard-working, local MPs who really count of those perceptions.

:37:24.:37:26.

More good news on the economy for the government today with the number

:37:27.:37:29.

of people in employment rising by 74,000 and unemployment down to

:37:30.:37:32.

The number of people claiming Job Seekers Allowance has also

:37:33.:37:37.

fallen below 1 million for the first time in six years.

:37:38.:37:41.

Wages however are still failing to keep pace with inflation and rose

:37:42.:37:44.

Earlier I spoke to work and pensions minister Mark Harper and put it to

:37:45.:37:50.

him that people aren't feeling the benefits of economic growth...

:37:51.:37:55.

Of course it's the case people are not going to

:37:56.:37:58.

feel better off until wages grow faster, but it is about making sure

:37:59.:38:01.

We want jobs to be growing, which they are.

:38:02.:38:06.

I also think it is worth highlighting today that the figures

:38:07.:38:09.

are good in all parts of the United Kingdom, including in Scotland.

:38:10.:38:13.

The employment rate in Scotland is higher than

:38:14.:38:17.

the rest of the UK, unemployment is lower, youth unemployment is low

:38:18.:38:20.

It's a big contrast if you look at the numbers in Ireland, say, where

:38:21.:38:26.

Scotland has recovered so much better from the economic crash.

:38:27.:38:29.

It just goes to show we are better economically together, which I think

:38:30.:38:35.

people in Scotland will bear in mind when they vote tomorrow.

:38:36.:38:39.

Are you worried by the numbers of people who are in low paid

:38:40.:38:42.

I think if you look at some of the breakdowns,

:38:43.:38:49.

one thing which is interesting is if you look at part-time work,

:38:50.:38:53.

particularly women in part-time work, 90% of those people wanted to

:38:54.:38:56.

Of course, everyone would like to be paid more, but people are

:38:57.:39:04.

generally in part-time work because they want the flexibility.

:39:05.:39:06.

The number of people who want full-time work but can't find it

:39:07.:39:10.

So things are going in the right direction.

:39:11.:39:19.

Is everything perfect? No, of course it isn't.

:39:20.:39:21.

We still have some way to go to recover from what was

:39:22.:39:24.

the deepest recession we've had, but these figures are positive.

:39:25.:39:27.

I suggest it is more than some way to go, because wages have been

:39:28.:39:31.

behind inflation now for several years, and the gap that has

:39:32.:39:33.

It will take an awful long time, much longer than predicted,

:39:34.:39:43.

By 2015, will you be able to stand there

:39:44.:39:49.

and say, you are feeling better off now than you were in 2010?

:39:50.:39:53.

I think the economy is immeasurably better than was when we came

:39:54.:39:56.

We've reduced the deficit, we've seen 2.1 million more

:39:57.:39:58.

Wages are rising faster in the private sector.

:39:59.:40:04.

Things are not perfect and we still have a long way to go.

:40:05.:40:11.

That is one reason actually people next year at the general election

:40:12.:40:16.

need to focus on voting for a Conservative government to continue

:40:17.:40:20.

this growth and not put it at risk by going back to the poor economic

:40:21.:40:24.

policies we saw under the last Labour government.

:40:25.:40:28.

But you are not reaping the benefits of that economic growth,

:40:29.:40:31.

electorally. That's what many Tory MPs feel.

:40:32.:40:33.

Also, if you continue along a low paid, unskilled

:40:34.:40:37.

labour force entering the market, which you have argued,

:40:38.:40:40.

you are not going to pay that deficit down further.

:40:41.:40:45.

The rate at which you pay it down will slow,

:40:46.:40:47.

the deficit will not reduce in the way you want it because you are not

:40:48.:40:51.

getting the tax receipts because of this low paid, unskilled economy.

:40:52.:40:54.

It is a third lower than when we came to office in 2010.

:40:55.:41:04.

I don't think you should decry the fact that we are successfully

:41:05.:41:08.

getting into work hundreds of thousands of people who were not

:41:09.:41:10.

Yes, some of them may be starting off in entry-level positions,

:41:11.:41:16.

but you get an entry-level job, then you can gain more skills

:41:17.:41:19.

It is one reason we are rolling out Universal Credit.

:41:20.:41:24.

It will always pay to take more hours at work

:41:25.:41:27.

One of the problems is the productivity

:41:28.:41:37.

Even with these people coming in at whatever level they enter

:41:38.:41:44.

the jobs market, the productivity levels are low

:41:45.:41:46.

and there is no sign or indication of how and when they will improve.

:41:47.:41:51.

Well, there is a dispute about how productivity levels are measured.

:41:52.:41:54.

I've been clear these figures are very positive and they

:41:55.:41:57.

They are positive across all parts of the UK.

:41:58.:42:07.

And they should be welcomed by people.

:42:08.:42:09.

They are positive across all parts of the UK.

:42:10.:42:13.

I'm joined now by economics editor at The Economist, Richard Davies.

:42:14.:42:21.

There are two conflicting views about how well the economy is doing.

:42:22.:42:28.

Do you subscribe to the macro picture or the 1 broadly represented

:42:29.:42:31.

by Labour which says people are not feeling it in their pockets? I think

:42:32.:42:37.

he is right. On the big picture, when you look abroad, unemployment

:42:38.:42:43.

in the US is falling but it is falling because people are giving up

:42:44.:42:48.

and leaving the workforce. So on the international picture, that picture

:42:49.:43:00.

is correct. But where he is wrong is the productivity puzzle. There is no

:43:01.:43:04.

real debate. The shortfall in productivity when compared to the

:43:05.:43:09.

precrisis trend is about 12 to 14%. Maybe 2% of that is Miss measured.

:43:10.:43:18.

The rest is a huge gap. It means the British worker power is producing

:43:19.:43:21.

less output, and because of that, wages, as you correctly put it to

:43:22.:43:27.

him, have stagnated. What is the prognosis for the future? In the

:43:28.:43:34.

short term, it is instructive to look at Bacon sees. In the data

:43:35.:43:39.

release we had today, there were around 50,000 jobs in manufacturing.

:43:40.:43:43.

That is great, because the average weekly wage in manufacturing is

:43:44.:43:49.

high, around ?550. There were ten times more jobs in the services

:43:50.:43:53.

sector, many in restaurants and hotels. Those are lower paid jobs

:43:54.:43:57.

which indicates wages are not going to pick up much. This feeds into

:43:58.:44:01.

your question about the fiscal puzzle. He was a bit unclear on

:44:02.:44:07.

that. Personal income tax receipts that are flowing to the Exchequer

:44:08.:44:11.

are falling and the reason they are falling is because of this generous

:44:12.:44:16.

increase in the amount you are in tax-free. It was ?6,000 five years

:44:17.:44:22.

ago, it has gone up to ?10,000. That is great for people on low pay. The

:44:23.:44:26.

problem is, there are so many people earning a bit more than that ?10,000

:44:27.:44:32.

but the deficit is not coming down as quickly as the Conservative Party

:44:33.:44:37.

hoped. Interest rates, that is the big debate between now and the

:44:38.:44:41.

election. Do you expect them to go up before the election? There is a

:44:42.:44:50.

possibility they might go up by 25 basis points. Very little

:44:51.:44:53.

possibility of them going much higher than that. Briefly, that is

:44:54.:44:57.

because of a big surplus in the labour market. We still have 2

:44:58.:45:03.

million people unemployed, 6% unemployed. That can probably go

:45:04.:45:07.

down to 5% before we start to see wage pressure. That wage pressure is

:45:08.:45:11.

what the Bank of England will be really looking at. The problem is

:45:12.:45:19.

the political message. It looks as though growth will continue, Britain

:45:20.:45:20.

racing ahead. What has Labour said? As you have implied, in both your

:45:21.:45:40.

discussions on this, there are still high levels of insecurity and wages

:45:41.:45:46.

that are relatively low compared to price inflation and so on. In

:45:47.:45:50.

theory, they have still got material to go. I think the problem is the

:45:51.:45:57.

recent past witches and a motive part of British politics and I

:45:58.:46:03.

gather is strong in opinion polls -- the recent past which is an emotive

:46:04.:46:12.

part of British politics. Miliband and Ed Balls' response has been to

:46:13.:46:20.

not talk about the recent past and they have left the space open for

:46:21.:46:24.

George Osborne to get the message across which the polls are saying is

:46:25.:46:31.

powerful. It is a bit like they used to play on the Winter of discontent

:46:32.:46:36.

which happened in 1979 for years and years after with great force. Unless

:46:37.:46:41.

there is a response and an effective response, the two rain is there.

:46:42.:46:44.

Thank you. Following the beheading of British

:46:45.:46:48.

aid worker David Haines by Islamic State jihadis, military intervention

:46:49.:46:50.

against IS looks increasingly likely but it's still unclear where that

:46:51.:46:52.

intervention will take place. Will airstrikes be confined to Iraq

:46:53.:46:57.

or will British and American forces There was confusion last week when

:46:58.:47:10.

the Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond appeared to rule that out but was

:47:11.:47:14.

then corrected by Downing Street. Here's what Foreign Secretary Philip

:47:15.:47:15.

Hammond had to say on the matter after a meeting of

:47:16.:47:18.

foreign leaders in Paris on Monday. I am sorry if I created confusion

:47:19.:47:27.

last Thursday. I gave the position in relation to a strike but what

:47:28.:47:32.

people are talking about here is the possibility that there may be some

:47:33.:47:36.

action against Isil in Syria at some point in the future. I have said

:47:37.:47:41.

already in parliament that would be an order of magnitude more difficult

:47:42.:47:49.

than air strikes in Iraq for many reasons, legal and technical. We

:47:50.:47:54.

have not ruled it out. We have not made a final decision yet. I have

:47:55.:47:59.

said that Britain is clear that it will play a leading role in this

:48:00.:48:04.

coalition. The Foreign Secretary, Philip Hammond.

:48:05.:48:06.

There are question marks over the legality of military action

:48:07.:48:10.

With me to discuss these is Dominic Grieve who was

:48:11.:48:14.

the government's Attorney General up until July of this year.

:48:15.:48:18.

Welcome to the Daily Politics. David Cameron says we would not need the

:48:19.:48:23.

permission of President Assad to launch air strikes in Syria. Do you

:48:24.:48:31.

agree? That is probably correct. If the decisions are right in relation

:48:32.:48:38.

to the necessity to protect the population from gross mistreatment

:48:39.:48:44.

or genocide which IS seems to be perpetrating, then under the

:48:45.:48:48.

international law it would be possible to do that. You have said

:48:49.:48:53.

there is a human rights argument, that is what was used in the Balkans

:48:54.:48:58.

and Kosovo by Tony Blair for that intervention. But is it wrong to say

:48:59.:49:06.

the Assad regime is illegitimate and that would provide a sound basis for

:49:07.:49:13.

bombing ices in Syria. That is not how I understood what the Prime

:49:14.:49:18.

Minister was saying. Normally you take action on behalf of the

:49:19.:49:24.

government of that country but the way Syria has been behaving has been

:49:25.:49:29.

so bad. The government does not wish to cooperate with such a regime. In

:49:30.:49:34.

those circumstances, cooperation with the Syrian regime would I think

:49:35.:49:39.

be possible. David Cameron's words word that the Iraqi government is an

:49:40.:49:47.

illegitimate government. Is he wrong to say it is an illegitimate regime?

:49:48.:49:52.

I do not think that is the issue. People can say if they think a

:49:53.:50:00.

regime is legitimate or not. Also, it is clear that it's writ does not

:50:01.:50:04.

run through the country. I think what the Prime Minister was saying

:50:05.:50:11.

is this was a regime with which we could not under any circumstances do

:50:12.:50:16.

business. So it is not a problem for the Prime Minister to ignore

:50:17.:50:19.

President Assad if air strikes were launched in his country? If the

:50:20.:50:24.

correct grounds were there because of humanitarian necessity and the

:50:25.:50:28.

steps that were taken were reasonable, necessary and

:50:29.:50:32.

proportionate to address that, it can be justified under customary

:50:33.:50:35.

international law. Although it is a concept which is challenged in some

:50:36.:50:40.

countries but it is one that the UK has always maintained a close. There

:50:41.:50:55.

are many parts of the world where well-documented atrocities are

:50:56.:50:57.

committed and we have not got involved. Where in your mind do you

:50:58.:50:59.

draw the line between human rights abuses justifying intervention and

:51:00.:51:01.

where it does not? For humanitarian necessity to come in, it has to be

:51:02.:51:04.

more than human rights abuses. The scale has to be such that it

:51:05.:51:07.

justifies taking military action without going to the UN for a

:51:08.:51:13.

resolution or if a UN resolution is impossible. So it has to be a very

:51:14.:51:17.

serious situation. I have to say, from what one has seen that is going

:51:18.:51:23.

on in northern Syria, that is a situation which has risen over a

:51:24.:51:28.

number of times over the past number of years. The ground may be there

:51:29.:51:36.

for taking such action. It has to be aimed at protecting the civilian

:51:37.:51:39.

population. It has not got to be aimed at trying to remove IS, it has

:51:40.:51:44.

to be with one specific purpose in mind which has to be providing

:51:45.:51:49.

protection. What you do has to be able to be justified by showing you

:51:50.:51:54.

are achieving that particular aim. So it would be limited? David

:51:55.:52:01.

Cameron and President Obama have said they need to defeat Isis? It

:52:02.:52:07.

would have to be limited to achieving a particular end. Not to

:52:08.:52:13.

the end of specifically defeating Isis, although one does have to bear

:52:14.:52:17.

in mind that in view of Isis' behaviour, it is a bit difficult to

:52:18.:52:23.

see how the 1 is not inextricably entangled with the other. Legally

:52:24.:52:33.

the aim would have to be protecting the civilian public, not to go in

:52:34.:52:39.

and get rid of ices because it is a threat here as well? The aim would

:52:40.:52:44.

have to be preventing ices from murdering minorities. Key think it

:52:45.:52:53.

will be problematic for David Cameron to launch air strikes in

:52:54.:52:57.

Syria against Isis? It depends what you mean by problematic. In terms of

:52:58.:53:03.

getting the House of Commons to endorse it, I detect a big shift

:53:04.:53:07.

from the vote on Syria a year ago which he lost. You can measure it

:53:08.:53:13.

with people like Ming Campbell and others saying in some circumstances

:53:14.:53:18.

he would be willing to say he would consider military action. I think

:53:19.:53:22.

the political obstacle is not as steep as was just over year ago. The

:53:23.:53:28.

practical one is, it is interesting hearing Dominik explain the legal

:53:29.:53:35.

argument. There are not many parallels with the Iraq war in 2003.

:53:36.:53:40.

One is Tony Blair. The legal argument is we want to get rid of

:53:41.:53:44.

the weapons of mass destruction but in doing so Sadam Hussein would

:53:45.:53:48.

fall. There was an endless debate about it. Now we are saying it would

:53:49.:53:54.

be humanitarian crusade in Syria but as a result of that, would IS be

:53:55.:54:00.

able to survive. The practical issue will be that voters will expect the

:54:01.:54:06.

consequences to be the collapse of a vile regime. I am not sure how that

:54:07.:54:11.

comes about as a result of this action. Should the UK have

:54:12.:54:18.

intervened in Syria last summer? That was a matter for Parliament.

:54:19.:54:23.

The legal basis was President Assad's use of chemical weapons. The

:54:24.:54:28.

justification was to prevent him using chemical weapons, not to

:54:29.:54:34.

remove the regime. America's top military officer yesterday raised

:54:35.:54:38.

the point of ground troops being involved. Is that something you

:54:39.:54:41.

think Britain should consider at all? That again is a policy choice.

:54:42.:54:47.

Whether you are using aircraft to drop bombs or you have boots on the

:54:48.:54:52.

ground, in legal terms, it does not make a significant difference. They

:54:53.:54:55.

are both aggressive acts or acts with a purpose. It is for the Prime

:54:56.:55:00.

Minister to determine how best we should go about this. He has made it

:55:01.:55:04.

clear that the idea of putting ground troops into Iraq and northern

:55:05.:55:09.

Syria is not an option he is currently considering and there are

:55:10.:55:11.

perfectly good and valid policy reasons why he should not go down

:55:12.:55:16.

that road. Ultimately, this problem is only going to be solved in the

:55:17.:55:21.

medium to long-term when the people, who are there, take action to

:55:22.:55:25.

restore their civil society and get rid of individuals who are behaving

:55:26.:55:28.

appallingly. Dominic Grieve, thank you.

:55:29.:55:31.

It was in the summer of 2012 that the Yes Scotland and Better Together

:55:32.:55:34.

Now, after more than two years of debates, leafleting,

:55:35.:55:37.

white papers, devolution offers, and the occasional egging,

:55:38.:55:39.

It all comes down to the votes cast tomorrow - let's look back at the

:55:40.:55:43.

We owe the Scottish people something that is fair, legal and decisive.

:55:44.:56:10.

Ladies and gentlemen, that was quite a launch. Let's make sure it is

:56:11.:56:17.

quite a campaign. Thank you. Chairing this campaign is one of the

:56:18.:56:21.

most important things I have ever done in politics. On Thursday the

:56:22.:56:28.

18th of September 2014, we will hold Scotland's referendum. An historic

:56:29.:56:31.

day where the people will decide Scotland's future.

:56:32.:56:36.

I think the first debate should be between the First Minister of

:56:37.:56:39.

Scotland who wants independence and the Prime Minister of the UK who is

:56:40.:56:42.

trying to stop Scotland getting independents. Thank you very, very

:56:43.:56:52.

much and Scotland, stay with us. I could not, as Chancellor, recommend

:56:53.:56:54.

that we could share the pound could not, as Chancellor, recommend

:56:55.:56:58.

an independent Scotland. Scotland could not keep the pound if it

:56:59.:57:03.

chooses independence. It is clear to me that a currency union would not

:57:04.:57:07.

work for Scotland if it wasn't dependent. It would not work for the

:57:08.:57:12.

rest of the UK. We are in a campaign. It is the interests of Ed

:57:13.:57:17.

Balls and Danny Alexander to talk up what they describe as uncertainty.

:57:18.:57:21.

We are making the case for something which is right for the rest of the

:57:22.:57:30.

UK as well. Any eight-year-old can tell you the flag of the country,

:57:31.:57:36.

the capital of the country and the currency. I assume the flag is the

:57:37.:57:40.

Saltire, I assume the capital will be Edinburgh but you cannot tell us

:57:41.:57:46.

what the currency is. They cannot stop us using the pound. The most

:57:47.:57:51.

important revelation in the debate this evening. We want Scotland to

:57:52.:57:56.

win the Yeses vote to separate from England. I will nominate David

:57:57.:58:09.

Cameron. This weekend poll put the Yeses campaign slightly ahead for

:58:10.:58:16.

the first time. We are proposing that we agree a programme that the

:58:17.:58:20.

Scottish Parliament should have increased powers. Tomorrow, the

:58:21.:58:24.

right place to be is not in Westminster at Prime Minister 's

:58:25.:58:28.

questions, it is in Scotland. We have the entire Westminster

:58:29.:58:34.

Establishment in a total panic. If you are fed up with the effing

:58:35.:58:44.

Tories, give them a kicking, this is totally different from a general

:58:45.:58:48.

election. It is about the next century.

:58:49.:58:49.

That's all for today. Thanks to our guests.

:58:50.:58:51.

The one o'clock news is starting over on BBC One now.

:58:52.:58:54.

I'll be here at noon tomorrow with all the

:58:55.:58:57.

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