Browse content similar to 17/09/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics. | :00:39. | :00:40. | |
The polls suggest it's all still to play for | :00:41. | :00:43. | |
as we enter the final 24 hours of the Scottish referendum campaign. | :00:44. | :00:48. | |
Both sides are making their final pushes before the polls | :00:49. | :00:51. | |
We'll have the latest analysis on this tightest of races. | :00:52. | :00:57. | |
Andrew has been on the ground with No campaigners | :00:58. | :01:00. | |
I most certainly and voting no. I'm voting yes for a fairer society. | :01:01. | :01:22. | |
The Foreign Secretary says the UK will play a leading role | :01:23. | :01:25. | |
in the fight against the so-called Islamic State. | :01:26. | :01:27. | |
We talk to the former Attorney General. | :01:28. | :01:29. | |
But wages still aren't keeping pace with prices. | :01:30. | :01:36. | |
Can the Government do anything about that before the election? | :01:37. | :01:44. | |
All that in the next hour, and with us for the whole programme today is | :01:45. | :01:49. | |
Steve Richards, chief political commentator for the Independent. | :01:50. | :01:52. | |
Welcome to the show. Pick a cliche, any cliche - | :01:53. | :01:55. | |
too close to call, on a knife edge, The Scottish referendum campaign has | :01:56. | :01:59. | |
entered its final day and commentators are still not | :02:00. | :02:04. | |
calling it for any side. Three new polls last night all | :02:05. | :02:07. | |
showed a slight lead for the No campaign amongst people who have | :02:08. | :02:10. | |
already made up their minds. But, as we'll be discussing | :02:11. | :02:13. | |
in a moment, it's those 'don't knows' who may well hold the key to | :02:14. | :02:16. | |
this contest, and the pollsters have been scratching their heads to work | :02:17. | :02:19. | |
out which way they might go. First though, to get you in the mood | :02:20. | :02:24. | |
for tomorrow night, let's go to Jeremy Vine in the BBC's referendum | :02:25. | :02:28. | |
programme HQ in Glasgow to tell us how the results will come in | :02:29. | :02:32. | |
and how the campaign has developed. Votes are coming in through local | :02:33. | :02:42. | |
council areas, so let me show you the 32 Scottish councils here | :02:43. | :02:45. | |
in alphabetical order. What we've done is coloured them | :02:46. | :02:47. | |
in green and red, As the votes come in we will put the | :02:48. | :02:49. | |
percentages on this battle board. But there is an important point to | :02:50. | :02:54. | |
make, which is that the biggest So let me re-order this board | :02:55. | :02:57. | |
for you, and you can see it Glasgow and Edinburgh are | :02:58. | :03:02. | |
the biggest, we will watch them Then they get smaller, so Perth | :03:03. | :03:05. | |
and Kinross and Murray there. Orkney, Shetland, the islands there, | :03:06. | :03:13. | |
fewer voters, maybe quicker counts, but less importance in terms of | :03:14. | :03:21. | |
their presence in this referendum. Now, | :03:22. | :03:27. | |
the story of the last year has been remarkable and I will illustrate | :03:28. | :03:30. | |
this with the polls we've seen. If you go back a year, | :03:31. | :03:34. | |
look at the kind The yeses came back as the year went | :03:35. | :03:37. | |
on, you can see them starting to get closer, but months and months go | :03:38. | :03:44. | |
by and it is basically looking from the polls as if the noes are | :03:45. | :03:47. | |
going to win a comfortable victory. And then look at the drama | :03:48. | :03:53. | |
of the last month, look at what's happened, look at how close the two | :03:54. | :03:57. | |
sides have come to each other. Is there any way | :03:58. | :04:00. | |
of working out which way those Here, we've coloured in a map | :04:01. | :04:03. | |
of Scotland in the colours left An awful lot of SNP yellow, | :04:04. | :04:08. | |
you can see the Labour belt So, you could simply say that SNP | :04:09. | :04:27. | |
areas will go the independent. Blue areas will be against it | :04:28. | :04:30. | |
and then there is Labour red. Crucially, that Labour red part | :04:31. | :04:37. | |
includes Glasgow and Edinburgh, the two biggest councils, | :04:38. | :04:40. | |
but there is a complication. They've been told | :04:41. | :04:43. | |
by their leadership to go against, but there are all kinds | :04:44. | :04:48. | |
of factors like social deprivation There are other problems with | :04:49. | :04:50. | |
that simple analysis well. That was a map from the European | :04:51. | :04:59. | |
election, so turnout was low It looks like turnout will be | :05:00. | :05:02. | |
much higher for the referendum. So working out what will happen is | :05:03. | :05:07. | |
really unchartered territory and that is another thing that makes | :05:08. | :05:11. | |
this upcoming election so exciting. Well, one man who keeps as close an | :05:12. | :05:21. | |
eye as any on this campaign is Professor John Curtice from | :05:22. | :05:24. | |
Strathclyde University - I spoke to I think clearly the message | :05:25. | :05:27. | |
of the opinion polls in line with a number of other polls | :05:28. | :05:36. | |
in the last few days or so is that the no side are favourites, it looks | :05:37. | :05:40. | |
as though they are narrowly ahead. But not so far ahead that we can | :05:41. | :05:44. | |
assume the victory is in the bag. There is also some evidence from | :05:45. | :05:47. | |
these polls that maybe the yes side Certainly, ICM's poll, which can be | :05:48. | :05:51. | |
compared with the last poll they did for the Scotsman in the middle of | :05:52. | :05:56. | |
August, that clearly confirms the message of other polls that there | :05:57. | :06:00. | |
has been a substantial swing to yes. They are now putting the yes vote | :06:01. | :06:05. | |
at as high point Survation also picked up | :06:06. | :06:08. | |
a small swing to yes And again there are other increases | :06:09. | :06:14. | |
in support in other polls. So we cannot be sure the yes side is | :06:15. | :06:21. | |
not still making a bit of progress. From the yes side's perspective, | :06:22. | :06:25. | |
they must feel these polls are Have we done enough | :06:26. | :06:28. | |
in the last two or three days to But they are still within | :06:29. | :06:34. | |
the margin of error. So, actually, | :06:35. | :06:40. | |
it could tell us nothing at all. I think that is | :06:41. | :06:46. | |
a slight exaggeration, Jo. Leaving aside | :06:47. | :06:47. | |
the possibility that the polls are wrong, and clearly it is possible | :06:48. | :06:49. | |
the polls are simply wrong, but if they are roughly right, they | :06:50. | :06:52. | |
are telling us this is very close. The polling released today was for | :06:53. | :06:55. | |
the most part done over the weekend. Therefore there is the possibility | :06:56. | :06:58. | |
some people have changed their mind today, yesterday or on Monday | :06:59. | :07:06. | |
and that that is one of the reasons What we're being told | :07:07. | :07:09. | |
by these opinion polls - it is close, no seem to have the better | :07:10. | :07:16. | |
chance, but neither side's chance Who is going to benefit | :07:17. | :07:19. | |
from the record high turnout? I think the truth is the level | :07:20. | :07:26. | |
of turnout is not going to make There is some evidence in the | :07:27. | :07:30. | |
opinion polls that those people who did not vote in the 2011 Hollywood | :07:31. | :07:34. | |
election are actually less likely to So to that extent at least, the very | :07:35. | :07:37. | |
high turnout and the fact that some people will vote who don't normally | :07:38. | :07:48. | |
grace the polling stations, that is However, | :07:49. | :07:51. | |
it has also been clear from most polling evidence that yes voters are | :07:52. | :07:58. | |
a bit more committed to turning up than no voters are, and that could | :07:59. | :08:01. | |
in a close referendum prove to be But probably what one should say is, | :08:02. | :08:05. | |
if indeed the turnout is anything like what we're expecting, | :08:06. | :08:15. | |
which is certainly higher than 80%, the crucial thing is the turnout | :08:16. | :08:18. | |
will be so high that arguments about Or not, it should be accepted by | :08:19. | :08:42. | |
both sides as being Scotland's collective judgement on what its | :08:43. | :08:48. | |
future should be. There have been reports that some people have said | :08:49. | :08:53. | |
yes to polls but are planning to say no. Is there evidence of this? Both | :08:54. | :09:01. | |
sides have theories about why the polls might be wrong. On the no | :09:02. | :09:06. | |
side, it is that people are lying and they are saying they don't know | :09:07. | :09:11. | |
but they are uncomfortable with declaring it. The problem is most | :09:12. | :09:15. | |
polls have been done over the Internet, so you don't have to tell | :09:16. | :09:19. | |
anybody what you are going to vote. The favourite theory on the yes side | :09:20. | :09:24. | |
is the polls are missing crucial people who don't vote, haven't been | :09:25. | :09:29. | |
on the register, and these people will strongly be them. But if the | :09:30. | :09:35. | |
polls are indeed getting the folk who don't normally vote correctly, | :09:36. | :09:44. | |
the votes are not particularly in favour. So you can understand the | :09:45. | :09:48. | |
spinning that is going on on both sides of the campaign. | :09:49. | :09:50. | |
Now, as John Curtice was saying, this campaign has been a slightly | :09:51. | :09:57. | |
tricky one for the pollsters, not least because there isn't a previous | :09:58. | :09:59. | |
such referendum to compare it to. To discuss this further, I'm joined by | :10:00. | :10:03. | |
Martin Boon from ICM and Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation. | :10:04. | :10:09. | |
Firstly, the people who don't know. And also those who did not vote in | :10:10. | :10:19. | |
the last Holyrood elections. Why did that make it difficult for | :10:20. | :10:23. | |
pollsters? Well, we don't know anything about them. Critical to the | :10:24. | :10:26. | |
projection of the polls is the extent to which we can be confident | :10:27. | :10:30. | |
about the reported behaviour of people we don't know, people who did | :10:31. | :10:35. | |
not vote in the last election in 2011. This will be an unprecedented | :10:36. | :10:40. | |
turnout. By implication, we will perhaps have a quarter of our sample | :10:41. | :10:45. | |
about whom we do not have any record. Typically, in a general | :10:46. | :10:50. | |
election poll, we would be able to tie their behaviour back to what we | :10:51. | :10:57. | |
know they did before. But since many people have not voted before, we do | :10:58. | :10:59. | |
not know enough about them. If these people were built in solidly to | :11:00. | :11:03. | |
samples and they are telling us the truth, then we should be OK. There | :11:04. | :11:09. | |
does not seem to be a huge impact either way. It is just a black hole | :11:10. | :11:14. | |
we need to fill. What sort of numbers are we talking about? When | :11:15. | :11:22. | |
the polls are that close, 48-52, several thousand voters, it could | :11:23. | :11:25. | |
result in a different outcome on the night. Conceivably. The last | :11:26. | :11:33. | |
telephone poll we conducted for the Better Together campaign, the number | :11:34. | :11:37. | |
of people who did not know was as low as 9%. When we try to squeeze | :11:38. | :11:45. | |
those people for an answer, those voters did not break significantly | :11:46. | :11:52. | |
either way. So I'm not of the view there is a big pool of undecided | :11:53. | :11:56. | |
voters ready to swing in one direction or the other. So this idea | :11:57. | :12:02. | |
there is a silent majority of people who don't know who will vote no but | :12:03. | :12:06. | |
haven't said so far all I've been under pressure to say yes, is that | :12:07. | :12:14. | |
emit? No, that could well be a valid argument. Scottish people are | :12:15. | :12:17. | |
patriotic, it is difficult to say I'm proud of Scotland but I also | :12:18. | :12:22. | |
appreciate the benefits of staying in the UK. That could potentially | :12:23. | :12:25. | |
carry some social embarrassment, so it could be a factor. If there is | :12:26. | :12:31. | |
spiral of silence around this, feeling people are not telling you | :12:32. | :12:39. | |
the truth when it comes to it? It is ICM's pet theory, which obviously | :12:40. | :12:44. | |
proved true in the 1990s with regard to the Conservatives, when people | :12:45. | :12:49. | |
were reluctant to admit they were still conservative voters. In | :12:50. | :12:52. | |
Scotland, the extent to which people are put off saying they potentially | :12:53. | :12:56. | |
will vote no because they feel there is an undesirable social | :12:57. | :13:02. | |
relationship there, that is not going to be picked up in the online | :13:03. | :13:09. | |
poll. Where there is a bit of evidence I've conducted privately, | :13:10. | :13:14. | |
I've seen a greater level of reluctance among people who tell us | :13:15. | :13:18. | |
they will vote no in terms of admitting that fact. In a referendum | :13:19. | :13:24. | |
which is so close to 50-50, that could be a deciding factor. I wish I | :13:25. | :13:27. | |
had a bit more evidence to underpin it. What is your reaction now after | :13:28. | :13:32. | |
the poll which put the yes campaign ahead? I can only speak to our own | :13:33. | :13:41. | |
figures. We conducted 13 polls since February, 12 online and one | :13:42. | :13:47. | |
telephone. Yes has between act has been between 45 and 48. We've really | :13:48. | :13:59. | |
not seen that much movement since February. So there is a lot of | :14:00. | :14:06. | |
narrative out there in the media demanding low-priced Internet polls. | :14:07. | :14:12. | |
In some sense, the media are getting what the media want, which is | :14:13. | :14:16. | |
something to talk about. Steve, there has been a huge amount of | :14:17. | :14:24. | |
pressure and demand for these polls. Yes, I think it has been quite | :14:25. | :14:30. | |
difficult. I was up in Edinburgh the August before last and I bumped into | :14:31. | :14:34. | |
a pollster friend of mine who said the data is absolutely different | :14:35. | :14:45. | |
notes and -- definitive, it will be a no vote, the only question is the | :14:46. | :14:50. | |
margin by which the no campaign will win. Recently, I phoned him up to | :14:51. | :14:58. | |
see what he thought. He said he'd never seen a swing like it. So it | :14:59. | :15:04. | |
clearly has been a difficult one to track. One of the problems is there | :15:05. | :15:13. | |
just are not enough people in Scotland to create a decent sample | :15:14. | :15:20. | |
frame from which to draw from. If there was an average panel size of | :15:21. | :15:23. | |
people, a large one might be 2000 people. You've got the same people | :15:24. | :15:33. | |
in Scotland being pulled over and over again, probably creating a | :15:34. | :15:34. | |
self-selecting bias. So is telephone polling more | :15:35. | :15:48. | |
reliable? As the representative of ICM I would have to say that as we | :15:49. | :15:53. | |
are the last telephone poll company still standing! We are still | :15:54. | :16:02. | |
standing. The telephone methodology, the online methodology and a face | :16:03. | :16:08. | |
poll said the same thing. If there is a problem with any methodology, | :16:09. | :16:13. | |
it is a problem we are all facing and all methodologies. It is a | :16:14. | :16:17. | |
problem that the polls are coalescing above the 50% mark for | :16:18. | :16:21. | |
No. I do not understand why there have not been more which have | :16:22. | :16:26. | |
dropped below 50. There is so much going on with this referendum that I | :16:27. | :16:30. | |
do not understand. Take us through your last two polls. The Guardian on | :16:31. | :16:39. | |
Friday was 51% for No. The latest one in the Scotsman was 52% for No. | :16:40. | :16:44. | |
Clearly they are saying the same thing, that No have the edge but it | :16:45. | :16:49. | |
could still be too close to call. The methodologies... What about the | :16:50. | :16:57. | |
Sunday Telegraph poll? That used a slightly different methodology. It | :16:58. | :17:03. | |
had 54% for Yeses. How do you explain that difference? In a tight | :17:04. | :17:11. | |
race, that is a massive difference? Every polling company will | :17:12. | :17:15. | |
experience a rogue from time to time. I would like to airbrush it | :17:16. | :17:20. | |
from history because it does not fit the pattern. Because we did it | :17:21. | :17:25. | |
differently, that underpins why we were slightly different on that one. | :17:26. | :17:30. | |
How likely do you think it is, Damian, that the result will be | :17:31. | :17:40. | |
different to the polls? Our methodology is similar to Martin's. | :17:41. | :17:45. | |
It is the telephone. The ability to have a large enough online panel to | :17:46. | :17:52. | |
not keep asking the same people over and over again, the way we conducted | :17:53. | :17:57. | |
our last poll, we took a representative sample of individual | :17:58. | :18:01. | |
records, then called those people, then adjusted those people back to | :18:02. | :18:04. | |
what are the demographics of Scotland and that showed 54% for the | :18:05. | :18:11. | |
No campaign. We are not having a social embarrassment issue as far as | :18:12. | :18:16. | |
I am concerned! Would you like to bet? I would not like to bet on this | :18:17. | :18:22. | |
one. The polls are nearly almost right these days. We must work on | :18:23. | :18:26. | |
the assumption that that is coalescing around a No win but I | :18:27. | :18:31. | |
would not put money on it. Thank you, gentlemen, we will find out | :18:32. | :18:33. | |
soon enough. Now, you may remember that yesterday | :18:34. | :18:36. | |
Andrew was with Nicola Sturgeon out on the Yes campaign trail | :18:37. | :18:39. | |
in Hamilton. I've still not received | :18:40. | :18:41. | |
a post card or any shortbread. Well, | :18:42. | :18:43. | |
today he's out with the No campaign, with Jim Murphy in Barrhead in his | :18:44. | :18:45. | |
constituency of East Renfrewnshire. On the final day of this long | :18:46. | :19:09. | |
referendum campaign, the likelihood is that it Aberdeen will vote No, | :19:10. | :19:16. | |
Dundee will vote Yeses, this leaves the West of Scotland and this | :19:17. | :19:21. | |
greater Glasgow area where many Scots live, the key battle ground | :19:22. | :19:25. | |
which could determine the result. In the battle ground, the fight is for | :19:26. | :19:29. | |
Labour to convince its core vote to stick with the union. | :19:30. | :19:37. | |
The Better Together campaign has been criticised for not being vocal | :19:38. | :19:45. | |
enough, for lacking passion. Jim Murphy, the Labour MP in this area | :19:46. | :19:50. | |
has been a one-man campaign to put that right. He has gone up and down | :19:51. | :19:55. | |
the country with his Irn-Bru crate on which he stands and speaks and | :19:56. | :20:08. | |
canvases all over the place. Are you voting for his side? I certainly am. | :20:09. | :20:14. | |
We want to stay the same and not change. Do you think that is how | :20:15. | :20:21. | |
people in areas like this feel? I think it is maybe 50-50. You think | :20:22. | :20:28. | |
it is close? Yes. Are you in danger of losing the | :20:29. | :20:34. | |
traditional Labour vote? I do not think so. Increasingly, some of the | :20:35. | :20:41. | |
Labour voters gave the SNP the benefit of the doubt a couple of | :20:42. | :20:45. | |
weeks ago and looked at them and they are now shrouded in doubt. When | :20:46. | :20:50. | |
we examined what they were proposing, no clarity on the pound | :20:51. | :20:54. | |
or the pensions, I think there is a move back to us among Labour voters. | :20:55. | :21:01. | |
How much faith you have in the idea of the silent No vote. There are a | :21:02. | :21:10. | |
lot of voters the polls are not picking up? I think if this was a | :21:11. | :21:15. | |
referendum about posters in Windows, the Yes campaign would win. They | :21:16. | :21:20. | |
have more posters in the windows but Windows do not vote. There is a | :21:21. | :21:24. | |
quite patriotically John to waiting on Thursday will stand up and be | :21:25. | :21:30. | |
counted and vote No in a quiet, dignified way -- a patriotic | :21:31. | :21:38. | |
majority. How are you going to vote on Thursday? I know how I am going | :21:39. | :21:44. | |
to vote, I do not want to say on the television. I have decided. All I | :21:45. | :21:50. | |
can say is the response we have got today is fantastic. We are getting a | :21:51. | :21:56. | |
lot of people saying no thanks. Vote yes for a fairer society. We have a | :21:57. | :22:01. | |
lot of money which can go to people rather than investments. The polls | :22:02. | :22:06. | |
have been tight, tight enough to make predictions dangerous. What | :22:07. | :22:12. | |
makes this even more unpredictable is the existence of people in two | :22:13. | :22:16. | |
groups. Those living in socially deprived areas. They may not have | :22:17. | :22:23. | |
voted for many years. The Yes campaign think they will come out | :22:24. | :22:26. | |
for independence. On the other side, the silent Nos. They have made | :22:27. | :22:31. | |
up their mind but they are not telling anybody about it. The | :22:32. | :22:36. | |
problem is, politicians, pundits and pollsters have no idea how big | :22:37. | :22:41. | |
either group is which means we have no idea how this will pan out until | :22:42. | :22:47. | |
these results start coming in in the early hours of Friday morning. | :22:48. | :22:53. | |
I am delighted to say our new young reporter joins us from Aberdeen. | :22:54. | :22:59. | |
Andrew, welcome. It is a privilege to be on the same show as you! You | :23:00. | :23:08. | |
have been on the campaign trail for nearly a week in Scotland. Give us a | :23:09. | :23:13. | |
feel. Tell us how it has felt for you wandering around the streets on | :23:14. | :23:18. | |
both sides? As the campaign polls have got closer and there is a sense | :23:19. | :23:22. | |
of momentum behind the Yes campaign and No becoming more defensive, it | :23:23. | :23:29. | |
has got more frenetic, hectic, passionate and emotional on both | :23:30. | :23:33. | |
sides and at times nasty as well. There is a false balance to say | :23:34. | :23:37. | |
there is nasty on both sides, more nasty nurse has come from the Yes | :23:38. | :23:43. | |
campaign, from a small minority. I have been in Edinburgh, Paisley, | :23:44. | :23:50. | |
Glasgow, bar head, Hamilton with the Yes and the No. Everywhere I have | :23:51. | :23:56. | |
gone I have been met with friendliness, politeness, engagement | :23:57. | :23:59. | |
and everybody wants to talk about it coming up and no sense of threat or | :24:00. | :24:04. | |
nasty nurse. There has been some but it is by no means everywhere. | :24:05. | :24:08. | |
Everywhere I went people wanted to simply talk about it and get | :24:09. | :24:12. | |
engaged. We have a lot of Daily Politics viewers in this campaign. | :24:13. | :24:18. | |
I'm glad to hear it. What about this idea that people are not saying how | :24:19. | :24:21. | |
they will vote. When you say people are keen to talk to you at and | :24:22. | :24:26. | |
engage, are they not telling you how they will vote apart from the ones | :24:27. | :24:30. | |
in the film? Most people are telling us. There is still a sizeable chunk | :24:31. | :24:36. | |
of people who are yet to make up their minds. The problem is, we are | :24:37. | :24:40. | |
dealing with the concept here which we cannot measure. We do not know | :24:41. | :24:45. | |
how many of these people fall into the silent No, just as we do not | :24:46. | :24:49. | |
know how many of these are lapsed Labour voters living in pretty bad | :24:50. | :24:54. | |
social conditions who will turn out for Yes. By definition, if they are | :24:55. | :24:58. | |
not going to tell you, we do not know. The pollsters have struggled. | :24:59. | :25:04. | |
Commentators like me have struggled. The politicians have struggled to | :25:05. | :25:09. | |
reach these people. It is what makes this election even more | :25:10. | :25:12. | |
unpredictable than the polls are suggesting. You are in Aberdeen, a | :25:13. | :25:17. | |
key battle ground, how is it splitting up there? The hinterland | :25:18. | :25:23. | |
of Aberdeen is Alex Salmond territory. Nationalism is very | :25:24. | :25:30. | |
strong in the counterparts -- County parts of this area. But Aberdeen is | :25:31. | :25:35. | |
the richest city in Britain. The un employment rate is the lowest of any | :25:36. | :25:42. | |
city in Britain. The per capita incomes are highest. When you add | :25:43. | :25:47. | |
all these things together, it is likely that Aberdeen will be in the | :25:48. | :25:52. | |
No camp. But I would put it this way, if on the night we discover | :25:53. | :25:56. | |
Aberdeen is in the Yes camp, I think you can be pretty sure that this | :25:57. | :26:01. | |
country is heading for independence. Interesting. That is | :26:02. | :26:05. | |
one of many to watch on the night. Prediction time, who will win? The | :26:06. | :26:10. | |
No no, I am not going to do it. It is too close. There is no point in | :26:11. | :26:17. | |
making things up. This has been a wake-up call for commentators as | :26:18. | :26:22. | |
well as the pollsters. This has been unlike any campaign we have ever | :26:23. | :26:26. | |
covered before. I was having dinner one night and there was a rather | :26:27. | :26:30. | |
noisy hen party going on. They were all dressed up in costumes and it | :26:31. | :26:38. | |
suddenly went quiet. I said, why are they now talking among themselves | :26:39. | :26:42. | |
rather than shouting and screaming and laughing and joking? They said, | :26:43. | :26:45. | |
they are talking about the referendum and how to vote. That is | :26:46. | :26:51. | |
how deep it has gone into Scottish society. It is serious stuff. | :26:52. | :26:56. | |
Andrew, enjoy your final hours are up in Scotland. | :26:57. | :27:03. | |
Steve, picking up on that. There have been reports of intimidation. | :27:04. | :27:08. | |
Is that the general feeling you have been getting that in the closing | :27:09. | :27:12. | |
stages it has become so tense that the level of abuse and intimidation | :27:13. | :27:17. | |
on both sides has gone up? Clearly, there has been a bit. We have seen | :27:18. | :27:22. | |
the pictures. Ed Miliband yesterday had to stop his tour of a shopping | :27:23. | :27:26. | |
centre and so on. It could be that that is one of the sub themes | :27:27. | :27:31. | |
emerging over the next 48 hours, that there could be more of that, | :27:32. | :27:36. | |
because it is so intense and passionate and close. I do not think | :27:37. | :27:40. | |
that is the overriding feeling, as Andrew suggested himself, that the | :27:41. | :27:45. | |
overriding sense is one of intense engagement and politics coming | :27:46. | :28:01. | |
alive, exposing the complete myth that does the rounds that politics | :28:02. | :28:03. | |
is boring and dull. It clearly is not. It just has to be presented | :28:04. | :28:06. | |
certain ways and people up it up, as you and I lap it up normally. That | :28:07. | :28:08. | |
is positive and exciting. The problem with that argument is, the | :28:09. | :28:12. | |
debate they are having is, how they are ruled. It is a big debate but it | :28:13. | :28:17. | |
is not how you run the NHS, how you raise money. Those problems are | :28:18. | :28:24. | |
really thorny and involve compromises and working things | :28:25. | :28:29. | |
through. For example, all those voting yes will not agree on all of | :28:30. | :28:34. | |
those kind of issues. They are the nitty-gritty of politics. Just | :28:35. | :28:40. | |
briefly, what about healing after this? It has been divisive. The | :28:41. | :28:45. | |
country looks as if it will be split. How do you heal the divisions | :28:46. | :28:51. | |
at community level afterwards? I do not think they will be. If there is | :28:52. | :28:56. | |
a close No vote, there will be calls for another referendum quite | :28:57. | :29:01. | |
quickly. If the Conservatives win at Westminster and hold a referendum on | :29:02. | :29:04. | |
Europe and we vote to pull out, Scotland will say, we want a | :29:05. | :29:09. | |
referendum to have independence to stay in. That is in two years time. | :29:10. | :29:17. | |
I think the healing thing, it will not happen. This issue is out and | :29:18. | :29:19. | |
incidentally, now will apply big-time to England, Wales and | :29:20. | :29:25. | |
Northern Ireland. We are in for a pretty for Cannock period in British | :29:26. | :29:29. | |
politics. Thank you -- volcanic. What about Ed Miliband and labour? | :29:30. | :29:43. | |
Many have blamed the party for the recent collapse in support for the | :29:44. | :29:46. | |
Better Together campaign. Some suggest the situation is the result | :29:47. | :29:50. | |
of 20 years of complacency and failure in Scotland. Labour has been | :29:51. | :29:55. | |
struggling in Scotland for a number of years. In 2011, they let a big | :29:56. | :30:01. | |
lead in the polls slip ahead of parliamentary elections before | :30:02. | :30:05. | |
losing to the SNP in a landslide. According to one recent poll, 42% of | :30:06. | :30:12. | |
Scots who voted in the 2010 election are minded to vote yes to | :30:13. | :30:16. | |
independence on Thursday. The national polls have also tightened | :30:17. | :30:20. | |
for Labour in recent days. Earlier this week, one had the party neck | :30:21. | :30:26. | |
and neck with the Tories. Of more concern for the party is Ed | :30:27. | :30:30. | |
Miliband's personal approval rating, which remained significantly behind | :30:31. | :30:38. | |
Cameron's on 29%. It faces a battle on two fronts. Ed Miliband must make | :30:39. | :30:43. | |
real inroads with middle-class voters in the south-east of England | :30:44. | :30:47. | |
without alienating its core working-class base who are | :30:48. | :30:52. | |
increasingly attracted to the overtures of Nigel Farage and UKIP. | :30:53. | :30:58. | |
Joining me is a former Labour parliamentary candidate, welcome. | :30:59. | :31:03. | |
Where in your view has Scottish Labour gone wrong? The yes campaign | :31:04. | :31:10. | |
has been high on energy and low on detail. Labour needs to match that | :31:11. | :31:14. | |
energy but provide the tell as to how we can create a better country. | :31:15. | :31:19. | |
Do you broadly agree with the argument that the support that has | :31:20. | :31:23. | |
been bleeding from Labour in Scotland to SNP is as a result of | :31:24. | :31:28. | |
Labour complacency or that they have not been left wing enough in the | :31:29. | :31:34. | |
eyes of Scottish voters? It certainly seems people who voted | :31:35. | :31:37. | |
Labour in the past are considering voting yes and people who have never | :31:38. | :31:42. | |
voted before are considering voting yes. All of these are people Labour | :31:43. | :31:46. | |
should be reaching out to. Who do you blame? I think it is a long-term | :31:47. | :31:51. | |
issue, nobody is personally to blame. Not the Scottish Labour | :31:52. | :31:57. | |
figures who've come down to Westminster? They have let their | :31:58. | :32:03. | |
Scottish heartlands go. You see similar issues in the North of | :32:04. | :32:09. | |
England in other Labour strongholds, where Labour's presents | :32:10. | :32:13. | |
is not as dynamic as we would like it to be. This is a challenge for | :32:14. | :32:19. | |
the party as a whole. You talk about energy, is it about policy as well? | :32:20. | :32:25. | |
I think what has happened with the slip of support in both directions | :32:26. | :32:31. | |
is that Labour is not providing a significant battle for hope and a | :32:32. | :32:34. | |
better tomorrow for the country. It has two provide that. There is a | :32:35. | :32:41. | |
tacit admission that they have failed in Scotland. TUC that, has | :32:42. | :32:45. | |
there been a failure or is it just underestimating the power of the yes | :32:46. | :32:54. | |
campaign linked to SNP? Well, even if it is an underestimation, that is | :32:55. | :33:00. | |
a failure as well. It is a decline of both the big parties. The | :33:01. | :33:05. | |
Conservatives remain toxic in Scotland and the North of England, | :33:06. | :33:09. | |
David Cameron has not modernise the party so it has become acceptable in | :33:10. | :33:14. | |
these places. Very senior figures in the Labour Party who are campaigning | :33:15. | :33:18. | |
in Scotland tell me that what they get on the doorstep is that the | :33:19. | :33:27. | |
Labour government was no different from the Tory government. | :33:28. | :33:31. | |
Objectively, that is not the case, you can list many differences, but | :33:32. | :33:35. | |
that is the perception. So they have been complacent. But you highlight | :33:36. | :33:44. | |
the dilemma - how do Miliband and co-give a message that appeals both | :33:45. | :33:50. | |
to the south of England and the North? There are answers, but they | :33:51. | :33:54. | |
have not answered that because of Scotland. Tony Blair always thought | :33:55. | :34:01. | |
devolution was how it might end up, and that if you give away that much | :34:02. | :34:06. | |
power, you get closer to independence, you don't blunt the | :34:07. | :34:11. | |
SNP. Was he right? Well, evidently that is the case! I remember people | :34:12. | :34:16. | |
telling me in 1997 when the holder pollution thing kicked off, whatever | :34:17. | :34:21. | |
else happens, at least we kill off Alex Salmond. Anterior is running | :34:22. | :34:31. | |
Scotland. -- and here he is. But they had no choice in 1997, they had | :34:32. | :34:37. | |
to do something. If they'd gone into that election and offered nothing to | :34:38. | :34:42. | |
Scotland, there would then it all to reaction anyway. Clearly, that | :34:43. | :34:49. | |
devolution settlement has triggered the events which led to this. As did | :34:50. | :34:56. | |
the election of a government in 2010 which was obsessed with public | :34:57. | :35:00. | |
sector reform, which changed things in England when Scotland was in a | :35:01. | :35:04. | |
completely different place. That has widened the gap between the two. | :35:05. | :35:09. | |
Steve Richards says there is a perception in Scotland the two | :35:10. | :35:12. | |
parties are similar. You could argue Labour has signed up to the first | :35:13. | :35:16. | |
year of spending commitments, that there will not be wage rises for | :35:17. | :35:20. | |
public sector workers. These are things that could let Scottish | :35:21. | :35:24. | |
voters think, well, what is the difference? Did they need to be more | :35:25. | :35:29. | |
left wing but Scottish voters? Well, Steve also said the reality | :35:30. | :35:37. | |
did not conform to that. Getting rid of zero hours contracts, a higher | :35:38. | :35:46. | |
living wage for workers. But that message has not got across. Has it | :35:47. | :35:50. | |
been right to have Gordon Brown painted as the saviour of the | :35:51. | :35:53. | |
union? Was Alistair Darling the right person to lead the campaign? I | :35:54. | :35:59. | |
think Gordon Brown and Jim Murphy have done a great job. Do you | :36:00. | :36:06. | |
agree? Listening yesterday to Gordon Brown, former Prime Minister, a | :36:07. | :36:11. | |
backbench MP, offering all sorts of promises on more powers on a mandate | :36:12. | :36:15. | |
he doesn't really have, was that really the right thing by Labour to | :36:16. | :36:20. | |
do, never mind the Prime Minister? I think bringing Gordon Brown to the | :36:21. | :36:24. | |
fore of the campaign was a smart move. Round has a sense of Scotland | :36:25. | :36:33. | |
and Scottish politics and what works which has always been formidable. | :36:34. | :36:38. | |
John Curtis told me in an interview earlier this year that Brown, more | :36:39. | :36:43. | |
than anyone else on that side of the argument, had framed a message | :36:44. | :36:46. | |
effectively targeting the don't knows in Scotland. So I think it has | :36:47. | :36:54. | |
made a difference. To your broader point, Labour have emphatically got | :36:55. | :36:57. | |
a problem with the way the perceived in Scotland. I know that because | :36:58. | :37:02. | |
they are telling me that. And in northern towns as well. How big a | :37:03. | :37:06. | |
problem is it, briefly, in northern towns? It is a problem but I think | :37:07. | :37:15. | |
with hard work, Labour can change it. Why haven't they done so until | :37:16. | :37:20. | |
now? I think there are lots of constituencies where you have | :37:21. | :37:23. | |
hard-working, local MPs who really count of those perceptions. | :37:24. | :37:26. | |
More good news on the economy for the government today with the number | :37:27. | :37:29. | |
of people in employment rising by 74,000 and unemployment down to | :37:30. | :37:32. | |
The number of people claiming Job Seekers Allowance has also | :37:33. | :37:37. | |
fallen below 1 million for the first time in six years. | :37:38. | :37:41. | |
Wages however are still failing to keep pace with inflation and rose | :37:42. | :37:44. | |
Earlier I spoke to work and pensions minister Mark Harper and put it to | :37:45. | :37:50. | |
him that people aren't feeling the benefits of economic growth... | :37:51. | :37:55. | |
Of course it's the case people are not going to | :37:56. | :37:58. | |
feel better off until wages grow faster, but it is about making sure | :37:59. | :38:01. | |
We want jobs to be growing, which they are. | :38:02. | :38:06. | |
I also think it is worth highlighting today that the figures | :38:07. | :38:09. | |
are good in all parts of the United Kingdom, including in Scotland. | :38:10. | :38:13. | |
The employment rate in Scotland is higher than | :38:14. | :38:17. | |
the rest of the UK, unemployment is lower, youth unemployment is low | :38:18. | :38:20. | |
It's a big contrast if you look at the numbers in Ireland, say, where | :38:21. | :38:26. | |
Scotland has recovered so much better from the economic crash. | :38:27. | :38:29. | |
It just goes to show we are better economically together, which I think | :38:30. | :38:35. | |
people in Scotland will bear in mind when they vote tomorrow. | :38:36. | :38:39. | |
Are you worried by the numbers of people who are in low paid | :38:40. | :38:42. | |
I think if you look at some of the breakdowns, | :38:43. | :38:49. | |
one thing which is interesting is if you look at part-time work, | :38:50. | :38:53. | |
particularly women in part-time work, 90% of those people wanted to | :38:54. | :38:56. | |
Of course, everyone would like to be paid more, but people are | :38:57. | :39:04. | |
generally in part-time work because they want the flexibility. | :39:05. | :39:06. | |
The number of people who want full-time work but can't find it | :39:07. | :39:10. | |
So things are going in the right direction. | :39:11. | :39:19. | |
Is everything perfect? No, of course it isn't. | :39:20. | :39:21. | |
We still have some way to go to recover from what was | :39:22. | :39:24. | |
the deepest recession we've had, but these figures are positive. | :39:25. | :39:27. | |
I suggest it is more than some way to go, because wages have been | :39:28. | :39:31. | |
behind inflation now for several years, and the gap that has | :39:32. | :39:33. | |
It will take an awful long time, much longer than predicted, | :39:34. | :39:43. | |
By 2015, will you be able to stand there | :39:44. | :39:49. | |
and say, you are feeling better off now than you were in 2010? | :39:50. | :39:53. | |
I think the economy is immeasurably better than was when we came | :39:54. | :39:56. | |
We've reduced the deficit, we've seen 2.1 million more | :39:57. | :39:58. | |
Wages are rising faster in the private sector. | :39:59. | :40:04. | |
Things are not perfect and we still have a long way to go. | :40:05. | :40:11. | |
That is one reason actually people next year at the general election | :40:12. | :40:16. | |
need to focus on voting for a Conservative government to continue | :40:17. | :40:20. | |
this growth and not put it at risk by going back to the poor economic | :40:21. | :40:24. | |
policies we saw under the last Labour government. | :40:25. | :40:28. | |
But you are not reaping the benefits of that economic growth, | :40:29. | :40:31. | |
electorally. That's what many Tory MPs feel. | :40:32. | :40:33. | |
Also, if you continue along a low paid, unskilled | :40:34. | :40:37. | |
labour force entering the market, which you have argued, | :40:38. | :40:40. | |
you are not going to pay that deficit down further. | :40:41. | :40:45. | |
The rate at which you pay it down will slow, | :40:46. | :40:47. | |
the deficit will not reduce in the way you want it because you are not | :40:48. | :40:51. | |
getting the tax receipts because of this low paid, unskilled economy. | :40:52. | :40:54. | |
It is a third lower than when we came to office in 2010. | :40:55. | :41:04. | |
I don't think you should decry the fact that we are successfully | :41:05. | :41:08. | |
getting into work hundreds of thousands of people who were not | :41:09. | :41:10. | |
Yes, some of them may be starting off in entry-level positions, | :41:11. | :41:16. | |
but you get an entry-level job, then you can gain more skills | :41:17. | :41:19. | |
It is one reason we are rolling out Universal Credit. | :41:20. | :41:24. | |
It will always pay to take more hours at work | :41:25. | :41:27. | |
One of the problems is the productivity | :41:28. | :41:37. | |
Even with these people coming in at whatever level they enter | :41:38. | :41:44. | |
the jobs market, the productivity levels are low | :41:45. | :41:46. | |
and there is no sign or indication of how and when they will improve. | :41:47. | :41:51. | |
Well, there is a dispute about how productivity levels are measured. | :41:52. | :41:54. | |
I've been clear these figures are very positive and they | :41:55. | :41:57. | |
They are positive across all parts of the UK. | :41:58. | :42:07. | |
And they should be welcomed by people. | :42:08. | :42:09. | |
They are positive across all parts of the UK. | :42:10. | :42:13. | |
I'm joined now by economics editor at The Economist, Richard Davies. | :42:14. | :42:21. | |
There are two conflicting views about how well the economy is doing. | :42:22. | :42:28. | |
Do you subscribe to the macro picture or the 1 broadly represented | :42:29. | :42:31. | |
by Labour which says people are not feeling it in their pockets? I think | :42:32. | :42:37. | |
he is right. On the big picture, when you look abroad, unemployment | :42:38. | :42:43. | |
in the US is falling but it is falling because people are giving up | :42:44. | :42:48. | |
and leaving the workforce. So on the international picture, that picture | :42:49. | :43:00. | |
is correct. But where he is wrong is the productivity puzzle. There is no | :43:01. | :43:04. | |
real debate. The shortfall in productivity when compared to the | :43:05. | :43:09. | |
precrisis trend is about 12 to 14%. Maybe 2% of that is Miss measured. | :43:10. | :43:18. | |
The rest is a huge gap. It means the British worker power is producing | :43:19. | :43:21. | |
less output, and because of that, wages, as you correctly put it to | :43:22. | :43:27. | |
him, have stagnated. What is the prognosis for the future? In the | :43:28. | :43:34. | |
short term, it is instructive to look at Bacon sees. In the data | :43:35. | :43:39. | |
release we had today, there were around 50,000 jobs in manufacturing. | :43:40. | :43:43. | |
That is great, because the average weekly wage in manufacturing is | :43:44. | :43:49. | |
high, around ?550. There were ten times more jobs in the services | :43:50. | :43:53. | |
sector, many in restaurants and hotels. Those are lower paid jobs | :43:54. | :43:57. | |
which indicates wages are not going to pick up much. This feeds into | :43:58. | :44:01. | |
your question about the fiscal puzzle. He was a bit unclear on | :44:02. | :44:07. | |
that. Personal income tax receipts that are flowing to the Exchequer | :44:08. | :44:11. | |
are falling and the reason they are falling is because of this generous | :44:12. | :44:16. | |
increase in the amount you are in tax-free. It was ?6,000 five years | :44:17. | :44:22. | |
ago, it has gone up to ?10,000. That is great for people on low pay. The | :44:23. | :44:26. | |
problem is, there are so many people earning a bit more than that ?10,000 | :44:27. | :44:32. | |
but the deficit is not coming down as quickly as the Conservative Party | :44:33. | :44:37. | |
hoped. Interest rates, that is the big debate between now and the | :44:38. | :44:41. | |
election. Do you expect them to go up before the election? There is a | :44:42. | :44:50. | |
possibility they might go up by 25 basis points. Very little | :44:51. | :44:53. | |
possibility of them going much higher than that. Briefly, that is | :44:54. | :44:57. | |
because of a big surplus in the labour market. We still have 2 | :44:58. | :45:03. | |
million people unemployed, 6% unemployed. That can probably go | :45:04. | :45:07. | |
down to 5% before we start to see wage pressure. That wage pressure is | :45:08. | :45:11. | |
what the Bank of England will be really looking at. The problem is | :45:12. | :45:19. | |
the political message. It looks as though growth will continue, Britain | :45:20. | :45:20. | |
racing ahead. What has Labour said? As you have implied, in both your | :45:21. | :45:40. | |
discussions on this, there are still high levels of insecurity and wages | :45:41. | :45:46. | |
that are relatively low compared to price inflation and so on. In | :45:47. | :45:50. | |
theory, they have still got material to go. I think the problem is the | :45:51. | :45:57. | |
recent past witches and a motive part of British politics and I | :45:58. | :46:03. | |
gather is strong in opinion polls -- the recent past which is an emotive | :46:04. | :46:12. | |
part of British politics. Miliband and Ed Balls' response has been to | :46:13. | :46:20. | |
not talk about the recent past and they have left the space open for | :46:21. | :46:24. | |
George Osborne to get the message across which the polls are saying is | :46:25. | :46:31. | |
powerful. It is a bit like they used to play on the Winter of discontent | :46:32. | :46:36. | |
which happened in 1979 for years and years after with great force. Unless | :46:37. | :46:41. | |
there is a response and an effective response, the two rain is there. | :46:42. | :46:44. | |
Thank you. Following the beheading of British | :46:45. | :46:48. | |
aid worker David Haines by Islamic State jihadis, military intervention | :46:49. | :46:50. | |
against IS looks increasingly likely but it's still unclear where that | :46:51. | :46:52. | |
intervention will take place. Will airstrikes be confined to Iraq | :46:53. | :46:57. | |
or will British and American forces There was confusion last week when | :46:58. | :47:10. | |
the Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond appeared to rule that out but was | :47:11. | :47:14. | |
then corrected by Downing Street. Here's what Foreign Secretary Philip | :47:15. | :47:15. | |
Hammond had to say on the matter after a meeting of | :47:16. | :47:18. | |
foreign leaders in Paris on Monday. I am sorry if I created confusion | :47:19. | :47:27. | |
last Thursday. I gave the position in relation to a strike but what | :47:28. | :47:32. | |
people are talking about here is the possibility that there may be some | :47:33. | :47:36. | |
action against Isil in Syria at some point in the future. I have said | :47:37. | :47:41. | |
already in parliament that would be an order of magnitude more difficult | :47:42. | :47:49. | |
than air strikes in Iraq for many reasons, legal and technical. We | :47:50. | :47:54. | |
have not ruled it out. We have not made a final decision yet. I have | :47:55. | :47:59. | |
said that Britain is clear that it will play a leading role in this | :48:00. | :48:04. | |
coalition. The Foreign Secretary, Philip Hammond. | :48:05. | :48:06. | |
There are question marks over the legality of military action | :48:07. | :48:10. | |
With me to discuss these is Dominic Grieve who was | :48:11. | :48:14. | |
the government's Attorney General up until July of this year. | :48:15. | :48:18. | |
Welcome to the Daily Politics. David Cameron says we would not need the | :48:19. | :48:23. | |
permission of President Assad to launch air strikes in Syria. Do you | :48:24. | :48:31. | |
agree? That is probably correct. If the decisions are right in relation | :48:32. | :48:38. | |
to the necessity to protect the population from gross mistreatment | :48:39. | :48:44. | |
or genocide which IS seems to be perpetrating, then under the | :48:45. | :48:48. | |
international law it would be possible to do that. You have said | :48:49. | :48:53. | |
there is a human rights argument, that is what was used in the Balkans | :48:54. | :48:58. | |
and Kosovo by Tony Blair for that intervention. But is it wrong to say | :48:59. | :49:06. | |
the Assad regime is illegitimate and that would provide a sound basis for | :49:07. | :49:13. | |
bombing ices in Syria. That is not how I understood what the Prime | :49:14. | :49:18. | |
Minister was saying. Normally you take action on behalf of the | :49:19. | :49:24. | |
government of that country but the way Syria has been behaving has been | :49:25. | :49:29. | |
so bad. The government does not wish to cooperate with such a regime. In | :49:30. | :49:34. | |
those circumstances, cooperation with the Syrian regime would I think | :49:35. | :49:39. | |
be possible. David Cameron's words word that the Iraqi government is an | :49:40. | :49:47. | |
illegitimate government. Is he wrong to say it is an illegitimate regime? | :49:48. | :49:52. | |
I do not think that is the issue. People can say if they think a | :49:53. | :50:00. | |
regime is legitimate or not. Also, it is clear that it's writ does not | :50:01. | :50:04. | |
run through the country. I think what the Prime Minister was saying | :50:05. | :50:11. | |
is this was a regime with which we could not under any circumstances do | :50:12. | :50:16. | |
business. So it is not a problem for the Prime Minister to ignore | :50:17. | :50:19. | |
President Assad if air strikes were launched in his country? If the | :50:20. | :50:24. | |
correct grounds were there because of humanitarian necessity and the | :50:25. | :50:28. | |
steps that were taken were reasonable, necessary and | :50:29. | :50:32. | |
proportionate to address that, it can be justified under customary | :50:33. | :50:35. | |
international law. Although it is a concept which is challenged in some | :50:36. | :50:40. | |
countries but it is one that the UK has always maintained a close. There | :50:41. | :50:55. | |
are many parts of the world where well-documented atrocities are | :50:56. | :50:57. | |
committed and we have not got involved. Where in your mind do you | :50:58. | :50:59. | |
draw the line between human rights abuses justifying intervention and | :51:00. | :51:01. | |
where it does not? For humanitarian necessity to come in, it has to be | :51:02. | :51:04. | |
more than human rights abuses. The scale has to be such that it | :51:05. | :51:07. | |
justifies taking military action without going to the UN for a | :51:08. | :51:13. | |
resolution or if a UN resolution is impossible. So it has to be a very | :51:14. | :51:17. | |
serious situation. I have to say, from what one has seen that is going | :51:18. | :51:23. | |
on in northern Syria, that is a situation which has risen over a | :51:24. | :51:28. | |
number of times over the past number of years. The ground may be there | :51:29. | :51:36. | |
for taking such action. It has to be aimed at protecting the civilian | :51:37. | :51:39. | |
population. It has not got to be aimed at trying to remove IS, it has | :51:40. | :51:44. | |
to be with one specific purpose in mind which has to be providing | :51:45. | :51:49. | |
protection. What you do has to be able to be justified by showing you | :51:50. | :51:54. | |
are achieving that particular aim. So it would be limited? David | :51:55. | :52:01. | |
Cameron and President Obama have said they need to defeat Isis? It | :52:02. | :52:07. | |
would have to be limited to achieving a particular end. Not to | :52:08. | :52:13. | |
the end of specifically defeating Isis, although one does have to bear | :52:14. | :52:17. | |
in mind that in view of Isis' behaviour, it is a bit difficult to | :52:18. | :52:23. | |
see how the 1 is not inextricably entangled with the other. Legally | :52:24. | :52:33. | |
the aim would have to be protecting the civilian public, not to go in | :52:34. | :52:39. | |
and get rid of ices because it is a threat here as well? The aim would | :52:40. | :52:44. | |
have to be preventing ices from murdering minorities. Key think it | :52:45. | :52:53. | |
will be problematic for David Cameron to launch air strikes in | :52:54. | :52:57. | |
Syria against Isis? It depends what you mean by problematic. In terms of | :52:58. | :53:03. | |
getting the House of Commons to endorse it, I detect a big shift | :53:04. | :53:07. | |
from the vote on Syria a year ago which he lost. You can measure it | :53:08. | :53:13. | |
with people like Ming Campbell and others saying in some circumstances | :53:14. | :53:18. | |
he would be willing to say he would consider military action. I think | :53:19. | :53:22. | |
the political obstacle is not as steep as was just over year ago. The | :53:23. | :53:28. | |
practical one is, it is interesting hearing Dominik explain the legal | :53:29. | :53:35. | |
argument. There are not many parallels with the Iraq war in 2003. | :53:36. | :53:40. | |
One is Tony Blair. The legal argument is we want to get rid of | :53:41. | :53:44. | |
the weapons of mass destruction but in doing so Sadam Hussein would | :53:45. | :53:48. | |
fall. There was an endless debate about it. Now we are saying it would | :53:49. | :53:54. | |
be humanitarian crusade in Syria but as a result of that, would IS be | :53:55. | :54:00. | |
able to survive. The practical issue will be that voters will expect the | :54:01. | :54:06. | |
consequences to be the collapse of a vile regime. I am not sure how that | :54:07. | :54:11. | |
comes about as a result of this action. Should the UK have | :54:12. | :54:18. | |
intervened in Syria last summer? That was a matter for Parliament. | :54:19. | :54:23. | |
The legal basis was President Assad's use of chemical weapons. The | :54:24. | :54:28. | |
justification was to prevent him using chemical weapons, not to | :54:29. | :54:34. | |
remove the regime. America's top military officer yesterday raised | :54:35. | :54:38. | |
the point of ground troops being involved. Is that something you | :54:39. | :54:41. | |
think Britain should consider at all? That again is a policy choice. | :54:42. | :54:47. | |
Whether you are using aircraft to drop bombs or you have boots on the | :54:48. | :54:52. | |
ground, in legal terms, it does not make a significant difference. They | :54:53. | :54:55. | |
are both aggressive acts or acts with a purpose. It is for the Prime | :54:56. | :55:00. | |
Minister to determine how best we should go about this. He has made it | :55:01. | :55:04. | |
clear that the idea of putting ground troops into Iraq and northern | :55:05. | :55:09. | |
Syria is not an option he is currently considering and there are | :55:10. | :55:11. | |
perfectly good and valid policy reasons why he should not go down | :55:12. | :55:16. | |
that road. Ultimately, this problem is only going to be solved in the | :55:17. | :55:21. | |
medium to long-term when the people, who are there, take action to | :55:22. | :55:25. | |
restore their civil society and get rid of individuals who are behaving | :55:26. | :55:28. | |
appallingly. Dominic Grieve, thank you. | :55:29. | :55:31. | |
It was in the summer of 2012 that the Yes Scotland and Better Together | :55:32. | :55:34. | |
Now, after more than two years of debates, leafleting, | :55:35. | :55:37. | |
white papers, devolution offers, and the occasional egging, | :55:38. | :55:39. | |
It all comes down to the votes cast tomorrow - let's look back at the | :55:40. | :55:43. | |
We owe the Scottish people something that is fair, legal and decisive. | :55:44. | :56:10. | |
Ladies and gentlemen, that was quite a launch. Let's make sure it is | :56:11. | :56:17. | |
quite a campaign. Thank you. Chairing this campaign is one of the | :56:18. | :56:21. | |
most important things I have ever done in politics. On Thursday the | :56:22. | :56:28. | |
18th of September 2014, we will hold Scotland's referendum. An historic | :56:29. | :56:31. | |
day where the people will decide Scotland's future. | :56:32. | :56:36. | |
I think the first debate should be between the First Minister of | :56:37. | :56:39. | |
Scotland who wants independence and the Prime Minister of the UK who is | :56:40. | :56:42. | |
trying to stop Scotland getting independents. Thank you very, very | :56:43. | :56:52. | |
much and Scotland, stay with us. I could not, as Chancellor, recommend | :56:53. | :56:54. | |
that we could share the pound could not, as Chancellor, recommend | :56:55. | :56:58. | |
an independent Scotland. Scotland could not keep the pound if it | :56:59. | :57:03. | |
chooses independence. It is clear to me that a currency union would not | :57:04. | :57:07. | |
work for Scotland if it wasn't dependent. It would not work for the | :57:08. | :57:12. | |
rest of the UK. We are in a campaign. It is the interests of Ed | :57:13. | :57:17. | |
Balls and Danny Alexander to talk up what they describe as uncertainty. | :57:18. | :57:21. | |
We are making the case for something which is right for the rest of the | :57:22. | :57:30. | |
UK as well. Any eight-year-old can tell you the flag of the country, | :57:31. | :57:36. | |
the capital of the country and the currency. I assume the flag is the | :57:37. | :57:40. | |
Saltire, I assume the capital will be Edinburgh but you cannot tell us | :57:41. | :57:46. | |
what the currency is. They cannot stop us using the pound. The most | :57:47. | :57:51. | |
important revelation in the debate this evening. We want Scotland to | :57:52. | :57:56. | |
win the Yeses vote to separate from England. I will nominate David | :57:57. | :58:09. | |
Cameron. This weekend poll put the Yeses campaign slightly ahead for | :58:10. | :58:16. | |
the first time. We are proposing that we agree a programme that the | :58:17. | :58:20. | |
Scottish Parliament should have increased powers. Tomorrow, the | :58:21. | :58:24. | |
right place to be is not in Westminster at Prime Minister 's | :58:25. | :58:28. | |
questions, it is in Scotland. We have the entire Westminster | :58:29. | :58:34. | |
Establishment in a total panic. If you are fed up with the effing | :58:35. | :58:44. | |
Tories, give them a kicking, this is totally different from a general | :58:45. | :58:48. | |
election. It is about the next century. | :58:49. | :58:49. | |
That's all for today. Thanks to our guests. | :58:50. | :58:51. | |
The one o'clock news is starting over on BBC One now. | :58:52. | :58:54. | |
I'll be here at noon tomorrow with all the | :58:55. | :58:57. |