26/09/2014 Daily Politics


26/09/2014

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This is not a threat on the far side of the world. Left unchecked we'll

:00:09.:00:16.

face a terrorist caliphate on the shores of the Mediterranean and

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bordering a NATO member with a declared and proven determination to

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attack our country and our people. Afternoon folks,

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welcome to the Daily Politics. David Cameron has just told the

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House of Commons that Britain must join the international military

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action against Islamic State The Prime Minister urges MPs to back

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a Commons' motions authorising the RAF to join America, France and Arab

:01:13.:01:16.

nations in airstrikes against ISIS. Labour will support action in Iraq -

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but not Syria - as the Defence Decretary warns that UK involvement

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will be for "the long haul". Also on today's programme -

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UKIP announce a series of tax policies as the party meets for

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its autumn conference in Doncaster. We'll talk to UKIP's

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deputy leader live. All that in the next hour and with

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us for the duration we're joined by the Guardian's Zoe Williams

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and the Spectator's Hugo Rifkind. So, just over an hour ago the House

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of Commons was recalled for an emergency debate on British

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involvement in airstrikes against so-called Islamic State

:01:47.:01:50.

militants in Iraq. The Prime Minister got to

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his feet at 10.30 and set out He said Islamic State posed a direct

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threat to the British people and that military action against IS will

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take "not just months but years". He said the brutality of Islamic

:02:02.:02:07.

State militants was "staggering." We'll bring you some of what the PM

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has been saying in just a moment. With both front benches supporting

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intervention, there's no doubt the motion will be passed, though

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there will be rebels on both sides. British airstrikes could

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begin before the day is out. Is this sensible, Zoe? Sensible,

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wow. There is a word. The diagnosis of is correct, it is an appalling

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group, it is an appalling situation, there is no reason to believe their

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ambitions aren't what they say they are. Their other ambition is to draw

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the West into conflict, as Mali did. All the techniques and all the

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pantomime brutality is the same. It is a kind of stated intent to mire

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the West in a new Gulf War. I think you need to consider whether you are

:03:07.:03:12.

just playing into their hands. The British political establishment

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regards this as a really important decision. Does anybody really, in

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the rest of the world? It is an important decision for Britain T

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makes precious little difference to the Islamic state whether Britain is

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involved or not. But it matters to Britain whether or not we continue

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to have this involved role at America's shoulder. We are way

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behind this time. The French are in before. Five Arab nations are

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involved. It is their part of the world. The British contribution is

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going to be six ageinger to err tore tie know jets. -- six ageing Tor

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anyway doe jets. -- Tornadoe jets. There isn't much Cameron could have

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done. Are you surprised that Mr Miliband is backing the Government

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on this? The problem is, with Labour's situation, that by backing

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the Government, they bring their Syria position into scrutiny. What

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were the principles by which you refuse intervention in Syria, if

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they don't hold here? You are supporting America's intervention in

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Syria? A brutal dictator, a savage situation. Then, I think they voted

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against in caped of - to redeem themselves over the 2003 Iraq war.

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-- voted against in case of. Now they have done all that works

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everyone seems to be going in on Al-Sadr's side - Assad's side in

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order to fight IS. It looks like a shambles, and unfortunately for the

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Labour Party, more of a shambles on their side than it does on

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Cameron's. The Defence Minister, the Government, Mr Cameron saying we are

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in for the long haul, this could be years. Well, on what basis could

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Britain sustain years of this? We only have seven combat-ready

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squadrons and we have very little ordnance N Libya there were --.

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Ordnance N Libya there were 250 Tomahawk cruise missiles fired.

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Britain accounted for seven. I thought Miliband made a good point.

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He said there is a world of intervention designed to destabilise

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a government in the hope that something comes better and one to

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support a government. Labour's position makes more sense than many

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credit with. But again, it is a question of whether Britain can have

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an effective role. The Saudis have 300 state-of-the-art aircraft. It is

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bigger Air Force than the RAF. Where are they? Other than one or two

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tokens? It is the bombing Prince. They support ISIS. That's where they

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are. They used to. The government doesn't now. They created a monster

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earlier on Who hasn't created a monster? That's the problem. ISIS

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are using American arms. That's what they took from the Iraqi Army. The

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Americans didn't give them the arms This is part of why they keep trying

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to draw the West into the debate. What is the evidence they are trying

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to draw us in, as opposed to creating a caliphate. You said that

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twice. I don't see the evidence. They don't want to be bombed by

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F-22s It is a given. Why else would they concentrate on Western hostages

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and sending very... Because that's what they do. They are not

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concentrating on Western hostages. The media is concentrating on

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Western Hodges. -- western hostages. There are Arabs being beheaded and

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crucified every day Why would they send those videos to Obama, it is a

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standard tactic? It was said when the Americans invaded the fist time

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- you have the watches but we have the time. They know they can draw in

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firepower and they will be there in ten years when the Western

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governments have left. It would have been relatively easy for them to put

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out the message - we are establishing our horrific state and

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that's not your problem N in the -- in the manner in which the Taliban

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tried to do first of all. You are assuming too much agency and plan

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here to what is essentially a rag tag of militants and terrorists A

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very large rag tag, though. Absolutely. It is well-established

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this. Isn't a new group distinct from Al-Qaeda, is it? It is all the

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same people, led by a different man. It's Morphed. OK. Let's move on, we

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need to take more of a look at the detail of the story.

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We Z -- we do.

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So let's take a look at this story in more detail.

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The motion being debated in Parliament today is narrow

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in remit - confining airstrikes against Islamic State to Iraq.

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It also rules out ground troops in combat operations.

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The Government has said that another Commons? vote would be required

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However, earlier this week, Labour leader Ed Miliband suggested

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that such action would require a UN Security Council resolution to

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The first aircraft to be deployed would likely be six RAF Tornado GR4

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fighter bombers, currently stationed in Cyprus.

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US Central Command has so far conducted a total

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America has the support of five Arab countries for the airstrikes that

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And France has launched airstrikes against Islamic State over Iraq

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but is considering extending them to Syria.

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In the last few minutes we can tell you Denmark is also to commit seven

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F-15 fighter jets. Well David Cameron took 45 minutes

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to set out the case for action. Isil has murdered one British

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hostage and is threatening the lives of two more. The first terrorist

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attacks in Europe have taken place with the attack on the Jewish museum

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in Brussels. Security Services have disrupted six known plots in Europe

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as well as a terrorist attack in Australia, aimed at civilians

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including British and American tourists. Isil, is a terrorist

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organisation unlike those we have dealt with before. The brutality is

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staggering, beheadings, Crucifixions, the gouging out of

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eyes, use of rain as a weapon and slaughtering of children. They all

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belong in the dark ages. It is not just the brutality. It is backed by

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billions of dollars and has captured an arsenal of the most modern

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weapons. In the space of a few months, ISIL has taken control of a

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territory. It has already attacked Lebanon and boasts of its designs

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right up to the Turkish border. This is not a threat on the far side of

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the world. Left unchecked, we will face a terrorist caliphate on the

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shores of the Mediterranean, and bordering a NATO member, with a

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declared and proven determination to attack our country, and our people.

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This is not the stuff of fantasy. It is happening in front of us and we

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need to face up to it. Next, is there a clear,

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comprehensive plan? Yes. It starts at home with tough, uncompromising

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action to prevent attacks and hunt down those who are planning them. As

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the House knows, we are introducing new powers, these include

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strengthening our ability to seize passports and to stop suspects

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travel. It includes stripping British nationality from dual

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nationals and ensuring airlines comply with our no-fly list. In all

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of this we are being clear about the cause of the terrorist threat we

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face. As I have said before, that means defeating the poisonous

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ideology of Islamist extremism by tackling all extremists not just the

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violent extremists. So we are banning preachers of hate, and

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stopping people from inciting hatred in our schools, universities and

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prisons. Now, of course, some will say any action you take will further

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radicalise young people. I have to say this is a counsel of despair.

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Threat of radicalisation is already here. Young people have left our

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country to go and fight with these extremists. We must take action at

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home. But we also also have a comprehensive strategy to defeat

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these extremists abroad. Can I ask a question.

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Two questions he has not put to himself - how long will this war

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last and when will mission creep start? Well, let me answer that very

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directly. This is going to be a mission that will take not just

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months but years but I believe we have to be prepared for that

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commitment. And the reason for that, is I think, quite rightly, America,

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Britain and others, are not contemplating putting combat troops

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on the ground. There will be troops on the ground but they will be Iraqi

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troops, Kurdish troops and we should be supporting them in all the ways

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that I will describe. Labour are backing British

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airstrikes in Iraq, but not Syria. ! -- Intervention has risks but a

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dismembered Iraq will be more dangerous for Britain. I felt

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unchecked, as my honourable friend said -- Isil, unchecked means more

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persecution of the be innocent. This is this point - if we say it people

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we will pass by on this one t makes it far harder to persuade other Arab

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countries to play their part. People across the House has been saying it

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has to be done in the neighbourhood, we have to engage the region, but if

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we say - it is nothing to do with us, we will not intervene, it surely

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means we have less moral authority to say - we want you to play your

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part as W finally, Mr Speaker, we --. As well. Finally we should pride

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ourselves in our part of internationalism. That's when

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Britain is at its best. I want to say something about the underlying

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reasons and I think we should confront it directly, the 2003 war

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in Iraq. I understand why some who were in the House at the time will

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wonder if this is a repeat of that experience. In my view it is not,

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and it is worth setting out why. First, as the Prime Minister said,

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this case is about supporting a democratic state. It is not about

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overturning an existing regime and trying to build a new one from the

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rubble. A much harder undertaking. Second, there is no debate for legal

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action in Iraq as there was in 20003. Thirdly, there is no argument

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bomb whether military action is a last resort. Whatever side of this

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debate we are on, nobody is saying let's negotiate with IS. They are

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not people you can negotiate with. Fourth, there has been brought

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international support, not a divided world. All 23 Arab states and the

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Arab League providing support and five Arab states taking part in

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action. Fifth, there is no question of British ground troops being

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deployed. So, I understand the wariness there will be in the House

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and in the country about 2003 and whether this is a repeat but on

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those five grounds, it is not, and it is demonstrably not.

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We can talk now to our assistant political editor, Norman Smith,

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We have heard a flavour there from David Cameron and Ed Miliband. Can

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you give us a feel of the tone of the debate and the interventions

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from MPs, most of whom we assume are backing this motion?

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They may be backing it but there is no disguising widespread unease

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about where this is going to end. My sense is one should not be fooled by

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the skill of the majority Mr Cameron will get tonight. There is real

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disquiet about where this is going to end up. If you listen to

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Conservative MPs, many of them take a view that the strategy at the

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moment is half baked. And why? Because it is confined to Iraq. They

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make the point that ISIS's main base is in Syria and in time we will have

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to go into there. On the Labour side, there is a fear of Mission

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Creep. Mr Cameron sketched out an inordinately long campaign. That's

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going on for years, but he said that future prime ministers would also

:15:53.:15:55.

have to confront Islamist extremism. Already we can see one clear line of

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disagreement are merging between Mr Cameron and Ed Miliband, and that is

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Syria. Ed Miliband was clear that if there is any move to go into Syria,

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which Mr Cameron believes there is, he would want UN authorisation. He

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questions, who are the ground troops who are going to fight in Syria? And

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he doubts there is a route map. Quickly, you can see how this

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consensus over the immediate action in Iraq could fracture as soon as we

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go beyond that. Against the background you have just explained,

:16:30.:16:34.

of disquiet amongst MPs, give us an idea of the scale of what Britain is

:16:35.:16:39.

contributing militarily compared to the US, for example? It is

:16:40.:16:44.

miniscule. We are talking about half a dozen Tornado jets flying off from

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Cyprus. It is symbolic. It is meant to be politically symbol. Mr

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Cameron's view is that if we are serious, we will have to engage in

:16:58.:17:00.

Syria. That is where the real fighting is taking place at the

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moment. Mr Carman was clear that he believes there is more we can do. #

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Mr Cameron. He knows he has to come back to Parliament to get the

:17:10.:17:13.

authorisation and he may face a much tougher struggle. Very briefly, he

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did say that if he thought there was a pressing humanitarian situation

:17:20.:17:22.

and British interests were at stake, he would act first and then come to

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parliament for approval. Unhappiness about that. What was the reaction?

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That opens up a completely different line of attack, if he can go ahead

:17:33.:17:37.

under the guise of humanitarian reasons or national-security, he can

:17:38.:17:40.

go ahead and Britain will join the bombing in Syria before they get any

:17:41.:17:48.

say-so from Parliament. He was picked up on that by Peter appeared

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-- Peter Hain, who believes we will have to go ahead on Syria. Mr

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Cameron said that we would have to act but he would come quickly to the

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House of Commons to seek authorisation. I would be careful

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about reading too much into it. I think he believes there is a

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pressing emergency, where the ministry are saying, we have to go

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now, and he expects that within hours parliament would confirm the

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action. Looking at the other players involved, they are not having to go

:18:21.:18:25.

through quite the same parliamentary procedure as Britain, when they are

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contributing a small might militarily? No one is out from under

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the shadow of Iraq. The debate is shaped by the Tony Blair experience

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and that is why the government have gone down this very meticulous and

:18:44.:18:46.

painstaking approach of coming up with a very tightly circumscribed

:18:47.:18:53.

motion. Only in Iraq, no ground troops, publishing the legal advice,

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because they looked at what happened in 2003 to make sure they do not

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make the mistakes again. Why are we having to go through this process?

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Because of Iraq and Tony Blair. What about the party divisions. OK, they

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will pass the motion today, but with divisions within the Labour Party

:19:14.:19:17.

and Conservative Party, presumably Labour have more of a divide than

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the Tories? This could become a real issue for Ed Miliband. The party, at

:19:24.:19:27.

the moment, the number of people who will vote against tonight are a

:19:28.:19:32.

campaign group plus a few others, 20 or 30. But there are many who are

:19:33.:19:36.

deeply uneasy about why they are going. The reason for that is Iraq

:19:37.:19:43.

and Tony Blair. It is scarred on the soul of the Labour Party. That is

:19:44.:19:50.

remembered deeply. If we are into another protracted conflict I would

:19:51.:19:55.

not be surprised if user opposition within the Labour Party here and

:19:56.:19:58.

also, within the country. You would wonder what the appetite would be

:19:59.:20:03.

amongst Labour Party activists and supporters for engaging in another

:20:04.:20:09.

long conflict. Lets talk briefly about the Liberal Democrats. We have

:20:10.:20:12.

not heard from Nick Clegg and we know they had a firm and her war

:20:13.:20:19.

stance against Iraq. -- anti-war stance. Now, they are supporting

:20:20.:20:26.

this? We have only heard from Menzies Campbell at the moment but I

:20:27.:20:28.

would be interested to hear what Charles Kennedy will make of this.

:20:29.:20:36.

Nick Clegg when doing his radio show yesterday was indicating that he

:20:37.:20:39.

also thought they would have to go into Syria. I wonder whether we

:20:40.:20:43.

might see a gap emerging there between Nick Clegg and those around

:20:44.:20:48.

him, and the party in the country. One of the reasons the Lib Dems

:20:49.:20:51.

gained so much support in recent elections was because of their

:20:52.:20:57.

stance on Iraq. If they do a flip over that, it will only hack away

:20:58.:21:02.

even more at Lib Dem electoral support. Thank you.

:21:03.:21:08.

Vernon Coaker joins us live from Westminster. Welcome to the

:21:09.:21:16.

programme. The Americans have been bombing Iraq for six weeks, with the

:21:17.:21:22.

most sophisticated air strikes that exist anywhere in the world, yet

:21:23.:21:27.

Islamic has not lost an inch of ground. What difference will six

:21:28.:21:33.

British tornadoes make? What has happened as a result of the US air

:21:34.:21:37.

strikes and Britain, if the vote goes the right way to date will join

:21:38.:21:41.

in, has been to stabilise the situation and prevent the further

:21:42.:21:47.

advantage of ISIL in Iraq and as a consequence, give an opportunity to

:21:48.:21:53.

the ground troops in terms of the Iraqi National Army and the

:21:54.:21:59.

Peshmerga to organise strikes. Also, they can push back I sought when the

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time is right. You say stabilise the situation, Islamic State has not

:22:07.:22:11.

given up ground and two days ago they captured an Iraqi army base

:22:12.:22:17.

west of Baghdad. In what way are the strikes making a difference and why

:22:18.:22:20.

would the tornadoes make a difference? If it weren't for the

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air strikes, the situation in Iraq would be far worse in terms of the

:22:26.:22:31.

advance of ISIL. That is what the Iraqi government have said and what

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the Kurdistan regional government have said as well. They have

:22:36.:22:39.

welcomed the air strikes and said they have made a significant

:22:40.:22:45.

difference to what has happened. It has given an opportunity for forces

:22:46.:22:49.

in Iraq to regroup and push ISIL back. I put the point, you can only

:22:50.:22:53.

imagine what the situation would have been without US air strikes.

:22:54.:22:57.

The Americans do not think the Iraqi army will not be in shape to fight

:22:58.:23:03.

properly this side of New Year? Everyone knows there is work to be

:23:04.:23:10.

done with the Iraqi army. How long? That is a matter for the military

:23:11.:23:16.

advisers. They have said not this side of New Year. The Iraqi army is

:23:17.:23:22.

still losing to Islamic State and now six British tornadoes have

:23:23.:23:28.

become part of its air force. As soon as possible, the Iraqi National

:23:29.:23:34.

Army will be put into shape to enable them to push back. The

:23:35.:23:38.

changes I refer to, the Iraqi government needs to demonstrate to

:23:39.:23:42.

the Iraqi army and the people that they are an inclusive government and

:23:43.:23:45.

different to the last of mud. That will help to restore morale in the

:23:46.:23:50.

army, which the air strikes are also doing. It is an important part of

:23:51.:23:54.

that range of different actions that are being taken, with the Iraqi

:23:55.:24:01.

government and the Iraqi National Army and the Peshmerga, to push ISIL

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back. Do you believe we could be in for the long haul? We are talking

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about years, not just months. What we need to recognise is that this is

:24:13.:24:18.

an action that we are going to be involved with and the important

:24:19.:24:21.

thing to stay is that we would want to see that through. We would want

:24:22.:24:25.

to be successful in what we are setting out to do. How long that

:24:26.:24:30.

takes is a difficult thing to say. Certainly, we need to be sure that

:24:31.:24:35.

we can work with the military so that success comes as soon as. How

:24:36.:24:40.

many combat ready error squadrons does the RAF have? There are three

:24:41.:24:45.

squadrons of tornadoes. On which is going to the knacker's guard next

:24:46.:24:50.

year? Three squadrons of unavailable to the RAF. -- three squadrons of

:24:51.:25:00.

available. There are six at the moment, and there is a squadron in

:25:01.:25:04.

Scotland and in Afghanistan. I am sure the RAF will plan to ensure

:25:05.:25:09.

there are as many aircraft as we need available. Are the American

:25:10.:25:17.

attacks on Syria illegal? We believe they are illegal and that is why we

:25:18.:25:27.

have supported them. -- they are LEGAL. We are looking at a

:25:28.:25:39.

resolution. Why do you imply that it would be illegal to attack without a

:25:40.:25:47.

UN resolution? What I said was there a legitimacy for keeping the

:25:48.:25:50.

broadest possible support for any action in Syria. What we have said

:25:51.:25:54.

is that we have laid out certain criteria with respect to Iraq. Those

:25:55.:25:59.

criteria have been met as far as Iraq is concerned. Syria is a much

:26:00.:26:03.

more complex situation. We have not been invited in the way that we have

:26:04.:26:09.

in Iraq and we need to find a way forward that is inclusive and will

:26:10.:26:13.

make a real difference, and that is inclusive and will make a real

:26:14.:26:17.

difference, but is your party's position that the British cannot

:26:18.:26:22.

take part in action against Syria unless there is a UN resolution? We

:26:23.:26:32.

will make a decision... But you talked about a UN resolution, is it

:26:33.:26:37.

your position that you will need a UN resolution before there can be

:26:38.:26:45.

attacks on ice is in Syria? -- ISIS in Syria? Having sought the

:26:46.:26:50.

resolution, and hopefully it will be passed, we can make a judgement at

:26:51.:26:54.

the time. Of course we need a UN resolution. If it is not passed,

:26:55.:27:00.

does it mean Labour will not support attacks on Syria? Labour would make

:27:01.:27:04.

a judgement at that time as to what to do with respect to the situation

:27:05.:27:08.

in Syria. The debate today is about Iraq. What happens in Syria will be

:27:09.:27:13.

a matter to discuss at a future date to see if the criteria we have set

:27:14.:27:19.

out has been met or not. If you make a UN resolution a stumbling block,

:27:20.:27:23.

you are effectively allowing Vladimir Putin to take hostage

:27:24.:27:27.

British foreign defence policy, are due? Not at all. If he does it, you

:27:28.:27:33.

won't do it. We are seeking to maintain support in parliament, in

:27:34.:27:38.

Britain, and across the region for any action that is taken in Syria.

:27:39.:27:43.

Obviously, that is an important thing to do. We have all seen and

:27:44.:27:48.

heard about the war. There is a sense in which international

:27:49.:27:51.

institutions are not being listened to and that we do not go to them.

:27:52.:27:56.

The UN is the biggest and most important multilateral organisation

:27:57.:27:59.

that there is and that is why it is important for us to be seen to be

:28:00.:28:04.

using every single avenue we can to come to an arrangement by which we

:28:05.:28:08.

can command the broadest possible support. That is what the British

:28:09.:28:12.

people expect. The British people expect lots of things but above all,

:28:13.:28:17.

clarity, particularly when it comes to war or peace. I ask again,

:28:18.:28:21.

because I am still not clear on the party policy, if there is a UN

:28:22.:28:26.

resolution to take the war into Syria and the resolution is

:28:27.:28:29.

defeated, almost certainly because of a Russian veto, what would your

:28:30.:28:34.

party's policy then be? We would make a judgement according to the

:28:35.:28:38.

criteria we have laid out. You know the criteria, what would the policy

:28:39.:28:48.

be? It would be to make a judgement at that time. Why can you not make

:28:49.:28:51.

it now? You know the facts. I would suggest that we do not know and we

:28:52.:28:55.

would have to look at them as they evolve over the next days and weeks.

:28:56.:29:00.

We have to maintain the criteria we have too prissy the UN route. Today

:29:01.:29:04.

is about Iraq and that is the important thing we need to discuss.

:29:05.:29:11.

Why are we bothering? Our military commitment is minimal, we are coming

:29:12.:29:15.

in late, other countries have stepped up to the plate, Britain's

:29:16.:29:20.

participation is not essential, we are already very war weary. Why are

:29:21.:29:25.

we bothering to get involved? First of all, because we have been asked

:29:26.:29:32.

to by the Iraqi government. Secondly, given the careful way in

:29:33.:29:37.

which we have arrived at this particular position, that commands

:29:38.:29:40.

the general support of the British people. Thirdly, all of us recognise

:29:41.:29:45.

that we are in a situation where faced with a barbaric terrorist

:29:46.:29:51.

organisation determined to set a caliphate, that Britain in terms of

:29:52.:29:54.

regional and national security interests needs to be involved to

:29:55.:29:59.

help combat that threat. You say all that, and it may be true, but at a

:30:00.:30:05.

lot of people forget is not. If it is a Barry caliphate, if you think

:30:06.:30:18.

we need to step up, we should not -- what is the point? The point is to

:30:19.:30:23.

make sure we stop their advantage in Iraq and, working with the Iraqi

:30:24.:30:31.

National Army and the Peshmerga, we will restore the authority of the

:30:32.:30:35.

Iraqi government across the whole of the territory and minty and the

:30:36.:30:40.

territorial integrity of Iraq. That is important and that will help

:30:41.:30:44.

stability and help security and that will help keep our streets safe as

:30:45.:30:46.

well. Today's recall of Parliament comes

:30:47.:30:52.

slap-bang in between Labour and the Conservative's autumn party

:30:53.:30:54.

conferences. It also happens to be the start

:30:55.:30:55.

of UKIP's conference at Doncaster Racecourse - prompting senior UKIP

:30:56.:30:58.

figures to suggest that David Cameron had timed the recall to push

:30:59.:31:01.

their party out of the headlines. In a moment I'll be talking to

:31:02.:31:04.

UKIP's deputy leader about the party's

:31:05.:31:07.

fresh policy announcements on tax. First though, Giles Dilnot reports

:31:08.:31:10.

on UKIP's growing hopes of success UKIP's day at the races is not a

:31:11.:31:24.

conference of standing still. This is a party that thinks it's made

:31:25.:31:29.

politics a four-horse race and is galloping with gusto to embarrass

:31:30.:31:34.

its bigger thoroughbred rivals. Its winning projection is - on On the

:31:35.:31:39.

east coast of Kent, on the he is Stoury. I think they are realistic.

:31:40.:31:42.

If you take those seats and some of the others across the south-east and

:31:43.:31:45.

into Essex, I think realistically, probably 20. That buoyant mood

:31:46.:31:50.

belies a gamble. Can they truly breakthrough? Can they, as they

:31:51.:31:54.

boast, hurt Labour, too? Pockets we have had in the past. I think you

:31:55.:31:58.

will see whole swathes joining together. There is a real

:31:59.:32:00.

revolution. They have to be frightened. They know they are. So,

:32:01.:32:07.

how many UKIP MPs might there be? Or will their much-vaunted earthquake

:32:08.:32:11.

be no more than staggering into second and disappointk the thousands

:32:12.:32:15.

they claim to speak for. In -- disappointing. In any generation the

:32:16.:32:22.

stakes are high. UKIP's opponents say they ared grand standing if they

:32:23.:32:30.

think they are going -- athey are grand standing if think they are

:32:31.:32:32.

they are going to threaten government. They say they are grown

:32:33.:32:37.

up. Part of being a grown-up party is understanding, it doesn't matter

:32:38.:32:41.

how much ambitious you have n a first past the post system, you have

:32:42.:32:47.

to be realistic. -- UKIP has approached a threshold in its

:32:48.:32:50.

approach to the general election. It is more realistic about what it can

:32:51.:32:54.

achieve. It is no longer talking about 40-seats plus, it is talking

:32:55.:32:59.

about the region of five to eight seats. Even that is a little high

:33:00.:33:03.

but it is plausible they will walk away from the general election with

:33:04.:33:08.

around three to five seats. That is That's a hard message it get across

:33:09.:33:13.

to a party impatient and enthusiastic and some say - why

:33:14.:33:17.

crush that feeling? Lets gae back to May of this year, in terms of the --

:33:18.:33:24.

let's go back. In terms of the proportion of votes we had and we

:33:25.:33:28.

were the lead party in terms the European elections. I don't think

:33:29.:33:31.

any party would be acting responsibly, if they tried to push

:33:32.:33:37.

down and say - that is no longer worth generating, innovating and

:33:38.:33:42.

trying to capture. The big fear of UKIP is coming out with the general

:33:43.:33:46.

election, with something like 15% of the vote and a lot of second places,

:33:47.:33:50.

not being able to go over the tlien get the seats. Having said that, the

:33:51.:33:55.

big message coming down from high in UKIP to grassroots' activists is -

:33:56.:34:00.

be realistic. I was at a session this afternoon where an organiser

:34:01.:34:03.

said to activist said - don't worry about losing the seat in 2015. Think

:34:04.:34:08.

about 2020. What might boost the maths right now, of course, would be

:34:09.:34:12.

proving its threat to Labour in a by-election. Of course, the question

:34:13.:34:16.

going around is - what are the odds on another Tory dark horse waiting

:34:17.:34:21.

to defect to their stable, especially if they burst on to the

:34:22.:34:25.

political track to ride roughshod over the start of the Tories'

:34:26.:34:31.

conference next week. UKIP's deputy leader, Paul Nuttal

:34:32.:34:34.

joins us right now. Welcome back. How many seats is UKIP

:34:35.:34:39.

aiming to win at the general election in May? I don't know. How

:34:40.:34:45.

many are you hoping for? It is a long time in politics. We don't

:34:46.:34:50.

know. What we cannot do, as we have in the past, where we have a scatter

:34:51.:34:54.

gun approach where we spread our resources and money thinly right

:34:55.:34:58.

across the country. We have to target sensibly. There has been a

:34:59.:35:04.

lot of region into what our target seats should be. We will be

:35:05.:35:07.

ploughing people and money into those seats. On a good day I think

:35:08.:35:11.

we could do well and send people back to the House of Commons. On a

:35:12.:35:15.

good day - presumably Clacton will be one of them and presumably the

:35:16.:35:20.

seat that Nigel Farage will stand will be another, that's two. Are you

:35:21.:35:23.

thinking much beyond that? Absolutely. We are thinking well

:35:24.:35:29.

more than two. How many more? Jo, if you look at the places where UKIP

:35:30.:35:35.

has done well in the council elections and where we now have

:35:36.:35:38.

bridge heads, right up the east coast of the country, I think there

:35:39.:35:42.

are a good number of seats ready to go UKIP next year. OK, so talking

:35:43.:35:47.

about ten seats, maybe? Well, possibly. It could even be more. At

:35:48.:35:51.

the moment we are fighting a by-election in Middleton and Heywood

:35:52.:35:55.

and making serious in-roads into the Labour vote there. Who knows, as I

:35:56.:35:59.

say, a year is a long time in politics. I know you are going to

:36:00.:36:04.

say I'm talking about a proper politician now, but I will not make

:36:05.:36:07.

predictions. You are becoming part of the establishment now. Please

:36:08.:36:12.

don't say that. One of your new policies is to scrap all green

:36:13.:36:17.

taxes, is that correct? Yes. What green taxes do, in essence, they

:36:18.:36:21.

hurt the poorest in society. You just look at one of the campaigns

:36:22.:36:26.

that we ran in the European elections. We equate that green

:36:27.:36:31.

taxes are putting around ?450 own energy bills across the country. It

:36:32.:36:37.

hurts pensioners, students and the unemployed T doesn't hurt rich

:36:38.:36:40.

people. We want to do away with that. -- it doesn't hurt. We want to

:36:41.:36:45.

set out a fairer tax system for the country. Tell me, what counts in

:36:46.:36:49.

yours and UKIP's minds as a green tax. Give me the list of green taxes

:36:50.:36:53.

you are going to scrap? Well, you know, you will have to wait for

:36:54.:36:58.

those announcements this afternoon, well from Patrick O'Flynn at the

:36:59.:37:01.

movement we are talking about a lot of Brussels regulations that comes

:37:02.:37:06.

through at the moment. We had the issues of carbon capture and that.

:37:07.:37:11.

We want to see a country where tax is fairer, where we can lift every

:37:12.:37:16.

one on minimum wage out of taxation altogether and help the squeezed

:37:17.:37:20.

middle. We will do that by raising the 40p threshold to 55,000. We will

:37:21.:37:25.

put more money in people's pockets. We know people know how to spend

:37:26.:37:28.

their own money, better than any government. That's clear. What is

:37:29.:37:33.

not is what you are talking about in terms of scrapping green taxes. If

:37:34.:37:37.

you want a fair regime, people will want to know what you have to

:37:38.:37:41.

include. You may not know specifics. Will you include air passenger duty

:37:42.:37:46.

in one of your taxes to be scrapped? You will have to listen to Patrick

:37:47.:37:50.

this afternoon, who will announce all these things. At the moment we

:37:51.:37:54.

are showing, we are... But, Paul, your pledge. I will have to

:37:55.:37:59.

interrupt you. But, Jo, Jo, we know that green taxes hurt the poorest in

:38:00.:38:04.

society, they push up energy bills. So are you getting rid of all of

:38:05.:38:08.

them? We want to put money on people's pockets. It is on the front

:38:09.:38:13.

page of your website. You are the deputy leader, as I introduced you.

:38:14.:38:16.

You should know how much we are talking b how much the Treasury will

:38:17.:38:22.

lose in tax receipts and which green taxes are you talking about? --

:38:23.:38:27.

talking about. Hang on, we have spoken about this in

:38:28.:38:30.

talking about. Hang on, we have election. We have said it is putting

:38:31.:38:35.

on ?450 on everyone's energy bills, and hurting the poorest in society

:38:36.:38:40.

most. OK, you are not talking about air passenger duty? Well, again, I'm

:38:41.:38:47.

in the too sure about that. You will have tolies listen to Patrick this

:38:48.:38:51.

afternoon. It is worth nearly ?3.5 billion a year to the Treasury. It

:38:52.:38:54.

depends what your definition of a green tax is. Accord together office

:38:55.:39:00.

of national statistics, it is a tax on petrol or passenger flight that

:39:01.:39:05.

has a proven negative impact on the environment. To till, in total,

:39:06.:39:09.

according to the ONS, based on Treasury figures, the amount of

:39:10.:39:13.

money the Treasury gets is ?43 billion. Are you getting rid of all

:39:14.:39:17.

of that? Well, actually that can be evened off by doing away with HS2

:39:18.:39:23.

altogether. What, ?43 billion? Let me make this point. We can raise

:39:24.:39:28.

money by doing away by 85% of foreign aid which we are giving to

:39:29.:39:32.

countries like India, China and Brazil which has overtaken us in the

:39:33.:39:35.

league of economic powers. We can leave the European Union. There is

:39:36.:39:39.

another ?10 billion per year. The money is there. We want to put that

:39:40.:39:42.

money back into people's pockets and look after our own people for once.

:39:43.:39:47.

I thought that money, the ?10 billion you talked about, from

:39:48.:39:51.

leaving the EU and the ?9 billion spent on foreign aid was going to

:39:52.:39:56.

pay for your tax changes for your scrapping of inheritance tax and

:39:57.:40:02.

UKIP is planning to scrap Taj on the minimum wage t couldn't also cover,

:40:03.:40:14.

?43 billion of green taxes. -- crappage planning to crap.

:40:15.:40:19.

We can raise money by taking off the rich. We will call for a Treasury

:40:20.:40:23.

commission into looking at raising VAT to 25% for luxury items. So if

:40:24.:40:28.

you are going out and buying a car, say over ?75,000 or you are buying a

:40:29.:40:33.

bag over ?1,000, of course we are looking to put 5% of VAT on that, to

:40:34.:40:38.

ensure it is rich people paying the taxes and not poor people. Can you

:40:39.:40:41.

tell me how much scrapping tax on those earning the minimum wage will

:40:42.:40:46.

cost? About ?12 billion. And that's going to be covered also by leaving

:40:47.:40:51.

the EU and the foreign aid budget being scrapped s that right? Well,

:40:52.:40:56.

actually, Jo -- is that right? Well, actually, if we left the

:40:57.:40:59.

European Union, we would be far better off. I give you an example.

:41:00.:41:04.

Certain esteemed think tanks estimate that being in the European

:41:05.:41:10.

Union is costing us ?100 billion per annum, and that's complying with EU

:41:11.:41:14.

directives and regulations. A Common Agricultural Policy that forces up

:41:15.:41:17.

the price of food. A Common Fisheries Policy that has halved our

:41:18.:41:23.

fishing industries since the 1970s. We could save ?100 billion by coming

:41:24.:41:29.

out of organisation. . Do you think all this sounds like it is costed. I

:41:30.:41:36.

can't get detail? It is not remotely costed. UKIP is in the process of

:41:37.:41:42.

doing a strange pivot. They are trying to get their votes now from

:41:43.:41:50.

Labour voters, rs. They are a state-stripping welfare-cutting

:41:51.:41:52.

party. They are trying to find a means to present that in a way they

:41:53.:41:56.

can take votes from the Labour Party. If it doesn't add up or make

:41:57.:42:00.

sense it is because inherently it doesn't make sense. By pushing

:42:01.:42:04.

pressure on Labour, Labour will be worried. The reason it does make

:42:05.:42:09.

sense is an emotional rather than practical one. The far right always

:42:10.:42:13.

does well in times of difficulty because they make everything sound

:42:14.:42:17.

very simple. So they are like - everything is to do with the EU or

:42:18.:42:22.

immigration or both. Everything can be solved with if we pull away from

:42:23.:42:26.

the rest of the world and stop spending money on foreign aid. Now

:42:27.:42:29.

there will be Labour voters who won't look at the nitty gritty of

:42:30.:42:33.

which taxes they are talking about and will think - yes, a lot of our

:42:34.:42:37.

problems are because Westminster is unresponsive to normal British

:42:38.:42:40.

people and too responsive to the rest of the world. That is the

:42:41.:42:45.

emotional position. I can see why they are pushing T what I think is

:42:46.:42:52.

unfortunate for them... -- pushing T what is unfortunate for them is they

:42:53.:42:57.

sound as obfuscating as the rest of the politicians, which is why people

:42:58.:43:01.

liked them. You have spoken about immigration. You have spoken about

:43:02.:43:05.

it. You said - pull up the draw bridge. No-one is talking about

:43:06.:43:09.

pulling up any draw bridge. What we are talking about here is having a

:43:10.:43:13.

points-based system, like Australia, where we can choose who we want and

:43:14.:43:17.

who we don't want to come into the country. We can look at areas in the

:43:18.:43:22.

job market where people need to come and fill these places. What we don't

:43:23.:43:26.

want is a whole deluge of people coming with low skills who put

:43:27.:43:29.

British people out of work and drive down wages. You add to the bill

:43:30.:43:33.

there and talk about the welfare bi. The welfare bill goes up as a result

:43:34.:43:37.

of unfetterred, uncontrolled immigration. Paul, before we say

:43:38.:43:42.

goodbye to you, can you clear up for us, what is UKIP's official policy

:43:43.:43:48.

on British air strikes against ISIS in Iraq. Nigel Farage says he

:43:49.:43:53.

doesn't sport plan to launch air strikes with the Americans and we

:43:54.:43:57.

heard from the deputy Chairman saying she would support bombing in

:43:58.:44:01.

Iraq. Who is right? Well, if I was an MP there today I would vote

:44:02.:44:04.

against air strikes. I tell you why - Audi Arabia have one of the

:44:05.:44:08.

biggest Air Forces in the world, Turkey has one of the biggest

:44:09.:44:12.

standing armies. This is an issue for the Middle East to sort out

:44:13.:44:17.

itself. Bombing doesn't work. Is that UKIP's policy? The fact is that

:44:18.:44:24.

ISIS have made significant gains while America has been bombing for

:44:25.:44:28.

the past seven weeks. It is tokenism. I would be voting against.

:44:29.:44:34.

That's UKIP's official policy. Susan Evans is wrong. Well Nigel Farage,

:44:35.:44:38.

the leader of the party has made this clear, where he stands I'm the

:44:39.:44:42.

deputy, I stand behind him. If we were both MPs, we would be voting

:44:43.:44:47.

against air strikes today. We don't want to see mission creep and

:44:48.:44:50.

British boots on the ground which would eventually happen. That's

:44:51.:44:53.

official UKIP policy. All right. Thank you.

:44:54.:44:58.

Let's get back to the debate in the House of Commons

:44:59.:45:01.

on air strikes against Islamic State militants in Iraq.

:45:02.:45:03.

Here's some more of what's been said.

:45:04.:45:05.

Countries in the region have to take ownership of this battle because

:45:06.:45:10.

ISIL threatens them all. The elephant in the room, for me,

:45:11.:45:15.

remains Syria. ISIL will never be defeated if it is constantly allowed

:45:16.:45:19.

to regroup from its Syrian base. Without either UN or Syrian covered

:45:20.:45:25.

authorisation, air strikes in Syria may be illegal, although they could

:45:26.:45:31.

well be justified under international law. UN air strikes

:45:32.:45:40.

will not be granted without Assad and Vladimir Putin's agreement,

:45:41.:45:45.

maybe President Rouhani as well. I agree it is artificial to divide the

:45:46.:45:53.

problems. There is no doubt that ISIS has to be defeated in both

:45:54.:46:02.

countries. Given that one of the principles of counterinsurgency is

:46:03.:46:06.

to deny the enemy a home base, isn't it essential that we back the

:46:07.:46:09.

American effort in Syria? Otherwise, we will never defeat them in Iraq.

:46:10.:46:14.

For people to suggest we cannot go to Syria is tying our hands behind

:46:15.:46:19.

our backs. I agree. President Obama has been open that he is going into

:46:20.:46:27.

this alliance to launch attacks on Syria and Iraq and it is quite

:46:28.:46:32.

unrealistic to proceed on any other basis. There will be a lot said

:46:33.:46:39.

today about military action and I make it clear that I support the

:46:40.:46:42.

terms of the motion. Personally I think it is rather minimalist and I

:46:43.:46:46.

have no doubt that in the future, we will have to return to this issue

:46:47.:46:57.

and we will have to debated again. When you have a UN resolution, you

:46:58.:47:07.

have to accept the reality that the prospect of a United Nations

:47:08.:47:09.

Security Council resolution is totally remote. Even putting one on

:47:10.:47:16.

the table would be a pointless exercise because of the attitude,

:47:17.:47:21.

undoubtedly to be taken, of Russia and possibly also by China. We can

:47:22.:47:30.

now talk to Diane Abbott and Gerald Towers. They join us from the Houses

:47:31.:47:37.

of Parliament. Diane Abbott, how will you vote today? I will vote

:47:38.:47:44.

against bombing Iraq. I realise that the images we have seen of

:47:45.:47:47.

beheadings and the awful massacre and genocide carried out has made

:47:48.:47:54.

people think we have to do something, but I think a joint

:47:55.:48:01.

bombing operation with America will not crash ISIS. In the end, it is a

:48:02.:48:08.

political issue and there is not a Western military solution. How will

:48:09.:48:13.

you vote and white? I will vote for the resolution, which I think Hazel

:48:14.:48:18.

blears was rightly described as pretty minimalist. I think the Prime

:48:19.:48:23.

Minister made a compelling case which I hope the public will take

:48:24.:48:27.

time to study. The reason I will be supporting his motion tonight and

:48:28.:48:30.

supporting British military intervention is that at the moment,

:48:31.:48:36.

ISIS, or ISIL, are threatening the integrity of Iraq. If Iraq were to

:48:37.:48:40.

be taken over by these people, it would be catastrophic not just for

:48:41.:48:43.

the region, but for the United Kingdom. We have evidence already

:48:44.:48:48.

from the ground forces that the intervention of the United States

:48:49.:48:51.

through their use of air power has been instrumental in helping them

:48:52.:48:56.

contain ISIS. Of course it does not deal with the wider problem of

:48:57.:48:59.

Syria, but the imperative of securing Iraq so that the new Prime

:49:00.:49:02.

Minister can get the political process underway which is so

:49:03.:49:08.

necessary to bring the units of Iraq together, that is why. Diane Abbott,

:49:09.:49:13.

does it not make a difference that Iraq has asked us to help them? It

:49:14.:49:17.

was at the request of the sovereign government. It is not just America

:49:18.:49:22.

we would be joining, we would be joining five other Arab nations in

:49:23.:49:27.

the region attacking ISIS. The fact that Iraq has asked us makes it like

:49:28.:49:33.

one, which has to be a consideration. What has threatened

:49:34.:49:39.

the integrity of Iraq is a corrupt and government which has driven

:49:40.:49:45.

Sunni Muslims towards ISIL. Unless you fix the political problem you

:49:46.:49:48.

will not get peace in the region. When we talk about arming the Kurds,

:49:49.:49:54.

they will fight ISIL in the short-term but in the long time,

:49:55.:49:58.

they want a Kurdish state and that involves dismembering not just

:49:59.:50:03.

Iraq, but Turkey and Syria. What makes you think, Gerald Horace, but

:50:04.:50:09.

airpower can do the job? -- Gerald Howarth. The Iraqi army is not in a

:50:10.:50:17.

state to fight, purse Maiga in the north, but not the Iraqis, and no

:50:18.:50:21.

one in the region is offering to help with air strikes, are they? --

:50:22.:50:28.

the Peshmerga in the north. In this region and given the weapons we

:50:29.:50:32.

have, airpower can provide the clinical strike necessary to support

:50:33.:50:36.

the troops on the ground. Efforts are being made... But where are the

:50:37.:50:42.

troops on the ground? 's efforts are being made to ensure the Iraqi army

:50:43.:50:46.

and the Peshmerga can provide the voice. I agree with Diane Abbott

:50:47.:50:50.

that military means will not resolve this problem alone. Let me make this

:50:51.:50:59.

point, it is terribly important to recognise the contribution that

:51:00.:51:02.

fellow Sunni countries are now making in in an attack on Sunni

:51:03.:51:11.

interests in ISIS. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, these are key allies with the

:51:12.:51:15.

UK and they are in there. Junior Lewis suggested they should be

:51:16.:51:18.

putting boots on the ground and I think that is the correct approach.

:51:19.:51:24.

But you might also see pigs flying over your head. Exactly. It is money

:51:25.:51:30.

from Saudi Arabia and money from the Gulf states that initially funded

:51:31.:51:35.

ISIL and as for the Iraqi troops, the Iraqi troops have proven

:51:36.:51:38.

themselves hopeless. More money has been spent on training Iraqi troops

:51:39.:51:42.

than any army in the world and they have folded. We got that, so what is

:51:43.:51:48.

the Diane Abbott plan to deal with ISIS? You have to talk to Iran. We

:51:49.:51:55.

are doing that. We need to step up the diplomatic pressure on Iran.

:51:56.:52:00.

Also, we need to put pressure on those elements within the Saudi and

:52:01.:52:06.

Gulf states which are funding ISIL. Only the region can solve this

:52:07.:52:12.

crisis. There is an overlying Sunni/ Shia split. There is a

:52:13.:52:21.

regional problem here and they are in the significant players in the

:52:22.:52:25.

region. In terms of political dialogue, they have to resolve that.

:52:26.:52:29.

But the immediate is to stop these people from pursuing their medieval

:52:30.:52:41.

barbarity. It is genocide and we have to stop Iraq from falling to

:52:42.:52:46.

them. That would be catastrophic for the region and catastrophic for us.

:52:47.:52:50.

Alongside that, the political negotiations have to go on. We have

:52:51.:52:56.

got that. We will bring it to an end on that unlikely agreement and let

:52:57.:52:59.

you both get back to the debate. Thank you.

:53:00.:53:00.

Time now to cast our eyes back over the past week in politics.

:53:01.:53:03.

Here's Eleanor with the week, in just sixty seconds.

:53:04.:53:06.

David Cameron took a troop of Tory MPs to Chequers to pacify

:53:07.:53:09.

disgruntled backbenchers over Scottish devolution and sort out

:53:10.:53:13.

This issue of fairness for England, as well as for Scotland, Wales,

:53:14.:53:20.

Northern Ireland, I think is now one that cannot be avoided.

:53:21.:53:25.

Ed Miliband admitted he forgot key sections

:53:26.:53:26.

of his Party conference speech - immigration and the deficit.

:53:27.:53:32.

If I did the speech again, it would definitely be in there.

:53:33.:53:37.

UKIP leader Nigel Farage showed his support for Europe,

:53:38.:53:41.

You, me, everybody should get behind Team Europe.

:53:42.:53:47.

The SNP's Nicola Sturgeon took the plunge

:53:48.:53:49.

and announced her bid to replace Alex Salmond as party leader.

:53:50.:53:54.

And the Prime Minister's going to apologise to the Queen

:53:55.:53:56.

after being caught on camera saying Her Majesty had purred down

:53:57.:54:00.

the phone when he told her the Scots had decided to stay in the U nion.

:54:01.:54:21.

Did it feel like Labour taking the fight to the country do defeat the

:54:22.:54:29.

Tories? No, it did not feel like that. Somebody described it

:54:30.:54:35.

yesterday as it seemed like the final meeting before the conference.

:54:36.:54:40.

They had all had such an amazing falling out, some cataclysmic fight,

:54:41.:54:44.

that had hamstrung them for the rest of the week. It wasn't just Ed

:54:45.:54:51.

Miliband. It was Andy Burnham, he fluffed everything. Rachel Reeves

:54:52.:54:55.

fluffed everything. Lisa Nandi was great but she is not in a cabal.

:54:56.:55:01.

Where they exhausted from Scotland? Was it true, that they were a bit

:55:02.:55:06.

dazed by having put all their effort into the referendum? It struck them

:55:07.:55:12.

existentially. The success of the yes campaign was a research and is

:55:13.:55:16.

of the left and the Labour Party could not ally with it or do

:55:17.:55:21.

anything with it. They could not like that fire under their own

:55:22.:55:23.

supporters, even though they would love that. They were kind of left in

:55:24.:55:32.

this very 90s position of trying to be the centre left, where all of the

:55:33.:55:37.

energy is in the left. They were outdone. What about the highlights?

:55:38.:55:42.

What was the speech of the Labour conference? Good lord, I do not know

:55:43.:55:47.

act smack the highlights were all low lights. -- I do not know act

:55:48.:55:55.

smack the speech about the NHS move people to tears. All anyone will

:55:56.:56:04.

remember the bad stuff, the forgotten passages of the speech and

:56:05.:56:08.

the weird insults to John Prescott. Just people careering around and

:56:09.:56:13.

getting nowhere. Zoe, you said it did rather conjure up the images of

:56:14.:56:19.

what are they going to do about English votes for English laws. What

:56:20.:56:24.

will they do? I do not think they have a clue. The whole line that

:56:25.:56:31.

these things have to be established contemporaneously so you cannot do

:56:32.:56:34.

deform max onto you have worked out what will happen to England, that is

:56:35.:56:41.

wrong. -- evil Max. David Cameron is just trying to pacify his back

:56:42.:56:51.

ventures. Was it just a trick? It is Labour's ten year over Scotland.

:56:52.:56:56.

Miliband needs to sit no, we pledged to the Scots and he needs to go for

:56:57.:57:08.

Cameron on that. He is nowhere. One Labour MP said to me at conference

:57:09.:57:12.

that he was surprised they had not thought of a strategy to deal with

:57:13.:57:17.

the tactic by the Tories after the no vote. Or any other strategy!

:57:18.:57:26.

Cameron was brittle on this. The fact that he came out of it not

:57:27.:57:30.

shaken, but straightaway going, well, I will bank that and fight for

:57:31.:57:37.

England, that was a sudden thing to do. I can imagine them being dazed,

:57:38.:57:42.

but this problem has been around for a generation. They should at least

:57:43.:57:47.

think about it. Which is why it may seem strange for David Cameron

:57:48.:57:50.

fighting for the union and then fighting for England. Does it

:57:51.:57:55.

matter, when he only has one Tory MP in Scotland? Is that it for a

:57:56.:58:00.

Scottish referendum campaigns? Tommy Sheridan said 2020, someone else

:58:01.:58:04.

said they will look at it legally, even with the 10% victory. When will

:58:05.:58:10.

combat? I should not think before ten years but in ten years they will

:58:11.:58:15.

be looking at serious opposition. The yes campaign was born by the

:58:16.:58:22.

kind of mobilisation of votes. Now those people are mobilised, I would

:58:23.:58:26.

be very surprised if they went back on it. It depends what the SNP does

:58:27.:58:32.

at the next Westminster election. If they store made the situation has

:58:33.:58:33.

changed. I'll be back on Sunday on BBC One

:58:34.:58:35.

at 11, broadcasting live from the Conservative party

:58:36.:58:39.

conference in Birmingham. We will be speaking to William

:58:40.:58:45.

Hague. And the Daily Politics will be back

:58:46.:58:47.

on monday at midday here on BBC Two.

:58:48.:58:52.

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