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The start of the Tory conference in Birmingham has been battered with | :00:10. | :00:15. | |
defection and scandal. Can George Osborne steady the ship? There is | :00:16. | :00:19. | |
talk of tax cuts and economic growth. | :00:20. | :00:56. | |
Welcome to the Daily Politics live from the Conservative Party | :00:57. | :01:01. | |
conference in Birmingham. If we cannot beat that shower of an | :01:02. | :01:06. | |
opposition we don't deserve to be in politics, so said David Cameron last | :01:07. | :01:10. | |
night. But after the worst start to a Tory conference in recent memory | :01:11. | :01:15. | |
it is looking harder than it did, especially with Michael Ashcroft | :01:16. | :01:19. | |
helpfully producing polls saying Ed Miliband is going to win big-time. | :01:20. | :01:24. | |
Over to this man, George Osborne, who not the first time is expected | :01:25. | :01:30. | |
to produce a political fix for his party's predicaments. We will bring | :01:31. | :01:33. | |
you his speech live and uninterrupted. Could this woman win | :01:34. | :01:41. | |
this affected Tory voters in Scotland? We will be speaking to the | :01:42. | :01:44. | |
Tory heroine of the Better Together campaign, Ruth Davidson. Who would | :01:45. | :01:50. | |
the Tories rather jump into bed with, Ukip or the Liberal Democrats? | :01:51. | :01:57. | |
I just happen to like Nigel Farage. I have shared beers with him. It | :01:58. | :02:02. | |
does not mean I share the same politics. All that in the next two | :02:03. | :02:09. | |
hours of public sector broadcasting at its cheapest. It is George | :02:10. | :02:15. | |
Osborne's big day at conference, he will be addressing the party | :02:16. | :02:19. | |
faithful just before midday. He will announce plans to abolish a death | :02:20. | :02:23. | |
tax on pension pots to allow hundreds of thousands of elderly | :02:24. | :02:26. | |
people to leave their money to their loved ones after they died. It is a | :02:27. | :02:30. | |
measure designed to appeal to court Tory voters, to get those back | :02:31. | :02:39. | |
tempted by UKIP. Will it work? We have Kevin Maguire from the Daily | :02:40. | :02:47. | |
Mirror. How difficult will it be for this conference to get over the | :02:48. | :02:53. | |
terrible start at the weekend? It's interesting, going round the bars | :02:54. | :03:00. | |
last night, they pay us a terrible salary and force us to drink... It | :03:01. | :03:07. | |
has had the opposite effect as the first defection, it has had a | :03:08. | :03:11. | |
unifying experience, Douglas Carswell was a loss to the Tory | :03:12. | :03:17. | |
party, Mark Reckless was seen as a loner, an oddball, they are unifying | :03:18. | :03:25. | |
around this perfidious act, yet it seems to be a rallying call. And the | :03:26. | :03:31. | |
Chancellor will be getting focus away from these things and onto the | :03:32. | :03:37. | |
economy. Yes, they have more credibility on that than Labour. | :03:38. | :03:41. | |
They are on the traditional Tory ground of offering tax cuts and | :03:42. | :03:47. | |
bashing benefit claimants. I think only UKIP, the Tories think they can | :03:48. | :03:54. | |
beat Mark Reckless. He has a 10,000 majority, has not got the personal | :03:55. | :03:58. | |
appeal of Douglas Carswell. They think if they can beat him there | :03:59. | :04:02. | |
they will halt the UKIP bandwagon. We mentioned Ashcroft's survey, | :04:03. | :04:08. | |
showing that what ever happened last week, it was very flat for Labour, | :04:09. | :04:13. | |
it looked like he might have taken another stumble towards Downing | :04:14. | :04:20. | |
Street. UKIP is the ghost at the feast. It hangs over everything they | :04:21. | :04:23. | |
do, every hope they have of winning the election, every right-wing Tory | :04:24. | :04:31. | |
MP, they look at and wonder who will be next to defect. They are asking | :04:32. | :04:35. | |
the wrong questions. UKIP is a monumental protest against business | :04:36. | :04:44. | |
as usual. It is anti-Westminster, it is anti-politics. Expect to see | :04:45. | :04:51. | |
quite a lot from George Osborne. One that we have not been told about? | :04:52. | :04:57. | |
Some sort of massive totemic benefits cut, it will be a typical | :04:58. | :05:04. | |
George Osborne move, challenging Labour to match his austerity | :05:05. | :05:09. | |
measures. What was the public interest defence in your paper in | :05:10. | :05:15. | |
trapping Brooks Newmark? If you have a minister charged with getting more | :05:16. | :05:19. | |
women into politics but seems to have more interest in getting them | :05:20. | :05:22. | |
into bed, there is huge public interest. There is no criminality, | :05:23. | :05:29. | |
no wrongdoing, massive stupidity, where is the wrongdoing or the | :05:30. | :05:32. | |
criminality? There is a huge question of judgement, when you have | :05:33. | :05:37. | |
a 56-year-old father of five sending lewd pictures to someone he believes | :05:38. | :05:42. | |
is a 21-year-old young woman, trying to meet her at the Tory conference. | :05:43. | :05:49. | |
That is stupidity, if it was a matter of judgement we would not | :05:50. | :05:57. | |
have the ministers in the Cabinet. You went on a fishing expedition. | :05:58. | :06:00. | |
You did not have reasons to believe he was up to something stupid, you | :06:01. | :06:06. | |
just went on a fishing expedition. The journalist says he did not, he | :06:07. | :06:12. | |
had word that about have a dozen Tory MPs were using social media to | :06:13. | :06:20. | |
meet people in an inappropriate way, so he went to investigate. You only | :06:21. | :06:26. | |
tried to entrap Tory MPs. Why? That is where he had his information. I | :06:27. | :06:31. | |
remember bringing John Prescott when he was Deputy Prime Minister about | :06:32. | :06:36. | |
his affair with a civil servant. That was an affair, this was social | :06:37. | :06:41. | |
media. Why were only Tory MPs targeted in this fishing | :06:42. | :06:44. | |
expedition? His information was these Tory MPs, there were questions | :06:45. | :06:51. | |
to be asked. It turned out he was wrong on all the others except | :06:52. | :06:55. | |
Brooks Newmark? The newspapers studied his evidence, that he had | :06:56. | :07:01. | |
evidence to mount this fishing expedition? They went through it | :07:02. | :07:07. | |
very carefully over the week. It has been reported to the new press | :07:08. | :07:11. | |
regulator, which will look at it. I would like all the evidence to be | :07:12. | :07:15. | |
published so you can see all the e-mail trails, then you can make | :07:16. | :07:19. | |
your own judgement, we can all judge at their when everything is in the | :07:20. | :07:22. | |
public eye. You know that entrapment is only justifiable if there is a | :07:23. | :07:29. | |
serious public interest at stake. People might regard this as stupid, | :07:30. | :07:33. | |
they do not regard it as a serious public interest. Andrew, I dispute | :07:34. | :07:38. | |
that. If I thought a minister, unmarried father of five in a | :07:39. | :07:43. | |
responsible position was chasing young women like this, I would think | :07:44. | :07:49. | |
that is a matter of public interest. Does this go on in the Daily Mirror | :07:50. | :07:58. | |
newsroom? Or the BBC? Or at the Sun newspaper, which was awash with | :07:59. | :08:05. | |
drugs and infidelity. For the record, I was never in that | :08:06. | :08:10. | |
newsroom. Will you take a high moral position on this? If you want to | :08:11. | :08:15. | |
take some shifts we can fit you in. You cannot afford me. We are not | :08:16. | :08:19. | |
trying to sound too morally high because I'm sure Mike paper has | :08:20. | :08:24. | |
committed moral mistakes. We turned down the story. It was offered to us | :08:25. | :08:28. | |
then the mail on Sunday, they turned it down as well. The new press | :08:29. | :08:34. | |
regulator, the bar is a little bit higher. We need to be careful of | :08:35. | :08:39. | |
entrapment. In our judgement, and I'm not saying this is right... Let | :08:40. | :08:45. | |
me get this right, the Daily Mirror is using stories that the Sun | :08:46. | :08:51. | |
newspaper and the mail on Sunday turned down? We do not have a | :08:52. | :08:56. | |
problem with the problems the Sun newspaper does have, which is why I | :08:57. | :09:01. | |
believe they did not go near the story. We went over this with | :09:02. | :09:07. | |
lawyers for a week. There will be a ruling, I will come back and discuss | :09:08. | :09:12. | |
it with you happily. Maybe you could get your editor to come. That would | :09:13. | :09:17. | |
be interesting. I am rather lower in the food chain than you are. As | :09:18. | :09:22. | |
usual it turns out the media is more interested in the conference. Two | :09:23. | :09:29. | |
MPs have defected to UKIP, Douglas Carswell and Mark reckless. -- ten | :09:30. | :09:39. | |
Mac. Dan Hannan has not yet defected. He joins us from the | :09:40. | :09:48. | |
Westminster studio. Welcome to this programme. You were not just | :09:49. | :09:54. | |
colleagues, you were a close personal friend. You must have known | :09:55. | :10:00. | |
one of them was jumping ship. Yes, they are friends of mine. It is | :10:01. | :10:03. | |
difficult for me. I think they've made a mistake. I'm not going to | :10:04. | :10:07. | |
disown my friendship. They have acted on principle. Nobody does this | :10:08. | :10:12. | |
kind of thing lightly. They wrestled with the decision for a long time, | :10:13. | :10:17. | |
turning your back on relationships you have built up is not something | :10:18. | :10:20. | |
you do frivolously and they have done it after a lot of | :10:21. | :10:23. | |
soul-searching. You must have known that one or the other was going to | :10:24. | :10:27. | |
jump ship. I'm not going to get into what we discussed before. So they | :10:28. | :10:32. | |
did consult you? I've just answered that. All right, then I take it they | :10:33. | :10:43. | |
did. You say you will not defect, but Mark Reckless said he would not | :10:44. | :10:48. | |
defect either. How do we know you're not fibbing? I am not fibbing. I've | :10:49. | :10:56. | |
explained at length, there are possible parties of government, one | :10:57. | :11:00. | |
will give a referendum, the other will not only cancel that referendum | :11:01. | :11:03. | |
but we'll do it what it did last time, it will void our Treasury, and | :11:04. | :11:08. | |
employment will rise, the deficit will rise again, we will cancel the | :11:09. | :11:12. | |
welfare reforms and education reforms. It is a terrible pity, | :11:13. | :11:19. | |
there are good patriotic people voting UKIP and conservative, and | :11:20. | :11:23. | |
even though combined they mark out half the electorate, because of that | :11:24. | :11:27. | |
split, it looks as though Ed Miliband on the current polling will | :11:28. | :11:33. | |
be Prime Minister with 35% of public support. Let's get a straight | :11:34. | :11:42. | |
guarantee from you. You will guarantee this morning that you will | :11:43. | :11:47. | |
not effect to UKIP this side of polling day May 2015? Yes. Why not? | :11:48. | :12:00. | |
I just explained why. Had the Conservative Party not offered | :12:01. | :12:07. | |
referendum, I would have found it difficult to fight the last European | :12:08. | :12:12. | |
elections as a conservative, but David Cameron has made that its | :12:13. | :12:17. | |
policy. The issue that animates me and a lot of people in the | :12:18. | :12:20. | |
Conservative Party is being able to be a free, independent country, | :12:21. | :12:25. | |
trading with Europe at embracing wider opportunities of other | :12:26. | :12:29. | |
continents. It seems to be the only way to settle that issue, with a | :12:30. | :12:33. | |
national referendum. The tragedy would be if we don't get that | :12:34. | :12:38. | |
referendum because of UKIP, from the best of intentions, they become the | :12:39. | :12:42. | |
agency that prevents us getting that referendum because the vote is split | :12:43. | :12:47. | |
and Labour and Lib Dem candidates form a majority with a derisory | :12:48. | :12:55. | |
share of the vote. But Mark Reckless and Douglas Carswell claim this | :12:56. | :12:59. | |
referendum is preordained to deliver a yes vote, even if it is small | :13:00. | :13:08. | |
changes, he will come to the British people and say he has renegotiated. | :13:09. | :13:13. | |
I agree with that analysis but I have a much higher opinion of my | :13:14. | :13:18. | |
fellow countrymen than to think they will fall for the same trick Harold | :13:19. | :13:22. | |
Wilson pooled in 1975. Ultimately, it will not be any of us who decides | :13:23. | :13:28. | |
this, it will be the British people as a whole. It is already pretty | :13:29. | :13:34. | |
clear that what we will end up with is something very close to the | :13:35. | :13:39. | |
existing terms, we've had 40 years to get used to the European Union of | :13:40. | :13:43. | |
which we are members, the question we will face is whether we remain | :13:44. | :13:46. | |
part of it, they will not be any significant change, we will still be | :13:47. | :13:53. | |
in many of the same policies, but are we happy to be part of that | :13:54. | :13:58. | |
united Europe, the only trade bloc in the world that his shrinking, or | :13:59. | :14:05. | |
are we going to raise our eyes to more distant horizons and embrace | :14:06. | :14:08. | |
the opportunities that come to us as a global nation? That is clearly why | :14:09. | :14:17. | |
you will vote against this, if we get a referendum. Can I just be | :14:18. | :14:24. | |
clear, you think even if only marginal changes are made to our | :14:25. | :14:30. | |
status within the European Union, Mr Cameron and the Tory establishment | :14:31. | :14:34. | |
will campaign to keep us in the European Union? That's a question | :14:35. | :14:38. | |
you'd have to put to the Prime Minister, but my working assumption | :14:39. | :14:47. | |
is that he and I will be on opposite sides because even if his stated | :14:48. | :14:50. | |
objectives were met there would not be any fundamental change in Irish | :14:51. | :14:54. | |
and with the European Union, we would still be in the common | :14:55. | :14:59. | |
external tariff, part of the common diplomatic corps, the justice and | :15:00. | :15:05. | |
common home affairs policy, we would still have European citizenship. It | :15:06. | :15:11. | |
is a pity. He does have the opportunity and he may pull | :15:12. | :15:16. | |
something out of the hat, he has the opportunity to go for a | :15:17. | :15:17. | |
substantially different relationship, something closer to | :15:18. | :15:23. | |
what other countries do, being inside the free market but outside | :15:24. | :15:27. | |
the political union. That is plainly on offer, it is a deal enjoyed by | :15:28. | :15:33. | |
other countries at the moment, and it is indicated that it would be | :15:34. | :15:36. | |
available. For whatever reason, it does not seem to be something they | :15:37. | :15:40. | |
are interested in going for. That's a question to put to them. | :15:41. | :15:50. | |
An Thank you for turning up in Westminster today. Good to speak to | :15:51. | :15:53. | |
you. Which, if you hadn't noticed, | :15:54. | :15:58. | |
is still in tact, Yesterday afternoon it was the hot | :15:59. | :16:02. | |
topic of debate here in Birmingham with key addresses from the | :16:03. | :16:06. | |
Conservative Leader in Scotland, and new party heroine, Ruth Davidson, | :16:07. | :16:08. | |
and the Leader of the House of Commons, William Hague, | :16:09. | :16:11. | |
who delivered his final speech to We must reshape our union, so that | :16:12. | :16:24. | |
each of its nations is comfortable in its own clothes. For Scotland, | :16:25. | :16:28. | |
that means having a Parliament that finally had to look tax payers in | :16:29. | :16:34. | |
the eye. Right now, the First Minister of Scotland have a block | :16:35. | :16:36. | |
grant transferred from Westminster. Their only concern is how to spend | :16:37. | :16:42. | |
it. This has allowed a nationalist Government to spend seven years | :16:43. | :16:45. | |
telling the people of Scotland that everything good in the country is | :16:46. | :16:48. | |
down to them for spending money on it and everything bad is | :16:49. | :16:53. | |
Westminster's fault for not handing over enough. I want a a Scottish | :16:54. | :16:57. | |
Parliament that is in charge of raising more of the money it spends. | :16:58. | :17:01. | |
I want the working people of Scotland to know when they look at | :17:02. | :17:05. | |
their pay check the right-hand column is going direct to Holyrood. | :17:06. | :17:11. | |
A more direct link to what is raised in Scotland is what is spent. Less | :17:12. | :17:19. | |
reliance on a block Brant and a more physically reliable policy. And when | :17:20. | :17:23. | |
that happens and people see their tax sent directly to Scotland, they | :17:24. | :17:26. | |
will hold future First Ministers to account. No more free passes. No | :17:27. | :17:31. | |
more false promises, no more excuses and no more cries of - only with the | :17:32. | :17:35. | |
powers of independence. It is time for the way decisions are | :17:36. | :17:41. | |
made to be fair to all, including the voters of England. And my | :17:42. | :17:47. | |
long-standing view is that when Parliament makes decisions affecting | :17:48. | :17:51. | |
only the people of England, or only the people of England and Wales, | :17:52. | :17:55. | |
then those decisions should be made only by the MPs elected to represent | :17:56. | :17:57. | |
them. APPLAUSE | :17:58. | :18:07. | |
If the representatives of Scotland are well able to decide many of | :18:08. | :18:15. | |
their own laws, as they surely are, then when we representatives of | :18:16. | :18:18. | |
Yorkshire, Kent or Norfolk are gathered together, we have the | :18:19. | :18:23. | |
ability and right to do so as well. The Prime Minister has asked me to | :18:24. | :18:28. | |
Chair the committee of the Cabinet to address, at last, this question. | :18:29. | :18:32. | |
We have begun our work and we're open to the views of all. But we are | :18:33. | :18:38. | |
not open to attempts to evade and dodge this issue for years to come. | :18:39. | :18:44. | |
If no agreement can be reached, then each party must present its | :18:45. | :18:48. | |
proposals to the electorate. So we will argue our case with the other | :18:49. | :18:53. | |
parties, but in the absence of agreement, we will relish taking our | :18:54. | :18:56. | |
case to the country. APPLAUSE | :18:57. | :19:03. | |
And we are joined now by Ruth Davidson, the leaders of the | :19:04. | :19:07. | |
Conservatives in Scotland. Welcome to the daily iks Mr. You are | :19:08. | :19:10. | |
generally regarded as having had a good referendum. How are you going | :19:11. | :19:16. | |
to translate that into more Tory needs more of the border? Where the | :19:17. | :19:19. | |
Conservatives took the looed in the Better Together campaign and it was | :19:20. | :19:23. | |
cross party. We took the lead in places like Angus, and pertshire. | :19:24. | :19:29. | |
Used to be Tory territory. And places in Aberdeenshire and Scottish | :19:30. | :19:32. | |
borders, we have really good opportunities there. If you look at | :19:33. | :19:37. | |
the sort of voting intentions, about 170,000 people that voted SNP at the | :19:38. | :19:43. | |
last Scottish election, voted no. They are the people we want to go | :19:44. | :19:47. | |
after. How many seats are targeting with a hope of winning? We are going | :19:48. | :19:51. | |
to target a number of seats. I'm not going it tell you that number. Why? | :19:52. | :19:57. | |
Because I bear the scars of 2010, because somebody said it was we were | :19:58. | :20:02. | |
well-placed in 12 seats and we got slaughtered in 11 of them. You don't | :20:03. | :20:06. | |
want to repeat that. At conference they did that, as well. I will not | :20:07. | :20:10. | |
do the same. Are you confident enough that, when we wake up, those | :20:11. | :20:15. | |
of us who have been up all night probably and we see the results in | :20:16. | :20:19. | |
Scotland that you will have more Tory MPs in Scotland than pandas? | :20:20. | :20:25. | |
Certainly I hope so, to put that joke to bed. You'd only need three | :20:26. | :20:31. | |
Our great strength in Scotland, our great weakness, our vote is spread | :20:32. | :20:36. | |
evenly. Ourselves, the Liberals and SNP got between 400,000 and 500,000. | :20:37. | :20:42. | |
We got 413,000. The Liberal Democrats got 465. We got one seat, | :20:43. | :20:49. | |
they got 11. It is about being able to build-our campaigning ables and | :20:50. | :20:52. | |
our levels of support in pockets in the way they have done. -- | :20:53. | :20:56. | |
campaigning ability. What is the strategy? Will you fight | :20:57. | :21:00. | |
on a specifically Scottish manifesto in the election? Well, the Scottish | :21:01. | :21:03. | |
electorate is incredibly sophisticated. Which is why you see | :21:04. | :21:08. | |
so much tactical voting. People understand what they are voting for | :21:09. | :21:12. | |
in different elections. You just need to look at the referendum when | :21:13. | :21:15. | |
you see the participation levels and the level of understag standing in | :21:16. | :21:18. | |
politics. People know Westminster is in charge of the economy, foreign | :21:19. | :21:22. | |
affairs, and the Armed Forces, it is in charge of taxation, all of these | :21:23. | :21:25. | |
areas, so we will be talking about that. It is not in charge of - in | :21:26. | :21:30. | |
Scotland - health, or education or huge swathes of transport. So, you | :21:31. | :21:35. | |
will just fire on the London manifesto? No, we will explain what | :21:36. | :21:40. | |
we are doing in Scotland. For us, a general election in 2015 and | :21:41. | :21:44. | |
Scottish election in 2016, you kind of have to have in part, your | :21:45. | :21:47. | |
manifestos ready for both. I'm still not sure what is going to change | :21:48. | :21:50. | |
things. You came out of the referendum well. We understand that, | :21:51. | :21:54. | |
but, you know, you lost every seat in Westminster in 1997. Your share | :21:55. | :21:58. | |
of the vote has not really changed very much since then. What is going | :21:59. | :22:03. | |
to change it anyhow that will be a step change, so that -- to change it | :22:04. | :22:08. | |
now, that will be a step change so the Tories matter Lord Ashcroft did | :22:09. | :22:13. | |
a poll across Scotland and found that people don't vote Tory in | :22:14. | :22:16. | |
Scotland because they think you can never elect any Tories. So they look | :22:17. | :22:21. | |
for an anti-Labour vote. That has often found its home in the Liberal | :22:22. | :22:26. | |
Democrat party or in the SNP. If you vote SNP you know you are voting for | :22:27. | :22:30. | |
another referendum. Lots of people that moved to them won't vote SNP | :22:31. | :22:35. | |
again. And the Liberal party have had a collapse, polling in the low | :22:36. | :22:40. | |
single figures. Are you going to win some Liberal seats? I hope so. | :22:41. | :22:45. | |
Where? Again, I bear the scars of 2010. You hope to pick up seats in | :22:46. | :22:50. | |
the north-east of Scotland, a mixture of Liberal Democrat and SNP | :22:51. | :22:53. | |
territory. There is a lot of lapsed Tory voters up there. That must be | :22:54. | :22:58. | |
parting of your taergting? It looks like you are writing my strategy for | :22:59. | :23:03. | |
me. Thank you very much. No I'm not. You may win even fewer seats than | :23:04. | :23:07. | |
you have if I was doing it. What does more power for the Scottish | :23:08. | :23:10. | |
Parliament look like, as far as you are concerned? I want to sort out | :23:11. | :23:14. | |
the problem that we have had in the Scottish Parliament which is that it | :23:15. | :23:18. | |
has the power to spend lots of money but no power to raise money T | :23:19. | :23:21. | |
doesn't have to look tax payers in the eye. Every Scottish election is | :23:22. | :23:26. | |
a spending competition. And it is not very good for the people of | :23:27. | :23:29. | |
Scotland. It is not right that people who are making decisions | :23:30. | :23:32. | |
don't have to look tax payers in the eye. What do you want? For example, | :23:33. | :23:38. | |
I want to see the wholesale devolution of income tax. All income | :23:39. | :23:44. | |
tax? We want starting grid to be the same, so bar the personal allowance. | :23:45. | :23:48. | |
The Strathclyde report. Exactly. You want a chunk of that to be sent | :23:49. | :23:53. | |
north? We looked at that and we would quite like to have had as a | :23:54. | :23:58. | |
federal field tax. You want a trunk sent north. We would like to empower | :23:59. | :24:02. | |
businesses, lots of businesses involved in manufacturer or retail. | :24:03. | :24:05. | |
They make their money off of selling things. And if there is an incentive | :24:06. | :24:09. | |
for the Government in Scotland to make it easier for people in | :24:10. | :24:12. | |
Scotland it make and sell things, I think they should do it. This is | :24:13. | :24:16. | |
fascinating. It is not that long ago that you promised a line in the sand | :24:17. | :24:20. | |
against any more powers for the Scottish Parliament. What happened? | :24:21. | :24:23. | |
It was years ago and I don't know if you have noticed. But there has been | :24:24. | :24:28. | |
a massive debate in Scotland about exactly the constitutional powers | :24:29. | :24:31. | |
the people of Scotland want to have. You were wrong? My view has changed | :24:32. | :24:35. | |
and for incredibly good reasons. Because the Scottish nationalists | :24:36. | :24:39. | |
have done so well and they looked at one stage as if they were going to | :24:40. | :24:42. | |
win the referendum. Isn't the civil message for Scotland - if you want | :24:43. | :24:46. | |
more powers for a Scottish Parliament, you vote Scottish | :24:47. | :24:48. | |
Nationalists and then the rest of you all run after them? Well, more | :24:49. | :24:54. | |
powers isn't a consolation prize for the SNP. It isn't a coming second or | :24:55. | :25:00. | |
the gold fish you get if you miss at the funfair. This is about securing | :25:01. | :25:04. | |
the UK. Nations need to be comfortable in themselves. The way | :25:05. | :25:08. | |
to ensure it is to vote nationalists. You used to be against | :25:09. | :25:12. | |
more powers. Labour is very iffy about what powers they will give. | :25:13. | :25:24. | |
The one way to ensure Mr Samaras -- Mr Salmond's phrase - we hold your | :25:25. | :25:29. | |
feet to the fire - is to vote nationalist. There have been changes | :25:30. | :25:33. | |
to devolution since it came in. Even with Donald Dewar, he was never | :25:34. | :25:38. | |
going to get something right first time. So we have developed | :25:39. | :25:41. | |
devolution. The people who have stood outside that have been the | :25:42. | :25:46. | |
SNP. We voted, the Sovereign will of the Scottish people, in 1997. Do you | :25:47. | :25:51. | |
want a Parliament, yes or no, tax-raising powers. I voted for it. | :25:52. | :25:55. | |
The only people that handed the power back was the SNP. They hand | :25:56. | :25:59. | |
powers back. They wouldn't take part in a commission, they boycotted it | :26:00. | :26:05. | |
for the Scotland act. They have never been interested in making | :26:06. | :26:10. | |
devolution work. Your Prime Minister has also enshrined the Barnett form | :26:11. | :26:14. | |
Formula which gives a disproportionate amount of money to | :26:15. | :26:17. | |
Scotland. What do you say to the Welsh Tories who get a fraction of | :26:18. | :26:21. | |
what Scotland gets, from the Tories here to the poorest regions of | :26:22. | :26:25. | |
England. Why does Scotland get this money and they don't? We have | :26:26. | :26:29. | |
regional demographic differences but if you have the wholesale devolution | :26:30. | :26:34. | |
of income tax that offers the grant. There is a de-Tubbing method where | :26:35. | :26:38. | |
the SNP are on board. You top slice part of the grant. That will come | :26:39. | :26:44. | |
away. And you fill up with direct income taxation. The rest of the | :26:45. | :26:47. | |
Barnett Formula will still be overpaid to Scotland? The rest of | :26:48. | :26:51. | |
the block grant is made up of the Barnett Formula. But that means that | :26:52. | :26:53. | |
Barnett becomes less important because it makes up a lesser | :26:54. | :26:56. | |
proportion of the money directly coming from Scotland. It is more | :26:57. | :26:59. | |
about fiscal responsibility and something as a centre-right | :27:00. | :27:02. | |
politician, I'm fully in favour of. You are now from a country with | :27:03. | :27:07. | |
three of the main parties led by women And also the speaker of the | :27:08. | :27:10. | |
House. In a part of Britain that used to be famous for its misogyny | :27:11. | :27:15. | |
Well, what can I say, women are doing it for themselves up there? # | :27:16. | :27:19. | |
So what is the mood of conference? Do they lurrrve UKIP | :27:20. | :27:23. | |
and hate their coaltion partners, Only one man has | :27:24. | :27:25. | |
the balls to find out. Ask any Conservative at this | :27:26. | :27:28. | |
conference what they want after And if they don't get it, | :27:29. | :27:34. | |
then some of them would prefer to be But if they had to choose, | :27:35. | :27:40. | |
if they had to do a deal with another party, who would | :27:41. | :27:43. | |
they prefer, the Lib Dems or UKIP? I think it is social liberalism, | :27:44. | :27:49. | |
at the end of the UKIP are Their policies are just | :27:50. | :27:55. | |
not right for Britain. I think after five years we | :27:56. | :27:58. | |
can trust the Lib Dems. Yes, they have let us down | :27:59. | :28:01. | |
on a few things, like the boundary changes, but | :28:02. | :28:03. | |
but we know we can work with them. With UKIP, you have | :28:04. | :28:07. | |
a party where we have the red UKIP, and then you have the former | :28:08. | :28:10. | |
libertarian UKIP party, so it'll be too much of a mixed bag and too much | :28:11. | :28:12. | |
confusion within Government. There was a very definite | :28:13. | :28:15. | |
choice there, why is that? I feel UKIP is closer to us, | :28:16. | :28:29. | |
obviously both being two centre I feel we share similar similarities | :28:30. | :28:32. | |
of distrusting the European Union. What's really interesting, | :28:33. | :28:35. | |
of course there is a binary choice, UKIP or the Lib Dems, is the number | :28:36. | :28:37. | |
of people who go - oh, no, I don't want to answer that one and | :28:38. | :28:41. | |
go scurrying back up through there. It's going to have to be the | :28:42. | :28:44. | |
Lib Dems, I'm afraid. Very definite because I think UKIP | :28:45. | :28:48. | |
are not credible. I think a lot | :28:49. | :28:58. | |
of their people are dodgy. It just doesn't feel | :28:59. | :29:01. | |
comfortable to me. I consider myself to be a right-wing | :29:02. | :29:03. | |
Conservative but I'm pro-Europe and I'd rather dive naked into a barrel | :29:04. | :29:06. | |
of wasps than do a deal with either. I don't particularly know what | :29:07. | :29:11. | |
the UKIP party believe in, so, no, I wouldn't want to do | :29:12. | :29:14. | |
a deal with UKIP. You are thinking about it now, | :29:15. | :29:16. | |
aren't you? No, | :29:17. | :29:18. | |
I just happen to like Nigel Farage. Doesn't mean I share | :29:19. | :29:20. | |
the same politics. He's good bloke but he has | :29:21. | :29:23. | |
different politics to me. I would prefer the UKIP party but I | :29:24. | :29:25. | |
don't like UKIP either. We have a lot more in common with | :29:26. | :29:38. | |
UKIP than Liberal Democrats. We as a party have got quite | :29:39. | :29:40. | |
a lot done in this Parliament with Are you suggesting that with | :29:41. | :29:46. | |
the UKIP coalition they wouldn't be quite such a pushover, | :29:47. | :29:51. | |
as a smaller party? I think joining UKIP would be | :29:52. | :29:53. | |
a backward step. There are so many problems here | :29:54. | :29:58. | |
with both of those parties. You know that, | :29:59. | :30:01. | |
that's why you have asked me that I think they are slightly easier to | :30:02. | :30:03. | |
control than UKIP, if they come in and I don't think | :30:04. | :30:16. | |
UKIP will get a decent number Now, I've got to say that's | :30:17. | :30:20. | |
a little surprising because I was told in Doncaster last | :30:21. | :30:24. | |
week by UKIP - they would say that wouldn't they - that if I asked this | :30:25. | :30:27. | |
question they would walk it. Well they haven't, | :30:28. | :30:30. | |
that's either because the sort of Tory that likes UKIP isn't here, | :30:31. | :30:32. | |
or they are wrong and this big win for the Liberal Democrats, well, | :30:33. | :30:36. | |
about one-third of the people who say they are closer to us, | :30:37. | :30:38. | |
they are more Cameroon-type Tory. Two-thirds | :30:39. | :30:41. | |
of that is better the devil you I am joined by the leader of | :30:42. | :31:07. | |
Portsmouth City Council and Bromley Council. I know that you want a | :31:08. | :31:12. | |
majority, if you don't get one, who would you prefer to be equal lotion | :31:13. | :31:19. | |
-- in coalition with? I am focused on achieving a majority government. | :31:20. | :31:24. | |
I think we need to give consideration to running a minority | :31:25. | :31:26. | |
government, possibly going back to the country. It has been hugely | :31:27. | :31:32. | |
frustrating being in college and with the Liberal Democrats. They | :31:33. | :31:35. | |
speak about fairness and yet one of the things they blocked was the | :31:36. | :31:38. | |
Rowntree commission change, which has meant inequality throughout the | :31:39. | :31:44. | |
UK. UKIP are an unknown quantity. I think it's very difficult... Who | :31:45. | :31:51. | |
knows? I'm optimistic. Should David Cameron have done that in 2010, | :31:52. | :31:59. | |
formed a minority administration? I don't think so, we have achieved | :32:00. | :32:04. | |
some amazing things. You think it was right to form coalition then but | :32:05. | :32:09. | |
not next time? If he had formed a minority government he would have | :32:10. | :32:12. | |
had to go back to the country very quickly, egos he would not have got | :32:13. | :32:17. | |
things through. There have been some real successes, in particular, the | :32:18. | :32:21. | |
way the deficit has been reduced hugely? Actually, it has not been | :32:22. | :32:26. | |
reduced hugely. What do you think? If you end up with another hung | :32:27. | :32:33. | |
parliament, is it UKIP or the Lib Dems? That would be them doing a | :32:34. | :32:42. | |
deal, they did not put me on. If we did, it would be UKIP, because Nigel | :32:43. | :32:51. | |
has a point. What is his point? The fact is we are where we are because | :32:52. | :32:54. | |
of Ed Miliband and the Labour Government previously cocking up not | :32:55. | :32:59. | |
only the economy but also immigration and a whole range of | :33:00. | :33:01. | |
issues that brought us to this place. Why don't we take that as | :33:02. | :33:09. | |
read. What is Nigel's point? Over the period of the last Labour | :33:10. | :33:12. | |
government we have had 4 million people coming into this country, | :33:13. | :33:16. | |
that is a population increase of over 4 million. When you have that | :33:17. | :33:21. | |
sort of increase it has a knock-on effect on services, planning. Is | :33:22. | :33:29. | |
Nigel's point immigration? It is part of it. You don't say he has got | :33:30. | :33:40. | |
points, you said... Nigel, you may have a point. That single point is | :33:41. | :33:46. | |
about immigration? It is not framed right, it is about population. | :33:47. | :33:50. | |
People feel the effect of population growth, not the same as immigration. | :33:51. | :33:54. | |
So he's got a point but an obscure point? He is concentrating on the | :33:55. | :34:01. | |
wrong issue. I fundamentally disagree with this, I don't see how | :34:02. | :34:05. | |
you can take seriously a party not yet in Parliament with one policy, | :34:06. | :34:10. | |
pulling out of Europe. Nigel Farage says he will spend more on defence | :34:11. | :34:14. | |
by pulling out of Europe, spend more on the NHS by pulling out of Europe. | :34:15. | :34:18. | |
His ansa to everything is pulling out of Europe. I want to renegotiate | :34:19. | :34:24. | |
our terms with Europe, not out at any cost. If Mr Cameron succeeds in | :34:25. | :34:30. | |
bringing a lot of power back would you vote to stay in? It would depend | :34:31. | :34:36. | |
on the trading agreements, if we would not be hammered by tax, | :34:37. | :34:40. | |
absolutely. If we could not negotiate that point then I would | :34:41. | :34:43. | |
vote no because that would be detrimental to the economy. Do you | :34:44. | :34:48. | |
think the man with a point and Mr Cameron could work together? You | :34:49. | :34:56. | |
mentioned Lord Ashcroft's thing, and UKIP are pulling higher than the | :34:57. | :34:59. | |
Liberal Democrats. There are more UKIP voters out there. That is | :35:00. | :35:04. | |
interesting but has nothing to do with the question I has to queue. Do | :35:05. | :35:09. | |
you think David Cameron and Nigel Farage could work together? I do | :35:10. | :35:15. | |
not. I think David Cameron is big enough to work with anyone, he has | :35:16. | :35:19. | |
worked with the Liberal Democrats, so if he can work with them... Is | :35:20. | :35:25. | |
the answer yes? And are you in the same party? Yes, we agree are lots | :35:26. | :35:30. | |
of things, we don't want to see a Labour government. Why don't you | :35:31. | :35:35. | |
think they could work together? I think David Cameron is a qualified | :35:36. | :35:39. | |
enough politician to go alone, he does not need propped up by somebody | :35:40. | :35:43. | |
who does not even have one MP in Parliament, only has one policy, and | :35:44. | :35:46. | |
that is being out of Europe at any cost. Your government has lamentably | :35:47. | :35:53. | |
failed to hit immigration targets, do you want to remind me what the | :35:54. | :35:57. | |
figures work? If we compare to where we were... There is almost no | :35:58. | :36:04. | |
difference from five years ago. You promised less than 100,000, there | :36:05. | :36:07. | |
has been 200,000. That is only if you take the figures surely as they | :36:08. | :36:13. | |
are in terms of net immigration. That is the figures you set! You are | :36:14. | :36:21. | |
comparing the figures to pre-Conservative Government, but if | :36:22. | :36:25. | |
we had not brought in the changes we brought in, they would be much | :36:26. | :36:28. | |
higher, so there has been real success. You and I both know that | :36:29. | :36:33. | |
was not the promise. Well, we have achieved a lot. I had aspiring | :36:34. | :36:38. | |
Labour politicians and they work very on message, it is nice to have | :36:39. | :36:45. | |
ones that are not on message. It has made my day. I don't think it has | :36:46. | :36:49. | |
done your career is much good but it has brightened up the programme. | :36:50. | :36:56. | |
Whilst we have been on air, Sajid Javid has been addressing the | :36:57. | :36:59. | |
conference. His speech covered the expansion of broadband. To reason, | :37:00. | :37:04. | |
the strength of the British film-making industry, the music | :37:05. | :37:10. | |
industry, arts funding, he made even -- he may be even mentioned the BBC. | :37:11. | :37:16. | |
It is true that we have had to take some difficult decisions and cut | :37:17. | :37:20. | |
taxpayer funding, but because of our national lottery reforms we have | :37:21. | :37:23. | |
protected most budgets, so don't let anybody tell you that conservatives | :37:24. | :37:30. | |
don't care about culture. We do, but we just want to make sure that your | :37:31. | :37:36. | |
money is spent carefully. It's the same with the BBC. We froze the | :37:37. | :37:43. | |
licence fee in 2010. I continue to challenge them to do more with | :37:44. | :37:49. | |
less, because spending public money is a privilege, not a right. I ask | :37:50. | :37:56. | |
myself also, can it be right that somebody goes to prison for not | :37:57. | :38:01. | |
paying their licence fee? That is why I am reviewing this issue. In | :38:02. | :38:12. | |
all of these areas... In all of these areas, there is more to do, | :38:13. | :38:16. | |
but to do it, we need to get re-elected. | :38:17. | :38:22. | |
In seven months, our country faces a choice, a choice between economic | :38:23. | :38:31. | |
security with the Conservatives or a return to high spending and higher | :38:32. | :38:36. | |
taxes with Labour, a choice between a Conservative Party that respects | :38:37. | :38:40. | |
and rewards hard work or a Labour Party that encourages a culture of | :38:41. | :38:44. | |
dependency. A choice between a Prime Minister and Chancellor who have | :38:45. | :38:49. | |
repaired the economy and given it into the fast lane or handing back | :38:50. | :38:52. | |
the keys to the team that crashed the car. We need the country to make | :38:53. | :38:58. | |
the right choice, to choose jobs, to choose growth, to choose ambition, | :38:59. | :39:03. | |
to choose opportunity, and to choose David Cameron as Prime Minister of a | :39:04. | :39:06. | |
majority Conservative Government. That was Sajid Javid. He joins us | :39:07. | :39:36. | |
now. Welcome. Did the Sunday Mirror entrapped Brooks Newmark? I am very | :39:37. | :39:42. | |
sad about it. He was a good friend of mine. I think he made the right | :39:43. | :39:45. | |
decision to leave office. The question of whether it is entrapment | :39:46. | :39:51. | |
is one that I cannot answer. You either minister of media, you can a | :39:52. | :39:55. | |
view. It is precisely because I am the Minister responsible for media | :39:56. | :40:02. | |
policy that I think it is irresponsible to pass verdict. It is | :40:03. | :40:08. | |
possible Brooks Newmark might take legal action and if that happens it | :40:09. | :40:15. | |
would be the view of the courts. Can you discern any public interest in | :40:16. | :40:19. | |
what was done? I cannot comment on this, if he decides to take legal | :40:20. | :40:22. | |
action that is something I don't want to prejudice in any way, | :40:23. | :40:27. | |
especially given my role being responsible for policy. Do you | :40:28. | :40:33. | |
welcome a referral of this case to the new independent press standards | :40:34. | :40:37. | |
organisation? That's up to the organisation, I understand there | :40:38. | :40:40. | |
have been requests for referral. Would you welcome that? The | :40:41. | :40:44. | |
organisation is there for people to make referrals and if that has been | :40:45. | :40:47. | |
made then if the organisation wants to look at it they should. Would you | :40:48. | :40:53. | |
welcome it? It is an independent organisation. You don't have a view | :40:54. | :40:56. | |
as the minister responsible for media? I don't want to have | :40:57. | :41:01. | |
involvement in this. Is there any point in being responsible for the | :41:02. | :41:05. | |
media if you cannot comment? Yes, there is, but when something goes | :41:06. | :41:10. | |
before the courts. Anything could go in front of the courts and then you | :41:11. | :41:16. | |
could not comment on anything. This is something where there are strong | :41:17. | :41:20. | |
rumours today that this may go in front of the court and I should not | :41:21. | :41:24. | |
prejudice that. Coming on to the economy, why is progress on cutting | :41:25. | :41:29. | |
the deficit so slow? Let's look at what the oh BR said about it, the | :41:30. | :41:36. | |
original targets were set by the oh BR. They had hoped it would be | :41:37. | :41:41. | |
stronger. If you look at their analysis it was the Euro crisis, the | :41:42. | :41:45. | |
commodity crisis, other problems around the world, with the emerging | :41:46. | :41:51. | |
markets and growth falling there. That may explain why you've not done | :41:52. | :41:54. | |
it as quickly as you might have wanted to but in 2010 you said you | :41:55. | :42:01. | |
would get rid of the deficit by 25th -- 2015. By 2015, if you're lucky, | :42:02. | :42:08. | |
you will only be 40% of the way there. 60% to be done. Why so slow? | :42:09. | :42:17. | |
Judge me by the deficit, said George Osborne, judge me by cutting the | :42:18. | :42:22. | |
deficit. Look at the process made, -- progress made, we had down by a | :42:23. | :42:27. | |
third. We keep making progress. I don't think anybody thought you can | :42:28. | :42:32. | |
turn down a deficit that is the biggest in the Second World War | :42:33. | :42:39. | |
overnight. It's going to take time. Why are you making progress when | :42:40. | :42:46. | |
borrowing has risen? What I do is look at financial year by financial | :42:47. | :42:51. | |
year. It is rising. I'm confident that the deficit will keep falling, | :42:52. | :42:53. | |
judge that when we get the latest set of numbers. Why has it been | :42:54. | :43:00. | |
rising? There is always a seasonality to borrowing figures, so | :43:01. | :43:05. | |
what matters most is the actual year. I'm confident we will keep | :43:06. | :43:10. | |
cutting the deficit. Even based on the projections, by the end of this | :43:11. | :43:15. | |
financial year the deficit will still be around ?95 billion, it is | :43:16. | :43:19. | |
still very big but we made huge progress. Why have you made less | :43:20. | :43:29. | |
progress in cutting the deficit than the United States, Italy, Germany, | :43:30. | :43:35. | |
Greece, Spain? Why have you done less well than even those countries? | :43:36. | :43:42. | |
For two reasons, we had the deepest recession in almost 100 years. You | :43:43. | :43:47. | |
did not have a deeper recession than Greece or Spain. As you know, they | :43:48. | :43:52. | |
have other issues around their currency, the problems that has | :43:53. | :43:56. | |
caused, we did not join the euro and that will not happen under a | :43:57. | :44:00. | |
Conservative government ever. But we had a deeper recession, the deepest | :44:01. | :44:04. | |
and 100 years in this country. Why were they able to cut the deficit | :44:05. | :44:09. | |
more quickly than you? Our deficit was the largest of any major | :44:10. | :44:14. | |
industrialised economy, 10% of GDP, on hundred Greece had more than | :44:15. | :44:23. | |
that, America was almost that. We also had -- Greece also had a major | :44:24. | :44:26. | |
currency crisis. That makes it even worse! I put it to you the reason | :44:27. | :44:33. | |
you have not cut the deficit is income tax receipts are barely | :44:34. | :44:37. | |
rising and income tax receipts are not rising because ordinary people | :44:38. | :44:40. | |
in this country are going through a huge squeeze on their wages, they | :44:41. | :44:44. | |
are falling in real terms, not paying the tax you thought, able are | :44:45. | :44:50. | |
suffering. That is the reason. I don't accept that. Plenty of people | :44:51. | :44:54. | |
are still facing significant charges every day. Our plan is to see what | :44:55. | :44:59. | |
we can do more than we've already done to keep on with that plan. Back | :45:00. | :45:05. | |
to income tax, you raised that issue, income tax receipts are not | :45:06. | :45:08. | |
rising because the income tax cuts we have introduced, the increase in | :45:09. | :45:13. | |
the personal allowance means lower paid people have all seen tax cuts, | :45:14. | :45:19. | |
the average tax cut is much higher. We have taken people out of tax | :45:20. | :45:23. | |
altogether. I'm proud of that. You might say that is a reason. Even | :45:24. | :45:29. | |
after that tax cut, real take-home pay is falling, it is down 5%. We | :45:30. | :45:37. | |
are heading no 410 year freeze -- we are heading for a ten year freeze. | :45:38. | :45:45. | |
Are you proud of that? Now I am not. We have the fastest-growing economy | :45:46. | :45:52. | |
in the world. I how much have -- I how much have average wages risen? | :45:53. | :45:59. | |
When you've had the deepest recession in 100 years, a | :46:00. | :46:02. | |
contraction in GDP of more than 6%, people will feel your. -- people | :46:03. | :46:09. | |
will feel badly. How much have wages risen? We have had difficulty... It | :46:10. | :46:18. | |
depends what class of wage... I am talking about average wages. They | :46:19. | :46:25. | |
have risen by 0.1% so far. 0.1% after four years of Conservative led | :46:26. | :46:29. | |
government. In real terms, people's wages are still down. I might have | :46:30. | :46:35. | |
average wages risen for people who have found a job? 2 million jobs | :46:36. | :46:40. | |
have been created. Sure, they've got a job. Those jobs would not have | :46:41. | :46:44. | |
been created if we had not done this to the economy. Plenty people are | :46:45. | :46:51. | |
working zero hours... If you want to investigate that, part-time jobs are | :46:52. | :46:54. | |
now more higher than they have been in the past but the number of people | :46:55. | :47:00. | |
on 0-hour contracts is less than 1%, we have more people employed than | :47:01. | :47:02. | |
ever before, more women employed than ever before and I'm proud of | :47:03. | :47:07. | |
that. But people are suffering. There are real wages are being | :47:08. | :47:10. | |
squeezed and it looks like on the current projections we have, the | :47:11. | :47:16. | |
report out this morning, there is going to be no relief for people on | :47:17. | :47:19. | |
average wages for the foreseeable future. The most important thing is | :47:20. | :47:24. | |
that we have a growing economy that creates jobs. We've got a plan for | :47:25. | :47:28. | |
that, it requires difficult decisions, but that will be put at | :47:29. | :47:32. | |
risk if we abandon this plan. That is Labour's policy, remember, you | :47:33. | :47:36. | |
had a conference last week with a leader who did not mention the | :47:37. | :47:42. | |
deficit, he forgot that. If he cannot deal with the deficit we | :47:43. | :47:45. | |
cannot have a brilliant NHS, create jobs... | :47:46. | :47:49. | |
I understand that's the line. It is more than a life. It is reality. | :47:50. | :48:02. | |
Do you know the lowest 10% is just down ?300. ?300 lower in real terms, | :48:03. | :48:07. | |
despite your growing economy. People on low wages are not seeing | :48:08. | :48:11. | |
any benefit from this recovery. If you work full-time you have seen | :48:12. | :48:14. | |
your income tax bill cut by two-thirds if you are on the | :48:15. | :48:18. | |
national minimum wage. If you work full time. That's something, despite | :48:19. | :48:21. | |
all the challenges that we have had, that shows we are doing what we can | :48:22. | :48:25. | |
o to help people in difficult circumstances. The figures I have | :48:26. | :48:32. | |
given you are after tax. They take that tax cut into account. Ethen | :48:33. | :48:37. | |
their real take home pay is lower than it was in 2008. This recovery | :48:38. | :48:41. | |
is not reaching the people who matter most It is reaching people in | :48:42. | :48:45. | |
terms of helping the economy grope and creating jobs. You ask anyone | :48:46. | :48:49. | |
out there - do they want to see a growing economy for them and their | :48:50. | :48:56. | |
children and make sure they wrant to create jobs, and growing faster than | :48:57. | :48:59. | |
any other nation. Did you say anything about the BBC this morning? | :49:00. | :49:04. | |
I did. Good things? All good. I hope you continue after this interview. | :49:05. | :49:06. | |
Thank you. Well, it's about 10 minutes before | :49:07. | :49:11. | |
George Osborne gets to his feet. Everyone hopes is hoping it'll turn | :49:12. | :49:22. | |
around the mood of the conference. Let's see if conference fever is | :49:23. | :49:26. | |
over way. Let's go to Giles. What would you like to hear from the | :49:27. | :49:29. | |
Chancellor? That he is still on course for rescuing the country from | :49:30. | :49:32. | |
the damage done by the last Labour Government. I think I want to hear | :49:33. | :49:37. | |
that he has plans to sustain that programme, so that over the coming | :49:38. | :49:42. | |
hearse, all the people in this country will be a lot better off. | :49:43. | :49:46. | |
Well, I want him to reinforce how incredibly well we have done in | :49:47. | :49:52. | |
getting the deficit down. Too many people just sort of are getting | :49:53. | :50:00. | |
ridiculous headlines. I don't think that the country understwhands an | :50:01. | :50:03. | |
incredible job he has done. Steady the ship. Stay on course for what we | :50:04. | :50:10. | |
are doing. Ton cut where we need to and provide a stronger economy for | :50:11. | :50:13. | |
the future which is what he has been doing for the last four years and | :50:14. | :50:19. | |
and I'm sure that's his tension for the next five years if we get | :50:20. | :50:22. | |
another Government Conservative. Does the death tax cut help? Does it | :50:23. | :50:27. | |
grab people? I think so. It has been uttered around before and I think | :50:28. | :50:32. | |
UKIP have been trying it claim it as their own. I think it is really | :50:33. | :50:35. | |
good. What are you expecting? The same as before. Securing what we | :50:36. | :50:39. | |
have been doing for the past four years and working towards the | :50:40. | :50:43. | |
long-term plan. Given this difficult climate at the moment. It is | :50:44. | :50:45. | |
difficult coming into the election, does he need to do something a | :50:46. | :50:49. | |
little more than just the same as before, or is that the point? I | :50:50. | :50:52. | |
think that's the point. The point is, the whole message of the | :50:53. | :50:55. | |
conference seems to be - look, it is working, stick to the plan, move | :50:56. | :50:58. | |
forward. When you go into an election and he makes a speech like | :50:59. | :51:05. | |
that, does he need to give a sort of particularly good one, or are you | :51:06. | :51:08. | |
looking for steady the ship? Steady the ship. That's the word. Make sure | :51:09. | :51:12. | |
we are steady and going on. Tax cuts. I think he is doing a good | :51:13. | :51:17. | |
job. I think he has actually stuck to the course. Stuck to the plan. | :51:18. | :51:21. | |
And it's actually paid off. You know, it is having that | :51:22. | :51:23. | |
determination of spirit and that belief in what he is doing and I | :51:24. | :51:27. | |
think he's got that. Is he a good speaker? I think he is. You see him | :51:28. | :51:33. | |
on the news and just doing a bit to camera, maybe not as good but in a | :51:34. | :51:37. | |
hall like that, he really gets people going. He has that passion. | :51:38. | :51:41. | |
Well, the Chancellor, George Osborne, is about five mintues | :51:42. | :51:43. | |
Let's have a word with the BBC's Political Editor, Nick Robinson. | :51:44. | :51:49. | |
We understand the warm-up man for the Chancellor is Digby Jones? I | :51:50. | :51:55. | |
don't know if you have heard anything about this. Has he come out | :51:56. | :52:02. | |
as a Tory now? There he is, standing before the conference? He could be | :52:03. | :52:06. | |
pretty Tory-minded. I wasn't aware he was coming here but remember, | :52:07. | :52:10. | |
though he was a minister in Gordon Brown's Government and you might | :52:11. | :52:15. | |
have thought a Labour peer, he never took the Labour whip, so, he said, | :52:16. | :52:19. | |
yes, as a leading businessman and Director-General of the CBI I'm | :52:20. | :52:23. | |
happy to help the Government drum up trade but I'm in the a Labour man N | :52:24. | :52:27. | |
increasing weeks, as you say, he has been critical. He likes to think of | :52:28. | :52:30. | |
himself, Digby Jones as Mr Birmingham. Here we | :52:31. | :52:31. | |
himself, Digby Jones as Mr Birmingham. It is his roots and it | :52:32. | :52:35. | |
might be for that reason. All right, the Chancellor. A lot hanging on | :52:36. | :52:40. | |
that. The conference needs him to turn this around, get away from | :52:41. | :52:44. | |
defections and online sex scandals and back to the economy, which the | :52:45. | :52:47. | |
Tories will put centre stage at the election campaign. Back to the | :52:48. | :52:51. | |
economy, back to what they hope will be n Gordon Brown's famous phrase - | :52:52. | :52:55. | |
the dividing lines with the other side. So, I expect George Osborne to | :52:56. | :52:58. | |
announce a significant cut in welfare spending. They have already | :52:59. | :53:02. | |
been signalling this, haven't they, as a couple of days have gone on, | :53:03. | :53:07. | |
didn't get much coverage because of the talks of defection but their | :53:08. | :53:11. | |
first announcement is they would stop single young people under-21 | :53:12. | :53:14. | |
being able it claim housing benefit. They said the money they saved would | :53:15. | :53:19. | |
be spent on apprenticeships. The Chancellor this morning on the radio | :53:20. | :53:23. | |
and elsewhere in interviews signalled he wanted to curb welfare | :53:24. | :53:26. | |
spending. They have always had a hole to fill, the Tories. They say | :53:27. | :53:31. | |
they need to save about another ?12 billion in welfare spending in the | :53:32. | :53:34. | |
next Parliament before the deficit is eliminated. Physical that happens | :53:35. | :53:39. | |
on time, it hasn't up until now -- if that happens on time. It would be | :53:40. | :53:42. | |
midway through the next Parliament, 2018. He, I suspect, will want to | :53:43. | :53:47. | |
put a downpayment on how he will meet some of that ?12 billion and in | :53:48. | :53:51. | |
effect say it the Labour Party - here is what I will do, will you | :53:52. | :53:55. | |
match it? If not, what will you do? This will be a change not between | :53:56. | :53:59. | |
now and the election but an indication of - look, this will be | :54:00. | :54:03. | |
in our manifesto, Mr Osborne will say - if you want this, you will | :54:04. | :54:07. | |
have to vote for us. Remember his next financial statement is the | :54:08. | :54:11. | |
Autumn Statement. It is increasingly in the winter. It is in December | :54:12. | :54:15. | |
this year. But it is called the Autumn Statement. That's when he | :54:16. | :54:17. | |
sets out the plans. There is no suggestion that the Liberal | :54:18. | :54:20. | |
Democrats, the coalition party will be willing to sign up to new welfare | :54:21. | :54:24. | |
cuts. But this is a waive him saying - this is what I would do if I was | :54:25. | :54:30. | |
on my own, with a majority Tory Government. This is what he would | :54:31. | :54:33. | |
claim he would do and Labour can't match. How worried are they about | :54:34. | :54:38. | |
UKIP and more defections? Of course they are worried. One of the reasons | :54:39. | :54:41. | |
they are worried is they simply cannot know the answer to the | :54:42. | :54:44. | |
question. Any sensible person wants to ask... Well, a, they are fibbing, | :54:45. | :54:51. | |
b, people may not know, c, people may be think being it but waiting to | :54:52. | :54:56. | |
see. In other words, if you are the sort of person who might defect as a | :54:57. | :55:00. | |
Tory MP to UKIP, one thing you might want to do, presumably you are not | :55:01. | :55:06. | |
you haved not made up your mind and waiting for the moment of maximum | :55:07. | :55:12. | |
damage like Mr Reckless, you might be waiting to see how the | :55:13. | :55:16. | |
by-elections G the significant thing is the Tories, behind the scenes | :55:17. | :55:21. | |
scenes are ect effectively writing off the by-election next week, they | :55:22. | :55:25. | |
think UKIP will win it. Pretty extraordinary. In a safe Tory seat. | :55:26. | :55:29. | |
That they'll lose to u kitsch they are putting their energies into the | :55:30. | :55:35. | |
-- to UKIP. They are putting their energies into the Rochester and st. | :55:36. | :55:44. | |
Stroud seat. They they may be thinking - I want it save my skin. | :55:45. | :55:50. | |
They are saying, oh, no, it isn't, it is the way to lose your career. | :55:51. | :55:55. | |
If all their eggs are going into the Rochester basket, and for the | :55:56. | :56:02. | |
reasons you have written off Clacton, if they lose Rochester, it | :56:03. | :56:07. | |
is Krakatoa. Yes and people who are thinking - I quite like being in the | :56:08. | :56:11. | |
House of Commons, how do I survive? Maybe I have to switch party. A sign | :56:12. | :56:16. | |
of the anger here, you saw this phrase used by the party Chairman. | :56:17. | :56:21. | |
He has lied and lied and lied rvings David Cameron was touring the | :56:22. | :56:24. | |
parties that take place, late at night there is a reception for the | :56:25. | :56:28. | |
West Midlands and the North of England and this party and that. I | :56:29. | :56:34. | |
saw one speech, in which a really fired up David Cameron said - I vow | :56:35. | :56:38. | |
to get that seat back to the Tories. I bumped into someone who heard him | :56:39. | :56:47. | |
speaking half an hour later and he said quo, "Mark Reckless got his fat | :56:48. | :56:55. | |
arson the benches of the -- cars on the benches of the House of Commons, | :56:56. | :57:02. | |
because of the Tories hard work." And there is a different approach to | :57:03. | :57:07. | |
Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless? Very simple, they loathe him. | :57:08. | :57:14. | |
Carswell was seen as a slightly eccentric, character. Mark Reckless | :57:15. | :57:17. | |
has been loathed. He has been loathed at university. Like Gordon | :57:18. | :57:22. | |
Brown and Robin Cook. Who was at university? Oxford University with | :57:23. | :57:34. | |
Mark Reckless? George Osborne. Were they in the Bullingdon Club? He He | :57:35. | :57:40. | |
went to a posh public schoofrnlts I don't think he would have been | :57:41. | :57:44. | |
invited. Why do they loathe him? They think he is pious. They think | :57:45. | :57:49. | |
he takes himself much more seriously than they do him and, of course, | :57:50. | :57:54. | |
loathes them back. I mean, part of the roots of this - you always have | :57:55. | :57:59. | |
to look at the roots of this. I once joked I would write a book called | :58:00. | :58:06. | |
how the small snub made history. Mark Reckless tried a rebellion for | :58:07. | :58:14. | |
David Cameron to cut EU budget. When it was cut, Cameron said publicly - | :58:15. | :58:18. | |
your rebellion made no difference, I would have done it anyway. Not the | :58:19. | :58:24. | |
greatest way to keep onside. He is not great at party backbench | :58:25. | :58:29. | |
management. There is a dismissiveness. If you are Mark | :58:30. | :58:33. | |
Reckless, you are - I'm quite a guy, you know, you don't much like that. | :58:34. | :58:38. | |
There is another by-election in a Labour-held seat in Manchester, just | :58:39. | :58:41. | |
north of Manchester. Is there any possibility that UKIP could win that | :58:42. | :58:45. | |
one? Well, certain lay be possibility which, in itself is | :58:46. | :58:47. | |
quite extraordinary. I have not yet had a chance to go and visit the | :58:48. | :58:52. | |
seat. People who have say they think there is a chance. Saving said that, | :58:53. | :58:58. | |
the guys I read and respect and who study UKIP think it is not quite | :58:59. | :59:02. | |
going to happen. He they think UKIP could do well but they don't see | :59:03. | :59:06. | |
them winning the seat. The big thing about Clacton, the at the think they | :59:07. | :59:12. | |
will win, is you have a popular local people, who had a direct male | :59:13. | :59:17. | |
strategy of knowing, by name, a huge percentage of his own electorate who | :59:18. | :59:22. | |
he kept in touch with and asked of their opinions and conveniently all | :59:23. | :59:25. | |
that data, I suspect has gone with him, to UKIP. Now the Chancellor's | :59:26. | :59:28. | |
speech and the Prime Minister's speech at lunch time on late | :59:29. | :59:33. | |
Wednesday morning, they are always planned in tandem. Do we have any | :59:34. | :59:40. | |
idea how they've divvied up the announcements or the overall tone of | :59:41. | :59:44. | |
the speeches? I think the answer to that, but I don't know for certain, | :59:45. | :59:47. | |
is that David Cameron doesn't have announcements. . He tends to do | :59:48. | :59:51. | |
theme, argument and wrap the whole event together. If you think about | :59:52. | :59:55. | |
it, we cannot think of a big announcement since the announcement | :59:56. | :59:57. | |
that he would pursue gay marriage some years ago. Given how well that | :59:58. | :00:02. | |
went down with the Conservative Party, you might think is not an | :00:03. | :00:06. | |
ideal precedent for making an announcement nobody knows about. It | :00:07. | :00:09. | |
is much more likely that the meat comes in this Osborne spee. The meat | :00:10. | :00:14. | |
of a downpayment for welfar cuts, an attempt to put the deficit back on | :00:15. | :00:18. | |
the agenda, to essentially try to claim the Tories are the serious | :00:19. | :00:23. | |
party, the party making difficult choices where Labour they will claim | :00:24. | :00:26. | |
was avoiding the choices, didn't want to talk about the deficit. That | :00:27. | :00:30. | |
will be the efforts, I think of George Osborne and David Cameron, in | :00:31. | :00:33. | |
a way, has it use the fact he has still - despite the fact he is not | :00:34. | :00:38. | |
popular here - he is more popular with the public than his party. And | :00:39. | :00:41. | |
he, I think will try and turn it into a leadership choice. It is me | :00:42. | :00:46. | |
or it is him in number ten. Which means that the Tory election | :00:47. | :00:51. | |
strategy, to be brutal about it, will be built around the economy and | :00:52. | :00:54. | |
Mr Miliband. They are the two issues that the Tories will make the | :00:55. | :00:58. | |
election. We always mock the slogans. Where is it - Securing a | :00:59. | :01:05. | |
Better Future. There is it is. There is an enormous amount of work by | :01:06. | :01:12. | |
market researchers and ad men goes into these apparently banal. They | :01:13. | :01:15. | |
work on that? You might think - what the hell does that mean? I will tell | :01:16. | :01:20. | |
you what they think it means. They think it means the electorate have | :01:21. | :01:25. | |
bought the fact that they have "A long term economic plan." The | :01:26. | :01:28. | |
electorate are suspicious of their motives and they have a feeling that | :01:29. | :01:32. | |
the long-term economic plan is either about the poor or helping | :01:33. | :01:37. | |
their mates. Or it is about getting them re-elected part of the effort | :01:38. | :01:42. | |
is - no, you get help with pension and help with kids getting an | :01:43. | :01:46. | |
apprenticeship. They know the public is worried about security hence the | :01:47. | :01:52. | |
word "securing" and they are worried about the future, in the sense of, | :01:53. | :01:56. | |
will life be worse for my children and grandchildren than it is for me. | :01:57. | :02:00. | |
Every speech has been put through the prism of how do you say to | :02:01. | :02:04. | |
people, it is not just a deficit plan, it is something for central | :02:05. | :02:09. | |
and how do you show it helps ordinary people's children and | :02:10. | :02:13. | |
grandchildren. Of Whether it gets through is another question. Well | :02:14. | :02:18. | |
Digby Jones is still speaking to the conference. They are now run being | :02:19. | :02:22. | |
16 minutes late. Always a mistake, I think to give Digby too much room. | :02:23. | :02:27. | |
He likes to make long speeches. The Chancellor getting warmed up here. | :02:28. | :02:38. | |
Lord Ashcroft, former Tory party treasurer, always helpful to the | :02:39. | :02:42. | |
party leadership with his polls. They are not good reading for the | :02:43. | :02:47. | |
Tories, they see them losing out in a whole raft of marginal seats. I | :02:48. | :02:54. | |
depressed by that, or do they shrug off the polls? -- are they | :02:55. | :03:00. | |
depressed. They do not shrug them off, but it is like being in a race | :03:01. | :03:03. | |
where you can see the guy in front of you, you have a pretty shrewd | :03:04. | :03:07. | |
sense that he cannot go any faster. Their view of Labour is, at their | :03:08. | :03:14. | |
conference they may now progress -- they made little progress, there was | :03:15. | :03:20. | |
no bounce, Ed Miliband did not and to questions about his economic | :03:21. | :03:24. | |
credibility. They think they've got the opponent in their sights. The | :03:25. | :03:27. | |
difficulty they have got is two problems. On the one hand they are | :03:28. | :03:32. | |
bleeding support to Ukip, their traditional supporters from 2010. On | :03:33. | :03:37. | |
the other hand, Labour are holding onto people who voted Liberal | :03:38. | :03:42. | |
Democrat in the past, and maybe because of the Iraq war, because | :03:43. | :03:47. | |
they thought Labour had forgotten the importance of Civil Liberties, | :03:48. | :03:50. | |
they have managed to get 6% of them back. If Ed Miliband can hold onto | :03:51. | :03:55. | |
those ex-Liberal Democrat and if the Tories cannot read Jane the Ukip -- | :03:56. | :04:02. | |
cannot regain the Ukip voters, they will lose. They are trying to take | :04:03. | :04:09. | |
the 28% that voted for Gordon Brown and add-on 6% of disaffected Lib | :04:10. | :04:14. | |
Dems. That is exactly right. That is why there is tension for the Tories. | :04:15. | :04:20. | |
Some on the Tory Right say, for God sake, harden up your promise on | :04:21. | :04:26. | |
Europe, say that you would vote against it if you don't get the deal | :04:27. | :04:31. | |
you want, spell out the negotiating strategy, explain how you would curb | :04:32. | :04:35. | |
immigration, that is one group here at the conference, another says, we | :04:36. | :04:40. | |
need to get the people who have gone over to Labour, that is much more | :04:41. | :04:44. | |
traditional appeal, speak about homeownership, apprenticeships, tax | :04:45. | :04:49. | |
cuts for pensioners. The bread and butter, nuts and bolts issues that | :04:50. | :04:57. | |
might make people think this austerity has been worthwhile. Digby | :04:58. | :05:02. | |
Jones has finished. He is getting a standing ovation for his work. Now | :05:03. | :05:07. | |
we can see George Osborne taking the stage. Two stone lighter than when | :05:08. | :05:14. | |
he last spoke to the conference thanks to going on a diet and a new | :05:15. | :05:19. | |
haircut. Modelled on the Julius Caesar look. Let's see if he gives | :05:20. | :05:25. | |
an emperor's speech. Thank you for that typically robust worming | :05:26. | :05:32. | |
welcome. -- Birmingham. Gathered in this whole other representatives of | :05:33. | :05:38. | |
Britain's great party of progress, the party of enterprise and | :05:39. | :05:44. | |
discovery, of liberty and the law. Of the wide open seas and global | :05:45. | :05:51. | |
free trade. We meet to lay out our case before the nation and to ask it | :05:52. | :06:04. | |
to choose the future, not the past. In broad Street, just around the | :06:05. | :06:09. | |
corner from this conference, stands the statue of the golden boys, the | :06:10. | :06:14. | |
three great British pioneers, Matthew Boulton, William Murdoch, | :06:15. | :06:20. | |
James Watt, studying intently their plans for the new steam engine. It's | :06:21. | :06:25. | |
an image that captures a golden age for our country. When the spirit of | :06:26. | :06:30. | |
invention was alive, when the marriage of business and science | :06:31. | :06:34. | |
made everything possible. A time when we faced the future with | :06:35. | :06:38. | |
confidence and were not afraid of the big and sewers to the big | :06:39. | :06:48. | |
questions. -- big answers. I want to be that Britain. Let's raise the | :06:49. | :06:51. | |
ambition of the nation so that everyone has a chance to succeed. | :06:52. | :06:53. | |
APPLAUSE.. I believe it is personally -- | :06:54. | :07:06. | |
perfectly possible for Britain to be the most prosperous major country on | :07:07. | :07:11. | |
earth. The most prosperous, the most dynamic, the most creative, but only | :07:12. | :07:16. | |
if this generation provide the big answers to the big questions, only | :07:17. | :07:19. | |
if we choose the future, not the past. For anyone who doubts this is | :07:20. | :07:27. | |
possible, just think about what we've done together, these last four | :07:28. | :07:35. | |
years. Four years ago our economy was in crisis, our country on the | :07:36. | :07:39. | |
floor. We did what we Britons do best when we are being counted out, | :07:40. | :07:44. | |
we picked ourselves up, we sorted ourselves out and we got back in the | :07:45. | :07:50. | |
fight. We set out our long-term economic plan and worked through it. | :07:51. | :07:55. | |
And then two years ago in this Jerry Hall, when the clamour -- in this | :07:56. | :08:02. | |
very hall, when the clamour from our opponents was loudest, they insisted | :08:03. | :08:08. | |
we abandoned the plan, we held our nerve and recommitted ourselves to | :08:09. | :08:13. | |
the course we had set. Today I can report this to you, written is the | :08:14. | :08:19. | |
fastest growing, most job-creating, most deficit reducing of any major | :08:20. | :08:24. | |
advanced economy on earth. Britain, we did this together. | :08:25. | :08:39. | |
We made a choice. To leave behind a past of spending beyond our means, | :08:40. | :08:47. | |
borrowing from our children, we chose the future, not the past. | :08:48. | :08:55. | |
We've come this far. The deficit falling, investment rising, record | :08:56. | :09:01. | |
numbers of new firms, business growth, faster in the North than | :09:02. | :09:05. | |
anywhere else. Long-term unemployment down. Youth | :09:06. | :09:09. | |
unemployment down. The fastest fall in unemployment on record, the | :09:10. | :09:20. | |
long-term economic plan is working. APPLAUSE. | :09:21. | :09:27. | |
These are the statistics. Behind each number is a person. In fact, | :09:28. | :09:37. | |
millions of people. Because of what we've done together, they have a | :09:38. | :09:41. | |
job. Because of what we've done together, they run their own | :09:42. | :09:45. | |
business. Because of what we've done together, they are providing for | :09:46. | :09:48. | |
themselves and their families. Everybody in this file should be | :09:49. | :09:55. | |
proud of that. -- in this hall. I don't stand here marvelling at how | :09:56. | :10:01. | |
much we have done. On the contrary, I am humbled by how much more we | :10:02. | :10:06. | |
have to do. The debt that needs reducing, the small businesses that | :10:07. | :10:10. | |
need supporting, the jobless that need employing, the infrastructure | :10:11. | :10:14. | |
that needs building, the better future for Britain that needs | :10:15. | :10:18. | |
securing, we resolve we will finish the job that we have started. | :10:19. | :10:21. | |
APPLAUSE. We know that beyond the confines of | :10:22. | :10:37. | |
all these party conferences, Britain still faces huge economic risks. At | :10:38. | :10:45. | |
home, though we have brought it down, there remains a large budget | :10:46. | :10:50. | |
deficit and our national debt is dangerously high. Abroad, the | :10:51. | :10:54. | |
biggest markets in the Eurozone are not growing. Anybody who thinks | :10:55. | :11:01. | |
Britain can ease up should look across the Channel, look to the | :11:02. | :11:03. | |
countries who thought they were out of crisis, used up -- eased up and | :11:04. | :11:14. | |
is no risk returning to crisis. Then there is the wider world. The | :11:15. | :11:18. | |
borders with Russia are aflame. A terrible virus sweeping through West | :11:19. | :11:29. | |
Africa. We are engaged in a struggle against barbaric Islamic extremism. | :11:30. | :11:35. | |
Our forces are risking their lives to protect our freedom. Let us | :11:36. | :11:39. | |
together salute their courage. APPLAUSE. | :11:40. | :11:52. | |
Any and all of these events have an impact not just on our | :11:53. | :11:59. | |
national-security but on our economic security. These are big | :12:00. | :12:04. | |
questions. They are not the only ones we face. We are also living | :12:05. | :12:11. | |
through an economic upheaval as big as the Industrial Revolution. Every | :12:12. | :12:17. | |
single day, new technologies, new countries, new economies are shaking | :12:18. | :12:22. | |
up the established way of doing things. It's extraordinarily | :12:23. | :12:30. | |
exciting, and we, as conservatives, applaud the power it places in the | :12:31. | :12:35. | |
hands of citizens. It has never been easier for thousands to start their | :12:36. | :12:38. | |
own business in Britain and reach the whole world. But a single | :12:39. | :12:43. | |
application can appear overnight and disrupt an entire industry, so it | :12:44. | :12:49. | |
can be exciting yes, but unsettling as well. This technology brings | :12:50. | :12:55. | |
intense competition that spells rapid decline for any sector or any | :12:56. | :13:01. | |
country that feels to keep up. These are big questions that require big | :13:02. | :13:09. | |
cancers and it is -- big answers and it is our job to provide them and | :13:10. | :13:12. | |
the next Conservative government will. | :13:13. | :13:20. | |
That's what our party has always done, apply our values and ideas to | :13:21. | :13:31. | |
the challenges of the age and March of this country towards progress. | :13:32. | :13:36. | |
That's what we will do again. Labour cannot do that. Did you see that | :13:37. | :13:42. | |
speech last week? Ed Miliband made a pitch for office that was so | :13:43. | :13:48. | |
forgettable, he forgot it himself. APPLAUSE. | :13:49. | :13:54. | |
I have to tell you, in all seriousness, forgetting to talk | :13:55. | :14:03. | |
about the deficit is not just some hapless mistake of an accident prone | :14:04. | :14:08. | |
politician, it is completely and totally a disqualification for the | :14:09. | :14:09. | |
high office he seeks. The economy may mean nothing to | :14:10. | :14:29. | |
Labour, but it means everything to the people of Britain. It means our | :14:30. | :14:34. | |
security and whether we pay our bills and provide for families and | :14:35. | :14:38. | |
have rewarding jobs and enjoy decent retirements. Do you know what? There | :14:39. | :14:46. | |
is a fashionable claim made these days, I claim that the link between | :14:47. | :14:50. | |
the prosperity of the national economy and people who live in that | :14:51. | :14:57. | |
economy has been broken. -- a claim. I want to take that head-on. It is a | :14:58. | :15:04. | |
dangerous fallacy. At the millions of people who lost their jobs, whose | :15:05. | :15:09. | |
incomes were cut, aspiration is destroyed by Labour's great | :15:10. | :15:13. | |
recession, Ascot them whether they think the link between their lives | :15:14. | :15:17. | |
and the lives of the economy was there. -- ask them. They will tell | :15:18. | :15:22. | |
you from bitter experience they have paid a heavy price for that. Ask the | :15:23. | :15:26. | |
people who have bought a home because we created the conditions | :15:27. | :15:31. | |
for builders to build and they will say that it is the economy that | :15:32. | :15:39. | |
builds houses. Ask the millions each stage who rely on the NHS, last week | :15:40. | :15:47. | |
you heard Thomas is built on sand. -- each day. You cannot have a | :15:48. | :15:54. | |
properly funded National Health Service unless you have a properly | :15:55. | :15:55. | |
run economy. APPLAUSE Put another way - it's only | :15:56. | :16:10. | |
because we were willing to take difficult decisions on spending in | :16:11. | :16:14. | |
other departments that we are able to increase the NHS budget every | :16:15. | :16:19. | |
year of this Parliament. So, don't let anyone in this party concede the | :16:20. | :16:25. | |
NHS to Labour. They would ruin our NHS. The real party of the NHS is in | :16:26. | :16:33. | |
the hall today. APPLAUSE The idea that you can raise | :16:34. | :16:46. | |
living standards, funds the brilliant NHS we want, or provide | :16:47. | :16:50. | |
for our national security, without a plan to fix the economy, is a | :16:51. | :16:55. | |
nonsense. It is the economy that creates jobs. It's the economy that | :16:56. | :17:04. | |
pays for hospitals. The economy that puts food on the table. And we are | :17:05. | :17:08. | |
the only party in Britain with a plan to fix the economy. That is the | :17:09. | :17:14. | |
leadership. We have offered the country these five years in office | :17:15. | :17:18. | |
and this is the leadership we should offer for the next five years. True | :17:19. | :17:23. | |
leadership. Leadership that is working. The leadership offered by | :17:24. | :17:26. | |
our Prime Minister, David Cameron. APPLAUSE | :17:27. | :17:37. | |
And Britain faces some big choices. Choices about whether or not we are | :17:38. | :17:44. | |
going to live within our means or let rising debts threaten our | :17:45. | :17:47. | |
economy again. Choices about whether we are going to win business and | :17:48. | :17:52. | |
investment or drive it away. Choice abouts whether we are going to | :17:53. | :17:56. | |
tackle -- choices about whether we are going to tackle youth | :17:57. | :17:59. | |
unemployment and poor standards in our schools or let down a | :18:00. | :18:03. | |
generation. Choices about building the infrastructure our future | :18:04. | :18:07. | |
economy needs or letting it decay. Choices about whether we are going | :18:08. | :18:11. | |
to trust hard-working tax payers to make their own decisions about their | :18:12. | :18:15. | |
lives and their communities, or take control away from them. The past or | :18:16. | :18:21. | |
the future, that is the choice Britain faces. And we, in this hall, | :18:22. | :18:30. | |
have no doubt - we will choose the future. Now, we face some immediate | :18:31. | :18:43. | |
choices. About protecting Britain's hard-won economic stability. Earlier | :18:44. | :18:48. | |
this mornings just before I came on, you heard from Paul Bunnion. He gave | :18:49. | :18:53. | |
us a powerful testimony of what economic security looks like in real | :18:54. | :18:57. | |
life and what happens when you lose it. And he knows because seven years | :18:58. | :19:08. | |
ago he was working in a branch of Northern Rock in Newcastle. He | :19:09. | :19:16. | |
watched the people queueing desperate to withdraw from the bank. | :19:17. | :19:20. | |
He saw Britain on the brink. He says we must never go back and so do | :19:21. | :19:43. | |
with. We have to have the security of knowing our banks are face, so | :19:44. | :19:49. | |
they are safe from the riskier trading floors. The security of | :19:50. | :19:54. | |
making sure our housing market doesn't bring down our financial | :19:55. | :20:02. | |
system. I'm giving the Bank of England extra powers to curb | :20:03. | :20:06. | |
property booms and of giving mortgages to people who can't afford | :20:07. | :20:10. | |
to repay them. We also need the securing of knowing Britain can pay | :20:11. | :20:14. | |
its way. The Budget deficit is approaching half of what it was when | :20:15. | :20:18. | |
we came to office. But it is still far too high. So we will see through | :20:19. | :20:22. | |
our plan to eliminate it. And then to ensure our country is never in | :20:23. | :20:26. | |
this position again, we must run surpluses in the good years. And | :20:27. | :20:32. | |
when I say "surpluses", I mean the Government raising more than it | :20:33. | :20:36. | |
spends. Now Labour claim they will balance the books. But the | :20:37. | :20:42. | |
independent experts tell you the truth - their plans would mean they | :20:43. | :20:47. | |
would borrow ?28 billion more each year. Running an overall surplus is | :20:48. | :20:55. | |
the only sure way of getting our dangerously high national debt down. | :20:56. | :21:00. | |
And let the message go out from this conference, after what they have put | :21:01. | :21:04. | |
the country through, we will fix the roof when the sun is shining. | :21:05. | :21:07. | |
APPLAUSE And that presents me with a choice. | :21:08. | :21:27. | |
Indeed, it presents all politicians with a choice. We can either pretend | :21:28. | :21:30. | |
to the British people, before the election, that this can be done with | :21:31. | :21:35. | |
hardly any cuts - that's what we saw last week. Or we can level with | :21:36. | :21:40. | |
people now and tell them the kind of difficult decisions that are still | :21:41. | :21:44. | |
required to fix the economy. I have done this job for almost five years. | :21:45. | :21:50. | |
And I can tell you - it's only because we've levelled with people | :21:51. | :21:53. | |
that we have been able to take them with us on the journey our country | :21:54. | :22:01. | |
has had to take. Here are the facts: The latest Treasury estimate is that | :22:02. | :22:09. | |
to eliminate the deficit requires a further ?25 billion of permanent | :22:10. | :22:13. | |
public expenditure savings or new taxes. And I tell you in all canned | :22:14. | :22:19. | |
o, that the -- candour, that the option of taxing your way out of the | :22:20. | :22:24. | |
deficit no longer exists, if it ever did. | :22:25. | :22:25. | |
APPLAUSE In a modern global economy, where | :22:26. | :22:36. | |
people can move their investment from one country to another at the | :22:37. | :22:41. | |
touch of a button and companies can relocate jobs overnight, the | :22:42. | :22:44. | |
economics of high taxation are the economics of the past. And we chose | :22:45. | :22:53. | |
the future -- and we choose the future. The problem for a modern | :22:54. | :22:57. | |
country like Britain is not that it taxes too much, it is that it spends | :22:58. | :23:05. | |
too much. -- taxes too little, spends too much. And as for the | :23:06. | :23:10. | |
heart of what we offer - and the proposals that Labour present to the | :23:11. | :23:14. | |
country - for higher taxes on incomes, taxes on business, taxes on | :23:15. | :23:18. | |
savings, on investments, on financial, pensions homes and on | :23:19. | :23:23. | |
jobs, will be an economic disaster for every person in the United | :23:24. | :23:29. | |
Kingdom. And by the way, when Scotland is rightly given greater | :23:30. | :23:34. | |
control of its taxes, I suspect the people of Scotland will choose to | :23:35. | :23:44. | |
put them down, not up. APPLAUSE And let me be clear, we | :23:45. | :23:51. | |
will honour, in full, our commitments to Scotland and we are | :23:52. | :23:55. | |
also absolutely clear that as Scots get more control over their taxes, | :23:56. | :24:00. | |
it is right that Northern Ireland, Wales and England should get more | :24:01. | :24:04. | |
control over their taxes and their laws, too. | :24:05. | :24:05. | |
APPLAUSE I'm not going to pretend that | :24:06. | :24:22. | |
finding ?25 billion of spending savings will be easy. But nor is it | :24:23. | :24:27. | |
impossible. We have already found ?100 billion of savings in this | :24:28. | :24:36. | |
Parliament. We have shown what can be done if you have discipline and | :24:37. | :24:39. | |
grit. In every election I have thought - Conservatives are argued - | :24:40. | :24:45. | |
you can have better public services without borrowing and spending more. | :24:46. | :24:48. | |
But it is about making Government more efficient and effective and | :24:49. | :24:52. | |
Labour have argued you cannot. I believe that the record of this | :24:53. | :24:56. | |
Government has settled this argument for good. Labour were wrong and we | :24:57. | :25:00. | |
were right. APPLAUSE Theresa May has reduced the | :25:01. | :25:18. | |
Home Office budget by almost 20%. But crime is down. Michael are Gove | :25:19. | :25:24. | |
and Niki Morgan have cut education Boyer crasscy in half but school | :25:25. | :25:33. | |
standards are up. And please thank me in in thanking our Treasury team | :25:34. | :25:42. | |
who have helped us attain this. APPLAUSE | :25:43. | :25:50. | |
I can see Rob liked that bit of the speech. | :25:51. | :25:59. | |
So, to eliminate the deficit and finish the job, we will rere dues | :26:00. | :26:03. | |
Whitehall spending by at least the same rate for the first time two | :26:04. | :26:07. | |
years of the next Parliament as we have done through this Parliament. | :26:08. | :26:11. | |
That will save at least ?13 billion. We will go on restraining public | :26:12. | :26:17. | |
sector pay and there will have to be less welfare spending, too. | :26:18. | :26:26. | |
APPLAUSE Now, welfare spending makes up one-third of the entire | :26:27. | :26:30. | |
Government budget. We are going to live in a country where the elderly | :26:31. | :26:37. | |
have dignity in retirement and the vulnerable and people with | :26:38. | :26:40. | |
disabilities are protected. But we can't afford to live in one, where | :26:41. | :26:46. | |
we spend ?100 billion in welfare payments for people of working age. | :26:47. | :26:56. | |
?100 billion. And we have such debts and even with the reforming | :26:57. | :27:00. | |
decisions that Iain Duncan Smith and I have taken, benefits have risen | :27:01. | :27:03. | |
more than earnings since Labour's great recession. That is not | :27:04. | :27:07. | |
sustainable for any nation and it is not fair, either. So, I can tell you | :27:08. | :27:13. | |
this today - working age benefits in Britain will have to be frozen for | :27:14. | :27:18. | |
two years. This is the choice Britain needs to take to protect our | :27:19. | :27:24. | |
economic stability and to secure a better future. The fairest way to | :27:25. | :27:29. | |
reduce welfare bills is to make sure that benefits are not rising faster | :27:30. | :27:33. | |
than the wages of the tax payers who are paying for them. | :27:34. | :27:33. | |
APPLAUSE We will provide a welfare system | :27:34. | :27:49. | |
that is fair to those who need it and fair to those who pay for it, | :27:50. | :27:52. | |
too. APPLAUSE This freeze in working age | :27:53. | :28:01. | |
benefits saves the country over ?3 billion. It's a serious contribution | :28:02. | :28:07. | |
to reducing the deficit. Pensioner benefits and disability | :28:08. | :28:11. | |
benefits will be excluded. And to those in work, I say this - where is | :28:12. | :28:16. | |
the sense in taxing you more, only for you to be given some of your own | :28:17. | :28:23. | |
money back, in welfare? The best way to support people's incomes is to | :28:24. | :28:27. | |
make sure that those out of work get a job and those in work pay less | :28:28. | :28:31. | |
tax. APPLAUSE | :28:32. | :28:40. | |
And that is why I am the Chancellor, in budget after budget, who is | :28:41. | :28:51. | |
increasing the tax-free personal allowance to ??10,500, meaning | :28:52. | :28:54. | |
working people on low and middle incomes keep up to ?800 more of | :28:55. | :28:59. | |
their hard-earned money. It is why we have cut taxes for savers, for | :29:00. | :29:03. | |
home-owners, for small businesses, self-employed. Cut taxes for | :29:04. | :29:07. | |
everyone who I pas their council tax or fills up their car. And that is | :29:08. | :29:12. | |
why we have cut jobs taxes and increased work incentives and as a | :29:13. | :29:16. | |
result there are almost 2 million more in work. That is the choice | :29:17. | :29:20. | |
that we have made. APPLAUSE | :29:21. | :29:26. | |
And the good news is that youth unemployment has fallen sharply. The | :29:27. | :29:34. | |
sad news is that there are still too many young people who have fallen | :29:35. | :29:38. | |
into a culture of welfare dependency and a life on the dole. It is a scar | :29:39. | :29:46. | |
on our society. It is a tragic waste of human talent and we can end it in | :29:47. | :29:51. | |
the next Parliament. So let this party of progress make another | :29:52. | :29:55. | |
choice. Let's abolish long-term youth unemployment altogether. | :29:56. | :29:56. | |
APPLAUSE So here is how we will do it - we'll | :29:57. | :30:13. | |
replace Jobseeker's Allowance, reform housing benefit and take the | :30:14. | :30:18. | |
benefit cap we have introduced down to ?23,000, because families out of | :30:19. | :30:21. | |
work should not get more than the average family in work. | :30:22. | :30:32. | |
APPLAUSE And all of these savings, all of | :30:33. | :30:39. | |
these savings will be used to fund 3 million new apprenticeships. 3 | :30:40. | :30:41. | |
million more chances for a better life. So we help our citizens get | :30:42. | :30:46. | |
jobs, instead of more immigration from abroad. We have a choice | :30:47. | :30:50. | |
between paying our young people for a life on the dole, or giving them | :30:51. | :30:56. | |
the keys of opportunity and be in no doubt which side this party is on, | :30:57. | :30:59. | |
we choose their future. This country must pay its debts, | :31:00. | :31:21. | |
pull up its young people. It must be the place where business invests and | :31:22. | :31:29. | |
businesses thrive. I thought Digby Jones spoke well about this. It is | :31:30. | :31:34. | |
not by accident that more than 2 million private sector jobs have | :31:35. | :31:38. | |
been created under this government. It is the deliberate policy of this | :31:39. | :31:44. | |
government to support job creators. And yet, for the first time in my | :31:45. | :31:49. | |
adult life, we have a Labour Party that is positively anti-business. It | :31:50. | :31:54. | |
came through in every sentence Ed Miliband remembered. The bits we | :31:55. | :32:01. | |
wished he'd forgotten. By the general election, we will have | :32:02. | :32:09. | |
delivered on a promise I made to you in my first speech as Chancellor in | :32:10. | :32:15. | |
Birmingham. Britain will have the lowest, most competitive business | :32:16. | :32:18. | |
taxes of any large country in the world. APPLAUSE. | :32:19. | :32:27. | |
Unbelievably, Labour want to reverse this. This is their policy, to be | :32:28. | :32:37. | |
firm against firms. Their business to be against business. As if they | :32:38. | :32:40. | |
forgotten that people work in businesses and their wages come from | :32:41. | :32:44. | |
firms. We instead are proud to be the party of firms and businesses, | :32:45. | :32:51. | |
of income and jobs, and livelihoods. When we choose to be on the side of | :32:52. | :32:55. | |
enterprise we are choosing to be on the side of the British people. | :32:56. | :33:07. | |
This party of progress is the party of free markets and their markets. | :33:08. | :33:16. | |
How dare the Labour Party attempt to give lessons on fairness? Who is the | :33:17. | :33:21. | |
party restoring the real value of the minimum wage? Who is the party | :33:22. | :33:26. | |
tackling abuse of 0-hour contracts? Who is the party capping payday | :33:27. | :33:31. | |
loans, not 13 years of Labour, they were too busy capping each other. It | :33:32. | :33:35. | |
is ask, the Conservative Party who understands markets must be fair if | :33:36. | :33:37. | |
they are to be free. -- it is us. It is this pro-business conservative | :33:38. | :33:54. | |
Chancellor who says to some of the biggest technology companies in the | :33:55. | :33:58. | |
world this today. You are welcome here in Britain with open arms. You | :33:59. | :34:03. | |
have the advantages of our skilled population to work for you, what | :34:04. | :34:08. | |
band connections to deliver your services and our NHS to keep | :34:09. | :34:13. | |
employees healthy. -- broadband. They are advantages that must be | :34:14. | :34:17. | |
paid for. Whilst we offer some of the lowest business taxes in the | :34:18. | :34:23. | |
world, we expect those taxes to be paid, not avoided, and some | :34:24. | :34:26. | |
technology companies go to extraordinary lengths to pay little | :34:27. | :34:32. | |
or no tax here. If you abuse the tax system then you abused the trust of | :34:33. | :34:36. | |
the British people, and my message to these companies is clear, we will | :34:37. | :34:41. | |
put a stop to it, low taxes but low taxes that are paid. Part of our | :34:42. | :34:46. | |
effort to reduce the deficit. Our choice is that we are all in | :34:47. | :35:03. | |
this together. It was this government that started the global | :35:04. | :35:10. | |
work on changing international tax rules. This autumn we will lead the | :35:11. | :35:14. | |
world in implementing those changes here in Britain. The future for | :35:15. | :35:23. | |
Britain is to be a low tax country where people play by the rules. The | :35:24. | :35:26. | |
future for Britain is to be a pro-business country. We also have | :35:27. | :35:32. | |
to build for that future. Big decisions on infrastructure have | :35:33. | :35:37. | |
always been controversial and always will be. The railways were bitterly | :35:38. | :35:46. | |
opposed in the 19th century. The motorways were opposed in the 20th | :35:47. | :35:50. | |
century. Let's face it. Even today, this country has spent 40 years | :35:51. | :35:55. | |
failing to take a decision about building a new runway in the | :35:56. | :36:00. | |
south-east of England. There are always 100 reasons to stick with the | :36:01. | :36:04. | |
past but we need to choose the future. We should ask ourselves what | :36:05. | :36:10. | |
the golden boys in that statue outside this hall would have done. | :36:11. | :36:14. | |
What choices would those great Britons have made? Would they have | :36:15. | :36:22. | |
said, our trains may be packed, roads congested, transport system | :36:23. | :36:26. | |
cannot cope, but we will not build any more new roads railways? Would | :36:27. | :36:32. | |
they have said, we mind for called the Underground and explored for oil | :36:33. | :36:36. | |
in the sea but we should leave the extraordinary shale gas reserves | :36:37. | :36:39. | |
untouched beneath our feet? They would not. Would they have said the | :36:40. | :36:46. | |
country that had built the first nuclear power station should not | :36:47. | :36:50. | |
build any more? They would not. Would they have said, it is OK if | :36:51. | :36:53. | |
our children cannot afford houses so long as we can? They would not. | :36:54. | :37:01. | |
Would they, who were part of an age of Enlightenment, that discovered | :37:02. | :37:05. | |
the vaccine for smallpox, have said we are not going to have any | :37:06. | :37:09. | |
research into genetic medicines and crops that will save countless lives | :37:10. | :37:12. | |
in the future? They would not. We must choose the future. We will tap | :37:13. | :37:17. | |
the shale gas, commission nuclear power, guarantee energy for the | :37:18. | :37:23. | |
future. We will build the High Speed Rail Bill, decide where to put our | :37:24. | :37:31. | |
runway, and support the Next Generation with starter homes in a | :37:32. | :37:35. | |
permanent Help To Buy. We must learn from the past, not be the past. | :37:36. | :37:39. | |
Decide or decline, that is the choice and we must choose the | :37:40. | :37:40. | |
future. You know what? This future cannot | :37:41. | :37:56. | |
just be about prosperity for one corner of her country. I grew up in | :37:57. | :38:01. | |
London, I'm full of wonder at the way it has become a global capital, | :38:02. | :38:07. | |
attracting the young, the ambitious, the talented from across the world. | :38:08. | :38:11. | |
That's a huge strength for the whole of Britain. But I'm also the first | :38:12. | :38:17. | |
Chancellor for almost 40 years to represent a constituency in the | :38:18. | :38:22. | |
North of England and I can see the risk that our capital city will | :38:23. | :38:25. | |
dominate. It's not healthy for our country or our economy. The answer | :38:26. | :38:31. | |
is not to pool down or hold back our greatest global asset, that would be | :38:32. | :38:38. | |
crazy. The answer is to build up the rest of the country, create a | :38:39. | :38:41. | |
northern powerhouse of the cities across the Pennines, correct up the | :38:42. | :38:47. | |
south-west, put the Midlands at the centre of the great manufacturing | :38:48. | :38:51. | |
revival. People know that the disparities between different parts | :38:52. | :38:54. | |
of our countries have grown up over many decades, under governments of | :38:55. | :39:01. | |
all colours. Treat people as adults, not pretend we can reverse something | :39:02. | :39:06. | |
like this overnight. Equally, let's not give up, say that it cannot be | :39:07. | :39:12. | |
done, look at what Michael Heseltine achieved at the docks of Liverpool | :39:13. | :39:15. | |
and London. This party of progress knows what it takes to create | :39:16. | :39:23. | |
flourishing economies. Top universities, strong leadership that | :39:24. | :39:29. | |
comes with powerful elected members of cities. These are the ingredients | :39:30. | :39:33. | |
of the northern powerhouse. That is how we deliver prosperity and | :39:34. | :39:36. | |
security for families across the nation and it is one of my driving | :39:37. | :39:42. | |
missions to do everything I can. Let us choose today to make reducing the | :39:43. | :39:47. | |
gap between North and South one of the central ambitions of the next | :39:48. | :39:49. | |
Conservative government. APPLAUSE. There is one final choice we should | :39:50. | :40:07. | |
make. A choice this party of progress always makes. That is to | :40:08. | :40:12. | |
trust people with their own money. That is why in my budget this year I | :40:13. | :40:17. | |
applied that philosophy with far reaching new freedoms in the way | :40:18. | :40:20. | |
people can access their pensions. These freedoms are based on the | :40:21. | :40:32. | |
simple idea that people know better how to spend their money than | :40:33. | :40:38. | |
governments do. This party that gave people the right to buy their own | :40:39. | :40:41. | |
home is the party that is giving people ownership of their own | :40:42. | :40:49. | |
pension as well. APPLAUSE. But I want to go further. There are still | :40:50. | :40:54. | |
rules that say you cannot pass on to the next generation any of your | :40:55. | :40:57. | |
pension pot when you die without paying a punitive 55% tax on it. I | :40:58. | :41:06. | |
could choose to cut this tax rate. Instead, I'd choose to abolish it | :41:07. | :41:08. | |
altogether. APPLAUSE. People who have worked and saved all | :41:09. | :41:27. | |
their lives will be able to pass on their hard earned pensions to the | :41:28. | :41:31. | |
families tax free, effective from today. APPLAUSE. | :41:32. | :41:46. | |
The children and grandchildren and others who benefit will get the same | :41:47. | :41:52. | |
tax treatment on this income as any other, but only when they choose to | :41:53. | :41:57. | |
drive down. Freedom for people's pensions, a pension tax abolished, | :41:58. | :42:03. | |
passing on your pension tax-free. Put into place and delivered by | :42:04. | :42:07. | |
conservatives in government right now. APPLAUSE. | :42:08. | :42:19. | |
We are eight months away from one of the most important general elections | :42:20. | :42:28. | |
in a generation. We can face it with confidence, because we go to the | :42:29. | :42:32. | |
people as the party of progress. For five years Britain has pursued a | :42:33. | :42:39. | |
clear economic policy, whilst all over Europe there has been in crisis | :42:40. | :42:42. | |
and uncertainty. Britain has been the land turning the storm. Now we | :42:43. | :42:48. | |
seek a new mandate as the party of jobs and security and a strong Prime | :42:49. | :42:55. | |
Minister against the party of higher taxes, more debt and Ed Miliband. We | :42:56. | :42:59. | |
are going to offer political resolve and economic competence, a confident | :43:00. | :43:04. | |
future for Britain as the most prosperous country in the world. We | :43:05. | :43:07. | |
are going to say to the British people, choose jobs, choose | :43:08. | :43:13. | |
enterprise, choose security, choose prosperity, choose investment, | :43:14. | :43:19. | |
choose fairness, choose freedom, choose David Cameron, choose the | :43:20. | :43:20. | |
Conservatives, choose the future. The Chancellor spoke for longer than | :43:21. | :43:49. | |
we'd been told. Almost 40 minutes. He is taking the applause of the | :43:50. | :43:52. | |
conference now. The inevitable standing ovation. He began by | :43:53. | :43:57. | |
telling the conference how good the British economy was but he did say | :43:58. | :44:02. | |
there would have to be another 25 billion in public spending cuts in | :44:03. | :44:08. | |
the next Parliament. That is to get a surplus. He ruled out increases in | :44:09. | :44:14. | |
taxes and instead he went for cuts in public spending. He promises that | :44:15. | :44:21. | |
there will be a freeze on all working age benefits for two years | :44:22. | :44:27. | |
in the next Parliament, starting in 2016, hoping to save ?3 billion per | :44:28. | :44:33. | |
year. He also promised some tougher taxes on companies that have not | :44:34. | :44:38. | |
been paying their fair whack. An upbeat speech from the Chancellor, | :44:39. | :44:47. | |
who will be hoping this conference is back on the economy. What did you | :44:48. | :44:51. | |
make of it? There are two announcements at the heart of it, | :44:52. | :44:55. | |
one was on benefits and the other was the Google tax. On benefits, | :44:56. | :45:02. | |
this is the third stage of the clamp-down for benefits of working | :45:03. | :45:05. | |
age people. What a first it was change the operating, so benefits | :45:06. | :45:10. | |
were not rated with the retail prices index, but the consumer Price | :45:11. | :45:18. | |
index which is lower. Second stage was in 2012 when they said they | :45:19. | :45:26. | |
would not be in line with inflation at all. It meant a cut. Now he says | :45:27. | :45:33. | |
if he is re-elected, the Tories would freeze working age benefits, | :45:34. | :45:37. | |
let's be clear what those are, job-seeker's allowance, income | :45:38. | :45:42. | |
support, child tax credit, working tax credit, employment support | :45:43. | :45:45. | |
allowance, which goes to those deemed capable of work, not those | :45:46. | :45:50. | |
incapable of work, and the element of housing benefit known as local | :45:51. | :45:54. | |
housing allowance. It does not mean freezing benefits for pensioners. | :45:55. | :45:59. | |
Child benefit is frozen. It does not mean, we are told, are freeze for | :46:00. | :46:03. | |
people who are disabled. A dramatic move. One of the Liberal | :46:04. | :46:14. | |
Democrats refused to go along with, both in 2010 and 2012. Let's be | :46:15. | :46:18. | |
honest, it is designed to do two things - one, save a lot of money | :46:19. | :46:22. | |
quickly. ?3 billion is a significant sum to saved but designed to put his | :46:23. | :46:27. | |
opponents on the spot and say - here is my downpayment on the Bev sit. | :46:28. | :46:31. | |
What's yours? Stick with us, we'll speak to Matthew Hancock, Tory | :46:32. | :46:35. | |
minister in a minute to go through some of the Chancellor's reactions. | :46:36. | :46:39. | |
Well, what did Labour make of the Chancellor's speech? | :46:40. | :46:41. | |
Joining me now is the Shadow Treasury Minister, Chris Leslie, | :46:42. | :46:44. | |
Welcome to the Daily Politics. Do you support Mr Osborne's changes on | :46:45. | :46:50. | |
pensions, that he has called, the pension death tax? Well, this is, of | :46:51. | :46:57. | |
course, the 55% rate that George Osborne himself introduced, yes, in | :46:58. | :47:02. | |
July 2010. We raised our concerns back then, in some of the | :47:03. | :47:07. | |
legislative discussions about it and questionied about whether people | :47:08. | :47:10. | |
were being over-taxed. But I think it is good to simplify some of these | :47:11. | :47:14. | |
mention rules but, it is interesting, isn't it, that he | :47:15. | :47:20. | |
didn't U-turn also on the granny tax, the so-called granny tax, | :47:21. | :47:25. | |
remember when he abolished the aged allowance which took a lot more from | :47:26. | :47:29. | |
pensioners. Just to clarify, Labour will support the end of the 55% on | :47:30. | :47:35. | |
pensions? Yes. We said at the time that it was a George Osborne | :47:36. | :47:39. | |
invention in the first place. It is funny, isn't it, how, after an | :47:40. | :47:44. | |
election George Osborne raises some of the taxes but before you get to | :47:45. | :47:48. | |
the next election, he would like to give you the impression he is taking | :47:49. | :47:51. | |
them away. All right. I get the point. What about the freeze on | :47:52. | :47:57. | |
working age benefits which Nick, as I think you heard outlined, what | :47:58. | :48:01. | |
benefits it covers from 2016. Will Labour support a freeze on these | :48:02. | :48:05. | |
benefits? Well, I just heard the list. I think there is a bit of | :48:06. | :48:09. | |
confusion on that. I will look at the detail. Don't forget at our | :48:10. | :48:12. | |
conference last week we said that tough decisions are going to have to | :48:13. | :48:16. | |
be taken on public spending, so, for example, on child benefit we have | :48:17. | :48:23. | |
said not just for 15/16 but for 2016/17, a 1% cap on child benefit | :48:24. | :48:30. | |
but there is being something a bit depressing, the choice George | :48:31. | :48:32. | |
Osborne is making. He said nothing about the squeeze on real earnings | :48:33. | :48:37. | |
and the wages that people have had over this last few years and what | :48:38. | :48:42. | |
his choice is, is to take ?3 billion from those who are of working age, | :48:43. | :48:46. | |
rather than the ?3 billion that he has given away in the tax cuts to | :48:47. | :48:52. | |
the very wealthiest 1% through a millionaire's tax cut, earnings over | :48:53. | :48:58. | |
?150,000. All I say is that that is a very interesting choice from the | :48:59. | :49:01. | |
Chancellor which says all we need to know about how he stands up, always | :49:02. | :49:05. | |
for the very wealthiest few rather than for the vast majority in this | :49:06. | :49:09. | |
country. I think a lot of people who are out there working, day by day, | :49:10. | :49:14. | |
thinking about tax credits, think being maternity pay, for example, | :49:15. | :49:18. | |
all these other things will be saying - hang on, you talk that we | :49:19. | :49:22. | |
are all in this together but what about those at the very top? What | :49:23. | :49:25. | |
about the mansion tax and some of those people who can afford to pay | :49:26. | :49:28. | |
more and contribute more? All right. OK. I take that point, Mr Leslie. | :49:29. | :49:35. | |
So, why are you even considering supporting the freeze?. Because we | :49:36. | :49:39. | |
are going to have to make tough decisions. There is none point in us | :49:40. | :49:42. | |
getting elected and telling people that everything can be wonderful. We | :49:43. | :49:46. | |
are going to have a deficit in this country that has been left behind. | :49:47. | :49:49. | |
Because this is a Chancellor who promised he would get rid of it by | :49:50. | :49:53. | |
now and of course, he hasn't done. In fact, deficit reduction as you | :49:54. | :49:56. | |
know - because you know the figures -- has been a thing of the past for | :49:57. | :50:00. | |
the last couple of years. Deficit is rising, borrowing is up in the most | :50:01. | :50:03. | |
recent figures. The thing about George Osborne is he just doesn't | :50:04. | :50:07. | |
get it, some of the drivers of higher welfare cost, the drivers of | :50:08. | :50:12. | |
the rising deficit are housing becoming unaffordable because of the | :50:13. | :50:15. | |
lack of housing supply and will he pay that is indome across our | :50:16. | :50:20. | |
country. It requires the tax credit subsidies. Nothing in his speech | :50:21. | :50:24. | |
about that. The very sense in which he is trying to divide the country | :50:25. | :50:28. | |
between the wealthiest and the rest and this is' bus they are a divided | :50:29. | :50:34. | |
party. Party. -- and that's bus they are a divided party. We can see if | :50:35. | :50:38. | |
he can persuade his own Conservative Members of Parliament about it. All | :50:39. | :50:41. | |
right, is there anything the Chancellor announced this morning | :50:42. | :50:44. | |
that you will oppose? I will look at the detail. Parliament isn't | :50:45. | :50:48. | |
sitting. You know, I have my concerns about the general direction | :50:49. | :50:52. | |
of travel of where he is going. I think there is a lot of omission | :50:53. | :50:56. | |
here. It is the choices he is making. He always wants to raise | :50:57. | :51:00. | |
taxes and have cuts that hit those in work, but he does nothing for | :51:01. | :51:04. | |
those in the world that he inhabits, who are doing quite well right now. | :51:05. | :51:09. | |
In fact, in the sort of wealthiest 1%, share share of income noe this | :51:10. | :51:14. | |
country has grown, whereas 90-odd % of the rest of the country, their | :51:15. | :51:18. | |
share has fallen. It is that trickledown economics, he has said | :51:19. | :51:22. | |
today, that he wants to stick with. All right, Chris Leslie, thank you | :51:23. | :51:26. | |
for joining us from London. Just a quick recap. The surprise | :51:27. | :51:29. | |
announcements in the Chancellor's speech was a freeze on certain | :51:30. | :51:34. | |
working-age benefits which he says will save ?3 billion a year which | :51:35. | :51:38. | |
will go towards cutting the deficit which will still be about ?95 | :51:39. | :51:42. | |
billion or more by the end of this Parliament. Proposed freeze will | :51:43. | :51:45. | |
come into effect if the Conservatives are re-elected. It | :51:46. | :51:48. | |
won't start until 2016, the first full year of a new Government. Let's | :51:49. | :51:53. | |
look at the detail. The benefits freeze would include Jobseeker's | :51:54. | :51:56. | |
Allowance, income support and Employment Support Allowance. It | :51:57. | :52:01. | |
also expends to child and working tax credits. | :52:02. | :52:09. | |
And, to child benefit as well. But, the Chancellor will exclude | :52:10. | :52:13. | |
pensions, disability benefits as well as maternity and paternity pay. | :52:14. | :52:15. | |
pensions, disability benefits as well as maternity and paternity pay. | :52:16. | :52:20. | |
So, there we have it. A proposal which will no doubt be in the next | :52:21. | :52:24. | |
Conservative manifesto. We are joined by the business minister, | :52:25. | :52:28. | |
Matthew Hancock. Can we establish, from the start, that a freeze on | :52:29. | :52:33. | |
benefits n real terms, is a cut? -- in real terms? Well, it depends on | :52:34. | :52:37. | |
the future rate of inflation but it is a freeze in cash terms we are | :52:38. | :52:41. | |
talking about. So benefits will be cut by whatever the rate of | :52:42. | :52:45. | |
inflation is, in real terms? Well, it depends how you measure it, of | :52:46. | :52:51. | |
course. Well, it is by the CPI? That's the general measure of | :52:52. | :52:54. | |
inflation and we are talking here about a cash freeze in the amount of | :52:55. | :53:00. | |
benefits because we think that is the fairest way to tackle the | :53:01. | :53:03. | |
overspending on welfare that's grown up over the last few decades. By | :53:04. | :53:11. | |
what measure is it fair, when the average wages of most ordinary | :53:12. | :53:18. | |
workers are falling in real terms, that you now say, not only will your | :53:19. | :53:23. | |
wages fall in real terms but any benefits that you get will now fall | :53:24. | :53:27. | |
in real terms. Well, to support people who are nor work and to make | :53:28. | :53:31. | |
sure that work pays, we are cutting taxes and income tax, focussed on | :53:32. | :53:35. | |
the lowest paid. And I thought that the Chancellor was very clear in his | :53:36. | :53:42. | |
speech, the best way to help people who are working, to keep more money | :53:43. | :53:45. | |
in their pockets, is to make sure they don't pay as much in tax. What | :53:46. | :53:50. | |
is the point of taking it away in tax and recycling it, in terms of | :53:51. | :53:54. | |
benefit? That's a very straightforward principle. But the | :53:55. | :53:59. | |
take-home pay of average and below average earners is falling, even | :54:00. | :54:03. | |
after your tax cuts. Take-home pay is falling, in real terms and now | :54:04. | :54:07. | |
their benefits will fall, in real terms. So it is a double whammy for | :54:08. | :54:11. | |
ordinary workers, isn't it? Their real wages are falling and real | :54:12. | :54:16. | |
benefits will fall? No, the measures of real wages after tax are | :54:17. | :54:19. | |
positive. No, they are not actually. Well, they are on the measures that | :54:20. | :54:24. | |
- and we can go into the statistics, but the big picture point is this - | :54:25. | :54:29. | |
we have to deal with the deficit. As you saw, Labour have no plans and | :54:30. | :54:33. | |
they don't know what to think of this. They were rather muddled on | :54:34. | :54:37. | |
whether they would attack this or support it. Stay with the Toriesment | :54:38. | :54:42. | |
We have a big task to do as a country, which is to make sure we | :54:43. | :54:46. | |
work through this plan, which is clearly working. We have never | :54:47. | :54:49. | |
argued it was going to be easy to put... Why are you putting all the | :54:50. | :54:53. | |
burden on toll average and below average. To correct you... We are | :54:54. | :54:57. | |
also talking about making sure companies pay their fair share. I | :54:58. | :55:00. | |
have to give you the figures. Real take-home pay for the bottom 10% of | :55:01. | :55:09. | |
earners was ?7,361 in '08. It is now around ?7,000. It has fallen. Real | :55:10. | :55:14. | |
take-home pay and you are now going to cut real benefits. If you are | :55:15. | :55:20. | |
taking that measure, from the great recession and as the Chancellor said | :55:21. | :55:23. | |
in his speech - there is a very strong link between having a | :55:24. | :55:28. | |
recession as a country and people's pay, and absolutely because of the | :55:29. | :55:33. | |
recession, undoubtedly, on average, pay has fallen. We all know that. Do | :55:34. | :55:38. | |
you know why? Because when there is a recession the economy shrinks and | :55:39. | :55:43. | |
the economy is nothing more than the accumulation of the financial income | :55:44. | :55:49. | |
of everybody in it. But if the real take-home pay of people on average | :55:50. | :55:54. | |
and below average earnings are falling, why are you hitting them | :55:55. | :55:59. | |
with a benefits cut. You have muddled it up. Why are you hitting | :56:00. | :56:06. | |
them with a benefits cut You are it has fallen. It is falling, and we | :56:07. | :56:10. | |
had Labour's great recession and boy are we not going to let them forget | :56:11. | :56:15. | |
T we are turning than around. It is not easy. The best thing we can do | :56:16. | :56:19. | |
to support people on low pay is cut their income tax. If you have a | :56:20. | :56:24. | |
two-earner couple with a family on ?13,000 each per year, you will lose | :56:25. | :56:29. | |
around ?400 because of this, but you will gain over ?1,100 because of the | :56:30. | :56:34. | |
tax measures that we have taken and that means that you are overall | :56:35. | :56:40. | |
better off. OK Now that is the sort of change we are making but it is | :56:41. | :56:44. | |
part of a broader picture which is that you have to get control of the | :56:45. | :56:48. | |
nation's finances if we are going to have a stronger and more secure | :56:49. | :56:51. | |
future. And that is the big picture. But let's just... When the economy | :56:52. | :56:55. | |
runs into the sand, everybody gets hit by this. And what is Labour | :56:56. | :57:02. | |
offering... But people hit by it most of all are people on average | :57:03. | :57:05. | |
incomes and below. Meanwhile you have cut the top tax rate for the | :57:06. | :57:10. | |
rich. Now you are going to give this huge middle class benefit for people | :57:11. | :57:14. | |
with big pensions, you are abolishing the 55% tax. | :57:15. | :57:17. | |
Overwhelmingly of benefit to the middle class as you freeze benefits | :57:18. | :57:21. | |
for the working poor. That's in the true, actually. Not only are the | :57:22. | :57:26. | |
most well-paid paying the highest proportion of the tax take than they | :57:27. | :57:32. | |
have in recent times, but, also, the change to pensions is about making | :57:33. | :57:37. | |
sure that it pays to save. So why did you introduce the 55% tax rate | :57:38. | :57:42. | |
in 2011? Well, on many people it was 85% before that and we brought it | :57:43. | :57:46. | |
down. It was 35% and you increased the to 55% for most people. If it | :57:47. | :57:51. | |
was right to do it then, why is it wrong now? It was 85% for some and | :57:52. | :57:57. | |
35% for some. We simplified it to 55% and now we have got rid of it | :57:58. | :58:02. | |
altogether. You are getting rid of something you Z No, we are taking | :58:03. | :58:07. | |
the next ste. We cut it from 85% to 55%. It was mainly 35% for some, you | :58:08. | :58:12. | |
increased it to 55%. There is no mainly about it. Final thoughts. You | :58:13. | :58:17. | |
have been putting to Mr Hancock undoubtedly what Labour would say. | :58:18. | :58:22. | |
Chris Leslie hinted at it but didn't go all the way - which is you are | :58:23. | :58:26. | |
taking money from the working age poor. When we talk to benefits, some | :58:27. | :58:30. | |
goes to people out of work, a lot goes to people in work. They'll say | :58:31. | :58:34. | |
that's unfair. Others will say - we have had a squeeze on our earn, of | :58:35. | :58:38. | |
course, benefits have to be squeezed to. | :58:39. | :58:42. | |
Thank you both very much. I will be here at 11.30am tomorrow with all | :58:43. | :58:48. | |
the big stories and we'll have Boris Johnson's speech to conference. | :58:49. | :58:52. | |
Obviously not interest in that and we'll be speaking to the Foreign | :58:53. | :58:57. | |
Secretary. For now, from Birmingham, goodbye. | :58:58. | :59:09. | |
Saxon hoard. Basically, the Holy Grail of treasure-hunting. | :59:10. | :59:13. | |
is the Holy Grail of treasure-hunting. | :59:14. | :59:17. |