29/10/2015 Daily Politics


29/10/2015

Andrew Neil is joined by businessman and peer Lord Bilimoria to discuss the latest on EU renegotiation, population growth and the Westminster dog of the year.


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David Cameron's in Iceland making friends with some

:00:36.:00:41.

But the leaders of Estonia and Finland say they've yet to hear

:00:42.:00:57.

from the PM how exactly he wants to renegotiate Britain's membership

:00:58.:00:59.

Mr Cameron insists his reform discussions are "going well".

:01:00.:01:02.

We don't have the report but we do now have a date - ish -

:01:03.:01:06.

for the publication of the Chilcott inquiry into the Iraq war.

:01:07.:01:09.

Every five years in China, man, they have a development plan.

:01:10.:01:16.

So man, China's one child policy has been abandoned.

:01:17.:01:19.

We'll be finding what else is in their latest five year plan.

:01:20.:01:22.

And how about a spot of dog whistle politics?

:01:23.:01:24.

It's the Parliamentary Dog of the Year Awards again.

:01:25.:01:32.

All that in the next hour and with us for the duration, businessman and

:01:33.:01:35.

Now, first today, since we have a Lord in our midst,

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let's talk about the Upper House and the events of Monday.

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You voted against George Osborne's plan to reduce tax credits.

:01:46.:01:48.

. I think that what George Osborne did was not thought through. He had

:01:49.:02:00.

openly said in the election that they wanted to cut welfare, which is

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fine and I do think welfare needs to be cut. I do believe in

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fine and I do think welfare needs to welfare-to-work and I do think we

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need to balance reduce our set and our deficit but

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the way he did this, without taking into

:02:14.:02:16.

the way he did this, without taking cuts on the poorest, was just so bad

:02:17.:02:19.

it was not compassionate and also, putting it through, through a

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statutory instrument was not the right way to do it. This is a

:02:24.:02:25.

welfare matter but also right way to do it. This is a

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matter T should have been in the Autumn

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matter T should have been in the Statement, debated in the House of

:02:35.:02:35.

Commons. If it was a finance Statement, debated in the House of

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you shouldn't have been touching it at all. Did you have concerns that

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the Lords was getting at all. Did you have concerns that

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It was a tricky situation, because we had a constitutional matter.

:02:45.:02:48.

Should we have taken part in this? Because it was a statutory

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instrument we could. There was no Because it was a statutory

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question about it. It is rare we voted on statutory instruments. It

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only happened a handful of times in the last few years, last time was in

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two 12. I think people felt strongly about it, it hasn't been done the

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right way. George Osborne is a politically astute. I can't believe

:03:09.:03:10.

he did this, after the budget, there he did this, after the budget, there

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was no need to do it this way. You are a businessman, you have

:03:16.:03:18.

was no need to do it this way. You tough decisions, not always popular.

:03:19.:03:21.

Isn't that what Chancellors have to do taking decisions is one thing,

:03:22.:03:23.

how you implement them. do taking decisions is one thing,

:03:24.:03:28.

listen to people. Do you do it from an ivory tower or listen to people?

:03:29.:03:32.

Do you take into account effects of your decisions, this could have been

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phased in be and done your decisions, this could have been

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that doesn't affect the poorest. the right thing in using its voice

:03:38.:03:40.

and expertise. That's the right thing in using its voice

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amazing expertise. He the right thing in using its voice

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away to think the right thing in using its voice

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we did, that the English came At the end of the show our guest

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will give us the correct answer. We hope. For a change I know the

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answer. It's day two of David Cameron's

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visit to Iceland. He's meant to be making friends with

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our Northern European neighbours. Our Political Editor,

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Laura Kuensberg is in Rejkavik. Looks lovely. What is going on?

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Well, David Cameron has been trying to show in the last couple of days

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that he is, after trying to stay out of the fray, now really engaging in

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this whole debate. That is a change of position, no doubt about it.

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Because in recent months, while the campaign for out and in have been

:04:53.:04:56.

getting busy, number ten have really wanted to hang back but this week

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that's changed. He is trying to show progress. He has been warning about

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the idea of having a looser relationship like Iceland and Norway

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do, with the rest of the EU but I think maybe more than anything else,

:05:09.:05:12.

number ten has been trying to show that he is actually doing something.

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One of the criticisms that has been made at home is that there is not

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really anything going on with the renegotiation, it is all a bit of

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emperor's new clothes at the moment. Downing Street challenge that and

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insist things are happening. And in fact Europe Minister, David living

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tonne, said last night, that the technical talks were completely

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complete: The difficulty with that is - when you talk to European

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leaders here, the Finnish Prime Minister and the Estonian one, as we

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have been doing in the last 24 hours, both said to me that they

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were yet to see any real detail and that there haven't been any concrete

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proposals put on the table. All of that matters, of course, not just

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because David Cameron wants to look like he is in the right place, but

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there is only a few weeks left before he said he'd actually put

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those proposals into the public domain. Tricky times. Indeed and a

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first for a British Prime Minister, I understand that there hasn't been

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a British Prime Minister in recce Vic since Winston Churchill. I

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presume that was during the war. What is it like there, tell us what

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it is like? Well 1941 was the year. You are right, Churchill came here

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during the Second World War. Second world summits, as you well know --

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summits, as you well know, are odd affairs. And this is in that rather

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strange tradition, partly because of where the summit is taking place.

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This is the summit hotel, throughout the last couple of days, there have

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been bemused glances and bemused exchanges between the tourists who

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are here for a spot of whale watching or a strip around the

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harbour, wrapped up, wand around like Michelin men and on the other

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side you have the security men with earpieces in and leaders going about

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their business. Compared to a summit in Brussels or the kinds of things

:07:10.:07:14.

that happen in America or at G20 oer a big hardcore meeting like that.

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This is a pretty relaxed and friendly affair, a bit like the

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Icelanders themselves. Indeed they are. Don't go whale watching. That

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seems to be a rather dangerous occupation these days. Try the hot

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springs, you will enjoy them. With us now, the Conservative peer,

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Martin Callanan, who used to be a member of the European Parliament,

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and the UKIP MP, Douglas Carswell. Martin Callanan, how account Prime

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Minister say the negotiations are going well when the people like the

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leaders of Estonia and the Finns say they don't know what he wants? I

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don't know what he wants. We have it in broad terms. But we haven't seen

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the detail. Why don't we know what he wants? I think it is a good

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question. And do you have a good answer? I think their view is that

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they want to try and conclude negotiations in secret and not set

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out their negotiating position too early but of course, nobody know

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what is is on the table and we'll all look forward to seeing what it

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is they are actually asking for when they publish the letter to the

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European Council in November. You want Britain to leave the European

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Union. Is this good news or bad news, for you, the way the Prime

:08:27.:08:30.

Minister is going about it? I think it is pretty good news. I think many

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undecided vote letters realise there is no fundamentally new deal on the

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table and they are more lined to support leaving. -- voters will. Two

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years ago when David Cameron announced the in-out referendum he

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was framing it as a choice between leaving or a fundamentally new deal.

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I think this week marks the moment at which the Prime Minister starts

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to campaign for remaining in the EU, on current terms. He is more or less

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given up on the idea of a new dee. He is using a combination of project

:09:00.:09:03.

fear - saying you will be like Norway, as if it is the worst thing

:09:04.:09:09.

in the world and on the other hand, suggesting we wouldn't have cheap

:09:10.:09:12.

flights if we weren't in the EU. Both are nonsensical positions but

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this is what the bottom of the barrel looks like in Downing Street

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if you have no deal. With the Prime Minister deciding to come out

:09:20.:09:22.

against the "Norwegian option" he is taking sides now. He said at one

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stage he would rule nothing out. He has now ruled out the Norwegian

:09:27.:09:29.

option. Why would you do that? I have no idea. I don't know anybody

:09:30.:09:35.

arguing for the Norwegian option. Norway is the richest country of

:09:36.:09:40.

Europe. It is a much sore semidetached option. It is by no

:09:41.:09:44.

means perfect. They have a lot of problems. Nearly as bad as ours.

:09:45.:09:50.

They have to accept a lot of the single market policies. But they are

:09:51.:09:54.

not part of the Common Agricultural Policy, common farming 308cy, setts.

:09:55.:09:57.

There are problems in the relationship but it doesn't seem to

:09:58.:10:01.

do them harm. 70% of the population of Norway don't want to join as full

:10:02.:10:07.

members T can't be that bad. Would you be happy to have a British

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version. If we come out we won't copy Norway but it could provide a

:10:13.:10:17.

template. Would you be happy with a British version of the Norwegian

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relationship? I think it would present problems, particularly in

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terms of services, financial services in particular and we would

:10:25.:10:29.

need... Norway is covered by service, Switzerland isn't but

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Norway S. The Norway model is a bad template. Norway is in the position

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it is n because political elights wanted Norway to join and so as a

:10:38.:10:44.

prelude to membership they went into the so-called waiting room for

:10:45.:10:47.

Brussels membership. The people in Norway had more sense and their

:10:48.:10:51.

politicians said no and they were left in an awkward position. Now if

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they are in the position where five or six million can get preferential

:10:57.:11:01.

terms. Think what we could do with we left and negotiated for a genuine

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market accessed based relationship but without the red tape and

:11:05.:11:07.

condition strants that come with being in the EU. What would be wrong

:11:08.:11:13.

with that? I agree with Douglas, if we vote to leave we could probably

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negotiate ourselves a better deal than Norway or Switzerland have

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because of our relative size. But the problem s we wouldn't know until

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we did leave. That's the problem. It depends what sort of goodwill is on

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the other side, how difficult or awkward they want to be. Would, for

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instance, the big question is - would access to the single market

:11:34.:11:36.

necessarily result in accepting free movement, which is what many

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people's problem is with Europe. It is a good point but let's bore in

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mind last year we bought about #r50 billion pounds more stuff off the

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Member States than they bought off us. They will not put protection

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barriers there. They will not do that. Is the Prime Minister really

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no longer neutral on this? All the signals we see is that he is going

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to do his utmost to keep Britain in the European Union? I think that has

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always been clear. I don't think he has made much secret of the fact

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that fundamentally he wants to keep Britain in. Doesn't that weaken his

:12:14.:12:19.

hand, then? That may be right position for a British Prime

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Minister to say, that's not for me to decide. But if you are in an

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negotiation, it is surely a mistake to send out signals to the other

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side that basically - even if you give us next to nothing, I'm for

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staying N. You start the negotiation which saying - please can we have

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the concessions but don't worry we'll stay anyway, doesn't put you

:12:41.:12:43.

in the position. But the trump card is the referendum. David Cameron

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doesn't get to decide, I don't or Douglas doesn't. You do and everyone

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else does, too. We have a vote. . . In the Lords. Do you not get a vote?

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If I may, the two biggest developments that have happened in

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the European Union over the past years is one the euro has proven to

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be a disastrous thing t should never happened and slicked the migration

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crisis is a huge problem. These two developments show that the European

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Union, one, the free movement of people which I believe n we might

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need to bring in with the free movement of people, passports check

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between borders even if you are a European passport holder, you can

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still have free movement and check passports but where the euro is

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concerned that has proven the Europe project of an ever-moving forward

:13:31.:13:33.

towards a United States of Europe is not going to happen and if David

:13:34.:13:37.

Cameron can get an assurance, because there are many in Europe

:13:38.:13:40.

right now who want to move towards that United States of Europe. That

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is something we would never be prepared to go down. . I agree,

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given immigration will be such an important issue it is worth bearing

:13:48.:13:52.

in mind Iceland has a good situation with immigration. People can go to

:13:53.:13:55.

Iceland for the skills they need. It works for migrants and Iceland. Why

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don't we do that? It is the perception of outside world. To

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countries like independentia, the United States, they all think for us

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to be part of the European Union is important. The perception is very

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important but on the other hand, I know that we are being hampered by

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being part of the European Union by not being able to do free trade

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deals. The EU-India free trade deal has stuck up for years and years, we

:14:23.:14:27.

will never get that. On our own we would get there within months.

:14:28.:14:30.

That's not what the American trade representative said today or

:14:31.:14:33.

yesterday. He said America is moving to a free trade arrangement where

:14:34.:14:36.

where it is doing deals with regional groups. It is just

:14:37.:14:39.

completed one in the Pacific. It hopes to do one in Europe as well.

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Although it is way behind the Pacific one. They are not so keen

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any more to do by lateral deals. The State Department and Government

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officials tend to like the European Union, it is a project created by

:14:53.:14:57.

people like them to run humane economic social affairs Boyer his

:14:58.:15:01.

Lordship makes a powerful point we. Could have a free trade agreement

:15:02.:15:06.

with India. Isn't it absurd that Tata, a big investor in this

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country, we don't have a free trade agreement with India. We could have

:15:11.:15:15.

them if we leave the European Union. That's true but there are different

:15:16.:15:19.

types. It is easy to have a free trade agreement with third world

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country, India, China, on certain goods but we want banking services,

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which is much more difficult to get. A It is surely inconceivable that

:15:28.:15:39.

give the UK was outside the EU that it could not do a trade deal with

:15:40.:15:47.

the USA? Absolutely. I would be interested to see if politicians

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agree. Where would you rather be, Croydon or recce of it? Croydon but

:15:58.:16:07.

Reykjavik is a wonderful place! If the ideal world would be for David

:16:08.:16:12.

Cameron to go in there and renegotiate to see what the EU is

:16:13.:16:17.

actually about. If he can do that and get an efficient Europe, all the

:16:18.:16:20.

problems that the EU has, that and get an efficient Europe, all the

:16:21.:16:28.

be a good situation. We can end on agreement with that.

:16:29.:16:34.

So, a new timetable's been released for the long-awaited inquiry

:16:35.:16:36.

into the Iraq war - predicting it will be made public

:16:37.:16:39.

We don't have a date but we have a James Landale joins me now.

:16:40.:16:52.

We don't have a date but we have a rough I hear. We could see it in the

:16:53.:17:05.

summer of next year. -- date. There has been delays in the report and it

:17:06.:17:12.

was originally set up when Gordon Brown was Prime Minister in 2009. It

:17:13.:17:18.

heard its last evidence in February 2011 and yet we are still waiting.

:17:19.:17:23.

What we now know is that we have something approaching a timetable,

:17:24.:17:27.

if not a specific date, a letter sent by Sir John Chilcot to the

:17:28.:17:32.

Prime Minister yesterday and published yesterday saying

:17:33.:17:35.

Prime Minister yesterday and be finished by April and it will

:17:36.:17:38.

then go to the security services to check there are no inadvertent

:17:39.:17:42.

breaches of national security in the published document which will run to

:17:43.:17:46.

2 million words and the expectation is that it will be published in June

:17:47.:17:52.

or July next year. I cabinets nine week window when it will be

:17:53.:17:57.

published. A huge amount of frustration expressed in reaction

:17:58.:17:59.

about what many people see as a further delay. I will tell you what

:18:00.:18:04.

the Prime Minister and former Prime Minister, Tony Blair, had to say

:18:05.:18:09.

after we hear from the Speaker of the House of Commons who had this to

:18:10.:18:15.

say in The Chamber. I think it is important on behalf of the House

:18:16.:18:24.

whether it concerns him or not, that Sir John should be aware that there

:18:25.:18:29.

is a very real sense of anger and frustration across the House about

:18:30.:18:40.

the disservice that has been done. That anger reflected by some of the

:18:41.:18:43.

families of the Jewish servicemen who were killed in Iraq, and by the

:18:44.:18:48.

current Prime Minister and Tony Blair. -- British. David Cameron

:18:49.:18:56.

said he is still frustrated that it is on this existing timetable and is

:18:57.:19:00.

willing to provide more support in terms of staff from Whitehall to

:19:01.:19:04.

speed the process up. Tony Blair responded on his website and said

:19:05.:19:08.

that he and other contributors to the enquiry are not to blame for

:19:09.:19:14.

this process where contributors were given draft copies of the report,

:19:15.:19:20.

where they were criticised, offering them the opportunity to respond to

:19:21.:19:25.

that. Tony Blair said it is not right to blame that for the delay.

:19:26.:19:31.

He only found out this year about the contents and would reply by the

:19:32.:19:35.

summer. He said there are other reasons why this took so long and it

:19:36.:19:43.

is not all down to me. Thank you. We are joined by someone from the Daily

:19:44.:19:59.

Mail. I went to the BBC, I said that Sir John Chilcot is clearly five

:20:00.:20:04.

years late, most of the evidence has been made to the public, we can go

:20:05.:20:10.

through the testimony to Chilcot, and we were able to answer the

:20:11.:20:15.

question is very clearly. Do you get the impression that we now know the

:20:16.:20:21.

date? You get the feeling that a gun was put to Chilcot's head,

:20:22.:20:27.

metaphorically. Absolutely. There was a report that it would be

:20:28.:20:32.

delayed until 2017. It was reported in the Sunday Times that the whole

:20:33.:20:39.

thing had errors in the report, they had not understood how the military

:20:40.:20:44.

works, so poor old Sir John Chilcot who is getting on now, well into his

:20:45.:20:48.

70s, one of the panel is guides while... Some of the people whose

:20:49.:20:56.

sons and daughters were lost died in Iraq as well. Hundreds of thousands

:20:57.:21:02.

of deaths in Iraq. Their parents have died and they have been waiting

:21:03.:21:11.

for this bug an important point. It is an outrage. The last British

:21:12.:21:16.

soldier left Basra, left Iraq, in 2007. This report will be nine years

:21:17.:21:24.

late to stop Sir John Chilcot said that it would happen in 2011, six

:21:25.:21:30.

years after he said it would appear. This statement from Tony Blair is

:21:31.:21:34.

amazing. He got the report on him in January and took until the summer.

:21:35.:21:39.

He sat on it for six months, he said there was not a problem. A major

:21:40.:21:44.

problem! Six months he sat on it. Has the problem not been with the

:21:45.:21:49.

Maxwell eyes Asian process? The lawyers who were involved in the

:21:50.:21:55.

original enquiry were not sat next to Tony Blair, lawyers have become

:21:56.:22:05.

involved in this process. -- Maxwellisation. Chilcot should not

:22:06.:22:13.

have allowed that. He knew of the criticisms. Actually, we are going

:22:14.:22:20.

to go ahead anyway. He should not have got involved and before then he

:22:21.:22:25.

got himself distracted by Downing Street with the crucial letters

:22:26.:22:29.

between President Bush and Tony Blair and said we would publish them

:22:30.:22:33.

anyway, any Downing Street wants to censor it, they can do it. He has

:22:34.:22:39.

been dithering, and... John Chilcot? Yes. What he added with

:22:40.:22:46.

debt? Absolutely. Let's look at the people on the panel. John Chilcot is

:22:47.:22:50.

deeply embedded in the establishment. -- Wattie out of his

:22:51.:23:03.

depth? -- was he. You had one person who was completely clueless, way out

:23:04.:23:09.

of her depth. A very experienced person. She was very out of her

:23:10.:23:17.

depth. The 1 person who made some sense was the former British

:23:18.:23:22.

ambassador to Moscow. A low-grade panel. OK but you have always had

:23:23.:23:28.

strong views on the Iraq war, you were opposed to it, you were against

:23:29.:23:35.

it. Is there anything that changes your mind by doing this enquiry?

:23:36.:23:42.

What was extraordinary, going into it, was the weight of the testimony

:23:43.:23:46.

that Tony Blair represented to Parliament. I had a long

:23:47.:23:51.

conversation with Hans Blix in which he said to me that it wasn't just

:23:52.:24:01.

the notorious dossier of December 2002 but also in the famous last

:24:02.:24:12.

speech of Tony Blair to Parliament, he misrepresented what Hans Blix had

:24:13.:24:19.

found, and the weapons inspectors. I then had a conversation with Sir

:24:20.:24:21.

Stephen Wall, the Prime Minister's European private secretary, in which

:24:22.:24:28.

he witnessed Tony Blair and Alistair Campbell telling lies to the Sun

:24:29.:24:33.

newspaper. That was in order to set up President Chirac. What is

:24:34.:24:40.

interesting is how the weight of testimony was knowingly misled by

:24:41.:24:43.

the British Prime Minister of the day, and also that the testimony --

:24:44.:24:49.

that the testimony of the war is illegal. All advisers advised that

:24:50.:24:56.

the war was illegal. I said at the end of my long conversation with

:24:57.:25:00.

Hans Blix, can I just summarise what you said to me? You are saying that

:25:01.:25:04.

the Prime Minister misrepresented the facts about the war to the

:25:05.:25:07.

British people in order to sell an illegal war. Yes, I am a diplomat, I

:25:08.:25:14.

do not use such language but essentially what you are saying is

:25:15.:25:20.

true. But he is not a lawyer. He is very experienced. 27 Foreign Office

:25:21.:25:33.

lawyers... Yes, but... Yes, at 27 -- all 27 Foreign Office lawyers...

:25:34.:25:42.

That is very interesting but opinion is so polarised on the subject of

:25:43.:25:47.

Chilcot, I would suggest that both sides will be trying to reinforce

:25:48.:25:51.

what they already think. It is not the first time a report like this

:25:52.:25:56.

has taken a long time. It is frustrating. For the families it

:25:57.:25:59.

needs to happen quickly. At least we now have a date and it will happen

:26:00.:26:06.

in the summer. Before this, it could have been 2017 but at least it is

:26:07.:26:09.

next year. It is the families who need to know but also everybody

:26:10.:26:14.

needs to learn the lessons. When we debated intervening in Syria when

:26:15.:26:19.

Parliament was recalled, all the debate was about going back to

:26:20.:26:24.

lessons learned in Iraq. If we had the Chilcot report, we would have

:26:25.:26:28.

been better position. We need it now. The lessons needs to be learned

:26:29.:26:36.

quickly. OK. 8pm, BBC Radio four, tonight.

:26:37.:26:42.

Now, just over an hour ago China announced that it was to end

:26:43.:26:45.

Women will now be able to have two children.

:26:46.:26:48.

The decision was all part of China's next Five Year Plan,

:26:49.:26:51.

the country's 13th, and it looks a little different.

:26:52.:27:07.

Hey, have you heard what is going on in China?

:27:08.:28:12.

There you go, the Chinese propaganda department really watching too much

:28:13.:28:17.

Sesame Street the state! Write-down to American accent! -- these days.

:28:18.:28:22.

With us now is the Diane Wei Liang, who's an author and commentator

:28:23.:28:25.

The 1 child policy now being scrapped, that is because China now

:28:26.:28:35.

has a demographic problem, it is running out of people. Not exactly

:28:36.:28:39.

running out of people. It is running out of young people, and China has

:28:40.:28:45.

an inverted pyramid which means you have grandparents and parents who

:28:46.:28:50.

are now living longer and longer but with fewer young people to support

:28:51.:28:55.

them. Exactly. And the endless supplies of Labour has been drying

:28:56.:29:05.

up? Yes. The costs are high now. That is not only part of

:29:06.:29:12.

demographics but the Labour costs have risen. This touchy-feely, nice

:29:13.:29:21.

cartoon that we saw, is part of that not to hide the fact that the real

:29:22.:29:27.

go-go years, of 10% plus growth, they are over now? China will grow

:29:28.:29:34.

strongly as you expect a developing economy to do that no double-digit

:29:35.:29:40.

growth any more. With China's current economic size, you would not

:29:41.:29:46.

expect to grow to double digits. It is a new phase, about 7%. At that

:29:47.:29:55.

growth, we are looking at doubling output in ten years, and there is

:29:56.:30:01.

still a massive output economically at 7%. Today's growth equals 14% in

:30:02.:30:08.

2011, said China is growing very fast. The calculation is I have seen

:30:09.:30:16.

have suggested the growth rate is between four and 5% but the real

:30:17.:30:22.

significance of this five-year plan is that it marks the move of China

:30:23.:30:28.

from being a manufacturing lead smokestack industry economy to a

:30:29.:30:33.

more and more service consumer led economy.

:30:34.:30:40.

That's right and while manufacturing had been flowing and the service

:30:41.:30:45.

injury growing, it was 18% last year, now service industry counts

:30:46.:30:51.

for half of China's GDP. A bigger share of GDP than manufacturing now?

:30:52.:30:56.

It is moving that direction. This new five-year plan in itself is also

:30:57.:31:00.

slightly different. Not only in the way that you see, you know, the

:31:01.:31:04.

little commercial here, it is very Xi. And President Xi is sort of rock

:31:05.:31:09.

'n' roll President in China, believe it or not, he might not appear so

:31:10.:31:14.

when he visited the Queen last week but this plan is a little different

:31:15.:31:18.

from the last one, in that the economic element of it is going to

:31:19.:31:24.

be only 10%. 90% of the plan is going to focus on social reforms,

:31:25.:31:28.

political reforms, environmental issues. And that, again, brings in

:31:29.:31:35.

the One Child Policy, part of the social reform that will be pushed

:31:36.:31:40.

through in this plan. He is not a Liberal is he? He has been tougher

:31:41.:31:46.

since he became President. There has been a tougher crackdown on human

:31:47.:31:52.

rights' issues and dissidents under him than his predecessor? There are

:31:53.:31:56.

two points - Xi is a politically strong man. He is he has incredible

:31:57.:32:02.

power, because of his background and also because of his political

:32:03.:32:05.

astuteness and also he is pro business. He is anti-corruption

:32:06.:32:14.

which has touched on lots of high level politicians, CEOs of

:32:15.:32:17.

state-owned introprizes. By in large it is all private sectors which

:32:18.:32:23.

accounts for 80% of China's output so he is doing this, in one way to

:32:24.:32:29.

clean up the party. Let's remember the Chairman of state-owned

:32:30.:32:32.

introprizes, they are all party members. -- enterprises. At the same

:32:33.:32:36.

time he is trying to drive the business side. If China is moving to

:32:37.:32:42.

more of a consumer-driven, service economy, less of an export-led

:32:43.:32:45.

manufacturing economy, who are the winners and losers? I would suggest

:32:46.:32:51.

the emerging market commodity producers are losers because China

:32:52.:32:54.

won't need as many commodities, they are in trouble. Germany is in a bit

:32:55.:32:59.

of trouble because they are the big exporters of manufactured products

:33:00.:33:02.

and there is a huge opportunity for Britain, because we are world

:33:03.:33:05.

leaders in services and China will need more services? That's

:33:06.:33:10.

absolutely true. When you saw the steel plans, closing in the UK and

:33:11.:33:15.

-- the steel plants closing in the UK and it was the commodity, the

:33:16.:33:20.

demand, re-Will for reduction and steel plants are closing in China

:33:21.:33:26.

but the UK is in the perfect foegs trade with China for the next 20

:33:27.:33:31.

years and that's what China is interested N -- perfect position to

:33:32.:33:35.

trade with China. And what last week was about. Here is the big change.

:33:36.:33:40.

When Mr Cameron became leader of the Tory Party and leader, he talked

:33:41.:33:43.

about the big relationship Britain was going to have with India. That

:33:44.:33:47.

is not happening. The big relationship is with China and how

:33:48.:33:56.

Mr Mhrodi will be treated will be a few carpets left than the Chineseth

:33:57.:34:00.

President. Our Prime Minister sees the future much more with China an

:34:01.:34:04.

India. I don't see that. When we saw the plan, it reminded me of India

:34:05.:34:09.

which has five-year plans, the hangover frot socialist days. But

:34:10.:34:12.

India is exactly the opposite where China is concerned. India's

:34:13.:34:17.

population is increasing. I have always thought the One Child Policy

:34:18.:34:22.

has been, in my view not the right policy, it is inhumane, cause the

:34:23.:34:26.

problems, and it is not right. I'm pleased it it is done away with but

:34:27.:34:34.

in India it'll take over by 2005-30. India has a consumer-driven growth.

:34:35.:34:38.

Independentia, the opposite of China, targeting 25% of the GDPs to

:34:39.:34:42.

be manufacturing and wants to grow manufacturing. I think there is a

:34:43.:34:46.

huge opportunity for Britain with China and India. All I can tell you

:34:47.:34:50.

is dealing with the Foreign Office, all they want to talk about is

:34:51.:34:55.

China. . After Mr Mhodi's visit, that will change.

:34:56.:34:59.

The Office for National Statistics have this morning released new

:35:00.:35:01.

They show Britain to be both growing and ageing.

:35:02.:35:06.

On current trends we are expected to overtake France and become

:35:07.:35:11.

the second largest country in Europe by 2030 and become the largest

:35:12.:35:14.

This is on present trends. That will overtake Germany.

:35:15.:35:29.

The UK's population is projected to increase

:35:30.:35:32.

by 9.7 million over the next 25 years, reaching 70 million by 2027

:35:33.:35:35.

The population of England is projected to increase

:35:36.:35:47.

The vast majority of the increase. #12k3w4r that's less than ten years

:35:48.:36:00.

away. -- that's less than ten years away and will increase by

:36:01.:36:04.

The populations of the other UK countries will grow at

:36:05.:36:07.

51% of the population rise over the next 25 years is expected to be

:36:08.:36:14.

The population is also projected to continue ageing

:36:15.:36:18.

That doesn't seem a will the but means a big difference.

:36:19.:36:30.

And by that time, more than 1 in 12 of the population

:36:31.:36:33.

By 2039 there are projected to be 370 people of pensionable age per

:36:34.:36:38.

1,000 people of working age - up from from 310 in 2014.

:36:39.:36:43.

You see the trend. Growing population but also more pensioners

:36:44.:36:50.

as a percentage of the overall population. With us now, we have a

:36:51.:37:00.

journalist from the Guardian and an Conservative MP. . We have an

:37:01.:37:06.

growing segment of the population. And there are other statistics out

:37:07.:37:10.

in the last 24 hours showing how incomes are rising. We need to in

:37:11.:37:15.

some way pay for all of that. If we didn't have younger people coming

:37:16.:37:18.

into the population then those figures would be completely skewed

:37:19.:37:22.

in another way. Would they be worse in a sense? They would be worse. A

:37:23.:37:26.

higher percentage of pensionable age. Exactly. Good thing? With

:37:27.:37:30.

population comes power, if you handle it right. We will be the

:37:31.:37:34.

biggest country by population in Europe, by the middle of the

:37:35.:37:38.

searching tri? ? This is a very good sign for the future of our country.

:37:39.:37:43.

--. Search tri. I I gree with that point. We are in a strong position

:37:44.:37:47.

and the growing population means we are bringing in more young people,

:37:48.:37:51.

which helps to balance the age of our population which is a good

:37:52.:37:55.

thing. Do you have any concerns and many were expressed to me this

:37:56.:37:59.

morning on Twitter. Let me put it like this - it is all because of

:38:00.:38:03.

immigration. It is not all because of immigration. I understand that

:38:04.:38:06.

but I'm acting as a reporter here. Is this something we should be

:38:07.:38:11.

concerned about, or is it a plus? Well, the question is whether people

:38:12.:38:14.

in this country feel in control of what is happening. And if

:38:15.:38:19.

politicians are promising things like cutting net migration from

:38:20.:38:25.

hundreds of thousands of to tens of thousands which sounds like a 90%

:38:26.:38:31.

cut but at the time the promise was made it would only be a 50% cut and

:38:32.:38:36.

then they failed to achieve that and promised the again, thisp isn't

:38:37.:38:43.

going to make people feel confident in politicians' promises. It isn't

:38:44.:38:47.

always the case. There are many things driving it but there is free

:38:48.:38:51.

movement in the European Union. Whether people like it or not it is

:38:52.:38:56.

now inevitable that the face of this country is going to change. Is

:38:57.:39:02.

rising populations are going to be disproportionately from recent

:39:03.:39:07.

arrivals, from new arrivals, from first, second, third generation,

:39:08.:39:09.

sons and daughters of first, second, third generation,

:39:10.:39:14.

going to be, they are the growing bit of our population? Really

:39:15.:39:16.

going to be, they are the growing moment, the problem is we are not

:39:17.:39:20.

catering for non-retired people, if you want, very well at all. We

:39:21.:39:24.

already know about housing. I mean we have had dozens and dozens of

:39:25.:39:28.

people talk about housing this year I'm sure with you and how much it is

:39:29.:39:33.

an issue. And we have issues with childcare and schooling. We haven't

:39:34.:39:36.

built enough schools. We are not catering for the growing segment of

:39:37.:39:38.

our population. any nacsent economic benefits almost

:39:39.:39:42.

from the very any nacsent economic benefits almost

:39:43.:39:47.

issue. Isn't that an issue which any nacsent economic benefits almost

:39:48.:39:51.

politicians on both sides of the House have let us down, and

:39:52.:39:54.

politicians on both sides of the step up to the crease on, that

:39:55.:39:55.

people can welcome a step up to the crease on, that

:39:56.:39:58.

population, but it means step up to the crease on, that

:39:59.:40:00.

more schools, we need more step up to the crease on, that

:40:01.:40:04.

homes above all - step up to the crease on, that

:40:05.:40:10.

that, have failed news that step up to the crease on, that

:40:11.:40:15.

Failed is a bienry thing. I think there has been some failure. . I

:40:16.:40:21.

think we need to do much better. It needs more investment. As a

:40:22.:40:28.

think we need to do much better. It class. We have to do better. But the

:40:29.:40:31.

Government is pushing the homes class. We have to do better. But the

:40:32.:40:36.

issue now more strongly. What is remarkable under a Conservative

:40:37.:40:39.

Government, you would have thought, horrors of horrors, the level of

:40:40.:40:43.

housing ownership has gone down. Which usually defines a Tory voter.

:40:44.:40:49.

It has gone down from 69% of the population to 64% of the population

:40:50.:40:52.

owning their own homes, it is terrible. There has been

:40:53.:40:57.

owning their own homes, it is in buy-to-let. Should Britain

:40:58.:41:01.

rejoice that its population is growing so quickly? I mean many

:41:02.:41:07.

people - you are too young - but in the '60s and '70, the

:41:08.:41:09.

people - you are too young - but in this nation was of decline. Senior

:41:10.:41:14.

civil servants would talk about the nature of decline, people were

:41:15.:41:21.

queueing to leave. The orderly nature of decline. One used

:41:22.:41:26.

civilised to me. It is a huge change. It is a change, if you look

:41:27.:41:31.

at it positively it is xenlt. What is challenging is the be Bernard's

:41:32.:41:37.

point, the Government setting ridiculous targets for migration. We

:41:38.:41:41.

are three times of it. We need an immigration policy where we are

:41:42.:41:43.

encouraging the skilled people this country needs to support the ageing

:41:44.:41:48.

population. For example, the Indian restaurant industry, the curry

:41:49.:41:50.

restaurant, they cannot bring in the chefs. The tech any, there has been

:41:51.:41:56.

a list signed by the Who's Who saying - please allow us to bring

:41:57.:42:00.

in. I thought you were allowed to bring them in. They are having

:42:01.:42:04.

trouble. It is very discriminatory. With students and academics, 30% of

:42:05.:42:12.

our academicsing are foreign. Theresa May's attitude towards

:42:13.:42:15.

international students have shocking, she wants them to leave

:42:16.:42:19.

the day after they graduate. Where does she say that? Because we are in

:42:20.:42:23.

the European Union we have a discriminatory policy. We let in

:42:24.:42:29.

anybody from within the European Union, even shob has just bought an

:42:30.:42:33.

eastern European passport, even if they are a national of other country

:42:34.:42:38.

they have all the rights of an etch U citizen and we have Draconian

:42:39.:42:41.

controls against people and countries outside the European

:42:42.:42:48.

Union, even if we want their skills. Except that immigration from non-EU

:42:49.:42:52.

countries is also way above 100,000. That's true. With you Bo with you we

:42:53.:42:58.

keep including international students within the immigration

:42:59.:43:01.

figures, which is ridiculous. We have a fairer and more humane

:43:02.:43:05.

immigration policy if we had uniform control over who decides. We need to

:43:06.:43:08.

take back that control. We will be returning to this, to Europe, that

:43:09.:43:12.

is, and to our population. Thank you to both of you coming N

:43:13.:43:15.

Now if you like a good chicken tika masala and a pint,

:43:16.:43:18.

chances are you've tasted the tipple our Guest of the Day invented.

:43:19.:43:21.

Karan Bilimoria founded Cobra beer in 1989.

:43:22.:43:23.

An aspiring entrepreneur, he saw the need for a beer that was less gassy

:43:24.:43:26.

Cobra claims to be as refreshing as the former,

:43:27.:43:30.

And now, the company supplies over 98% of the UK's Indian

:43:31.:43:41.

That's called a monopoly. Get the commission on to him

:43:42.:43:49.

Other beers, I'd like to point out, are available.

:43:50.:43:51.

Our Ellie went to speak to our Guest of the Day in his office.

:43:52.:43:54.

By day, he runs a successful beer company,

:43:55.:44:00.

There is one word that sums up a entrepreneur.

:44:01.:44:08.

You have to have the guts to do it in the first place

:44:09.:44:14.

but also the guts to stay with it when others would give up.

:44:15.:44:17.

I nearly lost my business three times over the

:44:18.:44:19.

years and each time, getting through those crises was a challenge and

:44:20.:44:23.

bouncing back from them and learning from them and continuing to grow.

:44:24.:44:27.

Karan Bilimoria was born in Hyderabad in the '60s.

:44:28.:44:29.

He went to university there at the ender age of 16.

:44:30.:44:33.

He then came over to London to train as an accountant, before graduating

:44:34.:44:36.

It was there he first came up with the idea of Cobra beer.

:44:37.:44:41.

Britain was the sick man of Europe, when entrepreneurship was looked

:44:42.:44:52.

down upon and conjured up images of Delboy second-hand car salesmen.

:44:53.:44:55.

Entrepreneurship now in this country is celebrated.

:44:56.:44:57.

There is huge support for entrepreneurs.

:44:58.:44:58.

There are huge networks of entrepreneurs.

:44:59.:45:00.

There is finance available that I didn't have,

:45:01.:45:01.

There is the internet which didn't exist 25 years ago

:45:02.:45:05.

In many ways, there is no better time to be

:45:06.:45:10.

The England I came to three decades ago, compared to the UK today,

:45:11.:45:18.

this is a country that has improved in leaps

:45:19.:45:20.

Karan Bilimoria, CBE, became Lord Bilimoria in 2006.

:45:21.:45:29.

In Britain we have a lot going for us.

:45:30.:45:31.

We are less than 1% of the world's population but have the

:45:32.:45:35.

And he has strong opinions on how the place he now calls home,

:45:36.:45:41.

We have an immigration policy over the last

:45:42.:45:47.

five years, under a Home Secretary, Theresa May, that I think is

:45:48.:45:52.

damaging our economy, damaging our universities and I say this openly.

:45:53.:45:57.

I find Theresa May's immigration policies economically illiterate.

:45:58.:46:04.

Away from showing his strength in the Lords, he has branched out

:46:05.:46:09.

in the world of tech and launched a new picture-sharing app.

:46:10.:46:12.

A new challenge for someone who likes to win stuff.

:46:13.:46:21.

And we're joined now by another British entrepreneur, Charlie

:46:22.:46:23.

Mullins, who founded Pimlico Plumbers.

:46:24.:46:26.

Is it a good country to do business? Undoubtably, absolutely brilliant.

:46:27.:46:35.

Things are going from stronger to stronger, and the stronger the

:46:36.:46:41.

economy is becoming. Better in your view? Undoubtably. What has changed?

:46:42.:46:47.

The Tories getting youngsters into work. Was it not good doing business

:46:48.:46:54.

under the last Labour government until the great crash? We nearly

:46:55.:46:59.

went bust or we did go bust! That was more to do with sub-prime

:47:00.:47:04.

mortgages in America. It was under Labour's watch. They just happened

:47:05.:47:09.

to be in power. You telling me that there would not have been a crash if

:47:10.:47:14.

the Tories were in power? The death as it may not have been as big but

:47:15.:47:19.

we are onto a winner. Do you agree? Asked macro deficit. The Labour

:47:20.:47:24.

government and publishing government have been pro-enterprise. The

:47:25.:47:31.

networks and finances that exist, the support that exists,

:47:32.:47:37.

entrepreneurialism is great now. Does that mean it is easier than

:47:38.:47:42.

when you started out? When you started out, given the atmosphere

:47:43.:47:46.

and hurdles in your way, you needed gut. Maybe not so much now? If there

:47:47.:47:53.

is one word that defines being an entrepreneur, it it is guts. The

:47:54.:48:02.

guts, you always need them, it is always going to be against all odds.

:48:03.:48:07.

What is greatest technology, communications, travel. You can

:48:08.:48:11.

start and think global from day one. We are thinking global immediately.

:48:12.:48:19.

It may be a good place to do business for businessmen like

:48:20.:48:23.

yourself that is it not a place where there is a low-wage economy?

:48:24.:48:29.

Yes, I agree, I think we should increase wages. What is stopping

:48:30.:48:36.

you? We are paying more than you do, Andrew! That is not a high

:48:37.:48:42.

benchmark! What is the average salary of one of these people who

:48:43.:48:53.

works in your van birthmark plumber? -- 150 grams is the top end,

:48:54.:49:01.

anything from 80 grand. -- 150 grand. I have an apprenticeship? --

:49:02.:49:19.

can I. I mean, I am not against what we are saying about students staying

:49:20.:49:22.

or going, the most important thing is getting them into work and making

:49:23.:49:29.

them pay tax. Did you advertise for French plumbers? ?125,000? Yes. Did

:49:30.:49:37.

you run out of Polish plumbers? They are building London at the moment!

:49:38.:49:42.

We would not have an Olympics without them! The salaries are

:49:43.:49:48.

amazing but they are not the average. The latest figures suggest

:49:49.:49:53.

this may be a good country to do business but there are many people,

:49:54.:49:58.

particularly outside of London, on low wages. That is what the tax

:49:59.:50:02.

credit argument is all about, they are not paid enough to bring up

:50:03.:50:05.

families, they needs to be supplemented by tax. Although we are

:50:06.:50:11.

doing well as an economy and encouraging entrepreneurism, or we

:50:12.:50:16.

are lagging on productivity. The governments over the year not

:50:17.:50:20.

invested enough in education and skills. -- years. The amount we

:50:21.:50:27.

spend on a proportion of GDP is half that of America's. Research and

:50:28.:50:34.

development and innovation, we invest very low compared to the EU.

:50:35.:50:39.

South Korea spends double of what we do on this. We have to do this. That

:50:40.:50:43.

will increase productivity and the wages and makers more popular. --

:50:44.:50:52.

make us. We should be investing more on apprenticeships. Anyhow, you are

:50:53.:51:01.

doing a great job. Oh, you're speaking to him! Thank you.

:51:02.:51:08.

Now, doesn't time fly when you're having fun?

:51:09.:51:10.

The nights are already drawing in, Halloween's just a couple

:51:11.:51:13.

Bonfire night's next week, and there's just 56 days till Christmas.

:51:14.:51:16.

Westminster Dog of the Year has come around AGAIN.

:51:17.:51:25.

Never one to miss a beauty contest, our Giles checked out the runners

:51:26.:51:30.

# Walking the dog. # Guests who is walking the dog?

:51:31.:51:53.

# There comes a time in the Parliamentary year when they put

:51:54.:51:57.

aside tax credit cuts, renewal of Trident is shelved, and

:51:58.:52:00.

representatives of the mother of all parliaments get moments to say, oh,

:52:01.:52:11.

look at that lovely dog! Can I just point out the serious bit? The hosts

:52:12.:52:17.

do this event to celebrate not just all things dog but to promote

:52:18.:52:26.

re-homing and rescuing. He lives on the outskirts of my constituency and

:52:27.:52:29.

comes from a shelter and she is the office dog. She has

:52:30.:52:32.

comes from a shelter and she is the personality which. You need

:52:33.:52:41.

canning, and fashion plays a part. From Tweed to Willie jumpers. This

:52:42.:52:50.

year came Carla. She has done a tour of Afghanistan, she searches for

:52:51.:52:55.

explosives, she can find the parts to trigger explosives, and she is an

:52:56.:53:05.

amazing animal. Her handlers are here today. It takes 16

:53:06.:53:08.

amazing animal. Her handlers are train a dog out, and we are

:53:09.:53:11.

showcasing the work they do. Admirable stuff from the dog, but

:53:12.:53:16.

MPs will go to great lengths to take a lead and lick the opposition. It

:53:17.:53:20.

seems doggy lobbying is a bone of contention. The do not

:53:21.:53:23.

seems doggy lobbying is a bone of e-mail? It is a democracy and we

:53:24.:53:27.

drew attention, and it is amazing the other entrants that followed in

:53:28.:53:30.

drew attention, and it is amazing my wake. Does this kind of thing

:53:31.:53:31.

work, this lobbying? No! All that my wake. Does this kind of thing

:53:32.:53:41.

before someone has made a complete dog's breakfast of the press photo.

:53:42.:53:50.

Once more, just like that! Honestly, it is much

:53:51.:53:53.

Once more, just like that! Honestly, MDs! Dogs like to chase and shoot

:53:54.:54:00.

balls so perhaps it is apt that the new winner belongs to the MP for

:54:01.:54:13.

Morley. She has a very special way of celebrating victory. DOG SINGS.

:54:14.:54:48.

I'm joined now by the Conservative Mps Hugo Swire and Andrea Jenkyns,

:54:49.:54:51.

with their dogs - Rocco, Lady and Godiva.

:54:52.:54:53.

Godiva enjoys singing, it started years ago, and when I was teaching,

:54:54.:54:59.

she joined in with me. Well, congratulations. You wonder the

:55:00.:55:07.

online competition. Yes, the Democratic people's boat! -- vote.

:55:08.:55:17.

It is not a financial instrument. But you can paint quite hard, didn't

:55:18.:55:29.

you? -- campaigned. We were encouraged by the Can CLUB, we had

:55:30.:55:34.

an online thing, and brought it to people's attention. There were 19

:55:35.:55:41.

entrants, 15 were Conservative entrants, the others were Labour. Do

:55:42.:55:44.

Tories have more dogs or do they like showboating their dogs more? We

:55:45.:55:52.

are a nation of animal lovers. Cross-party? Crossbreeding

:55:53.:55:59.

cross-party? It is great fun, I had a look this morning, but there is a

:56:00.:56:04.

serious side because it promotes the Can all Club to promote responsible

:56:05.:56:15.

dog ownership because some dogs are still very badly treated. -- Kennel

:56:16.:56:22.

Club. Are I am on the all Parliamentary group for animal

:56:23.:56:31.

welfare. Now it is time to play... Here we go. Who is this and what is

:56:32.:56:40.

the name of his pooch? It is George Bush, the first it is easy, but what

:56:41.:56:51.

is the dog? Blair? ! No, it is Barney, the Spanish terrier.

:56:52.:56:56.

President Putin said, you call that a dog? He has a Scottish terrier

:56:57.:57:02.

called Miss Beazley. And this? That is Cherie Blair. That is the Downing

:57:03.:57:08.

Street cat of the day called Humphrey. This is trickier. That is

:57:09.:57:18.

Lloyd George. And the dog? The dog... It rhymes with rug. Pug! And

:57:19.:57:33.

that is Gerald Ford, and what is the name of this dog? It is what

:57:34.:57:41.

Americans like to think they always believe in. Land of the... Free. The

:57:42.:57:53.

name of the dog is liberty. President Obama with a cute little

:57:54.:58:01.

dog, what is that? At Oxford and Cambridge you do what? Row. It

:58:02.:58:06.

rhymes with that. It is Bow. There's just time before we go to

:58:07.:58:15.

find out the answer to our quiz. newspaper or magazine has Jeremy

:58:16.:58:18.

Corbyn been pictured carrying? the Sun or Simply Knitting? So

:58:19.:58:21.

what's the correct answer? It is the Sun newspaper. That is the

:58:22.:58:37.

right answer! Anyway, congratulations to the dogs. The

:58:38.:58:42.

news is on BBC One, and I will be here tonight on BBC One.

:58:43.:58:47.

I'll be here joined by Alex Salmond, Margaret Hodge, Julia Hartley

:58:48.:58:50.

Brewer, Michael Portillo, Melvyn Bragg, and Kevin Maguire tonight on

:58:51.:58:55.

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