05/01/2016 Daily Politics

Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics,

The BBC has learnt that David Cameron is to allow his

ministers to campaign for - or against - Britain remaining

The Prime Minister's expected to make the announcement later today.

But Ministers will only be able to break ranks once the UK has

completed renegotiating its relationship with the EU.

Jeremy Corbyn is in the midst of reshuffling his cabinet.

The shadow cultural secretary has already been shown the door.

There's been speculation he would sack several prominent

politicians who don't share all his views on policy.

Should Donald Trump be barred from entering the UK?

Our Ellie's been testing the mood on the streets.

Nothing wrong with a bit of inflammatory now and again just

And with 2016 set to be another bumper political year,

I am here to tell you who will be first past the post in the London

mayoral election, whether or not we will see a photo

finish agreement for the EU referendum, and who the hot odds-on

favourite is to be the next president of the United States.

All that in the next hour and with us for the duration former

Conservative International Development Secretary,

The Shadow Women and Equalities Minister,

Cat Smith, and SNP MP, Tommy Sheppard.

Now, first today to Europe because the BBC understands

David Cameron will allow members of his Cabinet to campaign on either

He's expected to make the announcement later this

afternoon, he's certainly due in the Commons at 3.30

to bring MPs up to speed on his EU renegotiation efforts.

David Cameron hopes to reach a final deal on renegotiation at the next EU

This could pave the way for a referendum as early as June.

But September is also a possibility as is a vote early in 2017.

There are a number of tricky issues still to be addressed.

Crucially, David Cameron has to reach an agreement with the rest

of the 28 states that make up the European Union.

This is easier said than done - EU President Donald Tusk says member

states are "far from agreement on several topics".

Some of the Prime Minister's demands such as banning EU migrants

from receiving in-work tax credits for four years

are proving particularly controversial.

But, assuming Cameron reaches a deal, the BBC expects Cabinet

ministers to be allowed to campaign to leave the EU

The Justice Secretary Michael Gove and Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond

have both said they would be prepared to vote no.

Home Secretary Theresa May has also left the door open to backing

Will he have to resign if Britain votes to leave the EU after leading

The Labour party say they will make the case for continued

membership of the EU, whatever the outcome

But they won't whip MPs to support their party line -

so there's potential for Shadow Cabinet splits too.

Let's speak now to BBC Five Live's Chief Political Correspondent,

John, why has this happens now? David Cameron is following through

on promises that he has given in private to senior sceptics for some

while, I don't think he realistically had a choice but to

take this step. It would have been a big shock and story if he decided

not to do it. If he tried to keep all of his ministers in line,

batting in favour of continued membership, whatever happens in

these negotiations, there was a real risk of resignations. We would be

looking at the likes of Iain Duncan Smith and Chris Grayling. It could

all unravel very, very quickly. David Cameron and his party will

have a big enough problem keeping his party united through the

process. This is dealing with a wound before it opens up. A sign of

weakness? Assignable realism. He recognises, as we all can see, that

there are deep in divisions in the Tory party. This was an accident

waiting to happen. There were senior ministers who were looking to

getting out of Europe. David Cameron has forced it all. Whatever happens

after this, David Cameron has a job to do. If the boat is to get out of

the EU, the question of David Cameron's survival becomes an issue.

Do you think some members of the Cabinet who may indeed campaign to

come out of the EU, do you see any of them leading that campaign? That

remains to be seen. We await to see who urges in the front and centre.

What we will see are the likes of potentially Iain Duncan Smith, Chris

Grayling, out there from the moment the deal is signed. That can happen

as early as a couple of weeks' time. There may be a deal in February that

is agreed by David Cameron. At this point, every bet is off and they can

go their own way. And we're joined now by the UKIP

MP, Douglas Carswell. Welcome back. Andrew, was that the

right decision? Yes, it was, and it was the obvious decision to take. It

means we all support the Prime Minister on his renegotiation,

collective responsibility continues. Once the deal is on the table for

the British public to decide, every member of Parliament can follow

their conscience and the collective responsibility ends. I got all this

grey hair from being a government whip drawing the Maastricht crisis

and I have seen what you can do, where you try to end the position

and it breaks. -- during. This is the right decision if this is what

he announces this afternoon, and it is not just in the party interest in

Britain's interest. It shows David Cameron could not hold his cabinet

together on a line here supporting. He is accepting that there are very

different views within his Cabinet. Quite rightly, he is allowing

members of his Cabinet to express those views. Not now while

negotiations are going on... Why has he announced it now? Because you

have been announcing these questions. -- asking these

questions. Is it pressure from the media? It is the realistic decision

to take and it reflect this and recognises the depth of this issue,

and this is a referendum on his renegotiation where everybody can

vote as their conscience dictate. Douglas, are you pleased? Is it a

boost for your campaign? I am pleased that we could be six months

away from a referendum and we have a chance to win it. There is real

momentum. There was a realignment in the Conservative Party with senior

figures preparing to come out and campaign to leave. People in Labour

are preparing to leave. Business leaders, opinion is shifting in

favour of leaving. It is incredibly exciting. There was a broad-based

opinion. It is very exciting. Douglas Carswell has mentioned the

Labour Party as well. If you have big figures like Theresa May all

backing an EU exit, it is a big blow for the campaign to stay in the EU.

The Conservative Party will always be split on Europe and Cameron was

between a rock and a hard place and had to give the MPs his free vote.

That will give its momentum. I don't expect any big beasts from Labour

will campaign alongside Douglas in this referendum. When I was a

Conservative backbench MP I got to know Jeremy Corbyn who was a

backbencher. I kept on bumping into him in the voting lobby when we

voted against the consensus of David Cameron Ancona. Will Jeremy Corbyn

vote to come out? There is an ambivalent relationship between the

corporatist cartel in Brussels. How can it be that the left in this

country is putting the interests of bankers ahead of working people in

Europe? Nobody has said that the EU is a perfect institution which we

support. We are saying that it is better for British workers to be in

the EU then out of it because it is through the EU that many of the

rights we have one for maternity pay and leave, workers' writes, all of

these right... Is it ambivalent? What you are getting here is a

preview of the debate on the renegotiation which will take place

in the months before the referendum but everybody in our country who is

over the aged abode can listen to the argument -- over the age of

consent can vote. You are also in favour of the EU staying in the EU.

There is an assumption that Scotland is overwhelmingly pro-EU. What is

your evidence that? That is what the polls suggest. The polls are mixed.

The polls suggest 72% of people want to stay within the EU. We want

reforms and a better EU but we can do that from the position of being

in rather than out. You ask whether this was the right decision that

David Cameron was going to take stock it is the right decision for

the Tories but not for the country. The premise that is putting his

party before the country and it is time he showed some leadership in

this. He seems to have given up the prospect of getting a deal in these

discussions with his European partners. That is a ridiculous

position for the Prime Minister to be in before he has even concluded

his discussions. What do you say? There isn't enough for those who are

already Euro-sceptic to actually support? I don't agree with Tommy.

The fact is that the Prime Minister is an extremely good negotiator. His

political opponents would say that. What are you expecting him to get?

You have to wait until he concludes his negotiations. I worked closely

with him for seven and a half years and he is the most Euro-sceptic

Prime Minister that I have known in my 30 odd years in politics. He will

get a good deal. The EU is flat on its back. There has never been a

lesser appetising time for the EU. Look at the EU, Greece, the stagnant

economy, the euro, he will have to do a deal to get Britain into a

better place and I believe he will do. He wouldn't campaign to come

out, would he? I expect him to be successful on the negotiation. It is

not a secret negotiation, everyone is revealing how it is going and I

expect him to be successful. You said he's the most Euro-sceptic

Prime Minister, would there be a situation where he campaigns to come

out? Let us wait and see the results of the negotiations, I am not

dealing with hypothetical situations. I expect him to

negotiate a successful deal. He is an opportunity to renegotiate our

relationship with Europe but the negotiations are reduced to try and

say that Polish owners cannot claim benefits, it is pathetic. -- Polish

plumbers. It has been watered down and watered-down and what we have

seen is a dilutive version of a agenda which has never been

seriously considered. -- undiluted. There is not much time left. He

should be united behind his former colleagues. Let's talk about Douglas

Carswell and being unified. What is going on with you and Nigel Farage?

We had a season of goodwill but there has been a spat between the

two of you, is it resolved? I have made my views clear and I will not

articulate them again. I was Frank. You want a fresh face? I was asked

on the strategic direction of Ukip and I have articulated that but this

is about the EU. Does it help if you have two lead campaigns to start

with? We interviewed Nigel Farage and he said that you will have to

put up or shut up. I am involved in the league campaign, and Nigel is

involved in the other campaign. -- leave. It is sensible for Ukip to be

backing both forces in a two horse race. Only one campaign will get

additional designation. Imagine a scenario where the SNP had managed

to isolate itself on the official independence campaign, of course we

want to be involved in both campaigns but the electoral

commission will designate one of them and we want to make sure we are

working closely with the officially designated campaign. Have you spoken

to Nigel Farage over Christmas? Not on the phone. What has happened? He

said that we cannot have one individual to give an impression

that Ukip is divided when actually it is very united. On the issue of

the EU referendum, we are united. We do have a common position in wanting

to leave the EU and we are campaigning with the two campaigns.

It is bizarre that you and Nigel Farage are in two different

campaigns. Are you staying within Ukip? Have you had discussions about

withdrawing? I am 100% Ukip and committed to them. And to Nigel

Farage? Nigel is doing a great job. We are 17% in the opinion polls but

I want is to be on 37%. In order to do this... In two years' time, I

don't want us to be on 70% but on 27%. There are some useful

suggestions I can make. Are you not going to say anything more? No. Do

you regret it? I very rarely regret anything. This could be one of them.

The important thing is that we will have this referendum and I think we

will win. Have you got anywhere with the

campaign requiring all four nations must vote to withdraw from the EU if

that's to pass? Well, we put the argument. Hasn't got anywhere, has

it? The Government refuses to listen to the argument. The idea of there

being a... It's rejecting it. Rejecting it out of hand because

there are many examples where a double majority is required for a

decision to be taken. The United States of America being in its

constitutional amendments being the most obvious one. I think the

problem in not allowing it is that there is a potential major

constitutional headache on the way if... Why? If Scotland votes in

large part to stay in the European Union, and England votes with an

equally large majority to leave, then I think there is going to be a

lot of anger in Scotland about being dragged out of the EU against the

will of the people that live in Scotland. Would that propell you

into campaigning for another referendum? Independence referendum

It would beg a question to which independence would be one answer but

it would need a lot of soul-searching if that takes place

and it will throw up a constitutional crisis. The poll of

polls put the remain in the EU campaign ten points ahead, as we

know from the most recent general election, polls polls, relying on

them, is a risky business. What will you be doing, what will Labour be

doing to encourage people to vote to remain? Labour's been very clear

from the outset here that we want to remain part of a reformed EU You are

going to remain come what may, that's clear? We will do that by

arguing that being in the EU is better for British workers and

British families and that we are all better off being active members of

the EU and playing a part in it. What's your evidence for that? What

are the figures that you have for saying that families are better off

within the EU, the British workers? Look at the investment the EU makes

in the UK, engs in the example, for instance, in Scotland, where the EU

supports a lot of businesses there. Outside of London and the south-east

where politics and the media tend to be quite focussed, the EU is

investing in our regions. We are net contributors, aren't we? There is an

EU fund that we could be applying to... Your local MP could lobby

their own Government. I am doing. David Cameron is refusing to engage

with the EU so that we are not getting all out that we already can.

You say there is momentum but the poll of polls just for arguments

sake does put the Recampaign campaign ten points ahead, we

haven't heard from the renegotiation deal. There is a European-wide

migration crisis. Terrorism across the continent. You might think leave

would be doing better and they're not. I was looking at some polls

recently that put the two camps neck-and-neck. We need to be

sceptical, you are right. Momentum is with Leave. We saw senior

business figures today, opinion shifting. Many of the undecideds who

are going to decide the outcome are making thaup their mind and that we

would be better off out. You are confident David Cameron should get a

good deal, should he resign if he loses this referendum? Again it's

entirely hypothetical question. It's not, it's potentially happening in a

few months? I expect him to successfully renegotiate Britain's

position. Should he resign... If he does so successfully I expect him to

win. And what Cat said is right, people will decide on the basis of

their living standards, what's best for their family. But this is going

to be a tight debate. I think that the two campaigns are neck-and-neck.

We are going to see the result of negotiations and then everyone makes

up their mind. Thank you for telling us that.

Parliament's expenses watchdog is considering a further crackdown

But what is IPSA considering as a replacement for rental

Is it a) student-style halls of residence b) house boats

on the Thames c) Battersea power station or d) the Hilton on Park

Although other hotels are available.

of the show our MPs will give us the correct answer!

We are saying goodbye to you at this stage. Lovely to be here.

It's the reshuffle that seems to have gone on for rather a long

But this lunchtime we'll finally be getting details

of who is in and who is out of Jeremy Corbyn's new look Shadow

Let's talk now to a man who knows what's going on,

the BBC's Assistant Editor, Norman Smith.

You are laughing, I am not filled with confidence! This has been the

longest reshuffle in history with not that much going on. Is Jeremy

Corbyn talking to every member of the Labour Party before he moves

anyone? I was laughing because you suggested we might have some details

by lunchtime. I doubt it because we now discover that the Shadow Cabinet

meeting scheduled for quarter to one has been cancelled. Why? Because

Jeremy Corbyn does not have a new Shadow Cabinet so that meeting will

take place we do not know when, sometime later this afternoon. This

is a reshuffle which has now been going on for more than 24 hours, so

far only one person has been ousted, that's the Shadow Culture Secretary

Michael Dugher. In a way not surprising because he has been a

public critic of Jeremy Corbyn. What is surprising is the response to his

sacking because a whole series of senior Shadow Cabinet ministers have

issued statements backing Michael Dugher saying what a terrific member

of the Cabinet he is, how he manages to reach out to northern

working-class voters, what a loss he will be to the Shadow Cabinet and

that from figures like Andy Burnham, Tom Watson, some of the big beasts

in the Shadow Cabinet. My sense is where we are now, Jeremy Corbyn

finds himself hemmed in. He can't do what he wants to do, which is move

Hilary Benn and move Maria Eagle because he knows if he does that he

faces a Shadow Cabinet revolt and resignations. Where we are heading,

eventually, I think, is towards not a revenge reshuffle, but potentially

a damp squib reshuffle. In the end Jeremy Corbyn realised he didn't

have the power or strength to do what he wanted to do, in your mind?

Yeah, I think he will present it as underlining how he is willing to

listen to different voices, he is not going to carry out some ruthless

sort of purge. The reality, I think, is this, there are people around him

who want him to seize this moment in the wake of the Oldham by-election,

in the wake even of the Syria vote when something like 70% of the party

backed him, they want him to seize this moment and they think he lacks

the steel, the ruthlessness to get rid of some of his dissidents and

critics in the Shadow Cabinet. He, however - he likes to discuss

things. He likes to talk things through. He likes to reach consensus

and I think by inclination he does not want to be in the position of

having to shove people out the door, never mind the threat of

resignations which there almost certainly would be and a clear

warning from the Chief Whip that if he did that the Shadow Cabinet would

implode because there would be a London of -- a load of Ministers who

would say right, we are out of here. We will leave you there for what may

turn out to be a long afternoon! And with us now former

Shadow Chancellor, Chris Leslie. Welcome back. Would you describe

this as a revenge reshuffle or a purge? Michael Dugher said it would

be wrong to have a revenge reshuffle and look what's happened to him, I

am not sure why he has been reshuffled, what exactly his sin

was. I think he was very effective in opposing the Government and

opposing the Conservatives. I don't think removing him makes Labour's

chances of winning any greater. I am afraid that there is a sort of

natural impetus amongst the hard-left who want to tighten their

control, they want to sideline moderate voices when they have the

chance to do so. It looks as though it might be more incremental. We

don't know the time-scale of this particular reshuffle. I don't think

anybody should be surprised about that is the nature of the hard-left.

You built this up. You and some of your, as you describe them moderate

colleagues, have obviously been briefing about this revenge

reshuffle, this purge that you feared. It's not happening. We don't

know because the reshuffle is going on and on. Obscuring a lot of very

good campaigning that people were doing on rail fares, the housing

bill in the House of Commons. The Government has tried to hide beneath

this news of the reshuffle, a major change on European referendum

policy. What we should be doing, of course, is appealing to the wider

public and listening to what the public's views are. This is all

before we even get to some of the economic and fiscal issues where

according to a poll yesterday only 18% of the public, apparently, have

confidence in the current front bench view when it comes to the

economy. What was wrong with Michael Dugher I think Jeremy Corbyn as

leader of the Labour Party is within his rights to pick the people that

he wants to serve in his Shadow Cabinet. If he doesn't want people

in the Shadow Cabinet who spend more time attacking the Labour Party

leadership than the Tory benches opposite us, he is perfectly within

his rights to do that. I think Jeremy is -- Jeremy is in a wrong

position, we ended 2015 on a strong note, we pshed back on credits and

police cuts and he is trying to realign the top team to match more

what the PLP is and the party. I think the current Shadow Cabinet,

frankly, is to the right of where the PLP is. If you look for instance

on the vote on Syria, more Labour MPs voted with Jeremy Corbyn than

with Hilary Benn. You would expect him to move Hilary Benn You just

said you wanted him to realign. If he was realigning he would move

Hilary Benn because he holds a contradictory position on air

strikes. He would be moving Maria Eagle from Shadow defence because

she doesn't agree with the view on Trident, so he has bottled it The

reshuffle hasn't finished yet. Would you be disappointed if that doesn't

happen I won't be disappointed with anything that comes out of this

reshuffle. It's a minor change, it's not a full reshuffle. It's not

all-out. I regret the fact you have said what you said about Michael

Dugher and saying he was attacking more time on the - he is an

effective communicators when it comes to an effective fighting force

against appalling right-wing changes. I hope he continues to do

that from the back benches. I don't think it was right to have

characterised Michael in that way. His sin, I think, was to dare to

have different views and we know that the hard-left famously cannot

tolerate any dissident. Who are the hart-left, Chris Is it Cat? A lot of

people are in the ascendency within the Labour Party who associate with

the hard-left. I am a Labour MP, I am proud to be Labour and I am

assuming you feel the same. I got elected as a Labour MP. You said we

were too right-wing. Not to fight internally. It's right that Jeremy

Corbyn has a team around him he trusts. Absolutely. He can't be an

effective leader... He didn't trust Michael Dugher? He is either having

a realignment or not. To put to you, Michael Dugher did describe momentum

as stupid and that's the grass roots organisation, not just of Labour

Party members but others. Is that the sort of language that will help

this integration to stop this in-fighting within Labour? We all

care about Labour winning in the future and if we end up with a

hard-left agenda, whether it's printing money, whether it's

nationalisation without compensation, whatever it happens to

be, the public will take a view on that and I don't know what you think

about the opinion poll that put Labour at 18% of trust. They'll have

to take a pinch of salt after the last general election. A lot of

people are in marginal seats, yourself included, we have to start

not just listening to those who feel strongly about a hard-left wing

position but want to listen to the wider public. If we see people like

Maria Eagle, for example, being sidelined because she cares about a

strong defence for our country, I think that would be massively

regrettable. I hope it doesn't happen. We will see how this pans

out. This is what the Labour Party has become, this in-fighting with

two different factions when there are issues that people are worried

about, whether it's the economy, whether it's flooding, whether it is

air strikes in Syria and this is all we have had from the Labour Party.

As a party, we will have debate within, there is no Labour MP I

agree with 100%. There is the same for Chris, as well. We are a

coalition of people who come together around the values that the

country... You are not coming together, are you? Internally we

will S have these discussions. Do you think Jeremy Corbyn is going to

lead Labour to victory in 2020? It's so far away. I worry that the way we

are going is moving away from electability, I hope that we can

wake up and realise the public looking at this, they want to hear

about campaigning on flooding, what's happening on housing bill,

the European referendum, but all they see is a sort of narrowing

view, the sort of disdainful hard-left focussing inWardley,

rather than engaging with the wider public on things they care about.

That's my anxiety. What do you say to that I would say that this week

we have been campaigning on the railways. Nobody's heard it. We have

and I have been doing it and you have been doing it. Where have the

public not heard of it We moved our policy position to something that's

closer to where the public are than what we had previously. If you ask

the public they would like to see railways back in public ownership,

is that hard-left? What do you say when you view this

going on? You have experience with the Labour Party. In one sense, this

debate is less relevant because the Labour Party has been replaced by

the centre-left party, the SNP. I do think the people of England need a

centre-left alternative. Who represents that? It is sad that is

not there at the moment. Two things need to happen. All of us have

witnessed in the House of Commons the most amazing infighting going on

within the Labour benches and as an observer it seems to be a tax on the

current leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, rather than attacks from Jeremy

Corbyn. The people on Chris's wing of the party needs to recognise and

respect that Jeremy Corbyn has a mandate to be leader but Jeremy

Corbyn also need to show some leadership. There has been a lot of

pussyfooting around, indecision, not whipping decisions, not seeking

backing on certain things, that needs to stop and he needs to start

acting like a leader and get respect from all wings of the party to be

able to do it. Do you think you will get it? I do not have the patience

of some of those who have stuck it out in the Shadow Cabinet. It is not

right to sit by and see good colleagues being sacked. Michael was

the only one we know about so far. They are good colleagues who care

about Labour winning and campaigning, and have been

disparaged as somehow wanting to attack Labour its self, rather than

fighting to win a general election. What are you going to do about it? I

think it is important that those of us who do believe in a moderate

centre-left Labour Party fight strongly for that and I am vocal for

that. At this stage, the hard left needs to be prepared for that. How

we going to fight for that? Let's see how the reshuffle goes stop are

you going to challenge Jeremy Corbyn and the hard left? Wants to focus on

getting the Labour Party into tip top shape and appealing to the

general public. Andrew Mitchell? May I make two points? Firstly, any

party that is seriously considering replacing somebody of the character

and quality of Hilary Benn is not in a good place, particularly given

some of the names suggested stop he does not agree with the leader. In

the end, Jeremy Corbyn has to take position of his party or he will be

buffeted around on the waves and that is why I have some sympathy

with Cat. Thank you for the advice. Thank you.

Now, 2016 could be a humdinger of a political year.

Are the bookies hoping for a bumper crop of bets?

Earlier, I spoke to Alex Donnahue from Ladbrokes.

I began by asking him if the odds on the EU referendum were still very

close between the leave and remain camps?

If the referendum does take place this year,

we say it is the even money favourite that the UK votes to stay,

If the referendum does happen this year, those are the odds,

and we say it is a 50-50 chance that we will stay put

The bets to leave are the ones that are definitely shortening.

Those odds are around 3/1 this time last year.

Those odds are coming in all the time.

My prediction would be that as soon as we get an announcement

of the year or date those odds will get shorter still.

Let's have a look at the mayoral election also this year.

Labour have got Sadiq Khan, there are other candidates of course

but how does it look between those two?

That is another one where we make pretty much a coin toss

although Sadiq Khan is the odds-on favourite at 8/11.

Zac Goldsmith just behind at 11/10 , so we are saying that Sadiq Khan

is the narrow but odds-on favourite to become the Mayor

What about the future of the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn?

There had been plenty of speculation that he might be replaced before

2020, how was it looking from your side?

I should say that he is odds-on to actually survive until 2020.

Those who think there will be a reshuffle this year

A controversial figure in the USA, what are the odds on him or anybody

He is the second favourite to become the next president at 4/1.

Those odds were really long not so long ago, 100/1, 200/1.

I should add that he is even shorter at 2/1 to visit the UK this year.

I'm not sure too many people would be pleased to see that

but as far as the other candidates are concerned,

Hillary Clinton, odds-on favourite 4/6, and for the Republicans,

Marco Rubio, 11/2, Ted Cruz, 8/1 and Bernie Sanders at 16/1

if he does get the Democratic nomination.

Let's come closer to home and talk about the local elections coming

What are the chances of Ukip winning seats in Wales?

We think they have a decent chance of picking up a handful of seats

in Wales, maybe eight or maybe nine, but to get ten, that is 3/1.

And the Scottish Nationalist Party, they did extremely

What about this year's Holyrood elections?

They did indeed and a clean sweep is 7/2.

Let's talk to the Guardian's Polly Toynbee and Sam Coates

Happy New Year to both of you. Looking good. Sam, who is going to

fare best in the May elections? I think London will be the biggest

thing, the Westminster bubble. At the moment, it feels like Siddique

Khan is narrowly ahead. We had interviews with both Zac Goldsmith

and Siddique Khan and Zac Goldsmith put in a curiously poor performance

on the radio this morning, sanding unsure of himself on delicate

allegations against Sadiq Khan. He has been around a while and it feels

like he is likely in front. The Zac Goldsmith campaign backed by his

company, they are going to throw everything at this. It is close but

it feels like Labour are in with a chance. However, that might not be

altogether good news for the wider Labour Party if it means Jeremy

Corbyn can claim a win and thereby solidify his position as Labour

leader because many will look at the elections and whether or not Labour

is dragged down by its current leader or whether in fact that's he

is an electoral liability. Holly, how do you see it in terms of the

key elections? Is it true that if Khan winds for Labour then that will

just lend power to Jeremy Corbyn? It looks like Khan will win. Labour is

extraordinarily strong in London, getting stronger all the time.

London is almost the Labour heartland. Khan, the son of a bus

driver coming he is Mr London. His experience as a politician will

show. Zac Goldsmith is a newcomer, a beginner, not terribly good at it.

Will it affect the views of Jeremy Corbyn? I don't think Khan will be

dragged down by Jeremy Corbyn's lack of popularity and I don't dig it

will show that Jeremy Corbyn is a great success. Labour can win all

kinds of elections, locally around country. Unaffected for good or bad

by Jeremy Corbyn. The Conservative leadership contest. Now we know that

David Cameron is not going to stand again, and depending on what happens

with the EU referendum which could be as early as June, it would be

surprising if there was not already some pretty clear jostling for

position other than what we know. Yes, the preplanning for this has

begun in earnest and there are conversations about it. The Times

had a big hole about this last week and we found it is pretty much neck

and neck among Tory voters. -- poll. What was interesting was what was

going on with the wider public which showed Boris Johnson comfortably out

in front, Theresa May in second and George Osborne in third. The numbers

suggest that while Boris Johnson is the Heineken politician, George

Osborne is whatever the opposite of that is not a dry white wine

politician! Doesn't translate very well among Labour voters or Ukip

voters or Lib Dem voters, so really his popularity is in that narrow

Tory Brecon and that might be enough to get across the line but it might

also worry conservatives that he does not have that appeal despite

months and months of presenting himself as a man of the working

people, the man of the Northern Powerhouse, that is not shifted the

public attitudes towards him. He has a bit of time but people have

already made up their minds. What is the opposite of a Heineken

politician? Give us analogy on that. George Osborne's chancers will hinge

on the economy performance. We have two remember that the most important

being to happen in Britain for a long time is the EU referendum. --

chances. It decides the fate of this nation for ever and it could be

catastrophic if we pull out stop if George Osborne put his shoulder to

the wheel and failed or only just scraped past in getting Britain to

remain then I think he will look quite weak. If on the other hand

Caroline Osborne got 65% and put it to bed for ever to end the ludicrous

rift in the Tory party, sending the other side away with their tail

between their legs, then I think he is in a strong position. A lot of it

depends on winning this most important battle, far more important

than any internal warfare is in either party. Finally, there is talk

about Scotland. The SNP could do even better this time round than

last time. It does feel like they are in a commanding position and the

big danger for Scotland is the Labour Party. People are talking

down here about the need for Labour to make progress in the May

elections and showing that the beginning to claw back some of the

territory from the in Scotland but there is no sign that is working.

Nicola Sturgeon appears like a Teflon politician and if you see

Labour facing another catastrophic defeat in May then the chances are

that the moderate politicians will also fall by the wayside, and then I

think one of Jeremy Corbyn's analyses will come in and take her

place, meaning that the Scottish Labour Party is pretty much a Jeremy

Corbyn entity. We saw some polls that they would narrowly votes for

Jeremy Corbyn if there was an election immediately and the SNP is

now behind the leader if Labour does catastrophically in May. What

evidence is there of any recovery by Labour in Scotland? We make no bones

about it, it will be a challenging collection for Labour in Scotland

and we have a long way to come back from the general election defeat

where we were almost wiped out by the SNP. Nothing has changed? We

have to give it time and we earn the trust of voters in Scotland, and

that will not happen overnight stop I will be out in Scotland,

campaigning, knocking on doors, with my party and it will be a slog. We

can come back but it will take time. Is cosier the right leader? She is a

fantastic leader of the SNP. I am happy to do forcer -- I am happy to

support. -- Kezia. Should there be a bar? It is going to be challenging

and as I am not Scottish myself I will not set any bars. In a way,

will and SNP victory be equal to or better to last time round then give

you a mandate? We probably won't be seeking a referendum on independence

in the election, that is not part of the manifesto. Would it

kick-start... One thing we will see in our

kick-start... One thing we will see powers and authority coming north of

the border and the Scottish Government having more control to

shape the lives of people in Scotland. In that sense, there is

unfinished business from the last referendum, and it will be for the

government to decide how it responds to the wishes of the people in the

SNP does get the majority. We do intend to fight for every single

vote, we take nothing for granted in this election. What has the SNP

achieved so far at Westminster? We provided a strong voice for

Scotland's... What has been achieved, policy? The SNP won the

election in 56 out of 65 seat in May but we did not foresee the type of

government that we have seen in England. In those circumstances, it

is difficult to actually achieve things but there are certainly many

aspects in which our resistance with others has been part of the process

of making the government run away from debates, whether that be the

Human Rights Act, the timing of the EU referendum or the tax credit

issue. The independence referendum, Nicola Sturgeon kick-started the SNP

election bid and said the SNP has a special responsibility to lead a

renewed debate about independence, do you agree? Would be a platform

for another Scotland is now much more relaxed

after the referendum as a country. It's heading on a journey which I

think will lead to independented pence. One of the interesting...

When? One of the interesting opinion poll questions is if you ask people

do they think they'll see independence in their lifetime and a

clear majority, 60%-plus, of people say yes to that question. It's now

seen as a natural state of affairs, rather than a far off distapt dream.

Is it a natural state of affairs, people might say now seize the

opportunity, the SNP may never as popular as now in Scotland, why

wouldn't you go for it? It's not even been 18 months since we had a

thorough referendum and thorough examination of this question and we

respected the decision that was taken. Although we would point out

that one of the reasons why a lot of people voted against independence is

because they were made promise that is have not been kept. It's part of

our job to try and make sure those promises are kept and to advance the

cause of independence And perhaps use powers you already have at your

disposal? Yes and to get more powers we can do more. There hasn't been a

demonstration of what you have done with the powers so far. If you ask

people who don't have to pay tuition fees, or people who are sick don't

have to pay for medicine... Delays on the Forth Bridge, are thee things

you have achieved? Which one will I talk about? Let's start with

admissions. The health service in Scotland, we obviously need to do

more and there is room for improvement we are achieving the 95%

target on waiting times... That wasn't the target you set. 95% was

the target. I thought it was 98%. The target was 95% and that's being

achieved. What about delays to the Forth Road Bridge, closed for weeks

and the budget cut. The reason it was closed was not to do with that.

Labour tried to make a point on that and had to retract quickly on it.

The bridge is an old structure, 50 years old this year. It's coming to

the end of its life. These are things you have power to do

something about. The Scottish Government took a safety first

attitude, we closed the bridge. Put be public safety first and we were

able to get it open ahead of schedule. It was delayed and

suddenly it was announced it would be early. The ferry crossing is

under budget and ahead of schedule in construction. Has flood defence

been reduced? Not as much as England and Wales It's been reduced and

communities in Scotland have had the most dreadful time over Christmas

and new year, was that a wise decision? There are warnings that

rivers are still rising in Aberdeenshire tonight. We need to

look and see if there is enough being put in to flood defence. There

is a cut of 6% in the budget. However, George Osborne is planning

a cut of 30%. These are things that you have the powers to do something

about. We don't set the overall Scottish budget, that's set by

George Osborne. Tldz but there are things you can do. I am trying to go

through some issues. Free education, free medicine. In terms of the next

Conservative leader, the starting gun has been fired, there are going

to be members of the Cabinet to campaign on the referendum. Who

would you put your money on? There are two outstanding candidates, one

is George Osborne and the other is Boris Johnson. Who is your favourite

Both have tremendous qualities. The Labour Party can only dream of

having two candidates of that sort of calibre. Only one can be the next

leader. The point that your intelligent and clever journalists

were making about the leadership election was not taking sufficient

account of the fact that the parliamentary party decide on the

last two and of course within parliament George Osborne is very,

very dominant. He is almost certain to get on to the ballot paper. The

question is who else will get on to the ballot paper with him and the

public, members of the Conservative Party will choose between those two.

That's a factor which I don't think Sam sufficiently put into his

calculations. Who would you like to be the next leader It's too early to

say. Both are strong, appealing candidates, not just within the

Conservative Party but widely across the country. Do you think it was a

mistake by David Cameron to announce he wasn't going to stand next time.

That's what everything will be about, post the referendum, whatever

the result No, it was an extremely clever to do. It avoids the terrible

problems that Tony Blair had within his parliamentary party. Making it

clear means he owes no one anything. He can reshuffle as he sees fit and

everyone knows when he is going. No one is agitating to get rid of him.

That may change after the EU referendum depending on what

happens. In terms... I don't think it will actually. He said when he is

going to go, by the end of this parliament. The Tory Party owes

David Cameron a huge debt. Can he really stay on and serve a full

term? Surely whatever happens with the EU referendum once that result

is clear there will be a case for him to step down before. That's a

matter for him and no one in the Conservative Party really believes

it's a matter for anyone else. How worried about the economy, slowing

down in terms of growth and impact here That's the central issue in

this parliament, it's whether we can sustain the British economy doing

better than other European economies, creating an extraordinary

number of new jobs, really boosting and lifting living standards,

getting young people into work. Those are the real issues which

people want to see us deliver on and that's our challenge. Thank you.

More than half a million Brits have signed a petition demanding

Donald Trump be banned from entering the UK.

Later today the Parliamentary Peitions Committee meets

and will decide whether or not parliament should debate just that.

Welcome to the first moodbox of 2016.

Now a few weeks ago a certain US presidential hopeful said he thought

all Muslims should be barred from entering the USA.

A subsequent petition here said he should be barred

So what better place to ask people than here?

Should Donald Trump be allowed in or kept out of Britain?

What he said is wrong, we don't have to listen to it,

but if we start blocking him then we'll be doing what he is doing

saying Muslims aren't allowed in the United States.

No, I don't know some of the statements he's making quite

fit the inclusive culture we would like to showcase

Celebrity personality on politics is something we should probably

Should we let him into the UK or not?

Well, unlike Donald Trump this street is pretty quiet so I think

we need to take the moodbox somewhere a bit busier.

# Nellie the elephant packed her trunk and said goodbye

# Off she went with a trumpety trump.

There is a few little crazies already in the UK, aren't there?

Yeah, but we don't want another one here really.

Nothing wrong with a bit of inflammatory now and again

# Off she went with a trumpety trump.

Screw Donald Trump, he is an abomination to America.

I think he speaks what a lot of people won't speak.

And, yes, I do actually feel he should be allowed in the country.

We let a lot of other people in and we never track them.

He is a bit of a toe-rag, to be honest.

A toe-rag, no one else has called him a toe-rag.

He is such an idiot, let's have a go at him.

The last time I checked around 550,000 people had signed

the petition saying that Donald Trump should not be

But then another 40,000 people signed a petition against that

petition saying he should be allowed in.

We didn't have anywhere near that many people for the moodbox

but there was an overwhelming majority that said Donald Trump

And we're joined now by the writer and broadcaster,

and Republican supporter, Charlie Wolf.

With that many on the petition shouldn't parliament discuss it? I

think it's already been discussed. We made statements. Listening to the

programme today and all the issues you were discussing, the floods,

Isil, Labour Party reshuffle, if it's happening or not happening, do

we really want to spend a morning discussing Donald Trump? It only

actually is what he would love. He thrives on publicity. A matter of

fact, if he has any problem, I don't know if it's number one or not, if

he is not number one he will think you are all stupid. As Donald Trump

would say. It's been done. What are you going to say that hasn't been

said? Let's ask them. Are you in favour of a debate on this? ? I am

more than happy to debate it in parliament, I hope the committee

allow us that opportunity. What would you say? We should have the

debate with him. He should come or shouldn't be barred We should show

him exactly how London is and it's not a place he believes it to be and

that communities live alongside each other and rub along fine. Should he

be allowed? ? I would probably say no. I don't think he should be

welcome here. Why not? Given statements about saying against

Muslims, for example, I think it's offensive to a large number of

British people. I don't think he should be allowed here. He could be

the next US President. When this guy is possibly elected and he is banned

from the country, you know, our closest ally? We will cross that

bridge when we come to it. Let's hope for the sanity of the world

that he is not elected. I hope the American people come to their senses

on that one and see through Trump. He is a nasty man peddling awful

ideas which are set to divide people and don't get to the heart of real

problems we face. Should that not be a question for debating with him

rather than barring him there are lots of other nasty people that we

do let into the UK? I am in favour of talking to people with whom we

don't agree. I think it's extremely important. On this issue I wouldn't

ban him. I think he should be brought here for education. I rather

agree with what Cat said. Let him come here and see for himself that

what he was saying in the United States is complete rubbish. Can you

really class Donald Trump with religious extremists and war crim

naps? He is not the worst but I think he is certainly an extremist

-- criminals. His views are extremely offensive to many people

who are living here and they do nothing to try and achieve the type

of dialogue we need to achieve, particularly with Islam Nordtveit to

achieve world ksh - in order to achieve world peace. You were happy

to have the money invested in Scotland by Donald Trump? He invests

for his own benefit rather than anyone else. Scotland has

benefitted. A golf course and he has bought a hotel. They would be there

anywhere. Perhaps you shouldn't have taken the money if you wanted to ban

him. No one got the money, Jo. It's still investment in Scotland. It's

still investment. What's fascinating is there are people that share that

view. Both in this country and in the United States. You could be like

Jebb Bush and say Donald Trump is unhinged and it's a provocative

statement, where does it get you? I want to know where that statement

has traction. Maybe it's been inartfully presented and yes, I

agree, I think it's racist or insulting, but there are people with

fears. We need to discuss that issue, not just from his point of

view, but again from the angle of the constituencies. What are charnss

of him winning the nomination - chances Originally it was sort of

like the chances of a celluloid cat chasing a mouse through hell. It's

conceivable, very small, but, you know what, no one knows. I talk to

friends in DC and we are all totally confused by this. The rules have

been rewritten. Let's see what happens. Yeah. We will get you back

on snoochlt it will be interesting. Thank you very much. -- We will get

you back on. It will be interesting. There's just time before we go

to find out the answer to our quiz. The question was: what is

the Parliamentary expenses watchdog considering as a replacement for

MPs' rental properties in London? A) student-style halls of residence

b) house boats on the Thames c) Battersea power station or d)

the Hilton on Park Lane Does anyone Anyone know the answer? I am afraid

not. Trump hotel? All of them sound more expensive than the current

arrangement. It's actually the student halls. Would you like to be

in student-style accommodation? The South Bank apartments are pretty

much that anyway. You know, do you? My London home is no expense to the

taxpayer. That's a no then. I don't pay for my accommodation either so I

am not sure. The One o'clock News is starting

over on BBC One now. Andrew and I will be back

here at 11.30am tomorrow for the first PMQs of 2016

and all the big political stories