05/01/2016 Daily Politics


05/01/2016

Jo Coburn with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


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LineFromTo

Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics,

:00:38.:00:39.

The BBC has learnt that David Cameron is to allow his

:00:40.:00:48.

ministers to campaign for - or against - Britain remaining

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The Prime Minister's expected to make the announcement later today.

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But Ministers will only be able to break ranks once the UK has

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completed renegotiating its relationship with the EU.

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Jeremy Corbyn is in the midst of reshuffling his cabinet.

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The shadow cultural secretary has already been shown the door.

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There's been speculation he would sack several prominent

:01:18.:01:18.

politicians who don't share all his views on policy.

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Should Donald Trump be barred from entering the UK?

:01:22.:01:23.

Our Ellie's been testing the mood on the streets.

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Nothing wrong with a bit of inflammatory now and again just

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And with 2016 set to be another bumper political year,

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I am here to tell you who will be first past the post in the London

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mayoral election, whether or not we will see a photo

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finish agreement for the EU referendum, and who the hot odds-on

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favourite is to be the next president of the United States.

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All that in the next hour and with us for the duration former

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Conservative International Development Secretary,

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The Shadow Women and Equalities Minister,

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Cat Smith, and SNP MP, Tommy Sheppard.

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Now, first today to Europe because the BBC understands

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David Cameron will allow members of his Cabinet to campaign on either

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He's expected to make the announcement later this

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afternoon, he's certainly due in the Commons at 3.30

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to bring MPs up to speed on his EU renegotiation efforts.

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David Cameron hopes to reach a final deal on renegotiation at the next EU

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This could pave the way for a referendum as early as June.

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But September is also a possibility as is a vote early in 2017.

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There are a number of tricky issues still to be addressed.

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Crucially, David Cameron has to reach an agreement with the rest

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of the 28 states that make up the European Union.

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This is easier said than done - EU President Donald Tusk says member

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states are "far from agreement on several topics".

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Some of the Prime Minister's demands such as banning EU migrants

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from receiving in-work tax credits for four years

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are proving particularly controversial.

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But, assuming Cameron reaches a deal, the BBC expects Cabinet

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ministers to be allowed to campaign to leave the EU

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The Justice Secretary Michael Gove and Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond

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have both said they would be prepared to vote no.

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Home Secretary Theresa May has also left the door open to backing

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Will he have to resign if Britain votes to leave the EU after leading

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The Labour party say they will make the case for continued

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membership of the EU, whatever the outcome

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But they won't whip MPs to support their party line -

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so there's potential for Shadow Cabinet splits too.

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Let's speak now to BBC Five Live's Chief Political Correspondent,

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John, why has this happens now? David Cameron is following through

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on promises that he has given in private to senior sceptics for some

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while, I don't think he realistically had a choice but to

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take this step. It would have been a big shock and story if he decided

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not to do it. If he tried to keep all of his ministers in line,

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batting in favour of continued membership, whatever happens in

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these negotiations, there was a real risk of resignations. We would be

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looking at the likes of Iain Duncan Smith and Chris Grayling. It could

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all unravel very, very quickly. David Cameron and his party will

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have a big enough problem keeping his party united through the

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process. This is dealing with a wound before it opens up. A sign of

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weakness? Assignable realism. He recognises, as we all can see, that

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there are deep in divisions in the Tory party. This was an accident

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waiting to happen. There were senior ministers who were looking to

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getting out of Europe. David Cameron has forced it all. Whatever happens

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after this, David Cameron has a job to do. If the boat is to get out of

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the EU, the question of David Cameron's survival becomes an issue.

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Do you think some members of the Cabinet who may indeed campaign to

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come out of the EU, do you see any of them leading that campaign? That

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remains to be seen. We await to see who urges in the front and centre.

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What we will see are the likes of potentially Iain Duncan Smith, Chris

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Grayling, out there from the moment the deal is signed. That can happen

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as early as a couple of weeks' time. There may be a deal in February that

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is agreed by David Cameron. At this point, every bet is off and they can

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go their own way. And we're joined now by the UKIP

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MP, Douglas Carswell. Welcome back. Andrew, was that the

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right decision? Yes, it was, and it was the obvious decision to take. It

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means we all support the Prime Minister on his renegotiation,

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collective responsibility continues. Once the deal is on the table for

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the British public to decide, every member of Parliament can follow

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their conscience and the collective responsibility ends. I got all this

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grey hair from being a government whip drawing the Maastricht crisis

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and I have seen what you can do, where you try to end the position

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and it breaks. -- during. This is the right decision if this is what

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he announces this afternoon, and it is not just in the party interest in

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Britain's interest. It shows David Cameron could not hold his cabinet

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together on a line here supporting. He is accepting that there are very

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different views within his Cabinet. Quite rightly, he is allowing

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members of his Cabinet to express those views. Not now while

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negotiations are going on... Why has he announced it now? Because you

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have been announcing these questions. -- asking these

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questions. Is it pressure from the media? It is the realistic decision

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to take and it reflect this and recognises the depth of this issue,

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and this is a referendum on his renegotiation where everybody can

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vote as their conscience dictate. Douglas, are you pleased? Is it a

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boost for your campaign? I am pleased that we could be six months

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away from a referendum and we have a chance to win it. There is real

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momentum. There was a realignment in the Conservative Party with senior

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figures preparing to come out and campaign to leave. People in Labour

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are preparing to leave. Business leaders, opinion is shifting in

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favour of leaving. It is incredibly exciting. There was a broad-based

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opinion. It is very exciting. Douglas Carswell has mentioned the

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Labour Party as well. If you have big figures like Theresa May all

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backing an EU exit, it is a big blow for the campaign to stay in the EU.

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The Conservative Party will always be split on Europe and Cameron was

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between a rock and a hard place and had to give the MPs his free vote.

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That will give its momentum. I don't expect any big beasts from Labour

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will campaign alongside Douglas in this referendum. When I was a

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Conservative backbench MP I got to know Jeremy Corbyn who was a

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backbencher. I kept on bumping into him in the voting lobby when we

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voted against the consensus of David Cameron Ancona. Will Jeremy Corbyn

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vote to come out? There is an ambivalent relationship between the

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corporatist cartel in Brussels. How can it be that the left in this

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country is putting the interests of bankers ahead of working people in

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Europe? Nobody has said that the EU is a perfect institution which we

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support. We are saying that it is better for British workers to be in

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the EU then out of it because it is through the EU that many of the

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rights we have one for maternity pay and leave, workers' writes, all of

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these right... Is it ambivalent? What you are getting here is a

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preview of the debate on the renegotiation which will take place

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in the months before the referendum but everybody in our country who is

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over the aged abode can listen to the argument -- over the age of

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consent can vote. You are also in favour of the EU staying in the EU.

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There is an assumption that Scotland is overwhelmingly pro-EU. What is

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your evidence that? That is what the polls suggest. The polls are mixed.

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The polls suggest 72% of people want to stay within the EU. We want

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reforms and a better EU but we can do that from the position of being

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in rather than out. You ask whether this was the right decision that

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David Cameron was going to take stock it is the right decision for

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the Tories but not for the country. The premise that is putting his

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party before the country and it is time he showed some leadership in

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this. He seems to have given up the prospect of getting a deal in these

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discussions with his European partners. That is a ridiculous

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position for the Prime Minister to be in before he has even concluded

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his discussions. What do you say? There isn't enough for those who are

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already Euro-sceptic to actually support? I don't agree with Tommy.

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The fact is that the Prime Minister is an extremely good negotiator. His

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political opponents would say that. What are you expecting him to get?

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You have to wait until he concludes his negotiations. I worked closely

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with him for seven and a half years and he is the most Euro-sceptic

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Prime Minister that I have known in my 30 odd years in politics. He will

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get a good deal. The EU is flat on its back. There has never been a

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lesser appetising time for the EU. Look at the EU, Greece, the stagnant

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economy, the euro, he will have to do a deal to get Britain into a

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better place and I believe he will do. He wouldn't campaign to come

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out, would he? I expect him to be successful on the negotiation. It is

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not a secret negotiation, everyone is revealing how it is going and I

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expect him to be successful. You said he's the most Euro-sceptic

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Prime Minister, would there be a situation where he campaigns to come

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out? Let us wait and see the results of the negotiations, I am not

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dealing with hypothetical situations. I expect him to

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negotiate a successful deal. He is an opportunity to renegotiate our

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relationship with Europe but the negotiations are reduced to try and

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say that Polish owners cannot claim benefits, it is pathetic. -- Polish

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plumbers. It has been watered down and watered-down and what we have

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seen is a dilutive version of a agenda which has never been

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seriously considered. -- undiluted. There is not much time left. He

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should be united behind his former colleagues. Let's talk about Douglas

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Carswell and being unified. What is going on with you and Nigel Farage?

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We had a season of goodwill but there has been a spat between the

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two of you, is it resolved? I have made my views clear and I will not

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articulate them again. I was Frank. You want a fresh face? I was asked

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on the strategic direction of Ukip and I have articulated that but this

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is about the EU. Does it help if you have two lead campaigns to start

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with? We interviewed Nigel Farage and he said that you will have to

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put up or shut up. I am involved in the league campaign, and Nigel is

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involved in the other campaign. -- leave. It is sensible for Ukip to be

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backing both forces in a two horse race. Only one campaign will get

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additional designation. Imagine a scenario where the SNP had managed

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to isolate itself on the official independence campaign, of course we

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want to be involved in both campaigns but the electoral

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commission will designate one of them and we want to make sure we are

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working closely with the officially designated campaign. Have you spoken

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to Nigel Farage over Christmas? Not on the phone. What has happened? He

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said that we cannot have one individual to give an impression

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that Ukip is divided when actually it is very united. On the issue of

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the EU referendum, we are united. We do have a common position in wanting

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to leave the EU and we are campaigning with the two campaigns.

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It is bizarre that you and Nigel Farage are in two different

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campaigns. Are you staying within Ukip? Have you had discussions about

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withdrawing? I am 100% Ukip and committed to them. And to Nigel

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Farage? Nigel is doing a great job. We are 17% in the opinion polls but

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I want is to be on 37%. In order to do this... In two years' time, I

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don't want us to be on 70% but on 27%. There are some useful

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suggestions I can make. Are you not going to say anything more? No. Do

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you regret it? I very rarely regret anything. This could be one of them.

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The important thing is that we will have this referendum and I think we

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will win. Have you got anywhere with the

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campaign requiring all four nations must vote to withdraw from the EU if

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that's to pass? Well, we put the argument. Hasn't got anywhere, has

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it? The Government refuses to listen to the argument. The idea of there

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being a... It's rejecting it. Rejecting it out of hand because

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there are many examples where a double majority is required for a

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decision to be taken. The United States of America being in its

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constitutional amendments being the most obvious one. I think the

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problem in not allowing it is that there is a potential major

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constitutional headache on the way if... Why? If Scotland votes in

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large part to stay in the European Union, and England votes with an

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equally large majority to leave, then I think there is going to be a

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lot of anger in Scotland about being dragged out of the EU against the

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will of the people that live in Scotland. Would that propell you

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into campaigning for another referendum? Independence referendum

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It would beg a question to which independence would be one answer but

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it would need a lot of soul-searching if that takes place

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and it will throw up a constitutional crisis. The poll of

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polls put the remain in the EU campaign ten points ahead, as we

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know from the most recent general election, polls polls, relying on

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them, is a risky business. What will you be doing, what will Labour be

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doing to encourage people to vote to remain? Labour's been very clear

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from the outset here that we want to remain part of a reformed EU You are

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going to remain come what may, that's clear? We will do that by

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arguing that being in the EU is better for British workers and

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British families and that we are all better off being active members of

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the EU and playing a part in it. What's your evidence for that? What

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are the figures that you have for saying that families are better off

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within the EU, the British workers? Look at the investment the EU makes

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in the UK, engs in the example, for instance, in Scotland, where the EU

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supports a lot of businesses there. Outside of London and the south-east

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where politics and the media tend to be quite focussed, the EU is

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investing in our regions. We are net contributors, aren't we? There is an

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EU fund that we could be applying to... Your local MP could lobby

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their own Government. I am doing. David Cameron is refusing to engage

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with the EU so that we are not getting all out that we already can.

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You say there is momentum but the poll of polls just for arguments

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sake does put the Recampaign campaign ten points ahead, we

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haven't heard from the renegotiation deal. There is a European-wide

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migration crisis. Terrorism across the continent. You might think leave

:18:57.:18:59.

would be doing better and they're not. I was looking at some polls

:19:00.:19:03.

recently that put the two camps neck-and-neck. We need to be

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sceptical, you are right. Momentum is with Leave. We saw senior

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business figures today, opinion shifting. Many of the undecideds who

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are going to decide the outcome are making thaup their mind and that we

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would be better off out. You are confident David Cameron should get a

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good deal, should he resign if he loses this referendum? Again it's

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entirely hypothetical question. It's not, it's potentially happening in a

:19:32.:19:35.

few months? I expect him to successfully renegotiate Britain's

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position. Should he resign... If he does so successfully I expect him to

:19:40.:19:43.

win. And what Cat said is right, people will decide on the basis of

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their living standards, what's best for their family. But this is going

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to be a tight debate. I think that the two campaigns are neck-and-neck.

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We are going to see the result of negotiations and then everyone makes

:19:57.:19:59.

up their mind. Thank you for telling us that.

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Parliament's expenses watchdog is considering a further crackdown

:20:03.:20:05.

But what is IPSA considering as a replacement for rental

:20:06.:20:09.

Is it a) student-style halls of residence b) house boats

:20:10.:20:16.

on the Thames c) Battersea power station or d) the Hilton on Park

:20:17.:20:19.

Although other hotels are available.

:20:20.:20:23.

of the show our MPs will give us the correct answer!

:20:24.:20:30.

We are saying goodbye to you at this stage. Lovely to be here.

:20:31.:20:36.

It's the reshuffle that seems to have gone on for rather a long

:20:37.:20:39.

But this lunchtime we'll finally be getting details

:20:40.:20:42.

of who is in and who is out of Jeremy Corbyn's new look Shadow

:20:43.:20:46.

Let's talk now to a man who knows what's going on,

:20:47.:20:49.

the BBC's Assistant Editor, Norman Smith.

:20:50.:20:51.

You are laughing, I am not filled with confidence! This has been the

:20:52.:20:55.

longest reshuffle in history with not that much going on. Is Jeremy

:20:56.:21:00.

Corbyn talking to every member of the Labour Party before he moves

:21:01.:21:05.

anyone? I was laughing because you suggested we might have some details

:21:06.:21:10.

by lunchtime. I doubt it because we now discover that the Shadow Cabinet

:21:11.:21:13.

meeting scheduled for quarter to one has been cancelled. Why? Because

:21:14.:21:18.

Jeremy Corbyn does not have a new Shadow Cabinet so that meeting will

:21:19.:21:22.

take place we do not know when, sometime later this afternoon. This

:21:23.:21:26.

is a reshuffle which has now been going on for more than 24 hours, so

:21:27.:21:31.

far only one person has been ousted, that's the Shadow Culture Secretary

:21:32.:21:37.

Michael Dugher. In a way not surprising because he has been a

:21:38.:21:41.

public critic of Jeremy Corbyn. What is surprising is the response to his

:21:42.:21:45.

sacking because a whole series of senior Shadow Cabinet ministers have

:21:46.:21:51.

issued statements backing Michael Dugher saying what a terrific member

:21:52.:21:55.

of the Cabinet he is, how he manages to reach out to northern

:21:56.:21:58.

working-class voters, what a loss he will be to the Shadow Cabinet and

:21:59.:22:01.

that from figures like Andy Burnham, Tom Watson, some of the big beasts

:22:02.:22:07.

in the Shadow Cabinet. My sense is where we are now, Jeremy Corbyn

:22:08.:22:10.

finds himself hemmed in. He can't do what he wants to do, which is move

:22:11.:22:14.

Hilary Benn and move Maria Eagle because he knows if he does that he

:22:15.:22:19.

faces a Shadow Cabinet revolt and resignations. Where we are heading,

:22:20.:22:25.

eventually, I think, is towards not a revenge reshuffle, but potentially

:22:26.:22:29.

a damp squib reshuffle. In the end Jeremy Corbyn realised he didn't

:22:30.:22:32.

have the power or strength to do what he wanted to do, in your mind?

:22:33.:22:39.

Yeah, I think he will present it as underlining how he is willing to

:22:40.:22:43.

listen to different voices, he is not going to carry out some ruthless

:22:44.:22:47.

sort of purge. The reality, I think, is this, there are people around him

:22:48.:22:51.

who want him to seize this moment in the wake of the Oldham by-election,

:22:52.:22:55.

in the wake even of the Syria vote when something like 70% of the party

:22:56.:22:59.

backed him, they want him to seize this moment and they think he lacks

:23:00.:23:03.

the steel, the ruthlessness to get rid of some of his dissidents and

:23:04.:23:08.

critics in the Shadow Cabinet. He, however - he likes to discuss

:23:09.:23:11.

things. He likes to talk things through. He likes to reach consensus

:23:12.:23:17.

and I think by inclination he does not want to be in the position of

:23:18.:23:21.

having to shove people out the door, never mind the threat of

:23:22.:23:25.

resignations which there almost certainly would be and a clear

:23:26.:23:28.

warning from the Chief Whip that if he did that the Shadow Cabinet would

:23:29.:23:32.

implode because there would be a London of -- a load of Ministers who

:23:33.:23:37.

would say right, we are out of here. We will leave you there for what may

:23:38.:23:39.

turn out to be a long afternoon! And with us now former

:23:40.:23:43.

Shadow Chancellor, Chris Leslie. Welcome back. Would you describe

:23:44.:23:50.

this as a revenge reshuffle or a purge? Michael Dugher said it would

:23:51.:23:55.

be wrong to have a revenge reshuffle and look what's happened to him, I

:23:56.:23:59.

am not sure why he has been reshuffled, what exactly his sin

:24:00.:24:03.

was. I think he was very effective in opposing the Government and

:24:04.:24:06.

opposing the Conservatives. I don't think removing him makes Labour's

:24:07.:24:10.

chances of winning any greater. I am afraid that there is a sort of

:24:11.:24:15.

natural impetus amongst the hard-left who want to tighten their

:24:16.:24:20.

control, they want to sideline moderate voices when they have the

:24:21.:24:24.

chance to do so. It looks as though it might be more incremental. We

:24:25.:24:28.

don't know the time-scale of this particular reshuffle. I don't think

:24:29.:24:30.

anybody should be surprised about that is the nature of the hard-left.

:24:31.:24:34.

You built this up. You and some of your, as you describe them moderate

:24:35.:24:38.

colleagues, have obviously been briefing about this revenge

:24:39.:24:40.

reshuffle, this purge that you feared. It's not happening. We don't

:24:41.:24:45.

know because the reshuffle is going on and on. Obscuring a lot of very

:24:46.:24:49.

good campaigning that people were doing on rail fares, the housing

:24:50.:24:54.

bill in the House of Commons. The Government has tried to hide beneath

:24:55.:24:58.

this news of the reshuffle, a major change on European referendum

:24:59.:25:02.

policy. What we should be doing, of course, is appealing to the wider

:25:03.:25:06.

public and listening to what the public's views are. This is all

:25:07.:25:10.

before we even get to some of the economic and fiscal issues where

:25:11.:25:14.

according to a poll yesterday only 18% of the public, apparently, have

:25:15.:25:17.

confidence in the current front bench view when it comes to the

:25:18.:25:22.

economy. What was wrong with Michael Dugher I think Jeremy Corbyn as

:25:23.:25:25.

leader of the Labour Party is within his rights to pick the people that

:25:26.:25:28.

he wants to serve in his Shadow Cabinet. If he doesn't want people

:25:29.:25:33.

in the Shadow Cabinet who spend more time attacking the Labour Party

:25:34.:25:35.

leadership than the Tory benches opposite us, he is perfectly within

:25:36.:25:41.

his rights to do that. I think Jeremy is -- Jeremy is in a wrong

:25:42.:25:48.

position, we ended 2015 on a strong note, we pshed back on credits and

:25:49.:25:52.

police cuts and he is trying to realign the top team to match more

:25:53.:25:57.

what the PLP is and the party. I think the current Shadow Cabinet,

:25:58.:26:01.

frankly, is to the right of where the PLP is. If you look for instance

:26:02.:26:07.

on the vote on Syria, more Labour MPs voted with Jeremy Corbyn than

:26:08.:26:12.

with Hilary Benn. You would expect him to move Hilary Benn You just

:26:13.:26:19.

said you wanted him to realign. If he was realigning he would move

:26:20.:26:23.

Hilary Benn because he holds a contradictory position on air

:26:24.:26:27.

strikes. He would be moving Maria Eagle from Shadow defence because

:26:28.:26:31.

she doesn't agree with the view on Trident, so he has bottled it The

:26:32.:26:35.

reshuffle hasn't finished yet. Would you be disappointed if that doesn't

:26:36.:26:38.

happen I won't be disappointed with anything that comes out of this

:26:39.:26:43.

reshuffle. It's a minor change, it's not a full reshuffle. It's not

:26:44.:26:47.

all-out. I regret the fact you have said what you said about Michael

:26:48.:26:54.

Dugher and saying he was attacking more time on the - he is an

:26:55.:26:59.

effective communicators when it comes to an effective fighting force

:27:00.:27:01.

against appalling right-wing changes. I hope he continues to do

:27:02.:27:05.

that from the back benches. I don't think it was right to have

:27:06.:27:09.

characterised Michael in that way. His sin, I think, was to dare to

:27:10.:27:14.

have different views and we know that the hard-left famously cannot

:27:15.:27:20.

tolerate any dissident. Who are the hart-left, Chris Is it Cat? A lot of

:27:21.:27:26.

people are in the ascendency within the Labour Party who associate with

:27:27.:27:31.

the hard-left. I am a Labour MP, I am proud to be Labour and I am

:27:32.:27:35.

assuming you feel the same. I got elected as a Labour MP. You said we

:27:36.:27:40.

were too right-wing. Not to fight internally. It's right that Jeremy

:27:41.:27:43.

Corbyn has a team around him he trusts. Absolutely. He can't be an

:27:44.:27:51.

effective leader... He didn't trust Michael Dugher? He is either having

:27:52.:27:58.

a realignment or not. To put to you, Michael Dugher did describe momentum

:27:59.:28:01.

as stupid and that's the grass roots organisation, not just of Labour

:28:02.:28:04.

Party members but others. Is that the sort of language that will help

:28:05.:28:08.

this integration to stop this in-fighting within Labour? We all

:28:09.:28:12.

care about Labour winning in the future and if we end up with a

:28:13.:28:17.

hard-left agenda, whether it's printing money, whether it's

:28:18.:28:19.

nationalisation without compensation, whatever it happens to

:28:20.:28:22.

be, the public will take a view on that and I don't know what you think

:28:23.:28:29.

about the opinion poll that put Labour at 18% of trust. They'll have

:28:30.:28:34.

to take a pinch of salt after the last general election. A lot of

:28:35.:28:38.

people are in marginal seats, yourself included, we have to start

:28:39.:28:42.

not just listening to those who feel strongly about a hard-left wing

:28:43.:28:45.

position but want to listen to the wider public. If we see people like

:28:46.:28:50.

Maria Eagle, for example, being sidelined because she cares about a

:28:51.:28:53.

strong defence for our country, I think that would be massively

:28:54.:28:56.

regrettable. I hope it doesn't happen. We will see how this pans

:28:57.:29:01.

out. This is what the Labour Party has become, this in-fighting with

:29:02.:29:04.

two different factions when there are issues that people are worried

:29:05.:29:08.

about, whether it's the economy, whether it's flooding, whether it is

:29:09.:29:12.

air strikes in Syria and this is all we have had from the Labour Party.

:29:13.:29:17.

As a party, we will have debate within, there is no Labour MP I

:29:18.:29:21.

agree with 100%. There is the same for Chris, as well. We are a

:29:22.:29:25.

coalition of people who come together around the values that the

:29:26.:29:29.

country... You are not coming together, are you? Internally we

:29:30.:29:36.

will S have these discussions. Do you think Jeremy Corbyn is going to

:29:37.:29:40.

lead Labour to victory in 2020? It's so far away. I worry that the way we

:29:41.:29:45.

are going is moving away from electability, I hope that we can

:29:46.:29:49.

wake up and realise the public looking at this, they want to hear

:29:50.:29:53.

about campaigning on flooding, what's happening on housing bill,

:29:54.:29:57.

the European referendum, but all they see is a sort of narrowing

:29:58.:30:03.

view, the sort of disdainful hard-left focussing inWardley,

:30:04.:30:06.

rather than engaging with the wider public on things they care about.

:30:07.:30:09.

That's my anxiety. What do you say to that I would say that this week

:30:10.:30:13.

we have been campaigning on the railways. Nobody's heard it. We have

:30:14.:30:16.

and I have been doing it and you have been doing it. Where have the

:30:17.:30:20.

public not heard of it We moved our policy position to something that's

:30:21.:30:24.

closer to where the public are than what we had previously. If you ask

:30:25.:30:29.

the public they would like to see railways back in public ownership,

:30:30.:30:31.

is that hard-left? What do you say when you view this

:30:32.:30:39.

going on? You have experience with the Labour Party. In one sense, this

:30:40.:30:46.

debate is less relevant because the Labour Party has been replaced by

:30:47.:30:54.

the centre-left party, the SNP. I do think the people of England need a

:30:55.:31:00.

centre-left alternative. Who represents that? It is sad that is

:31:01.:31:03.

not there at the moment. Two things need to happen. All of us have

:31:04.:31:06.

witnessed in the House of Commons the most amazing infighting going on

:31:07.:31:13.

within the Labour benches and as an observer it seems to be a tax on the

:31:14.:31:17.

current leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, rather than attacks from Jeremy

:31:18.:31:27.

Corbyn. The people on Chris's wing of the party needs to recognise and

:31:28.:31:30.

respect that Jeremy Corbyn has a mandate to be leader but Jeremy

:31:31.:31:34.

Corbyn also need to show some leadership. There has been a lot of

:31:35.:31:40.

pussyfooting around, indecision, not whipping decisions, not seeking

:31:41.:31:44.

backing on certain things, that needs to stop and he needs to start

:31:45.:31:49.

acting like a leader and get respect from all wings of the party to be

:31:50.:31:57.

able to do it. Do you think you will get it? I do not have the patience

:31:58.:32:01.

of some of those who have stuck it out in the Shadow Cabinet. It is not

:32:02.:32:05.

right to sit by and see good colleagues being sacked. Michael was

:32:06.:32:10.

the only one we know about so far. They are good colleagues who care

:32:11.:32:14.

about Labour winning and campaigning, and have been

:32:15.:32:18.

disparaged as somehow wanting to attack Labour its self, rather than

:32:19.:32:24.

fighting to win a general election. What are you going to do about it? I

:32:25.:32:30.

think it is important that those of us who do believe in a moderate

:32:31.:32:33.

centre-left Labour Party fight strongly for that and I am vocal for

:32:34.:32:39.

that. At this stage, the hard left needs to be prepared for that. How

:32:40.:32:44.

we going to fight for that? Let's see how the reshuffle goes stop are

:32:45.:32:50.

you going to challenge Jeremy Corbyn and the hard left? Wants to focus on

:32:51.:32:54.

getting the Labour Party into tip top shape and appealing to the

:32:55.:33:01.

general public. Andrew Mitchell? May I make two points? Firstly, any

:33:02.:33:07.

party that is seriously considering replacing somebody of the character

:33:08.:33:12.

and quality of Hilary Benn is not in a good place, particularly given

:33:13.:33:16.

some of the names suggested stop he does not agree with the leader. In

:33:17.:33:21.

the end, Jeremy Corbyn has to take position of his party or he will be

:33:22.:33:25.

buffeted around on the waves and that is why I have some sympathy

:33:26.:33:35.

with Cat. Thank you for the advice. Thank you.

:33:36.:33:38.

Now, 2016 could be a humdinger of a political year.

:33:39.:33:41.

Are the bookies hoping for a bumper crop of bets?

:33:42.:33:43.

Earlier, I spoke to Alex Donnahue from Ladbrokes.

:33:44.:33:46.

I began by asking him if the odds on the EU referendum were still very

:33:47.:33:50.

close between the leave and remain camps?

:33:51.:33:52.

If the referendum does take place this year,

:33:53.:33:59.

we say it is the even money favourite that the UK votes to stay,

:34:00.:34:02.

If the referendum does happen this year, those are the odds,

:34:03.:34:07.

and we say it is a 50-50 chance that we will stay put

:34:08.:34:10.

The bets to leave are the ones that are definitely shortening.

:34:11.:34:16.

Those odds are around 3/1 this time last year.

:34:17.:34:18.

Those odds are coming in all the time.

:34:19.:34:20.

My prediction would be that as soon as we get an announcement

:34:21.:34:23.

of the year or date those odds will get shorter still.

:34:24.:34:26.

Let's have a look at the mayoral election also this year.

:34:27.:34:28.

Labour have got Sadiq Khan, there are other candidates of course

:34:29.:34:33.

but how does it look between those two?

:34:34.:34:34.

That is another one where we make pretty much a coin toss

:34:35.:34:37.

although Sadiq Khan is the odds-on favourite at 8/11.

:34:38.:34:39.

Zac Goldsmith just behind at 11/10 , so we are saying that Sadiq Khan

:34:40.:34:43.

is the narrow but odds-on favourite to become the Mayor

:34:44.:34:45.

What about the future of the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn?

:34:46.:34:49.

There had been plenty of speculation that he might be replaced before

:34:50.:34:52.

2020, how was it looking from your side?

:34:53.:34:53.

I should say that he is odds-on to actually survive until 2020.

:34:54.:34:56.

Those who think there will be a reshuffle this year

:34:57.:35:00.

A controversial figure in the USA, what are the odds on him or anybody

:35:01.:35:05.

He is the second favourite to become the next president at 4/1.

:35:06.:35:09.

Those odds were really long not so long ago, 100/1, 200/1.

:35:10.:35:12.

I should add that he is even shorter at 2/1 to visit the UK this year.

:35:13.:35:16.

I'm not sure too many people would be pleased to see that

:35:17.:35:19.

but as far as the other candidates are concerned,

:35:20.:35:21.

Hillary Clinton, odds-on favourite 4/6, and for the Republicans,

:35:22.:35:23.

Marco Rubio, 11/2, Ted Cruz, 8/1 and Bernie Sanders at 16/1

:35:24.:35:26.

if he does get the Democratic nomination.

:35:27.:35:28.

Let's come closer to home and talk about the local elections coming

:35:29.:35:31.

What are the chances of Ukip winning seats in Wales?

:35:32.:35:35.

We think they have a decent chance of picking up a handful of seats

:35:36.:35:38.

in Wales, maybe eight or maybe nine, but to get ten, that is 3/1.

:35:39.:35:42.

And the Scottish Nationalist Party, they did extremely

:35:43.:35:44.

What about this year's Holyrood elections?

:35:45.:35:49.

They did indeed and a clean sweep is 7/2.

:35:50.:35:53.

Let's talk to the Guardian's Polly Toynbee and Sam Coates

:35:54.:35:56.

Happy New Year to both of you. Looking good. Sam, who is going to

:35:57.:36:09.

fare best in the May elections? I think London will be the biggest

:36:10.:36:15.

thing, the Westminster bubble. At the moment, it feels like Siddique

:36:16.:36:19.

Khan is narrowly ahead. We had interviews with both Zac Goldsmith

:36:20.:36:25.

and Siddique Khan and Zac Goldsmith put in a curiously poor performance

:36:26.:36:29.

on the radio this morning, sanding unsure of himself on delicate

:36:30.:36:32.

allegations against Sadiq Khan. He has been around a while and it feels

:36:33.:36:40.

like he is likely in front. The Zac Goldsmith campaign backed by his

:36:41.:36:44.

company, they are going to throw everything at this. It is close but

:36:45.:36:47.

it feels like Labour are in with a chance. However, that might not be

:36:48.:36:52.

altogether good news for the wider Labour Party if it means Jeremy

:36:53.:36:55.

Corbyn can claim a win and thereby solidify his position as Labour

:36:56.:37:02.

leader because many will look at the elections and whether or not Labour

:37:03.:37:05.

is dragged down by its current leader or whether in fact that's he

:37:06.:37:14.

is an electoral liability. Holly, how do you see it in terms of the

:37:15.:37:20.

key elections? Is it true that if Khan winds for Labour then that will

:37:21.:37:27.

just lend power to Jeremy Corbyn? It looks like Khan will win. Labour is

:37:28.:37:31.

extraordinarily strong in London, getting stronger all the time.

:37:32.:37:35.

London is almost the Labour heartland. Khan, the son of a bus

:37:36.:37:41.

driver coming he is Mr London. His experience as a politician will

:37:42.:37:49.

show. Zac Goldsmith is a newcomer, a beginner, not terribly good at it.

:37:50.:37:55.

Will it affect the views of Jeremy Corbyn? I don't think Khan will be

:37:56.:37:59.

dragged down by Jeremy Corbyn's lack of popularity and I don't dig it

:38:00.:38:03.

will show that Jeremy Corbyn is a great success. Labour can win all

:38:04.:38:08.

kinds of elections, locally around country. Unaffected for good or bad

:38:09.:38:17.

by Jeremy Corbyn. The Conservative leadership contest. Now we know that

:38:18.:38:23.

David Cameron is not going to stand again, and depending on what happens

:38:24.:38:27.

with the EU referendum which could be as early as June, it would be

:38:28.:38:32.

surprising if there was not already some pretty clear jostling for

:38:33.:38:38.

position other than what we know. Yes, the preplanning for this has

:38:39.:38:41.

begun in earnest and there are conversations about it. The Times

:38:42.:38:47.

had a big hole about this last week and we found it is pretty much neck

:38:48.:38:54.

and neck among Tory voters. -- poll. What was interesting was what was

:38:55.:39:00.

going on with the wider public which showed Boris Johnson comfortably out

:39:01.:39:04.

in front, Theresa May in second and George Osborne in third. The numbers

:39:05.:39:10.

suggest that while Boris Johnson is the Heineken politician, George

:39:11.:39:16.

Osborne is whatever the opposite of that is not a dry white wine

:39:17.:39:20.

politician! Doesn't translate very well among Labour voters or Ukip

:39:21.:39:26.

voters or Lib Dem voters, so really his popularity is in that narrow

:39:27.:39:30.

Tory Brecon and that might be enough to get across the line but it might

:39:31.:39:34.

also worry conservatives that he does not have that appeal despite

:39:35.:39:39.

months and months of presenting himself as a man of the working

:39:40.:39:43.

people, the man of the Northern Powerhouse, that is not shifted the

:39:44.:39:47.

public attitudes towards him. He has a bit of time but people have

:39:48.:39:53.

already made up their minds. What is the opposite of a Heineken

:39:54.:39:59.

politician? Give us analogy on that. George Osborne's chancers will hinge

:40:00.:40:04.

on the economy performance. We have two remember that the most important

:40:05.:40:08.

being to happen in Britain for a long time is the EU referendum. --

:40:09.:40:13.

chances. It decides the fate of this nation for ever and it could be

:40:14.:40:16.

catastrophic if we pull out stop if George Osborne put his shoulder to

:40:17.:40:23.

the wheel and failed or only just scraped past in getting Britain to

:40:24.:40:26.

remain then I think he will look quite weak. If on the other hand

:40:27.:40:34.

Caroline Osborne got 65% and put it to bed for ever to end the ludicrous

:40:35.:40:41.

rift in the Tory party, sending the other side away with their tail

:40:42.:40:47.

between their legs, then I think he is in a strong position. A lot of it

:40:48.:40:50.

depends on winning this most important battle, far more important

:40:51.:40:55.

than any internal warfare is in either party. Finally, there is talk

:40:56.:41:02.

about Scotland. The SNP could do even better this time round than

:41:03.:41:06.

last time. It does feel like they are in a commanding position and the

:41:07.:41:12.

big danger for Scotland is the Labour Party. People are talking

:41:13.:41:14.

down here about the need for Labour to make progress in the May

:41:15.:41:18.

elections and showing that the beginning to claw back some of the

:41:19.:41:21.

territory from the in Scotland but there is no sign that is working.

:41:22.:41:25.

Nicola Sturgeon appears like a Teflon politician and if you see

:41:26.:41:30.

Labour facing another catastrophic defeat in May then the chances are

:41:31.:41:36.

that the moderate politicians will also fall by the wayside, and then I

:41:37.:41:42.

think one of Jeremy Corbyn's analyses will come in and take her

:41:43.:41:45.

place, meaning that the Scottish Labour Party is pretty much a Jeremy

:41:46.:41:54.

Corbyn entity. We saw some polls that they would narrowly votes for

:41:55.:41:58.

Jeremy Corbyn if there was an election immediately and the SNP is

:41:59.:42:06.

now behind the leader if Labour does catastrophically in May. What

:42:07.:42:14.

evidence is there of any recovery by Labour in Scotland? We make no bones

:42:15.:42:17.

about it, it will be a challenging collection for Labour in Scotland

:42:18.:42:21.

and we have a long way to come back from the general election defeat

:42:22.:42:24.

where we were almost wiped out by the SNP. Nothing has changed? We

:42:25.:42:30.

have to give it time and we earn the trust of voters in Scotland, and

:42:31.:42:33.

that will not happen overnight stop I will be out in Scotland,

:42:34.:42:39.

campaigning, knocking on doors, with my party and it will be a slog. We

:42:40.:42:44.

can come back but it will take time. Is cosier the right leader? She is a

:42:45.:42:49.

fantastic leader of the SNP. I am happy to do forcer -- I am happy to

:42:50.:43:00.

support. -- Kezia. Should there be a bar? It is going to be challenging

:43:01.:43:03.

and as I am not Scottish myself I will not set any bars. In a way,

:43:04.:43:12.

will and SNP victory be equal to or better to last time round then give

:43:13.:43:18.

you a mandate? We probably won't be seeking a referendum on independence

:43:19.:43:22.

in the election, that is not part of the manifesto. Would it

:43:23.:43:27.

kick-start... One thing we will see in our

:43:28.:43:29.

kick-start... One thing we will see powers and authority coming north of

:43:30.:43:34.

the border and the Scottish Government having more control to

:43:35.:43:37.

shape the lives of people in Scotland. In that sense, there is

:43:38.:43:42.

unfinished business from the last referendum, and it will be for the

:43:43.:43:46.

government to decide how it responds to the wishes of the people in the

:43:47.:43:52.

SNP does get the majority. We do intend to fight for every single

:43:53.:43:56.

vote, we take nothing for granted in this election. What has the SNP

:43:57.:44:02.

achieved so far at Westminster? We provided a strong voice for

:44:03.:44:06.

Scotland's... What has been achieved, policy? The SNP won the

:44:07.:44:16.

election in 56 out of 65 seat in May but we did not foresee the type of

:44:17.:44:19.

government that we have seen in England. In those circumstances, it

:44:20.:44:25.

is difficult to actually achieve things but there are certainly many

:44:26.:44:29.

aspects in which our resistance with others has been part of the process

:44:30.:44:32.

of making the government run away from debates, whether that be the

:44:33.:44:37.

Human Rights Act, the timing of the EU referendum or the tax credit

:44:38.:44:41.

issue. The independence referendum, Nicola Sturgeon kick-started the SNP

:44:42.:44:48.

election bid and said the SNP has a special responsibility to lead a

:44:49.:44:50.

renewed debate about independence, do you agree? Would be a platform

:44:51.:44:54.

for another Scotland is now much more relaxed

:44:55.:45:04.

after the referendum as a country. It's heading on a journey which I

:45:05.:45:06.

think will lead to independented pence. One of the interesting...

:45:07.:45:10.

When? One of the interesting opinion poll questions is if you ask people

:45:11.:45:13.

do they think they'll see independence in their lifetime and a

:45:14.:45:18.

clear majority, 60%-plus, of people say yes to that question. It's now

:45:19.:45:22.

seen as a natural state of affairs, rather than a far off distapt dream.

:45:23.:45:28.

Is it a natural state of affairs, people might say now seize the

:45:29.:45:31.

opportunity, the SNP may never as popular as now in Scotland, why

:45:32.:45:35.

wouldn't you go for it? It's not even been 18 months since we had a

:45:36.:45:38.

thorough referendum and thorough examination of this question and we

:45:39.:45:41.

respected the decision that was taken. Although we would point out

:45:42.:45:46.

that one of the reasons why a lot of people voted against independence is

:45:47.:45:48.

because they were made promise that is have not been kept. It's part of

:45:49.:45:52.

our job to try and make sure those promises are kept and to advance the

:45:53.:45:56.

cause of independence And perhaps use powers you already have at your

:45:57.:46:00.

disposal? Yes and to get more powers we can do more. There hasn't been a

:46:01.:46:05.

demonstration of what you have done with the powers so far. If you ask

:46:06.:46:10.

people who don't have to pay tuition fees, or people who are sick don't

:46:11.:46:15.

have to pay for medicine... Delays on the Forth Bridge, are thee things

:46:16.:46:20.

you have achieved? Which one will I talk about? Let's start with

:46:21.:46:24.

admissions. The health service in Scotland, we obviously need to do

:46:25.:46:28.

more and there is room for improvement we are achieving the 95%

:46:29.:46:32.

target on waiting times... That wasn't the target you set. 95% was

:46:33.:46:40.

the target. I thought it was 98%. The target was 95% and that's being

:46:41.:46:45.

achieved. What about delays to the Forth Road Bridge, closed for weeks

:46:46.:46:49.

and the budget cut. The reason it was closed was not to do with that.

:46:50.:46:53.

Labour tried to make a point on that and had to retract quickly on it.

:46:54.:46:57.

The bridge is an old structure, 50 years old this year. It's coming to

:46:58.:47:00.

the end of its life. These are things you have power to do

:47:01.:47:03.

something about. The Scottish Government took a safety first

:47:04.:47:08.

attitude, we closed the bridge. Put be public safety first and we were

:47:09.:47:12.

able to get it open ahead of schedule. It was delayed and

:47:13.:47:17.

suddenly it was announced it would be early. The ferry crossing is

:47:18.:47:23.

under budget and ahead of schedule in construction. Has flood defence

:47:24.:47:27.

been reduced? Not as much as England and Wales It's been reduced and

:47:28.:47:30.

communities in Scotland have had the most dreadful time over Christmas

:47:31.:47:33.

and new year, was that a wise decision? There are warnings that

:47:34.:47:38.

rivers are still rising in Aberdeenshire tonight. We need to

:47:39.:47:42.

look and see if there is enough being put in to flood defence. There

:47:43.:47:47.

is a cut of 6% in the budget. However, George Osborne is planning

:47:48.:47:51.

a cut of 30%. These are things that you have the powers to do something

:47:52.:47:56.

about. We don't set the overall Scottish budget, that's set by

:47:57.:48:01.

George Osborne. Tldz but there are things you can do. I am trying to go

:48:02.:48:06.

through some issues. Free education, free medicine. In terms of the next

:48:07.:48:09.

Conservative leader, the starting gun has been fired, there are going

:48:10.:48:14.

to be members of the Cabinet to campaign on the referendum. Who

:48:15.:48:17.

would you put your money on? There are two outstanding candidates, one

:48:18.:48:20.

is George Osborne and the other is Boris Johnson. Who is your favourite

:48:21.:48:26.

Both have tremendous qualities. The Labour Party can only dream of

:48:27.:48:28.

having two candidates of that sort of calibre. Only one can be the next

:48:29.:48:37.

leader. The point that your intelligent and clever journalists

:48:38.:48:39.

were making about the leadership election was not taking sufficient

:48:40.:48:43.

account of the fact that the parliamentary party decide on the

:48:44.:48:47.

last two and of course within parliament George Osborne is very,

:48:48.:48:50.

very dominant. He is almost certain to get on to the ballot paper. The

:48:51.:48:54.

question is who else will get on to the ballot paper with him and the

:48:55.:48:58.

public, members of the Conservative Party will choose between those two.

:48:59.:49:02.

That's a factor which I don't think Sam sufficiently put into his

:49:03.:49:06.

calculations. Who would you like to be the next leader It's too early to

:49:07.:49:10.

say. Both are strong, appealing candidates, not just within the

:49:11.:49:12.

Conservative Party but widely across the country. Do you think it was a

:49:13.:49:16.

mistake by David Cameron to announce he wasn't going to stand next time.

:49:17.:49:19.

That's what everything will be about, post the referendum, whatever

:49:20.:49:23.

the result No, it was an extremely clever to do. It avoids the terrible

:49:24.:49:28.

problems that Tony Blair had within his parliamentary party. Making it

:49:29.:49:31.

clear means he owes no one anything. He can reshuffle as he sees fit and

:49:32.:49:36.

everyone knows when he is going. No one is agitating to get rid of him.

:49:37.:49:40.

That may change after the EU referendum depending on what

:49:41.:49:42.

happens. In terms... I don't think it will actually. He said when he is

:49:43.:49:47.

going to go, by the end of this parliament. The Tory Party owes

:49:48.:49:51.

David Cameron a huge debt. Can he really stay on and serve a full

:49:52.:49:56.

term? Surely whatever happens with the EU referendum once that result

:49:57.:49:59.

is clear there will be a case for him to step down before. That's a

:50:00.:50:03.

matter for him and no one in the Conservative Party really believes

:50:04.:50:09.

it's a matter for anyone else. How worried about the economy, slowing

:50:10.:50:12.

down in terms of growth and impact here That's the central issue in

:50:13.:50:16.

this parliament, it's whether we can sustain the British economy doing

:50:17.:50:20.

better than other European economies, creating an extraordinary

:50:21.:50:24.

number of new jobs, really boosting and lifting living standards,

:50:25.:50:26.

getting young people into work. Those are the real issues which

:50:27.:50:30.

people want to see us deliver on and that's our challenge. Thank you.

:50:31.:50:34.

More than half a million Brits have signed a petition demanding

:50:35.:50:36.

Donald Trump be banned from entering the UK.

:50:37.:50:41.

Later today the Parliamentary Peitions Committee meets

:50:42.:50:45.

and will decide whether or not parliament should debate just that.

:50:46.:50:50.

Welcome to the first moodbox of 2016.

:50:51.:50:56.

Now a few weeks ago a certain US presidential hopeful said he thought

:50:57.:50:59.

all Muslims should be barred from entering the USA.

:51:00.:51:02.

A subsequent petition here said he should be barred

:51:03.:51:04.

So what better place to ask people than here?

:51:05.:51:08.

Should Donald Trump be allowed in or kept out of Britain?

:51:09.:51:12.

What he said is wrong, we don't have to listen to it,

:51:13.:51:18.

but if we start blocking him then we'll be doing what he is doing

:51:19.:51:22.

saying Muslims aren't allowed in the United States.

:51:23.:51:24.

No, I don't know some of the statements he's making quite

:51:25.:51:30.

fit the inclusive culture we would like to showcase

:51:31.:51:32.

Celebrity personality on politics is something we should probably

:51:33.:51:36.

Should we let him into the UK or not?

:51:37.:51:41.

Well, unlike Donald Trump this street is pretty quiet so I think

:51:42.:51:52.

we need to take the moodbox somewhere a bit busier.

:51:53.:51:57.

# Nellie the elephant packed her trunk and said goodbye

:51:58.:51:59.

# Off she went with a trumpety trump.

:52:00.:52:03.

There is a few little crazies already in the UK, aren't there?

:52:04.:52:10.

Yeah, but we don't want another one here really.

:52:11.:52:12.

Nothing wrong with a bit of inflammatory now and again

:52:13.:52:19.

# Off she went with a trumpety trump.

:52:20.:52:22.

Screw Donald Trump, he is an abomination to America.

:52:23.:52:30.

I think he speaks what a lot of people won't speak.

:52:31.:52:38.

And, yes, I do actually feel he should be allowed in the country.

:52:39.:52:41.

We let a lot of other people in and we never track them.

:52:42.:52:53.

He is a bit of a toe-rag, to be honest.

:52:54.:52:58.

A toe-rag, no one else has called him a toe-rag.

:52:59.:53:00.

He is such an idiot, let's have a go at him.

:53:01.:53:08.

The last time I checked around 550,000 people had signed

:53:09.:53:10.

the petition saying that Donald Trump should not be

:53:11.:53:13.

But then another 40,000 people signed a petition against that

:53:14.:53:17.

petition saying he should be allowed in.

:53:18.:53:19.

We didn't have anywhere near that many people for the moodbox

:53:20.:53:22.

but there was an overwhelming majority that said Donald Trump

:53:23.:53:25.

And we're joined now by the writer and broadcaster,

:53:26.:53:41.

and Republican supporter, Charlie Wolf.

:53:42.:53:43.

With that many on the petition shouldn't parliament discuss it? I

:53:44.:53:47.

think it's already been discussed. We made statements. Listening to the

:53:48.:53:51.

programme today and all the issues you were discussing, the floods,

:53:52.:53:56.

Isil, Labour Party reshuffle, if it's happening or not happening, do

:53:57.:54:00.

we really want to spend a morning discussing Donald Trump? It only

:54:01.:54:04.

actually is what he would love. He thrives on publicity. A matter of

:54:05.:54:08.

fact, if he has any problem, I don't know if it's number one or not, if

:54:09.:54:11.

he is not number one he will think you are all stupid. As Donald Trump

:54:12.:54:15.

would say. It's been done. What are you going to say that hasn't been

:54:16.:54:21.

said? Let's ask them. Are you in favour of a debate on this? ? I am

:54:22.:54:25.

more than happy to debate it in parliament, I hope the committee

:54:26.:54:28.

allow us that opportunity. What would you say? We should have the

:54:29.:54:32.

debate with him. He should come or shouldn't be barred We should show

:54:33.:54:36.

him exactly how London is and it's not a place he believes it to be and

:54:37.:54:40.

that communities live alongside each other and rub along fine. Should he

:54:41.:54:44.

be allowed? ? I would probably say no. I don't think he should be

:54:45.:54:50.

welcome here. Why not? Given statements about saying against

:54:51.:54:53.

Muslims, for example, I think it's offensive to a large number of

:54:54.:54:56.

British people. I don't think he should be allowed here. He could be

:54:57.:55:01.

the next US President. When this guy is possibly elected and he is banned

:55:02.:55:06.

from the country, you know, our closest ally? We will cross that

:55:07.:55:09.

bridge when we come to it. Let's hope for the sanity of the world

:55:10.:55:13.

that he is not elected. I hope the American people come to their senses

:55:14.:55:18.

on that one and see through Trump. He is a nasty man peddling awful

:55:19.:55:24.

ideas which are set to divide people and don't get to the heart of real

:55:25.:55:28.

problems we face. Should that not be a question for debating with him

:55:29.:55:33.

rather than barring him there are lots of other nasty people that we

:55:34.:55:38.

do let into the UK? I am in favour of talking to people with whom we

:55:39.:55:41.

don't agree. I think it's extremely important. On this issue I wouldn't

:55:42.:55:46.

ban him. I think he should be brought here for education. I rather

:55:47.:55:52.

agree with what Cat said. Let him come here and see for himself that

:55:53.:55:56.

what he was saying in the United States is complete rubbish. Can you

:55:57.:56:00.

really class Donald Trump with religious extremists and war crim

:56:01.:56:04.

naps? He is not the worst but I think he is certainly an extremist

:56:05.:56:08.

-- criminals. His views are extremely offensive to many people

:56:09.:56:12.

who are living here and they do nothing to try and achieve the type

:56:13.:56:18.

of dialogue we need to achieve, particularly with Islam Nordtveit to

:56:19.:56:23.

achieve world ksh - in order to achieve world peace. You were happy

:56:24.:56:28.

to have the money invested in Scotland by Donald Trump? He invests

:56:29.:56:31.

for his own benefit rather than anyone else. Scotland has

:56:32.:56:35.

benefitted. A golf course and he has bought a hotel. They would be there

:56:36.:56:38.

anywhere. Perhaps you shouldn't have taken the money if you wanted to ban

:56:39.:56:44.

him. No one got the money, Jo. It's still investment in Scotland. It's

:56:45.:56:47.

still investment. What's fascinating is there are people that share that

:56:48.:56:51.

view. Both in this country and in the United States. You could be like

:56:52.:56:57.

Jebb Bush and say Donald Trump is unhinged and it's a provocative

:56:58.:57:00.

statement, where does it get you? I want to know where that statement

:57:01.:57:06.

has traction. Maybe it's been inartfully presented and yes, I

:57:07.:57:10.

agree, I think it's racist or insulting, but there are people with

:57:11.:57:13.

fears. We need to discuss that issue, not just from his point of

:57:14.:57:17.

view, but again from the angle of the constituencies. What are charnss

:57:18.:57:21.

of him winning the nomination - chances Originally it was sort of

:57:22.:57:31.

like the chances of a celluloid cat chasing a mouse through hell. It's

:57:32.:57:35.

conceivable, very small, but, you know what, no one knows. I talk to

:57:36.:57:41.

friends in DC and we are all totally confused by this. The rules have

:57:42.:57:44.

been rewritten. Let's see what happens. Yeah. We will get you back

:57:45.:57:47.

on snoochlt it will be interesting. Thank you very much. -- We will get

:57:48.:57:50.

you back on. It will be interesting. There's just time before we go

:57:51.:57:54.

to find out the answer to our quiz. The question was: what is

:57:55.:57:57.

the Parliamentary expenses watchdog considering as a replacement for

:57:58.:57:59.

MPs' rental properties in London? A) student-style halls of residence

:58:00.:58:02.

b) house boats on the Thames c) Battersea power station or d)

:58:03.:58:05.

the Hilton on Park Lane Does anyone Anyone know the answer? I am afraid

:58:06.:58:17.

not. Trump hotel? All of them sound more expensive than the current

:58:18.:58:21.

arrangement. It's actually the student halls. Would you like to be

:58:22.:58:27.

in student-style accommodation? The South Bank apartments are pretty

:58:28.:58:31.

much that anyway. You know, do you? My London home is no expense to the

:58:32.:58:39.

taxpayer. That's a no then. I don't pay for my accommodation either so I

:58:40.:58:42.

am not sure. The One o'clock News is starting

:58:43.:58:44.

over on BBC One now. Andrew and I will be back

:58:45.:58:49.

here at 11.30am tomorrow for the first PMQs of 2016

:58:50.:58:51.

and all the big political stories

:58:52.:58:55.

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