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Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics,
The BBC has learnt that David Cameron is to allow his
ministers to campaign for - or against - Britain remaining
The Prime Minister's expected to make the announcement later today.
But Ministers will only be able to break ranks once the UK has
completed renegotiating its relationship with the EU.
Jeremy Corbyn is in the midst of reshuffling his cabinet.
The shadow cultural secretary has already been shown the door.
There's been speculation he would sack several prominent
politicians who don't share all his views on policy.
Should Donald Trump be barred from entering the UK?
Our Ellie's been testing the mood on the streets.
Nothing wrong with a bit of inflammatory now and again just
And with 2016 set to be another bumper political year,
I am here to tell you who will be first past the post in the London
mayoral election, whether or not we will see a photo
finish agreement for the EU referendum, and who the hot odds-on
favourite is to be the next president of the United States.
All that in the next hour and with us for the duration former
Conservative International Development Secretary,
The Shadow Women and Equalities Minister,
Cat Smith, and SNP MP, Tommy Sheppard.
Now, first today to Europe because the BBC understands
David Cameron will allow members of his Cabinet to campaign on either
He's expected to make the announcement later this
afternoon, he's certainly due in the Commons at 3.30
to bring MPs up to speed on his EU renegotiation efforts.
David Cameron hopes to reach a final deal on renegotiation at the next EU
This could pave the way for a referendum as early as June.
But September is also a possibility as is a vote early in 2017.
There are a number of tricky issues still to be addressed.
Crucially, David Cameron has to reach an agreement with the rest
of the 28 states that make up the European Union.
This is easier said than done - EU President Donald Tusk says member
states are "far from agreement on several topics".
Some of the Prime Minister's demands such as banning EU migrants
from receiving in-work tax credits for four years
are proving particularly controversial.
But, assuming Cameron reaches a deal, the BBC expects Cabinet
ministers to be allowed to campaign to leave the EU
The Justice Secretary Michael Gove and Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond
have both said they would be prepared to vote no.
Home Secretary Theresa May has also left the door open to backing
Will he have to resign if Britain votes to leave the EU after leading
The Labour party say they will make the case for continued
membership of the EU, whatever the outcome
But they won't whip MPs to support their party line -
so there's potential for Shadow Cabinet splits too.
Let's speak now to BBC Five Live's Chief Political Correspondent,
John, why has this happens now? David Cameron is following through
on promises that he has given in private to senior sceptics for some
while, I don't think he realistically had a choice but to
take this step. It would have been a big shock and story if he decided
not to do it. If he tried to keep all of his ministers in line,
batting in favour of continued membership, whatever happens in
these negotiations, there was a real risk of resignations. We would be
looking at the likes of Iain Duncan Smith and Chris Grayling. It could
all unravel very, very quickly. David Cameron and his party will
have a big enough problem keeping his party united through the
process. This is dealing with a wound before it opens up. A sign of
weakness? Assignable realism. He recognises, as we all can see, that
there are deep in divisions in the Tory party. This was an accident
waiting to happen. There were senior ministers who were looking to
getting out of Europe. David Cameron has forced it all. Whatever happens
after this, David Cameron has a job to do. If the boat is to get out of
the EU, the question of David Cameron's survival becomes an issue.
Do you think some members of the Cabinet who may indeed campaign to
come out of the EU, do you see any of them leading that campaign? That
remains to be seen. We await to see who urges in the front and centre.
What we will see are the likes of potentially Iain Duncan Smith, Chris
Grayling, out there from the moment the deal is signed. That can happen
as early as a couple of weeks' time. There may be a deal in February that
is agreed by David Cameron. At this point, every bet is off and they can
go their own way. And we're joined now by the UKIP
MP, Douglas Carswell. Welcome back. Andrew, was that the
right decision? Yes, it was, and it was the obvious decision to take. It
means we all support the Prime Minister on his renegotiation,
collective responsibility continues. Once the deal is on the table for
the British public to decide, every member of Parliament can follow
their conscience and the collective responsibility ends. I got all this
grey hair from being a government whip drawing the Maastricht crisis
and I have seen what you can do, where you try to end the position
and it breaks. -- during. This is the right decision if this is what
he announces this afternoon, and it is not just in the party interest in
Britain's interest. It shows David Cameron could not hold his cabinet
together on a line here supporting. He is accepting that there are very
different views within his Cabinet. Quite rightly, he is allowing
members of his Cabinet to express those views. Not now while
negotiations are going on... Why has he announced it now? Because you
have been announcing these questions. -- asking these
questions. Is it pressure from the media? It is the realistic decision
to take and it reflect this and recognises the depth of this issue,
and this is a referendum on his renegotiation where everybody can
vote as their conscience dictate. Douglas, are you pleased? Is it a
boost for your campaign? I am pleased that we could be six months
away from a referendum and we have a chance to win it. There is real
momentum. There was a realignment in the Conservative Party with senior
figures preparing to come out and campaign to leave. People in Labour
are preparing to leave. Business leaders, opinion is shifting in
favour of leaving. It is incredibly exciting. There was a broad-based
opinion. It is very exciting. Douglas Carswell has mentioned the
Labour Party as well. If you have big figures like Theresa May all
backing an EU exit, it is a big blow for the campaign to stay in the EU.
The Conservative Party will always be split on Europe and Cameron was
between a rock and a hard place and had to give the MPs his free vote.
That will give its momentum. I don't expect any big beasts from Labour
will campaign alongside Douglas in this referendum. When I was a
Conservative backbench MP I got to know Jeremy Corbyn who was a
backbencher. I kept on bumping into him in the voting lobby when we
voted against the consensus of David Cameron Ancona. Will Jeremy Corbyn
vote to come out? There is an ambivalent relationship between the
corporatist cartel in Brussels. How can it be that the left in this
country is putting the interests of bankers ahead of working people in
Europe? Nobody has said that the EU is a perfect institution which we
support. We are saying that it is better for British workers to be in
the EU then out of it because it is through the EU that many of the
rights we have one for maternity pay and leave, workers' writes, all of
these right... Is it ambivalent? What you are getting here is a
preview of the debate on the renegotiation which will take place
in the months before the referendum but everybody in our country who is
over the aged abode can listen to the argument -- over the age of
consent can vote. You are also in favour of the EU staying in the EU.
There is an assumption that Scotland is overwhelmingly pro-EU. What is
your evidence that? That is what the polls suggest. The polls are mixed.
The polls suggest 72% of people want to stay within the EU. We want
reforms and a better EU but we can do that from the position of being
in rather than out. You ask whether this was the right decision that
David Cameron was going to take stock it is the right decision for
the Tories but not for the country. The premise that is putting his
party before the country and it is time he showed some leadership in
this. He seems to have given up the prospect of getting a deal in these
discussions with his European partners. That is a ridiculous
position for the Prime Minister to be in before he has even concluded
his discussions. What do you say? There isn't enough for those who are
already Euro-sceptic to actually support? I don't agree with Tommy.
The fact is that the Prime Minister is an extremely good negotiator. His
political opponents would say that. What are you expecting him to get?
You have to wait until he concludes his negotiations. I worked closely
with him for seven and a half years and he is the most Euro-sceptic
Prime Minister that I have known in my 30 odd years in politics. He will
get a good deal. The EU is flat on its back. There has never been a
lesser appetising time for the EU. Look at the EU, Greece, the stagnant
economy, the euro, he will have to do a deal to get Britain into a
better place and I believe he will do. He wouldn't campaign to come
out, would he? I expect him to be successful on the negotiation. It is
not a secret negotiation, everyone is revealing how it is going and I
expect him to be successful. You said he's the most Euro-sceptic
Prime Minister, would there be a situation where he campaigns to come
out? Let us wait and see the results of the negotiations, I am not
dealing with hypothetical situations. I expect him to
negotiate a successful deal. He is an opportunity to renegotiate our
relationship with Europe but the negotiations are reduced to try and
say that Polish owners cannot claim benefits, it is pathetic. -- Polish
plumbers. It has been watered down and watered-down and what we have
seen is a dilutive version of a agenda which has never been
seriously considered. -- undiluted. There is not much time left. He
should be united behind his former colleagues. Let's talk about Douglas
Carswell and being unified. What is going on with you and Nigel Farage?
We had a season of goodwill but there has been a spat between the
two of you, is it resolved? I have made my views clear and I will not
articulate them again. I was Frank. You want a fresh face? I was asked
on the strategic direction of Ukip and I have articulated that but this
is about the EU. Does it help if you have two lead campaigns to start
with? We interviewed Nigel Farage and he said that you will have to
put up or shut up. I am involved in the league campaign, and Nigel is
involved in the other campaign. -- leave. It is sensible for Ukip to be
backing both forces in a two horse race. Only one campaign will get
additional designation. Imagine a scenario where the SNP had managed
to isolate itself on the official independence campaign, of course we
want to be involved in both campaigns but the electoral
commission will designate one of them and we want to make sure we are
working closely with the officially designated campaign. Have you spoken
to Nigel Farage over Christmas? Not on the phone. What has happened? He
said that we cannot have one individual to give an impression
that Ukip is divided when actually it is very united. On the issue of
the EU referendum, we are united. We do have a common position in wanting
to leave the EU and we are campaigning with the two campaigns.
It is bizarre that you and Nigel Farage are in two different
campaigns. Are you staying within Ukip? Have you had discussions about
withdrawing? I am 100% Ukip and committed to them. And to Nigel
Farage? Nigel is doing a great job. We are 17% in the opinion polls but
I want is to be on 37%. In order to do this... In two years' time, I
don't want us to be on 70% but on 27%. There are some useful
suggestions I can make. Are you not going to say anything more? No. Do
you regret it? I very rarely regret anything. This could be one of them.
The important thing is that we will have this referendum and I think we
will win. Have you got anywhere with the
campaign requiring all four nations must vote to withdraw from the EU if
that's to pass? Well, we put the argument. Hasn't got anywhere, has
it? The Government refuses to listen to the argument. The idea of there
being a... It's rejecting it. Rejecting it out of hand because
there are many examples where a double majority is required for a
decision to be taken. The United States of America being in its
constitutional amendments being the most obvious one. I think the
problem in not allowing it is that there is a potential major
constitutional headache on the way if... Why? If Scotland votes in
large part to stay in the European Union, and England votes with an
equally large majority to leave, then I think there is going to be a
lot of anger in Scotland about being dragged out of the EU against the
will of the people that live in Scotland. Would that propell you
into campaigning for another referendum? Independence referendum
It would beg a question to which independence would be one answer but
it would need a lot of soul-searching if that takes place
and it will throw up a constitutional crisis. The poll of
polls put the remain in the EU campaign ten points ahead, as we
know from the most recent general election, polls polls, relying on
them, is a risky business. What will you be doing, what will Labour be
doing to encourage people to vote to remain? Labour's been very clear
from the outset here that we want to remain part of a reformed EU You are
going to remain come what may, that's clear? We will do that by
arguing that being in the EU is better for British workers and
British families and that we are all better off being active members of
the EU and playing a part in it. What's your evidence for that? What
are the figures that you have for saying that families are better off
within the EU, the British workers? Look at the investment the EU makes
in the UK, engs in the example, for instance, in Scotland, where the EU
supports a lot of businesses there. Outside of London and the south-east
where politics and the media tend to be quite focussed, the EU is
investing in our regions. We are net contributors, aren't we? There is an
EU fund that we could be applying to... Your local MP could lobby
their own Government. I am doing. David Cameron is refusing to engage
with the EU so that we are not getting all out that we already can.
You say there is momentum but the poll of polls just for arguments
sake does put the Recampaign campaign ten points ahead, we
haven't heard from the renegotiation deal. There is a European-wide
migration crisis. Terrorism across the continent. You might think leave
would be doing better and they're not. I was looking at some polls
recently that put the two camps neck-and-neck. We need to be
sceptical, you are right. Momentum is with Leave. We saw senior
business figures today, opinion shifting. Many of the undecideds who
are going to decide the outcome are making thaup their mind and that we
would be better off out. You are confident David Cameron should get a
good deal, should he resign if he loses this referendum? Again it's
entirely hypothetical question. It's not, it's potentially happening in a
few months? I expect him to successfully renegotiate Britain's
position. Should he resign... If he does so successfully I expect him to
win. And what Cat said is right, people will decide on the basis of
their living standards, what's best for their family. But this is going
to be a tight debate. I think that the two campaigns are neck-and-neck.
We are going to see the result of negotiations and then everyone makes
up their mind. Thank you for telling us that.
Parliament's expenses watchdog is considering a further crackdown
But what is IPSA considering as a replacement for rental
Is it a) student-style halls of residence b) house boats
on the Thames c) Battersea power station or d) the Hilton on Park
Although other hotels are available.
of the show our MPs will give us the correct answer!
We are saying goodbye to you at this stage. Lovely to be here.
It's the reshuffle that seems to have gone on for rather a long
But this lunchtime we'll finally be getting details
of who is in and who is out of Jeremy Corbyn's new look Shadow
Let's talk now to a man who knows what's going on,
the BBC's Assistant Editor, Norman Smith.
You are laughing, I am not filled with confidence! This has been the
longest reshuffle in history with not that much going on. Is Jeremy
Corbyn talking to every member of the Labour Party before he moves
anyone? I was laughing because you suggested we might have some details
by lunchtime. I doubt it because we now discover that the Shadow Cabinet
meeting scheduled for quarter to one has been cancelled. Why? Because
Jeremy Corbyn does not have a new Shadow Cabinet so that meeting will
take place we do not know when, sometime later this afternoon. This
is a reshuffle which has now been going on for more than 24 hours, so
far only one person has been ousted, that's the Shadow Culture Secretary
Michael Dugher. In a way not surprising because he has been a
public critic of Jeremy Corbyn. What is surprising is the response to his
sacking because a whole series of senior Shadow Cabinet ministers have
issued statements backing Michael Dugher saying what a terrific member
of the Cabinet he is, how he manages to reach out to northern
working-class voters, what a loss he will be to the Shadow Cabinet and
that from figures like Andy Burnham, Tom Watson, some of the big beasts
in the Shadow Cabinet. My sense is where we are now, Jeremy Corbyn
finds himself hemmed in. He can't do what he wants to do, which is move
Hilary Benn and move Maria Eagle because he knows if he does that he
faces a Shadow Cabinet revolt and resignations. Where we are heading,
eventually, I think, is towards not a revenge reshuffle, but potentially
a damp squib reshuffle. In the end Jeremy Corbyn realised he didn't
have the power or strength to do what he wanted to do, in your mind?
Yeah, I think he will present it as underlining how he is willing to
listen to different voices, he is not going to carry out some ruthless
sort of purge. The reality, I think, is this, there are people around him
who want him to seize this moment in the wake of the Oldham by-election,
in the wake even of the Syria vote when something like 70% of the party
backed him, they want him to seize this moment and they think he lacks
the steel, the ruthlessness to get rid of some of his dissidents and
critics in the Shadow Cabinet. He, however - he likes to discuss
things. He likes to talk things through. He likes to reach consensus
and I think by inclination he does not want to be in the position of
having to shove people out the door, never mind the threat of
resignations which there almost certainly would be and a clear
warning from the Chief Whip that if he did that the Shadow Cabinet would
implode because there would be a London of -- a load of Ministers who
would say right, we are out of here. We will leave you there for what may
turn out to be a long afternoon! And with us now former
Shadow Chancellor, Chris Leslie. Welcome back. Would you describe
this as a revenge reshuffle or a purge? Michael Dugher said it would
be wrong to have a revenge reshuffle and look what's happened to him, I
am not sure why he has been reshuffled, what exactly his sin
was. I think he was very effective in opposing the Government and
opposing the Conservatives. I don't think removing him makes Labour's
chances of winning any greater. I am afraid that there is a sort of
natural impetus amongst the hard-left who want to tighten their
control, they want to sideline moderate voices when they have the
chance to do so. It looks as though it might be more incremental. We
don't know the time-scale of this particular reshuffle. I don't think
anybody should be surprised about that is the nature of the hard-left.
You built this up. You and some of your, as you describe them moderate
colleagues, have obviously been briefing about this revenge
reshuffle, this purge that you feared. It's not happening. We don't
know because the reshuffle is going on and on. Obscuring a lot of very
good campaigning that people were doing on rail fares, the housing
bill in the House of Commons. The Government has tried to hide beneath
this news of the reshuffle, a major change on European referendum
policy. What we should be doing, of course, is appealing to the wider
public and listening to what the public's views are. This is all
before we even get to some of the economic and fiscal issues where
according to a poll yesterday only 18% of the public, apparently, have
confidence in the current front bench view when it comes to the
economy. What was wrong with Michael Dugher I think Jeremy Corbyn as
leader of the Labour Party is within his rights to pick the people that
he wants to serve in his Shadow Cabinet. If he doesn't want people
in the Shadow Cabinet who spend more time attacking the Labour Party
leadership than the Tory benches opposite us, he is perfectly within
his rights to do that. I think Jeremy is -- Jeremy is in a wrong
position, we ended 2015 on a strong note, we pshed back on credits and
police cuts and he is trying to realign the top team to match more
what the PLP is and the party. I think the current Shadow Cabinet,
frankly, is to the right of where the PLP is. If you look for instance
on the vote on Syria, more Labour MPs voted with Jeremy Corbyn than
with Hilary Benn. You would expect him to move Hilary Benn You just
said you wanted him to realign. If he was realigning he would move
Hilary Benn because he holds a contradictory position on air
strikes. He would be moving Maria Eagle from Shadow defence because
she doesn't agree with the view on Trident, so he has bottled it The
reshuffle hasn't finished yet. Would you be disappointed if that doesn't
happen I won't be disappointed with anything that comes out of this
reshuffle. It's a minor change, it's not a full reshuffle. It's not
all-out. I regret the fact you have said what you said about Michael
Dugher and saying he was attacking more time on the - he is an
effective communicators when it comes to an effective fighting force
against appalling right-wing changes. I hope he continues to do
that from the back benches. I don't think it was right to have
characterised Michael in that way. His sin, I think, was to dare to
have different views and we know that the hard-left famously cannot
tolerate any dissident. Who are the hart-left, Chris Is it Cat? A lot of
people are in the ascendency within the Labour Party who associate with
the hard-left. I am a Labour MP, I am proud to be Labour and I am
assuming you feel the same. I got elected as a Labour MP. You said we
were too right-wing. Not to fight internally. It's right that Jeremy
Corbyn has a team around him he trusts. Absolutely. He can't be an
effective leader... He didn't trust Michael Dugher? He is either having
a realignment or not. To put to you, Michael Dugher did describe momentum
as stupid and that's the grass roots organisation, not just of Labour
Party members but others. Is that the sort of language that will help
this integration to stop this in-fighting within Labour? We all
care about Labour winning in the future and if we end up with a
hard-left agenda, whether it's printing money, whether it's
nationalisation without compensation, whatever it happens to
be, the public will take a view on that and I don't know what you think
about the opinion poll that put Labour at 18% of trust. They'll have
to take a pinch of salt after the last general election. A lot of
people are in marginal seats, yourself included, we have to start
not just listening to those who feel strongly about a hard-left wing
position but want to listen to the wider public. If we see people like
Maria Eagle, for example, being sidelined because she cares about a
strong defence for our country, I think that would be massively
regrettable. I hope it doesn't happen. We will see how this pans
out. This is what the Labour Party has become, this in-fighting with
two different factions when there are issues that people are worried
about, whether it's the economy, whether it's flooding, whether it is
air strikes in Syria and this is all we have had from the Labour Party.
As a party, we will have debate within, there is no Labour MP I
agree with 100%. There is the same for Chris, as well. We are a
coalition of people who come together around the values that the
country... You are not coming together, are you? Internally we
will S have these discussions. Do you think Jeremy Corbyn is going to
lead Labour to victory in 2020? It's so far away. I worry that the way we
are going is moving away from electability, I hope that we can
wake up and realise the public looking at this, they want to hear
about campaigning on flooding, what's happening on housing bill,
the European referendum, but all they see is a sort of narrowing
view, the sort of disdainful hard-left focussing inWardley,
rather than engaging with the wider public on things they care about.
That's my anxiety. What do you say to that I would say that this week
we have been campaigning on the railways. Nobody's heard it. We have
and I have been doing it and you have been doing it. Where have the
public not heard of it We moved our policy position to something that's
closer to where the public are than what we had previously. If you ask
the public they would like to see railways back in public ownership,
is that hard-left? What do you say when you view this
going on? You have experience with the Labour Party. In one sense, this
debate is less relevant because the Labour Party has been replaced by
the centre-left party, the SNP. I do think the people of England need a
centre-left alternative. Who represents that? It is sad that is
not there at the moment. Two things need to happen. All of us have
witnessed in the House of Commons the most amazing infighting going on
within the Labour benches and as an observer it seems to be a tax on the
current leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, rather than attacks from Jeremy
Corbyn. The people on Chris's wing of the party needs to recognise and
respect that Jeremy Corbyn has a mandate to be leader but Jeremy
Corbyn also need to show some leadership. There has been a lot of
pussyfooting around, indecision, not whipping decisions, not seeking
backing on certain things, that needs to stop and he needs to start
acting like a leader and get respect from all wings of the party to be
able to do it. Do you think you will get it? I do not have the patience
of some of those who have stuck it out in the Shadow Cabinet. It is not
right to sit by and see good colleagues being sacked. Michael was
the only one we know about so far. They are good colleagues who care
about Labour winning and campaigning, and have been
disparaged as somehow wanting to attack Labour its self, rather than
fighting to win a general election. What are you going to do about it? I
think it is important that those of us who do believe in a moderate
centre-left Labour Party fight strongly for that and I am vocal for
that. At this stage, the hard left needs to be prepared for that. How
we going to fight for that? Let's see how the reshuffle goes stop are
you going to challenge Jeremy Corbyn and the hard left? Wants to focus on
getting the Labour Party into tip top shape and appealing to the
general public. Andrew Mitchell? May I make two points? Firstly, any
party that is seriously considering replacing somebody of the character
and quality of Hilary Benn is not in a good place, particularly given
some of the names suggested stop he does not agree with the leader. In
the end, Jeremy Corbyn has to take position of his party or he will be
buffeted around on the waves and that is why I have some sympathy
with Cat. Thank you for the advice. Thank you.
Now, 2016 could be a humdinger of a political year.
Are the bookies hoping for a bumper crop of bets?
Earlier, I spoke to Alex Donnahue from Ladbrokes.
I began by asking him if the odds on the EU referendum were still very
close between the leave and remain camps?
If the referendum does take place this year,
we say it is the even money favourite that the UK votes to stay,
If the referendum does happen this year, those are the odds,
and we say it is a 50-50 chance that we will stay put
The bets to leave are the ones that are definitely shortening.
Those odds are around 3/1 this time last year.
Those odds are coming in all the time.
My prediction would be that as soon as we get an announcement
of the year or date those odds will get shorter still.
Let's have a look at the mayoral election also this year.
Labour have got Sadiq Khan, there are other candidates of course
but how does it look between those two?
That is another one where we make pretty much a coin toss
although Sadiq Khan is the odds-on favourite at 8/11.
Zac Goldsmith just behind at 11/10 , so we are saying that Sadiq Khan
is the narrow but odds-on favourite to become the Mayor
What about the future of the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn?
There had been plenty of speculation that he might be replaced before
2020, how was it looking from your side?
I should say that he is odds-on to actually survive until 2020.
Those who think there will be a reshuffle this year
A controversial figure in the USA, what are the odds on him or anybody
He is the second favourite to become the next president at 4/1.
Those odds were really long not so long ago, 100/1, 200/1.
I should add that he is even shorter at 2/1 to visit the UK this year.
I'm not sure too many people would be pleased to see that
but as far as the other candidates are concerned,
Hillary Clinton, odds-on favourite 4/6, and for the Republicans,
Marco Rubio, 11/2, Ted Cruz, 8/1 and Bernie Sanders at 16/1
if he does get the Democratic nomination.
Let's come closer to home and talk about the local elections coming
What are the chances of Ukip winning seats in Wales?
We think they have a decent chance of picking up a handful of seats
in Wales, maybe eight or maybe nine, but to get ten, that is 3/1.
And the Scottish Nationalist Party, they did extremely
What about this year's Holyrood elections?
They did indeed and a clean sweep is 7/2.
Let's talk to the Guardian's Polly Toynbee and Sam Coates
Happy New Year to both of you. Looking good. Sam, who is going to
fare best in the May elections? I think London will be the biggest
thing, the Westminster bubble. At the moment, it feels like Siddique
Khan is narrowly ahead. We had interviews with both Zac Goldsmith
and Siddique Khan and Zac Goldsmith put in a curiously poor performance
on the radio this morning, sanding unsure of himself on delicate
allegations against Sadiq Khan. He has been around a while and it feels
like he is likely in front. The Zac Goldsmith campaign backed by his
company, they are going to throw everything at this. It is close but
it feels like Labour are in with a chance. However, that might not be
altogether good news for the wider Labour Party if it means Jeremy
Corbyn can claim a win and thereby solidify his position as Labour
leader because many will look at the elections and whether or not Labour
is dragged down by its current leader or whether in fact that's he
is an electoral liability. Holly, how do you see it in terms of the
key elections? Is it true that if Khan winds for Labour then that will
just lend power to Jeremy Corbyn? It looks like Khan will win. Labour is
extraordinarily strong in London, getting stronger all the time.
London is almost the Labour heartland. Khan, the son of a bus
driver coming he is Mr London. His experience as a politician will
show. Zac Goldsmith is a newcomer, a beginner, not terribly good at it.
Will it affect the views of Jeremy Corbyn? I don't think Khan will be
dragged down by Jeremy Corbyn's lack of popularity and I don't dig it
will show that Jeremy Corbyn is a great success. Labour can win all
kinds of elections, locally around country. Unaffected for good or bad
by Jeremy Corbyn. The Conservative leadership contest. Now we know that
David Cameron is not going to stand again, and depending on what happens
with the EU referendum which could be as early as June, it would be
surprising if there was not already some pretty clear jostling for
position other than what we know. Yes, the preplanning for this has
begun in earnest and there are conversations about it. The Times
had a big hole about this last week and we found it is pretty much neck
and neck among Tory voters. -- poll. What was interesting was what was
going on with the wider public which showed Boris Johnson comfortably out
in front, Theresa May in second and George Osborne in third. The numbers
suggest that while Boris Johnson is the Heineken politician, George
Osborne is whatever the opposite of that is not a dry white wine
politician! Doesn't translate very well among Labour voters or Ukip
voters or Lib Dem voters, so really his popularity is in that narrow
Tory Brecon and that might be enough to get across the line but it might
also worry conservatives that he does not have that appeal despite
months and months of presenting himself as a man of the working
people, the man of the Northern Powerhouse, that is not shifted the
public attitudes towards him. He has a bit of time but people have
already made up their minds. What is the opposite of a Heineken
politician? Give us analogy on that. George Osborne's chancers will hinge
on the economy performance. We have two remember that the most important
being to happen in Britain for a long time is the EU referendum. --
chances. It decides the fate of this nation for ever and it could be
catastrophic if we pull out stop if George Osborne put his shoulder to
the wheel and failed or only just scraped past in getting Britain to
remain then I think he will look quite weak. If on the other hand
Caroline Osborne got 65% and put it to bed for ever to end the ludicrous
rift in the Tory party, sending the other side away with their tail
between their legs, then I think he is in a strong position. A lot of it
depends on winning this most important battle, far more important
than any internal warfare is in either party. Finally, there is talk
about Scotland. The SNP could do even better this time round than
last time. It does feel like they are in a commanding position and the
big danger for Scotland is the Labour Party. People are talking
down here about the need for Labour to make progress in the May
elections and showing that the beginning to claw back some of the
territory from the in Scotland but there is no sign that is working.
Nicola Sturgeon appears like a Teflon politician and if you see
Labour facing another catastrophic defeat in May then the chances are
that the moderate politicians will also fall by the wayside, and then I
think one of Jeremy Corbyn's analyses will come in and take her
place, meaning that the Scottish Labour Party is pretty much a Jeremy
Corbyn entity. We saw some polls that they would narrowly votes for
Jeremy Corbyn if there was an election immediately and the SNP is
now behind the leader if Labour does catastrophically in May. What
evidence is there of any recovery by Labour in Scotland? We make no bones
about it, it will be a challenging collection for Labour in Scotland
and we have a long way to come back from the general election defeat
where we were almost wiped out by the SNP. Nothing has changed? We
have to give it time and we earn the trust of voters in Scotland, and
that will not happen overnight stop I will be out in Scotland,
campaigning, knocking on doors, with my party and it will be a slog. We
can come back but it will take time. Is cosier the right leader? She is a
fantastic leader of the SNP. I am happy to do forcer -- I am happy to
support. -- Kezia. Should there be a bar? It is going to be challenging
and as I am not Scottish myself I will not set any bars. In a way,
will and SNP victory be equal to or better to last time round then give
you a mandate? We probably won't be seeking a referendum on independence
in the election, that is not part of the manifesto. Would it
kick-start... One thing we will see in our
kick-start... One thing we will see powers and authority coming north of
the border and the Scottish Government having more control to
shape the lives of people in Scotland. In that sense, there is
unfinished business from the last referendum, and it will be for the
government to decide how it responds to the wishes of the people in the
SNP does get the majority. We do intend to fight for every single
vote, we take nothing for granted in this election. What has the SNP
achieved so far at Westminster? We provided a strong voice for
Scotland's... What has been achieved, policy? The SNP won the
election in 56 out of 65 seat in May but we did not foresee the type of
government that we have seen in England. In those circumstances, it
is difficult to actually achieve things but there are certainly many
aspects in which our resistance with others has been part of the process
of making the government run away from debates, whether that be the
Human Rights Act, the timing of the EU referendum or the tax credit
issue. The independence referendum, Nicola Sturgeon kick-started the SNP
election bid and said the SNP has a special responsibility to lead a
renewed debate about independence, do you agree? Would be a platform
for another Scotland is now much more relaxed
after the referendum as a country. It's heading on a journey which I
think will lead to independented pence. One of the interesting...
When? One of the interesting opinion poll questions is if you ask people
do they think they'll see independence in their lifetime and a
clear majority, 60%-plus, of people say yes to that question. It's now
seen as a natural state of affairs, rather than a far off distapt dream.
Is it a natural state of affairs, people might say now seize the
opportunity, the SNP may never as popular as now in Scotland, why
wouldn't you go for it? It's not even been 18 months since we had a
thorough referendum and thorough examination of this question and we
respected the decision that was taken. Although we would point out
that one of the reasons why a lot of people voted against independence is
because they were made promise that is have not been kept. It's part of
our job to try and make sure those promises are kept and to advance the
cause of independence And perhaps use powers you already have at your
disposal? Yes and to get more powers we can do more. There hasn't been a
demonstration of what you have done with the powers so far. If you ask
people who don't have to pay tuition fees, or people who are sick don't
have to pay for medicine... Delays on the Forth Bridge, are thee things
you have achieved? Which one will I talk about? Let's start with
admissions. The health service in Scotland, we obviously need to do
more and there is room for improvement we are achieving the 95%
target on waiting times... That wasn't the target you set. 95% was
the target. I thought it was 98%. The target was 95% and that's being
achieved. What about delays to the Forth Road Bridge, closed for weeks
and the budget cut. The reason it was closed was not to do with that.
Labour tried to make a point on that and had to retract quickly on it.
The bridge is an old structure, 50 years old this year. It's coming to
the end of its life. These are things you have power to do
something about. The Scottish Government took a safety first
attitude, we closed the bridge. Put be public safety first and we were
able to get it open ahead of schedule. It was delayed and
suddenly it was announced it would be early. The ferry crossing is
under budget and ahead of schedule in construction. Has flood defence
been reduced? Not as much as England and Wales It's been reduced and
communities in Scotland have had the most dreadful time over Christmas
and new year, was that a wise decision? There are warnings that
rivers are still rising in Aberdeenshire tonight. We need to
look and see if there is enough being put in to flood defence. There
is a cut of 6% in the budget. However, George Osborne is planning
a cut of 30%. These are things that you have the powers to do something
about. We don't set the overall Scottish budget, that's set by
George Osborne. Tldz but there are things you can do. I am trying to go
through some issues. Free education, free medicine. In terms of the next
Conservative leader, the starting gun has been fired, there are going
to be members of the Cabinet to campaign on the referendum. Who
would you put your money on? There are two outstanding candidates, one
is George Osborne and the other is Boris Johnson. Who is your favourite
Both have tremendous qualities. The Labour Party can only dream of
having two candidates of that sort of calibre. Only one can be the next
leader. The point that your intelligent and clever journalists
were making about the leadership election was not taking sufficient
account of the fact that the parliamentary party decide on the
last two and of course within parliament George Osborne is very,
very dominant. He is almost certain to get on to the ballot paper. The
question is who else will get on to the ballot paper with him and the
public, members of the Conservative Party will choose between those two.
That's a factor which I don't think Sam sufficiently put into his
calculations. Who would you like to be the next leader It's too early to
say. Both are strong, appealing candidates, not just within the
Conservative Party but widely across the country. Do you think it was a
mistake by David Cameron to announce he wasn't going to stand next time.
That's what everything will be about, post the referendum, whatever
the result No, it was an extremely clever to do. It avoids the terrible
problems that Tony Blair had within his parliamentary party. Making it
clear means he owes no one anything. He can reshuffle as he sees fit and
everyone knows when he is going. No one is agitating to get rid of him.
That may change after the EU referendum depending on what
happens. In terms... I don't think it will actually. He said when he is
going to go, by the end of this parliament. The Tory Party owes
David Cameron a huge debt. Can he really stay on and serve a full
term? Surely whatever happens with the EU referendum once that result
is clear there will be a case for him to step down before. That's a
matter for him and no one in the Conservative Party really believes
it's a matter for anyone else. How worried about the economy, slowing
down in terms of growth and impact here That's the central issue in
this parliament, it's whether we can sustain the British economy doing
better than other European economies, creating an extraordinary
number of new jobs, really boosting and lifting living standards,
getting young people into work. Those are the real issues which
people want to see us deliver on and that's our challenge. Thank you.
More than half a million Brits have signed a petition demanding
Donald Trump be banned from entering the UK.
Later today the Parliamentary Peitions Committee meets
and will decide whether or not parliament should debate just that.
Welcome to the first moodbox of 2016.
Now a few weeks ago a certain US presidential hopeful said he thought
all Muslims should be barred from entering the USA.
A subsequent petition here said he should be barred
So what better place to ask people than here?
Should Donald Trump be allowed in or kept out of Britain?
What he said is wrong, we don't have to listen to it,
but if we start blocking him then we'll be doing what he is doing
saying Muslims aren't allowed in the United States.
No, I don't know some of the statements he's making quite
fit the inclusive culture we would like to showcase
Celebrity personality on politics is something we should probably
Should we let him into the UK or not?
Well, unlike Donald Trump this street is pretty quiet so I think
we need to take the moodbox somewhere a bit busier.
# Nellie the elephant packed her trunk and said goodbye
# Off she went with a trumpety trump.
There is a few little crazies already in the UK, aren't there?
Yeah, but we don't want another one here really.
Nothing wrong with a bit of inflammatory now and again
# Off she went with a trumpety trump.
Screw Donald Trump, he is an abomination to America.
I think he speaks what a lot of people won't speak.
And, yes, I do actually feel he should be allowed in the country.
We let a lot of other people in and we never track them.
He is a bit of a toe-rag, to be honest.
A toe-rag, no one else has called him a toe-rag.
He is such an idiot, let's have a go at him.
The last time I checked around 550,000 people had signed
the petition saying that Donald Trump should not be
But then another 40,000 people signed a petition against that
petition saying he should be allowed in.
We didn't have anywhere near that many people for the moodbox
but there was an overwhelming majority that said Donald Trump
And we're joined now by the writer and broadcaster,
and Republican supporter, Charlie Wolf.
With that many on the petition shouldn't parliament discuss it? I
think it's already been discussed. We made statements. Listening to the
programme today and all the issues you were discussing, the floods,
Isil, Labour Party reshuffle, if it's happening or not happening, do
we really want to spend a morning discussing Donald Trump? It only
actually is what he would love. He thrives on publicity. A matter of
fact, if he has any problem, I don't know if it's number one or not, if
he is not number one he will think you are all stupid. As Donald Trump
would say. It's been done. What are you going to say that hasn't been
said? Let's ask them. Are you in favour of a debate on this? ? I am
more than happy to debate it in parliament, I hope the committee
allow us that opportunity. What would you say? We should have the
debate with him. He should come or shouldn't be barred We should show
him exactly how London is and it's not a place he believes it to be and
that communities live alongside each other and rub along fine. Should he
be allowed? ? I would probably say no. I don't think he should be
welcome here. Why not? Given statements about saying against
Muslims, for example, I think it's offensive to a large number of
British people. I don't think he should be allowed here. He could be
the next US President. When this guy is possibly elected and he is banned
from the country, you know, our closest ally? We will cross that
bridge when we come to it. Let's hope for the sanity of the world
that he is not elected. I hope the American people come to their senses
on that one and see through Trump. He is a nasty man peddling awful
ideas which are set to divide people and don't get to the heart of real
problems we face. Should that not be a question for debating with him
rather than barring him there are lots of other nasty people that we
do let into the UK? I am in favour of talking to people with whom we
don't agree. I think it's extremely important. On this issue I wouldn't
ban him. I think he should be brought here for education. I rather
agree with what Cat said. Let him come here and see for himself that
what he was saying in the United States is complete rubbish. Can you
really class Donald Trump with religious extremists and war crim
naps? He is not the worst but I think he is certainly an extremist
-- criminals. His views are extremely offensive to many people
who are living here and they do nothing to try and achieve the type
of dialogue we need to achieve, particularly with Islam Nordtveit to
achieve world ksh - in order to achieve world peace. You were happy
to have the money invested in Scotland by Donald Trump? He invests
for his own benefit rather than anyone else. Scotland has
benefitted. A golf course and he has bought a hotel. They would be there
anywhere. Perhaps you shouldn't have taken the money if you wanted to ban
him. No one got the money, Jo. It's still investment in Scotland. It's
still investment. What's fascinating is there are people that share that
view. Both in this country and in the United States. You could be like
Jebb Bush and say Donald Trump is unhinged and it's a provocative
statement, where does it get you? I want to know where that statement
has traction. Maybe it's been inartfully presented and yes, I
agree, I think it's racist or insulting, but there are people with
fears. We need to discuss that issue, not just from his point of
view, but again from the angle of the constituencies. What are charnss
of him winning the nomination - chances Originally it was sort of
like the chances of a celluloid cat chasing a mouse through hell. It's
conceivable, very small, but, you know what, no one knows. I talk to
friends in DC and we are all totally confused by this. The rules have
been rewritten. Let's see what happens. Yeah. We will get you back
on snoochlt it will be interesting. Thank you very much. -- We will get
you back on. It will be interesting. There's just time before we go
to find out the answer to our quiz. The question was: what is
the Parliamentary expenses watchdog considering as a replacement for
MPs' rental properties in London? A) student-style halls of residence
b) house boats on the Thames c) Battersea power station or d)
the Hilton on Park Lane Does anyone Anyone know the answer? I am afraid
not. Trump hotel? All of them sound more expensive than the current
arrangement. It's actually the student halls. Would you like to be
in student-style accommodation? The South Bank apartments are pretty
much that anyway. You know, do you? My London home is no expense to the
taxpayer. That's a no then. I don't pay for my accommodation either so I
am not sure. The One o'clock News is starting
over on BBC One now. Andrew and I will be back
here at 11.30am tomorrow for the first PMQs of 2016
and all the big political stories