05/01/2016 Daily Politics


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Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics,


The BBC has learnt that David Cameron is to allow his


ministers to campaign for - or against - Britain remaining


The Prime Minister's expected to make the announcement later today.


But Ministers will only be able to break ranks once the UK has


completed renegotiating its relationship with the EU.


Jeremy Corbyn is in the midst of reshuffling his cabinet.


The shadow cultural secretary has already been shown the door.


There's been speculation he would sack several prominent


politicians who don't share all his views on policy.


Should Donald Trump be barred from entering the UK?


Our Ellie's been testing the mood on the streets.


Nothing wrong with a bit of inflammatory now and again just


And with 2016 set to be another bumper political year,


I am here to tell you who will be first past the post in the London


mayoral election, whether or not we will see a photo


finish agreement for the EU referendum, and who the hot odds-on


favourite is to be the next president of the United States.


All that in the next hour and with us for the duration former


Conservative International Development Secretary,


The Shadow Women and Equalities Minister,


Cat Smith, and SNP MP, Tommy Sheppard.


Now, first today to Europe because the BBC understands


David Cameron will allow members of his Cabinet to campaign on either


He's expected to make the announcement later this


afternoon, he's certainly due in the Commons at 3.30


to bring MPs up to speed on his EU renegotiation efforts.


David Cameron hopes to reach a final deal on renegotiation at the next EU


This could pave the way for a referendum as early as June.


But September is also a possibility as is a vote early in 2017.


There are a number of tricky issues still to be addressed.


Crucially, David Cameron has to reach an agreement with the rest


of the 28 states that make up the European Union.


This is easier said than done - EU President Donald Tusk says member


states are "far from agreement on several topics".


Some of the Prime Minister's demands such as banning EU migrants


from receiving in-work tax credits for four years


are proving particularly controversial.


But, assuming Cameron reaches a deal, the BBC expects Cabinet


ministers to be allowed to campaign to leave the EU


The Justice Secretary Michael Gove and Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond


have both said they would be prepared to vote no.


Home Secretary Theresa May has also left the door open to backing


Will he have to resign if Britain votes to leave the EU after leading


The Labour party say they will make the case for continued


membership of the EU, whatever the outcome


But they won't whip MPs to support their party line -


so there's potential for Shadow Cabinet splits too.


Let's speak now to BBC Five Live's Chief Political Correspondent,


John, why has this happens now? David Cameron is following through


on promises that he has given in private to senior sceptics for some


while, I don't think he realistically had a choice but to


take this step. It would have been a big shock and story if he decided


not to do it. If he tried to keep all of his ministers in line,


batting in favour of continued membership, whatever happens in


these negotiations, there was a real risk of resignations. We would be


looking at the likes of Iain Duncan Smith and Chris Grayling. It could


all unravel very, very quickly. David Cameron and his party will


have a big enough problem keeping his party united through the


process. This is dealing with a wound before it opens up. A sign of


weakness? Assignable realism. He recognises, as we all can see, that


there are deep in divisions in the Tory party. This was an accident


waiting to happen. There were senior ministers who were looking to


getting out of Europe. David Cameron has forced it all. Whatever happens


after this, David Cameron has a job to do. If the boat is to get out of


the EU, the question of David Cameron's survival becomes an issue.


Do you think some members of the Cabinet who may indeed campaign to


come out of the EU, do you see any of them leading that campaign? That


remains to be seen. We await to see who urges in the front and centre.


What we will see are the likes of potentially Iain Duncan Smith, Chris


Grayling, out there from the moment the deal is signed. That can happen


as early as a couple of weeks' time. There may be a deal in February that


is agreed by David Cameron. At this point, every bet is off and they can


go their own way. And we're joined now by the UKIP


MP, Douglas Carswell. Welcome back. Andrew, was that the


right decision? Yes, it was, and it was the obvious decision to take. It


means we all support the Prime Minister on his renegotiation,


collective responsibility continues. Once the deal is on the table for


the British public to decide, every member of Parliament can follow


their conscience and the collective responsibility ends. I got all this


grey hair from being a government whip drawing the Maastricht crisis


and I have seen what you can do, where you try to end the position


and it breaks. -- during. This is the right decision if this is what


he announces this afternoon, and it is not just in the party interest in


Britain's interest. It shows David Cameron could not hold his cabinet


together on a line here supporting. He is accepting that there are very


different views within his Cabinet. Quite rightly, he is allowing


members of his Cabinet to express those views. Not now while


negotiations are going on... Why has he announced it now? Because you


have been announcing these questions. -- asking these


questions. Is it pressure from the media? It is the realistic decision


to take and it reflect this and recognises the depth of this issue,


and this is a referendum on his renegotiation where everybody can


vote as their conscience dictate. Douglas, are you pleased? Is it a


boost for your campaign? I am pleased that we could be six months


away from a referendum and we have a chance to win it. There is real


momentum. There was a realignment in the Conservative Party with senior


figures preparing to come out and campaign to leave. People in Labour


are preparing to leave. Business leaders, opinion is shifting in


favour of leaving. It is incredibly exciting. There was a broad-based


opinion. It is very exciting. Douglas Carswell has mentioned the


Labour Party as well. If you have big figures like Theresa May all


backing an EU exit, it is a big blow for the campaign to stay in the EU.


The Conservative Party will always be split on Europe and Cameron was


between a rock and a hard place and had to give the MPs his free vote.


That will give its momentum. I don't expect any big beasts from Labour


will campaign alongside Douglas in this referendum. When I was a


Conservative backbench MP I got to know Jeremy Corbyn who was a


backbencher. I kept on bumping into him in the voting lobby when we


voted against the consensus of David Cameron Ancona. Will Jeremy Corbyn


vote to come out? There is an ambivalent relationship between the


corporatist cartel in Brussels. How can it be that the left in this


country is putting the interests of bankers ahead of working people in


Europe? Nobody has said that the EU is a perfect institution which we


support. We are saying that it is better for British workers to be in


the EU then out of it because it is through the EU that many of the


rights we have one for maternity pay and leave, workers' writes, all of


these right... Is it ambivalent? What you are getting here is a


preview of the debate on the renegotiation which will take place


in the months before the referendum but everybody in our country who is


over the aged abode can listen to the argument -- over the age of


consent can vote. You are also in favour of the EU staying in the EU.


There is an assumption that Scotland is overwhelmingly pro-EU. What is


your evidence that? That is what the polls suggest. The polls are mixed.


The polls suggest 72% of people want to stay within the EU. We want


reforms and a better EU but we can do that from the position of being


in rather than out. You ask whether this was the right decision that


David Cameron was going to take stock it is the right decision for


the Tories but not for the country. The premise that is putting his


party before the country and it is time he showed some leadership in


this. He seems to have given up the prospect of getting a deal in these


discussions with his European partners. That is a ridiculous


position for the Prime Minister to be in before he has even concluded


his discussions. What do you say? There isn't enough for those who are


already Euro-sceptic to actually support? I don't agree with Tommy.


The fact is that the Prime Minister is an extremely good negotiator. His


political opponents would say that. What are you expecting him to get?


You have to wait until he concludes his negotiations. I worked closely


with him for seven and a half years and he is the most Euro-sceptic


Prime Minister that I have known in my 30 odd years in politics. He will


get a good deal. The EU is flat on its back. There has never been a


lesser appetising time for the EU. Look at the EU, Greece, the stagnant


economy, the euro, he will have to do a deal to get Britain into a


better place and I believe he will do. He wouldn't campaign to come


out, would he? I expect him to be successful on the negotiation. It is


not a secret negotiation, everyone is revealing how it is going and I


expect him to be successful. You said he's the most Euro-sceptic


Prime Minister, would there be a situation where he campaigns to come


out? Let us wait and see the results of the negotiations, I am not


dealing with hypothetical situations. I expect him to


negotiate a successful deal. He is an opportunity to renegotiate our


relationship with Europe but the negotiations are reduced to try and


say that Polish owners cannot claim benefits, it is pathetic. -- Polish


plumbers. It has been watered down and watered-down and what we have


seen is a dilutive version of a agenda which has never been


seriously considered. -- undiluted. There is not much time left. He


should be united behind his former colleagues. Let's talk about Douglas


Carswell and being unified. What is going on with you and Nigel Farage?


We had a season of goodwill but there has been a spat between the


two of you, is it resolved? I have made my views clear and I will not


articulate them again. I was Frank. You want a fresh face? I was asked


on the strategic direction of Ukip and I have articulated that but this


is about the EU. Does it help if you have two lead campaigns to start


with? We interviewed Nigel Farage and he said that you will have to


put up or shut up. I am involved in the league campaign, and Nigel is


involved in the other campaign. -- leave. It is sensible for Ukip to be


backing both forces in a two horse race. Only one campaign will get


additional designation. Imagine a scenario where the SNP had managed


to isolate itself on the official independence campaign, of course we


want to be involved in both campaigns but the electoral


commission will designate one of them and we want to make sure we are


working closely with the officially designated campaign. Have you spoken


to Nigel Farage over Christmas? Not on the phone. What has happened? He


said that we cannot have one individual to give an impression


that Ukip is divided when actually it is very united. On the issue of


the EU referendum, we are united. We do have a common position in wanting


to leave the EU and we are campaigning with the two campaigns.


It is bizarre that you and Nigel Farage are in two different


campaigns. Are you staying within Ukip? Have you had discussions about


withdrawing? I am 100% Ukip and committed to them. And to Nigel


Farage? Nigel is doing a great job. We are 17% in the opinion polls but


I want is to be on 37%. In order to do this... In two years' time, I


don't want us to be on 70% but on 27%. There are some useful


suggestions I can make. Are you not going to say anything more? No. Do


you regret it? I very rarely regret anything. This could be one of them.


The important thing is that we will have this referendum and I think we


will win. Have you got anywhere with the


campaign requiring all four nations must vote to withdraw from the EU if


that's to pass? Well, we put the argument. Hasn't got anywhere, has


it? The Government refuses to listen to the argument. The idea of there


being a... It's rejecting it. Rejecting it out of hand because


there are many examples where a double majority is required for a


decision to be taken. The United States of America being in its


constitutional amendments being the most obvious one. I think the


problem in not allowing it is that there is a potential major


constitutional headache on the way if... Why? If Scotland votes in


large part to stay in the European Union, and England votes with an


equally large majority to leave, then I think there is going to be a


lot of anger in Scotland about being dragged out of the EU against the


will of the people that live in Scotland. Would that propell you


into campaigning for another referendum? Independence referendum


It would beg a question to which independence would be one answer but


it would need a lot of soul-searching if that takes place


and it will throw up a constitutional crisis. The poll of


polls put the remain in the EU campaign ten points ahead, as we


know from the most recent general election, polls polls, relying on


them, is a risky business. What will you be doing, what will Labour be


doing to encourage people to vote to remain? Labour's been very clear


from the outset here that we want to remain part of a reformed EU You are


going to remain come what may, that's clear? We will do that by


arguing that being in the EU is better for British workers and


British families and that we are all better off being active members of


the EU and playing a part in it. What's your evidence for that? What


are the figures that you have for saying that families are better off


within the EU, the British workers? Look at the investment the EU makes


in the UK, engs in the example, for instance, in Scotland, where the EU


supports a lot of businesses there. Outside of London and the south-east


where politics and the media tend to be quite focussed, the EU is


investing in our regions. We are net contributors, aren't we? There is an


EU fund that we could be applying to... Your local MP could lobby


their own Government. I am doing. David Cameron is refusing to engage


with the EU so that we are not getting all out that we already can.


You say there is momentum but the poll of polls just for arguments


sake does put the Recampaign campaign ten points ahead, we


haven't heard from the renegotiation deal. There is a European-wide


migration crisis. Terrorism across the continent. You might think leave


would be doing better and they're not. I was looking at some polls


recently that put the two camps neck-and-neck. We need to be


sceptical, you are right. Momentum is with Leave. We saw senior


business figures today, opinion shifting. Many of the undecideds who


are going to decide the outcome are making thaup their mind and that we


would be better off out. You are confident David Cameron should get a


good deal, should he resign if he loses this referendum? Again it's


entirely hypothetical question. It's not, it's potentially happening in a


few months? I expect him to successfully renegotiate Britain's


position. Should he resign... If he does so successfully I expect him to


win. And what Cat said is right, people will decide on the basis of


their living standards, what's best for their family. But this is going


to be a tight debate. I think that the two campaigns are neck-and-neck.


We are going to see the result of negotiations and then everyone makes


up their mind. Thank you for telling us that.


Parliament's expenses watchdog is considering a further crackdown


But what is IPSA considering as a replacement for rental


Is it a) student-style halls of residence b) house boats


on the Thames c) Battersea power station or d) the Hilton on Park


Although other hotels are available.


of the show our MPs will give us the correct answer!


We are saying goodbye to you at this stage. Lovely to be here.


It's the reshuffle that seems to have gone on for rather a long


But this lunchtime we'll finally be getting details


of who is in and who is out of Jeremy Corbyn's new look Shadow


Let's talk now to a man who knows what's going on,


the BBC's Assistant Editor, Norman Smith.


You are laughing, I am not filled with confidence! This has been the


longest reshuffle in history with not that much going on. Is Jeremy


Corbyn talking to every member of the Labour Party before he moves


anyone? I was laughing because you suggested we might have some details


by lunchtime. I doubt it because we now discover that the Shadow Cabinet


meeting scheduled for quarter to one has been cancelled. Why? Because


Jeremy Corbyn does not have a new Shadow Cabinet so that meeting will


take place we do not know when, sometime later this afternoon. This


is a reshuffle which has now been going on for more than 24 hours, so


far only one person has been ousted, that's the Shadow Culture Secretary


Michael Dugher. In a way not surprising because he has been a


public critic of Jeremy Corbyn. What is surprising is the response to his


sacking because a whole series of senior Shadow Cabinet ministers have


issued statements backing Michael Dugher saying what a terrific member


of the Cabinet he is, how he manages to reach out to northern


working-class voters, what a loss he will be to the Shadow Cabinet and


that from figures like Andy Burnham, Tom Watson, some of the big beasts


in the Shadow Cabinet. My sense is where we are now, Jeremy Corbyn


finds himself hemmed in. He can't do what he wants to do, which is move


Hilary Benn and move Maria Eagle because he knows if he does that he


faces a Shadow Cabinet revolt and resignations. Where we are heading,


eventually, I think, is towards not a revenge reshuffle, but potentially


a damp squib reshuffle. In the end Jeremy Corbyn realised he didn't


have the power or strength to do what he wanted to do, in your mind?


Yeah, I think he will present it as underlining how he is willing to


listen to different voices, he is not going to carry out some ruthless


sort of purge. The reality, I think, is this, there are people around him


who want him to seize this moment in the wake of the Oldham by-election,


in the wake even of the Syria vote when something like 70% of the party


backed him, they want him to seize this moment and they think he lacks


the steel, the ruthlessness to get rid of some of his dissidents and


critics in the Shadow Cabinet. He, however - he likes to discuss


things. He likes to talk things through. He likes to reach consensus


and I think by inclination he does not want to be in the position of


having to shove people out the door, never mind the threat of


resignations which there almost certainly would be and a clear


warning from the Chief Whip that if he did that the Shadow Cabinet would


implode because there would be a London of -- a load of Ministers who


would say right, we are out of here. We will leave you there for what may


turn out to be a long afternoon! And with us now former


Shadow Chancellor, Chris Leslie. Welcome back. Would you describe


this as a revenge reshuffle or a purge? Michael Dugher said it would


be wrong to have a revenge reshuffle and look what's happened to him, I


am not sure why he has been reshuffled, what exactly his sin


was. I think he was very effective in opposing the Government and


opposing the Conservatives. I don't think removing him makes Labour's


chances of winning any greater. I am afraid that there is a sort of


natural impetus amongst the hard-left who want to tighten their


control, they want to sideline moderate voices when they have the


chance to do so. It looks as though it might be more incremental. We


don't know the time-scale of this particular reshuffle. I don't think


anybody should be surprised about that is the nature of the hard-left.


You built this up. You and some of your, as you describe them moderate


colleagues, have obviously been briefing about this revenge


reshuffle, this purge that you feared. It's not happening. We don't


know because the reshuffle is going on and on. Obscuring a lot of very


good campaigning that people were doing on rail fares, the housing


bill in the House of Commons. The Government has tried to hide beneath


this news of the reshuffle, a major change on European referendum


policy. What we should be doing, of course, is appealing to the wider


public and listening to what the public's views are. This is all


before we even get to some of the economic and fiscal issues where


according to a poll yesterday only 18% of the public, apparently, have


confidence in the current front bench view when it comes to the


economy. What was wrong with Michael Dugher I think Jeremy Corbyn as


leader of the Labour Party is within his rights to pick the people that


he wants to serve in his Shadow Cabinet. If he doesn't want people


in the Shadow Cabinet who spend more time attacking the Labour Party


leadership than the Tory benches opposite us, he is perfectly within


his rights to do that. I think Jeremy is -- Jeremy is in a wrong


position, we ended 2015 on a strong note, we pshed back on credits and


police cuts and he is trying to realign the top team to match more


what the PLP is and the party. I think the current Shadow Cabinet,


frankly, is to the right of where the PLP is. If you look for instance


on the vote on Syria, more Labour MPs voted with Jeremy Corbyn than


with Hilary Benn. You would expect him to move Hilary Benn You just


said you wanted him to realign. If he was realigning he would move


Hilary Benn because he holds a contradictory position on air


strikes. He would be moving Maria Eagle from Shadow defence because


she doesn't agree with the view on Trident, so he has bottled it The


reshuffle hasn't finished yet. Would you be disappointed if that doesn't


happen I won't be disappointed with anything that comes out of this


reshuffle. It's a minor change, it's not a full reshuffle. It's not


all-out. I regret the fact you have said what you said about Michael


Dugher and saying he was attacking more time on the - he is an


effective communicators when it comes to an effective fighting force


against appalling right-wing changes. I hope he continues to do


that from the back benches. I don't think it was right to have


characterised Michael in that way. His sin, I think, was to dare to


have different views and we know that the hard-left famously cannot


tolerate any dissident. Who are the hart-left, Chris Is it Cat? A lot of


people are in the ascendency within the Labour Party who associate with


the hard-left. I am a Labour MP, I am proud to be Labour and I am


assuming you feel the same. I got elected as a Labour MP. You said we


were too right-wing. Not to fight internally. It's right that Jeremy


Corbyn has a team around him he trusts. Absolutely. He can't be an


effective leader... He didn't trust Michael Dugher? He is either having


a realignment or not. To put to you, Michael Dugher did describe momentum


as stupid and that's the grass roots organisation, not just of Labour


Party members but others. Is that the sort of language that will help


this integration to stop this in-fighting within Labour? We all


care about Labour winning in the future and if we end up with a


hard-left agenda, whether it's printing money, whether it's


nationalisation without compensation, whatever it happens to


be, the public will take a view on that and I don't know what you think


about the opinion poll that put Labour at 18% of trust. They'll have


to take a pinch of salt after the last general election. A lot of


people are in marginal seats, yourself included, we have to start


not just listening to those who feel strongly about a hard-left wing


position but want to listen to the wider public. If we see people like


Maria Eagle, for example, being sidelined because she cares about a


strong defence for our country, I think that would be massively


regrettable. I hope it doesn't happen. We will see how this pans


out. This is what the Labour Party has become, this in-fighting with


two different factions when there are issues that people are worried


about, whether it's the economy, whether it's flooding, whether it is


air strikes in Syria and this is all we have had from the Labour Party.


As a party, we will have debate within, there is no Labour MP I


agree with 100%. There is the same for Chris, as well. We are a


coalition of people who come together around the values that the


country... You are not coming together, are you? Internally we


will S have these discussions. Do you think Jeremy Corbyn is going to


lead Labour to victory in 2020? It's so far away. I worry that the way we


are going is moving away from electability, I hope that we can


wake up and realise the public looking at this, they want to hear


about campaigning on flooding, what's happening on housing bill,


the European referendum, but all they see is a sort of narrowing


view, the sort of disdainful hard-left focussing inWardley,


rather than engaging with the wider public on things they care about.


That's my anxiety. What do you say to that I would say that this week


we have been campaigning on the railways. Nobody's heard it. We have


and I have been doing it and you have been doing it. Where have the


public not heard of it We moved our policy position to something that's


closer to where the public are than what we had previously. If you ask


the public they would like to see railways back in public ownership,


is that hard-left? What do you say when you view this


going on? You have experience with the Labour Party. In one sense, this


debate is less relevant because the Labour Party has been replaced by


the centre-left party, the SNP. I do think the people of England need a


centre-left alternative. Who represents that? It is sad that is


not there at the moment. Two things need to happen. All of us have


witnessed in the House of Commons the most amazing infighting going on


within the Labour benches and as an observer it seems to be a tax on the


current leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, rather than attacks from Jeremy


Corbyn. The people on Chris's wing of the party needs to recognise and


respect that Jeremy Corbyn has a mandate to be leader but Jeremy


Corbyn also need to show some leadership. There has been a lot of


pussyfooting around, indecision, not whipping decisions, not seeking


backing on certain things, that needs to stop and he needs to start


acting like a leader and get respect from all wings of the party to be


able to do it. Do you think you will get it? I do not have the patience


of some of those who have stuck it out in the Shadow Cabinet. It is not


right to sit by and see good colleagues being sacked. Michael was


the only one we know about so far. They are good colleagues who care


about Labour winning and campaigning, and have been


disparaged as somehow wanting to attack Labour its self, rather than


fighting to win a general election. What are you going to do about it? I


think it is important that those of us who do believe in a moderate


centre-left Labour Party fight strongly for that and I am vocal for


that. At this stage, the hard left needs to be prepared for that. How


we going to fight for that? Let's see how the reshuffle goes stop are


you going to challenge Jeremy Corbyn and the hard left? Wants to focus on


getting the Labour Party into tip top shape and appealing to the


general public. Andrew Mitchell? May I make two points? Firstly, any


party that is seriously considering replacing somebody of the character


and quality of Hilary Benn is not in a good place, particularly given


some of the names suggested stop he does not agree with the leader. In


the end, Jeremy Corbyn has to take position of his party or he will be


buffeted around on the waves and that is why I have some sympathy


with Cat. Thank you for the advice. Thank you.


Now, 2016 could be a humdinger of a political year.


Are the bookies hoping for a bumper crop of bets?


Earlier, I spoke to Alex Donnahue from Ladbrokes.


I began by asking him if the odds on the EU referendum were still very


close between the leave and remain camps?


If the referendum does take place this year,


we say it is the even money favourite that the UK votes to stay,


If the referendum does happen this year, those are the odds,


and we say it is a 50-50 chance that we will stay put


The bets to leave are the ones that are definitely shortening.


Those odds are around 3/1 this time last year.


Those odds are coming in all the time.


My prediction would be that as soon as we get an announcement


of the year or date those odds will get shorter still.


Let's have a look at the mayoral election also this year.


Labour have got Sadiq Khan, there are other candidates of course


but how does it look between those two?


That is another one where we make pretty much a coin toss


although Sadiq Khan is the odds-on favourite at 8/11.


Zac Goldsmith just behind at 11/10 , so we are saying that Sadiq Khan


is the narrow but odds-on favourite to become the Mayor


What about the future of the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn?


There had been plenty of speculation that he might be replaced before


2020, how was it looking from your side?


I should say that he is odds-on to actually survive until 2020.


Those who think there will be a reshuffle this year


A controversial figure in the USA, what are the odds on him or anybody


He is the second favourite to become the next president at 4/1.


Those odds were really long not so long ago, 100/1, 200/1.


I should add that he is even shorter at 2/1 to visit the UK this year.


I'm not sure too many people would be pleased to see that


but as far as the other candidates are concerned,


Hillary Clinton, odds-on favourite 4/6, and for the Republicans,


Marco Rubio, 11/2, Ted Cruz, 8/1 and Bernie Sanders at 16/1


if he does get the Democratic nomination.


Let's come closer to home and talk about the local elections coming


What are the chances of Ukip winning seats in Wales?


We think they have a decent chance of picking up a handful of seats


in Wales, maybe eight or maybe nine, but to get ten, that is 3/1.


And the Scottish Nationalist Party, they did extremely


What about this year's Holyrood elections?


They did indeed and a clean sweep is 7/2.


Let's talk to the Guardian's Polly Toynbee and Sam Coates


Happy New Year to both of you. Looking good. Sam, who is going to


fare best in the May elections? I think London will be the biggest


thing, the Westminster bubble. At the moment, it feels like Siddique


Khan is narrowly ahead. We had interviews with both Zac Goldsmith


and Siddique Khan and Zac Goldsmith put in a curiously poor performance


on the radio this morning, sanding unsure of himself on delicate


allegations against Sadiq Khan. He has been around a while and it feels


like he is likely in front. The Zac Goldsmith campaign backed by his


company, they are going to throw everything at this. It is close but


it feels like Labour are in with a chance. However, that might not be


altogether good news for the wider Labour Party if it means Jeremy


Corbyn can claim a win and thereby solidify his position as Labour


leader because many will look at the elections and whether or not Labour


is dragged down by its current leader or whether in fact that's he


is an electoral liability. Holly, how do you see it in terms of the


key elections? Is it true that if Khan winds for Labour then that will


just lend power to Jeremy Corbyn? It looks like Khan will win. Labour is


extraordinarily strong in London, getting stronger all the time.


London is almost the Labour heartland. Khan, the son of a bus


driver coming he is Mr London. His experience as a politician will


show. Zac Goldsmith is a newcomer, a beginner, not terribly good at it.


Will it affect the views of Jeremy Corbyn? I don't think Khan will be


dragged down by Jeremy Corbyn's lack of popularity and I don't dig it


will show that Jeremy Corbyn is a great success. Labour can win all


kinds of elections, locally around country. Unaffected for good or bad


by Jeremy Corbyn. The Conservative leadership contest. Now we know that


David Cameron is not going to stand again, and depending on what happens


with the EU referendum which could be as early as June, it would be


surprising if there was not already some pretty clear jostling for


position other than what we know. Yes, the preplanning for this has


begun in earnest and there are conversations about it. The Times


had a big hole about this last week and we found it is pretty much neck


and neck among Tory voters. -- poll. What was interesting was what was


going on with the wider public which showed Boris Johnson comfortably out


in front, Theresa May in second and George Osborne in third. The numbers


suggest that while Boris Johnson is the Heineken politician, George


Osborne is whatever the opposite of that is not a dry white wine


politician! Doesn't translate very well among Labour voters or Ukip


voters or Lib Dem voters, so really his popularity is in that narrow


Tory Brecon and that might be enough to get across the line but it might


also worry conservatives that he does not have that appeal despite


months and months of presenting himself as a man of the working


people, the man of the Northern Powerhouse, that is not shifted the


public attitudes towards him. He has a bit of time but people have


already made up their minds. What is the opposite of a Heineken


politician? Give us analogy on that. George Osborne's chancers will hinge


on the economy performance. We have two remember that the most important


being to happen in Britain for a long time is the EU referendum. --


chances. It decides the fate of this nation for ever and it could be


catastrophic if we pull out stop if George Osborne put his shoulder to


the wheel and failed or only just scraped past in getting Britain to


remain then I think he will look quite weak. If on the other hand


Caroline Osborne got 65% and put it to bed for ever to end the ludicrous


rift in the Tory party, sending the other side away with their tail


between their legs, then I think he is in a strong position. A lot of it


depends on winning this most important battle, far more important


than any internal warfare is in either party. Finally, there is talk


about Scotland. The SNP could do even better this time round than


last time. It does feel like they are in a commanding position and the


big danger for Scotland is the Labour Party. People are talking


down here about the need for Labour to make progress in the May


elections and showing that the beginning to claw back some of the


territory from the in Scotland but there is no sign that is working.


Nicola Sturgeon appears like a Teflon politician and if you see


Labour facing another catastrophic defeat in May then the chances are


that the moderate politicians will also fall by the wayside, and then I


think one of Jeremy Corbyn's analyses will come in and take her


place, meaning that the Scottish Labour Party is pretty much a Jeremy


Corbyn entity. We saw some polls that they would narrowly votes for


Jeremy Corbyn if there was an election immediately and the SNP is


now behind the leader if Labour does catastrophically in May. What


evidence is there of any recovery by Labour in Scotland? We make no bones


about it, it will be a challenging collection for Labour in Scotland


and we have a long way to come back from the general election defeat


where we were almost wiped out by the SNP. Nothing has changed? We


have to give it time and we earn the trust of voters in Scotland, and


that will not happen overnight stop I will be out in Scotland,


campaigning, knocking on doors, with my party and it will be a slog. We


can come back but it will take time. Is cosier the right leader? She is a


fantastic leader of the SNP. I am happy to do forcer -- I am happy to


support. -- Kezia. Should there be a bar? It is going to be challenging


and as I am not Scottish myself I will not set any bars. In a way,


will and SNP victory be equal to or better to last time round then give


you a mandate? We probably won't be seeking a referendum on independence


in the election, that is not part of the manifesto. Would it


kick-start... One thing we will see in our


kick-start... One thing we will see powers and authority coming north of


the border and the Scottish Government having more control to


shape the lives of people in Scotland. In that sense, there is


unfinished business from the last referendum, and it will be for the


government to decide how it responds to the wishes of the people in the


SNP does get the majority. We do intend to fight for every single


vote, we take nothing for granted in this election. What has the SNP


achieved so far at Westminster? We provided a strong voice for


Scotland's... What has been achieved, policy? The SNP won the


election in 56 out of 65 seat in May but we did not foresee the type of


government that we have seen in England. In those circumstances, it


is difficult to actually achieve things but there are certainly many


aspects in which our resistance with others has been part of the process


of making the government run away from debates, whether that be the


Human Rights Act, the timing of the EU referendum or the tax credit


issue. The independence referendum, Nicola Sturgeon kick-started the SNP


election bid and said the SNP has a special responsibility to lead a


renewed debate about independence, do you agree? Would be a platform


for another Scotland is now much more relaxed


after the referendum as a country. It's heading on a journey which I


think will lead to independented pence. One of the interesting...


When? One of the interesting opinion poll questions is if you ask people


do they think they'll see independence in their lifetime and a


clear majority, 60%-plus, of people say yes to that question. It's now


seen as a natural state of affairs, rather than a far off distapt dream.


Is it a natural state of affairs, people might say now seize the


opportunity, the SNP may never as popular as now in Scotland, why


wouldn't you go for it? It's not even been 18 months since we had a


thorough referendum and thorough examination of this question and we


respected the decision that was taken. Although we would point out


that one of the reasons why a lot of people voted against independence is


because they were made promise that is have not been kept. It's part of


our job to try and make sure those promises are kept and to advance the


cause of independence And perhaps use powers you already have at your


disposal? Yes and to get more powers we can do more. There hasn't been a


demonstration of what you have done with the powers so far. If you ask


people who don't have to pay tuition fees, or people who are sick don't


have to pay for medicine... Delays on the Forth Bridge, are thee things


you have achieved? Which one will I talk about? Let's start with


admissions. The health service in Scotland, we obviously need to do


more and there is room for improvement we are achieving the 95%


target on waiting times... That wasn't the target you set. 95% was


the target. I thought it was 98%. The target was 95% and that's being


achieved. What about delays to the Forth Road Bridge, closed for weeks


and the budget cut. The reason it was closed was not to do with that.


Labour tried to make a point on that and had to retract quickly on it.


The bridge is an old structure, 50 years old this year. It's coming to


the end of its life. These are things you have power to do


something about. The Scottish Government took a safety first


attitude, we closed the bridge. Put be public safety first and we were


able to get it open ahead of schedule. It was delayed and


suddenly it was announced it would be early. The ferry crossing is


under budget and ahead of schedule in construction. Has flood defence


been reduced? Not as much as England and Wales It's been reduced and


communities in Scotland have had the most dreadful time over Christmas


and new year, was that a wise decision? There are warnings that


rivers are still rising in Aberdeenshire tonight. We need to


look and see if there is enough being put in to flood defence. There


is a cut of 6% in the budget. However, George Osborne is planning


a cut of 30%. These are things that you have the powers to do something


about. We don't set the overall Scottish budget, that's set by


George Osborne. Tldz but there are things you can do. I am trying to go


through some issues. Free education, free medicine. In terms of the next


Conservative leader, the starting gun has been fired, there are going


to be members of the Cabinet to campaign on the referendum. Who


would you put your money on? There are two outstanding candidates, one


is George Osborne and the other is Boris Johnson. Who is your favourite


Both have tremendous qualities. The Labour Party can only dream of


having two candidates of that sort of calibre. Only one can be the next


leader. The point that your intelligent and clever journalists


were making about the leadership election was not taking sufficient


account of the fact that the parliamentary party decide on the


last two and of course within parliament George Osborne is very,


very dominant. He is almost certain to get on to the ballot paper. The


question is who else will get on to the ballot paper with him and the


public, members of the Conservative Party will choose between those two.


That's a factor which I don't think Sam sufficiently put into his


calculations. Who would you like to be the next leader It's too early to


say. Both are strong, appealing candidates, not just within the


Conservative Party but widely across the country. Do you think it was a


mistake by David Cameron to announce he wasn't going to stand next time.


That's what everything will be about, post the referendum, whatever


the result No, it was an extremely clever to do. It avoids the terrible


problems that Tony Blair had within his parliamentary party. Making it


clear means he owes no one anything. He can reshuffle as he sees fit and


everyone knows when he is going. No one is agitating to get rid of him.


That may change after the EU referendum depending on what


happens. In terms... I don't think it will actually. He said when he is


going to go, by the end of this parliament. The Tory Party owes


David Cameron a huge debt. Can he really stay on and serve a full


term? Surely whatever happens with the EU referendum once that result


is clear there will be a case for him to step down before. That's a


matter for him and no one in the Conservative Party really believes


it's a matter for anyone else. How worried about the economy, slowing


down in terms of growth and impact here That's the central issue in


this parliament, it's whether we can sustain the British economy doing


better than other European economies, creating an extraordinary


number of new jobs, really boosting and lifting living standards,


getting young people into work. Those are the real issues which


people want to see us deliver on and that's our challenge. Thank you.


More than half a million Brits have signed a petition demanding


Donald Trump be banned from entering the UK.


Later today the Parliamentary Peitions Committee meets


and will decide whether or not parliament should debate just that.


Welcome to the first moodbox of 2016.


Now a few weeks ago a certain US presidential hopeful said he thought


all Muslims should be barred from entering the USA.


A subsequent petition here said he should be barred


So what better place to ask people than here?


Should Donald Trump be allowed in or kept out of Britain?


What he said is wrong, we don't have to listen to it,


but if we start blocking him then we'll be doing what he is doing


saying Muslims aren't allowed in the United States.


No, I don't know some of the statements he's making quite


fit the inclusive culture we would like to showcase


Celebrity personality on politics is something we should probably


Should we let him into the UK or not?


Well, unlike Donald Trump this street is pretty quiet so I think


we need to take the moodbox somewhere a bit busier.


# Nellie the elephant packed her trunk and said goodbye


# Off she went with a trumpety trump.


There is a few little crazies already in the UK, aren't there?


Yeah, but we don't want another one here really.


Nothing wrong with a bit of inflammatory now and again


# Off she went with a trumpety trump.


Screw Donald Trump, he is an abomination to America.


I think he speaks what a lot of people won't speak.


And, yes, I do actually feel he should be allowed in the country.


We let a lot of other people in and we never track them.


He is a bit of a toe-rag, to be honest.


A toe-rag, no one else has called him a toe-rag.


He is such an idiot, let's have a go at him.


The last time I checked around 550,000 people had signed


the petition saying that Donald Trump should not be


But then another 40,000 people signed a petition against that


petition saying he should be allowed in.


We didn't have anywhere near that many people for the moodbox


but there was an overwhelming majority that said Donald Trump


And we're joined now by the writer and broadcaster,


and Republican supporter, Charlie Wolf.


With that many on the petition shouldn't parliament discuss it? I


think it's already been discussed. We made statements. Listening to the


programme today and all the issues you were discussing, the floods,


Isil, Labour Party reshuffle, if it's happening or not happening, do


we really want to spend a morning discussing Donald Trump? It only


actually is what he would love. He thrives on publicity. A matter of


fact, if he has any problem, I don't know if it's number one or not, if


he is not number one he will think you are all stupid. As Donald Trump


would say. It's been done. What are you going to say that hasn't been


said? Let's ask them. Are you in favour of a debate on this? ? I am


more than happy to debate it in parliament, I hope the committee


allow us that opportunity. What would you say? We should have the


debate with him. He should come or shouldn't be barred We should show


him exactly how London is and it's not a place he believes it to be and


that communities live alongside each other and rub along fine. Should he


be allowed? ? I would probably say no. I don't think he should be


welcome here. Why not? Given statements about saying against


Muslims, for example, I think it's offensive to a large number of


British people. I don't think he should be allowed here. He could be


the next US President. When this guy is possibly elected and he is banned


from the country, you know, our closest ally? We will cross that


bridge when we come to it. Let's hope for the sanity of the world


that he is not elected. I hope the American people come to their senses


on that one and see through Trump. He is a nasty man peddling awful


ideas which are set to divide people and don't get to the heart of real


problems we face. Should that not be a question for debating with him


rather than barring him there are lots of other nasty people that we


do let into the UK? I am in favour of talking to people with whom we


don't agree. I think it's extremely important. On this issue I wouldn't


ban him. I think he should be brought here for education. I rather


agree with what Cat said. Let him come here and see for himself that


what he was saying in the United States is complete rubbish. Can you


really class Donald Trump with religious extremists and war crim


naps? He is not the worst but I think he is certainly an extremist


-- criminals. His views are extremely offensive to many people


who are living here and they do nothing to try and achieve the type


of dialogue we need to achieve, particularly with Islam Nordtveit to


achieve world ksh - in order to achieve world peace. You were happy


to have the money invested in Scotland by Donald Trump? He invests


for his own benefit rather than anyone else. Scotland has


benefitted. A golf course and he has bought a hotel. They would be there


anywhere. Perhaps you shouldn't have taken the money if you wanted to ban


him. No one got the money, Jo. It's still investment in Scotland. It's


still investment. What's fascinating is there are people that share that


view. Both in this country and in the United States. You could be like


Jebb Bush and say Donald Trump is unhinged and it's a provocative


statement, where does it get you? I want to know where that statement


has traction. Maybe it's been inartfully presented and yes, I


agree, I think it's racist or insulting, but there are people with


fears. We need to discuss that issue, not just from his point of


view, but again from the angle of the constituencies. What are charnss


of him winning the nomination - chances Originally it was sort of


like the chances of a celluloid cat chasing a mouse through hell. It's


conceivable, very small, but, you know what, no one knows. I talk to


friends in DC and we are all totally confused by this. The rules have


been rewritten. Let's see what happens. Yeah. We will get you back


on snoochlt it will be interesting. Thank you very much. -- We will get


you back on. It will be interesting. There's just time before we go


to find out the answer to our quiz. The question was: what is


the Parliamentary expenses watchdog considering as a replacement for


MPs' rental properties in London? A) student-style halls of residence


b) house boats on the Thames c) Battersea power station or d)


the Hilton on Park Lane Does anyone Anyone know the answer? I am afraid


not. Trump hotel? All of them sound more expensive than the current


arrangement. It's actually the student halls. Would you like to be


in student-style accommodation? The South Bank apartments are pretty


much that anyway. You know, do you? My London home is no expense to the


taxpayer. That's a no then. I don't pay for my accommodation either so I


am not sure. The One o'clock News is starting


over on BBC One now. Andrew and I will be back


here at 11.30am tomorrow for the first PMQs of 2016


and all the big political stories


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