19/01/2016 Daily Politics


19/01/2016

Jo Coburn is joined by Anglican priest and Guardian columnist Giles Fraser for the latest political news and debate from Westminster.


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Transcript


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Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.

:00:37.:00:38.

George Osborne warned that the UK faced a dangerous cocktail

:00:39.:00:41.

Well this morning China has reported its slowest rate of growth

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So what does a bumpy ride for the global economy mean for us

:00:48.:00:53.

The election result was a big surprise thanks to the opinion polls

:00:54.:01:05.

Sexual assaults in Cologne have tested the German government's

:01:06.:01:13.

response to the migrant crisis, what does it mean

:01:14.:01:15.

And as a survey seems to show that believing in no religion has become

:01:16.:01:28.

normal, we'll be talking about the rise of a church for atheists.

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All that in the next hour and with us for the whole

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of the programme today is Giles Fraser.

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He's a priest in south London, the former canon of St Paul's

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Cathedral, and has been described as the Church of England's "most

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Let's talk about the news that has broken in the last few minutes that

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the British Medical Association has announced it is to suspend the

:02:04.:02:07.

48-hour strike action planned for next week, over the proposed new

:02:08.:02:19.

contract the Junior doctors. Talks are continuing book on crack

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progress will have to be made if action for February is to be

:02:25.:02:29.

averted. We can talk to our correspondence Opie Richardson. Why

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have they called off the strike? They are still in talks, as I

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understand it. The NHS employers which represent the government and

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the British Medical Association which represent the doctors have

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been in talks since the first strike. We went into talks last week

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on Thursday. They were in talks on Friday, yesterday and today and then

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this news has come of the suspension of the strike planned for the 26th

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and 27th of January next week. This two day strike were only emergency

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care was going to be covered. We understand from the BMA they are

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hopeful some progress will be made. They have said they need significant

:03:13.:03:19.

progress on issues around safety and the other is issues around

:03:20.:03:23.

unsociable hours. But they said they wouldn't have suspended the strike

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unless they were hopeful that significant progress could be made.

:03:27.:03:31.

Yes, clearly, something must have been offered by the government in

:03:32.:03:36.

order for them to postpone it? The main sticking points, we don't know

:03:37.:03:44.

the ins and outs of the talks being held at Acas. But the main issues

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the doctors were troubled about, was the safety. They were concerned that

:03:52.:03:57.

fines for hospitals when they made junior doctors work over the safe

:03:58.:04:02.

hours, the maximum hours they are meant to work, were going to be

:04:03.:04:08.

removed. The BMA said that was unsafe and they wanted those to be

:04:09.:04:14.

kept in place. The other issue was around the unsocial hours, where

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doctors get extra for working unsocial hours, late at night and on

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Saturdays. So something in that area, obviously the BMA is hopeful

:04:26.:04:29.

they have found some kind of meeting point with the government taps? But

:04:30.:04:35.

that progress hasn't been made yet, they are still in negotiations and

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they are saying and less significant progress is made, the other strike

:04:39.:04:43.

planned for the 10th of February, which is an all-out strike, it is an

:04:44.:04:48.

historic strike where emergency care will not be covered wide junior

:04:49.:04:52.

doctors, that strike would go ahead. So that is the threat still looming.

:04:53.:04:59.

Thank you very much. Relief this has been postponed or called for the

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moment? Everybody will be relieved. Nobody wants to go into hospital on

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January the 26th and the Beano doctors. If they are working towards

:05:09.:05:15.

some settlement, very good indeed. I do feel sorry for the junior

:05:16.:05:27.

doctors. They need to push back to the government are doing. They are

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on the ground, they see what the problems are. I don't like the idea

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the government has them over a barrel and can do what it wants. Is

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this a big moment? Historically, junior doctors haven't gone on

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strike because of safety issues and care of patients. Yet it has still

:05:47.:05:52.

come to this, junior doctors out protesting, operations cancelled and

:05:53.:05:56.

the prospect of emergency cover not being in place. It is a big

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collision? I trust the junior doctors, they are on the ground and

:06:01.:06:06.

they know what is going on. They have a sense of issues of safety and

:06:07.:06:11.

what is workable. I trust the government less on this. I would

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hope the doctors are not being abused and safety will not be

:06:21.:06:24.

compromised because they are over a barrel and there is a moral pressure

:06:25.:06:29.

not to take industrial action. We will bring you any more news on that

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when we find out the reason, if there are any, the BMA have called

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OFT this strike. Because the one in February is still in place.

:06:40.:06:43.

Yesterday, MPs used valuable Parliamentary time to debate

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whether or not Donald Trump should be banned from entering the UK.

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to describe Mr Trump during the debate?

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Giles will give us the correct answer.

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First today, let's talk about the economy.

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The Chancellor George Osborne started the year by warning that

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slow Chinese growth, low commodity prices and tensions

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in the Middle East would be a "dangerous cocktail" for the UK

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And today we've had a series of economic indicators

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Figures released overnight show that Chinese growth fell to 6.9% last

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year - it doesn't sound too bad but it's the worst rate they've had

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The price of oil fell to as low as 27 dollars a barrel this morning

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because of oversupply and the slowdown in China and Europe

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- that's good news for motorists but is also a barometer

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for the overall health of the global economy.

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Speaking of which, the International Monetary Fund has

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downgraded its forecasts for global economic growth for this

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The IMF now predicts growth of 3.4 per cent this year and 3.6 per cent

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Monthly inflation figures released this morning showed inflation

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slightly up - 0.1 to 0.2%, as measured

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And that could mean the prospects of an interest rate rise

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from the historic low of 0.5% has receded even further -

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a subject being addressed by Mark Carney in a speech that's

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Well let's talk now to our business correspondent Simon Gompertz he's

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Not really a surprise, it could be kicked into 26 being -- 2017, and

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interest rise? Since the summer, Mark Carney said around about now,

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the decision on raising rates would come into sharper relief. What has

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come into sharp relief is he will not push rates up for the time

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being. So the question now is, when will they do it? I think the markets

:09:15.:09:20.

are expecting it will happen early next year, as you say. Others are

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still looking at the summer as a possibility. What we see here is a

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result of what he calls the global environment being on the giving

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economically and that has had a big effect on the UK. Whereas the United

:09:38.:09:40.

States has started pushing up interest rates and the economy there

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is more insulated against world events. We don't have that luxury if

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things aren't going well elsewhere, we feel the impact. Interest rates

:09:51.:09:56.

tend to go up when the economy starts recovering strongly, we're

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not there yet. We have spoken about this unforgiving global environment,

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tell us more about the impact of slowing Chinese growth and what it

:10:06.:10:10.

might do to our economy? The Chinese economy is growing at a rate of

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6.9%, which seems very high, but it is less than they hoped for. It is

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something that has been anticipated. The figure isn't surprising, it is

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just broadening this picture of the softening Chinese economy. I would

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like to pick out from that, steel production is down. The amount of

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electricity they generated power the Chinese economy is slightly down. So

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you can see the effect. There is a knock on the rest of the world. You

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mentioned the IMF, who also brought out the forecast. They have said the

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world economy could be derailed as a result of the slower growth in China

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and also worries about big emerging economies like is ill, who are

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having a difficult time and the knock-on effect on us.

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Well we're joined now by the Cabinet Office minister,

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One of the thing the government has spoken about is dumping of cheap

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steel which has effect did the industry here. Jobs have been lost.

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That is a major crisis, what action has the government taken to tackle

:11:25.:11:30.

it? It is a big challenge and it demonstrates the reality of these

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international risks. What we have done is make sure... We have changed

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the rules so when public projects are buying steel, they not only take

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into account its price, but also the impact on the local economy. It is a

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rule change we brought in a couple of months ago. It means we can look

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more broadly at the impact of where public projects by steel from. Why

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haven't you cut dismiss rates for the steel industry? We have brought

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in a package to help those with high energy bills. The industry has been

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calling for that for months, saying if you do that it will help combat

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this cheap steel coming in gesture marked you can cut business rates

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like any other tax cut... You haven't been prepared to do that to

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help the steel industry? It is unfair because you have picked just

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one specific measure. The industry has been calling for the government

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to do it? We have made the changes the industry have called for and we

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are in dialogue all the time with what else we can do to help. I met

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representatives from the industry yesterday, to talk about what more

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we can do to help. There is a broader picture that this impact on

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our steel industry demonstrates, there are risks. The IMF report

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shows world growth is slowing and downgraded but they have kept the

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projections for UK growth unchanged. Our job in government is to have a

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plan, which we have got, to protect economic security and the financial

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security of families. These risks show how important it is to have

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that plan. We will talk about how insulated the country is in a

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moment. You could buy a stake in the steel industry, presumably the last

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Labour government was right to save the banking sector, in your mind?

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Yes it was, not least because of the impact on the rest of the economy.

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Hence the change we have made, which is when the government buys things,

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for instance, Crossrail, the biggest construction project in Europe, it

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has bought almost entirely British steel. We have changed the rules so

:13:58.:14:03.

when we are buying things with the tax payers' money, we take into

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account the economic impact. Some will say you don't regard the steel

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industry in the same way as the banking industry, but there are

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communities that have been decimated by the steel crisis. Surely that is

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of vital national concern? Why can't you doing the same, or taking

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similar measures to save that industry if you still believe in a

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diversify the economy with an important manufacturing industry. We

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do... But you're not taking the same steps to save this industry in the

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way Labour did with the banking sector? You have got to make sure

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you get value for money for the taxpayers' money. You have got to do

:14:50.:14:54.

things you can, that reasonable. We have made changes. Would you have to

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make sure the nation's finances are in order. I have been on this

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programme enough times talking about the fact that at the same time we

:15:06.:15:09.

still running a deficit. We have brought it down, but we need to get

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down further. And we need to tackle individual problems.

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You could say that you are the ones who have been in government, as a

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coalition and now as a majority government, dealing with this

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deficit that still has not come down in the vay George Osborne promised

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it would. So let's look at the impact of the global economy, why

:15:31.:15:34.

did George Osborne changes June so much between the Autumn Statement in

:15:35.:15:38.

November and his speech in Cardiff in January -- change his tune? I

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don't think he did. If you look at what he said in the Autumn Statement

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and listen to it, he talked about the international risks and at the

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time, he said the OBR's projections for world growth were being brought

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down and today, the IMF has reflected that Indy -- in the

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international... He said he would make Britain the most prosperous and

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secure of all the major nations in the world, and economic

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national-security were at the heart of his plans. Now he says we are

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facing a dangerous cocktail of threats. Was he wrong in November?

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No, because in November he also said international growth was slowing.

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That the pace of growth in China particularly was slowing. That there

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were risks from around the world and that we had to insulate ourselves to

:16:27.:16:32.

protect British national and economic security and, crucially, to

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protect the financial security of families, families watching this at

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home. So he talked about that. He also talked about, of course, our

:16:42.:16:46.

long-term goal, a long-term plan to make Britain a prosperous place. But

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there was a different tone, when you listen to both of those. There was a

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totally different tone. I am trying to say, which is more accurate? Is

:16:57.:17:00.

he now being more realistic about those exact threads that you have

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just outlined and are we not as well insulated that he perhaps thought --

:17:06.:17:10.

exact threats? No, the whole point of our economic plan is to make sure

:17:11.:17:14.

we are protected from these risks around the world, that our economic

:17:15.:17:18.

security and financial security of families is protected. What could

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George Osborne do? If you think about what happened in the Autumn

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Statement, what we did was pay down the deficit faster than we did

:17:30.:17:33.

before. You didn't find the money down the back of the sober to do

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that, did you? Part of it was used. Why wasn't all a bit used? It is

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important to invest in long-term infrastructure, that is part of the

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plan as well, so we smoothed the plan as well, it is all part of a

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long-term economic plan, I know you have heard that phrase before, all

:17:55.:17:58.

about protecting economic security and I think the fact today that the

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IMF had downgraded world growth but kept our growth unchanged

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demonstrates we are having some impact in doing that, but we have

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got to be aware of the risks around the world. How do you see it now, if

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you think about people's personal debt, household debt? At the moment,

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a thing like a slowdown in growth in China feels a long way off but it is

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clear the Government is worried. It is not a long way off, it affects us

:18:25.:18:28.

directly. You talk about protecting us from international markets, the

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problems in international markets, but the truth is your boss has been

:18:35.:18:38.

on aeroplanes to China every other week, and India, securing all of

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those deals and the problem is, and I am not an economist but from a

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common-sense position, the absurd levels of growth that we have seen

:18:46.:18:51.

in China seemed too good to be true and if it seems too good to be true,

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often it is. And my fear and a lot of people's fear is the chickens

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will come home to roost at some point in the next period, perhaps,

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as some people are suggesting, there will be another crash coming and if

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that crash comes, my fear is yet again it will be overburdened, two

:19:09.:19:12.

big financial services industries that will be protected and people in

:19:13.:19:19.

Port Talbot will not be protected. I think the point that you make is

:19:20.:19:22.

incredibly important and it goes to the heart of what we are trying to

:19:23.:19:26.

do to protect economic security in Britain, doing that by getting the

:19:27.:19:31.

deficit down and ultimately the debt down, by supporting job creation,

:19:32.:19:35.

and we have seen record numbers of jobs. By rebalancing the economy, I

:19:36.:19:41.

entirely agree. When manufacturing output contracted in the most recent

:19:42.:19:46.

figures, how are you rebalancing the economy? Geographically we are

:19:47.:19:49.

rebalancing it by the investment in north of England in particular,

:19:50.:19:53.

areas like where I am from in Cheshire, extra investment, as

:19:54.:19:58.

opposed to just putting all the into London, but the rebalancing of the

:19:59.:20:02.

economy is the work of a generation because for far too long, there has

:20:03.:20:06.

been far too much focus on London. That was going to be the goal for

:20:07.:20:09.

the first five years of coalition government. When you are in

:20:10.:20:13.

government, you do what you can as fast as you can but then a problem

:20:14.:20:17.

like the fact that growth has been too much focused in London and the

:20:18.:20:21.

south-east is the sort of problem that you can't tackle in a short

:20:22.:20:26.

period of time, it takes ages, and where has growth been fastest in the

:20:27.:20:29.

last few years question mark not London and the south-east, but

:20:30.:20:33.

outside, especially the north and north-west. Can I just get a

:20:34.:20:37.

reaction from you to the postponement or calling off of the

:20:38.:20:42.

next strike by junior doctors? Well, I welcome the calling off of the

:20:43.:20:47.

strike. Has the Government compromised? I'm not that close to

:20:48.:20:52.

the details of the talks and I only heard the news as I came in but I

:20:53.:20:55.

think Giles was right when he said everybody would welcome the calling

:20:56.:21:00.

off of the strikes. The strikes were unnecessary... I didn't say that. I

:21:01.:21:07.

am saying that, because it is true and the proposals on the table from

:21:08.:21:11.

the Government are incredibly reasonable about a seven-day NHS.

:21:12.:21:15.

They will have to move to get this agreement. Jeremy Hunt is leading on

:21:16.:21:20.

those negotiations but I think it was wrong for the strike to go ahead

:21:21.:21:23.

and I am really glad they have suspended the next one. What measure

:21:24.:21:28.

could the Government take on interest rates if there is another

:21:29.:21:31.

global recession and we find ourselves being battered? You won't

:21:32.:21:35.

be able to cut interest rates. That is a matter for the Bank of England

:21:36.:21:38.

and as a strong supporter of the Bank of England, I will not get into

:21:39.:21:42.

monetary policies. It is rightly a matter for them. Well done, good

:21:43.:21:44.

answer. Thank you. Sensational, David,

:21:45.:21:48.

extraordinary night if, Just even as you were

:21:49.:21:58.

reading out those figures, you sensed cries of joy

:21:59.:22:01.

from the Conservatives, gloom on the faces

:22:02.:22:05.

of the Labour Party. The first is the exit poll is right

:22:06.:22:07.

and all the polls that came out in the last 24 hours -

:22:08.:22:19.

ours was one of 11 - all 11 showed Conservative-Labour

:22:20.:22:22.

neck and neck. If this exit poll is

:22:23.:22:25.

anywhere near right, this is beyond your

:22:26.:22:29.

worst nightmares? If this exit poll is right,

:22:30.:22:32.

Andrew, I will publicly was the run-up to last year's

:22:33.:22:35.

surprise general election result. And the reason it was a surprise

:22:36.:22:48.

was in part because opinion polls had consistently pointed to

:22:49.:22:51.

a much closer result and led to endless speculation

:22:52.:22:53.

that the country was heading As well as hanging their collective

:22:54.:22:56.

heads in shame, the pollsters also announced an independent inquiry

:22:57.:23:02.

and today it gave us its findings. Well, earlier, I asked the man

:23:03.:23:08.

leading the inquiry, Professor Patrick Sturgis,

:23:09.:23:10.

and asked him why the pollsters ended up with unrepresentative

:23:11.:23:13.

samples, as the report concluded. The way that the pollsters

:23:14.:23:18.

collect their samples is rather different than would

:23:19.:23:21.

be done in the Office for National Statistics,

:23:22.:23:24.

of for an academic survey, In those kinds of surveys,

:23:25.:23:29.

a random sample of the population is drawn and a great deal of effort

:23:30.:23:35.

and expense is expended in tracking down those exact people,

:23:36.:23:40.

and by doing that, you end up with a broadly representative sample

:23:41.:23:44.

of the whole population. The pollsters aren't

:23:45.:23:48.

really able to do that, it's too expensive, takes too long,

:23:49.:23:51.

and so they use a procedure called quota sampling, a method

:23:52.:23:55.

called quota sampling, and that is based on sort of getting

:23:56.:23:59.

more or less anyone they can, in broad terms, then weighting those

:24:00.:24:03.

people so that they look like the population,

:24:04.:24:13.

in ways that we know the population So we know from the census,

:24:14.:24:16.

the sort of age distribution and the social grade distribution,

:24:17.:24:21.

so they can sort of match the samples to look

:24:22.:24:24.

like the population and that is generally a good

:24:25.:24:27.

strategy, but it can go wrong and it sometimes does,

:24:28.:24:31.

and that is what happened in 2015. But why did it go wrong

:24:32.:24:35.

so dramatically in 2015? Because presumably, that has always

:24:36.:24:40.

been the broad methodology for pollsters and although,

:24:41.:24:42.

as you say, it may be too expensive to be scientific in the sense

:24:43.:24:46.

of the Office of National to be scientific in the sense

:24:47.:24:51.

of the Office for National Statistics, if it is going to go

:24:52.:24:54.

is badly wrong as it did in 2015, Well, I mean, you know,

:24:55.:24:57.

if we step back a bit and consider exactly how wrong they were,

:24:58.:25:02.

there are a number of different ways Of course, in terms

:25:03.:25:05.

of some of the key parts of the election, the SNP surge,

:25:06.:25:14.

you know, the reduction in Lib Dem support, Greens,

:25:15.:25:17.

Ukip, they got those Of course, they got the key thing

:25:18.:25:19.

wrong, which was the lead of the Conservatives over Labour

:25:20.:25:24.

and that is where attention, But it is fair to say that

:25:25.:25:26.

in previous elections, they may have been wrong in certain

:25:27.:25:33.

places, but there wasn't The Lib Dems, for example,

:25:34.:25:35.

were overestimated by all the pollsters in 2010

:25:36.:25:43.

but no one really cared, So I think if we look carefully

:25:44.:25:45.

at the historical record, then the pollsters do not tend

:25:46.:25:52.

to get every party share exactly right, and we wouldn't really

:25:53.:25:56.

expect them to. The other is, why did it happen this

:25:57.:25:59.

time and not in 2010? I mean, that is actually

:26:00.:26:06.

quite hard to pin down. It is likely to be the sort of,

:26:07.:26:12.

you know, changing in the electoral dynamics and perhaps,

:26:13.:26:15.

as has been suggested by John Curtis and others, that there was a sort

:26:16.:26:18.

of shift towards Labour amongst younger voters and towards

:26:19.:26:23.

Conservatives amongst older voters, and it is those kind of demographic

:26:24.:26:28.

shifts in party support that can lead to these kinds of errors,

:26:29.:26:33.

if you are using the same kind of weighting procedures from one

:26:34.:26:37.

election to the next, but if the underlying demographics

:26:38.:26:41.

and electoral dynamics change of it, then it can leave you prone

:26:42.:26:46.

to these kinds of errors. Well, we're joined now

:26:47.:26:49.

by the pollster Andrew Hawkins, he's from ComRes, and by

:26:50.:26:51.

the Labour MP Ben Bradshaw. Charles Fraser is still with us. Do

:26:52.:27:04.

you agree with the findings? By and large, there is a big presentation

:27:05.:27:07.

taking place this afternoon and the full findings will be published in

:27:08.:27:11.

March, so we haven't got any more information about what the professor

:27:12.:27:16.

has been looking at all has concluded, than you have, but what

:27:17.:27:21.

we have seen so far, yes, there are clearly something issues. I think

:27:22.:27:26.

the point that professor ProfesSturgis makes about voter

:27:27.:27:29.

dynamics is a really important one, because we worked really hard in the

:27:30.:27:32.

run-up to the election to try and get everything right, get everything

:27:33.:27:38.

the best possible quality and there was one little thing going on in the

:27:39.:27:42.

back of my mind from 2010, which was that in 2010, the Lib Dem surge

:27:43.:27:46.

fizzled out on the day and I think one of the things that we have done

:27:47.:27:53.

since the election is to model and produce our own voter turnout model,

:27:54.:27:59.

which factors in the differences between different Democratic groups

:28:00.:28:01.

in terms of their certainty to vote and we think that is one of the

:28:02.:28:05.

critical points, Professor Sturgis has two reduce a report which takes

:28:06.:28:11.

in all methodologies, all nine companies and it will apply to some

:28:12.:28:16.

more than others -- has to produce. Did it affect the outcome in your

:28:17.:28:21.

mind, or did it affect the strategy of the campaign if not the outcome?

:28:22.:28:26.

We will never know whether it affected the outcome but you are

:28:27.:28:28.

right, it massively affected the strategy of the campaign and the

:28:29.:28:38.

whole media approach, we try to get the debate back policy and the

:28:39.:28:42.

prospect a Conservative government, which I always thought was the

:28:43.:28:45.

likeliest outcome, but it was impossible, given the polls. And the

:28:46.:28:50.

whole campaign was dominated by speculation of a hung parliament,

:28:51.:28:54.

not about the prospect of Conservative majority government and

:28:55.:28:56.

of course that affected the campaign, we don't know if it

:28:57.:29:01.

affected the result. Do you accept that? The polls showed what seems to

:29:02.:29:06.

be the inevitability of a hung parliament and so the narrative was,

:29:07.:29:11.

to some extent, about deals with the SNP, about no one party dominating

:29:12.:29:18.

and it became about that process and not a straightforward fight between

:29:19.:29:22.

the Conservatives and Labour. I think there is always a tension

:29:23.:29:26.

between the shock and news value of a single pole and the long-term

:29:27.:29:31.

trend. The long-term trend was showing that the Conservatives had

:29:32.:29:38.

crossed over Labour's lead towards the end of 2014 and there were a

:29:39.:29:41.

number of us polling companies that didn't have a single Labour lead in

:29:42.:29:47.

2015. Our final press release or our final poll were showing the

:29:48.:29:52.

Conservatives were set to win the popular vote but, it is inevitably

:29:53.:29:56.

in the course of things, the shock headline gets the most column inches

:29:57.:30:00.

in the newspaper. Because it was vital, in some

:30:01.:30:05.

people's minds. Does it come down to money? Is it because you don't spend

:30:06.:30:08.

enough money getting proper representative samples which would

:30:09.:30:11.

have found those Conservative voters who perhaps were older and therefore

:30:12.:30:16.

less likely to take part in what you might characterise as younger,

:30:17.:30:17.

engaged Labour voters? There is a cocktail of causes.

:30:18.:30:26.

Resourcing is one of those factors. If you spent 200 thousand pounds on

:30:27.:30:33.

a poll and perhaps if you have the luxury of time as well, you will get

:30:34.:30:39.

the answer bang on. If you spend ?5,000 on a poll, you get 1 degrees

:30:40.:30:44.

of quality, if you spend 30,000, you get another. We shouldn't blame the

:30:45.:30:50.

pollsters, the media organisations who commissioned these polls are

:30:51.:30:54.

also responsible. They should commission fewer polls but spend

:30:55.:30:59.

more. There is a conspiracy of silence between the media and the

:31:00.:31:03.

pollsters. They have both got this wrong. The Labour Party's own

:31:04.:31:08.

private polling, which we didn't see... Was that the fault of the

:31:09.:31:13.

Labour Party? It was the fault of the Labour ship. -- leadership. I am

:31:14.:31:21.

glad they got it wrong. We should trust them lest. There will be a

:31:22.:31:26.

knock-on effect. We have all of these polls back come up and I was

:31:27.:31:30.

thinking about this earlier, it is a bit like that it on The Voice, they

:31:31.:31:38.

are looking at each other, are you going to do it? There is a herding

:31:39.:31:44.

that goes on with polls. Get rid of that, and when we go and vote, we

:31:45.:31:49.

think about the issues. But people do believe in the polls. Let's talk

:31:50.:31:55.

about this issue of herding. Not enough variability between the

:31:56.:31:59.

polls. The pollsters guilty of that? I don't think there is any conscious

:32:00.:32:04.

herding back goes on. In 2010, we all adjust our methodology over

:32:05.:32:09.

time. Most of us, if we are responsible and humble enough to

:32:10.:32:13.

accept to correct but we do over time, look at the difference between

:32:14.:32:17.

the outcome and polling at each election and make adjustments as we

:32:18.:32:22.

go. If we are making the right adjustments from one election to the

:32:23.:32:26.

other, there ought to be some similarity in the adjustments we are

:32:27.:32:29.

making which might push is in the same direction. If the voter

:32:30.:32:35.

dynamics change, we might collectively be making the same

:32:36.:32:39.

mistake. It is possible, I will not deny it. Honestly, the herding

:32:40.:32:46.

concept as a deliberate, if you like, underhand thing for the

:32:47.:32:50.

pollsters to do, I can categorically say it doesn't happen. So don't you

:32:51.:32:58.

have to look over your shoulder to see where the opinion of a certain

:32:59.:33:03.

body lies? I might hold my nose and think, we will go with this, it is

:33:04.:33:08.

different from what everyone is saying, but that is the business we

:33:09.:33:13.

are in. There weren't many polls during that campaign apart from the

:33:14.:33:22.

key one on the SNP. And that was the independence referendum, not the

:33:23.:33:26.

general election. The EU referendum will be a critical moment for the

:33:27.:33:29.

pollsters and critical moment for the media. One really interesting

:33:30.:33:37.

factor is that methodology, there is a divergences opening up between

:33:38.:33:43.

telephone polls and online polls. It comes back to the point about what

:33:44.:33:47.

makes a good headline. If you publish a poll that they remain neck

:33:48.:33:53.

and neck. The head line in the newspaper is one step closer to

:33:54.:33:59.

leaving the EU. If the headline is 20 points ahead, the newspapers went

:34:00.:34:06.

publish that as a splash. Briefly, will you trust polling again? Not

:34:07.:34:14.

until they spend enough and the people who commissioned them spend

:34:15.:34:17.

enough. And then, every Labour supporter will have to take 3% of

:34:18.:34:25.

our ratings. I thought it was 6%? Overall it was six. We have to

:34:26.:34:28.

acknowledge in the Labour Party, Giles might not like this, we are

:34:29.:34:32.

six points worse than the current polling is suggesting. Thank you

:34:33.:34:35.

both very much. The NHS is an organisation that

:34:36.:34:38.

still, in the main, keeps records Successive governments have tried to

:34:39.:34:41.

do something about that with major projects like digitising

:34:42.:34:45.

patient records. But they're also looking at ways of

:34:46.:34:46.

harnessing digital information to make us better,

:34:47.:34:48.

as Giles has been finding out. For Formula 1 McLaren racer Jenson

:34:49.:34:53.

Button, driving is far safer than in the days of Nikki Lauder

:34:54.:35:01.

or Ayrton Senna, but anybody might

:35:02.:35:05.

reasonably assume he's more likely to need a

:35:06.:35:08.

doctor than a doctor to need him. It turns out that, thanks to

:35:09.:35:14.

some clever chicanery trying to take the chequered flag

:35:15.:35:17.

first can advance medical science and McLaren are at the cutting edge

:35:18.:35:24.

of making that happen. In 1969, when McLaren's

:35:25.:35:29.

founder was racing in this, there were only really

:35:30.:35:33.

two ingredients to success. The quality of the car and the

:35:34.:35:36.

quality of the driver. Nowadays, there's a third thing -

:35:37.:35:41.

research. that means being able to take vast

:35:42.:35:47.

amounts of data very, very fast - so much so that you can actually

:35:48.:35:52.

apply it during the race. And there is no intrinsic reason

:35:53.:35:56.

why, if you can harvest that kind of data from a moving racing car, you

:35:57.:36:00.

can't take it from the human body. Doing just that is potentially

:36:01.:36:04.

putting us on the road to recovery, but also putting doctors firmly in

:36:05.:36:10.

control not only of diagnosing illnesses in humans as a species,

:36:11.:36:14.

but within you as an individual, and therefore engineering care for

:36:15.:36:17.

you as a specific machine The opportunity in the technology is

:36:18.:36:21.

not only to predict events before they occur, but to personalise

:36:22.:36:30.

treatment, so not doing what is best for the population but what is best

:36:31.:36:33.

for you, but more importantly, keeping you out of expensive

:36:34.:36:37.

health care environments where you can potentially be

:36:38.:36:41.

monitored and action be taken without ever having

:36:42.:36:49.

to step inside a hospital. This is an initial

:36:50.:36:55.

testing in a pilot project called the Real-time Adaptive

:36:56.:36:57.

Predicted Indicator of Deterioration The Government's Life Sciences

:36:58.:37:04.

Minister insists but part of lots of new ways

:37:05.:37:10.

technology can help the NHS. You are going to see

:37:11.:37:15.

diagnostic digital monitoring, they know who you are

:37:16.:37:18.

before you get there and they have your medicines

:37:19.:37:24.

prepared for you and personalised, and an NHS, a digital NHS

:37:25.:37:26.

that is able to monitor and measure performance and safety

:37:27.:37:29.

across the whole system. The thing that is likely to slow

:37:30.:37:33.

such advances down is patients their confidential help data

:37:34.:37:36.

needs to be stored that has tended to slam

:37:37.:37:41.

on the brakes of such ideas. Joining us now is George Freeman

:37:42.:37:54.

the Life Sciences Minister, and Renate Samson the Chief

:37:55.:37:57.

Executive of Big Brother Watch. Don't the upsides the digital NHS

:37:58.:38:12.

the downsides? There are some wonderful upsides of a digital NHS.

:38:13.:38:17.

Everything we discovered from that video shows some marvellous things

:38:18.:38:21.

about predict Ding health care, monitoring our health as we go along

:38:22.:38:25.

in our homes without having to go to hospital. However, we have to take

:38:26.:38:31.

things step by step. We have had a lot of problems with the process of

:38:32.:38:37.

digitising medical records. Medical records and our own personal health

:38:38.:38:40.

data is a sensitive issue for a lot of people. We need to know exactly

:38:41.:38:44.

what is going to happen, when, how and why, rather than the ever be an

:38:45.:38:52.

assumption? Are we asked, do people realise this will happen that all

:38:53.:38:57.

the records and personal information will be stored electronically? It is

:38:58.:39:03.

very patchy right now. There have been problems in the past with the

:39:04.:39:08.

data scheme. Initially people were not asked and then they were being

:39:09.:39:12.

informed it was going to happen but where expressed concerns about it

:39:13.:39:15.

through a leaflet to the door because it was tied up with pizza

:39:16.:39:22.

delivery leaflets coming through. That was criticised heavily and from

:39:23.:39:26.

my point of view, rightly so. Things have stopped, things slow down and

:39:27.:39:31.

that there has been a re-evaluation of how to engage with the public.

:39:32.:39:34.

There will be a lot of benefit with moving forward with digitisation. We

:39:35.:39:40.

are becoming digital citizens. We have to accept it will happen a

:39:41.:39:45.

little bit. But we still need to take people into consideration and

:39:46.:39:49.

not just assume because it is perceived it is wonderful, everybody

:39:50.:39:53.

will be happy. It is our choice what happens with our health care and

:39:54.:39:55.

should be our choice what happens with our medical data. Thank you

:39:56.:40:01.

very much. George Freeman, it has been patchy, do you accept that

:40:02.:40:06.

people haven't been informed in a uniform and comprehensive way,

:40:07.:40:10.

taking on board this pizza leaflet that was put through the door? Yes,

:40:11.:40:16.

NHS England would accept the way they did the consultation data was

:40:17.:40:20.

not case study in consultation. Partly for them it is so obvious a

:40:21.:40:29.

modern NHS requires to be digital. The truth is, for individual care,

:40:30.:40:33.

when an ambulance comes for you and you go to your doctor or to a

:40:34.:40:38.

hospital, we want the hospital to be ready, the GP to know and to be

:40:39.:40:41.

ready and click and look at your history and make sure we diagnose

:40:42.:40:51.

you properly. Far too many of my constituents have to repeat all the

:40:52.:40:56.

way down the care pathway. Medical records are stored with Treasury

:40:57.:41:03.

tags. Why in 2015, with this fabulous NHS are we trying to run it

:41:04.:41:07.

on paper and card board. We have to modernise the system. You said it

:41:08.:41:13.

has been done in Apache Way, so either people have not been told

:41:14.:41:17.

properly or the information has been shared with the parties they didn't

:41:18.:41:21.

know about, either deliberately or inadvertently. Do you accept that? I

:41:22.:41:26.

accept there hasn't been good in practice in the NHS. One thing we

:41:27.:41:32.

have set out is the national data Guardian. We are determined patients

:41:33.:41:41.

can trust the system properly. There will be independent proposals. We

:41:42.:41:45.

have made it illegal for the use of data for insurance purposes. You

:41:46.:41:49.

have made that are legal. We have put in place a system for giving

:41:50.:41:55.

patients the power, ultimately with a slide button on your phone so

:41:56.:42:02.

patients take control. When you ask patients do you want your medical

:42:03.:42:07.

records to be use for the purpose of NHS research and better treatments,

:42:08.:42:13.

most of the time 99% of people say yes. If it is an honour might, then

:42:14.:42:18.

there is more good in sharing vital information and you don't have to

:42:19.:42:22.

keep repeating the same bits of information about your symptoms and

:42:23.:42:25.

your state of health, every time you visit the hospital? The problem is,

:42:26.:42:31.

Digital Security cannot be guaranteed. People have been on this

:42:32.:42:40.

programme talking about people hacking mobile phone companies and

:42:41.:42:44.

all things. Does that mean we shouldn't have progress on it? I

:42:45.:42:47.

don't know what progress means. It is all right to have fancy films

:42:48.:42:53.

about racing cars, but regress is being able to stand in front of more

:42:54.:42:56.

doctors and nurses and not technology. Technology should only

:42:57.:43:02.

ever be a tool. People don't want to talk to the screen, they don't want

:43:03.:43:08.

to stay at home, they often want to see people who care and understand

:43:09.:43:12.

and listened. And the digital thing is not very good at understanding or

:43:13.:43:19.

caring, or listening. That is not what nurses or doctors will tell

:43:20.:43:22.

you. The patients are telling you they love the wireless telemetry the

:43:23.:43:31.

children in cardiac recovery. The nurses will tell you they are

:43:32.:43:36.

getting at 20 seven feet from each child which bleeps when the child

:43:37.:43:39.

has a problem. But allows them to deliver personalised care. When an

:43:40.:43:46.

ambulance comes, you want them to have an iPad, don't you? Isn't it a

:43:47.:43:50.

substitute for the medical staff themselves? Because elderly people

:43:51.:43:56.

in particular will want to see a person? No, it is there to exercise

:43:57.:44:03.

personal clinical judgment, armed with data that is accurate and

:44:04.:44:06.

up-to-date. If I went to my hospital, the nurses did the drug

:44:07.:44:11.

round. Now there is an electronic prescription. The nurses say it is

:44:12.:44:19.

brilliant. At they can spend time looking at the patient in the eye,

:44:20.:44:26.

checking the pulse. You have made it illegal for this data to go to third

:44:27.:44:33.

parties like insurance firms. Do they go to pharmaceutical companies?

:44:34.:44:40.

The report is about to come back with recommendations on consent and

:44:41.:44:46.

how we move forward. There is individual care, when the ambulance

:44:47.:44:50.

comes at the A and the local GP. There is data for NHS patient

:44:51.:44:55.

safety. We want to know where there is dangerous trap this and thirdly

:44:56.:45:02.

research. In research, the vast majority of the data is consented.

:45:03.:45:07.

Patients readily want the data used for research. It is how we allow

:45:08.:45:14.

data to flow through the NHS. So when you arrive, people know who you

:45:15.:45:16.

are and they know how to treat you. towards the 1.1 million migrants

:45:17.:45:19.

who arrived in the country in 2015 have changed since

:45:20.:45:24.

the start of the year. The men suspected of attacking women

:45:25.:45:26.

in Cologne on New Year's Eve were "almost exclusively"

:45:27.:45:29.

from a migration background, mainly North African and Arab,

:45:30.:45:31.

according to officials. So what does this mean for Germany's

:45:32.:45:34.

open-door policy on refugees? What happened in cities like Hamburg

:45:35.:45:38.

and Cologne Here, nearly 500 women allege they

:45:39.:45:46.

were sexually assaulted. The perpetrators said to be of North

:45:47.:45:56.

African and Arabic origin. Despite numerous complaints to the

:45:57.:46:10.

police, the authorities and the media were slow to report

:46:11.:46:16.

what had happened. When the news did come out days

:46:17.:46:19.

later, there were protests. With a background of record numbers

:46:20.:46:29.

of refugees and migrants arriving in Germany, Angela Merkel,

:46:30.:46:31.

they said, must do something. For her part, the Chancellor

:46:32.:46:34.

insisted Germany would do more to make clear to migrants what was and

:46:35.:46:38.

what was not culturally acceptable and she proposed changes to make it

:46:39.:46:42.

easier to deport asylum seekers But she has not calmed all fears

:46:43.:46:44.

nor silenced her critics. scuffles between pro-and

:46:45.:46:52.

anti-immigration groups There is no doubt what happened in

:46:53.:46:56.

Germany will colour a much wider debate

:46:57.:47:05.

about migration across Europe. What you can't do is take away from

:47:06.:47:07.

ordinary folk out there scenes such as Cologne and saying

:47:08.:47:10.

to themselves in three years' time, all of these people

:47:11.:47:13.

will have an EU passport and will be able to

:47:14.:47:15.

come to Britain. So far, one asylum seeker

:47:16.:47:18.

has been arrested over alleged sexual offences

:47:19.:47:20.

in Cologne on New Year's Eve. Whatever the outcome here, a wider

:47:21.:47:24.

question of integration and culture has been posed and, so far,

:47:25.:47:28.

not answered. We're joined now by Raheem Kassam

:47:29.:47:36.

from the right-wing news website 1.1 million migrants, my sources in

:47:37.:48:41.

the European security services said it is more like 1.5 million because

:48:42.:48:45.

they don't count over stayers or people they don't know. My question

:48:46.:48:51.

was is it wrong for people to change their mind so dramatically as a

:48:52.:48:55.

result of a number of incidents, in the general view towards migrants? I

:48:56.:49:00.

don't think so, these are where the warnings were originally. At the

:49:01.:49:04.

forefront of this, those people weren't listening. Now they have had

:49:05.:49:10.

to see it and these people have had to go through bad situations for

:49:11.:49:13.

these people to see the problem. There were warnings countries like

:49:14.:49:17.

Germany wouldn't be able to cope, from people within Germany, that the

:49:18.:49:22.

open door policy towards refugees would lead to problems. I surprised

:49:23.:49:28.

by this change following reports of sexual assaults in Germany? The

:49:29.:49:32.

sexual assaults are about things. That I think it has been blown out

:49:33.:49:39.

of proportion. A few months ago I had a 16-year-old boy murder another

:49:40.:49:44.

16-year-old boy about half a mile from my parish, from my church.

:49:45.:49:47.

Doesn't even make the national press. This thing suddenly becomes a

:49:48.:49:54.

way of focusing all our anxieties and so forth. Yes, incorporating

:49:55.:49:58.

large numbers of people, and from my mind, the more the merrier, because

:49:59.:50:04.

they are being saved from a terrible situation from Syria and North

:50:05.:50:08.

Africa and so forth. Yes it will be difficult, but I think we should

:50:09.:50:11.

absolutely be up for the troubles back on.

:50:12.:50:13.

You are blaming a group of people for the action of a few bad apples.

:50:14.:50:22.

I don't think everybody thinking every migrant in Europe. Raping

:50:23.:50:26.

people. You had Charlie Hebdo showing the three-year-old boy who

:50:27.:50:32.

died trying to make it over to Europe to be in their minds a bum

:50:33.:50:40.

groper. But they do it to show how ridiculous it is and nobody is

:50:41.:50:42.

saying all of these migrants ridiculous it is and nobody is

:50:43.:50:46.

rapists or sexual assault is all robbers, but we are saying we don't

:50:47.:50:50.

know who the people who are coming our. There are criminals, there are

:50:51.:50:54.

terrorists, we know that to be a fact and it is true. And we have as

:50:55.:51:03.

many home grown people who are born and bred in this country who are

:51:04.:51:07.

rapists, who are criminals and why is it that we are demonising a

:51:08.:51:14.

particular... They are called the population in general, that is what

:51:15.:51:19.

they are called. Why not proper background checks? I don't think

:51:20.:51:27.

that is practical. So just let them all in? Open the floodgates and let

:51:28.:51:33.

everyone in. I have just said yes. Why do you keep on saying ISIS,

:51:34.:51:41.

cursing these people with that? They are running away from ISIS, they are

:51:42.:51:45.

running away from their bombs, this war that we have done too much to

:51:46.:51:49.

stoke up and create an actually, if we close the doors on them, we are

:51:50.:51:54.

doubling up... I didn't say close the doors, I said proper background

:51:55.:52:00.

checks. Do you think there is a case of Islam phobia here that is sort of

:52:01.:52:05.

masquerading as anti-migrant or anti-refugee, using the sort of

:52:06.:52:08.

sentiments you are saying, actually, they are anti-Islam? I have a big

:52:09.:52:15.

problem with the word Islam phobia. Being raised in a Muslim family,

:52:16.:52:23.

having it raised against me, as you said, it is a few people in there

:52:24.:52:26.

that might be instinctively hateful towards Islam that you are tarring a

:52:27.:52:31.

whole anti-migration movement, said the same thing can be held back and

:52:32.:52:36.

forth. But conflating the to does the same thing, isn't it going to be

:52:37.:52:41.

exploited by the far right and extremist movements? I think you are

:52:42.:52:45.

over estimating the far right, especially in Germany. They have

:52:46.:52:49.

strict rules on what they can and can't do on their marches. 5,000

:52:50.:52:53.

people went to the streets in Dresden, they are not allowed to

:52:54.:52:56.

drink, shout and if they are doing that, they are kicked out. Do you

:52:57.:53:00.

think it is a bit lazy and complacent if people do suggest this

:53:01.:53:05.

is just Islam phobia? It is Islam phobia. It is patented it clear that

:53:06.:53:14.

the way in which people are being targeted and the language that is

:53:15.:53:21.

being used about Islam and Muslims is clearly provocative and, indeed,

:53:22.:53:25.

through our Government and the Prevent strategy and all that

:53:26.:53:28.

nonsense, it is targeting Muslims and it does not help and we have do

:53:29.:53:33.

trust that the rule of law is blind to all that, that is how it should

:53:34.:53:37.

be and we shouldn't be targeting Muslims. Refugees should be welcome.

:53:38.:53:41.

Thank you, I am going to have to end it there.

:53:42.:53:42.

We often hear people wondering if the UK is still a Christian country.

:53:43.:53:45.

But according to a new study being presented at the British Academy

:53:46.:53:48.

Lecture tonight, the new norm may be to have no religion at all - with a

:53:49.:53:52.

majority of white Britons, according to the study, saying they don't

:53:53.:53:55.

Well, that may go some way to explaining the popularity of

:53:56.:53:59.

something called the Sunday Assembly, a gathering for

:54:00.:54:02.

non-religious people who want a similar communal experience to going

:54:03.:54:04.

Here's how the BBC covered the Sunday Assembly

:54:05.:54:09.

I am, if anything, overqualified for this job!

:54:10.:54:17.

It is said to be the first atheist church in Britain

:54:18.:54:20.

and the service is led by a comedian called Sanderson Jones.

:54:21.:54:25.

Let's not start handing around titles,

:54:26.:54:27.

because I think the moment you get a title,

:54:28.:54:32.

you are just a short distance from a robe and a silly hat.

:54:33.:54:35.

Instead of hymns, they sing pop songs.

:54:36.:54:38.

Instead of prayers, there is two minutes of silence.

:54:39.:54:40.

If you wouldn't mind just closing your eyes.

:54:41.:54:42.

And the only cross to be found here is on the first aid kit.

:54:43.:54:48.

the Sunday Assembly has spread to other cities around the world,

:54:49.:54:52.

and you saw one of its founders in the clip there,

:54:53.:54:54.

the comedian Sanderson Jones, who joins us now.

:54:55.:55:01.

So, how did you come up with this idea? Well, I left a Christmas carol

:55:02.:55:12.

concert about ten years ago and I thought there is so much about this

:55:13.:55:15.

I love, singing songs, coming together as a community and I am

:55:16.:55:18.

thinking about the many things I would like to improve about myself

:55:19.:55:21.

and helping other people but there was one bit I couldn't get excited

:55:22.:55:27.

about, the God bit, but I am so transcendentally delighted to be

:55:28.:55:30.

alive, wouldn't it be wonderful to come together to celebrate that.

:55:31.:55:35.

Isn't that religion promotes people anyway? They don't necessarily

:55:36.:55:41.

believe the words of the Scriptures, they like the pics you like, the

:55:42.:55:44.

singing, the communal feeling and going to a meeting place. What a

:55:45.:55:48.

great advertisement for Sunday Assembly, thank you very much, I

:55:49.:55:55.

drink later. There is that bit like when I go to my friends who are

:55:56.:55:58.

getting married in a church because they like the building and they talk

:55:59.:56:01.

about it being in front of God, I can't connect, whereas we do it in a

:56:02.:56:05.

way where everyone can connect. What are you going to do about that? It

:56:06.:56:09.

is a real challenge. Let many flowers bloom, I am very happy and I

:56:10.:56:16.

hope it goes well. It wouldn't really work for me and in fact, it

:56:17.:56:20.

wouldn't really work for me because what I don't like, and you have sort

:56:21.:56:26.

of copied, is you are charismatic atheists, see it is charismatic

:56:27.:56:32.

theology into atheism and I am a Catholic by anaesthetics, so I like

:56:33.:56:37.

a different sort of aesthetic. So it is quite interesting -- by aspect

:56:38.:56:44.

it. It is a sort of Hill song charismatic type of thing but I

:56:45.:56:48.

think it would be very difficult to reproduce and more Catholic

:56:49.:56:54.

spirituality. Is it sustainable? So far, there are 70 in eight different

:56:55.:56:57.

countries on three different continents. We are trying to work

:56:58.:57:02.

out how to configure it, we had 500 people at the last one in London and

:57:03.:57:07.

intriguingly, two Housing Association is commissioned us to

:57:08.:57:10.

build Sunday Assembly for them because they love the community

:57:11.:57:12.

aspect and councils are getting in touch because they say you create

:57:13.:57:17.

community, communities that after people and I am in it for bringing

:57:18.:57:20.

people together and I think some of them are in it for the bean

:57:21.:57:24.

counting, but whatever works. Is it an admission that there is a failure

:57:25.:57:28.

on the church to keep big congregations and attract new

:57:29.:57:30.

members that this group seem to be filling? The church is losing

:57:31.:57:35.

members and, Juno what it doesn't really bother me? -- do you know

:57:36.:57:42.

what, it doesn't fully bother me. I am not ultimately sustained about

:57:43.:57:45.

whether there is a lot of it. For me, God exists and that is what is

:57:46.:57:49.

wonderful and that won't change, however many people come and go to

:57:50.:57:53.

my church. Actually, we are doing pretty well but I am glad this is

:57:54.:57:58.

happening, I think it is a good thing. Will you go along if you are

:57:59.:58:04.

not busy? I do do things on Sunday, I have a slight problem there! What

:58:05.:58:08.

is good about this is one of the things sociologically, coming

:58:09.:58:13.

together, like church, is a good delivery system for ethics and what

:58:14.:58:17.

you are doing is actually just copying the church's delivery system

:58:18.:58:21.

in quite a good way. The one I look at is how mindfulness looked at

:58:22.:58:25.

dedication and made it a secular and inclusive, we are looking at the

:58:26.:58:29.

church, making it secular and inclusive and trying to create

:58:30.:58:30.

something new. Thank you. There's just time before we go to

:58:31.:58:32.

find out the answer to our quiz. Which of these words was not used to

:58:33.:58:35.

describe Mr Trump during the debate? I don't know what poltroon means.

:58:36.:58:52.

Battles the answer, I think it means cower. -- that was. Thank you for

:58:53.:58:57.

all of our guests and I will be back with Andrew tomorrow with Prime

:58:58.:58:58.

Minister's Questions. Goodbye. Let your New Year start with a bang

:58:59.:59:03.

and visit an explosive new China.

:59:04.:59:10.

Jo Coburn is joined by Anglican priest and Guardian columnist Giles Fraser for the latest political news and debate from Westminster. Includes coverage and analysis of a speech by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney about the UK economy in 2016.


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