Jo Coburn with the latest political news, interviews and debate. Jo is joined by broadcaster Iain Dale for a look at the details of the draft deal between Britain and the EU.
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Hello, and welcome to the Daily Politics.
David Cameron claims he's made real progress in his negotiations for EU
reform, as a draft deal is published.
But the Prime Minister hasn't achieved his manifesto pledge
to stop EU migrants claiming child benefit for children living abroad.
The draft deal comes after detailed negotiations with the President
of the European Council, Donald Tusk, but the PM still needs
to win the support of all 27 other EU countries.
Scottish Labour pledge to raise income tax north of the border
by one penny in the pound, ahead of elections to
We'll hear from Labour's Iain Gray and the SNP.
And, across the Atlantic, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump
suffer setbacks in their campaigns to win the White House,
as both frontrunners under-perform in Iowa.
As I stand here tonight, breathing a big sigh of relief -
of the programme today is the writer, broadcaster,
publisher and former Conservative Party candidate,
So, it's a big day for David Cameron as the details of a draft EU reform
We'll get into the detail of that in a moment.
But, first, Iain, you present a radio phone-in programme.
How much attention to all this do you think the public is paying
There is an interest, I did a phone in on this last night and, in the
past, phone on Europe do not gain hundreds of calls. Last night, there
was an appetite for this. The public mood is different from
Westminster where the consensus seems to be the leave campaigns seem
to be in chaos. It is the Britain stronger in Europe people who are
making waves. I do not think that is reflected in
the electorate. Most people look at David Cameron's
so-called renegotiation and wonder. If he can't achieve this with these
small demands, what can he achieved? The child benefit thing most people
think, how can it be right to send money out of this country to people
live abroad? That was a key pledge in the
manifesto. When you say the voting electorate
don't reflect the way we are reporting it, is that because they
are undecided, or are they family in the leave campaign?
A lot of people are undecided, I am. I regard myself as a Euro septic,
but I haven't made that decision yet. Neither of the campaigns have
made their cases, there is a long way to go.
The challenge for the people who say we should leave is to say, what kind
of Britain but we have if we did leave? We are getting scare stories
from both campaigns about terrible things.
Will you be persuaded by the end of this programme after the detail?
Is this a challenge you are up to? We can try.
Correct, Tim Farron, he has been asked in an interview how
So, our question for today is, what did he say?
Was it as the man who saved the Liberal Democrats?
The first Liberal Prime Minister in over 100 years?
At the end of the show, Iain will give us the correct answer.
In the last half-an-hour, the detail of a draft deal on EU
reform has been published by the President of the European
David Cameron says it shows he's made real progress on his list
of demands, but that some of the detail still needs
It's been a long, hard trek for the Prime Minister
The first milestone of David Cameron's renegotiation
tour, after leaving base camp, was to secure for the UK an opt-out
With Eurozone economies across the continent having been
buffeted by cold winds in the past few years, the Prime Minister
was also keen to ensure protection in the single market
The toughest section of the PM's expedition has been his attempt
to restrict in-work benefits for EU migrants for four years.
Last week, it emerged that one way across that rocky terrain would be
for the UK to apply a so-called emergency brake, where the UK
would be allowed to restrict migrant benefits if it could prove public
services were under excessive strain.
But, even then, other EU countries would have to agree,
Today, the end is in sight for David Cameron's tour.
He's touting a potential new red card system as the answer
New EU laws could be vetoed if 55% of national parliaments vote to do
so, with each of the 28 EU countries having two votes.
And, regardless of the merits of the proposals today,
Donald Tusk's draft agreement must be agreed by other EU heads
of government at the meeting of the European Council this month.
Until then, it'll be up to the so-called sherpas in Brussels
and Whitehall to smooth the path to the summit.
Here's what the Prime Minister had to say earlier today about the deal
On so many things, I was told these things would be impossible.
legislation, people said you wouldn't get that,
before getting in-work benefits in Britain, it's
of the concept of ever-closer union, again, pretty clearly set out
So, real progress, more work to be done, more detail to be nailed down,
but we said we needed to deliver in four key areas and this document
We can talk now to our deputy political editor James Landale,
who has been speed-reading the draft deal.
Can you give us an idea of how this document compared with the demands
David Cameron originally made? He has a chunk of what he asked for
but not everything. In terms of the headline, the areas where he has
made more progress on issues of sovereignty, governance
made more progress on issues of opposition. Way he has not made
enough progress is over the opposition. Way he has not made
curbing migration. He has his immensely break but it is not clear
when and how that will be pulled. immensely break but it is not clear
There is also a question of graduation, a word we will be
talking about today. This document says, yes, if this is agreed, EU
migrants with have benefits restricted further four years, but
it could be restored during that period, as EU workers contribute to
the system and can claim benefit. One area where there is more work to
be done. On the red card system?
It is there, a development of the existing procedure. It will allow,
if 55% of national pundits agreed to block a new proposal, only new
proposals, it can't review of proposals.
It had to deal with subsidiarity and proportionality. It had to deal
with, is this something Brussels should do all the national
parliaments? Broadly, do you think it is enough
to satisfy those who are already supporting the Prime Minister, but
those who are not decided? People who do not want the UK to
stay in the EU clearly say it is not enough. Others will say, is this the
earth shattering fundamental reform the Prime Minister promised?
That is harder to argue. I think the Government and Prime Minister will
say this is enough to allow them, if agreed, we have another fortnight,
they will think this document is enough for the Prime Minister to say
to the country we should stay in. Thank you.
We've been joined by the former Conservative minister Nick Herbert
who is leading the pro-EU campaign Conservatives For Reform.
And by the Conservative MP Steve Baker who runs
Conservatives For Britain, and is campaigning for Britain
Welcome to you. Nick Herbert, let us look at child benefit. The manifesto
said if an EU migrant child is living abroad, they should receive
no child benefit or child tax credits, no matter how long they
have worked in the UK tax they paid. David Cameron has achieved, has
failed to achieve that? It is a different means of the same
outcome and the effect will be there will be sadness because child
benefit will not be paid in anything like the same rate to people who
have come in who are EU migrants. It won't have the perverse effect of
encouraging people to bring in their children. So I think it is a
sensible outcome. It restores fairness to the system.
That is not the same as saying they will receive no child benefit or
child tax credit. It will be reduced and index linked.
It is not the same but the practical effect will be the same. It will
restore fairness. Explain how it will be the same, if
the manifesto said people will not receive any child benefit in their
country of origin, they will still receive money at a reduced rate.
Because the level of pay will not be at the same rate and it. People
bringing children of which is otherwise how they might have
responded. It does restore fairness people want to see.
The emergency brake, in terms of benefit comic in work benefits for
EU migrants. Do we know how long it will be in place for?
This is subject to renegotiation. There is further negotiation to do.
Things seem to be moving the Prime Minister's way. He has been clear he
wants to ensure this is a practical and effective measure and has
secured an understanding, and I think this will be absolutely clear
that the emergency brake would be pulled immediately. That is what I
think the country wants to know. They want immediate action to deal
with the levels of net migration we have.
How will net migration go down under emergency brake?
We know there is a significant draw factor from the payment of in work
benefits. What percentage of EU migrants are drawn to Britain purely
for in work benefits? I don't think we have done, I don't
think that can commission has been done.
The draw factor is considerable because, says would tell you if you
are topping up people's net salary by 50% by paying in work benefits, a
payment of ?6,000 a year or more, that is an unnatural draw for people
to come. This is a sensible approach, and introduces fairness.
It is very popular, the public want this because they don't think it is
right when we have a system which requires, does not require you to
pay first, people are coming from countries where you do have to pay
in first. This levels the playing field. You
don't know by how much it would bring down the net migration which
stands at 330,000 a year. It does not restrict the freedom of movement
of people within the EU. No, the promised says we subscribe
to the printable of freedom of movement. But we have border
control. We prevent EU nationals coming into this country if they
pose a risk. Part of the renegotiation is to tighten up those
proposals. It was not true we don't have borders. People have the right
to come to work but not the right to come and claim. That will address
the problem of very high levels of people being drawn artificially.
This is a good proposal and addresses those concerns.
Steve Baker, this is progress. It is better than what exists in the mind
of the Prime Minister, you have to accept that?
Progress of a kind but falls short of what people want. It is a bad
joke. Which people? Conservative MPs I
talk to and in our constituencies. Within the political class, people
no immigration is a top issue. The Office for Budget Responsibility
told us on the Treasury committee the proposal to have an emergency
brake on benefits would not make much difference. The break comes in
after there is a provable problem and only with permission of other
people. This clarifies the choice. If people want to take back control
to our Parliament so our Prime Minister can decide how to operate
our benefits and who can live in our country, the anything they can do is
to take control and govern our country.
And that's true, isn't it? No, it is an entirely false prospectus. Free
movement is a condition of access to the single market. It is false but
leaving would immediately enabled this problem to be dealt with,
that's why the Prime Minister's approach is more pragmatic. On the
Office for Budget Responsibility, it was a response from a member of the
Office for Budget Responsibility who said he didn't know, the work hadn't
been done. He didn't say it was the formal position that this wouldn't
address net migration, common tells us will. What would you say about
that because you have been rubbishing everything the Prime
Minister has tried to do since the negotiations started? I said we
wanted to end the automatic supremacy of EU laws. The Foreign
Secretary went on the Andrew Marr Show and said the Government would
not be asking for it, it was tantamount to exit. From then the
die was cast. We want the public to have a high quality debate, which
you are giving, but the reality is clear that the Prime Minister is
negotiating to keep us in the EU and that means policy operated on the
basis of EU citizenship. That means this mess rather than the clarity of
our Parliament deciding. Do you think the document is worth the
paper it is written on? I don't want to insult the document, we need to
look at it and decide what we think of it but personally I think there
will be nothing in it that withstands serious scrutiny. We have
talked about child benefit and curbs on migration, let's talk about the
red card system. What's the difference between the red card
system being proposed in this document and the current yellow and
orange card system that exists? The red card system is binding. It means
the national parliaments, if they clubbed together and disagree with
the proposal from the council, can stop it in its tracks and that's a
very important... The Council or the commission? The parliament can
stop... That is before the council has even considered it. One of the
criticisms Stephen and I would have made of the EU is there is not
enough democracy in it. Why this proposal is so important is that it
allows national parliaments to block measures, it restores an important
say and power to national parliaments, yes, when they clubbed
together but it does give them that power. They already had that power
of course under the yellow and orange card system for national
parliaments to club together and tried to block. How many times has
it been used in the past five or six years? Not enough. That's because it
doesn't have the actual effect of stopping the proposal. We would
agree about that. It needs to stopping the proposal. We would
measure that has bite, that can stop things in their
measure that has bite, that can stop it is a red card, not a
measure that has bite, that can stop orange card, that's why this is a
significant development. orange card, that's why this is a
time we have heard criticism that we don't have
time we have heard criticism that we welcome this. Is
time we have heard criticism that we is that this is a useless system. If
the regulation is that this is a useless system. If
which is universally opposed by is that this is a useless system. If
lawyers and the Government, in such circumstances presumably we would
try to trigger the system. What are the chances that the rest of Europe
would join us in stopping it, unless we can veto rules which are
inappropriate and against our strategic interests, we are not in
the right place. What are the chances of getting 50% of national
parliaments to sign up to a common proposal to block what the
commission is doing? Much greater when they know they can block
something. It is a new system but it... History says it has
something. It is a new system but used twice before, that is because
it is so difficult to achieve, to get that many countries on board.
But you would be incentivised when you know it has the real effect.
This was one of the key negotiating aims and I think the Prime Minister
was right to say it is a potential achievement. We have a veto in lots
of key areas, not all decisions are taken by qualified voting, and the
decisions can be blocked by the country's leaders. The reason this
is a reform is that it will not just be the country's leaders who can
block things, it is their parliaments. Why do you think Boris
Johnson doesn't like it? He said it is trivial, it means nothing, this
red card system. I wonder if he said about this proposal. Yes, he said it
about this proposal. I doubt that. My view on the red card thing, it is
not going to be enough, we need something more. We have got enough
and -- if you look at the overall picture. There is the binding
commitment that Britain will not be part of an ever closer union. There
are these other measures and the totality of it is that we are not
just been further integration, we are putting it into reverse. What is
your impression, having heard this discussion now? You were undecided,
are you still undecided? I think a little bit of progress has been made
on his terms but frankly the whole thing is a joke. The terms they use,
the red card system, the break and the rest of it, what will that mean
to people down the pub? Absolutely nothing. They want the British
Parliament to have influence on this and at the moment the British
Parliament has very little influence. We cannot stop things.
The child benefit thing, I'm afraid will go down like a cup of cold sick
with people. One of the criticisms is that your side is not actually
presenting a comprehensive opposition to stay in the EU
campaign. You are split, there is no big personality leading your side,
they are running rings around you. I don't accept that for one moment.
You don't have a leader and you are split! We have secured the
objectives we set for ourselves. It would be lovely to have a figure of
enormous stature... Like Boris Johnson or Theresa May. The reality
is that the enthusiasm and energy is on our side of the argument. The
problem for your side of the argument is that it has always been
this way. The Eurosceptic movement, to coin a phrase, has always been
fractured. People look at you and think if you cannot agree with each
other on the way to go, how can we trust you in the argument you make?
You will know that all insurgencies have this problem, ever since the
Judaean people's front until today! What I will say to everybody who
wants to leave, please concentrate on the strategic goal, make your
case with decency, but don't blame each other and have a go at each
other's character. The energy and enthusiasm is on our side, the other
case is about fear. Thank you for clarifying. From the people's front
of Judaea, and the Judaea and people's front, thank you very much.
Over the past few months, David Cameron has been at pains
to demonstrate he's been fighting hard for a good deal on EU reform.
But leave campaigners are sceptical about the way the PM's negotiations
have been presented, suggesting that there was always
going to be a tough final push for a last-minute deal.
Here's a reminder of how the negotiations have played out.
Today marks a significant milestone, really,in the process of saying
it is right for Britain to have this renegotiation,
The fundamental values of the European Union
I don't want the British to leave, and I don't
They have their points, we have our points.
As reasonable people, we will find a way out
of the complicated situation we are in.
I am open to listening to alternative solutions.
As we have agreed at the Council, we should be looking for solutions,
The prize is closer than it was, and I will work round-the-clock
I can hold my referendum at any time, up until the end of 2017.
If there is goodwill and hard work, we will be able to achieve
There is now a proposal on the table.
We've been joined by the chief political commentator
at the Independent on Sunday, John Rentoul.
Welcome back to the Daily Politics. Can David Cameron sell this document
on EU renegotiation as a diplomatic victory? That's the question because
what I'm most impressed by in the opinion polls is the finding that
suggests that if the Prime Minister recommends a deal, it is all over.
The referendum is easily won because by a margin of 3-1, people will be
guided by what he says. If the Prime Minister can convincingly say this
is a substantial improvement, a big deal and I recommend it to the
country, I think that is game over. Do you think all of the dramatic
build-up, starting with David Cameron saying how hard they are all
working, they would be working hard to achieve a negotiation, from
Donald Tusk saying no deal on Sunday to then a couple of days later
saying this is a deal, and others saying it has been manufactured. I'm
a cynic, I think the deal was always available, from whence David Cameron
gave his speech in November. I think when he set it out, he knew he could
achieve it and he's on the verge of doing so. I think you will be able
to claim that as a triumph. In a way he has achieved that, he has driven
this reform. There may be other EU national parliaments who wanted some
reforms on benefits to EU migrants but he has pushed it to the top of
the agenda. He has four agendas, three of which are motherhood and
apple pie. He knew he was going to get three of the four, he set up the
fourth is a bit of an aunt Sally so that he could look tough and in the
end he probably won't get or wanted. This is not renegotiating Britain's
terms of membership, it is looking at four meaningless aspects of it.
I'm not sure I agree with what John says about these polls that if the
Prime Minister recommends staying in, that will be a big win for the
stay campaign because there is such an anti-Westminster feeling in the
country at the moment that a lot of people will say if he recommends it,
I'm not voting for it. Not just Labour voters, people who are
natural Conservatives. If you look at the answers people give to
pollsters, they say that if the Prime Minister recommends it they
will vote for it. Pollsters have not always been right in this country.
In recent times! Do you have an alternative way of gauging it? My
radio show! I will stick with the opinion polls. How important is
choreography in this, because so much language has been used to
dramatic effect in this, which I haven't seen for quite a long time,
and doesn't have an impact in terms of not just the public but also how
it is received by the press and Westminster bubble, and to some
extent are responsible for putting the message out?
The idea it will be a two shirt summit, working until 3am because it
is difficult. Actually, that does reflect the fact
what David Cameron is doing is quite difficult.
I am cynical that he thought he could achieve it all along.
It is not easy. There is a knot of opposition.
The European Union is basically on reform of all, 28 countries to agree
on anything substantial. They might agree to the sort of thing he is
talking about but it is not substantial and people will see
through it. Will they feel there has been
progress particularly on the issue of in work benefits, symbolically,
it will sound powerful. It is not fundamental to the
European Union. What you would like to
area. Funny laugh, it used to be that.
That Funny laugh, it used to be that.
-- funnily enough. But what David Cameron has
-- funnily enough. But what David insignificant. Ever closer union...
I do not think it is the benefit side
I do not think it is the benefit Europeans stopped coming in from
this country, Europeans stopped coming in from
Your favourite phrase from the last few weeks of this renegotiation?
Your favourite phrase from the last brake, public services under strain.
Your favourite phrase from the last Red card, orange card, I had never
heard of an orange card. All this football analogy!
heard of an orange card. I like the way the emergency brake
used to apply to one thing and now applies to something else. It used
to mean we would stop anyone coming into the country. Now, it means we
discourage them. Language has changed since the days
of Geoffrey Howe where we would be getting on the train but did not
know the destination. Is that progress?
The EU is like a bicycle, if you stop pedalling, it falls over. We
will hear a lot more. Do you think it will be June 23? I
do. There is a strong momentum. If it runs into September or later,
there is a risk. In recent years, political parties
have shied away from pledging to increase taxes for
fear of losing votes. But today the Labour Party
in Scotland has broken with convention, and promised
to increase income tax in Scotland Here's the leader of
Scottish Labour, Kezia Dugdale, announcing the election
pledge this morning. Tomorrow, the Scottish fund will
vote on John Swinney's budget which contains hundreds of millions of
pounds of cuts to schools, public service. What I am saying is there
is a different path, we can choose to end Tory austerity. I propose to
increase the base of income tax so we do not have to accept these cuts
in Scotland. Iain Gray joins me now. These rate
would be higher than anywhere else in the UK, what is your message?
We are faced between swingeing cuts to schools and services, the choice
we are making is to use our powers to stop those cuts and invest in
schools. In a real sense, this is the
Scottish parliament coming of age, the Scottish rate of income tax is a
power we have, the SNP tell us they are opposed to cuts but they are
passing them on. It is not an election pledge because we will move
this for the budget which is before the Scottish parliament. This is
about the Scottish parliament saying our choices, cuts to schools, or
using the powers we have two stop those cuts in a way which is fair
and progressive because the policy includes a rebate for low-wage
workers and pensioners, and our choice is to stop those cuts.
James Dornan, the accusation is it is swingeing cuts from the SNP and
tax rises from Labour. Tats rises for Labour for the basic
rate income taxpayer. Swingeing cuts from the SNP. 2.2
million basic rate tax payers will be penalised by this dog thought out
policy. What Labour would be better off...
Pensioners will have a rebate. One in four workers will be no worse
off. This rebate which you haven't
costed, which I believe the Parliament doesn't have the power to
bring forward until it is made law, this is a back of the cigarette
packet taxation. Put something together for the debate today. It
makes a mockery of the process. Iain Gray, have you permission to do
this? A cashback system for taxpayers, a certain number as a
result of you putting up income tax by 1p in the pound.
The policy is costed, ?50 million for workers, ?25 million for
pensioners. It would be paid using powers through local Government,
councils, using powers they already have. A string of council leaders
have come out to say they see no problem with this. We have been here
before. When we argued using the powers of local authorities in
Scotland to mitigate the bedroom tats, the SNP said it was
impossible. Until the pressure group on them and they had to admit it
could be done, and on that occasion they came up with it. I am tired of
the SNP telling us what they cannot do to stand up against austerity.
They pass the cuts on. We will not be allows basic tax payers, half a
million pensioners, for a headline. What will you do, make swingeing
cuts to education, to balance the books?
Swingeing cuts is an emotive phrase. This is a very difficult budget. It
can be done, a budget which has 2% less money than previously. Compare
that to down south where there are cuts of up to 64%.
What cuts are you making? You said it was an emotive phrase, what level
of cuts will you make to services? These services are delivered by
local authorities. The cut to the budget is about 2%.
Unbelievably better. If the authorities make big cuts,
Willie mitigate that by trying to increase income tax which you can
do? Does anybody realise the swingeing
cuts the Scottish Government is facing from Westminster? The local
authorities have been protected much better in Scotland.
You don't have to live within a fixed budget. Be honest with our
voters and the viewers. You can do something to mitigate that. You do
have the powers to do something to raise money but you choose not to
which is a credible position but not true that you don't have the power
to mitigate. To penalised lower rate tax payers?
Isn't it an actual suicide to put up income tax, to say, we are going to
hit half a million pensioners with an income tax by it?
We are not. As I try to say, with the rebate, one in four workers and
pensioners with low incomes will be no worse off, and one in five will
actually be better off. Your viewers may be surprised to
know, having heard the likes of Nicola Sturgeon last year in the
election, that the SNP have imposed cuts on education in Scotland far
greater than even the Tories have in England, and it has to stop. We have
almost 4000 fewer teachers in our schools. 150,000 fewer students in
our college. I don't praise the Tories...
Hang on, let him finish. Then he will have a right to reply.
Viewers will be surprised to know the SNP have imposed cuts in
education greater than even the Tories and it has to stop. This is
the way in which we can stop those cuts and have the chance to do that
tomorrow. Answer the allegations about those
cuts to education that have resulted in far fewer teachers.
Is that what you have been doing? It is local authorities who decides the
numbers of teachers, money has been made available to them to keep
teachers. Some local authorities have been unwilling or unable to do
so. We have offered can incentivise them
to do so and they haven't. What will you do to stop them?
The package to local authorities which some of Iain Gray's colleagues
have content bout, has more funding to ensure teacher numbers are
staying the same, we are already doing that.
This begs the question if the Scottish Labour Party want to do
this, what is Jeremy Corbyn going to do? They could use the same
arguments in England. The one person who will be laughing is Ruth
Davidson, the Scottish Tory leader, they are on the verge of overtaking
Labour as the second part in Scotland.
Iain Gray, she has said increasing income tax rates would hit every
basic rate taxpayer, she agrees with the SNP. Let me just get Iain Gray.
I think Mr Dolan will find they don't take the same view as him.
There is no surprise. Ruth Davidson is a Tory, trotting out arguments
from the 80s that tax cuts are more important than investing in our
children and their future, and the economic prosperity of the country.
I speak to people doing business in Scotland all the time. The thing
they look for more than anything is investment in education and skills
so we have the best workforce. We used to have the best system in the
world in education, we can have it again.
Last month we featured a short film from the journalist
Richard Norton Taylor, who argued that Britain gave
up its sovereignty claim over Gibraltar.
Well, shortly afterwards the chief minister of Gibraltar got in touch
with us, wanting to give us his point of view.
Gibraltar has long been an important British military asset.
During the Second World War, the Allies used
Gibraltar, having created an airfield where we are today,
to push into North Africa and, in that way,
turn the tide against the Nazi forces.
Today, Britain continues to have a small military presence
in Gibraltar, with its naval base and iconic airfield.
Both are ready to be used at zero notice.
It places British forces 1,000 miles up theatre
And, apart from that investment in the
defence of Gibraltar on Britain's forward mounting base on the shores
of the Mediterranean, Gibraltar is entirely self-sufficient.
In these buildings behind me, modern Gibraltar enjoys
an avant-garde online gaming industry and insurance
industry that is the envy of the rest of the European Union,
the single market of which is essential
While Spain struggles with record levels of
unemployment, Gibraltar supports a quarter of the permanent jobs
recorded in this region of Andalusia.
The benefits of a British Gibraltar in Europe are recognised
across the world, and so our lawyers and economists are already exploring
strategies for Gibraltar to maintain these benefits even in the unlikely
event of a British exit from the European Union.
Every morning, 10,000 people come across this
frontier from Spain, from the neighbouring region,
It's almost like people coming into Liverpool Street station
to come into the City of London to work there.
The people of Gibraltar and the Spanish people
of the neighbouring region have always got
We do business together, we fall in love, we marry,
The confrontation between Gibraltar and
Spain comes only as a result of the medieval sovereignty
Left alone and to our own devices, we would invest all the time
we spend disputing the sovereignty of
Gibraltar working together to strengthen the economy
Gibraltar is tiny, why shouldn't its sovereignty at least be discussed?
We don't call it a colony, would call it an overseas territory. The
principal issue is the principle of consent. Why should anything other
than the will of the people of Gibraltan be relevant to any
decision made about the political future of Gibraltar? The UK goes to
war over the right of people to decide. It is extremely unlikely
Spain would ever invade writ -ish Gibraltar so aren't these
sovereignty squabbles just a distraction when there are far
bigger issues to be thinking about? Absolutely. We want to maintain the
sovereignty which has been the status quo now for more than 310
years. The issue is that Spain continues to raise the sovereignty
of Gibraltar. The post-2nd World War borders are considered settled in
the whole of Europe. Can't we simply accept this border was drawn 310
years ago, accepted after the Second World War and get on with it,
spending time bringing prosperity to people on both sides? Are tensions
the rise? No, they were about three years ago. Now there is a limbo
period and things are a lot calmer. What would an exit from the European
Union mean for Gibraltar? There are different permutations, but it would
still have access to the single market, in that case it would not be
dreadful for Gibraltar. As long as the free movement of people is
maintained we could find a way to maintain the prosperity of the
region, but Gibraltar is all in favour of the UK remaining in the
European Union? All in favour? I represent 68% of the people
according to the last poll. We all have a vote, and we will be able to.
We have the royal assent for Gibraltar union. Could Gibraltar
find a way to stay in the EU if the rest of the UK decided to leave?
That would be difficult but Gibraltar could try to maintain some
of the bits of the European Union rules that the UK might not like, so
there could be a hybrid type of I hesitate to save membership but a
hybrid type of status within the single market, but those are issues
we should not countenance now. We should continue our efforts been
nudging the UK towards a positive vote in the referendum. It doesn't
sound like you have been preparing for the possibility of a Brexit.
Because understanding parts of the economy that might need to be
repositioned is not something you can do at this stage. Hardly a
surprise really, listening to Fabian in terms of how he says people would
vote in Gibraltar on the EU referendum. No, and in the end this
is all about self-determination. If you believe in self-determination
and you will not question the status of Gibraltar, but there is a patchy
reputation. Are you worried the Labour Party's position on Gibraltar
might change in the near future? The position on Gibraltar is very clear,
it was actually the Labour Party who said they wouldn't just not
negotiate the future of Gibraltar without the consensus of the people
of Gibraltar, they wouldn't even enter into negotiations. Tony Blair
did take action in 2007... After we gave him a bloody nose, nothing has
happened since then. They have talked about the Falkland Islands in
a way that I don't think is appropriate, but I'm meeting the
shadow Minister for Europe tomorrow and I'm sure... Who is that this
week? To discuss this or you want reassurance? To reassure us the
Labour Party status is as has been, and I'm confident that is the case.
Thank you. In the last few minutes,
David Cameron has been talking about the draft deal on EU reform
he's agreed with the president of the European Council,
Donald Tusk. Ted Cruz came out on top
of the Republican presidential hopeful pack last night in Iowa,
pushing favourite Donald Trump In the first primary of this year's
presidential election, the Democratic contest
also produced surprises, as frontrunner Hillary Clinton beat
Vermont senator Bernie Sanders Here's what the candidates
had to say last night. Tonight is a victory
for the grassroots. "Do not go to Iowa, you could never
finish even in the top ten." And I said, but I have friends
in Iowa, I know a lot of people in Iowa, I think they will really
like me, let's give it a shot. I'm just honoured,
I'm really honoured. Tonight, here in Iowa,
the people of this great state sends After seven years of Barack Obama,
we are not waiting any longer And that is why what Iowa
has begun tonight is As I stand here tonight,
breathing a great sigh of relief, And we've been joined
by Kate Andrews And Robert Carolina,
from Democrats Abroad. An exciting night? Very exciting
night. Donald Trump, who has been spoken about as the front runner,
had a terrible night. Not only did Ted Cruz take the victory but
Senator Rubio was one percentage point away from beating him. Did you
expect Ted Cruz to pick Donald Trump? Personally yesterday I
thought Ted Cruz was just going to take it but I was deeply worried. I
was a little bit panicked and I thought Donald Trump could take this
because the nation is known for choosing a very socially
Conservative candidate, someone a bit more radical, which is precisely
what they have done, but Ted Cruz as an alternative candidate. Is Donald
Trump's lost a sign that media attention doesn't necessarily
translate into success? It is hard to say whether the media is
responsible or not for who won last night but... You disagree? Donald
Trump has opened up a third lane of politics, he has split out from the
establishment crowd and the social Conservative crowd and opened up
this third branch of people who are literally afraid for their lives
because they are worried about their jobs and securing their future. From
where I sit, I'm looking at three candidates, none of whom won this
particular caucus. In terms of delegates they have picked up from
the Republican convention, it is eight, seven, and seven as they
leave Iowa. Is that different from the Democrat result? Yes, in a
number of ways. In terms of Secretary Clinton and Bernie
Sanders, statistically this is as close to tie as you can possibly
get, and they come out pretty evenly. With the Democrat delegate
selection process, we never operate a winner takes all system in the
various caucuses and primaries. The Republicans often do, not in Iowa
but in other states. The Republicans will arrive in Cleveland and still
don't know who their candidate is. This is extremely worrying for
Hillary Clinton, isn't it? She has lost pretty much all the games you
have built up. Over in the Democratic party, we are proud of
both of our candidates who remain in the primary process. That is very
fair view! Both of them are in very strong positions, no matter which
emerges as the front runner. I am going to be more generous to Hillary
Clinton, I thought she did very well last night. 43% of the Iowans
self-identity a socialist, but she last night. 43% of the Iowans
narrowly held her ground. It is last night. 43% of the Iowans
it means for the next election. last night. 43% of the Iowans
is it about a country of 300 million people and the best you can
is it about a country of 300 million with the three Republicans we have
got the and two Democrats we have I really follow American presidential
politics, really follow American presidential
group of candidate in the last 30 or 40 years. I'm shocked you say that.
group of candidate in the last 30 or The Republicans have put up such a
wide variety of candidates. Too wide, one might argue. Perhaps, but
Senator Marco Rubio has almost the same back story as President Barack
Obama. He hasn't been doing very well until now, that's the point.
Ted Cruz has been the only one chasing Donald Trump and he is
similar. In 2008 the person who chasing Donald Trump and he is
ended up becoming the nominee didn't win Iowa. It develops over time. It
was the most difficult for the Democrats to beat? Out of these
three, none of them I think. I would be happy to take on any of them in
three, none of them I think. I would general election because none of
them have particularly positive vision for America. I suppose you
would take that. Would Marco Rubio not be the most tricky for Hillary
Clinton for example? He is her worst nightmare. Hillary Clinton is
looking at an FBI investigation. We are getting closer every day now,
and you don't think any Republicans can take her on? Have a very capable
former Secretary of State and Senator, a very competent and
capable senator from the state of Vermont, someone who has brought the
word socialism into the mainstream of American politics for the first
time in 100 years. We have two candidates representing key values
about the need to support people who are struggling, who are hungry and
sick and need health care. We have two candidates on target to win.
Hillary Clinton is a candidate who failed in 2008, eight years on and
she is still considered by many to be a failure. On the other side,
Ronald Reagan must be turning in his grave at the thought of one of these
minuscule figures succeeding him. One of them will have to at one
stage. What is it about Bernie Sanders that has propelled him to
the forefront of the race on the Democrat side? Both candidates have
survived to this point because they share a similar vision for America,
which has to do with this need to believe... I don't think she
believes it. The believe there is a proper role for government in
helping the sick and the pork and that's why our party is holding its
primaries... Very briefly, New Hampshire primary, who wins? I think
Marco Rubio's momentum will go upwards. It is not for me to say.
There's just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz.
The question was, how did Lib Dem leader Tim Farron think
Was it a) As the man who saved the Liberal Democrats
b) The first Liberal Prime Minister in over a hundred years
I think he is underestimated, we will be hearing a lot more from him.
Thanks to Iain Dale and all my guests.
The One O'Clock News is starting over on BBC One now.
I'll be back at 11.30am tomorrow with Andrew for live coverage
Jo Coburn is joined by broadcaster Iain Dale for a look at the details of the draft deal between Britain and the EU. They get the thoughts of Conservative MPs Steve Baker, who supports Britain leaving the EU, and Nick Herbert, who wants the UK to stay. They also look at Scottish Labour's proposals to raise income tax and analyse the implications of the Iowa vote in the US presidential election.