02/02/2016 Daily Politics

Hello, and welcome to the Daily Politics.

David Cameron claims he's made real progress in his negotiations for EU

reform, as a draft deal is published.

But the Prime Minister hasn't achieved his manifesto pledge

to stop EU migrants claiming child benefit for children living abroad.

The draft deal comes after detailed negotiations with the President

of the European Council, Donald Tusk, but the PM still needs

to win the support of all 27 other EU countries.

Scottish Labour pledge to raise income tax north of the border

by one penny in the pound, ahead of elections to

We'll hear from Labour's Iain Gray and the SNP.

And, across the Atlantic, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

suffer setbacks in their campaigns to win the White House,

as both frontrunners under-perform in Iowa.

As I stand here tonight, breathing a big sigh of relief -

of the programme today is the writer, broadcaster,

publisher and former Conservative Party candidate,

So, it's a big day for David Cameron as the details of a draft EU reform

We'll get into the detail of that in a moment.

But, first, Iain, you present a radio phone-in programme.

How much attention to all this do you think the public is paying

There is an interest, I did a phone in on this last night and, in the

past, phone on Europe do not gain hundreds of calls. Last night, there

was an appetite for this. The public mood is different from

Westminster where the consensus seems to be the leave campaigns seem

to be in chaos. It is the Britain stronger in Europe people who are

making waves. I do not think that is reflected in

the electorate. Most people look at David Cameron's

so-called renegotiation and wonder. If he can't achieve this with these

small demands, what can he achieved? The child benefit thing most people

think, how can it be right to send money out of this country to people

live abroad? That was a key pledge in the

manifesto. When you say the voting electorate

don't reflect the way we are reporting it, is that because they

are undecided, or are they family in the leave campaign?

A lot of people are undecided, I am. I regard myself as a Euro septic,

but I haven't made that decision yet. Neither of the campaigns have

made their cases, there is a long way to go.

The challenge for the people who say we should leave is to say, what kind

of Britain but we have if we did leave? We are getting scare stories

from both campaigns about terrible things.

Will you be persuaded by the end of this programme after the detail?

Is this a challenge you are up to? We can try.

Correct, Tim Farron, he has been asked in an interview how

So, our question for today is, what did he say?

Was it as the man who saved the Liberal Democrats?

The first Liberal Prime Minister in over 100 years?

At the end of the show, Iain will give us the correct answer.

In the last half-an-hour, the detail of a draft deal on EU

reform has been published by the President of the European

David Cameron says it shows he's made real progress on his list

of demands, but that some of the detail still needs

It's been a long, hard trek for the Prime Minister

The first milestone of David Cameron's renegotiation

tour, after leaving base camp, was to secure for the UK an opt-out

With Eurozone economies across the continent having been

buffeted by cold winds in the past few years, the Prime Minister

was also keen to ensure protection in the single market

The toughest section of the PM's expedition has been his attempt

to restrict in-work benefits for EU migrants for four years.

Last week, it emerged that one way across that rocky terrain would be

for the UK to apply a so-called emergency brake, where the UK

would be allowed to restrict migrant benefits if it could prove public

services were under excessive strain.

But, even then, other EU countries would have to agree,

Today, the end is in sight for David Cameron's tour.

He's touting a potential new red card system as the answer

New EU laws could be vetoed if 55% of national parliaments vote to do

so, with each of the 28 EU countries having two votes.

And, regardless of the merits of the proposals today,

Donald Tusk's draft agreement must be agreed by other EU heads

of government at the meeting of the European Council this month.

Until then, it'll be up to the so-called sherpas in Brussels

and Whitehall to smooth the path to the summit.

Here's what the Prime Minister had to say earlier today about the deal

On so many things, I was told these things would be impossible.

legislation, people said you wouldn't get that,

before getting in-work benefits in Britain, it's

of the concept of ever-closer union, again, pretty clearly set out

So, real progress, more work to be done, more detail to be nailed down,

but we said we needed to deliver in four key areas and this document

We can talk now to our deputy political editor James Landale,

who has been speed-reading the draft deal.

Can you give us an idea of how this document compared with the demands

David Cameron originally made? He has a chunk of what he asked for

but not everything. In terms of the headline, the areas where he has

made more progress on issues of sovereignty, governance

made more progress on issues of opposition. Way he has not made

enough progress is over the opposition. Way he has not made

curbing migration. He has his immensely break but it is not clear

when and how that will be pulled. immensely break but it is not clear

There is also a question of graduation, a word we will be

talking about today. This document says, yes, if this is agreed, EU

migrants with have benefits restricted further four years, but

it could be restored during that period, as EU workers contribute to

the system and can claim benefit. One area where there is more work to

be done. On the red card system?

It is there, a development of the existing procedure. It will allow,

if 55% of national pundits agreed to block a new proposal, only new

proposals, it can't review of proposals.

It had to deal with subsidiarity and proportionality. It had to deal

with, is this something Brussels should do all the national

parliaments? Broadly, do you think it is enough

to satisfy those who are already supporting the Prime Minister, but

those who are not decided? People who do not want the UK to

stay in the EU clearly say it is not enough. Others will say, is this the

earth shattering fundamental reform the Prime Minister promised?

That is harder to argue. I think the Government and Prime Minister will

say this is enough to allow them, if agreed, we have another fortnight,

they will think this document is enough for the Prime Minister to say

to the country we should stay in. Thank you.

We've been joined by the former Conservative minister Nick Herbert

who is leading the pro-EU campaign Conservatives For Reform.

And by the Conservative MP Steve Baker who runs

Conservatives For Britain, and is campaigning for Britain

Welcome to you. Nick Herbert, let us look at child benefit. The manifesto

said if an EU migrant child is living abroad, they should receive

no child benefit or child tax credits, no matter how long they

have worked in the UK tax they paid. David Cameron has achieved, has

failed to achieve that? It is a different means of the same

outcome and the effect will be there will be sadness because child

benefit will not be paid in anything like the same rate to people who

have come in who are EU migrants. It won't have the perverse effect of

encouraging people to bring in their children. So I think it is a

sensible outcome. It restores fairness to the system.

That is not the same as saying they will receive no child benefit or

child tax credit. It will be reduced and index linked.

It is not the same but the practical effect will be the same. It will

restore fairness. Explain how it will be the same, if

the manifesto said people will not receive any child benefit in their

country of origin, they will still receive money at a reduced rate.

Because the level of pay will not be at the same rate and it. People

bringing children of which is otherwise how they might have

responded. It does restore fairness people want to see.

The emergency brake, in terms of benefit comic in work benefits for

EU migrants. Do we know how long it will be in place for?

This is subject to renegotiation. There is further negotiation to do.

Things seem to be moving the Prime Minister's way. He has been clear he

wants to ensure this is a practical and effective measure and has

secured an understanding, and I think this will be absolutely clear

that the emergency brake would be pulled immediately. That is what I

think the country wants to know. They want immediate action to deal

with the levels of net migration we have.

How will net migration go down under emergency brake?

We know there is a significant draw factor from the payment of in work

benefits. What percentage of EU migrants are drawn to Britain purely

for in work benefits? I don't think we have done, I don't

think that can commission has been done.

The draw factor is considerable because, says would tell you if you

are topping up people's net salary by 50% by paying in work benefits, a

payment of ?6,000 a year or more, that is an unnatural draw for people

to come. This is a sensible approach, and introduces fairness.

It is very popular, the public want this because they don't think it is

right when we have a system which requires, does not require you to

pay first, people are coming from countries where you do have to pay

in first. This levels the playing field. You

don't know by how much it would bring down the net migration which

stands at 330,000 a year. It does not restrict the freedom of movement

of people within the EU. No, the promised says we subscribe

to the printable of freedom of movement. But we have border

control. We prevent EU nationals coming into this country if they

pose a risk. Part of the renegotiation is to tighten up those

proposals. It was not true we don't have borders. People have the right

to come to work but not the right to come and claim. That will address

the problem of very high levels of people being drawn artificially.

This is a good proposal and addresses those concerns.

Steve Baker, this is progress. It is better than what exists in the mind

of the Prime Minister, you have to accept that?

Progress of a kind but falls short of what people want. It is a bad

joke. Which people? Conservative MPs I

talk to and in our constituencies. Within the political class, people

no immigration is a top issue. The Office for Budget Responsibility

told us on the Treasury committee the proposal to have an emergency

brake on benefits would not make much difference. The break comes in

after there is a provable problem and only with permission of other

people. This clarifies the choice. If people want to take back control

to our Parliament so our Prime Minister can decide how to operate

our benefits and who can live in our country, the anything they can do is

to take control and govern our country.

And that's true, isn't it? No, it is an entirely false prospectus. Free

movement is a condition of access to the single market. It is false but

leaving would immediately enabled this problem to be dealt with,

that's why the Prime Minister's approach is more pragmatic. On the

Office for Budget Responsibility, it was a response from a member of the

Office for Budget Responsibility who said he didn't know, the work hadn't

been done. He didn't say it was the formal position that this wouldn't

address net migration, common tells us will. What would you say about

that because you have been rubbishing everything the Prime

Minister has tried to do since the negotiations started? I said we

wanted to end the automatic supremacy of EU laws. The Foreign

Secretary went on the Andrew Marr Show and said the Government would

not be asking for it, it was tantamount to exit. From then the

die was cast. We want the public to have a high quality debate, which

you are giving, but the reality is clear that the Prime Minister is

negotiating to keep us in the EU and that means policy operated on the

basis of EU citizenship. That means this mess rather than the clarity of

our Parliament deciding. Do you think the document is worth the

paper it is written on? I don't want to insult the document, we need to

look at it and decide what we think of it but personally I think there

will be nothing in it that withstands serious scrutiny. We have

talked about child benefit and curbs on migration, let's talk about the

red card system. What's the difference between the red card

system being proposed in this document and the current yellow and

orange card system that exists? The red card system is binding. It means

the national parliaments, if they clubbed together and disagree with

the proposal from the council, can stop it in its tracks and that's a

very important... The Council or the commission? The parliament can

stop... That is before the council has even considered it. One of the

criticisms Stephen and I would have made of the EU is there is not

enough democracy in it. Why this proposal is so important is that it

allows national parliaments to block measures, it restores an important

say and power to national parliaments, yes, when they clubbed

together but it does give them that power. They already had that power

of course under the yellow and orange card system for national

parliaments to club together and tried to block. How many times has

it been used in the past five or six years? Not enough. That's because it

doesn't have the actual effect of stopping the proposal. We would

agree about that. It needs to stopping the proposal. We would

measure that has bite, that can stop things in their

measure that has bite, that can stop it is a red card, not a

measure that has bite, that can stop orange card, that's why this is a

significant development. orange card, that's why this is a

time we have heard criticism that we don't have

time we have heard criticism that we welcome this. Is

time we have heard criticism that we is that this is a useless system. If

the regulation is that this is a useless system. If

which is universally opposed by is that this is a useless system. If

lawyers and the Government, in such circumstances presumably we would

try to trigger the system. What are the chances that the rest of Europe

would join us in stopping it, unless we can veto rules which are

inappropriate and against our strategic interests, we are not in

the right place. What are the chances of getting 50% of national

parliaments to sign up to a common proposal to block what the

commission is doing? Much greater when they know they can block

something. It is a new system but it... History says it has

something. It is a new system but used twice before, that is because

it is so difficult to achieve, to get that many countries on board.

But you would be incentivised when you know it has the real effect.

This was one of the key negotiating aims and I think the Prime Minister

was right to say it is a potential achievement. We have a veto in lots

of key areas, not all decisions are taken by qualified voting, and the

decisions can be blocked by the country's leaders. The reason this

is a reform is that it will not just be the country's leaders who can

block things, it is their parliaments. Why do you think Boris

Johnson doesn't like it? He said it is trivial, it means nothing, this

red card system. I wonder if he said about this proposal. Yes, he said it

about this proposal. I doubt that. My view on the red card thing, it is

not going to be enough, we need something more. We have got enough

and -- if you look at the overall picture. There is the binding

commitment that Britain will not be part of an ever closer union. There

are these other measures and the totality of it is that we are not

just been further integration, we are putting it into reverse. What is

your impression, having heard this discussion now? You were undecided,

are you still undecided? I think a little bit of progress has been made

on his terms but frankly the whole thing is a joke. The terms they use,

the red card system, the break and the rest of it, what will that mean

to people down the pub? Absolutely nothing. They want the British

Parliament to have influence on this and at the moment the British

Parliament has very little influence. We cannot stop things.

The child benefit thing, I'm afraid will go down like a cup of cold sick

with people. One of the criticisms is that your side is not actually

presenting a comprehensive opposition to stay in the EU

campaign. You are split, there is no big personality leading your side,

they are running rings around you. I don't accept that for one moment.

You don't have a leader and you are split! We have secured the

objectives we set for ourselves. It would be lovely to have a figure of

enormous stature... Like Boris Johnson or Theresa May. The reality

is that the enthusiasm and energy is on our side of the argument. The

problem for your side of the argument is that it has always been

this way. The Eurosceptic movement, to coin a phrase, has always been

fractured. People look at you and think if you cannot agree with each

other on the way to go, how can we trust you in the argument you make?

You will know that all insurgencies have this problem, ever since the

Judaean people's front until today! What I will say to everybody who

wants to leave, please concentrate on the strategic goal, make your

case with decency, but don't blame each other and have a go at each

other's character. The energy and enthusiasm is on our side, the other

case is about fear. Thank you for clarifying. From the people's front

of Judaea, and the Judaea and people's front, thank you very much.

Over the past few months, David Cameron has been at pains

to demonstrate he's been fighting hard for a good deal on EU reform.

But leave campaigners are sceptical about the way the PM's negotiations

have been presented, suggesting that there was always

going to be a tough final push for a last-minute deal.

Here's a reminder of how the negotiations have played out.

Today marks a significant milestone, really,in the process of saying

it is right for Britain to have this renegotiation,

The fundamental values of the European Union

I don't want the British to leave, and I don't

They have their points, we have our points.

As reasonable people, we will find a way out

of the complicated situation we are in.

I am open to listening to alternative solutions.

As we have agreed at the Council, we should be looking for solutions,

The prize is closer than it was, and I will work round-the-clock

I can hold my referendum at any time, up until the end of 2017.

If there is goodwill and hard work, we will be able to achieve

There is now a proposal on the table.

We've been joined by the chief political commentator

at the Independent on Sunday, John Rentoul.

Welcome back to the Daily Politics. Can David Cameron sell this document

on EU renegotiation as a diplomatic victory? That's the question because

what I'm most impressed by in the opinion polls is the finding that

suggests that if the Prime Minister recommends a deal, it is all over.

The referendum is easily won because by a margin of 3-1, people will be

guided by what he says. If the Prime Minister can convincingly say this

is a substantial improvement, a big deal and I recommend it to the

country, I think that is game over. Do you think all of the dramatic

build-up, starting with David Cameron saying how hard they are all

working, they would be working hard to achieve a negotiation, from

Donald Tusk saying no deal on Sunday to then a couple of days later

saying this is a deal, and others saying it has been manufactured. I'm

a cynic, I think the deal was always available, from whence David Cameron

gave his speech in November. I think when he set it out, he knew he could

achieve it and he's on the verge of doing so. I think you will be able

to claim that as a triumph. In a way he has achieved that, he has driven

this reform. There may be other EU national parliaments who wanted some

reforms on benefits to EU migrants but he has pushed it to the top of

the agenda. He has four agendas, three of which are motherhood and

apple pie. He knew he was going to get three of the four, he set up the

fourth is a bit of an aunt Sally so that he could look tough and in the

end he probably won't get or wanted. This is not renegotiating Britain's

terms of membership, it is looking at four meaningless aspects of it.

I'm not sure I agree with what John says about these polls that if the

Prime Minister recommends staying in, that will be a big win for the

stay campaign because there is such an anti-Westminster feeling in the

country at the moment that a lot of people will say if he recommends it,

I'm not voting for it. Not just Labour voters, people who are

natural Conservatives. If you look at the answers people give to

pollsters, they say that if the Prime Minister recommends it they

will vote for it. Pollsters have not always been right in this country.

In recent times! Do you have an alternative way of gauging it? My

radio show! I will stick with the opinion polls. How important is

choreography in this, because so much language has been used to

dramatic effect in this, which I haven't seen for quite a long time,

and doesn't have an impact in terms of not just the public but also how

it is received by the press and Westminster bubble, and to some

extent are responsible for putting the message out?

The idea it will be a two shirt summit, working until 3am because it

is difficult. Actually, that does reflect the fact

what David Cameron is doing is quite difficult.

I am cynical that he thought he could achieve it all along.

It is not easy. There is a knot of opposition.

The European Union is basically on reform of all, 28 countries to agree

on anything substantial. They might agree to the sort of thing he is

talking about but it is not substantial and people will see

through it. Will they feel there has been

progress particularly on the issue of in work benefits, symbolically,

it will sound powerful. It is not fundamental to the

European Union. What you would like to

area. Funny laugh, it used to be that.

That Funny laugh, it used to be that.

-- funnily enough. But what David Cameron has

-- funnily enough. But what David insignificant. Ever closer union...

I do not think it is the benefit side

I do not think it is the benefit Europeans stopped coming in from

this country, Europeans stopped coming in from

Your favourite phrase from the last few weeks of this renegotiation?

Your favourite phrase from the last brake, public services under strain.

Your favourite phrase from the last Red card, orange card, I had never

heard of an orange card. All this football analogy!

heard of an orange card. I like the way the emergency brake

used to apply to one thing and now applies to something else. It used

to mean we would stop anyone coming into the country. Now, it means we

discourage them. Language has changed since the days

of Geoffrey Howe where we would be getting on the train but did not

know the destination. Is that progress?

The EU is like a bicycle, if you stop pedalling, it falls over. We

will hear a lot more. Do you think it will be June 23? I

do. There is a strong momentum. If it runs into September or later,

there is a risk. In recent years, political parties

have shied away from pledging to increase taxes for

fear of losing votes. But today the Labour Party

in Scotland has broken with convention, and promised

to increase income tax in Scotland Here's the leader of

Scottish Labour, Kezia Dugdale, announcing the election

pledge this morning. Tomorrow, the Scottish fund will

vote on John Swinney's budget which contains hundreds of millions of

pounds of cuts to schools, public service. What I am saying is there

is a different path, we can choose to end Tory austerity. I propose to

increase the base of income tax so we do not have to accept these cuts

in Scotland. Iain Gray joins me now. These rate

would be higher than anywhere else in the UK, what is your message?

We are faced between swingeing cuts to schools and services, the choice

we are making is to use our powers to stop those cuts and invest in

schools. In a real sense, this is the

Scottish parliament coming of age, the Scottish rate of income tax is a

power we have, the SNP tell us they are opposed to cuts but they are

passing them on. It is not an election pledge because we will move

this for the budget which is before the Scottish parliament. This is

about the Scottish parliament saying our choices, cuts to schools, or

using the powers we have two stop those cuts in a way which is fair

and progressive because the policy includes a rebate for low-wage

workers and pensioners, and our choice is to stop those cuts.

James Dornan, the accusation is it is swingeing cuts from the SNP and

tax rises from Labour. Tats rises for Labour for the basic

rate income taxpayer. Swingeing cuts from the SNP. 2.2

million basic rate tax payers will be penalised by this dog thought out

policy. What Labour would be better off...

Pensioners will have a rebate. One in four workers will be no worse

off. This rebate which you haven't

costed, which I believe the Parliament doesn't have the power to

bring forward until it is made law, this is a back of the cigarette

packet taxation. Put something together for the debate today. It

makes a mockery of the process. Iain Gray, have you permission to do

this? A cashback system for taxpayers, a certain number as a

result of you putting up income tax by 1p in the pound.

The policy is costed, ?50 million for workers, ?25 million for

pensioners. It would be paid using powers through local Government,

councils, using powers they already have. A string of council leaders

have come out to say they see no problem with this. We have been here

before. When we argued using the powers of local authorities in

Scotland to mitigate the bedroom tats, the SNP said it was

impossible. Until the pressure group on them and they had to admit it

could be done, and on that occasion they came up with it. I am tired of

the SNP telling us what they cannot do to stand up against austerity.

They pass the cuts on. We will not be allows basic tax payers, half a

million pensioners, for a headline. What will you do, make swingeing

cuts to education, to balance the books?

Swingeing cuts is an emotive phrase. This is a very difficult budget. It

can be done, a budget which has 2% less money than previously. Compare

that to down south where there are cuts of up to 64%.

What cuts are you making? You said it was an emotive phrase, what level

of cuts will you make to services? These services are delivered by

local authorities. The cut to the budget is about 2%.

Unbelievably better. If the authorities make big cuts,

Willie mitigate that by trying to increase income tax which you can

do? Does anybody realise the swingeing

cuts the Scottish Government is facing from Westminster? The local

authorities have been protected much better in Scotland.

You don't have to live within a fixed budget. Be honest with our

voters and the viewers. You can do something to mitigate that. You do

have the powers to do something to raise money but you choose not to

which is a credible position but not true that you don't have the power

to mitigate. To penalised lower rate tax payers?

Isn't it an actual suicide to put up income tax, to say, we are going to

hit half a million pensioners with an income tax by it?

We are not. As I try to say, with the rebate, one in four workers and

pensioners with low incomes will be no worse off, and one in five will

actually be better off. Your viewers may be surprised to

know, having heard the likes of Nicola Sturgeon last year in the

election, that the SNP have imposed cuts on education in Scotland far

greater than even the Tories have in England, and it has to stop. We have

almost 4000 fewer teachers in our schools. 150,000 fewer students in

our college. I don't praise the Tories...

Hang on, let him finish. Then he will have a right to reply.

Viewers will be surprised to know the SNP have imposed cuts in

education greater than even the Tories and it has to stop. This is

the way in which we can stop those cuts and have the chance to do that

tomorrow. Answer the allegations about those

cuts to education that have resulted in far fewer teachers.

Is that what you have been doing? It is local authorities who decides the

numbers of teachers, money has been made available to them to keep

teachers. Some local authorities have been unwilling or unable to do

so. We have offered can incentivise them

to do so and they haven't. What will you do to stop them?

The package to local authorities which some of Iain Gray's colleagues

have content bout, has more funding to ensure teacher numbers are

staying the same, we are already doing that.

This begs the question if the Scottish Labour Party want to do

this, what is Jeremy Corbyn going to do? They could use the same

arguments in England. The one person who will be laughing is Ruth

Davidson, the Scottish Tory leader, they are on the verge of overtaking

Labour as the second part in Scotland.

Iain Gray, she has said increasing income tax rates would hit every

basic rate taxpayer, she agrees with the SNP. Let me just get Iain Gray.

I think Mr Dolan will find they don't take the same view as him.

There is no surprise. Ruth Davidson is a Tory, trotting out arguments

from the 80s that tax cuts are more important than investing in our

children and their future, and the economic prosperity of the country.

I speak to people doing business in Scotland all the time. The thing

they look for more than anything is investment in education and skills

so we have the best workforce. We used to have the best system in the

world in education, we can have it again.

Last month we featured a short film from the journalist

Richard Norton Taylor, who argued that Britain gave

up its sovereignty claim over Gibraltar.

Well, shortly afterwards the chief minister of Gibraltar got in touch

with us, wanting to give us his point of view.

Gibraltar has long been an important British military asset.

During the Second World War, the Allies used

Gibraltar, having created an airfield where we are today,

to push into North Africa and, in that way,

turn the tide against the Nazi forces.

Today, Britain continues to have a small military presence

in Gibraltar, with its naval base and iconic airfield.

Both are ready to be used at zero notice.

It places British forces 1,000 miles up theatre

And, apart from that investment in the

defence of Gibraltar on Britain's forward mounting base on the shores

of the Mediterranean, Gibraltar is entirely self-sufficient.

In these buildings behind me, modern Gibraltar enjoys

an avant-garde online gaming industry and insurance

industry that is the envy of the rest of the European Union,

the single market of which is essential

While Spain struggles with record levels of

unemployment, Gibraltar supports a quarter of the permanent jobs

recorded in this region of Andalusia.

The benefits of a British Gibraltar in Europe are recognised

across the world, and so our lawyers and economists are already exploring

strategies for Gibraltar to maintain these benefits even in the unlikely

event of a British exit from the European Union.

Every morning, 10,000 people come across this

frontier from Spain, from the neighbouring region,

It's almost like people coming into Liverpool Street station

to come into the City of London to work there.

The people of Gibraltar and the Spanish people

of the neighbouring region have always got

We do business together, we fall in love, we marry,

The confrontation between Gibraltar and

Spain comes only as a result of the medieval sovereignty

Left alone and to our own devices, we would invest all the time

we spend disputing the sovereignty of

Gibraltar working together to strengthen the economy

Gibraltar is tiny, why shouldn't its sovereignty at least be discussed?

We don't call it a colony, would call it an overseas territory. The

principal issue is the principle of consent. Why should anything other

than the will of the people of Gibraltan be relevant to any

decision made about the political future of Gibraltar? The UK goes to

war over the right of people to decide. It is extremely unlikely

Spain would ever invade writ -ish Gibraltar so aren't these

sovereignty squabbles just a distraction when there are far

bigger issues to be thinking about? Absolutely. We want to maintain the

sovereignty which has been the status quo now for more than 310

years. The issue is that Spain continues to raise the sovereignty

of Gibraltar. The post-2nd World War borders are considered settled in

the whole of Europe. Can't we simply accept this border was drawn 310

years ago, accepted after the Second World War and get on with it,

spending time bringing prosperity to people on both sides? Are tensions

the rise? No, they were about three years ago. Now there is a limbo

period and things are a lot calmer. What would an exit from the European

Union mean for Gibraltar? There are different permutations, but it would

still have access to the single market, in that case it would not be

dreadful for Gibraltar. As long as the free movement of people is

maintained we could find a way to maintain the prosperity of the

region, but Gibraltar is all in favour of the UK remaining in the

European Union? All in favour? I represent 68% of the people

according to the last poll. We all have a vote, and we will be able to.

We have the royal assent for Gibraltar union. Could Gibraltar

find a way to stay in the EU if the rest of the UK decided to leave?

That would be difficult but Gibraltar could try to maintain some

of the bits of the European Union rules that the UK might not like, so

there could be a hybrid type of I hesitate to save membership but a

hybrid type of status within the single market, but those are issues

we should not countenance now. We should continue our efforts been

nudging the UK towards a positive vote in the referendum. It doesn't

sound like you have been preparing for the possibility of a Brexit.

Because understanding parts of the economy that might need to be

repositioned is not something you can do at this stage. Hardly a

surprise really, listening to Fabian in terms of how he says people would

vote in Gibraltar on the EU referendum. No, and in the end this

is all about self-determination. If you believe in self-determination

and you will not question the status of Gibraltar, but there is a patchy

reputation. Are you worried the Labour Party's position on Gibraltar

might change in the near future? The position on Gibraltar is very clear,

it was actually the Labour Party who said they wouldn't just not

negotiate the future of Gibraltar without the consensus of the people

of Gibraltar, they wouldn't even enter into negotiations. Tony Blair

did take action in 2007... After we gave him a bloody nose, nothing has

happened since then. They have talked about the Falkland Islands in

a way that I don't think is appropriate, but I'm meeting the

shadow Minister for Europe tomorrow and I'm sure... Who is that this

week? To discuss this or you want reassurance? To reassure us the

Labour Party status is as has been, and I'm confident that is the case.

Thank you. In the last few minutes,

David Cameron has been talking about the draft deal on EU reform

he's agreed with the president of the European Council,

Donald Tusk. Ted Cruz came out on top

of the Republican presidential hopeful pack last night in Iowa,

pushing favourite Donald Trump In the first primary of this year's

presidential election, the Democratic contest

also produced surprises, as frontrunner Hillary Clinton beat

Vermont senator Bernie Sanders Here's what the candidates

had to say last night. Tonight is a victory

for the grassroots. "Do not go to Iowa, you could never

finish even in the top ten." And I said, but I have friends

in Iowa, I know a lot of people in Iowa, I think they will really

like me, let's give it a shot. I'm just honoured,

I'm really honoured. Tonight, here in Iowa,

the people of this great state sends After seven years of Barack Obama,

we are not waiting any longer And that is why what Iowa

has begun tonight is As I stand here tonight,

breathing a great sigh of relief, And we've been joined

by Kate Andrews And Robert Carolina,

from Democrats Abroad. An exciting night? Very exciting

night. Donald Trump, who has been spoken about as the front runner,

had a terrible night. Not only did Ted Cruz take the victory but

Senator Rubio was one percentage point away from beating him. Did you

expect Ted Cruz to pick Donald Trump? Personally yesterday I

thought Ted Cruz was just going to take it but I was deeply worried. I

was a little bit panicked and I thought Donald Trump could take this

because the nation is known for choosing a very socially

Conservative candidate, someone a bit more radical, which is precisely

what they have done, but Ted Cruz as an alternative candidate. Is Donald

Trump's lost a sign that media attention doesn't necessarily

translate into success? It is hard to say whether the media is

responsible or not for who won last night but... You disagree? Donald

Trump has opened up a third lane of politics, he has split out from the

establishment crowd and the social Conservative crowd and opened up

this third branch of people who are literally afraid for their lives

because they are worried about their jobs and securing their future. From

where I sit, I'm looking at three candidates, none of whom won this

particular caucus. In terms of delegates they have picked up from

the Republican convention, it is eight, seven, and seven as they

leave Iowa. Is that different from the Democrat result? Yes, in a

number of ways. In terms of Secretary Clinton and Bernie

Sanders, statistically this is as close to tie as you can possibly

get, and they come out pretty evenly. With the Democrat delegate

selection process, we never operate a winner takes all system in the

various caucuses and primaries. The Republicans often do, not in Iowa

but in other states. The Republicans will arrive in Cleveland and still

don't know who their candidate is. This is extremely worrying for

Hillary Clinton, isn't it? She has lost pretty much all the games you

have built up. Over in the Democratic party, we are proud of

both of our candidates who remain in the primary process. That is very

fair view! Both of them are in very strong positions, no matter which

emerges as the front runner. I am going to be more generous to Hillary

Clinton, I thought she did very well last night. 43% of the Iowans

self-identity a socialist, but she last night. 43% of the Iowans

narrowly held her ground. It is last night. 43% of the Iowans

it means for the next election. last night. 43% of the Iowans

is it about a country of 300 million people and the best you can

is it about a country of 300 million with the three Republicans we have

got the and two Democrats we have I really follow American presidential

politics, really follow American presidential

group of candidate in the last 30 or 40 years. I'm shocked you say that.

group of candidate in the last 30 or The Republicans have put up such a

wide variety of candidates. Too wide, one might argue. Perhaps, but

Senator Marco Rubio has almost the same back story as President Barack

Obama. He hasn't been doing very well until now, that's the point.

Ted Cruz has been the only one chasing Donald Trump and he is

similar. In 2008 the person who chasing Donald Trump and he is

ended up becoming the nominee didn't win Iowa. It develops over time. It

was the most difficult for the Democrats to beat? Out of these

three, none of them I think. I would be happy to take on any of them in

three, none of them I think. I would general election because none of

them have particularly positive vision for America. I suppose you

would take that. Would Marco Rubio not be the most tricky for Hillary

Clinton for example? He is her worst nightmare. Hillary Clinton is

looking at an FBI investigation. We are getting closer every day now,

and you don't think any Republicans can take her on? Have a very capable

former Secretary of State and Senator, a very competent and

capable senator from the state of Vermont, someone who has brought the

word socialism into the mainstream of American politics for the first

time in 100 years. We have two candidates representing key values

about the need to support people who are struggling, who are hungry and

sick and need health care. We have two candidates on target to win.

Hillary Clinton is a candidate who failed in 2008, eight years on and

she is still considered by many to be a failure. On the other side,

Ronald Reagan must be turning in his grave at the thought of one of these

minuscule figures succeeding him. One of them will have to at one

stage. What is it about Bernie Sanders that has propelled him to

the forefront of the race on the Democrat side? Both candidates have

survived to this point because they share a similar vision for America,

which has to do with this need to believe... I don't think she

believes it. The believe there is a proper role for government in

helping the sick and the pork and that's why our party is holding its

primaries... Very briefly, New Hampshire primary, who wins? I think

Marco Rubio's momentum will go upwards. It is not for me to say.

There's just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz.

The question was, how did Lib Dem leader Tim Farron think

Was it a) As the man who saved the Liberal Democrats

b) The first Liberal Prime Minister in over a hundred years

I think he is underestimated, we will be hearing a lot more from him.

Thanks to Iain Dale and all my guests.

The One O'Clock News is starting over on BBC One now.

I'll be back at 11.30am tomorrow with Andrew for live coverage