08/03/2016 Daily Politics


08/03/2016

Jo is joined by Peter Kellner, Liz Kendall and Neil Hamilton to take a look at the latest political news from Westminster. Plus a discussion about International Women's Day.


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LineFromTo

Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.

:00:38.:00:44.

The EU and Turkey have agreed terms of a wide-ranging deal designed to

:00:45.:00:49.

stem the flow of migrants into Europe.

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The Turkish government has said it will take back all illegal migrants

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arriving on the Greek islands, as long as the EU accepts

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an equivalent number of Syrians from camps in Turkey.

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The EU Commission President, says it's real game-changer.

:01:00.:01:04.

Women who campaign to leave the European Union

:01:05.:01:06.

So says Employment Minister, Priti Patel, who wants out.

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She says she's fighting for her "democratic freedom".

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As MPs prepare to debate International Women's Day,

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we'll be asking should we be celebrating it at all.

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And, we'll be talking to the comeback kid,

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The former Conservative MP has topped the candidates list for local

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All that in the next hour and with us for the duration,

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President of the polling company, YouGov, Peter Kellner.

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Now let's talk first about the migrant crisis.

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The EU and Turkey say they have agreed the broad principles

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of a plan to ease the current crisis.

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But while yesterday's summit in Brussels was hailed

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as a "breakthrough" by European Council President Donald Tusk,

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The EU has been trying to strike a deal with Turkey whereby

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the country will prevent more people from the war-torn Middle East

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Turkey is already sheltering more than 2.7 million refugees,

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most of them from the civil war in neighbouring Syria.

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However, each day another 2,000 refugees - mostly from Syria,

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Iraq and Afghanistan - cross the Aegean sea into Europe.

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Under the plan agreed yesterday, all irregular migrants arriving

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in Greece from Turkey would be returned, at the EU's cost.

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For any Syrian returned, Turkey wants the EU to accept

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a recognised Syrian refugee from one of its camps.

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Migrants who are intercepted and who aren't from Syria won't be

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Turkey also wants its citizens to be granted visa-free travel in Europe

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sooner rather than later - by the summer of this year

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Turkey is also said to have requested another 3 billion euros

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of EU aid to cope with the refugee crisis,

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on top of the 3 billion euros already pledged.

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Finally, Turkey wants to advance its bid to become

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The plan is not yet binding, and there will likely be further

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discussions at another EU meeting next week.

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While the European Council President Donald Tusk

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was optimistic, some EU leaders have already voiced their opposition

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We can speak to our Europe correspondent in Brussels. Who is

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voicing their concerns about the steel? What we have heard today is

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particularly coming from the United Nations, and its refugee agency.

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There have been concerns raised about the legality of this plan.

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Already yesterday as the details of what the EU and Turkey were

:04:06.:04:08.

discussing were leaking out, there were voices starting to be raised

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about this idea of taking all the arrivals in Greece and returning

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them immediately back to Turkey, and then having this one for one plan,

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where 41 refugee returned to Turkey, one refugee would be taken from a

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camp in Turkey and shifted to the EU and have their asylum claims

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processed and accepted and taken to the EU. Now, the problem with this,

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the UN is saying, is a legal one. Under international law, mass

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returns of groups of people from one country are not allowed. Refugees

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under international human rights conventions, to which the EU and

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European countries are parties, or are signatories and follow, states

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that individuals who arrive somewhere seeking international

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protection can only be returned if their claim will be heard when they

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return to that third country. If it is clear that they will still have a

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hearing. Last night the EU leaders were talking about those being

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returned going to the back of the queue. It sounds complicated and

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begs the question that before the ink dries on this deal that has been

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described as a breakthrough by Donald Tusk, is it actually going to

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work in practice? There are two big questions. The first one, prior to

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that, is probably slightly premature to call this a deal actually. We

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should probably say that this is a proposal on the table, an idea. The

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EU countries were not able to agree yesterday said the first big

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challenge is, will they all signed up to this? We know countries like

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Hungary don't want to accept people, refugees shifted directly from

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Turkey into the EU. They have threatened to veto that part of it.

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Potentially they can put up roadblocks, and so can other

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countries, to the idea of granting Turkey major concessions in terms of

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free travel to the EU. If it goes through, would it work? We are

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already hearing refugees saying they would not be put off because they

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are so keen to reach Europe, and their situation they are leaving

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behind in Syria is so bad. Thank you.

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I'm joined now by the foreign affairs analyst Tim Marshall,

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and the Conservative MP Heidi Allen, who visited the island of Lesbos -

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on the frontline of the migrant crisis -

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Is this really a breakthrough deal? Not yet. Mr Tusk was full of

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hyperbole yesterday. He said that the days of irregular travel to

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Europe are over. Quite a statement to make. They are not. There will be

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another 2500 people coming today anyway. The practicalities of the

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deal, theoretically it looks good, 141 is a great idea. But the

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practicalities of sorting out who is Syrian and who isn't, which country

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they come out of and which country they go to, and the biggest thing,

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Libya has not been mentioned and that is getting worse. What happens

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if you go across to Italy? Because the agreement is going from Greece

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back to Turkey. But the biggest problem is the one for one. I was

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asked to be on this programme last week and I said Angela Merkel had

:07:44.:07:48.

nothing but Plan A. And this is just Plan A with finesse. Plan is that

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each European country will take a proportion of these refugees. Well,

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they won't, so who is going to take them? That quota system has a ready

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been rejected by leaders like David Cameron. Do you think that is what

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is necessary to make anything work in terms of solving this crisis?

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There has to be an element of that. I agree that it sounds great in

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principle but it is getting people to sign up and agree. I think to be

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fair to European leaders, so far I suspect they have been rabbit in the

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headlights, and this may focus their minds and at least are talking. But

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it will come to an end point where this is about numbers. You think in

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the" as will be necessary. We'll EU leaders -- will be EU leaders sign

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up to take a proportion? If they cannot come to a sensible decision

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between themselves it may well come to that. These are free travel for

:08:46.:08:50.

75 million Turks, is that Aaron acceptable price to pay for their

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cooperation? I am not an expert on Turkey, I don't know. Do we need to

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do a deal and find things that work for each party. It sounds like this

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quid pro quo is necessary in desperate times but it is quite a

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big price to pay. Turkey, rightly or wrongly, has extracted quite a big

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price. They are in the driving seat, and they have doubled the amount of

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money they have asked for. If the deal goes through, there are a bunch

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of problems we can come up with. Some of which we have a ready said,

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but here are another two. For visa-free travel for all 75 million

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Turks starting in June, Cyprus, an EU member, has to agree. The price

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for Cyprus agreeing that Turks can travel in the EU free are, you

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recognise the Greek Cypriot government in Cyprus. That's

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probably not going to happen. So that's one reason the deal may not

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happen. The other thing I would say, at the moment, and this is looking

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at it very unpleasantly, you are making huge profits out of these

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jackets that don't work at the moment. People are dying, you don't

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care, you are making money. There is a huge market and they simply don't

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work. Dive out of that, no pun intended, and get into paperwork.

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Because the paperwork, if you've got 75 million Turks, every single one

:10:23.:10:29.

of these refugees will try to get Turkish papers, and some will get

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forged papers and they will keep coming. The unintended consequences

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do seem to be never-ending. I'd like to hear about your experiences in

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Lesbos talking about these life jackets, what did you see? Foolishly

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there was me when I saw branded with Yamaha or something on the back, I

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thought at least that was a proper one. But they print them with known

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brands. They are knock-offs. These are what are being handed out? Not

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handed, people pay for these. They simply do not work. What else did

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you see in Lesbos? To some extent something has to be done because the

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front line is struggling, to put it mildly. Absolutely, that is what I

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saw. Greece was desperately under resourced, left on its own. The

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Greek restaurant is where backing up vans with food, not the humanitarian

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agencies. If this focuses minds and gets European leaders round the

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table, it has to be a good start. What do you think about the EU opt

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out of resettlement of asylum seekers already in Europe? Do you

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think that is justifiable and sustainable? Probably from a legal

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point of view and from our desire about how our role in Europe is

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going forward, yes. At morally, I would question that. Have you made

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that clear to the government? Yes, I said I think it is a fluid

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situation, the volumes of people coming are just incredible, and our

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decision number is has to be fluid as well. In terms of public

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sentiment, has it changed, has it gone from sympathy because of that

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very emotive picture, perhaps before a lot of people had sympathy for

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migrants coming from Syria, has that changed? There has been some change.

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Basically British people do not want the problem in any way to come to

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Britain. Of course the practical point is not what our polls show day

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in, day out, but the impact on the referendum debate. And I think the

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problem that David Cameron faces as Prime Minister is that if he did not

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have the referendum hanging over him he'd probably feel he had some

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flexibility about what to do. The problem is, if he does something

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which is represented, fairly or unfairly, as being soft on Europe,

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soft on immigration, that will play into the European referendum

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campaign. The referendum campaign closes his options in a bit in terms

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of domestic politics. Looking at it from a geopolitical point of view,

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looking at Turkey if there is visa-free travel and further

:13:19.:13:20.

discussions about potential membership down the line, Turkey of

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course it's in a strategic position. On its right hand side is Syria. It

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is sort of the border through. How could that changed the whole terms

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of trade of this debate if those things come into play? They have the

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whip hand, Turkey is the dominant partner in this discussion which is

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why the EU is bending over backwards to give it what it once so far. But

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that's Donald Tusk and Angela Merkel bending over backwards. You get down

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to the 28 leaders of countries, I'm not sure they are going to bend over

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backwards. So you don't think this deal will hold? We have already

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named many problems with it holding. Your correspondence pointed out the

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legal problems, as brought up by UNHCR and others. Turkey is doing an

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amazing job of taking care of people, albeit under difficult

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conditions. They've already spent 10 billion of their own money, they are

:14:17.:14:19.

about to get four and a half billion out of the EU. I'm just not sure

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that the deal will go through next week. If it does go through next

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week, will it stick? Two final things to say, it is coming too

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close for Angela Merkel's regional elections on Sunday. And secondly,

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not the EU accession but the visa talks for the Turks, they are

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demanding that they talk in June, not October. And in June the Brits

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have the referendum. And all this plays into the referendum. Thank you

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both very much. On According to pollsters like Peter

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here, Jeremy Corbyn is the first new Leader of the Opposition

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to score negative approval ratings. So the question for today is,

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which of these future prime ministers scored the highest net

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approval ratings when At the end of the show,

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Peter Kellner will give us Now, it may have escaped

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your notice but today is International Women's Day

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and to mark it, female campaigners from both sides of the EU debate

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are setting out their stall. Some people have criticised

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the campaign so far Thank you very much,

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it's great to be here in Slough, And if they come through

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the tunnel, we haven't It is actually an internecine war

:15:52.:15:57.

in the Tory party that is now being played out across

:15:58.:16:03.

a whole continent. The debate has been so much

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about Conservatives But ultimately it's not about me,

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it's not about you, any individual, it's

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about this country. The alternative is a big leap

:16:13.:16:17.

in the dark with all the risks There's no animosity, we're working

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together, we are one family. I don't think I'll say

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anything, after that! Alan Johnson lost for words for

:16:25.:16:35.

once! And with me now, the Conservative MP

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Anne-Marie Trevelyan from Women for Britain and Labour MP

:16:39.:16:40.

Liz Kendall, who's a member of The six cabinet attending ministers

:16:41.:16:48.

who are with you on the Brexit side, two of them are women, so how has

:16:49.:16:53.

this been a male dominated campaign? We've had voices slowly coming into

:16:54.:16:57.

the debate. A lot of them are men because there are more men still in

:16:58.:17:00.

the House of Commons than there are women. Those of us who have got

:17:01.:17:05.

strong views, like myself, put themselves forward into the debate

:17:06.:17:10.

very early on. Does it feel as if women haven't had enough to say in

:17:11.:17:15.

politics about this campaign? I'm very proud that we've got brilliant

:17:16.:17:19.

women like Angela eagle and others making a strong case for Labour but

:17:20.:17:24.

I think the campaign has been to bloke -ish. When you look at that

:17:25.:17:29.

film, all of the leading politicians were men. This is a problem because

:17:30.:17:34.

women are more likely to be undecided about how to vote in the

:17:35.:17:37.

euro referendum and they're unsure whether they are going to vote at

:17:38.:17:40.

all so it's really important that their views are heard. I would say

:17:41.:17:47.

that if you look at the business world, so very male dominated, and

:17:48.:17:50.

the economic case is very important and we need to get more within

:17:51.:17:54.

voices. So it is symptomatic of a wider problem? Well, it's a societal

:17:55.:18:00.

problem that there are still too few women in top leadership positions,

:18:01.:18:03.

whether that's in politics, business or the law. That's why it's so

:18:04.:18:07.

important that an international Women's Day we make the case about

:18:08.:18:11.

why Britain is better for women, what their kids get out of it and

:18:12.:18:15.

why it's a positive message for the future. Priti Patel said today that

:18:16.:18:19.

women in Britain are fighting for the same cause of the suffragettes.

:18:20.:18:25.

She made a comparison between the Democratic reason she's fighting for

:18:26.:18:27.

and what Emmeline Pankhurst was fighting for. Really? I think her

:18:28.:18:31.

point fighting for. Really? I think her

:18:32.:18:31.

where there has been a democratic fighting for. Really? I think her

:18:32.:18:37.

deficit it has often been women who have

:18:38.:18:52.

deficit it has often been women who this referendum. You're shaking your

:18:53.:18:58.

farcical comment to make. The suffragettes fought for equality

:18:59.:19:07.

farcical comment to make. The statutory holidays

:19:08.:20:09.

like Toyota and Rolls-Royce saying, look,

:20:10.:20:10.

like Toyota and Rolls-Royce saying, I've had... This is one

:20:11.:21:05.

like Toyota and Rolls-Royce saying, like? Yes, out is very clear. On the

:21:06.:22:33.

like Toyota and Rolls-Royce saying, resigned. I really

:22:34.:25:39.

person. Did he stepped over the line when he

:25:40.:26:01.

person. Did he stepped over the line understand he said he didn't

:26:02.:26:55.

the menfolk talking about politics. Today there

:26:56.:30:48.

the menfolk talking about politics. Day. Many men have pioneered to help

:30:49.:30:52.

women who are survivors of domestic violence and so on. I think it is

:30:53.:30:55.

just an opportunity to remember our key goals. But how is this they

:30:56.:31:00.

going to really help you achieve goals of equality or defeating

:31:01.:31:05.

domestic violence or equalising the pay gap if it still exists? I think

:31:06.:31:10.

it allows us to focus our work on it. You have the celebration, but

:31:11.:31:16.

also for example I went into a girls school this morning and we had a

:31:17.:31:21.

conversation such as the one you had with the two politicians in here,

:31:22.:31:27.

and they are all firmly in the in can. They seemed to be worried about

:31:28.:31:32.

travelling. They were trained to encapsulate the mood or a feeling

:31:33.:31:36.

about something to do with the out campaign, something negative and

:31:37.:31:40.

match. Let's stay off the EU referendum for a few moments. The

:31:41.:31:44.

pay gap. Are you saying there are no issues left that women to campaign

:31:45.:31:50.

on because life is equal in every way? There is certainly no pay

:31:51.:31:54.

discrimination. There are single cases, of course, but no evidence

:31:55.:31:56.

that women are being discriminated against doing huge extent. In fact

:31:57.:32:02.

women out there and then under the age of about 35. Before they have

:32:03.:32:07.

kids, basically. Then women decide to have children and also to care

:32:08.:32:15.

for them. We are led to believe this is a terrible thing, women taking

:32:16.:32:18.

time out of their careers to raise their children, care for them and if

:32:19.:32:22.

then the care they need. Well, do you think that is terrible? Over a

:32:23.:32:30.

52 year lifetime of working women are ?300,000 worse off, that is the

:32:31.:32:34.

evidence by a well respected consultancy. I think what matters, a

:32:35.:32:42.

lot of women don't have a choice, maybe they are a single-parent

:32:43.:32:45.

household, they have to pay their rent, pay their bills, and they have

:32:46.:32:50.

to work. So this idea that there is choice, certainly in an expensive

:32:51.:32:53.

city with housing at the cost it is in London, many women don't have

:32:54.:32:57.

that choice, they go out and find what they can. Pants over a life

:32:58.:33:05.

span. I use saying women choose to invest -- that is over a life span,

:33:06.:33:08.

I use saying women choose to earn less? A recent report said that

:33:09.:33:15.

middle-class women would work less than they currently do and look

:33:16.:33:19.

after their children if they were able to. What about women who do not

:33:20.:33:23.

have the choice, those who need to go out to work? They are supported,

:33:24.:33:28.

there is a very big welfare state and most childcare is covered in the

:33:29.:33:33.

tax credit system. But just in terms of when men get older and do earn

:33:34.:33:38.

more money, that money is being spent on women. The money that men

:33:39.:33:42.

are earning is being spent on their families. Only in the West would

:33:43.:33:47.

that be seen as a bad thing. We should celebrate the fact men are

:33:48.:33:52.

providing for their families. As the token men in this discussion. Not

:33:53.:33:56.

token, but DS. Let me make two points. The first is

:33:57.:34:04.

token, but DS. Let me make two children, they still do not do as

:34:05.:34:09.

well, not as many get to the top in different areas, profession,

:34:10.:34:11.

business or whatever. That's not the evidence I've read. Let Peter

:34:12.:34:19.

finish. And my second point is, I think we need to make a cultural

:34:20.:34:24.

shift that as women become mothers, come back to paid work a few years

:34:25.:34:28.

later, why don't we, instead of saying it is a career break, why

:34:29.:34:33.

don't we say these are people who become immensely skilled at

:34:34.:34:35.

multitasking, time management, conflict resolution, being able to

:34:36.:34:41.

work flat out when dog tired, and I think we should be making those

:34:42.:34:47.

four, five, six years part of a positive aspect of your CV. And

:34:48.:34:52.

women coming back into the workforce, especially when they want

:34:53.:34:55.

to go far in their careers, are given more opportunity to do so

:34:56.:34:58.

because of their writs periods of mother had. On that note we have to

:34:59.:35:02.

end it. Now, one of the defining moments

:35:03.:35:04.

of the 1997 general election was the sight of Neil Hamilton

:35:05.:35:06.

losing his parliamentary seat. Since then the former Conservative

:35:07.:35:10.

MP has kept himself busy appearing on chat shows and in pantomimes,

:35:11.:35:12.

but in May he will stand for a seat So is the start of Neil Hamilton's

:35:13.:35:16.

political comeback? So, congratulations in topping the

:35:17.:35:38.

Ukip Welsh candidate list. Have you received congratulations from Nigel

:35:39.:35:41.

Farage? He is in Strasbourg at the moment, he has been out of contact.

:35:42.:35:45.

He is said to be furious. You would have to do ask him. The newspaper

:35:46.:35:51.

reports were that he was incandescent with rage. You read it

:35:52.:35:56.

in the tabloids so it must be true. I'm not sure it was a tabloid

:35:57.:36:03.

actually. The Times is a tabloid now. Are you really saying he will

:36:04.:36:07.

be pleased? I don't think this is a vitally important question in the

:36:08.:36:10.

grand scheme of things and I will not get involved in Tinseltown.

:36:11.:36:15.

Quite you must be disappointed if that is the case? I am delighted I

:36:16.:36:20.

am the choice of the Ukip members in Wales. Whatever the views of Nigel

:36:21.:36:24.

Farage, you did not have a vote in this election process but the

:36:25.:36:28.

ordinary Ukip members did. I am delighted to say they have chosen me

:36:29.:36:31.

to be the top candidate in my region of mid and West Wales. Are you going

:36:32.:36:36.

to meet up with him soon? I meet with him regularly and I don't know

:36:37.:36:42.

when our next meeting will be. We have a meeting at least once a month

:36:43.:36:45.

through our national executive and I'm looking forward to meeting him

:36:46.:36:49.

again. It has also been reported, prominent party members in Wales

:36:50.:36:53.

have complained that you were foisted on them, is there any truth

:36:54.:36:58.

in that? I have been foisted upon them by themselves, then. Because I

:36:59.:37:02.

am the top candidate in my region as the result of a ballot of all

:37:03.:37:07.

members in Wales. So there is no question of being foisted,

:37:08.:37:10.

parachuted or any other pejorative words which some people have applied

:37:11.:37:15.

to me and other candidates. These complaints normally come from people

:37:16.:37:19.

who are disappointed themselves. Do you think it is wise to come back

:37:20.:37:24.

into politics? Why would you want to do it? I'm not doing it for myself,

:37:25.:37:28.

I'm doing it for my country, that's why I went into politics in the

:37:29.:37:33.

first place. I have strong beliefs. One thing which has been a thread

:37:34.:37:37.

through my life since 1967 when I joined the anti-Common market league

:37:38.:37:41.

is opposition to what we now know as the EU. What I want to do more than

:37:42.:37:45.

anything else in the world is to free our country from the tentacles

:37:46.:37:51.

of Russell 's and restore responsible democratic government in

:37:52.:37:57.

Britain -- tentacles of Brussels. Will you be working in Wales? I will

:37:58.:38:01.

be working in Cardiff at least three days a week through the assembly

:38:02.:38:05.

meeting, and having a constituency which covers 80% of the landmass of

:38:06.:38:09.

Wales I will have to make some tough decisions about to base myself. In

:38:10.:38:14.

the first instance I will be looking for somewhere in Cardiff where I can

:38:15.:38:18.

base myself during the working week. And then my constituency will go

:38:19.:38:21.

from the Menai Straits in the north to Saint Davids head in the south,

:38:22.:38:26.

so I am probably better off getting a mobile home in that case. Thank

:38:27.:38:27.

you. Now our guest of the day,

:38:28.:38:31.

Peter Kellner has made the odd buck or two from finding out,

:38:32.:38:34.

or at least attempting to, He's not always right of course,

:38:35.:38:37.

and pollsters in general have come So do you know an online poll

:38:38.:38:41.

from a phone poll? What's the point of them,

:38:42.:38:45.

and why are there so many These pollsters are talking

:38:46.:38:48.

to people like you. Do you intend to vote

:38:49.:38:52.

Labour, Liberal Democrat, Conservative or for

:38:53.:38:54.

another candidate? Politicians and journalists

:38:55.:38:57.

are often obsessed with political They shouldn't be, and the public

:38:58.:38:59.

aren't, but they remain part of the fabric of politics,

:39:00.:39:05.

despite being a fraction The general philosophy

:39:06.:39:08.

of polling is a Thoroughly mixed, it shouldn't be

:39:09.:39:12.

necessary to sample the whole bowl to know exactly what it's

:39:13.:39:21.

like or made of, but you've got to take a decent spoonful

:39:22.:39:25.

and the ballpark figure for most pollsters is between

:39:26.:39:27.

1000 and 2000 people. For many years, polling

:39:28.:39:31.

involved doing this - door-to-door, face-to-face

:39:32.:39:38.

conversations. People randomly sourced, visited and

:39:39.:39:40.

followed up. Now, one reason why people don't use

:39:41.:39:41.

face-to-face any more is because it's incredibly

:39:42.:39:51.

time-consuming and the fact is that people's opinions

:39:52.:39:55.

can change whilst it takes time These days things are much more

:39:56.:39:58.

rapid and, of course, they are using technology,

:39:59.:40:01.

albeit some of it not that modern. Yes, can I ask you a few questions

:40:02.:40:04.

about telephone polling? We at ComRes use it

:40:05.:40:19.

for all our election work, which is quota sampling,

:40:20.:40:32.

so we know we need the right amount of men, women, different age groups,

:40:33.:40:36.

regions of the country, and we randomly dial numbers

:40:37.:40:40.

until we get those exact numbers, to reflect

:40:41.:40:42.

the population as a whole. There is a new way of doing

:40:43.:40:44.

things - online polling. Now, this is a page

:40:45.:40:51.

from the website of Here is a poll I can

:40:52.:40:53.

take part in right now But that's not quite what we mean

:40:54.:40:57.

because this is self-selecting. I'm not necessarily

:40:58.:41:03.

representative of After all, I'm a guy

:41:04.:41:04.

who's got a rubber duck No, this is what you

:41:05.:41:08.

want to look at, the panels, because they have panels

:41:09.:41:16.

of people that they go to repetitively to find

:41:17.:41:18.

out what they think - between the random selection

:41:19.:41:21.

of using the phone. The biggest obvious

:41:22.:41:24.

issue at the moment is the EU referendum,

:41:25.:41:27.

where telephone polls are showing a large lead for "remain",

:41:28.:41:30.

whereas online polls are showing

:41:31.:41:31.

the race neck and neck. We've conducted an experiment

:41:32.:41:34.

conducting the same question, exactly the same, both online

:41:35.:41:37.

and telephone and have found that same difference,

:41:38.:41:40.

that the telephone poll So we've tried to understand

:41:41.:41:42.

that difference, whether it's about the type

:41:43.:41:45.

of people that we're interviewing, who they are, why they might be

:41:46.:41:48.

answering differently. Therein lies the quirks

:41:49.:41:51.

of polling and pollsters now are not the only

:41:52.:41:53.

kid on the block. If you want to know

:41:54.:41:56.

what's going to happen in an election some weeks,

:41:57.:42:03.

some months, maybe even some years away, I think your best bet

:42:04.:42:06.

is to look at a specific prediction market - and a prediction

:42:07.:42:09.

market where money is involved, that really

:42:10.:42:11.

keeps people honest, so we're talking about

:42:12.:42:13.

betting markets here. They, I still think,

:42:14.:42:14.

are a very, very good guide to what's going

:42:15.:42:17.

to happen in the future. And it's a safe bet us politicos

:42:18.:42:19.

will still be looking at both. And with us from Southampton,

:42:20.:42:23.

Professor Patricik Sturgis, We will be with you in just a

:42:24.:42:35.

moment. Peter, the final YouGov poll had Labour and the Tories pegging

:42:36.:42:39.

before the last election, what was your reaction when you saw the

:42:40.:42:45.

result? Probably not a word I would use on daytime television. All the

:42:46.:42:50.

polls, telephone or online, we all made the same mistake. In that case

:42:51.:42:55.

there was not a methodological difference. As Tom says on the EU at

:42:56.:43:01.

the moment there is. I was not a happy bunny at 10pm election night.

:43:02.:43:09.

The MP for Pudsey who said he would have lost his seat if the

:43:10.:43:13.

predictions have been right, he said if anybody else failed so miserably,

:43:14.:43:17.

they would be sacked or be considering their position. Did you

:43:18.:43:22.

think about it? Knows. Would you have -- should you have done? That

:43:23.:43:30.

is not for us to say. Pollsters got something is wrong in the election.

:43:31.:43:34.

I'm not sure every politician or journalist was perfect with the

:43:35.:43:37.

truth. And since the election people across the polling community have

:43:38.:43:43.

undertaken the very serious business of finding out what went wrong. We

:43:44.:43:47.

have looked into our failings far more than the journalist or

:43:48.:43:53.

political communities have. Patrick, do you think they have listened, has

:43:54.:43:58.

there been this soul-searching Peter is talking about? I think there has.

:43:59.:44:02.

They have already been looking at some new procedures and so on.

:44:03.:44:08.

That's undoubtedly going to go on and I would be expecting them to be

:44:09.:44:11.

looking at the recommendations we make in our report that will be

:44:12.:44:15.

published in about a week. I think it is also worth bearing in mind,

:44:16.:44:18.

we've been focusing on where the polls went wrong, but the polls were

:44:19.:44:25.

also right in a number of respects. They were almost exactly correct in

:44:26.:44:30.

terms of the shares of the smaller parties. And if you go back from not

:44:31.:44:37.

just the days and weeks before the election, over the entire

:44:38.:44:42.

parliament, they told the story of the electoral dynamic, the decline

:44:43.:44:46.

in support for the Lib Dems, the increase for Ukip and so on. These

:44:47.:44:50.

are all things we would not have known without the polls. So I think

:44:51.:44:54.

it is important to keep things in perspective when we are assessing

:44:55.:44:57.

how accurate they were. Of course they did get the key thing wrong

:44:58.:45:00.

which was the difference between Labour and Conservatives and that

:45:01.:45:05.

was where the attention was rightly focused. What about the methodology,

:45:06.:45:10.

though? There are different techniques as demonstrated in the

:45:11.:45:13.

film by Giles. Are some more reliable than others?

:45:14.:45:19.

If you are just talking about the difference between online and phone,

:45:20.:45:23.

it is quite difficult to come to a proper judgment about that. The

:45:24.:45:28.

polls right before the 2015 election, there was no difference in

:45:29.:45:33.

the final polls between phone and online. If you go back a bit further

:45:34.:45:37.

in the campaign and in the parliament, you do see that the

:45:38.:45:41.

phone polls were giving a point or two higher in Conservative support.

:45:42.:45:46.

Now, we don't know if that was accurate or not because we don't

:45:47.:45:49.

have the barometer of the election results. I think it's not

:45:50.:45:57.

unreasonable to assume that given that the polls have historically

:45:58.:46:01.

underestimated the Conservative share that the phone polls were

:46:02.:46:05.

doing perhaps slightly better. But the problem is, we genuinely don't

:46:06.:46:09.

know what the true picture is until we have an election. We haven't got

:46:10.:46:15.

the EU referendum result. We'll come to the EU referendum in a minute. To

:46:16.:46:19.

go back to 2015, was there such a thing as shy Tories or was that just

:46:20.:46:23.

a convenient cover for polling errors? I'm going to ask me to this

:46:24.:46:32.

question. I'm accepting it but I'm putting a slightly different gloss

:46:33.:46:35.

on it. I think there were some people last year, as in 1992, when

:46:36.:46:40.

the polls got it wrong, when John Major remained Prime Minister and

:46:41.:46:42.

the polls said Neil can it would become Prime Minister, I think then,

:46:43.:46:47.

as last year, some people really didn't want the Conservatives to

:46:48.:46:52.

remain in office and when asked by a pollster they'd say, "I don't know

:46:53.:46:57.

the Tories, I'll vote Labour". That was their initial or expressive

:46:58.:47:00.

view. When they came to cast their votes in the ballots, at the polling

:47:01.:47:06.

station, they said, "I'm not sure I want to make that particular the

:47:07.:47:10.

Bovo the edge," because although they did neither Conservatives they

:47:11.:47:12.

didn't trust Labour on Labour's leader. I'm not saying that was the

:47:13.:47:17.

whole explanation. I think it was perhaps a quarter or a third of it

:47:18.:47:21.

but that factor was there. How confident are you about polling

:47:22.:47:25.

leading up to the EU referendum? Ask me on June the 24th. Let me give you

:47:26.:47:31.

a serious answer. There is cleared of his between telephone and online

:47:32.:47:35.

polls. Historically I can of two contests weather has a diverging. In

:47:36.:47:42.

2008 in London, we at YouGov online said Boris Johnson was going to beat

:47:43.:47:47.

Ken Livingstone. All the telephone poles said Ken Livingstone was going

:47:48.:47:52.

to win. Online was right on that occasion, telephone was wrong. In

:47:53.:47:55.

2011, the alternative vote referendum, we all said we were

:47:56.:48:01.

going to vote overwhelmingly to keep the present voting system but the

:48:02.:48:04.

telephone poles were a bit nearer than the online polls. So

:48:05.:48:12.

historically it was a 1-1 draw. Patrick Sturgess in Southampton,

:48:13.:48:13.

thank you very much. And now for something

:48:14.:48:16.

completely different. And now on the Daily Politics, it's

:48:17.:48:24.

Peter Kellner's greatest hits. At number five, speculation about the

:48:25.:48:28.

1987 election and a hung parliament. If there is a hung parliament, the

:48:29.:48:33.

first thing that will happen is that Mrs Thatcher would resign as the

:48:34.:48:37.

Conservative Party leader. In those circumstances, the Conservative

:48:38.:48:42.

Party would be in the position of a menorah TV Labour government. At

:48:43.:48:47.

number four, he predicted the results of the 1990 local elections.

:48:48.:48:51.

Unless the government gets a big swing back in the next four weeks,

:48:52.:48:54.

the Conservatives are going to wake up on the morning of May the 4th and

:48:55.:49:00.

say, crikey, what on earth as it is? I think the Conservatives, Mrs

:49:01.:49:04.

Thatcher in particular, will be needing some good news by July the

:49:05.:49:08.

latest. Six months later, Margaret Thatcher resigned as PM. At number

:49:09.:49:12.

three, on the money with the Scottish referendum... There has

:49:13.:49:16.

been a clear shift today, a small but clear shift, from yes to know

:49:17.:49:20.

and we also think that the no voters in the end were slightly more

:49:21.:49:23.

determined to turn out that the yes voters. At number two, how the polls

:49:24.:49:28.

can be widely wrong. The Conservative win in 1992. I'm not

:49:29.:49:34.

alone, thank goodness, in getting it wrong. The polls were all wrong. And

:49:35.:49:40.

number one, why you should all care about polls. Opinion polls provide

:49:41.:49:48.

the best, most objective source of information about an election

:49:49.:49:52.

campaign which is not controlled by the political parties. Peter was

:49:53.:50:00.

really enjoying that! Yes, our Peter here has been around

:50:01.:50:01.

the Westminster village for rather And at the end of this month

:50:02.:50:04.

he hangs up his YouGov hat. Lets focus on your career, looking

:50:05.:50:15.

back. We're not doing your obituary here! What to consider your greatest

:50:16.:50:21.

pulling Triumph? The biggest triumph, because we were running

:50:22.:50:24.

against other pollsters, was 2008 when we said we were polling and we

:50:25.:50:32.

always had Boris Johnson in the lead and the other polls always had

:50:33.:50:34.

Kennedy still in the lead. Ken Livingstone complained saying,

:50:35.:50:38.

YouGov brings falling into distribute. That campaign somehow

:50:39.:50:44.

went away. Are pollsters competitive? Yes but there is also a

:50:45.:50:49.

degree of camaraderie. When it goes wrong? Not only that. We have our

:50:50.:50:58.

own rules which we have set ourselves for transparency. In

:50:59.:51:03.

Britain more than any other country in the world, anybody can go onto

:51:04.:51:07.

the website of any pollster and get the full tables, the full

:51:08.:51:10.

methodological details, the full question wording is. We are as an

:51:11.:51:15.

industry, and we've come to this together, much more open than

:51:16.:51:18.

anywhere else in the world and I'm proud of that. Will you jealous of

:51:19.:51:22.

John Curtice when he was lauded for his stunningly answer it -- accurate

:51:23.:51:27.

exit poll? I've known John for many years and the exit poll was very

:51:28.:51:32.

good but as we saw there, we got the Scottish referendum right, we got

:51:33.:51:37.

the Labour leadership right and people thought we got out of our

:51:38.:51:42.

minds. At the previous general election, we had the Tory lead in

:51:43.:51:47.

2010 spot on, 2005 was very good 2001 was very good. The euro

:51:48.:51:52.

elections a couple of years ago, we were pretty well spot on. So yes,

:51:53.:51:56.

we've got something is wrong but we've got many more things right

:51:57.:52:03.

than wrong. Let's go back. In 1981 BST people do over 50 present. Did

:52:04.:52:07.

you think they were on the brink of power? I wasn't sure but I was then

:52:08.:52:12.

on the New Statesman and when I saw those poll figures, it was before I

:52:13.:52:19.

was a pollster and I started a thing in the New Statesman of covering all

:52:20.:52:22.

the local election results week after week and most weeks there were

:52:23.:52:27.

four, five, six local by-elections and we found in the summer of 1981

:52:28.:52:33.

that yes, indeed, where the STV were standing there were getting 40 or 50

:52:34.:52:42.

present. Our groovy SDP. It didn't last but the Conservatives were in

:52:43.:52:46.

trouble, the Connery was doing badly, Michael foot was leader of

:52:47.:52:50.

the Labour Party. -- the economy was doing badly. Are you going to be a

:52:51.:52:56.

commentator, speak freely, give us your personal opinions on politics?

:52:57.:53:00.

I'm available for the political equivalent of birth, marriage, bar

:53:01.:53:05.

mitzvahs. I'm hoping to come here quite a lot more. You will be

:53:06.:53:09.

speaking freely with your opinions? I'm available. Pollsters are like

:53:10.:53:15.

barristers, prostitutes and taxi drivers. We ply for hire. I will

:53:16.:53:19.

continue to apply for higher after I leave YouGov. Thank you for that

:53:20.:53:22.

interesting image at the end! Courtesy of our friends

:53:23.:53:24.

at the Mirror, we now know who the MPs are that use

:53:25.:53:27.

Twitter the most and least Out of the 650 MPs,

:53:28.:53:29.

the Labour MP for Ilford North, Wes Streeting,

:53:30.:53:34.

is the Commons' most prolific tweeter, having tweeted 68,800

:53:35.:53:36.

tweets and counting. Tim Farron, the leader

:53:37.:53:43.

of the Liberal Democrats, is the second most prolific tweeter

:53:44.:53:45.

in the House of Commons, with 67,600 posts since he joined

:53:46.:53:58.

the micro-blogging site. Stella Creasy is the Commons' third

:53:59.:54:00.

most prolific tweeter with that amounts to one post every 44

:54:01.:54:02.

minutes since she joined Jamie Reed comes in at fourth

:54:03.:54:06.

place with 57,600 tweets. Eight of the top ten most prolific

:54:07.:54:15.

tweeters are Labour MPs. The top-tweeting Tory,

:54:16.:54:19.

in tenth place, is Karl McCartney At the other end of the table,

:54:20.:54:22.

Paul Beresford - Tory MP for Mole Valley -

:54:23.:54:31.

has tweeted just once. as well as Demos's social media

:54:32.:54:37.

research director Carl Miller. Please don't ask B to repeat any of

:54:38.:54:52.

those numbers again! Jamie Reed, you have treated 57,600 post-I've

:54:53.:54:55.

distributed at - and counting. Are you addicted? Not at all. It is a

:54:56.:55:00.

really good way to get your message out to people and do what politician

:55:01.:55:03.

should be doing, which is holding a dialogue with as many people as

:55:04.:55:06.

possible. I sometimes wonder why people get so hung up on this phrase

:55:07.:55:10.

addiction. It takes ten seconds to send a tweet and that's it, it goes

:55:11.:55:14.

into the ether and you hear the sound of breaking glass and it is

:55:15.:55:17.

either gone down well or have gone down well. That's the addiction bit,

:55:18.:55:21.

the reaction. How many people have looked at it, retweeted it. I think

:55:22.:55:27.

that's the same with any political message you are trying to get over.

:55:28.:55:32.

When did we see a step change in the Twitter usage? I think it was Barack

:55:33.:55:36.

Obama's election victories in 2008 and 2012. I think politicians around

:55:37.:55:41.

the world knew that social media was the new battle ground and was going

:55:42.:55:45.

to be the new crucial way of fighting for power and was going to

:55:46.:55:48.

be a place they needed to be on and they needed a picture on there and

:55:49.:55:52.

they knew their parents would be there if they weren't. Was it really

:55:53.:55:55.

won by social media in 2015? I don't think so. I think future elections

:55:56.:56:00.

might be because I think parties will start to behave differently but

:56:01.:56:05.

so far, no, I don't think they have as much influence as some people

:56:06.:56:09.

say. We are seeing a vital shift. For young people, social media,

:56:10.:56:13.

according to polls, was the second most important thing they made their

:56:14.:56:17.

decision on who to vote for after the TV debate. As new generations

:56:18.:56:20.

come into the letter it, social media is going to become more

:56:21.:56:24.

important. Eight of the top ten are Labour MPs. Why do you think that

:56:25.:56:29.

is? If I'm being entirely honest, I think it's because Labour MPs are

:56:30.:56:33.

more plugged into modernity and the Conservative MPs are not and I think

:56:34.:56:36.

that's part of the cultural brands of both parties. I think you will

:56:37.:56:39.

find Labour MPs doing more on Twitter, Facebook and blogging and

:56:40.:56:43.

flogging and other initiatives which are coming forward. -- vlogging. In

:56:44.:56:55.

2008, it was not a Twitter election. Why did it work for Obama and not

:56:56.:56:58.

the Labour? I think they used Twitter as a key data gathering

:56:59.:57:04.

device. If you look at the last general election and how many Labour

:57:05.:57:08.

people had their hopes dashed, they believed what they were reading on

:57:09.:57:11.

Twitter. That's the point, it's an echo chamber. In that sense, maybe

:57:12.:57:17.

that was partly why Labour didn't win in the end. I think it's a

:57:18.:57:23.

factor. Do you think it's true that they are more modern, in terms of

:57:24.:57:27.

their usage, Labour MPs, of social media than the Tories? I certainly

:57:28.:57:31.

think there was a distinct difference between the strategy

:57:32.:57:35.

would win the Labour and the Tories. Party activists wanted to use

:57:36.:57:39.

platforms like Twitter to leveraged their numbers. We see targeted

:57:40.:57:45.

messaging to reach people. An important point about platforms like

:57:46.:57:50.

Twitter is you will never hear it would rob from the floating voter.

:57:51.:57:53.

You hear from the excited party faithful. Those are the people who

:57:54.:57:59.

are bothering enough to tweet in the first place. They follow MPs and

:58:00.:58:06.

reply. Do you treat? I'm told I got about 57 followers but I've ever

:58:07.:58:10.

said to tweet in my life. Have you got an account? Are you sure it is

:58:11.:58:16.

you they are following? No, I don't. Should you be for your new career?

:58:17.:58:23.

Possibly. I'll think about that. You can tweet about the programme as

:58:24.:58:26.

much as you like and how wonderful the presenters are! Thank you.

:58:27.:58:29.

There's just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz.

:58:30.:58:32.

The question was, which of these future prime ministers scored

:58:33.:58:35.

the highest net approval ratings when they were in opposition?

:58:36.:58:37.

So, Peter Kellner, what's the correct answer?

:58:38.:58:44.

I think it was Tony Blair, who was incredible popular before 1997. One

:58:45.:58:49.

of his staff are said to me, my job is to provide the water that only

:58:50.:58:53.

walks on. But you were wrong. Everyone will assume it was Tony

:58:54.:58:55.

Blair but it was Edward Heath. Something for you to ponder! You get

:58:56.:58:58.

it wrong again. Sorry about that.

:58:59.:59:02.

Jo Coburn is joined by polling expert Peter Kellner, Labour MP Liz Kendall and Ukip's Neil Hamilton to take a look at the latest political news from Westminster and the ongoing migrant crisis. Plus a discussion about International Women's Day.


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