16/06/2016 Daily Politics

Just one week to go until the EU referendum.

A group of senior Conservatives accuse the Bank of England

and the Treasury of "peddling phoney forecasts" to scare people

But Remain campaigners accuse Leave of "yet more fantasy economics".

Gordon Brown has delivered a passionate speech urging people

He said he was making the "positive progressive case" for staying in.

And does where you live in the UK affect how

We headed southwest, to see how people there

Cornwall has its own way of looking at the world,

and it's quite cussive and quite stroppy, and if you're going to

find that kind of British characteristic of not liking being

told what to do, you'll find it here.

All that in the next hour and with us for the duration Times

columnist and Conservative peer, Danny Finkelstein.

He's got a dream day lined up today, combining his two great passions -

What could be better than being with us on the Daily Politics,

and then the England versus Wales match afterwards?

Thank you. It's like a game of Association football. Yes.

So first today, let's talk about the four senior

Conservatives who have accused the Bank of England and the Treasury

of "peddling phoney forecasts", to scare people into voting to stay

Former chancellors Norman Lamont and Nigel Lawson and ex-Tory leaders

Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard poured scorn on warnings of economic

We had this forecast of ?3400 lost from every

That was not in any way a balanced approach to this subject.

And it would have been far better, I think, if these institutions,

which you've described, had tried to present a balanced

There are only three facts in this debate -

Number one, if we leave we won't have to pay billions

of pounds into the coffers of the EU.

Number two, we'll have control over our immigration again.

And number three, our Parliament will not be subordinate

Those are the only facts - everything else is guesswork,

and it's a great shame that this guesswork has been presented

as fact, when it's nothing of the kind.

Well, David Cameron responded with a tweet this morning.

We're joined now by the Conservative MP

and Leave campaigner, Andrea Leadsom, a former

And our guest of the day, Danny Finkelstein,

This Tory civil war is reaching quite dramatic heights. Is it worse

than you thought it would be? I think it is slightly, but if I

thought about it rationally, it is a very big issue, people feel very

strongly about and once in gauge in it, you have to try your best to win

the argument. It has a momentum of its own? Michael Howard clearly

sincerely believes it is guesswork to see the economy would be damaged.

I equally sincerely, whilst except it is speculative, that you have to

look at risk and you have to make a decent assessment of probability. I

think the consensus is against what Michael has to say. Andrea, your

side is pouring scorn on institutions like the Bank of

England, the Treasury, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, it's all a

little Donald Trump, isn't it? Not at all, I think what we are saying

is the forecasts that are being put out assume a modest trade deal with

the EU, no free trade with anyone else in the world for 15 years and

are productivity collapses. It is not surprising, if you put those

assumptions in, you get bad forecasts out. There is an important

point about the Bank of England here. They're remit is financial

stability and they have independent monetary policy setting but not in

any other area. The Bank of England setting out with an -- partial view

is dangerous. Do you think the governor has gone beyond his remit?

Yes, I think that is something the select committee might want to look

into when it is over. You believe it to be so? I think the Bank of

England act is very clear, the governor has independents in setting

monetary policy and in all other matters must be impartial. The Bank

of England in the past has talked about the risks of remaining and the

risks to public services under downward pressure on wages, the

risks from the Greek problem in the Eurozone yet none of that came out

this time. It was just what investors might do and what

households might do, not in his remit. Ukraine people are making

unrealistic assumptions on the other side of the argument. Though not all

the assumptions you listed are made by everybody. -- you said people are

making unrealistic assumptions. It is a fair assumption if we leave,

that whatever our relationship is with the EU, and of course we will

continue to have a trading relationship, I don't think anyone

could do neither, but it will not be as open and give us the same open,

untrammelled access we have now. That is a fair assumption, isn't it?

I don't agree. The fact is we are unique in the world, having an

economy that is totally aligned for the last 43 is, all of our roles,

the contents of the sausage is aligned to that of the EU. We

currently trade tariff free so be very easy and more in their interest

than owls to continue to trade tariff free. You are claiming we

could leave the EU, which would mean, because you've made a big song

and arms about it, ending free movement of peoples, but we would

still access the single market on the same basis as we do now? We

would continue to trade tariff free because it is more in their

interests than ours. Let me be clear, on the same basis as now, we

would trade on the same basis is your claim? It is absolutely in

their interests even more than ours. We have a big deficit with the

European Union. Let's be clear, the EU has some modest trade agreements

with the rest of the world, not as much as Switzerland, but it does

have some. And they do not have free movement of labour. So is to suggest

the only way to access the European market tariff free is with freedom

of movement is not true, Andrew. If Europe was to agree that there would

be no price of membership for being part of the single market, that

there is no free movement. We won't be part of the single market. You're

saying we would have the same access as if we were. No, the single market

has become a big issue. We do not want to be in the single market, we

want to trade tariff free. But in the terms of trade, the same access

as we do now? I believe so. If the European Union conceded that to us,

what would stop Sweden, Denmark, Poland, other countries on, we'll

have that as well, if the Brits get that? The European Union elite is

never going to agree to that, you know that. The point is it is not up

to the European elite. We hear so much about the European elite. It is

up to them. Businesses do business with businesses. We don't even have

a free-trade agreement with the United States. You don't need a

free-trade agreement to do business. They are telling us not to leave the

EU. No, Dyson, the bulk of SMEs are telling us to leave. The bulk, it is

the bulk, the bulk of big businesses are telling Britain to stay in the

European Union. Big businesses. That's what I said. We are all

proposing we should ignore that... What makes you think if your advice

is to ignore that it is not the advice of other European countries

question mark Jamie Diamond of JP Morgan says we should stay in EU. JP

Morgan have been fined $8 billion for their deliberate part in

creating the financial crisis that brought the world to its knees. Can

make speak for the poor people, the workers in this country? I have one

question. You've claimed, your colleagues, if we leave we can

design rules, talking about access rules, that sued the British

economy, not the requirements of Latvia or Spain. What Latvian

requirements have we had to meet? What I'm saying is that because we

have a big trade deficit with Europe, because they sell more to us

than we do to them. That's all I'm asking you. Your people are saying

we have to meet the requirements of Latvia or Spain. So let me widen it

to both, what requirements from Latvia or Spain have we been forced

to meet? The UK, 60% of all our rules and regulations come from the

European Union. There are all manner of regulations about things like the

live export of animals, VAT on fuel bills, with forced to obey those. So

you can't name any? They're named under 28 EU states by the European

Commission. We will leave it there. The polls are generally

uncertain on how the nation will vote on June 23rd,

but as we get closer to that date, Including some this morning and

another later on today. After the fiasco of last

year's general election, there's been a lot more attention

paid in this campaign Phone polls have most

frequently shown Remain with a lead, whereas online polls have tended

to show the two sides neck and neck. Let's plot a very small number

of the polls so far. In the middle of May an Ipsos

MORI phone poll gave Remain an 18-point lead -

by far the biggest in But signs that the tide

may be turning somewhat emerged at the end of May,

as an ICM poll gave As we move toward the finish,

the picture has only grown more confused -

with an online poll last week from Opinium giving

Remain a two-point lead, only for the weekend to see a YouGov

online survey placing This week a ComRes telephone poll

gave Remain a 1-point advantage, and this morning Ipsos-MORI

released a poll showing the Leave side ahead by 6 -

excluding undecided voters. And before we came on air a new poll

from Survation was released, showing a swing to Leave with 45%

favouring 'out' and 42% We can talk now to John

Curtice, President of Let's look at those polls in more

detail, what do they tell us? They tell us even phone polls are not

sure that Remain are going to win and perhaps Leave now are marginally

favourites. We had it is as morally this morning putting the Leave side

on 43 and Remain and 45. That was part relating to the changes in the

regulations of phone polls on the way they waited their data, but even

taking that into account this poll showing quite a substantial swing in

favour of Leave. The poll that has just come out confirms that story.

It is around a 5-6 point swing as compare to the same company's poll a

few months ago. The truth is, if you take the polls, the phone polls this

week, they have marginally put Leave head. The Internet polls have also

been putting Leave slightly ahead. The two polls might be converging to

some degree and converging around a picture where Leave probably now

have a narrow position of around 52-53% of the vote, which I think

Texas to a crucial point. One of the things we are aware of about

referendums is they often the appetite for change will stop we

might think some voters will go back towards Remain as they become

concerned about the risks in the last week. Once Leave are at 52-53,

I think we've reached the point where we have to save the Leave have

at least a 50% chance of winning. Let's say this is a turning point as

you are stating it. If we believe the polls as they are at the moment,

what is leading to dish it, in your mind, towards Leave?

The shift first emerges in polling conducted after the 22nd of May.

That is the day when official election period kicks in and when

the British government no longer had access to the resources of the

British civil services. Before that the Remain were controlling the

agenda and what the debate was about and focusing the referendum on the

issue of the economy and alleged dire consequences that would flow

from leaving. Since the 22nd of May, the Leave side have been at least

the equal of the Remain sights on getting their issues onto the agenda

and we have had occasions when Leave have been putting statements are and

Remain has had to respond. That is the first point. The second point,

something that has emerged in polling at the weekend and again

this morning in the Ipsos MORI poll, which is it looks as though maybe

the Remain side have over edge the pudding in their claims about what

would be the economic consequences of leaving. Only one in five of us

apparently believe we would be ?4300 worse off by 2030. More broadly,

although many of voter thinks that maybe we will be worse off if we

leave the EU, very few voters are convinced we are going to be better

off as a result of remaining. It is very much a one trick pony campaign

and it may be that record has just begun to where a bit thin for too

many voters. As we are getting very close there haven't been many people

willing to pin their colours to the mast, in terms of the result, what

is your prediction? Until this morning I would have said

to you on the balance of probability, but no more than the

balance of possibilities, Remained were the favourites. I think we no

longer have a favourite in this referendum. The balance of

probability, in terms of time to change, as you stated, you thought

this was a turning point, is there much room for manoeuvre a tree now

and next Thursday? There is a week to go, we know from recent

referendums, not least the Scottish one, that things can turn in the

course of the last week. It is pretty clear that support for US in

that referendum did diminish by couple of points also in the last

week. If Remain can get that advantage than maybe they will still

win, but it looks as though if the polls are right at all they now have

to bank on that happening, because if it doesn't happen, there must be

a serious possibility that we will vote to leave.

Danny Finkelstein, do you agree with John Curtice, that the remain side

over egged the economic consequences of leaving the EU? No, I thought it

was top class analysis, and I agreed with his forecasts. But I didn't

agree with that. Because if you believe that leaving the European

Union is a bad idea, you believe those economic consequences will

follow. Lotsa people will think it is trying to scare people, and

obviously the remain side is trying to make these points as strong as

possible. But one of my primary reasons of being in favour of remain

is that the economic consequences will be severe. Andrew does not

agree with that. Do you think the emergency budget idea backfired? My

own view of it is if we leave the European Union, the budgetary

consequences in both the short and long term will be serious, and that

is the reason, and it is worthwhile sharing that judgment, which is also

the judgment of lots of other economists with the electorate.

Naturally it is not the judgment of everybody, including people I work

with and respect and like, but it is the judgment of the remain campaign.

And certainly my judgment, and I think I should share it. Do you

think there was a point when the economic argument was won? What I

would accent is that the Remain campaign would make those arguments.

What I would argue to the reason why Leave are improving our position is

that people realise that remaining in the EU has massive risks to the

economy. We are already the third biggest contributor, we already will

be the second biggest contributor, and of course their problems are

going to end up being paid for by UK taxpayers. So people recognise if we

stay in actually it is not going to be good for our public services or

for our pockets. Thank you very much. Not long to go now. Do you not

think we are going to win? Are we on air? The answer is yes or no? I

think it is incredibly too close to call. Too close to call, I will

settle for that. Keeps us in a job anyway.

The question for today is which group have written a letter

to The Times today urging a vote to Remain, and warning

At the end of the show, Danny will give us the correct answer.

Earlier this morning, the last Labour Prime Minister chose,

not a letter in the Times, but on a stage in Manchester

In a speech to win over those still struggling to make

up their minds about how to vote, Gordon Brown delivered a passionate

speech urging people to vote to stay in the European Union.

You'll see I'm not here to make a speech in support

I'm here to make a speech in support of Labour values,

Labour supporters - I'm asking, as Labour voters,

to support the Remain vote in the European campaign.

And because this campaign is not about candidates

and it's not about parties, you're voting about the cause.

I want you to vote for a positive, a principled, a progressive case

for a European Union that creates jobs, creates opportunities,

creates infrastructure, creates security for the people

of this country, and that's where I think this debate has got to go.

In a moment, we'll be talking to the Labour donor John Mills,

But first Neil Kinnock joins us in the studio.

He of course is campaigning to remain. We heard from Gordon Brown,

we have also heard from John McDonald, the Shadow Chancellor, and

he said that a remain vote, plus a Labour government, would mean the

country getting an extra 35mm and from the European investment bank,

an extra ?1320 per household. Is he right? It is entirely feasible

because last year the European investment bank at about 5.6 billion

in loans at super cheap rates into universities, schools, the

non-governmental sector, and it is a real source of investment in

absolutely vital development that is now being properly touched. And it

would be in future, so I guess a Labour government could do it. I

actually think the Tories would be successful in doing it. Let's take

it at face value. Let's say it is feasible and credible. Does it work,

in terms of persuading voters at this late stage, to put out specific

numbers? Do they really think they will get that specific amount per

household? I am not privy to John's thoughts, but as a way of

demonstrating tangible, productive thoughts, it is a demonstration of

the access we have as of the EU. While the International Monetary

Fund does lend outside the European Union it is at a very modest level.

Virtually none. So do you think it will persuade people struggling to

decide, Labour voters particularly, do you think Labour has been united

in its message and clear in that it has been saying? I think it has been

very strong, very straightforward, strong emphasis on the social

dimension, which is sensible. Strong emphasis on the need, which I would

strongly emphasise, to sustain what ever certainty and security we can,

because the victims of uncertainty and prolonged doubt, and the victims

of instability are invariably the people that Labour most stands up

for, people on low and middle incomes. Let's take those people on

low and middle incomes. Who is right, the deputy leader, Tom

Watson, when he says we need to curb the freedom movement principle, and

you can say as someone who has experience of being in the EU and

its institutions, that is a main tenant of the European Union. Or

Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonald, who say we welcome free movement? It is

part of the single market. If we are in the free market, we have free

movement. There are doubts about the

unfettered principle of free movement. Attention is being given.

I do know what the stage of deliberations are, to the idea of

qualifying, relating for instance to free movement of workers. They are

not conclusive and I am not pretending that they are, but that

kind of consideration is taking place. The important thing, the

absolutely vital thing is that since we have free movement, what we need

to attend to is the way in which it can be abused by unscrupulous

employers, by the way they only advertise abroad, by gang masters

and those who would, regardless of the origins of their workforce, the

underpaying them and mistreating them in any case. That is what we

have to attend to. It is quite late in the day some might argue for

someone like Tom Watson to be raising this idea, but why can't

people in the Remain side, not you particularly, bring themselves to

say forget about all of the economic dire warnings, the scaremongering

going on, we believe the EU is a really good thing and Britain should

stay in it? Yes, anything that is the message coming through. Can I

address this business about scaremongering? We have seen is

analysis by all the independent analysts, by the Bank of England, by

the trade unions, and the conclusion they reach is that we would invite

great uncertainty and insecurity if we were to come out of the European

Union. But the poll show that is not working. OK, but what they have been

doing is Chad allegiance, risk analysis, not scaremongering, and it

is the kind of thing you do before you bought a car or a house, so we

have got to do it before we decide future of our country and children.

So let's push the scaremongering side to one side and put it into

proportion of whether it is. Today, we have a Tory MP attacking the

government and the bank in and for doing his job. The attack would have

had to have been mounted if Mr Carney had not been doing his job.

All right, that was Neil Canet, O'Neill said your son there!

LAUGHTER I didn't say anything! -- that was

Neil Kinnock. John Mills, welcome to the programme. Gordon Brown has said

today that it was EU funding that stopped the Conservatives turning

our industrial heartlands to industrial wastelands in the 1980s.

Is he right? I don't think that can possibly be right. We were paying a

large net contribution to the European Union during that time, so

funds were coming back from the European Union to help industry in

that country, but it would have been our own money coming back, not fresh

money from the European Union coming from somewhere else. What about the

claim Gordon Brown makes that staying in the EU will mean an extra

500,000 jobs in the next ten years. Is he wrong about that? I don't see

how anyone can make projections like that but any credibility. Nobody

knows what's going to happen. I think the British economy is

threatened by a number of external and internal threats at the moment,

which are much more significant than anything to do with Brexit. So we

may well see a downturn coming up but that won't be the fault of

Brexit, it will be because of instability in Greece and Italy and

Saudi Arabia and China, and problems in the UK with our very unbalanced

economy. You said there will be a external factors affecting the

economy, but if we take the issue of jobs, you say Gordon Brown can't

look into the future and make that claim. Let's have a look at the

employment figures as they stand. Yesterday showed the unemployed and

great just 5%, the lowest since 2005. We have achieved that

well-being in the EU, so surely that is a very big push to staying in? I

think that is something very much to be welcomed. Whether it is our

membership of the European Union that has done that, I think it is a

rather open question. I think what we have seen recently is a consumer

boom fed by rising asset values, which have in turn been fed by very

low interest rates. But what we really need is more investment and

more net trade, more sales and exports, than consumer led demand.

It is nice to see employment as high as it is, but investment for the

future is perhaps more important. You have been someone who has

campaigned for more investment in some of our great cities. Labour say

staying in the EU will actually help cities like Manchester, Birmingham,

Glasgow and Newcastle, and these are the people that run these cities.

Back to the same old issue, money is having from the European Union that

we paid in in the first place. The gross amount we pay to the European

Union is about ?19 billion a year. We get about eight billion pounds

back altogether, so the total debt payments, including payments to EU

budget and other things is about ?11 billion. There are big savings to be

made there, which could be used partly to help inner cities, partly

to help agriculture, industry. That is where one of the big dividends

would be from the European Union would come from. How would that

qualify into numeric terms, in terms of investment going into those

heartlands? Of the ?11 billion, which is a large sum of money, I

don't think anybody has divided that up exactly as to where it would go.

Somewhat have to get agriculture if we came out of the common

agricultural policy and moved to a cheaper food policy, which we had

before we joined the European Union. I think there are two of ?3 billion

involve there. There are other claims as well, promises made about

more funding for the National Health Service as well, another hundred

million pounds a week or so. There are some big sums of money involved.

But I think there would still be left over quite large sums for city

projects as well. Just briefly on immigration, Nigel Farage has said

he would like to see immigration come down to just 50,000 a year, I

think he said to you, Andrew in the recent debate. Last year, net

migration was about 330,000, with just over half coming from outside

the EU, not within. What would July to see happen to immigration numbers

within the EU, sorry, if we left the EU? Migration watch, who have a very

good track record on this, estimate the reduction we could reasonably

expect to see is something in the order of 120,000 people per year,

and that would bring the total net immigration down from its current

330,000 to a bit over 200,000. And you think that would be a healthy

number? I do think there is any easy solution to the immigration problem,

to be honest with you, especially if the British economy does really

well, or relatively well anyway, and the European economy has all the

trouble is that it has got with the Eurozone accentuated. And we have a

living wage of ?9 an hour, which is about four times the average wage in

remaining and Bulgaria. John Mills and Neil Cannock, thank

you. Andrea said it is too close to call, do you agree? Probably, the

only thing I agree with her about! -- Neil Kinnock. It seems anyone who

is anyone in the referendum campaign has been to Cornwall.

Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn and Alan Johnson have all been

Well, our Adam headed to the southwest to see for himself

what the Cornish make of the EU referendum.

It's stunning, and has an intriguing relationship with the EU,

so Cornwall's a great place for handsome broadcasters with a

Cornwall has its own way of looking at the world,

and it's quite cussive, and quite stroppy, and if you're

going to find that kind of British characteristic of not liking

being told what to do, you'll find it here.

Nowhere is that clearer than the fish market

Ask fishing folk about Europe, and there is a tidal wave of anger,

mostly about quotas and how foreign boats are allowed within six

Just rubbing salt in the wounds, taking our fish, billions

of pounds of value of fish are being landed elsewhere.

That money could be giving us jobs in our fishing industry and helping

to support our fishermen, and other workers in this

Most fishermen here are happy to fly a leave

Some are happy to defend the EU and say that other forces

Boris Johnson kicked off his Brexit campaign brandishing one of these,

saying that Cornwall could export more, freed from the supposed

Yet the Cornish Pasty Association is for Remain,

because pasties are protected under EU law.

It has left the owner here flummoxed.

There are pros and cons on each side, so I'm still undecided.

And pasties aren't really coming into that?

They won't be my final decision, they are part of it.

If Cornwall sends loads of these to the EU, then the EU sends loads

More than a ?1.5 billion euros of regional funding is being spent

in the county, some of it on the iconic Eden Project.

It is a charity, so is staying neutral.

Since we have joined the EU, we have had one new university,

one upgraded university, huge further education construction,

God knows how many hotels, good restaurants, galleries.

And the most important thing is that Cornwall has become a place

where people come to make a career, rather than to end one.

Leavers reckon a future British government would still funnel

Lionel Richie did two concerts in Cornwall this week.

Hardly anyone here would write a love song for the EU,

but will this part of the West Country vote to break up?

Joining us now is Matthew Goodwin, Professor of Politics

Cornwall gets lots of money from the European Union. Some will say we

sent it there in the first place, but it gets it there, 1.5 billion

euros of regional funding. But in few years for Remain seems muted.

Why do you think that is? I think Cornwall represents a lot of

other areas in the country, where support for Leave is stronger than

we might expect. As a country we are very divided, not just by class and

generation but by geography. Here you have coastal area, big fishing

industry, older demographic, really playing to some of the messages

Leave are running on. The same would have happened if you went to Great

Grimsby on the east coast. The big, young urban cities will turn out en

masse for Remain, but elsewhere I think Leave will have a good day.

Geography is important? Lin critical. We are incredibly divided.

We are looking at where campaigns focusing. Remain targeting those

young university towns, Oxford, Cambridge, Brighton, Bristol. Leave

is spending a lot of time on the east coast, cultivated last year at

the general election by the rise of the UK Independence party and

historically has always been the home of anti-London, anti-elite

revolts. Remain people say to me they have a puzzle. They believe

they have won the economic arguments, the public largely accept

leaving is a bigger risk than remaining. But they also say but we

haven't managed to get through to people our other message, which is

we will be worse off, you will be worse off if you leave. People

either don't think that don't seem to make it a major factor. Is that

true? I don't think Remain have run a very good campaign in my own view.

They have left the field of identity completely open, and that is

dominating this referendum. Look at the broadcast a few days ago, no

politicians but not a single mention of immigration, no mention of that

whatsoever. I think the view internally in the Remain camp is

let's get this focused on economic than we won't discuss our opponent's

view. Some really important ComRes data a few days ago, 62% of the

population were willing to take and economic knock if it meant having

control of immigration. We had a new poll this morning, from the leaves

campaign. One of these dramatic pictures came when the refugees who

had landed in Greece from Turkey were then... It is a Ukip poster,

not part of the Leave campaign. What it does show is one of these

pictures as the refugees were making their way up through the Balkans to

get up into Austria and then Germany. This is the Leave campaign

now down essentially to that, it is a very good political

strategy. If you are being provocative that is what you should

be doing, focusing on the number one issue focusing their voters. Ipsos

MORI took a group of voters and said if immigration status same how would

you vote, 81% said the same, Remain. Then they put an increased number in

front of them, by the time they got to the final scenario, that

immigration would increase 200%, nearly half of the Remain vote had

switched to unsure. That Remain vote is a lot shakier than people think.

I corrected myself, a Ukip poster, not the official vote leaves

campaign, because there has been some tension between them on how big

immigration should be. That has the Remain campaign suffered by not

having a credible reply on the immigration issue?

I think the right way to have run the campaign has hammered the issues

on which you are strong. The problem with changing the issues is you

emphasise that concern. I think the big question that will settle the

referendum is whether people feel they personally will lose out.

Economic league? Yes, and if they feel it is a long-term effect. The

question of whether that has got home is going to be what settles the

referendum. If Remain get Paul Dunne to the immigration territory, for

all that I understand your point, I think it would be a losing strategy.

-- get pulled into. Only a week to go. Mother is very excited! We won't

ask which way she's going to vote. Now, the Prime Minster has raised

the spectre of World War three breaking out in the wake of a win

for Leave next week. And in the last few days it's

looking more and more likely he will be right, at least

within the Conservative Party. We've had skirmishes

for the last few weeks... But yesterday saw a serious

escalation as Conservatives, both junior and senior,

put the Chancellor firmly This behaviour is utterly

irresponsible, it is going to damage the economy, because he scares

people, and that's not right. We were well prepared

for the Chancellor to say this. You have to ask why,

it is because he can't make a positive case

for the European Union, he can't make a positive

case for the reforms. They didn't get anything worth

having. So they are reduce to just trying

to scare us to stay in. The Chancellor, basically,

needs to calm down, and regrettably If we do vote to leave the EU,

will you be supporting No, because I think what we have

heard from the Remain campaign throughout this whole referendum

have been dire warnings. Let's assume for the next few

minutes with our discussion that it is a narrow Remain victory, which

would not... It is possibly forecast in the polls. What are the

consequences for the Prime Minister and Chancellor? I think the rout

inside the party has been very serious on it. It has been seriously

years but making it go public has made it even more serious. You

cannot imagine that won't have a big impact. It is difficult to tell how

Sirius it will be because you don't know how quickly people will move

onto other issues. -- how serious. With no way of testing whether the

Chancellor's figures were rubbish, feeling cheated in argument, and

there will be some rows about issues on the side like leaflets on things,

but it will be cheated an argument, and that will obviously have a

long-term effect on trust and relationships. May be the Prime

Minister's thinking, given he would hope to hold on in the wake of

Remain, that one way to bats take the sting out of it going forward

would be to remove Mr Osborne from the Treasury. Is that to make

Foreign Secretary, maybe bring in Michael Gove as Chancellor only

unity ticket? He will have to do some things to unite the

Conservative Party. But the question isn't specific it is just a question

of how big, how much trustee can gain back in general and how much he

can unite the party on other issues. -- how much trust he can gain back.

I do think there could be a reshuffle. But don't forget when you

talk about him losing his position of leader, he has the majority of

Conservative MPs for Remain. If you take out the payroll vote does he

have a majority of Conservative MPs? I don't know, I think you have done

the mathematics. I don't know if he'd does. I don't think that is

that relevant, what is relevant is you have the majority of

Conservative members of Parliament, you cannot remove the leader under

those circumstances. They will also have a strong feeling... Of course,

politics is chemistry not physics. There will be elements of anger and

he will have to try to respond to them as best he can. Naturally

Berisha forks, naturally involving potentially the Chancellor is one of

his options. Of course he has a majority, will probably still have

that after the referendum. Conservative backbenchers could make

things difficult for him. A small majority, he could have a zombie

government not able to do very much at all. How quickly do you think

there will be a referendum, sorry, a reshuffle? I wouldn't have thought

he would want to do it until the autumn. Immediately after the

referendum, if you have won, you want to make people feel, I have to

come back onside. You don't want to immediately tell them, you're not

going to be in the government and they have an incentive to rebel. You

want a little distance. I wouldn't anticipate it until after recess. At

the moment, David Cameron's game plan, assuming he stays as Prime

Minister until 2019, his private game plan, there will be a

leadership contest in the summer of 2019 six or seven months before the

next general election. If it is very narrow, will he be able to do that?

If it is very narrow and there is continued disruption on the Tory

benches, will he be able to stay until May, 2019? I would think so.

There are lots of conservatives who want to remain, probably the

majority of Conservative voters. Why make you think a majority? Probably.

We will have to see what the result is. That is one of the issues that

will set all the referendum. Not a majority of members, but the point

is anybody wants to be leader of the Conservative Party after David

Cameron has to have those people with them. Some of them anyway. They

also need to think about how they can act in relation to David

Cameron, it is not one-way. Let me ask you this, on the basis if Remain

wins, let's assume Leave Winscombe how quickly will David Cameron

resign? I think he would resign and have to quite quickly. You wouldn't

leave office immediately. It would be hard for him to do the

negotiations necessary to make leaving a success, in as far as it

can be. In these circumstances would Boris Johnson be pretty much

unstoppable as the next leader? We are all guessing, don't forget

they have doing the support of Remain members of Parliament. Among

the membership less so, and therefore I think Boris would be

very, very strong in those circumstances, yes. Do you think

there is any chance in the event of a Leave of chaos breaking out in the

ruling country, that there could be a general election before 2020? Is

that a possibility? The ruling party would have to agree to have a

general election. Because you need 66% of the Commons. They would be

possible. It is when the ruling party is strong you can see a case

of trying to exploit Jeremy Corbyn's weaknesses, but when the ruling in

chaos, you certainly wouldn't. What is the mood in Street at the moment?

You have to ask them. They have said we are in a funk. Other people will

be authorities on this, but my understanding is that they are

relatively calm about it. They think it is very tight, but they still

think they stand a very strong chance that they probably will win

the referendum, and they don't really see the point of a panic.

That is what I understand their view to be. You must be speaking to

different people from me. Still a week to go.

Over the last few weeks, we have been showcasing

the arguments for remaining in the EU and leaving it

On Monday, we looked at how Green supporters are approaching the vote

but we had a technical problem with Green MP Caroline Lucas's film

We've sorted out the gremlins now and as promised,

Some people will try to scare you into voting one way

We believe we are more effective when we work with our neighbours

to tackle the common challenges that we face -

challenges like the refugee crisis and climate change.

EU rules protect workers from bad bosses and stop companies

EU rules cut pollution in our cities and clean up our rivers

EU membership boosts jobs in every part of the country, too.

And we celebrate freedom of movement, because it gives us

the ability to live and work, study and retire across the whole

of the EU, and because we recognise the enormous contribution that EU

nationals make to Britain - to our NHS, to our economy,

The EU isn't perfect, we'd like it to be more

accountable and democratic, but we believe Britain is fairer,

safer and greener because of the EU, and we're fighting to stay

We saw off the gremlins and the Greens have their say.

With everyone so focussed on the referendum, there's been

a political vote which may well have passed under your radar.

I'm talking about the vote to decide the next Speaker

Now, this being the Lords, only peers of the realm could take part.

Now hold on to the edge of your seat - here's the result.

My Lords, I can now announce the result of the election

Details of the votes cast are being made available

The successful candidate was Lord Fowler.

What we've seen today is a parliamentary first.

This is the first time a man has been elected...

To the role of Lord Speaker, and I think nowadays there are few

positions in public life of which that can be said.

Of course, with the election over, the good news is that the bar

on offering hospitality now comes to an end,

and we can buy drinks for colleagues.

The bad news is that inadvertently today I seem to have

And the new Lord Speaker, Norman Fowler joins us

-- from the Houses of Parliament. Congratulations to you, something of

a landslide, about 69% of the vote I understand. Probably bigger than you

ever got as a MP, had a Jew pull it off? Actually I got quite high

percentages as an MP. We obviously -- how did you pull it off? It is

extremely important, because I am not just speaking for anyone group,

I am speaking for the whole house, and if the whole house puts their

position in that way, then that strengthens me. And we heard

Baroness Smith congratulating you on being the first man to hold this

position, so is your victory a triumph for gender equality? I think

it is just a bit of an accident that that has happened. We have had two

extremely able women who have been Lord Speaker, and I don't think

there was any prejudice, in fact, against there being a third woman.

In fact one of the candidates was there. So Fichardt had anything to

do with that. The great thing about the Lords is that, over the years,

in terms of women representation, it has gone up and up. Yes, as has the

number overall of course, if there is any room for any more! Now, what

about what you want to achieve in your role? The first thing I really

want to achieve is to try to get over to the public generally the

public interest that the House of Lords serves. I mean, we do hold the

government to account, but also what we do with that we checked on

legislation, which may have been, if you like, guillotined in the House

of Commons. I don't regard this job, or our role, as in conflict with the

Commons. I think we are complimentary to the Commons. Just

to get a better legislation on the statute book, and also we don't want

a situation where the government, the executive, can override

everything. Right, but do you think that recently the Lords has been a

bit too willing to challenge the Commons in this Parliament. If we

take some of the high-profile pieces of legislation that they have

successfully challenged, tax credit proposals, for example, that has led

the government to say there are constitutional issues, in other

words the Lords, that need to be dealt with? I think we should be a

little relaxed about that. If you take the tax credits issue, I know

the tax credit issue, I spoke in favour when I was a partisan

politician, in the old days, in favour of it. But I noticed that

immediately it went back to the Commons, it was dropped, and I think

it allowed the Commons to think again, and I think the government

probably came to the conclusion that they were going to have some

difficulty getting it through the Commons. So I think that was quite a

useful thing for the Lords to have done. There were a whole range of

other things, I can think of things from my own experience, when we have

sent things back to the Commons, which the Commons have accepted. So

of course there is going to be conflict from time to time, but we

are not in a state of perpetual conflict. No, just some of the time.

Norman Fowler, enjoy your new role. The house of lords, the second

biggest legislature in the world, after the Chinese politburo. And

obviously much more important! Boom boom. I should have told you the

Bank of England has kept interest rates the same, 0.5% again,

following yesterday's decision by the Fed, which was more up for grabs

in Washington. So a summer looking like another summer of low interest

rates. So have you made up mind how

to vote next Thursday? If you haven't, you're not alone -

up to 30% of people will change the way they vote or make

up their minds in this last week according to research by academics

at the London School of Economics. We sent our reporter Mark Lobel

to Kingston upon Thames in southwest London to see if people there had

made up their minds. We've come to Kingston market,

where Kingston's MPs are divided over whether Britain should

leave the EU. But with so much campaigning

on either side, and with just a week to go, have people made

up their minds? We've come to find out if people

are decided or undecided. I'm still looking at the news,

and getting some ideas. And just as we were getting going,

look which MEP walked our way. Do you think you've done a good

enough job of persuading people Actually, I haven't been trying

to persuade people I've actually been going

round giving talks, I've decided, but not

because of the people I think there are too many

politicians, there should be more ordinary people telling

you what it's going to do to them. I really don't want to lose our

identity, to lose our sovereignty, to lose control of our borders,

blah, blah, blah. But ultimately, it will be

a gut feeling. I've known all along how

I was going to vote, really. So the campaigns have

made no difference? So the campaigns haven't made any

difference to you? Thank you very much,

you can come again! We're halfway through the lunchtime

rush, and I think I can see You've decided that

you have decided? Is that because you just made

up your decision? I've decided that I've decided,

maybe because of you! # When you see how it's going to be,

you're making your mind up #. Cameron two or three months before

said we would leave if we didn't get the deal, and now

he says we have to stay in, and he's not got a better

deal out of this. I know it is important and it

matters, which is one of the reasons why it's so frustrating that I can't

seem to make up my mind. I feel like neither

of them are good options. # When you can see how it's

going to be, # You're Have you just made that

decision recently? I've taken a lot of information

and heard a lot of the debates, The view from Kingston market

is pretty clear - the campaigns only have a small proportion

of people left to persuade, so the biggest decision now

is what to have for lunch, a French crepe, an Italian pizza,

or a nice hot Cornish pasty...? Or a brandy and soda. Still a number

of don't knows. Do you really think this LS E research that 30% are yet

to make up their minds? I haven't seen their exact word is, but often

the people who say they are undecided have decided, they just

don't know it. When you begin to press people on their underlying

feelings, you discover that they do really know what they think, but

they just haven't finally said that is definitely my view explicitly,

but really you can work out what they're going to do. I think there

probably isn't 30% of people who are going to change their mind or who

have not decided at this point. We have to do our quiz. Oh gosh, I had

forgotten about that. There's just time before we go

to find out the answer to our quiz. The question was which group have

written a joint letter to The Times today urging a vote to Remain,

and warning of the dangers It could be anyone, but it is

celebrity chefs. Thanks to our guests,

especially our guest of the day The one o'clock news is starting

over on BBC One now. And I'll be on BBC One

for an extended This Week on air until the Tooting by-election result

is announced with Michael Portillo, Chuka Umunna, Sian Berry,

Diane James, James Cleverly, pub landlord Al Murrary,

and some newbie called ...