16/06/2016 Daily Politics


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Just one week to go until the EU referendum.


A group of senior Conservatives accuse the Bank of England


and the Treasury of "peddling phoney forecasts" to scare people


But Remain campaigners accuse Leave of "yet more fantasy economics".


Gordon Brown has delivered a passionate speech urging people


He said he was making the "positive progressive case" for staying in.


And does where you live in the UK affect how


We headed southwest, to see how people there


Cornwall has its own way of looking at the world,


and it's quite cussive and quite stroppy, and if you're going to


find that kind of British characteristic of not liking being


told what to do, you'll find it here.


All that in the next hour and with us for the duration Times


columnist and Conservative peer, Danny Finkelstein.


He's got a dream day lined up today, combining his two great passions -


What could be better than being with us on the Daily Politics,


and then the England versus Wales match afterwards?


Thank you. It's like a game of Association football. Yes.


So first today, let's talk about the four senior


Conservatives who have accused the Bank of England and the Treasury


of "peddling phoney forecasts", to scare people into voting to stay


Former chancellors Norman Lamont and Nigel Lawson and ex-Tory leaders


Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard poured scorn on warnings of economic


We had this forecast of ?3400 lost from every


That was not in any way a balanced approach to this subject.


And it would have been far better, I think, if these institutions,


which you've described, had tried to present a balanced


There are only three facts in this debate -


Number one, if we leave we won't have to pay billions


of pounds into the coffers of the EU.


Number two, we'll have control over our immigration again.


And number three, our Parliament will not be subordinate


Those are the only facts - everything else is guesswork,


and it's a great shame that this guesswork has been presented


as fact, when it's nothing of the kind.


Well, David Cameron responded with a tweet this morning.


We're joined now by the Conservative MP


and Leave campaigner, Andrea Leadsom, a former


And our guest of the day, Danny Finkelstein,


This Tory civil war is reaching quite dramatic heights. Is it worse


than you thought it would be? I think it is slightly, but if I


thought about it rationally, it is a very big issue, people feel very


strongly about and once in gauge in it, you have to try your best to win


the argument. It has a momentum of its own? Michael Howard clearly


sincerely believes it is guesswork to see the economy would be damaged.


I equally sincerely, whilst except it is speculative, that you have to


look at risk and you have to make a decent assessment of probability. I


think the consensus is against what Michael has to say. Andrea, your


side is pouring scorn on institutions like the Bank of


England, the Treasury, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, it's all a


little Donald Trump, isn't it? Not at all, I think what we are saying


is the forecasts that are being put out assume a modest trade deal with


the EU, no free trade with anyone else in the world for 15 years and


are productivity collapses. It is not surprising, if you put those


assumptions in, you get bad forecasts out. There is an important


point about the Bank of England here. They're remit is financial


stability and they have independent monetary policy setting but not in


any other area. The Bank of England setting out with an -- partial view


is dangerous. Do you think the governor has gone beyond his remit?


Yes, I think that is something the select committee might want to look


into when it is over. You believe it to be so? I think the Bank of


England act is very clear, the governor has independents in setting


monetary policy and in all other matters must be impartial. The Bank


of England in the past has talked about the risks of remaining and the


risks to public services under downward pressure on wages, the


risks from the Greek problem in the Eurozone yet none of that came out


this time. It was just what investors might do and what


households might do, not in his remit. Ukraine people are making


unrealistic assumptions on the other side of the argument. Though not all


the assumptions you listed are made by everybody. -- you said people are


making unrealistic assumptions. It is a fair assumption if we leave,


that whatever our relationship is with the EU, and of course we will


continue to have a trading relationship, I don't think anyone


could do neither, but it will not be as open and give us the same open,


untrammelled access we have now. That is a fair assumption, isn't it?


I don't agree. The fact is we are unique in the world, having an


economy that is totally aligned for the last 43 is, all of our roles,


the contents of the sausage is aligned to that of the EU. We


currently trade tariff free so be very easy and more in their interest


than owls to continue to trade tariff free. You are claiming we


could leave the EU, which would mean, because you've made a big song


and arms about it, ending free movement of peoples, but we would


still access the single market on the same basis as we do now? We


would continue to trade tariff free because it is more in their


interests than ours. Let me be clear, on the same basis as now, we


would trade on the same basis is your claim? It is absolutely in


their interests even more than ours. We have a big deficit with the


European Union. Let's be clear, the EU has some modest trade agreements


with the rest of the world, not as much as Switzerland, but it does


have some. And they do not have free movement of labour. So is to suggest


the only way to access the European market tariff free is with freedom


of movement is not true, Andrew. If Europe was to agree that there would


be no price of membership for being part of the single market, that


there is no free movement. We won't be part of the single market. You're


saying we would have the same access as if we were. No, the single market


has become a big issue. We do not want to be in the single market, we


want to trade tariff free. But in the terms of trade, the same access


as we do now? I believe so. If the European Union conceded that to us,


what would stop Sweden, Denmark, Poland, other countries on, we'll


have that as well, if the Brits get that? The European Union elite is


never going to agree to that, you know that. The point is it is not up


to the European elite. We hear so much about the European elite. It is


up to them. Businesses do business with businesses. We don't even have


a free-trade agreement with the United States. You don't need a


free-trade agreement to do business. They are telling us not to leave the


EU. No, Dyson, the bulk of SMEs are telling us to leave. The bulk, it is


the bulk, the bulk of big businesses are telling Britain to stay in the


European Union. Big businesses. That's what I said. We are all


proposing we should ignore that... What makes you think if your advice


is to ignore that it is not the advice of other European countries


question mark Jamie Diamond of JP Morgan says we should stay in EU. JP


Morgan have been fined $8 billion for their deliberate part in


creating the financial crisis that brought the world to its knees. Can


make speak for the poor people, the workers in this country? I have one


question. You've claimed, your colleagues, if we leave we can


design rules, talking about access rules, that sued the British


economy, not the requirements of Latvia or Spain. What Latvian


requirements have we had to meet? What I'm saying is that because we


have a big trade deficit with Europe, because they sell more to us


than we do to them. That's all I'm asking you. Your people are saying


we have to meet the requirements of Latvia or Spain. So let me widen it


to both, what requirements from Latvia or Spain have we been forced


to meet? The UK, 60% of all our rules and regulations come from the


European Union. There are all manner of regulations about things like the


live export of animals, VAT on fuel bills, with forced to obey those. So


you can't name any? They're named under 28 EU states by the European


Commission. We will leave it there. The polls are generally


uncertain on how the nation will vote on June 23rd,


but as we get closer to that date, Including some this morning and


another later on today. After the fiasco of last


year's general election, there's been a lot more attention


paid in this campaign Phone polls have most


frequently shown Remain with a lead, whereas online polls have tended


to show the two sides neck and neck. Let's plot a very small number


of the polls so far. In the middle of May an Ipsos


MORI phone poll gave Remain an 18-point lead -


by far the biggest in But signs that the tide


may be turning somewhat emerged at the end of May,


as an ICM poll gave As we move toward the finish,


the picture has only grown more confused -


with an online poll last week from Opinium giving


Remain a two-point lead, only for the weekend to see a YouGov


online survey placing This week a ComRes telephone poll


gave Remain a 1-point advantage, and this morning Ipsos-MORI


released a poll showing the Leave side ahead by 6 -


excluding undecided voters. And before we came on air a new poll


from Survation was released, showing a swing to Leave with 45%


favouring 'out' and 42% We can talk now to John


Curtice, President of Let's look at those polls in more


detail, what do they tell us? They tell us even phone polls are not


sure that Remain are going to win and perhaps Leave now are marginally


favourites. We had it is as morally this morning putting the Leave side


on 43 and Remain and 45. That was part relating to the changes in the


regulations of phone polls on the way they waited their data, but even


taking that into account this poll showing quite a substantial swing in


favour of Leave. The poll that has just come out confirms that story.


It is around a 5-6 point swing as compare to the same company's poll a


few months ago. The truth is, if you take the polls, the phone polls this


week, they have marginally put Leave head. The Internet polls have also


been putting Leave slightly ahead. The two polls might be converging to


some degree and converging around a picture where Leave probably now


have a narrow position of around 52-53% of the vote, which I think


Texas to a crucial point. One of the things we are aware of about


referendums is they often the appetite for change will stop we


might think some voters will go back towards Remain as they become


concerned about the risks in the last week. Once Leave are at 52-53,


I think we've reached the point where we have to save the Leave have


at least a 50% chance of winning. Let's say this is a turning point as


you are stating it. If we believe the polls as they are at the moment,


what is leading to dish it, in your mind, towards Leave?


The shift first emerges in polling conducted after the 22nd of May.


That is the day when official election period kicks in and when


the British government no longer had access to the resources of the


British civil services. Before that the Remain were controlling the


agenda and what the debate was about and focusing the referendum on the


issue of the economy and alleged dire consequences that would flow


from leaving. Since the 22nd of May, the Leave side have been at least


the equal of the Remain sights on getting their issues onto the agenda


and we have had occasions when Leave have been putting statements are and


Remain has had to respond. That is the first point. The second point,


something that has emerged in polling at the weekend and again


this morning in the Ipsos MORI poll, which is it looks as though maybe


the Remain side have over edge the pudding in their claims about what


would be the economic consequences of leaving. Only one in five of us


apparently believe we would be ?4300 worse off by 2030. More broadly,


although many of voter thinks that maybe we will be worse off if we


leave the EU, very few voters are convinced we are going to be better


off as a result of remaining. It is very much a one trick pony campaign


and it may be that record has just begun to where a bit thin for too


many voters. As we are getting very close there haven't been many people


willing to pin their colours to the mast, in terms of the result, what


is your prediction? Until this morning I would have said


to you on the balance of probability, but no more than the


balance of possibilities, Remained were the favourites. I think we no


longer have a favourite in this referendum. The balance of


probability, in terms of time to change, as you stated, you thought


this was a turning point, is there much room for manoeuvre a tree now


and next Thursday? There is a week to go, we know from recent


referendums, not least the Scottish one, that things can turn in the


course of the last week. It is pretty clear that support for US in


that referendum did diminish by couple of points also in the last


week. If Remain can get that advantage than maybe they will still


win, but it looks as though if the polls are right at all they now have


to bank on that happening, because if it doesn't happen, there must be


a serious possibility that we will vote to leave.


Danny Finkelstein, do you agree with John Curtice, that the remain side


over egged the economic consequences of leaving the EU? No, I thought it


was top class analysis, and I agreed with his forecasts. But I didn't


agree with that. Because if you believe that leaving the European


Union is a bad idea, you believe those economic consequences will


follow. Lotsa people will think it is trying to scare people, and


obviously the remain side is trying to make these points as strong as


possible. But one of my primary reasons of being in favour of remain


is that the economic consequences will be severe. Andrew does not


agree with that. Do you think the emergency budget idea backfired? My


own view of it is if we leave the European Union, the budgetary


consequences in both the short and long term will be serious, and that


is the reason, and it is worthwhile sharing that judgment, which is also


the judgment of lots of other economists with the electorate.


Naturally it is not the judgment of everybody, including people I work


with and respect and like, but it is the judgment of the remain campaign.


And certainly my judgment, and I think I should share it. Do you


think there was a point when the economic argument was won? What I


would accent is that the Remain campaign would make those arguments.


What I would argue to the reason why Leave are improving our position is


that people realise that remaining in the EU has massive risks to the


economy. We are already the third biggest contributor, we already will


be the second biggest contributor, and of course their problems are


going to end up being paid for by UK taxpayers. So people recognise if we


stay in actually it is not going to be good for our public services or


for our pockets. Thank you very much. Not long to go now. Do you not


think we are going to win? Are we on air? The answer is yes or no? I


think it is incredibly too close to call. Too close to call, I will


settle for that. Keeps us in a job anyway.


The question for today is which group have written a letter


to The Times today urging a vote to Remain, and warning


At the end of the show, Danny will give us the correct answer.


Earlier this morning, the last Labour Prime Minister chose,


not a letter in the Times, but on a stage in Manchester


In a speech to win over those still struggling to make


up their minds about how to vote, Gordon Brown delivered a passionate


speech urging people to vote to stay in the European Union.


You'll see I'm not here to make a speech in support


I'm here to make a speech in support of Labour values,


Labour supporters - I'm asking, as Labour voters,


to support the Remain vote in the European campaign.


And because this campaign is not about candidates


and it's not about parties, you're voting about the cause.


I want you to vote for a positive, a principled, a progressive case


for a European Union that creates jobs, creates opportunities,


creates infrastructure, creates security for the people


of this country, and that's where I think this debate has got to go.


In a moment, we'll be talking to the Labour donor John Mills,


But first Neil Kinnock joins us in the studio.


He of course is campaigning to remain. We heard from Gordon Brown,


we have also heard from John McDonald, the Shadow Chancellor, and


he said that a remain vote, plus a Labour government, would mean the


country getting an extra 35mm and from the European investment bank,


an extra ?1320 per household. Is he right? It is entirely feasible


because last year the European investment bank at about 5.6 billion


in loans at super cheap rates into universities, schools, the


non-governmental sector, and it is a real source of investment in


absolutely vital development that is now being properly touched. And it


would be in future, so I guess a Labour government could do it. I


actually think the Tories would be successful in doing it. Let's take


it at face value. Let's say it is feasible and credible. Does it work,


in terms of persuading voters at this late stage, to put out specific


numbers? Do they really think they will get that specific amount per


household? I am not privy to John's thoughts, but as a way of


demonstrating tangible, productive thoughts, it is a demonstration of


the access we have as of the EU. While the International Monetary


Fund does lend outside the European Union it is at a very modest level.


Virtually none. So do you think it will persuade people struggling to


decide, Labour voters particularly, do you think Labour has been united


in its message and clear in that it has been saying? I think it has been


very strong, very straightforward, strong emphasis on the social


dimension, which is sensible. Strong emphasis on the need, which I would


strongly emphasise, to sustain what ever certainty and security we can,


because the victims of uncertainty and prolonged doubt, and the victims


of instability are invariably the people that Labour most stands up


for, people on low and middle incomes. Let's take those people on


low and middle incomes. Who is right, the deputy leader, Tom


Watson, when he says we need to curb the freedom movement principle, and


you can say as someone who has experience of being in the EU and


its institutions, that is a main tenant of the European Union. Or


Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonald, who say we welcome free movement? It is


part of the single market. If we are in the free market, we have free


movement. There are doubts about the


unfettered principle of free movement. Attention is being given.


I do know what the stage of deliberations are, to the idea of


qualifying, relating for instance to free movement of workers. They are


not conclusive and I am not pretending that they are, but that


kind of consideration is taking place. The important thing, the


absolutely vital thing is that since we have free movement, what we need


to attend to is the way in which it can be abused by unscrupulous


employers, by the way they only advertise abroad, by gang masters


and those who would, regardless of the origins of their workforce, the


underpaying them and mistreating them in any case. That is what we


have to attend to. It is quite late in the day some might argue for


someone like Tom Watson to be raising this idea, but why can't


people in the Remain side, not you particularly, bring themselves to


say forget about all of the economic dire warnings, the scaremongering


going on, we believe the EU is a really good thing and Britain should


stay in it? Yes, anything that is the message coming through. Can I


address this business about scaremongering? We have seen is


analysis by all the independent analysts, by the Bank of England, by


the trade unions, and the conclusion they reach is that we would invite


great uncertainty and insecurity if we were to come out of the European


Union. But the poll show that is not working. OK, but what they have been


doing is Chad allegiance, risk analysis, not scaremongering, and it


is the kind of thing you do before you bought a car or a house, so we


have got to do it before we decide future of our country and children.


So let's push the scaremongering side to one side and put it into


proportion of whether it is. Today, we have a Tory MP attacking the


government and the bank in and for doing his job. The attack would have


had to have been mounted if Mr Carney had not been doing his job.


All right, that was Neil Canet, O'Neill said your son there!


LAUGHTER I didn't say anything! -- that was


Neil Kinnock. John Mills, welcome to the programme. Gordon Brown has said


today that it was EU funding that stopped the Conservatives turning


our industrial heartlands to industrial wastelands in the 1980s.


Is he right? I don't think that can possibly be right. We were paying a


large net contribution to the European Union during that time, so


funds were coming back from the European Union to help industry in


that country, but it would have been our own money coming back, not fresh


money from the European Union coming from somewhere else. What about the


claim Gordon Brown makes that staying in the EU will mean an extra


500,000 jobs in the next ten years. Is he wrong about that? I don't see


how anyone can make projections like that but any credibility. Nobody


knows what's going to happen. I think the British economy is


threatened by a number of external and internal threats at the moment,


which are much more significant than anything to do with Brexit. So we


may well see a downturn coming up but that won't be the fault of


Brexit, it will be because of instability in Greece and Italy and


Saudi Arabia and China, and problems in the UK with our very unbalanced


economy. You said there will be a external factors affecting the


economy, but if we take the issue of jobs, you say Gordon Brown can't


look into the future and make that claim. Let's have a look at the


employment figures as they stand. Yesterday showed the unemployed and


great just 5%, the lowest since 2005. We have achieved that


well-being in the EU, so surely that is a very big push to staying in? I


think that is something very much to be welcomed. Whether it is our


membership of the European Union that has done that, I think it is a


rather open question. I think what we have seen recently is a consumer


boom fed by rising asset values, which have in turn been fed by very


low interest rates. But what we really need is more investment and


more net trade, more sales and exports, than consumer led demand.


It is nice to see employment as high as it is, but investment for the


future is perhaps more important. You have been someone who has


campaigned for more investment in some of our great cities. Labour say


staying in the EU will actually help cities like Manchester, Birmingham,


Glasgow and Newcastle, and these are the people that run these cities.


Back to the same old issue, money is having from the European Union that


we paid in in the first place. The gross amount we pay to the European


Union is about ?19 billion a year. We get about eight billion pounds


back altogether, so the total debt payments, including payments to EU


budget and other things is about ?11 billion. There are big savings to be


made there, which could be used partly to help inner cities, partly


to help agriculture, industry. That is where one of the big dividends


would be from the European Union would come from. How would that


qualify into numeric terms, in terms of investment going into those


heartlands? Of the ?11 billion, which is a large sum of money, I


don't think anybody has divided that up exactly as to where it would go.


Somewhat have to get agriculture if we came out of the common


agricultural policy and moved to a cheaper food policy, which we had


before we joined the European Union. I think there are two of ?3 billion


involve there. There are other claims as well, promises made about


more funding for the National Health Service as well, another hundred


million pounds a week or so. There are some big sums of money involved.


But I think there would still be left over quite large sums for city


projects as well. Just briefly on immigration, Nigel Farage has said


he would like to see immigration come down to just 50,000 a year, I


think he said to you, Andrew in the recent debate. Last year, net


migration was about 330,000, with just over half coming from outside


the EU, not within. What would July to see happen to immigration numbers


within the EU, sorry, if we left the EU? Migration watch, who have a very


good track record on this, estimate the reduction we could reasonably


expect to see is something in the order of 120,000 people per year,


and that would bring the total net immigration down from its current


330,000 to a bit over 200,000. And you think that would be a healthy


number? I do think there is any easy solution to the immigration problem,


to be honest with you, especially if the British economy does really


well, or relatively well anyway, and the European economy has all the


trouble is that it has got with the Eurozone accentuated. And we have a


living wage of ?9 an hour, which is about four times the average wage in


remaining and Bulgaria. John Mills and Neil Cannock, thank


you. Andrea said it is too close to call, do you agree? Probably, the


only thing I agree with her about! -- Neil Kinnock. It seems anyone who


is anyone in the referendum campaign has been to Cornwall.


Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn and Alan Johnson have all been


Well, our Adam headed to the southwest to see for himself


what the Cornish make of the EU referendum.


It's stunning, and has an intriguing relationship with the EU,


so Cornwall's a great place for handsome broadcasters with a


Cornwall has its own way of looking at the world,


and it's quite cussive, and quite stroppy, and if you're


going to find that kind of British characteristic of not liking


being told what to do, you'll find it here.


Nowhere is that clearer than the fish market


Ask fishing folk about Europe, and there is a tidal wave of anger,


mostly about quotas and how foreign boats are allowed within six


Just rubbing salt in the wounds, taking our fish, billions


of pounds of value of fish are being landed elsewhere.


That money could be giving us jobs in our fishing industry and helping


to support our fishermen, and other workers in this


Most fishermen here are happy to fly a leave


Some are happy to defend the EU and say that other forces


Boris Johnson kicked off his Brexit campaign brandishing one of these,


saying that Cornwall could export more, freed from the supposed


Yet the Cornish Pasty Association is for Remain,


because pasties are protected under EU law.


It has left the owner here flummoxed.


There are pros and cons on each side, so I'm still undecided.


And pasties aren't really coming into that?


They won't be my final decision, they are part of it.


If Cornwall sends loads of these to the EU, then the EU sends loads


More than a ?1.5 billion euros of regional funding is being spent


in the county, some of it on the iconic Eden Project.


It is a charity, so is staying neutral.


Since we have joined the EU, we have had one new university,


one upgraded university, huge further education construction,


God knows how many hotels, good restaurants, galleries.


And the most important thing is that Cornwall has become a place


where people come to make a career, rather than to end one.


Leavers reckon a future British government would still funnel


Lionel Richie did two concerts in Cornwall this week.


Hardly anyone here would write a love song for the EU,


but will this part of the West Country vote to break up?


Joining us now is Matthew Goodwin, Professor of Politics


Cornwall gets lots of money from the European Union. Some will say we


sent it there in the first place, but it gets it there, 1.5 billion


euros of regional funding. But in few years for Remain seems muted.


Why do you think that is? I think Cornwall represents a lot of


other areas in the country, where support for Leave is stronger than


we might expect. As a country we are very divided, not just by class and


generation but by geography. Here you have coastal area, big fishing


industry, older demographic, really playing to some of the messages


Leave are running on. The same would have happened if you went to Great


Grimsby on the east coast. The big, young urban cities will turn out en


masse for Remain, but elsewhere I think Leave will have a good day.


Geography is important? Lin critical. We are incredibly divided.


We are looking at where campaigns focusing. Remain targeting those


young university towns, Oxford, Cambridge, Brighton, Bristol. Leave


is spending a lot of time on the east coast, cultivated last year at


the general election by the rise of the UK Independence party and


historically has always been the home of anti-London, anti-elite


revolts. Remain people say to me they have a puzzle. They believe


they have won the economic arguments, the public largely accept


leaving is a bigger risk than remaining. But they also say but we


haven't managed to get through to people our other message, which is


we will be worse off, you will be worse off if you leave. People


either don't think that don't seem to make it a major factor. Is that


true? I don't think Remain have run a very good campaign in my own view.


They have left the field of identity completely open, and that is


dominating this referendum. Look at the broadcast a few days ago, no


politicians but not a single mention of immigration, no mention of that


whatsoever. I think the view internally in the Remain camp is


let's get this focused on economic than we won't discuss our opponent's


view. Some really important ComRes data a few days ago, 62% of the


population were willing to take and economic knock if it meant having


control of immigration. We had a new poll this morning, from the leaves


campaign. One of these dramatic pictures came when the refugees who


had landed in Greece from Turkey were then... It is a Ukip poster,


not part of the Leave campaign. What it does show is one of these


pictures as the refugees were making their way up through the Balkans to


get up into Austria and then Germany. This is the Leave campaign


now down essentially to that, it is a very good political


strategy. If you are being provocative that is what you should


be doing, focusing on the number one issue focusing their voters. Ipsos


MORI took a group of voters and said if immigration status same how would


you vote, 81% said the same, Remain. Then they put an increased number in


front of them, by the time they got to the final scenario, that


immigration would increase 200%, nearly half of the Remain vote had


switched to unsure. That Remain vote is a lot shakier than people think.


I corrected myself, a Ukip poster, not the official vote leaves


campaign, because there has been some tension between them on how big


immigration should be. That has the Remain campaign suffered by not


having a credible reply on the immigration issue?


I think the right way to have run the campaign has hammered the issues


on which you are strong. The problem with changing the issues is you


emphasise that concern. I think the big question that will settle the


referendum is whether people feel they personally will lose out.


Economic league? Yes, and if they feel it is a long-term effect. The


question of whether that has got home is going to be what settles the


referendum. If Remain get Paul Dunne to the immigration territory, for


all that I understand your point, I think it would be a losing strategy.


-- get pulled into. Only a week to go. Mother is very excited! We won't


ask which way she's going to vote. Now, the Prime Minster has raised


the spectre of World War three breaking out in the wake of a win


for Leave next week. And in the last few days it's


looking more and more likely he will be right, at least


within the Conservative Party. We've had skirmishes


for the last few weeks... But yesterday saw a serious


escalation as Conservatives, both junior and senior,


put the Chancellor firmly This behaviour is utterly


irresponsible, it is going to damage the economy, because he scares


people, and that's not right. We were well prepared


for the Chancellor to say this. You have to ask why,


it is because he can't make a positive case


for the European Union, he can't make a positive


case for the reforms. They didn't get anything worth


having. So they are reduce to just trying


to scare us to stay in. The Chancellor, basically,


needs to calm down, and regrettably If we do vote to leave the EU,


will you be supporting No, because I think what we have


heard from the Remain campaign throughout this whole referendum


have been dire warnings. Let's assume for the next few


minutes with our discussion that it is a narrow Remain victory, which


would not... It is possibly forecast in the polls. What are the


consequences for the Prime Minister and Chancellor? I think the rout


inside the party has been very serious on it. It has been seriously


years but making it go public has made it even more serious. You


cannot imagine that won't have a big impact. It is difficult to tell how


Sirius it will be because you don't know how quickly people will move


onto other issues. -- how serious. With no way of testing whether the


Chancellor's figures were rubbish, feeling cheated in argument, and


there will be some rows about issues on the side like leaflets on things,


but it will be cheated an argument, and that will obviously have a


long-term effect on trust and relationships. May be the Prime


Minister's thinking, given he would hope to hold on in the wake of


Remain, that one way to bats take the sting out of it going forward


would be to remove Mr Osborne from the Treasury. Is that to make


Foreign Secretary, maybe bring in Michael Gove as Chancellor only


unity ticket? He will have to do some things to unite the


Conservative Party. But the question isn't specific it is just a question


of how big, how much trustee can gain back in general and how much he


can unite the party on other issues. -- how much trust he can gain back.


I do think there could be a reshuffle. But don't forget when you


talk about him losing his position of leader, he has the majority of


Conservative MPs for Remain. If you take out the payroll vote does he


have a majority of Conservative MPs? I don't know, I think you have done


the mathematics. I don't know if he'd does. I don't think that is


that relevant, what is relevant is you have the majority of


Conservative members of Parliament, you cannot remove the leader under


those circumstances. They will also have a strong feeling... Of course,


politics is chemistry not physics. There will be elements of anger and


he will have to try to respond to them as best he can. Naturally


Berisha forks, naturally involving potentially the Chancellor is one of


his options. Of course he has a majority, will probably still have


that after the referendum. Conservative backbenchers could make


things difficult for him. A small majority, he could have a zombie


government not able to do very much at all. How quickly do you think


there will be a referendum, sorry, a reshuffle? I wouldn't have thought


he would want to do it until the autumn. Immediately after the


referendum, if you have won, you want to make people feel, I have to


come back onside. You don't want to immediately tell them, you're not


going to be in the government and they have an incentive to rebel. You


want a little distance. I wouldn't anticipate it until after recess. At


the moment, David Cameron's game plan, assuming he stays as Prime


Minister until 2019, his private game plan, there will be a


leadership contest in the summer of 2019 six or seven months before the


next general election. If it is very narrow, will he be able to do that?


If it is very narrow and there is continued disruption on the Tory


benches, will he be able to stay until May, 2019? I would think so.


There are lots of conservatives who want to remain, probably the


majority of Conservative voters. Why make you think a majority? Probably.


We will have to see what the result is. That is one of the issues that


will set all the referendum. Not a majority of members, but the point


is anybody wants to be leader of the Conservative Party after David


Cameron has to have those people with them. Some of them anyway. They


also need to think about how they can act in relation to David


Cameron, it is not one-way. Let me ask you this, on the basis if Remain


wins, let's assume Leave Winscombe how quickly will David Cameron


resign? I think he would resign and have to quite quickly. You wouldn't


leave office immediately. It would be hard for him to do the


negotiations necessary to make leaving a success, in as far as it


can be. In these circumstances would Boris Johnson be pretty much


unstoppable as the next leader? We are all guessing, don't forget


they have doing the support of Remain members of Parliament. Among


the membership less so, and therefore I think Boris would be


very, very strong in those circumstances, yes. Do you think


there is any chance in the event of a Leave of chaos breaking out in the


ruling country, that there could be a general election before 2020? Is


that a possibility? The ruling party would have to agree to have a


general election. Because you need 66% of the Commons. They would be


possible. It is when the ruling party is strong you can see a case


of trying to exploit Jeremy Corbyn's weaknesses, but when the ruling in


chaos, you certainly wouldn't. What is the mood in Street at the moment?


You have to ask them. They have said we are in a funk. Other people will


be authorities on this, but my understanding is that they are


relatively calm about it. They think it is very tight, but they still


think they stand a very strong chance that they probably will win


the referendum, and they don't really see the point of a panic.


That is what I understand their view to be. You must be speaking to


different people from me. Still a week to go.


Over the last few weeks, we have been showcasing


the arguments for remaining in the EU and leaving it


On Monday, we looked at how Green supporters are approaching the vote


but we had a technical problem with Green MP Caroline Lucas's film


We've sorted out the gremlins now and as promised,


Some people will try to scare you into voting one way


We believe we are more effective when we work with our neighbours


to tackle the common challenges that we face -


challenges like the refugee crisis and climate change.


EU rules protect workers from bad bosses and stop companies


EU rules cut pollution in our cities and clean up our rivers


EU membership boosts jobs in every part of the country, too.


And we celebrate freedom of movement, because it gives us


the ability to live and work, study and retire across the whole


of the EU, and because we recognise the enormous contribution that EU


nationals make to Britain - to our NHS, to our economy,


The EU isn't perfect, we'd like it to be more


accountable and democratic, but we believe Britain is fairer,


safer and greener because of the EU, and we're fighting to stay


We saw off the gremlins and the Greens have their say.


With everyone so focussed on the referendum, there's been


a political vote which may well have passed under your radar.


I'm talking about the vote to decide the next Speaker


Now, this being the Lords, only peers of the realm could take part.


Now hold on to the edge of your seat - here's the result.


My Lords, I can now announce the result of the election


Details of the votes cast are being made available


The successful candidate was Lord Fowler.


What we've seen today is a parliamentary first.


This is the first time a man has been elected...


To the role of Lord Speaker, and I think nowadays there are few


positions in public life of which that can be said.


Of course, with the election over, the good news is that the bar


on offering hospitality now comes to an end,


and we can buy drinks for colleagues.


The bad news is that inadvertently today I seem to have


And the new Lord Speaker, Norman Fowler joins us


-- from the Houses of Parliament. Congratulations to you, something of


a landslide, about 69% of the vote I understand. Probably bigger than you


ever got as a MP, had a Jew pull it off? Actually I got quite high


percentages as an MP. We obviously -- how did you pull it off? It is


extremely important, because I am not just speaking for anyone group,


I am speaking for the whole house, and if the whole house puts their


position in that way, then that strengthens me. And we heard


Baroness Smith congratulating you on being the first man to hold this


position, so is your victory a triumph for gender equality? I think


it is just a bit of an accident that that has happened. We have had two


extremely able women who have been Lord Speaker, and I don't think


there was any prejudice, in fact, against there being a third woman.


In fact one of the candidates was there. So Fichardt had anything to


do with that. The great thing about the Lords is that, over the years,


in terms of women representation, it has gone up and up. Yes, as has the


number overall of course, if there is any room for any more! Now, what


about what you want to achieve in your role? The first thing I really


want to achieve is to try to get over to the public generally the


public interest that the House of Lords serves. I mean, we do hold the


government to account, but also what we do with that we checked on


legislation, which may have been, if you like, guillotined in the House


of Commons. I don't regard this job, or our role, as in conflict with the


Commons. I think we are complimentary to the Commons. Just


to get a better legislation on the statute book, and also we don't want


a situation where the government, the executive, can override


everything. Right, but do you think that recently the Lords has been a


bit too willing to challenge the Commons in this Parliament. If we


take some of the high-profile pieces of legislation that they have


successfully challenged, tax credit proposals, for example, that has led


the government to say there are constitutional issues, in other


words the Lords, that need to be dealt with? I think we should be a


little relaxed about that. If you take the tax credits issue, I know


the tax credit issue, I spoke in favour when I was a partisan


politician, in the old days, in favour of it. But I noticed that


immediately it went back to the Commons, it was dropped, and I think


it allowed the Commons to think again, and I think the government


probably came to the conclusion that they were going to have some


difficulty getting it through the Commons. So I think that was quite a


useful thing for the Lords to have done. There were a whole range of


other things, I can think of things from my own experience, when we have


sent things back to the Commons, which the Commons have accepted. So


of course there is going to be conflict from time to time, but we


are not in a state of perpetual conflict. No, just some of the time.


Norman Fowler, enjoy your new role. The house of lords, the second


biggest legislature in the world, after the Chinese politburo. And


obviously much more important! Boom boom. I should have told you the


Bank of England has kept interest rates the same, 0.5% again,


following yesterday's decision by the Fed, which was more up for grabs


in Washington. So a summer looking like another summer of low interest


rates. So have you made up mind how


to vote next Thursday? If you haven't, you're not alone -


up to 30% of people will change the way they vote or make


up their minds in this last week according to research by academics


at the London School of Economics. We sent our reporter Mark Lobel


to Kingston upon Thames in southwest London to see if people there had


made up their minds. We've come to Kingston market,


where Kingston's MPs are divided over whether Britain should


leave the EU. But with so much campaigning


on either side, and with just a week to go, have people made


up their minds? We've come to find out if people


are decided or undecided. I'm still looking at the news,


and getting some ideas. And just as we were getting going,


look which MEP walked our way. Do you think you've done a good


enough job of persuading people Actually, I haven't been trying


to persuade people I've actually been going


round giving talks, I've decided, but not


because of the people I think there are too many


politicians, there should be more ordinary people telling


you what it's going to do to them. I really don't want to lose our


identity, to lose our sovereignty, to lose control of our borders,


blah, blah, blah. But ultimately, it will be


a gut feeling. I've known all along how


I was going to vote, really. So the campaigns have


made no difference? So the campaigns haven't made any


difference to you? Thank you very much,


you can come again! We're halfway through the lunchtime


rush, and I think I can see You've decided that


you have decided? Is that because you just made


up your decision? I've decided that I've decided,


maybe because of you! # When you see how it's going to be,


you're making your mind up #. Cameron two or three months before


said we would leave if we didn't get the deal, and now


he says we have to stay in, and he's not got a better


deal out of this. I know it is important and it


matters, which is one of the reasons why it's so frustrating that I can't


seem to make up my mind. I feel like neither


of them are good options. # When you can see how it's


going to be, # You're Have you just made that


decision recently? I've taken a lot of information


and heard a lot of the debates, The view from Kingston market


is pretty clear - the campaigns only have a small proportion


of people left to persuade, so the biggest decision now


is what to have for lunch, a French crepe, an Italian pizza,


or a nice hot Cornish pasty...? Or a brandy and soda. Still a number


of don't knows. Do you really think this LS E research that 30% are yet


to make up their minds? I haven't seen their exact word is, but often


the people who say they are undecided have decided, they just


don't know it. When you begin to press people on their underlying


feelings, you discover that they do really know what they think, but


they just haven't finally said that is definitely my view explicitly,


but really you can work out what they're going to do. I think there


probably isn't 30% of people who are going to change their mind or who


have not decided at this point. We have to do our quiz. Oh gosh, I had


forgotten about that. There's just time before we go


to find out the answer to our quiz. The question was which group have


written a joint letter to The Times today urging a vote to Remain,


and warning of the dangers It could be anyone, but it is


celebrity chefs. Thanks to our guests,


especially our guest of the day The one o'clock news is starting


over on BBC One now. And I'll be on BBC One


for an extended This Week on air until the Tooting by-election result


is announced with Michael Portillo, Chuka Umunna, Sian Berry,


Diane James, James Cleverly, pub landlord Al Murrary,


and some newbie called ...


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