20/06/2016 Daily Politics


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Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.


Immigration takes centre stage in the EU referendum debate


again as David Cameron and Boris Johnson are forced


Parliament is recalled to allow MPs and peers to pay tribute to Labour


We'll hear from some of those who worked with her.


Could Britain look a bit like this if we vote to Leave on Thursday?


A Norwegian politician tells us why we have nothing fear


from life outside the EU. And as the UK embarks


upon a new chapter, we look back at Britain's ambivalent


All that in the next hour, and with us for the whole


of the programme today are the Labour MP and Leave


campaigner, Kate Hoey and the Remain Campaigner


First this afternoon, Turkey and its prospects of joining


the European Union have become the issue in the campaign again.


Last night, David Cameron faced a Question Time audience.


This is what he had to say on the question of whether he would


If this was going to happen in the next couple of years


I would not support it, but it's not going to.


This is about 30, 40 years' time and I'm not going to be


Prime Minister in 30 or 40 years' time.


As I say, people who have decided to vote Leave,


obviously it's a choice, it's a referendum, but to do it


on the basis of Turkey joining the EU, you'd be voting to leave


an organisation, to damage our economy, on the basis of something


Nick Herbert, David Cameron says it is a lie that Turkey is about to


join the EU so why is there, according to the British Embassy in


Ankara, a dedicated team working on projects to improve Turkey's


prospect of joining the EU? That is from the Amazon itself. I think it's


simply not true that they are imminently going to join the EU or


that it is likely to happen in the disabled future, perhaps not in my


little lifetime, perhaps not the decades. This has been going since


1977, Turkey has got to go through an enormous number of procedures


before it could qualify to join. Why didn't David Cameron rule it out?


Diplomatically, it makes sense to try to move Turkey more towards the


West and that has been agreed by all sides for very long time including


prominent leave campaigners who are now installing virtues of this like


Boris himself. Would that decide it? The problem is the Prime Minister


feels to rule it out implies the Simonet and that he was therefore


ruling out something that was imminently going to happen. It is


not. No cereus person thinks this will happen for decades. Of course,


every country has a veto and it is very likely that other countries


would veto Turkey's membership. This is a red herring, as we have seen


the red herring of the EU army, the amount we allegedly sent to


Brussels. Identity why the Leave campaign cannot campaign on the true


issues, rather than invent all of these scare stories, in -- imminent


prospect of things happening that are not going to people know it's


not true. But it is government policy as it stands. It has been


since the 80s, the policy of all governments to move Turkey to the


position, and that clearly, diplomatically make sense to try to


get them to embrace human rights and so on. It obviously makes sense.


It's not working. Yes, they are moving in the opposite direction so


they are moving further away from the prospect of joining the EU. Kate


Hoey, it's not going to happen, you can't sit and they Turkey is about


the joint EU. The point is, David Cameron goodwill it out because it


is EU policy for Teddy and four other countries, including Macedonia


and Albania, who are ahead of deadly. But daddy is the country


your campaign has put on posters. They have mentioned all the


countries, actually, I know I have. The veto thing, which Nick said is


our great weapon, we know what happens within the European Union,


vetoes, countries are literally bought off, they are bought off,


there are one or two countries who don't want another to join and then


it comes to the situation and they all, because they are part of a


club, they will eventually come round to what the commission has


decided. Is it imminent? Are they going to join in the next year? If


we vote to leave, on Thursday, we are not going to be leaving


imminently either come it will take awhile for the details to be worked


out. I think we are quite right to say this is an absolute possibility,


that it will happen in the near future. But an absolute possibility


it might happen in the future is not the same as saying that they are to


join? Do you agree that is scaremongering? I've not personally


got up and said Turkey will join tomorrow. They have been trying


since 1980s in. The way Europe works, the viewers need to


understand that it is a way of working which, once the commission


has decided something is going to happen, by hook or by crook, they


get it to happen. We will not, as one country out of 28, be able to


stop that happening. Of course we can, we can veto it. We will not


stop it happening. If at the time we decided the wrong thing, we have a


veto and all the other countries that have major concerns like France


will have a veto so the idea they will get browbeating is nonsense.


It's not going to happen and the campaign knows it. Going on to


business, there's been a line-up of businesses and the executive


chairman of the Premier League calling for people to vote Remain,


Richard screwed a more telling the BBC every Premier League club wants


Britain to remain in the EU. Sir Richard Branson has warned that


Brexit would be devastating for the long-term prosperity to the UK.


Nissan, Jaguar Land Rover, Toyota and BMW as well. That's quite a


persuasive list. And I'm sure tomorrow we will get another list of


people coming out. I'm sure the Prime Minister has something to pull


out of the hat. I thought you meant your site... Shouldn't businesses


have a say? Small businesses are not represented by people like Richard


Branson and Toyota. Small businesses are very keen to get rid of the


regulations and the directives that have really affected them. How many


small businesses? I don't... We know on Thursday, this idea in the media


that everyone always have to have exactly this and that. If you are


claiming small businesses, you sound like you are saying all small


businesses. I know that small businesses in Northern Ireland, in


the end, they were not able to take a position to say they wanted to


Remain because small businesses did not want it to happen. How crucial


is the campaign to get big businesses, because they are, the


ones I have met, to get big business leaders to say you must remain? It's


not just big business, it's big and small and the CBI survey of small


businesses than a substantial majority, 80% saying they wanted to


remain. It is not just those that read with Europe, either, numerous


that they are. It is also the concern about the wider stability of


the economy. It is quite wrong to say that there is some how a divide


between big and small business on this. There is widespread concern.


Some big businesses also want to leave. You have to be careful...


Don't talk over each other. We have to be get for not present a


distorted picture. Some may take a different view and they are entitled


to it but the vast majority want remain and it is not just businesses


but trade union leaders as well. You were mentioning some of the big


businesses. There are some very big businesses and entrepreneurial


businesses, dyes and sell more vacuum cleaners in Germany than any


of the other manufacturers of vacuum cleaners, there are some huge


companies that want... Some. In the end, these decisions are taken by


those running those businesses and it is in big business' interest to


stay in the EU because they stop the competition from the smaller


companies and businesses and the global corporations can drive down


the wages of working people. This is... Is that what is happening? Is


this the kind of campaign that feeds this idea that Remain is about


elitism, about big business? It just isn't true, Beattie wrote to


employees with its trade unions, having consulted about this, the


trade unions themselves are campaigning against... A majority of


them are, like the majority of businesses are concerned. Of the


smaller and medium-sized businesses in my constituency, a engineering


company growing and employing 300 people locally and they are


desperately concerned because they export to the EU. The idea this is


all about big this... It is about jobs and livelihoods. I know people


who are still tied in with all those regulations who support leaving. We


are going to leave it there for the moment because we've got the whole


programme to do this. The question for today is former


Conservative Party Chairman, Baroness Warsi announced her


defection this morning, but what has she apparently


defected from and to? Was it a) from the Conservative


Party to the Labour Party, b) from supporting Bradford Bulls


rugby league team to Leeds Rhinos, c) from Vote Leave to


the Remain Campaign, or d) from the Rebel Alliance


to the Dark Side in Star Wars? At the end of the show,


Nick and Kate will give Yes, you can save your mirth and


jokes for the end! Immigration is centre stage again


in the Referendum debate today, with campaigners on both sides


of the debate being forced to defend Yesterday, Jeremy Corbyn told


the BBC there could be no upper limit on the number of people coming


into the UK while freedom And last night, the Prime Minister


struggled to defend his record on immigration, describing


the Conservatives' manifesto pledge to keep annual net migration


"in the tens of thousands" as an "ambition" rather


than a commitment. Remain campaigner Gisela Stuart


called on David Cameron to abandon this manifesto pledge if he wins


the referendum on Thursday, saying he cannot continue


to promise to do something Overall net migration


currently stands at 333,000, Ukip, who are also campaigning


to leave the EU, have been widely criticised after unveiling a poster


showing a queue of migrants and refugees with the slogan


"Breaking Point". Nigel Farage defended the poster,


saying "It was the truth. It was the direct result


of what Angela Merkel But yesterday, Vote Leave's Boris


Johnson tried to calm the immigration row,


telling a rally in London he was pro-immigration


and pro-immigrants, and calling for an amnesty for illegal migrants


who have been in the UK Nick Herbert, is designer Stuart


writes to call on the Prime Minister to abandon that target of reducing


net migration to the tens of thousands if he wins the referendum?


Know, and the Prime Minister repeated what was in the manifesto,


the wording ambition was in the manifesto and it remains the


ambition. Once the euro zone economies get going again, then it


would be perfectly possible to achieve it. What we know has


happened is that only in relatively recent years, as our economy been


going so well after the recovery, we created 2.4 million jobs, the vast


majority for UK nationals and the Eurozone economies have been flat


and had real difficulties. People have been coming to work. The point


the Prime Minister keeps making is that the wrong way to deal with the


pressures of net migration, he's announced what I think is the right


way which is lots of benefit changes to make things fairer. The wrong way


would be to quit the single market, with damage to Aragon me, damage --


our economy, damage to growth in the economy and damage to living


standards and our ability to fund public services. That is not what


the British public want when they raise perfectly legitimate concerns


about migration levels. Why do you want to stick to a target of tens of


thousands in terms of net migration? You are nowhere near it, you've


never been near it and in fact, it's been going in one direction. You've


made a promise you cannot keep if Britain stays in the EU. Believe we


can, that's not true. You can still get down to the tens of thousands in


ten years? 20 years? The Prime Minister has not said when because


it's not fully within our control and partly depends on people leaving


the country, of course. As recently as 2008, migration from the EU was


within balance which shows you can do it, over half of the level of net


migration at the moment is fully within our control because it comes


from outside the EU. And which way is that going as well? As the Prime


Minister said, it is challenging to control that as well but remember,


Michael Gove... It's a worthless target because all you do is raise


expectations. I'm surprised that Gisela Stuart said we should abandon


it because Michael Gove said that would be the Leave campaign's


target, that level of net migration as well which presumably means he


was trying to reduce migration from outside the EU which is fully within


our control. Let's take Nick Herbert's point, we come out of the


EU and therefore, we are not bound by freedom of movement, net


migration could still be close to 200,000 per year. Is that what you


would expect? I think the point is that then, we as a country decide


Hammond people we want to come and we can be tougher or less tough,


depending on the kind of skills we need and what we want in terms of


numbers. -- can decide how many people. Nobody on the Leave side


that I have come across is against immigration but what we can't have


is 27 other countries being able to come into this country without


any... And people from here can go to all of those countries. Without


any idea of how many are coming and we discriminate against the rest of


the world. Would you like to see more people come from outside the


EU? Yes, I would I would like to see some of my Afro-Caribbean and Asian


constituents being able to bring people in if they have the right


skills and we need them. That is why the Australian type, I would call it


the British points system would be a really good system. It has not


worked particularly well until now. It has in Australia. But we have a


points system here. Nick knows because he was in the Home Office


that one time, you know, I have constituents who were due to be


deported, 12, 13, 14 years ago and have never been deported. There are


all these people in this country who have been here a very long time and


if we were to leave, I think the idea that those people who have been


here a very long time and you can't work and who are contributing


nothing should actually be able to stay here. So you would support the


amnesty? It's an interesting idea and it is certainly clear that we


are not against immigration but we want to control it into the country.


Jeremy Corbyn was being truthful yesterday when he said there cannot


be an upper limit of migration because we can't control it. That is


actually the truth. Freedom of movement from within the EU. That's


fundamental to being in a single market. So why don't you say that?


That is a fundamental freedom. What the Prime Minister has said is you


have a right to work and you do not have a right to claim and therefore


the changes that he announced our common-sense. They are that you have


to do be looking for work, you can't get benefit while you're looking for


work, if we don't go job within six months... You can get benefits after


three months. He changed it so you don't claim benefits. That's not


what David Cameron has said. Well common-sense measures which people


would say is common-sense. Kate made two very interesting claims that you


would like to see migration from outside EU which already means more


than half of our migration, go up. She wanted to increased. And the


second thing, she said nobody on the Leave side of anti-migration for the


new Tallaght to Nigel Farage. She is talking about the Vote Leave


campaign. I'm differentiating between migrants and asylum seekers


and refugees. That is where this whole debate has got confused.


Between genuine refugees and asylum seekers. Do you agree Nigel Farage


has confused that? That same poster appeared on the front pages of


newspapers. Did you support that newspaper? Breaking point? I think


it was a ridiculously drawn up poster because it did not explain


the core issue but it was on the front page of all these issues for


weeks and weeks. It is a shameful poster. Michael Gove said he


shuddered. It was... I would not have anything to do with that


poster. Good for you. What we cannot allow is people who feel very


strongly in their communities how immigration is change their lives


and their whole culture, that has to be stopped, because people are being


called racist. I have met so many Labour voters out there who feel


they have not been listened to, they are being told they are ignorant,


stupid, racist, and all they are trying to save is now what


respectable politicians, even like you are saying, or others, we have


to talk about immigration in a sensible way because this country


has to look at it. I completely agree. That's very different to


shameful posters like that. It is not just Ukip doing this. They have


been some absolutely shameful exploitation is by all the


campaigners. Can you give me some examples? Vote Leave, after the sex


attackers, same with coming to this country. Who said that? The Leave


Campaign. After the Orlando shootings, the most despicable ad


suggesting that might happen as a result of the EU membership here as


well. There has been shameful exploitation of people's fears and


that's not the right way to talk about it. Hang on, Nick Herbert, can


I talk to your game because you say Jeremy Corbyn was right, so would


you now say there can be no upper limit on net migration from the EU


while we remember? It is part of fundamental freedoms of the EU that


people come over and have the right to work. But it's not a right to


claim. And we do have full control over those non-EU migrants and we


control our borders. Not the EU migrants? So there could be no upper


limits? Just like Germany, France, Spain can't stop UK nationals, over


1 million, living and working in a EU. Let's remember that. That's part


of the single market. If we are outside the single market, there is


going to be economic damage and fewer jobs for people and lower


wages for people than they would have had otherwise. And less money


for public services. That is fundamentally important point. Free


trade areas, America, Mexico, and they don't have this. I mean, this


idea that somehow the only part of the world doing this right is these


28 countries in the EU, rest of the world manages to trade, free trade


deals, the political structure. We are used to being in the poetical


single market. I'm going to stop you there because we're going to do a


bit more on the economy in just a moment.


A man will appear in court today charged with the murder


Thomas Mair, who is 52 and from Birstall, will appear


at the Old Bailey this afternoon charged with murder,


grievous bodily harm and possession of a firearm with intent.


Meanwhile, here in Westminster, floral tributes have continued to be


laid at an inpromptu shrine on Parliament Square.


MPs and peers will gather this afternoon in Parliament


Let's talk to our correspondent Tom Bateman.


What is going to happen in the chamber today? Parliamentarians will


gather from 2:30pm this afternoon in the House of Commons. We understand


that the speaker will be the first, John Bercow, to pay his respects,


paid tribute to Jo Cox, followed by the leader of the Labour Party,


Jeremy Corbyn and then the Prime Minister, David Cameron. We expect a


busy chamber. MPs this morning have been returning to this recall, which


obviously Parliament hadn't been sitting because of the referendum


campaign, we've had MPs already paying tribute, some tweeting their


memories and their words for Jo Cox, even on their journey on the way


here. Speaking to one of her colleagues, over the weekend, we


expect many people will be wearing a white rose, which will be handed out


before the sitting itself, in tribute to their Yorkshire roots.


Behind you, even though the weather is pretty bad, we can see a wave of


flowers and tributes being laid as a public pass by. Has that been going


on all weekend? Absolutely, a number of vigils and memorial services


actually over the weekend, to Jo Cox and it's striking, reading some of


the messages here, the way in which she was regarded as somebody who


worked passionately for her constituents. And I think that is


really what we're going to hear a lot more of this afternoon. The way


she cared deeply about the seat she was born in, becoming BMP as the new


intake only last year. She seemed to work tirelessly for constituents and


it's notable that her family are saying that, just in the last few


hours, three of her charities, I ask people to donate to, ?800,000, and


one of those, charity that works in the constituency, helping people who


suffer from loneliness. I think we will hear a lot more about that this


afternoon about how she tried to help people in her constituency and


indeed for those causes around the world. Tom Bateman, on Parliament


Square, thank you very much. And we're joined now by the Labour


MP, Alison McGovern, and the Conservative MP and former


International Development Welcome to both of you. Alison, your


memories first of all Jo Cox? A wonderful smile, beautiful person,


deeply committed to her causes. You know, I knew her before she was


elected. Working on international development issues. And justice for


people in the poorest parts of the world, but when she came to the


House of Commons, she took it by storm and probably achieved much


more than people who'd served for even longer. She was absolutely


adept at holding the government to account. I think George Osborne was


right when he said she changed policy and I watched government


ministers worry about what Jo with next ask them because half the time


she seemed no more than them. Just an absolutely brained person. I'm


devastated. I can't believe it's true to be honest. People are taking


it in, I think since it happened on Thursday. You are from a different


party, Andrew Mitchell, that you wrote an article about Jo Cox


describing it as a five foot bundle of Yorkshire grit. How did you get


to know her? I first met it ten years ago when we were both marching


against the genocide in Darfur for in London. And then in North Darfur,


where she was a key operator in Oxfam. And David Cameron and I both


went there and she organised the visit. And I have known on and off


since then but when she into the House of Commons she came to see me


to say could we cooperate and she set up the friends of Syria, the


all-party group, and, between us, we co-chaired that group and she made a


tremendous impact. A really effective person at making the


government see the wider picture on Syria and really effective in the


chamber as Alison was saying in getting the message across. In terms


of the constituency, as well, because these are the issues that


you guys campaign on, to varying degrees, but in her constituency,


she also made a major impact. Yes, there's a special thing in politics


when you represent your hometown like Jo did. She was one of their


own. They sent it to Westminster to represent them but equally,


sometimes there are things people don't see, which Jo did, the hard


graft of working with charities and organisations to bring the community


together. I can remember talking to her just before and after she was


elected about the things she was wanting to do in the constituency,


change the way politics was done, make it about the real differences


we can do when we work together. Jo was an absolutely fine


representative, clearly a Yorkshire person through and through, and,


looking back at pictures of her, she threw herself into being a


constituency member of Parliament with real gusto and minor everybody


there is incredibly proud affair, as is everybody in the labour movement.


She was chair of the labour women's network, and there are people House


of Commons today, who owe their confidence and their political


network to Jo and the work she did, not just getting herself elected,


but making sure that all of us, as women together, works with each


other and helped each other be heard in politics. One of the things I


think many people forget is that what MPs do, they are up close and


personal with their constituents. She was at a surgery. There's not


much protection, there's a weekly grind, if you like, having to deal


with real problems, of real people, and that sometimes gets forgotten.


This is a terrible tragedy. But I think one of the things Jo would


want us to remember is not to damage this very accessible relationship


with MPs and their constituents. I think we need to see this as a


terrible, terrible event, but not one that should lead to any change


in the openness and accessibility which all of us enjoy with our


constituents. The police, quite rightly, are very good to us, give


us good advice, help us understand the risks and also to make sure our


staff are OK because other constituency offices are staffed by


Brilliant dedicated people as Jo's staff are, and the police are good.


We have to be listened to and we have to take appropriate measures


but we don't want to damage what is a really important part of our


democracy. To me, what Israeli devastating about this is that I


represent my hometown as Jo did and I personally would say there's never


any where I feel safer and that's what makes it so devastating. She


was also a mother to two young children, too, and obviously very


much part of her life, that's all so dreadful for the family, clearly,


apart from the politics. Yes, awful, absolutely horrific. It is beyond


imagining for most of us and I think what we need to do now is remember


what Jo stood for, hold dear to those values that she campaigned for


the changes she would've wanted in the world. Will you be speaking


afternoon, Andrew? I hope so, yes. She was a friend and colleague. How


much worse must be for those who mourn her as a daughter or a sister


or a wife, and those two lovely children who used to come and have


all capacity with her in the week. What about Labour MPs? You'd be


interviewed over the weekend and must've hit very hard, whether you


are from the same intake as Jo Cox or the one before. Young MPs, who


come into the house, who want to dedicate their lives to public


service. Yes, of course, we are all close but actually Jo was somebody


who had a network of friends and colleagues around the world and what


is truly amazing about her is the outpouring of people who, from


Nairobi, Washington, New York, who have all shared their memories of


working with her, because she had a view on the whole world and how


people could work together across many thousands of miles apart, so of


course, it's tough in Westminster today, but Jo was a person who had a


significant career beforehand and that was working with people all


around the world and I think of all of those people, some are many many


miles away from here, are grieving desperately for her. Right, and the


causes of the campaign she believed in, you spoke about a little


earlier, they will obviously continue and the money is being


raised for them at the moment? Yes, and I agree with what Allison


said, she had many friends and deep roots across the international


humanitarian and development family, really. A very moving response in


the Canadian parliament but all around the world and throughout the


UN system, she knew so many people. She was much loved and she had very


deep roots in that community, part of the reason why she will be so


desperately missed. Will you be wanting to speak this afternoon? I


will be there but I don't think I will be able to speak but I think


many of us will want to be there and at the service afterwards. Kate? I


won't be speaking but I will be there. I think the people who knew


her really well, and of course, she came in last year and I met her in a


number of times but Alison has put it absolutely right about how people


will be feeling today. I think it will be a very moving, it is only


going to last an hour, so people will be making short contributions,


I would imagine and I'm sure the speaker will do it beanie well. And


of course, we mention -- extremely well. And of course, we remember the


three other members who were murdered, Airey Neave, in the palace


itself, Ian Gow, I was in Parliament when he was murdered and Robert


Bradfield, another Northern Ireland MP blown up at his surgery. It does


not, I mean, fortunately it does not happen very often but something like


this, what is so sad is that she had only been an MP for a year and had a


huge future ahead of her, even if she didn't want that, she was going


to be someone who was going to be in a great position to really change


things. Thank you for joining us. It will be very sombre this afternoon,


I'm sure. Now, they were giving David Cameron


a typically hard time on BBC One last night,


as they did Michael Gove last week, so how does the BBC make sure


that its audiences on political Adam's been behind the scenes


on Question Time to find out. For decades, Question Time has


plonked a panel of political types in a different town every


Thursday night. In about half an hour's


time, the former leader of the Labour Party Ed Miliband


is going to be sitting in this seat but, hang on,


there's something missing. Hundreds of people apply but only


150 are chosen. We have a team doing


just audience selection. How did you vote


in the last election? And then we put together from that


a balance of everything. Political persuasion, age, gender,


and where they are on Brexit. And then, at that point,


you have an audience of 150 people that you know


is fairly well-balanced. What you don't know,


if you're in the chair, is when you call on somebody who's


got their hand up, which bit they represent because they're


not marked Ukip-Brexit, And you can try and guess


by people's appearance Before the show, David treats them


to a sort of free stand-up routine The case that is for change, which,


in this case, is the Brexit, is always more vociferous


in an audience like this because there are people who feel


passionately about sovereignty, And, on the whole, people who vote


Remain are less passionate about why So you have to check very carefully


to get both sides of the argument. They are all ready for an hour


of arguments, but what about one Yes, the 6,000 people at The Great


EU Debate at the SSE Arena in Wembley on 21st June,


just two days before A third of the tickets were given


to the official Leave Campaign to A third were given to the official


Remain Campaign so they could do The rest were made available


to the general public, who applied When they went there,


they had to say whether they were a Leave supporter


or a Remain supporter. Undecideds aren't allowed


because someone who's undecided at the start of the campaign may


have made their mind up And there are rules


for the audience. You're allowed to wear a T-shirt


with a slogan on it, but you can't bring a flag


or a banner. You're allowed to clap but you're


not allowed to heckle. Luckily for you, less so for me,


I won't be up here on the night. Saying hello to a very balanced


Wembley will be Mishal Husain, Emily Maitlis and,


of course, David Dimbleby. It's good for voters and families


and young people to see this thing being energised,


not just being taken for granted, so I think the idea of Wembley Arena


- I shan't be singing, coming on with a guitar -


I think it will be great. It looks like he is. It will be very


exciting. Now, not much happening this week


apart from the biggest political decision the UK's made


in a generation. In a moment, I'll be talking to two


of Fleet Street's finest to get their take on these


momentous few days. First, let's look at how


events will unfold. Tonight, Jeremy Corbyn will face


an audience of young voters as he puts the case


for Remain on Sky News. Tomorrow night at 8pm,


David Dimbleby will host The Great Debate on BBC One,


with Remain and Leave politicians arguing their case in front


of an audience of thousands On Wednesday, Republican


presidential candidate Donald Trump is expected to fly


into the UK to open a new golf Polls open at 7am on Thursday


for the referendum on Britain's By the time they close at 10pm,


David Dimbleby will already be on BBC One, as the country waits


for the arguably the most important On Friday, the results will start


to trickle in after midnight and by 6am, 90% of the results


will have been counted. So unless the result is extremely


close, the fate of the nation I'll be up all night with many


others. We're joined now by James Forsyth


of the Spectator and George Eaton No doubt you will be up through the


night, too. In his question Time appearance, David Cameron appeared


more fired up and passionate than perhaps arguably he had been in


previous media performances. Does this reflect the change of mood at


number ten? Reds what fired him up was understandably being competitive


Chamberlain. The appeasement. Up to that point, he was being forced to


be polite, being forced on to the back foot but in that moment and for


the last section of the programme, he was much more passionate. One of


the things that will this be the Remain campaign on last night is how


much the focus was on immigration. If, to be crude, when the subject is


the economy, Remain when and when it is immigration, Leave when, last


night was not great for Gabi Maine because it was all about


immigration, following Jeremy Corbyn saying on Andrew Marr's programme


saying there can be no upper limit to migration as long as Britain is


within the EU. People saying he was perhaps a mole for the other side by


talking about it. Perhaps the most -- help will think he couldn't have


said. We number -- we know the number of don't knows is diminishing


as we get closer to the referendum that there is no choice for either


campaigners, they just need to stick to their strong suit. They have both


got their core messages and it is what they call getting out the vote,


now, that is what it is about. What gives the Remain campaign worry is


the amount of labour campaigners who are voting Out and that is giving


Leave the same thing. Remain always thought they needed two thirds of


Labour voters to come and vote for in on the day in order to win and


they are still nervous about that. In terms of tone and rhetoric, since


the brutal murder of Jo Cox, there have been calls for a kinder, less


divisive kind of politics and rhetoric in this campaign. Will it


be heeded? Has it been? The challenge for both sides is to


accept there is goodwill on both sides of the debate and not to


question people's voters -- motives in why they are backing what they


are backing. One thing is that we have to remember is we can disagree


without being disagreeable. Who do using will win? Remain, I have


always thought they will win because the undecided, when they have been


asked which side they are leaning towards, they tend to say Gabi


Maine, and we have seen in the recent referendums on a and the


Scottish independence, the status quo tends to prevail but if Leave


wins, it will be because of anxiety in immigration -- over immigration


and because that campaign will have successfully delivered the message


that the risks of staying are greater than the risks of leaving.


Do you agree? Remain have to be favourites but one of the beans


about this referendum is, whatever the result it will seem entirely


obvious. If Remain when comfortable, we will say it is the economy and


risk aversion kicking in and if Leave win, we will say in the


anti-politics moment, you line up the entire political class and tell


them to vote one way, they will obviously vote the other way. We


will be wise after the event but you have to say Remain are the


favourites. Both your publications, on Thursday? Yes! Rotten timing for


you. What is interesting is that in some ways, David Cameron's ambition


was to settle the European question with this referendum but whatever


the result, it won't do that. If it is a narrow Remain as looks likely,


there will be inevitable demands for a second referendum in the future


and there's going to have to be further treaty change and


integration. If it is a Leave vote, we have left the EU but it does


integration. If it is a Leave vote, resolve the issue of the single


integration. If it is a Leave vote, market. What does Brexit look like?


You throw up a lot of questions whatever the result. One of the


things that has happened in the campaign is that leaving the EU used


to be a relatively French position and now it is very mainstream and it


is highly likely the next Prime Minister will be someone who wanted


to leave the EU and I don't think the question will be settled either.


It will be much closer than 75, we can say that with confidence. What


will happen to be Conservative Party? The next leader is likely to


be someone who supported Brexit and they will not miss a referendum


immediately but it will go on. If it is Brexit, they will find it easier


to unite. But there are lots of Tory MPs on the Leave side who want to


stop banging on about Europe and unite around what David Cameron will


call his one nation agenda, who want to talk about something else. What


is happening at the moment in terms of gathering signatures on the one


hand for a vote of no-confidence on the other hand to say that Cameron


must stay? As soon as the polls close on Thursday, a letter will be


raised side by Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and several of the


other cam and it Brexit board is making clear that David Cameron


should stay whatever the result which is an attempt to say there is


no realistic chance of removing him so don't bother trying to get


together 15 aims to cause a vote of no confidence because you won't win.


What do you say, Nick Herbert? The vast majority of the Parliamentary


party... They should be allowed to write a letter but the feeling among


members of Parliament is that we should accept the instruction of the


British people and the Prime Minister has made clear that he will


go on and implement that instruction and people do, as George says, want


to get back down to the core business of delivering a manifesto


commitment. We were elected with a majority and we promised a


referendum and we have delivered on that and we return to the day-to-day


business of restoring the economy and building our public services and


extending opportunity to people and there is a real mood amongst my


colleagues, the vast majority of them, that is what they want to do.


Not the bitterness that has been played out over this campaign? I


think it is overstated. The bitterness? The idea that there will


be enduring grievances is overstated. Remember that half, over


half of the Conservative Parliamentary party were elected


either this time all the time before and they don't carry the legacy of


battles past. Those were partly caused precisely because it was not


a referendum but Parliamentary discussion and was much more heated.


But we are all Democrats and we will accept the result of the referendum.


I think the vast majority will move on at that point. What about this


letter? You say you have not been shown it but you have heard about


it? I have heard about it because I read what James is writing avidly. I


have not been shown it but I agree with the sentiments, it is right


that irrespective of the result, the Prime Minister continues and he


himself said he will implement the instruction of the British people


but he has a clear view about what is in Britain's national interest.


If we vote to leave, and I have to say to my two Macromedia friends,


perhaps they don't get out of London enough because quite honestly, I


think you will find things are a bit different out there than in here and


I'm very confident Leave will win but I would also say that if they


do, it is absolutely crucial we get a negotiating team that is led by


somebody who cares passionately about getting a good deal for the


country. Who should lead it? I genuinely don't think David Cameron


will be the right person. We need a cross-party group of people and we


need someone like Peter Lilley, for example, who is the only person in


the Tory party who's ever actually conducted trade deals. There's a


group of people but it needs to be looked at carefully and we need to


take time. We don't want any article 50. That is a legal requirement. You


don't have to do it right away. Lets not worry about it until we know the


result. And macro. Now, how might the UK fare outside


the European Union? Well, one country that is in Europe,


but outside the European Union, is Norway and some Remain


campaigners argue that the country has suffered as a result


of its decision to stay out. Norway has had not one


but two referendums But it is a member of


the European Economic Area and therefore part of


the European single market. This means that it accepts free


movement of people and many EU For example, Norway


is not part of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy


or Common Fisheries Policy. Norway pays the EU around


?623 million a year - that's ?119 per head -


in order to be part of the single market and take part


in other EU projects. But just like the UK,


it does get some of that money back in the form of EU


funding for science, research and other


projects in Norway. Let's talk now to a former


Norwegian Minister and deputy leader of the Norwegian Centre


Party Anne Tinner-Rine. Thank you very much for joining us.


You said the Remain Campaign has employed the same scaremongering


tactics used by those wishing to join the EU in Norway's 1994


referendum. Can you give me some examples? I can give you some


examples. Firstly, let me state that I do not wish to have any opinion on


the British people, they should vote on Thursday, but it's interesting to


see some parallels between the debates we had in 1972 and 1994 and


they were especially free, parts of scaremongering, we saw from the yes


campaign. First the economic one. Both the Prime Minister and all the


economic elite and the media said that we would lose, at least 100,000


jobs, they said the biggest businesses would leave Norway, there


would be no more investment. They said the interest rates would


increase significantly. And in the continuation of that, they said that


this economic downturn would be a disaster for the Norwegian welfare


state, they said that there would be heavy welfare losses, we would lose


several benefits and pensions. The yes campaign even made some


calculation that every Norwegian family would lose some ?3000. That


sounds familiar. If there was a no. This was in 1994, 22 years ago. Now,


the last main argument that the yes campaign did in that campaign, was


to say that we would be totally isolated. And that, if we did not


join the EU, the EU would no longer want to trade with us, they would


not want to have any deals with us, we would have no negotiating power


with them. We would become a small isolated little island up in the


North that would be of no interest for the EU. Of course, it is all


rubbish. You've just heard their somebody in Norway using a


remarkable parallel, bearing in mind their campaign was such a long time


ago, but actually, if you take what happened to Norway, we would be fine


outside the EU, we would make trade deals, we won't have economic doom


and gloom. And actually Norway is doing pretty well when I last


looked. Firstly, in the interest of balance I hope you interview others


in Norway with a different view like the Norwegian prime on a stick, who


has said quite recently, Norway has lost influence as a result of being


outside the EU, and she said basically we've lost sovereignty.


And the question is, whether it would be right for Britain to have a


Norway style relationship. By the way, the Leave Campaign are now


saying they don't want bad, they want to be right outside the single


market but as the price of Norway's partial access to the market, they


have to accept free movement, twice as much migration per head of the


population as the UK does, they have to pay into the system. Remember how


we send money to the EU and we'll get it all back? Norway pays into


the system and I have to accept regulations, 75% of EU laws, they


have to accept, so the question is, will this be a good relationship for


us? What our businesses are saying is for jobs and so on, it will not


be as good, we won't have access to the single market and won't be


gaining any of these things promised by the Leave Campaign. It is to


disable you've interviewed Norwegian politicians who say Norway pays but


has no say, and you still have freedom of movement of people which


the Leave Campaign here thinks is damaging because they can't control


that part of net migration. And that is part of the single market, that


is the quid pro quo. In a way, leaving the EU, in that sense, would


not solve those issues for Britain. Well, firstly, let me say, yes, Don


the region Prime Minister and other ministers have said the agreement is


terrible for Norway -- Norwegian Prime Minister. That caused quite an


outrage in Norway because this... You must be aware this goes straight


into the national political debate in Norway as well and the Norwegian


Prime Minister has still not really for given the Norwegian public for


voting no in 1994. Let me say that the agreement is not an optimal


agreement. There are strong forces in Norwegian politics that would


like to renegotiate the agreement. Right now, the majority in the


Norwegian Parliament is for the agreement but that's a political


solution, compromise. Of course, if we had enough politicians willing to


go in and negotiate the agreement, free movement of people for


instance, it would be one of those things which would be debated. All


right, very quickly, isn't that the scenario that could face your


campaign if Britain does about to leave the EU, that over the next few


years, there is a trade deal negotiation, Britain stays part of


the single market and with that comes freedom of movement because


that's exactly what happened to Norway? I don't agree with you to be


in the single market to trade and do very well. I also think, what


happened in Norway shows very clearly what is happening here, it


is, whether you like it or not, the establishment at the top, the


leadership, ganging together against the people and it's very clear in


Norway, despite what their Prime Minister has said, the vast vast


majority of the public in Norway do not want to join the EU. We've never


had that chance. This is our first chance but also we are going to see


if we vote to leave, change throughout the rest of the EU


including Norway probably, getting a chance to have that discussion. We


will find out. Anne Tinner-Rine, thank you very much for joining us.


Now, we were out, blocked from joining,


This week, the British people will be given another opportunity


to decide whether we stay in and start another


chapter in the UK's relationship with the EU.


If we are to form the United States of Europe, we must begin now.


Despite Mr Macmillan's friendship with De Gaulle,


Britain has much to contribute to this process and as members


of the Community, we shall be better able to do so.


You see, Yes is now showing at 67% and the No vote at 33%.


The President of the Commission, Mr Delors, said at a press


conference the other day that he wanted the European Parliament to be


the democratic body of the Community, he wanted


the Commission to be the executive and he wanted the


Council of Ministers to be the Senate.


I have to say, Mr Speaker, that I find Winston Churchill's


perception a good deal more convincing and more encouraging


for the interests of our nation than the nightmare image sometimes


conjured up by my right honourable friend.


Britain's best interests are served by suspending our membership


Like me or loathe me, don't bind my hands when I am


negotiating on behalf of the British nation.


Three years ago, I committed to the British people that


I would renegotiate our position in the European Union and hold


And we're joined now by the political historian,


It's been a rocky relationship, hasn't it, Britain and the EU?


Europe has been a poisoned chalice for so many British prime ministers


from Harold Macmillan onwards. It destroyed his government, Ted Heath,


Margaret Thatcher's government, John Major's government, broke up the


Labour Party in the 1980s, and the reason it's been so difficult and it


has divided parties is because it raises fundamental questions about


widget identity, what sort of people are we? Are we really European or


not? Does that extend from the post where period, an island mentality,


not invaded in the same sense as those other countries who then drew


together at the beginning? Was it a stumbling block from the start?


Absolutely, our history is different to the continent for the continental


countries, Germany, France, Italy, they have to begin again after the


war, but our institutions remain undecided, going back to medieval


times, the monarchy even further. Our history is quite different and


that is summed up in the idea of the which of course Europe attacks


because Europe is superior to the sovereignty of Parliament. What


about, though, the economic criteria versus the political issues? I think


that has always been the core of our relationship with the EU, it was


seen at one point by both Labour and Tories as a good thing to be part of


but the political union was more difficult to swallow? Absolutely,


every British bonus from Harold Macmillan has wanted us to be in


Europe because they economic advantages there, they haven't on


the whole accepted what you might call the ideology of Europeanism,


but they want to be part of political unity, monetary financial


unity, but they thought there was definite pragmatic advantages in


being in Europe and they've had to balance that against the ideology of


Europe on the other side. In terms of Labour Party and Conservative


Party politics, we saw Margaret Thatcher, was she becoming


suspicious of a Europe that she thought was being run by social


Democrats, that somehow it wasn't the sort of Europe that she wanted


controlling Britain? As your film showed, she was a great euro


enthusiast in 1975, but became suspicious much later in the late


1980s when Jack the law took the TUC and telling them they could get


lists of social benefits from Europe they can get from her, and she said,


we haven't defeated socialism by the front door in Britain, to have it


brought in by the back door from Brussels. And that, I think, but are


strongly against the European Union. What do you say to that because the


other. It's true but then, of course, what's happened since then,


the EU now has gone back to being a supporter of the global


corporations, it is neoliberal, you saw what did terms of stopping


bargaining, the idea it a great institution there to protect


workers' rights, that's nonsense. The trade union say that. Yes, they


are trying to scare people that everywhere to leave, the rights


would disappear but all of those things are enshrined in law. The


trade union movement won these things, not the European Union. It's


been a real saw the link to the Conservative Party even today. I


think we have to accept it has to be settled by the British people


because normal party politics can't. It's right to put it to the people.


I wasn't able to vote in 1975, I was too young. Don't boast. I watched


the wonderful BBC documentary about it and there was Tony Benn saying if


we voted to stay in, it would be the end of democracy, and of these


claims about the attack on sovereignty have been overblown.


Actually, now, Britain has this data is where we are not in the Eurozone,


we keep our own currency, not committed to further political


integration. OK, we have to leave it there. Thank you for coming in on


the history there. There's just time before we go


to find out the answer to our quiz. The question was former


Conservative Party Chairman, Baroness Warsi announced her


defection this morning, but what has she apparently defected


from and to? A) From the Conservative Party


to the Labour Party? B) From supporting Bradford Bulls


rugby league team to Leeds Rhinos? I hope you know more


about that than me. C) From Vote Leave to the Remain


Campaign? Or D) From the Old Republic


to the Dark Side in Star Wars? Well, she was never part of it. The


answer, which is wrong, it is saying that she left the Vote Leave to join


Remain. I checked it this morning, she's never appeared on our


platforms, than anything. We have to leave it there. I think she's had a


telephone call from David Cameron. Particular do you two in these


closing days. Just three or four more sleeps


until we find out whether we're in or out of the EU,


depending on whether you plan to stay up all night


on Thursday for the results. The One O'Clock News is starting


over on BBC One now. I'll be here at noon


tomorrow with all the big


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