20/06/2016 Daily Politics

Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.

Immigration takes centre stage in the EU referendum debate

again as David Cameron and Boris Johnson are forced

Parliament is recalled to allow MPs and peers to pay tribute to Labour

We'll hear from some of those who worked with her.

Could Britain look a bit like this if we vote to Leave on Thursday?

A Norwegian politician tells us why we have nothing fear

from life outside the EU. And as the UK embarks

upon a new chapter, we look back at Britain's ambivalent

All that in the next hour, and with us for the whole

of the programme today are the Labour MP and Leave

campaigner, Kate Hoey and the Remain Campaigner

First this afternoon, Turkey and its prospects of joining

the European Union have become the issue in the campaign again.

Last night, David Cameron faced a Question Time audience.

This is what he had to say on the question of whether he would

If this was going to happen in the next couple of years

I would not support it, but it's not going to.

This is about 30, 40 years' time and I'm not going to be

Prime Minister in 30 or 40 years' time.

As I say, people who have decided to vote Leave,

obviously it's a choice, it's a referendum, but to do it

on the basis of Turkey joining the EU, you'd be voting to leave

an organisation, to damage our economy, on the basis of something

Nick Herbert, David Cameron says it is a lie that Turkey is about to

join the EU so why is there, according to the British Embassy in

Ankara, a dedicated team working on projects to improve Turkey's

prospect of joining the EU? That is from the Amazon itself. I think it's

simply not true that they are imminently going to join the EU or

that it is likely to happen in the disabled future, perhaps not in my

little lifetime, perhaps not the decades. This has been going since

1977, Turkey has got to go through an enormous number of procedures

before it could qualify to join. Why didn't David Cameron rule it out?

Diplomatically, it makes sense to try to move Turkey more towards the

West and that has been agreed by all sides for very long time including

prominent leave campaigners who are now installing virtues of this like

Boris himself. Would that decide it? The problem is the Prime Minister

feels to rule it out implies the Simonet and that he was therefore

ruling out something that was imminently going to happen. It is

not. No cereus person thinks this will happen for decades. Of course,

every country has a veto and it is very likely that other countries

would veto Turkey's membership. This is a red herring, as we have seen

the red herring of the EU army, the amount we allegedly sent to

Brussels. Identity why the Leave campaign cannot campaign on the true

issues, rather than invent all of these scare stories, in -- imminent

prospect of things happening that are not going to people know it's

not true. But it is government policy as it stands. It has been

since the 80s, the policy of all governments to move Turkey to the

position, and that clearly, diplomatically make sense to try to

get them to embrace human rights and so on. It obviously makes sense.

It's not working. Yes, they are moving in the opposite direction so

they are moving further away from the prospect of joining the EU. Kate

Hoey, it's not going to happen, you can't sit and they Turkey is about

the joint EU. The point is, David Cameron goodwill it out because it

is EU policy for Teddy and four other countries, including Macedonia

and Albania, who are ahead of deadly. But daddy is the country

your campaign has put on posters. They have mentioned all the

countries, actually, I know I have. The veto thing, which Nick said is

our great weapon, we know what happens within the European Union,

vetoes, countries are literally bought off, they are bought off,

there are one or two countries who don't want another to join and then

it comes to the situation and they all, because they are part of a

club, they will eventually come round to what the commission has

decided. Is it imminent? Are they going to join in the next year? If

we vote to leave, on Thursday, we are not going to be leaving

imminently either come it will take awhile for the details to be worked

out. I think we are quite right to say this is an absolute possibility,

that it will happen in the near future. But an absolute possibility

it might happen in the future is not the same as saying that they are to

join? Do you agree that is scaremongering? I've not personally

got up and said Turkey will join tomorrow. They have been trying

since 1980s in. The way Europe works, the viewers need to

understand that it is a way of working which, once the commission

has decided something is going to happen, by hook or by crook, they

get it to happen. We will not, as one country out of 28, be able to

stop that happening. Of course we can, we can veto it. We will not

stop it happening. If at the time we decided the wrong thing, we have a

veto and all the other countries that have major concerns like France

will have a veto so the idea they will get browbeating is nonsense.

It's not going to happen and the campaign knows it. Going on to

business, there's been a line-up of businesses and the executive

chairman of the Premier League calling for people to vote Remain,

Richard screwed a more telling the BBC every Premier League club wants

Britain to remain in the EU. Sir Richard Branson has warned that

Brexit would be devastating for the long-term prosperity to the UK.

Nissan, Jaguar Land Rover, Toyota and BMW as well. That's quite a

persuasive list. And I'm sure tomorrow we will get another list of

people coming out. I'm sure the Prime Minister has something to pull

out of the hat. I thought you meant your site... Shouldn't businesses

have a say? Small businesses are not represented by people like Richard

Branson and Toyota. Small businesses are very keen to get rid of the

regulations and the directives that have really affected them. How many

small businesses? I don't... We know on Thursday, this idea in the media

that everyone always have to have exactly this and that. If you are

claiming small businesses, you sound like you are saying all small

businesses. I know that small businesses in Northern Ireland, in

the end, they were not able to take a position to say they wanted to

Remain because small businesses did not want it to happen. How crucial

is the campaign to get big businesses, because they are, the

ones I have met, to get big business leaders to say you must remain? It's

not just big business, it's big and small and the CBI survey of small

businesses than a substantial majority, 80% saying they wanted to

remain. It is not just those that read with Europe, either, numerous

that they are. It is also the concern about the wider stability of

the economy. It is quite wrong to say that there is some how a divide

between big and small business on this. There is widespread concern.

Some big businesses also want to leave. You have to be careful...

Don't talk over each other. We have to be get for not present a

distorted picture. Some may take a different view and they are entitled

to it but the vast majority want remain and it is not just businesses

but trade union leaders as well. You were mentioning some of the big

businesses. There are some very big businesses and entrepreneurial

businesses, dyes and sell more vacuum cleaners in Germany than any

of the other manufacturers of vacuum cleaners, there are some huge

companies that want... Some. In the end, these decisions are taken by

those running those businesses and it is in big business' interest to

stay in the EU because they stop the competition from the smaller

companies and businesses and the global corporations can drive down

the wages of working people. This is... Is that what is happening? Is

this the kind of campaign that feeds this idea that Remain is about

elitism, about big business? It just isn't true, Beattie wrote to

employees with its trade unions, having consulted about this, the

trade unions themselves are campaigning against... A majority of

them are, like the majority of businesses are concerned. Of the

smaller and medium-sized businesses in my constituency, a engineering

company growing and employing 300 people locally and they are

desperately concerned because they export to the EU. The idea this is

all about big this... It is about jobs and livelihoods. I know people

who are still tied in with all those regulations who support leaving. We

are going to leave it there for the moment because we've got the whole

programme to do this. The question for today is former

Conservative Party Chairman, Baroness Warsi announced her

defection this morning, but what has she apparently

defected from and to? Was it a) from the Conservative

Party to the Labour Party, b) from supporting Bradford Bulls

rugby league team to Leeds Rhinos, c) from Vote Leave to

the Remain Campaign, or d) from the Rebel Alliance

to the Dark Side in Star Wars? At the end of the show,

Nick and Kate will give Yes, you can save your mirth and

jokes for the end! Immigration is centre stage again

in the Referendum debate today, with campaigners on both sides

of the debate being forced to defend Yesterday, Jeremy Corbyn told

the BBC there could be no upper limit on the number of people coming

into the UK while freedom And last night, the Prime Minister

struggled to defend his record on immigration, describing

the Conservatives' manifesto pledge to keep annual net migration

"in the tens of thousands" as an "ambition" rather

than a commitment. Remain campaigner Gisela Stuart

called on David Cameron to abandon this manifesto pledge if he wins

the referendum on Thursday, saying he cannot continue

to promise to do something Overall net migration

currently stands at 333,000, Ukip, who are also campaigning

to leave the EU, have been widely criticised after unveiling a poster

showing a queue of migrants and refugees with the slogan

"Breaking Point". Nigel Farage defended the poster,

saying "It was the truth. It was the direct result

of what Angela Merkel But yesterday, Vote Leave's Boris

Johnson tried to calm the immigration row,

telling a rally in London he was pro-immigration

and pro-immigrants, and calling for an amnesty for illegal migrants

who have been in the UK Nick Herbert, is designer Stuart

writes to call on the Prime Minister to abandon that target of reducing

net migration to the tens of thousands if he wins the referendum?

Know, and the Prime Minister repeated what was in the manifesto,

the wording ambition was in the manifesto and it remains the

ambition. Once the euro zone economies get going again, then it

would be perfectly possible to achieve it. What we know has

happened is that only in relatively recent years, as our economy been

going so well after the recovery, we created 2.4 million jobs, the vast

majority for UK nationals and the Eurozone economies have been flat

and had real difficulties. People have been coming to work. The point

the Prime Minister keeps making is that the wrong way to deal with the

pressures of net migration, he's announced what I think is the right

way which is lots of benefit changes to make things fairer. The wrong way

would be to quit the single market, with damage to Aragon me, damage --

our economy, damage to growth in the economy and damage to living

standards and our ability to fund public services. That is not what

the British public want when they raise perfectly legitimate concerns

about migration levels. Why do you want to stick to a target of tens of

thousands in terms of net migration? You are nowhere near it, you've

never been near it and in fact, it's been going in one direction. You've

made a promise you cannot keep if Britain stays in the EU. Believe we

can, that's not true. You can still get down to the tens of thousands in

ten years? 20 years? The Prime Minister has not said when because

it's not fully within our control and partly depends on people leaving

the country, of course. As recently as 2008, migration from the EU was

within balance which shows you can do it, over half of the level of net

migration at the moment is fully within our control because it comes

from outside the EU. And which way is that going as well? As the Prime

Minister said, it is challenging to control that as well but remember,

Michael Gove... It's a worthless target because all you do is raise

expectations. I'm surprised that Gisela Stuart said we should abandon

it because Michael Gove said that would be the Leave campaign's

target, that level of net migration as well which presumably means he

was trying to reduce migration from outside the EU which is fully within

our control. Let's take Nick Herbert's point, we come out of the

EU and therefore, we are not bound by freedom of movement, net

migration could still be close to 200,000 per year. Is that what you

would expect? I think the point is that then, we as a country decide

Hammond people we want to come and we can be tougher or less tough,

depending on the kind of skills we need and what we want in terms of

numbers. -- can decide how many people. Nobody on the Leave side

that I have come across is against immigration but what we can't have

is 27 other countries being able to come into this country without

any... And people from here can go to all of those countries. Without

any idea of how many are coming and we discriminate against the rest of

the world. Would you like to see more people come from outside the

EU? Yes, I would I would like to see some of my Afro-Caribbean and Asian

constituents being able to bring people in if they have the right

skills and we need them. That is why the Australian type, I would call it

the British points system would be a really good system. It has not

worked particularly well until now. It has in Australia. But we have a

points system here. Nick knows because he was in the Home Office

that one time, you know, I have constituents who were due to be

deported, 12, 13, 14 years ago and have never been deported. There are

all these people in this country who have been here a very long time and

if we were to leave, I think the idea that those people who have been

here a very long time and you can't work and who are contributing

nothing should actually be able to stay here. So you would support the

amnesty? It's an interesting idea and it is certainly clear that we

are not against immigration but we want to control it into the country.

Jeremy Corbyn was being truthful yesterday when he said there cannot

be an upper limit of migration because we can't control it. That is

actually the truth. Freedom of movement from within the EU. That's

fundamental to being in a single market. So why don't you say that?

That is a fundamental freedom. What the Prime Minister has said is you

have a right to work and you do not have a right to claim and therefore

the changes that he announced our common-sense. They are that you have

to do be looking for work, you can't get benefit while you're looking for

work, if we don't go job within six months... You can get benefits after

three months. He changed it so you don't claim benefits. That's not

what David Cameron has said. Well common-sense measures which people

would say is common-sense. Kate made two very interesting claims that you

would like to see migration from outside EU which already means more

than half of our migration, go up. She wanted to increased. And the

second thing, she said nobody on the Leave side of anti-migration for the

new Tallaght to Nigel Farage. She is talking about the Vote Leave

campaign. I'm differentiating between migrants and asylum seekers

and refugees. That is where this whole debate has got confused.

Between genuine refugees and asylum seekers. Do you agree Nigel Farage

has confused that? That same poster appeared on the front pages of

newspapers. Did you support that newspaper? Breaking point? I think

it was a ridiculously drawn up poster because it did not explain

the core issue but it was on the front page of all these issues for

weeks and weeks. It is a shameful poster. Michael Gove said he

shuddered. It was... I would not have anything to do with that

poster. Good for you. What we cannot allow is people who feel very

strongly in their communities how immigration is change their lives

and their whole culture, that has to be stopped, because people are being

called racist. I have met so many Labour voters out there who feel

they have not been listened to, they are being told they are ignorant,

stupid, racist, and all they are trying to save is now what

respectable politicians, even like you are saying, or others, we have

to talk about immigration in a sensible way because this country

has to look at it. I completely agree. That's very different to

shameful posters like that. It is not just Ukip doing this. They have

been some absolutely shameful exploitation is by all the

campaigners. Can you give me some examples? Vote Leave, after the sex

attackers, same with coming to this country. Who said that? The Leave

Campaign. After the Orlando shootings, the most despicable ad

suggesting that might happen as a result of the EU membership here as

well. There has been shameful exploitation of people's fears and

that's not the right way to talk about it. Hang on, Nick Herbert, can

I talk to your game because you say Jeremy Corbyn was right, so would

you now say there can be no upper limit on net migration from the EU

while we remember? It is part of fundamental freedoms of the EU that

people come over and have the right to work. But it's not a right to

claim. And we do have full control over those non-EU migrants and we

control our borders. Not the EU migrants? So there could be no upper

limits? Just like Germany, France, Spain can't stop UK nationals, over

1 million, living and working in a EU. Let's remember that. That's part

of the single market. If we are outside the single market, there is

going to be economic damage and fewer jobs for people and lower

wages for people than they would have had otherwise. And less money

for public services. That is fundamentally important point. Free

trade areas, America, Mexico, and they don't have this. I mean, this

idea that somehow the only part of the world doing this right is these

28 countries in the EU, rest of the world manages to trade, free trade

deals, the political structure. We are used to being in the poetical

single market. I'm going to stop you there because we're going to do a

bit more on the economy in just a moment.

A man will appear in court today charged with the murder

Thomas Mair, who is 52 and from Birstall, will appear

at the Old Bailey this afternoon charged with murder,

grievous bodily harm and possession of a firearm with intent.

Meanwhile, here in Westminster, floral tributes have continued to be

laid at an inpromptu shrine on Parliament Square.

MPs and peers will gather this afternoon in Parliament

Let's talk to our correspondent Tom Bateman.

What is going to happen in the chamber today? Parliamentarians will

gather from 2:30pm this afternoon in the House of Commons. We understand

that the speaker will be the first, John Bercow, to pay his respects,

paid tribute to Jo Cox, followed by the leader of the Labour Party,

Jeremy Corbyn and then the Prime Minister, David Cameron. We expect a

busy chamber. MPs this morning have been returning to this recall, which

obviously Parliament hadn't been sitting because of the referendum

campaign, we've had MPs already paying tribute, some tweeting their

memories and their words for Jo Cox, even on their journey on the way

here. Speaking to one of her colleagues, over the weekend, we

expect many people will be wearing a white rose, which will be handed out

before the sitting itself, in tribute to their Yorkshire roots.

Behind you, even though the weather is pretty bad, we can see a wave of

flowers and tributes being laid as a public pass by. Has that been going

on all weekend? Absolutely, a number of vigils and memorial services

actually over the weekend, to Jo Cox and it's striking, reading some of

the messages here, the way in which she was regarded as somebody who

worked passionately for her constituents. And I think that is

really what we're going to hear a lot more of this afternoon. The way

she cared deeply about the seat she was born in, becoming BMP as the new

intake only last year. She seemed to work tirelessly for constituents and

it's notable that her family are saying that, just in the last few

hours, three of her charities, I ask people to donate to, ?800,000, and

one of those, charity that works in the constituency, helping people who

suffer from loneliness. I think we will hear a lot more about that this

afternoon about how she tried to help people in her constituency and

indeed for those causes around the world. Tom Bateman, on Parliament

Square, thank you very much. And we're joined now by the Labour

MP, Alison McGovern, and the Conservative MP and former

International Development Welcome to both of you. Alison, your

memories first of all Jo Cox? A wonderful smile, beautiful person,

deeply committed to her causes. You know, I knew her before she was

elected. Working on international development issues. And justice for

people in the poorest parts of the world, but when she came to the

House of Commons, she took it by storm and probably achieved much

more than people who'd served for even longer. She was absolutely

adept at holding the government to account. I think George Osborne was

right when he said she changed policy and I watched government

ministers worry about what Jo with next ask them because half the time

she seemed no more than them. Just an absolutely brained person. I'm

devastated. I can't believe it's true to be honest. People are taking

it in, I think since it happened on Thursday. You are from a different

party, Andrew Mitchell, that you wrote an article about Jo Cox

describing it as a five foot bundle of Yorkshire grit. How did you get

to know her? I first met it ten years ago when we were both marching

against the genocide in Darfur for in London. And then in North Darfur,

where she was a key operator in Oxfam. And David Cameron and I both

went there and she organised the visit. And I have known on and off

since then but when she into the House of Commons she came to see me

to say could we cooperate and she set up the friends of Syria, the

all-party group, and, between us, we co-chaired that group and she made a

tremendous impact. A really effective person at making the

government see the wider picture on Syria and really effective in the

chamber as Alison was saying in getting the message across. In terms

of the constituency, as well, because these are the issues that

you guys campaign on, to varying degrees, but in her constituency,

she also made a major impact. Yes, there's a special thing in politics

when you represent your hometown like Jo did. She was one of their

own. They sent it to Westminster to represent them but equally,

sometimes there are things people don't see, which Jo did, the hard

graft of working with charities and organisations to bring the community

together. I can remember talking to her just before and after she was

elected about the things she was wanting to do in the constituency,

change the way politics was done, make it about the real differences

we can do when we work together. Jo was an absolutely fine

representative, clearly a Yorkshire person through and through, and,

looking back at pictures of her, she threw herself into being a

constituency member of Parliament with real gusto and minor everybody

there is incredibly proud affair, as is everybody in the labour movement.

She was chair of the labour women's network, and there are people House

of Commons today, who owe their confidence and their political

network to Jo and the work she did, not just getting herself elected,

but making sure that all of us, as women together, works with each

other and helped each other be heard in politics. One of the things I

think many people forget is that what MPs do, they are up close and

personal with their constituents. She was at a surgery. There's not

much protection, there's a weekly grind, if you like, having to deal

with real problems, of real people, and that sometimes gets forgotten.

This is a terrible tragedy. But I think one of the things Jo would

want us to remember is not to damage this very accessible relationship

with MPs and their constituents. I think we need to see this as a

terrible, terrible event, but not one that should lead to any change

in the openness and accessibility which all of us enjoy with our

constituents. The police, quite rightly, are very good to us, give

us good advice, help us understand the risks and also to make sure our

staff are OK because other constituency offices are staffed by

Brilliant dedicated people as Jo's staff are, and the police are good.

We have to be listened to and we have to take appropriate measures

but we don't want to damage what is a really important part of our

democracy. To me, what Israeli devastating about this is that I

represent my hometown as Jo did and I personally would say there's never

any where I feel safer and that's what makes it so devastating. She

was also a mother to two young children, too, and obviously very

much part of her life, that's all so dreadful for the family, clearly,

apart from the politics. Yes, awful, absolutely horrific. It is beyond

imagining for most of us and I think what we need to do now is remember

what Jo stood for, hold dear to those values that she campaigned for

the changes she would've wanted in the world. Will you be speaking

afternoon, Andrew? I hope so, yes. She was a friend and colleague. How

much worse must be for those who mourn her as a daughter or a sister

or a wife, and those two lovely children who used to come and have

all capacity with her in the week. What about Labour MPs? You'd be

interviewed over the weekend and must've hit very hard, whether you

are from the same intake as Jo Cox or the one before. Young MPs, who

come into the house, who want to dedicate their lives to public

service. Yes, of course, we are all close but actually Jo was somebody

who had a network of friends and colleagues around the world and what

is truly amazing about her is the outpouring of people who, from

Nairobi, Washington, New York, who have all shared their memories of

working with her, because she had a view on the whole world and how

people could work together across many thousands of miles apart, so of

course, it's tough in Westminster today, but Jo was a person who had a

significant career beforehand and that was working with people all

around the world and I think of all of those people, some are many many

miles away from here, are grieving desperately for her. Right, and the

causes of the campaign she believed in, you spoke about a little

earlier, they will obviously continue and the money is being

raised for them at the moment? Yes, and I agree with what Allison

said, she had many friends and deep roots across the international

humanitarian and development family, really. A very moving response in

the Canadian parliament but all around the world and throughout the

UN system, she knew so many people. She was much loved and she had very

deep roots in that community, part of the reason why she will be so

desperately missed. Will you be wanting to speak this afternoon? I

will be there but I don't think I will be able to speak but I think

many of us will want to be there and at the service afterwards. Kate? I

won't be speaking but I will be there. I think the people who knew

her really well, and of course, she came in last year and I met her in a

number of times but Alison has put it absolutely right about how people

will be feeling today. I think it will be a very moving, it is only

going to last an hour, so people will be making short contributions,

I would imagine and I'm sure the speaker will do it beanie well. And

of course, we mention -- extremely well. And of course, we remember the

three other members who were murdered, Airey Neave, in the palace

itself, Ian Gow, I was in Parliament when he was murdered and Robert

Bradfield, another Northern Ireland MP blown up at his surgery. It does

not, I mean, fortunately it does not happen very often but something like

this, what is so sad is that she had only been an MP for a year and had a

huge future ahead of her, even if she didn't want that, she was going

to be someone who was going to be in a great position to really change

things. Thank you for joining us. It will be very sombre this afternoon,

I'm sure. Now, they were giving David Cameron

a typically hard time on BBC One last night,

as they did Michael Gove last week, so how does the BBC make sure

that its audiences on political Adam's been behind the scenes

on Question Time to find out. For decades, Question Time has

plonked a panel of political types in a different town every

Thursday night. In about half an hour's

time, the former leader of the Labour Party Ed Miliband

is going to be sitting in this seat but, hang on,

there's something missing. Hundreds of people apply but only

150 are chosen. We have a team doing

just audience selection. How did you vote

in the last election? And then we put together from that

a balance of everything. Political persuasion, age, gender,

and where they are on Brexit. And then, at that point,

you have an audience of 150 people that you know

is fairly well-balanced. What you don't know,

if you're in the chair, is when you call on somebody who's

got their hand up, which bit they represent because they're

not marked Ukip-Brexit, And you can try and guess

by people's appearance Before the show, David treats them

to a sort of free stand-up routine The case that is for change, which,

in this case, is the Brexit, is always more vociferous

in an audience like this because there are people who feel

passionately about sovereignty, And, on the whole, people who vote

Remain are less passionate about why So you have to check very carefully

to get both sides of the argument. They are all ready for an hour

of arguments, but what about one Yes, the 6,000 people at The Great

EU Debate at the SSE Arena in Wembley on 21st June,

just two days before A third of the tickets were given

to the official Leave Campaign to A third were given to the official

Remain Campaign so they could do The rest were made available

to the general public, who applied When they went there,

they had to say whether they were a Leave supporter

or a Remain supporter. Undecideds aren't allowed

because someone who's undecided at the start of the campaign may

have made their mind up And there are rules

for the audience. You're allowed to wear a T-shirt

with a slogan on it, but you can't bring a flag

or a banner. You're allowed to clap but you're

not allowed to heckle. Luckily for you, less so for me,

I won't be up here on the night. Saying hello to a very balanced

Wembley will be Mishal Husain, Emily Maitlis and,

of course, David Dimbleby. It's good for voters and families

and young people to see this thing being energised,

not just being taken for granted, so I think the idea of Wembley Arena

- I shan't be singing, coming on with a guitar -

I think it will be great. It looks like he is. It will be very

exciting. Now, not much happening this week

apart from the biggest political decision the UK's made

in a generation. In a moment, I'll be talking to two

of Fleet Street's finest to get their take on these

momentous few days. First, let's look at how

events will unfold. Tonight, Jeremy Corbyn will face

an audience of young voters as he puts the case

for Remain on Sky News. Tomorrow night at 8pm,

David Dimbleby will host The Great Debate on BBC One,

with Remain and Leave politicians arguing their case in front

of an audience of thousands On Wednesday, Republican

presidential candidate Donald Trump is expected to fly

into the UK to open a new golf Polls open at 7am on Thursday

for the referendum on Britain's By the time they close at 10pm,

David Dimbleby will already be on BBC One, as the country waits

for the arguably the most important On Friday, the results will start

to trickle in after midnight and by 6am, 90% of the results

will have been counted. So unless the result is extremely

close, the fate of the nation I'll be up all night with many

others. We're joined now by James Forsyth

of the Spectator and George Eaton No doubt you will be up through the

night, too. In his question Time appearance, David Cameron appeared

more fired up and passionate than perhaps arguably he had been in

previous media performances. Does this reflect the change of mood at

number ten? Reds what fired him up was understandably being competitive

Chamberlain. The appeasement. Up to that point, he was being forced to

be polite, being forced on to the back foot but in that moment and for

the last section of the programme, he was much more passionate. One of

the things that will this be the Remain campaign on last night is how

much the focus was on immigration. If, to be crude, when the subject is

the economy, Remain when and when it is immigration, Leave when, last

night was not great for Gabi Maine because it was all about

immigration, following Jeremy Corbyn saying on Andrew Marr's programme

saying there can be no upper limit to migration as long as Britain is

within the EU. People saying he was perhaps a mole for the other side by

talking about it. Perhaps the most -- help will think he couldn't have

said. We number -- we know the number of don't knows is diminishing

as we get closer to the referendum that there is no choice for either

campaigners, they just need to stick to their strong suit. They have both

got their core messages and it is what they call getting out the vote,

now, that is what it is about. What gives the Remain campaign worry is

the amount of labour campaigners who are voting Out and that is giving

Leave the same thing. Remain always thought they needed two thirds of

Labour voters to come and vote for in on the day in order to win and

they are still nervous about that. In terms of tone and rhetoric, since

the brutal murder of Jo Cox, there have been calls for a kinder, less

divisive kind of politics and rhetoric in this campaign. Will it

be heeded? Has it been? The challenge for both sides is to

accept there is goodwill on both sides of the debate and not to

question people's voters -- motives in why they are backing what they

are backing. One thing is that we have to remember is we can disagree

without being disagreeable. Who do using will win? Remain, I have

always thought they will win because the undecided, when they have been

asked which side they are leaning towards, they tend to say Gabi

Maine, and we have seen in the recent referendums on a and the

Scottish independence, the status quo tends to prevail but if Leave

wins, it will be because of anxiety in immigration -- over immigration

and because that campaign will have successfully delivered the message

that the risks of staying are greater than the risks of leaving.

Do you agree? Remain have to be favourites but one of the beans

about this referendum is, whatever the result it will seem entirely

obvious. If Remain when comfortable, we will say it is the economy and

risk aversion kicking in and if Leave win, we will say in the

anti-politics moment, you line up the entire political class and tell

them to vote one way, they will obviously vote the other way. We

will be wise after the event but you have to say Remain are the

favourites. Both your publications, on Thursday? Yes! Rotten timing for

you. What is interesting is that in some ways, David Cameron's ambition

was to settle the European question with this referendum but whatever

the result, it won't do that. If it is a narrow Remain as looks likely,

there will be inevitable demands for a second referendum in the future

and there's going to have to be further treaty change and

integration. If it is a Leave vote, we have left the EU but it does

integration. If it is a Leave vote, resolve the issue of the single

integration. If it is a Leave vote, market. What does Brexit look like?

You throw up a lot of questions whatever the result. One of the

things that has happened in the campaign is that leaving the EU used

to be a relatively French position and now it is very mainstream and it

is highly likely the next Prime Minister will be someone who wanted

to leave the EU and I don't think the question will be settled either.

It will be much closer than 75, we can say that with confidence. What

will happen to be Conservative Party? The next leader is likely to

be someone who supported Brexit and they will not miss a referendum

immediately but it will go on. If it is Brexit, they will find it easier

to unite. But there are lots of Tory MPs on the Leave side who want to

stop banging on about Europe and unite around what David Cameron will

call his one nation agenda, who want to talk about something else. What

is happening at the moment in terms of gathering signatures on the one

hand for a vote of no-confidence on the other hand to say that Cameron

must stay? As soon as the polls close on Thursday, a letter will be

raised side by Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and several of the

other cam and it Brexit board is making clear that David Cameron

should stay whatever the result which is an attempt to say there is

no realistic chance of removing him so don't bother trying to get

together 15 aims to cause a vote of no confidence because you won't win.

What do you say, Nick Herbert? The vast majority of the Parliamentary

party... They should be allowed to write a letter but the feeling among

members of Parliament is that we should accept the instruction of the

British people and the Prime Minister has made clear that he will

go on and implement that instruction and people do, as George says, want

to get back down to the core business of delivering a manifesto

commitment. We were elected with a majority and we promised a

referendum and we have delivered on that and we return to the day-to-day

business of restoring the economy and building our public services and

extending opportunity to people and there is a real mood amongst my

colleagues, the vast majority of them, that is what they want to do.

Not the bitterness that has been played out over this campaign? I

think it is overstated. The bitterness? The idea that there will

be enduring grievances is overstated. Remember that half, over

half of the Conservative Parliamentary party were elected

either this time all the time before and they don't carry the legacy of

battles past. Those were partly caused precisely because it was not

a referendum but Parliamentary discussion and was much more heated.

But we are all Democrats and we will accept the result of the referendum.

I think the vast majority will move on at that point. What about this

letter? You say you have not been shown it but you have heard about

it? I have heard about it because I read what James is writing avidly. I

have not been shown it but I agree with the sentiments, it is right

that irrespective of the result, the Prime Minister continues and he

himself said he will implement the instruction of the British people

but he has a clear view about what is in Britain's national interest.

If we vote to leave, and I have to say to my two Macromedia friends,

perhaps they don't get out of London enough because quite honestly, I

think you will find things are a bit different out there than in here and

I'm very confident Leave will win but I would also say that if they

do, it is absolutely crucial we get a negotiating team that is led by

somebody who cares passionately about getting a good deal for the

country. Who should lead it? I genuinely don't think David Cameron

will be the right person. We need a cross-party group of people and we

need someone like Peter Lilley, for example, who is the only person in

the Tory party who's ever actually conducted trade deals. There's a

group of people but it needs to be looked at carefully and we need to

take time. We don't want any article 50. That is a legal requirement. You

don't have to do it right away. Lets not worry about it until we know the

result. And macro. Now, how might the UK fare outside

the European Union? Well, one country that is in Europe,

but outside the European Union, is Norway and some Remain

campaigners argue that the country has suffered as a result

of its decision to stay out. Norway has had not one

but two referendums But it is a member of

the European Economic Area and therefore part of

the European single market. This means that it accepts free

movement of people and many EU For example, Norway

is not part of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy

or Common Fisheries Policy. Norway pays the EU around

?623 million a year - that's ?119 per head -

in order to be part of the single market and take part

in other EU projects. But just like the UK,

it does get some of that money back in the form of EU

funding for science, research and other

projects in Norway. Let's talk now to a former

Norwegian Minister and deputy leader of the Norwegian Centre

Party Anne Tinner-Rine. Thank you very much for joining us.

You said the Remain Campaign has employed the same scaremongering

tactics used by those wishing to join the EU in Norway's 1994

referendum. Can you give me some examples? I can give you some

examples. Firstly, let me state that I do not wish to have any opinion on

the British people, they should vote on Thursday, but it's interesting to

see some parallels between the debates we had in 1972 and 1994 and

they were especially free, parts of scaremongering, we saw from the yes

campaign. First the economic one. Both the Prime Minister and all the

economic elite and the media said that we would lose, at least 100,000

jobs, they said the biggest businesses would leave Norway, there

would be no more investment. They said the interest rates would

increase significantly. And in the continuation of that, they said that

this economic downturn would be a disaster for the Norwegian welfare

state, they said that there would be heavy welfare losses, we would lose

several benefits and pensions. The yes campaign even made some

calculation that every Norwegian family would lose some ?3000. That

sounds familiar. If there was a no. This was in 1994, 22 years ago. Now,

the last main argument that the yes campaign did in that campaign, was

to say that we would be totally isolated. And that, if we did not

join the EU, the EU would no longer want to trade with us, they would

not want to have any deals with us, we would have no negotiating power

with them. We would become a small isolated little island up in the

North that would be of no interest for the EU. Of course, it is all

rubbish. You've just heard their somebody in Norway using a

remarkable parallel, bearing in mind their campaign was such a long time

ago, but actually, if you take what happened to Norway, we would be fine

outside the EU, we would make trade deals, we won't have economic doom

and gloom. And actually Norway is doing pretty well when I last

looked. Firstly, in the interest of balance I hope you interview others

in Norway with a different view like the Norwegian prime on a stick, who

has said quite recently, Norway has lost influence as a result of being

outside the EU, and she said basically we've lost sovereignty.

And the question is, whether it would be right for Britain to have a

Norway style relationship. By the way, the Leave Campaign are now

saying they don't want bad, they want to be right outside the single

market but as the price of Norway's partial access to the market, they

have to accept free movement, twice as much migration per head of the

population as the UK does, they have to pay into the system. Remember how

we send money to the EU and we'll get it all back? Norway pays into

the system and I have to accept regulations, 75% of EU laws, they

have to accept, so the question is, will this be a good relationship for

us? What our businesses are saying is for jobs and so on, it will not

be as good, we won't have access to the single market and won't be

gaining any of these things promised by the Leave Campaign. It is to

disable you've interviewed Norwegian politicians who say Norway pays but

has no say, and you still have freedom of movement of people which

the Leave Campaign here thinks is damaging because they can't control

that part of net migration. And that is part of the single market, that

is the quid pro quo. In a way, leaving the EU, in that sense, would

not solve those issues for Britain. Well, firstly, let me say, yes, Don

the region Prime Minister and other ministers have said the agreement is

terrible for Norway -- Norwegian Prime Minister. That caused quite an

outrage in Norway because this... You must be aware this goes straight

into the national political debate in Norway as well and the Norwegian

Prime Minister has still not really for given the Norwegian public for

voting no in 1994. Let me say that the agreement is not an optimal

agreement. There are strong forces in Norwegian politics that would

like to renegotiate the agreement. Right now, the majority in the

Norwegian Parliament is for the agreement but that's a political

solution, compromise. Of course, if we had enough politicians willing to

go in and negotiate the agreement, free movement of people for

instance, it would be one of those things which would be debated. All

right, very quickly, isn't that the scenario that could face your

campaign if Britain does about to leave the EU, that over the next few

years, there is a trade deal negotiation, Britain stays part of

the single market and with that comes freedom of movement because

that's exactly what happened to Norway? I don't agree with you to be

in the single market to trade and do very well. I also think, what

happened in Norway shows very clearly what is happening here, it

is, whether you like it or not, the establishment at the top, the

leadership, ganging together against the people and it's very clear in

Norway, despite what their Prime Minister has said, the vast vast

majority of the public in Norway do not want to join the EU. We've never

had that chance. This is our first chance but also we are going to see

if we vote to leave, change throughout the rest of the EU

including Norway probably, getting a chance to have that discussion. We

will find out. Anne Tinner-Rine, thank you very much for joining us.

Now, we were out, blocked from joining,

This week, the British people will be given another opportunity

to decide whether we stay in and start another

chapter in the UK's relationship with the EU.

If we are to form the United States of Europe, we must begin now.

Despite Mr Macmillan's friendship with De Gaulle,

Britain has much to contribute to this process and as members

of the Community, we shall be better able to do so.

You see, Yes is now showing at 67% and the No vote at 33%.

The President of the Commission, Mr Delors, said at a press

conference the other day that he wanted the European Parliament to be

the democratic body of the Community, he wanted

the Commission to be the executive and he wanted the

Council of Ministers to be the Senate.

I have to say, Mr Speaker, that I find Winston Churchill's

perception a good deal more convincing and more encouraging

for the interests of our nation than the nightmare image sometimes

conjured up by my right honourable friend.

Britain's best interests are served by suspending our membership

Like me or loathe me, don't bind my hands when I am

negotiating on behalf of the British nation.

Three years ago, I committed to the British people that

I would renegotiate our position in the European Union and hold

And we're joined now by the political historian,

It's been a rocky relationship, hasn't it, Britain and the EU?

Europe has been a poisoned chalice for so many British prime ministers

from Harold Macmillan onwards. It destroyed his government, Ted Heath,

Margaret Thatcher's government, John Major's government, broke up the

Labour Party in the 1980s, and the reason it's been so difficult and it

has divided parties is because it raises fundamental questions about

widget identity, what sort of people are we? Are we really European or

not? Does that extend from the post where period, an island mentality,

not invaded in the same sense as those other countries who then drew

together at the beginning? Was it a stumbling block from the start?

Absolutely, our history is different to the continent for the continental

countries, Germany, France, Italy, they have to begin again after the

war, but our institutions remain undecided, going back to medieval

times, the monarchy even further. Our history is quite different and

that is summed up in the idea of the which of course Europe attacks

because Europe is superior to the sovereignty of Parliament. What

about, though, the economic criteria versus the political issues? I think

that has always been the core of our relationship with the EU, it was

seen at one point by both Labour and Tories as a good thing to be part of

but the political union was more difficult to swallow? Absolutely,

every British bonus from Harold Macmillan has wanted us to be in

Europe because they economic advantages there, they haven't on

the whole accepted what you might call the ideology of Europeanism,

but they want to be part of political unity, monetary financial

unity, but they thought there was definite pragmatic advantages in

being in Europe and they've had to balance that against the ideology of

Europe on the other side. In terms of Labour Party and Conservative

Party politics, we saw Margaret Thatcher, was she becoming

suspicious of a Europe that she thought was being run by social

Democrats, that somehow it wasn't the sort of Europe that she wanted

controlling Britain? As your film showed, she was a great euro

enthusiast in 1975, but became suspicious much later in the late

1980s when Jack the law took the TUC and telling them they could get

lists of social benefits from Europe they can get from her, and she said,

we haven't defeated socialism by the front door in Britain, to have it

brought in by the back door from Brussels. And that, I think, but are

strongly against the European Union. What do you say to that because the

other. It's true but then, of course, what's happened since then,

the EU now has gone back to being a supporter of the global

corporations, it is neoliberal, you saw what did terms of stopping

bargaining, the idea it a great institution there to protect

workers' rights, that's nonsense. The trade union say that. Yes, they

are trying to scare people that everywhere to leave, the rights

would disappear but all of those things are enshrined in law. The

trade union movement won these things, not the European Union. It's

been a real saw the link to the Conservative Party even today. I

think we have to accept it has to be settled by the British people

because normal party politics can't. It's right to put it to the people.

I wasn't able to vote in 1975, I was too young. Don't boast. I watched

the wonderful BBC documentary about it and there was Tony Benn saying if

we voted to stay in, it would be the end of democracy, and of these

claims about the attack on sovereignty have been overblown.

Actually, now, Britain has this data is where we are not in the Eurozone,

we keep our own currency, not committed to further political

integration. OK, we have to leave it there. Thank you for coming in on

the history there. There's just time before we go

to find out the answer to our quiz. The question was former

Conservative Party Chairman, Baroness Warsi announced her

defection this morning, but what has she apparently defected

from and to? A) From the Conservative Party

to the Labour Party? B) From supporting Bradford Bulls

rugby league team to Leeds Rhinos? I hope you know more

about that than me. C) From Vote Leave to the Remain

Campaign? Or D) From the Old Republic

to the Dark Side in Star Wars? Well, she was never part of it. The

answer, which is wrong, it is saying that she left the Vote Leave to join

Remain. I checked it this morning, she's never appeared on our

platforms, than anything. We have to leave it there. I think she's had a

telephone call from David Cameron. Particular do you two in these

closing days. Just three or four more sleeps

until we find out whether we're in or out of the EU,

depending on whether you plan to stay up all night

on Thursday for the results. The One O'Clock News is starting

over on BBC One now. I'll be here at noon

tomorrow with all the big