05/07/2016 Daily Politics


05/07/2016

Jo Coburn is joined by Baroness Tessa Jowell to discuss the first round of voting in the Conservative leadership contest and the latest on calls for Jeremy Corbyn to resign.


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advise them to do that whether times are good or difficult. When taking

:00:00.:00:07.

out a mortgage, at some point over the life of that mortgage, times

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will be difficult. It might be at the start, five years in, ten or 15.

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You want to make sure as a family, as an individual, but

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Hello, and welcome to the Daily Politics.

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Voting gets underway in the Conservative leadership

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election as the five candidates vying to take over

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from David Cameron hope they'll get enough support to avoid crashing

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Labour's deputy leader Tom Watson is meeting the big unions

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in what is described as a last roll of the dice to persuade

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The Governor of the Bank Of England Mark Carney warns of challenging

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times ahead as he assesses the impact of the vote to leave

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And hundreds of schools across England are closed today

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as teachers strike over pay, workloads and school funding.

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And with us for the whole of the programme today is the former

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Labour Culture Secretary Tessa Jowell.

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But first, the Governor of the Bank Of England has warned

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that the UK faces a challenging economic outlook following

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Speaking in the last hour, Mark Carney said that some

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of the risks he warned about before the vote to leave

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The number of vulnerable households could increase

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with a tougher economic outlook and potential

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-- with a tougher economic outlook and potential tightening

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In particular, there is growing evidence of uncertainty

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about the referendum had delayed major economic decisions such

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as business investment, construction and housing market activity.

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Our business correspondent Jonty Bloom joins me now.

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What else did he have to say? In particular, he is worried about

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the amount of lending in the economy, that is why he has weakened

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the rules for the banks, they have more capital they can lend, about

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?150 billion will be released. A sign of how important he thinks it

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is the banks keep lending. The risks are quite significant,

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especially with commercial property. He says the amount of foreign

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investment in commercial property fell by half in the first three

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months. Yesterday, we saw Standard Life frees one of its property funds

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so no one could take their money out so there would be no run on people

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taking money out. People need to invest here to improve our trade

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deficit. How worried should we be about the

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risks Mark Carney has said the board about before the vote?

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Mark Carney is being serious and very worried. He says the Bank of

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England is taking a significant number of steps to ameliorate the

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worst effects. Today, we have had that extra

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borrowing. We are expecting there will be a cut in interest rates down

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to 0.25%, even lower. Also, the Bank of England has said

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there is the opportunity for more quantitative easing when they print

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money and release it. They have been doing that since the credit crunch

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and could be doing even more. In terms of other monetary policy,

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the currency rates and stock market, have they recovered since the

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initial dip? That was put to him, why are you

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worried when the stock market has recovered? He said the pound is

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still down 10%. Good when we need to export more. But if you look at

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house-builders, they are significantly lower. He is worried

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signs that the property market is slowing down, construction has

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halted in the private sector. Bank shares are down 20%, the domestic

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share market, the FTSE 250, that is markedly lower as well. All those

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things pointed to the market agreeing with Mark Carney we have

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serious problems. Is this the right action to take in

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what was predicted to be short-term instability?

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I am sure it is the right action to take. As Jonty said, this is

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realising the reality of all the warnings Mark Carney and other

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experts so derided by Michael Gove gave before the referendum.

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What is important is people at home grow to understand just what the

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scale of economic uncertainty and instability has been created by

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this. Mark Carney is trying to reassure

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people. He should be reassuring. The fact is

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his judgments about the economy are the reverse of what was being

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predicted six months ago when we were beginning to see growth and

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expecting to see an increase in interest rates, as evidence of the

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strength of the economy. Although we don't know what will

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happen in the next year. Of course we don't. This is a

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worrying time, mortgage lending going down, as Jonty said, the

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construction industry. If house prices came down in London

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that might not be bad. That might not be such a bad thing.

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Different in other parts of the country. London is a very special

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case. This is now the reality of the

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uncertainty created by Brexit rolling out.

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That is why there is an urgent need to create certainty about the terms

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of negotiation. We will talk about the terms of

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negotiation in a few minutes. The question for today

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is when Nigel Farage infamously insulted then European Council

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President Herman Van Rompuy in 2010, Was it a) never

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having a "proper job" b) having the "charisma

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of a damp rag" c) being akin to a

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"low-grade bank clerk" At the end of the show Tessa

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will give us the correct answer. Voting is under way

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in Westminster in the first round of the Conservative Party's

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leadership election with the five candidates vying

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for the votes of 330 Here's Giles with the low-down

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on the candidates and the contest. It has already had

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Shakespearean overtones. But the stage is now set for a bid

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not just to be Conservative Party leader but Prime Minister of a UK

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set on being outside the EU. One of the players so many assumed

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would take a starring if not the starring role did not even make

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it out of the wings. Ahead of the first vote

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of Conservative MPs on Tuesday, we don't have five guys,

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and none of them are called Mo. Indeed, it is a woman

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who seems to have the big mo, the big political momentum

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at the moment. Theresa May was always

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likely to run. She was Remain but kept a low

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profile during the Her pitch has been

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summed up as a serious She is, they say, the safe pair

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of hands on the tiller. Former special advisers are helping

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to run her campaign and she has backing

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from the Daily Mail newspaper. And in the Cabinet, Michael Fallon,

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Patrick McLaughlin, Also the Cabinet Office's Matt

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Hancock and significant I want someone who has performed

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and delivered at the highest level, That was Theresa May

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from the beginning. Days ago he was going to run

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Boris Johnson's campaign until he buried him in a publicly

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brutal act which Boris supporters Now, one of the leaders

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of the Leave campaign, the reluctant Gove seems to want

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the job like never before, Skills Minister Nick Boles, a Boris

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switcher, is running his campaign. His support includes

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John Whittingdale and Nicky Morgan. He had reluctantly decided this

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was the course of action But he has seen the situation,

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and has stepped up to deal with it. Stephen Crabb has long

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been spotted as future For some, that is

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still in the future. He is running on a ticket

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with Business Secretary Sajid Javid But both were Remain

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in the referendum and that is Apart from being in the Cabinet,

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they have no significant big support but are picking up

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new and younger MPs. -- I see him as one

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of the new generation, That is something incredibly

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important about the future We need someone who can reach

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out beyond Westminster. Andrea Leadsom is not

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a household name but she made a name beyond Westminster

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with her contribution A staunch Leave campaigner and with

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39 MPs on board to reflect that. Andrea stands head and shoulders,

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and brings a freshness. She is tough but with a positive

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outlook on politics. Then there is Liam Fox,

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a veteran of leadership campaigns A former Cabinet Minister keen

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to get back into He was on the other side

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of the debate of the referendum to me but he is the person

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to bring us together. He has experience in Government

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and is widely liked in the country, as a doctor with his background,

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the sort of person people can see One of these five will not just have

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to manage a bruised party Simultaneously focusing on how

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they separate the UK Let's get the latest

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from our assistant political editor Norman Smith who's outside

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the committee room in Parliament Have you had your ear against the

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door? I can see other journalists, what is going on?

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They are right down the end of the committee corridor this time.

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All these rooms are booked. I have chatted with Michael Gove who said

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he is still in there fighting but only just I suspect because you sent

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the damage done to him by his fratricide on Boris Johnson, that

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may have hampered his campaign. If you are looking for who will

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emerge to take on Theresa May, then increasingly it is beginning to look

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like Andrea Leadsom as the Brexit contender to take a run. She seems

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to be ahead in terms of the public nominations.

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That said, there has been a vigorous counter briefing by Team go

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suggesting she lacks experience, that her performs at the hustings

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last night was woeful. One Tory minister said to me, we are use to

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people not answering questions because we don't answer questions,

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and she wasn't answering questions. There is the view she is still

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fairly new, and do you really want her to be Prime Minister at such an

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uncertain time? That said, Michael Gove has an

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awfully long way to come back if he is to achieve second place. That is

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the real tussle. We will get an indication when we get the results

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announced this evening. Let us look at the other end of the

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stale, who is likely to be dropping out first?

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If you look at the names declared so far, it would look as if Liam Fox is

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potentially the most vulnerable.

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There is a view that last night he stressed a lot of big foreign policy

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areas and there is a view that maybe he is not pitching for the top job

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so much but he might be pitching the Foreign Secretary, defence, that

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might be his game. Stephen Crabb, there is a view it is a bit early

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for him his pitch as a true blue conservatives, there is mileage in

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that but maybe this contest is not his contest.

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He also came unstuck this morning on the Today programme when quizzed

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about the idea of borrowing ?100 billion to pump into infrastructure.

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That seems to chuck in the bin all pounds for deficit reduction. I am

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not sure that has been nailed down. He might struggle to make the final

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cut. Those two are probably most

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vulnerable. Thank you.

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We've been joined by the Conservative MP, Bill Cash.

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You have spent your career campaigning on the European Union.

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The UK has voted to leave but there are many different ways that Britain

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could actually x it the EU. What type of Brexit should Britain aim

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for? First of all, we need a proper trade

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agreement. You don't need to be a member of the EU to trade with the

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EU. We have heard from Australia, New Zealand, even John Kerry of

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America saying they would trade with us. We have a positive opportunity.

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We will do it from a position of strength, we are the fifth largest

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economy in the world. We have a trading record that goes back

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centuries. Bilateral agreements. What about

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access to the single market, should Britain be part of it or have access

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to it? You can't actually be in the single

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market governed by European laws. Once your appeal the 1972 act, you

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are out. he can work at bilateral relations

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with other states and that will happen. You are talking about

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individual bilateral agreements with all the 27 members? Andrea Ledsom

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has already been talking, she is a fantastic candidate, the people who

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have massive international experience of dealing with the EU

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and the bottom line is that we will be able to achieve it just as other

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countries have. Let me get direction of the two general. He says we will

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not be part of the single market, we might want to gain access by

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bilateral treaties, could mean we wouldn't have to sign up to the

:15:57.:15:59.

other conditions of being a member of the European Union, ie freedom of

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movement. Though and I overuse of established the degree of profound

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difference between us on this, but I respect his consistency -- bill and

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I. It would untold damage to our economy if we are excluded as a

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result of the Brexit terms to the single market. Because we are denied

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access to a trading market of 500 million people which has contributed

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40% of our trade. Of course, the issue which is linked to that is the

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clear conditionality from everything we have heard from the Council of

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ministers today, that freedom of movement is inextricably linked to

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access to the single market. Which is why none of these questions can

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be answered at the moment because we are in a no man's land. But we need

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to hear that from the candidates for the Conservative leadership? We do.

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We now need to open discussions with Europe about what the framework for

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Brexit terms would be. Theresa May has adjusted her priority would be

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to negotiate some sort of access for the UK to the single market, as you

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have clearly said, that would include freedom of movement, the two

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cannot be broken. Beyond that we don't quite know what's going to be

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in terms of negotiation, that's why we have to start discussions,

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without triggering Article 50. Not yet. I think when it should be

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triggered is a judgment to be made once there is a new Prime Minister,

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but the existing Prime Minister, who has a duty to maintain government,

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should start engaging with other European ministers about the terms.

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One should Britain trigger it? Will run a massive trade deficit every

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year with the other 27 member states, other ?62 billion a year in

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exports and imports. Why would we want to deny access to that massive

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market? We would be dealing with them through the trading

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arrangements that would be established. Listen. If I may.

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Basically, Germany on the other hand, has a trade surplus with the

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same 27 member states of 82 billion. This is not a single market, it's a

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German single operation. How long will it take to set up all those

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trade agreements? The average time it takes to set up, Peter Lilley has

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been doing a lot of work on this and it's not as long as people are

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making out, and maybe a couple of years or so but not as long as

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people think. The evidence from really experienced negotiators is it

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doesn't take as long as some are claiming. You are clear that the

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candidates who have thrown their hat into the ring have different views

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about how the negotiations should proceed. That is why I'm supporting

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Andrea Ledsom, she has the experience, she can deliver this.

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She has the most massive experience in the setting up, she

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understands... One should shape if she wins, drug Article 50? -- when

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should she, if she wins drug Article 50. It means reasonably soon. I will

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say this. It is going to start sooner or later, but actually right

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now, the situation is bedevilled by this proposal to go to the courts.

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What do you think about this proposal? Lets just say what it is.

:19:54.:20:01.

You are a strong defender of the sovereignty of Parliament. Why

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shouldn't the House of Commons have a vote on Brexit before the Prime

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Minister formally triggers article 50? Without going into detail, the

:20:09.:20:16.

argument are based on a complete misconception about the European

:20:17.:20:20.

Community. But what about the idea of the 70 of Parliament? Because the

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EU institutions, they put out a statement on June 29, all the member

:20:27.:20:29.

states and institutions have said it is the government to make the

:20:30.:20:33.

decision and by constitutional law it belongs to the prerogative, it's

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a matter for the government to bring it into effect. Except you did argue

:20:37.:20:42.

and others did argue about line by line on the Maastricht Treaty, for

:20:43.:20:46.

example? Why can't Parliament have a chance? I think there are two

:20:47.:20:54.

points. The constitutional laws would say broadly that democracy

:20:55.:20:58.

trumps interpretation of the consideration or position and there

:20:59.:21:02.

has been a referendum which concluded that we should leave the

:21:03.:21:07.

EU. That's the first point. I think the second point is that it will be

:21:08.:21:15.

important for Parliament to be in gauge in this, and I think that we

:21:16.:21:20.

have two be clear about the scale, if this is the case, of unforeseen

:21:21.:21:25.

detriment to the economy and well-being of people in the UK, as a

:21:26.:21:30.

result of leaving the EU. You think they should be a second referendum

:21:31.:21:34.

if there is a clear change in public mood? I don't think there should but

:21:35.:21:39.

there should be a critical issue and what I expect to be a general

:21:40.:21:43.

election which a new Prime Minister is elected. If you are doing it

:21:44.:21:49.

shouldn't be a separate act of Parliament before negotiations are

:21:50.:21:52.

actually triggered, then it's going to be decided, the Brexit

:21:53.:21:57.

negotiations will be decided by Tory grassroots members in the shires? We

:21:58.:22:02.

already have an act of Parliament, it's called the European Union

:22:03.:22:05.

referendum act, which depleted the basis on which we go forward. But we

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don't know what Brexit is going to look like. People will say that

:22:12.:22:14.

broadly speaking, of course there was that act of Parliament in place

:22:15.:22:20.

is it your view of Brexit or Theresa May's view? They are very different

:22:21.:22:25.

as you have admitted. I can only see that it is quite clear that Andrea

:22:26.:22:30.

Ledsom and those who agree with her and those like myself are quite

:22:31.:22:35.

clear about this. Article 50 will be invoked almost certainly in the

:22:36.:22:41.

reasonably near future but not until we have managed... That was for the

:22:42.:22:45.

referendum was about. That was to leave and we didn't know what shape

:22:46.:22:48.

it's going to be, now we're getting a flavour, shouldn't Parliament have

:22:49.:22:54.

a say? That was inherited the outcome of the referendum, the

:22:55.:22:57.

verdict has been given, leave means leave, entry is right and able to

:22:58.:23:02.

deal with the Mandarin problem which is reversing the civil service --

:23:03.:23:09.

Andrea is right. You need a strong character who truly understands the

:23:10.:23:11.

European issue to deal with all that. I think the Brexiteers are too

:23:12.:23:19.

willing to live with the uncertainty regardless of the cost to the

:23:20.:23:22.

country. This country has got to continue to have a functioning

:23:23.:23:28.

government will stop it well. The promised to should be engaged in

:23:29.:23:32.

early stages of discussion now in the remaining months. The Prime

:23:33.:23:39.

Minister should be. It doesn't look too good at the moment for your

:23:40.:23:45.

party. Can I come back to this issue, it is right for Britain's

:23:46.:23:50.

feature outside the EU to be shaped by 330 MPs and the ballots of

:23:51.:23:53.

grassroots members and then at the general election for the country to

:23:54.:23:57.

decide and vote on in terms of Brexit? We had presented the ocean

:23:58.:24:03.

when John Major took over. -- the same situation. I think there's a

:24:04.:24:10.

great deal of Armageddon pulp on the economy and the constitution. We had

:24:11.:24:16.

percentage ocean with Gordon Brown. He was fatally flawed. -- we had the

:24:17.:24:23.

same situation. I think he was floored for other reasons. Andrea

:24:24.:24:27.

Ledsom will be extremely good as a Prime Minister. The new Prime

:24:28.:24:33.

Minister should call a general election. What about the reports of

:24:34.:24:38.

postings that Andrea Ledsom, according to one Tory MP, said it

:24:39.:24:42.

was a car crash performance and went down as a cup of cold sick? I think

:24:43.:24:48.

that is extremely wrong and typical of the kind of disinformation that

:24:49.:24:53.

gets put out. Other people who weren't there who are commenting...

:24:54.:24:58.

This is an election people sometimes say things to diminish the chances

:24:59.:25:01.

of other people. I don't agree with that verdict, Andrea did a very good

:25:02.:25:06.

job, she was brilliant in the press conference earlier in the day and in

:25:07.:25:10.

other meetings, she is a first-class candidate and I say she should be

:25:11.:25:14.

the next Prime Minister. I think that clue! -- that clue!

:25:15.:25:20.

Jeremy Corbyn may still have more gaps in his Shadow front bench team

:25:21.:25:23.

than the England football team's defence but the Labour

:25:24.:25:25.

leader is still in post despite 80% of his MPs

:25:26.:25:27.

At last night's meeting of the parliamentary Labour Party,

:25:28.:25:31.

the deputy leader Tom Watson said he would meet union representatives

:25:32.:25:33.

today as a last role of the dice in the leadership crisis,

:25:34.:25:36.

presumably to ask them to help persuade Mr Corbyn to stand aside.

:25:37.:25:39.

If Mr Corbyn refuses, he faces a leadership challenge

:25:40.:25:41.

and the question will then be, does he need to secure scores

:25:42.:25:45.

of nominations to get back onto the ballot paper?

:25:46.:25:47.

Mark Lobel has been getting to grips with the Labour Party rule book.

:25:48.:25:57.

I want to reach out to all our members. Despite his large ditch

:25:58.:26:04.

appeal for party unity yesterday, at least one MP, Angela Eagle, says she

:26:05.:26:09.

will challenge his leadership if he doesn't resign. But many fear a

:26:10.:26:13.

contest will be highly acrimonious and may end up in the courts,

:26:14.:26:17.

because of differing interpretations of Labour Party rules about how a

:26:18.:26:20.

contender makes the ballot. The rules state where there is no

:26:21.:26:23.

vacancy, nominations may be sought...

:26:24.:26:38.

That means at least 51 MPs or MEPs. Jeremy Corbyn's ally, John

:26:39.:26:47.

McDonnell, insisted mystical than would automatically make the ballot.

:26:48.:26:52.

He is the leader of the Labour Party, you staying leader of the

:26:53.:26:55.

Labour Party and if there is a challenge, they will be a democratic

:26:56.:26:59.

election, Germany will stand, he is automatically on the ballot paper

:27:00.:27:02.

under our rules. -- Jeremy will stand.

:27:03.:27:08.

They say these words mean only challenges and not the incumbent

:27:09.:27:13.

need to get MPs to back their nomination, which is important

:27:14.:27:15.

because mystical than would struggle to get enough MPs to back him after

:27:16.:27:22.

the no-confidence vote last week. One senior insider told with they

:27:23.:27:25.

were divided for a different reason, to protect the incumbent from

:27:26.:27:28.

frivolous challenges to their leadership such as happened to

:27:29.:27:32.

Gordon Brown when he was Prime Minister. The insider insisted it

:27:33.:27:34.

was meant to exclude the incumbent from needing nominations of MPs. And

:27:35.:27:39.

those on the anti-Corbin Wing point to the words in the nomination,

:27:40.:27:45.

which they say underline the fact that any nominee would need the

:27:46.:27:49.

support of MPs to take part, a point underlined by Neil Kinnock this

:27:50.:27:54.

weekend. The cottage ocean provides, very sensibly, for a party in

:27:55.:27:59.

Parliament -- the constitution. And also provides that the leader of the

:28:00.:28:04.

party must have a substantial amount of backing from Labour members of

:28:05.:28:07.

Parliament. So who would resolve this dispute? This man, Ian McNicol.

:28:08.:28:15.

We have spoken to the former general secretary who told me he alone often

:28:16.:28:19.

made clear what the rules were in the past in similar circumstances.

:28:20.:28:26.

Reports suggest he has already received legal advice. What could

:28:27.:28:31.

that have been? We spoke to a lawyer who advises the Labour Party on

:28:32.:28:36.

issues like this. There is a clash of interpretation of the rules,

:28:37.:28:39.

they're not fully thought through and that has left an ambiguity which

:28:40.:28:46.

is why, as I understand it, the party and the newspapers are getting

:28:47.:28:51.

conflicting legal advice on this. Clear as mud then! If there are

:28:52.:28:54.

still doubts about the rules, then the ab initio to committee decides

:28:55.:29:02.

-- administrative committee. It is made of the trade unions, the

:29:03.:29:07.

socialist societies and black Asian and polarity representatives, the

:29:08.:29:13.

constituency Labour parties, evenly balanced and labour councillors who

:29:14.:29:17.

are not on the side of Jeremy Corbyn like the PLP members. Overall the

:29:18.:29:21.

estimate 60 members in favour and 17 against.

:29:22.:29:24.

To answer that, from the BBC's political research

:29:25.:29:28.

Hi, Mark, it is not as simple as that.

:29:29.:29:33.

It is not like a one member, one vote process where everyone puts

:29:34.:29:36.

Not even a big vote at the end of any NTC decision.

:29:37.:29:41.

It is a mixture of compromise and consensus.

:29:42.:29:45.

You need to win people over from different sections of the NEC.

:29:46.:30:00.

If they state that Jeremy Corbyn needs to find and emissions or not,

:30:01.:30:11.

that would probably be followed. If not then ultimately they could be a

:30:12.:30:16.

legal challenge by one side or the other and this might end up in the

:30:17.:30:22.

High Court. Now you can see what both sides want to avoid the need

:30:23.:30:23.

for an embarrassing showdown. And we've been joined from Glasgow

:30:24.:30:26.

by Rhea Wolfson who is standing for election to Labour's

:30:27.:30:31.

NEC this summer. At least four of the 40 MPs who

:30:32.:30:41.

backed Germany, McCutcheon Jeremy Corbyn have now changed their mind

:30:42.:30:46.

and think he should stand down, is in his position now not tenable?

:30:47.:30:50.

I think it is difficult and harmful to the party the way people are

:30:51.:30:58.

interacting. But I don't think it is untenable, as long as Jeremy sticks

:30:59.:31:02.

to the Prince was he stood for which is respect for the membership, and

:31:03.:31:08.

democracy. I hope the Parliamentary Labour Party also fall in ninth and

:31:09.:31:12.

recognise Jeremy is standing not just for himself but for the

:31:13.:31:16.

members. Isn't that a naive view. They won't

:31:17.:31:20.

fall in line. 80% are clear they want him to go.

:31:21.:31:25.

I think it is hopeful rather than naive.

:31:26.:31:31.

I have spent the last week travelling all over the country

:31:32.:31:35.

speaking to thousands of members as part of this campaign, and to talk

:31:36.:31:39.

about Jeremy Corbyn and the leadership. They are devastated.

:31:40.:31:45.

They hope as party activists they can continue advocating for the

:31:46.:31:51.

party. What evidence is there Jeremy Corbyn

:31:52.:31:55.

has lost the support of the Labour Party membership?

:31:56.:31:59.

Polling shows his support is collapsing.

:32:00.:32:04.

It doesn't show it is collapsing. The numbers who come up to me in the

:32:05.:32:08.

street and say, can't you get a new leader, the Labour Party is dying.

:32:09.:32:14.

In the last two meetings of the Parliamentary Labour Party, they

:32:15.:32:21.

were so passionate, so upset, so angry about Jeremy Corbyn's refusal

:32:22.:32:25.

to stand down. The rules as your film showed may be

:32:26.:32:33.

unclear and open to interpretation. What is not unclear if there is no

:32:34.:32:38.

confidence in Jeremy Corbyn in the Parliamentary Labour Party.

:32:39.:32:43.

He is now bound to maintain support of his MPs.

:32:44.:32:48.

He has lost that. Part of that is compounded by the degree of

:32:49.:32:53.

intimidation and abuse, the fear with which members, Labour MPs's

:32:54.:33:02.

staff coming to work every day, they fear the threat of intimidation and

:33:03.:33:04.

worse. Before that, members are equally

:33:05.:33:11.

upset, we hear, and devastated, by this challenge to Jeremy Corbyn who

:33:12.:33:18.

was democratically elected. Do you accept the party is split between

:33:19.:33:23.

the Parliamentary party and its membership?

:33:24.:33:27.

I don't. That presumes that Members of Parliament are not in touch with

:33:28.:33:32.

their members, engaging with their members every weekend. They were

:33:33.:33:36.

bringing back to the Parliamentary party last night and the week before

:33:37.:33:41.

the result of consultation with activists who overwhelmingly by

:33:42.:33:45.

their accounts one Jeremy Corbyn to do the decent thing for the Labour

:33:46.:33:48.

Party and stand down. What do you say about this anecdotal

:33:49.:33:54.

evidence and claims from MPs of intimidation and fear?

:33:55.:34:00.

If MPs are suffering this, it is not acceptable, it is not the mood I

:34:01.:34:04.

have seen at the meetings I have been to. It has been sadness and

:34:05.:34:09.

frustration but not intimidation or anger.

:34:10.:34:15.

Anecdotally the party is split. At the rallies we have been having,

:34:16.:34:21.

25,000 people have engaged, the membership has grown by over 60,000.

:34:22.:34:27.

Over half had joined to support Jeremy Corbyn. It is a fallacy to

:34:28.:34:33.

save his support is collapsing. Whilst I recognise there is a

:34:34.:34:38.

division, clearly the PLP are not listening to all their members.

:34:39.:34:43.

Angela Eagle, her local constituency passed a motion in support of Jeremy

:34:44.:34:47.

Corbyn. I feel frustrated and that is

:34:48.:34:53.

replicated across the country. What do you say? I talked to Angela,

:34:54.:35:01.

she faced homophobic abuse at that meeting. Talked to MPs around the

:35:02.:35:09.

country. Under the influence of momentum, activists and Members of

:35:10.:35:12.

Parliament and their staff are facing, day in, day out, harassment,

:35:13.:35:20.

and in some cases intimidation. And I famously remember, I was in

:35:21.:35:25.

the Labour Party fighting all this in the 1980s, that was militant

:35:26.:35:29.

then, it is momentum now, they are different RDs. But they are neither

:35:30.:35:36.

bodies respecting the wider electorate that monster see a Labour

:35:37.:35:41.

Government. That respect is slipping further and further. That is what

:35:42.:35:45.

was talked about last night at the Parliamentary Labour Party by Neil

:35:46.:35:48.

Kinnock. He knows about this from the 1980s,

:35:49.:35:53.

he reminded MPs that people in supermarkets told them Ed Miliband

:35:54.:35:59.

was not electable and asked to apply that supermarket test to Jeremy

:36:00.:36:06.

Corbyn, which he passed it? I think he would.

:36:07.:36:10.

You need to get out more. That is insulting that I am not on

:36:11.:36:17.

the doorstep. I am a party activist. I have been beside you, I have

:36:18.:36:22.

campaigned everywhere, in Scotland for the Scottish elections and

:36:23.:36:26.

working hard for the council elections. So do these momentum

:36:27.:36:31.

activists. They are not on the fringes of the party. Councillors

:36:32.:36:35.

and local representatives are involved. It is insulting to say

:36:36.:36:39.

otherwise. Do you agree if it carries on there

:36:40.:36:43.

will be a split because there is nothing to reconcile both sides of

:36:44.:36:49.

the party. Shouldn't it be a case that you and the MPs left and the

:36:50.:36:54.

Labour Party members form a new party? Or Tessa Jowell does the

:36:55.:36:58.

same. No, me and those of my politics are

:36:59.:37:03.

not leaving the Labour Party. We are here to make sure the Labour Party

:37:04.:37:08.

has a prospect of representing the people of this country in

:37:09.:37:09.

Government. What do you say?

:37:10.:37:14.

There should be no split in the party, it would be devastating for

:37:15.:37:19.

those who need a Labour Government. I am devastated we are not governing

:37:20.:37:24.

at the moment. It is really sad. I don't want a split.

:37:25.:37:29.

You wouldn't suggest there should be some declaration of Independence by

:37:30.:37:33.

MPs against Jeremy Corbyn. There would be more of you, you could set

:37:34.:37:37.

up in opposition. This reminds me of a great

:37:38.:37:44.

decoration of Ted Knight Way back in the early 1980s when he stood up at

:37:45.:37:48.

a public meeting and said there can be no compromise with the

:37:49.:37:52.

electorate. It is the people of this country who want a Labour Party they

:37:53.:37:56.

can believe in, who are being so badly let down by Jeremy Corbyn's

:37:57.:38:01.

refusal to do the decent thing in the interests of our party.

:38:02.:38:08.

Rhea Wolfson, we know there will be another plea for him to go.

:38:09.:38:14.

I hope the unions continue to support Jeremy Corbyn. And I will

:38:15.:38:19.

stand by him as he continues to represent the membership of the

:38:20.:38:20.

Labour Party. While much of Westminster is focused

:38:21.:38:22.

on the small matter of who should be the Prime Minister and Leader

:38:23.:38:25.

Of The Opposition, teachers across England are out

:38:26.:38:27.

on a one-day strike. The National Union Of Teachers

:38:28.:38:31.

called the strike over pay, Our education dditor

:38:32.:38:33.

Branwen Jeffreys joins us 3000 teachers have set off on a

:38:34.:38:45.

march through the city. Is there anything different to this strike

:38:46.:38:49.

and to previous one-day strikes by teachers?

:38:50.:38:53.

The focus of all the teachers who set off if you minutes ago from

:38:54.:38:58.

here, several hundreds of them, is mainly about education funding. They

:38:59.:39:03.

point to figures from the Independent Institute for fiscal in

:39:04.:39:05.

which show although the amount of money spent on schools is going up,

:39:06.:39:09.

the amount per pupil is going to fall over the next few years. They

:39:10.:39:14.

say that is leading to job losses with more expected in the future,

:39:15.:39:20.

and bigger class sizes. Just a quarter of the new team members

:39:21.:39:31.

actually voted in the ballot other amongst those who did the support

:39:32.:39:33.

was overwhelming. Why was it such a low turnout in

:39:34.:39:36.

terms of the ones who decided to take part in the ballot if there is

:39:37.:39:38.

such strength of feeling about educating -- education funding?

:39:39.:39:41.

It is an exceptionally low turnout, there is a dispute with the

:39:42.:39:48.

Government, and the NAS UWT. Some are waiting for the pay review body

:39:49.:39:54.

on what they should be paid, to come back.

:39:55.:39:56.

I understand that could be in the next couple of days, many teachers

:39:57.:40:00.

will be waiting to see what the offer is from the Government

:40:01.:40:03.

although we know pay restraint across the public sector remains in

:40:04.:40:06.

place. There is no doubt some of the

:40:07.:40:10.

concerns are more widely shared. Initial information from around the

:40:11.:40:14.

country is quite a lot of schools are open and this strike is quite

:40:15.:40:17.

patchy. Perhaps some teachers don't feel

:40:18.:40:21.

motivated enough at the moment to come out on strike on these issues.

:40:22.:40:26.

One other interesting thing this morning we had BMA junior doctors

:40:27.:40:31.

representatives who are themselves balloting on their own industrial

:40:32.:40:35.

action, here in support of the entity.

:40:36.:40:39.

There was a time when the BMA and a new would have been unlikely

:40:40.:40:40.

bedfellows. We've been joined by the acting

:40:41.:40:41.

general secretary of the National Union of Teachers,

:40:42.:40:44.

Kevin Courtney, and by Toby Young, who set up

:40:45.:40:46.

a Free School in west London. We also asked the Department

:40:47.:40:49.

for Education for an interview with a minister, but none

:40:50.:40:51.

was available. Kevin Courtney, are you playing

:40:52.:41:02.

politics with children's future as the Education Secretary has said?

:41:03.:41:07.

Not at all, we are reticulated a demand, we are on strike for our

:41:08.:41:11.

young people. We are hearing stories of schools were class sizes are

:41:12.:41:17.

going up to 35, where art, dance, drama teachers are being made

:41:18.:41:20.

redundant and not replaced, where the subjects on a longer offered in

:41:21.:41:26.

secondary schools. Where classroom assistants are being dismissed,

:41:27.:41:29.

where individual attention to children is going down. It is making

:41:30.:41:37.

life hard for our young people and their headteachers.

:41:38.:41:40.

Why only 24% of your membership have taken part?

:41:41.:41:43.

That is a good question, the 92% was a high majority.

:41:44.:41:50.

Of the 24%. That shows we are on the right issue. It is a big sample. A

:41:51.:41:55.

lot of people are supporting it. About 6000 people have joined the

:41:56.:42:00.

union since announcing the strike. It is a low turnout. We want to do

:42:01.:42:09.

electronic balloting. The fundamental question is teachers

:42:10.:42:14.

don't think we can win. It is the right issue but they are not

:42:15.:42:17.

convinced we can win. Let us talk about the funding, these

:42:18.:42:24.

warnings that spending per pupil, not overall spending, in schools in

:42:25.:42:29.

England is likely to fall by 8% in real terms.

:42:30.:42:32.

What do you say? Education is one of the department

:42:33.:42:37.

that has been ring-fenced. That is the overall envelope.

:42:38.:42:44.

Along with international and health. The IFS percolated spending on

:42:45.:42:48.

schools increased by 3% in real terms.

:42:49.:42:53.

I have asked you per pupil. I want you to answer the question

:42:54.:42:57.

about per-pupil funding. With your experience at the London free

:42:58.:43:01.

school, there is an increase in pupil numbers and there are rising

:43:02.:43:04.

costs. The envelope may be going up, but

:43:05.:43:09.

not keeping pace with the other costs.

:43:10.:43:11.

The rising costs are not to do with cuts in the school budget but mainly

:43:12.:43:19.

to do with increasing obligations on schools to contribute to NI

:43:20.:43:23.

cogitations and pensions. And the public sector pay freeze which seems

:43:24.:43:29.

reasonable given inflation is at zero. I accept there will be some

:43:30.:43:36.

real terms cuts. One thing I would say in response is that there is

:43:37.:43:41.

very little international evidence to link spending per pupil with

:43:42.:43:46.

pupil outcomes. The head of the programme for

:43:47.:43:50.

International student assessment said variation in spending per pupil

:43:51.:43:55.

only accounted for 20% in variation in pupil outcomes because it mainly

:43:56.:44:02.

means, the increase, almost double the expenditure on schools since

:44:03.:44:07.

1997, has meant smaller class sizes. There was no link between pupil

:44:08.:44:12.

outcomes and class sizes. If we don't have dance, drama, arts

:44:13.:44:20.

teachers, there will be no GCSEs in those subjects. There is a big link

:44:21.:44:25.

with exam grades. We are talking about spending per

:44:26.:44:28.

pupil. If you increase that significantly,

:44:29.:44:33.

do the outcomes improve? Look at the results in London where

:44:34.:44:38.

spending per pupil is higher. There is a pronounced link.

:44:39.:44:44.

Toby is a bright the charges on schools is pronounced, national

:44:45.:44:48.

insurance and pension conclusions. These school governing body at your

:44:49.:44:51.

school will have to find her every 20 teachers an extra teacher's

:44:52.:44:57.

salary to pay back to the Treasury when the Treasury is freezing the

:44:58.:45:02.

per-pupil money. That is the cause of teachers being sacked, arts

:45:03.:45:06.

teachers, the cause of last sizes going up. I have heard the argument

:45:07.:45:12.

class size does not matter, that is not correct. People who pay for

:45:13.:45:16.

private education are paying for smaller class sizes.

:45:17.:45:21.

They are being ripped off. When teacher shortage is so pronounced

:45:22.:45:25.

because of unnecessary workload, if you increase class sizes, you

:45:26.:45:30.

increase that workload. There is strong evidence from

:45:31.:45:34.

schools locally to me in London they are struggling to recruit in those

:45:35.:45:35.

subjects. That is reality. In my school is there a four

:45:36.:45:49.

squalls, not one, we haven't fired any music or drama teachers, they

:45:50.:45:55.

are both thriving as departments. I think my main bone of contention

:45:56.:45:58.

with you is not that there aren't good to be real term cuts... There

:45:59.:46:05.

is going to be a squeeze. My issue is, when has a one-day wildcat

:46:06.:46:09.

strike like this ever achieved anything? The NUT is already having

:46:10.:46:13.

constructive talks with Nicky Morgan, she is really working with

:46:14.:46:19.

you on reducing teacher workload, she has published three reports, we

:46:20.:46:22.

know that the strikes never achieve anything, why break off talks on its

:46:23.:46:27.

going reasonably well? It's not going reasonably well at all. It's

:46:28.:46:33.

important we are taking action now. The origination of this action

:46:34.:46:39.

cannot with the break-up of pay and academising across the country. We

:46:40.:46:42.

have asked Nicky Morgan for evidence that any other country does that,

:46:43.:46:48.

any other high performing education jurisdiction, none of them have,

:46:49.:46:52.

Finland, South Korea, Singapore. There is no evidence base. Can you

:46:53.:46:59.

achieve anything? I think we can. The reason for our turnout being

:47:00.:47:03.

reasonably low is because members think we can't but we are very

:47:04.:47:05.

messages of support from thousands of parents, from a group called Mr

:47:06.:47:13.

Our Schools, parents understand we are raising issues that matter to

:47:14.:47:14.

them. Tomorrow Sir John Chilcot

:47:15.:47:19.

will finally publish his report into the UK's involvement

:47:20.:47:21.

in the 2003 Iraq War. It's a significant moment -

:47:22.:47:23.

with many people expecting it to provide a definitive verdict

:47:24.:47:26.

on Tony Blair's role in taking the country to war

:47:27.:47:29.

against Saddam Hussain. In a moment we'll discuss

:47:30.:47:32.

the potential impact First though, here's

:47:33.:47:34.

a reminder of what Sir John What I was saying to President Bush

:47:35.:47:38.

it is very clear and simple. It is, you can count on us, we will

:47:39.:49:15.

be with you in tackling this, I was having to persuade him to take

:49:16.:49:18.

a view radically different from many of the people

:49:19.:49:22.

in his administration. So what I was saying

:49:23.:49:25.

to him is, I'm going to be I'm not going to push you down this

:49:26.:49:27.

path, and then back out when it gets too hot politically,

:49:28.:49:33.

because it is going to get hot I haven't seen the report, nobody

:49:34.:49:53.

has, we will know tomorrow. As Sir John Chilcot said, the purpose of

:49:54.:49:59.

the report was to understand the lessons of Iraq and I think by

:50:00.:50:07.

general consent, the controversy with hindsight about the invasion of

:50:08.:50:15.

Iraq has affected... It's almost paralysed our foreign policy since

:50:16.:50:20.

that time. So I hope that what Sir John Chilcot will do is to, with the

:50:21.:50:28.

informed benefit of hindsight, be very clear about what kind of

:50:29.:50:35.

foresight planning we fail to take proper account. I think that again,

:50:36.:50:42.

I was a member of the Cabinet that supported the innovation because of

:50:43.:50:51.

all the evidence, what is clear that we were not nearly sufficiently

:50:52.:50:55.

involved and engaged with planning the aftermath. This is clear and

:50:56.:51:04.

there is consensus... I think the charge that people like Jeremy

:51:05.:51:08.

Corbyn and John McDonnell will be looking at is whether Tony Blair had

:51:09.:51:12.

already decided and agreed with George Bush to go to war. Let me

:51:13.:51:17.

make a point about that. We have at an earlier discussion about why

:51:18.:51:21.

Jeremy Corbyn is not standing down and so forth. It is the purpose of

:51:22.:51:28.

Jeremy Corbyn's life's mission to be able to denounce Tony Blair as of

:51:29.:51:34.

the criminal tomorrow. That is, I believe, a large part of what he

:51:35.:51:40.

wants to hang on. I hope that Sir John Chilcot's report will give us

:51:41.:51:45.

very clear exposition of what happened, interpretation of what

:51:46.:51:49.

happens, but also will point to the future framing of decisions about

:51:50.:51:57.

foreign policy, about engagement with governments in supporting

:51:58.:52:06.

action against the radical regimes and so on -- tyrannical regimes. But

:52:07.:52:10.

is the future policy for intervention, which has so paralysed

:52:11.:52:14.

not just our government but governments around the world,

:52:15.:52:17.

sometimes to the great detriment of countries that might have benefited?

:52:18.:52:23.

Let's be very clear, Jeremy Corbyn wants to tell Sir Tony Blair that he

:52:24.:52:28.

is a war criminal. They will be those that oppose him in that. I can

:52:29.:52:34.

only say they have to have evidence from the report, don't believe that

:52:35.:52:37.

evidence will be there. Sir John Chilcot has already made clear that

:52:38.:52:44.

part of his remit is not to judge the legality. We will find out

:52:45.:52:47.

tomorrow. Now it's time to find out

:52:48.:52:48.

the answer to our quiz. When Nigel Farage infamously

:52:49.:52:51.

insulted the then European Council President Herman Van Rompuy in 2010,

:52:52.:52:54.

what did he NOT accuse him of? b) Having the "charisma

:52:55.:53:02.

of a damp rag". c) Being akin to a "low-grade bank

:53:03.:53:07.

clerk". I think he has usually those in

:53:08.:53:21.

relation to different people! You are right, but which one did he not

:53:22.:53:27.

attached to Herman Van Rompuy? Didn't he say that he had the

:53:28.:53:35.

charisma of a damp rag? He did... It was the first one, never have a

:53:36.:53:42.

proper job. All the others he did a tribute to Herman Van Rompuy.

:53:43.:53:43.

speech to the President Of The European Council and former

:53:44.:53:47.

Belgian Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy, Nigel Farage

:53:48.:53:49.

said Mr Van Rompuy had "the charisma of a damp rag",

:53:50.:53:52.

was akin to a "low-grade bank clerk", and came

:53:53.:53:54.

Last week, after the UK voted to leave the EU,

:53:55.:53:58.

Nigel Farage used a speech in the European Parliament

:53:59.:54:00.

"Virtually none of you have ever done a proper job in your lives."

:54:01.:54:04.

Let's take a look at that clip and some other highlights

:54:05.:54:07.

from Nigel Farage's time at the top of Ukip.

:54:08.:54:16.

It seems to me that you have given away ?7 million of British taxpayers

:54:17.:54:27.

money for nothing in return. Use it with our country flag, did not

:54:28.:54:31.

represent our country's interests. -- use it.

:54:32.:54:47.

They all look a little bit like goldfish. That have just been tipped

:54:48.:54:54.

out of the ball onto the floor. Desperately gasping for air and

:54:55.:54:59.

clinging on to the comfort blanket that is, this is a protest vote.

:55:00.:55:07.

This is number one! The world's greatest leader!

:55:08.:55:13.

I am a man of my work, don't Break my word so I shall be writing to the

:55:14.:55:22.

Ukip National executive in a few minutes, saying that I am standing

:55:23.:55:27.

down as leader of Ukip. Isn't it funny? When I came here 17 years ago

:55:28.:55:32.

and I said that I wanted to lead a campaign to get Britain to leave the

:55:33.:55:37.

European Union, you all laughed at me. Well I have to say, you're not

:55:38.:55:41.

laughing now, are you? So, with Nigel Farage standing

:55:42.:55:45.

down as Ukip leader, who will be the next to run

:55:46.:55:47.

the UK Independence Party We've been joined by the party's

:55:48.:55:50.

former deputy chairman Suzanne Evans, who is currently

:55:51.:55:54.

suspended from the party. Did you expect him to stand down?

:55:55.:56:04.

No, I was surprised but I understand why, the latest in his lifetime

:56:05.:56:08.

ambition to get us out of the European Union, now we have this

:56:09.:56:10.

momentous vote which will stand, let's be clear about that. So yes,

:56:11.:56:18.

out on a high, why not? Most political careers don't and like

:56:19.:56:22.

that. Will he keep out of the spotlight? I very much doubt it. I

:56:23.:56:28.

think whoever takes over as leader of Ukip will perhaps believe his

:56:29.:56:32.

input. Except he clashed with all the major party figures including

:56:33.:56:36.

yourself, Douglas Carswell, Patrick Fling and Neil Hamilton, will it be

:56:37.:56:42.

less divisive without him? I think it will. Nigel is a Marmite

:56:43.:56:47.

character, I think now for the leader, we need somebody who is more

:56:48.:56:54.

embracing, who shows it's not a one-man and order a single issue

:56:55.:56:57.

party, and also a party that attracts more women. By looking

:56:58.:57:01.

behind you, you see, neither did have an all-male team very often.

:57:02.:57:09.

What about you? You were suspended for the moment, what about you? I

:57:10.:57:15.

hope the party might overturn my suspension to allow me to stand. I

:57:16.:57:19.

always said if he stood down I would like to have a go at it and I think

:57:20.:57:24.

it's a shame I find myself in this position of being suspended,

:57:25.:57:27.

apparently for criticising a homophobic candidate, not something

:57:28.:57:32.

most people would think would be a disloyal thing to do in politics, so

:57:33.:57:38.

I hope I can be on the ballot paper. What is happening in the suspension?

:57:39.:57:44.

I did appeal, but it became clear early on that the appeal panel had

:57:45.:57:50.

already prejudge the outcome. When I was originally suspended I wasn't

:57:51.:57:53.

allowed to put any evidence to the panel to defend myself, I wasn't

:57:54.:57:57.

even there, it looked like it would be a repeat of the same. So I have

:57:58.:58:03.

actually withdrawn from that appeal. We shall see. I getting support from

:58:04.:58:06.

people who want me to be on the ballot paper, e-mails, phone calls,

:58:07.:58:11.

we shall see. I hope the party does the right thing. And if not EU, who

:58:12.:58:18.

would you back? I am not going to say, I want to see who puts

:58:19.:58:22.

themselves forward and what policies, I don't want someone to

:58:23.:58:27.

take over Ukip and taken to the far right, we need a more common sense,

:58:28.:58:32.

centre ground party who can afford to conservative voters in the south

:58:33.:58:39.

and Labour voters in the North. There is your pitch for the

:58:40.:58:40.

leadership! You heard it here first! Thanks to Tessa Jowell

:58:41.:58:42.

and all my guests. The One O'Clock News is starting

:58:43.:58:45.

over on BBC One now. I'll be back at 11.30 tomorrow

:58:46.:58:52.

with Andrew for live coverage Dip into a summer of

:58:53.:58:58.

amazing live music,

:58:59.:59:07.

Jo Coburn is joined by Baroness Tessa Jowell to discuss the first round of voting in the Conservative leadership contest and the latest on calls for Jeremy Corbyn to resign. Plus a preview of the Chilcot Report into the Iraq war.


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