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advise them to do that whether times are good or difficult. When taking
out a mortgage, at some point over the life of that mortgage, times
will be difficult. It might be at the start, five years in, ten or 15.
You want to make sure as a family, as an individual, but
Hello, and welcome to the Daily Politics.
Voting gets underway in the Conservative leadership
election as the five candidates vying to take over
from David Cameron hope they'll get enough support to avoid crashing
Labour's deputy leader Tom Watson is meeting the big unions
in what is described as a last roll of the dice to persuade
The Governor of the Bank Of England Mark Carney warns of challenging
times ahead as he assesses the impact of the vote to leave
And hundreds of schools across England are closed today
as teachers strike over pay, workloads and school funding.
And with us for the whole of the programme today is the former
Labour Culture Secretary Tessa Jowell.
But first, the Governor of the Bank Of England has warned
that the UK faces a challenging economic outlook following
Speaking in the last hour, Mark Carney said that some
of the risks he warned about before the vote to leave
The number of vulnerable households could increase
with a tougher economic outlook and potential
-- with a tougher economic outlook and potential tightening
In particular, there is growing evidence of uncertainty
about the referendum had delayed major economic decisions such
as business investment, construction and housing market activity.
Our business correspondent Jonty Bloom joins me now.
What else did he have to say? In particular, he is worried about
the amount of lending in the economy, that is why he has weakened
the rules for the banks, they have more capital they can lend, about
?150 billion will be released. A sign of how important he thinks it
is the banks keep lending. The risks are quite significant,
especially with commercial property. He says the amount of foreign
investment in commercial property fell by half in the first three
months. Yesterday, we saw Standard Life frees one of its property funds
so no one could take their money out so there would be no run on people
taking money out. People need to invest here to improve our trade
deficit. How worried should we be about the
risks Mark Carney has said the board about before the vote?
Mark Carney is being serious and very worried. He says the Bank of
England is taking a significant number of steps to ameliorate the
worst effects. Today, we have had that extra
borrowing. We are expecting there will be a cut in interest rates down
to 0.25%, even lower. Also, the Bank of England has said
there is the opportunity for more quantitative easing when they print
money and release it. They have been doing that since the credit crunch
and could be doing even more. In terms of other monetary policy,
the currency rates and stock market, have they recovered since the
initial dip? That was put to him, why are you
worried when the stock market has recovered? He said the pound is
still down 10%. Good when we need to export more. But if you look at
house-builders, they are significantly lower. He is worried
signs that the property market is slowing down, construction has
halted in the private sector. Bank shares are down 20%, the domestic
share market, the FTSE 250, that is markedly lower as well. All those
things pointed to the market agreeing with Mark Carney we have
serious problems. Is this the right action to take in
what was predicted to be short-term instability?
I am sure it is the right action to take. As Jonty said, this is
realising the reality of all the warnings Mark Carney and other
experts so derided by Michael Gove gave before the referendum.
What is important is people at home grow to understand just what the
scale of economic uncertainty and instability has been created by
this. Mark Carney is trying to reassure
people. He should be reassuring. The fact is
his judgments about the economy are the reverse of what was being
predicted six months ago when we were beginning to see growth and
expecting to see an increase in interest rates, as evidence of the
strength of the economy. Although we don't know what will
happen in the next year. Of course we don't. This is a
worrying time, mortgage lending going down, as Jonty said, the
construction industry. If house prices came down in London
that might not be bad. That might not be such a bad thing.
Different in other parts of the country. London is a very special
case. This is now the reality of the
uncertainty created by Brexit rolling out.
That is why there is an urgent need to create certainty about the terms
of negotiation. We will talk about the terms of
negotiation in a few minutes. The question for today
is when Nigel Farage infamously insulted then European Council
President Herman Van Rompuy in 2010, Was it a) never
having a "proper job" b) having the "charisma
of a damp rag" c) being akin to a
"low-grade bank clerk" At the end of the show Tessa
will give us the correct answer. Voting is under way
in Westminster in the first round of the Conservative Party's
leadership election with the five candidates vying
for the votes of 330 Here's Giles with the low-down
on the candidates and the contest. It has already had
Shakespearean overtones. But the stage is now set for a bid
not just to be Conservative Party leader but Prime Minister of a UK
set on being outside the EU. One of the players so many assumed
would take a starring if not the starring role did not even make
it out of the wings. Ahead of the first vote
of Conservative MPs on Tuesday, we don't have five guys,
and none of them are called Mo. Indeed, it is a woman
who seems to have the big mo, the big political momentum
at the moment. Theresa May was always
likely to run. She was Remain but kept a low
profile during the Her pitch has been
summed up as a serious She is, they say, the safe pair
of hands on the tiller. Former special advisers are helping
to run her campaign and she has backing
from the Daily Mail newspaper. And in the Cabinet, Michael Fallon,
Patrick McLaughlin, Also the Cabinet Office's Matt
Hancock and significant I want someone who has performed
and delivered at the highest level, That was Theresa May
from the beginning. Days ago he was going to run
Boris Johnson's campaign until he buried him in a publicly
brutal act which Boris supporters Now, one of the leaders
of the Leave campaign, the reluctant Gove seems to want
the job like never before, Skills Minister Nick Boles, a Boris
switcher, is running his campaign. His support includes
John Whittingdale and Nicky Morgan. He had reluctantly decided this
was the course of action But he has seen the situation,
and has stepped up to deal with it. Stephen Crabb has long
been spotted as future For some, that is
still in the future. He is running on a ticket
with Business Secretary Sajid Javid But both were Remain
in the referendum and that is Apart from being in the Cabinet,
they have no significant big support but are picking up
new and younger MPs. -- I see him as one
of the new generation, That is something incredibly
important about the future We need someone who can reach
out beyond Westminster. Andrea Leadsom is not
a household name but she made a name beyond Westminster
with her contribution A staunch Leave campaigner and with
39 MPs on board to reflect that. Andrea stands head and shoulders,
and brings a freshness. She is tough but with a positive
outlook on politics. Then there is Liam Fox,
a veteran of leadership campaigns A former Cabinet Minister keen
to get back into He was on the other side
of the debate of the referendum to me but he is the person
to bring us together. He has experience in Government
and is widely liked in the country, as a doctor with his background,
the sort of person people can see One of these five will not just have
to manage a bruised party Simultaneously focusing on how
they separate the UK Let's get the latest
from our assistant political editor Norman Smith who's outside
the committee room in Parliament Have you had your ear against the
door? I can see other journalists, what is going on?
They are right down the end of the committee corridor this time.
All these rooms are booked. I have chatted with Michael Gove who said
he is still in there fighting but only just I suspect because you sent
the damage done to him by his fratricide on Boris Johnson, that
may have hampered his campaign. If you are looking for who will
emerge to take on Theresa May, then increasingly it is beginning to look
like Andrea Leadsom as the Brexit contender to take a run. She seems
to be ahead in terms of the public nominations.
That said, there has been a vigorous counter briefing by Team go
suggesting she lacks experience, that her performs at the hustings
last night was woeful. One Tory minister said to me, we are use to
people not answering questions because we don't answer questions,
and she wasn't answering questions. There is the view she is still
fairly new, and do you really want her to be Prime Minister at such an
uncertain time? That said, Michael Gove has an
awfully long way to come back if he is to achieve second place. That is
the real tussle. We will get an indication when we get the results
announced this evening. Let us look at the other end of the
stale, who is likely to be dropping out first?
If you look at the names declared so far, it would look as if Liam Fox is
potentially the most vulnerable.
There is a view that last night he stressed a lot of big foreign policy
areas and there is a view that maybe he is not pitching for the top job
so much but he might be pitching the Foreign Secretary, defence, that
might be his game. Stephen Crabb, there is a view it is a bit early
for him his pitch as a true blue conservatives, there is mileage in
that but maybe this contest is not his contest.
He also came unstuck this morning on the Today programme when quizzed
about the idea of borrowing ?100 billion to pump into infrastructure.
That seems to chuck in the bin all pounds for deficit reduction. I am
not sure that has been nailed down. He might struggle to make the final
cut. Those two are probably most
vulnerable. Thank you.
We've been joined by the Conservative MP, Bill Cash.
You have spent your career campaigning on the European Union.
The UK has voted to leave but there are many different ways that Britain
could actually x it the EU. What type of Brexit should Britain aim
for? First of all, we need a proper trade
agreement. You don't need to be a member of the EU to trade with the
EU. We have heard from Australia, New Zealand, even John Kerry of
America saying they would trade with us. We have a positive opportunity.
We will do it from a position of strength, we are the fifth largest
economy in the world. We have a trading record that goes back
centuries. Bilateral agreements. What about
access to the single market, should Britain be part of it or have access
to it? You can't actually be in the single
market governed by European laws. Once your appeal the 1972 act, you
are out. he can work at bilateral relations
with other states and that will happen. You are talking about
individual bilateral agreements with all the 27 members? Andrea Ledsom
has already been talking, she is a fantastic candidate, the people who
have massive international experience of dealing with the EU
and the bottom line is that we will be able to achieve it just as other
countries have. Let me get direction of the two general. He says we will
not be part of the single market, we might want to gain access by
bilateral treaties, could mean we wouldn't have to sign up to the
other conditions of being a member of the European Union, ie freedom of
movement. Though and I overuse of established the degree of profound
difference between us on this, but I respect his consistency -- bill and
I. It would untold damage to our economy if we are excluded as a
result of the Brexit terms to the single market. Because we are denied
access to a trading market of 500 million people which has contributed
40% of our trade. Of course, the issue which is linked to that is the
clear conditionality from everything we have heard from the Council of
ministers today, that freedom of movement is inextricably linked to
access to the single market. Which is why none of these questions can
be answered at the moment because we are in a no man's land. But we need
to hear that from the candidates for the Conservative leadership? We do.
We now need to open discussions with Europe about what the framework for
Brexit terms would be. Theresa May has adjusted her priority would be
to negotiate some sort of access for the UK to the single market, as you
have clearly said, that would include freedom of movement, the two
cannot be broken. Beyond that we don't quite know what's going to be
in terms of negotiation, that's why we have to start discussions,
without triggering Article 50. Not yet. I think when it should be
triggered is a judgment to be made once there is a new Prime Minister,
but the existing Prime Minister, who has a duty to maintain government,
should start engaging with other European ministers about the terms.
One should Britain trigger it? Will run a massive trade deficit every
year with the other 27 member states, other ?62 billion a year in
exports and imports. Why would we want to deny access to that massive
market? We would be dealing with them through the trading
arrangements that would be established. Listen. If I may.
Basically, Germany on the other hand, has a trade surplus with the
same 27 member states of 82 billion. This is not a single market, it's a
German single operation. How long will it take to set up all those
trade agreements? The average time it takes to set up, Peter Lilley has
been doing a lot of work on this and it's not as long as people are
making out, and maybe a couple of years or so but not as long as
people think. The evidence from really experienced negotiators is it
doesn't take as long as some are claiming. You are clear that the
candidates who have thrown their hat into the ring have different views
about how the negotiations should proceed. That is why I'm supporting
Andrea Ledsom, she has the experience, she can deliver this.
She has the most massive experience in the setting up, she
understands... One should shape if she wins, drug Article 50? -- when
should she, if she wins drug Article 50. It means reasonably soon. I will
say this. It is going to start sooner or later, but actually right
now, the situation is bedevilled by this proposal to go to the courts.
What do you think about this proposal? Lets just say what it is.
You are a strong defender of the sovereignty of Parliament. Why
shouldn't the House of Commons have a vote on Brexit before the Prime
Minister formally triggers article 50? Without going into detail, the
argument are based on a complete misconception about the European
Community. But what about the idea of the 70 of Parliament? Because the
EU institutions, they put out a statement on June 29, all the member
states and institutions have said it is the government to make the
decision and by constitutional law it belongs to the prerogative, it's
a matter for the government to bring it into effect. Except you did argue
and others did argue about line by line on the Maastricht Treaty, for
example? Why can't Parliament have a chance? I think there are two
points. The constitutional laws would say broadly that democracy
trumps interpretation of the consideration or position and there
has been a referendum which concluded that we should leave the
EU. That's the first point. I think the second point is that it will be
important for Parliament to be in gauge in this, and I think that we
have two be clear about the scale, if this is the case, of unforeseen
detriment to the economy and well-being of people in the UK, as a
result of leaving the EU. You think they should be a second referendum
if there is a clear change in public mood? I don't think there should but
there should be a critical issue and what I expect to be a general
election which a new Prime Minister is elected. If you are doing it
shouldn't be a separate act of Parliament before negotiations are
actually triggered, then it's going to be decided, the Brexit
negotiations will be decided by Tory grassroots members in the shires? We
already have an act of Parliament, it's called the European Union
referendum act, which depleted the basis on which we go forward. But we
don't know what Brexit is going to look like. People will say that
broadly speaking, of course there was that act of Parliament in place
is it your view of Brexit or Theresa May's view? They are very different
as you have admitted. I can only see that it is quite clear that Andrea
Ledsom and those who agree with her and those like myself are quite
clear about this. Article 50 will be invoked almost certainly in the
reasonably near future but not until we have managed... That was for the
referendum was about. That was to leave and we didn't know what shape
it's going to be, now we're getting a flavour, shouldn't Parliament have
a say? That was inherited the outcome of the referendum, the
verdict has been given, leave means leave, entry is right and able to
deal with the Mandarin problem which is reversing the civil service --
Andrea is right. You need a strong character who truly understands the
European issue to deal with all that. I think the Brexiteers are too
willing to live with the uncertainty regardless of the cost to the
country. This country has got to continue to have a functioning
government will stop it well. The promised to should be engaged in
early stages of discussion now in the remaining months. The Prime
Minister should be. It doesn't look too good at the moment for your
party. Can I come back to this issue, it is right for Britain's
feature outside the EU to be shaped by 330 MPs and the ballots of
grassroots members and then at the general election for the country to
decide and vote on in terms of Brexit? We had presented the ocean
when John Major took over. -- the same situation. I think there's a
great deal of Armageddon pulp on the economy and the constitution. We had
percentage ocean with Gordon Brown. He was fatally flawed. -- we had the
same situation. I think he was floored for other reasons. Andrea
Ledsom will be extremely good as a Prime Minister. The new Prime
Minister should call a general election. What about the reports of
postings that Andrea Ledsom, according to one Tory MP, said it
was a car crash performance and went down as a cup of cold sick? I think
that is extremely wrong and typical of the kind of disinformation that
gets put out. Other people who weren't there who are commenting...
This is an election people sometimes say things to diminish the chances
of other people. I don't agree with that verdict, Andrea did a very good
job, she was brilliant in the press conference earlier in the day and in
other meetings, she is a first-class candidate and I say she should be
the next Prime Minister. I think that clue! -- that clue!
Jeremy Corbyn may still have more gaps in his Shadow front bench team
than the England football team's defence but the Labour
leader is still in post despite 80% of his MPs
At last night's meeting of the parliamentary Labour Party,
the deputy leader Tom Watson said he would meet union representatives
today as a last role of the dice in the leadership crisis,
presumably to ask them to help persuade Mr Corbyn to stand aside.
If Mr Corbyn refuses, he faces a leadership challenge
and the question will then be, does he need to secure scores
of nominations to get back onto the ballot paper?
Mark Lobel has been getting to grips with the Labour Party rule book.
I want to reach out to all our members. Despite his large ditch
appeal for party unity yesterday, at least one MP, Angela Eagle, says she
will challenge his leadership if he doesn't resign. But many fear a
contest will be highly acrimonious and may end up in the courts,
because of differing interpretations of Labour Party rules about how a
contender makes the ballot. The rules state where there is no
vacancy, nominations may be sought...
That means at least 51 MPs or MEPs. Jeremy Corbyn's ally, John
McDonnell, insisted mystical than would automatically make the ballot.
He is the leader of the Labour Party, you staying leader of the
Labour Party and if there is a challenge, they will be a democratic
election, Germany will stand, he is automatically on the ballot paper
under our rules. -- Jeremy will stand.
They say these words mean only challenges and not the incumbent
need to get MPs to back their nomination, which is important
because mystical than would struggle to get enough MPs to back him after
the no-confidence vote last week. One senior insider told with they
were divided for a different reason, to protect the incumbent from
frivolous challenges to their leadership such as happened to
Gordon Brown when he was Prime Minister. The insider insisted it
was meant to exclude the incumbent from needing nominations of MPs. And
those on the anti-Corbin Wing point to the words in the nomination,
which they say underline the fact that any nominee would need the
support of MPs to take part, a point underlined by Neil Kinnock this
weekend. The cottage ocean provides, very sensibly, for a party in
Parliament -- the constitution. And also provides that the leader of the
party must have a substantial amount of backing from Labour members of
Parliament. So who would resolve this dispute? This man, Ian McNicol.
We have spoken to the former general secretary who told me he alone often
made clear what the rules were in the past in similar circumstances.
Reports suggest he has already received legal advice. What could
that have been? We spoke to a lawyer who advises the Labour Party on
issues like this. There is a clash of interpretation of the rules,
they're not fully thought through and that has left an ambiguity which
is why, as I understand it, the party and the newspapers are getting
conflicting legal advice on this. Clear as mud then! If there are
still doubts about the rules, then the ab initio to committee decides
-- administrative committee. It is made of the trade unions, the
socialist societies and black Asian and polarity representatives, the
constituency Labour parties, evenly balanced and labour councillors who
are not on the side of Jeremy Corbyn like the PLP members. Overall the
estimate 60 members in favour and 17 against.
To answer that, from the BBC's political research
Hi, Mark, it is not as simple as that.
It is not like a one member, one vote process where everyone puts
Not even a big vote at the end of any NTC decision.
It is a mixture of compromise and consensus.
You need to win people over from different sections of the NEC.
If they state that Jeremy Corbyn needs to find and emissions or not,
that would probably be followed. If not then ultimately they could be a
legal challenge by one side or the other and this might end up in the
High Court. Now you can see what both sides want to avoid the need
for an embarrassing showdown. And we've been joined from Glasgow
by Rhea Wolfson who is standing for election to Labour's
NEC this summer. At least four of the 40 MPs who
backed Germany, McCutcheon Jeremy Corbyn have now changed their mind
and think he should stand down, is in his position now not tenable?
I think it is difficult and harmful to the party the way people are
interacting. But I don't think it is untenable, as long as Jeremy sticks
to the Prince was he stood for which is respect for the membership, and
democracy. I hope the Parliamentary Labour Party also fall in ninth and
recognise Jeremy is standing not just for himself but for the
members. Isn't that a naive view. They won't
fall in line. 80% are clear they want him to go.
I think it is hopeful rather than naive.
I have spent the last week travelling all over the country
speaking to thousands of members as part of this campaign, and to talk
about Jeremy Corbyn and the leadership. They are devastated.
They hope as party activists they can continue advocating for the
party. What evidence is there Jeremy Corbyn
has lost the support of the Labour Party membership?
Polling shows his support is collapsing.
It doesn't show it is collapsing. The numbers who come up to me in the
street and say, can't you get a new leader, the Labour Party is dying.
In the last two meetings of the Parliamentary Labour Party, they
were so passionate, so upset, so angry about Jeremy Corbyn's refusal
to stand down. The rules as your film showed may be
unclear and open to interpretation. What is not unclear if there is no
confidence in Jeremy Corbyn in the Parliamentary Labour Party.
He is now bound to maintain support of his MPs.
He has lost that. Part of that is compounded by the degree of
intimidation and abuse, the fear with which members, Labour MPs's
staff coming to work every day, they fear the threat of intimidation and
worse. Before that, members are equally
upset, we hear, and devastated, by this challenge to Jeremy Corbyn who
was democratically elected. Do you accept the party is split between
the Parliamentary party and its membership?
I don't. That presumes that Members of Parliament are not in touch with
their members, engaging with their members every weekend. They were
bringing back to the Parliamentary party last night and the week before
the result of consultation with activists who overwhelmingly by
their accounts one Jeremy Corbyn to do the decent thing for the Labour
Party and stand down. What do you say about this anecdotal
evidence and claims from MPs of intimidation and fear?
If MPs are suffering this, it is not acceptable, it is not the mood I
have seen at the meetings I have been to. It has been sadness and
frustration but not intimidation or anger.
Anecdotally the party is split. At the rallies we have been having,
25,000 people have engaged, the membership has grown by over 60,000.
Over half had joined to support Jeremy Corbyn. It is a fallacy to
save his support is collapsing. Whilst I recognise there is a
division, clearly the PLP are not listening to all their members.
Angela Eagle, her local constituency passed a motion in support of Jeremy
Corbyn. I feel frustrated and that is
replicated across the country. What do you say? I talked to Angela,
she faced homophobic abuse at that meeting. Talked to MPs around the
country. Under the influence of momentum, activists and Members of
Parliament and their staff are facing, day in, day out, harassment,
and in some cases intimidation. And I famously remember, I was in
the Labour Party fighting all this in the 1980s, that was militant
then, it is momentum now, they are different RDs. But they are neither
bodies respecting the wider electorate that monster see a Labour
Government. That respect is slipping further and further. That is what
was talked about last night at the Parliamentary Labour Party by Neil
Kinnock. He knows about this from the 1980s,
he reminded MPs that people in supermarkets told them Ed Miliband
was not electable and asked to apply that supermarket test to Jeremy
Corbyn, which he passed it? I think he would.
You need to get out more. That is insulting that I am not on
the doorstep. I am a party activist. I have been beside you, I have
campaigned everywhere, in Scotland for the Scottish elections and
working hard for the council elections. So do these momentum
activists. They are not on the fringes of the party. Councillors
and local representatives are involved. It is insulting to say
otherwise. Do you agree if it carries on there
will be a split because there is nothing to reconcile both sides of
the party. Shouldn't it be a case that you and the MPs left and the
Labour Party members form a new party? Or Tessa Jowell does the
same. No, me and those of my politics are
not leaving the Labour Party. We are here to make sure the Labour Party
has a prospect of representing the people of this country in
Government. What do you say?
There should be no split in the party, it would be devastating for
those who need a Labour Government. I am devastated we are not governing
at the moment. It is really sad. I don't want a split.
You wouldn't suggest there should be some declaration of Independence by
MPs against Jeremy Corbyn. There would be more of you, you could set
up in opposition. This reminds me of a great
decoration of Ted Knight Way back in the early 1980s when he stood up at
a public meeting and said there can be no compromise with the
electorate. It is the people of this country who want a Labour Party they
can believe in, who are being so badly let down by Jeremy Corbyn's
refusal to do the decent thing in the interests of our party.
Rhea Wolfson, we know there will be another plea for him to go.
I hope the unions continue to support Jeremy Corbyn. And I will
stand by him as he continues to represent the membership of the
Labour Party. While much of Westminster is focused
on the small matter of who should be the Prime Minister and Leader
Of The Opposition, teachers across England are out
on a one-day strike. The National Union Of Teachers
called the strike over pay, Our education dditor
Branwen Jeffreys joins us 3000 teachers have set off on a
march through the city. Is there anything different to this strike
and to previous one-day strikes by teachers?
The focus of all the teachers who set off if you minutes ago from
here, several hundreds of them, is mainly about education funding. They
point to figures from the Independent Institute for fiscal in
which show although the amount of money spent on schools is going up,
the amount per pupil is going to fall over the next few years. They
say that is leading to job losses with more expected in the future,
and bigger class sizes. Just a quarter of the new team members
actually voted in the ballot other amongst those who did the support
was overwhelming. Why was it such a low turnout in
terms of the ones who decided to take part in the ballot if there is
such strength of feeling about educating -- education funding?
It is an exceptionally low turnout, there is a dispute with the
Government, and the NAS UWT. Some are waiting for the pay review body
on what they should be paid, to come back.
I understand that could be in the next couple of days, many teachers
will be waiting to see what the offer is from the Government
although we know pay restraint across the public sector remains in
place. There is no doubt some of the
concerns are more widely shared. Initial information from around the
country is quite a lot of schools are open and this strike is quite
patchy. Perhaps some teachers don't feel
motivated enough at the moment to come out on strike on these issues.
One other interesting thing this morning we had BMA junior doctors
representatives who are themselves balloting on their own industrial
action, here in support of the entity.
There was a time when the BMA and a new would have been unlikely
bedfellows. We've been joined by the acting
general secretary of the National Union of Teachers,
Kevin Courtney, and by Toby Young, who set up
a Free School in west London. We also asked the Department
for Education for an interview with a minister, but none
was available. Kevin Courtney, are you playing
politics with children's future as the Education Secretary has said?
Not at all, we are reticulated a demand, we are on strike for our
young people. We are hearing stories of schools were class sizes are
going up to 35, where art, dance, drama teachers are being made
redundant and not replaced, where the subjects on a longer offered in
secondary schools. Where classroom assistants are being dismissed,
where individual attention to children is going down. It is making
life hard for our young people and their headteachers.
Why only 24% of your membership have taken part?
That is a good question, the 92% was a high majority.
Of the 24%. That shows we are on the right issue. It is a big sample. A
lot of people are supporting it. About 6000 people have joined the
union since announcing the strike. It is a low turnout. We want to do
electronic balloting. The fundamental question is teachers
don't think we can win. It is the right issue but they are not
convinced we can win. Let us talk about the funding, these
warnings that spending per pupil, not overall spending, in schools in
England is likely to fall by 8% in real terms.
What do you say? Education is one of the department
that has been ring-fenced. That is the overall envelope.
Along with international and health. The IFS percolated spending on
schools increased by 3% in real terms.
I have asked you per pupil. I want you to answer the question
about per-pupil funding. With your experience at the London free
school, there is an increase in pupil numbers and there are rising
costs. The envelope may be going up, but
not keeping pace with the other costs.
The rising costs are not to do with cuts in the school budget but mainly
to do with increasing obligations on schools to contribute to NI
cogitations and pensions. And the public sector pay freeze which seems
reasonable given inflation is at zero. I accept there will be some
real terms cuts. One thing I would say in response is that there is
very little international evidence to link spending per pupil with
pupil outcomes. The head of the programme for
International student assessment said variation in spending per pupil
only accounted for 20% in variation in pupil outcomes because it mainly
means, the increase, almost double the expenditure on schools since
1997, has meant smaller class sizes. There was no link between pupil
outcomes and class sizes. If we don't have dance, drama, arts
teachers, there will be no GCSEs in those subjects. There is a big link
with exam grades. We are talking about spending per
pupil. If you increase that significantly,
do the outcomes improve? Look at the results in London where
spending per pupil is higher. There is a pronounced link.
Toby is a bright the charges on schools is pronounced, national
insurance and pension conclusions. These school governing body at your
school will have to find her every 20 teachers an extra teacher's
salary to pay back to the Treasury when the Treasury is freezing the
per-pupil money. That is the cause of teachers being sacked, arts
teachers, the cause of last sizes going up. I have heard the argument
class size does not matter, that is not correct. People who pay for
private education are paying for smaller class sizes.
They are being ripped off. When teacher shortage is so pronounced
because of unnecessary workload, if you increase class sizes, you
increase that workload. There is strong evidence from
schools locally to me in London they are struggling to recruit in those
subjects. That is reality. In my school is there a four
squalls, not one, we haven't fired any music or drama teachers, they
are both thriving as departments. I think my main bone of contention
with you is not that there aren't good to be real term cuts... There
is going to be a squeeze. My issue is, when has a one-day wildcat
strike like this ever achieved anything? The NUT is already having
constructive talks with Nicky Morgan, she is really working with
you on reducing teacher workload, she has published three reports, we
know that the strikes never achieve anything, why break off talks on its
going reasonably well? It's not going reasonably well at all. It's
important we are taking action now. The origination of this action
cannot with the break-up of pay and academising across the country. We
have asked Nicky Morgan for evidence that any other country does that,
any other high performing education jurisdiction, none of them have,
Finland, South Korea, Singapore. There is no evidence base. Can you
achieve anything? I think we can. The reason for our turnout being
reasonably low is because members think we can't but we are very
messages of support from thousands of parents, from a group called Mr
Our Schools, parents understand we are raising issues that matter to
them. Tomorrow Sir John Chilcot
will finally publish his report into the UK's involvement
in the 2003 Iraq War. It's a significant moment -
with many people expecting it to provide a definitive verdict
on Tony Blair's role in taking the country to war
against Saddam Hussain. In a moment we'll discuss
the potential impact First though, here's
a reminder of what Sir John What I was saying to President Bush
it is very clear and simple. It is, you can count on us, we will
be with you in tackling this, I was having to persuade him to take
a view radically different from many of the people
in his administration. So what I was saying
to him is, I'm going to be I'm not going to push you down this
path, and then back out when it gets too hot politically,
because it is going to get hot I haven't seen the report, nobody
has, we will know tomorrow. As Sir John Chilcot said, the purpose of
the report was to understand the lessons of Iraq and I think by
general consent, the controversy with hindsight about the invasion of
Iraq has affected... It's almost paralysed our foreign policy since
that time. So I hope that what Sir John Chilcot will do is to, with the
informed benefit of hindsight, be very clear about what kind of
foresight planning we fail to take proper account. I think that again,
I was a member of the Cabinet that supported the innovation because of
all the evidence, what is clear that we were not nearly sufficiently
involved and engaged with planning the aftermath. This is clear and
there is consensus... I think the charge that people like Jeremy
Corbyn and John McDonnell will be looking at is whether Tony Blair had
already decided and agreed with George Bush to go to war. Let me
make a point about that. We have at an earlier discussion about why
Jeremy Corbyn is not standing down and so forth. It is the purpose of
Jeremy Corbyn's life's mission to be able to denounce Tony Blair as of
the criminal tomorrow. That is, I believe, a large part of what he
wants to hang on. I hope that Sir John Chilcot's report will give us
very clear exposition of what happened, interpretation of what
happens, but also will point to the future framing of decisions about
foreign policy, about engagement with governments in supporting
action against the radical regimes and so on -- tyrannical regimes. But
is the future policy for intervention, which has so paralysed
not just our government but governments around the world,
sometimes to the great detriment of countries that might have benefited?
Let's be very clear, Jeremy Corbyn wants to tell Sir Tony Blair that he
is a war criminal. They will be those that oppose him in that. I can
only say they have to have evidence from the report, don't believe that
evidence will be there. Sir John Chilcot has already made clear that
part of his remit is not to judge the legality. We will find out
tomorrow. Now it's time to find out
the answer to our quiz. When Nigel Farage infamously
insulted the then European Council President Herman Van Rompuy in 2010,
what did he NOT accuse him of? b) Having the "charisma
of a damp rag". c) Being akin to a "low-grade bank
clerk". I think he has usually those in
relation to different people! You are right, but which one did he not
attached to Herman Van Rompuy? Didn't he say that he had the
charisma of a damp rag? He did... It was the first one, never have a
proper job. All the others he did a tribute to Herman Van Rompuy.
speech to the President Of The European Council and former
Belgian Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy, Nigel Farage
said Mr Van Rompuy had "the charisma of a damp rag",
was akin to a "low-grade bank clerk", and came
Last week, after the UK voted to leave the EU,
Nigel Farage used a speech in the European Parliament
"Virtually none of you have ever done a proper job in your lives."
Let's take a look at that clip and some other highlights
from Nigel Farage's time at the top of Ukip.
It seems to me that you have given away ?7 million of British taxpayers
money for nothing in return. Use it with our country flag, did not
represent our country's interests. -- use it.
They all look a little bit like goldfish. That have just been tipped
out of the ball onto the floor. Desperately gasping for air and
clinging on to the comfort blanket that is, this is a protest vote.
This is number one! The world's greatest leader!
I am a man of my work, don't Break my word so I shall be writing to the
Ukip National executive in a few minutes, saying that I am standing
down as leader of Ukip. Isn't it funny? When I came here 17 years ago
and I said that I wanted to lead a campaign to get Britain to leave the
European Union, you all laughed at me. Well I have to say, you're not
laughing now, are you? So, with Nigel Farage standing
down as Ukip leader, who will be the next to run
the UK Independence Party We've been joined by the party's
former deputy chairman Suzanne Evans, who is currently
suspended from the party. Did you expect him to stand down?
No, I was surprised but I understand why, the latest in his lifetime
ambition to get us out of the European Union, now we have this
momentous vote which will stand, let's be clear about that. So yes,
out on a high, why not? Most political careers don't and like
that. Will he keep out of the spotlight? I very much doubt it. I
think whoever takes over as leader of Ukip will perhaps believe his
input. Except he clashed with all the major party figures including
yourself, Douglas Carswell, Patrick Fling and Neil Hamilton, will it be
less divisive without him? I think it will. Nigel is a Marmite
character, I think now for the leader, we need somebody who is more
embracing, who shows it's not a one-man and order a single issue
party, and also a party that attracts more women. By looking
behind you, you see, neither did have an all-male team very often.
What about you? You were suspended for the moment, what about you? I
hope the party might overturn my suspension to allow me to stand. I
always said if he stood down I would like to have a go at it and I think
it's a shame I find myself in this position of being suspended,
apparently for criticising a homophobic candidate, not something
most people would think would be a disloyal thing to do in politics, so
I hope I can be on the ballot paper. What is happening in the suspension?
I did appeal, but it became clear early on that the appeal panel had
already prejudge the outcome. When I was originally suspended I wasn't
allowed to put any evidence to the panel to defend myself, I wasn't
even there, it looked like it would be a repeat of the same. So I have
actually withdrawn from that appeal. We shall see. I getting support from
people who want me to be on the ballot paper, e-mails, phone calls,
we shall see. I hope the party does the right thing. And if not EU, who
would you back? I am not going to say, I want to see who puts
themselves forward and what policies, I don't want someone to
take over Ukip and taken to the far right, we need a more common sense,
centre ground party who can afford to conservative voters in the south
and Labour voters in the North. There is your pitch for the
leadership! You heard it here first! Thanks to Tessa Jowell
and all my guests. The One O'Clock News is starting
over on BBC One now. I'll be back at 11.30 tomorrow
with Andrew for live coverage Dip into a summer of
amazing live music,