05/07/2016 Daily Politics

advise them to do that whether times are good or difficult. When taking

out a mortgage, at some point over the life of that mortgage, times

will be difficult. It might be at the start, five years in, ten or 15.

You want to make sure as a family, as an individual, but

Hello, and welcome to the Daily Politics.

Voting gets underway in the Conservative leadership

election as the five candidates vying to take over

from David Cameron hope they'll get enough support to avoid crashing

Labour's deputy leader Tom Watson is meeting the big unions

in what is described as a last roll of the dice to persuade

The Governor of the Bank Of England Mark Carney warns of challenging

times ahead as he assesses the impact of the vote to leave

And hundreds of schools across England are closed today

as teachers strike over pay, workloads and school funding.

And with us for the whole of the programme today is the former

Labour Culture Secretary Tessa Jowell.

But first, the Governor of the Bank Of England has warned

that the UK faces a challenging economic outlook following

Speaking in the last hour, Mark Carney said that some

of the risks he warned about before the vote to leave

The number of vulnerable households could increase

with a tougher economic outlook and potential

-- with a tougher economic outlook and potential tightening

In particular, there is growing evidence of uncertainty

about the referendum had delayed major economic decisions such

as business investment, construction and housing market activity.

Our business correspondent Jonty Bloom joins me now.

What else did he have to say? In particular, he is worried about

the amount of lending in the economy, that is why he has weakened

the rules for the banks, they have more capital they can lend, about

?150 billion will be released. A sign of how important he thinks it

is the banks keep lending. The risks are quite significant,

especially with commercial property. He says the amount of foreign

investment in commercial property fell by half in the first three

months. Yesterday, we saw Standard Life frees one of its property funds

so no one could take their money out so there would be no run on people

taking money out. People need to invest here to improve our trade

deficit. How worried should we be about the

risks Mark Carney has said the board about before the vote?

Mark Carney is being serious and very worried. He says the Bank of

England is taking a significant number of steps to ameliorate the

worst effects. Today, we have had that extra

borrowing. We are expecting there will be a cut in interest rates down

to 0.25%, even lower. Also, the Bank of England has said

there is the opportunity for more quantitative easing when they print

money and release it. They have been doing that since the credit crunch

and could be doing even more. In terms of other monetary policy,

the currency rates and stock market, have they recovered since the

initial dip? That was put to him, why are you

worried when the stock market has recovered? He said the pound is

still down 10%. Good when we need to export more. But if you look at

house-builders, they are significantly lower. He is worried

signs that the property market is slowing down, construction has

halted in the private sector. Bank shares are down 20%, the domestic

share market, the FTSE 250, that is markedly lower as well. All those

things pointed to the market agreeing with Mark Carney we have

serious problems. Is this the right action to take in

what was predicted to be short-term instability?

I am sure it is the right action to take. As Jonty said, this is

realising the reality of all the warnings Mark Carney and other

experts so derided by Michael Gove gave before the referendum.

What is important is people at home grow to understand just what the

scale of economic uncertainty and instability has been created by

this. Mark Carney is trying to reassure

people. He should be reassuring. The fact is

his judgments about the economy are the reverse of what was being

predicted six months ago when we were beginning to see growth and

expecting to see an increase in interest rates, as evidence of the

strength of the economy. Although we don't know what will

happen in the next year. Of course we don't. This is a

worrying time, mortgage lending going down, as Jonty said, the

construction industry. If house prices came down in London

that might not be bad. That might not be such a bad thing.

Different in other parts of the country. London is a very special

case. This is now the reality of the

uncertainty created by Brexit rolling out.

That is why there is an urgent need to create certainty about the terms

of negotiation. We will talk about the terms of

negotiation in a few minutes. The question for today

is when Nigel Farage infamously insulted then European Council

President Herman Van Rompuy in 2010, Was it a) never

having a "proper job" b) having the "charisma

of a damp rag" c) being akin to a

"low-grade bank clerk" At the end of the show Tessa

will give us the correct answer. Voting is under way

in Westminster in the first round of the Conservative Party's

leadership election with the five candidates vying

for the votes of 330 Here's Giles with the low-down

on the candidates and the contest. It has already had

Shakespearean overtones. But the stage is now set for a bid

not just to be Conservative Party leader but Prime Minister of a UK

set on being outside the EU. One of the players so many assumed

would take a starring if not the starring role did not even make

it out of the wings. Ahead of the first vote

of Conservative MPs on Tuesday, we don't have five guys,

and none of them are called Mo. Indeed, it is a woman

who seems to have the big mo, the big political momentum

at the moment. Theresa May was always

likely to run. She was Remain but kept a low

profile during the Her pitch has been

summed up as a serious She is, they say, the safe pair

of hands on the tiller. Former special advisers are helping

to run her campaign and she has backing

from the Daily Mail newspaper. And in the Cabinet, Michael Fallon,

Patrick McLaughlin, Also the Cabinet Office's Matt

Hancock and significant I want someone who has performed

and delivered at the highest level, That was Theresa May

from the beginning. Days ago he was going to run

Boris Johnson's campaign until he buried him in a publicly

brutal act which Boris supporters Now, one of the leaders

of the Leave campaign, the reluctant Gove seems to want

the job like never before, Skills Minister Nick Boles, a Boris

switcher, is running his campaign. His support includes

John Whittingdale and Nicky Morgan. He had reluctantly decided this

was the course of action But he has seen the situation,

and has stepped up to deal with it. Stephen Crabb has long

been spotted as future For some, that is

still in the future. He is running on a ticket

with Business Secretary Sajid Javid But both were Remain

in the referendum and that is Apart from being in the Cabinet,

they have no significant big support but are picking up

new and younger MPs. -- I see him as one

of the new generation, That is something incredibly

important about the future We need someone who can reach

out beyond Westminster. Andrea Leadsom is not

a household name but she made a name beyond Westminster

with her contribution A staunch Leave campaigner and with

39 MPs on board to reflect that. Andrea stands head and shoulders,

and brings a freshness. She is tough but with a positive

outlook on politics. Then there is Liam Fox,

a veteran of leadership campaigns A former Cabinet Minister keen

to get back into He was on the other side

of the debate of the referendum to me but he is the person

to bring us together. He has experience in Government

and is widely liked in the country, as a doctor with his background,

the sort of person people can see One of these five will not just have

to manage a bruised party Simultaneously focusing on how

they separate the UK Let's get the latest

from our assistant political editor Norman Smith who's outside

the committee room in Parliament Have you had your ear against the

door? I can see other journalists, what is going on?

They are right down the end of the committee corridor this time.

All these rooms are booked. I have chatted with Michael Gove who said

he is still in there fighting but only just I suspect because you sent

the damage done to him by his fratricide on Boris Johnson, that

may have hampered his campaign. If you are looking for who will

emerge to take on Theresa May, then increasingly it is beginning to look

like Andrea Leadsom as the Brexit contender to take a run. She seems

to be ahead in terms of the public nominations.

That said, there has been a vigorous counter briefing by Team go

suggesting she lacks experience, that her performs at the hustings

last night was woeful. One Tory minister said to me, we are use to

people not answering questions because we don't answer questions,

and she wasn't answering questions. There is the view she is still

fairly new, and do you really want her to be Prime Minister at such an

uncertain time? That said, Michael Gove has an

awfully long way to come back if he is to achieve second place. That is

the real tussle. We will get an indication when we get the results

announced this evening. Let us look at the other end of the

stale, who is likely to be dropping out first?

If you look at the names declared so far, it would look as if Liam Fox is

potentially the most vulnerable.

There is a view that last night he stressed a lot of big foreign policy

areas and there is a view that maybe he is not pitching for the top job

so much but he might be pitching the Foreign Secretary, defence, that

might be his game. Stephen Crabb, there is a view it is a bit early

for him his pitch as a true blue conservatives, there is mileage in

that but maybe this contest is not his contest.

He also came unstuck this morning on the Today programme when quizzed

about the idea of borrowing ?100 billion to pump into infrastructure.

That seems to chuck in the bin all pounds for deficit reduction. I am

not sure that has been nailed down. He might struggle to make the final

cut. Those two are probably most

vulnerable. Thank you.

We've been joined by the Conservative MP, Bill Cash.

You have spent your career campaigning on the European Union.

The UK has voted to leave but there are many different ways that Britain

could actually x it the EU. What type of Brexit should Britain aim

for? First of all, we need a proper trade

agreement. You don't need to be a member of the EU to trade with the

EU. We have heard from Australia, New Zealand, even John Kerry of

America saying they would trade with us. We have a positive opportunity.

We will do it from a position of strength, we are the fifth largest

economy in the world. We have a trading record that goes back

centuries. Bilateral agreements. What about

access to the single market, should Britain be part of it or have access

to it? You can't actually be in the single

market governed by European laws. Once your appeal the 1972 act, you

are out. he can work at bilateral relations

with other states and that will happen. You are talking about

individual bilateral agreements with all the 27 members? Andrea Ledsom

has already been talking, she is a fantastic candidate, the people who

have massive international experience of dealing with the EU

and the bottom line is that we will be able to achieve it just as other

countries have. Let me get direction of the two general. He says we will

not be part of the single market, we might want to gain access by

bilateral treaties, could mean we wouldn't have to sign up to the

other conditions of being a member of the European Union, ie freedom of

movement. Though and I overuse of established the degree of profound

difference between us on this, but I respect his consistency -- bill and

I. It would untold damage to our economy if we are excluded as a

result of the Brexit terms to the single market. Because we are denied

access to a trading market of 500 million people which has contributed

40% of our trade. Of course, the issue which is linked to that is the

clear conditionality from everything we have heard from the Council of

ministers today, that freedom of movement is inextricably linked to

access to the single market. Which is why none of these questions can

be answered at the moment because we are in a no man's land. But we need

to hear that from the candidates for the Conservative leadership? We do.

We now need to open discussions with Europe about what the framework for

Brexit terms would be. Theresa May has adjusted her priority would be

to negotiate some sort of access for the UK to the single market, as you

have clearly said, that would include freedom of movement, the two

cannot be broken. Beyond that we don't quite know what's going to be

in terms of negotiation, that's why we have to start discussions,

without triggering Article 50. Not yet. I think when it should be

triggered is a judgment to be made once there is a new Prime Minister,

but the existing Prime Minister, who has a duty to maintain government,

should start engaging with other European ministers about the terms.

One should Britain trigger it? Will run a massive trade deficit every

year with the other 27 member states, other ?62 billion a year in

exports and imports. Why would we want to deny access to that massive

market? We would be dealing with them through the trading

arrangements that would be established. Listen. If I may.

Basically, Germany on the other hand, has a trade surplus with the

same 27 member states of 82 billion. This is not a single market, it's a

German single operation. How long will it take to set up all those

trade agreements? The average time it takes to set up, Peter Lilley has

been doing a lot of work on this and it's not as long as people are

making out, and maybe a couple of years or so but not as long as

people think. The evidence from really experienced negotiators is it

doesn't take as long as some are claiming. You are clear that the

candidates who have thrown their hat into the ring have different views

about how the negotiations should proceed. That is why I'm supporting

Andrea Ledsom, she has the experience, she can deliver this.

She has the most massive experience in the setting up, she

understands... One should shape if she wins, drug Article 50? -- when

should she, if she wins drug Article 50. It means reasonably soon. I will

say this. It is going to start sooner or later, but actually right

now, the situation is bedevilled by this proposal to go to the courts.

What do you think about this proposal? Lets just say what it is.

You are a strong defender of the sovereignty of Parliament. Why

shouldn't the House of Commons have a vote on Brexit before the Prime

Minister formally triggers article 50? Without going into detail, the

argument are based on a complete misconception about the European

Community. But what about the idea of the 70 of Parliament? Because the

EU institutions, they put out a statement on June 29, all the member

states and institutions have said it is the government to make the

decision and by constitutional law it belongs to the prerogative, it's

a matter for the government to bring it into effect. Except you did argue

and others did argue about line by line on the Maastricht Treaty, for

example? Why can't Parliament have a chance? I think there are two

points. The constitutional laws would say broadly that democracy

trumps interpretation of the consideration or position and there

has been a referendum which concluded that we should leave the

EU. That's the first point. I think the second point is that it will be

important for Parliament to be in gauge in this, and I think that we

have two be clear about the scale, if this is the case, of unforeseen

detriment to the economy and well-being of people in the UK, as a

result of leaving the EU. You think they should be a second referendum

if there is a clear change in public mood? I don't think there should but

there should be a critical issue and what I expect to be a general

election which a new Prime Minister is elected. If you are doing it

shouldn't be a separate act of Parliament before negotiations are

actually triggered, then it's going to be decided, the Brexit

negotiations will be decided by Tory grassroots members in the shires? We

already have an act of Parliament, it's called the European Union

referendum act, which depleted the basis on which we go forward. But we

don't know what Brexit is going to look like. People will say that

broadly speaking, of course there was that act of Parliament in place

is it your view of Brexit or Theresa May's view? They are very different

as you have admitted. I can only see that it is quite clear that Andrea

Ledsom and those who agree with her and those like myself are quite

clear about this. Article 50 will be invoked almost certainly in the

reasonably near future but not until we have managed... That was for the

referendum was about. That was to leave and we didn't know what shape

it's going to be, now we're getting a flavour, shouldn't Parliament have

a say? That was inherited the outcome of the referendum, the

verdict has been given, leave means leave, entry is right and able to

deal with the Mandarin problem which is reversing the civil service --

Andrea is right. You need a strong character who truly understands the

European issue to deal with all that. I think the Brexiteers are too

willing to live with the uncertainty regardless of the cost to the

country. This country has got to continue to have a functioning

government will stop it well. The promised to should be engaged in

early stages of discussion now in the remaining months. The Prime

Minister should be. It doesn't look too good at the moment for your

party. Can I come back to this issue, it is right for Britain's

feature outside the EU to be shaped by 330 MPs and the ballots of

grassroots members and then at the general election for the country to

decide and vote on in terms of Brexit? We had presented the ocean

when John Major took over. -- the same situation. I think there's a

great deal of Armageddon pulp on the economy and the constitution. We had

percentage ocean with Gordon Brown. He was fatally flawed. -- we had the

same situation. I think he was floored for other reasons. Andrea

Ledsom will be extremely good as a Prime Minister. The new Prime

Minister should call a general election. What about the reports of

postings that Andrea Ledsom, according to one Tory MP, said it

was a car crash performance and went down as a cup of cold sick? I think

that is extremely wrong and typical of the kind of disinformation that

gets put out. Other people who weren't there who are commenting...

This is an election people sometimes say things to diminish the chances

of other people. I don't agree with that verdict, Andrea did a very good

job, she was brilliant in the press conference earlier in the day and in

other meetings, she is a first-class candidate and I say she should be

the next Prime Minister. I think that clue! -- that clue!

Jeremy Corbyn may still have more gaps in his Shadow front bench team

than the England football team's defence but the Labour

leader is still in post despite 80% of his MPs

At last night's meeting of the parliamentary Labour Party,

the deputy leader Tom Watson said he would meet union representatives

today as a last role of the dice in the leadership crisis,

presumably to ask them to help persuade Mr Corbyn to stand aside.

If Mr Corbyn refuses, he faces a leadership challenge

and the question will then be, does he need to secure scores

of nominations to get back onto the ballot paper?

Mark Lobel has been getting to grips with the Labour Party rule book.

I want to reach out to all our members. Despite his large ditch

appeal for party unity yesterday, at least one MP, Angela Eagle, says she

will challenge his leadership if he doesn't resign. But many fear a

contest will be highly acrimonious and may end up in the courts,

because of differing interpretations of Labour Party rules about how a

contender makes the ballot. The rules state where there is no

vacancy, nominations may be sought...

That means at least 51 MPs or MEPs. Jeremy Corbyn's ally, John

McDonnell, insisted mystical than would automatically make the ballot.

He is the leader of the Labour Party, you staying leader of the

Labour Party and if there is a challenge, they will be a democratic

election, Germany will stand, he is automatically on the ballot paper

under our rules. -- Jeremy will stand.

They say these words mean only challenges and not the incumbent

need to get MPs to back their nomination, which is important

because mystical than would struggle to get enough MPs to back him after

the no-confidence vote last week. One senior insider told with they

were divided for a different reason, to protect the incumbent from

frivolous challenges to their leadership such as happened to

Gordon Brown when he was Prime Minister. The insider insisted it

was meant to exclude the incumbent from needing nominations of MPs. And

those on the anti-Corbin Wing point to the words in the nomination,

which they say underline the fact that any nominee would need the

support of MPs to take part, a point underlined by Neil Kinnock this

weekend. The cottage ocean provides, very sensibly, for a party in

Parliament -- the constitution. And also provides that the leader of the

party must have a substantial amount of backing from Labour members of

Parliament. So who would resolve this dispute? This man, Ian McNicol.

We have spoken to the former general secretary who told me he alone often

made clear what the rules were in the past in similar circumstances.

Reports suggest he has already received legal advice. What could

that have been? We spoke to a lawyer who advises the Labour Party on

issues like this. There is a clash of interpretation of the rules,

they're not fully thought through and that has left an ambiguity which

is why, as I understand it, the party and the newspapers are getting

conflicting legal advice on this. Clear as mud then! If there are

still doubts about the rules, then the ab initio to committee decides

-- administrative committee. It is made of the trade unions, the

socialist societies and black Asian and polarity representatives, the

constituency Labour parties, evenly balanced and labour councillors who

are not on the side of Jeremy Corbyn like the PLP members. Overall the

estimate 60 members in favour and 17 against.

To answer that, from the BBC's political research

Hi, Mark, it is not as simple as that.

It is not like a one member, one vote process where everyone puts

Not even a big vote at the end of any NTC decision.

It is a mixture of compromise and consensus.

You need to win people over from different sections of the NEC.

If they state that Jeremy Corbyn needs to find and emissions or not,

that would probably be followed. If not then ultimately they could be a

legal challenge by one side or the other and this might end up in the

High Court. Now you can see what both sides want to avoid the need

for an embarrassing showdown. And we've been joined from Glasgow

by Rhea Wolfson who is standing for election to Labour's

NEC this summer. At least four of the 40 MPs who

backed Germany, McCutcheon Jeremy Corbyn have now changed their mind

and think he should stand down, is in his position now not tenable?

I think it is difficult and harmful to the party the way people are

interacting. But I don't think it is untenable, as long as Jeremy sticks

to the Prince was he stood for which is respect for the membership, and

democracy. I hope the Parliamentary Labour Party also fall in ninth and

recognise Jeremy is standing not just for himself but for the

members. Isn't that a naive view. They won't

fall in line. 80% are clear they want him to go.

I think it is hopeful rather than naive.

I have spent the last week travelling all over the country

speaking to thousands of members as part of this campaign, and to talk

about Jeremy Corbyn and the leadership. They are devastated.

They hope as party activists they can continue advocating for the

party. What evidence is there Jeremy Corbyn

has lost the support of the Labour Party membership?

Polling shows his support is collapsing.

It doesn't show it is collapsing. The numbers who come up to me in the

street and say, can't you get a new leader, the Labour Party is dying.

In the last two meetings of the Parliamentary Labour Party, they

were so passionate, so upset, so angry about Jeremy Corbyn's refusal

to stand down. The rules as your film showed may be

unclear and open to interpretation. What is not unclear if there is no

confidence in Jeremy Corbyn in the Parliamentary Labour Party.

He is now bound to maintain support of his MPs.

He has lost that. Part of that is compounded by the degree of

intimidation and abuse, the fear with which members, Labour MPs's

staff coming to work every day, they fear the threat of intimidation and

worse. Before that, members are equally

upset, we hear, and devastated, by this challenge to Jeremy Corbyn who

was democratically elected. Do you accept the party is split between

the Parliamentary party and its membership?

I don't. That presumes that Members of Parliament are not in touch with

their members, engaging with their members every weekend. They were

bringing back to the Parliamentary party last night and the week before

the result of consultation with activists who overwhelmingly by

their accounts one Jeremy Corbyn to do the decent thing for the Labour

Party and stand down. What do you say about this anecdotal

evidence and claims from MPs of intimidation and fear?

If MPs are suffering this, it is not acceptable, it is not the mood I

have seen at the meetings I have been to. It has been sadness and

frustration but not intimidation or anger.

Anecdotally the party is split. At the rallies we have been having,

25,000 people have engaged, the membership has grown by over 60,000.

Over half had joined to support Jeremy Corbyn. It is a fallacy to

save his support is collapsing. Whilst I recognise there is a

division, clearly the PLP are not listening to all their members.

Angela Eagle, her local constituency passed a motion in support of Jeremy

Corbyn. I feel frustrated and that is

replicated across the country. What do you say? I talked to Angela,

she faced homophobic abuse at that meeting. Talked to MPs around the

country. Under the influence of momentum, activists and Members of

Parliament and their staff are facing, day in, day out, harassment,

and in some cases intimidation. And I famously remember, I was in

the Labour Party fighting all this in the 1980s, that was militant

then, it is momentum now, they are different RDs. But they are neither

bodies respecting the wider electorate that monster see a Labour

Government. That respect is slipping further and further. That is what

was talked about last night at the Parliamentary Labour Party by Neil

Kinnock. He knows about this from the 1980s,

he reminded MPs that people in supermarkets told them Ed Miliband

was not electable and asked to apply that supermarket test to Jeremy

Corbyn, which he passed it? I think he would.

You need to get out more. That is insulting that I am not on

the doorstep. I am a party activist. I have been beside you, I have

campaigned everywhere, in Scotland for the Scottish elections and

working hard for the council elections. So do these momentum

activists. They are not on the fringes of the party. Councillors

and local representatives are involved. It is insulting to say

otherwise. Do you agree if it carries on there

will be a split because there is nothing to reconcile both sides of

the party. Shouldn't it be a case that you and the MPs left and the

Labour Party members form a new party? Or Tessa Jowell does the

same. No, me and those of my politics are

not leaving the Labour Party. We are here to make sure the Labour Party

has a prospect of representing the people of this country in

Government. What do you say?

There should be no split in the party, it would be devastating for

those who need a Labour Government. I am devastated we are not governing

at the moment. It is really sad. I don't want a split.

You wouldn't suggest there should be some declaration of Independence by

MPs against Jeremy Corbyn. There would be more of you, you could set

up in opposition. This reminds me of a great

decoration of Ted Knight Way back in the early 1980s when he stood up at

a public meeting and said there can be no compromise with the

electorate. It is the people of this country who want a Labour Party they

can believe in, who are being so badly let down by Jeremy Corbyn's

refusal to do the decent thing in the interests of our party.

Rhea Wolfson, we know there will be another plea for him to go.

I hope the unions continue to support Jeremy Corbyn. And I will

stand by him as he continues to represent the membership of the

Labour Party. While much of Westminster is focused

on the small matter of who should be the Prime Minister and Leader

Of The Opposition, teachers across England are out

on a one-day strike. The National Union Of Teachers

called the strike over pay, Our education dditor

Branwen Jeffreys joins us 3000 teachers have set off on a

march through the city. Is there anything different to this strike

and to previous one-day strikes by teachers?

The focus of all the teachers who set off if you minutes ago from

here, several hundreds of them, is mainly about education funding. They

point to figures from the Independent Institute for fiscal in

which show although the amount of money spent on schools is going up,

the amount per pupil is going to fall over the next few years. They

say that is leading to job losses with more expected in the future,

and bigger class sizes. Just a quarter of the new team members

actually voted in the ballot other amongst those who did the support

was overwhelming. Why was it such a low turnout in

terms of the ones who decided to take part in the ballot if there is

such strength of feeling about educating -- education funding?

It is an exceptionally low turnout, there is a dispute with the

Government, and the NAS UWT. Some are waiting for the pay review body

on what they should be paid, to come back.

I understand that could be in the next couple of days, many teachers

will be waiting to see what the offer is from the Government

although we know pay restraint across the public sector remains in

place. There is no doubt some of the

concerns are more widely shared. Initial information from around the

country is quite a lot of schools are open and this strike is quite

patchy. Perhaps some teachers don't feel

motivated enough at the moment to come out on strike on these issues.

One other interesting thing this morning we had BMA junior doctors

representatives who are themselves balloting on their own industrial

action, here in support of the entity.

There was a time when the BMA and a new would have been unlikely

bedfellows. We've been joined by the acting

general secretary of the National Union of Teachers,

Kevin Courtney, and by Toby Young, who set up

a Free School in west London. We also asked the Department

for Education for an interview with a minister, but none

was available. Kevin Courtney, are you playing

politics with children's future as the Education Secretary has said?

Not at all, we are reticulated a demand, we are on strike for our

young people. We are hearing stories of schools were class sizes are

going up to 35, where art, dance, drama teachers are being made

redundant and not replaced, where the subjects on a longer offered in

secondary schools. Where classroom assistants are being dismissed,

where individual attention to children is going down. It is making

life hard for our young people and their headteachers.

Why only 24% of your membership have taken part?

That is a good question, the 92% was a high majority.

Of the 24%. That shows we are on the right issue. It is a big sample. A

lot of people are supporting it. About 6000 people have joined the

union since announcing the strike. It is a low turnout. We want to do

electronic balloting. The fundamental question is teachers

don't think we can win. It is the right issue but they are not

convinced we can win. Let us talk about the funding, these

warnings that spending per pupil, not overall spending, in schools in

England is likely to fall by 8% in real terms.

What do you say? Education is one of the department

that has been ring-fenced. That is the overall envelope.

Along with international and health. The IFS percolated spending on

schools increased by 3% in real terms.

I have asked you per pupil. I want you to answer the question

about per-pupil funding. With your experience at the London free

school, there is an increase in pupil numbers and there are rising

costs. The envelope may be going up, but

not keeping pace with the other costs.

The rising costs are not to do with cuts in the school budget but mainly

to do with increasing obligations on schools to contribute to NI

cogitations and pensions. And the public sector pay freeze which seems

reasonable given inflation is at zero. I accept there will be some

real terms cuts. One thing I would say in response is that there is

very little international evidence to link spending per pupil with

pupil outcomes. The head of the programme for

International student assessment said variation in spending per pupil

only accounted for 20% in variation in pupil outcomes because it mainly

means, the increase, almost double the expenditure on schools since

1997, has meant smaller class sizes. There was no link between pupil

outcomes and class sizes. If we don't have dance, drama, arts

teachers, there will be no GCSEs in those subjects. There is a big link

with exam grades. We are talking about spending per

pupil. If you increase that significantly,

do the outcomes improve? Look at the results in London where

spending per pupil is higher. There is a pronounced link.

Toby is a bright the charges on schools is pronounced, national

insurance and pension conclusions. These school governing body at your

school will have to find her every 20 teachers an extra teacher's

salary to pay back to the Treasury when the Treasury is freezing the

per-pupil money. That is the cause of teachers being sacked, arts

teachers, the cause of last sizes going up. I have heard the argument

class size does not matter, that is not correct. People who pay for

private education are paying for smaller class sizes.

They are being ripped off. When teacher shortage is so pronounced

because of unnecessary workload, if you increase class sizes, you

increase that workload. There is strong evidence from

schools locally to me in London they are struggling to recruit in those

subjects. That is reality. In my school is there a four

squalls, not one, we haven't fired any music or drama teachers, they

are both thriving as departments. I think my main bone of contention

with you is not that there aren't good to be real term cuts... There

is going to be a squeeze. My issue is, when has a one-day wildcat

strike like this ever achieved anything? The NUT is already having

constructive talks with Nicky Morgan, she is really working with

you on reducing teacher workload, she has published three reports, we

know that the strikes never achieve anything, why break off talks on its

going reasonably well? It's not going reasonably well at all. It's

important we are taking action now. The origination of this action

cannot with the break-up of pay and academising across the country. We

have asked Nicky Morgan for evidence that any other country does that,

any other high performing education jurisdiction, none of them have,

Finland, South Korea, Singapore. There is no evidence base. Can you

achieve anything? I think we can. The reason for our turnout being

reasonably low is because members think we can't but we are very

messages of support from thousands of parents, from a group called Mr

Our Schools, parents understand we are raising issues that matter to

them. Tomorrow Sir John Chilcot

will finally publish his report into the UK's involvement

in the 2003 Iraq War. It's a significant moment -

with many people expecting it to provide a definitive verdict

on Tony Blair's role in taking the country to war

against Saddam Hussain. In a moment we'll discuss

the potential impact First though, here's

a reminder of what Sir John What I was saying to President Bush

it is very clear and simple. It is, you can count on us, we will

be with you in tackling this, I was having to persuade him to take

a view radically different from many of the people

in his administration. So what I was saying

to him is, I'm going to be I'm not going to push you down this

path, and then back out when it gets too hot politically,

because it is going to get hot I haven't seen the report, nobody

has, we will know tomorrow. As Sir John Chilcot said, the purpose of

the report was to understand the lessons of Iraq and I think by

general consent, the controversy with hindsight about the invasion of

Iraq has affected... It's almost paralysed our foreign policy since

that time. So I hope that what Sir John Chilcot will do is to, with the

informed benefit of hindsight, be very clear about what kind of

foresight planning we fail to take proper account. I think that again,

I was a member of the Cabinet that supported the innovation because of

all the evidence, what is clear that we were not nearly sufficiently

involved and engaged with planning the aftermath. This is clear and

there is consensus... I think the charge that people like Jeremy

Corbyn and John McDonnell will be looking at is whether Tony Blair had

already decided and agreed with George Bush to go to war. Let me

make a point about that. We have at an earlier discussion about why

Jeremy Corbyn is not standing down and so forth. It is the purpose of

Jeremy Corbyn's life's mission to be able to denounce Tony Blair as of

the criminal tomorrow. That is, I believe, a large part of what he

wants to hang on. I hope that Sir John Chilcot's report will give us

very clear exposition of what happened, interpretation of what

happens, but also will point to the future framing of decisions about

foreign policy, about engagement with governments in supporting

action against the radical regimes and so on -- tyrannical regimes. But

is the future policy for intervention, which has so paralysed

not just our government but governments around the world,

sometimes to the great detriment of countries that might have benefited?

Let's be very clear, Jeremy Corbyn wants to tell Sir Tony Blair that he

is a war criminal. They will be those that oppose him in that. I can

only say they have to have evidence from the report, don't believe that

evidence will be there. Sir John Chilcot has already made clear that

part of his remit is not to judge the legality. We will find out

tomorrow. Now it's time to find out

the answer to our quiz. When Nigel Farage infamously

insulted the then European Council President Herman Van Rompuy in 2010,

what did he NOT accuse him of? b) Having the "charisma

of a damp rag". c) Being akin to a "low-grade bank

clerk". I think he has usually those in

relation to different people! You are right, but which one did he not

attached to Herman Van Rompuy? Didn't he say that he had the

charisma of a damp rag? He did... It was the first one, never have a

proper job. All the others he did a tribute to Herman Van Rompuy.

speech to the President Of The European Council and former

Belgian Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy, Nigel Farage

said Mr Van Rompuy had "the charisma of a damp rag",

was akin to a "low-grade bank clerk", and came

Last week, after the UK voted to leave the EU,

Nigel Farage used a speech in the European Parliament

"Virtually none of you have ever done a proper job in your lives."

Let's take a look at that clip and some other highlights

from Nigel Farage's time at the top of Ukip.

It seems to me that you have given away ?7 million of British taxpayers

money for nothing in return. Use it with our country flag, did not

represent our country's interests. -- use it.

They all look a little bit like goldfish. That have just been tipped

out of the ball onto the floor. Desperately gasping for air and

clinging on to the comfort blanket that is, this is a protest vote.

This is number one! The world's greatest leader!

I am a man of my work, don't Break my word so I shall be writing to the

Ukip National executive in a few minutes, saying that I am standing

down as leader of Ukip. Isn't it funny? When I came here 17 years ago

and I said that I wanted to lead a campaign to get Britain to leave the

European Union, you all laughed at me. Well I have to say, you're not

laughing now, are you? So, with Nigel Farage standing

down as Ukip leader, who will be the next to run

the UK Independence Party We've been joined by the party's

former deputy chairman Suzanne Evans, who is currently

suspended from the party. Did you expect him to stand down?

No, I was surprised but I understand why, the latest in his lifetime

ambition to get us out of the European Union, now we have this

momentous vote which will stand, let's be clear about that. So yes,

out on a high, why not? Most political careers don't and like

that. Will he keep out of the spotlight? I very much doubt it. I

think whoever takes over as leader of Ukip will perhaps believe his

input. Except he clashed with all the major party figures including

yourself, Douglas Carswell, Patrick Fling and Neil Hamilton, will it be

less divisive without him? I think it will. Nigel is a Marmite

character, I think now for the leader, we need somebody who is more

embracing, who shows it's not a one-man and order a single issue

party, and also a party that attracts more women. By looking

behind you, you see, neither did have an all-male team very often.

What about you? You were suspended for the moment, what about you? I

hope the party might overturn my suspension to allow me to stand. I

always said if he stood down I would like to have a go at it and I think

it's a shame I find myself in this position of being suspended,

apparently for criticising a homophobic candidate, not something

most people would think would be a disloyal thing to do in politics, so

I hope I can be on the ballot paper. What is happening in the suspension?

I did appeal, but it became clear early on that the appeal panel had

already prejudge the outcome. When I was originally suspended I wasn't

allowed to put any evidence to the panel to defend myself, I wasn't

even there, it looked like it would be a repeat of the same. So I have

actually withdrawn from that appeal. We shall see. I getting support from

people who want me to be on the ballot paper, e-mails, phone calls,

we shall see. I hope the party does the right thing. And if not EU, who

would you back? I am not going to say, I want to see who puts

themselves forward and what policies, I don't want someone to

take over Ukip and taken to the far right, we need a more common sense,

centre ground party who can afford to conservative voters in the south

and Labour voters in the North. There is your pitch for the

leadership! You heard it here first! Thanks to Tessa Jowell

and all my guests. The One O'Clock News is starting

over on BBC One now. I'll be back at 11.30 tomorrow

with Andrew for live coverage Dip into a summer of

amazing live music,