19/07/2016 Daily Politics


19/07/2016

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Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.

:00:35.:00:36.

Theresa May holds her first Cabinet meeting as Prime Minister and says

:00:37.:00:39.

want social justice to be the primary focus of her leadership.

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After MPs handed Theresa May an overwhelming victory last night

:00:47.:00:48.

over Trident renewal, the Prime Minister's been

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meeting her top team for the first Cabinet meeting since she took

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Jeremy Corbyn was on the losing side of the argument in yesterday's

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debate and Labour MPs lined up to criticise his stance on Trident.

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However, a new poll shows his support is as strong as ever,

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so are his leadership challengers doomed to fail?

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Remainers said it would damage our long-term prospects.

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Leavers said it would provide a boost to our fortunes.

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We examine the impact that Brexit will have on the health

:01:21.:01:23.

And Donald Trump has his moment in the sun

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as he hosts the Republican convention in Cleveland.

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But can he reach out beyond his core supporters?

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With us for the whole of the programme today is the former

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Chancellor of the Exchequer Ken Clarke.

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He recently said that Theresa May was a "bloody difficult woman"

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and that Michael Gove would start three wars at once.

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We would like to encourage that level of candour throughout

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The House of Commons has overwhelmingly backed

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the renewal of the UK's Trident nuclear weapons system.

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The vote approves the manufacture of four replacement submarines

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at a current estimated cost of ?31 billion.

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The vote came after Theresa May, in her first Commons speech

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as Prime Minister, confirmed she would be prepared to authorise

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The vote also highlighted deep splits within the Labour Party

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with more than half of its MPs going against the leader

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Mr Speaker, we have waited long enough.

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It is time to get on with building the next generation

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It is time to take this essential decision to deter the most extreme

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threats to our society, and preserve our way of life

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Our nuclear weapons are driving proliferation, not the opposite.

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Sadly she, and some members of the Labour Party, seem

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to be the first to defend the country's enemies,

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and the last to actually accept the capabilities...

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Is she personally prepared to authorise a nuclear

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strike that could kill 100,000 innocent men,

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And I have to say to the honourable gentleman, the whole point

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of a deterrent is that our enemies need to know that we would be

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We on these benches, despite our differences on some

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issues, have always argued for the aim of

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We might differ on how it's going to be achieved,

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but we are united in our commitment to that end.

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I do not believe the threat of mass murder is a legitimate

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way to go about dealing with international relations.

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For the official opposition to have a free vote on a matter

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of such strategic national importance is a terrible indictment

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of how far this once great party has fallen.

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But what Labour's current front bench are doing is not principled.

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It shows contempt for the public, for party members, and often,

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The possession of the nuclear deterrent may be unpleasant,

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but it's an unpleasant necessity, the purpose of which lies not in it

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ever being fired, but in its nature as the ultimate insurance policy

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against unpredictable future existential threats.

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It is obscene that the priority of this government and sadly too

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many people on the Labour benches, at a time of Tory austerity

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and economic uncertainty following the EU referendum,

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is to spend billions of pounds on outdated nuclear weapons

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but we do not want, do not need and could never use.

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Well to discuss the vote we've been joined by the former

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Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn.

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Welcome. Before I come to you, it was a trick, there was no need for a

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vote at this time, it was only really done to expose divisions in

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Hilary Benn's party? I do not know why David originally chose this

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timing but there is no need for anybody to expose divisions in the

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Labour Party now, they are there for all to see and do the interests of

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clarity, it has probably helped the Labour Party to get over this. It

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was an obstacle in their path. They knew they would have a painful day

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and at least we know where the nation's defences are likely to be

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for the next years, even though we do not have much idea what else will

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happen to the country in the outside world. Labour Party led by Jeremy

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Corbyn who has always been and continues to be against Trident and

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its renewal. The fact he cannot carry the party with him, and there

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was a free vote on what one colleague called key strategic

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issue. That was in the end a pragmatic decision the Shadow

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Cabinet took. Jeremy's position is well-known, he has always been

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opposed to the use of nuclear weapons and I respect his view, I

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fundamentally disagree with it and more to the point, Labour Party

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policy for a long time has been to support the maintenance of the

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nuclear deterrent and we were elected on that commitment and the

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majority of Labour MPs who cast a vote voted to protect the nation's

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security and support the building of the new submarines. What does it say

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about the state of the Labour Party? There was a free vote and the leader

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is against the policy the party is for, it is chaos. It is not

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sustainable. I will be the first to accept that. We need new leadership

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and we will have a leadership contest because we cannot carry on

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with the situation in which the leader of the party and also the

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leader of the Parliamentary party cannot command the confidence of a

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majority of his members of Parliament. Jeremy, he has a mandate

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I am reminded, but it includes to lead the party in parliament which

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he is pay not able to do any more and that is why at this late stage,

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the right thing would be for him to step down. We will have a contest

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and hopefully we will come back at the end of September with a new

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leader. What was the point of a policy review, Labour Party policy

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on Trident. It was agreed at the manifesto it would be in favour of

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renewal, when no one will change their mind on such a key issue?

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Jeremy Corbyn voting against the renewal. The policy review has not

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been completed, it has been delayed. It has been delayed and I don't know

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what is in it because it has not been published. The long-standing

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policy of the Labour Party since we abandoned unilateralism in the 80s

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has been to support the nuclear deterrent and it is supported by the

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major unions, because their members helped to build the submarines and

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it is important we maintain that capacity to protect ourselves. Where

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we agree, and I think Ken Clarke would agree, we want a world with no

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nuclear weapons but the debate is how you get there and Britain giving

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its deterrent up with not persuade other nuclear states in the world to

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do so. There are new threats. Nobody knows what they will be in the years

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ahead and I would not feel safe in a world where everyone had given up

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nuclear weapons apart from North Korea. Jeremy Corbyn has support, in

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his view, against renewing Trident from a large number of Labour

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supporters and one reason is cited is the costs, which is fast. 31

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billion is the government figure that does not include according to

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Caroline Lucas for the Green Party, the costs of maintaining submarines,

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something like ?200 billion. It is not something that can be just

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batted away. You have to face up to it is a considerable cost. Jeremy

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Peace against nuclear weapons being held by this country in principle.

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He came into Parliament during the brief time the Labour Party was

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unilateralists. Every government from Clement Attlee on Buzz has

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favoured the policy we voted for yesterday. -- on the policy. It is a

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dangerous world and not getting safer. By the time we get the new

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submarines, nobody knows how far nuclear weapons may have

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proliferated over the next 30 years. It is a large sum of money and the

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overwhelming majority of people in the House of Commons and I think the

:10:04.:10:07.

public accept it is a cost we have to undertake in order to maintain

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security. What about the commitment to multilateral disarmament? Your

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colleagues said on the face of this legislation that was not there and

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without that there would be no attempt at trying to work towards

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multilateral disarmament? Is that still important? It is important and

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we have seen the benefit of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and

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how it was used by the world to get Iran to give up nuclear ambition.

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That agreement is important. During the last Labour government we

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reduced the number of warheads, a contribution be made. You would need

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local powers to do that. In particular it is those who are not

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signatories that the problem and I highlight North Korea because I do

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not think they are to negotiation. The costs, those who raised costs

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are opposed to a nuclear deterrent in principle. If you go back to

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Clement Attlee's speeches in the 1940s, he said, I know the defence

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of the nation is a cost and it is an expense but it is one we should bear

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because it is important, given the experience particularly the country

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had just come out of, that we make sure we are defended. We know it's

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destructive potential. It is to protect Britain from being the

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subject of an attack. That is the reason we have it and it protects us

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every day with those submarines patrolling around the world. Let's

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talk more about Jeremy Corbyn's leadership. The BBC understands he

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is likely to face a single challenger. The two current

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challengers, Angela Eagle and Owen Smith have apparently reached a

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common understanding However, a new poll in today's Times

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shows that support for Mr Corbyn Our political correspondent

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Iain Watson is outside Labour headquarters, where the party's

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National Executive Committee is meeting to discuss Labour's

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leadership election rules. Have please finally been decided?

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Yes I think they have. The NEC meeting is taking place in this

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building and some are rushing in. It has just got under way. A week is a

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long time in politics. Last week, Jeremy Corbyn was trying to fight

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for the right to be automatically on the ballot and as soon as he won the

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fight he came out here to talk to the media and celebrate and to go to

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a supporters' rally but inside two crucial decisions were made, first

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to increase the fee registered supporters would have to pay from ?3

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up to ?25. Many of them voted for Jeremy Corbyn last year, 100,000 of

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them, and ?25 would make it more difficult to do so and this year

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existing members would have to be party members for over six months to

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get a vote and Jeremy Corbyn was not pleased about that, seeing it as

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anti-democratic. Having spoken to NEC members, a senior member said

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this matter is settled. They said constitutionally they cannot reopen

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this for another three months, after the contest would take place and so

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it looks like Jeremy Corbyn will not overturn the crucial decisions by

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the NEC. As we speak there is a High Court challenge by a Labour funding

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person who wants to take Jeremy Corbyn off the ballot. The first

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stage of the legal challenges held today and it will be held in for one

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week from now. It is still not clear if Jeremy Corbyn has to go through

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the additional hoop of seeking MPs' support to get on the ballot, that

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will be down to the courts rather than the NEC. The wrangling

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continues. I did not realise that would go through the courts and

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could still threaten Jeremy Corbyn being on the ballot paper. If you

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look at the Labour Party membership and supporters, it looks like his

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support is growing according to the latest poll. That is right. A poll

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in the Times newspaper will come a shock reading for potential

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challengers. They are trying to decide among themselves who should

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be the sole challenger. To sort this out either today or at the latest by

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tomorrow, depending on who seems to garner most support among MPs but

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whoever wins according to this poll will be behind Jeremy Corbyn. A

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YouGov poll suggests 54% of supporters would give Jeremy Corbyn

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as first preference. Even if there were three candidates, Jeremy Corbyn

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would be put in top position by a majority of existing Labour Party

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members. There is a suggestion he is either 15, 20 points ahead of his

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nearest rival, depending on who the rival happens to be. Whoever it is,

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Owen Smith, Angela Eagle, they will have work cut out to convince Labour

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Party members. That they should be chucking out Jeremy Corbyn when the

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leadership result is announced in September.

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Iain Watson, thank you very much. Hilary Benn, are you shocked by that

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poll that puts Jeremy Corbyn more popular with Labour supporters? I

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think it's more popular than a poll that was taken three or four weeks

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ago. As I read it last night, it was something like 45% said they would

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definitely vote for him and then there were those who said they would

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probably. He could win again. It is possible. Labour Party members need

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to wake up the position we're in. Jeremy Corbyn has brought ideas and

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up debate... Do you really believe that? I think a lot of people voted

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for him because they wanted to shake things up a bit. That is what

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members have said to me. But I am eating party members who voted for

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him last time, who are now saying that was my motivation but it isn't

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really working -- I am meeting party members. There is going to be a very

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lively campaign and I hope the membership recognises we do need a

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new leader. Why Angela Eagle and not Owen Smith? Angela showed

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extraordinary courage in being the first person to say she will

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challenge Jeremy. Owen Smith has great qualities, too. There is a

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strong view in the Parliamentary Labour Party that we would like to

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see a single candidate challenging Germany. -- challenging Jeremy. We

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don't yet know how the nominations will pan out... But the person who

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garners the most support should be the one that goes forward, whether

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that's Owen Smith or Angela Eagle? I think that the cause of there being

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only one candidate but I won't pre-empt the decision. I'm backing

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Angela. You've resigned from the Shadow Cabinet. I was sacked, Jo.

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You must act, saying Jeremy Corbyn wasn't a credible leader. -- you

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were sacked. What makes you think Owen Smith or Angela Eagle are going

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to be able to unite what is now a completely fractured party? I think

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they have the capacity to do so. On the basis of what? On the basis we

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can't carry on. There is no evidence to show you can unite two sides of

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the Labour Party that fundamentally disagree with each other. We've been

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through difficult times like this before. I'm old enough to remember

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the late 70s and early 80s. It is a difficult time, it some pleasant, we

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are having party meetings suspended because of worries about

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intimidation and that's not a healthy state for any political

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party to be in. I'm sure even Ken would concede, we need a strong and

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effective opposition to the government because that's important

:18:25.:18:28.

for our democracy. I think that if we get a new leader, whether it is

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Angela or Owen, if they are able to beat Jeremy, I think we will begin

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the process of healing the party because I know they will reach out

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to others. I'm afraid Jeremy hasn't reached out and that's part of the

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reason the PLP has lost confidence in him. He says he would like to

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bridge the gulf. It does sound at the moment anybody but Jeremy

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Corbyn, it doesn't really matter to people like yourself what happens

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afterwards as long as you get rid of him. It matters enormously. I want

:19:01.:19:05.

us to be a credible party of government. We cannot just be a

:19:06.:19:10.

party of protest. I would say to Jeremy's supporters, none of his

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ideas are going to come to pass, none of them will be put into effect

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because the public don't see him as a credible Prime Minister. What

:19:19.:19:23.

other policies do you fundamentally disagree with and can't be part of

:19:24.:19:28.

the manifesto under Angela Eagle? I had quite well-known disagreements

:19:29.:19:31.

with Jeremy when it comes to foreign policy and those came to a head over

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Syria. I'll give you an example of two policies I support, the

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re-nationalisation of the railways. It's popular with the public.

:19:42.:19:46.

Secondly, more affordable housing. Jeremy wants to lift the borrowing

:19:47.:19:52.

cap put on local authorities to build more houses. The point is,

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this isn't a dispute actually about policy. It is about Jeremy's

:19:57.:20:03.

capacity to lead. You'll have seen the article Lilian Greenwood wrote

:20:04.:20:07.

yesterday where she set out from her point of view, she said it was to

:20:08.:20:11.

functional. That's why you've seen the vast majority of the Shadow

:20:12.:20:16.

Cabinet resign and that's why you've seen 80% of Labour MPs saying we

:20:17.:20:20.

don't have confidence in him. If Jeremy Corbyn wins, and there is a

:20:21.:20:25.

high probability he will, what then? We'll have to deal with the

:20:26.:20:30.

situation then. I hope that isn't the case... But you must have

:20:31.:20:33.

thought about it, because you made the mistake, not you personally but

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the party made that mistake of not thinking about it carefully first

:20:39.:20:41.

time around. Would you serve under Jeremy Corbyn? I don't think there's

:20:42.:20:47.

any likelihood he would invite me to serve. People have said honestly we

:20:48.:20:52.

don't have confidence in you in that eventuality, to then say they've

:20:53.:20:57.

changed their mind. So it would split the party? The party isn't

:20:58.:21:02.

going to split. If Jeremy Corbyn wins who's going to serve in the

:21:03.:21:06.

Shadow Cabinet? That is a problem for Jeremy to sort out. To be

:21:07.:21:10.

absolutely clear, the Labour Party isn't going to split because it

:21:11.:21:15.

belongs to all of us. Lots of people have devoted their life to the party

:21:16.:21:19.

and it belongs to all of us, not to any one individual or any part of

:21:20.:21:26.

the party. Ken Clarke, one thought on the disconnect between membership

:21:27.:21:29.

and the Parliamentary party. The Tory party have experienced that and

:21:30.:21:32.

under Iain Duncan Smith you could say there was that sort of

:21:33.:21:37.

disconnect. How does that happen? It is obviously dangerous.

:21:38.:21:41.

There are a reduced number of people who join political parties compared

:21:42.:21:47.

to 30 years ago. Our membership tends to be elderly and to the

:21:48.:21:53.

right. There's is young and to the left. They've got a lot more

:21:54.:21:59.

members. Hours are keen on being in government. I think our members

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would have voted for Theresa May. We had only one plausible prime

:22:06.:22:07.

ministerial candidate and I think she would have won easily. They

:22:08.:22:14.

aren't complaining that we shortened the process. This new young

:22:15.:22:18.

membership of the Labour Party, they are radical people of protest. It is

:22:19.:22:24.

a policy thing. I agree with your premise, I want to see the sensible

:22:25.:22:27.

members of the Labour Party emerged with a credible government in

:22:28.:22:35.

waiting. It improves the performance of the government in power once you

:22:36.:22:37.

are challenged properly which we aren't being at the moment.

:22:38.:22:42.

Last night on a train in Southern Germany,

:22:43.:22:44.

a 17-year-old Afghan refugee was shot dead by police

:22:45.:22:47.

after he attacked fellow passengers with an axe and knife.

:22:48.:22:50.

A hand-painted flag of the self-titled Islamic State has

:22:51.:22:52.

since been found in the teenager's room and the IS-linked Amaq news

:22:53.:22:55.

A hand-painted flag of the self-titled Islamic State has

:22:56.:23:02.

since been found in the teenager's room and the IS-linked Amaq news

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agency has claimed the teenager was an IS "fighter".

:23:06.:23:07.

Four people from Hong Kong were injured in the attack -

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Our correspondent in Berlin, Damien McGuiNness, has

:23:11.:23:12.

the latest on this story and the reaction in Germany.

:23:13.:23:15.

What's been the reaction in Germany politically and in the court of

:23:16.:23:19.

public opinion? I think what we can safely say is that this attack is

:23:20.:23:23.

going to have a major impact on German society. That's because as

:23:24.:23:28.

you know, last year Germany Tech in a large number of refugees and

:23:29.:23:33.

migrants. That decision was quite controversial. Lots of people agreed

:23:34.:23:39.

with it and saw it as a good humanitarian gesture. Lots of people

:23:40.:23:43.

disagreed with it and said it wanted destabilise Germany. -- said that it

:23:44.:23:50.

would destabilise Germany. This attack was carried out by a young

:23:51.:23:54.

asylum seeker who came in as part of the wave of refugees and migrants

:23:55.:24:00.

coming here. It's really going to reignite that debate over whether

:24:01.:24:05.

Perlin did the right thing by welcoming in so many refugees and

:24:06.:24:09.

migrants. On the other hand it's also going to put more pressure on

:24:10.:24:14.

Chancellor Angela Merkel because she is facing re-election in a general

:24:15.:24:21.

election next year. We also have regional elections here in Berlin in

:24:22.:24:25.

September. It's going to really have a political impact on the debate,

:24:26.:24:30.

particularly on the one hand to do with the refugee crisis and the

:24:31.:24:35.

government's response, and on the other hand the government's response

:24:36.:24:40.

to security and anti-terrorism measures. It'll increase the

:24:41.:24:43.

nervousness here in Germany that a large attack may at some point

:24:44.:24:49.

happen. It's seen as an individual taking violent action, only 17 years

:24:50.:24:55.

old. But the self-styled IS said they recruited him as a fighter, but

:24:56.:24:59.

it wasn't organised in the way we would perhaps presume if they had

:25:00.:25:04.

had a carefully orchestrated incident like this. That's right,

:25:05.:25:11.

Jo. That's the question right now. The first question was whether this

:25:12.:25:16.

was an Islamist extremist attack, it appears it probably was. There was

:25:17.:25:21.

the IS flagged in his accommodation and the fact that officials have

:25:22.:25:27.

found texts saying that Muslims should take up arms against the

:25:28.:25:32.

West. The second question is whether this was in fact organised by IS or

:25:33.:25:39.

whether he was a lone attacker. Officials in Germany are saying

:25:40.:25:43.

there's no connection they can see between this young man and so-called

:25:44.:25:50.

Islamic State. So far, all the evidence they say is pointing to the

:25:51.:25:54.

fact this was probably a lone attacker. This doesn't make Germans

:25:55.:25:58.

feel more secure because it doesn't mean this was a lone wolf attacking.

:25:59.:26:03.

It's almost harder to prevent something like that because it is

:26:04.:26:08.

such a random attack that you can't foresee. Officials are saying they

:26:09.:26:12.

see no connections with other Islamist groups and they also see no

:26:13.:26:17.

connection official league with so-called Islamic State. It could be

:26:18.:26:24.

that this young man was inspired by IS rather than radicalised directly

:26:25.:26:26.

by the group. This must be the worry that

:26:27.:26:35.

following the tragic events in Nice that individuals saying they are

:26:36.:26:39.

acting on behalf of so-called Islamic State are just deciding to

:26:40.:26:43.

do these things on their own. I agree. It will be a problem for

:26:44.:26:48.

years to come, it's one of the major problems all Western societies are

:26:49.:26:53.

going to face. If IS loses its territory in Syria and Iraq as a

:26:54.:26:59.

result of military campaigns, they will move into this kind of

:27:00.:27:05.

terrorism and there is undoubtedly a crazy mood amongst a fringe of young

:27:06.:27:10.

Muslims that attracts them to this one-off individual massacre of

:27:11.:27:17.

innocent people. It's no good thinking there's a simple way of

:27:18.:27:21.

getting rid of it. You have to improve your intelligence and

:27:22.:27:24.

security, you also have to decide how to mobilise the bulk of the

:27:25.:27:28.

Muslim population, to try to stop this awful influence. The pressure

:27:29.:27:34.

on Angela Merkel will be building, ever since she made that decision

:27:35.:27:38.

that meant that large numbers of migrants and refugees from Syria and

:27:39.:27:44.

other parts of the Middle East came into Europe in Germany, she is at

:27:45.:27:48.

risk politically, isn't she? She might be but that is because

:27:49.:27:52.

extremists and populist groups like to turn into the answer is stop

:27:53.:28:01.

these immigrants coming. They like to pray on these fears. The idea

:28:02.:28:05.

that the solution for Germany is to somehow stop foreigners coming, make

:28:06.:28:15.

sure the people fleeing anarchy and violence in the Middle East and

:28:16.:28:19.

Africa are turned back at our borders, is perverse. The fact is as

:28:20.:28:25.

we know, we've had random items of terrorism, we'll have more I'm

:28:26.:28:28.

afraid although our intelligence services do quite well. We've had

:28:29.:28:34.

British citizens carrying out attacks in London and killing

:28:35.:28:40.

people. Exploiting immigration is just a hardline right-wing

:28:41.:28:44.

exploitation of the understandable worries we have about terrorism in

:28:45.:28:45.

the next few years. The campaign to keep Britain

:28:46.:28:48.

in the EU hoped that their warnings of dire economic consequences

:28:49.:28:51.

if we left would be enough to persuade voters

:28:52.:28:53.

to maintain the status quo. But in the end Project Fear -

:28:54.:28:55.

as it was dubbed by the Leave campaign -

:28:56.:28:58.

failed to convince. So what impact has the decision

:28:59.:29:00.

to leave the EU had We can now say the decision taken

:29:01.:29:03.

in 1975 by this country to join the Common market has been reversed

:29:04.:29:12.

by this referendum to leave the EU. After weeks of campaigning

:29:13.:29:17.

and predictions of disaster from either side, whatever we chose,

:29:18.:29:23.

the result was, to many, unexpected, and came with a truckload

:29:24.:29:26.

of concerns and questions. Having been told by the then

:29:27.:29:31.

Chancellor George Osborne, among others, that leaving the EU

:29:32.:29:34.

would spell financial turmoil, he is no longer in charge of that

:29:35.:29:40.

economy nor in the government that But in one regard he was right

:29:41.:29:43.

and Leave supporters Brexit was always the more

:29:44.:29:46.

uncertain choice, because it And if there's one thing

:29:47.:29:50.

markets hate and react Across the world's markets

:29:51.:29:55.

that morning, sterling fell against the dollar,

:29:56.:30:01.

UK's credit rating was downgraded, the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 fell,

:30:02.:30:07.

as did shares in banks. And the IMF cut economic growth

:30:08.:30:10.

forecasts for the eurozone. Did it mean that Project Fear

:30:11.:30:12.

was becoming Project Fact? Loathe as I am to set up a strawman

:30:13.:30:18.

just to knock it down again, here in the Treasury of course

:30:19.:30:22.

they're watching the UK economy to see whether the vote to leave has

:30:23.:30:25.

had an effect on it. But when you're trying to decide

:30:26.:30:29.

that, it really rather depends If you are a Remainer you will look

:30:30.:30:32.

for evidence they were right, it is all a disaster

:30:33.:30:37.

and it is all going to go wrong. If you are a Leaver,

:30:38.:30:40.

you are going to be looking for evidence that backs up the fact

:30:41.:30:43.

that it was all fine after all. And the truth is it's

:30:44.:30:46.

really too early to tell. Frustratingly, that provides no

:30:47.:30:48.

reassurance for either But as economists who supported

:30:49.:30:51.

Brexit gathered in London last week, they were perhaps

:30:52.:30:57.

unsurprisingly upbeat. Often overlooked is

:30:58.:31:06.

the government borrowing rate Admittedly borrowing rates of many

:31:07.:31:09.

countries are at low levels but it suggests that international

:31:10.:31:13.

investors have not It highlights the fact that the UK

:31:14.:31:15.

Government, if it wanted to, with a new Prime Minister,

:31:16.:31:19.

could borrow incredibly cheaply So when you look at the markets,

:31:20.:31:21.

look at what is happening, as opposed to listening to what

:31:22.:31:25.

people are saying in some respects. Nonetheless, in the world financial

:31:26.:31:28.

powerhouse that is London, there are still signs our referendum

:31:29.:31:31.

decision is having some negative repercussions, especially

:31:32.:31:33.

within the currency markets. Because why would you invest

:31:34.:31:36.

in a country that has yet to work out what its new position

:31:37.:31:41.

is in the normal world environment? But we are not in a normal

:31:42.:31:45.

world environment. We are in a world with almost 0

:31:46.:31:52.

to negative interest rates. We are in a world where growth

:31:53.:31:55.

is at best sluggish. The US could be led by,

:31:56.:31:58.

the first time really in 100 years, by somebody who doesn't believe

:31:59.:32:01.

in international trade and global China, the next biggest economy

:32:02.:32:09.

in the world, is slowing rapidly. Nobody quite knows how much

:32:10.:32:13.

because the official GDP data In a normal world, if this happens,

:32:14.:32:16.

then yes, people would stop Softbank's ?24 billion purchase

:32:17.:32:24.

of ARM will be seized But in the months to come expect

:32:25.:32:29.

supporters of Leave and Remain to cherry pick economic news that

:32:30.:32:36.

chips away at the Joining me now is the former Justice

:32:37.:32:38.

minister and leading Leave Welcome back. Let's look at the

:32:39.:33:00.

data. After the vote to leave, the UK growth forecast for 2016 was cut

:33:01.:33:10.

to 1.9%. Down to door .4% for 2017 and consumer confidence fell at its

:33:11.:33:13.

fastest pace in 22 years with the high street suffering in the wake of

:33:14.:33:21.

the vote to leave, according to a research Society. The warnings of a

:33:22.:33:25.

bomb on to the economy and recession have been proved wrong on the

:33:26.:33:29.

forecasts you just gave me because the suggestion there might be a cut

:33:30.:33:33.

of growth is different from going into recession. Employment is at

:33:34.:33:38.

record levels borrowing levels are good for us and the latest

:33:39.:33:43.

manufacturing index data has been positive and the FTSE 100 and 250

:33:44.:33:48.

are at higher levels than when David Cameron came back with the EU deal

:33:49.:33:53.

in February. Nobody has said there are not short-term risks but my

:33:54.:33:55.

argument would be when we go into the Brexit negotiation and as

:33:56.:34:01.

parameters become clearer and we are clear we will not end up with

:34:02.:34:04.

massive trade barriers, we should focus on managing risk but there are

:34:05.:34:11.

huge opportunities. Let's not talk of it as a damage limitation

:34:12.:34:15.

exercise. Manage the risk and sees those opportunities. It is too early

:34:16.:34:23.

to tell, isn't it? I agree with your commentator. It is silly to look at

:34:24.:34:27.

economic policy and movement in terms of fighting a game that

:34:28.:34:33.

ridiculous referendum campaign when arguments on both sides were frankly

:34:34.:34:36.

painful and rather silly. What you cannot do, my view is you cannot

:34:37.:34:44.

reduce trade links with the market of 500 million people without making

:34:45.:34:51.

yourself poorer. I think there is uncertainty that is causing not only

:34:52.:34:54.

financial markets to go mad. Which they do anyway. We have no

:34:55.:35:00.

investment taking place and falling confidence. The longer the

:35:01.:35:03.

uncertainty goes on more likely we go into recession between now and

:35:04.:35:10.

Christmas. The sooner we end the uncertainty and I agree with

:35:11.:35:16.

Dominik, make sure we do not put new barriers to trade and investment --

:35:17.:35:25.

Dominic Raab. We are going to talk about... All the other things they

:35:26.:35:28.

are arguing about, I would leave that. I would get on with restoring

:35:29.:35:32.

confidence and get people to invest here again by establishing the kind

:35:33.:35:38.

of access the Norwegians have got. There is a recession by Christmas?

:35:39.:35:45.

We were told we would be on an economic cliff edge the day after. I

:35:46.:35:52.

did not say that. He said there would be a recession the day after?

:35:53.:35:57.

I said economic cliff edge. We have not seen that. Look at the Footsie.

:35:58.:36:02.

Let's be clear about the FTSE and the value of sterling. There were

:36:03.:36:06.

falls and it has rallied a little against the dollar and euro. The

:36:07.:36:12.

FTSE 100 later recovered but the FTSE 250 is still below the

:36:13.:36:17.

pre-referendum level. But not below the level when David Cameron came

:36:18.:36:21.

back in February. Businesses from Aston Martin to Amazon have since

:36:22.:36:25.

the result announced new investment in the UK in terms of Aston Martin's

:36:26.:36:32.

Welsh facility and jobs in the UK. I would say there is uncertainty but

:36:33.:36:36.

it is not the doom and gloom predicted. Just before that, on

:36:37.:36:42.

uncertainty, it would be about whether businesses hold on cash,

:36:43.:36:47.

they don't invest. Will that happen because we have to wait at least two

:36:48.:36:51.

years before we know what will come? Two things have happened. One of the

:36:52.:36:58.

causes of uncertainty was about the vacuuming government after the

:36:59.:37:00.

referendum when David Cameron resigned and that has been resolved

:37:01.:37:05.

mercifully swiftly which is one reason why sterling and the FTSE

:37:06.:37:08.

rebounded. And the second thing that has to happen, which we expect by

:37:09.:37:14.

Christmas, is the parameters of the negotiation will be clearer. I hope

:37:15.:37:22.

that that point... There -- it is clear there will not be huge trade

:37:23.:37:27.

barriers. Wait and see the light of the land. It has nothing to do with

:37:28.:37:31.

ludicrous scaremongering preceding the referendum. The ludicrous

:37:32.:37:35.

scaremongering, the idea of a punishment budget, we know what

:37:36.:37:41.

happened to George George Osborne. Balancing the budget at the end of

:37:42.:37:46.

the Parliament has been abandoned. Growth put before deficit reduction,

:37:47.:37:50.

these are positive things? Some things that were said were as daft

:37:51.:37:56.

as the billions of Turks that would flood in if we voted to remain. I

:37:57.:38:02.

stick to the IMF, Bank of England. Mark Carney has been running the

:38:03.:38:12.

shop recently very well. We reported about the institutions. There is a

:38:13.:38:17.

view that many Leave voters felt they were not benefiting from the

:38:18.:38:21.

so-called recovery. We had enough experts. For example, IMF, Bank of

:38:22.:38:27.

England, Mark Carney, the IMF come out with dire predictions. The

:38:28.:38:33.

former chief economist of the IMF, and the committee of the bank of

:38:34.:38:37.

England said it will not be quite as bad as that. What we argued was some

:38:38.:38:42.

political appointees are coming out with rather partisan assessments

:38:43.:38:45.

which their experts do not agree with. Do not attack Mark Carney as a

:38:46.:38:53.

political appointee. Do not interpret the events of the first

:38:54.:38:57.

month as a means of allowing you to make attacks on these institutions

:38:58.:39:01.

made in the first part of the campaign. You got the Euro wrong.

:39:02.:39:12.

Silly populist politics is not the way to deal with a serious economic

:39:13.:39:19.

problem. I scrutinised Mark Carney. Did you accuse him of not being

:39:20.:39:26.

independent? The point I made was when these people came out we

:39:27.:39:31.

looked, for example, Mark Carney, at the Select Committee gave a balanced

:39:32.:39:35.

set of evidence and when he went on the Andrew Marr Show I felt it was a

:39:36.:39:39.

stronger political intervention. You shake your head but compare the

:39:40.:39:43.

evidence he gave to the Treasury Committee. On batch... The serious

:39:44.:39:50.

problem is you will not get major investment in this country. It will

:39:51.:39:57.

not all stop. You will not get the major investment and restore

:39:58.:40:06.

confidence. Rolls-Royce. Gentleman. Until you establish exactly what

:40:07.:40:08.

trade and economic relationships will be. We will discuss that. If

:40:09.:40:14.

you sacrifice some of the axis we have now to the European single

:40:15.:40:17.

market, you will make this country poorer. We are going to talk about

:40:18.:40:28.

it. I want to ask Dominic Raab briefly. You were not on the -- you

:40:29.:40:36.

on the winning side, disappointed you lost your job? More gratified to

:40:37.:40:40.

see Britain take the right decision and I want to see at work and I will

:40:41.:40:44.

support this government and also like Ken Clarke enjoyed the freedom

:40:45.:40:49.

of the backbenchers. Be backed Michael Gove. He is no longer around

:40:50.:40:55.

the cabinet. How big a loss is he to government? One of the great social

:40:56.:41:00.

reformers of our generation so I am sorry to see him go. I will not

:41:01.:41:04.

quibble with the new Prime Minister who has the right to pick a team. I

:41:05.:41:10.

did not bad-mouth anyone through the campaign nor the leadership contest

:41:11.:41:13.

and I will not do it now. You expected probably to be there

:41:14.:41:17.

because people would say you were a leading light in the Leave campaign

:41:18.:41:22.

that was victorious. Very kind, but lots of people have expectations.

:41:23.:41:24.

Politics is a game of ups and downs. One of the big issues as we begin

:41:25.:41:27.

the process of leaving the EU will be what it means for trade

:41:28.:41:31.

with the rest of the world. Those who wanted us to remain

:41:32.:41:34.

in the EU argued the size of the single market is an advantage

:41:35.:41:37.

when striking trade agreements with other countries,

:41:38.:41:39.

while Leave campaigners say the EU is slow at agreeing deals and that

:41:40.:41:41.

Britain loses out from not being able to negotiate

:41:42.:41:44.

our own deals. As well as operating as a single

:41:45.:41:46.

market for trade within the EU, the European Union currently has

:41:47.:41:52.

in place 22 bilateral and five The UK is prevented from signing

:41:53.:41:56.

individual trade deals with other member states or with non-EU

:41:57.:42:04.

countries before it has Brexit Minister David Davis

:42:05.:42:07.

and Trade Minister Liam Fox say they are working towards a leaving

:42:08.:42:11.

date of first January 2019 and that they are already involved

:42:12.:42:17.

in informal trade talks with the aim of having agreements ready

:42:18.:42:21.

to sign on that date. At the weekend Liam Fox said

:42:22.:42:28.

he is "scoping out" deals with a dozen countries and had

:42:29.:42:30.

opened "very fruitful" He cites Australian Prime Minister

:42:31.:42:33.

Malcolm Turnbull's offer to strike a deal with the UK "as soon

:42:34.:42:37.

as possible" as evidence that post-Brexit Britain can be

:42:38.:42:40.

"a beacon for open trade." But others warn that as Britain

:42:41.:42:43.

will be unable to conclude trade deals until it has officially left

:42:44.:42:47.

the EU it may initially have to operate under

:42:48.:42:50.

World Trade Organisation Rules and faces uncertainty over future

:42:51.:42:52.

access to the single market. EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia

:42:53.:42:56.

Malmstrom said earlier this month that the UK cannot begin negotiating

:42:57.:43:01.

a new trade relationship with the EU Dominic Raab is still with us

:43:02.:43:04.

and we've also been joined by Sir Lockwood Smith, New Zealand's

:43:05.:43:11.

High Commissioner in London. Welcome. We were starting to talk

:43:12.:43:23.

about it, we cannot sign deals until we have officially left, that has to

:43:24.:43:27.

be the most worrying thing for British business, the uncertainty

:43:28.:43:31.

you were conceding could set in. I think it is the opposite. We can do

:43:32.:43:36.

the preliminary negotiation and have them ready to go when we leave the

:43:37.:43:40.

EU. Can they be ready to go on day one? You can have informal

:43:41.:43:46.

discussions. People will not invest here to sell cars in Australia or

:43:47.:43:51.

New Zealand. You cannot activate deals because you cannot remain in

:43:52.:43:58.

the single European market and then just let everybody else import into

:43:59.:44:02.

your bit of it. We have to put frontiers in place to get government

:44:03.:44:07.

access. Trade is a complicated thing and those people who have talked

:44:08.:44:10.

about trade negotiations have never had anything to do with them. I have

:44:11.:44:15.

probably heard more rubbish on trade negotiations talked in the

:44:16.:44:20.

referendum than any other subject. Deal with New Zealand, fine but for

:44:21.:44:24.

the time being we are in the single market and we have to work out the

:44:25.:44:28.

basis of what access we will retain to that market. Does Ken Clarke have

:44:29.:44:32.

a point, that should be the priority? We will talk about free

:44:33.:44:38.

trade deals with Australia and Canada but given over 40% of exports

:44:39.:44:43.

go to the EU, is that the priority, securing access to that single

:44:44.:44:48.

market? The referendum was won on taking back control of the economy,

:44:49.:44:52.

laws and borders and the idea we would have free movement and trade,

:44:53.:44:57.

with single market access will not happen. What you said about 40% is

:44:58.:45:05.

right. The gradual share of UK exports of shifted from the

:45:06.:45:10.

continent. Why is that important? Strike more free trade deals, boost

:45:11.:45:14.

jobs at home and cut prices in the shops. That was not my question.

:45:15.:45:21.

What should be the priority? We are not going to trade free movement for

:45:22.:45:26.

access to the single market but there is massive mutual

:45:27.:45:29.

self-interest in making sure we keep that trade going because we have a

:45:30.:45:37.

trade deficit. Why on earth would the French and Germans go into

:45:38.:45:42.

elections in 2017 on a manifesto promising to hike trade barriers.

:45:43.:45:57.

I was the first Trade Minister in the world to sign China up to the

:45:58.:46:03.

World Trade Organisation. I initiated Australia New Zealand...

:46:04.:46:10.

So I know a bit about it. It is complex. One has to be honest. In

:46:11.:46:17.

fact how the UK and negotiates this parting of the ways is hugely

:46:18.:46:21.

important for the world. Because the world needs both the UK and the EU

:46:22.:46:25.

doing well. New Zealand does well when you people do well. With that

:46:26.:46:30.

affect the sort of trade deal you'd be prepared to sign with the UK?

:46:31.:46:37.

We'll work in formerly obviously with the UK. But in fact a couple of

:46:38.:46:41.

things have to happen. First this negotiation with the EU, how the

:46:42.:46:48.

future trade relationship will be. Also at the WTO, the UK has to

:46:49.:46:54.

establish its schedule at the WTO. That may involve replacing the word

:46:55.:46:59.

EU with the UK. All the other members have the chance to have a

:47:00.:47:04.

say in that. These things have to be progressed carefully, wisely and New

:47:05.:47:07.

Zealand is prepared to help whenever we can. It sounds tentative. You're

:47:08.:47:13.

saying you want to see what's going to happen first. We want to help. We

:47:14.:47:18.

think it is not a matter of waiting to see what will happen, we want to

:47:19.:47:22.

help the UK sort out the steps and how to get a really good outcome.

:47:23.:47:28.

It's in our interests. In that sense, there's also talk that being

:47:29.:47:32.

too eager to sign up to trade deals with the likes of Zealand and

:47:33.:47:37.

Australia in formerly, until actually the UK leads the EU, that

:47:38.:47:43.

you will give away too much. There will be too much eagerness to have

:47:44.:47:45.

these deals ready to go that mistakes will be made. I don't think

:47:46.:47:51.

that's the dynamic. I'll see you step negotiating basement protection

:47:52.:47:54.

agreements so I know what it's like to negotiate some of these deals. We

:47:55.:47:59.

should go to countries like New Zealand and Australia. They sell

:48:00.:48:02.

their exports of wine to the UK. We should be going to them, we want to

:48:03.:48:07.

drink more of your wine. That will put the pressure on the French and

:48:08.:48:13.

will be the biggest dampening on the likelihood of trade barriers. We

:48:14.:48:17.

should be doing the same with the Koreans and the Japanese around

:48:18.:48:21.

cars. We should at the same time be going to the business there's an

:48:22.:48:24.

trade fairs across continental Europe and saying, we want to keep

:48:25.:48:30.

buying your goods, we are going to have a more competitive arrangement

:48:31.:48:33.

going forward. Don't let the politicians ruin it. In 2017 there

:48:34.:48:39.

are German presidential elections, are they really going to run on a

:48:40.:48:42.

manifesto of trade barriers that will crush French and German jobs?

:48:43.:48:47.

They make it more difficult to make concessions. The German and French

:48:48.:48:52.

will want to minimise the damage from this but I hope Liam Fox is

:48:53.:48:55.

listening to this is about how we are going to go on. Meanwhile what I

:48:56.:49:00.

really dislike is the idea that of course is the condition of the trade

:49:01.:49:04.

deals is it all depends on our reaching some decision about which

:49:05.:49:07.

people we are going to stop coming to work here, which people will stop

:49:08.:49:12.

coming to be students. We are going to say to the Europeans, we don't

:49:13.:49:18.

want your construction workers, your academics, the students coming to

:49:19.:49:21.

our universities, we are going to put our controls on them. And of

:49:22.:49:28.

course trade is going to be dependent on our agreement first of

:49:29.:49:32.

all. This nonsense has got to be abandoned. But people will have to

:49:33.:49:38.

respond to the vote. We've run out of time but do you think you will

:49:39.:49:41.

sign up a deal the day after Brexit happens? We certainly want to be

:49:42.:49:47.

involved in the informal work but it's got to be done sensibly and

:49:48.:49:51.

wisely and the EU has got to be part of this. It's got to be done in a

:49:52.:49:59.

balanced way with smart minds. On the other side of the political

:50:00.:50:03.

pond, this was supposed to be the week where Donald Trump was anointed

:50:04.:50:08.

as Republican candidate for the presidential election. The

:50:09.:50:11.

Republican Convention Toft Way rather chaotic start. Andrew is in

:50:12.:50:20.

New York and has been across events. Tell us what happened. America went

:50:21.:50:25.

to bed in King Mrs Trump had done a pretty good job. It was a little

:50:26.:50:32.

over scripted but she pulled it off and was getting good reviews in the

:50:33.:50:39.

post-speech analysis. America has woken up to a huge row that a huge

:50:40.:50:45.

chunk of the speech was plagiarised from Michelle Obama's speech to the

:50:46.:50:49.

Democratic convention. They overlapped, the use of words is

:50:50.:50:52.

almost exactly the same. Normally what would happen is that the speech

:50:53.:50:57.

writer would be given a loaded revolver and a bottle of whiskey and

:50:58.:51:03.

simply held off a tall building. The problem is that Mrs Trump has told

:51:04.:51:09.

an American network that she scripted the speech almost entirely

:51:10.:51:12.

herself and she only had to rehearse it once. It's an ongoing row but

:51:13.:51:17.

this being the Trump campaign, in the end probably nothing will come

:51:18.:51:22.

of it. Does anything seem to stick? Does any of it matter? Nothing so

:51:23.:51:27.

far. Other than Mrs Trump last night, it was a collection of beer

:51:28.:51:34.

list celebrities. There was a guy from Happy Days, there was an

:51:35.:51:38.

Italian male model, there will walk on parts

:51:39.:51:48.

from The Apprentice. The attempt to try and stop him from being the

:51:49.:51:54.

Republican nomination petered out yesterday afternoon. It now builds

:51:55.:51:58.

up to his coronation on Thursday night. What we still don't know is

:51:59.:52:02.

how he will reach out beyond his base which was there last night, to

:52:03.:52:06.

the broad electorate that he needs to win. That will be the test he's

:52:07.:52:12.

got to pass on Thursday. What did you make of Rudy Giuliani? He gave a

:52:13.:52:23.

fairly rousing speech himself. It was barnstorming. It was probably

:52:24.:52:26.

the best speech of the night if you like that kind of thing. He was way

:52:27.:52:31.

ahead of the other speakers and it hammered home the theme of this

:52:32.:52:35.

convention that America is unsafe, it will take Donald Trump to make it

:52:36.:52:41.

safe, that Obama has been weak and Hillary Clinton will be even weaker.

:52:42.:52:45.

That was the theme pounded out again and again and again. Not say from

:52:46.:52:49.

its enemies abroad, not save they save from its enemies within. And

:52:50.:52:56.

taking place after yet more police shootings, this resonates with the

:52:57.:53:00.

Republican base. Does it resonate beyond that? That, we still don't

:53:01.:53:05.

know. Is there any evidence that he's reaching out beyond the core?

:53:06.:53:11.

There is. The polls are narrowing in his favour. Mrs Clinton is still in

:53:12.:53:15.

the lead but there's quite a lot of evidence to suggest that the more

:53:16.:53:19.

you talk about law and order issues, the more you talk about toughness in

:53:20.:53:24.

America, the more that connects with a particular blue-collar vote. This

:53:25.:53:28.

Republican party is not the Republican party of old, of the East

:53:29.:53:33.

Coast, of the establishment, of the money, of Wall Street. This is a

:53:34.:53:41.

reinvented workers party. It is increasingly a blue-collar party on

:53:42.:53:46.

the right. The question is, and it's a white blue-collar party. I'm told

:53:47.:53:50.

there may be fewer black delegates at this convention than there were

:53:51.:53:57.

at the 1964 convention when Goldwater was nominated post-civil

:53:58.:54:02.

rights. Mr Trump intends on getting a massive turnout of disillusioned

:54:03.:54:06.

white voters, and there are plenty of those around. Thank you very much

:54:07.:54:11.

forgetting up so early to talk to us. Your cheque is in the post. Yet

:54:12.:54:16.

another 10p. LAUGHTER Now, Ken here is famous

:54:17.:54:21.

for speaking is mind, Indeed he tends to be even more

:54:22.:54:23.

outspoken when he thinks the microphones are off but are,

:54:24.:54:27.

in fact, on. In a recent unguarded moment he

:54:28.:54:34.

described Theresa May as a bloody difficult woman although it doesn't

:54:35.:54:37.

seem to have dented her career prospects.

:54:38.:54:39.

So to honour this Great British tradition of accidental

:54:40.:54:42.

plain-speaking, here's our top five microphone gaffes.

:54:43.:55:07.

Well all these Eastern Europeans that are coming in...

:55:08.:55:09.

About a million British people have gone into Europe.

:55:10.:55:15.

The irony is that what they need to do is get Syria to get Hezbollah

:55:16.:55:56.

His derogatory comments about the three, who are known

:55:57.:56:02.

to have reservations about Britain's links with Europe,

:56:03.:56:04.

is just the kind of political blunder Mr Major could ill afford,

:56:05.:56:08.

The Prime Minister said he'd got threebastards in the cabinet.

:56:09.:56:16.

Mr Reagan was at the ranch preparing for the weekly radio broadcast.

:56:17.:56:23.

Testing the microphone, he made a light-hearted remark that

:56:24.:56:25.

For the networks recorded it and last night broadcasted it.

:56:26.:56:33.

My fellow Americans, I'm pleased to tell you today that

:56:34.:56:35.

I've signed legislation that will outlaw Russia for ever.

:56:36.:56:38.

Those famous gaffes. We're joined by Parliamentary sketch writer for the

:56:39.:56:58.

Guardian. Do they ruin careers best amok not in the case of Ken, for

:56:59.:57:04.

certain. One of the secret sister have first name recognition. I think

:57:05.:57:12.

if you are a Boris, your gaffes tend to be forgiven -- one of the secrets

:57:13.:57:18.

is to have first name recognition. There was a sense that you were

:57:19.:57:21.

saying something that everybody thought was true. You said what you

:57:22.:57:30.

really meant. Absolutely. I went on to compare her with Margaret

:57:31.:57:33.

Thatcher who was also a bloody difficult woman. I think I added to

:57:34.:57:39.

the entertainment of the nation, that was the impression I got. Every

:57:40.:57:44.

colleague I met came towards me laughing because they'd just been

:57:45.:57:50.

watching it. Don't you think it's time politicians learn to be careful

:57:51.:57:56.

around radio microphones? LAUGHTER In the age of spin doctors who

:57:57.:58:03.

carefully micromanage lines, and politicians only saying things

:58:04.:58:07.

they've been told to say by the whips, it is often refreshing to get

:58:08.:58:11.

something of the real person. With your line on Michael Gove, I think

:58:12.:58:15.

you were probably conservative. I think he could fight a war with four

:58:16.:58:19.

or five countries at the same time not just three! Anything you'd like

:58:20.:58:25.

to say to the nation today before we go?! I accept the stricture that

:58:26.:58:32.

Malcolm Rifkind and I have been around far too long to be caught

:58:33.:58:36.

sitting in a TV studio with the microphone on. We are obviously

:58:37.:58:41.

losing a bit of our old professionalism really. Worse things

:58:42.:58:45.

have happened. I don't think heard with those other mega disasters mind

:58:46.:58:51.

was anything other than enlightening the nation of what precisely my

:58:52.:58:57.

views were. Thank you for coming in. Thank you for being the guest of the

:58:58.:58:58.

day. Goodbye. You're coming across as, frankly,

:58:59.:59:01.

ridiculous. You've done an appalling job

:59:02.:59:06.

of selling them online. Erm...

:59:07.:59:12.

I mean, I'm... We're... We're...

:59:13.:59:14.

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