23/09/2016 Daily Politics


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There's just 24 hours to go before the result of the Labour


Whoever wins, can they bring the party back together again?


The Foreign Secretary suggests formal Brexit negotiations


Other Conservatives warn against rushing the process.


You may have missed it, but there was a general election


yesterday in the British Isles - on the Isle of Man.


We'll bring you the result of the vote for members


And we report from a film festival that celebrates workers' rights.


All that in the next hour and with us for the duration,


Sam Coates, Deputy Political Editor at the Times, and Caroline


Wheeler, Political Editor at the Sunday Express.


Let's kick off with the question of when Theresa May will formally


start the process of leaving the EU - the so-called


We think of nothing else here, you know. It is actually not Article 50


of the Lisbon Treaty but a protocol to the Maastricht Treaty. Are you


still with me? Probably not. Last night the Foreign Secretary,


Boris Johnson, suggested it was likely the Government


would invoke Article 50 early The Government is working


towards an Article 50 letter, which, as you know, will be produced


probably in the early That is still a subject


for discussion, but you know, what is clear, I think


to our friends and partners We are not leaving Europe, though


we are leaving the EU treaties. We do want to have the closest


possible trading relationship, and it is very, very much


in their interests to achieve that. The Foreign Secretary's


statement wasn't entirely backed up by Number 10,


though sources just repeated the official line that Article 50


won't be triggered this year. Well, this morning


another senior EU figure, the President of the European


Parliament, Martin Schulz, made it clear he wanted Theresa May


to trigger Article 50 as soon What I'm saying is we had


an exchange of views about the position, the known


position, both sides know. The Government is insisting


that they need more time to prepare the negotiations


because of the complexity of the project to leave


the European Union. On the other hand, we insist


to trigger Article 50 as soon as possible,


because we believe that uncertainty is not healthy,


neither for the economy in the United Kingdom,


nor for the whole political system Mar stin skulls of the European


Parliament - Martin schuss. Our Ellie is in


Downing Street for us. Boris ju Johnson just said what is


the working assumption in Westminster, it is some stage


between the beginning of the new year and Easter, Mrs May will


trigger article 50. That's what we expect, isn't it? Yes, a will the


seems to have made of this this morning. But as you say, I think


this is kind of what we were all working on anyway. There was that


mild slapdown from number ten from Mrs May's spokesman when she pointed


out it is Mrs May's decision when Article 50 is triggered and she will


only make the decision when it is in Britain's interest. But what Boris


Johnson said is essentially what everyone has been working on. It is


worth looking back to what it means. We keep talking about Brexit being


like some kind of divorce between Britain and the EU. If Brexit is


indeed the divorce, Article 50 is the bit with the lawyers, the


deciding who gets the CD collection and who gets control of the dog. Now


we have the control, we have the control of when to trigger Article


50, but when it is triggered it will take three years, so the decree


absolute will be two years after Article 50 is triggered so. There


been people in the Conservatives, Dominic Grieve saying - don't rush


it, we need it make sure that Britain is in a state of


preparedness before you get to the two-year trigger. There are others


who say - get on with it. Don't forget, Britain remains a member of


the EU all the time it is in the negotiations, during Article 50, at


which time it can't negotiate with any other trade deals T can't enter


into any other relationship with others outside the EU, who may want


to enter into trade agreements. We'll leave it there. There is a


vacuum in British politics at the moment, because the Government won't


give us any details of its timetable or negotiating position. There is a


danger when people say something, that is innocuous, we build it into


a huge event - Boris Johnson goes off piste, knocked down by Downing


Street. It is Much Ado About Nothing, I would suggest. It is


number ten's strategy at the moment. Ultimately, the main thrust of it


all is not to reveal our cards at all as to where we are going. Lots


can change within a very short space of time. We have seen it again with


David Davis not long ago where he suggested it would be improbably for


us to stay within the single market and that got a mild rebuke, again


from Downing Street. They do not want to say anything about Brexit or


the timetable until we get to a position that we are on the cusp of


doing it. Simply because they don't want a long-running commentary which


they think will keep the instability up in the air about what we are


doing. But David Davis got mildly knocked back for stating the


bleeding obvious. If we are not going to fall under the European


Court of Justice - which determines single market arguments - and we are


not going to have the freedom of movement that they have now, ipso


facto, we can't be full members of the single market. I mean what is...


What bit is wrong in that statement? That seems to be where we are


heading but what is fascinating and to my mind a little disturbing about


where we are right now, is that the Government is shutting down a debate


on where we go next. It is possible to have one, George Osborne gave a


speech this mornings sort of kicking it off. You have to make a choice in


the way that Brexit unfolds in the coming months. The choice has to be


- do you in the end put the interests of the economy first? Or


do you, perhaps, say that it is more important to deal with migration,


the thing that many people think they voted on? In his speech this


morning, George Osborne said he thought it was more important that


the economy doesn't contract in the coming years but it feels to me that


Theresa May has taken the decision is that the most important thing she


has to do, the thing she was thwarted from doing all the way


through the coalition years from the Treasury, is tying action to make


sure you can reduce net migration numbers. And I think we have to have


a healthy debate about the consequences of that and the options


available to us and we are not doing that because no Government minister,


those people with the biggest mega phones are able to talk about it. So


I think we are in a weird position where Downing Street stamps


everitime somebody says something. In this case, it is an innocuous


thing, the Trigger of the Article 50. It is early days and there is a


Tory Party conference coming up. They'll have to talk about it there.


Martin Schulz says he wants Britain out, sometime by 2019. That's not


controversial, that's almost exactly the Government's timetable. If Mrs


May triggers Article 50 say by March of next year, which is when I think


it'll be roughly then, then a two-year process which takes you to,


oh, March 2019 when it all comes to a halt. So, they are on the same


side on that timetable? They are. There has been some speculation that


there could be some delay because of the election wris taking place in


mainland Europe but ultimately, as we said, I think what he said, as


you said yourself, is fairly innocuous and probably pretty


accurate but it isp wanting to maintain some kind of control on


this. They have a whole day of talking about Brexit on the first


day of the Conservative Party Conference. She is speaking twice.


What will happen on the second day? Well you have all the Brexiteers


speaking on the Sunday. They will have to say something. They will, no


knows, maybe she will surprise us. And you can see the full


interview with Martin Schulz on the BBC News Channel


at 5.00pm this afternoon. We are getting breaking news that


Jim O'Neilll has resigned from his UK Treasury post. You probably


haven't heard of him. He used to be the former - he was the Chief


Economist at Goldman Sachs investment bank. I think he was the


one that invented the acronym, BRICS, Brazil, Africa, Russia,


India, China. He got a job in the Government, I


think it is an unpaid job, because he is rolling in it anyway. He was


made an elected member of the Upper House and involved in a number of


things, including the northern powerhouse. He has resigned, any


idea? His job was two things - to nurture the northern powerhouse and


ensure that relations with China were smooth T looks like Theresa May


isn't terribly keen on either of them. Although she just about has


used the phrase northern powerhouse and brought herself to say... She


used it four times, there was an article in the Manchester Evening


News. But other ministers have talked about the Midlands Powerhouse


and some aides in depreet thought to be going around saying - I think


George Osborne's northern powerhouse looks like amounting to two or three


towns and we think that feeling, that it wasn't important s one of


the reasons he has gone. If you hadn't heard of him before, now he


has resigned, you probably will hear of him.


The question for today is who did former Shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls,


Was it: a) His Strictly dance partner, Katya?


At the end of the show Caroline and Sam will give us the correct


The result of the Labour leadership ballot is due at around


But while we've got just under 24 hours to wait,


all sides of the party appear to have already accepted that


Jeremy Corbyn will remain Labour's front man.


said this week that whoever wins the leadership on Saturday,


the party needs to "put the band back together."


So, if Jeremy Corbyn is re-elected, can the Labour Leader get his MPs


all singing from the same song sheet?


He needs to fill more than 60 unfilled posts


Owen Smith has already said he is going solo


and will not serve in a Corbyn Shadow Cabinet.


Chris Bryant, one of Mr Smith's supporters have urged party


colleagues to play their part in reuniting the party with real mag


nap imity. has already said she


would return if asked. More MPs may serve if Shadow Cabinet


elections are reintroduced - Chief Whip, Rosie Winterton,


is co-ordinating further talks between Mr Watson and Mr Corbyn


after Labour's National Executive could not reach an agreement


on the matter earlier this week. 29% of Labour member supporting Owen


Smith have told one Sawyer vie that they would leave the party if Mr


Corbyn is re-elected. But whatever happens, Labour has a uphill tax


task to get to number 1 in the polls.


Speaking on Question Time last night, Liz Kendall -


who stood for the leadership this time last year -


said she won't be joining Jeremy Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet.


I disagree with Jeremy on many issues, particularly around


defence and our membership of things like Nato.


I think it is very important that Labour remains


You know, whoever is elected, I don't think that I would put


myself forward to serve in the Shadow Cabinet.


We have some great people who can take the fight to the Tories,


but we also need, I think, to do some serious long-term thinking


about the future of our party and what we have to offer


to the country, and that is what I will be focussing on over


We're joined now from Middlesbrough by Andy McDonald, a member


of Jeremy Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet, and in Liverpool by Richard Angell


from Progress, Labour's centrist pressure group.


Let me come to you, Andy MacDonald. Is there not a danger that new a


position, now, that the more support Mr Corbyn gets in the Labour Party,


and nobody can be in any doubt of the support he has got from Labour


members - but the more support he gets there, the less support he


seems to get among Labour voters in the country?


By the time this is done and dusted we will have a united Labour Party


presenting our proposals to the electorate. I think they will prove


to be very popular, what we are not helped by is when the party is


divided and at each other. We have seen a poll out this morning, that


more than 50% of people who voted Labour in 2015 and who backed Brexit


in June, now say they won't vote for Labour any more. It's a big number,


several million. Those are big number, but I think


over the weeks and months ahead we will see that begin to change,


because there is no doubt about it, there is a real appetite within the


Parliamentary Labour Party for people to come together. We may not


get everybody Tetley signed up and supported, but a great number of


members of Parliament are wanting to serve and take the fight to where it


should be, which is with this Government. I think those numbers


will change over the period ahead. They could change after the


election, we will have to watch and see. I don't quite detect the


appetite nor for everyone to come together. There are a number of


leading the Labour MPs who are saying they will not serve in Mr


Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet even if he is reelected by a big majority, as


the boundary changes get under way, we are going to be looking to see


how many deselection attempts there are, that is not the kind of


environment to heal division, is it? No, but you have to is that right


that process of healing the ethe vision, it is vitally important we


do that. I take your point, that there are a number of people who


said they won't in any circumstances, but I think that may


change, once people see we have that unanimity of purpose, we saw that


being led by Angela Raynor opposite the Grammar School debate. We were


as one on that issue, and I think when Labour comes together like


that, it can be a very forceful voice in British poll tuck, so I


think people will be attracted to that and slowly we will see our


fortunes rise in the polls and any of the elections that come along, I


am confident that is what will happen. Richard, if Mr Corbyn is


comfortably re-elected, perhaps on a bigger margin than he won last year,


what should centrist Labour MPs do? Well, all centrist members of the


Labour Party should stay, should be forthright about what they believe


our party should do going forward. We are united about why the Tories


are wrong, what we have to do is have the debate about why we are not


just an alternative, we could replace them. That is what I fear


that isn't there as part of the Corbyn project. How many debates do


you need? Need? You have had two leadership contests in the space of


a year? The debate doesn't end with a leadership question, that is just


about who leads us as the front, but Jeremy Corbyn has got to outline his


very serious plans about how he will aim to get more votes than his Tory


point, how he will not just have the best lines in Parliament to oppose


them, which we are yet to see coming forward but a real plan, for not


just policy agenda but alearntive government that can replace the Tory


Government. Isn't the danger the more you talk to yourselves and go


on about endless debate and discussion the more the country is


switching off? Agree, I want to be on the doorstep. You called for more


debate. Because we are in the wrong position. You talked about how many


voters we are losing, 2.5 million have abandoned the Labour Party. I


used to have to go and argue about why we needed to win votes off the


Tory, we are having to win back people who recently voted Labour.


That is how big the change is, if Jeremy Corbyn doesn't show he wants


to bring people in and take them onboard, end the abuse, lots of


party members who campaign for Andy McDonald will wake way and say this


party isn't for them. Was it not a huge mistake for like minded


centrist Labour people like yourself, to challenge Jeremy Corbyn


and have another leadership contest only a year after the first one,


that you just, you have lost another summer talking to yourself, it was a


huge mistake to challenge Mr Corbyn wasn't it. That was way above my pay


grade. You were in favour of it even if you are paid tuppence.. It is a


fair point none came with sufficient ideas, organisation or the ability


to convince people. That is something we have to continue to


work on going forward. You can't take any other view if you lose your


ideas weren't that good enough currently when the leader of the


Labour Party's priority is to raise money for the stop to war coalition


not the Labour Party it's a real challenge and you have to focus them


back on the core business, which is helping councils getting elected.


Focussing on staying in the EU, which we failed at. I think that


ship left the harbour on June 23rd. So my point is it did because we


were insufficiently up for the challenge. If you look... No, no,


you have had a good say, I am going to bring Andy back in, in here. On


the European issue, your constituency voted 66% to leave. Do


you therefore go along with that, or do you try to find some ways to have


another referendum, or do you respect the votes of your


constituency? Well of course you represent them. They were angry at


the stay to us Quo and they made that very clear to when I was


knocking on door, they were furious about the lot they had been dealt,


and they saw it with SSI at Redcar when the Government walked away and


abandoned the steel industry. They were hitting out. I could understand


that quite rightly. People in my constituency felt they had not had a


good deal from the Government. I had anti-David Cameron sentiments on the


doorstep, that was translated in a vote to leave the ow. We have to


listen to people. So... As understand by me. What does it tell


us about the mood in the Labour Party, that the, that the party


staff of Labour, from their headquarters, have had to be given


advice on dealing with violent and aggressive behaviour at the Labour


Conference, one Labour MP, a Jewish Labour MP is worried she is taking a


body Bard to the Conference, what does it tell us the about the mood


inside your party? Well, think it tells us that this is totally


unacceptable. The abuse that is going on. I don't think that the


vast majority of people within the Labour, we are now 600,000 people,


they are good despeedget, not offence Si and rude. Why has


headquarters felt it necessary to issue this advise, I have been


covering conferences since 1973. I can nerve remember advice being


given to deal with a violent and aggressive behaviour at the


Conference. I think the mood has changed. I look to social media. It


seems to be the modern equivalent of road rage, people seem to be free to


say what they like on Twitter. I have had the most horrific things


said to me. It is not acceptable. What is going on when people feel


free to use if most foul language, people should have respect and


manners, and that applies within the Labour and outside. That is a modern


expression of how we go about our business, and I for one don want any


part of it. Well, perhaps the advice won't be required in the end in


Liverpool. We will see. Andy McDonald. Richard Angell. Both of


you, thank you. You begin to put the party back together again but there


is now going to be a struggle for the soul of the NEC, there will be


more talk about deselection as the boundary changes gather, and I sense


that quite a lot of the centrist Labour MPs won't join Mr Corbyn's


Shadow Cabinet again, so it is possible that the divisions and the


sense of Civil War will continue, is it not? I think that is inevitable.


When you talk to former members of the shadow cob net they are at a


loss at the moment. There has been talk about this co-existence which


we have seen to a certain extent, in the run, silence behind Jeremy


Corbyn as he goes forward to do PMQ, it seems they may continue. That is


worrying because ultimately they are the opposite and we need to have a


united opposition, everyone when we have a Conservative Government with


a relatively small minority, they need to challenge the decisions that


are come up with. We seem to be in a position where the glass roots are


in search of a new political party and the political party is in search


of a new grass roots. How does that work itself out? It doesn't, does


it. There are, there is a binary choice for many people who oppose


Jeremy Corbyn back in June, early July and called for him to go. You


stay on the outside or crawl cockroach like back in to the


centre, the story of the next few days will be that. It won't be the


people who would be out staying out, but those people who decide to


swallow their pride and get involved with Jeremy Corbyn and sit round the


table with him. We could see a few people. There is a desperate attempt


by team Corbyn to phone people up and say you can have whatever job


you want if you come back round the table. It only needs five or six to


allow Jeremy cover to say look, they have come back to me, forget about


those who won't, but there have been some who signed back up. It will be


an continuing story when Parliament comes back.


We have to get through the Labour and Tory conferences first.


And you'll be able to watch the results of the Labour leadership


contest live on BBC2 from 11.00am tomorrow in a special programme


hosted by Victoria Derbyshire at the party conference


When was the last general election in the British Isles?


No, it wasn't the 2015 election which gave David Cameron


It was, in fact, yesterday, on the Isle of Man.


Last night a record five women were elected to the Manx parliament,


as a new generation swept into the House of Keys,


Half of the parliament's 24 members are newcomers -


We can speak to Radio Manx presenter, John Moss, who has been


following developments over night there.


Thank you for joining us, briefly tell us how the political system


works, the House of Keys equivalent to the House of Commons? First of


all, yes, it is the equivalent, there are 24 members, and boundary


reorganisation this time has meant that there are 1 individual areas or


constituencies, and each areas has two MHKs and that was the process


that happened last night. There is also, I understand, there is an


upper chamber as well, which scrutinises legislation, but that is


appointed by the House of Keys? It is. It is called is legislative


council. It is a tourist -- three chamber system. You have the House


of Keys, the House of Keys decide who is goings to it is on the


legislative council. It has nine member, once a month they.


Co-together at the tin wold. This is the Parliament that goes back to


Norse times and they come together, and they are the one that have the


final said, say. So we have 24 members in the Keys and and nine in


the upper chamber. They come together once a month. Why has there


been a change of personnel this time? We get the feeling a lot of


new blood has arrived in the House of Keys, what has prompted that?


Yes, there is a bit of political blood on the floor, a few members


decided to give up their political careers and retire, including the


chief minister Alan Bell, he has been chief minister for the last


five year, they have been very tough years we have a VAT agreement with


the UK and after renegotiation about a third of the income was taken off


the Isle of Man, so great deal of slimming of departments had to go


on. The search is not just for new members but someone to lead them in


a new government. Now, as I understand it, foreign and defence


policy is a matter for Westminster. But on most or nearly all domestic


matters that is a matter for the house of key what have been the


issues in this campaign, what have been people arguing about and


debating? It is very much domestic issues on the doorstep. The Isle of


Man is facing a dam closes sword as other countries are in its Pensions


Bill, the legacy from previous years, we have an enormous bill


outstanding, unless we do something about the pensions and there is a


lot of debate about how best to do that, the obvious answer is to get


people to retire earlier and also to give more money, but this is not a


popular decision. I guess you could put taxes up, they are very low


there. Yes, but it's a great draw for what the Isle of Man does. There


is various taxes we don't have over here which made it attractive and


which the Isle of Man has lived on since it decided to go for the


financial areas around about the 60s and that is how the island had the


good years up to about eight years ago when the renegotiation of vat


took place, and suddenly, the Isle of Man was having to struggle to


find income to pay for the good time, the things it had been able to


give the people. That is the source of discontent because a lot of


things have had to be taken away. Thank you very much. We'll leave it


there for now. Next, a row is under way


in the Scottish Parliament after the Scottish Labour leader,


Kezia Dugdale, failed to vote against a key


SNP policy yesterday, handing the SNP government


a victory on a key bit Kezia Dugdale has blamed a technical


problem with the electronic voting system in Holyrood but officials


say they couldn't find Our correspondent, Andrew Black,


is across the story Andrew, tell us what happened? Well,


this was all about a debate yesterday in the Scottish


Parliament, on the issue of council tax, which, in itself is a


controversial long-running issue in Scotland. The way that the Scottish


Government wants to deal with the council tax issue is by essentially


making people in the higher banding areas pay more council tax money.


Yesterday these proposals were being debated and it looked like the


Scottish Parliament was going to vote for a Conservative debating


amendment, which stated that these proposals would undermine local


democracy. What happened was, when it got to a vote there was a tie N


that situation the Presiding Officer of the Scottish Parliament is


supposed to use his casting vote to vote for what he thinks is the


status quo. So, on that occasion, the Conservative amendment fell.


Now, at this point nobody really knew what was going on and unlike at


Westminster, there is an electronic voting system at Holyrood, where


they press a button and the vote is tramsmitted instant lane once the


voting records were released, it became clear that Kezia Dugdale


looked like she hadn't voted. Now, only one of two things happened here


- either the electronic voting system didn't work properly or that


Kezia Dugdale didn't vote. Scottish parliamentary authorities say they


checked and there is nothing wrong with their electronic voting system.


Kezia Dugdale says she actually voted. So I suspect it is one of


these things we'll never really get to the bottom of. But the more


interesting thing, is really that the fallout here - now, in reality


SNP Scottish Government is going to have to change its council tax


policy. Because it is a minority government and it needs to get the


plans through with opposition support, potentially. But, I think


the other issue is that Kezia Dugdale, really and Labour in


Scotland don't have their troubles to seek at all at the moment. And


instead of it being an embarrassment for the Scottish Government, which


they thought it was going to be, it has resulted with Labour ending up


with the red faces on this occasion. Fascinating. We will leave it there.


Thank you for joining us. For those who want electronic voting in the


House of Commons, I guess that's just set you back a little bit.


If you fancy yourself as something of a political boffin -


or you'd like to become one - stay tuned.


Two leading political experts have put together a new book,


which chronicles the 50 things you need to know about ...


Ellie has been genning up on the insights and intel in Sex,


Lies and the Ballot Box, to make the following public


This is a public information broadcast from the Daily Politics on


how not to be wrong about politics. Please pay attention. The


by-election catches the political eye of Britain. When a general


election is announced, politicians keen to win votes spend weeks boring


people - I mean informing the public about why they should vote for them


I'm Donald, I'm the Liberal canned day. I hope you are going to support


me. To the average man and woman, this makes sense but it's wrong.


According to clever people, known as Political Boffin, the election


campaigns don't count. Usually it's the party ahead in the polls in


January that goes on to win. The manifesto which we published today,


the Conservative Party manifesto. I'm sure you are an awfully clever


person and you know to take election promise was a pimple of salt. Well


you might be too smart with your own good. Research


implement four the fifths of their manifesto, so they are worth where


the paper they are written on. You know the sort. Can't decide what to


choose on a menu or who do vote for. Politicians spend a lot of time


chasing their vote Getting on for a 3% swing to Labour. That means


people in every 100 switching from Conservative to Labour and getting


on for a Labour majority. Maybe they shouldn't bother. There are more


swing voters than ever but there are fewer marginal seats than there used


to be. Unless these newfangled boundary changes jungle things up


again, of course. Being British, you will be very #2rd in the weather. We


used to think that voters were like bears. They only come out in the


spring and summer. Well that might have been true but now it makes no


difference when an election is held. Plucky voters pay no heed to


inclement weather. Democracy, better than any umbrella. Final thought.


Try to imagine a caricature lefty. Are they naive, happy, claply, let's


all get along types? What about a right-winger, do you think of angry


people? Well that just shows how much you know. The boffins say the


left-wingers are more I will tolerant of different political


views and right-wing people are the happiest. Now I've corrected your


wrongly-held opinion. You can use your knowledge to impress people in


a variety of social settings. You're welcome.


Our Ellie and she has not been able to throw that voice since she did


the voiceover. She is going to sound like that for now. And Philip Cowley


has joined us. What is this business about campaigns don't matter. What


is the evidence? If you look at the last 14 general elections. Party


ahead in the polls in January went on to win the election when it was


held. The two in 12 of those 14 case, the only 12 exceptions, one is


the last one, 2015 when we know the polls were wrong all along anyway


and the other one is October 1974, you cannot go back to the reaction


in January, because there was a reaction in February. It doesn't


mean campaigns don't matter at all but it means they don't matter as


much as we think. If you want to know what determines the way


elections come out, you should look at what happens two or three years


before the election, which is when the action takes place. Hard to


argue that the campaign won't matter in the Trump-Clinton presidential


race, isn't it? Well, a, those 14 are all British. I am not making a


digs stinks from the US. But the same thing is broadly true if you


look at most US presidential elections, most of the action


doesn't take place in the months or years before the election, it takes


place two or three years' more. This season may different. Let's wait and


see. So you are basically wasting your time covering election


campaigns and your readers' time, even more importantly. Yes, what


Phil seems to have done is written political journalism out of the


script here and suggested there is something pointless about it. Look,


I think there is a very good point here. I suspect that voters - I


think the greatest way of working out where a investigator is going to


land is talk to them in January, February before an election and hear


what slogans and impressions they have of a political party. People


don't change their minds particularly quickly on politics. We


like to think they do. We cover the soap opera fwhems you about people


get an impression, a long of had term economic plan was a phrase


before the 2015 general election, which seeped into the wider public.


I think "take control" was a phrase that really made an impression in


the public bfrted EU referendum. I think those kinds of things take a


long time, so the last manufacture minute ups and downs and coach


journeys and battlebuses and flights and leaflets probably only seek to


reinforce a little bit around the margins in the final days, as fun as


it is to watch and cover them. You highlight this rather peculiar


phenomenon in Britain, that there are more swing voters than ever,


probably because of the breakdown of tribal party loyalties. But fewer


marginal seats? Swing voters is almost election on election, if you


look at the number of people who changed their votes between the


elections, going back to 1964, it is basically an joup ward line. But


those voters, however, many of them in seats that will not change hands


because the political geography of Britain initially separated north


and south and as it separated north and south, so you cre aid sfrong


holds for each party and more recently you have had the collapse


of the third party who was challenging, which has also created


stronger - so in 2015 fewer marginal seats between Labour and the


Conservatives than any election in post-war history. Do the boundary


changes coming up change or enforce that trend? In so far as we can


tell, and we don't obviously yet have the Scottish ones and we don't


yet know whether they will be imposed in the form that they have


been discussed, it makes very little difference. One of the surprising


findings which we like to think that this country is increasingly diverse


and progressive and tolerant and so on, is that a parliamentary


candidate's race affects their electoral chance. Could you spell


that out for us? By a couple of percentage points. Non-white capped


dates suffer and Muslim candidates, in particular, suffer. You can see


this, both just by looking at how they perform, but you can even just


look at it by doing analysis of people's names. Candidates with


non-European sounding names, non-British sounding names, perform


worse in local elections and in general elections the difference is


about 2 or 3 percentage points. The average sn.s doesn't flit other way.


White candidates standing in an eted nickically diverse area do not South


same. Does that surprise you? It does. But if you think of the


ethnicity of voters, actually the ethnicity of voters can impact


general election results because they are more likely to be swing


voters and less entrenched political patterns of the way they vote. I


think it is fascinating that somebody's name, for example, would


actually influence a particular seat Even where they are on the ballot


paper. It is better to be near the top of the paper than the bottom.


Some voters doesn't read all the way down. You are much better off being


called Bates than Yates, standing for election. I'm sure Mr Yates Or


AlanEd a vak. He has a good chance. Mr Corbyn puts great store in the


number of young people joining the Labour Party and attracted to his


way of doing politics. Is it sensible to put your faith in young


people? With the caveat that quite a lot of conventional wisdoms have


been overturned in the last three or four years when it comes to


electoral behaviour, I would say one of the conventional wisdoms are A,


non-voters don't tend to vote and B, young people don't tend to vote. So,


putting your electoral hopes on nonvoting young people is a


potentially very risky electoral strategy. Right. I put that as


politely and neutrally as I can. I understand. I noticed the way you


were tip-toeing, tap-dancing around the thorny subject. According to


research we found in your vote, right-wing people across Europe tend


to be happier and enjoy their sex life most. How did you find that


out? They report higher levels of satisfaction with their life. They


could just be lying and they could have lower expectations. It is the


other possibility. It is people on the far right who are happiest, not


just in Britain but across the four other European countries that are


surveyed. They are happiest more in general and with their sex life T


could be that they have lower expectations either in general or


between the sheets and that those expectations are, therefore,


fulfilled. Would that be your experience? All I could say is if


you try to get the ethical approval to do that very much at universal


you would be given short shrift, I would think. You seem to be getting


money for any other kind of research. Left-wing people less


likely to date across the political divide. I can definitely believe,


that actually. I have seen friends, particularly when I was younger at


university, say they would never data Tory and vice versa and never


do it the other way but more Labour supporters saying that. Saw the


Never Kissed A Tory stick. There is no right-wing equivalent. People on


the left are more accepting. Let me see the book. It is called More Sex


Lies And the Ballot Box. Have you done that already? I did and I came


on this programme to talk about it. When you do this job your brain is a


sponge. No, not a sponge because it would retain, what is it a colander?


Anyway, there it is, More Sex Lies and the Ballot Box? Who is the book


for? For the nerds and I noticed the introduction, people who like swig


op terse and exit polls but for people who think elections are


boring and we want to show them they are not. Well you have come to the


right place now I have given it a plug, do I get to keep it? You do.


Corruption in action, live on air. Now, a festival of Labour


culture is taking No, I don't mean the Labour


Conference in Liverpool. I'm talking about the London


Labour Film Festival. Movie-goers in London can


munch their popcorn in front of one of 18 films the organisers have


chosen for their cinematic Mark Lobel has been to see


what's on the big screen. Last night the Labour Film Festival


opened just around the corner from Jeremy Corbyn's house in north


London. No champagne socialists here,


I was assured it was Prosecco. So, what are the main ingredients


for a festival of film One of the reasons why this cinema


is quite important to us is because they pay


the London living wage here. I have been looking out for this,


because as a trade unionist I'm interested in films


about working people and that's I think it's great to


have a festival that showcases films, which actually


challenge the status quo. Challenge the justice,


give a platform to, you know, issues which otherwise are often


ignored or marginalised. It is a fantastic and I think quite


inspiring film festival. With so much online now,


having a cinema where people can come and hopefully have respectful


debates amongst themselves, face-to-face, it is quite a nice -


it sounds old-fashioned doesn't But I think it is nice


to have that forum, really. We are a global network


of film festivals. We meet every year and share


ideas for film festivals. There is a film festival


in New York, San Francisco and also Kicking the festival off,


a BAFTA award winning true story hones in on an emergency


call centre operator. Now, listen, listen,


I need you to stay where you are. They are on their way


and they are trying No, I need you to stay downstairs


or you will put yourself We had a death in Camden last year,


in the last 12 months, a really unfortunate incident


where our target times to get to any So if you pick up the phone,


there is a fire in your house, you should expect a fire engine


to be there within six minutes. The fire engine took 13 minutes


and that's because the nearest fire Are you here for the opera


or the Labour film festival? I wanted to see the


Michael Moore film. Better than live opera,


tonight's main event, Michael Moore's European travelogue


in search of social Student debt isn't just a problem


in the US but over here, too, as award-winning director


Ken Loach's new UK film I was literally struggling


so much at university. I didn't know what was going on,


like, if I was going to continue. But, sadly, none of these movie


aficianados I spoke to had seen the Labour Leader's


leading role online. Ah, well, there is always next


year's festival, I suppose. And we've been joined


by Anna Burton, director of the London Labour Film Festival,


and by Peter Whittle, Anna, what would you regard or what


are generally regarded as powerful British left-wing films? First off,


the London Labour film festival is about work, workers and the struggle


of working people. That is the theme. A lot of films I don't always


divide them into left and right film, a lot of films can't be


divided like that, the films we put are on about telling peep's stories.


There are powerful British left-wing films aren't there? There are of


course. Give me a couple 678 He me think some of the films we have put


on, Made in Dagenham That was a reasonable commercial successful It


was and we put that on at the festival before. There is Kes. The


Full Monty Absolutely. And the one with the young boy who became the


ballet dancer, Billy. Billy Elliot 6789 that was a left-wing film. It


was. Again a commercial success. Absolutely. Pride which came out two


years ago now, we screened that last year again, a great film about the


LGBT community coming together to support the mining community.


Fabulous film. Do, where does Britain stand, though, in this, in


its ability to do these films with a political purpose, a left-wing


agenda, are we really up there with the French or the Italians, or even


the American independence sector? Don't they do more and maybe better?


Or the Germans too? I think we have a very vibrant film industry in this


country and I think there is a lot of, I think a lot of people that


make films and produce films tend to be a lot of creatives tend to, if


you like, have left-wing sensibilities, overall, and... I


know overall, but this is a specialist one because there are a


lot more films being made of the type you are showing that don't get


much of a commercial release, or if they do they are not a huge success


even though they maybe worthwhile films. Peter, you founded the new


culture forum which is channelling the cultural orthodoxies in the


widest sense, so are you challenging also the kind of the films we are


talking about? Not at all. Fist of all I think the festivals are great.


All festivals are good. Good luck, it is hard to fete one going, in


fact if there were to be a right-wing or more a more diverse


sort of Film Festival that wasn't left, took on many different


subjects, then I would be very happy but it doesn't happen on the whole.


It is difficult. Why? Think particularly two things, First of


all it is about funding strangely enough. You know, most of the


foundations you might go to, most of the public foundations and companies


are politically correct in what they want to support. It doesn't matter


what they are doing but their window shop is of porting broadly soft left


thing, there is that, and working in television for years as well, is


there is a kind of group think in the general cultural world, in


Britain, which is broadly soft left. It is assumed you are... What are


you trying to do about that? Basically with the new culture forum


it is saying, look, you know, you don't have to be just pro climate


change, pro multiculturalism, pro mass migration or whatever, to work


in the arts or to work in the academic field. You don't, do you?


It is an extraordinary pressure, on you, to basically go along with a


certain agenda, otherwise you will search high and low for a film or a


play or a novel or piece of art that for example challenges


multiculturalism or challenges for example you know, the impact of mass


migration, I would have thought they were dramatic issues. Is this sort


of entertainment, a programme makeling, is it a left-wing


monopoly? I don't think that is the case, I think culture in film and


art are inclusive, really, I don't think, I don't think that there is


kind of a left-wing monopoly on it by any mean, we are telling stories


that are relevant... What films, supposing you got the funding to


launch an equivalent to what Anna is doing, what would be the films to be


shown at say Ukip Film Festival. It wouldn't necessarily be a Ukip one.


A general Conservative one, I think probably for example, first of all


there should be a hell of a lot more documentaries we saw Michael Moore


there, he has probably become the most famous documentary maker in the


world. There should be more documentaries looking at things like


radical Islam. What I asked what would you show at the moment, what


films would fit in to your cultural world view? British films? British


films. That is very difficult to find that. Really? Yes. All the


films you talked about earlier, they are all on the left. I suppose the


nearest would be was The Iron lady. In the sense a lot of people said


this is right-wing revisionism but it was pretty politically neutral.


You know what you going to get when you go to a British film. Really?


Are you going to this festival. Do you think he is right? The only


example I I can think of there was a film called Brexit the movie and


certainly other things around the referendum they were trying to get a


music festival off ground and there was a sense of fear for certain


mainstream businesses and people to get involved with those events


because it seems that would in some way politicise them. In. So senses


you don't get that from films and cultural events on the left. It


seems more socially acceptable in some senses. We won't be at the Film


Festival because we will be up in Liverpool, living the dream. I mean


I think there is an example of Ukip culture, it is the programme, TV


programme Nigel Farage says is his favourite, Dad's Army. That an


example of the kind of thing the former head of Ukip would identify


himself with. Is that not what you are looking towards? It is more


serious than that. If you want to get new audiences in you need


diversity of issues and that is one of the things the arts tend not to


do. They tend to to follow public opinion, they ecreep out and might


put something out which is a bit critical of something like Islam but


on the whole it is cowardly. It is James Bond a left or right-wing


franchise. Ian Fleming was right-wing, it has gone different...


Bridget Jones, left or right, Monty Python? I don't know you can fit


So, who's had a slice of the action this week,


and who's been pushed out of the tent?


Here's Ellie again, with all the political bun


fights of the week, in just 60 seconds.


Tim Farron started conference wanting to be


leader settled for heaping praise on - Tony Blair,


with his keynote speech appealing to Labour voters.


Tuesday saw Theresa May give her first major address


tht a post-Brexit Britain wouldn't shy away from its global


Voting for the next Labour leader closed on Wednesday.


We will find out who made the cut - Owen Smith or Jeremy Corbyn -


tomorrow, ahead of the party conference in Liverpool.


Boris Johnson gave diplomacy a go this week when he said


there was strong evidence that Russia bombed a UN


He was standing right outside a UN Security Council meeting.


And Jeremy Corbyn waded in on the national mourning


to follow The Great British Bake Off's move to Channel 4,


by calling for the programme to be nationalised.


There's just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz.


The question was who did former Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls say


So, what is the correct answer? Well, I don't think the correct


answer but the real answer is he has embarrass all of them. That is


harsh! It is. Yvette Cooper would agree with that. It was his family,


he said. He would embarrassment He succeeded. Sam maybe right. That is


it for today. Thanks to Sam, Caroline


and all my guests. I'll be back on Sunday at 11am


with a special edition of the Sunday Politics,


live from the Labour And the Daily Politics


will be back on Monday, with more conference coverage


from 11.00am, including live coverage of the Shadow


Chancellor's speech - If there is nothing new,


then the Court of Appeal aren't going to change


their decision.


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