29/09/2016 Daily Politics


29/09/2016

Jo Coburn with the latest political news, interviews and debate. She is joined by former Conservative cabinet minister Oliver Letwin to discuss EU trade negotiations.


Similar Content

Browse content similar to 29/09/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!

Transcript


LineFromTo

Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.

:00:37.:00:39.

As International Trade Secretary Liam Fox sets out his vision

:00:40.:00:49.

for post-Brexit trade deals, we look at the challenges

:00:50.:00:51.

Is Theresa May about to give the green light

:00:52.:00:57.

With rumours of a possible Commons vote next month,

:00:58.:01:01.

we'll ask former Government bigwig, Oliver Letwin.

:01:02.:01:05.

After Labour announces it would implement a total ban

:01:06.:01:08.

on fracking for gas, does the controversial technique

:01:09.:01:11.

We'll hear from the energy boss who's just imported a tanker

:01:12.:01:16.

And does how a politician stands make a difference to how

:01:17.:01:23.

We'll discuss whether "power-posing" is all it's cracked up to be.

:01:24.:01:35.

All that in the next hour and with us for the whole

:01:36.:01:38.

of the programme today, a man who has spent the last six

:01:39.:01:41.

year at the heart of Government, serving throughout the coalition

:01:42.:01:44.

as minister for government policy and before that,

:01:45.:01:46.

many years at the centre of the Conservative

:01:47.:01:48.

Let's kick off with the reports this morning that Theresa May could be

:01:49.:01:56.

preparing to give the green light to Heathrow expansion-

:01:57.:01:58.

despite opposition from some Conservative MPs.

:01:59.:02:02.

The Financial Times reports on its front page today

:02:03.:02:05.

that the Conservative Party chairman, Patrick McLoughlin,

:02:06.:02:08.

has been crunching the numbers and that he believes the PM

:02:09.:02:12.

would win a vote in parliament on the controversial plans.

:02:13.:02:15.

Oliver Letwin, you were on the cabinet committee for airport

:02:16.:02:19.

expansion until you left Government this summer -

:02:20.:02:21.

do you think Theresa May is going to push ahead with this?

:02:22.:02:27.

I have no way of telling. As soon as you leave, you know nothing about

:02:28.:02:36.

what is going on. Did you get any impression before? Not really. But I

:02:37.:02:41.

think it is pretty certain that the government will have to decide in

:02:42.:02:45.

favour of one or the other. I don't believe we can do without some

:02:46.:02:49.

airport expansion in the London and south-east area, so the question is

:02:50.:02:55.

which and where. If we look at Heathrow, we know there is fierce

:02:56.:02:59.

opposition in the Cabinet, not least from Justine Greening and Boris

:03:00.:03:02.

Johnson. So do you think the Prime Minister has enough votes to drive

:03:03.:03:08.

through a policy of expansion to airports? That, I also don't know

:03:09.:03:11.

because I am not the Chief Whip and I have not done the analysis, but my

:03:12.:03:15.

guess is that probably, across Parliament as a whole, there would

:03:16.:03:19.

be a majority in favour. I would be surprised if there were not. I would

:03:20.:03:24.

vote for Heathrow expansion because I think it is a natural thing. It is

:03:25.:03:29.

a hard and it has advantages from that point of view. But what will

:03:30.:03:34.

she do with the members of her Cabinet who would vote against,

:03:35.:03:39.

Boris Johnson and Justine Greening? I don't know, but one way of dealing

:03:40.:03:44.

with it is to have a free vote. And she could then rely on enough Labour

:03:45.:03:48.

support as well as support from the Tory backbenches. The Liberal

:03:49.:03:53.

Democrats only have eight MPs more obviously. This has now got to a

:03:54.:03:56.

point where delay would be seen at by many as the worst option. Delay

:03:57.:04:05.

would be the worst option. My guess... But you have been at the

:04:06.:04:09.

heart of government for a long time and this issue has been discussed

:04:10.:04:14.

time and time again. But I am not informed about the SNP. My guess is

:04:15.:04:18.

that from a Scottish point of view, having Heathrow expand would be a

:04:19.:04:21.

good thing because there are a lot of flights to and from... I think

:04:22.:04:29.

they would vote in favour. But from what you know, do you think most of

:04:30.:04:33.

your colleagues have now been persuaded that expansion at Heathrow

:04:34.:04:38.

is a necessity from an economic point of view? I would guess that

:04:39.:04:42.

there is a substantial view across Tory MPs as a whole that we need

:04:43.:04:46.

expansion of one airport or the other. I doubt there are huge

:04:47.:04:53.

passions pro one or the other. My guess is that whichever the

:04:54.:04:56.

government goes forward probably get a majority.

:04:57.:04:57.

Our guest of the day, Oliver Letwin, was responsible for writing the 2010

:04:58.:05:02.

Conservative Manifesto, and so the question for today is -

:05:03.:05:04.

Was it Battersea Power Station in London, The Eden Project

:05:05.:05:11.

in Cornwall, The Lowry Arts Centre in Salford Quays a smoothie

:05:12.:05:15.

At the end of the show, Oliver will give us the correct answer.

:05:16.:05:21.

Liam Fox, Theresa May's international trade secretary,

:05:22.:05:24.

has been setting out his vision for post-Brexit trade

:05:25.:05:27.

Speaking in Manchester, Liam Fox said the UK has a golden

:05:28.:05:32.

opportunity to forge a new role for ourselves in the world.

:05:33.:05:42.

Where progress has stalled at the multilateral level, the UK must be

:05:43.:05:50.

ready to look at more bespoke Ilori lateral and bilateral arrangements

:05:51.:05:52.

to make sure the global marketplace remains fair and free. We cannot

:05:53.:05:59.

allow foot dragging by those unwilling to seize the benefits of

:06:00.:06:03.

free trade to hinder progress on important issues for the rest, such

:06:04.:06:10.

as eradicating nontariff barriers in services, digital or intellectual

:06:11.:06:11.

property. Much of the focus so far has been

:06:12.:06:12.

on what relationship Britain After all, the UK can't enter

:06:13.:06:15.

into formal negotiations with any other country while it's

:06:16.:06:21.

still a member of the EU - so that's two years

:06:22.:06:24.

after article 50 is triggered. Our Ellie has been talking to two

:06:25.:06:27.

former international trade negotiators to see what they think

:06:28.:06:29.

of the longer term job about the new trade

:06:30.:06:32.

agreement with Britain. To prosper in the future,

:06:33.:06:39.

it must be again, but getting other countries to queue up to sign

:06:40.:06:48.

on the dotted line will not be easy. How much Britain continues to look

:06:49.:06:52.

to Europe will affect relationships and deals

:06:53.:06:54.

for countries further afield. It would be difficult for us

:06:55.:06:59.

to have a free trade deal with the UK or for the UK

:07:00.:07:02.

to negotiate free-trade deals with countries outside the EU if it

:07:03.:07:06.

stays in the single market or if it opts for a customs

:07:07.:07:10.

union with the EU. Maybe some advantages for Britain

:07:11.:07:12.

in doing that, but it's hard to see how we would negotiate a free trade

:07:13.:07:15.

agreement with UK alone The EU and Canada are about to sign

:07:16.:07:18.

a comprehensive economic and trade agreement,

:07:19.:07:22.

or Ceta, which will eliminate nearly There is talk in Westminster that

:07:23.:07:25.

Britain should push So what does one of the negotiators

:07:26.:07:30.

who worked on that deal think For Canada, it would be working

:07:31.:07:35.

out its economic relationship with other partners in North America

:07:36.:07:41.

and then going on to the rest I assume the UK will pursue

:07:42.:07:44.

the same kind of analysis - "We have to sort things

:07:45.:07:49.

out with Europe first". From there, it needs

:07:50.:07:51.

to get its relationship The WTO is kind of the baseline

:07:52.:07:54.

from which it can build other free-trade agreements with either

:07:55.:08:02.

bilateral or multilateral partners. It's like having a floor in place

:08:03.:08:09.

so that you can build the stairs. Most of Britain's trade

:08:10.:08:13.

negotiations will be the new Department for

:08:14.:08:15.

International Trade. But as well as a new sign,

:08:16.:08:18.

the department will also need some We haven't needed them

:08:19.:08:22.

for more than 40 years, I have been told trade

:08:23.:08:26.

negotiators from Canada, New Zealand and Australia have

:08:27.:08:33.

already been in to gain real life -- to talk about their experiences

:08:34.:08:46.

of negotiation. Finally, a little birdie told me

:08:47.:08:51.

that former foreign trade negotiators have also been

:08:52.:08:53.

approached by the Government Then there are the rumours that

:08:54.:08:55.

Britain could just borrow some. We think the ideal would be for us

:08:56.:09:03.

to lend a few of our negotiators with Australia so that

:09:04.:09:13.

we can get an optimal outcome, but perhaps the British

:09:14.:09:21.

government would draw They run courses in negotiation

:09:22.:09:23.

at the London Business School. Crucially, the tutors insist

:09:24.:09:27.

that the skills are easily learned, Experts estimate that Britain

:09:28.:09:29.

could need up to 700 trade negotiators over several years

:09:30.:09:33.

to get the job done. We've been joined from Cardiff

:09:34.:09:35.

by the Ukip member of the welsh assembly, Mark Reckless,

:09:36.:09:38.

and from Brussels by the Liberal Democrat

:09:39.:09:40.

MEP Catherine Bearder. Oliver Letwin, you were involved in

:09:41.:09:55.

this before you lost your job. Do you favour the UK cutting loose in

:09:56.:09:58.

what they call a source of hard Brexit from the customs union, and

:09:59.:10:02.

then try to negotiate some sort of relationship with the EU? I don't

:10:03.:10:07.

think those decisions you can make unilaterally. The question is what

:10:08.:10:14.

is doable with our EU partners. And what is doable? I don't know yet.

:10:15.:10:19.

What I am clear as about what we need to get out of it. The first

:10:20.:10:22.

thing we need is clarity that we will be able to sell retail,

:10:23.:10:27.

financial and professional services into the European markets. That is

:10:28.:10:32.

crucial for the City of London. So access to the single market.

:10:33.:10:38.

Specifically for retail and financial services. Secondly, we

:10:39.:10:42.

need a continuation of the zero tariff regime we have on exports and

:10:43.:10:47.

imports of goods, which is relatively easy to achieve because

:10:48.:10:51.

it is in the mutual interest. Thirdly, this is what makes the

:10:52.:10:54.

first in particular are very difficult, we need to reassert what

:10:55.:10:58.

the British people have voted for, which is control over migration. The

:10:59.:11:01.

question is, how to put that package together. Some say you want to have

:11:02.:11:09.

your cake and eat it. Correct. But would you be prepared to take some

:11:10.:11:14.

element of freedom of movement in order to guarantee your first point,

:11:15.:11:20.

the retail services and financial services sector being preserved?

:11:21.:11:23.

Speaking for myself if I was a one man show and the only person in the

:11:24.:11:28.

UK, yes, I would. But the people of our country didn't vote for that.

:11:29.:11:33.

They voted for absolute control over migration. Mark Reckless, what trade

:11:34.:11:37.

agreement should we have now and how should we go about it? Well, we have

:11:38.:11:41.

trade arrangements now where we trade freely with the European

:11:42.:11:46.

Union, and I expect they will be maintained. They are the status quo.

:11:47.:11:52.

It may be described as a temporary arrangement, but the reality is that

:11:53.:11:55.

five people are employed in the EU exporting to the UK for every three

:11:56.:12:00.

who are employed in the UK exporting to the EU, so it is strongly in our

:12:01.:12:05.

mutual interest and I expect that will continue. There was an

:12:06.:12:09.

expectation that both you and Oliver Letwin hold onto, which is the idea

:12:10.:12:13.

that because of the arrangements in terms of exports, Germany will be

:12:14.:12:16.

keen to cut that sort of deal. But actually, the head of Germany's

:12:17.:12:19.

industrial federation has said there will be no access to the single

:12:20.:12:24.

market for the UK without freedom of movement. Then there would be

:12:25.:12:25.

significant tariffs on his members' goods being

:12:26.:12:45.

sold to the UK. He seems prepared to take that risk. I think that is

:12:46.:12:47.

unlikely and I wonder if you correctly understood what he said.

:12:48.:12:50.

They have put out statements before saying free trade must be maintained

:12:51.:12:52.

with the UK. So Catherine Bearder, it is bluff from the Germans and

:12:53.:12:54.

also from Matteo Renzi in Italy today to try and say that there will

:12:55.:12:58.

not be a favourable deal for the UK. In the end, practical matters will

:12:59.:13:00.

come to the fore, particularly when it comes to business. You have to

:13:01.:13:07.

get it right. We don't have access to the single market. We are a full

:13:08.:13:13.

member of the European Union. In the same way that Wales is a full member

:13:14.:13:19.

of the UK. So there are no restrictions on trade. If we are

:13:20.:13:27.

coming out, they will say that the rules are that you are a full member

:13:28.:13:31.

and you have to sign up to full movement. If you are outside that,

:13:32.:13:40.

the rules will be different. America trades with the European Union.

:13:41.:13:45.

There American banks working within the European Union. They have to

:13:46.:13:50.

abide by the rules. At the moment, as a member, we don't have all that

:13:51.:14:00.

rigmarole. The American banks will have regulatory equivalents of what

:14:01.:14:12.

happens in the EU, and that will allow all banks within the EU to be

:14:13.:14:19.

able to passport services into the EU. So I don't see that as a

:14:20.:14:25.

challenging area. What I do think we will be able to do is open up a

:14:26.:14:28.

third markets overseas, particularly to our tradable services which

:14:29.:14:34.

offers real opportunities to improve the prosperity of the United Kingdom

:14:35.:14:38.

in the future. Catherine Bearder, is that not possible? Well, why would

:14:39.:14:44.

the European Union give it to us? At the moment, we are a full member. We

:14:45.:14:50.

abide by the rules, and that is accepted. Why would they give us the

:14:51.:14:57.

same access when we are outside? Because that is what its own rules

:14:58.:15:02.

say. Oliver Letwin, you seem to be facing the prospect that you could

:15:03.:15:07.

not have both and that you would be prepared to give on freedom of

:15:08.:15:11.

movement, which Theresa May has indicated she feels Britain cannot

:15:12.:15:14.

do because of the result of the referendum. If that is the case,

:15:15.:15:19.

what would happen to things like passport in for financial services?

:15:20.:15:20.

How disastrous would it be? I think Mark is right that Miffid2

:15:21.:15:36.

allows countries to export the financial services without going

:15:37.:15:42.

through great great morals. The question is Binny to get some kind

:15:43.:15:48.

of guarantee we would continue to have that access but they're all

:15:49.:15:54.

sorts of things we have to trade in this very complicated situation.

:15:55.:15:58.

There are also lots of things we need to arrange. My experience of

:15:59.:16:00.

negotiating, which I have done quite a lot of over the last many years is

:16:01.:16:06.

if you reduce these things too stark simplicity is no way that goes down

:16:07.:16:09.

well on TV so to speak, it all goes wrong. But you have to do is very

:16:10.:16:12.

subtly unpick all of the many elements and work through them so

:16:13.:16:16.

you get a package. You should not think it on the EU and us. There are

:16:17.:16:21.

27 other member states. You have to knit this thing together. So it will

:16:22.:16:31.

become bigoted and take a long time. A new report says by cronies to

:16:32.:16:36.

spend ?500 million per year on new staff. Brother to get the EU out of

:16:37.:16:42.

unnecessary speculation, we will engage in more bureaucracy to try

:16:43.:16:45.

and unpick this very complicated process you have just outlined. You

:16:46.:16:51.

have to put this in some context, ?65 million a year compared to ?700

:16:52.:16:56.

billion a year. If you get the deal you want. That is 10,000 times as

:16:57.:17:02.

much. If you are going to get the deal you want and we don't know that

:17:03.:17:07.

at this particular stage. There are reports in the Financial Times that

:17:08.:17:10.

says there was a shortage of space, staff don't have anywhere to work in

:17:11.:17:14.

the Brexit department. Laptops are being shared. These are the kinds of

:17:15.:17:19.

problems you get over matters of weeks, of course it is makes good

:17:20.:17:25.

press but it is very dreary. There is a big game of multi dimensional

:17:26.:17:28.

chess that has to be played, and it is going to take a long time to get

:17:29.:17:32.

it right. I think Theresa is a very good long-distance persistent

:17:33.:17:37.

negotiator and I suspect at the end we will get our cake and be able to

:17:38.:17:41.

eat it. Catherine Debrunner did, though you go. It takes an awful

:17:42.:17:48.

long time, Whitehall has its own problems and it will gobble up a lot

:17:49.:17:51.

of that money promised to the NHS in the referendum. It will take years.

:17:52.:17:57.

The Canadian free trade agreement has taken years. And store has to be

:17:58.:18:03.

ratified. Yes, and they are now really concerned because if we are

:18:04.:18:07.

outside that a large part of the trade agreement was because the UK

:18:08.:18:12.

was involved. So it has to be done sector by sector, you are talking

:18:13.:18:17.

about toys, chemicals, drugs, agriculture and the chemicals you

:18:18.:18:21.

can use and the methods. It just takes forever to do a trade

:18:22.:18:30.

agreement. At the moment, our businesses have access, and we are

:18:31.:18:36.

making those rules. Outside it will take forever. Are you going to tell

:18:37.:18:40.

those businesses that they can just go and wait for five years while we

:18:41.:18:48.

are busy negotiating? What about the uncertainty question, Catherine

:18:49.:18:52.

Bearded, that is raised, because if the UK isn't definitely leaving the

:18:53.:18:56.

customs union, and I suppose we don't yet know, in a way what is

:18:57.:19:01.

Liam Fox going to do over the next few years as head of International

:19:02.:19:07.

trade? Because while we are still a member, we are forgiven from

:19:08.:19:09.

negotiating our own bilateral agreements with third parties. We

:19:10.:19:19.

are forbidden from agreeing them, we can discuss. I think it is quite

:19:20.:19:23.

clear we are going to leave the customs union. But there can be

:19:24.:19:26.

lengthy trade discussions but while they are going on, the status quo is

:19:27.:19:33.

that we have free trade and open access, so unless Catherine Bearder

:19:34.:19:39.

thinks that we will pay far more of that than we would then what will

:19:40.:19:43.

happen is there will be a transitional arrangement where we

:19:44.:19:46.

have the status quo, we transition to whatever these longer-term

:19:47.:19:52.

arrangements are back on the basis that we can negotiate with Canada,

:19:53.:19:56.

we can negotiate with the United States, and rather than having this

:19:57.:19:59.

very complex, restrictive and frankly protectionist negotiation

:20:00.:20:05.

that the EU can, we can open up my kids much more and go back to the

:20:06.:20:09.

principle of actually having mutual recognition of our regulation.

:20:10.:20:14.

Instead of agreeing a single set, everyone has to fly to trade,

:20:15.:20:17.

actually as long as you are compliant with one set of

:20:18.:20:20.

regulations, then your goods and hopefully many sector services are

:20:21.:20:26.

accepted as well. Mark Reckless, think you have lost your earpiece,

:20:27.:20:31.

over the net when, are you happy with the three Brexiteers? Yes, a

:20:32.:20:37.

very formidable team. Do you think they will get on? The media is

:20:38.:20:40.

reporting that is already some sort of discord between the three of them

:20:41.:20:43.

but is it an impossible task for them as a trio to come together and

:20:44.:20:48.

bring forward some sort of coherent plan when they are approaching it

:20:49.:20:54.

from such different angles? I was constantly told during the years of

:20:55.:20:57.

the coalition that it would fall apart. Politicians are grown-ups,

:20:58.:21:01.

they work these things out, of course it makes good press. We might

:21:02.:21:06.

put it back to you if it does. The critical point is that it is not in

:21:07.:21:11.

the end anyone else, my whole experience over the last few years

:21:12.:21:14.

is that when you are negotiating these kinds of things, in the end it

:21:15.:21:18.

is done head of government to head of government. This is Theresa may

:21:19.:21:22.

have will have to carry this. I have had many years of experience and I

:21:23.:21:26.

don't envy the people on the other side of that table, because she's

:21:27.:21:31.

very good at it. In the end it would be her that drives it, in the end it

:21:32.:21:37.

is down to Theresa. Catherine Bearder and Mark Reckless, thank you

:21:38.:21:40.

very much, we will be revisiting this.

:21:41.:21:51.

My guest of the day today - Oliver Letwin - has been at the top

:21:52.:21:55.

of the Conservative Party, and at the heart of Government,

:21:56.:21:57.

But for much of that time he's kept a very low profile, beavering away

:21:58.:22:01.

behind the scenes - ensuring the smooth running

:22:02.:22:03.

of the coalition government from 2010 to 2015, helping

:22:04.:22:06.

David Cameron to implement his 2015 manifesto, and finally -

:22:07.:22:08.

for just two weeks - leading the government's fledgling

:22:09.:22:10.

Brexit unit after the referendum in July.

:22:11.:22:12.

Mark Lobel has been checking out Mr Letwin's political journey.

:22:13.:22:15.

Advising Margaret Thatcher on education, Oliver Letwin

:22:16.:22:21.

was already a Number Ten insider in his 20s.

:22:22.:22:23.

When Mrs Thatcher left Downing Street, this Eton-educated

:22:24.:22:25.

son of academics sought to enter parliament himself, and spoke

:22:26.:22:27.

to the BBC about how to give state schools a better sense of identity.

:22:28.:22:31.

Simple things, like giving them school songs and school

:22:32.:22:34.

histories and other things, which are traditional

:22:35.:22:36.

After two failed bids to become an MP, Oliver Letwin's efforts

:22:37.:22:40.

blossomed in West Dorset, just as New Labour took over.

:22:41.:22:45.

He's caught the eye of Tory leaders ever since, first

:22:46.:22:48.

in William Hague's Treasury team, but things got wobbly as the 2001

:22:49.:22:51.

general election approached, when he briefed the FT that a Tory

:22:52.:22:53.

government would cut taxes by much more than first thought.

:22:54.:23:00.

Then Chancellor Gordon Brown held up a Wanted poster.

:23:01.:23:09.

Bloodhounds were employed to sniff him out.

:23:10.:23:11.

When he finally resurfaced to find the Tories still in opposition,

:23:12.:23:14.

new leader Iain Duncan Smith made him a Shadow Home Secretary.

:23:15.:23:19.

And the next new leader, Michael Howard, appointed him

:23:20.:23:21.

Shadow Chancellor as they fought the 2005 election together.

:23:22.:23:25.

Oliver is, as everybody knows, very clever.

:23:26.:23:29.

He's got a very inventive and fertile mind.

:23:30.:23:33.

So I didn't really think hard about appointing him

:23:34.:23:37.

He's quite transparent, and you don't have to worry,

:23:38.:23:43.

as you do sometimes with some people, over whether they're playing

:23:44.:23:46.

games or what lies behind whatever they're suggesting.

:23:47.:23:52.

With Oliver, what you see is what you get.

:23:53.:23:58.

Mr Letwin was also one of the earliest backers

:23:59.:24:00.

of the next Tory leader, David Cameron, and having

:24:01.:24:03.

made his own ideological journey more towards the centre,

:24:04.:24:05.

quickly became the future PM's policy chief as the 2010

:24:06.:24:07.

With a hung parliament, he became a chief negotiator

:24:08.:24:13.

during coalition talks with the Liberal Democrats.

:24:14.:24:17.

He's somebody that you get a strong impression is in it

:24:18.:24:20.

for the public interest and not for his personal interest.

:24:21.:24:24.

So he was a very easy, engaging characters to work with.

:24:25.:24:29.

And even on those occasions where he was having to champion

:24:30.:24:31.

things for his party that he didn't always believe in,

:24:32.:24:34.

he had the decency to look uncomfortable and embarrassed.

:24:35.:24:37.

During the coalition, the two men met to work

:24:38.:24:39.

through policy areas, from the Queen's Speech to regular

:24:40.:24:41.

I guess we had a form of cafeteria government,

:24:42.:24:51.

where Oliver and I met once a week, I think it was a Tuesday morning

:24:52.:24:54.

at 7.30 in the Downing Street cafeteria on the lowest

:24:55.:24:57.

And over a kipper or some porridge or something, we would

:24:58.:25:01.

have a list of five, six or seven difficult issues,

:25:02.:25:03.

and we would work through them and see if we could gain agreement

:25:04.:25:06.

so that as little as possible needed to go to Cameron and Nick Clegg.

:25:07.:25:12.

But the Cabinet Office minister's attempts to keep a low profile came

:25:13.:25:15.

unstuck when he was caught dumping Parliamentary papers

:25:16.:25:17.

and constituents' letters in a park bin.

:25:18.:25:21.

I have to apologise to constituents who wrote to me,

:25:22.:25:24.

because I think you're right, on reflection, that I shouldn't have

:25:25.:25:26.

David Cameron stuck by his man until his last political breath,

:25:27.:25:33.

appointing him to lead a Brexit unit last June.

:25:34.:25:39.

Perhaps Mr Letwin's desire not to climb the political ladder helped

:25:40.:25:42.

convince Tory leader after Tory leader to keep him

:25:43.:25:44.

But it was pulled from under his feet, with the rest

:25:45.:25:54.

of Cameron's old guard, by Theresa May.

:25:55.:26:02.

Well, Oliver Wright when, hope you enjoyed that trip down memory lane.

:26:03.:26:07.

Let's return to one of those intriguing moments, when you put

:26:08.:26:11.

confidential vapours into the bin at Saint James 's Park on five separate

:26:12.:26:16.

occasions, why? Just to correct you, they were not confidential papers,

:26:17.:26:20.

they were letters from constituents. They were not confidential papers,

:26:21.:26:26.

just to be clear. And I shouldn't have put them in the bin, no, I

:26:27.:26:29.

should have shredded them, which I have done since. Was just an

:26:30.:26:33.

absentmindedness, just one of those things? I really didn't think about

:26:34.:26:37.

it, and I should have thought about it. I was in the habit then as I am

:26:38.:26:42.

now of dictating my constituents correspondence early in the morning,

:26:43.:26:46.

and I was walking in the park are needed to get rid of them, and I

:26:47.:26:49.

should have put them in the shredder, which I have done since.

:26:50.:26:53.

In terms of the long span had been in power in one way or another, but

:26:54.:26:59.

the Jews the most sleep over? Oh, I'm not prone to losing sleep, but I

:27:00.:27:06.

buried a lot -- Watt what did you lose the most sleep over. I would

:27:07.:27:11.

turn on the radio or read my blackberry, which I have a summary

:27:12.:27:14.

of the overnight use and think I have to do something about that.

:27:15.:27:17.

Then I wouldn't rush into Downing Street and try to get the machine to

:27:18.:27:21.

do something about it. It was a constant business of trying to

:27:22.:27:24.

manage things that problems did not turn into crises. Which ones did?

:27:25.:27:29.

Brother occasions, policies, that ended up becoming crises? I think of

:27:30.:27:35.

the poll tax with the one of them. Were those when you said a mistake?

:27:36.:27:40.

That wasn't when I was in office, of course, I think the poll tax was a

:27:41.:27:46.

disaster. But you were an adviser. That was a very long, slow burn

:27:47.:27:50.

thing. I left halfway through the middle of that thing. So you didn't

:27:51.:27:55.

lose sleep? No, because I was not implement in the policy. I think in

:27:56.:27:58.

retrospect it was completely the wrong policy but that is a different

:27:59.:28:02.

matter. I am talking about a crisis or a problem in the things happening

:28:03.:28:06.

moment to moment. As an example, almost every winter we have problems

:28:07.:28:10.

with the flooding. The nation has problems with the flooding. And it

:28:11.:28:15.

continues. It does, but gradually I think we are getting it under some

:28:16.:28:20.

kind of control. I used to wake up worried endlessly, have we done

:28:21.:28:23.

enough, what can we do to respond to it, how can we deal with this

:28:24.:28:27.

particular incident? But then things will just blow up out of nowhere.

:28:28.:28:34.

Once we had a massive problem with backlog of passport agency

:28:35.:28:36.

applications and you have to do with that. What about the cutting taxes

:28:37.:28:41.

by 20 billion in 2001, when we couldn't find you? I was a

:28:42.:28:44.

correspondent at the time and we were looking for you. I was rushing

:28:45.:28:49.

around West Dorset making speeches, you could have family perfectly

:28:50.:28:53.

easily! First of the think it was very silly in retrospect to arrange

:28:54.:28:57.

for me to disappear. What should have happened as I should have been

:28:58.:29:00.

sent on a podium to expand exactly what I was saying, and I learn from

:29:01.:29:03.

that episode, that when things go wrong you are much better in front

:29:04.:29:08.

of cameras than out of you. . You think of the Andrew Lansley has an

:29:09.:29:11.

social care bill, you posted once you had been through it line by line

:29:12.:29:15.

but given how divisive it ended up, how much worse was that before it

:29:16.:29:19.

was published? I think the direction of that was right. But I think we

:29:20.:29:26.

made some errors, because I don't think we realised at the time just

:29:27.:29:32.

how difficult it is to knit together the various aspects of health and

:29:33.:29:37.

social care. And I think that we really have been learning over the

:29:38.:29:40.

past few years as a country is that in the end it is about the person,

:29:41.:29:44.

and they don't come in sort of strict bureaucratic pockets. This

:29:45.:29:50.

elderly and frail person is not a patient in the NHS, or an object of

:29:51.:29:54.

care by social care, it is one person and we need one integrated

:29:55.:29:58.

system to look after them. And gradually I think Jeremy Hunt is

:29:59.:30:03.

getting towards that. Do you wish you had killed that the dead? Think

:30:04.:30:06.

you would have been better to have attended at that time to the

:30:07.:30:11.

creation of the seven-day NHS as we can to do later, rather than getting

:30:12.:30:16.

distracted interchanges, which while I think you are perfectly sensible

:30:17.:30:19.

in principle, did not advance the really difficult agendas. You have

:30:20.:30:25.

been involved as we have now uncovered in people in similar

:30:26.:30:27.

different areas of government. Would you rather just have had your own

:30:28.:30:30.

department, you know, one of the big departments yourself to run? Oh no,

:30:31.:30:36.

not at all, partly because it is totally fascinating to be at the

:30:37.:30:39.

centre of government. You really feel you are making a difference Day

:30:40.:30:43.

by day. But partly also because it is a question of each person having

:30:44.:30:46.

their own strengths and weaknesses, and there were colleagues of mine

:30:47.:30:49.

vastly better at front line politics than I was ever going to be. But I

:30:50.:30:54.

think that I was able to do very often was to get to the bottom of

:30:55.:30:58.

what was really going on in the machine, and in the country, and

:30:59.:31:01.

then try to find some way of correcting what was happening.

:31:02.:31:08.

Not one department you would have fancied running? No, I was happy

:31:09.:31:17.

where I was. Greg Oliver's diaries say you were predicting that Michael

:31:18.:31:20.

Gove would win the Conservative leadership election. Which one?

:31:21.:31:25.

After the referendum. Telemachus sorry, I thought you were talking

:31:26.:31:32.

about 2010. Sorry, I am taking you backwards and forwards across the

:31:33.:31:36.

history of the Conservative Party. I thought it was more likely to be a

:31:37.:31:40.

Brexiteer than not. And I thought therefore that it would be Boris.

:31:41.:31:45.

Then it was clear that Boris was not going to win because he had stepped

:31:46.:31:48.

down, so the question was over Michael Gove or Andrea. As it turned

:31:49.:31:54.

out, it was Andrea. In the end, I think the Conservative Party made

:31:55.:31:58.

the right choice. Even though you thought it should have been a

:31:59.:32:03.

Brexiteer? No, I thought it would be. So you did not favour a

:32:04.:32:07.

Brexiteer like Michael Gove or Boris Johnson, you just presumed it would

:32:08.:32:14.

be? Correct. I can now say I own view. I swore a vow of silence at

:32:15.:32:18.

the time because I was preparing for whoever was going to be the next!.

:32:19.:32:22.

My view was that Theresa was the right candidate, and I still hold by

:32:23.:32:27.

that -- she was going to be the next Prime Minister. Ken Clarke has said

:32:28.:32:35.

David Cameron will be remembered as being the man who made the mistake

:32:36.:32:38.

of taking us out of the European Union. I think David Cameron will be

:32:39.:32:42.

remembered for lots of things, rescuing this country from the brink

:32:43.:32:46.

of bankruptcy and initiating public service reform. Of course, people

:32:47.:32:50.

will also remember the referendum. There will also remember other

:32:51.:32:53.

referendums which went the other way. Scotland was a great success.

:32:54.:32:58.

What is your assessment of the Remain campaign now, bearing in mind

:32:59.:33:04.

that it failed? We know it wasn't a successful campaign. I think it was

:33:05.:33:08.

probably wrongly targeted. In retrospect, it would have been

:33:09.:33:15.

better to make a less strident argument of a more detailed car. For

:33:16.:33:23.

me, as someone who had been a long term Eurosceptic but voted for

:33:24.:33:27.

Remain, the reason was not because I thought that disaster would strike

:33:28.:33:30.

one way or the other, but because I thought on the balance of risk,

:33:31.:33:34.

there was greater risk to leaving than remaining. So the punishment

:33:35.:33:40.

Budget was a mistake? I think altogether, the campaign was to be

:33:41.:33:43.

high-intensity and it would have been more persuasive to people in

:33:44.:33:46.

the middle ground who had not made up their minds if we had argued what

:33:47.:33:49.

was true, which was that it was a balance of risk and you were trying

:33:50.:33:53.

to choose the less risky course of action for this country and there

:33:54.:33:56.

were risks on either side. And I think that kind of tone, which was

:33:57.:34:01.

not the tone on either side, would have been more persuasive. Did you

:34:02.:34:04.

try and persuade David Cameron and George Osborne of that? No, because

:34:05.:34:09.

I see these things in retrospect and I believe them, but I am very

:34:10.:34:14.

conscious that I have been one of those people who is least adept at

:34:15.:34:19.

planning election campaigns. It is not my forte. What are you doing

:34:20.:34:26.

next? I have many plans. I am just in the middle of founding a red tape

:34:27.:34:29.

Institute, which is going to identify, on a cross-party basis,

:34:30.:34:33.

the areas of regulation that we will be able to get out from post-Brexit

:34:34.:34:39.

and do so quickly because of consensus across the parties. That

:34:40.:34:43.

could be a significant contribution. I am also writing various books. So

:34:44.:34:48.

you will be a sort of adviser to the post Brexit process. No, I have

:34:49.:34:54.

mercifully been spared being an adviser any further.

:34:55.:34:56.

When you see the union jack fluttering in the breeze,

:34:57.:34:59.

For thousands of years, flags have represented a people's

:35:00.:35:06.

hopes and dreams. We wave them.

:35:07.:35:08.

And still in the 21st century, die for them.

:35:09.:35:15.

Tim Marshall, former diplomatic editor at Sky,

:35:16.:35:18.

has a new book out "Worth Dying For: The Power and Politics of Flags" -

:35:19.:35:21.

Worth Dying For - The Power and Politics of Flags,

:35:22.:35:58.

Let's start with the Union Jack. We have a picture, in case anyone

:35:59.:36:09.

doesn't know what it looks like. What is the story behind it? It is

:36:10.:36:16.

the story of our union, the story of the legend of St George, the legend

:36:17.:36:25.

of St Andrew, King Angus in Scotland. Said Andrew looked up at

:36:26.:36:31.

the sky before going into battle and saw this great white Cross, hence

:36:32.:36:35.

the saltire. Then they added things on. Unfortunately, we did not put a

:36:36.:36:40.

dragon in, which is problematic with our flag. And then after 1707 and

:36:41.:36:46.

the act of union, here we are. But what you really see in it is down to

:36:47.:36:51.

you. It is in the eye of the beholder. I think it is quite a good

:36:52.:36:56.

flag. It is certainly one of the best-known in the world. It has

:36:57.:37:00.

endured. But there will be people who look at it, and there was a

:37:01.:37:06.

nickname in certain quarters, the butcher's apron, because if you are

:37:07.:37:09.

that particular beholder and you look at that flag, it means

:37:10.:37:13.

something very different. Let's talk about symbolism. Why are they so

:37:14.:37:20.

symbolic for many people, whether it is on porches in the states all

:37:21.:37:26.

waved at various events during the year to denote patriotism or burnt

:37:27.:37:31.

or whatever it is, they are very important. Because it is the

:37:32.:37:38.

embodiment of ideas. There are so many examples. The Ethiopian flag is

:37:39.:37:46.

a good example, red, gold and green. The only African country not to be

:37:47.:37:50.

fully colonised was such an inspiration to the rest of Africa

:37:51.:37:52.

that when the African countries began to become independent

:37:53.:37:57.

themselves many of them took inspiration from red, gold and

:37:58.:38:01.

green. These are just colours, but what they mean to people who look at

:38:02.:38:05.

in Africa is freedom, independence and standing up against the outside

:38:06.:38:11.

oppressor. How old or how recent our flags? You will get letters, several

:38:12.:38:20.

of them. I get them all the time! It depends on your definition of a

:38:21.:38:24.

flag. 20,000 years ago, I'm sure somebody stuck a skull on top of the

:38:25.:38:28.

post and carried it in front of them. Is that a flag? Maybe not.

:38:29.:38:32.

Fast forward, and you have got cloth, but if you put paint onto

:38:33.:38:35.

cloth, it is pretty heavy and then if it rains, you will fall backwards

:38:36.:38:41.

off your horse into battle. So silk - the Chinese invented Suk. About

:38:42.:38:46.

3000 years ago, you can start colouring silk and carrying it into

:38:47.:38:50.

battle. Take that along the silk road, and you meet the Arabs. The

:38:51.:38:54.

Arabs then start to have their own flags. In the Crusades, we have this

:38:55.:38:58.

unfortunate collision between the two, but a lot of Europeans thought,

:38:59.:39:03.

that is a good idea. From that comes the European flags. From there comes

:39:04.:39:08.

heraldry and out of heraldry comes the national flag we see today.

:39:09.:39:13.

Let's look at Chinese flags. What does that flag is a? It's says

:39:14.:39:17.

communism! With Chinese characteristics, which is capitalism

:39:18.:39:24.

now. The colour red says communism. The big star is the Communist party,

:39:25.:39:31.

and it dominates the flag. Behind it are the four categories of the

:39:32.:39:36.

Chinese. There are the presents, the proletariat. There are the

:39:37.:39:41.

bourgeoisie, and then very cunningly, there is the patriotic

:39:42.:39:45.

capitalists. That was very far-sighted of the Chinese in the

:39:46.:39:49.

1940s. Now the last one dominates the other three, but dominating them

:39:50.:39:55.

all is the party. Do you have a favourite flag? I think the Union

:39:56.:40:01.

Jack. Other than that. It something you interested in's it is something

:40:02.:40:07.

I am moved by, for the reasons Tim says. And I think it is above the

:40:08.:40:11.

fray. It is outside politics, like the Queen. It is something we can

:40:12.:40:17.

all unify around, rather than being divided. It is something we are

:40:18.:40:21.

supposed to unify around, but it can be divisive. Are you uniting around

:40:22.:40:34.

the EU flag? I meant the Union Jack. Almost all of us feel British. I

:40:35.:40:42.

accept that if you are in Scotland and use of Independence, you might

:40:43.:40:45.

pick a different view. But most of us who believe in the union believe

:40:46.:40:49.

in the flag because it is outside the disputes about everything else.

:40:50.:40:53.

What about the difference in style and imagery? You talked about

:40:54.:40:58.

Ethiopia. European style flags and flags from the Arab nations, is

:40:59.:41:01.

there a big difference in what they are trying to say? Yes. This is

:41:02.:41:07.

blindingly obvious, but worth pointing out. Obviously, the

:41:08.:41:10.

Christian symbolism fades. You have the Scandinavian cross in the north.

:41:11.:41:15.

The Portuguese flag has the five stigmata of Jesus on it, the Greek

:41:16.:41:18.

flag has the cross. That starts to fade as you head into the East. Two

:41:19.:41:24.

things happen then. One is that you have the Arab colours of revolt. The

:41:25.:41:31.

Saudi flag has the profession of faith on it. That is so obviously

:41:32.:41:37.

not European. The Arab flag is a revolt. There were three Islamic

:41:38.:41:44.

dynasty is. All three are represented on the Arab flag of

:41:45.:41:47.

revolt, the red, green and the red, green and black. That was to bring

:41:48.:41:51.

together the Shia and Sunni dynasty is to become pan Arabic. That is why

:41:52.:41:54.

so many of their flags are those colours. The Saudis decided that

:41:55.:41:57.

they were different and they were the true holders of the faith.

:41:58.:42:03.

Interestingly, along come Isis. They no longer have green, because that

:42:04.:42:09.

is associated sometimes with the Shia faith. If you look at the

:42:10.:42:13.

difference between the Saudi flag and its calligraphy and beautiful

:42:14.:42:18.

green, and the ragged, old-fashioned, brutal flag. Firstly,

:42:19.:42:22.

it is square, because Mohammed's flag was supposed to be square. And

:42:23.:42:29.

they want to go back to that. That is the point. The calligraphy says

:42:30.:42:34.

sixth century. We are the rough and ready, original Sunni Islam. And the

:42:35.:42:40.

white is the stamp of Muhammad. It is very similar to some of the

:42:41.:42:47.

letters in the museum in Istanbul. That whole flag screams, we are the

:42:48.:42:51.

authentic voice of Islam, in opposition to the others. That is

:42:52.:42:57.

the politics of flags. You are fascinated by this. It is a vehicle.

:42:58.:43:00.

I like talking about current affairs.

:43:01.:43:02.

Earlier this week, the first ever US shale gas to be imported to the UK

:43:03.:43:05.

The shale gas, extracted using the controversial fracking

:43:06.:43:08.

technique, was bought by Ineos, the oil refinery at Grangemouth,

:43:09.:43:11.

because they say it was cheaper to import than extracting gas

:43:12.:43:16.

Also this week, Labour's shadow energy secretary,

:43:17.:43:20.

Barry Gardiner, announced at the party conference

:43:21.:43:22.

that his party would ban fracking in the UK if they form

:43:23.:43:25.

and they give rise to real environmental dangers.

:43:26.:43:32.

But technical problems can be overcome.

:43:33.:43:39.

So on their own, they are not a good enough reason to ban fracking.

:43:40.:43:43.

is that it locks us into an energy infrastructure

:43:44.:43:47.

long after our country needs to have moved to clean energy.

:43:48.:43:53.

that a future Labour government will ban fracking.

:43:54.:43:57.

We've been joined by the director of Ineos, Tom Crotty.

:43:58.:44:10.

What is your reaction to what Barry Gardiner said, band fracking if

:44:11.:44:16.

Labour comes to government? I think it is misguided and misinformed and

:44:17.:44:19.

it misses the point, which is that there are so many jobs in this

:44:20.:44:23.

country dependent on supplies of gas. We hit our homes with gas.

:44:24.:44:27.

Industry uses gas. To assume that there was a bright new tomorrow and

:44:28.:44:31.

we flick a switch and that goes away is naive. But is he right to say

:44:32.:44:38.

that fracking locks us into fossil fuels? No. Gas is a required fuel.

:44:39.:44:43.

We need gas, even with renewables. When the sun as much and in the wind

:44:44.:44:47.

is not blowing, you have to keep the lights on and the best back-up

:44:48.:44:50.

system is gas. It is a low carbon alternative. Well, you disagree with

:44:51.:44:56.

what Barry Gardiner is saying, which is hardly surprising, but he is

:44:57.:44:59.

tapping into public sentiment on this, as is Labour, because only one

:45:00.:45:01.

in five people support fracking. There are so many polls on this

:45:02.:45:11.

unlike the opinion polls they are very varied. We get a completely

:45:12.:45:17.

different result. The government's energy tracking polling show that

:45:18.:45:23.

just 31% supported. We are going out into village halls and town halls in

:45:24.:45:26.

the areas we are likely to do this and saying these are the facts,

:45:27.:45:29.

because people have not been presented with facts. When they get

:45:30.:45:33.

the fact they are in the Nutley more supportive. You talk about jobs and

:45:34.:45:38.

you have invested an awful lot into fracking, but instead of bringing in

:45:39.:45:41.

gas from America, why not just invest in North Sea oil and gas? We

:45:42.:45:49.

are. Invest more. We have put a lot of North Sea oil gas rigs but there

:45:50.:45:55.

is insufficient gas. It will be 80% import it in five years' time. Not

:45:56.:46:00.

producing our own gas will do is replaced those imports, keep that

:46:01.:46:03.

income within the UK, not having it going to regimes across the world

:46:04.:46:06.

who potentially unstable and not reliable. So why should we not keep

:46:07.:46:13.

that money in the UK? What do you think of government policy so far

:46:14.:46:17.

towards fracking? It has been very positive, the government have been

:46:18.:46:20.

supportive. Except it is not happening. We have started seismic

:46:21.:46:26.

testing in the areas where we have licenses. Now we have got the

:46:27.:46:29.

licences we are starting to work. Do you think government should have

:46:30.:46:35.

gone further and faster with fracking? Note, I think it was quite

:46:36.:46:44.

right to be cautious. It is the kind of thing that will only build

:46:45.:46:47.

confidence gradually of the regulatory regime is really tight

:46:48.:46:51.

and the environmental regimes are properly addressed. I spent a lot of

:46:52.:46:54.

time with officials going through exactly what had been done, talking

:46:55.:46:58.

to members of the industry and the regulators and became convinced that

:46:59.:47:01.

we had got it straight, and I think that that's stage it was right to

:47:02.:47:09.

license. The truth is whatever Barry Gardner says or doesn't say today

:47:10.:47:15.

the truth is the UK will be using gas fields to come. I happen to

:47:16.:47:19.

believe a passionate believer in climate change but we are going to

:47:20.:47:26.

need gas. Is fracking solution? Somebody who think they have the

:47:27.:47:30.

solution in the energy sphere you should be very sceptical about, it

:47:31.:47:33.

is a big mix of things was that this is one of the things that reduces

:47:34.:47:35.

our dependence on Mark Webb, Russia and the Middle East. Can you think

:47:36.:47:39.

of three parts of the world you would least likely want to be

:47:40.:47:43.

dependent on? It is clearly worth trying to produce our own. You say

:47:44.:47:47.

people are not being presented with the facts, what are the facts? How

:47:48.:47:51.

do you know the technology is completely safe? There is no such

:47:52.:47:57.

thing as 100% safe, when you take your car to the petrol station,

:47:58.:48:02.

there is a risk. Nothing is perfect, North Sea oil and gas has issues, we

:48:03.:48:06.

all know that. We will make sure this is done as safely as humanly

:48:07.:48:09.

possible because we are taking 20 years of learning from the US.

:48:10.:48:14.

Another is right, in the early days some rogue things went on, which are

:48:15.:48:18.

now regulated and we would not be a able to do in the UK. Regulations

:48:19.:48:23.

are very tight. Even so, it is not happening at the moment. There are

:48:24.:48:27.

licenses that have been taken, and applications have been made, and

:48:28.:48:30.

they haven't gone ahead, partly because of local opposition. One

:48:31.:48:35.

could say that the government, newcomer had been deaf to the

:48:36.:48:39.

anti-fracking campaigners who just wanted. It is very slowly and

:48:40.:48:46.

gradually happening, partly because we have given local population is

:48:47.:48:49.

the right, which I think they should have, to decide whether they wanted

:48:50.:48:52.

them in their own place. I think the regulation will make sure it is

:48:53.:48:56.

ecologically safe and sound, but of course if you have a great big

:48:57.:48:59.

object right next to your house, I don't know where you live, but if I

:49:00.:49:03.

had one next to mine, I would have something to say about it, so it is

:49:04.:49:06.

right that locals can treat it as a normal planning application, which

:49:07.:49:09.

means it doesn't happen overnight but we should not be upset about

:49:10.:49:14.

that. Doing these things slowly and gradually gaining popular acceptance

:49:15.:49:18.

of the right way. Will that be quick enough here? Take us to three years

:49:19.:49:24.

just to do the science, we won't do anything until we know the content.

:49:25.:49:27.

We will do test drilling, which will take two or three years before we

:49:28.:49:34.

get to think about developing. There is another option, of course,

:49:35.:49:38.

nuclear power, and Theresa May has finally given the green light to

:49:39.:49:44.

Hinckley. Do you support that? We think it is a sensible technology to

:49:45.:49:48.

invest in. You are talking about electricity. 80% of this country's

:49:49.:49:54.

houses are heated by gas. But you are still in favour of her giving

:49:55.:49:58.

the go-ahead to Hinkley Point? We are extremely supportive of nuclear

:49:59.:50:05.

investment, I am not sure that Hinckley is the best investment, it

:50:06.:50:09.

is very expensive, but it is a start. When you look at things like

:50:10.:50:13.

the strike price, it seems to be much more expensive, and not value

:50:14.:50:16.

for money for the taxpayer. No, I don't actually think that. At ?90 a

:50:17.:50:22.

kilowatt hour, the product from Hinckley can compete with any

:50:23.:50:29.

totally non-carbon if as fuel. With gas, if you are going to equal that,

:50:30.:50:32.

you would have to do something like carbon capture storage and those at

:50:33.:50:36.

the moment are expensive technologies. So you need in the

:50:37.:50:42.

system what is called baseload, the kinds of plants that will produce

:50:43.:50:45.

electricity at all times of day and night and are available when the

:50:46.:50:48.

wind is too high or too low and the sun isn't shining and salon. You can

:50:49.:50:53.

get that from two sources, from gas and from nuclear. If we build

:50:54.:50:56.

nuclear stations we can get it without the carbon, which is a help

:50:57.:51:01.

towards the world's reduction of carbon, and it is more or less the

:51:02.:51:04.

cheapest way of doing that at the moment. I think we can do better and

:51:05.:51:08.

I think subsequent generations of nuclear, especially small modular

:51:09.:51:13.

nuclear reactors will be more Finance Bill and probably in the end

:51:14.:51:17.

cheaper. Do you think Theresa May did irreparable damage with China by

:51:18.:51:22.

putting temporary hold on giving the go-ahead to Chinese investment? No,

:51:23.:51:27.

my experience of investing -- negotiating with the Chinese... You

:51:28.:51:35.

have negotiated with everyone! These are very grown-up, very subtle, very

:51:36.:51:39.

intelligent. They are very sensitive. But they understand

:51:40.:51:43.

things from a very long perspective, and a fuel leaks for Theresa to make

:51:44.:51:47.

her mind about this, perfectly sensible for a new permanence to do,

:51:48.:51:51.

will not fracture the relationships. I think the golden era as it's

:51:52.:51:55.

called of UK- Chinese relationships is still going strong and it is

:51:56.:51:58.

important it will be, because Chinese and India will be the

:51:59.:52:01.

dominant features of the landscape of the board of the next 30 to 40

:52:02.:52:06.

years. Wendy thing you will start packing? Emotionally within the next

:52:07.:52:12.

five years. Tom Crotty, thank you for coming in. As we all know in

:52:13.:52:20.

politics, just as in other walks of life,

:52:21.:52:21.

certain things go in and out of fashion.

:52:22.:52:23.

Take, for example, the idea that politicians should make speeches

:52:24.:52:26.

without a jacket and tie, with their shirt-sleeves rolled up.

:52:27.:52:28.

Or talking about what they like to listen to on their ipod.

:52:29.:52:31.

But do you remember last autumn's political hot

:52:32.:52:33.

Well, it turns out that the power pose fad was all in vain.

:52:34.:53:12.

This week, one of the body language experts who popularised the idea

:53:13.:53:15.

announced she no longer believes that 'power pose' effects -

:53:16.:53:17.

such as increasing confidence and appearing powerful - are real.

:53:18.:53:21.

We've been joined by James Brooke, co-director of 'Threshold' -

:53:22.:53:23.

thank you. Are you disappointed she has rubbished the idea? It is all

:53:24.:53:39.

about confidence, and we know people strongly associate confidence with

:53:40.:53:44.

competence, that is the holy Grail, what business leaders and

:53:45.:53:46.

politicians are always trying to achieve. The reason they hooked into

:53:47.:53:50.

it was about five years ago, the study you are talking about seem to

:53:51.:53:56.

interject the science bit. What is the science? The science, in theory,

:53:57.:53:59.

and it is disputed, with good reason, I'll come onto that. We have

:54:00.:54:04.

known for quite a long time that if we stand and act in a confident way,

:54:05.:54:08.

levels of self-reported confidence increase. We feel more confident if

:54:09.:54:14.

you act more confident. You set up straighter than! Indeed, I did. The

:54:15.:54:22.

study out of Harvard suggested not only do we feel more confident, but

:54:23.:54:27.

it changes the neuro hormonal balance in our brain. You mean it

:54:28.:54:31.

gives off and orphans or something? It seems to inject a bit of

:54:32.:54:36.

neuroscience, and there is a fair bit of evidence that if you put the

:54:37.:54:38.

word neuroscience in something people more readily believe it is

:54:39.:54:45.

real. So it is a self-fulfilling prophecy then. Precisely. But if you

:54:46.:54:50.

stand more confident way, you feel more confident and you are more

:54:51.:54:53.

likely to project what in the jargon is composed micro-signals that

:54:54.:54:58.

suggest greater levels of confidence. We know that works. What

:54:59.:55:03.

is questionable is the science bit. Do you think it worked for these

:55:04.:55:07.

politicians? There is one of George Osborne standing with his legs

:55:08.:55:10.

apart, does he look more powerful and confident? The key thing is not

:55:11.:55:17.

get caught practising it, so people can see all the strings. My guess is

:55:18.:55:23.

that was taken almost in rehearsal. What he is probably trying to do is

:55:24.:55:28.

associate that space with a space where he feels powerful. I'm not

:55:29.:55:32.

sure it was in rehearsal, if it isn't rehearsal, how does he look? I

:55:33.:55:37.

think he is slightly showing the strings there. The science bit is

:55:38.:55:41.

disputed, and I think that is important to say. If we are talking

:55:42.:55:46.

about this stuff, I would say this is a hypothesis. There have been

:55:47.:55:51.

studies that suggest it has no effect on the neuro, more balanced

:55:52.:55:53.

that if it works for you, do it. Over there I think he has

:55:54.:55:57.

exaggerated a little too much. We had pictures of George Osborne,

:55:58.:56:01.

Theresa May, Michael Gove, did you get the memo? No. I suspect people

:56:02.:56:07.

knew that I didn't matter from that point of view. LAUGHTER

:56:08.:56:11.

I'm sure that's not the case! And secondly they may have remembered

:56:12.:56:16.

that for the ghastly period when I was Shadow Chancellor and sent off

:56:17.:56:20.

somebody to teach me to do these things, I turned into some of

:56:21.:56:23.

couldn't bear and I don't think anyone else could bear much, and I

:56:24.:56:26.

have never done it since and I don't believe in all this garbage. I think

:56:27.:56:30.

you should just be yourself, and that is the only thing you can do.

:56:31.:56:35.

Come on, James, show me the power pose. Not that I stand that often in

:56:36.:56:40.

the studio, but if I were. I am going to show you what I sense

:56:41.:56:45.

George Osborne was coached to do. The crucial thing is don't do it

:56:46.:56:50.

live, do it as preparation. You mean like I'm doing now? OK. The first

:56:51.:56:58.

thing is, he looks like he is expecting a 747 to fly through his

:56:59.:57:02.

legs. Not very elegant. So exaggerated. The idea is when we are

:57:03.:57:09.

at our most confident we take up the mess space, so that exaggerates it.

:57:10.:57:13.

So if you are just hands on the hips. It is a quite natural, isn't

:57:14.:57:19.

it? It is, you could call it the gunslinger pose, so it is a bit Gary

:57:20.:57:24.

glitter, or it could be wonder woman. Do you think I project

:57:25.:57:29.

confidence here? No, I think you look like somebody... LAUGHTER

:57:30.:57:36.

The hypothesis... We haven't got much time. Not only are you feeling

:57:37.:57:41.

more confident Chameera level of circulating testosterone has

:57:42.:57:46.

increased. Oh great! The key thing is a study has come out, about two

:57:47.:57:49.

years ago, that suggested it makes no difference to testosterone. The

:57:50.:57:53.

crucial thing is if it works for you, do it, take the science bit

:57:54.:57:58.

with a big pinch of salt. I'm not convinced, but one last pose. James,

:57:59.:58:03.

thank you very much. I think we have just got time before we go to find

:58:04.:58:07.

out the answer to our quiz, Oliver let them.

:58:08.:58:08.

The question was where was the 2010 Conservative Manifesto -

:58:09.:58:11.

written by our guest Oliver Letwin - launched?

:58:12.:58:14.

Was it a) Battersea Power Station in London?

:58:15.:58:15.

C) The Lowry Arts Centre in Salford Quays?

:58:16.:58:19.

Or d) A smoothie bar in Notting Hill?

:58:20.:58:21.

So, Oliver, what's the correct answer?

:58:22.:58:26.

Ever since you posted this, I have been desperately searching my

:58:27.:58:35.

memory. How can you not remember? I remember quite a lot about that was

:58:36.:58:38.

in the manifesto and I can even remember sitting at a bench while

:58:39.:58:43.

David was... You didn't put it in a bit nearby? I haven't got the

:58:44.:58:45.

slightest idea. Extraordinary scenes, here.

:58:46.:58:47.

The atmosphere, absolutely electric.

:58:48.:59:13.

Jo Coburn is joined by former Conservative cabinet minister Oliver Letwin to discuss EU trade negotiations, the possible expansion of Heathrow and whether future energy policy will rely on fracking.


Download Subtitles

SRT

ASS