29/09/2016 Daily Politics


29/09/2016

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Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.

:00:37.:00:39.

As International Trade Secretary Liam Fox sets out his vision

:00:40.:00:49.

for post-Brexit trade deals, we look at the challenges

:00:50.:00:51.

Is Theresa May about to give the green light

:00:52.:00:57.

With rumours of a possible Commons vote next month,

:00:58.:01:01.

we'll ask former Government bigwig, Oliver Letwin.

:01:02.:01:05.

After Labour announces it would implement a total ban

:01:06.:01:08.

on fracking for gas, does the controversial technique

:01:09.:01:11.

We'll hear from the energy boss who's just imported a tanker

:01:12.:01:16.

And does how a politician stands make a difference to how

:01:17.:01:23.

We'll discuss whether "power-posing" is all it's cracked up to be.

:01:24.:01:35.

All that in the next hour and with us for the whole

:01:36.:01:38.

of the programme today, a man who has spent the last six

:01:39.:01:41.

year at the heart of Government, serving throughout the coalition

:01:42.:01:44.

as minister for government policy and before that,

:01:45.:01:46.

many years at the centre of the Conservative

:01:47.:01:48.

Let's kick off with the reports this morning that Theresa May could be

:01:49.:01:56.

preparing to give the green light to Heathrow expansion-

:01:57.:01:58.

despite opposition from some Conservative MPs.

:01:59.:02:02.

The Financial Times reports on its front page today

:02:03.:02:05.

that the Conservative Party chairman, Patrick McLoughlin,

:02:06.:02:08.

has been crunching the numbers and that he believes the PM

:02:09.:02:12.

would win a vote in parliament on the controversial plans.

:02:13.:02:15.

Oliver Letwin, you were on the cabinet committee for airport

:02:16.:02:19.

expansion until you left Government this summer -

:02:20.:02:21.

do you think Theresa May is going to push ahead with this?

:02:22.:02:27.

I have no way of telling. As soon as you leave, you know nothing about

:02:28.:02:36.

what is going on. Did you get any impression before? Not really. But I

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think it is pretty certain that the government will have to decide in

:02:42.:02:45.

favour of one or the other. I don't believe we can do without some

:02:46.:02:49.

airport expansion in the London and south-east area, so the question is

:02:50.:02:55.

which and where. If we look at Heathrow, we know there is fierce

:02:56.:02:59.

opposition in the Cabinet, not least from Justine Greening and Boris

:03:00.:03:02.

Johnson. So do you think the Prime Minister has enough votes to drive

:03:03.:03:08.

through a policy of expansion to airports? That, I also don't know

:03:09.:03:11.

because I am not the Chief Whip and I have not done the analysis, but my

:03:12.:03:15.

guess is that probably, across Parliament as a whole, there would

:03:16.:03:19.

be a majority in favour. I would be surprised if there were not. I would

:03:20.:03:24.

vote for Heathrow expansion because I think it is a natural thing. It is

:03:25.:03:29.

a hard and it has advantages from that point of view. But what will

:03:30.:03:34.

she do with the members of her Cabinet who would vote against,

:03:35.:03:39.

Boris Johnson and Justine Greening? I don't know, but one way of dealing

:03:40.:03:44.

with it is to have a free vote. And she could then rely on enough Labour

:03:45.:03:48.

support as well as support from the Tory backbenches. The Liberal

:03:49.:03:53.

Democrats only have eight MPs more obviously. This has now got to a

:03:54.:03:56.

point where delay would be seen at by many as the worst option. Delay

:03:57.:04:05.

would be the worst option. My guess... But you have been at the

:04:06.:04:09.

heart of government for a long time and this issue has been discussed

:04:10.:04:14.

time and time again. But I am not informed about the SNP. My guess is

:04:15.:04:18.

that from a Scottish point of view, having Heathrow expand would be a

:04:19.:04:21.

good thing because there are a lot of flights to and from... I think

:04:22.:04:29.

they would vote in favour. But from what you know, do you think most of

:04:30.:04:33.

your colleagues have now been persuaded that expansion at Heathrow

:04:34.:04:38.

is a necessity from an economic point of view? I would guess that

:04:39.:04:42.

there is a substantial view across Tory MPs as a whole that we need

:04:43.:04:46.

expansion of one airport or the other. I doubt there are huge

:04:47.:04:53.

passions pro one or the other. My guess is that whichever the

:04:54.:04:56.

government goes forward probably get a majority.

:04:57.:04:57.

Our guest of the day, Oliver Letwin, was responsible for writing the 2010

:04:58.:05:02.

Conservative Manifesto, and so the question for today is -

:05:03.:05:04.

Was it Battersea Power Station in London, The Eden Project

:05:05.:05:11.

in Cornwall, The Lowry Arts Centre in Salford Quays a smoothie

:05:12.:05:15.

At the end of the show, Oliver will give us the correct answer.

:05:16.:05:21.

Liam Fox, Theresa May's international trade secretary,

:05:22.:05:24.

has been setting out his vision for post-Brexit trade

:05:25.:05:27.

Speaking in Manchester, Liam Fox said the UK has a golden

:05:28.:05:32.

opportunity to forge a new role for ourselves in the world.

:05:33.:05:42.

Where progress has stalled at the multilateral level, the UK must be

:05:43.:05:50.

ready to look at more bespoke Ilori lateral and bilateral arrangements

:05:51.:05:52.

to make sure the global marketplace remains fair and free. We cannot

:05:53.:05:59.

allow foot dragging by those unwilling to seize the benefits of

:06:00.:06:03.

free trade to hinder progress on important issues for the rest, such

:06:04.:06:10.

as eradicating nontariff barriers in services, digital or intellectual

:06:11.:06:11.

property. Much of the focus so far has been

:06:12.:06:12.

on what relationship Britain After all, the UK can't enter

:06:13.:06:15.

into formal negotiations with any other country while it's

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still a member of the EU - so that's two years

:06:22.:06:24.

after article 50 is triggered. Our Ellie has been talking to two

:06:25.:06:27.

former international trade negotiators to see what they think

:06:28.:06:29.

of the longer term job about the new trade

:06:30.:06:32.

agreement with Britain. To prosper in the future,

:06:33.:06:39.

it must be again, but getting other countries to queue up to sign

:06:40.:06:48.

on the dotted line will not be easy. How much Britain continues to look

:06:49.:06:52.

to Europe will affect relationships and deals

:06:53.:06:54.

for countries further afield. It would be difficult for us

:06:55.:06:59.

to have a free trade deal with the UK or for the UK

:07:00.:07:02.

to negotiate free-trade deals with countries outside the EU if it

:07:03.:07:06.

stays in the single market or if it opts for a customs

:07:07.:07:10.

union with the EU. Maybe some advantages for Britain

:07:11.:07:12.

in doing that, but it's hard to see how we would negotiate a free trade

:07:13.:07:15.

agreement with UK alone The EU and Canada are about to sign

:07:16.:07:18.

a comprehensive economic and trade agreement,

:07:19.:07:22.

or Ceta, which will eliminate nearly There is talk in Westminster that

:07:23.:07:25.

Britain should push So what does one of the negotiators

:07:26.:07:30.

who worked on that deal think For Canada, it would be working

:07:31.:07:35.

out its economic relationship with other partners in North America

:07:36.:07:41.

and then going on to the rest I assume the UK will pursue

:07:42.:07:44.

the same kind of analysis - "We have to sort things

:07:45.:07:49.

out with Europe first". From there, it needs

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to get its relationship The WTO is kind of the baseline

:07:52.:07:54.

from which it can build other free-trade agreements with either

:07:55.:08:02.

bilateral or multilateral partners. It's like having a floor in place

:08:03.:08:09.

so that you can build the stairs. Most of Britain's trade

:08:10.:08:13.

negotiations will be the new Department for

:08:14.:08:15.

International Trade. But as well as a new sign,

:08:16.:08:18.

the department will also need some We haven't needed them

:08:19.:08:22.

for more than 40 years, I have been told trade

:08:23.:08:26.

negotiators from Canada, New Zealand and Australia have

:08:27.:08:33.

already been in to gain real life -- to talk about their experiences

:08:34.:08:46.

of negotiation. Finally, a little birdie told me

:08:47.:08:51.

that former foreign trade negotiators have also been

:08:52.:08:53.

approached by the Government Then there are the rumours that

:08:54.:08:55.

Britain could just borrow some. We think the ideal would be for us

:08:56.:09:03.

to lend a few of our negotiators with Australia so that

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we can get an optimal outcome, but perhaps the British

:09:14.:09:21.

government would draw They run courses in negotiation

:09:22.:09:23.

at the London Business School. Crucially, the tutors insist

:09:24.:09:27.

that the skills are easily learned, Experts estimate that Britain

:09:28.:09:29.

could need up to 700 trade negotiators over several years

:09:30.:09:33.

to get the job done. We've been joined from Cardiff

:09:34.:09:35.

by the Ukip member of the welsh assembly, Mark Reckless,

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and from Brussels by the Liberal Democrat

:09:39.:09:40.

MEP Catherine Bearder. Oliver Letwin, you were involved in

:09:41.:09:55.

this before you lost your job. Do you favour the UK cutting loose in

:09:56.:09:58.

what they call a source of hard Brexit from the customs union, and

:09:59.:10:02.

then try to negotiate some sort of relationship with the EU? I don't

:10:03.:10:07.

think those decisions you can make unilaterally. The question is what

:10:08.:10:14.

is doable with our EU partners. And what is doable? I don't know yet.

:10:15.:10:19.

What I am clear as about what we need to get out of it. The first

:10:20.:10:22.

thing we need is clarity that we will be able to sell retail,

:10:23.:10:27.

financial and professional services into the European markets. That is

:10:28.:10:32.

crucial for the City of London. So access to the single market.

:10:33.:10:38.

Specifically for retail and financial services. Secondly, we

:10:39.:10:42.

need a continuation of the zero tariff regime we have on exports and

:10:43.:10:47.

imports of goods, which is relatively easy to achieve because

:10:48.:10:51.

it is in the mutual interest. Thirdly, this is what makes the

:10:52.:10:54.

first in particular are very difficult, we need to reassert what

:10:55.:10:58.

the British people have voted for, which is control over migration. The

:10:59.:11:01.

question is, how to put that package together. Some say you want to have

:11:02.:11:09.

your cake and eat it. Correct. But would you be prepared to take some

:11:10.:11:14.

element of freedom of movement in order to guarantee your first point,

:11:15.:11:20.

the retail services and financial services sector being preserved?

:11:21.:11:23.

Speaking for myself if I was a one man show and the only person in the

:11:24.:11:28.

UK, yes, I would. But the people of our country didn't vote for that.

:11:29.:11:33.

They voted for absolute control over migration. Mark Reckless, what trade

:11:34.:11:37.

agreement should we have now and how should we go about it? Well, we have

:11:38.:11:41.

trade arrangements now where we trade freely with the European

:11:42.:11:46.

Union, and I expect they will be maintained. They are the status quo.

:11:47.:11:52.

It may be described as a temporary arrangement, but the reality is that

:11:53.:11:55.

five people are employed in the EU exporting to the UK for every three

:11:56.:12:00.

who are employed in the UK exporting to the EU, so it is strongly in our

:12:01.:12:05.

mutual interest and I expect that will continue. There was an

:12:06.:12:09.

expectation that both you and Oliver Letwin hold onto, which is the idea

:12:10.:12:13.

that because of the arrangements in terms of exports, Germany will be

:12:14.:12:16.

keen to cut that sort of deal. But actually, the head of Germany's

:12:17.:12:19.

industrial federation has said there will be no access to the single

:12:20.:12:24.

market for the UK without freedom of movement. Then there would be

:12:25.:12:25.

significant tariffs on his members' goods being

:12:26.:12:45.

sold to the UK. He seems prepared to take that risk. I think that is

:12:46.:12:47.

unlikely and I wonder if you correctly understood what he said.

:12:48.:12:50.

They have put out statements before saying free trade must be maintained

:12:51.:12:52.

with the UK. So Catherine Bearder, it is bluff from the Germans and

:12:53.:12:54.

also from Matteo Renzi in Italy today to try and say that there will

:12:55.:12:58.

not be a favourable deal for the UK. In the end, practical matters will

:12:59.:13:00.

come to the fore, particularly when it comes to business. You have to

:13:01.:13:07.

get it right. We don't have access to the single market. We are a full

:13:08.:13:13.

member of the European Union. In the same way that Wales is a full member

:13:14.:13:19.

of the UK. So there are no restrictions on trade. If we are

:13:20.:13:27.

coming out, they will say that the rules are that you are a full member

:13:28.:13:31.

and you have to sign up to full movement. If you are outside that,

:13:32.:13:40.

the rules will be different. America trades with the European Union.

:13:41.:13:45.

There American banks working within the European Union. They have to

:13:46.:13:50.

abide by the rules. At the moment, as a member, we don't have all that

:13:51.:14:00.

rigmarole. The American banks will have regulatory equivalents of what

:14:01.:14:12.

happens in the EU, and that will allow all banks within the EU to be

:14:13.:14:19.

able to passport services into the EU. So I don't see that as a

:14:20.:14:25.

challenging area. What I do think we will be able to do is open up a

:14:26.:14:28.

third markets overseas, particularly to our tradable services which

:14:29.:14:34.

offers real opportunities to improve the prosperity of the United Kingdom

:14:35.:14:38.

in the future. Catherine Bearder, is that not possible? Well, why would

:14:39.:14:44.

the European Union give it to us? At the moment, we are a full member. We

:14:45.:14:50.

abide by the rules, and that is accepted. Why would they give us the

:14:51.:14:57.

same access when we are outside? Because that is what its own rules

:14:58.:15:02.

say. Oliver Letwin, you seem to be facing the prospect that you could

:15:03.:15:07.

not have both and that you would be prepared to give on freedom of

:15:08.:15:11.

movement, which Theresa May has indicated she feels Britain cannot

:15:12.:15:14.

do because of the result of the referendum. If that is the case,

:15:15.:15:19.

what would happen to things like passport in for financial services?

:15:20.:15:20.

How disastrous would it be? I think Mark is right that Miffid2

:15:21.:15:36.

allows countries to export the financial services without going

:15:37.:15:42.

through great great morals. The question is Binny to get some kind

:15:43.:15:48.

of guarantee we would continue to have that access but they're all

:15:49.:15:54.

sorts of things we have to trade in this very complicated situation.

:15:55.:15:58.

There are also lots of things we need to arrange. My experience of

:15:59.:16:00.

negotiating, which I have done quite a lot of over the last many years is

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if you reduce these things too stark simplicity is no way that goes down

:16:07.:16:09.

well on TV so to speak, it all goes wrong. But you have to do is very

:16:10.:16:12.

subtly unpick all of the many elements and work through them so

:16:13.:16:16.

you get a package. You should not think it on the EU and us. There are

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27 other member states. You have to knit this thing together. So it will

:16:22.:16:31.

become bigoted and take a long time. A new report says by cronies to

:16:32.:16:36.

spend ?500 million per year on new staff. Brother to get the EU out of

:16:37.:16:42.

unnecessary speculation, we will engage in more bureaucracy to try

:16:43.:16:45.

and unpick this very complicated process you have just outlined. You

:16:46.:16:51.

have to put this in some context, ?65 million a year compared to ?700

:16:52.:16:56.

billion a year. If you get the deal you want. That is 10,000 times as

:16:57.:17:02.

much. If you are going to get the deal you want and we don't know that

:17:03.:17:07.

at this particular stage. There are reports in the Financial Times that

:17:08.:17:10.

says there was a shortage of space, staff don't have anywhere to work in

:17:11.:17:14.

the Brexit department. Laptops are being shared. These are the kinds of

:17:15.:17:19.

problems you get over matters of weeks, of course it is makes good

:17:20.:17:25.

press but it is very dreary. There is a big game of multi dimensional

:17:26.:17:28.

chess that has to be played, and it is going to take a long time to get

:17:29.:17:32.

it right. I think Theresa is a very good long-distance persistent

:17:33.:17:37.

negotiator and I suspect at the end we will get our cake and be able to

:17:38.:17:41.

eat it. Catherine Debrunner did, though you go. It takes an awful

:17:42.:17:48.

long time, Whitehall has its own problems and it will gobble up a lot

:17:49.:17:51.

of that money promised to the NHS in the referendum. It will take years.

:17:52.:17:57.

The Canadian free trade agreement has taken years. And store has to be

:17:58.:18:03.

ratified. Yes, and they are now really concerned because if we are

:18:04.:18:07.

outside that a large part of the trade agreement was because the UK

:18:08.:18:12.

was involved. So it has to be done sector by sector, you are talking

:18:13.:18:17.

about toys, chemicals, drugs, agriculture and the chemicals you

:18:18.:18:21.

can use and the methods. It just takes forever to do a trade

:18:22.:18:30.

agreement. At the moment, our businesses have access, and we are

:18:31.:18:36.

making those rules. Outside it will take forever. Are you going to tell

:18:37.:18:40.

those businesses that they can just go and wait for five years while we

:18:41.:18:48.

are busy negotiating? What about the uncertainty question, Catherine

:18:49.:18:52.

Bearded, that is raised, because if the UK isn't definitely leaving the

:18:53.:18:56.

customs union, and I suppose we don't yet know, in a way what is

:18:57.:19:01.

Liam Fox going to do over the next few years as head of International

:19:02.:19:07.

trade? Because while we are still a member, we are forgiven from

:19:08.:19:09.

negotiating our own bilateral agreements with third parties. We

:19:10.:19:19.

are forbidden from agreeing them, we can discuss. I think it is quite

:19:20.:19:23.

clear we are going to leave the customs union. But there can be

:19:24.:19:26.

lengthy trade discussions but while they are going on, the status quo is

:19:27.:19:33.

that we have free trade and open access, so unless Catherine Bearder

:19:34.:19:39.

thinks that we will pay far more of that than we would then what will

:19:40.:19:43.

happen is there will be a transitional arrangement where we

:19:44.:19:46.

have the status quo, we transition to whatever these longer-term

:19:47.:19:52.

arrangements are back on the basis that we can negotiate with Canada,

:19:53.:19:56.

we can negotiate with the United States, and rather than having this

:19:57.:19:59.

very complex, restrictive and frankly protectionist negotiation

:20:00.:20:05.

that the EU can, we can open up my kids much more and go back to the

:20:06.:20:09.

principle of actually having mutual recognition of our regulation.

:20:10.:20:14.

Instead of agreeing a single set, everyone has to fly to trade,

:20:15.:20:17.

actually as long as you are compliant with one set of

:20:18.:20:20.

regulations, then your goods and hopefully many sector services are

:20:21.:20:26.

accepted as well. Mark Reckless, think you have lost your earpiece,

:20:27.:20:31.

over the net when, are you happy with the three Brexiteers? Yes, a

:20:32.:20:37.

very formidable team. Do you think they will get on? The media is

:20:38.:20:40.

reporting that is already some sort of discord between the three of them

:20:41.:20:43.

but is it an impossible task for them as a trio to come together and

:20:44.:20:48.

bring forward some sort of coherent plan when they are approaching it

:20:49.:20:54.

from such different angles? I was constantly told during the years of

:20:55.:20:57.

the coalition that it would fall apart. Politicians are grown-ups,

:20:58.:21:01.

they work these things out, of course it makes good press. We might

:21:02.:21:06.

put it back to you if it does. The critical point is that it is not in

:21:07.:21:11.

the end anyone else, my whole experience over the last few years

:21:12.:21:14.

is that when you are negotiating these kinds of things, in the end it

:21:15.:21:18.

is done head of government to head of government. This is Theresa may

:21:19.:21:22.

have will have to carry this. I have had many years of experience and I

:21:23.:21:26.

don't envy the people on the other side of that table, because she's

:21:27.:21:31.

very good at it. In the end it would be her that drives it, in the end it

:21:32.:21:37.

is down to Theresa. Catherine Bearder and Mark Reckless, thank you

:21:38.:21:40.

very much, we will be revisiting this.

:21:41.:21:51.

My guest of the day today - Oliver Letwin - has been at the top

:21:52.:21:55.

of the Conservative Party, and at the heart of Government,

:21:56.:21:57.

But for much of that time he's kept a very low profile, beavering away

:21:58.:22:01.

behind the scenes - ensuring the smooth running

:22:02.:22:03.

of the coalition government from 2010 to 2015, helping

:22:04.:22:06.

David Cameron to implement his 2015 manifesto, and finally -

:22:07.:22:08.

for just two weeks - leading the government's fledgling

:22:09.:22:10.

Brexit unit after the referendum in July.

:22:11.:22:12.

Mark Lobel has been checking out Mr Letwin's political journey.

:22:13.:22:15.

Advising Margaret Thatcher on education, Oliver Letwin

:22:16.:22:21.

was already a Number Ten insider in his 20s.

:22:22.:22:23.

When Mrs Thatcher left Downing Street, this Eton-educated

:22:24.:22:25.

son of academics sought to enter parliament himself, and spoke

:22:26.:22:27.

to the BBC about how to give state schools a better sense of identity.

:22:28.:22:31.

Simple things, like giving them school songs and school

:22:32.:22:34.

histories and other things, which are traditional

:22:35.:22:36.

After two failed bids to become an MP, Oliver Letwin's efforts

:22:37.:22:40.

blossomed in West Dorset, just as New Labour took over.

:22:41.:22:45.

He's caught the eye of Tory leaders ever since, first

:22:46.:22:48.

in William Hague's Treasury team, but things got wobbly as the 2001

:22:49.:22:51.

general election approached, when he briefed the FT that a Tory

:22:52.:22:53.

government would cut taxes by much more than first thought.

:22:54.:23:00.

Then Chancellor Gordon Brown held up a Wanted poster.

:23:01.:23:09.

Bloodhounds were employed to sniff him out.

:23:10.:23:11.

When he finally resurfaced to find the Tories still in opposition,

:23:12.:23:14.

new leader Iain Duncan Smith made him a Shadow Home Secretary.

:23:15.:23:19.

And the next new leader, Michael Howard, appointed him

:23:20.:23:21.

Shadow Chancellor as they fought the 2005 election together.

:23:22.:23:25.

Oliver is, as everybody knows, very clever.

:23:26.:23:29.

He's got a very inventive and fertile mind.

:23:30.:23:33.

So I didn't really think hard about appointing him

:23:34.:23:37.

He's quite transparent, and you don't have to worry,

:23:38.:23:43.

as you do sometimes with some people, over whether they're playing

:23:44.:23:46.

games or what lies behind whatever they're suggesting.

:23:47.:23:52.

With Oliver, what you see is what you get.

:23:53.:23:58.

Mr Letwin was also one of the earliest backers

:23:59.:24:00.

of the next Tory leader, David Cameron, and having

:24:01.:24:03.

made his own ideological journey more towards the centre,

:24:04.:24:05.

quickly became the future PM's policy chief as the 2010

:24:06.:24:07.

With a hung parliament, he became a chief negotiator

:24:08.:24:13.

during coalition talks with the Liberal Democrats.

:24:14.:24:17.

He's somebody that you get a strong impression is in it

:24:18.:24:20.

for the public interest and not for his personal interest.

:24:21.:24:24.

So he was a very easy, engaging characters to work with.

:24:25.:24:29.

And even on those occasions where he was having to champion

:24:30.:24:31.

things for his party that he didn't always believe in,

:24:32.:24:34.

he had the decency to look uncomfortable and embarrassed.

:24:35.:24:37.

During the coalition, the two men met to work

:24:38.:24:39.

through policy areas, from the Queen's Speech to regular

:24:40.:24:41.

I guess we had a form of cafeteria government,

:24:42.:24:51.

where Oliver and I met once a week, I think it was a Tuesday morning

:24:52.:24:54.

at 7.30 in the Downing Street cafeteria on the lowest

:24:55.:24:57.

And over a kipper or some porridge or something, we would

:24:58.:25:01.

have a list of five, six or seven difficult issues,

:25:02.:25:03.

and we would work through them and see if we could gain agreement

:25:04.:25:06.

so that as little as possible needed to go to Cameron and Nick Clegg.

:25:07.:25:12.

But the Cabinet Office minister's attempts to keep a low profile came

:25:13.:25:15.

unstuck when he was caught dumping Parliamentary papers

:25:16.:25:17.

and constituents' letters in a park bin.

:25:18.:25:21.

I have to apologise to constituents who wrote to me,

:25:22.:25:24.

because I think you're right, on reflection, that I shouldn't have

:25:25.:25:26.

David Cameron stuck by his man until his last political breath,

:25:27.:25:33.

appointing him to lead a Brexit unit last June.

:25:34.:25:39.

Perhaps Mr Letwin's desire not to climb the political ladder helped

:25:40.:25:42.

convince Tory leader after Tory leader to keep him

:25:43.:25:44.

But it was pulled from under his feet, with the rest

:25:45.:25:54.

of Cameron's old guard, by Theresa May.

:25:55.:26:02.

Well, Oliver Wright when, hope you enjoyed that trip down memory lane.

:26:03.:26:07.

Let's return to one of those intriguing moments, when you put

:26:08.:26:11.

confidential vapours into the bin at Saint James 's Park on five separate

:26:12.:26:16.

occasions, why? Just to correct you, they were not confidential papers,

:26:17.:26:20.

they were letters from constituents. They were not confidential papers,

:26:21.:26:26.

just to be clear. And I shouldn't have put them in the bin, no, I

:26:27.:26:29.

should have shredded them, which I have done since. Was just an

:26:30.:26:33.

absentmindedness, just one of those things? I really didn't think about

:26:34.:26:37.

it, and I should have thought about it. I was in the habit then as I am

:26:38.:26:42.

now of dictating my constituents correspondence early in the morning,

:26:43.:26:46.

and I was walking in the park are needed to get rid of them, and I

:26:47.:26:49.

should have put them in the shredder, which I have done since.

:26:50.:26:53.

In terms of the long span had been in power in one way or another, but

:26:54.:26:59.

the Jews the most sleep over? Oh, I'm not prone to losing sleep, but I

:27:00.:27:06.

buried a lot -- Watt what did you lose the most sleep over. I would

:27:07.:27:11.

turn on the radio or read my blackberry, which I have a summary

:27:12.:27:14.

of the overnight use and think I have to do something about that.

:27:15.:27:17.

Then I wouldn't rush into Downing Street and try to get the machine to

:27:18.:27:21.

do something about it. It was a constant business of trying to

:27:22.:27:24.

manage things that problems did not turn into crises. Which ones did?

:27:25.:27:29.

Brother occasions, policies, that ended up becoming crises? I think of

:27:30.:27:35.

the poll tax with the one of them. Were those when you said a mistake?

:27:36.:27:40.

That wasn't when I was in office, of course, I think the poll tax was a

:27:41.:27:46.

disaster. But you were an adviser. That was a very long, slow burn

:27:47.:27:50.

thing. I left halfway through the middle of that thing. So you didn't

:27:51.:27:55.

lose sleep? No, because I was not implement in the policy. I think in

:27:56.:27:58.

retrospect it was completely the wrong policy but that is a different

:27:59.:28:02.

matter. I am talking about a crisis or a problem in the things happening

:28:03.:28:06.

moment to moment. As an example, almost every winter we have problems

:28:07.:28:10.

with the flooding. The nation has problems with the flooding. And it

:28:11.:28:15.

continues. It does, but gradually I think we are getting it under some

:28:16.:28:20.

kind of control. I used to wake up worried endlessly, have we done

:28:21.:28:23.

enough, what can we do to respond to it, how can we deal with this

:28:24.:28:27.

particular incident? But then things will just blow up out of nowhere.

:28:28.:28:34.

Once we had a massive problem with backlog of passport agency

:28:35.:28:36.

applications and you have to do with that. What about the cutting taxes

:28:37.:28:41.

by 20 billion in 2001, when we couldn't find you? I was a

:28:42.:28:44.

correspondent at the time and we were looking for you. I was rushing

:28:45.:28:49.

around West Dorset making speeches, you could have family perfectly

:28:50.:28:53.

easily! First of the think it was very silly in retrospect to arrange

:28:54.:28:57.

for me to disappear. What should have happened as I should have been

:28:58.:29:00.

sent on a podium to expand exactly what I was saying, and I learn from

:29:01.:29:03.

that episode, that when things go wrong you are much better in front

:29:04.:29:08.

of cameras than out of you. . You think of the Andrew Lansley has an

:29:09.:29:11.

social care bill, you posted once you had been through it line by line

:29:12.:29:15.

but given how divisive it ended up, how much worse was that before it

:29:16.:29:19.

was published? I think the direction of that was right. But I think we

:29:20.:29:26.

made some errors, because I don't think we realised at the time just

:29:27.:29:32.

how difficult it is to knit together the various aspects of health and

:29:33.:29:37.

social care. And I think that we really have been learning over the

:29:38.:29:40.

past few years as a country is that in the end it is about the person,

:29:41.:29:44.

and they don't come in sort of strict bureaucratic pockets. This

:29:45.:29:50.

elderly and frail person is not a patient in the NHS, or an object of

:29:51.:29:54.

care by social care, it is one person and we need one integrated

:29:55.:29:58.

system to look after them. And gradually I think Jeremy Hunt is

:29:59.:30:03.

getting towards that. Do you wish you had killed that the dead? Think

:30:04.:30:06.

you would have been better to have attended at that time to the

:30:07.:30:11.

creation of the seven-day NHS as we can to do later, rather than getting

:30:12.:30:16.

distracted interchanges, which while I think you are perfectly sensible

:30:17.:30:19.

in principle, did not advance the really difficult agendas. You have

:30:20.:30:25.

been involved as we have now uncovered in people in similar

:30:26.:30:27.

different areas of government. Would you rather just have had your own

:30:28.:30:30.

department, you know, one of the big departments yourself to run? Oh no,

:30:31.:30:36.

not at all, partly because it is totally fascinating to be at the

:30:37.:30:39.

centre of government. You really feel you are making a difference Day

:30:40.:30:43.

by day. But partly also because it is a question of each person having

:30:44.:30:46.

their own strengths and weaknesses, and there were colleagues of mine

:30:47.:30:49.

vastly better at front line politics than I was ever going to be. But I

:30:50.:30:54.

think that I was able to do very often was to get to the bottom of

:30:55.:30:58.

what was really going on in the machine, and in the country, and

:30:59.:31:01.

then try to find some way of correcting what was happening.

:31:02.:31:08.

Not one department you would have fancied running? No, I was happy

:31:09.:31:17.

where I was. Greg Oliver's diaries say you were predicting that Michael

:31:18.:31:20.

Gove would win the Conservative leadership election. Which one?

:31:21.:31:25.

After the referendum. Telemachus sorry, I thought you were talking

:31:26.:31:32.

about 2010. Sorry, I am taking you backwards and forwards across the

:31:33.:31:36.

history of the Conservative Party. I thought it was more likely to be a

:31:37.:31:40.

Brexiteer than not. And I thought therefore that it would be Boris.

:31:41.:31:45.

Then it was clear that Boris was not going to win because he had stepped

:31:46.:31:48.

down, so the question was over Michael Gove or Andrea. As it turned

:31:49.:31:54.

out, it was Andrea. In the end, I think the Conservative Party made

:31:55.:31:58.

the right choice. Even though you thought it should have been a

:31:59.:32:03.

Brexiteer? No, I thought it would be. So you did not favour a

:32:04.:32:07.

Brexiteer like Michael Gove or Boris Johnson, you just presumed it would

:32:08.:32:14.

be? Correct. I can now say I own view. I swore a vow of silence at

:32:15.:32:18.

the time because I was preparing for whoever was going to be the next!.

:32:19.:32:22.

My view was that Theresa was the right candidate, and I still hold by

:32:23.:32:27.

that -- she was going to be the next Prime Minister. Ken Clarke has said

:32:28.:32:35.

David Cameron will be remembered as being the man who made the mistake

:32:36.:32:38.

of taking us out of the European Union. I think David Cameron will be

:32:39.:32:42.

remembered for lots of things, rescuing this country from the brink

:32:43.:32:46.

of bankruptcy and initiating public service reform. Of course, people

:32:47.:32:50.

will also remember the referendum. There will also remember other

:32:51.:32:53.

referendums which went the other way. Scotland was a great success.

:32:54.:32:58.

What is your assessment of the Remain campaign now, bearing in mind

:32:59.:33:04.

that it failed? We know it wasn't a successful campaign. I think it was

:33:05.:33:08.

probably wrongly targeted. In retrospect, it would have been

:33:09.:33:15.

better to make a less strident argument of a more detailed car. For

:33:16.:33:23.

me, as someone who had been a long term Eurosceptic but voted for

:33:24.:33:27.

Remain, the reason was not because I thought that disaster would strike

:33:28.:33:30.

one way or the other, but because I thought on the balance of risk,

:33:31.:33:34.

there was greater risk to leaving than remaining. So the punishment

:33:35.:33:40.

Budget was a mistake? I think altogether, the campaign was to be

:33:41.:33:43.

high-intensity and it would have been more persuasive to people in

:33:44.:33:46.

the middle ground who had not made up their minds if we had argued what

:33:47.:33:49.

was true, which was that it was a balance of risk and you were trying

:33:50.:33:53.

to choose the less risky course of action for this country and there

:33:54.:33:56.

were risks on either side. And I think that kind of tone, which was

:33:57.:34:01.

not the tone on either side, would have been more persuasive. Did you

:34:02.:34:04.

try and persuade David Cameron and George Osborne of that? No, because

:34:05.:34:09.

I see these things in retrospect and I believe them, but I am very

:34:10.:34:14.

conscious that I have been one of those people who is least adept at

:34:15.:34:19.

planning election campaigns. It is not my forte. What are you doing

:34:20.:34:26.

next? I have many plans. I am just in the middle of founding a red tape

:34:27.:34:29.

Institute, which is going to identify, on a cross-party basis,

:34:30.:34:33.

the areas of regulation that we will be able to get out from post-Brexit

:34:34.:34:39.

and do so quickly because of consensus across the parties. That

:34:40.:34:43.

could be a significant contribution. I am also writing various books. So

:34:44.:34:48.

you will be a sort of adviser to the post Brexit process. No, I have

:34:49.:34:54.

mercifully been spared being an adviser any further.

:34:55.:34:56.

When you see the union jack fluttering in the breeze,

:34:57.:34:59.

For thousands of years, flags have represented a people's

:35:00.:35:06.

hopes and dreams. We wave them.

:35:07.:35:08.

And still in the 21st century, die for them.

:35:09.:35:15.

Tim Marshall, former diplomatic editor at Sky,

:35:16.:35:18.

has a new book out "Worth Dying For: The Power and Politics of Flags" -

:35:19.:35:21.

Worth Dying For - The Power and Politics of Flags,

:35:22.:35:58.

Let's start with the Union Jack. We have a picture, in case anyone

:35:59.:36:09.

doesn't know what it looks like. What is the story behind it? It is

:36:10.:36:16.

the story of our union, the story of the legend of St George, the legend

:36:17.:36:25.

of St Andrew, King Angus in Scotland. Said Andrew looked up at

:36:26.:36:31.

the sky before going into battle and saw this great white Cross, hence

:36:32.:36:35.

the saltire. Then they added things on. Unfortunately, we did not put a

:36:36.:36:40.

dragon in, which is problematic with our flag. And then after 1707 and

:36:41.:36:46.

the act of union, here we are. But what you really see in it is down to

:36:47.:36:51.

you. It is in the eye of the beholder. I think it is quite a good

:36:52.:36:56.

flag. It is certainly one of the best-known in the world. It has

:36:57.:37:00.

endured. But there will be people who look at it, and there was a

:37:01.:37:06.

nickname in certain quarters, the butcher's apron, because if you are

:37:07.:37:09.

that particular beholder and you look at that flag, it means

:37:10.:37:13.

something very different. Let's talk about symbolism. Why are they so

:37:14.:37:20.

symbolic for many people, whether it is on porches in the states all

:37:21.:37:26.

waved at various events during the year to denote patriotism or burnt

:37:27.:37:31.

or whatever it is, they are very important. Because it is the

:37:32.:37:38.

embodiment of ideas. There are so many examples. The Ethiopian flag is

:37:39.:37:46.

a good example, red, gold and green. The only African country not to be

:37:47.:37:50.

fully colonised was such an inspiration to the rest of Africa

:37:51.:37:52.

that when the African countries began to become independent

:37:53.:37:57.

themselves many of them took inspiration from red, gold and

:37:58.:38:01.

green. These are just colours, but what they mean to people who look at

:38:02.:38:05.

in Africa is freedom, independence and standing up against the outside

:38:06.:38:11.

oppressor. How old or how recent our flags? You will get letters, several

:38:12.:38:20.

of them. I get them all the time! It depends on your definition of a

:38:21.:38:24.

flag. 20,000 years ago, I'm sure somebody stuck a skull on top of the

:38:25.:38:28.

post and carried it in front of them. Is that a flag? Maybe not.

:38:29.:38:32.

Fast forward, and you have got cloth, but if you put paint onto

:38:33.:38:35.

cloth, it is pretty heavy and then if it rains, you will fall backwards

:38:36.:38:41.

off your horse into battle. So silk - the Chinese invented Suk. About

:38:42.:38:46.

3000 years ago, you can start colouring silk and carrying it into

:38:47.:38:50.

battle. Take that along the silk road, and you meet the Arabs. The

:38:51.:38:54.

Arabs then start to have their own flags. In the Crusades, we have this

:38:55.:38:58.

unfortunate collision between the two, but a lot of Europeans thought,

:38:59.:39:03.

that is a good idea. From that comes the European flags. From there comes

:39:04.:39:08.

heraldry and out of heraldry comes the national flag we see today.

:39:09.:39:13.

Let's look at Chinese flags. What does that flag is a? It's says

:39:14.:39:17.

communism! With Chinese characteristics, which is capitalism

:39:18.:39:24.

now. The colour red says communism. The big star is the Communist party,

:39:25.:39:31.

and it dominates the flag. Behind it are the four categories of the

:39:32.:39:36.

Chinese. There are the presents, the proletariat. There are the

:39:37.:39:41.

bourgeoisie, and then very cunningly, there is the patriotic

:39:42.:39:45.

capitalists. That was very far-sighted of the Chinese in the

:39:46.:39:49.

1940s. Now the last one dominates the other three, but dominating them

:39:50.:39:55.

all is the party. Do you have a favourite flag? I think the Union

:39:56.:40:01.

Jack. Other than that. It something you interested in's it is something

:40:02.:40:07.

I am moved by, for the reasons Tim says. And I think it is above the

:40:08.:40:11.

fray. It is outside politics, like the Queen. It is something we can

:40:12.:40:17.

all unify around, rather than being divided. It is something we are

:40:18.:40:21.

supposed to unify around, but it can be divisive. Are you uniting around

:40:22.:40:34.

the EU flag? I meant the Union Jack. Almost all of us feel British. I

:40:35.:40:42.

accept that if you are in Scotland and use of Independence, you might

:40:43.:40:45.

pick a different view. But most of us who believe in the union believe

:40:46.:40:49.

in the flag because it is outside the disputes about everything else.

:40:50.:40:53.

What about the difference in style and imagery? You talked about

:40:54.:40:58.

Ethiopia. European style flags and flags from the Arab nations, is

:40:59.:41:01.

there a big difference in what they are trying to say? Yes. This is

:41:02.:41:07.

blindingly obvious, but worth pointing out. Obviously, the

:41:08.:41:10.

Christian symbolism fades. You have the Scandinavian cross in the north.

:41:11.:41:15.

The Portuguese flag has the five stigmata of Jesus on it, the Greek

:41:16.:41:18.

flag has the cross. That starts to fade as you head into the East. Two

:41:19.:41:24.

things happen then. One is that you have the Arab colours of revolt. The

:41:25.:41:31.

Saudi flag has the profession of faith on it. That is so obviously

:41:32.:41:37.

not European. The Arab flag is a revolt. There were three Islamic

:41:38.:41:44.

dynasty is. All three are represented on the Arab flag of

:41:45.:41:47.

revolt, the red, green and the red, green and black. That was to bring

:41:48.:41:51.

together the Shia and Sunni dynasty is to become pan Arabic. That is why

:41:52.:41:54.

so many of their flags are those colours. The Saudis decided that

:41:55.:41:57.

they were different and they were the true holders of the faith.

:41:58.:42:03.

Interestingly, along come Isis. They no longer have green, because that

:42:04.:42:09.

is associated sometimes with the Shia faith. If you look at the

:42:10.:42:13.

difference between the Saudi flag and its calligraphy and beautiful

:42:14.:42:18.

green, and the ragged, old-fashioned, brutal flag. Firstly,

:42:19.:42:22.

it is square, because Mohammed's flag was supposed to be square. And

:42:23.:42:29.

they want to go back to that. That is the point. The calligraphy says

:42:30.:42:34.

sixth century. We are the rough and ready, original Sunni Islam. And the

:42:35.:42:40.

white is the stamp of Muhammad. It is very similar to some of the

:42:41.:42:47.

letters in the museum in Istanbul. That whole flag screams, we are the

:42:48.:42:51.

authentic voice of Islam, in opposition to the others. That is

:42:52.:42:57.

the politics of flags. You are fascinated by this. It is a vehicle.

:42:58.:43:00.

I like talking about current affairs.

:43:01.:43:02.

Earlier this week, the first ever US shale gas to be imported to the UK

:43:03.:43:05.

The shale gas, extracted using the controversial fracking

:43:06.:43:08.

technique, was bought by Ineos, the oil refinery at Grangemouth,

:43:09.:43:11.

because they say it was cheaper to import than extracting gas

:43:12.:43:16.

Also this week, Labour's shadow energy secretary,

:43:17.:43:20.

Barry Gardiner, announced at the party conference

:43:21.:43:22.

that his party would ban fracking in the UK if they form

:43:23.:43:25.

and they give rise to real environmental dangers.

:43:26.:43:32.

But technical problems can be overcome.

:43:33.:43:39.

So on their own, they are not a good enough reason to ban fracking.

:43:40.:43:43.

is that it locks us into an energy infrastructure

:43:44.:43:47.

long after our country needs to have moved to clean energy.

:43:48.:43:53.

that a future Labour government will ban fracking.

:43:54.:43:57.

We've been joined by the director of Ineos, Tom Crotty.

:43:58.:44:10.

What is your reaction to what Barry Gardiner said, band fracking if

:44:11.:44:16.

Labour comes to government? I think it is misguided and misinformed and

:44:17.:44:19.

it misses the point, which is that there are so many jobs in this

:44:20.:44:23.

country dependent on supplies of gas. We hit our homes with gas.

:44:24.:44:27.

Industry uses gas. To assume that there was a bright new tomorrow and

:44:28.:44:31.

we flick a switch and that goes away is naive. But is he right to say

:44:32.:44:38.

that fracking locks us into fossil fuels? No. Gas is a required fuel.

:44:39.:44:43.

We need gas, even with renewables. When the sun as much and in the wind

:44:44.:44:47.

is not blowing, you have to keep the lights on and the best back-up

:44:48.:44:50.

system is gas. It is a low carbon alternative. Well, you disagree with

:44:51.:44:56.

what Barry Gardiner is saying, which is hardly surprising, but he is

:44:57.:44:59.

tapping into public sentiment on this, as is Labour, because only one

:45:00.:45:01.

in five people support fracking. There are so many polls on this

:45:02.:45:11.

unlike the opinion polls they are very varied. We get a completely

:45:12.:45:17.

different result. The government's energy tracking polling show that

:45:18.:45:23.

just 31% supported. We are going out into village halls and town halls in

:45:24.:45:26.

the areas we are likely to do this and saying these are the facts,

:45:27.:45:29.

because people have not been presented with facts. When they get

:45:30.:45:33.

the fact they are in the Nutley more supportive. You talk about jobs and

:45:34.:45:38.

you have invested an awful lot into fracking, but instead of bringing in

:45:39.:45:41.

gas from America, why not just invest in North Sea oil and gas? We

:45:42.:45:49.

are. Invest more. We have put a lot of North Sea oil gas rigs but there

:45:50.:45:55.

is insufficient gas. It will be 80% import it in five years' time. Not

:45:56.:46:00.

producing our own gas will do is replaced those imports, keep that

:46:01.:46:03.

income within the UK, not having it going to regimes across the world

:46:04.:46:06.

who potentially unstable and not reliable. So why should we not keep

:46:07.:46:13.

that money in the UK? What do you think of government policy so far

:46:14.:46:17.

towards fracking? It has been very positive, the government have been

:46:18.:46:20.

supportive. Except it is not happening. We have started seismic

:46:21.:46:26.

testing in the areas where we have licenses. Now we have got the

:46:27.:46:29.

licences we are starting to work. Do you think government should have

:46:30.:46:35.

gone further and faster with fracking? Note, I think it was quite

:46:36.:46:44.

right to be cautious. It is the kind of thing that will only build

:46:45.:46:47.

confidence gradually of the regulatory regime is really tight

:46:48.:46:51.

and the environmental regimes are properly addressed. I spent a lot of

:46:52.:46:54.

time with officials going through exactly what had been done, talking

:46:55.:46:58.

to members of the industry and the regulators and became convinced that

:46:59.:47:01.

we had got it straight, and I think that that's stage it was right to

:47:02.:47:09.

license. The truth is whatever Barry Gardner says or doesn't say today

:47:10.:47:15.

the truth is the UK will be using gas fields to come. I happen to

:47:16.:47:19.

believe a passionate believer in climate change but we are going to

:47:20.:47:26.

need gas. Is fracking solution? Somebody who think they have the

:47:27.:47:30.

solution in the energy sphere you should be very sceptical about, it

:47:31.:47:33.

is a big mix of things was that this is one of the things that reduces

:47:34.:47:35.

our dependence on Mark Webb, Russia and the Middle East. Can you think

:47:36.:47:39.

of three parts of the world you would least likely want to be

:47:40.:47:43.

dependent on? It is clearly worth trying to produce our own. You say

:47:44.:47:47.

people are not being presented with the facts, what are the facts? How

:47:48.:47:51.

do you know the technology is completely safe? There is no such

:47:52.:47:57.

thing as 100% safe, when you take your car to the petrol station,

:47:58.:48:02.

there is a risk. Nothing is perfect, North Sea oil and gas has issues, we

:48:03.:48:06.

all know that. We will make sure this is done as safely as humanly

:48:07.:48:09.

possible because we are taking 20 years of learning from the US.

:48:10.:48:14.

Another is right, in the early days some rogue things went on, which are

:48:15.:48:18.

now regulated and we would not be a able to do in the UK. Regulations

:48:19.:48:23.

are very tight. Even so, it is not happening at the moment. There are

:48:24.:48:27.

licenses that have been taken, and applications have been made, and

:48:28.:48:30.

they haven't gone ahead, partly because of local opposition. One

:48:31.:48:35.

could say that the government, newcomer had been deaf to the

:48:36.:48:39.

anti-fracking campaigners who just wanted. It is very slowly and

:48:40.:48:46.

gradually happening, partly because we have given local population is

:48:47.:48:49.

the right, which I think they should have, to decide whether they wanted

:48:50.:48:52.

them in their own place. I think the regulation will make sure it is

:48:53.:48:56.

ecologically safe and sound, but of course if you have a great big

:48:57.:48:59.

object right next to your house, I don't know where you live, but if I

:49:00.:49:03.

had one next to mine, I would have something to say about it, so it is

:49:04.:49:06.

right that locals can treat it as a normal planning application, which

:49:07.:49:09.

means it doesn't happen overnight but we should not be upset about

:49:10.:49:14.

that. Doing these things slowly and gradually gaining popular acceptance

:49:15.:49:18.

of the right way. Will that be quick enough here? Take us to three years

:49:19.:49:24.

just to do the science, we won't do anything until we know the content.

:49:25.:49:27.

We will do test drilling, which will take two or three years before we

:49:28.:49:34.

get to think about developing. There is another option, of course,

:49:35.:49:38.

nuclear power, and Theresa May has finally given the green light to

:49:39.:49:44.

Hinckley. Do you support that? We think it is a sensible technology to

:49:45.:49:48.

invest in. You are talking about electricity. 80% of this country's

:49:49.:49:54.

houses are heated by gas. But you are still in favour of her giving

:49:55.:49:58.

the go-ahead to Hinkley Point? We are extremely supportive of nuclear

:49:59.:50:05.

investment, I am not sure that Hinckley is the best investment, it

:50:06.:50:09.

is very expensive, but it is a start. When you look at things like

:50:10.:50:13.

the strike price, it seems to be much more expensive, and not value

:50:14.:50:16.

for money for the taxpayer. No, I don't actually think that. At ?90 a

:50:17.:50:22.

kilowatt hour, the product from Hinckley can compete with any

:50:23.:50:29.

totally non-carbon if as fuel. With gas, if you are going to equal that,

:50:30.:50:32.

you would have to do something like carbon capture storage and those at

:50:33.:50:36.

the moment are expensive technologies. So you need in the

:50:37.:50:42.

system what is called baseload, the kinds of plants that will produce

:50:43.:50:45.

electricity at all times of day and night and are available when the

:50:46.:50:48.

wind is too high or too low and the sun isn't shining and salon. You can

:50:49.:50:53.

get that from two sources, from gas and from nuclear. If we build

:50:54.:50:56.

nuclear stations we can get it without the carbon, which is a help

:50:57.:51:01.

towards the world's reduction of carbon, and it is more or less the

:51:02.:51:04.

cheapest way of doing that at the moment. I think we can do better and

:51:05.:51:08.

I think subsequent generations of nuclear, especially small modular

:51:09.:51:13.

nuclear reactors will be more Finance Bill and probably in the end

:51:14.:51:17.

cheaper. Do you think Theresa May did irreparable damage with China by

:51:18.:51:22.

putting temporary hold on giving the go-ahead to Chinese investment? No,

:51:23.:51:27.

my experience of investing -- negotiating with the Chinese... You

:51:28.:51:35.

have negotiated with everyone! These are very grown-up, very subtle, very

:51:36.:51:39.

intelligent. They are very sensitive. But they understand

:51:40.:51:43.

things from a very long perspective, and a fuel leaks for Theresa to make

:51:44.:51:47.

her mind about this, perfectly sensible for a new permanence to do,

:51:48.:51:51.

will not fracture the relationships. I think the golden era as it's

:51:52.:51:55.

called of UK- Chinese relationships is still going strong and it is

:51:56.:51:58.

important it will be, because Chinese and India will be the

:51:59.:52:01.

dominant features of the landscape of the board of the next 30 to 40

:52:02.:52:06.

years. Wendy thing you will start packing? Emotionally within the next

:52:07.:52:12.

five years. Tom Crotty, thank you for coming in. As we all know in

:52:13.:52:20.

politics, just as in other walks of life,

:52:21.:52:21.

certain things go in and out of fashion.

:52:22.:52:23.

Take, for example, the idea that politicians should make speeches

:52:24.:52:26.

without a jacket and tie, with their shirt-sleeves rolled up.

:52:27.:52:28.

Or talking about what they like to listen to on their ipod.

:52:29.:52:31.

But do you remember last autumn's political hot

:52:32.:52:33.

Well, it turns out that the power pose fad was all in vain.

:52:34.:53:12.

This week, one of the body language experts who popularised the idea

:53:13.:53:15.

announced she no longer believes that 'power pose' effects -

:53:16.:53:17.

such as increasing confidence and appearing powerful - are real.

:53:18.:53:21.

We've been joined by James Brooke, co-director of 'Threshold' -

:53:22.:53:23.

thank you. Are you disappointed she has rubbished the idea? It is all

:53:24.:53:39.

about confidence, and we know people strongly associate confidence with

:53:40.:53:44.

competence, that is the holy Grail, what business leaders and

:53:45.:53:46.

politicians are always trying to achieve. The reason they hooked into

:53:47.:53:50.

it was about five years ago, the study you are talking about seem to

:53:51.:53:56.

interject the science bit. What is the science? The science, in theory,

:53:57.:53:59.

and it is disputed, with good reason, I'll come onto that. We have

:54:00.:54:04.

known for quite a long time that if we stand and act in a confident way,

:54:05.:54:08.

levels of self-reported confidence increase. We feel more confident if

:54:09.:54:14.

you act more confident. You set up straighter than! Indeed, I did. The

:54:15.:54:22.

study out of Harvard suggested not only do we feel more confident, but

:54:23.:54:27.

it changes the neuro hormonal balance in our brain. You mean it

:54:28.:54:31.

gives off and orphans or something? It seems to inject a bit of

:54:32.:54:36.

neuroscience, and there is a fair bit of evidence that if you put the

:54:37.:54:38.

word neuroscience in something people more readily believe it is

:54:39.:54:45.

real. So it is a self-fulfilling prophecy then. Precisely. But if you

:54:46.:54:50.

stand more confident way, you feel more confident and you are more

:54:51.:54:53.

likely to project what in the jargon is composed micro-signals that

:54:54.:54:58.

suggest greater levels of confidence. We know that works. What

:54:59.:55:03.

is questionable is the science bit. Do you think it worked for these

:55:04.:55:07.

politicians? There is one of George Osborne standing with his legs

:55:08.:55:10.

apart, does he look more powerful and confident? The key thing is not

:55:11.:55:17.

get caught practising it, so people can see all the strings. My guess is

:55:18.:55:23.

that was taken almost in rehearsal. What he is probably trying to do is

:55:24.:55:28.

associate that space with a space where he feels powerful. I'm not

:55:29.:55:32.

sure it was in rehearsal, if it isn't rehearsal, how does he look? I

:55:33.:55:37.

think he is slightly showing the strings there. The science bit is

:55:38.:55:41.

disputed, and I think that is important to say. If we are talking

:55:42.:55:46.

about this stuff, I would say this is a hypothesis. There have been

:55:47.:55:51.

studies that suggest it has no effect on the neuro, more balanced

:55:52.:55:53.

that if it works for you, do it. Over there I think he has

:55:54.:55:57.

exaggerated a little too much. We had pictures of George Osborne,

:55:58.:56:01.

Theresa May, Michael Gove, did you get the memo? No. I suspect people

:56:02.:56:07.

knew that I didn't matter from that point of view. LAUGHTER

:56:08.:56:11.

I'm sure that's not the case! And secondly they may have remembered

:56:12.:56:16.

that for the ghastly period when I was Shadow Chancellor and sent off

:56:17.:56:20.

somebody to teach me to do these things, I turned into some of

:56:21.:56:23.

couldn't bear and I don't think anyone else could bear much, and I

:56:24.:56:26.

have never done it since and I don't believe in all this garbage. I think

:56:27.:56:30.

you should just be yourself, and that is the only thing you can do.

:56:31.:56:35.

Come on, James, show me the power pose. Not that I stand that often in

:56:36.:56:40.

the studio, but if I were. I am going to show you what I sense

:56:41.:56:45.

George Osborne was coached to do. The crucial thing is don't do it

:56:46.:56:50.

live, do it as preparation. You mean like I'm doing now? OK. The first

:56:51.:56:58.

thing is, he looks like he is expecting a 747 to fly through his

:56:59.:57:02.

legs. Not very elegant. So exaggerated. The idea is when we are

:57:03.:57:09.

at our most confident we take up the mess space, so that exaggerates it.

:57:10.:57:13.

So if you are just hands on the hips. It is a quite natural, isn't

:57:14.:57:19.

it? It is, you could call it the gunslinger pose, so it is a bit Gary

:57:20.:57:24.

glitter, or it could be wonder woman. Do you think I project

:57:25.:57:29.

confidence here? No, I think you look like somebody... LAUGHTER

:57:30.:57:36.

The hypothesis... We haven't got much time. Not only are you feeling

:57:37.:57:41.

more confident Chameera level of circulating testosterone has

:57:42.:57:46.

increased. Oh great! The key thing is a study has come out, about two

:57:47.:57:49.

years ago, that suggested it makes no difference to testosterone. The

:57:50.:57:53.

crucial thing is if it works for you, do it, take the science bit

:57:54.:57:58.

with a big pinch of salt. I'm not convinced, but one last pose. James,

:57:59.:58:03.

thank you very much. I think we have just got time before we go to find

:58:04.:58:07.

out the answer to our quiz, Oliver let them.

:58:08.:58:08.

The question was where was the 2010 Conservative Manifesto -

:58:09.:58:11.

written by our guest Oliver Letwin - launched?

:58:12.:58:14.

Was it a) Battersea Power Station in London?

:58:15.:58:15.

C) The Lowry Arts Centre in Salford Quays?

:58:16.:58:19.

Or d) A smoothie bar in Notting Hill?

:58:20.:58:21.

So, Oliver, what's the correct answer?

:58:22.:58:26.

Ever since you posted this, I have been desperately searching my

:58:27.:58:35.

memory. How can you not remember? I remember quite a lot about that was

:58:36.:58:38.

in the manifesto and I can even remember sitting at a bench while

:58:39.:58:43.

David was... You didn't put it in a bit nearby? I haven't got the

:58:44.:58:45.

slightest idea. Extraordinary scenes, here.

:58:46.:58:47.

The atmosphere, absolutely electric.

:58:48.:59:13.

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