13/10/2016 Daily Politics


13/10/2016

Jo Coburn and Andrew Neil are joined by Baroness Philippa Stroud and others to discuss Brexit, welfare reform, the SNP party conference and Britain's worst PM.


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Transcript


LineFromTo

Hello A and welcome to the Daily Politics.

:00:37.:00:40.

As a potential shortage of one of life's essentials, Marmite,

:00:41.:00:44.

is being blamed on Brexit thanks to the fall in the pound,

:00:45.:00:47.

there are continued calls for Parliament to have a vote

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Today the campaign by Remain supporters has even reached

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the courts - but are these legitimate attempts to hold

:00:57.:00:59.

the government to account and give parliament its proper role,

:01:00.:01:01.

or just sour grapes on the part of a losing side that won't give

:01:02.:01:05.

The SNP is holding its annual conference in Glasgow,

:01:06.:01:08.

and Nicola Sturgeon has signalled she intends to press

:01:09.:01:11.

ahead with legislating for a second

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We'll be speaking to the party's new, freshly elected, deputy leader.

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A new report says that Britain's cities have all the money,

:01:22.:01:24.

but because it's not shared around you might be better off

:01:25.:01:27.

We'll discuss it with one urban and one rural MP.

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And according to a group of university academics,

:01:35.:01:36.

David Cameron has joined the hall of shame of Britain's worst

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We'll be asking if that's harsh, or fair.

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Perspective. That was the motto of the Daleks. -- could be harsh but

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they are, depending on your perspective.

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All that in the next hour and with us for the duration

:02:03.:02:05.

She was an adviser to former Work and Pensions Secretary

:02:06.:02:14.

Iain Duncan Smith, and she's now head of something called

:02:15.:02:16.

Jo tells me Legatum is a Latin word, meaning legacy.

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We haven't yet worked out the meaning of Institute.

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Apparently its job is to spread prosperity.

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Let's hope she can spread a bit around the studio while she's here.

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Have you? It is about social as well as economic prosperity.

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First today you'll be staggered to hear we're going to be

:02:36.:02:38.

It continues to be the issue dominating politics at Westminster,

:02:39.:02:44.

cutting across nearly every other area of national debate,

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and dividing parties in some surprising ways.

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Yesterday saw MPs demanding more of a say on Brexit in the Commons.

:02:54.:02:59.

Today, that challenge has moved to the courts.

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Yes, today's challenge is to do with whether the Government can

:03:04.:03:05.

exercise the Royal perogative to take Britain out

:03:06.:03:07.

of the EU without seeking Parliamentary approval.

:03:08.:03:10.

The case, which has been brought by a group of people including

:03:11.:03:13.

an investment manager and a London hairdresser, could have major

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Well, our legal correspondent, Clive Coleman, is at the High Court.

:03:17.:03:22.

What chance does it have success? Sorry, there is an extremely loud

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ambulance going by. What chance does it have of success? Reasonable is

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the short answer. This is a perfectly respectable legal argument

:03:39.:03:41.

that is being brought and it goes like this. It says that the

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government, the executive, cannot lawfully, under our Constitution,

:03:49.:03:51.

use royal prerogative powers. These are a collection of executive powers

:03:52.:03:55.

derived from the crowd and then go back to medieval times when monarchs

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could pretty much do whatever they liked. The government cannot

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lawfully use prerogative powers to trigger Article 50, and what they

:04:04.:04:08.

need is the authority of an act of Parliament to do so. The government

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to take a different view. They say they are perfectly and lawfully and

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constitutionally entitled to use prerogative powers because

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essentially what we are doing is extricating ourselves from an

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international treaty and that is a prime example of where prerogative

:04:25.:04:29.

powers are preserved. But there is a battle royal going on in the Lord

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Chief Justice's caught behind me. 20 or so barristers appearing in this

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case. Lord Paddick at QC for the businesswoman bringing this

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challenge has said that the case raised issues of fundamental concert

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usual importance and the real nitty-gritty of this is that if the

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government use the royal prerogative to trigger Article 50, they will be

:04:57.:05:01.

obliterating rights enshrined in the 1972 European Community is act, and

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he said that it is no answer for the government to say they will restore

:05:09.:05:12.

rights later with an appeal bill. This is a rates will fall away and

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they cannot do that. What about the timing? We know that Theresa May

:05:20.:05:24.

intends to invoke Article 50 by March, so could that frustrate the

:05:25.:05:28.

timing? I don't think this will stop Brexit but it could frustrate the

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timing. Whichever side losers, inevitably they will take this to

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the Supreme Court. And we don't know quite how long that will take but it

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could be well into the New Year. It could have a serious effect on the

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timing of all this, and the manner in which we Brexit. A break from

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Brexit, some breaking news. Bob Dylan has won the Nobel literature

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prize 2016 for creating new poetic expressions within the great

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American song book. Bob Dylan wins the Nobel Prize for literature. Who

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saw that coming? And now, let's go back to Brexit.

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The question of Parliamentary scrutiny of the Brexit vote

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was debated at length in the Commons yesterday.

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The Secretary of State for Exiting the EU, David Davis,

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faced hostile questioning from the opposition benches and some

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remain-supporting Conservatives over the role Parliament should play

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We are debating a fundamental question, and that is whether the

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basic plans for exiting, for the negotiating position are going to be

:06:48.:06:51.

put before the house or not. That really matters. Of course there is a

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degree of detail that cannot be gone into, and of course there is

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flexibility that has to be there and of course the starting position may

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not be the end position. We all accept that and we are all grown up.

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So, we can make sure the decision people made on June 23rd

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We need to be explicit that while we commend and welcome

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parliamentary scrutiny, it must not be used as a vehicle

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to undermine the Government's negotiating position or thwart

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We're joined now by the Conservative MP Bernard Jenkin, he was a Leave

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supporter, and by the Labour MP Emma Reynold - she supported remain.

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Welcome to you both. When the government triggers Article 50 to

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begin the negotiating process, do you want Parliament to vote on that

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before it triggers? I want Parliament to vote on the terms but

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I am seeking that not to block the triggering of Article 50, but so

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that we can have a proper discussion from representatives of all

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different corners of the United Kingdom in an attempt to bring our

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country back together again on what kind of Brexit we want. Because

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people voted Leave for so many different reasons and there are so

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many different forms that leaving the EU could take that I think

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Parliament should have a role in scrutinising the government's

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negotiating strategy and helping to make sure we get the best outcome.

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So you think the government should publish its negotiating strategy,

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put it before Parliament and then have a vote? I think the government

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should make clear what its principal objectives are. That does not mean

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necessarily publishing the negotiating strategy but certainly I

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would like the government to prioritise the best possible access

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to the single market, because I think business is getting very

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jittery about that. Equally there are other considerations that needs

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to be taken into account. But should Parliament vote on it? I think

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Parliament should. But seven out of ten Labour MPs are like me. They

:09:03.:09:08.

campaigned to remain but they have constituencies, and the majority of

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constituents voted to leave. Therefore we do not want to thwart

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the will of the people. I understand that. What would be wrong with that?

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Well, the only reason some people are trying to get tabled in

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Parliament on Article 50 is presumably so they can vote it. Why

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do you say that? It is simply not true. What is the point of having a

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vote on something if we are all going to vote for it. Last night

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your party put down a motion where there was a huge row, which turned

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out not to be a row about anything because we voted in the same way.

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But you are someone who has always stood up for Parliamentary scrutiny

:09:50.:09:52.

of the executive but on this point you were saying there should not be

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scrutiny. It is a separate issue. I think that is perfectly legitimate

:09:56.:09:59.

and that is why we supported the motion yesterday. So, should the

:10:00.:10:09.

government publish the broad outlines of how it will approach the

:10:10.:10:15.

negotiations? I am certain that is what the government is going to do.

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And should it seek Parliamentary approval for that broad outline? If

:10:20.:10:22.

the government does not maintain the confidence of the House of Commons

:10:23.:10:26.

in its negotiating position, it will finish up losing a vote. So why not

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have a vote? The opposition had the opportunity to put down a motion

:10:32.:10:34.

yesterday about what they wanted in the withdrawal agreement and they

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did not put anything down. But the opposition does not run the country,

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the government does. They wanted a row about procedure. But I am not.

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What would be wrong, and I perfectly understand the point that you do not

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lay out your negotiating position, that would be absurd, you would tell

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the other side, but we lay out as a country the broad objectives, and we

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put these before Parliament and Parliament has a vote to say, yes,

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that is the broad outline and then you go forward. What would be wrong

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with that? One of the questions that people keep asking me, is the

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government going to be inside or outside the single market? Now, that

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is an issue that might be traded with a lot of other issues. And that

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could be covered by the government seeking to have the broadest

:11:34.:11:36.

possible access to the single market. Personally, I would argue

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that what the Prime Minister has said makes it quite clear. We are

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not going to be in the single market. I think if that is going to

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be the policy, the government needs to make the case. But they need to

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be clear about that because they have not been. David Davis said

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precisely nothing about that. What would happen if a vote to trigger

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Article 50 was put before Parliament and Parliament voted against it?

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Firstly, I do not think that will happen. How would you vote? I will

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not be voting against the triggering of Article 50. Unless they come up

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with a very, very hard Brexit plan and put that before Parliament. I

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think it would be a question, and I think it will be very unlikely,

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because the majority of MPs voted to remain on your side and our side,

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and we now accept the result because we are Democrats. But I do think

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that some of these issues, particularly access to the single

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market, is so important and actually business is crying out for clarity

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on this as well. Let me come back to that issue. It is one that you have

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mentioned several times. Philippa, you have written the Parliament

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house to deliver an Brexit or we will face a constitutional crisis of

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the highest order. What do you mean by that? What we meant was we have

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recently published a report looking at what was underneath the vote, and

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why people voted the way that they did. And what became very obvious

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was that the people expect, the 52% who voted to leave absolutely expect

:13:21.:13:25.

their vote to be delivered upon. Were that not to be the case, as

:13:26.:13:33.

Emma has outlined, if Parliament voted against the government's

:13:34.:13:36.

proposal, the would be a constitutional crisis. That would be

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extreme. I don't think that will happen. Maybe not in the Commons but

:13:41.:13:56.

the Lords is 6-1 against Brexit. Is there a mood in there to thwart the

:13:57.:14:01.

referendum result. Like there is in the Commons, there are numbers of

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members of the House of Lords who are very uncomfortable about Brexit.

:14:05.:14:07.

I am not sure that they would actually push it to thwarting the

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democratic will of the nation. I don't think they would do that

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although there was a lot of manoeuvring going on. I will come

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back to this issue but I want to play a short clip from the Foreign

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Secretary. He is called Boris Johnson and he was being quizzed in

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parliament, in the committee yesterday, about it. Let's hear what

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he had to say this morning. Nobody appears to have

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a Scooby, if you like, I tell you what, I will

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do it one last time. Is it even your objective to retain

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membership of the Single Market? Well, we are leaving

:14:45.:14:48.

the European Union. Let me try - you seem

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to think the Single Market is sort of like, you know,

:14:50.:14:55.

the Groucho Club or something. We will continue to have

:14:56.:15:02.

access for trade in goods I think we'll do a deal that will be

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to the benefit of both sides. That was Boris Johnson, telling us

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that membership of the single market is not like membership of the

:15:28.:15:31.

Groucho Club. Don't tell me there is no parliamentary scrutiny going on.

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It is a major development that we probably didn't know, that there was

:15:36.:15:39.

a difference between the Groucho Club and the European Union. On this

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business of the single market, surely the Government will say no

:15:44.:15:49.

more than that we are going to go for as much access to the single

:15:50.:15:54.

market, as is consistent with leaving the EU. Isn't that all it

:15:55.:15:59.

can say, surely? Well, if they had said that clearly at their

:16:00.:16:01.

conference, perhaps we wouldn't have had the jitters in the market and

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business we have seen. Unfortunately at their conference they put

:16:07.:16:09.

immigration above all else. I do think we need it tackle people's

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concerns about immigration, by the way but if they'd said - we want the

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best-possible access... Exactly what they said I didn't hear them say

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that loud and clear. I heard the Home Secretary about naming and

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shaming companies that employ... They did, I was in Birmingham. I

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heard them talk about immigration for about four days. They want the

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best access. The issue is that no-one can tell us what the best

:16:35.:16:37.

access means. We won't know that. But if you take the position, as the

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Government does, that we should no longer be justiceable by the

:16:45.:16:47.

European Court of Justice, if you take the position, as the Government

:16:48.:16:51.

does, that our borders should be controlled, including from the EU

:16:52.:16:54.

and migration and if you take the position, as the Government does,

:16:55.:16:58.

that we should have the freedom to make our own free trade agreements,

:16:59.:17:03.

it surely follow, that although we could still have quite wide access

:17:04.:17:08.

to the single market, we could not be a member on any one of these

:17:09.:17:11.

conditions? Well, I think that's right but then I don't understand

:17:12.:17:14.

why the Foreign Secretary doesn't answer that question. Obviously,

:17:15.:17:19.

there is still the EEA, which is slightly different but still has

:17:20.:17:22.

some of the same issues that you outline. They don't have the ECJ,

:17:23.:17:30.

they have a different court. Where you study court, it is jurisprudence

:17:31.:17:35.

on ECJ law. I think it is clear from what the Government has said they

:17:36.:17:39.

don't want access to the single market. Quite why they don't say it,

:17:40.:17:45.

I don't know. If that is conceded, before you have started your

:17:46.:17:47.

negotiation, you are making a concession which you don't need to

:17:48.:17:51.

make at this stage. Isn't it clear that is what they mean. Personally

:17:52.:17:57.

that's my view. So why are they so hesitant to say it. The other

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reason, of course s that David Cameron forbade Whitehall to make

:18:02.:18:06.

any preparations for Brexit, and, therefore, a great many officials

:18:07.:18:09.

and ministers are still getting their brains around the whole

:18:10.:18:12.

business of what Brexit means and how it is going to work. One of your

:18:13.:18:17.

MPs from the backbenches yesterday contradicted that and said there had

:18:18.:18:19.

actually been some work asome preparation. All that happened was -

:18:20.:18:23.

I'm Chairman of the committee she was referring to. The Constitutional

:18:24.:18:27.

Affairs Committee. The Cabinet Secretary told us that he had had an

:18:28.:18:32.

away day with Permanent Secretaries a few weeks before the referendum

:18:33.:18:35.

without the knowledge of the Prime Minister and wouted the knowledge of

:18:36.:18:40.

the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Was it the Groucho Club? I don't know

:18:41.:18:45.

where it was held, the location has not been disclosed. It was.

:18:46.:18:51.

My guess, is that although everything that is said, the logic

:18:52.:18:54.

is that we can no longer be a member of the single market, it doesn't

:18:55.:18:57.

want to admit that at the moment because it is going to put in a max

:18:58.:19:02.

mallist negotiating position and it is going to say - well, we would

:19:03.:19:07.

still like to be a member but we are not going to be in the ECJ and all

:19:08.:19:11.

the rest and then it'll get knocked back from that max mallist position.

:19:12.:19:15.

I think we are seeing an emerging of a negotiating position. So you have

:19:16.:19:21.

the strongest line that came out at conference, of the Britain's

:19:22.:19:24.

position and then at that weekend... What was the strongest line? Which

:19:25.:19:31.

was that, the triggering of Article 50, the Great Repeal Bill. Don't you

:19:32.:19:37.

mean the great incorporation bill, that incorporates the EU law into

:19:38.:19:43.

domestic legislation. The Great Consolidation Bill. In order to

:19:44.:19:51.

smooth transition and have security on transition but then you have the

:19:52.:19:56.

European Union response, that it damages businesses. Well they are

:19:57.:20:07.

putting their maximist position. ! Briefly Can I make one point. If we

:20:08.:20:12.

are going to leave the single market, and that's going to be the

:20:13.:20:16.

outcome, the Government has to make the case and reassure about that

:20:17.:20:20.

because a lot of people have legitimate concerns about what they

:20:21.:20:22.

don't know. But when does the Government start doing, that at the

:20:23.:20:26.

moment, as you say even from the clip of Boris Johnson being

:20:27.:20:30.

interviewed, I had Chris Grayling of the Tory conference telling me, that

:20:31.:20:33.

there was no such thing as membership of the single market

:20:34.:20:37.

Well, it is absolutely true. It is not There is something the EU calls

:20:38.:20:41.

the internal market and you can be in the internal market if you

:20:42.:20:47.

subscribe to either membership of the European economic area, or

:20:48.:20:50.

membership of the European... For all intents and purposes you are a

:20:51.:20:54.

member. What business are worried about is falling back on WTO member

:20:55.:20:58.

sh. That's why Nissan has said they'll make no further investment

:20:59.:21:01.

in Sunderland. This is the real discussion. It is. I don't think we

:21:02.:21:05.

should fall back on that membership. Is that the problem about not having

:21:06.:21:09.

a running commentary that it is being filled by... We need to be

:21:10.:21:13.

able to reassure people. There will be huge advantages of being outside

:21:14.:21:18.

the single market. I disagree with that. We should debate I'm glad to

:21:19.:21:27.

have that debate. We will have that debate - to. Put down a Megs for

:21:28.:21:37.

Opposition Day. Put down a motion.

:21:38.:21:43.

So is she Reynolds with an S? I'll jump in. They will never go.

:21:44.:21:46.

Yesterday as MPs debated Brexit in the Commons chamber -

:21:47.:21:50.

and more on that in a moment - speaker John Bercow had to give one

:21:51.:21:54.

MP, the SNP's Angus MacNeill, a bit of a ticking off for what he

:21:55.:21:57.

So, what had Mr MacNeill done wrong?

:21:58.:22:00.

At the end of the show Philippa will give us the correct answer.

:22:01.:22:14.

Although I image she has absolutely no clue whatsoever.

:22:15.:22:17.

Now, our Guest of the Day, Philippa Stroud, used to be

:22:18.:22:20.

an adviser to the former Work and Pensions Secretary,

:22:21.:22:22.

Iain Duncan Smith, and she played a big part in shaping the last

:22:23.:22:25.

Coalition Government's welfare reforms such as the introduction

:22:26.:22:27.

But just this week a report from the Office for Budget Responsibility

:22:28.:22:33.

concluded that the big headline-grabbing reforms have not

:22:34.:22:35.

been very good at saving money - a problem faced by governments

:22:36.:22:38.

My company was one of the first to sign up to the New Deal.

:22:39.:22:51.

It's about giving young people the opportunity to go to work.

:22:52.:22:54.

Despite New Labour's desire to encourage benefit recipients

:22:55.:22:59.

to pull their weight in work, welfare spending grew 40%

:23:00.:23:01.

The subsequent Coalition Government pledged to cut the large

:23:02.:23:06.

deficit they inherited and decrease welfare spending.

:23:07.:23:08.

If you go back to before the financial crisis,

:23:09.:23:10.

we were spending about 10% of national income

:23:11.:23:12.

During the course of the financial crisis, that bounced

:23:13.:23:18.

That's basically because a lot of benefits were being raised

:23:19.:23:27.

in line with inflation at a time that the economy was shrinking.

:23:28.:23:30.

So, essentially, what has happened over the last Parliament,

:23:31.:23:32.

and is continuing to happen over this one, is that the Government

:23:33.:23:35.

is getting that number back to 10% again.

:23:36.:23:37.

The rate of spending on welfare was decreased over the last six

:23:38.:23:40.

years when the Coalition Government cut benefits for high earnersp

:23:41.:23:42.

But the real savings, the big savings were achieved

:23:43.:23:47.

when the former Chancellor, George Osborne, increased

:23:48.:23:49.

the benefits that most people got, at a lower rate

:23:50.:23:51.

Uprating benefits at 1% means people get more cash but less

:23:52.:23:58.

than the rate of inflation and, taken together, we will save ?3.7

:23:59.:24:04.

billion in 2015-16 and deliver permanent savings each and every

:24:05.:24:07.

year from our country's welfare bill.

:24:08.:24:13.

But there were setbacks for the Chancellor,

:24:14.:24:18.

A so-called bedroom tax in unoccupied space in council homes

:24:19.:24:27.

would have decreased housing benefit, were it not

:24:28.:24:29.

Also, a year ago, the Government was dealt a major blow

:24:30.:24:34.

after the House of Lords voted twice to delay cuts in tax credits,

:24:35.:24:37.

and earlier this month, the retesting for eligibility

:24:38.:24:39.

for disability benefit was dropped for recipients with severe

:24:40.:24:41.

conditions and no prospect of getting better.

:24:42.:24:45.

So, what is the secret to cutting welfare spending effectively?

:24:46.:24:48.

The experience has been that those structural reforms have not gone

:24:49.:24:50.

as quickly as Government had hoped and haven't saved as much money

:24:51.:24:53.

They are a very complicated thing to do and it's turned out to be that

:24:54.:25:02.

simply making benefits less generous has been a much more reliable way

:25:03.:25:05.

to get the total amount of spending down.

:25:06.:25:07.

So, on that basis, we shouldn't be surprised that merging six benefits

:25:08.:25:10.

into one and moving seven million people on to a new Universal Credit

:25:11.:25:13.

It was originally launched three years ago by the then Work

:25:14.:25:19.

and Pensions Secretary, Iain Duncan Smith, but it's been

:25:20.:25:21.

You said in September the system was working,

:25:22.:25:25.

We are now also looking at Universal Credit as something

:25:26.:25:31.

that is designed to save money, relative to the benefits it's

:25:32.:25:35.

replacing, rather than the earlier vision that it should be

:25:36.:25:37.

So that change and the current four-year freeze to many benefits,

:25:38.:25:42.

means the rate of welfare spending continues to fall.

:25:43.:25:49.

And we're joined now by Torsten Bell, who used to be

:25:50.:25:52.

Labour's Director of Policy, but now he's directing

:25:53.:25:54.

the think-tank Resolution Foundation.

:25:55.:25:56.

Welcome back to the programme. Philippa Stroud, you were an advisor

:25:57.:26:02.

to Duncan Smith in the last Parliament. Do you think Theresa

:26:03.:26:06.

May's Government is as committed to his welfare reforms? I do think

:26:07.:26:13.

Theresa May - well, is committed to his welfare reforms, particularly to

:26:14.:26:17.

Universal Credit. Some of the other reforms, because she wants to go for

:26:18.:26:24.

the group who are just managing - and we have seen already on

:26:25.:26:29.

disability there that she had long-term conditions - that people

:26:30.:26:32.

who have long-term conditions, she has eased up a little on. But I do

:26:33.:26:37.

think she is committed to actual welfare reform, not necessarily all

:26:38.:26:41.

the saving but actual welfare reform that leads to a making work pay

:26:42.:26:46.

agenda. To the structural changes we heard in the film are happening

:26:47.:26:48.

slightly more slowly than anticipated and they are not making

:26:49.:26:52.

the savings. Is she right? I do think she is right, yes. So was Iain

:26:53.:26:56.

Duncan Smith, were you wrong at that time for pushing too hard for just

:26:57.:27:01.

cost-cutting? We were not pushing for just cost-cutting. We were doing

:27:02.:27:05.

the major reforms at a time of austerity. That is really

:27:06.:27:14.

challenging. When we - at the Centre for Social Justice - designed

:27:15.:27:17.

Universal Credit, we had not envisaged having to do it in the

:27:18.:27:22.

economic climate T would be amazing, always to do welfare reform, not in

:27:23.:27:27.

a difficult economic climate but we didn't have that luxury. You are

:27:28.:27:31.

looking sceptical. It is how I look in general. It is a feature. I take

:27:32.:27:38.

that on board. But do you accept Philippa's claim that these big

:27:39.:27:40.

reforms, Universal Credit, did become more difficult during a time

:27:41.:27:44.

of austerity As a statement of fact as is harder to deliver large

:27:45.:27:48.

structural reforms when there is less money around, yes. On Theresa

:27:49.:27:52.

May and her plans now, what appears to be clear is she is committed to

:27:53.:27:55.

delivering Universal Credit, although I would say as a

:27:56.:28:00.

approximately policy rather than a religious fervour that it may have

:28:01.:28:03.

been for the past Government. What is not clear yet and this'll have to

:28:04.:28:07.

make a decision in the Autumn Statement - are they committed to

:28:08.:28:10.

so. Changes made to the Universal Credit towards the end of George

:28:11.:28:14.

Osborne's time as Chancellor that do seriously limit the benefits that

:28:15.:28:17.

the Universal Credit is meant to bring. If she isn't committed to

:28:18.:28:21.

those, it is very sensible because that is what will make Universal

:28:22.:28:25.

Credit able to tackle some of the big problems we face in the 21st

:28:26.:28:31.

century not the 1990s or 1980s. You said you weren't committed to just

:28:32.:28:34.

cost cutting but it was structural reforms but Iain Duncan Smith said

:28:35.:28:38.

he was resigned because there was too much cost-cutting by the

:28:39.:28:43.

Treasury. Did you experience that? Yes, I mean, yes, course he resigned

:28:44.:28:48.

because of that. There was always a tension between a reforming agenda

:28:49.:28:52.

and what is Chancellor has to do to bring budgets under control. I mean

:28:53.:28:59.

that is going to be written into the anles of history that there was that

:29:00.:29:07.

tension. I can agree, we saw at the back end - just before everything

:29:08.:29:11.

changed and the change of Chancellor, we saw the tax credit

:29:12.:29:18.

cuts reinstated. I would agree that, actually, if Theresa May wants to be

:29:19.:29:23.

the Prime Minister focussed on those who are just managing, that money

:29:24.:29:26.

now needs to be reinvested back into Universal Credit. Right. I would

:29:27.:29:30.

agree with that. On that basis, you say that was the right decision at

:29:31.:29:34.

the time to reinstate those tax credit reversals, although in a way

:29:35.:29:37.

they are just moving money along, aren't they? It is not going to make

:29:38.:29:41.

that much ditches over a period of time? It'll make a lot of difference

:29:42.:29:49.

to people right now who would have been ?3,000 worse off and they are

:29:50.:29:52.

now not. The issue underpinning this is what is the welfare changes that

:29:53.:29:56.

this new, the new Government, Theresa May inherited and what do

:29:57.:30:00.

they want to do? Those are basically to make Universal Credit a

:30:01.:30:04.

cost-saving advice, rather than welfare reform, saving ?3 billion by

:30:05.:30:08.

2020. That brings with it a serious problem - the problem that we as a

:30:09.:30:13.

country face now, low-pay, poverty, in-work Poff Tyne a lack of

:30:14.:30:16.

progression in work and the changes that are being made to Universal

:30:17.:30:20.

Credit, make it as a welfare tool, much peerer at dealing with those

:30:21.:30:21.

problems. He was if you agree with that, what

:30:22.:30:31.

is your view that seems to be discussed in government, an

:30:32.:30:35.

increasing work allowances? If you are talking about the people that

:30:36.:30:37.

Theresa May would like to help, people who are struggling, how much

:30:38.:30:40.

can people learn before they start to lose benefits, would you be in

:30:41.:30:44.

favour of that even though it costs money? There are lots of different

:30:45.:30:48.

ways in which you give money to those who are doing the right thing

:30:49.:30:55.

and in work, even at low pay. One of the ways in which George did it was

:30:56.:31:00.

that he raised the tax threshold. It is a very expensive way. And also

:31:01.:31:04.

everyone benefits. You and I benefit, everyone benefits. But some

:31:05.:31:10.

people earn below the threshold. But the ones who are paying taxes... And

:31:11.:31:27.

if you want that sends of, I am in work, so it makes a difference... So

:31:28.:31:28.

that seems to be the discussion that is going on. Would you be in favour

:31:29.:31:35.

of that? It is a good idea and it towards people that are working. It

:31:36.:31:38.

encourages them that if they earn an extra pound, they do not lose 76% of

:31:39.:31:43.

it in Universal Credit. The government has spoken about tax

:31:44.:31:50.

rises and they are committed to ?2 billion worth of tax cuts over the

:31:51.:31:55.

next to my dears. Simply not doing that would give them enough money to

:31:56.:31:58.

reverse all the cuts. What do you think about that? -- the next two

:31:59.:32:04.

years. I would invest that money into Universal Credit. Damian Green

:32:05.:32:09.

scrapped at the repeat medical assessment benefits for claimants

:32:10.:32:14.

with long-term sickness. It did cause a lot of pain and suffering

:32:15.:32:18.

for a significant number of people. Why was this not introduced while

:32:19.:32:23.

you were working in the department? It is actually something we were

:32:24.:32:26.

already looking at. But you did not introduce it? Reforms have to be

:32:27.:32:33.

done steadily. A green paper had already been announced which was

:32:34.:32:36.

going to bleed to a white Paper looking at precisely this issue, and

:32:37.:32:41.

a whole range of issues, like how do you support disabled people who want

:32:42.:32:46.

to work? They have managed to do at relatively quickly. One feels that

:32:47.:32:49.

either there was a reluctance by Iain Duncan Smith or he was

:32:50.:32:53.

overruled? Well, as I said before, there were always battles between

:32:54.:32:58.

the Treasury, it was always very tight. But he was genuinely

:32:59.:33:01.

committed to it? To reversing it? Yes.

:33:02.:33:04.

The Scottish National Party conference has opened

:33:05.:33:05.

First Minster and party leader Nicola Sturgeon has been talking

:33:06.:33:13.

about how she'll respond to the Brexit vote, but the other

:33:14.:33:15.

big question looming over the party is when it might begin a serious

:33:16.:33:19.

drive for a second referendum on Scottish independence.

:33:20.:33:20.

Our Adam's been to Dundee to find out more.

:33:21.:33:22.

Captin Scott's old ship, the Discovery.

:33:23.:33:27.

It's also one of the few places that voted yes to independence

:33:28.:33:30.

So let's put the two things together and discover if there is appetite

:33:31.:33:35.

Former SNP candidate, Tony, wants to get things moving

:33:36.:33:46.

And he's proposing a vote on another referendum at the party's

:33:47.:33:52.

The resolution is saying that the people of Scotland voted

:33:53.:33:55.

And if Theresa May will not respect that vote,

:33:56.:34:08.

we will be left with no choice but to move forward to a second

:34:09.:34:12.

independence referendum and start preparing for a second

:34:13.:34:14.

But the SNP leadership here in Dundee and the First Minister,

:34:15.:34:21.

Nicola Sturegon, reckon another referendum is probably a bit further

:34:22.:34:24.

Nicola has already said it's the Scottish

:34:25.:34:29.

people who will decide when there is a referendum

:34:30.:34:33.

and that is something which I think politicians and indeed journalists

:34:34.:34:36.

south of the border find very hard to understand.

:34:37.:34:45.

They see a future dominated by party politics, by politicians.

:34:46.:34:47.

I think she's perfectly correct to say that when the people

:34:48.:34:50.

are showing a demand for a referendum, that is

:34:51.:34:52.

Come along if you have the evening free.

:34:53.:35:06.

Out of everyone, the Scottish Socialists are the keenest

:35:07.:35:08.

So keen, they are handing out leaflets about it in the rain.

:35:09.:35:12.

I think the SNP are being very caution about it.

:35:13.:35:15.

They have to balance all their interests as a party

:35:16.:35:19.

whereas the grassroots movement has more leeway, they can go out

:35:20.:35:22.

and have the conversations that need to be had.

:35:23.:35:24.

Whereas the SNP, they have local elections next year

:35:25.:35:32.

and their own party advantage to think about,

:35:33.:35:34.

are itching to get back to talking the vote.

:35:35.:35:37.

The opinion polls show that the Scottish people aren't any

:35:38.:35:40.

more or less ready to sail away from the rest of the UK,

:35:41.:35:43.

and it is the Government in London at the helm because only

:35:44.:35:46.

they have the power to offer a legally binding second vote.

:35:47.:35:48.

Well, as Adam said, a second independence referendum needs to be

:35:49.:35:52.

agreed by the UK Government, and it's not clear when the SNP

:35:53.:35:55.

But First Minister Nicola Sturgeon made a serious statement

:35:56.:35:59.

of intent this morning, as she announced plans to publish

:36:00.:36:01.

a draft referendum bill as early as next week.

:36:02.:36:08.

On the morning after the referendum, I said I would protect Scotland's

:36:09.:36:11.

In our programme for government, I committed to publishing

:36:12.:36:19.

I am determined that Scotland will have the ability to reconsider

:36:20.:36:26.

the question of independence, and to do so before the UK leaves

:36:27.:36:28.

the EU, if that is necessary to protect our country's interests.

:36:29.:36:37.

So, I can confirm today that the independence referendum

:36:38.:36:47.

bill will be published for consultation next week.

:36:48.:36:50.

Well, the other big news from the SNP conference this morning

:36:51.:37:03.

is that the party has elected a new Deputy Leader -

:37:04.:37:09.

or Depute as they say in Scotland - it's Angus Robertson and I'm

:37:10.:37:12.

pleased to say we're joined by him now.

:37:13.:37:14.

Welcome back. He launched the lemur gloss the Scottish referendum in

:37:15.:37:20.

2014 but you want another one. You lost the Brexit referendum this year

:37:21.:37:25.

but you want to try to thwart the Brexit process. Do you need to take

:37:26.:37:31.

remedial classes in democracy? You missed out the key important fact in

:37:32.:37:35.

there which was that 62% of people in Scotland voted to remain in the

:37:36.:37:39.

European Union as Democrats, and we believe that if the people voted

:37:40.:37:45.

that way, they should remain. But we voted as the United Kingdom, we did

:37:46.:37:48.

not vote in Scotland, Wales or England. If you would be so kind as

:37:49.:37:53.

to let me finish answering your first question, it would also be

:37:54.:37:57.

fair to point out that in 2014 many people who voted no to Scottish

:37:58.:38:01.

independence did so because they were told that unless they did we

:38:02.:38:04.

would find ourselves out of the European Union. Things have been

:38:05.:38:09.

turned on their head. We are facing the prospect of being taken out of

:38:10.:38:11.

the European Union against the wish of the majority of people in

:38:12.:38:15.

Scotland and that is why it behoves all Scottish leaders to work

:38:16.:38:18.

together to find ways of protecting our place in Europe and that is why

:38:19.:38:21.

we have signalled that we are prepared to work with the UK

:38:22.:38:24.

Government to ensure that happens. The only problem with that is that

:38:25.:38:30.

it takes a UK Government to respect the wishes of the people of Scotland

:38:31.:38:34.

who wants to remain in Europe and to work with the government to deliver

:38:35.:38:37.

that. There is no sign whatsoever that the UK Government is prepared

:38:38.:38:41.

to do that. What would trigger a second Scottish referendum? For

:38:42.:38:47.

viewers down so that is important to understand that there is a process

:38:48.:38:50.

underway in Scotland. The Scottish Government has experts advising on

:38:51.:38:57.

the different potential routes through which we could protect

:38:58.:39:01.

Scotland's place in Europe. For example, is the way of Scotland is

:39:02.:39:04.

staying in the single market while the rest of the UK leads? Are there

:39:05.:39:08.

ways of protecting citizenship rights while the UK takes another

:39:09.:39:13.

course? We need to understand the answers to those questions. But we

:39:14.:39:18.

all know that there is a way in which Scotland can remain within the

:39:19.:39:21.

European Union and that is as a member state. And that is why the

:39:22.:39:27.

First Minister announced that the route to doing that, through a

:39:28.:39:31.

referendum, given that we live in a democracy, is the best way to do

:39:32.:39:33.

that and we will prepare the ground work in case there are no other ways

:39:34.:39:37.

in which we can protect Scotland's place in Europe. Let me try again.

:39:38.:39:42.

What would trigger a second Scottish referendum? I think of Scotland is

:39:43.:39:46.

taken out of the European Union against the wishes of the people of

:39:47.:39:49.

Scotland and the only way of protecting our place in Europe is to

:39:50.:39:56.

be a sovereign state, that is what will trigger a referendum. A poll

:39:57.:40:00.

this morning suggests that 55% of people in Scotland are in favour of

:40:01.:40:04.

another referendum if we face the prospect of a hard Tory Brexit and

:40:05.:40:08.

that is what we are heading towards. It is not only about the choices we

:40:09.:40:13.

make, it is about the choices that the UK Government makes an Theresa

:40:14.:40:16.

May should have heard by now if she has not yet that the Scottish

:40:17.:40:21.

Government and the SNP is deadly serious when we say that we expect

:40:22.:40:26.

the borders of Scotland is to be respected and the UK Government to

:40:27.:40:29.

take their wishes seriously. But that rather depends on the Prime

:40:30.:40:32.

Minister and the Tory Party respecting Scotland. We were told

:40:33.:40:37.

that Scotland was an equal partner in the UK. There has not been a

:40:38.:40:46.

single iota... I am hoping to help... I am trying to get some

:40:47.:40:51.

clarity, I am trying to get through the rhetoric and get some clarity.

:40:52.:40:55.

On the government's current timetable we are scheduled to leave

:40:56.:41:00.

the EU at the beginning of 2019. If that timetable is adhered to, when

:41:01.:41:06.

will there be a second Scottish referendum? Well, I am surprised you

:41:07.:41:12.

think you are having answers from the UK Government on anything to do

:41:13.:41:16.

with Brexit because we sat in Parliament... Why don't you answer

:41:17.:41:20.

my question? I don't think we know for certain when the UK is planning

:41:21.:41:23.

to leave the EU. I don't think we know the conditions of the exit. I

:41:24.:41:27.

don't think we know whether they want to remain within the single

:41:28.:41:30.

market and I don't think we know whether they are prepared... Let me

:41:31.:41:34.

try to help you to answer the question. If it is clear that we

:41:35.:41:40.

will not be a member of the single market, we will have access to it

:41:41.:41:43.

but we will not be a member of the way we are now, would that trigger a

:41:44.:41:49.

second referendum? I don't think there is any ambiguity about this

:41:50.:41:54.

whatsoever. Let me say this. I do not want Scotland to leave the

:41:55.:42:00.

European Union. Four. Not now and not in the future. Can you answer my

:42:01.:42:08.

question? The answer to the question is I do not want us to leave the EU

:42:09.:42:11.

so if it becomes clear that there is a timetable that takes us out on

:42:12.:42:15.

hard Brexit terms, detrimental to our economy, then I will support a

:42:16.:42:19.

Scottish independence of random and if that needs to take place within

:42:20.:42:24.

the years before 2019, I am in favour. And what if we go out on the

:42:25.:42:28.

soft Brexit terms? Would that mean you would not trigger the

:42:29.:42:32.

referendum? You are making the point yourself, whatever that means. You

:42:33.:42:35.

used the words hard Brexit, what does that mean to you? It means

:42:36.:42:41.

taking us out of the single market, it means having tariffs. So Scottish

:42:42.:42:47.

business, the Scotch whiskey industry, for example, they sing

:42:48.:42:49.

tariffs to sell to other European countries. You have made the point

:42:50.:42:54.

that I am trying to undermine the Li Na underline. We have is that the

:42:55.:43:01.

point I am trying to underline. What we have started is a process that is

:43:02.:43:09.

seeking to... If we have another referendum that will determine the

:43:10.:43:12.

identity of an independent Scotland within the European Union within a

:43:13.:43:15.

number of years, I am in favour of that. Scotland runs the largest

:43:16.:43:20.

fiscal deficit in the Western world. The price of oil has collapsed. The

:43:21.:43:24.

oil industry is on its knees and your financial sector is in poor

:43:25.:43:28.

shape. You have very slow growth and you could not tell us what the

:43:29.:43:31.

currency will be in an independent Scotland. Other than that, what is

:43:32.:43:35.

the economic case for independence today? This week we have learned

:43:36.:43:40.

that the UK is facing losing ?66 billion in revenue and the pound is

:43:41.:43:45.

heading through the floor. That was a Project Fear report and you know

:43:46.:43:49.

that. It is dated to April. What is the case for Scotland? The UK

:43:50.:43:55.

economy is heading in a direction where we cannot even buy certain

:43:56.:43:57.

products on high streets supermarkets. We did not choose the

:43:58.:44:04.

circumstances in which we have found ourselves. We voted to remain within

:44:05.:44:07.

the European Union. The timetable that is being forced by the UK

:44:08.:44:12.

Government is one that is forcing people in Scotland to a choice. Have

:44:13.:44:17.

we chosen all of the circumstances? No. We'll all be economic

:44:18.:44:24.

circumstances be ideal? No. Are they for the UK? No. These are tough

:44:25.:44:28.

circumstances for everyone who was involved but the difference is that

:44:29.:44:32.

we have a democratic mandate in this country to remain within the

:44:33.:44:37.

European Union and as Democrats, it behoves us to support the wishes of

:44:38.:44:41.

this country. Wearing your hat as Deputy, I asked you the economic

:44:42.:44:44.

case but we will probably come back to that and I will try to get an

:44:45.:44:49.

answer. But with your new role as deputy leader this time last year

:44:50.:44:53.

the SNP was dining out on how it was going to be the real opposition in

:44:54.:44:56.

the Westminster Parliament. Now a year later, we see that you have

:44:57.:45:03.

wasted ?230,000 on frivolous early day motions, celebrating a

:45:04.:45:09.

constituent getting into the final 13 of missed Scotland. The 50th

:45:10.:45:12.

anniversary of Star Trek. And the unavailing of a Christmas tree will

:45:13.:45:16.

stop that is your members putting these things down. It costs money.

:45:17.:45:21.

How is that being the real opposition?

:45:22.:45:26.

A political party asks questions turns up at committees, takes part

:45:27.:45:31.

in debates and somehow it is condemned. I know other

:45:32.:45:35.

commentators, perhaps less partisan has said the SNP is the effective

:45:36.:45:40.

Opposition at Westminster and week in and week out I hold Theresa May

:45:41.:45:45.

and previously David Cameron to account, asking the difficult

:45:46.:45:48.

questions that the Labour Party riddled by internal division is

:45:49.:45:52.

unable to do. Most neutral observers believe the SNP is doing a good job

:45:53.:45:56.

at Westminster and my plan is to continue doing this, so long as

:45:57.:46:02.

Scotland is part of the UK. At least as part of one of your early day

:46:03.:46:09.

motions, I did know it was the 50th anniversary of Star Trek. Thank you

:46:10.:46:10.

for joining us. Well, the answer to that

:46:11.:46:12.

will depend on a lot of things, but according to the think-tank run

:46:13.:46:17.

by our Guest of the Day Philippa Stroud it could have a lot to do

:46:18.:46:20.

with where you live. And they've come up with their own

:46:21.:46:23.

league table to underline what they say is a failure to spread

:46:24.:46:26.

opportunity across the country. The UK Prosperity Index

:46:27.:46:28.

maps how well 389 local It's not just about wealth -

:46:29.:46:31.

but also economic opportunity, the business environment,

:46:32.:46:34.

health and education, safety and security -

:46:35.:46:38.

what they call "social capital", Waverley in Surrey

:46:39.:46:41.

comes top of the list, followed by Mole Valley,

:46:42.:46:46.

also in Surrey, and Winchester. The least prosperous region

:46:47.:46:53.

in the UK is said to be Hull, followed by Blackpool and

:46:54.:46:56.

Middlesborough. The index claims to show

:46:57.:46:59.

that the wealth in many cities is not translating into better lives

:47:00.:47:02.

for citizens, while rural areas are more prosperous

:47:03.:47:07.

despite being poorer. It also reveals that areas that

:47:08.:47:12.

voted to leave the EU were far more Well, to discuss this we're joined

:47:13.:47:15.

by two MPs representing areas near the top and bottom

:47:16.:47:21.

of the index. Paul Beresford is the MP

:47:22.:47:23.

for Mole Valley in Surrey, and Lilian Greenwood is the MP

:47:24.:47:25.

for Nottingham South. Welcome, both of you. So Surrey

:47:26.:47:32.

scored twice, two places in Surrey. What is so great about the area? It

:47:33.:47:37.

is run by Conservativep councils, as simple as that. All of the Surrey

:47:38.:47:42.

constituencies or councils in the top 100, but if you really want it

:47:43.:47:46.

tell you move a little further away and move into London, you see

:47:47.:47:52.

Wandsworth was ranked 125, control controlled, its neighbour, Lambeth,

:47:53.:47:55.

Labour-controlled has been for donkeys years, poor, down on 279.

:47:56.:48:00.

And those are like-for-like on paper but not in reality. So you are not

:48:01.:48:05.

to do as an MP, your surge ploys be empty. No-one will have any issue or

:48:06.:48:10.

problems, to come to see you That I wish were so but as I discussed with

:48:11.:48:14.

others, the more you solve the problems, the more others bring up

:48:15.:48:17.

minor problems but it has been successful. Were you surprised. Paul

:48:18.:48:24.

makes a partisan point about Conservative councils means

:48:25.:48:26.

prosperous areas. In your case, were you are surprised you were so down

:48:27.:48:32.

the list? In a sense I wasn't. The boundaries are incredibly tightly

:48:33.:48:41.

drawn, you see Nottingham come 381, RushClough comes 394th. We know

:48:42.:48:45.

people come and work in noting ha. There are parts of that that are

:48:46.:48:50.

closer to Nottingham city centre than parts of my constituency which

:48:51.:48:52.

skews the results but there is no doubt there are huge challenges to

:48:53.:48:58.

be faced in the cities, if I had a response to Paul's rather partisan

:48:59.:49:02.

point is that whereas a lot of the authorities in the top 20 have seen

:49:03.:49:08.

cutses of around 10% in their spending, places like Nottingham and

:49:09.:49:12.

other deprived cities over the past five years have seen cuts in their

:49:13.:49:17.

spending power of 30% or more. So if the Government were serious about

:49:18.:49:20.

tackling the impacts of deprivation, they shouldn't be actually making

:49:21.:49:24.

them worse by cutting local authorities like ours. So, Philippa

:49:25.:49:29.

Stroud is it all about Government spending, fetedering the nests of

:49:30.:49:32.

Conservative councils and not giving money where it needed? Actually the

:49:33.:49:36.

report says almost the opposite to that. This is definitely a report

:49:37.:49:40.

defining prosperity as economic stepping and taking hold of the

:49:41.:49:45.

economic opportunities and driving those forward but also about social

:49:46.:49:49.

capital, about whether or not you feel like you have a family member

:49:50.:49:53.

who you could call on in times of trouble or whether or not you had

:49:54.:49:56.

friends in the community or whether or not there was volunteering going

:49:57.:49:59.

on in your community. It was about the strength of your community as

:50:00.:50:03.

well as the economic strength. And we've definitely seen that in rurl

:50:04.:50:09.

areas, even if they are less economically prosperous, actually

:50:10.:50:13.

the social cohesion and the way they work together, supporting one

:50:14.:50:16.

another, is much stronger than in some of our cities. Right. I mean

:50:17.:50:20.

they are very different places, clearly, cities and rural areas, we

:50:21.:50:26.

talking about villages compared to big city centres, but can't thereby

:50:27.:50:30.

cohesion in city centres or some other major metropolises?

:50:31.:50:35.

Absolutely. I mean this is a static snapshot, where I look at where

:50:36.:50:38.

Nottingham is going, there is lots of improvement. For example we are

:50:39.:50:42.

seeing high employment levels, going faster than other core cities. We

:50:43.:50:48.

have the lowest level of young people not in employment, education

:50:49.:50:50.

and training. There are challenges, I wouldn't deny that for a moment

:50:51.:50:56.

but it is ridiculous to suggest that funding levels don't matter, because

:50:57.:51:00.

libraries are a really important part of creating a social capital,

:51:01.:51:04.

hubs for local areas. I absolutely disagree. And the ability to invest

:51:05.:51:09.

in things that matter and actually in Nottingham there is investment

:51:10.:51:15.

going on. For For 20 to 25 years, since Wandsworth has been

:51:16.:51:18.

Conservative-controlled on a like-for-like basis it has received

:51:19.:51:21.

the lowest Government grant, regardless of the nature of the

:51:22.:51:23.

Government. Yet it has gone forward and up. If you go into Wandsworth

:51:24.:51:28.

now they have been building or planning more properties over the

:51:29.:51:31.

next five years than the rest of London put together. You have a lot

:51:32.:51:35.

of expertise in Wandsworth. Absolutely because I used to be the

:51:36.:51:39.

council... I wondered if there was any knowledge But I drive through it

:51:40.:51:43.

every day. I can see the difference. But Paul, it is no surprise, is t

:51:44.:51:48.

when you actually look at the list of the most prosperous authorities,

:51:49.:51:52.

they are in the south-east, broadly, excludeing London but they are in

:51:53.:51:55.

the south-east. Why is there still such a great divide between those

:51:56.:51:59.

areas and some of the #20u7b towns and cities, one of which Lilian

:52:00.:52:02.

represents - and the towns and cities. It depends on the local

:52:03.:52:05.

authority. One surprise I got was Manchester. I know a lot about

:52:06.:52:09.

Manchester. When I was a minister I was working with Manchester. To us

:52:10.:52:12.

Labour-controlled it is much lower down the scale than I thought it

:52:13.:52:17.

ought to be. It is go-ahead. I know it is Labour-controlled but it is

:52:18.:52:21.

go-ahead and moving forward and I think when we see Manchester in two,

:52:22.:52:25.

three, four years you will see it is a will the further up the scale. Do

:52:26.:52:28.

you not think Philippa, when you look at places like Hull and

:52:29.:52:33.

mid-brels yu, these are places in the UK that have suffered decades of

:52:34.:52:36.

structural problems because of the industries that were dominant there.

:52:37.:52:39.

-- Middlesbrough. They still haven't caught up. That must be Government

:52:40.:52:43.

that have not done enough to help? What was really interesting, we

:52:44.:52:47.

showcased Hull in the report. And you can see the devastation of the

:52:48.:52:51.

fishing industry and the impact that that has had. Inane you see the next

:52:52.:52:58.

- and you see the next generation coming through, uncertain about

:52:59.:53:01.

where they are going to go in terms of employment and skills but what is

:53:02.:53:04.

interesting is that the schools in Hull now are getting hold of that

:53:05.:53:09.

and are really beginning to talk about self-employment,

:53:10.:53:11.

entrepreneurialism. These are the ways of lifting the heads of these

:53:12.:53:15.

young people and saying - there are opportunities out there for you. So

:53:16.:53:19.

it wouldn't surprise me if, in a few years' time, we see Hull beginning

:53:20.:53:22.

to move up, but it is about empowering these individuals. Well

:53:23.:53:26.

come back next time and let's see if they have gone in reverse, Paul? ?

:53:27.:53:36.

Mole Valley and Nottingham? Is the area rich P because it is Tory or is

:53:37.:53:41.

it Tory because it is rich? That's today's existential question. Well,

:53:42.:53:42.

we'll leave that. Now, David Cameron this week

:53:43.:53:45.

revealed his first new job since he stepped down

:53:46.:53:47.

as Prime Minister and as an MP. It wasn't signing up

:53:48.:53:50.

for a lucrative lecture tour or a lucrative directorship -

:53:51.:53:52.

although of course those to expand the National Citizens

:53:53.:53:54.

Service, a kind of non-military But he needs to act fast

:53:55.:53:59.

to save his reputation if one survey It says that university academics

:54:00.:54:05.

specialising in politics believe he is among Britain's

:54:06.:54:11.

worst post-war PMs. I bet they wouldn't say that

:54:12.:54:13.

to his face. Let's look at the winners and loser

:54:14.:54:25.

in this particular Prime Minister hall of fame or shame and failure.

:54:26.:54:31.

survey, Labour's Clement Attlee, whose government created the NHS,

:54:32.:54:35.

He was followed by Margaret Thatcher,

:54:36.:54:37.

who - as the PM who declared victory over Argentina in the Falklands -

:54:38.:54:41.

scored highly for "shaping Britain's role in the world".

:54:42.:54:43.

Coming after the so-called "Iron Lady" was Tony Blair,

:54:44.:54:45.

who led Labour to a historic three terms in office -

:54:46.:54:48.

and, more controversially - took the UK to war in

:54:49.:54:50.

Sir Anthony Eden, whose term in office was overshadowed

:54:51.:54:55.

by the Suez crisis, was ranked last.

:54:56.:55:02.

Just above him was Sir Alec Douglas-Home, who was seen as out of

:55:03.:55:05.

touch and whose tenure as PM lasted only a year.

:55:06.:55:07.

He was ridiculed for saying that he used matchsticks to help him

:55:08.:55:10.

with 9 in 10 of those polled pointing to this year's EU

:55:11.:55:20.

One academic said it was the greatest defeat of any PM

:55:21.:55:28.

"since Lord North lost America".

:55:29.:55:31.

The academics were asked to rank his two terms separately.

:55:32.:55:33.

When in Coalition with the Lib Dems, his score put him in

:55:34.:55:36.

But after taking into account his second term -

:55:37.:55:40.

as leader of the Conservative majority government -

:55:41.:55:42.

his overall score dropped.

:55:43.:55:44.

Joining us now is Kevin Theakston, Professor of British Politics

:55:45.:55:55.

at Leeds University, who carried out the survey.

:55:56.:55:59.

He is in our Leeds' studio. Welcome. You really think David Cameron

:56:00.:56:07.

deserves to be down there with Alec Douglas Hume who was only leader for

:56:08.:56:12.

about a year and Anthony Eden who took us into the disastrous Suez

:56:13.:56:17.

expedition? Well, David Cameron did look a pretty successful Prime

:56:18.:56:22.

Minister in 20 #15, as we have just seen and, you know - the 2015,

:56:23.:56:26.

running the Coalition Government success flan tackling the economy.

:56:27.:56:30.

That put him pretty much in the middle of our league table but I

:56:31.:56:34.

think the academics we polled see Brexit as a major disaster, a

:56:35.:56:39.

crisis, a self-inflicted one and that's put him down there at the

:56:40.:56:44.

bottom of our poll. To what extent is it that the academics that you

:56:45.:56:49.

polled are overwhelmingly in favour of Remain and just resent that Mr

:56:50.:56:53.

Cameron made it possible for us to leave? Well, I think it is true that

:56:54.:56:58.

a lot of university opinion is Remain. And there are understandable

:56:59.:57:03.

reasons for that. But I think the poll does say more about the Prime

:57:04.:57:07.

Ministers than about the professors, as it were. And it makes us think

:57:08.:57:14.

about what is behind successful leadership, and what the less

:57:15.:57:18.

successful Prime Ministers have in common, like losing elections, or

:57:19.:57:24.

facing major foreign policy disasters, or being drummed rather

:57:25.:57:31.

human I will latingly out of office. Well speaking of major foreign

:57:32.:57:35.

policy disasters, where is Tony Blair at number 3? It is an

:57:36.:57:38.

interesting score. The legacy of Iraq will loom large in the

:57:39.:57:42.

historical record. Still is. But Tony Blair did win three general

:57:43.:57:45.

elections in a rewith big majorities. He left a big record of

:57:46.:57:50.

domestic achievement. He changed the country in pretty fundamental ways

:57:51.:57:55.

and all of those things do help cement his reputation as a high

:57:56.:58:00.

achieving Prime Minister, overall. And why is Clem Attlee rated above

:58:01.:58:05.

Margaret Thatcher? Although you have Mrs Thatcher at 2 and Mr Attlee at

:58:06.:58:11.

1? Yes, I think those two Prime Ministers, Attlee and Thatcher, they

:58:12.:58:13.

are the great weather-makers of post-war Britain. They have major

:58:14.:58:17.

domestic legacies and they changed the political landscape. They

:58:18.:58:22.

affected politics for decades after them and all their successors had to

:58:23.:58:26.

respond to their agendas and their achievements. So they are pretty

:58:27.:58:31.

neck-and-neck but it looks like Attlee was just slightly ahead of

:58:32.:58:36.

thatch. A professor, a fascinating survey. Thank you for being with us

:58:37.:58:41.

today. Very briefly, would you place Mr Cameron down with Alex Douglas

:58:42.:58:47.

Hume and Anthony Eden I suspect he was placed there because he was most

:58:48.:58:51.

recent. I think Gordon Brown was the last one placed there. He was more

:58:52.:58:52.

in the middle. There's just time before we go

:58:53.:58:54.

to find out the answer to our quiz. The question was why was the SNP's

:58:55.:58:57.

Angus MacNeill ticked off for "unstatesmanlike behaviour"

:58:58.:59:00.

by the speaker John Bercow I don't think she knows.

:59:01.:59:05.

I'm sure Andrew can help? Or maybe not. Did he a, have his shirt

:59:06.:59:11.

untucked, was he picking his nose, chewing gum or, playing games on his

:59:12.:59:13.

mobile? Picking hi nose. Wrong. Chewing gum.

:59:14.:59:16.

The One O'Clock News is starting over on BBC One now.

:59:17.:59:21.

I'll be on This Week with Katie Hopkins, Miranda Green,

:59:22.:59:23.

Katie Melua, Michael Portillo and Michael Dugher

:59:24.:59:26.

Jo Coburn and Andrew Neil are joined by former Conservative special advisor Baroness Philippa Stroud and others to discuss Brexit, welfare reform, the SNP party conference and Britain's worst prime minister.


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