14/10/2016 Daily Politics


14/10/2016

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LineFromTo

Afternoon, folks, and welcome to the Daily Politics.

:00:36.:00:41.

The Foreign Secretary has called for more "kinetic" action to stop

:00:42.:00:43.

But do increasing tensions between Russia and the West mean

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an end to the bloodshed is further away than ever?

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The President of the European Council, Donald Tusk,

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says the UK can't have its cake and eat it.

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Is he right that the only alternative to hard

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Theresa May would like to end the ban on new selective

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But - even if she gets them through the Commons -

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could her plans be scuppered in the Lords?

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Nicola Sturgeon says that if she doesn't like the look

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of Theresa May's Brexit deal, she'll call a second

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So which union do delegates at the SNP conference prefer -

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The fact I voted Brexit I would still vote the EU over the UK. You

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voted to leave? You are in the SNP. I thought they did not exist!

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All that in the next hour, and who better to react to those

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stories than the editor of the website

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And the journalist Rosa Prince, whose biography of Theresa May

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And we'll start with Theresa May because she's meeting a gaggle,

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or whatever the collective term is, of British Ambassadors

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Britain in the other EU member states.

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for strong relations with our European partners to pave

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the way for smooth Brexit negotiations.

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Theresa May herself has been on a tour of European capitals this

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week where she emphasised that the decision to leave

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the EU did not mean the UK retreating into isolationism.

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Last night the President of the European Council,

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that's the body that represents heads of government of the EU,

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warned that Britain could not have its cake and eat it.

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The brutal truth is that Brexit will be a loss for all of us.

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There will be no cakes on the table for anyone.

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If you ask me if there is any alternative to this bad scenario,

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I would like to tell you that yes, there is.

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And I think it is useless to speculate about soft Brexit,

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because of all the reasons I've mentioned.

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This would be purely theoretical speculation.

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In my opinion, the only real alternative to a hard

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That was Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council. Has he cuts

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through a lot of nonsense spoken in this country? It is quite clear, if

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we are not going to be in the single market as a member, which is the

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implication of everything the government tells us, then it is what

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we are calling a hard Brexit, we are out the single market? I so. I am

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not sure where the idea came from it could be any other way. One thing

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that came through loud and clear during the referendum was people

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were unhappy about levels of immigration and migration from the

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EU, which means no freedom of movement and no membership of the

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single market. There were food metaphors flying around, and I think

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that is the nub of the issue. What the government will have to try to

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do is somehow forge, perhaps that is why ambassadors are there, forge

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relationships separately with these countries. George Osborne, David

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Cameron made it clear, saying during the referendum campaign that a vote

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to leave is a vote to leave the single market. Why is this still an

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issue? I disagree slightly on the Donald Tusk speech. To me it is

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standard diplomacy and business negotiation. He is laying out a hard

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position on behalf of the government 's who will decide, rather than the

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commission and European Parliament. That is how negotiations work. I

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think you are right, Andrew, but there are various ways to leave it

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and there is the possibility of a soft -ish Brexit, a compromise on

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quotas and immigration, some copper wires on the City of London, is

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certainly feasible. We are focused on the British angle but the biggest

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obstacle is European politics, the 27 are not speaking as one, despite

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what Donald Tusk indicated. Europe is extremely fragile. You look at

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how the Hungarians are attempting to bully the Germans. The French

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elections coming up, Austria, the Italian banks, Deutsche Bank. Donald

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Tusk is saying what he has to say, it is the beginning of a

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negotiation, but I think hopefully there is at some point room for

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compromise. When Mrs May trigger 's Article 50 to begin the Brexit

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process sometime in the first quarter of next year, for all the

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reasons he has given, German and French elections, the turmoil, not

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much will happen until we see the new face of Europe. One asked how

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they could do negotiations until they know who they are negotiating

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with. Francois Hollande might not be there. Angela Merkel could be the

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walking wounded after an election. This one, I think that is right. We

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can have a clearer picture in March, I think that is a fallacy. It will

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take a couple of years at the very least. There is a tendency in

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debilitating to see every story through the prism of Brexit, or from

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the agenda of the Remain and Leave people. The Marmite story would not

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have been touched had it not been for Brexit. People decided to pursue

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it for their own agenda. It is difficult and I speak as someone who

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is a moderate lever. It applies on both sides, people leap on stories

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that appear to confirm the position they were attached to four months

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ago. The media is complicit, keeping on looking for a Brexit angle.

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Unilever and Tesco constantly have negotiations which we never cover

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but because there might be a Brexit angle, suddenly it is leading every

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newscast and is on the front page of every paper. It took us a while to

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catch up that Unilever had also asked, all told the Irish

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supermarkets, it was putting up prices there and the last time I

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looked island is not leaving and uses the euro. The head of PR for

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Tesco deserves a bonus! It applies to the pound and the way the

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fluctuations of the pound are reported. Of course there are

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downsides but there are upsides with a tourist boom under way in the UK

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and exports should flourish. Prices will rise, there is no doubt about

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that, but we have a long way to go. I am glad we have you here today.

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Let's have a quits. The question for today

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is all about the United Nations, which yesterday appointed

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Antonio Guterres as its At the end of the show we'll

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see if Rosa and Iain Now, yesterday, Nicola Sturgeon

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surprised the SNP conference in Glasgow by announcing right

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from its start that she would next week publish a consultation

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on a bill for a second independence She has said she wants Theresa May

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to negotiate a Brexit deal that would enable Scotland to remain

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in the single market after the UK leaves the EU,

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and Scotland would have the right to hold a second independence

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referendum if that isn't achieved. Here's what she had to say

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on Breakfast this morning. I think the UK right now

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is potentially about to take a step off the edge of a cliff by coming

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out of the single market, and I don't want that

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to happen to Scotland. I actually don't want that

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to happen to the UK. I respect the fact that England

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and Wales voted to leave the EU, but I don't think the Prime Minister

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has a mandate to take the UK out I want to explore every option

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to protect Scotland's vital economic interests,

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and I set out very clearly yesterday how I will try to do that,

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and try to do that in discussion But ultimately, if the Prime

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Minister and the UK Government doesn't listen, if they are intent

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on ignoring Scotland's voice, then I think Scotland should

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have the option to consider again So that's what the first Minister

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thinks - but what about her party? Our Adam's been out with his balls

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in Glasgow to find out which Union Well, let's test the mood

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of SNP activists here in Glasgow with this question -

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which union do you prefer, Well, some of the rules I don't

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like, some of the rules I Its openness and inclusiveness,

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definitely compared to the UK we are

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seeing at present. Has the UK got anything

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good going for it? I just feel that the way the EU

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is run, with everybody being equal. You know, different countries

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all coming together. Do you think Malta has

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as much power as Germany? No, I don't mean that,

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I think it's the outlook. Despite the fact I voted Brexit,

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I'd still pick the EU over the UK. Grab a ball, the Daily

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Politics, grab a ball. I think it's time, sooner rather

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than later, that we get When would you ideally

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like to have the next referendum? Has Nicola Sturgeon got the power

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to have another referendum? I think it's Westminster has

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the power. Scotland's voice is being heard,

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and will continue to do so. And the vessel at the moment

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is Nicola Sturgeon. She is the vessel for

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the people of Scotland. Which union do

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Because I am a European citizen, and I don't want my human rights

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"I'm with Nicola", well, you're with Nicola.

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He did actually, and it was a surprise this morning.

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"The Scottish lion has roared, Alex Salmond, 8th of May 2015."

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Are you proud to have Alex Salmond on your chest?

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What do you think about the five people that have put balls in there?

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I don't know who they are, are they journalists?

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No, they were people at the conference, apart from one

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guy who was just walking through the conference venue.

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It's interesting, and they are voices we should listen

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to as we take discussions forward in the future.

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You're not going to hunt them down and kick them out?

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Absolutely not, we're not that kind of party.

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Which union do you prefer, the UK or the EU?

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Well, it doesn't get much more conclusive than that.

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It would be even more so if it wasn't for the impostor just walking

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through the conference centre, who put that one in.

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We're joined now by the SNP's Mike Russell, who is

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the Scottish Minister for UK Negotiations on Scotland's

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If as Britain heads for the door it is clear that that will involve no

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longer having membership of the single market, will that trigger an

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independence referendum in Scotland? Well, I think Nicola was clear. We

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are at the stage of looking at the options that we have. One of those

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options is independence, is right to prepare for those options, and

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that's what we are starting to do. My job is to discuss those options

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with those who are formulating them, including a la cancelled advisers to

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negotiate on those options. Independence is of course an option.

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Just to be clear, is membership of the single market a red line? If it

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is clear in coming out the United Kingdom will not be a member, it

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will have access but not have membership of the single market, you

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would want a second referendum? Membership of the single market is

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extremely important to us. Free movement of labour is important. 9%

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of our doctors, 12% of our care staff come from the EU. It is of

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great importance. There are no negotiations yet with the UK

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Government that had been slow in starting. There aren't red

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would you want a referendum before Britain left the EQ or would you

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wait until afterwards? We haven't even started those discussions yet.

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It would be premature of me to talk about timing. There is opinion and

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advice on both sides of that. You are always well read in these

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matters. The important stage we are in is to consider the options to

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negotiate with the UK Government. They've been slow on that and some

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of the noises are not at all helpful. To have those negotiations

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and to come to the conclusion. The Scottish Parliament asked the

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Scottish Government to do that. We are fulfilling that mandate. We also

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have a mandate from the Scottish people. 62% voted not to leave.

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That's a very important issue in this nation. They did indeed but

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there is no polling to suggest their demand for another referendum has

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got any higher despite they didn't get their way in the Brexit

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referendum. You only had a referendum a couple of years ago and

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here you are talking about another one because you did that time round.

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There has been a material change in the circumstances and that is a

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phrase we used in our manifesto. There has been a material change. We

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were promised in the referendum voting no would mean staying in the

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EU. It did not turn out that way. We have an opportunity to look at our

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national future and look at all the options. It may be a deal-breaker,

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it may be a watershed event for you and those behind you in the SNP but

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I struggle to find evidence it is a watershed event for people in

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Scotland. The latest polling is 47% of people do not want a second

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referendum as against 38% to do. Again, a clear majority. A clear

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lead of people who don't want one. You do. You are not necessarily in

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tune with the Scottish people on this. I would advise you to the cook

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the detail of the poll more carefully. Look at the question

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asked about hard Brexit. What we are seeing from the UK Government. In

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those circumstances people want a second referendum. We are seeing the

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hardest of Brexits and we are seeing the reaction from Brussels. Which is

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if that is what the UK Government say they want to Donald Tusk is

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saying you can have it. We are in difficult times and we need to apply

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rationality which is looking we consider the options, decide on the

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options and move forward. That is what we are going to do and is what

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we are engaged on. It is the default position. You harp on about a

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referendum until you win one. I don't harp on about anything. We

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have known each other for years and we have a rational conversation. The

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circumstances in Scotland require us to consider that question again as

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part of a range of options. That is what Nicholas said, that is what I

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said today, that is what the party is saying. We will look at the

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options, come to a conclusion, and we should be ready for all options,

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including independence. You will be familiar with the fact that the

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Quebec generational obsession with independence cost the Quebec economy

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dear. It was an advantage to Toronto and a loss to Montreal during these

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years, because of the constitutional issue that created uncertainty. Do

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you not fear the same for the Scottish economy?

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The plunge in the pound to its lowest level, the way in which

:20:51.:20:57.

businesses are looking at investing elsewhere, the warning from the

:20:58.:21:01.

Japanese government, as a result of a Tory obsession with Europe that is

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costing us dear. The options we consider will have to be the options

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that get us out of that position and that includes independence. Your

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country has a massive fiscal deficit and the oil industry a key part of

:21:18.:21:23.

the economy is in decline and the financial services, the second part

:21:24.:21:27.

of your economy are seriously depleted and your girth rate is

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lacklustre. Should you concentrate on these -- growth rate. Should you

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concentrate on these issues that matter to Scottish people rather

:21:37.:21:39.

than the referendum. We should be concentrating on the way in which we

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improve our economy, we improve our democracy and social cohesion. The

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options we are looking at our options

:21:51.:22:00.

we are considering under Brexit. The decline in Scotland would become

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much worse, precipitous, would we to go along with what the Tories want

:22:05.:22:06.

with Brexit. That is a disaster. You talk about the financial sector,

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thousands of jobs would be lost with no single market. That is the

:22:10.:22:13.

reality of where the union has taken Scotland and I think the people of

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Scotland will want to look at options. My job is to consider the

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options and negotiate on them. There is no decision about which option is

:22:23.:22:26.

needed but the portrait you paint a Scotland is not only inaccurate now,

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but it could become true if Brexit has its way. I am not sure anything

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I said is factually inaccurate. John Swinney, a collie, said it would be

:22:38.:22:44.

the intention, even in a second independence referendum, with

:22:45.:22:47.

England out of the EU but Scotland in, that you would want to use the

:22:48.:22:53.

pound sterling. By what stretch of the imagination would you think

:22:54.:22:59.

Brussels would allow you to join the EU and use a currency of a country

:23:00.:23:04.

not in the EU? It would be a kindness to use the pound given its

:23:05.:23:09.

lack of strength at the moment. We might be doing the rest of the UK a

:23:10.:23:13.

favour. Those negotiations for another time. The present situation

:23:14.:23:18.

is looking for options we had and taking them forward. That is what we

:23:19.:23:21.

are determined to do and that is what we are going to do. Thanks for

:23:22.:23:31.

joining us. Iain Martin, to what extent is this talk of a second

:23:32.:23:35.

referendum, and she came right onto the stage, at the start of the

:23:36.:23:39.

conference, she even surprised her own delegates by bringing it up so

:23:40.:23:45.

quickly, but to what extent is this positioning for a second referendum

:23:46.:23:49.

or party management? It is a bit of both but I think it should be taken

:23:50.:23:56.

seriously. I think she will take that option if the polls are aligned

:23:57.:24:02.

and if Brexit goes badly and if for example the UK was in recession. The

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biggest advantage the SNP have and it is shown by the scale of their

:24:12.:24:14.

conference, is this incredible organisation and this amazing

:24:15.:24:18.

membership. Activists on the ground, digital operation. The question for

:24:19.:24:22.

Unionists, who just about got away with it last time, better together,

:24:23.:24:26.

the old Labour generation that helped to win the referendum last

:24:27.:24:32.

time are gone. Who will be the force is arguing for the union? Certainly

:24:33.:24:37.

Ruth Davidson. Will it be Theresa May, is that a plus? I think they

:24:38.:24:43.

are setting it up so that if circumstances align, she will go for

:24:44.:24:49.

it. She says she is keeping her options open. In some ways the bar

:24:50.:24:56.

for independence is higher than in 2014. It is possible Scotland could

:24:57.:25:01.

vote for independence, or indeed it will probably have to vote for

:25:02.:25:04.

independence without knowing if it is going to be allowed to join the

:25:05.:25:11.

EU, and given the size of the deficit and the currency, I find it

:25:12.:25:15.

inconceivable Brussels would allow a member country joining to use the

:25:16.:25:20.

pound. It would almost certainly have to go for the euro. If Scotland

:25:21.:25:25.

found itself out of the UK and then out of the EU. You spoke about

:25:26.:25:30.

newspapers tying everything onto Brexit, I think the SNP is guilty of

:25:31.:25:35.

that, trying to say now is the time for another referendum because of

:25:36.:25:41.

Brexit. I can see the logic but it seems a stretch. The Scottish people

:25:42.:25:45.

have referendum fatigue, it does not seem to be the time while everything

:25:46.:25:50.

is in the air for it to happen. I kind of see the SNP leadership would

:25:51.:25:58.

not want it, with the polls. The SNP has a powerful point when they say

:25:59.:26:06.

in the last Scottish referendum, the Unionists, it was argued that

:26:07.:26:09.

Scotland could seamlessly joined the EU. The union said the only sure way

:26:10.:26:14.

of Scotland remaining a member of the EU was to stay in the UK. How

:26:15.:26:21.

did that work out? It did not work out. A load of nonsense.

:26:22.:26:32.

It is a question to which no one can know the answer. The lesson they

:26:33.:26:36.

draw from the EU referendum is people are prepared to take an

:26:37.:26:41.

economic gamble for self-government taking back control. They studied

:26:42.:26:45.

the referendum carefully. Their gamble is Project Fear, or something

:26:46.:26:51.

like it, or a warning about the size of the deficit, the oil industry,

:26:52.:26:56.

all of that somehow will not apply if there is a second referendum. And

:26:57.:27:01.

as the SNP point out they are starting from a higher base with the

:27:02.:27:07.

activist network. And they are closer in the polls, although they

:27:08.:27:12.

are behind, closer to when the first referendum started.

:27:13.:27:14.

Now, Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has called a meeting with US

:27:15.:27:17.

Secretary of State John Kerry and other foreign ministers

:27:18.:27:19.

this weekend to consider a new way forward to resolve

:27:20.:27:21.

But with tensions rising between Russia and the United States

:27:22.:27:25.

following an attack on a UN aid convoy in Aleppo last month,

:27:26.:27:29.

Last night, the new UN Secretary-General called

:27:30.:27:35.

on the international community to broker a solution to a conflict

:27:36.:27:38.

that has already claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.

:27:39.:27:44.

Antonio Guterres said ending the conflict in Syria

:27:45.:27:46.

He was one of many world leaders who spoke out on the ongoing

:27:47.:27:54.

On Monday, France's President Hollande suggested Russian officials

:27:55.:28:00.

could face war crimes charges over the ongoing bombardment of Aleppo.

:28:01.:28:09.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin dismissed the suggestions,

:28:10.:28:12.

telling French media the accusations were rhetoric

:28:13.:28:14.

that did not take into account the realities in Syria.

:28:15.:28:16.

Meanwhile, Boris Johnson said Russia was in danger of becoming a pariah

:28:17.:28:19.

nation, during an emergency debate held in Parliament on Tuesday.

:28:20.:28:25.

The Foreign Secretary also called for demonstrations outside

:28:26.:28:27.

Moscow hit back by accusing him of Russophobic hysteria,

:28:28.:28:36.

while Russian officials in London criticised his comments on Twitter.

:28:37.:28:41.

Some MPs have called for a no-fly zone over Aleppo,

:28:42.:28:46.

which would involve Western powers being prepared to destroy Russian

:28:47.:28:51.

and Syrian war planes and air defences.

:28:52.:28:53.

Others have urged for so-called no-bombing zones to create safe

:28:54.:28:58.

areas and protect civilians. Those military options seemed a step

:28:59.:29:01.

closer yesterday when Boris Johnson told MPs it was time to consider

:29:02.:29:08.

more "kinetic" action to stop Aleppo being "pulverised".

:29:09.:29:16.

You might puzzle over what kinetic means. Do not do that too much.

:29:17.:29:23.

Because within hours, his comments were played

:29:24.:29:25.

spokesman, who said, "There are no plans

:29:26.:29:28.

As mentioned, that statement from the Prime Minister's

:29:29.:29:31.

office was in response to Boris Johnson's comments

:29:32.:29:33.

to the Foreign Affairs Select Committee.

:29:34.:29:34.

Let's hear more of what he had to say.

:29:35.:29:36.

Most people, I think, are now changing their minds

:29:37.:29:41.

about this and thinking, we can't let this go on for ever,

:29:42.:29:45.

we can't just see Aleppo pulverised in this way, we have

:29:46.:29:47.

And I thought the mood of the House of Commons the other

:29:48.:29:51.

Whether that means we can get a coalition together for more

:29:52.:30:02.

kinetic action now, I cannot prophesy, but certainly

:30:03.:30:08.

what most people want to see is a new set of options.

:30:09.:30:12.

Here with me to discuss this further are Dr Karin von

:30:13.:30:15.

Hippel, Director-General of the Royal United

:30:16.:30:17.

Doctor, there is a lot of hand-wringing, a lot of something

:30:18.:30:33.

must be done. Are we any clearer what could be done? At this stage it

:30:34.:30:40.

is difficult. The only real option I think to get the Russians to change

:30:41.:30:45.

behaviour is using force in some capacity, whether it is a no-fly

:30:46.:30:50.

zone, no bombing zone, but both would require shooting down Russian

:30:51.:30:55.

jets and I'm not sure the Obama administration is ready to do that.

:30:56.:30:59.

At this stage in the American election cycle, looking at a

:31:00.:31:03.

president who has tried to withdraw his country from the Middle East,

:31:04.:31:10.

over the eight years in power, is it conceivable he would want to get

:31:11.:31:13.

dragged in in the final two months of his presidency? He has said many

:31:14.:31:18.

times force is not an option and that has put secretary Kerry in a

:31:19.:31:22.

bad position because he can only do so much finger wagging with the

:31:23.:31:26.

Russians with nothing in his back pocket. I do not think Obama will do

:31:27.:31:32.

anything. Potentially some sort of escalation after the results are in

:31:33.:31:37.

from the election because it is possible that any negative happening

:31:38.:31:40.

security wise would only benefit Donald Trump's candidacy. John

:31:41.:31:47.

Woodcock, if there is no stomach in the White House for a no-fly zone,

:31:48.:31:53.

or a no bombing zone, I'm not sure of the difference, but if there is

:31:54.:31:57.

no stomach for that, it is not going to happen? It is very difficult if

:31:58.:32:03.

the US does not want to be part of the coalition but there are options.

:32:04.:32:09.

Let me quickly say what I think is the difference between a no-fly zone

:32:10.:32:13.

and no bombing zone. I agreed with so much with what my colleague said

:32:14.:32:19.

just then. The no bombing zone option would not entail shooting

:32:20.:32:23.

down Russian planes. I understand why, for many, that would be an

:32:24.:32:28.

aggravation. How would you enforce it? What the Syrians suggest and I

:32:29.:32:34.

was in Istanbul last week, talking to the exiled opposition leadership,

:32:35.:32:41.

they are saying there would be a response for every time there was a

:32:42.:32:50.

strike by Russia or Syria deliberately on civilians. They

:32:51.:32:54.

would be a response from the coalition to target Assad's military

:32:55.:32:58.

infrastructure so we would not be shooting down planes in the air and

:32:59.:33:03.

we would not target Russia, we would target the regime of Assad,

:33:04.:33:08.

primarily using naval assets, missiles rather than the potential

:33:09.:33:13.

for getting involved in any dogfight over Syrian airspace. And what if

:33:14.:33:17.

the Russians decide to put Russian forces to protect this

:33:18.:33:25.

infrastructure? I don't think Russia is wanting a conflict with the west.

:33:26.:33:29.

It has nothing like the capacity to do that. Its economy is in very

:33:30.:33:37.

severe recession. There is a place for Russia as a constructive

:33:38.:33:42.

partner, but the need for us to step up the degree of firmness where we

:33:43.:33:49.

are putting military options on the table is because Vladimir Putin has

:33:50.:33:54.

sensed the weakness from the west from 2013, that vote, and before

:33:55.:33:59.

that. He cares nothing for the humanitarian consequences of what he

:34:00.:34:03.

is doing. He does not care about being a pariah state in the UN. He

:34:04.:34:08.

will push and push as long as he feels there is a weakness in the

:34:09.:34:12.

rest of the international community that will letting get away with it.

:34:13.:34:17.

Let me pin you down. There is a lot of something must be done rhetoric,

:34:18.:34:22.

but it is important to work out what it means. Supposing in the no

:34:23.:34:28.

bombing zone, the Russians put anti-missile batteries around the

:34:29.:34:30.

Syrian infrastructure that you might want to bomb and in the process of

:34:31.:34:35.

bombing you take out Russian antimissile batteries? What will

:34:36.:34:36.

happen? Russia will only end up being part

:34:37.:34:46.

of this confrontation if it makes itself. If it wants actively to be

:34:47.:34:52.

so. I do not think when push comes to shove, Russia wants to do that.

:34:53.:34:59.

You don't know, do you? Undoubtedly there will be a ramping up of the

:35:00.:35:04.

rhetoric from President Putin. The alternative has been to effectively

:35:05.:35:10.

to protest, to say Russia don't do this. But to do nothing while it

:35:11.:35:16.

does more and more, it has unilaterally invaded another

:35:17.:35:21.

European country, in the Ukraine... We know all that. There seems to be

:35:22.:35:27.

no public appetite. How many people would be outside the American

:35:28.:35:30.

embassy if it was the Americans dropping barrel bombs on Aleppo? The

:35:31.:35:36.

point that was made... Thousands, thousands. How many Labour

:35:37.:35:39.

colleagues have been outside the Russian Embassy, given that Russia

:35:40.:35:45.

has been complicit in barrel bombing? It was an important point

:35:46.:35:49.

made about the strained double standards of the stop the War

:35:50.:35:53.

coalition run by the Socialist workers party, in hock with Seumas

:35:54.:36:00.

Milne the spokesman for Jeremy Corbyn, in relentlessly targeting

:36:01.:36:05.

America and the West. Which undoubtedly have made severe

:36:06.:36:12.

mistakes. Allowing Russia and President Putin to get away with

:36:13.:36:16.

these horrific atrocities where civilians are being very

:36:17.:36:20.

deliberately targeted, as every single hospital in Syria has been

:36:21.:36:23.

bombed. People are being killed every day by the regime. We do not

:36:24.:36:31.

have two months or three months to wait which is why I am pushing for

:36:32.:36:38.

more action now. People see the atrocities on their screens, they

:36:39.:36:42.

would like to do something but not what. But they must also think if

:36:43.:36:52.

dropping bombs was a solution in Syria, Syria would have been

:36:53.:37:01.

resolved a long while ago. Don't forget the US is already bombing in

:37:02.:37:07.

Syria with the UK and others, targeting Isil. Is rushed -- is

:37:08.:37:18.

Russia bombing Isil? No. The real challenge for the Russians if

:37:19.:37:21.

nothing happens is they will need some sort of ground offensive. I

:37:22.:37:28.

don't think it will go over very well having Christian troops inside

:37:29.:37:34.

on the ground. Sometimes the horse has just bolted. And it's been a

:37:35.:37:40.

consequence of American foreign policy, and to a lesser extent,

:37:41.:37:45.

European foreign policy as well, that a vacuum was created in the

:37:46.:37:50.

Syrian zone, Russia has filled it. In a way, despite the terrible

:37:51.:37:55.

pictures, the reality may be was that we lost our opportunity. Russia

:37:56.:37:59.

has filled that vacuum and there's not much we can do about it now.

:38:00.:38:04.

Russia has filled the vacuum but if Aleppo is depopulated, the Syrian

:38:05.:38:08.

regime doesn't have the strength to hold it so there will be another

:38:09.:38:11.

vacuum filled by more terrorist groups. If Russia is worried about

:38:12.:38:16.

Aleppo being a terrorist magnet now, guess what it'll be later. I'm happy

:38:17.:38:22.

that Boris and the MPs are putting this on the table. The more

:38:23.:38:26.

attention that is paid to Aleppo, the more policymakers are forced to

:38:27.:38:30.

discuss this and come up with some option. Whether it's a no-fly or no

:38:31.:38:34.

bomb, there's got to be something in between that can be done. We're

:38:35.:38:39.

putting it on the table, Rosa, but there seems to me to be no stomach

:38:40.:38:45.

in Downing Street or the White House to do more than look at options.

:38:46.:38:49.

That's quite right. It was very interesting the speed with which

:38:50.:38:53.

Downing Street pretty much slapped down Boris Johnson. His was perhaps

:38:54.:38:58.

an admirable statement. It was an emotional response, he obviously

:38:59.:39:03.

feels strongly about the refugee situation,

:39:04.:39:27.

about eight months old and in charge of ways. She's Brexit, she's got to

:39:28.:39:41.

live up to her rhetoric at the conference. She's got Heathrow

:39:42.:39:46.

expansion coming around the corner next week. She's a Middle East

:39:47.:39:51.

entanglements like a hole in the head. Not a shortage of sophistry.

:39:52.:40:02.

She's practical and hothouses of outfit. It seems to me this is the

:40:03.:40:07.

ultimate in point of Fifa mussels worldview. After Afghanistan and the

:40:08.:40:16.

Rock you get a swing away from interventionism and America

:40:17.:40:28.

withdraws. When America decides not to lead from the front or take a

:40:29.:40:33.

serious interest in the Middle East, the Russians fill a vacuum. All that

:40:34.:40:35.

Putin wants, dreadful though he John Woodcock, hadn't you and your

:40:36.:41:00.

party being complicit in helping to create the vacuum. We had drawn a

:41:01.:41:08.

red line under the Syrian chemical weapons and backed away several

:41:09.:41:12.

years ago as did President Obama. You voted for air strikes against

:41:13.:41:17.

so-called Islamic State in Syria last December but by then it was

:41:18.:41:22.

probably too late, the Russians were on the ground and increasingly

:41:23.:41:28.

ensconced in the region. I regretted deeply the decision not to take

:41:29.:41:35.

action once we had drawn a red line against that. But we cannot do

:41:36.:41:43.

foreign affairs and intervention on the basis of not wanting to have

:41:44.:41:46.

started from here and wishing things had gone differently. It has been

:41:47.:41:52.

made hugely more difficult by the intervention of Russia, but the

:41:53.:41:55.

consequences of standing back over the last years have been civilians

:41:56.:42:01.

dying in horrific numbers and a member of the permanent Security

:42:02.:42:06.

Council not simply being too careless in the way it has been

:42:07.:42:11.

bombing but deliberately targeting civilians in an open war crimes of

:42:12.:42:16.

the whole of the rest of the international community to see, on a

:42:17.:42:21.

daily basis, while we do nothing. Of course government is difficult and

:42:22.:42:23.

the Prime Minister has a lot of things on her to-do list. But I

:42:24.:42:32.

think the world cannot really afford to pay a heavy price if we don't act

:42:33.:42:36.

now to put President Putin back into the sense of needing to act within

:42:37.:42:41.

the international framework which the UN sets out rather than this

:42:42.:42:44.

rogue state which is appearing to be now. At times heart-rending issues.

:42:45.:42:53.

I am grateful to you for joining us today and going through them with

:42:54.:42:54.

us. Now, Theresa May wants to lift

:42:55.:42:54.

the ban on new grammar But the policy was not

:42:55.:42:57.

in the Conservative manifesto They did say they were prepared to

:42:58.:43:04.

expand existing grammar schools. So what peers think

:43:05.:43:12.

matters and yesterday There is a diversity

:43:13.:43:14.

of education in this country And no one's going to have a grammar

:43:15.:43:22.

school forced upon them We all should believe in choice

:43:23.:43:36.

and nor should any of us seek to deprive others of what we

:43:37.:43:42.

ourselves have benefited from. It was a German Chancellor who once

:43:43.:43:47.

said the problem with some on the political right

:43:48.:43:49.

is that they promise to the many what they know they will only be

:43:50.:43:52.

able to deliver to the few. If one is imposed into an area,

:43:53.:43:55.

or a transfer takes place to make an existing school selective,

:43:56.:44:00.

the parents, the children who would have expected

:44:01.:44:02.

to go to that school, who would have had expectation

:44:03.:44:07.

of high-quality education for themselves or their child,

:44:08.:44:12.

will find themselves excluded It's morally wrong, it's

:44:13.:44:14.

philosophically wrong, it's practically impossible to implement,

:44:15.:44:20.

and I do pray that the government will think again and place emphasis

:44:21.:44:22.

on raising standards for all, The very notion that

:44:23.:44:26.

by reintroducing selection, the people that this policy

:44:27.:44:35.

is intended to attract will suddenly find their children -

:44:36.:44:40.

let's say the traditional white working-class - would find

:44:41.:44:43.

their children surging into new and better grammar schools

:44:44.:44:47.

is a fantasy. What will actually happen,

:44:48.:44:50.

and I really admire and salute this, is that migrant and first-generation

:44:51.:44:56.

kids from Asia - we know already the highest performing children

:44:57.:45:00.

in Britain are Bangladeshi girls - from Asia and Eastern Europe,

:45:01.:45:03.

will sweep into those But the small problem

:45:04.:45:08.

that the disgruntled and now a disconnected white working class

:45:09.:45:14.

who believed they were going to get I can think of no other tinderbox

:45:15.:45:17.

that you could strike on the hard-pressed and already

:45:18.:45:24.

divided communities. Now there is a body of evidence

:45:25.:45:27.

which shows that teaching pupils in mixed ability settings does

:45:28.:45:32.

indeed lift the attainment of those However, the corollary is that those

:45:33.:45:35.

who would have achieved the very The most able are having

:45:36.:45:42.

their wings clipped. The reasons for inequality

:45:43.:45:50.

in selective settings are many - poorer teachers in charge

:45:51.:45:52.

of less able classes, a lack of confidence,

:45:53.:45:54.

sometimes, in less able children, and a lack of positive

:45:55.:45:57.

peer group role models. But rather than throwing the baby

:45:58.:46:02.

out with the bath water and saying that all selection by

:46:03.:46:05.

ability is always bad, perhaps we should mitigate

:46:06.:46:07.

the impact and to look as you said, so that

:46:08.:46:09.

our most able can fly. We're joined now by the Labour

:46:10.:46:19.

peer Michael Cashman, Welcome back to the programme. Are

:46:20.:46:32.

you against any kind of selection by ability or aptitude? Not at all. My

:46:33.:46:37.

biggest problem is that there is an age picked, at the moment it is

:46:38.:46:43.

11-13, and I don't believe everyone develops at the same time and

:46:44.:46:49.

therefore selection at an imposed age actually mitigates against a

:46:50.:46:55.

majority of children and as I said in a debate I want to make sure the

:46:56.:46:59.

educational service serves the needs of every child throughout their

:47:00.:47:04.

learning years and more importantly, especially with my experience beyond

:47:05.:47:09.

your schooling years, recognise that we have unique potentials that can

:47:10.:47:13.

be developed at different times. The old Grammar school system had the 11

:47:14.:47:17.

plus will stop it was a brutal watershed. I know I suffered because

:47:18.:47:23.

of it. You have not suffered too badly, you are in the House of

:47:24.:47:28.

Lords. I did, because it has an incredible impact. You have overcome

:47:29.:47:34.

it. I overcame it because. You have a CBE. You are a famous actor! I was

:47:35.:47:44.

lucky, a drama teacher saw in this rebel at the secondary modern where

:47:45.:47:49.

I did not feel I fitted, or belonged, he spotted something and

:47:50.:47:53.

because my parents got into debt and I hack to work as a child actor, I

:47:54.:47:57.

went to a stage school that developed my talent and it was only

:47:58.:48:03.

when I was 25 when I wanted to do O-levels and A-levels, I thought I

:48:04.:48:06.

could actually do it. I don't want that to happen to another child. You

:48:07.:48:10.

were selected on the basis of ability? On the basis of talent by a

:48:11.:48:18.

talent scout. My point is, we develop at different ages. Which

:48:19.:48:23.

brings me back to the question I was going to ask you. I began by saying

:48:24.:48:28.

the old grammar school secondary modern system had a brutal watershed

:48:29.:48:33.

at 11 and there were sometimes when you could get back in but by and

:48:34.:48:37.

large that was it, it decided your future education. What if there was

:48:38.:48:45.

a more flexible selective system, that there was not an 11 plus, it

:48:46.:48:51.

was later, and there were multiple opportunities and a variety of

:48:52.:48:56.

schools for aptitudes and abilities that took that into account? Of

:48:57.:49:00.

course I would look at that and will commit but I rely on experts. So

:49:01.:49:08.

Michael Walsh, the chief inspector of education, said increasing

:49:09.:49:13.

academic selections would be a profoundly retrograde step. The

:49:14.:49:18.

institute of education, the national association of school and College

:49:19.:49:22.

leaders, when I read the library briefing from the House of Lords, it

:49:23.:49:28.

is clear the consensus is this does not help social mobility and does

:49:29.:49:32.

not improve school performance overall. Iain Martin, you take a big

:49:33.:49:37.

interest in this. I think you are right about the sharp division at 11

:49:38.:49:42.

and the government has got itself into a mess partly because of the

:49:43.:49:45.

way the story leaked. It was supposed to be the big announcement

:49:46.:49:49.

at conference but it leaked and it is presented that they want a return

:49:50.:49:55.

to the 11 plus and the secondary modern system, which was unfair and

:49:56.:50:00.

divisive, but working back, they are trying to get to somewhere

:50:01.:50:04.

interesting which is if you look at university technical colleges that

:50:05.:50:07.

Ken Baker and others have been behind, there are more than 50 now.

:50:08.:50:15.

There are 39 working towards 50. They take kids at 13-14, so the

:50:16.:50:24.

point is the division is not sharp at 11. Out of that it would be

:50:25.:50:28.

interesting to see if the government as well as creating technical

:50:29.:50:33.

schools, could you create liberal arts colleges? Schools in poor areas

:50:34.:50:42.

for very bright kids. There is a performing... I was meaning

:50:43.:50:46.

humanities. How can we ensure in a country in which we have a delete

:50:47.:50:52.

that is so stratified? How can we ensure it? In the debate, who spoke

:50:53.:50:59.

who did not go to a grammar school? Three. How can we ensure bright kids

:51:00.:51:04.

from poor areas get an elite education of the kind many members

:51:05.:51:13.

of the Cabinet had? For me it is simple. Choice. Patrick Cormack used

:51:14.:51:19.

the word choice. Often we get into a stream and let's take me as an

:51:20.:51:23.

example. A young actor I got into the arts and suddenly decided I

:51:24.:51:28.

wanted to study medicine. There was no method by which at the age of

:51:29.:51:32.

205I could get A-levels and A-levels to do that, therefore I want choice

:51:33.:51:38.

either when someone goes to a specialist college. A lifetime

:51:39.:51:43.

choice? They change their mind. One's talent and potential develops

:51:44.:51:47.

according to our experience of the world. If you looked at our school

:51:48.:51:53.

system and you would find many weaknesses, and a huge diversity of

:51:54.:52:03.

performance between various types of school, but if you looked from the

:52:04.:52:05.

outside, rather than saying more grammar schools would be a priority,

:52:06.:52:08.

you may want to say they should be more, but would it be a priority

:52:09.:52:13.

that the glaring thing we lack is a wide range of high-quality

:52:14.:52:19.

technology schools? I think what most parents want is just a really

:52:20.:52:23.

good school that is not worse than the school that someone else is

:52:24.:52:28.

going to. I went to what Alastair Campbell called a bog-standard

:52:29.:52:33.

comprehensive and I did OK. Now I am a parent and always believed in

:52:34.:52:37.

comprehensive education. Now as a parent, you begin to think, I don't

:52:38.:52:42.

know whether I want to send my little treasure to the comprehensive

:52:43.:52:45.

when others are going to the grammar school. I think there needs to be,

:52:46.:52:52.

for a one nation Conservative, Theresa May is introducing a system

:52:53.:52:57.

which is about differences and degradation, and even having the

:52:58.:53:00.

humanities College, technical College, that is fine if you live in

:53:01.:53:05.

a concentrated urban area where you can go to different schools for

:53:06.:53:10.

different aptitudes, but in a rural area, even a suburb, you want the

:53:11.:53:15.

school up the road to be good and cater to all pupils. The logic of

:53:16.:53:23.

the Tony Blair, Lord Adonis, Michael Gove reforms needs to be followed

:53:24.:53:27.

through and unwonted selection although I think everyone involved

:53:28.:53:32.

went to selective schools. The key is variety. The too long we have had

:53:33.:53:38.

a top-down national model. Let 1000 flowers bloom, try different

:53:39.:53:43.

schools, introduce some selection. There will be some new full-scale

:53:44.:53:46.

grammar schools where people want it but we have to get away from the

:53:47.:53:51.

idea of enforcing one rigid national model. Michael, the final word. This

:53:52.:53:57.

is hopefully what the House of Lords will ask the government to do dash

:53:58.:54:01.

to think again and think of any proposals. There isn't a manifesto

:54:02.:54:07.

commitment. There is not even widespread support on the government

:54:08.:54:11.

benches but hopefully the debate yesterday which Baroness Andrews

:54:12.:54:15.

managed to get will say to the government, if you proceed down this

:54:16.:54:21.

route, it will be very difficult. Think differently, think more

:54:22.:54:25.

widely, think imaginatively. And then there might be a proposal that

:54:26.:54:29.

would emerge that would have the support of the Lord's? I hope so

:54:30.:54:33.

because the Lord's works on the basis of achieving compromise from

:54:34.:54:38.

all parties. It is like my experience of the 15 years in the

:54:39.:54:42.

European Parliament. You have to work with others to achieve the best

:54:43.:54:47.

and that is what I hoped for. Michael Cashman, good to see you

:54:48.:54:48.

again. Time now to see what else has been

:54:49.:54:49.

happening in the world of politics Here's Ellie with the

:54:50.:54:52.

week in 60 seconds. With early voting already underway

:54:53.:54:56.

in the US, Donald Trump's presidential campaign faltered

:54:57.:54:58.

after numerous allegations about his inappropriate

:54:59.:55:01.

behaviour towards women. One suggesting he was

:55:02.:55:06.

like "an octopus." Debating the war in Syria,

:55:07.:55:09.

Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson made this rather

:55:10.:55:11.

undiplomatic suggestion... I'd certainly like to see

:55:12.:55:12.

demonstrations outside But not wanting to be outdone,

:55:13.:55:14.

Jeremy Corbyn's top aide Seumas Milne later suggested that

:55:15.:55:21.

people should protest outside the American Embassy

:55:22.:55:24.

in London instead. Iain Duncan Smith apologised

:55:25.:55:27.

to Labour's shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer,

:55:28.:55:31.

a QC no less, after calling him It was clumsy, it was not meant

:55:32.:55:33.

about him, it was And I don't doubt for one

:55:34.:55:37.

moment his capabilities as a lawyer. Boris Johnson, yes him again,

:55:38.:55:41.

told the Foreign Affairs Select You seem to think the single

:55:42.:55:44.

market is sort of like To paraphrase, it was Groucho

:55:45.:55:48.

himself who once said he'd never be a member of any club would have him

:55:49.:55:56.

as a member, whatever that means. month to go until the US election,

:55:57.:56:10.

November the 8th. Results will be live on BBC One. And BBC World and

:56:11.:56:18.

BBC News. It looks like the past ten days have been a watershed in a

:56:19.:56:22.

campaign. It was pretty nip and tuck but Mrs Clinton seems to be pulling

:56:23.:56:27.

away but not dramatically. Many are surprised she has not pulled away by

:56:28.:56:31.

morbid it is clearly hers to lose? I spend a lot of time in the States

:56:32.:56:36.

and Hillary Clinton is surprisingly unpopular. I do not think people

:56:37.:56:41.

here quite realise. Some try to make an equivalence between her and

:56:42.:56:44.

Donald Trump and her challenge will be to get people to turn out.

:56:45.:56:51.

Probably Donald Trump has been so unappealing people will do that, but

:56:52.:56:54.

it is not a done deal. She needs young people to come out and a

:56:55.:56:58.

massive mobilisation of the black and Hispanic vote. The Republican

:56:59.:57:04.

leadership, which a lot of it has disowned Mr Trump. Their worry is

:57:05.:57:08.

they have written off the White House in their minds, they are

:57:09.:57:12.

trying to hold onto the Senate. This is such a crazy scramble. I spent a

:57:13.:57:20.

lot of time in the US in the past year and the Republican

:57:21.:57:22.

establishment, the part of the establishment that did not do enough

:57:23.:57:26.

to stop him, is now pretty much getting what it deserves. You are

:57:27.:57:33.

right, the polls might be wrong, but the Clinton campaign have played the

:57:34.:57:37.

last few weeks absolutely brilliantly. He walked into it. They

:57:38.:57:42.

suckered him in that first debate and he was ranting and being rude to

:57:43.:57:48.

women, dropped the famous tape, force him to deny that he had ever

:57:49.:57:55.

done this and them produce via the media... It had been a stuttering

:57:56.:58:03.

campaign until then. We will see if you can get his campaign together

:58:04.:58:07.

now. There is all to play for. Before we go, the answer to our

:58:08.:58:09.

quiz. Who is going to be the new women's

:58:10.:58:10.

champion for the UN? I do not know. I will guess wonder

:58:11.:58:24.

woman. Wonder woman. You are both right. She does not even exist!

:58:25.:58:31.

Really? Apparently it is a studio tie-up that makes it, anyway. There

:58:32.:58:34.

you go. The one o'clock news is starting

:58:35.:58:34.

over on BBC One now. I'll be back on Sunday

:58:35.:58:39.

with the Sunday Politics, We will look at airport expansion

:58:40.:58:51.

and inevitably the latest on Brexit. Join me at 11am, BBC One, Sunday

:58:52.:58:53.

morning. ..and builds worlds,

:58:54.:59:11.

not just characters.

:59:12.:59:15.

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