14/10/2016 Daily Politics


14/10/2016

Andrew Neil is joined by journalists Rosa Prince and Iain Martin to discuss the government's approach to the conflict in Syria and the debate over grammar schools.


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LineFromTo

Afternoon, folks, and welcome to the Daily Politics.

:00:36.:00:41.

The Foreign Secretary has called for more "kinetic" action to stop

:00:42.:00:43.

But do increasing tensions between Russia and the West mean

:00:44.:00:49.

an end to the bloodshed is further away than ever?

:00:50.:00:52.

The President of the European Council, Donald Tusk,

:00:53.:00:57.

says the UK can't have its cake and eat it.

:00:58.:01:00.

Is he right that the only alternative to hard

:01:01.:01:02.

Theresa May would like to end the ban on new selective

:01:03.:01:08.

But - even if she gets them through the Commons -

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could her plans be scuppered in the Lords?

:01:13.:01:16.

Nicola Sturgeon says that if she doesn't like the look

:01:17.:01:19.

of Theresa May's Brexit deal, she'll call a second

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So which union do delegates at the SNP conference prefer -

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The fact I voted Brexit I would still vote the EU over the UK. You

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voted to leave? You are in the SNP. I thought they did not exist!

:01:47.:01:49.

All that in the next hour, and who better to react to those

:01:50.:01:52.

stories than the editor of the website

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And the journalist Rosa Prince, whose biography of Theresa May

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And we'll start with Theresa May because she's meeting a gaggle,

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or whatever the collective term is, of British Ambassadors

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Britain in the other EU member states.

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for strong relations with our European partners to pave

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the way for smooth Brexit negotiations.

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Theresa May herself has been on a tour of European capitals this

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week where she emphasised that the decision to leave

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the EU did not mean the UK retreating into isolationism.

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Last night the President of the European Council,

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that's the body that represents heads of government of the EU,

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warned that Britain could not have its cake and eat it.

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The brutal truth is that Brexit will be a loss for all of us.

:02:55.:02:58.

There will be no cakes on the table for anyone.

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If you ask me if there is any alternative to this bad scenario,

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I would like to tell you that yes, there is.

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And I think it is useless to speculate about soft Brexit,

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because of all the reasons I've mentioned.

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This would be purely theoretical speculation.

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In my opinion, the only real alternative to a hard

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That was Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council. Has he cuts

:03:29.:03:45.

through a lot of nonsense spoken in this country? It is quite clear, if

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we are not going to be in the single market as a member, which is the

:03:51.:03:54.

implication of everything the government tells us, then it is what

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we are calling a hard Brexit, we are out the single market? I so. I am

:04:02.:04:07.

not sure where the idea came from it could be any other way. One thing

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that came through loud and clear during the referendum was people

:04:13.:04:16.

were unhappy about levels of immigration and migration from the

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EU, which means no freedom of movement and no membership of the

:04:22.:04:24.

single market. There were food metaphors flying around, and I think

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that is the nub of the issue. What the government will have to try to

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do is somehow forge, perhaps that is why ambassadors are there, forge

:04:35.:04:39.

relationships separately with these countries. George Osborne, David

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Cameron made it clear, saying during the referendum campaign that a vote

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to leave is a vote to leave the single market. Why is this still an

:04:50.:04:55.

issue? I disagree slightly on the Donald Tusk speech. To me it is

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standard diplomacy and business negotiation. He is laying out a hard

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position on behalf of the government 's who will decide, rather than the

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commission and European Parliament. That is how negotiations work. I

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think you are right, Andrew, but there are various ways to leave it

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and there is the possibility of a soft -ish Brexit, a compromise on

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quotas and immigration, some copper wires on the City of London, is

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certainly feasible. We are focused on the British angle but the biggest

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obstacle is European politics, the 27 are not speaking as one, despite

:05:40.:05:44.

what Donald Tusk indicated. Europe is extremely fragile. You look at

:05:45.:05:51.

how the Hungarians are attempting to bully the Germans. The French

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elections coming up, Austria, the Italian banks, Deutsche Bank. Donald

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Tusk is saying what he has to say, it is the beginning of a

:06:01.:06:04.

negotiation, but I think hopefully there is at some point room for

:06:05.:06:13.

compromise. When Mrs May trigger 's Article 50 to begin the Brexit

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process sometime in the first quarter of next year, for all the

:06:17.:06:21.

reasons he has given, German and French elections, the turmoil, not

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much will happen until we see the new face of Europe. One asked how

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they could do negotiations until they know who they are negotiating

:06:31.:06:35.

with. Francois Hollande might not be there. Angela Merkel could be the

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walking wounded after an election. This one, I think that is right. We

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can have a clearer picture in March, I think that is a fallacy. It will

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take a couple of years at the very least. There is a tendency in

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debilitating to see every story through the prism of Brexit, or from

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the agenda of the Remain and Leave people. The Marmite story would not

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have been touched had it not been for Brexit. People decided to pursue

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it for their own agenda. It is difficult and I speak as someone who

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is a moderate lever. It applies on both sides, people leap on stories

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that appear to confirm the position they were attached to four months

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ago. The media is complicit, keeping on looking for a Brexit angle.

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Unilever and Tesco constantly have negotiations which we never cover

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but because there might be a Brexit angle, suddenly it is leading every

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newscast and is on the front page of every paper. It took us a while to

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catch up that Unilever had also asked, all told the Irish

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supermarkets, it was putting up prices there and the last time I

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looked island is not leaving and uses the euro. The head of PR for

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Tesco deserves a bonus! It applies to the pound and the way the

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fluctuations of the pound are reported. Of course there are

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downsides but there are upsides with a tourist boom under way in the UK

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and exports should flourish. Prices will rise, there is no doubt about

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that, but we have a long way to go. I am glad we have you here today.

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Let's have a quits. The question for today

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is all about the United Nations, which yesterday appointed

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Antonio Guterres as its At the end of the show we'll

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see if Rosa and Iain Now, yesterday, Nicola Sturgeon

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surprised the SNP conference in Glasgow by announcing right

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from its start that she would next week publish a consultation

:09:17.:09:19.

on a bill for a second independence She has said she wants Theresa May

:09:20.:09:22.

to negotiate a Brexit deal that would enable Scotland to remain

:09:23.:09:26.

in the single market after the UK leaves the EU,

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and Scotland would have the right to hold a second independence

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referendum if that isn't achieved. Here's what she had to say

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on Breakfast this morning. I think the UK right now

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is potentially about to take a step off the edge of a cliff by coming

:09:44.:09:46.

out of the single market, and I don't want that

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to happen to Scotland. I actually don't want that

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to happen to the UK. I respect the fact that England

:09:53.:09:55.

and Wales voted to leave the EU, but I don't think the Prime Minister

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has a mandate to take the UK out I want to explore every option

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to protect Scotland's vital economic interests,

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and I set out very clearly yesterday how I will try to do that,

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and try to do that in discussion But ultimately, if the Prime

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Minister and the UK Government doesn't listen, if they are intent

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on ignoring Scotland's voice, then I think Scotland should

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have the option to consider again So that's what the first Minister

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thinks - but what about her party? Our Adam's been out with his balls

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in Glasgow to find out which Union Well, let's test the mood

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of SNP activists here in Glasgow with this question -

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which union do you prefer, Well, some of the rules I don't

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like, some of the rules I Its openness and inclusiveness,

:10:46.:10:57.

definitely compared to the UK we are

:10:58.:11:04.

seeing at present. Has the UK got anything

:11:05.:11:06.

good going for it? I just feel that the way the EU

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is run, with everybody being equal. You know, different countries

:11:11.:11:18.

all coming together. Do you think Malta has

:11:19.:11:20.

as much power as Germany? No, I don't mean that,

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I think it's the outlook. Despite the fact I voted Brexit,

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I'd still pick the EU over the UK. Grab a ball, the Daily

:11:31.:11:45.

Politics, grab a ball. I think it's time, sooner rather

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than later, that we get When would you ideally

:12:11.:12:13.

like to have the next referendum? Has Nicola Sturgeon got the power

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to have another referendum? I think it's Westminster has

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the power. Scotland's voice is being heard,

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and will continue to do so. And the vessel at the moment

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is Nicola Sturgeon. She is the vessel for

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the people of Scotland. Which union do

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Because I am a European citizen, and I don't want my human rights

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"I'm with Nicola", well, you're with Nicola.

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He did actually, and it was a surprise this morning.

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"The Scottish lion has roared, Alex Salmond, 8th of May 2015."

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Are you proud to have Alex Salmond on your chest?

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What do you think about the five people that have put balls in there?

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I don't know who they are, are they journalists?

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No, they were people at the conference, apart from one

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guy who was just walking through the conference venue.

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It's interesting, and they are voices we should listen

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to as we take discussions forward in the future.

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You're not going to hunt them down and kick them out?

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Absolutely not, we're not that kind of party.

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Which union do you prefer, the UK or the EU?

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Well, it doesn't get much more conclusive than that.

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It would be even more so if it wasn't for the impostor just walking

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through the conference centre, who put that one in.

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We're joined now by the SNP's Mike Russell, who is

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the Scottish Minister for UK Negotiations on Scotland's

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If as Britain heads for the door it is clear that that will involve no

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longer having membership of the single market, will that trigger an

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independence referendum in Scotland? Well, I think Nicola was clear. We

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are at the stage of looking at the options that we have. One of those

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options is independence, is right to prepare for those options, and

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that's what we are starting to do. My job is to discuss those options

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with those who are formulating them, including a la cancelled advisers to

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negotiate on those options. Independence is of course an option.

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Just to be clear, is membership of the single market a red line? If it

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is clear in coming out the United Kingdom will not be a member, it

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will have access but not have membership of the single market, you

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would want a second referendum? Membership of the single market is

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extremely important to us. Free movement of labour is important. 9%

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of our doctors, 12% of our care staff come from the EU. It is of

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great importance. There are no negotiations yet with the UK

:15:52.:15:55.

Government that had been slow in starting. There aren't red

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would you want a referendum before Britain left the EQ or would you

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wait until afterwards? We haven't even started those discussions yet.

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It would be premature of me to talk about timing. There is opinion and

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advice on both sides of that. You are always well read in these

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matters. The important stage we are in is to consider the options to

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negotiate with the UK Government. They've been slow on that and some

:16:42.:16:45.

of the noises are not at all helpful. To have those negotiations

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and to come to the conclusion. The Scottish Parliament asked the

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Scottish Government to do that. We are fulfilling that mandate. We also

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have a mandate from the Scottish people. 62% voted not to leave.

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That's a very important issue in this nation. They did indeed but

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there is no polling to suggest their demand for another referendum has

:17:11.:17:13.

got any higher despite they didn't get their way in the Brexit

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referendum. You only had a referendum a couple of years ago and

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here you are talking about another one because you did that time round.

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There has been a material change in the circumstances and that is a

:17:51.:17:56.

phrase we used in our manifesto. There has been a material change. We

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were promised in the referendum voting no would mean staying in the

:18:02.:18:07.

EU. It did not turn out that way. We have an opportunity to look at our

:18:08.:18:10.

national future and look at all the options. It may be a deal-breaker,

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it may be a watershed event for you and those behind you in the SNP but

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I struggle to find evidence it is a watershed event for people in

:18:23.:18:27.

Scotland. The latest polling is 47% of people do not want a second

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referendum as against 38% to do. Again, a clear majority. A clear

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lead of people who don't want one. You do. You are not necessarily in

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tune with the Scottish people on this. I would advise you to the cook

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the detail of the poll more carefully. Look at the question

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asked about hard Brexit. What we are seeing from the UK Government. In

:18:54.:18:59.

those circumstances people want a second referendum. We are seeing the

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hardest of Brexits and we are seeing the reaction from Brussels. Which is

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if that is what the UK Government say they want to Donald Tusk is

:19:09.:19:12.

saying you can have it. We are in difficult times and we need to apply

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rationality which is looking we consider the options, decide on the

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options and move forward. That is what we are going to do and is what

:19:24.:19:29.

we are engaged on. It is the default position. You harp on about a

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referendum until you win one. I don't harp on about anything. We

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have known each other for years and we have a rational conversation. The

:19:41.:19:45.

circumstances in Scotland require us to consider that question again as

:19:46.:19:50.

part of a range of options. That is what Nicholas said, that is what I

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said today, that is what the party is saying. We will look at the

:19:55.:19:58.

options, come to a conclusion, and we should be ready for all options,

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including independence. You will be familiar with the fact that the

:20:05.:20:12.

Quebec generational obsession with independence cost the Quebec economy

:20:13.:20:18.

dear. It was an advantage to Toronto and a loss to Montreal during these

:20:19.:20:23.

years, because of the constitutional issue that created uncertainty. Do

:20:24.:20:26.

you not fear the same for the Scottish economy?

:20:27.:20:50.

The plunge in the pound to its lowest level, the way in which

:20:51.:20:57.

businesses are looking at investing elsewhere, the warning from the

:20:58.:21:01.

Japanese government, as a result of a Tory obsession with Europe that is

:21:02.:21:05.

costing us dear. The options we consider will have to be the options

:21:06.:21:09.

that get us out of that position and that includes independence. Your

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country has a massive fiscal deficit and the oil industry a key part of

:21:18.:21:23.

the economy is in decline and the financial services, the second part

:21:24.:21:27.

of your economy are seriously depleted and your girth rate is

:21:28.:21:32.

lacklustre. Should you concentrate on these -- growth rate. Should you

:21:33.:21:36.

concentrate on these issues that matter to Scottish people rather

:21:37.:21:39.

than the referendum. We should be concentrating on the way in which we

:21:40.:21:45.

improve our economy, we improve our democracy and social cohesion. The

:21:46.:21:50.

options we are looking at our options

:21:51.:22:00.

we are considering under Brexit. The decline in Scotland would become

:22:01.:22:04.

much worse, precipitous, would we to go along with what the Tories want

:22:05.:22:06.

with Brexit. That is a disaster. You talk about the financial sector,

:22:07.:22:09.

thousands of jobs would be lost with no single market. That is the

:22:10.:22:13.

reality of where the union has taken Scotland and I think the people of

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Scotland will want to look at options. My job is to consider the

:22:17.:22:22.

options and negotiate on them. There is no decision about which option is

:22:23.:22:26.

needed but the portrait you paint a Scotland is not only inaccurate now,

:22:27.:22:31.

but it could become true if Brexit has its way. I am not sure anything

:22:32.:22:37.

I said is factually inaccurate. John Swinney, a collie, said it would be

:22:38.:22:44.

the intention, even in a second independence referendum, with

:22:45.:22:47.

England out of the EU but Scotland in, that you would want to use the

:22:48.:22:53.

pound sterling. By what stretch of the imagination would you think

:22:54.:22:59.

Brussels would allow you to join the EU and use a currency of a country

:23:00.:23:04.

not in the EU? It would be a kindness to use the pound given its

:23:05.:23:09.

lack of strength at the moment. We might be doing the rest of the UK a

:23:10.:23:13.

favour. Those negotiations for another time. The present situation

:23:14.:23:18.

is looking for options we had and taking them forward. That is what we

:23:19.:23:21.

are determined to do and that is what we are going to do. Thanks for

:23:22.:23:31.

joining us. Iain Martin, to what extent is this talk of a second

:23:32.:23:35.

referendum, and she came right onto the stage, at the start of the

:23:36.:23:39.

conference, she even surprised her own delegates by bringing it up so

:23:40.:23:45.

quickly, but to what extent is this positioning for a second referendum

:23:46.:23:49.

or party management? It is a bit of both but I think it should be taken

:23:50.:23:56.

seriously. I think she will take that option if the polls are aligned

:23:57.:24:02.

and if Brexit goes badly and if for example the UK was in recession. The

:24:03.:24:11.

biggest advantage the SNP have and it is shown by the scale of their

:24:12.:24:14.

conference, is this incredible organisation and this amazing

:24:15.:24:18.

membership. Activists on the ground, digital operation. The question for

:24:19.:24:22.

Unionists, who just about got away with it last time, better together,

:24:23.:24:26.

the old Labour generation that helped to win the referendum last

:24:27.:24:32.

time are gone. Who will be the force is arguing for the union? Certainly

:24:33.:24:37.

Ruth Davidson. Will it be Theresa May, is that a plus? I think they

:24:38.:24:43.

are setting it up so that if circumstances align, she will go for

:24:44.:24:49.

it. She says she is keeping her options open. In some ways the bar

:24:50.:24:56.

for independence is higher than in 2014. It is possible Scotland could

:24:57.:25:01.

vote for independence, or indeed it will probably have to vote for

:25:02.:25:04.

independence without knowing if it is going to be allowed to join the

:25:05.:25:11.

EU, and given the size of the deficit and the currency, I find it

:25:12.:25:15.

inconceivable Brussels would allow a member country joining to use the

:25:16.:25:20.

pound. It would almost certainly have to go for the euro. If Scotland

:25:21.:25:25.

found itself out of the UK and then out of the EU. You spoke about

:25:26.:25:30.

newspapers tying everything onto Brexit, I think the SNP is guilty of

:25:31.:25:35.

that, trying to say now is the time for another referendum because of

:25:36.:25:41.

Brexit. I can see the logic but it seems a stretch. The Scottish people

:25:42.:25:45.

have referendum fatigue, it does not seem to be the time while everything

:25:46.:25:50.

is in the air for it to happen. I kind of see the SNP leadership would

:25:51.:25:58.

not want it, with the polls. The SNP has a powerful point when they say

:25:59.:26:06.

in the last Scottish referendum, the Unionists, it was argued that

:26:07.:26:09.

Scotland could seamlessly joined the EU. The union said the only sure way

:26:10.:26:14.

of Scotland remaining a member of the EU was to stay in the UK. How

:26:15.:26:21.

did that work out? It did not work out. A load of nonsense.

:26:22.:26:32.

It is a question to which no one can know the answer. The lesson they

:26:33.:26:36.

draw from the EU referendum is people are prepared to take an

:26:37.:26:41.

economic gamble for self-government taking back control. They studied

:26:42.:26:45.

the referendum carefully. Their gamble is Project Fear, or something

:26:46.:26:51.

like it, or a warning about the size of the deficit, the oil industry,

:26:52.:26:56.

all of that somehow will not apply if there is a second referendum. And

:26:57.:27:01.

as the SNP point out they are starting from a higher base with the

:27:02.:27:07.

activist network. And they are closer in the polls, although they

:27:08.:27:12.

are behind, closer to when the first referendum started.

:27:13.:27:14.

Now, Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has called a meeting with US

:27:15.:27:17.

Secretary of State John Kerry and other foreign ministers

:27:18.:27:19.

this weekend to consider a new way forward to resolve

:27:20.:27:21.

But with tensions rising between Russia and the United States

:27:22.:27:25.

following an attack on a UN aid convoy in Aleppo last month,

:27:26.:27:29.

Last night, the new UN Secretary-General called

:27:30.:27:35.

on the international community to broker a solution to a conflict

:27:36.:27:38.

that has already claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.

:27:39.:27:44.

Antonio Guterres said ending the conflict in Syria

:27:45.:27:46.

He was one of many world leaders who spoke out on the ongoing

:27:47.:27:54.

On Monday, France's President Hollande suggested Russian officials

:27:55.:28:00.

could face war crimes charges over the ongoing bombardment of Aleppo.

:28:01.:28:09.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin dismissed the suggestions,

:28:10.:28:12.

telling French media the accusations were rhetoric

:28:13.:28:14.

that did not take into account the realities in Syria.

:28:15.:28:16.

Meanwhile, Boris Johnson said Russia was in danger of becoming a pariah

:28:17.:28:19.

nation, during an emergency debate held in Parliament on Tuesday.

:28:20.:28:25.

The Foreign Secretary also called for demonstrations outside

:28:26.:28:27.

Moscow hit back by accusing him of Russophobic hysteria,

:28:28.:28:36.

while Russian officials in London criticised his comments on Twitter.

:28:37.:28:41.

Some MPs have called for a no-fly zone over Aleppo,

:28:42.:28:46.

which would involve Western powers being prepared to destroy Russian

:28:47.:28:51.

and Syrian war planes and air defences.

:28:52.:28:53.

Others have urged for so-called no-bombing zones to create safe

:28:54.:28:58.

areas and protect civilians. Those military options seemed a step

:28:59.:29:01.

closer yesterday when Boris Johnson told MPs it was time to consider

:29:02.:29:08.

more "kinetic" action to stop Aleppo being "pulverised".

:29:09.:29:16.

You might puzzle over what kinetic means. Do not do that too much.

:29:17.:29:23.

Because within hours, his comments were played

:29:24.:29:25.

spokesman, who said, "There are no plans

:29:26.:29:28.

As mentioned, that statement from the Prime Minister's

:29:29.:29:31.

office was in response to Boris Johnson's comments

:29:32.:29:33.

to the Foreign Affairs Select Committee.

:29:34.:29:34.

Let's hear more of what he had to say.

:29:35.:29:36.

Most people, I think, are now changing their minds

:29:37.:29:41.

about this and thinking, we can't let this go on for ever,

:29:42.:29:45.

we can't just see Aleppo pulverised in this way, we have

:29:46.:29:47.

And I thought the mood of the House of Commons the other

:29:48.:29:51.

Whether that means we can get a coalition together for more

:29:52.:30:02.

kinetic action now, I cannot prophesy, but certainly

:30:03.:30:08.

what most people want to see is a new set of options.

:30:09.:30:12.

Here with me to discuss this further are Dr Karin von

:30:13.:30:15.

Hippel, Director-General of the Royal United

:30:16.:30:17.

Doctor, there is a lot of hand-wringing, a lot of something

:30:18.:30:33.

must be done. Are we any clearer what could be done? At this stage it

:30:34.:30:40.

is difficult. The only real option I think to get the Russians to change

:30:41.:30:45.

behaviour is using force in some capacity, whether it is a no-fly

:30:46.:30:50.

zone, no bombing zone, but both would require shooting down Russian

:30:51.:30:55.

jets and I'm not sure the Obama administration is ready to do that.

:30:56.:30:59.

At this stage in the American election cycle, looking at a

:31:00.:31:03.

president who has tried to withdraw his country from the Middle East,

:31:04.:31:10.

over the eight years in power, is it conceivable he would want to get

:31:11.:31:13.

dragged in in the final two months of his presidency? He has said many

:31:14.:31:18.

times force is not an option and that has put secretary Kerry in a

:31:19.:31:22.

bad position because he can only do so much finger wagging with the

:31:23.:31:26.

Russians with nothing in his back pocket. I do not think Obama will do

:31:27.:31:32.

anything. Potentially some sort of escalation after the results are in

:31:33.:31:37.

from the election because it is possible that any negative happening

:31:38.:31:40.

security wise would only benefit Donald Trump's candidacy. John

:31:41.:31:47.

Woodcock, if there is no stomach in the White House for a no-fly zone,

:31:48.:31:53.

or a no bombing zone, I'm not sure of the difference, but if there is

:31:54.:31:57.

no stomach for that, it is not going to happen? It is very difficult if

:31:58.:32:03.

the US does not want to be part of the coalition but there are options.

:32:04.:32:09.

Let me quickly say what I think is the difference between a no-fly zone

:32:10.:32:13.

and no bombing zone. I agreed with so much with what my colleague said

:32:14.:32:19.

just then. The no bombing zone option would not entail shooting

:32:20.:32:23.

down Russian planes. I understand why, for many, that would be an

:32:24.:32:28.

aggravation. How would you enforce it? What the Syrians suggest and I

:32:29.:32:34.

was in Istanbul last week, talking to the exiled opposition leadership,

:32:35.:32:41.

they are saying there would be a response for every time there was a

:32:42.:32:50.

strike by Russia or Syria deliberately on civilians. They

:32:51.:32:54.

would be a response from the coalition to target Assad's military

:32:55.:32:58.

infrastructure so we would not be shooting down planes in the air and

:32:59.:33:03.

we would not target Russia, we would target the regime of Assad,

:33:04.:33:08.

primarily using naval assets, missiles rather than the potential

:33:09.:33:13.

for getting involved in any dogfight over Syrian airspace. And what if

:33:14.:33:17.

the Russians decide to put Russian forces to protect this

:33:18.:33:25.

infrastructure? I don't think Russia is wanting a conflict with the west.

:33:26.:33:29.

It has nothing like the capacity to do that. Its economy is in very

:33:30.:33:37.

severe recession. There is a place for Russia as a constructive

:33:38.:33:42.

partner, but the need for us to step up the degree of firmness where we

:33:43.:33:49.

are putting military options on the table is because Vladimir Putin has

:33:50.:33:54.

sensed the weakness from the west from 2013, that vote, and before

:33:55.:33:59.

that. He cares nothing for the humanitarian consequences of what he

:34:00.:34:03.

is doing. He does not care about being a pariah state in the UN. He

:34:04.:34:08.

will push and push as long as he feels there is a weakness in the

:34:09.:34:12.

rest of the international community that will letting get away with it.

:34:13.:34:17.

Let me pin you down. There is a lot of something must be done rhetoric,

:34:18.:34:22.

but it is important to work out what it means. Supposing in the no

:34:23.:34:28.

bombing zone, the Russians put anti-missile batteries around the

:34:29.:34:30.

Syrian infrastructure that you might want to bomb and in the process of

:34:31.:34:35.

bombing you take out Russian antimissile batteries? What will

:34:36.:34:36.

happen? Russia will only end up being part

:34:37.:34:46.

of this confrontation if it makes itself. If it wants actively to be

:34:47.:34:52.

so. I do not think when push comes to shove, Russia wants to do that.

:34:53.:34:59.

You don't know, do you? Undoubtedly there will be a ramping up of the

:35:00.:35:04.

rhetoric from President Putin. The alternative has been to effectively

:35:05.:35:10.

to protest, to say Russia don't do this. But to do nothing while it

:35:11.:35:16.

does more and more, it has unilaterally invaded another

:35:17.:35:21.

European country, in the Ukraine... We know all that. There seems to be

:35:22.:35:27.

no public appetite. How many people would be outside the American

:35:28.:35:30.

embassy if it was the Americans dropping barrel bombs on Aleppo? The

:35:31.:35:36.

point that was made... Thousands, thousands. How many Labour

:35:37.:35:39.

colleagues have been outside the Russian Embassy, given that Russia

:35:40.:35:45.

has been complicit in barrel bombing? It was an important point

:35:46.:35:49.

made about the strained double standards of the stop the War

:35:50.:35:53.

coalition run by the Socialist workers party, in hock with Seumas

:35:54.:36:00.

Milne the spokesman for Jeremy Corbyn, in relentlessly targeting

:36:01.:36:05.

America and the West. Which undoubtedly have made severe

:36:06.:36:12.

mistakes. Allowing Russia and President Putin to get away with

:36:13.:36:16.

these horrific atrocities where civilians are being very

:36:17.:36:20.

deliberately targeted, as every single hospital in Syria has been

:36:21.:36:23.

bombed. People are being killed every day by the regime. We do not

:36:24.:36:31.

have two months or three months to wait which is why I am pushing for

:36:32.:36:38.

more action now. People see the atrocities on their screens, they

:36:39.:36:42.

would like to do something but not what. But they must also think if

:36:43.:36:52.

dropping bombs was a solution in Syria, Syria would have been

:36:53.:37:01.

resolved a long while ago. Don't forget the US is already bombing in

:37:02.:37:07.

Syria with the UK and others, targeting Isil. Is rushed -- is

:37:08.:37:18.

Russia bombing Isil? No. The real challenge for the Russians if

:37:19.:37:21.

nothing happens is they will need some sort of ground offensive. I

:37:22.:37:28.

don't think it will go over very well having Christian troops inside

:37:29.:37:34.

on the ground. Sometimes the horse has just bolted. And it's been a

:37:35.:37:40.

consequence of American foreign policy, and to a lesser extent,

:37:41.:37:45.

European foreign policy as well, that a vacuum was created in the

:37:46.:37:50.

Syrian zone, Russia has filled it. In a way, despite the terrible

:37:51.:37:55.

pictures, the reality may be was that we lost our opportunity. Russia

:37:56.:37:59.

has filled that vacuum and there's not much we can do about it now.

:38:00.:38:04.

Russia has filled the vacuum but if Aleppo is depopulated, the Syrian

:38:05.:38:08.

regime doesn't have the strength to hold it so there will be another

:38:09.:38:11.

vacuum filled by more terrorist groups. If Russia is worried about

:38:12.:38:16.

Aleppo being a terrorist magnet now, guess what it'll be later. I'm happy

:38:17.:38:22.

that Boris and the MPs are putting this on the table. The more

:38:23.:38:26.

attention that is paid to Aleppo, the more policymakers are forced to

:38:27.:38:30.

discuss this and come up with some option. Whether it's a no-fly or no

:38:31.:38:34.

bomb, there's got to be something in between that can be done. We're

:38:35.:38:39.

putting it on the table, Rosa, but there seems to me to be no stomach

:38:40.:38:45.

in Downing Street or the White House to do more than look at options.

:38:46.:38:49.

That's quite right. It was very interesting the speed with which

:38:50.:38:53.

Downing Street pretty much slapped down Boris Johnson. His was perhaps

:38:54.:38:58.

an admirable statement. It was an emotional response, he obviously

:38:59.:39:03.

feels strongly about the refugee situation,

:39:04.:39:27.

about eight months old and in charge of ways. She's Brexit, she's got to

:39:28.:39:41.

live up to her rhetoric at the conference. She's got Heathrow

:39:42.:39:46.

expansion coming around the corner next week. She's a Middle East

:39:47.:39:51.

entanglements like a hole in the head. Not a shortage of sophistry.

:39:52.:40:02.

She's practical and hothouses of outfit. It seems to me this is the

:40:03.:40:07.

ultimate in point of Fifa mussels worldview. After Afghanistan and the

:40:08.:40:16.

Rock you get a swing away from interventionism and America

:40:17.:40:28.

withdraws. When America decides not to lead from the front or take a

:40:29.:40:33.

serious interest in the Middle East, the Russians fill a vacuum. All that

:40:34.:40:35.

Putin wants, dreadful though he John Woodcock, hadn't you and your

:40:36.:41:00.

party being complicit in helping to create the vacuum. We had drawn a

:41:01.:41:08.

red line under the Syrian chemical weapons and backed away several

:41:09.:41:12.

years ago as did President Obama. You voted for air strikes against

:41:13.:41:17.

so-called Islamic State in Syria last December but by then it was

:41:18.:41:22.

probably too late, the Russians were on the ground and increasingly

:41:23.:41:28.

ensconced in the region. I regretted deeply the decision not to take

:41:29.:41:35.

action once we had drawn a red line against that. But we cannot do

:41:36.:41:43.

foreign affairs and intervention on the basis of not wanting to have

:41:44.:41:46.

started from here and wishing things had gone differently. It has been

:41:47.:41:52.

made hugely more difficult by the intervention of Russia, but the

:41:53.:41:55.

consequences of standing back over the last years have been civilians

:41:56.:42:01.

dying in horrific numbers and a member of the permanent Security

:42:02.:42:06.

Council not simply being too careless in the way it has been

:42:07.:42:11.

bombing but deliberately targeting civilians in an open war crimes of

:42:12.:42:16.

the whole of the rest of the international community to see, on a

:42:17.:42:21.

daily basis, while we do nothing. Of course government is difficult and

:42:22.:42:23.

the Prime Minister has a lot of things on her to-do list. But I

:42:24.:42:32.

think the world cannot really afford to pay a heavy price if we don't act

:42:33.:42:36.

now to put President Putin back into the sense of needing to act within

:42:37.:42:41.

the international framework which the UN sets out rather than this

:42:42.:42:44.

rogue state which is appearing to be now. At times heart-rending issues.

:42:45.:42:53.

I am grateful to you for joining us today and going through them with

:42:54.:42:54.

us. Now, Theresa May wants to lift

:42:55.:42:54.

the ban on new grammar But the policy was not

:42:55.:42:57.

in the Conservative manifesto They did say they were prepared to

:42:58.:43:04.

expand existing grammar schools. So what peers think

:43:05.:43:12.

matters and yesterday There is a diversity

:43:13.:43:14.

of education in this country And no one's going to have a grammar

:43:15.:43:22.

school forced upon them We all should believe in choice

:43:23.:43:36.

and nor should any of us seek to deprive others of what we

:43:37.:43:42.

ourselves have benefited from. It was a German Chancellor who once

:43:43.:43:47.

said the problem with some on the political right

:43:48.:43:49.

is that they promise to the many what they know they will only be

:43:50.:43:52.

able to deliver to the few. If one is imposed into an area,

:43:53.:43:55.

or a transfer takes place to make an existing school selective,

:43:56.:44:00.

the parents, the children who would have expected

:44:01.:44:02.

to go to that school, who would have had expectation

:44:03.:44:07.

of high-quality education for themselves or their child,

:44:08.:44:12.

will find themselves excluded It's morally wrong, it's

:44:13.:44:14.

philosophically wrong, it's practically impossible to implement,

:44:15.:44:20.

and I do pray that the government will think again and place emphasis

:44:21.:44:22.

on raising standards for all, The very notion that

:44:23.:44:26.

by reintroducing selection, the people that this policy

:44:27.:44:35.

is intended to attract will suddenly find their children -

:44:36.:44:40.

let's say the traditional white working-class - would find

:44:41.:44:43.

their children surging into new and better grammar schools

:44:44.:44:47.

is a fantasy. What will actually happen,

:44:48.:44:50.

and I really admire and salute this, is that migrant and first-generation

:44:51.:44:56.

kids from Asia - we know already the highest performing children

:44:57.:45:00.

in Britain are Bangladeshi girls - from Asia and Eastern Europe,

:45:01.:45:03.

will sweep into those But the small problem

:45:04.:45:08.

that the disgruntled and now a disconnected white working class

:45:09.:45:14.

who believed they were going to get I can think of no other tinderbox

:45:15.:45:17.

that you could strike on the hard-pressed and already

:45:18.:45:24.

divided communities. Now there is a body of evidence

:45:25.:45:27.

which shows that teaching pupils in mixed ability settings does

:45:28.:45:32.

indeed lift the attainment of those However, the corollary is that those

:45:33.:45:35.

who would have achieved the very The most able are having

:45:36.:45:42.

their wings clipped. The reasons for inequality

:45:43.:45:50.

in selective settings are many - poorer teachers in charge

:45:51.:45:52.

of less able classes, a lack of confidence,

:45:53.:45:54.

sometimes, in less able children, and a lack of positive

:45:55.:45:57.

peer group role models. But rather than throwing the baby

:45:58.:46:02.

out with the bath water and saying that all selection by

:46:03.:46:05.

ability is always bad, perhaps we should mitigate

:46:06.:46:07.

the impact and to look as you said, so that

:46:08.:46:09.

our most able can fly. We're joined now by the Labour

:46:10.:46:19.

peer Michael Cashman, Welcome back to the programme. Are

:46:20.:46:32.

you against any kind of selection by ability or aptitude? Not at all. My

:46:33.:46:37.

biggest problem is that there is an age picked, at the moment it is

:46:38.:46:43.

11-13, and I don't believe everyone develops at the same time and

:46:44.:46:49.

therefore selection at an imposed age actually mitigates against a

:46:50.:46:55.

majority of children and as I said in a debate I want to make sure the

:46:56.:46:59.

educational service serves the needs of every child throughout their

:47:00.:47:04.

learning years and more importantly, especially with my experience beyond

:47:05.:47:09.

your schooling years, recognise that we have unique potentials that can

:47:10.:47:13.

be developed at different times. The old Grammar school system had the 11

:47:14.:47:17.

plus will stop it was a brutal watershed. I know I suffered because

:47:18.:47:23.

of it. You have not suffered too badly, you are in the House of

:47:24.:47:28.

Lords. I did, because it has an incredible impact. You have overcome

:47:29.:47:34.

it. I overcame it because. You have a CBE. You are a famous actor! I was

:47:35.:47:44.

lucky, a drama teacher saw in this rebel at the secondary modern where

:47:45.:47:49.

I did not feel I fitted, or belonged, he spotted something and

:47:50.:47:53.

because my parents got into debt and I hack to work as a child actor, I

:47:54.:47:57.

went to a stage school that developed my talent and it was only

:47:58.:48:03.

when I was 25 when I wanted to do O-levels and A-levels, I thought I

:48:04.:48:06.

could actually do it. I don't want that to happen to another child. You

:48:07.:48:10.

were selected on the basis of ability? On the basis of talent by a

:48:11.:48:18.

talent scout. My point is, we develop at different ages. Which

:48:19.:48:23.

brings me back to the question I was going to ask you. I began by saying

:48:24.:48:28.

the old grammar school secondary modern system had a brutal watershed

:48:29.:48:33.

at 11 and there were sometimes when you could get back in but by and

:48:34.:48:37.

large that was it, it decided your future education. What if there was

:48:38.:48:45.

a more flexible selective system, that there was not an 11 plus, it

:48:46.:48:51.

was later, and there were multiple opportunities and a variety of

:48:52.:48:56.

schools for aptitudes and abilities that took that into account? Of

:48:57.:49:00.

course I would look at that and will commit but I rely on experts. So

:49:01.:49:08.

Michael Walsh, the chief inspector of education, said increasing

:49:09.:49:13.

academic selections would be a profoundly retrograde step. The

:49:14.:49:18.

institute of education, the national association of school and College

:49:19.:49:22.

leaders, when I read the library briefing from the House of Lords, it

:49:23.:49:28.

is clear the consensus is this does not help social mobility and does

:49:29.:49:32.

not improve school performance overall. Iain Martin, you take a big

:49:33.:49:37.

interest in this. I think you are right about the sharp division at 11

:49:38.:49:42.

and the government has got itself into a mess partly because of the

:49:43.:49:45.

way the story leaked. It was supposed to be the big announcement

:49:46.:49:49.

at conference but it leaked and it is presented that they want a return

:49:50.:49:55.

to the 11 plus and the secondary modern system, which was unfair and

:49:56.:50:00.

divisive, but working back, they are trying to get to somewhere

:50:01.:50:04.

interesting which is if you look at university technical colleges that

:50:05.:50:07.

Ken Baker and others have been behind, there are more than 50 now.

:50:08.:50:15.

There are 39 working towards 50. They take kids at 13-14, so the

:50:16.:50:24.

point is the division is not sharp at 11. Out of that it would be

:50:25.:50:28.

interesting to see if the government as well as creating technical

:50:29.:50:33.

schools, could you create liberal arts colleges? Schools in poor areas

:50:34.:50:42.

for very bright kids. There is a performing... I was meaning

:50:43.:50:46.

humanities. How can we ensure in a country in which we have a delete

:50:47.:50:52.

that is so stratified? How can we ensure it? In the debate, who spoke

:50:53.:50:59.

who did not go to a grammar school? Three. How can we ensure bright kids

:51:00.:51:04.

from poor areas get an elite education of the kind many members

:51:05.:51:13.

of the Cabinet had? For me it is simple. Choice. Patrick Cormack used

:51:14.:51:19.

the word choice. Often we get into a stream and let's take me as an

:51:20.:51:23.

example. A young actor I got into the arts and suddenly decided I

:51:24.:51:28.

wanted to study medicine. There was no method by which at the age of

:51:29.:51:32.

205I could get A-levels and A-levels to do that, therefore I want choice

:51:33.:51:38.

either when someone goes to a specialist college. A lifetime

:51:39.:51:43.

choice? They change their mind. One's talent and potential develops

:51:44.:51:47.

according to our experience of the world. If you looked at our school

:51:48.:51:53.

system and you would find many weaknesses, and a huge diversity of

:51:54.:52:03.

performance between various types of school, but if you looked from the

:52:04.:52:05.

outside, rather than saying more grammar schools would be a priority,

:52:06.:52:08.

you may want to say they should be more, but would it be a priority

:52:09.:52:13.

that the glaring thing we lack is a wide range of high-quality

:52:14.:52:19.

technology schools? I think what most parents want is just a really

:52:20.:52:23.

good school that is not worse than the school that someone else is

:52:24.:52:28.

going to. I went to what Alastair Campbell called a bog-standard

:52:29.:52:33.

comprehensive and I did OK. Now I am a parent and always believed in

:52:34.:52:37.

comprehensive education. Now as a parent, you begin to think, I don't

:52:38.:52:42.

know whether I want to send my little treasure to the comprehensive

:52:43.:52:45.

when others are going to the grammar school. I think there needs to be,

:52:46.:52:52.

for a one nation Conservative, Theresa May is introducing a system

:52:53.:52:57.

which is about differences and degradation, and even having the

:52:58.:53:00.

humanities College, technical College, that is fine if you live in

:53:01.:53:05.

a concentrated urban area where you can go to different schools for

:53:06.:53:10.

different aptitudes, but in a rural area, even a suburb, you want the

:53:11.:53:15.

school up the road to be good and cater to all pupils. The logic of

:53:16.:53:23.

the Tony Blair, Lord Adonis, Michael Gove reforms needs to be followed

:53:24.:53:27.

through and unwonted selection although I think everyone involved

:53:28.:53:32.

went to selective schools. The key is variety. The too long we have had

:53:33.:53:38.

a top-down national model. Let 1000 flowers bloom, try different

:53:39.:53:43.

schools, introduce some selection. There will be some new full-scale

:53:44.:53:46.

grammar schools where people want it but we have to get away from the

:53:47.:53:51.

idea of enforcing one rigid national model. Michael, the final word. This

:53:52.:53:57.

is hopefully what the House of Lords will ask the government to do dash

:53:58.:54:01.

to think again and think of any proposals. There isn't a manifesto

:54:02.:54:07.

commitment. There is not even widespread support on the government

:54:08.:54:11.

benches but hopefully the debate yesterday which Baroness Andrews

:54:12.:54:15.

managed to get will say to the government, if you proceed down this

:54:16.:54:21.

route, it will be very difficult. Think differently, think more

:54:22.:54:25.

widely, think imaginatively. And then there might be a proposal that

:54:26.:54:29.

would emerge that would have the support of the Lord's? I hope so

:54:30.:54:33.

because the Lord's works on the basis of achieving compromise from

:54:34.:54:38.

all parties. It is like my experience of the 15 years in the

:54:39.:54:42.

European Parliament. You have to work with others to achieve the best

:54:43.:54:47.

and that is what I hoped for. Michael Cashman, good to see you

:54:48.:54:48.

again. Time now to see what else has been

:54:49.:54:49.

happening in the world of politics Here's Ellie with the

:54:50.:54:52.

week in 60 seconds. With early voting already underway

:54:53.:54:56.

in the US, Donald Trump's presidential campaign faltered

:54:57.:54:58.

after numerous allegations about his inappropriate

:54:59.:55:01.

behaviour towards women. One suggesting he was

:55:02.:55:06.

like "an octopus." Debating the war in Syria,

:55:07.:55:09.

Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson made this rather

:55:10.:55:11.

undiplomatic suggestion... I'd certainly like to see

:55:12.:55:12.

demonstrations outside But not wanting to be outdone,

:55:13.:55:14.

Jeremy Corbyn's top aide Seumas Milne later suggested that

:55:15.:55:21.

people should protest outside the American Embassy

:55:22.:55:24.

in London instead. Iain Duncan Smith apologised

:55:25.:55:27.

to Labour's shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer,

:55:28.:55:31.

a QC no less, after calling him It was clumsy, it was not meant

:55:32.:55:33.

about him, it was And I don't doubt for one

:55:34.:55:37.

moment his capabilities as a lawyer. Boris Johnson, yes him again,

:55:38.:55:41.

told the Foreign Affairs Select You seem to think the single

:55:42.:55:44.

market is sort of like To paraphrase, it was Groucho

:55:45.:55:48.

himself who once said he'd never be a member of any club would have him

:55:49.:55:56.

as a member, whatever that means. month to go until the US election,

:55:57.:56:10.

November the 8th. Results will be live on BBC One. And BBC World and

:56:11.:56:18.

BBC News. It looks like the past ten days have been a watershed in a

:56:19.:56:22.

campaign. It was pretty nip and tuck but Mrs Clinton seems to be pulling

:56:23.:56:27.

away but not dramatically. Many are surprised she has not pulled away by

:56:28.:56:31.

morbid it is clearly hers to lose? I spend a lot of time in the States

:56:32.:56:36.

and Hillary Clinton is surprisingly unpopular. I do not think people

:56:37.:56:41.

here quite realise. Some try to make an equivalence between her and

:56:42.:56:44.

Donald Trump and her challenge will be to get people to turn out.

:56:45.:56:51.

Probably Donald Trump has been so unappealing people will do that, but

:56:52.:56:54.

it is not a done deal. She needs young people to come out and a

:56:55.:56:58.

massive mobilisation of the black and Hispanic vote. The Republican

:56:59.:57:04.

leadership, which a lot of it has disowned Mr Trump. Their worry is

:57:05.:57:08.

they have written off the White House in their minds, they are

:57:09.:57:12.

trying to hold onto the Senate. This is such a crazy scramble. I spent a

:57:13.:57:20.

lot of time in the US in the past year and the Republican

:57:21.:57:22.

establishment, the part of the establishment that did not do enough

:57:23.:57:26.

to stop him, is now pretty much getting what it deserves. You are

:57:27.:57:33.

right, the polls might be wrong, but the Clinton campaign have played the

:57:34.:57:37.

last few weeks absolutely brilliantly. He walked into it. They

:57:38.:57:42.

suckered him in that first debate and he was ranting and being rude to

:57:43.:57:48.

women, dropped the famous tape, force him to deny that he had ever

:57:49.:57:55.

done this and them produce via the media... It had been a stuttering

:57:56.:58:03.

campaign until then. We will see if you can get his campaign together

:58:04.:58:07.

now. There is all to play for. Before we go, the answer to our

:58:08.:58:09.

quiz. Who is going to be the new women's

:58:10.:58:10.

champion for the UN? I do not know. I will guess wonder

:58:11.:58:24.

woman. Wonder woman. You are both right. She does not even exist!

:58:25.:58:31.

Really? Apparently it is a studio tie-up that makes it, anyway. There

:58:32.:58:34.

you go. The one o'clock news is starting

:58:35.:58:34.

over on BBC One now. I'll be back on Sunday

:58:35.:58:39.

with the Sunday Politics, We will look at airport expansion

:58:40.:58:51.

and inevitably the latest on Brexit. Join me at 11am, BBC One, Sunday

:58:52.:58:53.

morning. ..and builds worlds,

:58:54.:59:11.

not just characters.

:59:12.:59:15.

Andrew Neil is joined by journalists Rosa Prince and Iain Martin to discuss the government's approach to the conflict in Syria, the debate over grammar schools, and the latest news from the SNP conference in Glasgow.


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