19/01/2017 Daily Politics


19/01/2017

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LineFromTo

Afternoon folks and welcome to the Daily Politics.

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Theresa May tells world leaders and global business chiefs

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that Britain will still be "open for business" after Brexit and says

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global elites must do more to respond to the anxieties

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Is the EU out to administer a "punishment beating" to the UK

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We speak to a leading German member of the European Parliament.

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We may be living in an age of political insurgency.

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But, if you're taking on the establishment,

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But did we get some early hints about his political ambitions?

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Eventually I think we'll get the right person and when we do, it'll

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all straighten out. I wonder who he had in mind back

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then? And with me for the whole

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of the programme today, our very own little insurgent -

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Ukip's one and only Now it's been almost 48

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hours since Theresa May gave her big speech on Brexit,

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so it's probably time The Prime Minister has been

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addressing global political and business bigwigs gathering

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for the World Economic Forum She's been keen to reassure them

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that Britain will remain very much open for business

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after we leave the EU. Our decision to leave

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the European Union was no rejection of our friends in Europe,

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with whom we share common interest So, at the heart of the plan I set

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out earlier this week, is a determination to pursue a bold

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and ambitious free trade agreement between the UK

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and the European Union. But more than that, we seek

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the freedom to strike new trade deals with old friends

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and new allies, right The kind of audience there is at

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Davos, it must have been a binary speech. On the one hand she's the

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leader of Brexit, which they hate, on the other hand, she is a huge

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supporter of globalisation and world trade, which is under threat, and

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they love. Well, I hope, listening to her speech, they might be

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rethinking some of their cliched group think. You know, that, that's

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the second great speech we've heard from Theresa May in three days. I

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think if I was asked to contribute to what she was saying, I woonted

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have changed a word. I think she's Bang on the Money. -- I wouldn't

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have changed a word. What are the chances of rethinking, we've had

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some of the pressures up. We've heard HSBC talking about "perhaps"

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which is the key word, of Retallick locating staff to Paris. And US

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Goldman Sachs talking about 1,000 from London to Frankfurt. How

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seriously to the take the threats? When I was working for a FTSE 100

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fund manager in the when we decided not to join the euro, we heard the

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same claims made and actually far from jobs being lost to London,

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since then London has consolidated its position. So you don't take it

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seriously? I - we heard a lot of these claims made in the run-up to

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the referendum. It may than there are some businesses who feel they

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are better off moving to Paris or Frankfurt but we heard this 20 years

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ago when we decided not to join the euro. What will decide whether or

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not the City and rest of the UK prospers, is whether or not, having

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left the European Union, we make good on this vision of a liberal

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Brexit, opening ourselves up to the world and not just the eurozone. If

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we do that, we will prosper enormously. Did you do that do you

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think they'll stay? I think so. What about Toyota? It employs 3,000

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people in Britain? A lot of the people employed by corporate

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lobbyists in the run-up to the referendum were dead against Brexit.

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They haven't got over it but the actual business men and women, who

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make the decisionses, I think will come to term with the change,

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recognise liberal breaks sit good business and we'll see them chaging

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their tune. But it was the Chairman of HSBC, not the corporate lobbyist,

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that said, "We will move in about two years' time when Brexit

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becomes... ." It is in about two years' now rather than immediately

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after. Are you sceptical of the claims? I am but they know their

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better than I do. Let's wait and see, I suspect in 10, 15 years'

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time, the City of London will be more of a global financial hub than

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it is today. What do you make of this claim, the Maltese Prime

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Minister, I think he is part now of the - he is in the EU ro Tait

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presidency seat for the first six months of the year and repeats this

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demand or idea that Britain would have to pay a 60 billion euro exit

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price. I mean t would seem to me - I don't know what really that is based

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on, or whether it has any real basis but whether it has any basis or not,

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I would suggest to you in a no British Prime Minister could ever

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agree to that? Of course, it is a businessless claim. But what we need

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to avoid doing is getting involved in a war of words between some of

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the more excitable eurocrats. He is the Prime Minister. He is head of

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the rotating presidency. Some of the people, they are talking about their

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tax and bonuses and empire of official dom who'll resent us from

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leaving. We won't rise to the debate. We are good neighbours and

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Theresa May's speech was generous, making clear we want to be good

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neighbours. That wasn't something we said during the referendum campaign.

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A country outside the European Union, we want to cooperate. It may

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not be 60 billion, unlikely to be anywhere near, that but will there

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not be some price to pay as we exit? Clearly we want it leave on good

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terms and we want to honour any commitments we have under

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international law but we're not about to pick up a huge bill to, you

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know, help some of the anti-Brexiteers in the European

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system come to terms with their grief. We are going to leave in a

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couple of years' time and, you know, we promise not to pursue a claim for

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our share of buildings and other things that our money has funded, in

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return for a good, fair, reasonable settlement. We want this to work for

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both sides. We don't want it to be a bitter divorce. You have said twice

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in the past couple of minute, how much you liked both of Mrs May's

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speeches, so you are generally happy with the direction that she's going

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in now? I'm absolutely delighted. I have been pushing all my adult life

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to have a Government, a Prime Minister, committed to this agenda,

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I really feel quite emotional about t actually. I think it is wonderful.

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It is likely - we are waiting on the Supreme Court, I think it is 24th

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January. Next Tuesday. Next Tuesday, it is going to rule. There is an be

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a assumption, we don't know, but in the media and politics, we seem to

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be operating on the asuchings that the Supreme Court will uphold the

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challenge. Are there any parliamentary dangers for the

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Article 50 process if we have to do what the Supreme Court says, and it

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has to go through the parliamentary procedure? I don't think - if the

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court rules that it is exclusively for Parliament to make any decision,

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I don't see a danger. A worst case scenario, if you find a Parliament

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that resists the referendum, you simply call a new election and make

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sure you have a Parliament that agrees with the verdict of the

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people. I think the danger comes from the judges get it into their

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heads that it is someone other than Parliament that must make this

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decision. For example, if they give the Welsh Assembly or the Scottish

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Parliament or any other third party de facto veto powers, that I think

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would trigger a constitutional crisis, but it is for Parliament to

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decide. Even if the House of Lords decided to throw a woby, you could

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call an election reand replace them. So you think it is possible in the

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Lords do in some way try to block this or delay it, that could provoke

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an election, too? I do, absolutely. You know, if we could leave the

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European Union and make sure that those who make our laws in

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Parliament live under the lawyer, that would be the icing on the cake,

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wouldn't it? What about Ukip? Will Paul Nuttal will fighting the

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by-election himself? We'll have a hustings tomorrow. I genuinely don't

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know. We'll make the announcement on Saturday. Paul would be a superb

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candidate. This is not about Ukip, fws Stoke. Stoke has had a Labour MP

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from 1950, it deserves something better than that. Would he be your

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choice? I think he would be superb but we're a Democratic Party and I'm

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not registered to vote in that hustings. I will be supporting

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whoever but Paul will be a superb candidate. He really would be a

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force for Stoke. All right. We shall see.

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European leaders have continued to respond

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Yesterday, the President of the European Commission,

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Jean Claude Juncker, struck a conciliatory tone,

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saying he wanted a "fair deal" without any "hostility".

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However, the Maltese Prime Minister, Joseph Muscat, said the deal should

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It came as Boris Johnson, on a trip to India, took aim

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at the French President, warning him not to hit

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the UK with "punishment beatings, in the manner of some

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You can always depend on Boris Johnson.

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Joining us now from the European Parliament in Strasbourg

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is the MEP Manfred Weber, the Chairman of the centre-right EPP

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grouping in the European Parliament.

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Welcome to the programme, Mr Weber. Are you so worried that others might

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want to leave the European Union that you need to be seen to give

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Britain a really bad deal? ? After the Brexit, we experienced that

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Europeans via the polls that people are signalling that they understand

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that how important European Union is. ... They believe in the European

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Union. That's why I have no problem with this. They are ready for a fair

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deal. The European Parliament is a Parliament of content. They are

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ready for a fair deal but we have to discuss what fair means. You don't

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think that the European mainstream political establishment, of which

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you are a distinguished member, faces troubles when Wilder is ahead

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in the polls in Holland and Marine Le Pen could come first in the first

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round of the French elections. You don't think these are problems for

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people like you? Absolutely. They are problems for all of us, I would

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say because when they are winning, who want to destroy our partnership

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approach. For example, to have a good straight deal, Marine Le Pen

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makes a campaign against the single market because in frances the

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biggest problem is the unemployment rate. So everybody has its problem.

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The question is how can we solve them? Is it better to split up the

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European Union and Member States or work together? That's the approach

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behind and frankly speaking when I hear the words from Boris Johnson,

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that is exactly what I mean, to provoke each other, to say to each

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other that we don't like each other and so on, that is not the way how

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we should work and Boris Johnson is behaving like a clown and is taking

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away the credibility of the government. Well, Boris onson is not

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hear to defend himself. ! Let's try to come back to the substance. When

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you look at what is happening in Holland n France, the ongoing

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Italian political and financial crisis, Mrs Merkel facing a very

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tough collection coming up in September. Have you learned nothing

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from the Brexit vote? Well, I have learned a lot from the Brexit vote.

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For example, that nobody explained to the British people what Europe is

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all B for example, when you talk about trade, Theresa May made clear

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statements on trade. So what is EU? EU is the single market. The free

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trade zone. That is for the whole of the European Union much that's what

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the Brits wanted. It was the idea of Europe. Now you say you want to

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leave the European Union. I respect the outcome of Europe, but on the

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other hand you say you want a free trade agreement. So leads to the

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situation that nothing will change. Do you want to leave or not leave

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the single market. Mr Weber there are many countries who have free

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trade agreements with the EU, the most recent Canada, which are not

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members of the single market. Absolutely. So why can't Britain?

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And they will never get Canada, the others will never get the same

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status like EU members have inside of the European Union, of this this

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free trade zone, created during the last decade, so much positive

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development for all of us, for Britain, Germany all of us and that

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is what some want to destroy now. I fight for t others can destroy it.

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It is a normal democratic process. I'm elected and Boris Johnson is

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elected. If it is so positive, why has there been mass youth

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unemployment in the eurozone and it is only this year or the end of last

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year that the European Union managed in GDP terms, to get back to the

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size it was in 2008. Why is that so positive? Britain is 15% bigger than

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2008, America, 20% bigger Fair question ache ask, why has Spain and

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Ireland got rise rates. And Germany with a stable development Because

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they slashed wages. In Spain they slashed wages by 20% and there is

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still 40% youth unemployment in Spain. Is there a chance of an

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answer or no chance? I want to answer your question. You want it

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interview me and that is the background of our meeting, yeah,

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that's why I want to give you a rection a. The question is the

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growth. The most important question about

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social welfare, all of these questions are national

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responsibilities. Don't come with the question that Europe is

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responsible for everything. That is the easy question. That Brussels is

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always responsible. That is not true. Others have tasks to do.

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Please be fair. I'm still not clear what the lesson you have learned

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from the Brexit vote is, apart from business as usual. You just want to

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repeat the same arguments and behave in the same way. Given all of the

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political challenges that Europe faces this year, are you not

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changing your behaviour in any way? No national politician has convinced

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people why Europe is important. I will give you another example when

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you talk about trade. I still think the Single Market is a good thing.

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And another example is the fight against terror. I think we need the

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European Union. That is why we work in the European Parliament on a

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jihadist list, our intelligence forces are strongly working

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together. That is the idea of Europe. It is about practical

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things. I learned with my meeting with David Davies that Britain wants

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to stay in this unity of exchange of data that is part of Europe. That's

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why I have no idea what Brexit means for the moment. You want to leave,

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but I learn that you want to stay in the Single Market, the fair trade

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agreement, the question of exchange between universities on research in

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Europe. Oxford and others want to stay. What are you leaving? What do

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you want to do? Don't talk about Europe and bureaucracy and Brussels.

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I'm in favour of this partnership approach. What do you say to the

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Finance Minister of Italy, who has said the problem with Europe is

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Europe, that people don't have faith in Europe any more? And he has to

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think about himself because he is a politician who once Europe. He is

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dealing with the Euro. Let's face the reality. The reality is we have

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a global problem on the table. We see how big are member states are.

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The nations in the European Union are competitive. We have to face the

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reality that one single member state of this European Union alone cannot

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compete with China and others. That is the reality. You can think in

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another direction, but I think it is better to combine our forces and

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fight for a common interests, both the social model of Europe, for

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example, which is unique globally, to fight for these common values

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together. That is what I believe in, that is what I will fight for. I am

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a Democrat. If you are a Democrat, you no doubt you respect the result

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on June 24. It affects EU citizens living in Britain, of which there

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are about 3 million with their families. And EU citizens living in

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the EU. Why not take them off the table now? Why not say that any EU

:18:57.:19:02.

citizen in the UK has guaranteed rights indefinitely, and any UK

:19:03.:19:08.

citizen living in the EU -- EU has guaranteed rights indefinitely? Why

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not do that now? That as a starting point already. Mrs Merkel has turned

:19:15.:19:22.

that down. At the moment nobody wants to start negotiations. The

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point I am putting it to you is that when Mrs May made the offer to the

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German chancellor, she turned it down. Why make these people part of

:19:36.:19:41.

the negotiations? Please don't be surprised when Angela Merkel and

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other leaders in Europe will say, first of all, please, London, give

:19:45.:19:51.

us a triggering of Article 50. For the moment we only have speeches. We

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have declarations. Formerly there is nothing on the table. That is why it

:19:58.:20:02.

is completely fair when I asked London, please put formerly your

:20:03.:20:05.

questions on the table. Then we can start the negotiation. If we agree

:20:06.:20:16.

on the principle that we are not punishing Britain for leaving the

:20:17.:20:18.

European Union, then on the other hand I would also ask, don't make

:20:19.:20:23.

pressure on the rest of the European Union in saying you want to deliver

:20:24.:20:32.

another economic model. I merely asked about EU citizens. But you

:20:33.:20:41.

seem not to want to do anything at the moment. I clarified this. I'm

:20:42.:20:46.

totally ready to respect the current situation and respect the citizens.

:20:47.:20:53.

I only wanted to ask if we are not creating any additional aggression.

:20:54.:20:58.

Save this pleased to Johnson, when you see him next time. I will talk

:20:59.:21:03.

to my friends to reduce the pressure. We're ready to negotiate.

:21:04.:21:08.

But leaving the European Union means leaving the European Union. We got

:21:09.:21:20.

that, Mr Webber. I do many things in this world, Mr Webber, but taking

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messages to Boris Johnson is not one of them. Thank you.

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Now as we've been hearing, Theresa May has been addressing

:21:26.:21:28.

the World Economic Forum in Davos this morning.

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It's an annual gathering in Switzerland, where political

:21:31.:21:32.

and business leaders discuss global issues.

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But what is this exclusive event, and which masters and mistresses

:21:34.:21:36.

of the universe are attending this year?

:21:37.:21:47.

The Forum - as it is known - takes place every year in the alpine

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The event was founded in 1971 by the German

:21:51.:21:54.

Its stated mission? To improve the state of the world.

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The theme of this year's event is Responsive

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More than 2,500 politicians, business leaders and heads of state

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from almost 100 countries are attending Davos.

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But if you're hoping to attend next year,

:22:14.:22:19.

Speakers at this year's Forum include US Vice President Joe Biden,

:22:20.:22:23.

Chinese Premier Xi Jingping, and the Head of the International

:22:24.:22:26.

David Cameron and George Osborne are also making speeches

:22:27.:22:39.

But with the cost of attending the annual Davos shindig running

:22:40.:22:52.

into tens of thousands of pounds, some have criticised the event

:22:53.:22:54.

as a glorified party for the global elite.

:22:55.:23:02.

Joining us from Davos to discuss this further is Jennifer Blanke.

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She's the Chief Economist for the World Economic Forum.

:23:05.:23:11.

Thank you for joining us. Can I just ask you one question. After the

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speech by the Chinese president to Davos this year, China daily says

:23:23.:23:31.

President G has become the general secretary of globalisation. Are you

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comfortable with that? Well look, I think that everybody is looking how

:23:36.:23:40.

to make globalisation work well. There has been a love of

:23:41.:23:45.

disgruntlement in recent years about how the opening in various ways has

:23:46.:23:48.

affected people. And I think that the fact that the Chinese government

:23:49.:23:53.

wants to take a serious stand on some issues, and when you talk about

:23:54.:23:57.

globalisation it is also about how we deal with things like climate

:23:58.:24:01.

change, and I do believe that the Chinese economy is one of the most

:24:02.:24:07.

important, the second most important, soon-to-be first, in the

:24:08.:24:11.

world. It is important they take a strong stand on some of these

:24:12.:24:15.

issues. Do I feel comfortable? It has to be a coordinated effort. We

:24:16.:24:20.

need leaders of important countries taking stands. China joined the WTO

:24:21.:24:30.

in 2001 and has put in face -- place market access foreign companies. Did

:24:31.:24:40.

anybody raise that with him in Davos? I think if you think about

:24:41.:24:45.

globalisation there are many things that combine to make a globalised

:24:46.:24:51.

world. If you look at China, why is China pro-globalisation? Because the

:24:52.:24:54.

country stagnated for decades until 1979. Did anybody raise these points

:24:55.:25:05.

with him? I don't know if anybody raised that with him directly. I was

:25:06.:25:09.

not in the room with him. However, clear these kind of things are dealt

:25:10.:25:13.

with at the WTO. There is a mechanism. We are mapping out the

:25:14.:25:18.

future here, not looking at the past. He was the Chinese leader

:25:19.:25:23.

championing globalisation and free trade at Davos, and yet is presiding

:25:24.:25:27.

over a ruthless crackdown on dissidents in China itself. The

:25:28.:25:36.

trend, according to human rights watch, is decidedly negative. There

:25:37.:25:41.

has in a crackdown on human rights lawyers. Did anybody in Davos raise

:25:42.:25:46.

that with him? I don't think what we do is raise issues directly with

:25:47.:25:50.

foreign leaders. We raise discussion points among many people about

:25:51.:25:54.

issues that need to be raised. Human rights is very high on the agenda.

:25:55.:25:58.

The question of democracy is very high on the agenda. Not if you

:25:59.:26:04.

didn't raise it with him. That is not the point of Davos. It is not a

:26:05.:26:11.

one-on-one between us and foreign leaders. It is about bringing

:26:12.:26:16.

together business, government, civil society and academia to map out a

:26:17.:26:19.

future. We can talk about human rights issues all we want. There are

:26:20.:26:23.

many issues of human rights around the world. It didn't sound like you

:26:24.:26:29.

talked about it at all. We definitely talked about it a lot. I

:26:30.:26:35.

think we can forgive the fact that these corporate kleptocratic

:26:36.:26:43.

get-together. We can forget they trade cliches as easily as they

:26:44.:26:48.

traded business cards. But we can't forget that Davos creates groupthink

:26:49.:26:52.

and it allows so-called leaders to marinade themselves in this bogus

:26:53.:26:57.

sense of reassurance. They don't see the dangers of their wrong policies.

:26:58.:27:02.

In 2006, shortly before the sub-prime crisis, they completely

:27:03.:27:10.

failed to see the sub-prime crisis coming. Shortly before Lehman

:27:11.:27:13.

Brothers went bust, the founder of the world economic Forum said the

:27:14.:27:20.

mood from Davos was optimistic. What do you say to that? That it is

:27:21.:27:29.

almost a self-deluding groupthink? I don't think it is a self-deluding

:27:30.:27:35.

groupthink. Maybe two thirds of the people in Davos are from business

:27:36.:27:39.

and government. The other third come from civil society. They come from

:27:40.:27:44.

social entrepreneurs and academia. I agree there is a discussion about

:27:45.:27:49.

whether we have missed out on something. Certainly the rise of

:27:50.:27:53.

inequality is of great concern. I focus most of my time thinking about

:27:54.:27:57.

how the process can work differently. It is easy to complain

:27:58.:28:01.

about the situation from outside. It is harder to map out what we are

:28:02.:28:06.

going to do going forward. We have leaders in Davos. But the people who

:28:07.:28:10.

make decisions are the leaders. Therefore it's very important that

:28:11.:28:14.

we sit here together. We came out with the report a few days ago. We

:28:15.:28:20.

talked about the fact that growth is not enough. It is very important for

:28:21.:28:24.

the process of growth to be inclusive. This resonates very well

:28:25.:28:27.

with what Theresa May talked about today. This is something that is

:28:28.:28:33.

high on the agenda. It may be high on the agenda but you have been

:28:34.:28:37.

going since 1971. What has Davos done about low wages, growing

:28:38.:28:45.

inequality? First of all it is not just growing inequality. We are

:28:46.:28:48.

contributing to a better understanding of what has to happen.

:28:49.:28:52.

Clearly the growth model that we had used in recent years is no longer

:28:53.:28:57.

functioning. But what have you done? We have convened discussion leaders.

:28:58.:29:01.

We have a global challenge initiative on the issue of inclusive

:29:02.:29:06.

growth, where we bring together leaders, figuring out how it is we

:29:07.:29:11.

can work together to change systems. Discussion is the first step. That

:29:12.:29:15.

is one thing we have done. If you look at other areas we have worked

:29:16.:29:21.

on, for example, rainforests, we are working on both trying to protect

:29:22.:29:26.

the devastation of rainforests while increasing the productivity of

:29:27.:29:28.

agriculture at the same time. Dealing again with the inclusiveness

:29:29.:29:33.

of the growth process of those people who live in rainforests. I

:29:34.:29:38.

asked about low wages and inequality. Another example is that

:29:39.:29:44.

many of our big companies in a project they did together all

:29:45.:29:47.

committed to hiring a large number of young people into internship

:29:48.:29:54.

programmes. This started a few years ago. We have already touched many

:29:55.:29:57.

thousands of young people, which is a big problem in Europe in

:29:58.:30:02.

particular. There are commitments we follow through on. In 1971, the kind

:30:03.:30:08.

of people at Davos and about 40 times the average wage of the people

:30:09.:30:14.

who work for them. Today it's closer to 160 or 170 times. That's the

:30:15.:30:18.

inequality. A lot of people will think Davos is part of the problem,

:30:19.:30:23.

the people there are part of the problem? They pay themselves so

:30:24.:30:27.

much, they pay their workers in real terms less and less. They are the

:30:28.:30:29.

problem, not the solution. I don't think tts only inequality

:30:30.:30:37.

problem in the world. The fact is that labour has not seen an increase

:30:38.:30:41.

in wages. That's true. We came up the idea of a social context

:30:42.:30:44.

yesterday where business leaders are committing to, you know, take

:30:45.:30:47.

efforts to avoid this sort of inequality. But it is not just about

:30:48.:30:52.

what CEOs earn and what the rest of the populous earns. What I'm much

:30:53.:30:56.

more worried about is the fact that medium incomes has not gone up. The

:30:57.:30:59.

middle class is not seeing improvement and this is' where we

:31:00.:31:04.

are focussing and at the same time let's keep in mind poverty has

:31:05.:31:07.

dropped massively in recent years, and this has a lot to do with a

:31:08.:31:11.

well-regulated market-based economy. All right, let me bring Douglas

:31:12.:31:19.

Carswell back N The The sort of corporate cleptocratss. That means

:31:20.:31:27.

thieves. Well #24er what war web jp Haasings and the East India Company

:31:28.:31:32.

used to be. The value of the shares lost 30% of its value, 30% of money

:31:33.:31:37.

and yet executives running businesses awarded themselves 80%

:31:38.:31:41.

pay increases. Corporate governance has broken down, we have capitalism

:31:42.:31:46.

without capitalists. A final question, to you, Jenny. With the

:31:47.:31:51.

election of Mr Trump, with the Brexit vote, with the rise of

:31:52.:31:57.

political insurgents across Europe, this year and many elections, is

:31:58.:32:03.

Davos past its peak, not just out of touch, it is over, really. A were

:32:04.:32:11.

professor from Harvard once said - the conventional wisdom of Davos is

:32:12.:32:15.

always wrong, that you are wrong so often that you are now in decline?

:32:16.:32:20.

Well, if I go back it something you said before, about the sub-prime

:32:21.:32:22.

crisis, I don't think anybody saw it coming. In terms of whether Davos is

:32:23.:32:26.

fit for purpose, we've reinvented ourselves year after year to I can

:32:27.:32:30.

at that on key issue that is really important on the global agenda. So,

:32:31.:32:35.

do I think we are pass say, no? . Particularly because I think we are

:32:36.:32:38.

constantly bringing new voices in, young voices from around the world

:32:39.:32:42.

and I very much home because there is no other framework for

:32:43.:32:45.

public-private discussion like we have, we will be fit for purpose in

:32:46.:32:48.

the future. Thank you for joining us. We'll let you get back to the

:32:49.:32:51.

proceedings. Representatives of the devolved

:32:52.:32:54.

administrations have been meeting UK government ministers in Westminster

:32:55.:32:56.

this morning, to talk about - Theresa May said in her

:32:57.:32:59.

speech that she wanted the governments of Scotland,

:33:00.:33:03.

Wales and Northern Ireland to be But the SNP have said this week

:33:04.:33:05.

that the UK government's policy to leave the single market makes

:33:06.:33:08.

a second independence Mike Russell, the Scottish

:33:09.:33:10.

government's spokesman on Brexit, spoke to the BBC on his

:33:11.:33:15.

way into the meeting. We were meant to be

:33:16.:33:18.

involved in decisions, I think there will be a general view

:33:19.:33:20.

that that breached the process What do you expect to come

:33:21.:33:26.

out of this meeting? Well, I'm hopeful we'll take forward

:33:27.:33:30.

the options in the paper that we've submitted,

:33:31.:33:32.

and particularly the options of Scotland remaining a member

:33:33.:33:34.

of the single market, They have been well-supported

:33:35.:33:36.

across the board and I'll be We take the Scottish Government's

:33:37.:33:41.

proposal seriously. We'll have a discussion

:33:42.:33:45.

about them today. We're going to be involved over

:33:46.:33:48.

a period of time in these discussions and I'm meeting

:33:49.:33:51.

Mr Russell again next So let's see what he has to say

:33:52.:33:53.

at today's presentation. I've said I'm open-minded

:33:54.:33:56.

on a whole range of issues but the Scottish Government has

:33:57.:33:59.

to come forward with an evidence Joining me now is Joanna Cherry,

:34:00.:34:01.

the SNP's Westminster spokesperson Welcome to the programme. Mike

:34:02.:34:17.

Russell who we just heard there, says, implied that the EU single

:34:18.:34:22.

market is more important than the UK single market. Why is that? Well, I

:34:23.:34:26.

think they are both more important to Scotland. It's a little-known

:34:27.:34:32.

fact this, but England, Scotland is actually England's biggest export

:34:33.:34:36.

destination. So, our aim is to remain part of the EU single market,

:34:37.:34:44.

and the UK single market. Why would the EU single market, as Mr Mr

:34:45.:34:49.

Russell's mind, be more important than the UK single market? I think

:34:50.:34:54.

what Mike is getting at is the fact that for us at the moment the growth

:34:55.:34:58.

market is the EU. Scotland's exports to the EU are growing. How much do

:34:59.:35:02.

they send to the EU? I cannot give the precise igs F I can, ?12

:35:03.:35:05.

billion. Just under, 11.6. How much do you export to the rest of the UK?

:35:06.:35:10.

Last year we expected about ?46 billion and the rest of the UK

:35:11.:35:14.

exported into Scotland about ?52 billion. You will see Scotland is

:35:15.:35:18.

actually a bigger export market for the rest of the UK. What's important

:35:19.:35:23.

about that. No, hold on. You just admitted, the actual figure last

:35:24.:35:29.

year was ?48.5 billion. I'm taking the most recent. Well the most

:35:30.:35:33.

recent ones are coming out today, this week, I have not seen them.

:35:34.:35:41.

?48.5 million to the rest of the UK, verses ?12 billion to the rest of

:35:42.:35:44.

the EU. Your exports to the rest of the UK are four times your exports

:35:45.:35:48.

to the EU. In what way account EU single market be more important than

:35:49.:35:52.

the UK single market? It is our growth market. It is four timing

:35:53.:35:57.

bigger the UK You are pos itting this question to me as though we had

:35:58.:36:02.

to make a choice between the UK and EU single market. David Davis went

:36:03.:36:05.

to Ireland and spoke to businessmen and women in Dublin and he said that

:36:06.:36:08.

the Republic of Ireland will not need to choose after Brexit between

:36:09.:36:12.

its commitment to the UK and its commitment to the EU. We believe

:36:13.:36:15.

that if Scotland stays in the single market and the rest of the UK does

:36:16.:36:19.

not, then Scotland will not and should not have to choose between

:36:20.:36:23.

its commitment to the EU and the rest rest of the UK as trading

:36:24.:36:27.

markets and my point in saying this to you, awe weren't far off on

:36:28.:36:34.

figures I said ?4646 billion from Scotland to -- ?46 billion to

:36:35.:36:39.

Scotland. My point is, that Scotland is Britain's biggest export mark it

:36:40.:36:46.

would be a kamikaze action to create a hard border between Scotland and

:36:47.:36:51.

England. We're not interested in that, we're interested in respecting

:36:52.:36:54.

the wish of the Scottish people to remain in the EU. I heard you

:36:55.:36:57.

talking about a veto earlier. We are not interested in that. We believe

:36:58.:37:01.

that the wishes of the rest of the UK, England and Wales, not Northern

:37:02.:37:04.

Ireland, to leave the EU, must be respected, in the same way that the

:37:05.:37:07.

wish of the Scots to Remain should be the ared. That's why we've put

:37:08.:37:12.

forward in compromise proposal that my colleague, Mike Russell is

:37:13.:37:15.

current willy discussing in the joint ministerial committee. Now

:37:16.:37:18.

that compromise, you will see, Andrew, you will know that we

:37:19.:37:22.

suggested that the whole of the UK could remain in the single market.

:37:23.:37:26.

That has been ruled out Theresa May ruled that out on Tuesday in her

:37:27.:37:31.

speech. One might question her motives. It is ruled out. Our

:37:32.:37:36.

fallback position was Scotland should remain in the single market.

:37:37.:37:40.

The Spanish have said that's not going to happen Well, the Spanish

:37:41.:37:43.

may have said it is not going to happen but the Spanish like the rest

:37:44.:37:48.

of us are going into a negotiation. We heard Theresa May specifically

:37:49.:37:50.

talk about the wishes of the Spanish fishermen to have access to the

:37:51.:37:55.

fisheries around the UK, so people might state what their ideal

:37:56.:38:00.

position is, in any negotiation, but there is room for give and take.

:38:01.:38:05.

Well, the so Secretary of State for Europe in Spain. There is only one

:38:06.:38:09.

negotiator, that's the UK Government - if the UK leaves the single

:38:10.:38:13.

market, the whole of the UK leaves the single market. That's one voice

:38:14.:38:18.

out of 27 others. You need all 27. It is a strong one. That is why I

:38:19.:38:24.

and my colleagues have been travelling around the European

:38:25.:38:26.

Union, since the Brexit vote speaking to other Member States.

:38:27.:38:28.

Let's look at the Spanish situation in particular. On the fringes of

:38:29.:38:34.

Spain we have Gibraltar. It is in a slightly an op louse position. It

:38:35.:38:39.

voted overwhelmingly to remain part of the European Union. Gibraltar is

:38:40.:38:45.

in the EU but not the customs union. The Channel Islands are in the

:38:46.:38:48.

customs union but not until the EU. There is existing scope and

:38:49.:38:51.

precedent for differential arrangements. Now we are are in

:38:52.:38:56.

completely unchartered territory. No member state has voted to leave the

:38:57.:39:01.

EU. So it is unchartered. Equally the proposals which the Scottish

:39:02.:39:04.

Government have put forward are unchartered Terry. Hold on a minute

:39:05.:39:13.

your proposal, basically proposed the devolution of almost everything

:39:14.:39:18.

to the Scottish Parliament -- immigration, separate business

:39:19.:39:22.

regime. Corporation tax. Everything. It's basically a blueprint for

:39:23.:39:24.

independence. The British Government is not going to agree to that. Well,

:39:25.:39:28.

let's see what the British Government... You would need a hard

:39:29.:39:33.

border if you had that. Your own immigration. No, David Davis has

:39:34.:39:38.

told us when Britain leaves the European Union and the Republic of

:39:39.:39:41.

Ireland remains a member there will be no hard border between the north

:39:42.:39:45.

and South. The Republic of Ireland is not a member of shengin. You

:39:46.:39:49.

would be a new member, that may be a price you have to pay It is a member

:39:50.:39:54.

of the common travel area, which has been in existence before the

:39:55.:39:56.

European Union and which Scotland has been a member of since way

:39:57.:39:59.

before the European Union, so what we are looking for here, in our

:40:00.:40:04.

compromised proposals is a compromise in the situation... It is

:40:05.:40:09.

not a compromise, it is a demand for independence by the back door. It is

:40:10.:40:14.

not, Andrew. Well, one of the people sitting on the council, Sir Charles

:40:15.:40:16.

Grant who was involved in this process you went through, said that

:40:17.:40:21.

these plans are not legally, politically or technically feasible.

:40:22.:40:26.

Equally, David Edwards, my former tutor and distinguished former judge

:40:27.:40:30.

at the European Court of Justice, who sits on the panel, has said that

:40:31.:40:34.

the proposals should be looked at seriously. Now that's one of the

:40:35.:40:39.

finest legal brains in Scotland. Let me bring in Douglas Carswell in.

:40:40.:40:43.

Scotland didn't vote to leave the European Union. It's now having to

:40:44.:40:46.

leave the European Union, and the single market. You can understand

:40:47.:40:49.

why they are upset? Well, I suspect that some in the SNP would see any

:40:50.:40:54.

event as a pretext to call for a second referendum. But, I think it's

:40:55.:40:58.

important to remember that more people in Scotland voted to stay in

:40:59.:41:03.

the UK, just over 2 million, than voted to remain in the EU. We made

:41:04.:41:09.

the decision as a United Kingdom, on our EU membership, and, you know, my

:41:10.:41:15.

side won that... They were promised if they voted... I'm sorry, there

:41:16.:41:20.

was a referendum. I feel for you. It was promised to us in Scotland if we

:41:21.:41:25.

voted to remain part of the UK, we will remain part of the EU. That

:41:26.:41:28.

promise has broken. Circumstances have changed. Indeed it has, it was

:41:29.:41:35.

a very important point. It was said the way to vote to stay in the EU

:41:36.:41:39.

was to vote for Scotland to stay in the UK. A quick question for you. In

:41:40.:41:43.

the current timetable Britain is scheduled to leave the EU in March

:41:44.:41:48.

2019. Will there be a referendum on Scottish independence before then?

:41:49.:41:51.

Whether or not there will be a referendum depends on the British

:41:52.:41:56.

Government's suppose response to our proposals and that's what is under

:41:57.:41:59.

discussion in the jount ministerial committee this morning. We do not

:42:00.:42:03.

know. We do not know but if they ditch the proposals and dent look at

:42:04.:42:07.

them seriously, it is likely there will be another independence

:42:08.:42:12.

referendum. Before March 2019. The First Minister said it will not be

:42:13.:42:16.

this year We'll see how the timetable unfolds thereafter. That

:42:17.:42:23.

would only believe 2018 Now, we like to ask the big

:42:24.:42:28.

Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the world?

:42:29.:42:32.

Our guest of the day, Douglas Carswell, says he's very

:42:33.:42:36.

But, he argues, most mainstream politicians have a pessimistic view,

:42:37.:42:40.

and that is bad news for us and for our society.

:42:41.:42:44.

# You've got to accentuate the positive

:42:45.:42:48.

When we think of politics, we often place politicians

:42:49.:43:06.

and their policies on a spectrum between left and right but the real

:43:07.:43:16.

divide in politics today isn't between left and right.

:43:17.:43:18.

# Just when everything looked so dark...#

:43:19.:43:30.

Do you, like me, believe that the world is looking up,

:43:31.:43:35.

that the human condition, however imperfect,

:43:36.:43:36.

Do you believe that modernity, particularly in its Western

:43:37.:43:42.

form is a corruption of the human condition?

:43:43.:43:46.

This difference in our attitude towards the past

:43:47.:43:52.

Because if you believe we've come down, you invite people to impose

:43:53.:43:56.

a blueprint as the solution and that's been the pretext of every

:43:57.:44:02.

If, instead, you recognise that the world has been getting

:44:03.:44:08.

better, you are half way to accepting the liberal idea

:44:09.:44:13.

of a self-organising society, with no need for grand plans and no

:44:14.:44:16.

Guess which way of looking at things most politicians prefer?

:44:17.:44:21.

The one that puts them centre stage, obviously.

:44:22.:44:23.

# You've got to spread joy (up to the maximum)

:44:24.:44:26.

# Bring gloom (down to the minimum)...#

:44:27.:44:30.

Liberals have lost sight of the idea of a self-organising society,

:44:31.:44:32.

Which is why they side with those supernational

:44:33.:44:42.

agencies, and organisations, who want to organisation

:44:43.:44:45.

Too many self-styled progressives fail to appreciate quite how much

:44:46.:44:55.

Living standards are at a record high.

:44:56.:45:03.

Income and equality is lower today in Britain

:45:04.:45:05.

Violent crime is almost half what it was in the 1990s

:45:06.:45:11.

and my favourite, a moving car in Britain today emits less

:45:12.:45:14.

pollution than a stationary one did in the 1970s.

:45:15.:45:17.

No wonder progressive Liberalism is in such a funk.

:45:18.:45:19.

Cheer up, the world really is getting better.

:45:20.:45:28.

And to discuss this further we're joined by Guardian

:45:29.:45:30.

Are you in a progressive funk? No, not at all! Is an odd day as Donald

:45:31.:45:48.

Trump is getting inaugurated tomorrow. Douglas is a great

:45:49.:45:52.

politician because he is a great -- freethinker in wild terms. He has

:45:53.:45:58.

got his head in the clouds. He is a kind of right wing anarchist. You

:45:59.:46:03.

believe in no government, self organising. Where does that get us?

:46:04.:46:09.

I think I believe that what we do collectively together is better than

:46:10.:46:13.

anything we do as individuals on our own. I look at how this government

:46:14.:46:18.

has, in the last six years, dismantled huge part of government.

:46:19.:46:21.

You look at the NHS beginning to fall apart, something we were

:46:22.:46:28.

proudest of. Environmental health officers no longer really check on

:46:29.:46:32.

most restaurants. Things that we expect as a fundamental part of

:46:33.:46:35.

civilised society are being stripped away. Let's get a dialogue. Respond

:46:36.:46:46.

to that? When I was growing up, the right always seemed to be the doom

:46:47.:46:50.

mongers. They were represented by old buffers. The left were the

:46:51.:46:56.

people who wanted to build the new Jerusalem. I can't help thinking

:46:57.:47:00.

that the reason the left is in such an existential crisis is precisely

:47:01.:47:04.

because it sees change and improvement as some sort of decline.

:47:05.:47:08.

And I think Polly has illustrated that rather neatly. All of the

:47:09.:47:13.

change and improvements, grow from the left. They have brought us the

:47:14.:47:21.

things we must admire and value. What we do together as a society is

:47:22.:47:27.

what makes civilisation. You are against planning. When the left

:47:28.:47:33.

believed in an organised society, when they were truly liberal, they

:47:34.:47:37.

achieved huge change in the 19th century. But the liberal left has

:47:38.:47:43.

lost sight of the idea of humans as their own agents. It believes in

:47:44.:47:48.

blueprints. Whether that is socialism, environmentalism... They

:47:49.:47:53.

like to tell the rest of us what to do. You are one of the most

:47:54.:47:58.

ideological people, in an interesting way, in the House of

:47:59.:48:07.

Commons. You have a neoliberalism. We're not here to talk about your

:48:08.:48:16.

iss! We are here to look at your proposition that Mike is proposition

:48:17.:48:21.

that the left is in a funk because it is not going your way. Mr Trump

:48:22.:48:26.

is about to be inaugurated. The government in this country may be as

:48:27.:48:31.

bad as you say. It is also 17 points ahead in the polls. The French

:48:32.:48:35.

Socialist party is about to be wiped out. The Greek Socialist party has

:48:36.:48:40.

already been wiped out. That is why you are in a funk. I'm not in a funk

:48:41.:48:46.

but it is true, the ride is winning everywhere. We are in an

:48:47.:48:51.

extraordinary era. Who knows whether the right will sweep across Europe?

:48:52.:48:54.

We have crucial elections this year in France and Germany. We will get a

:48:55.:48:59.

better idea. I think it was so badly overreach itself that we will see

:49:00.:49:07.

people returning to the idea... The fixation we have now where people

:49:08.:49:12.

are used to choosing things for themselves is not going to be

:49:13.:49:18.

regarded as credible, I'm a politician and I can fix your public

:49:19.:49:22.

services. That model in the Netflix country we now live in is no longer

:49:23.:49:29.

viable. Self commissioning. Self pain for the NHS. Can we not going

:49:30.:49:36.

there for the moment? That is a wider discussion. Let me keep this

:49:37.:49:42.

discussion on the basis of the commission, who is unhappy and who

:49:43.:49:47.

isn't. You accused Polly's side of the argument of being gloomy,

:49:48.:49:52.

negative, putting things down. Hasn't the rise of Ukip comic indeed

:49:53.:49:56.

even the vote for Brexit, wasn't that partly the kind of

:49:57.:50:02.

atmosphere... Things aren't what they used to be? If we had allowed

:50:03.:50:10.

those people, and there are those -- people take that position, if we had

:50:11.:50:14.

allowed those people to run the referendum campaign, we would have

:50:15.:50:19.

lost 70-30. We offered the optimistic vision which we heard

:50:20.:50:23.

again today from Theresa May. You want to take back control. You are

:50:24.:50:31.

saying your -- no control, take all the controls of. You won on the idea

:50:32.:50:38.

of tighter controls. It was an authoritarian message. Not yours but

:50:39.:50:44.

the rest of your party. That's not what we said. If your scepticism had

:50:45.:50:49.

been that pessimistic, gloomy force, we would have been wiped out in the

:50:50.:50:53.

1980s. The fact that we won and build a new coalition... Let's not

:50:54.:51:04.

fight the referendum again! They said they didn't turn out in enough

:51:05.:51:08.

numbers for you to win. Mr Trump, does that put a smile on your face?

:51:09.:51:14.

I think I would have voted for the governor of New Mexico, the one who

:51:15.:51:18.

didn't know where Aleppo was, because he was the best of a bad

:51:19.:51:24.

bunch. I am a libertarian. Does Mr Trump put a smile on your face? A

:51:25.:51:29.

wouldn't have been my choice but America has voted for him. Let's see

:51:30.:51:38.

what happens. Do you have two... If your side is losing the argument on

:51:39.:51:45.

so many fronts at the moment, if in practice you are losing, do you have

:51:46.:51:49.

to wait for the other side to get in, make a mess of it and then come

:51:50.:51:56.

back? Are you waiting on that? It's never enough. One thing you said is

:51:57.:51:59.

absolutely right. You only ever win with an optimistic vision. You only

:52:00.:52:05.

ever win by saying you've got your new Jerusalem, I've got mine. My due

:52:06.:52:10.

-- my new Jerusalem is better than yours. That is the way all politics

:52:11.:52:15.

works. You have the fear of the dismantlement of the state on one

:52:16.:52:20.

side. People are losing services. We are seeing schools losing huge

:52:21.:52:24.

chunks of money per people as well as patients. I don't think people

:52:25.:52:28.

want that. I think they want a vision of something better. Things

:52:29.:52:33.

can only get better, as someone said. Things can only end, which is

:52:34.:52:39.

what is happening to this discussion.

:52:40.:52:39.

Now, there's little more than 24 hours until Donald Trump takes

:52:40.:52:43.

the presidential oath of office and assumes his role as the most

:52:44.:52:46.

As he takes on this awesome responsibility, journalists around

:52:47.:52:49.

the world are competing to land that exclusive interview.

:52:50.:52:51.

Well, one such reporter who has done just that is our

:52:52.:52:55.

Yes, he is among that elite group of hacks to have been granted some

:52:56.:53:02.

I know what you're thinking - this is a huge scoop

:53:03.:53:06.

Did I mention this interview was in 2014?

:53:07.:53:12.

Last week, Donald Trump revealed he uncharacteristicically said no

:53:13.:53:20.

Over the weekend I was offered $2 billion to do a deal

:53:21.:53:28.

in Dubai with a very, very, very amazing man,

:53:29.:53:32.

a great, great developer from the Middle East,

:53:33.:53:36.

Hussain, Damac, a friend of mine, great guy.

:53:37.:53:42.

But back in 2014, before Donald Trump was too busy to decline

:53:43.:53:47.

lucrative business opportunities in the United Arab Emirates,

:53:48.:53:51.

thanks to a deal with that great guy, Hussain Ali Sajwani,

:53:52.:53:54.

the CEC of Damac, the Trump family adorned billboards advertising

:53:55.:53:56.

an 18-hole golf course at the heart of a huge real estate

:53:57.:53:59.

development, billed as the Beverly Hills of Dubai.

:54:00.:54:04.

Well, Donald Trump drew us here all here to look

:54:05.:54:07.

at what he called his "vision" on an empty piece of land

:54:08.:54:10.

As a BBC reporter out there two-and-a-half years ago,

:54:11.:54:14.

I was invited to film and meet the man himself,

:54:15.:54:17.

as he played to the cameras with a 30-second journey

:54:18.:54:21.

fashion, at the Trump-branded multi-billion pound development.

:54:22.:54:25.

When we sat down together, I was keen find out how much

:54:26.:54:29.

the billionaire had personally invested in Dubai, after it had

:54:30.:54:31.

bounced back from a devastating financial crash five years earlier.

:54:32.:54:36.

I don't talk about how much I invest but I believe in Dubai

:54:37.:54:41.

and it's certainly something I would be very happy to invest in.

:54:42.:54:44.

Can you give us an indication of what you are dipping your toe in,

:54:45.:54:48.

your arm, half your body, something like that?

:54:49.:54:50.

Well, if you think about it, I have my name at stake also,

:54:51.:54:53.

After inaugurating this hole on this half-finished golf course

:54:54.:55:04.

in the middle of the desert, the impressively handicapped,

:55:05.:55:09.

soon-to-be septugenarian was so proud of his shot,

:55:10.:55:12.

he wanted the ball framed, so he asked his aide, Larry

:55:13.:55:14.

to search through the surrounding sand and find it.

:55:15.:55:18.

We should get that ball Larry, and frame it.

:55:19.:55:28.

But after all this glitz and glamour, Donald Trump was served

:55:29.:55:30.

up a curve ball by a reporter from Vice News at

:55:31.:55:33.

He side-stepped allegations that workers on this development

:55:34.:55:37.

So, I thought I'd try asking about it, but I,

:55:38.:55:41.

I'm trying to give you a very open-ended question,

:55:42.:55:46.

about workers' rights in this region, if there was something,

:55:47.:55:49.

a stand you would take or a vision that you'd have?

:55:50.:55:52.

I think he has been pretty clear on that.

:55:53.:55:54.

Let me answer a couple and we'll be done with it.

:55:55.:56:04.

Well, it's a big issue, I'm not making this up.

:56:05.:56:09.

I mean, this is something that everyone would want to ask

:56:10.:56:13.

the top businessman, like yourself, this has got

:56:14.:56:16.

to do with real estate, it is about construction.

:56:17.:56:18.

Well, just to put it in a very short form,

:56:19.:56:20.

I always like to see everybody treated well and I'm sure that's

:56:21.:56:23.

happening over in Dubai because the workers are so important

:56:24.:56:26.

to what we are doing and what everybody else

:56:27.:56:29.

is doing and I love to see people treated well.

:56:30.:56:32.

But one person he didn't think was treating the American

:56:33.:56:38.

people well, back in 2014, was President Barack Obama.

:56:39.:56:42.

We have a lack of leadership at the top and the President has not

:56:43.:56:45.

done a good job and a lot of people are agreeing, even his own people

:56:46.:56:49.

are agreeing that it has not worked out well for President Obama.

:56:50.:56:53.

Looking back, perhaps this was his first pitch for the job.

:56:54.:56:55.

The good news is we have tremendous potential and with the right leader,

:56:56.:56:59.

this country can turn around so quickly, it will be unbelievable.

:57:00.:57:02.

Eventually we'll get the right person.

:57:03.:57:07.

You don't want it to go too far down.

:57:08.:57:09.

But, eventually I think we'll get the right person and when we do,

:57:10.:57:12.

America's next President still talks about himself in the third person.

:57:13.:57:16.

Perhaps, in front of our very eyes, two-and-a-half years ago,

:57:17.:57:18.

Here is mark with Donald Trump at that interview. That is Ivanka Trump

:57:19.:57:40.

with him. Mark is not doing the films of sign, unlike some reporters

:57:41.:57:46.

who did. No names! Proper professionalism! Donald Trump once

:57:47.:57:54.

massive unfunded tax cuts, huge infrastructure programme, all of

:57:55.:57:56.

which will increase the deficit normally. -- enormously. None of

:57:57.:58:06.

that is on your agenda? I fear he is shifting from monetary stimulus to

:58:07.:58:10.

fiscal stimulus. I personally, if I were advising and I'm not, I would

:58:11.:58:14.

say that is unwise. The American state should live within its means.

:58:15.:58:19.

If it doesn't do that, it will go the way of all states that have

:58:20.:58:23.

lived beyond their means. Congress, the beauty of the American system is

:58:24.:58:27.

the separation of powers. Congress will have a say. I suspect his

:58:28.:58:33.

biggest obstacle will be Republican appointed judges and the Senate. We

:58:34.:58:35.

shall see. The One O'Clock News is starting

:58:36.:58:39.

over on BBC One now. I will be on BBC One

:58:40.:58:42.

with Michael Portillo, Jess Phillips, Quentin Letts,

:58:43.:58:44.

Anthony Seldon and Polish politician Radoslaw

:58:45.:58:46.

Sikorski from 11:45. And I'll be here at noon tomorrow,

:58:47.:58:48.

with all the big political stories of the day.

:58:49.:58:51.

Do join me then. Parents are facing an explosion in

:58:52.:58:53.

the number of children saying

:58:54.:59:06.

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