27/03/2017 Daily Politics


27/03/2017

Jo Coburn with the latest political news, interviews and debate. She is joined by Labour's Alison McGovern and Mark Field from the Conservatives.


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Transcript


LineFromTo

Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics at the start

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of what promises to be an historic week as Britain begins

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So what future awaits, both at home and abroad?

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One of Theresa May's first acts as Prime Minister was to meet

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Scotland's First Minister to try and agree a common

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They meet again later today but, as the relationship faces strain,

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Should Britain come out of the European customs union?

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Theresa May says she wants to be able to strike trade deals

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but could be open to some sort of associate membership.

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Does Brexit mean time is up for the so-called

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Journalist David Goodhart offers some advice for his fellow liberals.

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And, political history is often made after an exchange of letters.

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As Britain prepares to write to the EU we take a look at some

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All that in the next hour and with us for the whole

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of the programme today, the Conservative MP, Mark Field,

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First, the Prime Minister is in Scotland and will hold talks

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with First Minister Nicola Sturgeon this afternoon ahead

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of the triggering of Article 50 later this week.

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It's the first time the two have met since Ms Sturgeon

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announced plans for a second referendum on independence.

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The Prime Minister will use a speech in the next hour to say she wants

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to strengthen the UK rather than allow ties to become

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Our Scotland correspondent James Shaw is in Glasgow.

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What's the reception going to be like this time? And in fact,

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relations between the two women? It's going to be a very interesting

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meeting, I think, isn't it this afternoon? Perhaps one metric we

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would like at is how long will the meeting take? Because we know that

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they have totally different agendas. On the one hand we're going to hear

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Theresa May talking about strengthening the United Kingdom,

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bringing the Four Nations together to become a force in the wider world

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and Ond, we know that Nicola Sturgeon wants to talk about a

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second independence referendum. There will be a debate in the

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Scottish Parliament tomorrow on exactly that subject and Theresa May

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has said that is not on the table at the moment. She won't talk about a

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second independence referendum. So how long will the talks actually go

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on for? Yes, it could be a very short meeting and a frosty one

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between the two of them if neither is prepared to give any ground. Do

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we know on the logistics front is there going to be a handshake

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outside? Are they going to have joint press conferences? We don't

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know those details as yet. I think this has been set-up somewhat at

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last minute. So in fact the arrangements still seem to be

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underway. Earlier on this way this morning. Perhaps one thing they

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might be able to talk about constructively is the repatriation

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of powers from Brussels when Brexit happens. We know that Nicola

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Sturgeon would like to see powers over agriculture and fisheries

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coming back to Scotland and Theresa May might be willing to talk about

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that. Not that she will make any specific commitments just now, but

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it's something that is likely at least they will be able to discuss

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that. James, Shaw, thank you. Joining me now is the SNP's Europe

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spokesman, Stephen Gethins. Welcome back to the Daily Politics.

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Thank you. Picking up on James Shaw's point about the repatriation

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of powers on fishing and farming. Were that to happen, would that

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satisfy you and your colleagues in the SNP and would there be no need

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for a second independence referendum? Well, the powers that

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the Scottish Government were looking for were set out before Chris time

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when the First Minister set out a compromise dealment we are 48 hours

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before the triggering of Article 50. It is good that the Prime Minister

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is travelling to Scotland, it always is, of course, but it is pretty last

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minute given that they have had the compromise deal since before

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Christmas which set out some of the powers the Scottish Government were

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looking for to make the compromise work. If she offers the powers would

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you call off a second independence referendum? Amber Rudd and the Home

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Secretary said we wouldn't be getting some powers. It will be

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interesting to see if there has been a U-turn. The powers would have to

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be substantial. The answer is yes, if they are substantial? The

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compromise deal the Scottish Government have set out and they

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said they will put the independence referendum to one side if the

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compromise was met. The ball is firmly in the UK Government's court

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especially since that document was more detailed than anything the UK

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Government published so far. . That document will have been read by the

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Prime Minister and her Government ministers, I'm sure it has, and they

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have had time to look at it. Yes. And if there is a compromise, as you

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say, if you don't get everything that you ask for, but you get some

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of what you asked for, on important areas like fishing and farming,

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would that be enough to say there won't be a second independence

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referendum? Well, the First Minister has been very clear, if there is a

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compromise they could put the referendum for a period of time to

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one side and we can try and make that compromise work. However, we

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are in a stage where just 48 hours beforehand, they have had the

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document for three mounts months. You have made that point? I'm not

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optimistic. But I hope I will be proved wrong. She has called your

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bluff. She said no to a second independence referendum now? She has

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clearly called the bluff of her Conservative colleagues as well.

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Ruth Davidson said she should not stand in the way of a second

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referendum. It also said that it would do something about a second

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independence referendum if there was an overwhelming support for it. Can

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you give me an example of a poll that shows a majority of the

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Scottish people agree with you that there should be another referendum

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before March 2019? There is only one way to find out what the will of the

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people is. The Scottish Government was elected on more votes than any

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Government has been elected in a constituency... That's not my

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question. I want a poll on the basis of basis of what you promised as a

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party. It was the SNP who said it was a once-in-a-lifetime poll. A few

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of them, you know, look at the Herald, 56% oppose a pre-Brexit

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referendum. If you look at the Scottish Daily Mail, 46% oppose a

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pre-Brexit referendum. There isn't within, is there? There isn't a poll

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that backs up your claim? You're looking at opinion polls there. The

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Scottish Government was lcted on a manifesto commitment. Now, here at

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Westminster, we've got a Government that is having great difficulty

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keeping to any of its manifesto commitments at the moment, be it the

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single market, be it over national insurance, you know, manifesto

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commitments are there to be tan serious will you and that's what the

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First Minister is doing and it is interesting that the Scottish

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Government was elected on an increased share of the vote, 47%,

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compared to 36% for the Tories and getting us into the mess that we're

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in at the moment. What's the point of Theresa May going to visit Nicola

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Sturgeon if she hasn't got anything to say? If the implication from

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Number Ten it will be a short meeting. She rejected this idea of a

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second independence referendum. It isn't exactly a charm offensive, is

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it? On the contrary. I think Theresa May made it plain the precious union

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is close to her heart. She doesn't like the idea of playing games with

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politics and I don't think she would have been there had it not been for

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Nicola Sturgeon bouncing the British Government only two weeks ago into

:08:22.:08:24.

this idea there should be another referendum. It was in the manifesto.

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Well, I think, it is interesting. One thing to watch for Theresa May

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she is, there are a lot of politicians who try and per port

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them to be manikelean. By going today, she is going to say, "Right,

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come on, you tell us what you'd like to see in this Brexit." She had the

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document for months! It is not about having the documentment two weeks

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ago, Nicola Sturgeon bounced us all into the idea. What was the

:08:55.:08:57.

surprise? What was the surprise? There was a great surprise. It was

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in the manifesto. Did you not read it? It is nothing to do with reading

:09:03.:09:07.

manifestos. We got through a Brexit Bill that had gone through the UK

:09:08.:09:12.

Parliament, both Houses of Parliament, at which point we were

:09:13.:09:17.

about to trigger Brexit, it might have well happened had it not been

:09:18.:09:19.

for Nicola Sturgeon playing politics. What Theresa May is going

:09:20.:09:23.

to do is say, "Right, you tell us what you'd like. Are you just

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playing politics? Or can we add something substantive into that

:09:30.:09:34.

Brexit letter?" Is Labour's voice clear on this issue or are you just

:09:35.:09:38.

spectators? Labour's voice has been clear. What is it? About protecting

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our constituents jobs and for me personally that means the customs

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union and the single market and I have got to be honest, I disagree

:09:46.:09:49.

with Mark about this idea of Theresa May as a clever tactician because

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she... I was saying she was authentic about where she stands on

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the union. So where she stands on the United Kingdom might be quite

:09:58.:10:06.

clear, but what she is doing is effectively cow to youing to Ukip

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which caused the SNP to react in the way they have. We are caught between

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two nationalisms, neither of which is good for our country. What's

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Labour's position on a second independence referendum. Jeremy

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Corbyn said it would be fine for the SNP to hold a second referendum? I'm

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with Kezia Dugdale on this. And she is the leader of Scottish Labour?

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Who said that Scottish people don't want one. So Jeremy Corbyn was

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wrong? Look, in the end, it is up to the Scottish people to decide, but

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absolutely clearly, Scottish people don't want another referendum. It

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was divisive. We experienced that division of our country during the

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EU referendum and stirred up in certain parts, there was a lot of

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ill feeling in both of those referendums and I don't think we

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want to go back there at a time when people are worrying about their

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jobs, when wages haven't gone up, these are the issues that politics

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should be deciding over, not stirring up division. I agree with

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Alison. What this realistically means is wait until the next

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Holyrood electionsment if there is a manifesto commitment after then to

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go for a further referendum, then fine, the Scottish people will have

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spoken. That's after 2021. I am know not sure what you have got against

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manifesto commitments. I'm stonished that you're telling us that the UK

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Government was so unprepared, given that this was in the manifesto, this

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was a compromise, this tripped up Theresa May's Article 50 process.

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That's an astonishing thing. Look, this shouldn't have come as a

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surprise. Can I just say, Stephen, isn't your whole argument for a

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pre-Brexit referendum based on a false assumption? Namely that you

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could leave the UK, and stay in the EU which is not guaranteed in fact,

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it is very unlikely to happen. Have you spoken to any Spanish

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politicians recently? A member was on BBC Scotland last week talking

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about it. That's a false assumption that you can leave the UK and stay

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in the EU... Look, Jo, on that question, I'd be glad to. Scotland

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is a country that's been a member of the European Union for 40 years. It

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has met the rules that you need to meet. It is a country whereby I've

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EU rights. We are net contributors to the European Union... You will

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have to join the queue like any new independent country? There is no

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such thing as a queuement Turkey joined the queue before half of the

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current members ever did. There is no such thing as a queue.

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Scotland... Who has told you in the EU that a promise that Scotland

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would automatically remain a member of the EU? Look, Juncker, Michael

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Martin, they have said that Scotland's voice needs to be

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listened to. That's not the same, is it? Scotland's voice needs to be

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listened to. OK. Thank you. I'm so unused to politicians stopping

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immediately when I say that. Stephen Gethins, thank you very much. You'll

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get him back. Of course! Now, it's time for our daily quiz.

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As if helping to take Britain out of the European Union wasn't enough,

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Nigel Farage and Aaron Banks, the self-styled "bad boys

:13:22.:13:24.

of Brexit", have set their sights on assisting another major

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constitutional overhaul. A) Advising Nicola Sturgeon over

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Scottish indepedence? B) Splitting California

:13:29.:13:32.

into East California C) Helping Catalonia

:13:33.:13:34.

to break away from Spain? Or D) Working with the Dalai Lama

:13:35.:13:42.

to have more autonomy for Tibet? At the end of the show,

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Mark and Alison will give Don't worry Alison you've got the

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whole show to think about it! BP Theresa May has insisted that Brexit

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offers an opportunity for the UK She maintains that leaving the EU

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isn't just about a new phase of international diplomacy,

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but it would be a "moment of change" to create "a stronger economy

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and fairer society". Now, the other parties are also

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outlining their vision for the Brexit negotiations

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and what the UK might look Both the Lib Dems and the Greens say

:14:13.:14:14.

they want a referendum on the terms of the deal the Government agrees

:14:15.:14:23.

with the EU and the public Now, this morning, Ukip

:14:24.:14:26.

have outlined their That the Government should have full

:14:27.:14:29.

control over immigration. That the UK should have full

:14:30.:14:45.

control over our waters, And that there should be no

:14:46.:14:48.

bill for the divorce. While, finally, the whole

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Brexit process should be By coincidence, Labour also have six

:15:03.:15:04.

tests for the Brexit negotiations. The party says the deal should

:15:05.:15:14.

ensure a strong and collaborative Perhaps most significantly,

:15:15.:15:17.

the party wants a deal with the EU to offer the "exact same benefits"

:15:18.:15:25.

the UK has from the single market It demands the "fair

:15:26.:15:28.

management of migration", which would mean the end

:15:29.:15:32.

of free movement. Labour also say the Brexit deal

:15:33.:15:35.

should defend workers' rights and protections

:15:36.:15:38.

as well as protecting It should, Labour say,

:15:39.:15:40.

be a deal that delivers for all regions and nations

:15:41.:15:45.

of the UK. Speaking in London this morning,

:15:46.:15:50.

the Shadow Brexit Secretary, Keir Starmer, said his party

:15:51.:15:52.

would be holding the Government to account on whether any deal

:15:53.:15:55.

with the EU meets Labour's tests. I don't underestimate

:15:56.:16:01.

the difficulty of the task the Prime Minister is about

:16:02.:16:03.

to embark on. On the contrary, I know it is going

:16:04.:16:06.

to be fiendishly difficult. But the stakes are high

:16:07.:16:09.

and the Prime Minister's approach Today, I've set out the values that

:16:10.:16:15.

should drive Britain's response to Brexit and the tests Labour

:16:16.:16:23.

will set for the final Brexit deal. Failure to meet these tests

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will affect how Labour votes Let me be clear - Labour will not

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support a deal that fails to reflect core British values and the six

:16:32.:16:39.

tests I've set out. And I'm joined now by

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the Ukip MEP Gerard Batten and the Liberal Democrat MP Alistair

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Carmichael. Welcome to both of you. First of

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all, Mark Field, the Prime Minister will trigger article 50 on Wednesday

:16:58.:17:01.

and she has set out what she has called an ambitious timetable to

:17:02.:17:05.

negotiate both the divorce settlement and a new trade deal with

:17:06.:17:08.

the EU within two years. Do you agree with the Foreign Secretary

:17:09.:17:11.

that it would be perfectly OK if the UK exits without a deal? I think

:17:12.:17:15.

it's far too early to make a judgment on this. We are at the

:17:16.:17:19.

beginning of the process. But she has said very clearly, Theresa May,

:17:20.:17:25.

no deal would be better better than a bad deal. And I think that is

:17:26.:17:28.

right. Both Houses of Parliament have endorsed that, that is the

:17:29.:17:32.

starting point. I think it's fair to say, many of us on all sides of the

:17:33.:17:37.

House, in my heart of hearts, I was a Remain person, for emotional and

:17:38.:17:41.

geopolitical reasons, I wanted to stay in the European Union, I always

:17:42.:17:45.

felt the comic arguments were more balanced. But equally I think we

:17:46.:17:49.

have to look at this in a positive and optimistic light. This is high

:17:50.:17:55.

diplomacy. This is going to be... High-stakes? There are going to be

:17:56.:18:00.

high-stakes as well. Alison McGovern, Labour wants a

:18:01.:18:05.

transitional arrangement, so that there is no cliff edge, as you would

:18:06.:18:11.

call it, if there was no deal. And that would get a bit more time for a

:18:12.:18:15.

final deal. That there will be those who think that is a license for

:18:16.:18:21.

negotiations to drag on because Brexit delayed would-be Brexit

:18:22.:18:26.

denied? I disagree with Mark about what he said about the Prime

:18:27.:18:30.

Minister saying no deal is better than a bad deal. No deal is an

:18:31.:18:35.

incredibly bad deal. WTO terms are not good for our country. I

:18:36.:18:40.

represent people who make things, manufacturing workers. Why wouldn't

:18:41.:18:45.

WTO rules be a good thing, in your mind? As David Davies explained,

:18:46.:18:49.

because of the tariffs, which he explained... Which could be quite

:18:50.:18:55.

low and agreed fairly easily? Could be, but there's a massive risk

:18:56.:19:01.

implied by that. And these are my constituents' jobs. It is all very

:19:02.:19:08.

well to say we must be positive. Sure, but let's not kid ourselves

:19:09.:19:11.

that there is this amazing deal waiting to be had, when all of our

:19:12.:19:15.

European partners are waiting for us to show any compromise or approach

:19:16.:19:19.

of working together with them, which so far the British government hasn't

:19:20.:19:26.

done. We've been too busy in my view kowtowing to, I'm afraid, the Ukip

:19:27.:19:31.

view of the world not enough offering, as Keir Starmer said,

:19:32.:19:35.

cooperation. The reason why a transitional deal is important is

:19:36.:19:38.

because it will keep business going, it will keep people in employment. A

:19:39.:19:42.

deal could take a long time, up to a decade, so we must make sure that we

:19:43.:19:48.

have provided a low-risk environment for business to get on with its job.

:19:49.:19:51.

Today, your party has said that Brexit should be done and dusted

:19:52.:19:56.

completely by the end of 2019. But we are talking about unpicking 40 or

:19:57.:20:03.

so years of treaties and agreements that were covering thousands of

:20:04.:20:07.

different areas - aviation, medical research, university grants... Isn't

:20:08.:20:13.

the reality, the way that Alison McGovern and Mark Field have

:20:14.:20:16.

described it, that we're going to be half in the EU and half out for many

:20:17.:20:21.

more years? What Ukip is saying is that we wouldn't go down the article

:20:22.:20:25.

50 road anyway. If we try to renegotiate every piece of 170,000

:20:26.:20:30.

bits of legislation, we would be here till kingdom come. Let me

:20:31.:20:34.

explain what we should do. Our tests are, for the Government Ahzeemah

:20:35.:20:38.

they have said they are taking this route, what we would do, if we were

:20:39.:20:45.

into control, would be to repeal the European Communities Act 1972, as a

:20:46.:20:50.

first step, not a last step, and then we would put ourselves in

:20:51.:20:54.

control of the process. So we would in effect still be part of the EU?

:20:55.:20:58.

No. We would say that we are no longer members of the EU under our

:20:59.:21:02.

law. We would take emergency action on trade, immigration... What would

:21:03.:21:06.

that do to the economy in that instance? Well, what you could do in

:21:07.:21:12.

an afternoon, not two years, is to say to the European Union, we want

:21:13.:21:16.

to continue in tariff free trade, and so do you because it is in your

:21:17.:21:20.

interest. You can have three of your four freedoms, goods, services and

:21:21.:21:25.

capital, but not people. Is Mrs Merkel going to say to the German,

:21:26.:21:29.

new fracture is, we have got to put tariffs on imports to the UK?

:21:30.:21:34.

Alistair Carmichael, what is your response? This is just in Lala land.

:21:35.:21:41.

In one afternoon, Ukip are going to live a farmers and fishermen in my

:21:42.:21:46.

constituency paying tariffs of up to about 20% to export into the single

:21:47.:21:50.

market, which is overwhelmingly our biggest single market. Banks and

:21:51.:21:57.

financial services companies in Mark's constituency, they all depend

:21:58.:22:00.

on being part of the single market to keep their headquarters here. The

:22:01.:22:05.

thing is, we are talking about one market, the constituent parts of the

:22:06.:22:10.

EU that remain have got another 26 that they can look to. Do you think

:22:11.:22:14.

it will last longer than two years to get this done and dusted? I think

:22:15.:22:18.

realistically we have to expect that it will. The Government has

:22:19.:22:23.

absolutely no idea... If that is the case, that it will take longer than

:22:24.:22:27.

two years, and if Alison McGovern is right that there could be all sorts

:22:28.:22:30.

of difficulties along the way, wouldn't it be better to cut and run

:22:31.:22:34.

now? You see, I would not start from here anyway. Sure, but if we enter

:22:35.:22:40.

into... What you're talking about is how to make a bad situation and make

:22:41.:22:47.

it worse. Or even make it, the worst possible situation. We've got to try

:22:48.:22:51.

and negotiate the best deal we possibly can, we've got to look at

:22:52.:22:55.

the future interest of our industries and jobs right across the

:22:56.:22:59.

United Kingdom. But just pretending that context problems have some

:23:00.:23:04.

simple solution that you can fix in an afternoon, almost beggars belief.

:23:05.:23:08.

It cannot be as easy as you have said, otherwise they would be

:23:09.:23:13.

looking at it. They don't want to leave anyway, Mrs May does not want

:23:14.:23:17.

to leave. It is all about delay and delay. All of this stuff about

:23:18.:23:21.

tariffs, it's a two-way street. They sell us far more than we sell them.

:23:22.:23:26.

Why would they want to put tariffs on? Let's talk about the tariffs.

:23:27.:23:31.

Let's talk about the deal that can be done. Labour say they want the

:23:32.:23:39.

exact same benefits as we currently have as members of the single market

:23:40.:23:44.

and the customs union - how is that possible, to have the exact same

:23:45.:23:47.

benefits? I think Keir Starmer is setting the right test. If that is a

:23:48.:23:52.

test, then the UK is probably going to fail it? It's the right test

:23:53.:23:57.

because the single market matters to us all. That characterisation, that

:23:58.:24:02.

we make stuff here and we trade it with people who make stuff in other

:24:03.:24:06.

countries, that's not how manufacturing works these days. We

:24:07.:24:09.

have got high value chains with goods made across borders, not

:24:10.:24:13.

within borders. The idea that you could sort out customs arrangements

:24:14.:24:17.

for high-value manufacturing like that in an afternoon, that is an

:24:18.:24:20.

insult to my constituents and their jobs. And I would ask you, next time

:24:21.:24:25.

you come up with nonsense like that, to think about the impact of that on

:24:26.:24:30.

people who work in my constituency, who make goods across borders, not

:24:31.:24:34.

within them, and need a much better attitude from the British

:24:35.:24:37.

government. What happens if we haven't got an arrangement which is

:24:38.:24:41.

agreed with the EU, when goods are going to be exported into the EU and

:24:42.:24:45.

they want to have custom officials at the borders to check the

:24:46.:24:48.

standards, the regulations of those goods, and maybe the French official

:24:49.:24:53.

only rocks up on a Monday and Tuesday, and you arrive on a

:24:54.:24:56.

Wednesday, what will that do to business? First of all, if they have

:24:57.:25:00.

declined our offer of tariff free trade... I'm not talking about

:25:01.:25:04.

tariffs, I'm going on Alison McGovern's point, which is the

:25:05.:25:10.

nontariff barriers, the things like the standardisation that currently

:25:11.:25:13.

exists as part of the EU, how would you deal with that? Part of the

:25:14.:25:17.

offer that we can make is that we continue on exactly the same terms

:25:18.:25:21.

regarding trade. If they refuse that, and we go on WTO, then we

:25:22.:25:26.

would be in the same position as China, Canada, Australia, New

:25:27.:25:29.

Zealand and the other countries that import and export with the European

:25:30.:25:32.

Union. So we will be in a worse position than we are at the moment.

:25:33.:25:37.

The biggest traders with the EU are countries like China... You're

:25:38.:25:43.

trying to say that you will put us in a worse position than the one we

:25:44.:25:47.

are in at the moment as part of the single market is. That's what

:25:48.:25:50.

matters. Let me just come back to this, Mark Field, about the exact

:25:51.:25:56.

same benefits. Because Labour have made this statement today but David

:25:57.:26:00.

Davis made a similar statement, when he said, I want a deal for

:26:01.:26:03.

frictionless trade, Theresa May said those words, and... It is a nearly

:26:04.:26:09.

impossible task, isn't it? No, in some sectors, that will work. When

:26:10.:26:14.

Theresa May spoke about the idea of no deal, it was to get a sense of

:26:15.:26:18.

clarity and certainty, that that is the baseline. Obviously, there are

:26:19.:26:23.

going to be sectors and parts of the colour me where we will be expecting

:26:24.:26:27.

to get considerably more. I think what is interesting, and it is

:26:28.:26:30.

something which perhaps my Brexiteer friends in the Tory party do not

:26:31.:26:34.

want to hear too much of, but it is, taking all of this legislation onto

:26:35.:26:39.

the British statute book, I bet a minuscule ocean of that will have

:26:40.:26:42.

been appealed within ten years. In other words, we're going to be

:26:43.:26:46.

taking on quite a lot of that legislation, not least because a lot

:26:47.:26:49.

of it we were at the forefront of putting into play. And also, and

:26:50.:26:53.

this is why this will be a long-term negotiation... Be on the two years?

:26:54.:26:59.

No, we must be out within the two years because we do not want the

:27:00.:27:03.

next general election to be a proxy second referendum. But we have all

:27:04.:27:06.

just been saying that it will take longer than that? No, we will be

:27:07.:27:10.

out. But there will be a lemons which will take longer. And I have a

:27:11.:27:15.

strong sense that there will be at a killer sectors where it will be in

:27:16.:27:22.

Britain's interest, and in the EU's interests, on biotechnology and

:27:23.:27:24.

pharmaceutical is, that we will be at the table, helping to look at the

:27:25.:27:29.

regulations which can then be incorporated straight into British

:27:30.:27:33.

law. I think that will get around many of the concerns that you have.

:27:34.:27:37.

But we are where we are, let's make it work. Alistair Carmichael, you

:27:38.:27:42.

want another referendum? I want a referendum on the deal when it is

:27:43.:27:45.

done. But that is really just another referendum? It is not, it is

:27:46.:27:51.

on the deal. We have had a referendum which said, we are

:27:52.:27:54.

leaving. It gave us a departure, it did not give us a destination. David

:27:55.:27:59.

Davis, not that long ago, was proposing exactly the same sort of

:28:00.:28:03.

thing. So just tell me, for the Liberal Democrats, if you say it is

:28:04.:28:07.

on the final deal, weaving the public the final say, in your mind,

:28:08.:28:11.

as a party, what is the ideal relationship with the EU

:28:12.:28:15.

post-Brexit, if, as you say, it is only on the final deal, you have

:28:16.:28:18.

accepted that Brexit is going to happen, how will it be any

:28:19.:28:24.

different? What we are prioritising above everything else is mentorship

:28:25.:28:29.

of the single market because that is where our economic interests lie,

:28:30.:28:32.

especially in the globalised economy. We can't turn the clock

:28:33.:28:36.

back to 1950. You have to be honest with people and say, that does mean

:28:37.:28:39.

that there have got to be compromises about the way in which

:28:40.:28:44.

people move across the boundaries. For Gerard Batten to say, you just

:28:45.:28:48.

can't have that, that's how you end up in the territory where you get no

:28:49.:28:52.

deal. You lost your only MP at the end of last week, or over the

:28:53.:28:55.

weekend, and your only elected voice in Parliament, so Ukip MEPs will

:28:56.:29:02.

soon be made redundant, how do you expect to influence Brexit? You say

:29:03.:29:06.

that, the important vote on the final deal will not be in

:29:07.:29:09.

Westminster, it will be the one in Brussels, because they will have the

:29:10.:29:13.

first vote, and they can reject it, in which case, we are all back to

:29:14.:29:16.

the drawing board in another two years' time. And that is a good

:29:17.:29:19.

point at which to stop this discussion.

:29:20.:29:21.

We know that the Government intends to take us out

:29:22.:29:23.

Theresa May said she was open to some sort of associate arrangement.

:29:24.:29:29.

This is what she had to say in January.

:29:30.:29:46.

I want Britain to be able to negotiate its own trade agreements.

:29:47.:29:51.

But I also want the referee trade with Europe and cross-border trade

:29:52.:29:55.

there to be as frictionless as possible. That means I do not want

:29:56.:29:58.

Britain to be part of the common commercial policy and I do not want

:29:59.:30:01.

us to be bound by the common external tariff. These are the

:30:02.:30:06.

elements of the customs union that prevent us from striking our own

:30:07.:30:09.

competence of trade agreements with other countries. But I do want us to

:30:10.:30:14.

have a customs agreement with the EU. Whether that means we must reach

:30:15.:30:22.

a completely new customs agreement, become an associate member of the

:30:23.:30:26.

customs union in some way, or remain a signatory to some elements of it,

:30:27.:30:28.

I hold no preconceived position. We're joined now by Henry Newman

:30:29.:30:31.

of the Open Europe think-tank which has launched a report today

:30:32.:30:34.

calling for the UK to pursue a fully independent trade policy

:30:35.:30:37.

outside the customs union. Welcome to the programme just for

:30:38.:30:44.

you, Theresa May does not go far enough, does she? Her clean break

:30:45.:30:48.

isn't hard enough for you, you don't even want associate membership with

:30:49.:30:59.

the customs union, is that correct? We're convinced having look at the

:31:00.:31:02.

evidence that we need to be clear that we need to get out of the

:31:03.:31:06.

customs union entirely. Right. That's the best way to maximise the

:31:07.:31:08.

opportunities from leaving the European Union. Under your plan, we

:31:09.:31:12.

leave the customs union with the rest in 2019? Yes. There is a

:31:13.:31:16.

possibility of a transition and that's a separate question. We

:31:17.:31:19.

should be out of the customs union enturl. No half-way in, half-way

:31:20.:31:25.

out. No deal. No Turkish-style deal. Is there a logic to that plan? There

:31:26.:31:30.

is a logic to all the plans. But it is too soon to say we should write

:31:31.:31:34.

off having at least the short-term being full members of the customs

:31:35.:31:37.

union and indeed then aspiring to the sort of arrangement that Theresa

:31:38.:31:40.

May made clear in that clip we have just heard. The reason I say that,

:31:41.:31:45.

actually a transition deal will be incredibly difficult to negotiate

:31:46.:31:48.

over the short time period and it may well be that we need to have an

:31:49.:31:53.

off-the-shelf option. The obvious off-the-shelf option doesn't apply

:31:54.:31:56.

to services in the way it does to goods, but it is to have a customs

:31:57.:31:59.

union arrangement and the thing about the customs union above all,

:32:00.:32:02.

you know, it could be very, very difficult along the lines that Jo

:32:03.:32:06.

pointed out earlier on in the programme, if you have a situation

:32:07.:32:10.

where there is a concern about the country of origin, on goods, this

:32:11.:32:14.

could be pretty nightmarish for many of our exporters if we don't get it

:32:15.:32:17.

right which is one of the reasons that Theresa May has left open the

:32:18.:32:20.

option as part of the negotiation. Right, hang on. Hang on. There is

:32:21.:32:25.

one thing on trade deals we need to get. Politicians love trade deals.

:32:26.:32:30.

Bureaucrats love them and civil servants love them. Get on and do

:32:31.:32:33.

trade and one of the things we have seen with the Trump administration

:32:34.:32:37.

in many ways has been the idea of a can do attitude. You can't do the

:32:38.:32:46.

trade deals until we've left the EU? There is never a country that we

:32:47.:32:51.

haven't done a trade deal with. Half in, half out, what's wrong with

:32:52.:32:57.

that? We all it the worst of all worlds. Why? You are unable to take

:32:58.:33:02.

the opportunities that leaving would entail. It is not just about signing

:33:03.:33:05.

trade deals. They are important, but using them can be too bureaucratic

:33:06.:33:09.

for business. If you have leave, you are able to reset your tariffs

:33:10.:33:13.

externally with the WTO, we would be able to lower all our tariffs, not

:33:14.:33:17.

just the tariffs through a trade deal. We are concerned that a second

:33:18.:33:26.

torial trade deal would be legally challengeable. Happens if you come

:33:27.:33:31.

out of the customs union in the way you're describing? Would there have

:33:32.:33:34.

to be any agreement between the EU and the UK? Well, let's say first of

:33:35.:33:38.

all there will be some costs of us leaving. How big are the cost? There

:33:39.:33:42.

was a leaked report over the weekend reported by the Sunday Times which

:33:43.:33:47.

points at costs up to 24%. Those figures were produced as we see it

:33:48.:33:50.

by the Treasury before the referendum last year. But if they

:33:51.:33:54.

are lower at 20%, they are huge costs? It is lookly to be very low.

:33:55.:34:01.

Can I say one thing? We do a great deal of trade with countries which

:34:02.:34:06.

we are not in a Free Trade Agreement with, let alone the customs union.

:34:07.:34:13.

The single biggest trading partner the UK is the US. The problem is who

:34:14.:34:17.

this hits and where? We already know that the parts of the country that

:34:18.:34:22.

voted leave. Leave in the north of England will be hardest hit by

:34:23.:34:26.

Brexit. Why? Because it is those areas that are dependant on

:34:27.:34:29.

manufacturing. Now people will tell you that manufacturing is a

:34:30.:34:33.

relatively small part of our economy, but actually a lot of the

:34:34.:34:36.

service sector in the north as well depends on the manufacturing

:34:37.:34:41.

industry to sell into it. So what I regret very much is this idea that

:34:42.:34:47.

what's good for Britain is good for everybody, everywhere because people

:34:48.:34:50.

aren't thinking through the fact that saying yes, there will be costs

:34:51.:34:55.

to this as though there will be costs, but on the whole, people will

:34:56.:35:01.

gain. That's not true. Some people will bear the burden and others will

:35:02.:35:04.

not. So that's not fair. You agree there will be costs. You haven't

:35:05.:35:07.

agreed what the costs will be, but you don't agree with 24%? Do you

:35:08.:35:13.

accept outside the customs union will mean more paperwork for

:35:14.:35:16.

exporters like British manufacturers. Possibly. So it won't

:35:17.:35:21.

be frictionless. So Theresa May isn't in your mind going to have

:35:22.:35:25.

frictionless trade? Not perfectly frictionless trade. Let's take a

:35:26.:35:29.

step back and look broadly. We have efficient trade with our non-EU

:35:30.:35:34.

partners. We are starting from a very positive base. Sure. We need to

:35:35.:35:40.

make sure our systems are as good as they possibly can be so goods can

:35:41.:35:45.

travel freely. I'm sure everybody in Parliament and ministers will be

:35:46.:35:48.

paying attention to this. You have conceded that there are going to be

:35:49.:35:51.

costs. That it won't be frictionless. You have said there

:35:52.:35:54.

will be opportunities and there shouldn't be a second torial deal

:35:55.:35:59.

for the car industry and people working in various manufacturing

:36:00.:36:03.

outputs in your constituency. Leaving the customs union will

:36:04.:36:06.

challenge companies with complex supply chains is what you say in

:36:07.:36:09.

your report? Yes. You are talking about the car industry being hit

:36:10.:36:13.

which is worth ?72 billion a year and employs 170,000 people. Is it

:36:14.:36:18.

worth it? I think to take a step back again, the decision was taken

:36:19.:36:21.

to leave the EU. If we're going to leave the EU, we need to be clear

:36:22.:36:24.

what that actually means. You think staying in the single market,

:36:25.:36:28.

staying in the customs union is the same as not having left in the first

:36:29.:36:34.

place. I accept there will be costs. Even Nigel Farage said we could be

:36:35.:36:39.

like Norway in the mid-. Referendum. That's outside the customs union. So

:36:40.:36:45.

he said we could be like... Turkey. And these countries, you know,

:36:46.:36:50.

operate within, they have a way of operating with the single market

:36:51.:36:55.

which I'm assuming you would call half in, half out and that's the

:36:56.:37:01.

worst of all possible worlds. People were told trading arrangements would

:37:02.:37:04.

be Bradley the same. Here we are afterwards saying we need to rip it

:37:05.:37:09.

all up and start again. I'm not saying that at all. And go after

:37:10.:37:18.

some notions... So the EU has good customs co-operation with

:37:19.:37:22.

Switzerland and Canada. The new Canada trade deal... But that was

:37:23.:37:25.

with the EU. The EU already has systems in place. There are

:37:26.:37:33.

precedents. I'm optimistic this can be achieved. When we look then at

:37:34.:37:37.

Northern Ireland, do you also accept there would have to be a customs

:37:38.:37:41.

border? There would have to be some degree of border. We think that

:37:42.:37:45.

border could be minimised. There will have to be a border for goods.

:37:46.:37:49.

That's not the same as a border for people. We see don't see any reason

:37:50.:37:55.

why the free movement of people that long predates European or Irish

:37:56.:38:00.

succession. One of the reasons that Ireland joined in 1973 at the height

:38:01.:38:06.

of the troubles was a recognition of the Inter dependence between the two

:38:07.:38:09.

economies. A special deal will have to be done. We're going to have to

:38:10.:38:11.

stop it there. So, it's going to be a big week

:38:12.:38:15.

here in Westminster. Today marks the deadline

:38:16.:38:17.

for a new Northern Ireland power-sharing executive

:38:18.:38:21.

to be formed. The prospect of a second Scottish

:38:22.:38:24.

independence referendum could be back on the cards tomorrow

:38:25.:38:27.

as members of the Scottish Parliament vote on a new

:38:28.:38:29.

independence referendum. The debate was suspended last

:38:30.:38:32.

Wednesday in the wake The Prime Minister will trigger

:38:33.:38:34.

Article 50 on Wednesday by sending a letter to the European Council

:38:35.:38:43.

formally declaring the UK's intention to leave

:38:44.:38:45.

the European Union. The Government is expected

:38:46.:38:48.

publish a White Paper on the Great Repeal Bill

:38:49.:38:52.

on Thursday, laying out a plan to ensure EU law no longer applies

:38:53.:38:57.

in the UK after Brexit. The House of Commons will rise

:38:58.:39:03.

on Thursday for Easter recess, but the House of Lords will continue

:39:04.:39:06.

working until next week. On Friday, the NHS will set

:39:07.:39:12.

out its plans for the next And the Green Party will begin

:39:13.:39:15.

their Spring Conference in Liverpool, which will continue

:39:16.:39:18.

over the weekend. We're joined now by Tom Newton Dunn

:39:19.:39:20.

of The Sun and by the political Welcome both of you. Tom, we have

:39:21.:39:28.

been talking about it, actually, Northern Ireland. If a new power

:39:29.:39:32.

sharing deal is not agreed today, which looks highly likely, what

:39:33.:39:36.

happens next? New elections? No, I don't think so. I think the honest

:39:37.:39:40.

answer is not very much at all which is rather common for Northern

:39:41.:39:44.

Ireland politics. Not a load happens quickly. As I understand it James

:39:45.:39:49.

Brokenshire won't go straight to new elections which is within his right

:39:50.:39:53.

to order. The law actually says there has to be new elections within

:39:54.:39:57.

a reasonable period of time. So I'm told he will use that reasonable

:39:58.:40:01.

period of time to carry on talking to try and create a deal. It appears

:40:02.:40:06.

the Government's tactics in this is to try and deny Sinn Fein the oxygen

:40:07.:40:12.

of drama and mellow drama even that they are trying to create with

:40:13.:40:16.

Brexit and Article 50 this week and it is in Sinn Fein's interests who

:40:17.:40:20.

want a united Ireland to try and create the impression so the

:40:21.:40:23.

Government say, that everything is chaotic and everything is up in the

:40:24.:40:28.

air and they need to start considering dramatic new

:40:29.:40:30.

constitutional arrangements such as a referendum on uniting Ireland. The

:40:31.:40:33.

Government will do everything they can to avoid that. Jane, tomorrow

:40:34.:40:38.

SNPs will vote on a motion allowing the Scottish Government to open

:40:39.:40:40.

negotiations with Westminster on the timing of a fresh independence

:40:41.:40:44.

referendum. It's going to pass, do you think? It is. I mean the SNP

:40:45.:40:47.

together with the Greens have a majority over the other parties,

:40:48.:40:51.

Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems. Obviously this debate was happening

:40:52.:40:54.

last Wednesday when the terror attack happened. It has been delayed

:40:55.:41:01.

until tomorrow. And it is a fore gone conclusion, I think it will

:41:02.:41:04.

pass and the pressure is on for Wednesday and Theresa May. Not the

:41:05.:41:08.

best timing for the Prime Minister, bearing in mind that's the day she

:41:09.:41:11.

is triggering Article 50? Theresa May loves to be in control and loves

:41:12.:41:15.

having everything her own way. When this happened two weeks ago, when

:41:16.:41:19.

Nicola Sturgeon announced she wanted a second referendum, this completely

:41:20.:41:23.

blew Theresa May off course and it is right on the eve of her

:41:24.:41:27.

triggering Article 50. She is not going to like it, but she has to

:41:28.:41:34.

stand her ground. Time will be taken up, of course, with her writing that

:41:35.:41:39.

letter to the EU council. Will we learn anything new in the letter?

:41:40.:41:42.

Will the EU learn anything new bearing in mind she set out what she

:41:43.:41:47.

wants to achieve in the Lancaster House speech? I'm told there might

:41:48.:41:52.

be a few bits new. Some new language certainly and perhaps a little bit

:41:53.:41:56.

more detail on what the Government would like to see from Brexit, but

:41:57.:42:01.

substantially, no. We have to the greater part the strategy as laid

:42:02.:42:07.

out in Lancaster House on single market, customs union, security

:42:08.:42:10.

co-operation, etcetera. What will be interesting is, I think, actually

:42:11.:42:15.

how the EU respondment far less so the actual letter albeit, its

:42:16.:42:20.

historical importance. From 12.30 onwards on Wednesday, the ball goes

:42:21.:42:24.

from London to Brussels and it's the moment of maximum danger really for

:42:25.:42:27.

Theresa May as you know, you and Jane have been saying, she likes

:42:28.:42:30.

control. On Wednesday, she loses control. Suddenly, it is for someone

:42:31.:42:35.

else to respond to all this and the Government is therefore hostage or a

:42:36.:42:38.

victim potentially of what the rest of the 27 then come up and have to

:42:39.:42:43.

respond to her. The focus Jane will move on to the Great Repeal Bill

:42:44.:42:48.

which in your mind does that give MPs an opportunity to voice any

:42:49.:42:53.

concerns that they might have or try and oppose the progress of Brexit?

:42:54.:42:58.

Yes. I mean they have, MPs who are against Brexit anyway have been,

:42:59.:43:01.

have had plenty of opportunity and they will take it again on Thursday

:43:02.:43:06.

when the White Paper is published. It is unfortunate that the Henry

:43:07.:43:11.

eighth powers, we talked about control, Theresa May still has

:43:12.:43:15.

control in Parliament. She has these Henry VIII powers that she can take

:43:16.:43:19.

back regulations and laws from Brussels and introduce them into

:43:20.:43:22.

British law. That is where she still has control and there will be a huge

:43:23.:43:26.

fuss over whether that's going to be allowed and whether Theresa May will

:43:27.:43:29.

be allowed to do that. Thank you very much. Have a good week. Thank

:43:30.:43:30.

you. Thank you. Now, we're used to stark

:43:31.:43:36.

divisions in politics. Labour and Conservative,

:43:37.:43:38.

left-wing and right-wing, But with electoral upsets

:43:39.:43:39.

in democracies across the world recently exposing fundamental

:43:40.:43:43.

divides in how people view themselves, is it time

:43:44.:43:45.

for a new way of thinking? The writer David Goodhart thinks

:43:46.:43:47.

he's found the answer. The familiar divide in British

:43:48.:43:49.

politics between left and right has been partly eclipsed in the past

:43:50.:44:07.

generation or so by increasingly significant value divides,

:44:08.:44:12.

between the people that I call the people from anywhere

:44:13.:44:15.

and the people from somewhere. The people from anywhere tend to be

:44:16.:44:19.

highly-educated and mobile, They have achieved identities based

:44:20.:44:23.

on educational and career success, that makes them pretty

:44:24.:44:32.

comfortable, well, anywhere. Somewheres tend to be more rooted,

:44:33.:44:45.

less well-educated. They value familiarity and security,

:44:46.:44:49.

and they have what's called more ascribed identities,

:44:50.:44:54.

that means identities based more around groups and places,

:44:55.:44:58.

which often means that their sense of themselves can be more easily

:44:59.:45:03.

discomfited by rapid change. 40 years ago, British

:45:04.:45:07.

common sense was basically Then, over the last generation

:45:08.:45:10.

and more, anywhere common We anywheres care about the world

:45:11.:45:15.

but can be blinded by We've often run things

:45:16.:45:24.

in our own interests and called it Take freedom of

:45:25.:45:29.

movement, for example. If you're a commercial lawyer,

:45:30.:45:34.

you can go and work in Paris or Berlin for a couple of years,

:45:35.:45:37.

you're not competing for your job If you work in a food

:45:38.:45:40.

factory, you are. All of this has alienated a lot

:45:41.:45:46.

of people, and I don't mean bigots and xenophobes,

:45:47.:45:49.

I mean people I call decent populists, people who value national

:45:50.:45:51.

sovereignty and are wary Many of them stopped voting

:45:52.:45:53.

in national elections but took their chance in the Brexit

:45:54.:46:02.

referendum to say, enough, your anyway version of openness

:46:03.:46:05.

is not working for us. Not surprisingly, the Leave victory

:46:06.:46:08.

left many anywheres wondering what kind of country

:46:09.:46:11.

they really lived in. Finding a new settlement

:46:12.:46:16.

between the two tribes, one that reconciles anywheres

:46:17.:46:18.

and somewheres into a common national story, is the task for

:46:19.:46:20.

politics for the next generation. What is your remedy for bringing the

:46:21.:46:41.

two sides together? Well, I think the group I call anywheres, the

:46:42.:46:44.

people who have dominated our politics and indeed policy for the

:46:45.:46:49.

last generation and more, need to take more account of the priorities

:46:50.:46:54.

and intuitions of the people I call somewheres, more than 50% of the

:46:55.:47:01.

population. Anywheres are 20% to 25% of the population. Either way, I

:47:02.:47:05.

have invented these labels but I have not invented the box, they are

:47:06.:47:09.

there in the surveys. But how should they take account of it? Well, the

:47:10.:47:18.

Brexit vote represents one shift, it shifts us back in a certain

:47:19.:47:21.

direction, but we don't want to have the instability. If people feel that

:47:22.:47:24.

their voices are not heard in day-to-day politics, then you get

:47:25.:47:32.

these... People lash out, and you might describe at least some of the

:47:33.:47:36.

people who voted Brexit is doing that, frustrated that they felt

:47:37.:47:38.

their voices were not heard in day-to-day politics. In order to

:47:39.:47:42.

overcome that instability, we need to bring those voices into... Turn

:47:43.:47:49.

rolls into responsible politicians. But are you saying the passage of

:47:50.:47:53.

progress should in some way be slowed down, if you look at some of

:47:54.:47:59.

the issues that people tribute to your somewhere thesis, people not

:48:00.:48:02.

feeling part of what's going on in terms of politics, that somehow in

:48:03.:48:06.

terms of globalisation, for instance, that you should slow down

:48:07.:48:10.

the passage of change and time? I think that's a very, very narrow

:48:11.:48:13.

definition of progress. You're implying that what anywheres think

:48:14.:48:18.

is in itself automatically a good thing. But just look at what has

:48:19.:48:22.

happened in the last generation or two, in terms of the policy areas

:48:23.:48:27.

that are so important. The way in which we have massively expanded

:48:28.:48:30.

higher education, and largely ignored, at least until recently,

:48:31.:48:35.

vocational and technical training, closed down all the polytechnics and

:48:36.:48:40.

turned them into universities in 1992. Look at the so-called

:48:41.:48:44.

knowledge economy, the very phrase, it's fine for highly educated

:48:45.:48:48.

people, meanwhile we have acquired this hourglass labour market, and

:48:49.:48:52.

all of those meddling jobs that gave lots of people status and decent

:48:53.:48:56.

income so shrunk. Well, you've been in power under a Tory government and

:48:57.:49:01.

a coalition government, so, to some extent, you are the presenter,

:49:02.:49:04.

representing your constituency, as, no doubt, the anywheres, can you do

:49:05.:49:09.

something about all of this? There was a certain amount of controversy

:49:10.:49:13.

when Theresa May said at the party conference, said that the sense of

:49:14.:49:19.

rootless people and rootless companies, using the international

:49:20.:49:23.

tax system to ensure they did not pay too much tax... Occupy London

:49:24.:49:27.

took place in my constituency five or six years ago, and I remember

:49:28.:49:31.

saying then, it struck me that there were a lot of middle-class,

:49:32.:49:35.

instinctively Tory voting people, who felt the rules of global

:49:36.:49:38.

capitalism were skewed against them. It a slightly prodrug provocative

:49:39.:49:43.

thesis, obviously, but in many ways, I think Theresa May's agenda is a

:49:44.:49:49.

recognition that the whole Tony Blair, a little bit is is over, and

:49:50.:49:53.

there is a sense of... That's the .4 Labour, you have been the losers.

:49:54.:49:58.

Even if the Conservatives, as Mark said, had not taken enough into

:49:59.:50:02.

account the views of those sorts of people, it is Labour that is nowhere

:50:03.:50:06.

in the polls with the answers, it seems? In one sense, David's

:50:07.:50:11.

analysis, I agree about the impact of low wages for a long time.

:50:12.:50:16.

Constituents who voted leave, most of them voted remain but a

:50:17.:50:20.

significant number of them did Vote Leave, and they say things like, to

:50:21.:50:24.

get rid of David Cameron, or to get money for the NHS. People did want

:50:25.:50:28.

to kick back against what they thought was an unfair system. But in

:50:29.:50:32.

another way, I profoundly disagree with this analysis, firstly because

:50:33.:50:36.

it is just mad to separate people into two groups. I'm sure your

:50:37.:50:40.

analysis is not quite as stark as that, but I probably used to count

:50:41.:50:49.

as a somewhere somebody who was born and grew up in my constituency and

:50:50.:50:53.

represent all my family, and then I went to university, I became an

:50:54.:50:56.

anywhere. I would urge you to read my book. Like I say, I did not just

:50:57.:51:06.

invented these categories. They are there in the data. Everybody is an

:51:07.:51:09.

individual and we all have combinations of anywhere and

:51:10.:51:14.

somewhere, and there is a whole group of in between is. Isn't the

:51:15.:51:17.

problem that for far too long, people in politics have gone, but at

:51:18.:51:23.

the data, there is this interesting different groups, let's try and

:51:24.:51:27.

marshal these different groups? Instead of saying, most people are

:51:28.:51:30.

individuals, most people by and large want money in their pocket.

:51:31.:51:35.

Obviously, at people can be donated by people from a certain kind of

:51:36.:51:40.

background, including people from somewhere backgrounds who have been

:51:41.:51:44.

very upwardly mobile. We have national social contracts and we

:51:45.:51:47.

have disregarded them, particularly employers. We had 8000 construction

:51:48.:51:54.

apprenticeships last year. We are meant to be building millions of

:51:55.:51:57.

houses, what has been going on? And on that, we will leave it hanging.

:51:58.:52:01.

In politics, the pen is mightier than the sword.

:52:02.:52:03.

Theresa May certainly thinks so - she says that the letter triggering

:52:04.:52:06.

Article 50 will be "one of the most important documents"

:52:07.:52:08.

Our Ellie takes a look at some of the other contenders for

:52:09.:52:13.

# I'm gonna sit right down and write myself a letter...

:52:14.:52:23.

Theresa May has plenty of practice writing important correspondence.

:52:24.:52:26.

One of her first job as PM was to pen four handwritten letters

:52:27.:52:29.

of last resort to the commanders of Britain's nuclear submarines.

:52:30.:52:31.

We don't know exactly what they say, obviously, but basically,

:52:32.:52:33.

they contain orders on what to do if the Government has

:52:34.:52:36.

been "incapacitated" because Britain has been destroyed.

:52:37.:52:38.

And sticking with nuclear Armageddon, it's those important

:52:39.:52:42.

letters that saved the world during the Cuban missile crisis.

:52:43.:52:45.

The Soviet leader, Nikita Khrushchev, sent

:52:46.:52:48.

a telegram to the US offering to dismantle its Cuban missile bases

:52:49.:52:51.

if President Kennedy lifted its naval blockade

:52:52.:52:54.

on the island and promised not to invade Cuba.

:52:55.:52:58.

Then, he sent a second letter demanding the dismantling

:52:59.:53:02.

President Kennedy agreed publicly to the first letter,

:53:03.:53:07.

As with so many things in this life, less is more.

:53:08.:53:13.

When Labour lost the 2010 election, the then Chief Secretary

:53:14.:53:16.

to the Treasury, Liam Byrne, left a note to his successor that

:53:17.:53:19.

Mr Byrne meant it as a joke, but felt the weight of his words

:53:20.:53:29.

when they were repeatedly used to beat Labour over the head

:53:30.:53:32.

"Dear Chief Secretary, I'm afraid there is no money..."

:53:33.:53:35.

It's more than a decade since Prince Charles' black spider

:53:36.:53:37.

memos, so-called not because they were about creepy

:53:38.:53:40.

crawlies, but because of his handwriting skills.

:53:41.:53:44.

The letters he wrote privately to Labour ministers were published

:53:45.:53:47.

after a series of court cases and concerns by some

:53:48.:53:50.

critics that he was trying to influence government policy -

:53:51.:53:54.

This year sees the 100th anniversary of the Balfour declaration.

:53:55.:53:59.

Boris Johnson showed Israel's Prime Minister,

:54:00.:54:02.

Binyamin Netanyahu, around the room where it was written.

:54:03.:54:05.

The letter was the first significant declaration by a world power

:54:06.:54:08.

in favour of a Jewish national home in Palestine.

:54:09.:54:14.

We're joined now by the historian Kate Williams.

:54:15.:54:19.

Do you agree that the letter that will be sent trigger in Article 50

:54:20.:54:26.

will go down as the greatest in history, as Theresa May implies? I

:54:27.:54:30.

think it certainly will. Whether or not it's the greatest, I think we

:54:31.:54:34.

will see how final it was. A lot of the letters we were talking about in

:54:35.:54:38.

that VT, they change history Mr Love about four declaration, there was no

:54:39.:54:41.

going back after that, there was going to be an independent state for

:54:42.:54:46.

the Jewish people. Whether not Theresa May's letter will be able to

:54:47.:54:51.

be altered, which is of course what the Remains I'd want... But if the

:54:52.:54:56.

Ukip conditions are kept to, then it will be the most historic I think in

:54:57.:55:00.

recent British history. And they are still powerful, letters, aren't

:55:01.:55:06.

they? If you think we are operating in a digital age, politically,

:55:07.:55:13.

letters would still hold that much influence and sway? They do, and

:55:14.:55:16.

it's fascinating to read them. You can read the Kennedy-Khrushchev

:55:17.:55:21.

letters, and it is fascinating to think these two men, with so many

:55:22.:55:25.

lives hanging in the balance, are communicating with each other in

:55:26.:55:28.

this very polite way, dear Mr President... Although we think of

:55:29.:55:32.

the huge networks of power, sometimes it does come down to the

:55:33.:55:35.

communication between two individuals, in that case two men.

:55:36.:55:39.

Do you think letter will go down as one of the most important in

:55:40.:55:42.

history? You have touched on something, we live in this world of

:55:43.:55:46.

tweeting and texting and actually, letters are now few and far between.

:55:47.:55:53.

Can you remember how to write?! Scrawling away, spiderlike! One of

:55:54.:55:56.

the interesting things about history, whether it is political

:55:57.:56:00.

history or whatever, it is going to be so difficult to piece it together

:56:01.:56:04.

in the way that we were able to in the past from those primary sources.

:56:05.:56:08.

So much of it now is now done electronic live. So it will be an

:56:09.:56:11.

important letter from that regard. I have been to the cue archives, which

:56:12.:56:19.

are unbelievable, it is an amazing look back into history. In the

:56:20.:56:23.

future, people will be scouring over tweets and interpreting the language

:56:24.:56:26.

of a particular WhatsApp message or whatever. Food for thought! Letters

:56:27.:56:32.

obviously get people into trouble, and they are written there and

:56:33.:56:37.

remain for ever so. We touched on the Liam Byrne debtor at the time,

:56:38.:56:41.

when he said, there is no money left. It was left as a joke but he

:56:42.:56:46.

has said he regrets writing it! He really does. Sometimes a joke can

:56:47.:56:51.

fall flat! It was pretty disastrous and an easy thing for David Cameron

:56:52.:56:55.

to use in the campaign. I think we know now that all e-mails are not

:56:56.:56:59.

private, any of our e-mails could be used. Of course we saw even texts,

:57:00.:57:05.

with the example of the Surrey sweetheart deal being talked about

:57:06.:57:08.

by Mr Corbyn, for example. But we still sometimes think there is

:57:09.:57:13.

intimacy in a letter, a little note that you leave on the desk after you

:57:14.:57:17.

go, by gentlemen's agreement, which of course was not the case. But

:57:18.:57:25.

there is formality as well. They are intimate, but also terribly

:57:26.:57:29.

official? Yes. And I think they do mean more. For example, the Prince

:57:30.:57:33.

Charles letters, they do mean more than an e-mail because somebody has

:57:34.:57:38.

taken the effort to put pen to paper. I think that even though we

:57:39.:57:44.

are in a digital world, the biggest and most important things

:57:45.:57:47.

politically happen through letters. Any letters that you have written,

:57:48.:57:52.

that you regret? None that I regret. I would take Kate's point on board,

:57:53.:58:00.

some of them you can reread with any mail, which you cannot with a

:58:01.:58:04.

letter. I like the idea of a letter, handwritten in particular. I found

:58:05.:58:17.

some rate letters from constituents, or famously a gentleman who once

:58:18.:58:22.

wrote to me, after a media appearance, telling me that

:58:23.:58:25.

unfortunately my top was too low, which was a particularly helpful

:58:26.:58:31.

letter! Fashion advice! From angry of Tunbridge Wells! Next time I will

:58:32.:58:39.

have to talk about the style of writing, I am always fascinated by

:58:40.:58:42.

the way that people write these letters. Thank you for coming in.

:58:43.:58:44.

There's just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz.

:58:45.:58:47.

The question was - what is Nigel Farage

:58:48.:58:49.

a) Advising Nicola Sturgeon over Scottish Indepedence?

:58:50.:58:52.

b) Splitting California into East California

:58:53.:58:55.

c) Helping Catalonia to break from Spain?

:58:56.:59:00.

Or d) working with the Dalai Lama to have more autonomy for Tibet?

:59:01.:59:03.

I think it might be the Catalunian option. And what do you think? Anger

:59:04.:59:18.

to go with California, because Nigel Farage seems to be obsessed with

:59:19.:59:21.

America. And you would be right! California it is! You win the prize!

:59:22.:59:24.

I'll be here at noon tomorrow with all the big

:59:25.:59:32.

Do join me then. Bye-bye.

:59:33.:59:35.

Jo Coburn with the latest political news, interviews and debate.

Labour's Alison McGovern and Mark Field from the Conservatives keep Jo company throughout the programme and look at Theresa May's meeting with Nicola Sturgeon, amid calls for a second independence referendum.

Author David Goodhart discusses why he thinks Britain voted to leave the EU.


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