27/03/2017 Daily Politics


27/03/2017

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Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics at the start

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of what promises to be an historic week as Britain begins

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So what future awaits, both at home and abroad?

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One of Theresa May's first acts as Prime Minister was to meet

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Scotland's First Minister to try and agree a common

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They meet again later today but, as the relationship faces strain,

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Should Britain come out of the European customs union?

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Theresa May says she wants to be able to strike trade deals

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but could be open to some sort of associate membership.

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Does Brexit mean time is up for the so-called

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Journalist David Goodhart offers some advice for his fellow liberals.

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And, political history is often made after an exchange of letters.

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As Britain prepares to write to the EU we take a look at some

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All that in the next hour and with us for the whole

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of the programme today, the Conservative MP, Mark Field,

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First, the Prime Minister is in Scotland and will hold talks

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with First Minister Nicola Sturgeon this afternoon ahead

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of the triggering of Article 50 later this week.

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It's the first time the two have met since Ms Sturgeon

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announced plans for a second referendum on independence.

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The Prime Minister will use a speech in the next hour to say she wants

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to strengthen the UK rather than allow ties to become

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Our Scotland correspondent James Shaw is in Glasgow.

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What's the reception going to be like this time? And in fact,

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relations between the two women? It's going to be a very interesting

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meeting, I think, isn't it this afternoon? Perhaps one metric we

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would like at is how long will the meeting take? Because we know that

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they have totally different agendas. On the one hand we're going to hear

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Theresa May talking about strengthening the United Kingdom,

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bringing the Four Nations together to become a force in the wider world

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and Ond, we know that Nicola Sturgeon wants to talk about a

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second independence referendum. There will be a debate in the

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Scottish Parliament tomorrow on exactly that subject and Theresa May

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has said that is not on the table at the moment. She won't talk about a

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second independence referendum. So how long will the talks actually go

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on for? Yes, it could be a very short meeting and a frosty one

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between the two of them if neither is prepared to give any ground. Do

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we know on the logistics front is there going to be a handshake

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outside? Are they going to have joint press conferences? We don't

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know those details as yet. I think this has been set-up somewhat at

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last minute. So in fact the arrangements still seem to be

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underway. Earlier on this way this morning. Perhaps one thing they

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might be able to talk about constructively is the repatriation

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of powers from Brussels when Brexit happens. We know that Nicola

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Sturgeon would like to see powers over agriculture and fisheries

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coming back to Scotland and Theresa May might be willing to talk about

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that. Not that she will make any specific commitments just now, but

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it's something that is likely at least they will be able to discuss

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that. James, Shaw, thank you. Joining me now is the SNP's Europe

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spokesman, Stephen Gethins. Welcome back to the Daily Politics.

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Thank you. Picking up on James Shaw's point about the repatriation

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of powers on fishing and farming. Were that to happen, would that

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satisfy you and your colleagues in the SNP and would there be no need

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for a second independence referendum? Well, the powers that

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the Scottish Government were looking for were set out before Chris time

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when the First Minister set out a compromise dealment we are 48 hours

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before the triggering of Article 50. It is good that the Prime Minister

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is travelling to Scotland, it always is, of course, but it is pretty last

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minute given that they have had the compromise deal since before

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Christmas which set out some of the powers the Scottish Government were

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looking for to make the compromise work. If she offers the powers would

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you call off a second independence referendum? Amber Rudd and the Home

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Secretary said we wouldn't be getting some powers. It will be

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interesting to see if there has been a U-turn. The powers would have to

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be substantial. The answer is yes, if they are substantial? The

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compromise deal the Scottish Government have set out and they

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said they will put the independence referendum to one side if the

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compromise was met. The ball is firmly in the UK Government's court

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especially since that document was more detailed than anything the UK

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Government published so far. . That document will have been read by the

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Prime Minister and her Government ministers, I'm sure it has, and they

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have had time to look at it. Yes. And if there is a compromise, as you

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say, if you don't get everything that you ask for, but you get some

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of what you asked for, on important areas like fishing and farming,

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would that be enough to say there won't be a second independence

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referendum? Well, the First Minister has been very clear, if there is a

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compromise they could put the referendum for a period of time to

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one side and we can try and make that compromise work. However, we

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are in a stage where just 48 hours beforehand, they have had the

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document for three mounts months. You have made that point? I'm not

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optimistic. But I hope I will be proved wrong. She has called your

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bluff. She said no to a second independence referendum now? She has

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clearly called the bluff of her Conservative colleagues as well.

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Ruth Davidson said she should not stand in the way of a second

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referendum. It also said that it would do something about a second

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independence referendum if there was an overwhelming support for it. Can

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you give me an example of a poll that shows a majority of the

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Scottish people agree with you that there should be another referendum

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before March 2019? There is only one way to find out what the will of the

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people is. The Scottish Government was elected on more votes than any

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Government has been elected in a constituency... That's not my

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question. I want a poll on the basis of basis of what you promised as a

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party. It was the SNP who said it was a once-in-a-lifetime poll. A few

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of them, you know, look at the Herald, 56% oppose a pre-Brexit

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referendum. If you look at the Scottish Daily Mail, 46% oppose a

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pre-Brexit referendum. There isn't within, is there? There isn't a poll

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that backs up your claim? You're looking at opinion polls there. The

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Scottish Government was lcted on a manifesto commitment. Now, here at

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Westminster, we've got a Government that is having great difficulty

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keeping to any of its manifesto commitments at the moment, be it the

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single market, be it over national insurance, you know, manifesto

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commitments are there to be tan serious will you and that's what the

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First Minister is doing and it is interesting that the Scottish

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Government was elected on an increased share of the vote, 47%,

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compared to 36% for the Tories and getting us into the mess that we're

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in at the moment. What's the point of Theresa May going to visit Nicola

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Sturgeon if she hasn't got anything to say? If the implication from

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Number Ten it will be a short meeting. She rejected this idea of a

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second independence referendum. It isn't exactly a charm offensive, is

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it? On the contrary. I think Theresa May made it plain the precious union

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is close to her heart. She doesn't like the idea of playing games with

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politics and I don't think she would have been there had it not been for

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Nicola Sturgeon bouncing the British Government only two weeks ago into

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this idea there should be another referendum. It was in the manifesto.

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Well, I think, it is interesting. One thing to watch for Theresa May

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she is, there are a lot of politicians who try and per port

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them to be manikelean. By going today, she is going to say, "Right,

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come on, you tell us what you'd like to see in this Brexit." She had the

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document for months! It is not about having the documentment two weeks

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ago, Nicola Sturgeon bounced us all into the idea. What was the

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surprise? What was the surprise? There was a great surprise. It was

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in the manifesto. Did you not read it? It is nothing to do with reading

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manifestos. We got through a Brexit Bill that had gone through the UK

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Parliament, both Houses of Parliament, at which point we were

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about to trigger Brexit, it might have well happened had it not been

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for Nicola Sturgeon playing politics. What Theresa May is going

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to do is say, "Right, you tell us what you'd like. Are you just

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playing politics? Or can we add something substantive into that

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Brexit letter?" Is Labour's voice clear on this issue or are you just

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spectators? Labour's voice has been clear. What is it? About protecting

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our constituents jobs and for me personally that means the customs

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union and the single market and I have got to be honest, I disagree

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with Mark about this idea of Theresa May as a clever tactician because

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she... I was saying she was authentic about where she stands on

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the union. So where she stands on the United Kingdom might be quite

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clear, but what she is doing is effectively cow to youing to Ukip

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which caused the SNP to react in the way they have. We are caught between

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two nationalisms, neither of which is good for our country. What's

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Labour's position on a second independence referendum. Jeremy

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Corbyn said it would be fine for the SNP to hold a second referendum? I'm

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with Kezia Dugdale on this. And she is the leader of Scottish Labour?

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Who said that Scottish people don't want one. So Jeremy Corbyn was

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wrong? Look, in the end, it is up to the Scottish people to decide, but

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absolutely clearly, Scottish people don't want another referendum. It

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was divisive. We experienced that division of our country during the

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EU referendum and stirred up in certain parts, there was a lot of

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ill feeling in both of those referendums and I don't think we

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want to go back there at a time when people are worrying about their

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jobs, when wages haven't gone up, these are the issues that politics

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should be deciding over, not stirring up division. I agree with

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Alison. What this realistically means is wait until the next

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Holyrood electionsment if there is a manifesto commitment after then to

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go for a further referendum, then fine, the Scottish people will have

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spoken. That's after 2021. I am know not sure what you have got against

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manifesto commitments. I'm stonished that you're telling us that the UK

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Government was so unprepared, given that this was in the manifesto, this

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was a compromise, this tripped up Theresa May's Article 50 process.

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That's an astonishing thing. Look, this shouldn't have come as a

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surprise. Can I just say, Stephen, isn't your whole argument for a

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pre-Brexit referendum based on a false assumption? Namely that you

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could leave the UK, and stay in the EU which is not guaranteed in fact,

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it is very unlikely to happen. Have you spoken to any Spanish

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politicians recently? A member was on BBC Scotland last week talking

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about it. That's a false assumption that you can leave the UK and stay

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in the EU... Look, Jo, on that question, I'd be glad to. Scotland

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is a country that's been a member of the European Union for 40 years. It

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has met the rules that you need to meet. It is a country whereby I've

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EU rights. We are net contributors to the European Union... You will

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have to join the queue like any new independent country? There is no

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such thing as a queuement Turkey joined the queue before half of the

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current members ever did. There is no such thing as a queue.

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Scotland... Who has told you in the EU that a promise that Scotland

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would automatically remain a member of the EU? Look, Juncker, Michael

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Martin, they have said that Scotland's voice needs to be

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listened to. That's not the same, is it? Scotland's voice needs to be

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listened to. OK. Thank you. I'm so unused to politicians stopping

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immediately when I say that. Stephen Gethins, thank you very much. You'll

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get him back. Of course! Now, it's time for our daily quiz.

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As if helping to take Britain out of the European Union wasn't enough,

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Nigel Farage and Aaron Banks, the self-styled "bad boys

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of Brexit", have set their sights on assisting another major

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constitutional overhaul. A) Advising Nicola Sturgeon over

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Scottish indepedence? B) Splitting California

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into East California C) Helping Catalonia

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to break away from Spain? Or D) Working with the Dalai Lama

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to have more autonomy for Tibet? At the end of the show,

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Mark and Alison will give Don't worry Alison you've got the

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whole show to think about it! BP Theresa May has insisted that Brexit

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offers an opportunity for the UK She maintains that leaving the EU

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isn't just about a new phase of international diplomacy,

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but it would be a "moment of change" to create "a stronger economy

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and fairer society". Now, the other parties are also

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outlining their vision for the Brexit negotiations

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and what the UK might look Both the Lib Dems and the Greens say

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they want a referendum on the terms of the deal the Government agrees

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with the EU and the public Now, this morning, Ukip

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have outlined their That the Government should have full

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control over immigration. That the UK should have full

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control over our waters, And that there should be no

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bill for the divorce. While, finally, the whole

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Brexit process should be By coincidence, Labour also have six

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tests for the Brexit negotiations. The party says the deal should

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ensure a strong and collaborative Perhaps most significantly,

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the party wants a deal with the EU to offer the "exact same benefits"

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the UK has from the single market It demands the "fair

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management of migration", which would mean the end

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of free movement. Labour also say the Brexit deal

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should defend workers' rights and protections

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as well as protecting It should, Labour say,

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be a deal that delivers for all regions and nations

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of the UK. Speaking in London this morning,

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the Shadow Brexit Secretary, Keir Starmer, said his party

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would be holding the Government to account on whether any deal

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with the EU meets Labour's tests. I don't underestimate

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the difficulty of the task the Prime Minister is about

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to embark on. On the contrary, I know it is going

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to be fiendishly difficult. But the stakes are high

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and the Prime Minister's approach Today, I've set out the values that

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should drive Britain's response to Brexit and the tests Labour

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will set for the final Brexit deal. Failure to meet these tests

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will affect how Labour votes Let me be clear - Labour will not

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support a deal that fails to reflect core British values and the six

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tests I've set out. And I'm joined now by

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the Ukip MEP Gerard Batten and the Liberal Democrat MP Alistair

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Carmichael. Welcome to both of you. First of

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all, Mark Field, the Prime Minister will trigger article 50 on Wednesday

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and she has set out what she has called an ambitious timetable to

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negotiate both the divorce settlement and a new trade deal with

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the EU within two years. Do you agree with the Foreign Secretary

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that it would be perfectly OK if the UK exits without a deal? I think

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it's far too early to make a judgment on this. We are at the

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beginning of the process. But she has said very clearly, Theresa May,

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no deal would be better better than a bad deal. And I think that is

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right. Both Houses of Parliament have endorsed that, that is the

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starting point. I think it's fair to say, many of us on all sides of the

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House, in my heart of hearts, I was a Remain person, for emotional and

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geopolitical reasons, I wanted to stay in the European Union, I always

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felt the comic arguments were more balanced. But equally I think we

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have to look at this in a positive and optimistic light. This is high

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diplomacy. This is going to be... High-stakes? There are going to be

:17:56.:18:00.

high-stakes as well. Alison McGovern, Labour wants a

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transitional arrangement, so that there is no cliff edge, as you would

:18:06.:18:11.

call it, if there was no deal. And that would get a bit more time for a

:18:12.:18:15.

final deal. That there will be those who think that is a license for

:18:16.:18:21.

negotiations to drag on because Brexit delayed would-be Brexit

:18:22.:18:26.

denied? I disagree with Mark about what he said about the Prime

:18:27.:18:30.

Minister saying no deal is better than a bad deal. No deal is an

:18:31.:18:35.

incredibly bad deal. WTO terms are not good for our country. I

:18:36.:18:40.

represent people who make things, manufacturing workers. Why wouldn't

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WTO rules be a good thing, in your mind? As David Davies explained,

:18:46.:18:49.

because of the tariffs, which he explained... Which could be quite

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low and agreed fairly easily? Could be, but there's a massive risk

:18:56.:19:01.

implied by that. And these are my constituents' jobs. It is all very

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well to say we must be positive. Sure, but let's not kid ourselves

:19:09.:19:11.

that there is this amazing deal waiting to be had, when all of our

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European partners are waiting for us to show any compromise or approach

:19:16.:19:19.

of working together with them, which so far the British government hasn't

:19:20.:19:26.

done. We've been too busy in my view kowtowing to, I'm afraid, the Ukip

:19:27.:19:31.

view of the world not enough offering, as Keir Starmer said,

:19:32.:19:35.

cooperation. The reason why a transitional deal is important is

:19:36.:19:38.

because it will keep business going, it will keep people in employment. A

:19:39.:19:42.

deal could take a long time, up to a decade, so we must make sure that we

:19:43.:19:48.

have provided a low-risk environment for business to get on with its job.

:19:49.:19:51.

Today, your party has said that Brexit should be done and dusted

:19:52.:19:56.

completely by the end of 2019. But we are talking about unpicking 40 or

:19:57.:20:03.

so years of treaties and agreements that were covering thousands of

:20:04.:20:07.

different areas - aviation, medical research, university grants... Isn't

:20:08.:20:13.

the reality, the way that Alison McGovern and Mark Field have

:20:14.:20:16.

described it, that we're going to be half in the EU and half out for many

:20:17.:20:21.

more years? What Ukip is saying is that we wouldn't go down the article

:20:22.:20:25.

50 road anyway. If we try to renegotiate every piece of 170,000

:20:26.:20:30.

bits of legislation, we would be here till kingdom come. Let me

:20:31.:20:34.

explain what we should do. Our tests are, for the Government Ahzeemah

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they have said they are taking this route, what we would do, if we were

:20:39.:20:45.

into control, would be to repeal the European Communities Act 1972, as a

:20:46.:20:50.

first step, not a last step, and then we would put ourselves in

:20:51.:20:54.

control of the process. So we would in effect still be part of the EU?

:20:55.:20:58.

No. We would say that we are no longer members of the EU under our

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law. We would take emergency action on trade, immigration... What would

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that do to the economy in that instance? Well, what you could do in

:21:07.:21:12.

an afternoon, not two years, is to say to the European Union, we want

:21:13.:21:16.

to continue in tariff free trade, and so do you because it is in your

:21:17.:21:20.

interest. You can have three of your four freedoms, goods, services and

:21:21.:21:25.

capital, but not people. Is Mrs Merkel going to say to the German,

:21:26.:21:29.

new fracture is, we have got to put tariffs on imports to the UK?

:21:30.:21:34.

Alistair Carmichael, what is your response? This is just in Lala land.

:21:35.:21:41.

In one afternoon, Ukip are going to live a farmers and fishermen in my

:21:42.:21:46.

constituency paying tariffs of up to about 20% to export into the single

:21:47.:21:50.

market, which is overwhelmingly our biggest single market. Banks and

:21:51.:21:57.

financial services companies in Mark's constituency, they all depend

:21:58.:22:00.

on being part of the single market to keep their headquarters here. The

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thing is, we are talking about one market, the constituent parts of the

:22:06.:22:10.

EU that remain have got another 26 that they can look to. Do you think

:22:11.:22:14.

it will last longer than two years to get this done and dusted? I think

:22:15.:22:18.

realistically we have to expect that it will. The Government has

:22:19.:22:23.

absolutely no idea... If that is the case, that it will take longer than

:22:24.:22:27.

two years, and if Alison McGovern is right that there could be all sorts

:22:28.:22:30.

of difficulties along the way, wouldn't it be better to cut and run

:22:31.:22:34.

now? You see, I would not start from here anyway. Sure, but if we enter

:22:35.:22:40.

into... What you're talking about is how to make a bad situation and make

:22:41.:22:47.

it worse. Or even make it, the worst possible situation. We've got to try

:22:48.:22:51.

and negotiate the best deal we possibly can, we've got to look at

:22:52.:22:55.

the future interest of our industries and jobs right across the

:22:56.:22:59.

United Kingdom. But just pretending that context problems have some

:23:00.:23:04.

simple solution that you can fix in an afternoon, almost beggars belief.

:23:05.:23:08.

It cannot be as easy as you have said, otherwise they would be

:23:09.:23:13.

looking at it. They don't want to leave anyway, Mrs May does not want

:23:14.:23:17.

to leave. It is all about delay and delay. All of this stuff about

:23:18.:23:21.

tariffs, it's a two-way street. They sell us far more than we sell them.

:23:22.:23:26.

Why would they want to put tariffs on? Let's talk about the tariffs.

:23:27.:23:31.

Let's talk about the deal that can be done. Labour say they want the

:23:32.:23:39.

exact same benefits as we currently have as members of the single market

:23:40.:23:44.

and the customs union - how is that possible, to have the exact same

:23:45.:23:47.

benefits? I think Keir Starmer is setting the right test. If that is a

:23:48.:23:52.

test, then the UK is probably going to fail it? It's the right test

:23:53.:23:57.

because the single market matters to us all. That characterisation, that

:23:58.:24:02.

we make stuff here and we trade it with people who make stuff in other

:24:03.:24:06.

countries, that's not how manufacturing works these days. We

:24:07.:24:09.

have got high value chains with goods made across borders, not

:24:10.:24:13.

within borders. The idea that you could sort out customs arrangements

:24:14.:24:17.

for high-value manufacturing like that in an afternoon, that is an

:24:18.:24:20.

insult to my constituents and their jobs. And I would ask you, next time

:24:21.:24:25.

you come up with nonsense like that, to think about the impact of that on

:24:26.:24:30.

people who work in my constituency, who make goods across borders, not

:24:31.:24:34.

within them, and need a much better attitude from the British

:24:35.:24:37.

government. What happens if we haven't got an arrangement which is

:24:38.:24:41.

agreed with the EU, when goods are going to be exported into the EU and

:24:42.:24:45.

they want to have custom officials at the borders to check the

:24:46.:24:48.

standards, the regulations of those goods, and maybe the French official

:24:49.:24:53.

only rocks up on a Monday and Tuesday, and you arrive on a

:24:54.:24:56.

Wednesday, what will that do to business? First of all, if they have

:24:57.:25:00.

declined our offer of tariff free trade... I'm not talking about

:25:01.:25:04.

tariffs, I'm going on Alison McGovern's point, which is the

:25:05.:25:10.

nontariff barriers, the things like the standardisation that currently

:25:11.:25:13.

exists as part of the EU, how would you deal with that? Part of the

:25:14.:25:17.

offer that we can make is that we continue on exactly the same terms

:25:18.:25:21.

regarding trade. If they refuse that, and we go on WTO, then we

:25:22.:25:26.

would be in the same position as China, Canada, Australia, New

:25:27.:25:29.

Zealand and the other countries that import and export with the European

:25:30.:25:32.

Union. So we will be in a worse position than we are at the moment.

:25:33.:25:37.

The biggest traders with the EU are countries like China... You're

:25:38.:25:43.

trying to say that you will put us in a worse position than the one we

:25:44.:25:47.

are in at the moment as part of the single market is. That's what

:25:48.:25:50.

matters. Let me just come back to this, Mark Field, about the exact

:25:51.:25:56.

same benefits. Because Labour have made this statement today but David

:25:57.:26:00.

Davis made a similar statement, when he said, I want a deal for

:26:01.:26:03.

frictionless trade, Theresa May said those words, and... It is a nearly

:26:04.:26:09.

impossible task, isn't it? No, in some sectors, that will work. When

:26:10.:26:14.

Theresa May spoke about the idea of no deal, it was to get a sense of

:26:15.:26:18.

clarity and certainty, that that is the baseline. Obviously, there are

:26:19.:26:23.

going to be sectors and parts of the colour me where we will be expecting

:26:24.:26:27.

to get considerably more. I think what is interesting, and it is

:26:28.:26:30.

something which perhaps my Brexiteer friends in the Tory party do not

:26:31.:26:34.

want to hear too much of, but it is, taking all of this legislation onto

:26:35.:26:39.

the British statute book, I bet a minuscule ocean of that will have

:26:40.:26:42.

been appealed within ten years. In other words, we're going to be

:26:43.:26:46.

taking on quite a lot of that legislation, not least because a lot

:26:47.:26:49.

of it we were at the forefront of putting into play. And also, and

:26:50.:26:53.

this is why this will be a long-term negotiation... Be on the two years?

:26:54.:26:59.

No, we must be out within the two years because we do not want the

:27:00.:27:03.

next general election to be a proxy second referendum. But we have all

:27:04.:27:06.

just been saying that it will take longer than that? No, we will be

:27:07.:27:10.

out. But there will be a lemons which will take longer. And I have a

:27:11.:27:15.

strong sense that there will be at a killer sectors where it will be in

:27:16.:27:22.

Britain's interest, and in the EU's interests, on biotechnology and

:27:23.:27:24.

pharmaceutical is, that we will be at the table, helping to look at the

:27:25.:27:29.

regulations which can then be incorporated straight into British

:27:30.:27:33.

law. I think that will get around many of the concerns that you have.

:27:34.:27:37.

But we are where we are, let's make it work. Alistair Carmichael, you

:27:38.:27:42.

want another referendum? I want a referendum on the deal when it is

:27:43.:27:45.

done. But that is really just another referendum? It is not, it is

:27:46.:27:51.

on the deal. We have had a referendum which said, we are

:27:52.:27:54.

leaving. It gave us a departure, it did not give us a destination. David

:27:55.:27:59.

Davis, not that long ago, was proposing exactly the same sort of

:28:00.:28:03.

thing. So just tell me, for the Liberal Democrats, if you say it is

:28:04.:28:07.

on the final deal, weaving the public the final say, in your mind,

:28:08.:28:11.

as a party, what is the ideal relationship with the EU

:28:12.:28:15.

post-Brexit, if, as you say, it is only on the final deal, you have

:28:16.:28:18.

accepted that Brexit is going to happen, how will it be any

:28:19.:28:24.

different? What we are prioritising above everything else is mentorship

:28:25.:28:29.

of the single market because that is where our economic interests lie,

:28:30.:28:32.

especially in the globalised economy. We can't turn the clock

:28:33.:28:36.

back to 1950. You have to be honest with people and say, that does mean

:28:37.:28:39.

that there have got to be compromises about the way in which

:28:40.:28:44.

people move across the boundaries. For Gerard Batten to say, you just

:28:45.:28:48.

can't have that, that's how you end up in the territory where you get no

:28:49.:28:52.

deal. You lost your only MP at the end of last week, or over the

:28:53.:28:55.

weekend, and your only elected voice in Parliament, so Ukip MEPs will

:28:56.:29:02.

soon be made redundant, how do you expect to influence Brexit? You say

:29:03.:29:06.

that, the important vote on the final deal will not be in

:29:07.:29:09.

Westminster, it will be the one in Brussels, because they will have the

:29:10.:29:13.

first vote, and they can reject it, in which case, we are all back to

:29:14.:29:16.

the drawing board in another two years' time. And that is a good

:29:17.:29:19.

point at which to stop this discussion.

:29:20.:29:21.

We know that the Government intends to take us out

:29:22.:29:23.

Theresa May said she was open to some sort of associate arrangement.

:29:24.:29:29.

This is what she had to say in January.

:29:30.:29:46.

I want Britain to be able to negotiate its own trade agreements.

:29:47.:29:51.

But I also want the referee trade with Europe and cross-border trade

:29:52.:29:55.

there to be as frictionless as possible. That means I do not want

:29:56.:29:58.

Britain to be part of the common commercial policy and I do not want

:29:59.:30:01.

us to be bound by the common external tariff. These are the

:30:02.:30:06.

elements of the customs union that prevent us from striking our own

:30:07.:30:09.

competence of trade agreements with other countries. But I do want us to

:30:10.:30:14.

have a customs agreement with the EU. Whether that means we must reach

:30:15.:30:22.

a completely new customs agreement, become an associate member of the

:30:23.:30:26.

customs union in some way, or remain a signatory to some elements of it,

:30:27.:30:28.

I hold no preconceived position. We're joined now by Henry Newman

:30:29.:30:31.

of the Open Europe think-tank which has launched a report today

:30:32.:30:34.

calling for the UK to pursue a fully independent trade policy

:30:35.:30:37.

outside the customs union. Welcome to the programme just for

:30:38.:30:44.

you, Theresa May does not go far enough, does she? Her clean break

:30:45.:30:48.

isn't hard enough for you, you don't even want associate membership with

:30:49.:30:59.

the customs union, is that correct? We're convinced having look at the

:31:00.:31:02.

evidence that we need to be clear that we need to get out of the

:31:03.:31:06.

customs union entirely. Right. That's the best way to maximise the

:31:07.:31:08.

opportunities from leaving the European Union. Under your plan, we

:31:09.:31:12.

leave the customs union with the rest in 2019? Yes. There is a

:31:13.:31:16.

possibility of a transition and that's a separate question. We

:31:17.:31:19.

should be out of the customs union enturl. No half-way in, half-way

:31:20.:31:25.

out. No deal. No Turkish-style deal. Is there a logic to that plan? There

:31:26.:31:30.

is a logic to all the plans. But it is too soon to say we should write

:31:31.:31:34.

off having at least the short-term being full members of the customs

:31:35.:31:37.

union and indeed then aspiring to the sort of arrangement that Theresa

:31:38.:31:40.

May made clear in that clip we have just heard. The reason I say that,

:31:41.:31:45.

actually a transition deal will be incredibly difficult to negotiate

:31:46.:31:48.

over the short time period and it may well be that we need to have an

:31:49.:31:53.

off-the-shelf option. The obvious off-the-shelf option doesn't apply

:31:54.:31:56.

to services in the way it does to goods, but it is to have a customs

:31:57.:31:59.

union arrangement and the thing about the customs union above all,

:32:00.:32:02.

you know, it could be very, very difficult along the lines that Jo

:32:03.:32:06.

pointed out earlier on in the programme, if you have a situation

:32:07.:32:10.

where there is a concern about the country of origin, on goods, this

:32:11.:32:14.

could be pretty nightmarish for many of our exporters if we don't get it

:32:15.:32:17.

right which is one of the reasons that Theresa May has left open the

:32:18.:32:20.

option as part of the negotiation. Right, hang on. Hang on. There is

:32:21.:32:25.

one thing on trade deals we need to get. Politicians love trade deals.

:32:26.:32:30.

Bureaucrats love them and civil servants love them. Get on and do

:32:31.:32:33.

trade and one of the things we have seen with the Trump administration

:32:34.:32:37.

in many ways has been the idea of a can do attitude. You can't do the

:32:38.:32:46.

trade deals until we've left the EU? There is never a country that we

:32:47.:32:51.

haven't done a trade deal with. Half in, half out, what's wrong with

:32:52.:32:57.

that? We all it the worst of all worlds. Why? You are unable to take

:32:58.:33:02.

the opportunities that leaving would entail. It is not just about signing

:33:03.:33:05.

trade deals. They are important, but using them can be too bureaucratic

:33:06.:33:09.

for business. If you have leave, you are able to reset your tariffs

:33:10.:33:13.

externally with the WTO, we would be able to lower all our tariffs, not

:33:14.:33:17.

just the tariffs through a trade deal. We are concerned that a second

:33:18.:33:26.

torial trade deal would be legally challengeable. Happens if you come

:33:27.:33:31.

out of the customs union in the way you're describing? Would there have

:33:32.:33:34.

to be any agreement between the EU and the UK? Well, let's say first of

:33:35.:33:38.

all there will be some costs of us leaving. How big are the cost? There

:33:39.:33:42.

was a leaked report over the weekend reported by the Sunday Times which

:33:43.:33:47.

points at costs up to 24%. Those figures were produced as we see it

:33:48.:33:50.

by the Treasury before the referendum last year. But if they

:33:51.:33:54.

are lower at 20%, they are huge costs? It is lookly to be very low.

:33:55.:34:01.

Can I say one thing? We do a great deal of trade with countries which

:34:02.:34:06.

we are not in a Free Trade Agreement with, let alone the customs union.

:34:07.:34:13.

The single biggest trading partner the UK is the US. The problem is who

:34:14.:34:17.

this hits and where? We already know that the parts of the country that

:34:18.:34:22.

voted leave. Leave in the north of England will be hardest hit by

:34:23.:34:26.

Brexit. Why? Because it is those areas that are dependant on

:34:27.:34:29.

manufacturing. Now people will tell you that manufacturing is a

:34:30.:34:33.

relatively small part of our economy, but actually a lot of the

:34:34.:34:36.

service sector in the north as well depends on the manufacturing

:34:37.:34:41.

industry to sell into it. So what I regret very much is this idea that

:34:42.:34:47.

what's good for Britain is good for everybody, everywhere because people

:34:48.:34:50.

aren't thinking through the fact that saying yes, there will be costs

:34:51.:34:55.

to this as though there will be costs, but on the whole, people will

:34:56.:35:01.

gain. That's not true. Some people will bear the burden and others will

:35:02.:35:04.

not. So that's not fair. You agree there will be costs. You haven't

:35:05.:35:07.

agreed what the costs will be, but you don't agree with 24%? Do you

:35:08.:35:13.

accept outside the customs union will mean more paperwork for

:35:14.:35:16.

exporters like British manufacturers. Possibly. So it won't

:35:17.:35:21.

be frictionless. So Theresa May isn't in your mind going to have

:35:22.:35:25.

frictionless trade? Not perfectly frictionless trade. Let's take a

:35:26.:35:29.

step back and look broadly. We have efficient trade with our non-EU

:35:30.:35:34.

partners. We are starting from a very positive base. Sure. We need to

:35:35.:35:40.

make sure our systems are as good as they possibly can be so goods can

:35:41.:35:45.

travel freely. I'm sure everybody in Parliament and ministers will be

:35:46.:35:48.

paying attention to this. You have conceded that there are going to be

:35:49.:35:51.

costs. That it won't be frictionless. You have said there

:35:52.:35:54.

will be opportunities and there shouldn't be a second torial deal

:35:55.:35:59.

for the car industry and people working in various manufacturing

:36:00.:36:03.

outputs in your constituency. Leaving the customs union will

:36:04.:36:06.

challenge companies with complex supply chains is what you say in

:36:07.:36:09.

your report? Yes. You are talking about the car industry being hit

:36:10.:36:13.

which is worth ?72 billion a year and employs 170,000 people. Is it

:36:14.:36:18.

worth it? I think to take a step back again, the decision was taken

:36:19.:36:21.

to leave the EU. If we're going to leave the EU, we need to be clear

:36:22.:36:24.

what that actually means. You think staying in the single market,

:36:25.:36:28.

staying in the customs union is the same as not having left in the first

:36:29.:36:34.

place. I accept there will be costs. Even Nigel Farage said we could be

:36:35.:36:39.

like Norway in the mid-. Referendum. That's outside the customs union. So

:36:40.:36:45.

he said we could be like... Turkey. And these countries, you know,

:36:46.:36:50.

operate within, they have a way of operating with the single market

:36:51.:36:55.

which I'm assuming you would call half in, half out and that's the

:36:56.:37:01.

worst of all possible worlds. People were told trading arrangements would

:37:02.:37:04.

be Bradley the same. Here we are afterwards saying we need to rip it

:37:05.:37:09.

all up and start again. I'm not saying that at all. And go after

:37:10.:37:18.

some notions... So the EU has good customs co-operation with

:37:19.:37:22.

Switzerland and Canada. The new Canada trade deal... But that was

:37:23.:37:25.

with the EU. The EU already has systems in place. There are

:37:26.:37:33.

precedents. I'm optimistic this can be achieved. When we look then at

:37:34.:37:37.

Northern Ireland, do you also accept there would have to be a customs

:37:38.:37:41.

border? There would have to be some degree of border. We think that

:37:42.:37:45.

border could be minimised. There will have to be a border for goods.

:37:46.:37:49.

That's not the same as a border for people. We see don't see any reason

:37:50.:37:55.

why the free movement of people that long predates European or Irish

:37:56.:38:00.

succession. One of the reasons that Ireland joined in 1973 at the height

:38:01.:38:06.

of the troubles was a recognition of the Inter dependence between the two

:38:07.:38:09.

economies. A special deal will have to be done. We're going to have to

:38:10.:38:11.

stop it there. So, it's going to be a big week

:38:12.:38:15.

here in Westminster. Today marks the deadline

:38:16.:38:17.

for a new Northern Ireland power-sharing executive

:38:18.:38:21.

to be formed. The prospect of a second Scottish

:38:22.:38:24.

independence referendum could be back on the cards tomorrow

:38:25.:38:27.

as members of the Scottish Parliament vote on a new

:38:28.:38:29.

independence referendum. The debate was suspended last

:38:30.:38:32.

Wednesday in the wake The Prime Minister will trigger

:38:33.:38:34.

Article 50 on Wednesday by sending a letter to the European Council

:38:35.:38:43.

formally declaring the UK's intention to leave

:38:44.:38:45.

the European Union. The Government is expected

:38:46.:38:48.

publish a White Paper on the Great Repeal Bill

:38:49.:38:52.

on Thursday, laying out a plan to ensure EU law no longer applies

:38:53.:38:57.

in the UK after Brexit. The House of Commons will rise

:38:58.:39:03.

on Thursday for Easter recess, but the House of Lords will continue

:39:04.:39:06.

working until next week. On Friday, the NHS will set

:39:07.:39:12.

out its plans for the next And the Green Party will begin

:39:13.:39:15.

their Spring Conference in Liverpool, which will continue

:39:16.:39:18.

over the weekend. We're joined now by Tom Newton Dunn

:39:19.:39:20.

of The Sun and by the political Welcome both of you. Tom, we have

:39:21.:39:28.

been talking about it, actually, Northern Ireland. If a new power

:39:29.:39:32.

sharing deal is not agreed today, which looks highly likely, what

:39:33.:39:36.

happens next? New elections? No, I don't think so. I think the honest

:39:37.:39:40.

answer is not very much at all which is rather common for Northern

:39:41.:39:44.

Ireland politics. Not a load happens quickly. As I understand it James

:39:45.:39:49.

Brokenshire won't go straight to new elections which is within his right

:39:50.:39:53.

to order. The law actually says there has to be new elections within

:39:54.:39:57.

a reasonable period of time. So I'm told he will use that reasonable

:39:58.:40:01.

period of time to carry on talking to try and create a deal. It appears

:40:02.:40:06.

the Government's tactics in this is to try and deny Sinn Fein the oxygen

:40:07.:40:12.

of drama and mellow drama even that they are trying to create with

:40:13.:40:16.

Brexit and Article 50 this week and it is in Sinn Fein's interests who

:40:17.:40:20.

want a united Ireland to try and create the impression so the

:40:21.:40:23.

Government say, that everything is chaotic and everything is up in the

:40:24.:40:28.

air and they need to start considering dramatic new

:40:29.:40:30.

constitutional arrangements such as a referendum on uniting Ireland. The

:40:31.:40:33.

Government will do everything they can to avoid that. Jane, tomorrow

:40:34.:40:38.

SNPs will vote on a motion allowing the Scottish Government to open

:40:39.:40:40.

negotiations with Westminster on the timing of a fresh independence

:40:41.:40:44.

referendum. It's going to pass, do you think? It is. I mean the SNP

:40:45.:40:47.

together with the Greens have a majority over the other parties,

:40:48.:40:51.

Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems. Obviously this debate was happening

:40:52.:40:54.

last Wednesday when the terror attack happened. It has been delayed

:40:55.:41:01.

until tomorrow. And it is a fore gone conclusion, I think it will

:41:02.:41:04.

pass and the pressure is on for Wednesday and Theresa May. Not the

:41:05.:41:08.

best timing for the Prime Minister, bearing in mind that's the day she

:41:09.:41:11.

is triggering Article 50? Theresa May loves to be in control and loves

:41:12.:41:15.

having everything her own way. When this happened two weeks ago, when

:41:16.:41:19.

Nicola Sturgeon announced she wanted a second referendum, this completely

:41:20.:41:23.

blew Theresa May off course and it is right on the eve of her

:41:24.:41:27.

triggering Article 50. She is not going to like it, but she has to

:41:28.:41:34.

stand her ground. Time will be taken up, of course, with her writing that

:41:35.:41:39.

letter to the EU council. Will we learn anything new in the letter?

:41:40.:41:42.

Will the EU learn anything new bearing in mind she set out what she

:41:43.:41:47.

wants to achieve in the Lancaster House speech? I'm told there might

:41:48.:41:52.

be a few bits new. Some new language certainly and perhaps a little bit

:41:53.:41:56.

more detail on what the Government would like to see from Brexit, but

:41:57.:42:01.

substantially, no. We have to the greater part the strategy as laid

:42:02.:42:07.

out in Lancaster House on single market, customs union, security

:42:08.:42:10.

co-operation, etcetera. What will be interesting is, I think, actually

:42:11.:42:15.

how the EU respondment far less so the actual letter albeit, its

:42:16.:42:20.

historical importance. From 12.30 onwards on Wednesday, the ball goes

:42:21.:42:24.

from London to Brussels and it's the moment of maximum danger really for

:42:25.:42:27.

Theresa May as you know, you and Jane have been saying, she likes

:42:28.:42:30.

control. On Wednesday, she loses control. Suddenly, it is for someone

:42:31.:42:35.

else to respond to all this and the Government is therefore hostage or a

:42:36.:42:38.

victim potentially of what the rest of the 27 then come up and have to

:42:39.:42:43.

respond to her. The focus Jane will move on to the Great Repeal Bill

:42:44.:42:48.

which in your mind does that give MPs an opportunity to voice any

:42:49.:42:53.

concerns that they might have or try and oppose the progress of Brexit?

:42:54.:42:58.

Yes. I mean they have, MPs who are against Brexit anyway have been,

:42:59.:43:01.

have had plenty of opportunity and they will take it again on Thursday

:43:02.:43:06.

when the White Paper is published. It is unfortunate that the Henry

:43:07.:43:11.

eighth powers, we talked about control, Theresa May still has

:43:12.:43:15.

control in Parliament. She has these Henry VIII powers that she can take

:43:16.:43:19.

back regulations and laws from Brussels and introduce them into

:43:20.:43:22.

British law. That is where she still has control and there will be a huge

:43:23.:43:26.

fuss over whether that's going to be allowed and whether Theresa May will

:43:27.:43:29.

be allowed to do that. Thank you very much. Have a good week. Thank

:43:30.:43:30.

you. Thank you. Now, we're used to stark

:43:31.:43:36.

divisions in politics. Labour and Conservative,

:43:37.:43:38.

left-wing and right-wing, But with electoral upsets

:43:39.:43:39.

in democracies across the world recently exposing fundamental

:43:40.:43:43.

divides in how people view themselves, is it time

:43:44.:43:45.

for a new way of thinking? The writer David Goodhart thinks

:43:46.:43:47.

he's found the answer. The familiar divide in British

:43:48.:43:49.

politics between left and right has been partly eclipsed in the past

:43:50.:44:07.

generation or so by increasingly significant value divides,

:44:08.:44:12.

between the people that I call the people from anywhere

:44:13.:44:15.

and the people from somewhere. The people from anywhere tend to be

:44:16.:44:19.

highly-educated and mobile, They have achieved identities based

:44:20.:44:23.

on educational and career success, that makes them pretty

:44:24.:44:32.

comfortable, well, anywhere. Somewheres tend to be more rooted,

:44:33.:44:45.

less well-educated. They value familiarity and security,

:44:46.:44:49.

and they have what's called more ascribed identities,

:44:50.:44:54.

that means identities based more around groups and places,

:44:55.:44:58.

which often means that their sense of themselves can be more easily

:44:59.:45:03.

discomfited by rapid change. 40 years ago, British

:45:04.:45:07.

common sense was basically Then, over the last generation

:45:08.:45:10.

and more, anywhere common We anywheres care about the world

:45:11.:45:15.

but can be blinded by We've often run things

:45:16.:45:24.

in our own interests and called it Take freedom of

:45:25.:45:29.

movement, for example. If you're a commercial lawyer,

:45:30.:45:34.

you can go and work in Paris or Berlin for a couple of years,

:45:35.:45:37.

you're not competing for your job If you work in a food

:45:38.:45:40.

factory, you are. All of this has alienated a lot

:45:41.:45:46.

of people, and I don't mean bigots and xenophobes,

:45:47.:45:49.

I mean people I call decent populists, people who value national

:45:50.:45:51.

sovereignty and are wary Many of them stopped voting

:45:52.:45:53.

in national elections but took their chance in the Brexit

:45:54.:46:02.

referendum to say, enough, your anyway version of openness

:46:03.:46:05.

is not working for us. Not surprisingly, the Leave victory

:46:06.:46:08.

left many anywheres wondering what kind of country

:46:09.:46:11.

they really lived in. Finding a new settlement

:46:12.:46:16.

between the two tribes, one that reconciles anywheres

:46:17.:46:18.

and somewheres into a common national story, is the task for

:46:19.:46:20.

politics for the next generation. What is your remedy for bringing the

:46:21.:46:41.

two sides together? Well, I think the group I call anywheres, the

:46:42.:46:44.

people who have dominated our politics and indeed policy for the

:46:45.:46:49.

last generation and more, need to take more account of the priorities

:46:50.:46:54.

and intuitions of the people I call somewheres, more than 50% of the

:46:55.:47:01.

population. Anywheres are 20% to 25% of the population. Either way, I

:47:02.:47:05.

have invented these labels but I have not invented the box, they are

:47:06.:47:09.

there in the surveys. But how should they take account of it? Well, the

:47:10.:47:18.

Brexit vote represents one shift, it shifts us back in a certain

:47:19.:47:21.

direction, but we don't want to have the instability. If people feel that

:47:22.:47:24.

their voices are not heard in day-to-day politics, then you get

:47:25.:47:32.

these... People lash out, and you might describe at least some of the

:47:33.:47:36.

people who voted Brexit is doing that, frustrated that they felt

:47:37.:47:38.

their voices were not heard in day-to-day politics. In order to

:47:39.:47:42.

overcome that instability, we need to bring those voices into... Turn

:47:43.:47:49.

rolls into responsible politicians. But are you saying the passage of

:47:50.:47:53.

progress should in some way be slowed down, if you look at some of

:47:54.:47:59.

the issues that people tribute to your somewhere thesis, people not

:48:00.:48:02.

feeling part of what's going on in terms of politics, that somehow in

:48:03.:48:06.

terms of globalisation, for instance, that you should slow down

:48:07.:48:10.

the passage of change and time? I think that's a very, very narrow

:48:11.:48:13.

definition of progress. You're implying that what anywheres think

:48:14.:48:18.

is in itself automatically a good thing. But just look at what has

:48:19.:48:22.

happened in the last generation or two, in terms of the policy areas

:48:23.:48:27.

that are so important. The way in which we have massively expanded

:48:28.:48:30.

higher education, and largely ignored, at least until recently,

:48:31.:48:35.

vocational and technical training, closed down all the polytechnics and

:48:36.:48:40.

turned them into universities in 1992. Look at the so-called

:48:41.:48:44.

knowledge economy, the very phrase, it's fine for highly educated

:48:45.:48:48.

people, meanwhile we have acquired this hourglass labour market, and

:48:49.:48:52.

all of those meddling jobs that gave lots of people status and decent

:48:53.:48:56.

income so shrunk. Well, you've been in power under a Tory government and

:48:57.:49:01.

a coalition government, so, to some extent, you are the presenter,

:49:02.:49:04.

representing your constituency, as, no doubt, the anywheres, can you do

:49:05.:49:09.

something about all of this? There was a certain amount of controversy

:49:10.:49:13.

when Theresa May said at the party conference, said that the sense of

:49:14.:49:19.

rootless people and rootless companies, using the international

:49:20.:49:23.

tax system to ensure they did not pay too much tax... Occupy London

:49:24.:49:27.

took place in my constituency five or six years ago, and I remember

:49:28.:49:31.

saying then, it struck me that there were a lot of middle-class,

:49:32.:49:35.

instinctively Tory voting people, who felt the rules of global

:49:36.:49:38.

capitalism were skewed against them. It a slightly prodrug provocative

:49:39.:49:43.

thesis, obviously, but in many ways, I think Theresa May's agenda is a

:49:44.:49:49.

recognition that the whole Tony Blair, a little bit is is over, and

:49:50.:49:53.

there is a sense of... That's the .4 Labour, you have been the losers.

:49:54.:49:58.

Even if the Conservatives, as Mark said, had not taken enough into

:49:59.:50:02.

account the views of those sorts of people, it is Labour that is nowhere

:50:03.:50:06.

in the polls with the answers, it seems? In one sense, David's

:50:07.:50:11.

analysis, I agree about the impact of low wages for a long time.

:50:12.:50:16.

Constituents who voted leave, most of them voted remain but a

:50:17.:50:20.

significant number of them did Vote Leave, and they say things like, to

:50:21.:50:24.

get rid of David Cameron, or to get money for the NHS. People did want

:50:25.:50:28.

to kick back against what they thought was an unfair system. But in

:50:29.:50:32.

another way, I profoundly disagree with this analysis, firstly because

:50:33.:50:36.

it is just mad to separate people into two groups. I'm sure your

:50:37.:50:40.

analysis is not quite as stark as that, but I probably used to count

:50:41.:50:49.

as a somewhere somebody who was born and grew up in my constituency and

:50:50.:50:53.

represent all my family, and then I went to university, I became an

:50:54.:50:56.

anywhere. I would urge you to read my book. Like I say, I did not just

:50:57.:51:06.

invented these categories. They are there in the data. Everybody is an

:51:07.:51:09.

individual and we all have combinations of anywhere and

:51:10.:51:14.

somewhere, and there is a whole group of in between is. Isn't the

:51:15.:51:17.

problem that for far too long, people in politics have gone, but at

:51:18.:51:23.

the data, there is this interesting different groups, let's try and

:51:24.:51:27.

marshal these different groups? Instead of saying, most people are

:51:28.:51:30.

individuals, most people by and large want money in their pocket.

:51:31.:51:35.

Obviously, at people can be donated by people from a certain kind of

:51:36.:51:40.

background, including people from somewhere backgrounds who have been

:51:41.:51:44.

very upwardly mobile. We have national social contracts and we

:51:45.:51:47.

have disregarded them, particularly employers. We had 8000 construction

:51:48.:51:54.

apprenticeships last year. We are meant to be building millions of

:51:55.:51:57.

houses, what has been going on? And on that, we will leave it hanging.

:51:58.:52:01.

In politics, the pen is mightier than the sword.

:52:02.:52:03.

Theresa May certainly thinks so - she says that the letter triggering

:52:04.:52:06.

Article 50 will be "one of the most important documents"

:52:07.:52:08.

Our Ellie takes a look at some of the other contenders for

:52:09.:52:13.

# I'm gonna sit right down and write myself a letter...

:52:14.:52:23.

Theresa May has plenty of practice writing important correspondence.

:52:24.:52:26.

One of her first job as PM was to pen four handwritten letters

:52:27.:52:29.

of last resort to the commanders of Britain's nuclear submarines.

:52:30.:52:31.

We don't know exactly what they say, obviously, but basically,

:52:32.:52:33.

they contain orders on what to do if the Government has

:52:34.:52:36.

been "incapacitated" because Britain has been destroyed.

:52:37.:52:38.

And sticking with nuclear Armageddon, it's those important

:52:39.:52:42.

letters that saved the world during the Cuban missile crisis.

:52:43.:52:45.

The Soviet leader, Nikita Khrushchev, sent

:52:46.:52:48.

a telegram to the US offering to dismantle its Cuban missile bases

:52:49.:52:51.

if President Kennedy lifted its naval blockade

:52:52.:52:54.

on the island and promised not to invade Cuba.

:52:55.:52:58.

Then, he sent a second letter demanding the dismantling

:52:59.:53:02.

President Kennedy agreed publicly to the first letter,

:53:03.:53:07.

As with so many things in this life, less is more.

:53:08.:53:13.

When Labour lost the 2010 election, the then Chief Secretary

:53:14.:53:16.

to the Treasury, Liam Byrne, left a note to his successor that

:53:17.:53:19.

Mr Byrne meant it as a joke, but felt the weight of his words

:53:20.:53:29.

when they were repeatedly used to beat Labour over the head

:53:30.:53:32.

"Dear Chief Secretary, I'm afraid there is no money..."

:53:33.:53:35.

It's more than a decade since Prince Charles' black spider

:53:36.:53:37.

memos, so-called not because they were about creepy

:53:38.:53:40.

crawlies, but because of his handwriting skills.

:53:41.:53:44.

The letters he wrote privately to Labour ministers were published

:53:45.:53:47.

after a series of court cases and concerns by some

:53:48.:53:50.

critics that he was trying to influence government policy -

:53:51.:53:54.

This year sees the 100th anniversary of the Balfour declaration.

:53:55.:53:59.

Boris Johnson showed Israel's Prime Minister,

:54:00.:54:02.

Binyamin Netanyahu, around the room where it was written.

:54:03.:54:05.

The letter was the first significant declaration by a world power

:54:06.:54:08.

in favour of a Jewish national home in Palestine.

:54:09.:54:14.

We're joined now by the historian Kate Williams.

:54:15.:54:19.

Do you agree that the letter that will be sent trigger in Article 50

:54:20.:54:26.

will go down as the greatest in history, as Theresa May implies? I

:54:27.:54:30.

think it certainly will. Whether or not it's the greatest, I think we

:54:31.:54:34.

will see how final it was. A lot of the letters we were talking about in

:54:35.:54:38.

that VT, they change history Mr Love about four declaration, there was no

:54:39.:54:41.

going back after that, there was going to be an independent state for

:54:42.:54:46.

the Jewish people. Whether not Theresa May's letter will be able to

:54:47.:54:51.

be altered, which is of course what the Remains I'd want... But if the

:54:52.:54:56.

Ukip conditions are kept to, then it will be the most historic I think in

:54:57.:55:00.

recent British history. And they are still powerful, letters, aren't

:55:01.:55:06.

they? If you think we are operating in a digital age, politically,

:55:07.:55:13.

letters would still hold that much influence and sway? They do, and

:55:14.:55:16.

it's fascinating to read them. You can read the Kennedy-Khrushchev

:55:17.:55:21.

letters, and it is fascinating to think these two men, with so many

:55:22.:55:25.

lives hanging in the balance, are communicating with each other in

:55:26.:55:28.

this very polite way, dear Mr President... Although we think of

:55:29.:55:32.

the huge networks of power, sometimes it does come down to the

:55:33.:55:35.

communication between two individuals, in that case two men.

:55:36.:55:39.

Do you think letter will go down as one of the most important in

:55:40.:55:42.

history? You have touched on something, we live in this world of

:55:43.:55:46.

tweeting and texting and actually, letters are now few and far between.

:55:47.:55:53.

Can you remember how to write?! Scrawling away, spiderlike! One of

:55:54.:55:56.

the interesting things about history, whether it is political

:55:57.:56:00.

history or whatever, it is going to be so difficult to piece it together

:56:01.:56:04.

in the way that we were able to in the past from those primary sources.

:56:05.:56:08.

So much of it now is now done electronic live. So it will be an

:56:09.:56:11.

important letter from that regard. I have been to the cue archives, which

:56:12.:56:19.

are unbelievable, it is an amazing look back into history. In the

:56:20.:56:23.

future, people will be scouring over tweets and interpreting the language

:56:24.:56:26.

of a particular WhatsApp message or whatever. Food for thought! Letters

:56:27.:56:32.

obviously get people into trouble, and they are written there and

:56:33.:56:37.

remain for ever so. We touched on the Liam Byrne debtor at the time,

:56:38.:56:41.

when he said, there is no money left. It was left as a joke but he

:56:42.:56:46.

has said he regrets writing it! He really does. Sometimes a joke can

:56:47.:56:51.

fall flat! It was pretty disastrous and an easy thing for David Cameron

:56:52.:56:55.

to use in the campaign. I think we know now that all e-mails are not

:56:56.:56:59.

private, any of our e-mails could be used. Of course we saw even texts,

:57:00.:57:05.

with the example of the Surrey sweetheart deal being talked about

:57:06.:57:08.

by Mr Corbyn, for example. But we still sometimes think there is

:57:09.:57:13.

intimacy in a letter, a little note that you leave on the desk after you

:57:14.:57:17.

go, by gentlemen's agreement, which of course was not the case. But

:57:18.:57:25.

there is formality as well. They are intimate, but also terribly

:57:26.:57:29.

official? Yes. And I think they do mean more. For example, the Prince

:57:30.:57:33.

Charles letters, they do mean more than an e-mail because somebody has

:57:34.:57:38.

taken the effort to put pen to paper. I think that even though we

:57:39.:57:44.

are in a digital world, the biggest and most important things

:57:45.:57:47.

politically happen through letters. Any letters that you have written,

:57:48.:57:52.

that you regret? None that I regret. I would take Kate's point on board,

:57:53.:58:00.

some of them you can reread with any mail, which you cannot with a

:58:01.:58:04.

letter. I like the idea of a letter, handwritten in particular. I found

:58:05.:58:17.

some rate letters from constituents, or famously a gentleman who once

:58:18.:58:22.

wrote to me, after a media appearance, telling me that

:58:23.:58:25.

unfortunately my top was too low, which was a particularly helpful

:58:26.:58:31.

letter! Fashion advice! From angry of Tunbridge Wells! Next time I will

:58:32.:58:39.

have to talk about the style of writing, I am always fascinated by

:58:40.:58:42.

the way that people write these letters. Thank you for coming in.

:58:43.:58:44.

There's just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz.

:58:45.:58:47.

The question was - what is Nigel Farage

:58:48.:58:49.

a) Advising Nicola Sturgeon over Scottish Indepedence?

:58:50.:58:52.

b) Splitting California into East California

:58:53.:58:55.

c) Helping Catalonia to break from Spain?

:58:56.:59:00.

Or d) working with the Dalai Lama to have more autonomy for Tibet?

:59:01.:59:03.

I think it might be the Catalunian option. And what do you think? Anger

:59:04.:59:18.

to go with California, because Nigel Farage seems to be obsessed with

:59:19.:59:21.

America. And you would be right! California it is! You win the prize!

:59:22.:59:24.

I'll be here at noon tomorrow with all the big

:59:25.:59:32.

Do join me then. Bye-bye.

:59:33.:59:35.

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